Regional Security

Education Program
Naval Postgraduate School
In support of Pacific Partnership 2008
What is RSEP?
Direct response to CNOs request for new initiatives to
prepare operating forces for regional security
missions and threats
Outcome of USS Cole investigation
NPS initiative with COMTHIRDFLT support
Then ADM Thomas Fargo directed NPS to fast-track RSEP
Face-to-face graduate education with regional and
subject-matter experts
RSEP = Lectures, Q & A, and debate
RSEP Missions and Objectives
Enhance situational awareness through graduate
education on regional threats with historical
perspectives and views on current issues
Strategic focus to prepare CVBGs, ARGs, SAGs and
Marines for regional security and cultural challenges
Education Objectives include diplomacy, coalition
building and achieving U.S. National Security Objectives
Preparation for Forward Engagement
and Security Cooperation
Team Members
Dr. Michael Malley
National Security Affairs Department, Naval Postgraduate
School
Teach Southeast Asian politics, history, and international
relations
Dr. Sophal Ear
National Security Affairs Department, Naval Postgraduate
School
Teach Southeast Asian politics and political economy,
stabilization and reconstruction
Southeast Asia: History,
Politics, and Culture
Dr. Michael Malley and Dr. Sophal Ear
Regional Security Education Program
Department of National Security Affairs
Naval Postgraduate School
Pacific Partnership, May 2008
Outline
Geography
People and Cultures
History
Politics
Foreign Policy
Food/Rice Crisis
Terrorism
Religious Diversity
Mainly Buddhist mainland
Burma, Thailand, Cambodia,
Laos, Vietnam
Mainly Muslim islands
Brunei
Indonesia: small Christian and
Hindu minorities
Malaysia: small Hindu and
large Christian minorities
Mainly Catholic
Philippines and East Timor
Historical Background
Mainland
Modern countries emerged
from old kingdoms
Colonialism reshaped these
countries
Thailand (Siam) was not
colonized
Islands
Modern countries are colonial
creations
Colonialism created
Singapore, Malaysia,
Indonesia, and the
Philippines
Colonial Era: 1500s to 1950s
1500s & 1600s: Europeans came to Southeast Asia to
find spices and a route to China
1700s: Dutch begin to push Portugal out, establish
control over Indies (modern-day Indonesia)
1800s: mad dash to control Southeast Asia
British took control of Burma, Malaya, Singapore
French took Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Americans took the Philippines from Spain and the Filipinos
Thailand: escaped colonialism, but fell under heavy British and
French influence
Impact of Colonialism
Economic
Transformed economies, and integrated them into
the world economy
Colonies produced rice, rubber, sugar, tobacco,
coffee, and tin for world markets
Social
Large numbers of immigrants came from China and
India to find work
Political
Exposure to foreign ideas + resistance to colonialism
growth of nationalism
From Empire to Revolution: The
Impact of World War II
Japan invaded and occupied most of Southeast Asia
Europeans and US defeated in less than one year
Lesson to Southeast Asian nationalists: Asians can
defeat whites/Europeans
Opportunity for Southeast Asians: many could fill
positions left by European defeat
After the War: Europeans too weak to overcome
nationalist movements
Independence achieved in 1940s and 1950s
Vietnam fought until 1970s for unification
Post-independence Struggles
Most countries faced internal conflict and
insurgency
Malaysia: The Emergency vs. communism
Burma: ethnic rebellions
Indonesia: Islamic militants, regional rebels,
powerful communist movement
Philippines: rural revolt, strong communist
movement
Vietnam: divided country
Division in Southeast Asia
during the 1960s and 1970s
Anticommunist governments gained control of many
countries
Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines
Formed Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Pursued economic growth through trade
Result: Peace and rapid economic growth, but little democracy
Mainland: communist and socialist ideals led them to
fight US and turn away from global economy
Decades of war left these countries much poorer
From Growth to Crisis: 1980s-
1990s
Following economic reform in 1980s, many countries
enjoyed rapid growth and rising living standards
Philippine exception: domestic political turmoil led to
economic crisis
Vietnam began to replace communism with capitalism
Late 1990s, major economic crisis hit most countries
in Southeast Asia
Falling demand for Southeast Asian goods
Speculative bubble
Today, Southeast Asian economies have recovered, but
struggle with competition from China
Contemporary Politics
Few democracies
Only Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand choose
their governments through (mostly) free and fair
elections
Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia are pseudo-
democracies
Brunei: monarchy
Burma: military junta
Vietnam, Laos: communist regimes
US Partners in Southeast Asia
Thailand and the Philippines
US allies since early 1950s
major non-NATO allies since 2003
Strong partners in GWOT
Singapore:
strategic partner and strong supporter of GWOT, major trade
and investment partner
Malaysia and Indonesia
Public often opposes US policies, especially wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan
Govts support key policies, e.g., GWOT and regional security
Chinas Charm Offensive
Early 1990s: China took an aggressive approach
toward Southeast Asia
Seized territory in South China Sea
Southeast Asian countries strengthened defense ties with US,
e.g., Changi naval base in Singapore
Since late 1990s, China has played nicely
No more territorial expansion in South China Sea
Economic cooperation with SE Asia
Support for ASEAN and multilateral diplomacy
Most SE Asian countries aim to avoid moving too close to
either China or the US
US Interests in Southeast Asia
Main goal: promote regional peace and stability
Contemporary Challenges
Rice Crisis: threats to prosperity and stability
Terrorism: threat to security and stability
Food/Rice Crisis
In case you havent heard
Aside from Cyclone
Nargis hitting
Myanmar (Burma),
and the 7.9
earthquake in China
1) There is a
catastrophic food
crisis, the likes of
which has not been
seen since 1973/4
2) In addition, there is
routine hunger.
