*

2008

(EFSF)

( 1
)

* 100

- 139 -

3 (Basel III)
3 2008

8% 10.5%

2007 8 2008
3
20
2009 9
10 20 (GDP)
12% 3%

800 (This Time Is Different: Eight

Centuries of Financial Folly)(2009)
- 140 -

2009

PIIGS

2012
3

2008

2009 9
2008

2
3

- 141 -

2008

1 GDP

2008

()
2009 10

1.
1990 2001
1 1 10
24.5% 6.5% 18%

Stability
- 142 -

and Growth Pact GDP 3%

GDP 60%

1 GDP
%

2007
-0.7
-0.3
0.2
-2.7
1.9
-3.1
-1.6
-6.5
0.1
-2.7

2008 2009
-2.1
-6.4
-1.3
-5.8
-0.1
-3.2
-3.3
-7.5
-4.5 -11.2
-3.6 -10.1
-2.7
-5.4
-9.8 -15.8
-7.3 -14.2
-5.0 -11.5

2010
-6.2
-4.1
-4.3
-7.1
-9.3
-9.8
-4.6
-10.6
-31.3
-10.3

2007
66.3
84.1
65.2
64.2
36.2
68.3
103.1
107.4
24.9
44.4

2008 2009 2010

70.1
79.8
85.4
89.3
95.9
96.2
66.7
74.4
83.2
68.2
79.0
82.3
40.1
53.8
61.0
71.6
83.0
93.3
105.8 115.5 118.4
113.0 129.3 144.9
44.3
65.2
94.9
54.8
69.6
79.9

European Commission, Eurostat Newsrelease Euroindicator, 1453 / 2011

21 October 2011, Provision of deficit and debt data for 2010.

- 143 -

2.

2009
2008-2009

GDP 2006 106%

2009 129%2009 2009
GDP 6.7% 12.7%

15.8% 2007
2,393 2010 3,294
()
1.
1990 2007 17
6.5%(Celtic Tiger)
2008

2010 3
6,500
2,200
2,060
- 144 -

2.
2007
0.1%2008 2009
7.3%
14.2%2010 9 3
450

2010
31.3% 9%

()

2009 3.6%
10.1%2010 9.8% 2011 3

8%

()
15
2008

18%
4,000

- 145 -

20%
2007
GDP 2007 2% 2008
-4.5%2009 2 -11.2%

()

2010 GDP 118.4%

144.9% 2011 7

8
2011 9 12 115
4.153%
2.959%

2011 7

()
1999
- 146 -

2011 10
160%

470

2,380
2,200
310
5,110
20%

()

2010 5
100

860

- 147 -

1995 2007 13
3

2010 9 10 1,300

2011 4

21

2011 7

()
2011

3,000 4,100

600
- 148 -

200

1,200
1,000 ( 1)
()
1.

(Dexia SA)
(European Banking Authority, EBA)

50%

2,040
2,870 4,190
1 2,720
2 1,760
2.

- 149 -

(credit crunch)
1 ()

600

800 2,000 3,000

International Monetary Fund (2011), World Economic and Financial surveys,

Global Financial Stability Report, Grappling with Crisis Legacies, September.

2010 5

(EFSF)

- 150 -

2010 5 2
5% 1,100 800
300 (IMF)

80 120

2010 290 5 200 9 90

2011 490 1 90 3 150 6 120
9 80 12 50
2012 240 3 100 6 60 9 60
12 20
2013 80 3 60 6 20
(EFSF)
2010 5 10
(EFSF)

7,500
9,600
1,100 850
780 4,400

4,400 600
1
4,400 special purpose
vehicle, SPV

- 151 -

AAA

2010 12 675
175 850
2011 5 780

17 2011 7 21
1,590 (2,290 )
1.2014
1,090

2.
2014
500
21%
3. 2,000
3,500
4. 4.5% 5.8%
3.5% 15
30 10
- 152 -

5. 30

6.

