Global Zero: World without Nuclear Weapons

By Irshad Ali Sodhar (FSP)

Outline
1. Introduction
2. Brief history of nuclear weapons
3. Perils of nuclear weapons
. !eed to eli"inate nuclear weapons
#. $lo%al &ero initiati'e
(. Is this )oal achie'a%le* +es,
a. -istorical support
%. Political will
c. Stron) pu%lic support
d. !ew leadership
.. -ow to achie'e it* Procedure/Strate)y,
a. 0atification of !P1/21B1
%. 0eduction %y the 3S and 0ussia
c. 4li"ination %y all nuclear states
d. Follow up, control "echanis"
5. 2reation of International !uclear Fuel6Ban7
8. Ad'anta)es of nuclear &ero
19. 2onclusion
:1his is the "o"ent to %e)in the wor7 of see7in) the peace of world without nuclear
weapons; (Bara7 O%a"a)
<an has achie'ed tre"endous pro)ress in de'elopin) scientific technolo)y for the
welfare and well6%ein) of hu"anity= %ut si"ultaneously= he has also de'eloped weapons
for his own destruction. 1o ac>uire power?the "ost fla)rant of all passions?he created
weapons includin) e@plosi'e= che"ical= %iolo)ical and nuclear. A"on) the"= the nuclear
weapons are the "ost destructi'e causin) "ass destruction. 1hou)h= these ha'e %een
used once in history durin) the Aorld Aar6II= these ha'e created a perpetual fear of
annihilation a"on) all hu"ans. !ow= with the e'ol'in) of a "ulti6cultural )lo%alised
world= there is an increase in "o"entu" to de'elop a consensus for achie'in) $lo%al
Bero6 eli"ination of all nuclear weapons. 1o succeed in this initiati'e= the need is to sit
to)ether= conte"plate= de'ise a strate)y and a)ree to di'ert this capa%ility fro" weapons
to welfare of hu"anity. 1he "ost resoundin) ar)u"ent= )eneratin) ur)e to achie'e this
surpassa%le tas7 lies in the %rief history of apocalyptic perils of nuclear weapons.
1he perils of ato"ic weapons were "anifest as the two cities of Capan were wrea7ed
when the %o"%s were dropped on the". In -iroshi"a= so"e .#=999 people were
i""ediately 7illed %y %last= fire and radiation. Another .9=999 died %y the end of 18#.
1hree days later in !a)asa7i= plutoniu" %o"% 7illed a%out 9=999 people i""ediately=
another .#=999 died %y the end of 18#. Fi'e days after !a)asa7iDs flattenin)= Capan
surrendered. But the i"pact didnDt stop there. 1housands people died in followin) years
due to radiation. 1ens of thousands %eca"e disa%led. !ot only the people present at the
ti"e suffered %ut the Eun%ornD as well. 1housands others were %orn with defor"ities and
)enetic disorders due to which successi'e )enerations ha'e suffered.
1he A"ericans and Capanese learned different lessons fro" these %o"%in)s. :1he
A"ericans lesson wasF the nuclear weapons win wars= and therefore ha'e 'alue. 1he
Capanese learned that hu"an %ein) and nuclear weapons cannot co6e@ist.; (Ga'id
Hrie)er= President !uclear A)e Peace Foundation). -owe'er= the dan)er posed %y
nuclear weapons today is far )reater than the destruction they caused in -iroshi"a and
!a)asa7i.
1oday= the nu"%er of nuclear weapons around the world is a%out 39=999 %o"%s with far
)reater wei)ht and destruction power. 4'en a fraction of these weapons could put an end
to hu"an as well as other species on our planet. It is clear that if we donDt achie'e
E$lo%al BeroD= our planet is always at ris7= of %ein) con'erted into a E$round BeroD. 1his
could happen not only due to a deli%erate act %ut also accidental incident. 1herefore=
there is a stron) reason that Ethese weapons "ust %e a%olished %efore they a%olish usD.
1he need to eli"inate nuclear weapons is not only %ecause these can %e used for
destruction in war %ut also %ecause they pose e>ual dan)er in ti"es of peace. 1here ha'e
%een :2lose 2alls; to annihilation in 'arious occasions. IIn 188#J President Boris +eltsin
was infor"ed that a nuclear "issile was speedin) towards the heart of 0ussia. 0ussian
nuclear forces= already on hair6tri))er alert= were put in e'en hi)her alert. 0ussian policy
called for a :launch on warnin);. 1he fate of the planet hun) in the %alance. +eltsin
wisely waited. And within those "o"ents= the alar" declared false. :An uni"a)ina%le
nuclear disaster had %arely %een a'oided;= declared A"ericaDs Gefense <onitor= 2enter
for Gefence Infor"ation= Gece"%er 2(= 1888.
Another= i"portant incident too7 place in the 3S on Au)ust 31= 299.. Air Force crew
loaded si@ li'e nuclear warheads onto a 56#2 Bo"%er and flew fro" E<inot Air Force
BaseD in !orth Ga7ota to EBar7sda7 Air Force BaseD in cruisin) o'er the countryDs
heartland (Around 1# states). 4ach warhead was 19 ti"es "ore powerful than the ato"ic
%o"%s dropped on -iroshi"a and !a)asa7i. In analysis report= A"ericaDs Gefence
science Board (GSB) re'ealed that Esi@ of the planetDs "ost powerful weapons were
"issin) and no one noticed until they had landed in Kouisiana after fli)ht of 3 L hours.D
1he report concluded that Ehu"an error was at the heart of the incident.D
1his incident underscores the ris7 of accidental nuclear e@plosion threat due to Ehu"an
errorD e'en in the country of its ori)in and in the Epeace ti"esD. It is i"portant to note that
this incident occurred in the 3S= which clai"s to e"ploy worldDs %est safety standards for
nuclear weapons. Ahile the 3S itself 7eeps e@pressin) concern o'er the safety of
Pa7istanDs nuclear arsenal.
It is learnt fro" these incidents that the hu"anity is at the ris7 of Must sin)le hu"an error=
if the nuclear weapons e@ist in the world. 1herefore= wisdo" calls for eli"ination of all
nuclear weapons in order to "a7e the future of hu"anityNour )eneration and our future
)enerations ? safe and secure.
In addition= the 2old Aar which was the pushin) force %ehind nuclear race has ended two
decades a)o. Also due to the interdependence of states in the current scenario= there is
unli7eness of re'i'al of such conflicts.
<oreo'er= the presence of nuclear weapons in so"e states pro'ides reason and prete@t for
other a"%itious nations to ac>uire the sa"e status. 1his unwise race has itself caused
de'astatin) effects on econo"y and hu"an de'elop"ent= particularly in de'elopin)
countries.
One of the "aMor world powers= the 3SS0 too= collapsed under the hea'y %urden of
e@traordinary defence spendin) on econo"y. 1he de'elopin) countries li7e India=
Pa7istan= and !orth Horea also Moined the race. 1hey did succeed in ac>uirin) nuclear
weapons %ut their poor population is sufferin) fro" a%Mect po'erty. A country li7e
Pa7istan= which is "erely sur'i'in) at the ed)e of econo"ic insol'ency= could )ain "uch
econo"ic )rowth= had the resources %een utilised for the welfare of people. Iranians are
%earin) the sanctions i"posed %y western powers throu)h the 3! for pursuin) nuclear
technolo)y= which accordin) to the"= is ai"ed at ac>uirin) weapons.
Besides= the ar)u"ent to possess nuclear weapons to "aintain deterrence capa%ility has
also lost its )round. <ore the states ac>uire Enu7esD= "ore the ris7 of their use %uilds6up.
<oreo'er= the presence of nu7es always poses ris7 of slippin) into the hands of terrorists.
Ad"iral !oel $ayler= a for"er co""ander6in6chief of the Pacific 2o""and of 3S !a'y=
as7s= :Is difference of nuclear weapons still possi%le*; -e answers= :!o;. -e also
>uestions= :Goes nuclear disar"a"ent i"peril our security*; -e answers= :!o= it
enhances it.; As hu"an ? %ein)s are falli%le= deterrence is not a perfect syste". It can %e
failed %y hu"an error= accident= "iscalculation or si"ply "isco""unication. :Goes it
"a7e sense to ris7 the future of our cities and e'en the hu"an species on an unpro'a%le
theory*;= Ga'id Hrie)er= founder of the !uclear A)e Peace Foundation.
1his is why= fortunately= the initiati'e of achie'in) peace of the world without nuclear
weapons is )ainin) support a"on) %oth the senior "ilitary and the political leaders of the
world. 1he increasin) nu"%er of leaders ha'e realised what A%raha" Kincoln said= :Ae
"ust thin7 anew and act anew.; 0ecently "any world leaders ha'e e@pressed willin)ness
to "o'e towards this )oal. British Pri"e <inister $orden Brown said in <arch 2995 that
the 3H was ready to wor7 for :a world that is free fro" nuclear weapons.; On Gece"%er
#= 2995= !icholas Sar7o&y= the French President= while holdin) 43 Presidency= wrote a
letter to 3! $eneral Secretary= outlinin) an 43 plan to ad'ance )lo%al pro)ress toward
nuclear disar"a"ent.
In order to sei&e this positi'e trend= to achie'e the co""it"ent of the entire international
co""unity= and to re6ener)ise effort for co"plete nuclear disar"a"ent= a new initiati'e
:$lo%al Bero; was launched on Gece"%er 8= 2995= in Paris. 1he initiati'e was endorsed
%y 199 international political= "ilitary= %usiness and ci'ic leaders across the world. 1he
si)natories included for"er 3S President Ci""y 2arter= for"er So'iet leader <i7hail
$or%ache'= for"er British Forei)n Secretary <ar)aret Bec7et= Oueen !oor of Cordan=
4hasnul -a>= for"er Coint 2hief of the Staff co""ittee (C2S2) of Pa7istan= for"er
Indian !ational Security ad'isor BraMes <ishra.
$lo%al Bero en'isa)es eli"inatin) nuclear weapons throu)h phased and 'erified
reduction o'er a period of years. Hey steps include,
P <assi'e reduction in 0ussian63S arsenal.
P 2o"plete eli"ination to &ero %y all states.
P 4sta%lishin) 'erification syste" to 7eep chec7.
P International "ana)e"ent of the fuel cycle.
1here are "any positi'e indicators which indicate why this )oal is achie'a%le. FirstF there
is a stron) historical support. 1hrou)hout the nuclear a)e= e'en at the hei)ht of the 2old
Aar= leaders foresaw a day when the world could %e free of nu7es. In 185(= So'iet
Pre"ier <i7hail $or%ache' and 3S President 0onald 0ea)an a)reed that, :A nuclear
war could ne'er %e won and "ust ne'er %e fou)ht.; In 1888= 2hinese President Cian)
Be"in stated, :1here is no reason why nuclear weapons should not %e co"prehensi'ely
%anned and co"pletely destroyed.;
SecondF as Cian) Be"in had e"phasised in his state"ent= EAhat it ta7es to reach this
o%Mecti'e is no "ore than a stron) political will.D 1he world leaders a)ree with the idea of
a world without nu7es and ha'e the "eans to achie'e it. Ahat they only need is the
EPolitical willD. So"e analysts ar)ue that e'en if the "aMor world powers a)ree to
eli"inate nuclear weapons= country li7e Iran "i)ht not a)ree to a%andon its a"%ition.
1hou)h IranDs nuclear weapon a"%itions is a fallacy= there is a stron) reason why Iran
would follow the course. :If there is )rowin) support %y nuclear powers and pu%lic
opinion worldwide= I thin7 it %eco"es harder for any )o'ern"ent= includin) Iran= to cross
that %arrier;= said 0ichard Burt= who was Aashin)tonDs 2hief ne)otiator in the Strate)ic
Ar"s 0eduction 1reaty (S1A01) tal7s in the early 1889s. !aturally= no country can
afford to %e on the one side and whole of the world on the other.
1hirdF there is a stron) support a"on) "aMority of the people around the world. A poll of
21 countries conducted %y Pro)ra" on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA)= 3SA= shows
that )lo%al pu%lic opinion is o'erwhel"in)ly in fa'ours of an international a)ree"ent for
eli"inatin) all nuclear weapons. .( per cent of respondents= across all countries polled=
fa'our such an a)ree"ent. As the pu%lic opinion tends to direct the policies of
)o'ern"ents= it is li7ely that the leaders would co"e to the ta%le.
FourthF at this ti"e particular= there is a new and )reat opportunity. 3S President Bara7
O%a"a and 0ussian Pri"e <inister Qladi"ir Putin ha'e si)nalled to wor7 on nuclear
disar"a"ent. 1he for"er declared= :1his is the "o"ent to %e)in the wor7s of see7in) the
peace of a world without nuclear weapons.; Si"ilarly= 0ussian Pri"e <inister Putin
e@pressed in a speech in Septe"%er 2995 to :2lose this PandoraDs Bo@;.
1his new and unprecedented political support fro" the heads of the worldDs "ost
i"portant )o'ern"entsD for &ero nuclear weapons has "ade this )oal possi%le. 1his
"o"ent offers %oth the possi%ilities and dan)ers. Possi%ilitiesF %ecause of new leadership
in the 3S which appears to support the )oal of nuclear a%olition. Gan)ersF %ecause= if this
"o"ent passes without action= then the nuclear6race could >uic7ly )ather pace with "any
"ore states ac>uirin) weapons and the ris7 of weapons fallin) into the hands of terrorists
would increase.
1his opportunity "ust %e sei&ed. It is the ti"e for a new %e)innin) to achie'e a world
free of nuclear weapons. 1his "o"ent calls for e"%racin) possi%ilities and dispellin)
dan)ers. 1he phased and 'erifia%le eli"ination of nuclear weapons is possi%le. -ere are
so"e of the steps needed to achie'e this )oal,
FirstlyF the ratification of !on Proliferation 1reaty (!P1) and 2o"prehensi'e 1est Ban
1reaty (21B1). 1he !P1= which was sponsored %y the 3S= 3H and the 3SS0= was
ai"ed :to pre'ent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapon technolo)y= to pro"ote
cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear ener)y and to further the )oal of achie'in)
nuclear disar"a"ent;. 1he treaty was si)ned %y 15. states and was ratified in 18.#.
