4.

9 Billion Years AD
Andrew Wright
Originally submitted for the Astronomy Online course at Swinburne University of Technology
1. Introduction
I am standing outside on Earth in 4.9 billion years AD on a summer's day. It is always summer here,
for the Earth's rotation is tidally locked to the giant un which dominates almost a third of the sky
!
,
redder and brighter than e"er before. It is warm, warm enough that the surface of this side of the
#lanet is molten from the un's heat. $here are no oceans or continents, nor is there any life left on
the #lanet, unless you count me and I am not certain that those of times #ast would do so. %ow did
the #lanet end u# like this and what ha##ened to the li"ing beings who shared it with my ancestors&
What is the future of life in the solar system&
2. Cycles of life
$hat life e"er e'isted on Earth at all is a remarkable thing. (enus, of a similar si)e to Earth, but
closer to the un, has an a"erage surface tem#erature of 4*+,- due to the #owerful greenhouse
effect of its dense carbon dio'ide atmos#here. .ars, further out from the un than Earth, also has a
carbon dio'ide atmos#here, but at less than one #ercent of the atmos#heric #ressure on the surface
of Earth. With an a"erage tem#erature of /01,-, it is far too cold and dry to sustain a com#le'
ecosystem like that of Earth. 2ife, as we understand it, re3uires li3uid water, something that (enus
and .ars both lack.
-arbon dio'ide, methane, water "a#our and other trace atmos#heric gases absorb and re/radiate
infra/red wa"elengths, tra##ing heat in the lower atmos#here in a #rocess known as the greenhouse
effect 45%Web6. Ward and 7rownlee 48++86 identified three cycles that moderate the greenhouse
effect and allow the Earth's surface to remain at a tem#erature where water can remain li3uid9
:late tectonics
$he carbon cycle
$he carbonate silicate cycle
2.1 Plate Tectonics
! ;wn calculations
!
Figure 1Plate Tectonics
$he Earth's crust, or lithos#here, is di"ided into sections, called #lates, which float ato# the
asthenos#here,. $he asthenos#here is made #lastic by the radioacti"e decay heat from the Earth's
interior. $he slow drift of these #lates is res#onsible for the motion of the continents and where the
#lates meet is the site of "olcanoes and earth3uakes. <ew crust is constantly being created in the
mid/ocean ridges. $he s#reading ocean floor #lates are subducted under the continental #lates, the
rock remelting.
$he magma bubbling u# from the mid/ocean ridges reacts with the ocean's water to form hydrated
minerals, cooling to granite and andesite. $hese are lighter than the basic basalt that forms the
ma=ority of the #lates. When the oceanic #late is subducted, the lighter silicates float u#wards. $hus
the continental #lates cannot sink beneath the oceanic #lates and the si)e of the continents is
continually increasing 4Ward > 7rownlee 8++86. Without water there would be no continental crust
and no subduction. $he #lates would be locked together, e"entually forming a continuous crust, as
is seen on (enus and .ars.
2.2 The Carbon Cycle
-arbon is a fundamental element in li"ing tissue. $hrough the #rocess of #hotosynthesis #lants take
in carbon dio'ide and release o'ygen, while res#iration in animals reacts atmos#heric o'ygen with
consumed carbon to release carbon dio'ide back into the atmos#here. hould a life form become
become buried, their carbon may be subducted by #lant tectonics and remo"ed from the cycle or
re#laced by carbon dio'ide released through "olcanic acti"ity.
2.3 The Carbonate!ilicate Cycle
As noted by Arrhenius in !?9*, carbon dio'ide can react with water to form carbonic acid. $he
carbonic acid, in the #resence of water, can react with silicate minerals to form carbonates of
calcium and magnesium, which then #reci#itate out. :hyto#lankton and other organisms also
#roduce shells of calcium carbonate, which drift to the sea floor to form limestone. If subducted, the
limestone can melt and react with other com#ounds and may re/release the carbon dio'ide into the
atmos#here through "olcanos 4E;Web6.
