PEDAGOGY

Causation, Counterfactuals, and Critical

Reading in the Active Classroom
Brian Ripley
Mercyhurst College
Identifying causal claims may be second nature to a seasoned scholar,
but the logic of causality is not always so obvious to the undergraduates
in our classrooms. In this article I describe the essential features of a
reading assignment designed to hone critical thinking skills, especially
as they pertain to cause and effect and the associated logic of counter-
factual reasoning. The Critical Reading Exercise (or CRE) is a
brief, highly structured assignment that calls upon the student to read
a scholarly article or book chapter and identify the major thesis and
key causal relationships presented by the author as well as develop a
plausible counterfactual implied by the argument. Among the advan-
tages of the CRE are the incentive it provides to do careful, critical
reading of genuine scholarly work and lay the foundation for fruitful
discussion in an active learning classroom. Common pitfalls associated
with this assignment are also identied. Ultimately the assignment
reects an appropriate way to engage students with both the substance
and the methodological foundation of our discipline.
Keywords: causal reasoning, reading assignments, counterfac-
tuals, pedagogy, social science
Cause and effect relationships are at the heart of social science inquiry. Most of
our research in international relations and comparative politics, regardless of
methodology or theoretical orientation, builds on a foundation of causal claims.
Identifying causal claims is second nature to a seasoned scholar, but the logic of
causality is not always so obvious to the undergraduate in our classrooms. In this
article I describe the essential features of a reading assignment designed to hone
critical thinking skills, especially as they pertain to the logic of cause and effect.
Causation, Counterfactuals, and Critical Thinking
We exist in a period of signicant epistemological diversity in the elds of interna-
tional relations and comparative politics. This has been the condition of the disci-
pline for decades. Nevertheless, it is still virtually impossible to conceive of social
science inquiry that does not incorporate some form of causal inference. Whether
we speak in the strict terminology of law-like relationships with independent
and dependent variables, use more traditional historical methods of explan-
ation where we speak of conditions that may give rise to outcomes
2007 International Studies Association.
Published by Blackwell Publishing, 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA, and 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK
International Studies Perspectives (2007) 8, 303314.
(generalizable and predictable or not), or adopt more recent forms of interpret-
ive social theory there remains an underlying assumption of causality. Even if
anarchy is what states make of it (to paraphrase Alexander Wendt), it remains
necessary to determine the causal mechanisms at the heart of social and political
behavior.
At least this is what most of us continue to teach our undergraduates (as
I believe we should). Exemplars and precedent can be useful here. To cite but
one example of what we tell our students about the nature of causality in inter-
national relations, Joseph Nyes (2003) introductory textbook reects the
assumptions and approach of a prominent mainstream scholar.
1
Nye acknow-
ledges the traditional levels of analysis causal explanations in international
relations and insists on the need for careful differentiation between the scope
and depth of the causal explanation. Overall his depiction of causality is direct
and non-controversial:
Let us distinguish between three types of causes in terms of their proximity in
time to the event we are studying. The most remote are deep causes, then come
intermediate causes, and those immediately before the event are precipitating
causes. By analogy, ask how the lights came to be on in your room. The precipi-
tating cause is that you icked the switch, the intermediate cause is that some-
one wired the building, and the deep cause is that Thomas Edison discovered
how to deliver electricity. Another analogy is building a re: the logs are the
deep cause, the kindling and the paper are the intermediate cause, and the act-
ual striking of the match is the precipitating cause (Nye 2003:74).
From this analogy it becomes easy to discuss various levels of causal explan-
ation in international relations (e.g., conict due to the structural imperatives of
anarchy versus the personality of a leader). Nyes introduction to the discipline
of international relations is notable only because he tends to devote more actual
space to the discussion of causality than the typical introductory text
(e.g., Ray and Kaarbo 2002; Shimko 2005).
2
His interpretation of the nature of
causality appears comparable to that presumed by others. Most important for
our purposes is Nyes assumption that causal explanation is an essential, if not
the essential, underlying rationale for the study of international relations.
