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Commodities: CFTC Weekly Report

Rates, FX and Commodities Research


01, August 2014 | TD Securities | Toronto

CFTC Commitment of Traders ReportWeek Ending July 29th, 2014


With heightened geopolitical tensions subsiding, gold

Copper investors decided to take some money off the

specs to trimmed net long positioning, with longs down


and shorts up.

table as prices formed out a double top technical


pattern in July

Silver tracked weaker along with gold and specs got a

Oil specs cut longs aggressively and augmented short

little uncomfortable approaching historical positioning


highs

Platinum specs struggled to choose direction as


fundamentals remain positive, but prices have failed to
reflect that upward bias

Palladium

specs
expected
that
improved
manufacturing in China would translate into better auto
sales

positioning as growing gasoline inventories and less


concern that sanctions will materially impact Russian
supplies drove prices lower

Investors cut both long and short natgas exposure as it


becomes increasingly difficult to call price moves,
following a period of sharp corrections at a time that
inventories grew robustly, while still less than normal

Specs went net short gasoline amid outsized inventory


gains which suggested lower prices

Long Non-Commercial Position


Futures

Short Non-Commercial Position

Change Futures & Options Change

Futures

Change Futures & Options Change

WTI + Brent Crude Oil

965,242

(49,768)

1,058,791

(53,211)

WTI + Brent Crude Oil

444,892

1,675

548,899

2,359

WTI Crude Oil

574,569

(6,057)

569,518

(11,316)

WTI Crude Oil

139,682

15,400

122,623

14,956

Brent Crude Oil

390,673

(43,711)

489,273

(41,895)

Brent Crude Oil

305,210

(13,725)

426,276

(12,597)

1,331,264

(13,018)

1,423,225

(31,983)

Natural Gas

759,215

(20,890)

776,201

(30,235)

RBOB Gasoline

92,187

(4,043)

92,115

(3,325)

RBOB Gasoline

44,509

(2,302)

44,855

(1,535)

Heating Oil

50,292

50,696

1,257

Heating Oil

58,936

(2,192)

59,516

(1,583)
2,625

Natural Gas

271

Gold

188,980

(8,855)

203,355

(9,298)

Gold

49,827

(1,862)

48,582

Silver

59,030

(5,247)

59,845

(4,203)

Silver

14,918

(1,834)

12,603

(439)

Platinum

53,827

(1,210)

54,742

(1,146)

Platinum

6,234

(793)

6,105

(812)

Palladium

32,666

Palladium

6,593

154

6,470

Copper

63,838

S&P 500

12,158

Canadian Dollar

56,459

(5,619)

56,562

(1,580)

473,286

5,844

Euro
U.S. T-Notes, 10-yr

813

30,983

(6,253)

63,654

583

12,200
57,060

549
(6,403)
686

Copper

59,519

S&P 500

(5,126)

Canadian Dollar

56,263

(1,810)

Euro

431,616

24,992

U.S. T-Notes, 10-yr

Net Non-Commercial Position

9,598

(1,770)

59,406
9,995

(409)

(7,729)

32,902

(7,319)

164,637

17,672

166,598

18,221

479,092

(26,509)

424,526

23,184

33,768

210

106
(1,828)

Net Non-Commercial Position (% of Open Interest)

Futures

Change Futures & Options Change

WTI + Brent Crude Oil

520,350

-51,443

509,892

-55,570

WTI + Brent Crude Oil

Futures
14.6%

Change Futures & Options Change


-1.1%

11.1%

-1.0%

WTI Crude Oil

434,887

-21,457

446,895

-26,272

WTI Crude Oil

20.1%

-0.9%

15.6%

-0.9%

Brent Crude Oil

85,463

-29,986

62,997

-29,298

Brent Crude Oil

6.1%

-1.8%

3.6%

-1.5%

Natural Gas

572,050

7,872

647,025

-1,748

Natural Gas

10.5%

-0.1%

10.1%

0.0%

RBOB Gasoline

47,678

-1,741

47,260

-1,790

RBOB Gasoline

17.2%

0.5%

16.7%

0.6%

Heating Oil

-8,644

2,463

-8,820

2,840

Heating Oil

-2.6%

0.8%

-2.5%

0.8%

Gold

139,153

-6,993

154,773

-11,923

Gold

37.2%

1.1%

26.9%

1.0%

Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Copper
S&P 500
Canadian Dollar
Euro
U.S. T-Notes, 10-yr

44,112
47,593
26,073
4,319
2,560
22,691
-108,075
-5,806

-3,413
-417
659
-4,483
373
2,110
-19,252
32,353

47,242
48,637
24,513
4,248
2,205
24,158
-110,335
7,090

-3,764
-334
443
-4,575
1,095
2,193
-20,031
1,808

Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Copper
S&P 500
Canadian Dollar
Euro
U.S. T-Notes, 10-yr