-owe'er= the 3S= its sponsors= did not ratify it. Other four countries which ha'e not
si)ned it are, India= Pa7istan= Israel and 2u%a. Si"ilarly= 21B1= introduced in 188#= has
not %een ratified %y "any states= includin) the 3S. It is stron)ly felt that if the 3S ratifies
these treaties= others would follow the course. :4arly the 3S ratification would do "uch
to encoura)e the few re"ainin) states to follow suit=; wrote Ga'id <ili%and= 3HDs
for"er Forei)n Secretary= in 1he Aashin)ton Post on Gece"%er 5= 2995.
SecondlyF ne)otiations %etween Aashin)ton and <oscow should start to cut %ac7 nuclear
stoc7piles to "ini"u". Accordin) to "oderate esti"ates= the 3S and 0ussia ha'e a%out
2(999 of total 2.999 weapons in the world. As %oth these states possess lar)est stoc7piles
N8( per cent of all the nuclear weapons in the worldNthey should reduce their arsenal
in the first step. :Process needs to start with A"erican and 0ussian leaderships;= ar)ues
0ichard Burt.
1his is an a%solutely insensi%le approach to accu"ulate that "uch %i) arsenal that
fraction of which can destroy the whole world. :Ahen a country can %e destroyed %y a
do&en weapons= its own possession of thousands of weapons )ains no security;= says
Ad"iral !oel $ayler. 1he hu)e possession of nu7es itself puts lar)er responsi%ility on
the 3S and 0ussia to initiate the process of disar"a"ents up to "ini"u" le'el. 1he
successful conclusion of ES1A01 !4AD %etween %oth powers stren)thens the possi%ility
of reachin) an a)ree"ent on nuclear disar"a"ent.
1hirdlyF followin) the reductions %y the 3S and 0ussia= the rest of the countries can %e
%rou)ht on %oard for co"plete a%olition of nu7es. It would not %e a difficult tas7. Once
the powerful countries lead the course= rest will follow the". Perhaps others see" poised
to welco"e such "o'e. 1he willin)ness of 2hina= the 3H and France has already %een
"entioned. 1he two South Asian countries India and Pa7istan are also ready to shun the
nu7es. Kast Cune= Indian Pri"e <inister <an"ohan Sin)h= %ac7ed the sa"e )oal= sayin)
that, :1he only effecti'e for" of nuclear disar"a"ent and eli"ination of nuclear
weapons is )lo%al disar"a"ent.; President Bardari has also tal7ed of :nuclear weapon6
free South Asia;. !orth Horea is already on6%oard in si@6party tal7s and has also
co""itted to a%olish nuclear weapons for econo"ic incenti'es. 1he only country which
has stayed silent is Israel which is undeclared nuclear state. But )i'en the le'era)e=
Aashin)ton enMoys o'er it= Israel will ha'e to %e part of the process.
Once this process sets in "o"entu"= the weapons could %e deli'ered to a sin)le and
co""on re"ote place in oceans for dis"antlin) under the super'ision of s7illed
scientists. 1he nuclear "aterial could %e returned to the donors for use in the ener)y
sector or disposal.
Kastly= ha'in) achie'ed the co"plete and 'erified eli"ination of nuclear weapons fro"
the world= all the countries will ha'e to conclude a Moint treaty at the 3! platfor"
%annin) any de'elop"ent of nuclear weapons and technolo)y. As Oueen !oor of Cordan
told BB2= :Ae ha'e to wor7 on de6le)iti"isin) the status of nuclear weapons.; 1his is
'ital for "a7in) the eli"ination of nu7es irre'ersi%le. 1his would re>uire esta%lishin)
"any "echanis"s to constitute an e'entual re)i"e for o'erseein) the )lo%al %an.
It is also i"portant to realise that ad'anta)e of use of nuclear technolo)y for peaceful
purposes is too )reat to %e i)nored. 1he !P1 also underscores Eto pro"ote cooperation in
the peaceful use of nuclear ener)yD. And= e'ery country has the ri)ht to ac>uire nuclear
technolo)y for peaceful purposes. But )i'en the ele"ent of conflict in international
affairs and at"osphere of "istrust= all the countries canDt %e trusted as relia%le for not
pursuin) the a"%itions of ac>uirin) nuclear weapons a)ain. 1his situation warrants a new
approach= which would allow the use of nuclear ener)y and deny the weapons
technolo)y.
1he $lo%al Bero initiati'e en'isa)es Einternational "ana)e"ent of the fuel cycle to
pre'ent future de'elop"ent of nuclear weapons.D :An a)ree"ent on a new International
Ato"ic 4ner)y A)ency (IA4A) led syste" that would help states wishin) to de'elop a
ci'il nuclear ener)y industry to do so without increasin) the ris7 of nuclear weapon
proliferation; says Ga'id <ili%and. 2reation of such international fuel %an7 would also
end the conflicts in the world li7e Iran !uclear Issue. 1his proposal was also forwarded
%y IA4ADs for"er head <uha""ad 4l%radi as early as in 2993= that, :all production and
processin) of nuclear "aterial %e under international control;. 1his no'el idea has
attracted the 43 and an A"erican %illionaire EAarren BuffettD for financin) the proMect.
In this way= the world could not only %e safe fro" destruction and the hu"anity fro"
annihilation= %ut the tre"endous ener)y potential of the nuclear resources could also %e
utilised for the welfare of people. 1he resources that )o into weapons would help 7eep
people safe and healthy and to )i'e the" opportunities. !ot only the world is facin)
ener)y crisis due to depletion of fossil fuels= %ut with their e"issions our en'iron"ent is
%ein) da"a)ed se'erely. !uclear power possesses tre"endous ener)y and si"ultaneously
it is clean ener)y. It is i"portant for health purposes as it is used in the treat"ent of "any
diseases= includin) cancer. Its use in a)riculture enhances crop yield which would help
"iti)ate the food crisis.
$lo%al Bero offers two?pron)ed %enefits, achie'in) safety %y eli"inatin) nuclear
weapons and to achie'e prosperity %y usin) nuclear ener)y. 1he leaders of world ha'e the
)reatest "oral responsi%ility to sei&e the opportunity for the welfare of the li'in) and the
future )enerations of "an7ind. As Bena&ir Bhutto said= :Ae owe it to our children to
%uild a world free of the threat of nuclear annihilation.;
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2risis of $ood $o'ernance in Pa7istan
By Gr. Ouratul Ain <ali7 (I1$)
Introduction
$ood )o'ernance is a prere>uisite for social har"ony= pu%lic order= political sta%ility=
econo"ic prosperity and certainty a%out future. It deli'ers the fruit of pro)ress and
de'elop"ent e'enly to all and sundry. $ood )o'ernance is re>uired at all le'els of
society and state.
4ssentials of )ood )o'ernance
1. Pro"otion of national cohesion
2. !ational inte)ration
3. Institutional supre"acy
. Independent Mudiciary
#. 2onstitutional supre"acy
(. 0ule of law
.. Political sta%ility
5. 4ducational opportunities
8. Socio6econo"ic de'elop"ent
19. 4>ual distri%ution of resources
11. Aelfare state with pro'ision of social securities
12. Stron) writ of the )o'ern"ent on all fronts
Situation of )o'ernance in Pa7istan
1. Forces of disinte)ration 66 stron)er than forces of cohesion
2. Aea7 writ of the )o'ern"ent
3. A%sence of independent Mudiciary
. !o rule of law
#. Political insta%ility
(. Interpro'incial conflicts
.. 3ne>ual distri%ution of resources
5. Pa7istan presentin) a picture of e@tre"e %ad )o'ernance on all national fronts
2auses
Political causes
1. Parlia"ent= a toothless ti)er
2. Political insta%ility due to constant "ilitary interference
3. Issue of pro'incialis" on re'enue= resources and de"and of pro'incial autono"y
Ad"inistrati'e causes
1. Bureaucratic hold on all institutions
2. Political interference on %ureaucracy
3. 2orruption= "other of all e'ils
. A%sence of culture of accounta%ility
#. <is"ana)e"ent of resources
(. Pa7istan= a soft state %ecause of ina%ility of i"ple"entation of policies due to lac7 of
consensus
4cono"ic causes
1. Fra)ile econo"y 6 FGI shrin7in) on account of terroris" and political insta%ility
2. 2risis of ener)y= food= water
3. 2orruption fro" top to %otto" creatin) %urden on the )o'ern"ent e@che>uer
Social causes
1. Po'erty ? 9 per cent population li'in) %elow the po'erty line (3! reports)
2. O'er population 61(.( crore ( 4cono"ic Sur'ey of Pa7istan 2998)
3. Illiteracy leadin) to socio6econo"ic %ac7wardness
0e"edies
1. Pa7istan is in dire need of truly capa%le leadership
2. Stron) anti6corruption ca"pai)ns stren)thenin) !ational Accounta%ility Bureau
3. Strict accounta%ility of all )o'ern"ent ser'ants in particular and co""on "asses in
)eneral
. In'est"ent in socio6econo"ic de'elop"ent
#. Allocation of se'en per cent $GP for education
(. 1hree per cent for population control
.. 1hree per cent for po'erty alle'iation
5. $eneration of new e"ploy"ent opportunities
8. 4>ual distri%ution of resources
19. 4nsurin) freedo" of press
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Aorld Order, 3nipolar to <ultipolar
By Irshad Ali Sodhar (FSP)
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Brief history of Aorld Order
3. 3nited StatesD 3ni6polar Status
. Geter"inants of Aorld Order
a) 4cono"ic stren)th
%) <ilitary power
c) International political clout
d) Ideolo)y appeal
#. 1he Paradi)" shift
(. 2atalyst factors,
a) 4ner)y resources
%) Ira> war
c) Financial crisis
d) $lo%alisation
.. Future scenario6 <ultipolar Aorld
5. Aould the "ultipolarity %e %eneficial to world*
8. 2onclusion
-istory has witnessed cycles of rise and fall of ci'ilisations= e"pires and re)ional as well
as )lo%al powers. In past= "ilitary power was the only decisi'e factor in :%alance of
power; a"on) nations. Its stren)th ensured their e@pansion and influence while its
wea7ness precipitated their fall and disinte)ration. 1hou)h= it is still an i"portant
ele"ent= "any other factors li7e econo"y= ideolo)y= political sta%ility= states"anship and
diplo"acy ha'e played su%stantial role in deter"inin) the status of a country a"on) the
co"ity of nations in this )lo%alisation world.
1he Aorld Order has %een "ore dyna"ic due to the unprecedented de'elop"ents in
international affairs in the last century6ran)in) fro" "ultipolar= %ipolar and unipolar. 1he
3S has enMoyed unilateral and unparalleled status in the international affairs. But as
history repeats itself= the "i)ht of A"erican power is 'isi%ly di"inishin) due to
neoconser'ati'e and i"perialistic policies= and new centres of power are e"er)in) to
shape the :"ultipolar world order;.
!aturally= whene'er any "aMor power or state has shown its a"%ition to con>uer the
world and set up he)e"onic e"pire= it has created resistance fro" other forces or alliance
of forces. 1his clash of power has %een the characteristics of all the periods= thou)hF the
29th century is si)nificantly an e@a"ple of unprecedented stru))le %etween the countries
to ac>uire world supre"acy. In the "ultipolar world= the conflict %etween 4uropean
countries led to the Aorld Aar6I. 1ill then 3nited States of A"erica followed isolationist
policies in international real". Gurin) first three years of war= Aashin)ton re"ained out
of war and then declared war on $er"any on April (= 181.. 1he success in war
esta%lished an international foothold for the 3S.
1his deadliest war of history ca"e to an end with of the deadliest weapons (nuclear
%o"%s)= which ushered in a new era of nuclear co"petition. As the "ilitary stren)th of
%oth the 3S and the 3SS0 (for"er) had played si)nificant role in defeatin) the :a@is;=
they esta%lished their enor"ous influence in the world affairs. 1he resultin) conflict of
interest and ideolo)y %etween the 3S and the 3SS0 shaped :Bipolar Aorld Order;. In
the after"ath of Aorld Aar6II= 3nited !ations Or)anisation (3!O) was created to
"aintain peace. -owe'er= this foru" was also una%le to diffuse the tension %etween the
3S and the for"er 3SS0 which "ar7ed the second half of the 29th century. 1he period is
7nown as the 2old Aar.
4'entually= 2old Aar ended with the disinte)ration of the 3SS0 and e"er)ence of the
3S as sole super power of the world? econo"ically= "ilitarily and politically. 1he then
president of the 3S Bush coined the ter" :!ew Aorld Order;= which was si)nificantly
:3nipolar;. 1he 3S has enMoyed a pro"inent status and role since thenF its econo"y )rew
with tre"endous pace= its "ilitary stren)th has %een un"atched= its political influence in
the international affairs has %een uncontested= and its ideolo)y of de"ocratic principle
earned its world leadership.
Si"ply= the 3S holds supre"acy in e'ery ele"ent of )lo%al e"inence. 0ichard !i@on=
the e@6president of the 3S= in his %oo7 :In the Arena;= has descri%ed in)redients of )lo%al
political clout as, econo"ic power= "ilitary forces= ideolo)ical appeal= do"estic political
cohesion= s7ill in statecraft and co""onality of interest with other "aMor powers. In the
li)ht of these in)redients the 3S still enMoys upper hand o'er other countries of the world.
So"e of these are enu"erated here.
1he 3S also possesses a stron)est "ilitary in the world with 1. "illion acti'e personnel
force. Its co"%at force consists of the lar)est nu"%er of carrier ships= fastest fi)hter
planes with precision )uided "issiles and %o"%s. It has successfully tested anti6%allistic
"issile shield capacity.
<ore i"portantly= the 3S has led the world ideolo)ically6 for the purpose of de"ocratic
principles. It was this ideolo)ical perception on the %asis of which Kea)ue of !ations
after the Aorld Aar6I and the 3nited !ations after the Aorld Aar6II were created.
<oreo'er= it has "aintained co""onalty of interest with other "aMor powers. -owe'er= it
has not %een a%le to ac>uire a%solute power due to increasin) co"petition fro" other
"aMor powers= particularly e"er)ence of 2hina= resur)ence of 0ussia= and union of
4uropean countries )lo%ally and Iran= Qene&uela re)ionally. :1he scope of A"ericaDs
)lo%al he)e"ony is ad"ittedly )reat %ut its depth is shallow= li"ited %y %oth do"estic
and e@ternal restraints.; Says Bir&ins7i= the for"er 3S !ational Security Ad'isor.