Counterfactual reasoning is essential to the process of causal inference (King,
Keohane, and Verba 1994:7685). To think in causal terms involves the capacity
to stipulate effects in a dependent variable when modications are made to the
independent variable. In the simplest terms, if we claim X caused Y it is vital to
provide an articulate counterfactual story about what might have happened to Y
in the absence of X. Suppose we claim that an economic crisis caused a dictator
to be toppled from power. Part of our claim rests on a counterfactual story
about the dictators ability to use economic resources to maintain legitimacy by
improving the standard of living for the average citizen, doling out special favors
to key supporters, or sustaining strong ties with the international communityin
short, what might have happened if not for the economic crisis. In the absence of
a compelling counterfactual story, the causal claim lacks explanatory power.
1
Comparative politics has, of course, undergone its own separate but equal set of methodological disputes.
Like IR, the eld of comparative politics seems willing to live with substantial differences in modes of inquiry and
fundamental theoretical assumptions (e.g., see Geddes 2003; Mahoney and Rueschemayer 2003; and Lichbach
1997).
2
Russett, Starr, and Kinsella (2006) also provide an excellent discussion of causality for their readers, linking it
effectively with multiple levels of analysis along with the logic of hypothesis formulation and testing (e.g., see, espe-
cially, pp. 3242) as an integral part of their textbook.
304 Causal Reasoning and Critical Reading
Not all scholars are quite so enamored of counterfactual reasoning. Typically
historians take a dim view of counterfactuals, treating them either with hostility
or humor. E.H. Carrs famous dismissal of counterfactual history as a parlour
game is cited repeatedly in discussions of historical methodology.
3
Some histo-
rians have used a counterfactual premise as the basis for satirical commentary
on contemporary social issues, or identify specic counterfactuals based on
potential entertainment value, for example, what if Fidel Castro had been drafted by
the New York Giants in the 1950s and traded in his military fatigues for a baseball uni-
form? (see Ferguson 1999:910, 15). Other historians simply fail to see the
humor altogether, as they view themselves on a principled quest for a true or
objective interpretation of history based on hard-won evidence. Counterfactual
speculation constitutes a supercial distraction from this quest. As Banner
(2005) points out, Historians, who have a hard enough time guring out what
did happen, feel out of their element in trying to determine what otherwise
might have taken place (p. 30).
That there exists a clash of perspectives between the disciplines of history and
political science on the topic of counterfactuals is a lesson well worth imparting
to our students. Counterfactual reasoning is, in essence, the ability to manipu-
late cause-and-effect relationships. This is precisely why counterfactuals should
be embraced in the classroom by the faculty eager to instill basic precepts of
social science thinking in our students. Many signicant phenomena in interna-
tional relations and comparative politicssuch as wars, critical elections, or revo-
lutionsare examples of small n studies in social science. How else can we
speculate about the relative strength of alternative causes unless we willingly
employ counterfactuals? To be sure, there must be some limits imposed on
counterfactual reasoning in order for such arguments to maintain an appropri-
ate level of plausibility, and these limits are discussed below.
Causal explanation transcends methodology or theoretical orientation. Few
research projects in mainstream social science are devoid of causal claims,
although some scholars may be more tentative or implicit than others in their
degree of causal inference. Thus it is critical for the undergraduate classroom to
offer learning opportunitiesreadings, assignments, discussionsthat help stu-
dents discover the logic of causal analysis in social science. The remainder of
this paper is devoted to describing one such assignment.
The Critical Reading Exercise
The Critical Reading Exercise (or CRE) is a brief, highly structured assignment
that calls upon the student to read a scholarly article or book chapter and
identify the major thesis and key causal relationships presented by the author.
In addition, the student is invited to engage in counterfactual reasoning by
speculating about the likely implications of a hypothetical what if? change in
historical circumstances. The CRE is the social science equivalent of a legal
brief. Instead of identifying the key features of a legal argument (e.g., a
Supreme Court case), the CRE calls upon students to reconstruct the logic of a
causal explanation found in a social science article or chapter. A premium is
placed on the succinct rendering of a few essential features from a longer
explanation.