27.8%
68.4%
57.4%
2.5%
1.7%
18.5%
-30.3%
-0.2%

-1.4%
0.5%
0.5%
-2.4%
0.2%
2.6%
-4.1%
1.2%

23.3%
64.8%
48.4%
2.4%
1.1%
17.1%
-26.2%
0.2%

-0.9%
0.8%
-0.4%
-2.5%
0.5%
2.0%
-3.5%
0.1%

Contract specifications: Crude Oil - 1000 bbl; Nat Gas* - 10,000 MMbtu; Gasoline - 42,000 gal; Heating Oil -42,000 gal; Gold - 100 oz; Silver - 5000 oz; Platinum - 50 oz; Palladium - 100 oz; Copper - 25,000 lbs; Wheat, Corn Soybeans - 5000 Bushels; S&P 500 - $250 X S&P 500; Canadian $ - C$100,000; Euro - 125,000
Note: Natural Gas ICE futures (2,500 MMbtu) are adjusted 1:4 to reflect contract size of NYMEX (10,000 MMbtu)
Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, TD Securities

Commodities: CFTC Weekly Report


1 August 2014 | TD Securities | Toronto

CFTC Metals Charts


Contracts

100,000

1,300
1,200

50,000

1,100

Gold Net Spec Position (lhs)

100,000
50,000

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

1,000
3/Apr/12

150,000

Long Gold

Gold Price (rhs)

Short Gold
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts

COMEX Silver

$UD/oz

60,000

40

50,000

35

40,000

30

30,000

25

20,000

20

10,000

15

3/Oct/14

1,400

3/Jul/14

150,000

200,000

3/Apr/14

1,500

3/Jan/14

1,600

3/Oct/13

200,000

250,000

3/Jul/13

1,700

3/Apr/13

250,000

300,000

3/Oct/12

1,800

3/Jul/12

1,900

3/Apr/12

300,000

3/Jan/12

COMEX Gold

$UD/oz

3/Jan/13

COMEX Gold

3/Jan/12

Net
Contracts

Contracts

COMEX Silver

80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000

Silver Net Spec Position (lhs)

NYMEX Platinum

$UD/oz
1,800
1,700

50,000

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

Long Silver

Silver Price (rhs)

Short Silver
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts
60,000

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Oct/14

3/Apr/12

3/Jul/12

10,000
3/Jan/12

10

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Apr/12

3/Jan/12

3/Jul/12

20,000

Contracts

NYMEX Platinum

60,000
50,000

1,600
40,000

1,500

30,000

1,400

1,300

20,000

40,000
30,000

20,000

1,200

Platinum Net Spec Position (lhs)

Platinum Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Long Platinum

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

1,000
3/Jan/12

10,000

3/Apr/12

1,100

3/Jan/12

10,000

Short Platinum
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Commodities: CFTC Weekly Report


Rates, FX and Commodities Research
01, August 2014 | TD Securities | Toronto

Contracts
$UD/oz
950

35,000

900

30,000

20,000

700

15,000

Long Palladium

Palladium Price (rhs)

70,000

320
300

50,000

220
200

Copper Net Spec Position (lhs)

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

3/Jan/12

(40,000)

Copper Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

40,000

30,000
20,000

10,000
-

Long Copper

3/Oct/14

(30,000)

60,000

3/Jul/14

280
260
240

(20,000)

80,000

3/Jan/13

(10,000)

90,000

380
360
340

3/Oct/12

COMEX Copper

3/Jul/12

10,000

Contracts

3/Apr/12

$UD/lb
400

3/Jan/12

COMEX Copper

Short Palladium
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts
20,000

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

Palladium Net Spec Position (lhs)

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

500
3/Jan/12

5,000

3/Jan/14

550

3/Oct/13

5,000

10,000

3/Oct/13

600

3/Jul/13

650

3/Jul/13

10,000

750

3/Apr/13

15,000

25,000

3/Apr/13

800

3/Jan/13

20,000

3/Oct/12

850

3/Jul/12

25,000

NYMEX Palladium

3/Apr/12

NYMEX Palladium

3/Jan/12

Net
Contracts
30,000

Short Copper
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Commodities: CFTC Weekly Report


1 August 2014 | TD Securities | Toronto

CFTC Energy Charts


Contracts
$UD/bbl
115

700,000

110

600,000

105

500,000

Long WTI

WTI Price (rhs)

115

300,000

110

250,000

105

200,000

100

150,000

95

100,000

90

50,000

Brent Net Spec Position (lhs)

Long Brent

Brent Price (rhs)