1he 3S has posed and acted as a "ost powerful state in the last two decades= %ut the
shallowness of its power. Other powers ha'e challen)ed the he)e"ony of the 3S in the
international affairs. 1hou)h= no any power has indi'idually surpassed the 3S in any of
the ele"ents of %alance of power= they are poised to do in the near future= )i'en the
chan)in) paradi)".
4cono"ically= the 3S is still the lar)est econo"y of the world %ut closely followed %y
Capan and 2hina. 1he per capita inco"e of Capan is hi)her than that of the 3S. 2hina has
a 'ery )rowin) econo"y with sustained )rowth rate of o'er nine per cent for the last one
and a half decades. 1he 3S faces trade deficit of R599 %illon while 2hina has trade
surplus of R1#9 %illion a year. 43Ds collecti'e $GP is now )reater than that of the 3S.
Since the launch of 4uro currency in 1888= dollar had %een losin) its 'alue a)ainst it
constantly. 4cono"y of 0ussia has %een %loatin) its since 2999 and its $GP has %een
tripled. 1he risin) oil and )as prices ha'e added enor"ous i"petus in 0ussian econo"y.
2o""entin) on the challen)es to unipolarity of the 3S= 0ichard !. -ass= a scholar at 3S
2ouncil for Forei)n Affairs= wrote in :Forei)n Affairs <a)a&ine;, :Althou)h 3SD $GP
accounts for o'er 2# per cent of the world total= this percenta)e is sure to decline o'er
ti"e )i'en actual and proMected differential %etween 3S )rowth rate and those of Asian
)iants;.
<ilitarily= 3S "ilitary force is said to %e the stron)est in the world %ut its superiority is
not assuredly "ar7ed in contrast to the "ilitary forcesD capa%ilities of other "aMor powers
li7e 0ussia= 2hina= France= $er"any or if the capa%ility of co""unist countries is
co"%ined on the one hand and that of the 43 is co"%ined on other hand. Al"ost all the
"aMor powers are nuclear states. 0ussia clai"s to ha'e anti%allistic "issile capa%ility
successfully de'eloped and tested durin) the 2old AarF 2hina has tested a direct Eanti6
satellite "issileD and Ecarrier cruse 7illerD. <oreo'er= in the current scenario "ilitarilis"
and terroris" ha'e under"ined the stren)th of >uite lar)er ar"ies. 1he 8/11 attac7s
showed how a s"all in'est"ent %y terrorists could cause e@traordinary le'el of da"a)e.
Politically= the influence of the 3S and its unilateral posture has %een seriously chec7ed.
1his is "anifested fro" nuclear i"%ro)lio with !orth Horea and Iran. 2hina pro'ed to %e
the %est a%le to influence Pyon)yan). Iran has faced four sets of sanctions %y the 3!S2
on the insistence of the 3S %ut does not see" to %e ready to co"pro"ise its stance. 1he
de)ree of sanctions was si)nificantly softened due to the stand of 0ussia and 2hina.
:Aashin)tonDs a%ility to pressure 1ehran has %een stren)thened %y the participation of
se'eral Aestern 4uropean countries and wea7ened %y the reluctance of 2hina and 0ussia
to sanction Iran;= says 0ichard !. -ass.
<eanwhile= writ of the 3S has %een si)nificantly challen)ed %y Qene&uela in Katin
A"erica= which is supported %y Ar)entina and Bra&il. Ahile challen)in) the 3S
authority= Qene&uela is de'elopin) close relations with 0ussia and 2hina. 0ussian
President Gi"itry <ed'ede' 'isited 2aracas in "id 2995 and si)ned a nuclear deal with
his counterpart -u)o 2ha'e&. 1heir "ilitary cooperation is also stren)thenin) after this
result. In South Asia= India is e"er)in) as a )lo%al power due to its ro%ust econo"ic
)rowth and lar)e population of o'er 1 %illion.
Ideolo)ically= 3S had pro"inence due to its ideolo)ical appeal %ut the practical approach
to the de"ocratic cause has %een contrary to the ideolo)y. Aashin)tonDs dealin) with
other countries has %een influenced %y its econo"ic and he)e"onic interests rather than
de"ocratic principles and Mustice. 1he 3S has %een supporti'e to dictatorships and
7in)do"s= while it has %een callin) others for de"ocracy. 1he factor which has "ost
sti)"atised A"ericaDs reputation is its policy in the <iddle 4ast where it has %een %iased.
It calls IsraelDs Estate terroris"D as Eri)ht of self6defenseD= while it ter"s the le)iti"ate
resistance of Palestinians as Eterroris"D.
1hou)h= e"er)ence of new powers was natural= the status of the 3S could re"ain
unchallen)ed= had Aashin)ton transfor"ed its attitude and policies fro" a unilateralist to
"ultilateralist approach. But the unilateral and unMustified policies of the 3S on se'eral
accounts fro" Ira> war to cli"ate chan)e crises ha'e only un'eiled fissures in its power
structure. 1he "ost contro'ersial issues= which ha'e placed the 3S at the opposite pole
fro" rest of the world= are ener)y crises= Ira> war= cli"ate chan)e= financial crises and
)lo%alisation. 1hese factors ha'e rather pro'ed catalyst in the shift fro" unipolar to the
"ultipolar world.
4ner)y resources are 'ital ele"ent in forei)n policy for"ulation= particularly in
conte"porary scenario of ener)y crises. 1he 3S ener)y policy is a dri'in) force %ehind
the end of unipolarity. Since there is increase in de"and of oil= it has two6fold effects on
)eopolitical front. FirstF the increase in de"and raised the world oil prices fro" Must o'er
R29 a %arrel to o'er R1#9 a %arrel in less than a decade until the financial crisis plun)ed
the oil prices. 1his increase in oil cost resulted in enor"ous transfer of wealth and
le'era)e to ener)y rich countries. Secondly in order to secure ener)y supply= all the "aMor
powers ha'e co""on interest in the ener)y rich countries. 1his co"petition has resulted
in confrontational politics on the international sta)e. 1his is the ener)y de"and which led
the 3S to war in Ira>.
1he Ira> war has si)nificantly contri%uted to the dilution of the 3S power in the world. It
has pro'ed to %e e@pensi'e in ter"s of al"ost all ele"ents of power and in hu"an ter"s.
-istorian Paul Hennedy had outlined in his %oo7 EI"perial O'erstretchD that the 3S
would e'entually decline %y o'erreachin) Must as other powers had in the past. 1he war
has cost A"erica deaths of "ore than =#99 troops and o'er R.99 %illion as loss.
0esultantly= the 3S fiscal position has declined fro" surplus of R199 %illion in 2999 to a
deficit of R.99 %illion in 299.. 1his also "anifests that Aashin)ton cannot fi)ht any"ore
war unilaterally.
On the diplo"atic front= the 3S could not o%tain appro'al fro" the 3nited !ations
Security 2ouncil (3!S2) for )oin) into war in Ira>. 1he issue of pre6e"pti'e war
di'ided the 3S and the 3H fro" their 4uropean partners N France and $er"any N and
other )lo%al powers N 0ussia and 2hina.
1he financial crisis of 2995 hit the %ac7%one of the 3S econo"y whereas 0ussian=
2hinese and other Asian econo"ies ha'e displayed >uite sta%ility. 1he crisis da"a)ed not
only its econo"y %ut i"a)e as well. :1he financial crisis is causin) "aMor da"a)e to 3S
i"a)e as the sta%le anchor of the world econo"y= and A"erican leadership= as the
do"inant financial superpower with free and inno'ati'e "ar7ets= is in >uestion;= says
+eon)seop 0hee= of Broo7in)s institution. In a short= the financial crisis has defined the
econo"ic "ultipolarity of the world.
Besides= the )lo%alisation has transfor"ed the world into an interdependent "ultipolar
world. !ation States ha'e %een losin) their "onopoly on power and are %ein) challen)ed
%y re)ional and )lo%al or)anisations= and non6)o'ern"ental or)anisations (!$Os) and
corporations. $lo%alisation has stren)thened ties and connection in econo"y= politics=
science and technolo)y= culture and society around the world. It is the i"pact of
)lo%alisation and le'era)e of en'iron"ental !$Os that 15( countries thou)h reluctantly
si)ned the Hyoto Protocol= 2openha)en Accord and now the E2ancun A)ree"entsD on
cli"ate chan)e.
A%o'e issues ha'e reflected upon a point that no country can independently address such
)lo%al issues li7e cli"ate chan)e= terroris"= proliferation of weapons of "ass destruction=
econo"ic crisis and a%o'e all the world peace and security. It has %een pro'ed that
unilateral and he)e"onic efforts ha'e %een failed to chan)e the o%Mecti'e law of world
politics= rather= they ha'e aroused resistance across the world.
-ence it is %eco"in) e'ident that the a)e of EunipolarityD is Edissipatin)D and the world is
E"o'in) towardsD natural E"ultipolarityD. In other words= there e"er)ed "ultipowers or
centres power. -owe'er= "ultipolarity is not an i""ediate reality the rather it is
de'elopin) trend. As the e"er)in) powers are stren)thenin) and their inter6dependence
increasin)= world is %ein) pushed towards "ultipolarity.
In the future "ultipolar world order= power would not rest with a few "aMor countries %ut
with se'eral countries. 4ach ha'in) its specific pro"inence will ha'e asserti'e say in the
world affairs. Besides the 3S= Capan= 2hina= 43 and India would ha'e econo"ic stren)th.
Iran= Saudi Ara%ia= Qene&uela= "e"%ers of the African 3nion and Bra&il would ha'e
le'era)e due to their 'ast ener)y resources. 0ussia would ha'e %oth ad'anta)es. So"e
countries would ha'e i"portance due to their )eostrate)ic location li7e Pa7istan= 2entral
Asian States= 37raine= and 1ur7ey as these countries are located on the ener)y routes
throu)h which ener)y resources will %e routed to rest of the world. Besides= the
international or)anisations li7e 3!O= Aorld Ban7= I<FF re)ional or)anisations li7e
SAA02= 43= S2O= AS4A!= A3 and !$Os includin) en'iron"ental= social and
hu"anitarian would %e on the list of power centres.
-ere a >uestion arisesF whether the "ultipolar world with so "any power centres could
ensure peace and security* 1here are serious concerns %ecause pre'ious "ultipolarity had
led to two Aorld Aars. 1he answer is assuredly affir"ati'e. 1he future "ultipolarity is
not )oin) to %e li7e the pre'ious one %ased on independent power %ase of countries. On
the contrary= the e"er)in) "ultipolarity is the a)e of )rowin) inter6dependence and
"utual cooperation. 1he countries would not %e assertin) their influence indi'idually %ut
throu)h re)ional and international or)anisations on the %asis of de"ocratic principles.
1he stren)th of econo"y= technolo)ical ad'ance"ent= a'aila%ility of ener)y and hu"an
de'elop"ent depend upon the cooperation of all countries and ci'ilisations. And a
"ultipolar world can %est ser'e this purpose %y creatin) %alance in e@ercise of power and
%oostin) co"petiti'e at"osphere in technolo)ical and econo"ic fields. In this re)ard= a
scholar of 2hinese People Association for Peace and Gisar"a"ent= +u Bhon)ron) says=
:A "ultipolar world is characterised with coe@istence of "ultiple forces and "ultiple
entities.; 1o %e precise= collecti'e security= "utual cooperation and inter6dependence
would %e the ear"ar7 of "ultipolar world.
1o achie'e this purpose= all the e@istin) and e"er)in) powers need to de'elop consensus
on so"e prere>uisites. 1he international relations are re>uired to %e de"ocratised. And to
achie'e the )oals= 3! is a %est foru". Firstly its charterDs %asic principles of e>uality of
states= "aMority as core of de"ocratic syste" and "echanis" of institutions shall %e
followed in true spirit in dealin) with all international issues. Secondly= 3!Ds authority
"ust %e safe)uarded and enhanced to play its role to %alance the power of 'arious forces
and to find Must and rational solution to international conflicts li7e Palestine= Hash"ir=
Ira>= nuclear proliferation and hu"anitarian crises. It shall facilitate dialo)ue and
e@chan)e of 'iews %etween different ci'ilisations and cultures of all reli)ion= re)ion and
countries.
As the chronicles of international politics ha'e pro'ed that he)e"ony and i"perialis"
are the %i))est threat to world peace and are the root causes of conflicts and wars= the
"ultipolar world of Einter6dependenceD and Ecoe@istenceD is a %id to create a har"onious
world of econo"ic sta%ility= social Mustice= collecti'e security and co""on de'elop"ent.
In this way= hu"an will see the world to e"%ar7 on the path of peace6the ulti"ate )oal.
SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
$lo%al war"in)
By Irshad Ali Sodhar (FSP)
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Ahat is )lo%al war"in)*
3. $reen house effect
. 4'idences of )lo%al war"in)/cli"ate chan)e
a) 1e"perature=
%) Precipitation=
c) 0ise in sea le'el.
#. 2auses of )lo%al war"in)6e"issions
(. Sources of e"issions
.. Aho are responsi%le for )reen house e"issions*
5. Possi%le i"pacts of )lo%al war"in),
a) <ost affected would %e "ar)inalised co""unities=
%) 2oastal areas=
c) Fre>uent and stron) stor"s and floods=
d) -ealth pro%le"s=
e) 4cosyste" destruction=
f) A)ricultural loss (Food insecurity).
8. 3npredicta%le surprises
19. 1hreshold le'el
11. Strate)ies to "iti)ate )lo%al war"in),
a) 1ransfor"in) to renewa%le sources of ener)y=
%) 4ner)y conser'ation and efficiency=
c) Indi'idual efforts.
12. 2onclusion
$lo%al war"in) is si"ply defined as an increase in the a'era)e )lo%al te"peratures.
1hou)h= it is an en'iron"ental pro%le"= it has serious i"plications on the )lo%al
econo"ics= )eopolitics= society= hu"anity and all li'in) %ein)s. :$lo%al war"in) is one
of the "ost contro'ersial science issues of the 21st century= challen)in) the 'ery structure
of our )lo%al society;= says <ar7. 1hou)h= there has %een contro'ersies %etween two
schools of scientific thou)ht= one callin) it is a "yth and the other considerin) it is a
reality= there is sufficient e'idence to support the later. Anthropo)enic acti'ities= causin)
increased e"issions of )reen house )ases= are %ehind the )lo%al war"in). It has %een
esta%lished= that= if not addressed properly and i""ediately= it would ha'e catastrophic
i"pacts.