The heart of the CRE assignment involves identication of three signicant
causal claims found in the reading. Students are asked to adopt a standard for-
mula for expressing the causal proposition in their own words, using the familiar
language of because and therefore. The students task, for example, is to
3
For example, Banner (2005), Bunzl (2004), and Ferguson (1999).
305 Brian Ripley
translate a complex argument about the effect of single member districts in the
Japanese electoral system (e.g., Thies 2001) into a simple one-sentence proposi-
tion. The causal proposition is accompanied by a few sentences intended to help
clarify the causal inference or provide context and detail from the authors
explanation:
Because single member districts operate with a winner take all principle,
therefore small political parties tend to be less successful in electoral
competition. Thies notes that the creation of single member districts in the
Japanese Diet (as part of the 1994 electoral reform) could be expected, over the
course of several elections, to discourage small parties such as the Komeito or
Japanese Communist Party from competing (p. 97). In the short run, this
reform has had the effect of maintaining support for the already dominant
Liberal Democratic Party.
4
The CRE assignment is based on a number of mutually reinforcing goals. The
assignment helps create the conditions for more careful reading and more active
classroom discussion. It provides a framework to guide students in identifying
the central ideas and essential features in a social science explanation. Finally,
the CRE format enables the professor to provide a quality writing assignment
without creating an insurmountable grading burden or opening the door to
undue plagiarism problems. Each of these goals will be discussed in turn.
Scholarly Reading
The CRE provides the opportunity for introducing supplementary reading into
the syllabus with the increased possibility that it will actually be read. For many
years I have assigned book chapters, articles, or other forms of brief specialized
reading as a supplement to the primary course text. Not surprisingly, the utility
of such reading varies in direct proportion to the willingness by students to take
it seriously, by which I mean to read it carefully and critically.
Ideally, the professor simply assigns the material, the students read it carefully
and critically, and complete understanding is achieved through a meaningful
dialogue between the faculty and the student. Things seldom work out so
smoothly in practice. Obviously, the willingness of students to do the assigned
reading is based on their own motivation as well as the faculty members ability
to create clear initial expectations, exhibit dynamic classroom leadership, pro-
mote a stimulating culture of learning and a host of other factors well beyond
the scope of this article.
Lets assume, for the sake of argument, that all reasonable steps have been
taken to create a positive learning environment. Practical incentives for critical
reading still help make it a priority for students. One need not adopt a cynical
or adversarial stance toward the students in this regard. My approach to student
reading assignments borrows from former President Ronald Reagans motto on
arms control with the Soviets: trust but verify.
There are many ways to create incentives for critical reading such as providing
a list of thought provoking study questions, assigning student journals, or issuing
the proverbial threat to make the material part of the nal exam. The CRE com-
bines brevity, a specic task, and a grade (worth approximately 5% of the nal
4
This is, of course, one version of Duvergers law. Single member districts are supposed to give rise, over time,
to a two-party system. Small parties will, it is theorized, coalesce to form two moderate catch all parties of the
right and the left. Thus, Japans electoral engineers were attempting to nd a means of limiting LDP dominance
when they adopted this 1994 reform. So far, no such luck, although it is an interesting causal case for classroom
discussion.
306 Causal Reasoning and Critical Reading
grade for each CRE in my courses). In my experience this constitutes a carrot
for the virtuous and a stick for the recalcitrant, yet avoids threats or busy work
for all involved.
Priming the Discussion
By creating an incentive to read, the CRE also becomes an asset in priming
classroom discussion. Educators who adopt an active learning approach count
on students to participate as partners in the process through informed discus-
sion. Nothing is more frustrating than to enter a classroom prepared for an
engaging discussion only to encounter a room full of students who are simply
unprepared to hold up their end of the bargain. Whats more, discussion-orien-
ted courses inevitably raise the issue of burden sharing among students. Even
with positive rapport and a dynamic classroom culture, one still needs to distin-
guish the leaders (those who actually read and contribute to classroom discus-
sions) from the loafers (those who monitor the classroom discussion to get the
main idea without reading the material).
