Analysis of the European market of y p

new passenger cars and correlations

with their CO
2
emissions with their CO
2
emissions
E Zervas E. Zervas
Department of Environmental Engineering
Democritus University of Thrace
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Motivation 1
CO
2
emissions have a significant impact on
climate changes climate changes
A significant part of anthropogenic CO
2
emissions
come from road transport and more specifically
from passenger cars
A decrease of new passenger cars CO
2
emissions
is an issue
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Motivation 2
A decrease of new passenger cars CO emissions A decrease of new passenger cars CO
2
emissions
is an issue
This decrease can be technical: better fuels This decrease can be technical: better fuels,
better combustion, generally, better
technology technology.
However, the technology seems to have its
limits ! limits !
Or can be of administrative order: lower
mileage, increased public transport systems, tax mileage, increased public transport systems, tax
incentives to buy lower CO
2
cars
A combination of both is more effective
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
A combination of both is more effective
Motivation 3
The current situation of EU new passenger market
can help us to understand: p
why CO
2
emissions of new PCs are difficult to
decrease decrease
adjust the necessary energy and environmental
policy policy
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Contents of this presentation
Methodology used
New European Driving Cycle
Results and discussion
Impact of engine / vehicle parameters on
exhaust CO
2
emissions
Evolution of average values of those
t d f CO i i parameters and of CO
2
emissions
per country
per segment per segment
per firms
Conclusions propositions for the future
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Conclusions propositions for the future
Methodology used
Analysis of all data of all new passenger cars y p g
registrations in EU15 (or EU14) from 1995 to
2003 2003
No data available for the new countries members
N t ll G k d t il bl Not all Greek data available
CO
2
emissions obtained on the New European
Driving Cycle (impossible to have real CO
2
emissions)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
New European Driving Cycle
120
140 1st part: urban (ECE): 4,052 km 2nd part: extra-urban (EUDC): 6,955 km
Max. speed = 120 km/h
Average speed = 33.6 km/h
Durati on = 1 180 s
NEDC Cycl e
80
100
k
m
/
h
)
Di stance = 11.007 km
60
S
p
e
e
d

(
k
El ementary urban cycl e
20
40
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
Time (s)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
1 Impact of engine/vehicle 1. Impact of engine/vehicle
parameters on CO
2
emissions p
2
Engine / vehicle parameters studied: Engine / vehicle parameters studied:
Vehicle weight
Engine displacement
Max Power Max. Power
Specific power (max. power/displacement)
CO
2
emissions (NEDC, ECE, EUDC)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
1 Impact of engine/vehicle 1. Impact of engine/vehicle
parameters on CO
2
emissions p
2
600
GASOLINE
g
/
k
m
)
200
400
400
e
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

(
g
0
DIESEL
200
300
C
O
2

e
0 2000 4000 6000
3
0
100
0 100 200 300 400 500
M P (kW)
0 40 80 120 160
S ifi P (kW/L)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
W i ht (k )
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Displacement (cm
3
)
Max. Power (kW) Specific Power (kW/L) Weight (kg)
1 Impact of engine/vehicle 1. Impact of engine/vehicle
parameters on CO
2
emissions
CO
2
increases with vehicle weight as more work is
necessary for the same driving distance,
CO increases with displacement as generally CO
2
increases with displacement as, generally,
more fuel is necessary to fill the cylinders,
CO
2
increases with power as more fuel is necessary
to produce the increased work, p ,
no obvious trends between CO
2
and specific power
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.1 New PC registrations
4000000
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
80
100
0
0
0

i
n
h
.
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
3000000
s
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
s
FR
GE
GR
IR
IT
LU
60
80
n
s

p
e
r

1
0
FR
GE
GR
IR
IT
LU
2000000
P
C

r
e
g
i
sNE
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU/10
40
g
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
o
n NE
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
1000000
N
e
w

20
w

P
C

r
e
g
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
N
e
w
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2. Evolution of average values g
2.2 New PC registrations: Diesel /
gasoline gasoline
1600000
n
s
AU
BE
DE
FI
4000000
o
n
s
AU
BE
DE
FI
1200000
g
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
o
FR
GE
GR
IR
IT
LU
3000000
r
e
g
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
FR
GE
GR
IR
IT
LU
800000
e
w

