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TDS Commodities CFTC 01 Aug 2014 PDF
TDS Commodities CFTC 01 Aug 2014 PDF
Palladium
specs
expected
that
improved
manufacturing in China would translate into better auto
sales
Futures
965,242
(49,768)
1,058,791
(53,211)
444,892
1,675
548,899
2,359
574,569
(6,057)
569,518
(11,316)
139,682
15,400
122,623
14,956
390,673
(43,711)
489,273
(41,895)
305,210
(13,725)
426,276
(12,597)
1,331,264
(13,018)
1,423,225
(31,983)
Natural Gas
759,215
(20,890)
776,201
(30,235)
RBOB Gasoline
92,187
(4,043)
92,115
(3,325)
RBOB Gasoline
44,509
(2,302)
44,855
(1,535)
Heating Oil
50,292
50,696
1,257
Heating Oil
58,936
(2,192)
59,516
(1,583)
2,625
Natural Gas
271
Gold
188,980
(8,855)
203,355
(9,298)
Gold
49,827
(1,862)
48,582
Silver
59,030
(5,247)
59,845
(4,203)
Silver
14,918
(1,834)
12,603
(439)
Platinum
53,827
(1,210)
54,742
(1,146)
Platinum
6,234
(793)
6,105
(812)
Palladium
32,666
Palladium
6,593
154
6,470
Copper
63,838
S&P 500
12,158
Canadian Dollar
56,459
(5,619)
56,562
(1,580)
473,286
5,844
Euro
U.S. T-Notes, 10-yr
813
30,983
(6,253)
63,654
583
12,200
57,060
549
(6,403)
686
Copper
59,519
S&P 500
(5,126)
Canadian Dollar
56,263
(1,810)
Euro
431,616
24,992
9,598
(1,770)
59,406
9,995
(409)
(7,729)
32,902
(7,319)
164,637
17,672
166,598
18,221
479,092
(26,509)
424,526
23,184
33,768
210
106
(1,828)
Futures
520,350
-51,443
509,892
-55,570
Futures
14.6%
11.1%
-1.0%
434,887
-21,457
446,895
-26,272
20.1%
-0.9%
15.6%
-0.9%
85,463
-29,986
62,997
-29,298
6.1%
-1.8%
3.6%
-1.5%
Natural Gas
572,050
7,872
647,025
-1,748
Natural Gas
10.5%
-0.1%
10.1%
0.0%
RBOB Gasoline
47,678
-1,741
47,260
-1,790
RBOB Gasoline
17.2%
0.5%
16.7%
0.6%
Heating Oil
-8,644
2,463
-8,820
2,840
Heating Oil
-2.6%
0.8%
-2.5%
0.8%
Gold
139,153
-6,993
154,773
-11,923
Gold
37.2%
1.1%
26.9%
1.0%
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Copper
S&P 500
Canadian Dollar
Euro
U.S. T-Notes, 10-yr
44,112
47,593
26,073
4,319
2,560
22,691
-108,075
-5,806
-3,413
-417
659
-4,483
373
2,110
-19,252
32,353
47,242
48,637
24,513
4,248
2,205
24,158
-110,335
7,090
-3,764
-334
443
-4,575
1,095
2,193
-20,031
1,808
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Copper
S&P 500
Canadian Dollar
Euro
U.S. T-Notes, 10-yr
27.8%
68.4%
57.4%
2.5%
1.7%
18.5%
-30.3%
-0.2%
-1.4%
0.5%
0.5%
-2.4%
0.2%
2.6%
-4.1%
1.2%
23.3%
64.8%
48.4%
2.4%
1.1%
17.1%
-26.2%
0.2%
-0.9%
0.8%
-0.4%
-2.5%
0.5%
2.0%
-3.5%
0.1%
Contract specifications: Crude Oil - 1000 bbl; Nat Gas* - 10,000 MMbtu; Gasoline - 42,000 gal; Heating Oil -42,000 gal; Gold - 100 oz; Silver - 5000 oz; Platinum - 50 oz; Palladium - 100 oz; Copper - 25,000 lbs; Wheat, Corn Soybeans - 5000 Bushels; S&P 500 - $250 X S&P 500; Canadian $ - C$100,000; Euro - 125,000
Note: Natural Gas ICE futures (2,500 MMbtu) are adjusted 1:4 to reflect contract size of NYMEX (10,000 MMbtu)
Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, TD Securities
100,000
1,300
1,200
50,000
1,100
100,000
50,000
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
1,000
3/Apr/12
150,000
Long Gold
Short Gold
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net
Contracts
COMEX Silver
$UD/oz
60,000
40
50,000
35
40,000
30
30,000
25
20,000
20
10,000
15
3/Oct/14
1,400
3/Jul/14
150,000
200,000
3/Apr/14
1,500
3/Jan/14
1,600
3/Oct/13
200,000
250,000
3/Jul/13
1,700
3/Apr/13
250,000
300,000
3/Oct/12
1,800
3/Jul/12
1,900
3/Apr/12
300,000
3/Jan/12
COMEX Gold
$UD/oz
3/Jan/13
COMEX Gold
3/Jan/12
Net
Contracts
Contracts
COMEX Silver
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
NYMEX Platinum
$UD/oz
1,800
1,700
50,000
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
Long Silver
Short Silver
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net