2011 9 15

3
10 12 11 9
12 7

2011 10 27

1,000

( 1.9 )

()
50%
(haircut) 7 21%
- 153 -

2035
2,000 1,000
300 (3,500
) GDP 160% 120%

2021
() 1
2010 5 7,500
4,400
1,500 2,500
2,750

4~5 1

20%

() 1,060
1,060 2012 6
- 154 -

9%

262 148

()
2009 12
A-BBB+

BBB+
1 A2
BB+

2011 10 20
3 AAA
AA+ 10
9 71.5 119

- 155 -

AAA

AAA

AAA

AAA

AA

AA

AA

AA-

BBB

BBB

BB

CC

2010 10 21 2011 10 20

()

9% 2011 7
5%

2009

(CDS)

20%

- 156 -

()

3,000

2011 6
550
2011 10
260

14
60
965

- 157 -

()
1.
(PIMCO)
(Mohamed El-Erian)

50%
1% 1.5%
6% 8%

2011 9

Aa3
2.
2011 9 23

(National Bank of
Greece), (EFG Eurobank Ergasias)
(Alpha Bank AE)(Piraeus Bank SA)
(Agricultural Bank of Greece)(Attica Bank SA
Caa2 B3(Emporiki Bank of Greece)
(General Bank of Greece) B3 B1
3.

(Dexia SA) 2011 10

- 158 -

10.3%
46 240

1,800
(
)
40

900

(WTO) 2011
6.5% 5.8% 2010 14.1%

WTO

2008

- 159 -

2012 3(Basel III)

2011 10
3
2008
(Basel Committee
on Banking Supervision, BCBS) 2010 12 16
3 2008

(macro-prudential)
(systemic risk)

(capital conservation buffer)

(countercyclical capital buffer)
2019 1 3

()(Tier 1 Capital)
(going-concern)
(Common Equity Tier 1)
(Additional Tier 1)

- 160 -

()
%

4.5
6.0
8.0

2.5

7.0

0~2.5

8.5

10.5

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International

Settlements (2011), Basel III: A global regulatory framework for
more resilient banks and banking systems.

1.
(common equity)
1 75%

14

2.
1
()
1 14
()
- 161 -

5
()(Tier 2 Capital)
(gone-concern)

8% 10.5%

()
2% 2015
4.5%
2.5% 7%
4
4

()

0%~25%

100%

>25%~50%

80%

>50%~75%

60%

>75%~100%

40%

>100%

0%

(2011)
11-23
- 162 -

()
4% 6%
2.5% 8.5%
()( 1 2 )
8%
2.5% 10.5%

(leverage ratio)
()

( 5)

2.5%
0%
- 163 -

5
( 2.5%)

()

4.5%~5.75%

100%

>5.75%~7.0%

80%

>7.0%~8.25%

60%

>8.25%~9.5%

40%

>9.5%

0%

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International

Settlements (2011), Basel III: A global regulatory framework for
more resilient banks and banking systems.

()

(
) 3%

2011 2013 1 2017

12 3%
- 164 -

2008

2008

800 (2009)

2008

(
1 )

- 165 -

3
3 2008

8% 10.5%

10

2011 6 ()
51.1 44.1
3
10 19

- 166 -

1. (2011)

11-23
2. (2011)
http://www.pwc.com/tw/zh/challenges/industry-trends/industry-trends-201
00728.jhtml
3. (2010)
123 130
4. (2011)(FSI)
Basel III
5. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International
Settlements (2011), Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more
resilient banks and banking systems.
6. European Commission, Eurostat Newsrelease Euroindicator, 1453/2011 21
October 2011, Provision of deficit and debt data for 2010.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-21102011-AP/EN/
2-21102011-AP-EN.PDF
7. International Monetary Fund (2011), World Economic and Financial
surveys, Global Financial Stability Report, Grappling with Crisis Legacies,
September.
8. BBC News (2011), http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15060862

- 167 -

- 168 -