When students enter the classroom with a completed CRE in hand, the faculty
member can be condent that all students have some basis for active participa-
tion. Once again, the analogy to the use of legal briefs in a constitutional law
class is relevant. Just as the law professor can employ the Socratic method in ask-
ing students to brief the case the professor of international relations or com-
parative politics can call upon students (even the more reticent ones) to present
their version of the authors basic thesis, put forward causal propositions, or pro-
pose counterfactual scenarios. The CRE provides the basic architecture of the
authors explanation from the assigned reading and can serve as the common
ground for discussion.
Providing Guidance for Critical Reading
Creating the incentive to read critically is, however, only a part of the challenge.
You can lead undergraduates to the library, but you cant make them think. Or
can you? Even the most diligent and well-intentioned students may need cues
and assistance on how to read: separating signicant claims from trivial asides,
ferreting out underlying assumptions or author biases, making judgments about
the soundness of an authors conclusions. Students can be encouraged to
develop critical reading skills through the use of interactive journals (Hammer
1997) or through a set of general techniques for analyzing the reading material
(Daley 1995). The CRE assignment provides another option for honing critical
reading skills, as will be discussed in greater detail below.
One of the goals of the CRE is to encourage thoughtful discussion of non-
case readings. Case studies are a proven asset to the discussion-oriented teach-
ing, but cases are not the only (nor arguably the most appropriate) form of
reading for all occasions. Cases are fun to read and fun to teach because they
provide an engaging story as the foundation upon which many kinds of discus-
sion questions and classroom activities can be built. The growing number of
accessible cases and the increased sophistication of case-based teaching methods
have proven a boon to the eld of international relations. Yet not every worth-
while book chapter or article in social science comes in story form. How does
one maintain a commitment to active learning once we leave the realm of case-
based teaching?
The CRE is intended to enhance the possibility of active, discussion-oriented
teaching with theoretical explanation and causal analysis as the primary goal
while utilizing traditional contributions to scholarly literature in international
relations and comparative politics. In essence this assignment asks students to
307 Brian Ripley
enter an academic dialogue using both the tools and the texts of mainstream
social science scholarship.
Pragmatic Teaching Issues
The remaining goals of the CRE assignment are, admittedly, more pragmatic
in nature. The assignments brevity (one typed page) eases the burden of
grading and makes it possible to provide timely responses to the students. In my
experience, I can actually provide more and better feedback on student wri-
ting given the focused format of the CRE. In essence, I get more mileage
from each CRE because of the effort required by students. It makes sense to
assign multiple CREs covering several articles during the term. Students get
more practice honing their writing skills in this format when compared to the
proverbial one shot term paper.
The CRE is also virtually plagiarism proof. In an era when term papers and
book reviews can be downloaded in a matter of seconds from the Internet, the
burden falls on the faculty to tailor assignments in ways that make them less
vulnerable to the pirates of the information highway. The CRE calls upon
students to read, discern, analyze, and construct statements using their own
words. Students bring a typed paper to class, removing the possibility of any last
minute unethical improvisation in the back of the classroom. Although cheating
in the form of one student doing the work of another student outside of class
still exists, the CRE removes many of the most convenient opportunities for
academic dishonesty.
Finally, an unanticipated consequence of this assignment has been an increase
in the number of students seeking consultation during ofce hours. Part of the
explanation for increased student trafc can be traced to the novelty of the
assignment. Surprising as it may seem, most undergraduates simply have not
encountered the need to identify a thesis or causal claims in a formal reading
assignment. One can quickly distinguish between students who have genuine
questions and those who simply have not bothered to read the material care-
fully. I view such visits as a positive enhancement of the learning process. More
dialogue with students in one-on-one setting provides an extra opportunity to
hone critical reasoning skills. What is more, it often results in greater willingness
by those students to engage in public discussions of these assignments in the
classroom once the ice has been broken via a one-on-one ofce chat.
Challenges Posed by the CRE Assignment
Although the CRE assignment has plenty of virtues, one does encounter prob-
lems in classroom application. Among the challenges are locating appropriate
reading assignments, helping students distinguish between a topic and a thesis,
dealing with complex multi-causal relationships, and encouraging the construc-
tion of plausible realistic counterfactuals.