Contracts
60,000
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Oct/14
3/Apr/12
3/Jul/12
10,000
3/Jan/12
10
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Apr/12
3/Jan/12
3/Jul/12
20,000
Contracts
NYMEX Platinum
60,000
50,000
1,600
40,000
1,500
30,000
1,400
1,300
20,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
1,200
Long Platinum
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
1,000
3/Jan/12
10,000
3/Apr/12
1,100
3/Jan/12
10,000
Short Platinum
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Contracts
$UD/oz
950
35,000
900
30,000
20,000
700
15,000
Long Palladium
70,000
320
300
50,000
220
200
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
3/Jan/12
(40,000)
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
Long Copper
3/Oct/14
(30,000)
60,000
3/Jul/14
280
260
240
(20,000)
80,000
3/Jan/13
(10,000)
90,000
380
360
340
3/Oct/12
COMEX Copper
3/Jul/12
10,000
Contracts
3/Apr/12
$UD/lb
400
3/Jan/12
COMEX Copper
Short Palladium
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net
Contracts
20,000
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
500
3/Jan/12
5,000
3/Jan/14
550
3/Oct/13
5,000
10,000
3/Oct/13
600
3/Jul/13
650
3/Jul/13
10,000
750
3/Apr/13
15,000
25,000
3/Apr/13
800
3/Jan/13
20,000
3/Oct/12
850
3/Jul/12
25,000
NYMEX Palladium
3/Apr/12
NYMEX Palladium
3/Jan/12
Net
Contracts
30,000
Short Copper
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
700,000
110
600,000
105
500,000
Long WTI
115
300,000
110
250,000
105
200,000
100
150,000
95
100,000
90
50,000
Long Brent
NYMEX Gasoline
$UD/gal
360
100,000
340
80,000
320
60,000
300
40,000
280
20,000
260
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
Short Brent
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net
Contracts
120,000
3/Apr/14
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
85
3/Jan/12
350,000
3/Jan/14
50,000
400,000
120
3/Jan/13
100,000
450,000
125
3/Oct/12
150,000
3/Jul/12
200,000
Contracts
3/Apr/12
$UD/bbl
130
3/Jan/12
3/Apr/14
Short WTI
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net
Contracts
250,000
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
75
100,000
3/Oct/13
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
3/Jan/12
3/Jul/13
80
3/Jul/13
100,000
200,000
3/Oct/13
85
300,000
3/Jul/13
90
200,000
400,000
3/Apr/13
95
3/Apr/13
300,000
3/Jan/13
100
3/Oct/12
400,000
3/Jul/12
500,000
3/Apr/12
3/Jan/12
Net
Contracts
600,000
Contracts
NYMEX Gasoline
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
Long Gasoline
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
3/Jan/12
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
240
3/Jan/12
20,000
Short Gasoline
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
300
290
60,000
50,000
40,000
7.00
800,000
6.00
700,000
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
1.00
500,000
3/Oct/12
2.00
600,000
3/Jul/12
3.00
3/Apr/12
4.00
Contracts
3/Jan/12
$UD/MMbtu
5.00
3/Apr/12
3/Jan/12
Net
Contracts
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
(50,000)
(100,000)
(150,000)
(200,000)
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
3/Jan/12
10,000
3/Jan/12
250
240
(40,000)
3/Oct/13
(30,000)
30,000
20,000
3/Oct/13
(20,000)
3/Jul/13
280
270
260
(10,000)
3/Jul/13
90,000
80,000
70,000
3/Apr/13
20,000
10,000
100,000
330
320
310
3/Apr/13
30,000
3/Jan/13
40,000
Contracts
3/Oct/12
$UD/gal
340
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
Net
Contracts
50,000
Note: Natural Gas ICE futures (2,500 MMbtu) are adjusted 1:4 to reflect contract size of NYMEX (10,000 MMbtu)
CBOT Wheat
$UD/bsh
80,000
1,000
60,000
950
900
40,000
Contracts
CBOT Wheat
250,000
200,000
850
20,000
800
150,000
750
700
(20,000)
100,000
650
Long Corn
Contracts
300,000