P
C

r
e
NE
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU/10
2000000
n
e
w

P
C

r
NE
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU/10
400000
D
i
e
s
e
l

n
e
EU/10
1000000
G
a
s
o
l
i
n
e

n
EU/10
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
G
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.3 Diesel penetration
80
%
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
60
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
%
GE
GR
IR
IT
LU
NE
40
e
l

p
e
n
e
t
rNE
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
20
D
i
e
s
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.4 Vehicle weight
1600
AU
BE
DE
FI
1600
AU
BE
DE
FI
DIESEL
GASOLINE
1400
g
h
t

(
k
g
)
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
1400
g
h
t

(
k
g
)
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
1200
r
a
g
e

W
e
i
g
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
1200
r
a
g
e

W
e
i
g
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
1000
A
v
e
r
1000
A
v
e
r
1995 2000 2005
Year
1995 2000 2005
Year
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.5 Engine displacement
2400
m
3
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
2400
m
3
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
DIESEL
GASOLINE
2000
e
m
e
n
t

(
c
m
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
2000
e
m
e
n
t

(
c
m
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
1600
D
i
s
p
l
a
c
e
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
1600
D
i
s
p
l
a
c
e
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
1600
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

1600
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

1995 2000 2005
Year
1200
A
1995 2000 2005
Year
1200
A
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.6 Engine max .power
120
W
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
120
W
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
DIESEL
GASOLINE
100
P
o
w
e
r

(
k
W
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
100
P
o
w
e
r

(
k
W
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
80
g
e

M
a
x
.

P
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
80
g
e

M
a
x
.

P
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
60
A
v
e
r
a
g
60
A
v
e
r
a
g
1995 2000 2005
Year
40
1995 2000 2005
Year
40
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.7 Engine specific power
50
k
W
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
50
k
W
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
DIESEL
GASOLINE
P
o
w
e
r

(
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE P
o
w
e
r

(
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
40
S
p
e
c
i
f
i
c

PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
40
S
p
e
c
i
f
i
c

PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
30
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

30
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

1995 2000 2005
Year
A
1995 2000 2005
Year
A
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.8 NEDC CO
2
emissions
280
g
/
k
m
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
280
g
/
k
m
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
DIESEL
GASOLINE
240
N
E
D
C

(
g
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
240
N
E
D
C

(
g
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
200
s
i
o
n
s

o
n

PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
160
200
s
i
o
n
s

o
n

PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
160
O
2

e
m
i
s
s
120
160
O
2

e
m
i
s
s
1995 2000 2005
Year
120
C
O
1995 2000 2005
Year
120
C
O
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.9 ECE CO
2
emissions
240
280
/
k
m
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
240
280
/
k
m
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
DIESEL
GASOLINE
200
240
n

E
C
E

(
g
/
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
200
240
n

E
C
E

(
g
/
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
160
s
s
i
o
n
s

o
n
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU 160
s
s
i
o
n
s

o
n
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
120
C
O
2

e
m
i
s
120
C
O
2

e
m
i
s
1995 2000 2005
Year
80
C
1995 2000 2005
Year
80
C
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.10 EUDC CO
2
emissions
200
/
k
m
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
200
/
k
m
)
AU
BE
DE
FI
DIESEL
GASOLINE
160
180
E
U
D
C

(
g
/
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
160
E
U
D
C

(
g
/
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
140
160
i
o
n
s

o
n

E
NE
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
i
o
n
s

o
n

E
NE
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
120
O
2

e
m
i
s
s120
O
2

e
m
i
s
s
1995 2000 2005
Year
100
C
O
1995 2000 2005
Year
80
C
O
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.11 Diesel CO
2
distribution
20
25
a
g
e
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
DIESEL
5
10
15
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1200000
1600000
e
r
0
400000
800000
N
u
m
b
e
<130 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 220 >250
140 150 160 170 180 190 200 220 250
CO emissions (g/km)
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
CO
2
emissions (g/km)
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.12 Gasoline CO
2
distribution
16
20
a
g
e
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
GASOLINE
4
8
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1200000
1600000
2000000
e
r
0
400000
800000
1200000
N
u
m
b
e
<140 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 >250
150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 250
CO emissions (g/km)
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
CO
2
emissions (g/km)
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.13 Relative changes
120
Di l
80
Diesel
Gasoline
40
C
h
a
n
g
e
0
%