Assigning Appropriate Reading
The choice of reading material for the CRE assignment will vary according to a
number of factors such as course content, level of student sophistication, and
teaching objectives. One of my goals has been to introduce undergraduates to
the professional study of international relations and comparative politics by
assigning the work of respected scholars in the eld. These readings are inten-
ded to supplement rather than replace a core text.
One reason to assign professional scholarly work in an undergraduate course
is to move beyond what might be termed the bold print syndrome of
308 Causal Reasoning and Critical Reading
textbook writing. Unfortunately, undergraduate readers have grown accustomed
to texts where all signicant features of an argument are highlighted, italicized,
or placed in color-coded, cartoon-laden boxes so as to avoid any chance for the
reader to miss the point. Undergraduates, who lack exposure to genuine schol-
arly writing, are ill prepared for the transition to graduate school and, frankly,
are robbed of the opportunity to develop more sophisticated critical and analyt-
ical skills. The best social science arguments are rarely presented with sirens and
ashing lights to direct the readers attention.
The door swings both ways of course. There exists, unfortunately, a signicant
gap between the basic writing style common to core texts and the highly special-
ized style of much published research in social science. One challenge is to iden-
tify scholarly readings that are sufciently accessible to undergraduates. Obtuse,
jargon-lled writing combined with highly technical methodology is a sure re
way to lose even the brightest undergraduates. Instead, it is often possible to
nd smart, conceptually rich reading material to help wean students away from
the seductive simplicity of the common core textbook.
Another challenge, given the specic aims of the CRE assignment listed above,
is to make sure the readings contain plenty of identiable causal claims. The
most formal scholarly work often includes overt, explicit identication of a cau-
sal model but in some respects, this defeats the purpose of the CRE. The most
satisfying CRE readings frequently involve a little detective work by students;
thus, the presence of multiple, implicit or partially specied causal assertions
scattered throughout the reading actually enhances the assignment.
What works? Academic journals with a policy focus can be an appropriate
choice for this assignment. Articles from journals such as Foreign Affairs, The
Washington Quarterly, Foreign Policy, or Current History although frequently pre-
scriptive or descriptive in tone, can contain the basis for excellent IR and com-
parative politics causal explanations. When constructing their policy arguments,
authors invariably draw causal inferences open to counterfactual analysis. Indeed
it is virtually impossible to explain an important policy phenomenon in interna-
tional or comparative politicssay, for example, the success or failure of U.S.
nuclear diplomacy with North Koreawithout making a number of causal asser-
tions. Note that the CRE places primary emphasis on identifying the causal
underpinning of a policy argument. Students who read with the CRE assignment
in mind will be more focused on the causal implications of imposing economic
sanctions on a target country and somewhat less focused on the wisdom or desir-
ability of doing so. Nevertheless, a discussion of fundamental causal assumptions
could dovetail nicely with a broader discussion of strategic or ethical questions
depending upon the faculty members goals for the class.
One can, however, move beyond the policy realm to a more explicit theoret-
ical work. Indeed, the desire to assign such a work was my primary motivation in
designing the CRE in the rst place. Well-written chapters from edited volumes
often accomplish my purposes. We are all familiar with such volumes, and our
libraries abound with them. Often organized around a common theoretical
framework, authors explore a particular piece of the research puzzle or apply
the framework to a specic country, region, or historic era. Chapters written in
the form of a conceptually rich, theoretically driven case study are especially use-
ful for the undergraduate classroom as they provide a substantive anchor for stu-
dent readers. Examples include the changing role of parties in European
politics (Dalton and Wattenberg 2000), contemporary U.S. foreign policy and
the balance of power (Ikenberry 2002), and electoral behavior in Asia (Sheng
et al. 2001).
Obviously one runs the risk of letting the tail wag the dog; plenty of worthwhile
supplementary readings may not meet the dual criteria of accessible writing style
and readily identiable causal arguments. No assignment can serve every
309 Brian Ripley
purpose. Nevertheless, the kind of reading suitable for the CRE assignment offers
a faculty member wide latitude in selecting from among the best examples of
contemporary writing in IR and comparative politics. It is refreshing for both stu-
dent and professor to dip into the pool of genuine scholarship on a recurring
basis.