1,900
350,000
250,000
1,800
300,000
150,000
1,500
200,000
100,000
1,400
150,000
1,300
50,000
1,200
1,100
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
1,000
3/Jan/12
(50,000)
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
3/Apr/14
250,000
100,000
50,000
3/Jan/13
1,600
3/Oct/12
200,000
3/Jul/12
1,700
CBOT Soybean
3/Apr/12
$UD/bsh
3/Jan/12
CBOT Soybean
3/Jan/14
Short Corn
Net
Contracts
3/Oct/14
3/Jan/12
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
Long Soybean
3/Oct/14
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
3/Apr/12
370
3/Jan/12
(200,000)
100,000
3/Jul/14
420
3/Jul/14
470
(100,000)
200,000
3/Apr/14
520
3/Oct/13
300,000
3/Apr/14
570
3/Jan/14
620
3/Jul/13
100,000
400,000
3/Jan/14
670
3/Oct/13
720
200,000
500,000
3/Jul/13
770
3/Apr/13
300,000
600,000
3/Jan/13
820
CBOT Corn
3/Oct/12
870
Contracts
3/Jul/12
$UD/bsh
400,000
3/Oct/13
Short Wheat
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
3/Apr/12
CBOT Corn
3/Jul/13
Long Wheat
Net
Contracts
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jan/12
3/Oct/14
3/Jul/14
50,000
3/Apr/13
3/Apr/14
3/Jan/14
3/Oct/13
3/Jul/13
3/Apr/13
3/Jan/13
3/Oct/12
3/Jul/12
500
3/Apr/12
(80,000)
3/Jan/12
550
3/Jul/12
600
(60,000)
3/Apr/12
(40,000)
Short Soybean
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Spot Price
Gold *
Silver *
Platinum *
Palladium *
Copper ** - lbs
- tonnes
Zinc ** - lbs
- tonnes
Lead ** - lbs
- tonnes
Nickel ** - lbs
- tonnes
Aluminum ** - lbs
- tonnes
Molybdenum +
Iron Ore *+
Nymex Crude Oil +Brent Crude Oil +Heating Oil -+
Gasoline -+
Natural Gas -AECO Natural Gas -Uranium ++
Newcastle Thermal Coal-
2014
2015
Annual Averages
2014F
2015F
Q1A
Q2E
Q3F
Q4F
Q1F
Q2F
Q3F
Q4F
2013
1,307
20.93
1,497
881
1,292
20.52
1,430
743
1,288
19.60
1,445
815
1,260
19.80
1,600
825
1,250
19.64
1,675
850
1,235
19.50
1,725
825
1,250
19.75
1,750
850
1,300
20.00
1,775
825
1,300
20.25
1,750
825
1,412
23.89
1,490
728
1,273
19.87
1,539
808
1,271
19.88
1,750
831
3.17
6,990
1.05
2,306
0.99
2,174
8.49
18,725
0.90
1,988
13.35
96
3.21
7,077
0.92
2,028
0.96
2,116
6.60
14,551
0.78
1,720
9.95
123
3.07
6,768
0.93
2,050
0.95
2,094
8.36
18,431
0.82
1,808
13.80
103
3.12
6,878
1.02
2,249
1.02
2,249
8.50
18,739
0.84
1,852
14.75
100
3.10
6,834
1.06
2,337
1.05
2,315
8.50
18,739
0.84
1,852
14.50
110
3.00
6,614
1.12
2,469
1.10
2,425
9.25
20,393
0.84
1,852
14.00
110
3.00
6,614
1.12
2,469
1.12
2,469
9.50
20,944
0.84
1,852
14.00
106
2.80
6,173
1.14
2,513
1.12
2,469
9.75
21,495
0.86
1,896
14.50
105
2.80
6,173
1.14
2,513
1.12
2,469
10.00
22,046
0.86
1,896
14.50
100
3.34
7,357
0.87
1,910
0.97
2,138
6.82
15,037
0.84
1,848
10.35
136
3.13
6,889
0.98
2,166
1.00
2,194
7.99
17,615
0.82
1,808
13.25
109
2.90
6,393
1.13
2,491
1.12
2,458
9.63
21,219
0.85
1,874
14.25
105
103
107
2.85
2.88
3.87
3.78
29
68
99
107
3.02
2.77
4.75
4.30
35
78
103
108
2.95
3.00
4.60
4.28
30
72
106
113
3.00
3.14
4.50
4.15
30
74
100
106
3.05
3.10
4.75
4.25
35
80
96
102
3.00
3.05
4.75
4.25
38
82
96
102
2.95
3.15
4.50
4.00
40
82
92
98
2.95
3.10
4.25
3.75
44
82
94
100
2.90
3.00
4.25
3.75
48
82
98
109
2.99
2.85
3.73
3.13
39
84
102
109
3.00
2.99
4.66
4.26
33
76
94
100
2.96
3.09
4.45
3.95
43
85
Note: *London PM Fix $/oz., **LME $/lb., +Molybdenum equivalent to moly oxide, FOB USA,
*+CFR China, 62% Fe, dry $/tonnes, +- $/bbl, -+ $/gal., -- $/mmbtu, ++pre-2011 Uranium price is Nymex U308 Sw ap
indicator post 2011 is NYMEX, +* Japan-Australia Spot, $/tonne FOB, -Japan CIF steam coal marker -New castle, $/tonne
Mike Dragosits
Senior Commodity Strategist
mike.dragosits@tdsecurities.com
+1 416 983 8075
Michael Loewen
Commodities Strategist
michael.r.loewen@tdsecurities.com
+1 416 982 5816
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