$lo%al war"in) "eans earth is %eco"in) war"er )radually. 1here is increase in a'era)e
)lo%al te"peratures of air and oceans= acco"panied %y widespread "eltin) of )laciers
and risin) of sea le'el. 1he 3nited !ations Inter)o'ern"ental Panel on 2li"ate 2han)e
(IP22) in its ESynthesis 0eport on 2li"ate 2han)eD= states that there is clear e'idence for
a 9.( 92 rise in )lo%al te"peratures and 29c" rise in sea le'el durin) the 29th century. It
predicts that :)lo%al te"peratures could rise %y 1. to #.5 92 and sea le'el could rise %y
29 to 55c" %y the year 2199.; <aMority of the scientists and research or)anisations=
includin) IP22 ha'e reached on consensus that )lo%al war"in) is caused %y "assi'e
increase of )reen house )ases such as 2ar%on dio@ide (2o2) in at"osphere resultin) fro"
%urnin) of fossil fuels and deforestation.
1he te"perature of earth is "aintained %y the %alance %etween the heat ener)y co"in)
fro" the sun and the heat ener)y returned %ac7 to space. So"e at"ospheric )ases,
2ar%on dio@ide (2O2)= <ethane (2-)= !itrous O@ide (!2OT)= 2hlorofluorocar%ons
(2F2) and water 'apours are i"portant to this te"perature %alance. 1hey for" the )reen
house %lan7et in the at"osphere. 1his %lan7et a%sor%s so"e of the lon) wa'e radiation
and re6radiate it %ac7 to surface= which causes the at"osphere to war" up to 3#92.
Aithout these )ases the earthDs at"ospheric te"perature would %e 1# to 2992. If "ore
such )ases are added to the at"osphere= the earthDs te"perature would increase
accordin)ly. And these are %ein) added enor"ously.
1his is why the )lo%al war"in) is ta7in) place with )reater pace due to the a%undant
increase in e"issions. :1he scientists co""unity is lar)ely persuaded that not only is
earthDs cli"ate war"in)= %ut rate of war"in) is acceleratin) due su%stantially to= hu"an
acti'ity.; says Gr. 1errence <. Coyce= Senior Scientist and Girector of Ocean U 2li"ate
2han)e Institute.
1he "ain e'idences of )lo%al war"in) are three %asic indicators6 te"perature=
precipitation and sea le'el. Firstly= the te"perature of land surface= ocean waters and free
at"osphere has %een "easured throu)h fi@ed ther"o"eters= %alloons in the air and
satellites. By these sources= scientists ha'e produced record of last 139 years= which
shows a )lo%al war"in) of 9.(#(V 6 9.9#de)ree 2) o'er this period. Ae also 7now that
2919 was )lo%ally the war"est years on record.
Secondly= the recorded data of precipitation also re'eals that there is upward trend in
)lo%al precipitation. It shows that precipitation has increased o'er land at hi)h latitudes in
northern he"isphere= especially durin) cold seasons. As the cyclones= i.e. hurricanes=
tornadoes= stor"s are closely related with the process of precipitationF the world has
e@perienced "ore fre>uent and stron)er hurricanes and stor"s durin) the recent pastF
-urricane Hatrina in the 3S in 299# and 2919 Super Flood in Pa7istan.
1hirdly= the )lo%al sea le'el has risen %y a%out 29c" o'er the past 199 years. Initially= it
was %elie'ed that the rise in sea le'el had occurred due to te"perature increase as water
e@pands on heatin). But it has %een re'ealed %y rele'ant data that the 9 per cent increase
in the sea le'el was due to war"in) and (9 per cent increase was due to "eltin) of ice.
1his is pretty dan)erous news as %oth the poles of earth are co'ered with ice6 Arctic and
Antarctic= with hu)e "ass of ice. If "eltin) is accelerated due to )lo%al war"in) it would
cause catastrophic rise in oceans.
1he "a)nitude of the i"pacts warrants seriously loo7in) into the responsi%le factors for
e"issions in order to de'ise effecti'e strate)ies to cope with this peril. 1here are "any
sources/a)ents which are responsi%le for e"issions of )reen house )ases ? resultin)
"ainly fro" the %urnin) of fossil fuels and deforestation. Industrial processes= power
)eneration= transportation and do"estic consu"ption of fossil fuels are "aMor sources of
anthropo)enic e"ission. 3nfortunately= the fossil fuel i.e. oil= coal= natural )as supply 5#
per cent of ener)y supply whereas the clean for"s of ener)y i.e. nuclear = %io"ass and
hydro)en only for" 1# per cent of ener)y supply.
On the other hand= cuttin) of trees for settle"ents and natural fire incidents li7e the
su""er fire in Australia and unusual fire in 0ussia in 2919= due to hi)h te"peratures= are
also causin) deforestation at "assi'e le'el. In this way the forests= which are "aMor
source of %alancin) 2O2= are also decreasin) resultin) in its increase in the at"osphere.
Since= the e"issions are proportional to the consu"ptionF these are not e'enly distri%uted
around the world. !orth A"erica is a leadin) e"itter followed %y 4urope and Asia.
1o)ether they "a7e 89 per cent of the )lo%al industrially produced 2O2. 1he de'eloped
countries ha'e e"itted "uch "ore than de'elopin) countries. Besides= the de'elopin)
countries are stri'in) for econo"ic pro)ress= su%se>uently increasin) e"issions as
econo"ic de'elop"ent is closely associated with ener)y production. !ow= all the
countries= particularly de'eloped countries ha'e to share responsi%ility to cut the
e"issions for the purpose of hu"anity otherwise we are )oin) to suffer the possi%le
i"plications.
$lo%al war"in) is )oin) to di'est co""unities that are already the "ost "ar)inalised in
world. 1hese are the co""unities that are least responsi%le for the industrial and
historical e"issions that created the pro%le". -owe'er= future cli"ate chan)e will ha'e
i"pacts on all parts of hu"an society= includin) coastal re)ions= stor"s and floods= health
and water resources= a)riculture and %iodi'ersity. So"e of the i"pacts are discussed
separately.
OneF the coast line re)ions are "ost 'ulnera%le. As the 3!Ds panel on cli"ate has
reported that sea le'el could rise %y 29655 c" in ne@t 199 years= this is a serious pro%le"
for coastal areas which will %e "ore prone to stor"s and floods. In response= the %i))er
and de'eloped countries would ha'e to %uild hi)her walls on the coasts %ut still they will
ha'e to lose so"e a)ricultural land. -owe'er= the s"all island countries li7e <aldi'es
face dire situation. 1he sea rise would flood up the dry land= "a7in) these islands
inha%ita%le. Another country= Ban)ladesh which is deltaic re)ion would lose considera%le
portion of land and its a)riculture ? a pri"e source of li'elihood there will %e destroyed.
1woF stor"s and floods are "aMor natural ha&ards. 1he records show that the te"perature
re)ions= particularly in the northern he"isphere= ha'e witnessed "ore stor"s o'er the last
#9 years. 1wo6fifth of the world population li'es under the "onsoon %elt. <onsoons are
caused "ainly %y te"perature difference %etween oceans and continents. 1his difference
will increase and the "onsoons= which are nor"ally life6)i'in) rains= would e@acer%ate
tre"endously floodin) the re)ions and destroyin) the a)riculture ? the "aMor econo"ic
acti'ity in the de'elopin) countries.
diseases and inMury due to e@tre"e e'entsF increased fre>uency of diarrhea and
cardio'ascular diseases. By far the "ost i"portant threat to hu"an health is access to
fresh drin7in) water. 1hou)h= the runoff is proMected to increase %y 19 to 9 per cent %y
"id century at hi)her latitudes %ut the ne)ati'e i"pacts of )lo%al war"in) on fresh water
syste" outwei)h its %enefits.
2urrently= appro@i"ately 1.. %illion people= a third of world population= li'e in countries
that are water stressed. IP22 su))ests that with the proMected )lo%al population increase
and the e@pected cli"ate chan)e= fi'e %illion people "ay e@perience water stress %y
292#.
FourthF ecosyste" which is an essential co"ponent for %iodi'ersity= is )oin) to %e
seriously affected %y )lo%al war"in). 1he species at "a@i"u" threats are, 1he "ountain
)orilla in Africa= a"phi%ious Ben)al ti)er= polar %ears and pen)uins= etc. 1he reason for
threat to these species is that they are una%le to "i)rate in response to cli"ate chan)e due
to hu"an acti'ity and ur%anisation. Another e@a"ple of an ecosyste" under threat is
coastal protection. 1here are e'idences that the coral reefs are di"inishin) due to
te"perature increaseF which will distur% %asic food chain in "arine life.
FifthF the "ost worryin) concern of cli"ate chan)e is the effect it will ha'e on
a)riculture. 1he world is already facin) food crisis. Accordin) to 3!= "ore than 599
"illion )o to sleep hun)ry e'ery ni)ht. Increase in te"perature would ha'e two effects,
first= in hi)her latitudes it will increase food production due %y "oderatin) te"peratures
and increased 2O2F it second= it will reduce the crop yield in the low latitudes due to
hi)her te"peratures and destruction of a)ricultural land %y salinity. $enerally= there will
%e a drop in food production in %oth the de'eloped and less de'eloped countries.
1he a%o'e i"pacts assu"e that there is a linear relationship %etween the increase in
te"peratures and its i"plications. -owe'er= there is increasin) concern a"on) the
scientists that cli"ate chan)e "ay occur a%ruptly and e@plode surprises for hu"anity6
%eyond its control. It is o%ser'ed that en'iron"ent is chan)in) at a faster rate than
e@pected. A report %y a 3S !ational Acade"y of Science (!AS) says= :A'aila%le
e'idence su))ests that a%rupt cli"ate chan)es are not only possi%le %ut li7ely in the
future= potentially with lar)e i"pacts on ecosyste" and societies;.
<oreo'er= there is a point of no return6 :threshold;= after which war"in) "ay %eco"e
unstoppa%le. 1he earthDs cli"ate can chan)e a%ruptly when the responsi%le factors reach
the thresholds. <ost scientists thin7 that the point lies not far %eyond 292 hotter. It is the
point at which anthropo)enic war"in) can tri))er hu)e release of 2ar%on dio@ide fro"
war"in) oceans or si"ilar releases of %oth 2O2 and 2- fro" "eltin) per"afrost= or
%oth. 1o li"it war"in) to 292 we "ust sta%ilise concentration of )reen house )ases in
the at"osphere at a specific Esta%ilisation le'elD.
Hnowin) the dan)erous conse>uences of inaction= the world needs to act to chec7 the
)lo%al war"in). As the )lo%al war"in) is caused %y anthropo)enic e"issions= the "ost
lo)ical approach to this pro%le" would %e to cut e"issions si)nificantly. 1his= howe'er=
has a "aMor i"plication for the world econo"y6 the ener)y of which is "ainly %ased on
fossil fuel %urnin). Se'eral efforts ha'e %een spearheaded in the past %ut consensus has
not %een reached due to contentious position of so"e "ost industrialised countries.
Fro" the Hyoto Protocol 188. throu)h 2openha)en= 2998 to 2ancun 2onference 2919=
the world leaders ha'e %een una%le to a)ree on su%stantial cuts in e"issions and ade>uate
fundin) for adoption. 1hou)h= there has %een so"e pro)ress in foundation wor7 alon)
with co""it"ents fro" the world leaders to tac7le this dan)er to planet earth= there is a
lon) way to )o for effecti'e action.
Bein) the de'eloped countries these are well e>uipped= technolo)ically= to cut the
e"ission %y transfor"in) their econo"ies fro" fossil fuel6%ased ener)y to renewa%le
resource ener)y. 1he solar ener)y a'aila%le is the "ost a%undant for" of ener)y a'aila%le
to hu"ans. Aind ener)y is another plenty source of ener)y. !uclear source is also a non6
pollutant source of ener)y. 1he de'eloped countries should not only e@plode this source
%ut they should also support/help the underde'eloped countries to )enerate electricity
fro" this source. Ae need to understand that we ha'e to switch o'er to these sources of
ener)y as the fossil fuels are %ound to %e finished %y the increasin) le'els of
consu"ptionF so why late= why not now*
Further"ore= the effort at the international le'el is not the only way to control )lo%al
war"in)F all the people can play their indi'idual role as well. After all are the end users
of all that is produced in the industries and ener)y sector. Indi'iduals can help reduce the
)reen house e"issions %y "any ways li7e, dri'in) less= sharin) a car with a friend or
collea)ue to office= eatin) local= i"pro'in) 'ehiclesD fuel efficiency= consu"in) less=
usin) less electricity (and sa'in) "oney)= ener)y efficiency at wor7 and ho"e and %y
reducin) waste products. 1hese acts would ser'e the purpose of e"ission reduction in
two ways, OneF the less6 consu"ption would result less production and su%se>uently less
%urnin) of fuels. 1woF it will )enerate a "oral pressure on the industries and )o'ern"ents
to realise the dile""a and a)ree to the e"ission reduction policy.
1here is a feasi%le counter %alance to reduce 2O2 fro" at"osphere %y )rowin) forests on
land and 'e)etation in sea %ut it will not do "uch. 3lti"ately= a co"%ination of i"pro'ed
ener)y efficiency and alternati'e ener)y resources is the way to "iti)ate )lo%al war"in).
1hou)h it will cost us %ut Ethe earlier effecti'e action is ta7en= the less costly it will %e;=
says Sir !icholas Stern= the 2hief 4cono"ist at Aorld Ban7. Ae need to act now= we
need to act %efore itDs too late= as the "aMor threat fro" )lo%al war"in) is its
unpredicta%ility.
1he )lo%al war"in) has %eco"e the real test of the foundations of our "odern society=
ci'ilisation and de"ocracy. Its anthropo)enic causes are a"ply pro'ed. Its i"plications
ha'e started hittin) hu"anity= which are too har"ful to %e i)nored. 1he solutions are at
hand. 1herefore= the world leaders ha'e responsi%ility to respond to it effecti'ely for the
cause of hu"anity 6 our future )eneration. :2li"ate chan)e= and what we do a%out it= will
define us= our era= and ulti"ately the )lo%al le)acy we lea'e for future )enerations;= says
Ban Hi <oon.
SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
$lo%al ener)y crisis
By Irshad Ali Sodhar (FSP)
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Ahat is ener)y crisis*
3. Share of ener)y resources in ener)y supply
a) !on6renewa%le
%) 0enewa%le
. Aorld consu"ption distri%ution
#. Aorld production distri%ution
(. 2auses of crises
a) Sur)e in de"and
%) 0esource nationalis" ? ti)hter supply
c) Political uncertainty
d) Kac7 of di'ersity
.. I"pact of crises
a) 4cono"y
%) Politics
c) Ge'elop"ent
5. 4n'iron"ental concerns
8. Aay out, 0enewa%le ener)y
19. 2onclusion
<an is dependent on ener)y= which has %een the 7ey to his rapid industrial )rowth and
technolo)ical de'elop"ent. 1he pace of de'elop"ent after industrial re'olution is
unprecedented. Cust 299 years a)o= the world e@perienced ener)y re'olution that launched
the industrial a)e. 1he catalyst to this epochal chan)e was ordinary %lac7 coal 6 an ener)y
rich hydrocar%on. A century later= oil and )as were added to satiate the thirst of industry.
<an still relies "ainly on these fossil fuels.
!e'ertheless "any other sources of ener)y, hydro= solar= nuclear= wind= )eother"al=
%io)as and wa'e ha'e %een taped. 1hese sources of ener)y are not only renewa%le %ut
clean as well. Since the hydrocar%ons are e@hausti%le and their use also threatens hu"an
health and en'iron"entF this fact has necessitated transfor"ation fro" non6renewa%le
ener)y resources to renewa%le and clean ener)y resources so that econo"ic )rowth could
%e sustained and en'iron"ental de)radation could %e pre'ented.
4ner)y is not only 'ital for the industry %ut it is also the life %lood of our daily life. 1he
consu"ption of fossil fuels has increased "anifolds due to rapid industrialisation of
de'elopin) countries li7e 2hina and India. -owe'er= the "aMor proportion of
hydrocar%on is consu"ed %y already de'eloped countries li7e the 3S= Capan and Aestern
4uropean states. 1he fossil fuels are also the "ain source of ener)y for heatin) of houses
and runnin) "otor 'ehicles and )eneration of electricity. Since the de"and has %een
increased far "ore than the increase in the production of fossil fuels= a disproportionate
i"%alance %etween the de"and and supply has %een created which has resulted in ener)y
crisis.
If the fossil fuel production re"ains constant= it is esti"ated that the reser'es will %e
depleted soon. 1he oil crisis of 2995= when petrol prices soared to R1#9 a %arrel= was an
early sy"pto" of such scenario. 1he increasin) de"and coupled with speculations of
depletion of fossil fuels caused s7y roc7etin) rise in the prices= which was the principal
catalyst %ehind econo"ic crises in the world.
1he ener)y crises are caused due to disproportionate dependence on non6renewa%le
ener)y resources fossil fuels. 1he hydrocar%onsF coal oil and )as to)ether constitute 5#
per cent of the worldDs total ener)y supply. 1heir respecti'e share is oil 3. per centF coal
2# per cent and )as 23 per cent (total 5# per cent).
On the other hand the renewa%le resources of ener)yF hydro= solar= wind= nuclear=
)eother"al= %io)as and wa'e constitute only 1# per cent of )lo%al share of ener)y supply.
1hese are also clean sources of ener)y. Gespite their enor"ous %enefits= the renewa%le
sources of ener)y ha'e not %een e@ploited sufficiently due to "any reasons. 1he reasons
"ay include technolo)ical %arriers= initial cost and political co"pulsions. Both the least
de'eloped and de'elopin) countries "ainly face technolo)ical %ac7wardness and
%arriers= while the de'eloped countries ha'e %een too slow and reluctant to transfer their
technolo)y due to the hi)her cost and political reasons.
1he world distri%ution of ener)y consu"ption re'eals that the "ost de'eloped countries
are the hi)hest consu"ers of fossil fuels. 1he 3S= which is the "ost ad'anced country
technolo)ically and richest econo"ically= consu"es 2# per cent of the total world ener)y
output while its population "a7es only fi'e per cent of the world. 1his "a7es A"erica
the hi)hest per capita ener)y consu"in) nation. Second co"es Capan= which consu"es
si@ per cent. 1he Aestern 4uropean countries which are also technolo)ically ad'anced
consu"e 1# per cent of the world ener)y. 2hina= a )rowin) econo"y= consu"es nine per
cent of the world ener)y resources. -owe'er= the rest of the world consu"es only # per
cent of ener)y production.
1his consu"ption is in sharp contrast to the production in respect of re)ional distri%ution.
As the 3S has only 2. per cent of world oil reser'es and 3.# per cent of )as reser'es=
Capan i"ports .# per cent of its ener)y needs= 2hina i"ports "ore than #9 per cent of its
ener)y needs. 1he lar)est fossil fuel reser'es are located in <iddle 4ast and 0ussia. 1he
Ara% countries possess (1 per cent of oil reser'es of the world %ut they are not %i)
consu"ers. 1his une'en distri%ution of consu"ption and production is the one cause of
ener)y crisis. Other three causes %ehind the )lo%al ener)y crisis include sur)e in de"and=
ti)hter supply= political uncertainty in oil producin) countries and lac7 of the di'ersity of
resources. 1hese factors are,
One= the de"and of ener)y resources ha'e sur)ed throu)hout the world. In 18.9= the total
consu"ption of world was 29 Ouadrillion B13 which dou%led in 2999 to 92
Ouadrillion B13 and is now around #99 OB13 hi)her. It is proMected that the ener)y
de"and %y 2939 will %e increased %y #9 per cent.
As the econo"y of world is "ainly dependent upon fossil fuel ener)y= the de"and of oil
and )as is increasin) tre"endously. KetDs ta7e e@a"ple of 2hina has "ore than dou%led
its oil use o'er the past decade to #.## "illion %arrel a day. 1he 3S 4ner)y Infor"ation
Ad"inistration (4IA) has reported that 2hina oil needs could al"ost dou%le to 11 "illion
%arrels a day %y 2929. Sa"e is the case with India= the lar)est )rowin) econo"y in South
Asia. 1he 2entral Asian and South A"erican countries ha'e also "ultiplied their
consu"ption due to rapid industrialisation.
1wo= the supply of oil and )as are "ainly dependent upon the capacity to pu"p fro" the
reser'es. 1hou)h= the Or)anisation of Oil 4@plorin) 2ountries (OP42) %oosted the
supply durin) the pea7 crisis in 2995 %ut that was not enou)h to "eet the de"and of the
"ar7et. Another factor deter"inin) the oil supplies is the 'olatile price "echanis". As
the speculations cause increase in the prices= the oil producin) countries )et hi)her
profits. 1his trend has led to new political concept? 0esource nationalis". 1he
international fir"s ha'e found the"sel'es faced with tou)her ter"s and shut out of
)lo%eDs "ost pro"isin) oil %asins.
1hird= the supply of hydrocar%ons is also affected %y the political condition in the
resource countries. 3nfortunately= the political conditions in all the oil producin) re)ions
are 'olatile. It was painfully felt %y the western world when Ara% leaders cla"ped an oil
e"%ar)o on the 3S in retaliation to Aashin)tonDs support of Israel in the 18.3 <iddle
4ast war. 4'en today the conditions in this re)ion are not sta%le. 1he 3S forces are
occupyin) Ira> in order to secure oil supplies. Iran is facin) sanctions due to nuclear
i"%ro)lio with the Aest. 0ussia is also at odds with 4urope on the )as supplies. -u)o
2ha'e& is %usy in consolidatin) power in Qene&uela where he is facin) the 3S6%ac7ed
political opposition. 1he 2entral Asian States ha'e their own internal political tur"oil.
Fourth= nature has %estowed "an with infinite resources of ener)y %ut "an has "ade
hi"self dependent on the finite resources. 1he lac7 of di'ersity of resources is the chief
cause of ener)y crises. Instead of harnessin) new technolo)y= the industrial )rowth in
de'elopin) countries is increasin)ly dependent on fossil fuels.
Such i"portance of ener)y has "ade it i"portant ele"ent in the forei)n policies of the
independent states. 1he 29th century and dawn of the 21st century ha'e seen wars fou)ht
for oil. In 18..= 2IA prepared a plan :$o to war to )et oil; and su%se>uently= the 3S
went to war with Ira> in 1881$ulf war. A"erica is a)ain there for the sa"e purpose.
Si"ilarly 2hinaDs forei)n policy towards "any re)ions of the world particularly Africa=
the <iddle 4ast and 2aspian Sea re)ion= oil holds a critical status. 2hinaDs 'i%rant
policies in these re)ions are %ein) watchfully "onitored %y Aashin)ton. 1his is also true
for South Asian re)ion. Pa7istan is en)a)ed with Iran for )as pipeline proMect and is
e>ually interested in the 2aspian Sea re)ion ? 2entral Asian States.
Besides these conflicts= the fossil fuels cause ha'oc to our en'iron"ent. 1he
hydrocar%ons are the chief source of )reen house )ases6car%on dio@ide= <ethane=
fluorine= which cause )lo%al warnin). Burnin) coal accounts for 3 per cent of car%on
e"issions. Oil and )as account for another 9 per cent of e"issions of 2O2.
Fears of )lo%al warnin) aside= %urnin) fossil fuel releases che"icals and particulates that
cause cancer= %rain and ner'e da"a)e= %irth defects= lun) inMury= and %reathin) pro%le"s.
1he to@ics released %y co"%ustin) hydrocar%ons pollute the air and water and causes
acid rain and s"o). 1hese ne)ati'e i"plications of %urnin) fossil fuels on hu"an
en'iron"ent and life "a7e it incu"%ent upon "an to di'ersify the ener)y resources.
<an also needs to realise that the fossil fuel ener)y is li"ited and would %e depleted.
-ennery Hissin)er had said= :1he a"ount of ener)y is finite WWW. And co"petition for
access to ener)y can %eco"e the life and death for "any societies;.
FirstF the solar ener)y= the %asic source of ener)y= can %e con'er)ed and con'erted into
different ways= such as si"ple water heatin) for do"estic use or %y the direct con'ersion
of sunli)ht to electrical ener)y usin) "irrors= %oilers or photo'oltaic cells. 2urrently only
9.# per cent of the world ener)y supply is o%tained fro" this source.
SecondF hu"ans ha'e %een harnessin) the wind for thousands of years and ha'e
succeeded in producin) electricity fro" it. Air flowin) throu)h tur%ines or spinnin)
%lades )enerates power that can %e used to pu"p water or )enerate electricity. At present=
the wind ener)y constitutes 9.3 per cent of world ener)y supply %ut it has a )reat
potential. $er"any is producin) 23999 <A fro" wind= which is "ore than Pa7istanDs
total installed electricity )eneration capacity. Ki7e solar ener)y it is also a clean source of
ener)y. Accordin) to the 3S Gepart"ent of 4ner)y the worldDs winds could supply "ore
than 1# ti"es its current ener)y de"and.
1hirdF hydroelectric power is another source of renewa%le ener)y in the natural water
cycle. 1he flow of strea"s can %e "anipulated %y construction of da"s at hi)her altitudes
and the 7inetic ener)y of waterfall is used to rotate the tur%ines to "a7e electricity. 1his
is the 'ery cheaper source and clean for" of ener)y.
FourthF ato"ic ener)y is hailed as panacea to pollution pro%le"s )enerated %y fossil
fuels= and is destined to %e the cheapest source of ener)y. -owe'er= it is also li"ited and
has ha&ardous effects on hu"an health. But )i'en the potential of ener)y and the capacity
of technolo)y to safe)uard the nuclear plants= it is the >uic7est option to sol'e the ener)y
crises in the world as one nuclear pellet (fin)er) produces ener)y e>ui'alent to 1.999
cu%ic feet of natural )as.
FifthF %io"ass is also a potential source of ener)y. -u"ans ha'e %een %urnin) %io"ass
"aterials since the dawn of ti"e. It has %een recently disco'ered to produce clean
co"%usti%le )as fro" waste products such as sewera)e and crop residue. <any countries
ha'e also in'ested in %io6fuels. -owe'er= this is counter6producti'e as it induced rise in
food prices= therefore only %io waste should %e used for ener)y production.
Si@thF another alternate source of oil is "ethanol ? a clear colourless li>uid "ade fro"
natural )as= coal industrial )ar%a)e. 1his is a relia%le source of fuel for auto"o%iles as it
is cheaper and far easier to %e produced in %ul7.
Se'enthF )eother"al ener)y can %e used with heat pu"ps to war" a %uildin)s or
swi""in) pools in winter. 1his can lessen the need for other power to "aintain
co"forta%le te"peratures in %uildin)s= particularly in countries ha'in) 'ery cold winters.
4i)hthF hydro)en has %een touted as the fuel of the future. It is "ost a%undant ele"ent
7nown in the uni'erse and can %e %urnt as a fuel for 'ehicles and industry. If this for" of
ener)y is taped at a lar)er scale= it will e'entually %eco"e societyDs pri"ary ener)y
carrier in the 21st century.
1he "edia and industry clai" that renewa%le ener)ies are not yet econo"ically
co"petiti'e fossil fuels. Perhaps notF %ut )i'en the health and en'iron"ental costs= and
li"it of fossil fuels= the price of renewa%le ener)y is only 'ia%le option. -owe'er= no
renewa%le ener)y for" will sin)le handedly replace oil= %ut to)ether they will %eco"e a
'ery i"portant part of the ener)y "i@ of the future.
As the de"and of ener)y is set to )row rapidly durin) ne@t 29 years the supply of ener)y
is )oin) to decline= which could )i'e rise to co"petition and conflict coupled with
econo"ic insta%ility. <eanwhile= hu"an en'iron"ental and health ha&ards could %eco"e
irreco'era%le. 1herefore= "an should stri'e for ener)y independence that can %e achie'ed
only throu)h fuel choice and co"petition. And the first choice of sustaina%le ener)y is the
clean and renewa%le ener)y.