8
Figure 2The Carbon Cycle
3. The Cycles Brea"
$he interaction between the biological, geological and erosion #rocesses described in ection 8
ha"e ke#t Earth's climate remarkably stable for billions of years. $he #lanet has e"en rebounded
from #ossible global free)ings 4%offman > chrag 8+++6. %owe"er, like a li"ing organism, the
cycles that kee# the #lanet ali"e cannot be continued for eternity.
3.1 The #reenhouse $ffect and the %uture of the Carbon Cycle
%umans are disru#ting the natural flow of the carbon cycle by releasing geologically se3uestered
carbon in the form of fossil fuels 4coal, oil, natural gas6 back into the atmos#here. $his acti"ity is
belie"ed to be causing an increase in a"erage global tem#eratures due to an enhanced greenhouse
effect.
$he a"ailability of fossil fuels is, howe"er, finite, so e"entually the additional human contributions
should cease. ince #hotosynthesis began two billion years ago, life has reduced the concentration
of carbon dio'ide in the air from u# to !+@ of the atmos#here 4Aasting !9916 to current le"els of
less than +.+4@. $he reduction of carbon dio'ide is #redicted to continue 4-aldeira > Aasting
!9986 until #hotosynthesis is no longer sustainable at some stage between 0++ and ?++ million years
from the #resent 4Branck et al !9996. $he death of #lant life will lead to an end to the #roduction of
o'ygen, which will react with rocks and other atmos#heric gases, reducing its atmos#heric
concentration. E"entually, o'ygen le"els will be low enough to mean the end of animal life as well.
3.2 The $nd of Plate Tectonics & a 'e( )andsca*e
$he face of the Earth has changed many times in its history and the continents are still in motion
today. In around 80+ million years from now a new su#ercontinent may form as the final
configuration of the continents 4:alWeb6. $his will ha"e great conse3uences for the climate, animal
and #lant life as well as erosional #rocess that tra# carbon dio'ide 4Ward > 7rownlee 8++86.
1
Figure The !ew Pangea "C# $# Scotese%
Ward and 7rownlee 48++86 re#ort on research by Ae"in Cahnle which suggests that the heat
generated by radioacti"e decay in the Earth's interior may decline enough to sto# #late tectonics
sometime between 0++ and ?++ million years in the future. It is #ossible that indi"idual hot s#ots
will remain to form "olcanoes, but the geological cycling of carbon would largely sto#. E"en if the
decline is not enough to sto# tectonic acti"ity, the loss of Earth's oceans will ensure that the
mo"ement of the #lates will end.
3.3 The +ceans $,a*orate & -eturn of the #reenhouse $ffect
Aasting et al 4!9?46 #redict increased e"a#oration of the oceans due to the rising luminosity of the
un. Water "a#our is a #owerful greenhouse gas and this will further increase the surface
tem#erature of the Earth and the e"a#oration rate. $he increased flu' from the un will also
increase the rate of #hotodissociation of hydrogen from o'ygen, allowing the former element to
esca#e from the #lanet. ;"er a #eriod of 8.0 billion years from now the Earth will lose its oceans
and may e'#erience a runaway greenhouse effect similar to that of (enus 4Aasting !9?*6.
4. The %uture of the !un
$he un, like the Earth, will e"ol"e and change o"er the ne't 4.9 billion years. $he con"ersion of
hydrogen to helium by fusion in the un's core decreases the number of #articles in the core,
com#ressing it further and increasing the core's tem#erature. $his allows the out layers of the un to
e'#and, increasing its luminosity. $he un is already 4+@ brighter than at its birth 4Breedman >
Aauffman, 8++86 and is e'#ected to increase it's luminosity by a similar amount o"er the ne't few
billion years 4Aasting !9?*6, doubling in si)e 4Ai##enhahn !9?16. $his is the #rocess that will
ensure that the Earth's oceans are baked from the surface.
4.1 A -ed #iant
$he un will undergo a further e'#ansion once it has con"erted all the hydrogen in its core into
helium. At this #oint the core will contract inwards, releasing heat and igniting hydrogen fusion in a
shell around the core. $he #ressure from the core burning will cause the un's outer layers to e'#and
to !++ times their #resent si)e. While the surface tem#erature of the un will dro# from 0?++A to
10++A with a #eak out#ut in the red s#ectrum, its huge si)e will lead to a luminosity thousands of
times greater than the #resent un 4Dorgensen !99!6. $hus 4.9 billion years from now we ha"e a
huge red, incredibly bright un dominating the burnt out husk of Earth.