C
W W W W /
D
/
D
/
D
/
P
/
P C C
-40
D
/
W
P
/
W
S
P
/
W
C
O
2

N
E
D
C
/
W
P
/
D
S
P
/
D
C
O
2

N
E
D
C
/
D
S
P
/
P
C
O
2

N
E
D
C
/
P
C
O
2

E
C
E
/
C
O
2

N
E
D
C
C
O
2

E
U
D
C
/
C
O
2

N
E
D
C
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
C
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.14 Some conclusions of part 2
There are significant differences between the g
market of the 15 EU countries (new PC
registrations, regstr/1000 inhabitants, Diesel registrations, regstr/1000 inhabitants, Diesel
penetration), average weight, displacement,
power specific power CO emissions power, specific power, CO
2
emissions
It is not obvious to follow the same policy at
each country each country
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
2 Evolution of average values 2. Evolution of average values
2.15 Some conclusions of part 2
Significant increase of Diesel penetration
Significant increase of average weight max Significant increase of average weight, max.
power, specific power, while average displacement
i it t t remains quite constant
NEDC CO
2
emissions decrease only until 2000
ECE CO
2
emissions increase until 2000 and
decreases slightly after this year dec eases s g ty a te t s yea
The main decrease of NEDC CO
2
emissions is
due to EUDC (ratio urban / extra urban mileage?)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
due to EUDC (ratio urban / extra urban mileage?)
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.1 Diesel registrations
2500000
n
s
SC
ECO
LM
UM
50
SC
ECO
LM
UM
1500000
2000000
g
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1 30
40
a
g
e
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
1000000
D
i
e
s
e
l

r
e
g
4x4-2
20
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
4x4-2
500000
T
o
t
a
l

D
10
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.2 Gasoline registrations
4000000
o
n
s
SC
ECO
LM
UM
40
SC
ECO
LM
UM
3000000
e
g
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
o
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
30
a
g
e
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
2000000
s
o
l
i
n
e

r
e
4x4-2
20
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
4x4-2
1000000
T
o
t
a
l

g
a
s
10
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.3 Average weight
2400
k
g
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
2400
(
k
g
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
1600
2000
w
e
i
g
h
t

(
k
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1 1600
2000
e

w
e
i
g
h
t

(
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
1200
a
v
e
r
a
g
e

w
4x4-2
EU14
1200
a
v
e
r
a
g
e
4x4-2
EU14
800
D
i
e
s
e
l

a
800
G
a
s
o
l
i
n
e

1995 2000 2005
Year
400
1995 2000 2005
Year
400
G
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.4 Average displacement
4000
n
t

(
c
m
3
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
4000
n
t

(
c
m
3
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
3000
p
l
a
c
e
m
e
n
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
3000 s
p
l
a
c
m
e
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
3000
a
g
e

d
i
s
p
4x4-2
EU14
3000
e
r
a
g
e

d
i
s
4x4-2
EU14
2000
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
r
a
2000
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
1000
D
i
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
1000 G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.5 Average power
250
W
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
250
k
W
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
150
200
p
o
w
e
r

(
k
W
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1 150
200

p
o
w
e
r

(
k
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
100
a
v
e
r
a
g
e

p
4x4-2
EU14
100
a
v
e
r
a
g
e 4x4-2
EU14
50
D
i
e
s
e
l

a
50
G
a
s
o
l
i
n
e

1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
G
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.6 Average specific power
60
(
k
W
/
L
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
60
r

(
k
W
/
L
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
50
.

p
o
w
e
r

(
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
4x4 2
50
p
.

p
o
w
e
r
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
4x4 2
40
e
r
a
g
e

s
p
.
4x4-2
EU14
40
v
e
r
a
g
e

s
p
4x4-2
EU14
30
i
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
30
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
1995 2000 2005
Year
20
D
i
1995 2000 2005
Year
20
G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.7 Average CO
2
on NEDC
400
g
/
k
m
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
400
(
g
/
k
m
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
300 D
C

C
O
2

(
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
300 E
D
C

C
O
2

PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
300
r
a
g
e

N
E
D
4x4-2
EU14
300
e
r
a
g
e

N
E
4x4-2
EU14
200
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
r
200
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
100
D
i
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
100
G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.8 Average CO
2
on ECE
500
600
g
/
k
m
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
500
600
(
g
/
k
m
) SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
400
500
C
E

C
O
2

(
g
PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1 400
500
E
C
E

C
O
2

PRE
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
300
e
r
a
g
e

E
C
4x4-2
EU14
300
v
e
r
a
g
e

E
4x4-2
EU14
200
D
i
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
200
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
1995 2000 2005
Year
100
D
1995 2000 2005
Year
100
G
a
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.9 Average CO
2
on EUDC
300
(
g
/
k
m
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
400
2