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Gisaster "ana)e"ent in Pa7istan
By Irshad Ali Sodhar (FSP)
Outline
1. Introduction
2. GisasterF definition and types
3. Gisaster "ana)e"ent
. Phases of disaster "ana)e"entF
a. <iti)ation
%. Preparedness
c. 0esponse
d. 0eco'ery
#. -istory of disasters in Pa7istan
(. Gisaster in the wa7e of recent floods
.. Structure of disaster "ana)e"ent in Pa7istan
5. 0ole of !ational Gisaster <ana)e"ent Authority (!G<A)
8. A%ys"al state of disaster preparedness and "ana)e"ent in Pa7istan
19. I"pacts of wea7 disaster "ana)e"ent
i) Food crisis
ii) -ealth ha&ards
iii) 0a'a)ed infrastructure
i') 3ne"ploy"ent and econo"ic loss
') <ilitancy and cri"e
'i) Political upset
11. An or)anised disaster "ana)e"ent is the need of the hour.
12. <easures to i"pro'e disaster "ana)e"ent in Pa7istan
13. 2onclusion
Pa7istan is one of the "ost disaster prone countries in the world. $enerally di'ided into
natural and "an6"ade= all disasters are "ana)ed %y a syste"atic process of disaster
"ana)e"ent that ai"s at "ini"isin) the da"a)e and restoration of people to their
nor"al state. Pa7istan is well fa"iliar with disasters which ha'e caused a hea'y toll in
ter"s of "en and "aterial.
-owe'er= due to its inade>uate preparedness to "ana)e disasters= it has failed to
effecti'ely cope with the". 1hou)h= after earth>ua7e6299#= a syste"atic effort was
)eared up to de'elop a 'ia%le structure of disaster "ana)e"ent e'ol'in) into
esta%lish"ent of !G<A= it has yet to achie'e the re>uired standards. 1he hea'y floods of
2919 e@posed its unpreparedness and frail "ana)e"ent resultin) in unprecedented
proportion of losses and da"a)es. Since= the "a)nitude of i"plications is too hea'y to
%earF the efficient disaster "ana)e"ent co"es= on the priority= second to none of other
needs. 1herefore= it is necessary to for"ulate an or)anised disaster "ana)e"ent syste"
to cope with disasters that "ay %rea7 out in future.
Gisaster is defined as Xa catastrophic e'ent that %rin)s a%out )reat da"a)e= destruction
and de'astation to life and property.X 1he da"a)e caused %y disasters 'aries dependin)
upon )eo)raphical location= cli"ate se'erity and a%o'e all= the types of disasters.
Gisasters ha'e %een classified into two cate)ories 6 natural disasters and "an6"ade
disasters. 2yclones= tsuna"i= floods= drou)hts= earth>ua7es and 'olcanoes are a few
e@a"ples of natural disastersF and wars and nuclear accidents fall in the cate)ory of the
"an6"ade disasters. All these cala"ities and catastrophes incur hea'y toll on "an and his
ha%itat. -owe'er= the disasters can %e "iti)ated and losses can %e "ini"ised with
efficient preparedness and "ana)e"ent.
Gisaster "ana)e"ent is the "echanis" of coordinatin) and utilisin) a'aila%le resources
to deal e"er)encies effecti'ely= there%y sa'in) li'es= a'oidin) inMuries and "ini"isin)
losses. 1his also deals with strate)ic and or)anisational "ana)e"ent processes used to
protect 'ital assets fro" ha&ard ris7s in such e"er)encies.
As "entioned earlier= disaster "ana)e"ent is a syste"atic process= consistin) ostensi%ly
of four "ain phases, response= reco'ery= relief and reha%ilitation. -owe'er= it re"ains
inco"plete without "iti)ation and preparedness= which are %asically pre6disaster
"ana)e"ent phases. All these phases are crucially i"portant in "ana)in) disasters.
<iti)ation= the 'ery first phase of disaster "ana)e"ent= is a sustained action that reduces
%oth short6ter" and lon)6ter" ris7s to people and property fro" the ha&ards and their
effects. It in'ol'es acti'ities li7e scientific ha&ard analysis= 'ulnera%ility analysis= ris7
assess"ent= a'oidin) construction in hi)h ris7 &ones= launchin) awareness ca"pai)ns=
trainin) and capacity %uildin) of responders and "ana)ers= etc. <iti)ation= therefore= is a
persistence effort to lessen the i"pact that disasters "ay incur.
Preparedness= the second phase of disaster "ana)e"ent= is defined %y $lo%al
Ge'elop"ent 0esearch 2enter as Xa set of steps that enhance the a%ility of co""unities
and )o'ern"ent to respond to a disaster.X 1he steps included in this phase are the
"aintenance of resource in'entory= stoc7pilin)= lo)istic plannin)= e'acuation plannin)=
co""unication plannin)= and needs assess"ent. 1he 7ey to effecti'e disaster
"ana)e"ent is readiness to pro'ide a rapid e"er)ency response. It entails e'eryone to %e
prepared to respond to e@tre"e situations.
0esponse= the ne@t phase of disaster "ana)e"ent= includes the action of respondin) to an
e"er)ency. It ai"s to pro'ide i""ediate e"er)ency support to a co""unity to "aintain
health= safety and "orale until a per"anent solution can %e put in place. 1he steps
in'ol'ed in response phase are situation analysis= crisis "aps= infor"ation
co""unication= e'acuation and shelters= dispatchin) of resources and early da"a)e
assess"ent. Besides= trained and e>uipped personnel are re>uired to deal with an
e"er)in) crisis.
0eco'ery= finally= is the process of returnin) to nor"al. 0eco'ery phase "ay %e short6
ter" as well as lon)6ter"= and it %e)ins after the disaster co""ences. 0eco6'ery phase is
o'erlapped %y reconstruction= reha%ilitationF spatial plannin)= infrastructure %uildin)=
housin)= li'elihood= social security= transport= clean drin7in) water= co""unication and
a)riculture.
Pre'iously= Pa7istan has fallen 'icti" to disasters "any a ti"e. 1he earth>ua7e6299#=
-un&a landslides and Floods 2919 are so"e of the incidents. 1he a'aila%le data su))ests
that Pa7istan suffered hea'ily at the hands of these disasters owin) to the lac7 of efficient
disaster "ana)e"ent.
0ecently= the spate of floods that %e)an late in Culy of 2919 dealt a serious %low to
Pa7istan. 1he floods with such a "a)nitude had ne'er %een witnessed in the history of
Pa7istan. 1orrential "onsoon rains in Hhy%er6Pa7htun7hwa= Sindh= Balochistan and
PunMa% were pri"arily responsi%le for the floods. 1he hea'y rains also affected Indus
ri'er %asin. Al"ost one/fifth of Pa7istan su%"er)ed in water. <oreo'er= al"ost 29
"illion people were directly affected %y the destruction of property= li'elihood and
infrastructure. And the death toll rose to a%out 2=999 people. -ad there %een no institute
to deal with this natural cala"ity= the da"a)e caused %y floods would ha'e %een "uch
"ore.
-owe'er= despite esta%lish"ent of !ational Gisaster <ana)e"ent Authority (!G<A)
the response was too slow to "eet the "a)nitude of challen)e. 1he purpose %ehind its
esta%lish"ent was to chan)e national response to e"er)ency situations fro" reactionary
"odel to an acti'e "iti)ation= preparedness= response and reco'ery "odel. !G<A is the
e@ecuti'e ar" of the !ational Gisaster <ana)e"ent 2o""ission (!G<2) headed %y
Pri"e <inister. Also= !G<A super'ises Pro'incial Gisaster <ana)e"ent Authorities
(PG<A) and Gistrict Gisaster <ana)e"ent Authorities (GG<A).
1he !ational Gisaster <ana)e"ent Authority has %een assi)ned the tas7 of coordinatin)
the disaster ris7 "ana)e"ent at the national le'el= i"ple"entin) disaster ris7
"ana)e"ent strate)ies= "appin) the ha&ards= de'elopin) )uidelines= ensurin) the
esta%lish"ent of disaster "ana)e"ent authorities and 4"er)ency Operation 2entres
(4O2s) at pro'incial= district and "unicipal le'els= pro'idin) technical assistance to
concerned depart"ents= or)anisin) trainin) to personnel= ser'in) as a lead a)ency for
!$Os and international cooperation= coordinatin) with the federal )o'ern"ent throu)h
!ational 4"er)ency Operation 2entre (!4O2) and re>uirin) any )o'ern"ent
depart"ent or a)ency to "a7e a'aila%le needed resources and personnel.
Gespite esta%lish"ent of this or)anisation assi)ned with apparently "ultifarious tas7s=
disasters in Pa7istan are hardly "ana)ed effecti'ely. Its preparedness and response durin)
recent floods were found inade>uate. :For 19 days= the floodin) was only in this
pro'ince. But we didnYt hear fro" the !G<A and nor did we see any !G<A official. !o
one e'en contacted us=; said Hhy%er6Pa7htun7hwa Infor"ation <inister Ifti7har -ussain.
Gisaster "ana)e"ent= particularly preparedness in Pa7istan has lar)ely re"ained
unsatisfactory. 1he underlyin) factors responsi%le for its inefficiency= %esides insufficient
resources= are lac7 of proacti'e approach and transparency. <oreo'er= this a)ency has yet
to pro'e its credi%ility= strate)y and efficiency of infrastructure which lie at the 'ery heart
of these critical situations. Another factor that ha"pers the s"ooth functionin) of disaster
"ana)e"ent process is duplication of efforts which arise due to the lac7 of inte)ration
%etween 'arious a)encies and or)anisations in'ol'ed in the process. 2onse>uently= these
"ultiple factors render "ana)e"ent process wea7 and= therefore= people %ear the %runt
on their shoulders.
Aea7er disaster "ana)e"ent= ne'ertheless= accounts for the da"a)es caused %y floods
uptill nowF as International <onetary Fund (I<F) puts it= XFloods which ha'e de'astated
Pa7istan will present a "assi'e econo"ic and political challen)e to its )o'ern"ent and
people.X Apart fro" econo"ic and social losses= loo"in) food crisis= ra'a)ed
infrastructure= "ultiple health related pro%le"s and increased chances of proliferation of
e@tre"is" are %ut a few ad'erse i"pacts of wea7 disaster "ana)e"ent.
Spea7in) of the food crisis= al"ost 1. "illion acres of a)ricultural land su%"er)ed under
water. Accordin) to Gaily Finance= XA "aMor concern was that the far"ers would %e
una%le to "eet the fall deadline for plantin) new seeds in 2919 which i"plied a loss of
food production in 2911 and potential lon)6ter" food shorta)es.X Additionally= se'en lac
acres cotton crops= two lac acres su)arcane= two lac acres rice= fi'e lac tonnes of stoc7ed
wheat= three lac acres of ani"al fodder and stores of )rain were lost %esides two lac
li'estoc7.
In addition to food crisis= out%rea7 of 'arious diseases further a))ra'ates the situations.
Scores of people ha'e %een affected %y the fatal diseases li7e )astroenteritis and diarrhea
due to the non6a'aila%ility of clean drin7in) water and proper sanitation facilities. Also=
the eruption of cholera and "ultiple s7in diseases alon) with "alaria has added to their
sufferin). Apart fro" these diseases= there is a sheer dearth of "aternity care for
thousands of pre)nant wo"en. 1hus= these 'icti"s need "edical attention on war
footin)s to sa'e in'alua%le hu"an li'es. 1he authorities were not prepared to deal with
such situation. 4'en thou)h= the floods were "o'in) )radually ahead= they could not ta7e
precautionary "easures in the prone areas.
1here has %een a hu)e loss to infrastructure. Accordin) to Ball State 3ni'ersity 2enter
esti"ate= around 381( 7" hi)hway and a%out #(( 7" railway trac7 has %een da"a)ed.
1heir repair costs are e@pected to %e at least R1#5 "illion and R131 "illion= respecti'ely.
On the other hand= pu%lic da"a)e accountin) to al"ost R1 %illion resulted in response to
floods. 1he sorry state of affairs was re'ealed when authorities were una%le to rather
incapa%le of restorin) the cut off routes and %reaches in ri'er %an7s.
0esultantly= country recei'ed a serious econo"ic Molt. In this re)ard= International Ka%our
Or)anisation (IKO) said that al"ost #.3 "illion people %eca"e Mo%less. 1herefore=
Xproducti'e and la%our intensi'e Mo% creation pro)ra""es are ur)ently needed to lift
"illions of people out of po'erty that has %een a))ra'ated %y flood da"a)e.X
Further"ore $GP would decline fro" o'erall per cent to 62 to 6# per cent. 2rop losses
ha'e stu%%orn i"pact on te@tile industry, the lar)est "anufacturin) industry of Pa7istan.
Besides= the i"plications include )rowth in "ilitancy and cri"e. YAs soon as Pa7istan
Ar"y di'erted fro" fi)htin) "ilitant insur)ents in the north6west to help in relief efforts=
1ali%an "ilitants were )i'en a reprie'e to re)roupY= o%ser'ed the Associated Press. O'er
and a%o'e= the Mo%less= desperate and deMected youn)sters fro" the affected areas are an
easy prey to "ilitant recruit"ent and cri"inal acti'ities. It "ay a))ra'ate the security
situation )i'en the inefficiency of the )o'ern"ent to address the pro%le"s of the 'icti"s.
If o%ser'ed politically= pu%lic "ay percei'e the )o'ern"ent inefficient thus )i'in) rise to
an episode of political unrest. !ot only people= the outside donors ha'e also %eco"e
s7eptic. <ore than that= "i)ration of internally displaced people (IGP) to ur%an areas
incited ur%an sectarian discord which further hindered the process of "ana)e"ent of
disaster.
In the li)ht of a%o'e facts= it is e'ident that Pa7istan is in dire need of an or)anised
disaster "ana)e"ent pro)ra""e to face the e"er)ency situations and their i"plications.
So far= disor)anised and ad hoc "ethods had %een in practice in disaster "ana)e"ent
syste". It is %ecause of this that the country suffered "ore. 1herefore= it is incu"%ent
upon the $o'ern"ent of Pa7istan to stren)then its policies of disaster "ana)e"ent.
In other words= disaster "ana)e"ent should %e a"on)st the top priorities of )o'ern"ent.
!G<A can %e stren)thened %y proper allocation of funds= research= e>uip"ent= trainin)
and "aintenance of transparency. In this re)ard= effecti'e co""unication %etween
concerned a)encies and with people is a "ust. 4"%an7"ent of ri'ers= disaster proof
housin) and infrastructure= early warnin)s= rapid e'acuation= no"ination of dan)er &ones
prior to disaster= esta%lish"ent of rescue centres and creatin) pu%lic awareness a%out
disasters and safety techni>ues with their inclusion in curriculu" will surely pay
di'idends.
