ANSWER KEY

Extra Probability ProblemsChallenging!

(OPTONA!"#st $or $#n!%
&' n a game o$ (o)er* +hat is the (robability that a ,-.ar/ han/ +ill .ontain (a% a straight
($i0e .ar/s in #nbro)en n#meri.al se1#en.e%* (b% $o#r or a )in/* an/ (.% a $#ll ho#se (three
.ar/s o$ one 0al#e an/ t+o .ar/s o$ another 0al#e%2
(a% Thin) o$ this one as $ollo+s3 there are &4 (ossible straights sin.e a.es .an .o#nt
as the lo+est or highest .ar/ (a.e-thro#gh-$i0e* t+o-thro#gh-six*5''* ten-thro#gh-
a.e%' So* .al.#late the (robability o$ one (arti.#lar straight* an/ then m#lti(ly this
(robability by &4 (they6re all e1#ally li)ely%' We .an #se the 7.hoosing $#n.tion
here83
P(a.e-thro#gh-$i0e straight% 9
444:;< '
& = : < ,
<> <; ,4 ,& ,=
< < < < <
,=
,
<
&
<
&
<
&
<
&
<
&
= =

x x x x
x x x x
x x x x
&4x('444:;<%9 '44:;
4':;? .han.e
@OR* alternati0ely* yo# .an thin) abo#t this (roblem in terms o$ (robabilities'
Yo# .an m#lti(ly the (robabilities o$ getting3 a.e on the $irst /ra+ (<A,=%* t+o on
the se.on/ /ra+ (<A,&%* three on the thir/ /ra+ (<A,4%* $o#r on the $o#rth /ra+
(<A<;%* $i0e on the $i$th /ra+ (<A<>% as3
P(a.e* =*:*<*,% 9
<>
<
<;
<
,4
<
,&
<
,=
<
x x x x
BCTthis only gi0es yo# the (robability o$ this one (arti.#lar se1#en.e o$
/ra+ing the .ar/s' Yo# +o#l/ also get a straight i$ yo# /re+ these .ar/s in any
other or/er'
Dor exam(le* the (robability o$ /ra+ing $i0e* then $o#r* then three* then t+o* then
a.e is also3
P(,*<*:*=*a.e% 9
<>
<
<;
<
,4
<
,&
<
,=
<
x x x x
Eo+ many s#.h se1#en.es are there2 There are ,! +ays (, +ays to arrange ,
/istin.t .ar/s% yo# .o#l/ /ra+ these $i0e .ar/s'
P(a.e-thro#gh-$i0e straight% 9 444:;< ' ! ,
<>
<
<;
<
,4
<
,&
<
,=
<
= x x x x x
&4x('444:;<%9 '44:;
4':;? .han.e
ANSWER KEY
Note3 yo# may also see the (robability o$ a straight .al.#late/ as
%
<
( &4
,=
,
<
&
<
&
<
&
<
&
<
&

x
n this .ase* the (robability o$ a straight flush (a straight +here all the .ar/s are
o$ the same s#it% has been s#btra.te/ $rom the (robability o$ a straight* sin.e these
are .onsi/ere/ /istin.t han/s' The $o#r re(resents that there are only <4 straight
$l#shes (ossible (< s#its $or ea.h o$ the ten se1#en.es%'
(b% There are &: /istin.t sets o$ $o#r-o$-a-)in/ (all the a.es* all the )ings* all the
1#eens* et.'%' So* .al.#late the (robability o$ a (arti.#lar $o#r-o$-a-)in/ (say $o#r
)ings% an/ then m#lti(ly by &:' There are <> +ays to get $o#r )ings in a han/ o$
$i0e .ar/s3 yo# ha0e to get all $o#r )ings* b#t yo#r $i$th .ar/ .an be any o$ the
remaining <> .ar/s'
P($o#r-o$-a-)in/%9
= = =

<; ,4 ,& ,=
&=4 &:
& = : < ,
<> <; ,4 ,& ,=
<> &: <> &:
&:
,=
,
,=
,
<>
&
<
<
x x x
x
x x x x
x x x x
x x
x
'444=< or '
4=<? .han.e
(.% This is similar to the (roblem that yo# ha/ $or home+or)* +here as)e/ yo#
to .al.#late a $#ll ho#se o$ )ings an/ a.es' The (robability o$ any (arti.#lar
$#ll ho#se (as .al.#late/ in yo#r home+or)% +as3