Whats happening to prices?
Currently US$1000
Drivers of Growth in Prices
BLUF: Its Supply and Demand
Increase in meat consumption (Per capita
consumption has more than doubled in last 50
years and it takes 8, 5, and 3 lbs grain to
produce 1 lb of beef, pork, and chicken.)
Formerly self-sufficient countries now importing
food.
Weather (Australia, Bangladesh, and Myanmar)
Speculation (local hoarding as well as
speculation in the commodities super cycle.)
Philippines self-sufficiency in food
production, including rice, drops steadily
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
$ B
Balance of food trade in the Philippines, 1980-2006
Source: WTO online database
1980 (1.41)
1995 (-0.14)
2006 (-0.49)
Rice plantation areas have shrunk in the
Philippines
236,615
682,873
359,246
-86,606
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1960-1971 1971-1980 1980-1991 1991-2002
Area planted/harvested across decades (in hectares)
Source: 2002 Census of Agriculture, NSO
and could possibly grow more
in the near future
16
18
19
21
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
' 07 ' 08 ' 09 ' 10
22
24
25
27
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
' 07 ' 08 ' 09 ' 10
Estimated % share of imported rice on domestic consumption, 2007-2010
Projection 1 Projection 2
Projection by Prof. Ted Mendoza of UPLB
Consumption: 118.67 kg/person Consumption: 128 kg/person
Worldwide Governmental
Responses
Emergency imports
Banning/freezing exports of
rice/food
Food subsidies & tariffs
President Bush Orders $200
Million in Food Aid
Malaysia proposed bartering
palm oil for rice
Japan sits on 2.25 mil.
Japan will re-export 220,000
tons to Philippines
Long-term pressure faced by govts
Terrorism and Political
Violence in Southeast Asia
In case you havent heard
Good News:
Major terrorist network in Southeast Asia has been
seriously disrupted
On Sunday, the State Dept lifted 7-year old travel
warning for Indonesia
Bad News
Terrorism and insurgency remain significant
Southern Philippines remains a major trouble spot
Several groups involved, many near Cotabato
Dangers in the Philippines
Several major insurgent
groups
Muslim groups in the
South
Largest are separatist
movements
Smaller terrorist groups
Cotabato
Insurgency and Terrorism
MNLF & MILF
40-year old insurgency, 1000s of
members each
Seek autonomy, not independenc
Peace talks breaking down
Some MILF commanders shelter
terrorists
ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group)
Linked to al-Qaeda
Hundreds of members
Main focus of US CT operations in RP
Southern Mindanao
Recent Developments
Emergence of new, small, criminal groups
Increase in bombings in Mindanao
Breakdown of peace talks with MILF
Malaysian peacekeepers begin to depart this month
New links forged between elements of ASG and MNLF
New Peoples Army
Communist; 7,000+ members
Active in 69 out of 81 provinces
Active near Cotabato and in Samar
40 years, 40,000 dead
On US list of terrorist groups
Increasing number of attacks in 2008, aim to raise
money
Mainly attack govt forces and officials, and foreign
companies
Implications for You
Your Own Security
Threats are real, but not imminent
But situation is uncertain due to recent changes
Patient care
In recent years, widespread fighting has displaced
hundreds of thousands of people
Travel may be dangerous because bus companies
are common target of extortionist bombs
They live with the threat of violence
Questions?