Distinguishing Between Topic and Thesis
The rst task called for in the CRE is to identify the thesis statement of the
article or chapter. This has proven more challenging than anticipated. Many
students at my institution (a moderately selective regional liberal arts college)
have difculty distinguishing between a general topical description and a thesis
statement.
To illustrate this problem, I will make reference to a chapter by Malley (2003)
used as the basis for a CRE reading assignment in a comparative Asian politics
course. Malleys chapter, a contribution to an edited volume on the dynamics of
state failure, exemplies the type of reading well suited to the CRE assignment.
The author provides a clear description of the tensions in contemporary Indo-
nesian politics such as the rise of regional insurgency movements, the lack of
well-developed democratic institutions, and the continuing legacy of the Asian
nancial crisis of the late 1990s. His argument offers plenty of causal assertions
such as the link between the economic crisis and the Suharto regimes loss of
legitimacy, the tradition of direct military involvement in politics as a hindrance
to the establishment of democratic institutions, and the Indonesian electoral sys-
tems failure to provide a clear mandate to Megawati Sukarnoputri, the presi-
dent of Indonesia at the time. Despite Indonesias many vexing challenges,
Malley concludes that it does not meet the denition of a failed state.
Some of my students struggle to glean the essential thesis from Malleys well-
written chapter. The assignment calls for a single sentence of no more than 25
words. While, admittedly, the word limit is arbitrary, the purpose of imposing it is
to place a premium on clear, succinct language. It takes considerable effort to dis-
till the contents of a scholarly chapter into one clear, cogent sentence. Compare
the following examples as a way to differentiate a mediocre versus excellent thesis.
Example 1:
This article was about the political stability of Indonesia after the turmoil of the
late 1990s economic crisis and how relatively stable they are now.
Example 2:
Although plagued by regional insurgencies, weak political institutions, and con-
tinued economic problems, Indonesias new democracy cannot be labeled a
failed state.
Example 1 lacks detail and precision. This redundant sentence omits critical
aspects of the authors argument. As clearly indicated in Example 2, Malley does
not tout the stability of the Indonesian political system but merely makes the
case that Indonesia is more stable than critics contend. In fact, it is somewhat
remarkable that Indonesia has not devolved into a failed state given the
complicated tangle of problems confronting the nations leaders. Example 2
manages to provide tangible information and a nuanced interpretation of the
authors argument, all within the 25 word limit.
Surprisingly, some students nd thesis identication to be the most difcult
aspect of the assignment. The good news is that nearly all students demonstrate
310 Causal Reasoning and Critical Reading
improvement over the term. Multiple CRE opportunities (each followed by spe-
cic and timely faculty feedback) allow students to hone their skills in clearly
identifying and articulating a thesis statement.
Dealing with Complex, Multi-Causal Explanations
By the nature of social science inquiry, many causal explanations are complex.
Few published articles or chapters contain a single, simple, mono-causal claim.
More often, scholars put forward sophisticated arguments: multi-layered explana-
tions replete with antecedent conditions, notable exceptions, hypothetical
alternatives, and nuanced caveats. The more we hedge our bets in our scholarly
writing (as is often appropriate) the further we stray from a simple, straightfor-
ward causal account.
Consider, for example, a popular account of the process of democratization
in comparative perspective drawn from a key chapter in a book on this topic
(Zakaria 2003:chapter 3). Economic liberalization creates a growing middle class
that in turn gives rise to demands for a democratic political system yet genuine
democracy is more likely if preceded by a foundation of constitutional liberal-
ism, nurtured by wise elites who establish durable political institutions. While
such a claim is certainly debatable, is constitutes a plausible causal explanation
and is written by an author attempting to engage an intelligent readership. The
chapter is appropriate for the CRE assignment, but poses a few problems.