NYMEX Gasoline

$UD/gal
360

100,000

340

80,000

320

60,000

300

40,000

280

20,000

260

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

Short Brent
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts
120,000

3/Apr/14

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

85
3/Jan/12

350,000

3/Jan/14

50,000

400,000

120

3/Jan/13

100,000

450,000

125

3/Oct/12

150,000

NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil

3/Jul/12

200,000

Contracts

3/Apr/12

$UD/bbl
130

3/Jan/12

NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil

3/Apr/14

Short WTI
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts
250,000

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

75

100,000

3/Oct/13

WTI Net Spec Position (lhs)

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

3/Jan/12

3/Jul/13

80

3/Jul/13

100,000

200,000

3/Oct/13

85

300,000

3/Jul/13

90

200,000

400,000

3/Apr/13

95

3/Apr/13

300,000

3/Jan/13

100

3/Oct/12

400,000

3/Jul/12

500,000

NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil

3/Apr/12

NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil

3/Jan/12

Net
Contracts
600,000

Contracts

NYMEX Gasoline

160,000
140,000

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000

Gasoline Net Spec Position (lhs)

Gasoline Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Long Gasoline

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

3/Jan/12

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

240
3/Jan/12

20,000

Short Gasoline
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Commodities: CFTC Weekly Report


Rates, FX and Commodities Research
01, August 2014 | TD Securities | Toronto

300
290

60,000
50,000
40,000

Long Heating Oil

Heating Oil Price (rhs)

7.00

800,000

6.00

700,000

Natural Gas Price (rhs)

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

Long Natural Gas

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

1.00

500,000

3/Oct/12

2.00

600,000

3/Jul/12

3.00

NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas

3/Apr/12

4.00

Natural Gas Net Spec Position (lhs)

Contracts

3/Jan/12

$UD/MMbtu

5.00

3/Apr/12

3/Jan/12

NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas

Short Heating Oil


Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
(50,000)
(100,000)
(150,000)
(200,000)

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

3/Jan/12

Heating Oil Net Spec Position (lhs)

10,000
3/Jan/12

250
240

(40,000)

3/Oct/13

(30,000)

30,000
20,000

3/Oct/13

(20,000)

3/Jul/13

280
270
260

(10,000)

3/Jul/13

90,000
80,000
70,000

3/Apr/13

20,000

10,000

100,000

330
320
310

3/Apr/13

30,000

NYMEX Heating Oil

3/Jan/13

40,000

Contracts

3/Oct/12

$UD/gal
340

3/Jul/12

NYMEX Heating Oil

3/Apr/12

Net
Contracts
50,000

Short Natural Gas


Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Note: Natural Gas ICE futures (2,500 MMbtu) are adjusted 1:4 to reflect contract size of NYMEX (10,000 MMbtu)

Commodities: CFTC Weekly Report


1 August 2014 | TD Securities | Toronto

CFTC Agricultural Charts


Net
Contracts

CBOT Wheat

$UD/bsh

80,000

1,000

60,000

950
900

40,000

Contracts

CBOT Wheat

250,000
200,000

850

20,000

800

150,000

750
700

(20,000)

100,000

650

Wheat Price (rhs)

Corn Price (rhs)

Long Corn

Contracts

300,000

1,900

350,000

250,000

1,800

300,000

150,000

1,500

200,000

100,000

1,400

150,000

1,300

50,000

1,200

1,100

Soybean Net Spec Position (lhs)

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

1,000
3/Jan/12

(50,000)

Soybean Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

3/Apr/14

250,000

100,000
50,000

3/Jan/13

1,600

3/Oct/12

200,000

3/Jul/12

1,700

CBOT Soybean

3/Apr/12

$UD/bsh

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

3/Jan/12

CBOT Soybean

3/Jan/14

Short Corn

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts

3/Oct/14

3/Jan/12

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

Long Soybean

3/Oct/14

Corn Net Spec Position (lhs)

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

3/Apr/12

370

3/Jan/12

(200,000)

100,000

3/Jul/14

420

3/Jul/14

470

(100,000)

200,000

3/Apr/14

520

3/Oct/13

300,000

3/Apr/14

570

3/Jan/14

620

3/Jul/13

100,000

400,000

3/Jan/14

670

3/Oct/13

720

200,000

500,000

3/Jul/13

770

3/Apr/13

300,000

600,000

3/Jan/13

820

CBOT Corn

3/Oct/12

870

Contracts

3/Jul/12

$UD/bsh

400,000

3/Oct/13

Short Wheat
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

3/Apr/12

CBOT Corn

3/Jul/13

Long Wheat

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net
Contracts

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jan/12

3/Oct/14

3/Jul/14

50,000

3/Apr/13

Wheat Net Spec Position (lhs)