4.2 Death of the !un
$he un may ha"e less that 8 E 1 billion years as a red giant before the ne't stage in its e"olution
takes #lace, the ste# to helium burning in the core 4Dorgensen !99!6. Bor a star the mass of the un,
this ha##ens suddenly in a #oint called the helium flash. $his core burning lasts only !++ million
years, followed by shell helium burning and a second red giant #hase. As fuel is used u#, the interior
undergoes #eriodic contractions which com#ress more hydrogen and helium, allowing fusion
#rocesses to begin again. $he burst of energy associated with ignitions blows off the weakly held
outer layers of the un, forming a #lanetary nebular and scouring whate"er remains to the #lanets.
E"entually, all fusion #rocesses will sto#, the core will com#ress to degenerate electron matter
4AlWeb6 and the un will die as a slowly cooling white dwarf, fading to black.
4
.. The %ate of the $arth
Fybicki and Denis 48++!6 undertook a detailed study of the final fate of the Earth as the un swells
into a red giant. $heir conclusions were de#endant on the models used to simulate the future state of
the un, the drag e'erted on the #lanets by the enlarged solar en"elo#e and tidal effects. .ost
models #redicted that both .ercury and (enus would e"entually be engulfed by the giant un. $he
fate of the Earth was uncertain, but they #ro"ided the following scenarios9
.ass loss from the un may increase the orbital distance of the Earth from the un
$he Earth may be slowed by drag from the outer le"els of the solar atmos#here, thus
decreasing the orbital distance
$he enlarged diameter of the un may lead to greater tidal interaction with the Earth,
again decreasing the orbital distance.
E"en if the Earth is not engulfed by a red giant un, conditions would be inhos#itable for life as we
know it. %owe"er, as the un heats u# it Earth will lose its now (enus/like atmos#here to re"eal the
sky once more.
/. The !"y at 'i0ht
We cross to the dark side of 4.9 billion years AD Earth to "iew the night sky. $he constellations
would look unrecogni)able to ancient Earthly eyes, as the motion of the stars and our solar system
through the gala'y has changed their #ositions relati"e to us and each other. ;ther stars ha"e
disa##eared, ending their li"es in a su#erno"ae or =ust fading away. ;ur own gala'y may ha"e
changed through collision with the .1!, or Andromeda, gala'y 4Ward > 7rownlee 8++86. E"en our
.oon looks different, orbiting much further away from the Earth and in the #rocess slowing the
#lanet's rotation. In the future, drag through the outer layers of the solar atmos#here could send it
s#iraling back into Earth, returning to the site of its birth, causing more de"astation to an already
wrecked #lanet.
1. +*tions for 2u3anity
Aorycansky et al 48++!6 suggest using flybys of massi"e comets to gra"itationally e'tend Earth's
orbit outwards as the un's luminosity increases. %owe"er, as we ha"e seen, other changes through
time will #robably render Earth's surface uninhabitable for #resent lifeforms. We may use
s#aceflight to esca#e to other #lanets in the solar system, although it is unlikely the gas giants or
their moons can be terraformed to our needs. Father, we may need to ada#t our own bodies to new
en"ironments or e"en into electronic entities li"ing in a simulated uni"erse. It is a sobering thought
that life on Earth which has e'isted for almost 4 billion years, could end in less than 0++ million.
4. Conclusion
As I stand on the Earth under a red giant un I reflect on the scoured landsca#e around me, de"oid
of #lants, animals, ocean and air. $here is no carbon cycle of res#iration of life, no tectonic cycle to
build mountains, nor ri"ers to wash sediment into the long e"a#orated oceans. In another cou#le of
billion years from now e"en the land beneath me may ha"e boiled away, the Earth swallowed by an
e"en larger un. Get that lies in the future, and for now I may s#read my magnetic fields, drink in
the solar wind and lets my electronic mind dream of days long ago.
0
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