First, the above causal claim is a highly distilled, reconstructed statement of the
authors logic. Nowhere in the chapter does the author spell it out quite this
clearly for the reader. Second, the author provides an eclectic array of examples
to illustrate his point, ranging from the growth of autocracy in Russia from Yeltsin
to Putin, the rise of Chavez in Venezuela, Nehrus wise leadership of India in the
1950s, efforts by the Chinese Communist Party to limit the political impact of eco-
nomic reform, and so on. The author puts forth a popular scholarly argument
and the book represents precisely the sort of reading we hope a cosmopolitan,
well-educated liberal arts graduate might read after they leave our classrooms.
It is important for students to recognize and grasp a sophisticated chain of
causality, but this often confounds even the conscientious undergraduate grap-
pling with new concepts in an unfamiliar eld. In order to simplify matters for
all concerned, I restrict the students to identifying no more than three single
cause-and-effect linkages in the argument while acknowledging this requires a
bit of abstraction on their part. In other words, the student must ignore the for-
est (at least temporarily) in order to focus on the connections between a few of
the prominent trees.
In the Zakaria chapter referred to above, for example, the student would need
to isolate and identify a simple linkage (e.g., the relationship between a rising
middle class and the demand for greater political participation) from within the
complex web of multiple causal claims. It would be equally valid to identify
the causal explanation for the rise of the middle class (i.e., a by-product of
economic liberalization in Zakarias account). The three variables are linked
(1) economic liberalization gives rise to (2) a middle class who in turn (3) make
greater demands for political participationbut I ask students to present only
two variables at a time. Granted this is only part of the story, but the task of dis-
secting a complex causal argument into its fundamental component parts strikes
me as worthwhile analytical training. This assignment could, of course, be modi-
ed to allow for the inclusion of multi-variable causal chains but I nd with the
undergraduates in my introductory courses one step at a time toward social sci-
ence is sufcient. We use classroom discussion as an opportunity to reassemble
the argument in its entirety, often diagramming the causal relationships on the
blackboard or via a power point presentation.
311 Brian Ripley
Causal Statements or Tautologies?
Another problem quickly identied by this assignment is the students tempta-
tion to provide tautological statements rather than causal claims. For example,
consider the results of student efforts in a recent CRE assignment involving
Indian politics.
After reading a scholarly article by Ganguly (2003) on the current status of
political secularism in Indias highly contentious multi-faith society, a student
produced the following causal claim:
Because of a decline of secularism in India therefore there has been a rise in
anti-secularism.
This interpretation of Ganguly is not exactly wrong, but it is immediately
apparent that the statement is a tautology. The antecedent (decline of secular-
ism) and consequent (the rise of anti-secularism) is essentially the same
phenomenon, not a cause-and-effect relationship. The vague wording avoids any
grasp of the causal mechanism at work here. Whats more, even if the statement
was expressed more precisely the temporal sequencing is suspicious (is anti-
secularism the cause or the consequence of a decline in secularism?).
A more precise rendering of Gangulys argument involves stipulating reasons
for the decline of secularism, most notably political pandering to religious zeal-
ots by leaders such as Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. These tactics resulted in
an erosion of the historic commitment to secularism by the ruling Congress
Party (dominated in the early years of Indian independence by the rigidly sec-
ularist Nehru who scrupulously avoided actions that might provoke religious
conict). Anti-secularists, including the pro-Hindu BJP party, were the beneci-
aries of this change in the political culture since they felt free to make strident
religious claims. Indeed a decline in secularism did lead to a rise in anti-secularism
but the students causal statement presented above is too imprecise and (at least
borderline) tautological.
Identifying A Plausible Counterfactual
The major problems encountered by students in this part of the assignment
involve (a) remembering to keep the analysis historical and (b) determining
a reasonable standard for plausibility in constructing the counterfactual
argument.
Although most students do surprisingly well in their efforts to generate coun-
terfactuals, a few get caught in the trap of predicting future changes rather than
working with a retrospective alternative history. When speculating about the
political tactics of the Chinese Communist Party, for example, students may offer
an argument about what if? the CCP adopted a more democratic political sys-
tem in the future. Although this sort of forecasting ts the logic of counterfac-
tual reasoning (i.e., introduce a shift in the independent variable as a thought
experiment about the likely consequences), it violates the standard norm of
what constitutes a counterfactual. A modied version of the student counterfac-
tual would be what if? Deng Xiaopeng and his fellow CCP members had
introduced democratic reforms along with the sweeping economic liberalization
program they adopted in the 1980s.