3/Apr/14

3/Jan/14

3/Oct/13

3/Jul/13

3/Apr/13

3/Jan/13

3/Oct/12

3/Jul/12

500
3/Apr/12

(80,000)
3/Jan/12

550

3/Jul/12

600

(60,000)

3/Apr/12

(40,000)

Short Soybean
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Commodities: CFTC Weekly Report


1 August 2014 | TD Securities | Toronto

Commodity Price Forecasts


Commodity

Spot Price

Gold *
Silver *
Platinum *
Palladium *
Copper ** - lbs
- tonnes
Zinc ** - lbs
- tonnes
Lead ** - lbs
- tonnes
Nickel ** - lbs
- tonnes
Aluminum ** - lbs
- tonnes
Molybdenum +
Iron Ore *+
Nymex Crude Oil +Brent Crude Oil +Heating Oil -+
Gasoline -+
Natural Gas -AECO Natural Gas -Uranium ++
Newcastle Thermal Coal-

2014

2015

Annual Averages
2014F
2015F

Q1A

Q2E

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

2013

1,307
20.93
1,497
881

1,292
20.52
1,430
743

1,288
19.60
1,445
815

1,260
19.80
1,600
825

1,250
19.64
1,675
850

1,235
19.50
1,725
825

1,250
19.75
1,750
850

1,300
20.00
1,775
825

1,300
20.25
1,750
825

1,412
23.89
1,490
728

1,273
19.87
1,539
808

1,271
19.88
1,750
831

3.17
6,990
1.05
2,306
0.99
2,174
8.49
18,725
0.90
1,988
13.35
96

3.21
7,077
0.92
2,028
0.96
2,116
6.60
14,551
0.78
1,720
9.95
123

3.07
6,768
0.93
2,050
0.95
2,094
8.36
18,431
0.82
1,808
13.80
103

3.12
6,878
1.02
2,249
1.02
2,249
8.50
18,739
0.84
1,852
14.75
100

3.10
6,834
1.06
2,337
1.05
2,315
8.50
18,739
0.84
1,852
14.50
110

3.00
6,614
1.12
2,469
1.10
2,425
9.25
20,393
0.84
1,852
14.00
110

3.00
6,614
1.12
2,469
1.12
2,469
9.50
20,944
0.84
1,852
14.00
106

2.80
6,173
1.14
2,513
1.12
2,469
9.75
21,495
0.86
1,896
14.50
105

2.80
6,173
1.14
2,513
1.12
2,469
10.00
22,046
0.86
1,896
14.50
100

3.34
7,357
0.87
1,910
0.97
2,138
6.82
15,037
0.84
1,848
10.35
136

3.13
6,889
0.98
2,166
1.00
2,194
7.99
17,615
0.82
1,808
13.25
109

2.90
6,393
1.13
2,491
1.12
2,458
9.63
21,219
0.85
1,874
14.25
105

103
107
2.85
2.88
3.87
3.78
29
68

99
107
3.02
2.77
4.75
4.30
35
78

103
108
2.95
3.00
4.60
4.28
30
72

106
113
3.00
3.14
4.50
4.15
30
74

100
106
3.05
3.10
4.75
4.25
35
80

96
102
3.00
3.05
4.75
4.25
38
82

96
102
2.95
3.15
4.50
4.00
40
82

92
98
2.95
3.10
4.25
3.75
44
82

94
100
2.90
3.00
4.25
3.75
48
82

98
109
2.99
2.85
3.73
3.13
39
84

102
109
3.00
2.99
4.66
4.26
33
76

94
100
2.96
3.09
4.45
3.95
43
85

Note: *London PM Fix $/oz., **LME $/lb., +Molybdenum equivalent to moly oxide, FOB USA,

F = Forecast, E = Estimate, A = Actual

*+CFR China, 62% Fe, dry $/tonnes, +- $/bbl, -+ $/gal., -- $/mmbtu, ++pre-2011 Uranium price is Nymex U308 Sw ap
indicator post 2011 is NYMEX, +* Japan-Australia Spot, $/tonne FOB, -Japan CIF steam coal marker -New castle, $/tonne

All forecasts are period averages


Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Commodities Research Team:


Bart Melek
Head of Commodity Strategy
bart.melek@tdsecurities.com
+1 416 983 9288

Mike Dragosits
Senior Commodity Strategist
mike.dragosits@tdsecurities.com
+1 416 983 8075

Michael Loewen
Commodities Strategist
michael.r.loewen@tdsecurities.com
+1 416 982 5816

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made in this regard. Conclusions and opinions do not guarantee any future event or performance. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official
confirmation of terms. It is based on public information. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on any returns detailed. Historic information or performance is not
indicative of future returns. The information is subject to change without notice. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily express those of The Toronto
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