(
g
/
k
m
)
SC
ECO
LM
UM
PRE
D
C

C
O
2

CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
4 4 2
300
U
D
C

C
O
2
CO
SUP
SUV1
SUV2
4x4-1
4 4 2
200
r
a
g
e

E
U
4x4-2
EU14
200
v
e
r
a
g
e

E
U
4x4-2
EU14
100
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
100
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
1995 2000 2005
Year
D
i
1995 2000 2005
Year
G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.10 Case study: percentage of SUV2
5
AU
BE
DE
FI
3
AU
BE
DE
FI
SUV>4.5m
3
4
e
n
t
a
g
e
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
2
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
2
s
e
l

p
e
r
c
e
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
1 o
l
i
n
e

p
e
r
c
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
1
D
i
e
s
1
G
a
s
o
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
3 Segment analysis 3. Segment analysis
3.11 Some conclusions of part 3
There are significant differences between each
segment: average weight, displacement, max, g g g p
power, specific power, CO
2
emissions
The same policy cannot be applied to all these p y pp
segments
For almost all segments NEDC CO
2
emissions For almost all segments, NEDC CO
2
emissions
are constant since 2000. The decrease before
2000 is mainly due to EUDC (ratio urban / extra 2000 is mainly due to EUDC (ratio urban / extra
urban mileage?)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.1 Market share
1600000
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
16
1200000
r
a
t
i
o
n
s
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renault
12
a
g
e
800000
a
l

r
e
g
i
s
t
r
Seat
Toyota
VW
8
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
400000 T
o
t
a
4
1995 2000 2005
Year
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.2 Diesel market share
800000
n
s
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fi at
16
600000
g
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renault
12
a
g
e
400000
D
i
e
s
e
l

r
e
g
Seat
Toyota
VW
8
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
200000
T
o
t
a
l

D
4
1995 2000 2005
Year
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.3 Gasoline market share
1600000
o
n
s
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
Ford
16
1200000
e
g
i
s
t
r
a
t
i
o
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renaul t
12
a
g
e
800000
a
s
o
l
i
n
e

r
e
Seat
Toyota
VW
8
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
400000
T
o
t
a
l

g
a
4
1995 2000 2005
Year
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.4 Average weight
1600
k
g
)
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
1600
(
k
g
)
1400
w
e
i
g
h
t

(
k
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renaul t
1400

w
e
i
g
h
t

(
1200
a
v
e
r
a
g
e

w
Seat
Toyota
VW
EU14
1200
a
v
e
r
a
g
e
1000
D
i
e
s
e
l

a
1000
G
a
s
o
l
i
n
e

1995 2000 2005
Year
800
1995 2000 2005
Year
800
G
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.5 Average displacement
2400
2800
t

(
c
m
3
)
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
2800
n
t

(
c
m
3
)
2000
2400
l
a
c
e
m
e
n
t
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renault 2000
2400
p
l
a
c
e
m
e
1600
a
g
e

d
i
s
p
l
Seat
Toyota
VW
EU14
1600
r
a
g
e

d
i
s
p
1200
s
e
l

a
v
e
r
a
1200
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
800
D
i
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
800
G
a
s
o
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.6 Average power
120
140
r

(
k
W
)
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
Ford
120
140
e
r

(
k
W
)
100
120
x
.

p
o
w
e
r
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renault 100
120
a
x
.

p
o
w
e
80
r
a
g
e

m
a
x
Seat
Toyota
VW
EU14
80
v
e
r
a
g
e

m
60
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
60
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
1995 2000 2005
Year
40
D
i
1995 2000 2005
Year
40
G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.7 Average specific power
)
50
55
r

(
k
W
/
L
)
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
55
60
e
r

(
k
W
/
L
)
45
50
f
i
c

p
o
w
e
r
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renault
50
55
c
i
f
i
c

p
o
w
e
35
40
g
e

s
p
e
c
i
f
Seat
Toyota
VW
EU14
40
45
a
g
e

s
p
e
c
30
35
e
l

a
v
e
r
a
g
35
40
i
n
e

a
v
e
r
a
1995 2000 2005
Year
25
D
i
e
s
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
30
G
a
s
o
l
i
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.8 Average CO
2
on NEDC
280
g
/
k
m
)
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
280
(
g
/
k
m
)
240
D
C

C
O
2

(
g
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renaul t
240
E
D
C

C
O
2

200
r
a
g
e

N
E
D
Seat
Toyota
VW
EU14
200
e
r
a
g
e

N
E
160
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
r
160
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
120
D
i
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
120
G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.9 Average CO
2
on ECE
320
/
k
m
)
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
320
g
/
k
m
)
240
280
E