Gisasters often co"e without early warnin)s= recent floods in Pa7istan= howe'er= too7 a
)radual course. But lac7 of sound disaster "ana)e"ent and unpreparedness policies and
their i"ple"entation has resulted in )ra'e da"a)es to Pa7istan in all the pre'ious
disasters. 1herefore= the onus lies upon the $o'ern"ent of Pa7istan to re'isit its policies
and stren)then institutions to not only tac7le such situations %ut "a7in) the" to our %est
use. It is hi)h ti"e that the )o'ern"ent as well as e'ery citi&en of Pa7istan plays its own
respecti'e role to %rin) a%out a positi'e chan)e.
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Status of Ao"en in Isla"
By Gr. !aMa"6us6Sahar Butt (FSP)
1here is a lot of tal7 a%out wo"enDs ri)hts in Pa7istan and other <usli" countries these
days. 1he western "edia is proMectin) a 'ery )rueso"e and poor pli)ht of the wo"en in
<usli" countries with the intention of distortin) the section i"a)e of Isla".
3nfortunately= this propa)anda is pro'in) >uite effecti'e and the entire west and a s"all
section of fe"ales in our society ha'e "isinterpreted Isla" as %ein) the cause of their
trou%les instead of the Aryan culture that we ha'e inherited.
Fa"ily= society and ulti"ately the whole "an7ind are treated %y Isla" on an ethical
%asis. Gifferentiation in )ender is neither a credit nor a draw%ac7 to anyone. 1herefore=
when we tal7 a%out status of wo"an in Isla" we should not thin7 that Isla" has no
specific )uidelines= li"itations= responsi%ilities and o%li)ations for "en. Ahat "a7es one
'alua%le and respecta%le in the eyes of Allah= the 2reator of "an7ind and the uni'erse= is
neither oneYs prosperity= position= intelli)ence= physical stren)th nor %eauty= %ut only one
Allah6consciousness and awareness (ta>wa).
Isla" was re'ealed at a ti"e when people denied the hu"anity of the wo"anF so"e were
s7eptical a%out itF and still others ad"itted it= yet considered the wo"an a thin) created
for the hu"%le ser'ice of the "an.
Aith the ad'ent of Isla"= circu"stances i"pro'ed for the wo"an. 1he wo"anYs di)nity
and hu"anity were ac7nowled)ed for the first ti"e. Isla" confir"ed wo"anDs capacity
to carry out AllahYs co""ands= her responsi%ilities and o%ser'ation of the co""ands that
lead to hea'en.
Isla" considers wo"an as a worthy hu"an %ein)= with an e>ual share in hu"anity to that
of the "an. Both are two %ranches of a sin)le tree and two children fro" the sa"e father=
Ada"= and "other= 4'e. 1heir sin)le ori)in= their )eneral hu"an traits= their
responsi%ility for the o%ser'ation of reli)ious duties with the conse>uent reward or
punish"ent= and the unity of their destiny all %ear witness to their e>uality fro" the
Isla"ic point of 'iew.
1he status of wo"en in Isla" is so"ethin) uni>ue that has no parallel in any other
reli)ion. In the "idst of the dar7ness that en)ulfed the world= the di'ine re'elation
echoed in the wide desert of Ara%ia with a fresh= no%le= and uni'ersal "essa)e to
hu"anity,
XO <an7ind= 7eep your duty to your Kord who created you fro" a sin)le soul and fro" it
created its "ate (of sa"e 7ind) and fro" the" twain has spread a "ultitude of "en and
wo"enX.(An6!isa,1)
A scholar who pondered a%out this 'erse states,
XIt is %elie'ed that there is no te@t= old or new= that deals with the hu"anity of the wo"an
fro" all aspects with such a"a&in) %re'ity= elo>uence= depth= and ori)inality as this
di'ine decree.X
Stressin) this no%le and natural conception= then the Ouran states,
:-e ($od) it is who did create you fro" a sin)le soul and there fro" did create his "ate=
that he "i)ht dwell with her (in lo'e);.(Ouran .,158)
In the early days of Isla" when a )irl was %orn= she was %uried ali'e. 1his custo" is still
o%ser'ed in -induis". -owe'er= the -oly Ouran for%ade this custo" and considered it a
cri"e li7e any other "urder. 1he Ouran says, 6
XAnd when the fe"ale (infant) %uried ali'e 6 is >uestioned= for what cri"e she was
7illed.X(Ouran 51, 568)
Far fro" sa'in) the )irlYs life so that she "ay later suffer inMustice and ine>uality= Isla"
re>uires 7ind and Must treat"ent to her. 1he sayin)s of -oly Prophet <uha""ad (SAA)=
in this re)ard= are followin),
:Ahosoe'er has a dau)hter and he does not %ury her ali'e= does not insult her= and does
not fa'or his son o'er her= $od will enter hi" into Paradise;.
1he -oly Ouran pro'ides us a clear6cut proof that wo"an is e>ual in all respects with
"an %efore $od in ter"s of her ri)hts and responsi%ilities. 1he -oly Ouran states,
X4'ery soul will %e (held) in pled)e for its deedsX
(Ouran .,35)
In ter"s of reli)ious o%li)ations= such as offerin) daily prayers= fastin) and pil)ri"a)e=
wo"an is no different fro" "an. In so"e cases indeed= wo"an has certain ad'anta)es
o'er "an. For e@a"ple wo"en can and did )o into the "os>ue durin) the days of the
-oly Prophet (SAA) and thereafter attend the Friday prayers is optional for the" while it
is "andatory for "en.
1his is clearly a tender touch of the Isla"ic teachin)s %ecause of the fact that a wo"an
"ay %e nursin) her %a%y and thus "ay %e una%le to offer prayers in "os>ue. 1hey also
ta7e into account the physiolo)ical and psycholo)ical chan)es associated with her natural
fe"ale functions.
1he ri)ht of fe"ales to see7 7nowled)e is not different fro" that of "ales. Ahen Isla"
enMoins the see7in) of 7nowled)e upon <usli"s= it "a7es no distinction %etween "an
and wo"an. -oly Prophet <uha""ad (SAA) said,
XSee7in) 7nowled)e is "andatory for e'ery <usli"X.
1his declaration was 'ery clear and was i"ple"ented %y <usli"s throu)hout history.
Accordin) to a hadith attri%uted to -oly Prophet <uha""ad (PB3-)= he praised the
wo"en of <edina %ecause of their desire for reli)ious 7nowled)e.
X-ow splendid were the wo"en of the AnsarF sha"e did not pre'ent the" fro"
%eco"in) learned in the faith.X
3nder Isla"ic law= "arria)e was no lon)er 'iewed as a XstatusX %ut rather as a XcontractX=
in which the wo"anYs consent was i"perati'e. 1he dowry= pre'iously re)arded as a
%ride6price paid to the father= %eca"e a nuptial )ift retained %y the wife as part of her
personal property.
1he -oly Ouran clearly indicates that "arria)e is sharin) %etween the two hal'es of the
society and that its o%Mecti'es= %esides perpetuatin) hu"an life= are e"otional well6%ein)
and spiritual har"ony. Its %ases are lo'e and "ercy.
1he rules for "arried life in Isla" are clear and in har"ony with upri)ht hu"an nature.
In consideration of the physiolo)ical and psycholo)ical "a7e6up of "an and wo"an=
%oth ha'e e>ual ri)hts and clai"s on each other= e@cept for one responsi%ility= that of
leadership. 1his is a "atter which is natural in any collecti'e life and which is consistent
with the nature of "an. 1he -oly Ouran thus states,
XAnd they (wo"en) ha'e ri)hts si"ilar to those (of "en) o'er the"= and "en are a
de)ree a%o'e the".X(Ouran 2,225)
Such de)ree is Ouiwa"a ("aintenance and protection). 1his refers to that natural
difference %etween the )enders which entitles the wea7er )ender to protection. It i"plies
no superiority or ad'anta)e %efore law. +et= "anYs role of leadership in relation to his
fa"ily does not "ean the hus%andYs dictatorship o'er his wife. Isla" e"phasi&es the
i"portance of ta7in) counsel and "utual a)ree"ent in fa"ily decisions. 1he -oly Ouran
)i'es us an e@a"ple,
X...If they (hus%and wife) desire to wean the child %y "utual consent and (after)
consultation= there is no %la"e on the"...X(Ouran 2,233)
Isla" also )i'es the option of di'orce to the wo"en and educated "en to "a7e a )racious
end to the relationship is it cannot %e continued. 1he -oly Ouran states a%out such cases,
:And when you ha'e di'orced wo"en and they ha'e fulfilled the ter" of their prescri%ed
period= either ta7e the" %ac7 on reasona%le %asis or set the" free on reasona%le %asis.
But do not ta7e the" %ac7 to hurt the"= and whoe'er does that= then he wa wron)ed
hi"self.X(Ouran 2, 231)
Ao"an is entitled to freedo" of e@pression e>ual to "an. -er sound opinions are ta7en
into consideration and cannot %e disre)arded Must %ecause she %elon)s to the fe"ale se@.
It is "entioned in the -oly Ouran and history that wo"an can not only e@pressed her
opinion freely %ut also ar)ued and participated in serious discussions with the -oly
Prophet (SAA) hi"self as well as with other <usli" leaders.
Apart fro" reco)nition of wo"an as an independent hu"an %ein) ac7nowled)ed as
e>ually essential for the sur'i'al of hu"anity= Isla" has )i'en her a share in inheritance.
Before Isla"= she was not only depri'ed of that share %ut was considered as inherited
property to "an.
Out of the transfera%le property= Isla" has "ade her an heir= ac7nowled)in) the inherent
hu"an >ualities in wo"an. Ahether she is a wife= "other= a sister or dau)hter= she
recei'es a certain share fro" the deceased 7inYs property= a share which depends on her
de)ree of relationship to the deceased and the nu"%er of heirs. 1his share is hers= and no
one can ta7e it away or disinherit her.
Ao"an enMoys certain pri'ile)es which "an do not ha'e. She is e@e"pted fro" all
financial lia%ilities. As a "other= she enMoys "ore reco)nition and hi)her honour in the
eyes of $od. 1he -oly Prophet (SAA) ac7nowled)ed this honour when he declared that
Paradise lies under the feet of "others.
She is entitled to three6fourths of the sonYs lo'e and 7indness with one6fourth left for their
father. As a wife she is entitled to de"and of her prospecti'e hus%and a suita%le dowry
that will %e hers. She is entitled to co"plete pro'ision and total "aintenance %y the
hus%and. She does not ha'e to wor7 or share with her hus%and the fa"ily e@penses. She
is free to retain= after "arria)e= whate'er she possessed %efore it= and the hus%and has no
ri)ht whatsoe'er to any of her %elon)in)s.
As a dau)hter or sister she is entitled to security and pro'ision %y the father and %rother
respecti'ely. 1hat is her pri'ile)e. If she wishes to wor7 or %e self6supportin) and share
fa"ily responsi%ilities= she is >uite free to do so= pro'ided her inte)rity and honour are
safe)uarded.
By now it is clear that the status of wo"an in Isla" is unprecedentedly hi)h and
realistically suita%le to her nature. -er ri)hts and duties are e>ual to those of "an %ut not
necessarily or a%solutely identical with the". If she is depri'ed of one thin) in so"e
aspect= she is fully co"pensated for it with "ore thin)s in "any other aspects.
1he fact that she %elon)s to the fe"ale se@ has no %earin) on her status or personality=
and it is no %asis for Mustification of preMudice or inMustice a)ainst her.
It is also worthwhile to state that the status which wo"en reached today in the west was
not achie'ed due to the 7indness of "en or natural pro)ress. It was rather achie'ed
throu)h her lon) stru))le and sacrifices and only when society needed her contri%ution
and wor7= "ore especially durin) the 1wo Aorld Aars and due to the escalation of
technolo)ical chan)e.
In the case of Isla" such co"passionate and di)nified status was decreed= neither %ecause
it reflects the en'iron"ent of the se'enth century= nor under the threat or pressure of
wo"en and their or)anisations= %ut rather its intrinsic truthfulness of Isla".
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Pa7istan 0ich in !atural 0esources
But Poor in their <ana)e"ent
By Irshad Ali Sodhar (FSP)
Outline
16 Introduction
26 !atural 0esources and their "ana)e"ent
36 0ichness / a%undance of natural resources in Pa7istan
6 Pa7istanYs natural resources and their "is"ana)e"ent
a) 4ner)y resources
i6 !onrenewa%le ener)y resources
a. Oil and $as reser'es
%. 2oal reser'es
ii6 0enewa%le ener)y resources
a. Aind and solar power
%. -ydropower
%) A)ricultural resources
i6 Irri)ation !etwor7
ii6 Fertile Kand
iii6 Qariety of 2rops
i'6 Ani"al -us%andry
'6 Fishin)
c) <ineral Ore 0esources
i. 2opper and )old resources.
ii. Salt "ines and other "inerals
d) -u"an resources
i. Si@th Kar)est Population in the Aorld
ii. +outh co"prisin) "aMor chuc7
#6 Factors leadin) to poor "ana)e"ent / $o'ernance
a) Political insta%ility/ ri'alry=
%) Kac7 of 'ision and plannin)=
c) Flawed policies=
d) Bureaucratic %ottlenec7s and corruption=
e) Aorsened Kaw and order situation=
(6 I"plications of "is"ana)e"ent of natural resources
.6 Aay forward
56 2onclusion
Pa7istan is one of the richest countries in the world in ter"s of natural resources %ut also
one of the poorest a"on) the" in their "ana)e"ent. 1he country is a%undant in the 'ital
resources includin) that of ener)y= a)riculture= "inerals= population= and )eo)raphy= %ut
unli7e the de'eloped countries= these ha'e not %een properly e@ploited due to poor
"ana)e"ent. 1his dis"ayed situation is caused due to se'eral= %oth chronic and acute=
flaws which ha'e led to poor )o'ernance of country since its inception e@cept so"e %rief
spells of econo"ic prosperity. Pre'alent political ri'alry and insta%ility= worsenin) law
and order and ra"pant corruption ha'e cataly&ed the situation to resource de'elop"ent
i"passe. 2ontrary to econo"ic potential of its natural resources= Pa7istan is a dependin)
on forei)n aid and de%t= it is facin) deficit in trade= acute ener)y crisis to run industry=
and water stress for a)riculture= to na"e a few challen)es.
-owe'er= the dauntin) challen)es and the "ountin) pu%lic pressure caused due to
awareness of ci'il society are increasin)ly influencin) the political decision "a7in).