=
,=
,
<
=
<
:
% =a.es an/ )ings : ( P
B#t ho+ many /istin.t $#ll ho#ses are there2 There are F&: .hoose =6 (ossible
(airs (a.es*)ingsG a.es* t+osG a.es* threesG )ings* t+os* et.'% an/ $or ea.h (air*
there are t+o (ossible arrangements3 yo# .o#l/ ha0e : )ings an/ = a.es or = a.es
an/ : )ings' There$ore* the n#mber o$ /istin.t $#ll ho#ses is3
&= &:
=
&= &:
= =
&:
=
x
x
x x = =

/istin.t $#ll ho#ses

ANSWER KEY
P($#ll ho#se% 9
= =

& = : < ,
<> <; ,4 ,& ,=
H < &= &:
&= &:
,=
,
<
=
<
:
x x x x
x x x x
x x x
x x
'44&<< or 4'&<?
.han.e
So* a $o#r-o$-a-)in/ beats a $#ll ho#se* +hi.h beats a straight (tho#gh straight $l#sh beats
them all!%
=' $ a $i0e-letter +or/ is $orme/ at ran/om (meaning that all se1#en.es o$ $i0e letters are
e1#ally li)ely%* +hat is the (robability that no letter o..#rs more than on.e2
Ienominator (+ith re(la.ement* sin.e letters .an re(eat%3
,
=H
N#merator (+itho#t re(la.ement* sin.e no letters .an re(eat%3
== =: =< =, =H
%! , =H (
! =H
x x x x =

!i)e the birth/ay (roblem* sin.e the /enominator has to be .al.#late/ .onsi/ering or/er*
so /oes the n#merator (there$ore* #se (erm#tations rather than .hoosing%'
P(no letter re(eats% 9
? HH
=H
== =: =< =, =H
=H
%! , =H (
! =H
, ,
= =
x x x x .han.e
:' An ele0ator .ontaining $i0e (eo(le .an sto( at any o$ se0en $loors' What is the (robability
that no t+o (eo(le get o$$ at the same $loor2 Ass#me that the o..#(ants a.t
in/e(en/ently an/ that all $loors are e1#ally li)ely $or ea.h o..#(ant'
Same logi. as (roblem (=%3
Ienominator (+ith re(la.ement* sin.e e0eryone .o#l/ get o$$ at the same $loor%3
,
J
N#merator (+itho#t re(la.ement%3 : < , H J x x x x
P(no t+o (eo(le on the same $loor% 9
=
,
J
: < , H J x x x x
&,? .han.e
<' A mon)ey at a ty(e+riter ty(es ea.h o$ the =H letters o$ the al(habet exa.tly on.e* the
or/er being ran/om' What is the (robability that the +or/ Eamlet a((ears some+here in
the string o$ letters2
ANSWER KEY
Eamlet (a H-letter string% .o#l/ a((ear in =& /i$$erent s(ots in the =H-letter string (e'g'*
s(ot &3 Eamlet.xs5G s(ot =3 .Eamlet.)s/5G s(ot :3 .)Eamlet/s$/5G et.' #( to3 s(ot =&3
1+ry#io(s/$gh")Kx.0bnEamlet
The remaining =4 letters .an be arrange/ in any se1#en.e (there are =4! +ays to arrange
the other =4 letters in the remaining =4 s(ots%'
There$ore* there are =&x=4! 9 =&! +ays to get Eamlet'
There are =H letters to $ill =H s(ots* so there are =H! total arrangements o$ the letters'
P(getting Eamlet% 9 444444&=H '
== =: =< =, =H
&
! =H
! =&
= =
x x x x
0ery small!
,' S#((ose that the (robability o$ li0ing to be ol/er than J4 is 4'H an/ the (robability o$
li0ing to be ol/er than >4 is 4'=' $ a (erson rea.hes her J4
th
birth/ay* +hat is the
(robability that she +ill .elebrate her >4
th
2
P(LJ4 years% 9 4'H4
P(L>4 years% 94'=4
Cse Bayes6 R#le3
P(L>4ALJ4% 9
? ::
? H4
? =4 @ ? &44
% J4 (
% >4 ( @ % >4 A J4 (
= =
>
> > >
P
P P
H' A hat .ontains a n#mber o$ .ar/s* +ith :4? +hite on both si/es* ,4? bla.) on one si/e
an/ +hite on the other* =4? bla.) on both si/es' The .ar/s are mixe/ #(* then a single
.ar/ is /ra+n at ran/om an/ (la.e/ on the table' $ the to( si/e is bla.)* +hat is the
.han.e that the other si/e is +hite2
? H ' ,,
% (
% ( % A (
% A ( = =
Black P
Mixed P Mixed Black P
Black Mixed P
',4 ',4
' , (',%M'= (&%