C
O
2

(
g
/
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renaul t 240
280
C
E

C
O
2

(
200
e
r
a
g
e

E
C
Seat
Toyota
VW
EU14
200
v
e
r
a
g
e

E
C
160
i
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
160
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
1995 2000 2005
Year
120
D
1995 2000 2005
Year
120
G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.10 Average CO
2
on EUDC
240
g
/
k
m
)
Audi
Bmw
Citroen
Fiat
240
(
g
/
k
m
)
200
D
C

C
O
2

(
g
Ford
Mercedes
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Renaul t
200
U
D
C

C
O
2

160
r
a
g
e

E
U
D
Seat
Toyota
VW
EU14
160
e
r
a
g
e

E
U
120
e
s
e
l

a
v
e
r
120
s
o
l
i
n
e

a
v
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
D
i
e
1995 2000 2005
Year
80
G
a
s
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.11 Case study1: FIAT
30
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
40
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
Fiat
20
e
n
t
a
g
e
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
30
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
10
s
e
l

p
e
r
c
e
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
20
o
l
i
n
e

p
e
r
c
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
10
D
i
e
s
10
G
a
s
o
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Year Year
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.12 Case study2: BMW
12
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
8
AU
BE
DE
FI
FR
BMW
8
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
PO
6
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
FR
GE
IR
IT
LU
NE
PO
4
e
s
e
l

p
e
r
c
PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
4
o
l
i
n
e

p
e
r PO
SP
SW
UK
EU
4
D
i
e
2
G
a
s
o
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
1995 2000 2005
Year
0
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
ea
4 Firms analysis 4. Firms analysis
4.13 Some conclusions of part4
The EU market is dynamic
There are significant differences between each g
firm: average weight, displacement, max, power,
specific power, CO
2
emissions p p ,
2
NEDC CO
2
emissions are quite constant since
2000 for almost all firms The decrease before 2000, for almost all firms. The decrease before
2000 is mainly due to EUDC (ratio urban /extra
urban driving profile for real CO emissions?) urban driving profile for real CO
2
emissions?)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Emissions range, Diesel
399.76
336.64
400
250
300
350
118.35
150
200
250
MIN
MAX
118.35
78.9
50
100
150
0
50
1995 2003
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Emissions range, gasoline
703.28
800
597.08
600
700
400
500
MIN
MAX
125.08
80.24
100
200
300
0
100
1995 2003
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Conclusions-1. Specific
There is a general shift to Diesel PCs There is a general shift to Diesel PCs
The average weight constantly increases because
the weight of each PC increases or there is a shift the weight of each PC increases, or there is a shift
to heavier segments (country, segment, firm)
Th di l t i it t t The average displacement remains quite constant
The max. and specific power constantly increases
(country, segment, firm)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Conclusions-2. Specific
NEDC CO
2
emissions decrease significantly only
2
g y y
until 1999-2000 for both Diesel and gasoline PCs
ECE CO
2
emissions increase until 1999-2000 and ECE CO
2
emissions increase until 1999 2000 and
remains quite constant or decreases very slightly
after this year after this year
EUDC CO
2
follows the NEDC trends
Real CO emissions depend onthe ratio urban / Real CO
2
emissions depend on the ratio urban /
extra urban mileage
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Conclusions-3. General
This work analyses the market of European new
passenger cars and their CO emissions passenger cars and their CO
2
emissions
There are significant difference between the
h t i ti d CO i i f h t characteristics and CO
2
emissions of each country,
segment and firm
E h t t fi t ll Each country, segment, firm are not equally
responsible for the CO
2
emissions
The CO
2
policy must be adapted
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Propositions for the future?
The new PCs exhaust CO
2
emissions is a quite
complex phenomenon complex phenomenon
Technical improvements reach their limits
Regulation of CO
2
emissions is the g
2
only effective way
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
CO
2
regulations
1
st
stage: CO
2
emissions
proportional to p p
vehicle weight
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
CO
2
regulations
2
nd
stage: the
same CO
2
emissions for
every vehicle
Important Important
consequences
(smaller cars) (smaller cars)
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008
Analysis of the European market of new Analysis of the European market of new
passenger cars and correlations with
their CO emissions their CO
2
emissions
I hope that this presentation was I hope that this presentation was
clear
and I thank you for your attention
E. Zervas, Democritus University of Thrace WWAI08, Corfu 26-28/10/2008