4'entually= there is si)n of hope for de'isin) effecti'e strate)y to e@ploit the natural
resource wealth of the country for its self sufficiency and 'ia%le econo"ic de'elop"ent.
It is suffice to say that the proper e@ploitation of this wealth would lead to the prosperity
of this nation.
Before discussin) what natural resources Pa7istan possesses= it is i"portant to understand
what constitutes natural resources. 1hese occur naturally within en'iron"ents
characterised %y a"ounts of %iodi'ersity and )eodi'ersity e@istent in 'arious ecosyste"s.
So"e resources li7e water and a)riculture are essential for sur'i'al of inha%itants while
others li7e ener)y and "inerals are secondary in nature %ut essential for econo"ic
de'elop"ent. -owe'er= efficient "ana)e"ent of these resources is 'ital to achie'e
prosperity of nation. !atural resource "ana)e"ent is a discipline with a particular focus
on how "ana)e"ent affects the >uality of life for %oth present and future )enerations. It
is interrelated with the concept of sustaina%le de'elop"ent. Pa7istan is %lessed with hu)e
>uantity of resources %ut la)s in "ana)e"ent.
Bein) situated at one of the %est )eo)raphic and )eostrate)ic locations on the "ap of
world= Pa7istan is affluent in the natural resources. It has enor"ous ener)y surplus
resource potential of %oth renewa%le and nonrenewa%le= which is )reater than that of oil
rich countries of $ulf. A"on) the worldYs 299 plus countries it has the second lar)est salt
"ines= second lar)est coal reser'es= fifth lar)est copper and )old reser'es= se'enth lar)est
wheat and rice production capacity. It is the si@th "ost populous country in the world
ha'in) lar)e share of youn) population. -ad these resources %een properly "ana)ed= this
country would ha'e %een one of the richest econo"ies of world. 1he detailed account of
the natural wealth of Pa7istan shows how such )reat potential has %een untapped due to
"is"ana)e"ent.
1here are plenty of nonrenewa%le ener)y resources li7e oil= )as and coal in Pa7istan. It
has "ore than 3(.2 "illion %arrels of oil= accordin) to 2IA Aorld Fact Boo7= and 31.3
trillion cu%ic feet of pro'en )as reser'es. 1he current oil production is (#=88. %arrels per
day while )as production is %illion cu%ic feet per day. 1hou)h it is not enou)h to "eet
the needs= it can sa'e considera%le outflow of currency. <oreo'er= there is resource
potential of 2. %illion Barrels of Oil and 252 12F of )as reser'es in the country which
has not %een e@plored due to lac7 of 'ision and flawed policies.
Pa7istan has worldYs second lar)est coal deposits of 15# %illion tons. 1hese are esti"ated
to %e e>ui'alent to (15 %illion %arrels of crude oil. 1his is "ore than twice if we co"pare
it with oil reser'es of Saudi Ara%ia. If it is con'erted into oil %y )asification= it will
)enerate (#9 %arrels of crude oil which at an a'era)e "ar7et rate of ei)hty dollars per
%arrel= would )enerate #.2 trillion dollars. But the policy "a7in) elite of the country has
not only %een o%li'ious to the potential %ut also indifferent to the slow pace of efforts to
harness this source for ener)y production and e@ports. 1he ener)y deficit is %adly
affectin) the industry in country %ut no any serious initiati'e is ta7en for electricity
production fro" coal. 2hina i"ports its (# percent of coal re>uire"ents %ut despite %ein)
Yall weather friendY= this )iant ener)y i"portin) econo"y does not i"port coal fro"
Pa7istan.
Besides= the )eo)raphy of Pa7istan enriches it with the renewa%le ener)y resources. Aind
and Solar ener)y are other unused lifelines of Pa7istan. 19( 7" lon) coastal line )i'es
potential of 9999 <A of electricity. 1he 'ast lands of Balochistan can %e utili&ed for
solar electricity )eneration. But unfortunately these resources ha'e %arely %een used due
to technolo)ical %ac7wardness and lac7 of inno'ati'e policies.
1he hydropower potential of the country is also enou)h to satisfy the needs of ener)y.
Only 33 percent of around 29=999 <A )eneration capacity is produced fro" this
resource which has the potential of producin) 9=999 <A. !o concrete steps ha'e %een
ta7en to harness this resource "ainly %ecause of political differences and distrust
pre'ailin) in the country.
1he lac7 of 'ision and policy plannin) in utilisation of water resource is also se'erely
affectin) a)riculture. Gespite ha'in) one of the lar)est irri)ation syste"s of the world=
Pa7istan is facin) water scarcity for crops. Stora)e capacity of water reser'oirs is >uic7ly
depletin) %ecause of annual sedi"ent inflow and a su%stantial >uantu" of a'aila%le water
is lost in seepa)e as the canals ha'e not %een ce"ented. Out of .. "illion acres culti'a%le
area= only ##.# "illion acres ha'e %een plou)hed. 1he country is %lessed with four
seasons and 'ariety of crops %ut due to lac7 of research the producti'ity re"ains low.
In addition= %ein) an a)ricultural country it possesses tre"endous scope of ani"al
hus%andry. Pa7istanYs %reeds of cow li7e Sahiwal cow are the %est %reeds of world. Gue
care to this area can lead to %ul7 of e@ports in dairy products. On other hand= fishin)
industry has an i"portant role to play in national econo"y of Pa7istan. 1he coast line of
51 7" pro'ides a"ple opportunity to enhance this industry= %ut poor perfor"ance and
poor presentation of our cause in A1O ha'e put this industry at the 'er)e of destruction.
1he "inerals are also 'ital natural resources a'aila%le in )reat >uantity. Pa7istan has fifth
lar)est copper and )old reser'es in the world. 1he 0i7o de> proMect= copper and )old
reser'oir= ha'e %een esti"ated to %e worth of 2(9 %illion dollars= which is ten ti"es the
all financial aid recei'ed fro" 3SA in last si@ty year. But instead of e@ploitin) own
resources for econo"ic independence= country has %een dependent on forei)n aid. -ow
rich Pa7istan is= and how poor Pa7istanis are[ 1here are other partially untapped
resources of roc7 salts= $ypsu"= li"e stone= iron= "ar%le= and silica sand in lar)e
>uantities. 1hese resources ha'e not %een e@ploited due to corruption and %ottlenec7s in
political and %ureaucratic culture.
1he "ost i"portant of the natural resources in this )lo%ali&ed world is hu"an resource.
Pa7istan is the si@th "ost populous country in the world ha'in) lar)e share of Yyoun)
populationY i.e. (3 percent %elow a)e of 2# years= accordin) to 3nited !ations
Ge'elop"ent Pro)ra""e. But the failed policies ha'e caused "ountin) une"ploy"ent
of 1# percent. 1he resource which could %e used to enhance the econo"ic acti'ity is left
to no use which is addin) to the increase in po'erty. 1he lac7 of opportunities leadin) to
the %rain drain of talented "inds has further worsened the situation.
1he a%o'e analysis re'eals that Pa7istan is not poor= %ut poorly "ana)ed country. 1he
factors which ha'e caused the poor "ana)e"ent of natural resources include political
insta%ility= political indecision "a7in) / di'er)ence= lac7 of 'ision and plannin)= flawed
policies= %ureaucratic %ottlenec7s and corruption= lac7 of hu"an resource de'elop"ent=
worsened law and order situation. 1hese factors ha'e led not only to the poor
"ana)e"ent of natural resources %ut also to the poor )o'ernance of country.
1he political insta%ility has %een the "ain cause of such "ayhe". Since the
independence= no political )roup in Pa7istan has %een )i'en enou)h ti"e to %e "ature.
1he "ilitary interference in politics and ri'alry a"on) political sta7eholders are the 7ey
features of %rief history of this country. 1his inconsistency has 7ept the e@ploitation of
natural wealth unattended. 1he di'er)ence of opinion on construction of water resources
has depri'ed the country of storin) the surplus water for a)riculture and electricity
)eneration. -owe'er= this could %e o'erco"e %y 'ision and plannin)= which is a scarce
co""odity here. Instead of contro'ersial %i) da"s se'eral s"all reser'oirs could %e
constructed= had a pra)"atic approach pre'ailed a"on) the decision "a7in) "achinery.
2oupled with this= the flawed policies of successi'e )o'ern"ents ha'e caused
tre"endous pro%le"s despite a'aila%ility of ade>uate resources. 1he ener)y sector is a
'i'id e@a"ple of such poor "ana)e"ent. 1he "aMor chun7 of the electricity is produced
throu)h ther"al )eneration for which al"ost 59 percent of oil is i"ported. Ahereas the
second lar)est treasure of coal in the world is left une@plored as it contri%utes only 2
percent of electricity )eneration. 2ountries li7e 3S= 2hina and India )enerate electricity
%y al"ost (9 percent fro" coal due to its lower cost. 1his shows how other countries ta7e
cost of electricity )eneration into serious consideration.
-owe'er= it would %e unfair to put all the %urden of poor resource "ana)e"ent on the
political factors. 1he %ureaucratic %ottlenec7s and corruption ha'e %een e>ually
responsi%le for this undesira%le scenario. Se'eral hydro power proMects= 1har coal proMect=
and oil e@ploration proMects are in doldru"s due to %ureaucratic %ottlenec7s. 1here is no
headway in solar and wind ener)y proMects planned %y Alternati'e 4ner)y Ge'elop"ent
Board. Si"ilarly= corruption has also %een e@tre"ely detri"ental. 1he standstill in the
0i7o de> proMect is an e@a"ple of this case. Pa7istan is ran7ed at 3 in 2orruption
Perception Inde@ 2919 %y 1ransparency International= which is a discoura)in) factor for
forei)n direct in'est"ent.
In addition= the worsened law and order situation has caused se'ere %low to the econo"y
in )eneral and natural resource "ana)e"ent in particular. 1he 'olatile situation in
Balochistan is har"ful to the e@ploitation of resources. 1he $awadar port= despite %ein)
located at crucial location= has not %een "ade fully functional. Other proMects of "ineral
e@ploration are also affected. 1he terroris" in the northern areas has %een har"ful for the
potential touris" industry.
1hese factors of poor "ana)e"ent ha'e placed Pa7istan in an undesira%le situation
do"estically and internationally. 1he socio6econo"ic situation re"ains )loo"y as the
$GP )rowth rate is one of the lowest in South Asia at 2.2 percent= trade deficit is
esti"ated a%out R1( %illion= inflation rate continues to %e in dou%le di)its at 1# percent=
population %elow po'erty line is alar"in)ly around 3# percent= and une"ploy"ent is at
1# percent.
Also= it does not enMoy a fa'ora%le position a"on) the co"ity of nations. It is ran7ed
123rd out of 138 countries in $lo%al 2o"petiti'e Inde@F it is at 13th a"on) 182 in
-u"an de'elop"ent Inde@ %y 3!GPF and it occupies the critical position of 12th in
Failed States Inde@ 2911 issued %y Forei)n Policy <a)a&ine.
1he country has %een econo"ically dependent on forei)n aid and de%t= which has
ad'ersely affected her standin) in international co""unity. -owe'er= despite Pa7istanYs
crucial role in westYs )eostrate)ic fra"ewor7 and war on terror= the allies end up donatin)
s"all a"ounts of )rants which "a7e fractions of what could %e o%tained fro" e@ploitin)
own natural resources. 1he e@ternal de%ts and lia%ilities ha'e nearly dou%led fro" R 3.
%illion in year 2999= to R #8.# %illion in year 2911.
!e'ertheless= the worst i"pact so far is the ener)y crises in Pa7istan. 1here is serious
shortfall of electricity= )as and oil. 4lectricity de"and e@ceeds supply and :load
sheddin); is a co""on pheno"enon. 1he shortfall of electricity reaches at 9996#999
<A which %adly affected industry= e'entually leadin) to decreased e@ports and
di"inished econo"ic acti'ity.
1hese ad'erse i"plications= of the e@tre"ely poor "ana)e"ent of resources= on the
econo"y and society in the country= warrant a serious approach and co"prehensi'e
strate)y to re'erse the trend. 1he pra)"atic approach and policy direction can help the
country to %e a%le to rely on its own resources instead of dependency.
Pa7istani leadership "ust focus on e@ploration of natural resources and their scientific
"ana)e"ent. Properly "ana)ed natural resources can %eco"e instru"ental in national
inco"e and its )rowth. 4@tensi'e )eolo)ical sur'ey is re>uired to disco'er the resource
potential= plannin) and 'ision is needed to e@plore the pro'ed %ut untapped resources and
effecti'e strate)y is essential to fully e@ploit the resources under use.
In order to ta7e "a@i"u" %enefits fro" natural resources there is the need of technical
education of people in'ol'ed in resource e@ploitation and "ana)e"ent. 1he technical
education ensures that there is "ini"u" wasta)e of the resources. -ence= such education
should %e "ade co"pulsory for the people in concerned areas of acti'ity.
On the other hand= the politicians= policy "a7ers and all the sta7e holders "ust adopt a
rational approach not to politici&e natural resources. It should %e prioriti&ed as the 'ital
national interest and dealt with as such. 1he contro'ersies on the "ana)e"ent of water
and "ineral resources "ust %e resol'ed pra)"atically for %est interest of the nation.
Kast %ut not the least= worsened law and order situation in Pa7istan= which has led to the
lac7 of in'est"ent= "ust %e chec7ed. 1he pri'ate fir"s en)a)ed in resource e@ploration
"ust %e protected %y the state. 4nsurin) the security= would attract in'est"ent in the
respecti'e areas which would su%se>uently )uarantee the inflow of capital in the national
econo"y and the resource potential could %e fully e@ploited.
It needs not to %e e"phasised that Pa7istan is not poor %ut poor "ana)e"ent of its natural
resources has "ade it so. 1he enor"ous natural resources of all 7inds li7e ener)y=
"inerals= a)riculture= and hu"an could ha'e "ade this country a wealthy econo"y.
Instead= there %een %lea7 picture of econo"y and undesira%le i"a)e outside due to the
chronic flaws in 'ision and policies. 1hus= the dauntin) challen)e of poor "ana)e"ent of
natural resources direly needs to %e addressed not only to o'erco"e the perils caused due
to it %ut also to achie'e econo"ic self sufficiency and prosperity of the nation. By
surpassin) this challen)e= Pa7istan is destined to ha'e e"inence place in the world as a
sta%le= )rowin) and prosperous nation.