The second (and frankly more daunting) challenge posed to students in gen-
erating counterfactuals involves establishing the boundaries of plausibility. When
entering the realm of what might have been? historical argumentation, it is
important to maintain some basic parameters. To do otherwise can result in a
move from reasonable causal manipulation into wild speculations better suited
312 Causal Reasoning and Critical Reading
to science ction. As Nye points out, it makes little sense to engage in counter-
factual reasoning about Napoleonic wars being fought with stealth bombers
(Nye 2003;51). Such a counterfactual is implausible, Nye argues, because it
violates the concept of cotenability (i.e., the two conditions could not have
existed at the same time). The cotenability criteria for plausible counterfactual
reasoning is closely associated with an additional criteria, namely the proximity
in time of a cause (Nye 2003:51).
Although it is possible to retrace the links in a chain of causality back through
the epochs of history, the longer causal chain makes for less convincing counter-
factuals, especially when seeking more immediate and narrow causal explanations.
At some basic level, it is true that if my British ancestors had not immigrated to the
American colonies in the 1700s, for example, I would not be teaching courses in
international relations and comparative politics at my college next semester. But a
more convincing counterfactual explanation is likely to be derived by selecting
some causal variable more immediate in time (e.g., if I had not pursued a Ph.D. in
political science, if I had not applied for the position at my institution, if I had not volun-
teered to develop specic courses for our department curriculum, etc.).
A common student violation of plausibility involves reaching too far back into
history to construct the counterfactual. For example, one of my students recently
presented an argument suggesting that present day India might not be strug-
gling with questions of secularism at all had it not been for British colonialism.
There is some merit to this argument and, at times, it might be quite useful to
speculate about the role played by colonialism in shaping or distorting the devel-
opment of a political system. On the other hand, imagining an India which had
not experienced British colonial rule opens a Pandoras box of other quandaries
such as whether there would even be a country of India with the present day
geographical boundaries, parliamentary political system, and other fundamental
characteristics.
In their fascinating study of competing explanations for the end of the Cold
War, Herrmann and Lebow (2004) and their colleagues rely heavily on counter-
factual reasoning. Some scholars in this study insist on more exacting criteria for
the generation of plausible counterfactuals, including what is referred to as
minimal rewrite history. The authors hold constant as many factors as possible
and manipulate variables only slightly in their counterfactual construction (e.g.,
what if Hinkleys bullet had killed President Reagan rather than simply wounding him?)
as a way to provide greater credence to their claims (e.g., see Breslauer and
Lebow 2004). Ultimately the criteria for plausibility in a counterfactual argu-
ment are matters of judgment that can give rise to a fruitful classroom discus-
sion. Nevertheless it probably makes sense to rein in the most far-ung forms of
counterfactual reasoning in order to maintain the scholarly purpose of the CRE
assignment.
Conclusion
According to Ken Bain (2004) the best college professors introduce their
undergraduates to the important questions, debates, and methods of their disci-
pline right from the start in their earliest introductory courses. Helping students
identify a thesis statement, a causal claim, or a counterfactual argument are basic
bread and butter elements of mainstream social science thinking. As with any
fundamental skill, practice makes perfect. There is no good reason to delay dis-
cussion of causality and counterfactual reasoning until graduate school. Fortu-
nately, good methodological skills and good teaching go hand-in-hand.
The CRE assignment allows one to achieve a number of goals in a fashion well
suited to the pedagogical style of active learning. Students are challenged to
read scholarly work beyond the textbook, examine professional arguments
313 Brian Ripley
beyond merely a supercial description, and engage in an active classroom dia-
logue beyond a case study. When an assignment for an introductory IR or com-
parative politics class can engender active (even, at times, impassioned)
discussion about basic questions of cause and effect something must be going
right. The active learning approach continues to hold a great promise for
enriching the art and craft of teaching social sciences.
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