2014 5 6

2014
,

GDP12.8 7.4%CPI
2.3%

3 17
1% 2%
3 1

2014 3
I

M2 12.1%
13.9%
3.01
2592

5.60 5612
3
7.18% 12 0.02

3 6.1521
0.9%

II

III

......................1

............................................1
........................................1
............................................2
..................................4
......................................5
......................................6

......................6

............................................7
........................................7
..................8
........................................8
...................................10
.....................................13
...........................................14
...........................................16

.....................17

...................................................17
.............................................26

.....................29

...............................................29
...............................................35

.....................46

...............................................46
...........................................48

IV


1 ......................................11
2 ..................15
3 ..............................19
4 ..................................38
5 ................................51

1 2014 ............................3
2 2014 ....................................4
3 2014 1-3 ..................5
4 2014 1-3 ....................6
5 2014 .........11
6 2013 .......................14
7 2014 ...18
8 2014 ...........................19
9 2014 ...............................22
10 2014 3 ..................24
11 ...................................30

1 ........................................13
2 ..............................21
3 ..........................................36

2014

2014 3 M2 116.1
12.1% M1 32.8 5.4%
M0 5.8 5.2%
242 1043
3 M2 1.5
2013 M2
15.7%
2014
M2 5.4
13%
3 27.5 8.3%
3721 4.22 0.14
1.8% 3.6%

3
112.2 11.5% 2.0

, 5.0 1.3
109.1 11.4% 2.4
4.7 1.4
5074 14.9% 423
109

3
49.4 11.4% 3.3
4030 36.2
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3.1 930 19
7.0 1.1
1

3 80.1
13.7% 3.5 2966 3
74.9 13.9% 3.0
2592
3
20.8 21.4% 9293
459 4500
2

338 3 20.4% 11 20%

53.9
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3061 1.8
3296 58.2% 6.5
1.2
1065

1 2014

2014

2013

13443

608

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8844

1617

7227

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4653

248

4405

1129

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181

69

-84

2
2008
2
2

3 8464
12.2% 695 14
324
47% 137
20%
3


2014 5.60
5612
2013
6.17
2 2014
:

2013

61654

27547

4453

5235

8244

6706

7573

617

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56042

30139

4253

7153

2802

5592

3846

975

53.8% 9.1

1 2 3 371 1016
2459 975
358

1.55
4

 4638 27.8% 5.0

3 7.18%
12 0.02 7.37%
12 0.23 6.28%
12 1.26 3
6.70% 12 0.17

3
8.35% 21.40% 12 4.12
2.72 70.25% 12
6.84
3 2014 1-3
%

(1.01.1] (1.11.3] (1.31.5] (1.52.0] 2.0

1

8.20

22.81 68.99

17.90

27.39

11.00

9.78

2.92

7.56

24.96 67.48

20.61

26.09

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2.60

8.35

21.40 70.25

18.81

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9.56

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3 3
0.25% 2.60% 12
0.07 0.62 3 3-6
5

 3.08% 3.20% 12
0.42 0.38
4 2014 1-3
%

3 3 6 6
3 3 6 6
3
1 3
1

6 1
6 1

12
12

0.21 2.41

3.43

3.48

3.54

2.68

2.82

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3.14

2.88 3.56

0.20 2.50

3.54

3.68

3.66

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3.08

3.13

3.46

3.10 3.08

0.25 2.60

3.68

3.63

3.85

2.72

3.08

3.20

3.35

3.30 3.16

2014
3 6.1521
552 0.90%
2014 1.37%
1.09%2005 2014 3
34.53%
30.23% 40.59%

2014

SLO

21

14 28
5250 8700
SLO 1000

3 14 3.8%28
4.0%

3 1400
3 400 6 500 9 500

2014

10

3400
0

 2014

2014 1000
500 500

3.74 15.6% 1.9

9

 1698 39.3%
2.08 6.0%
1.5 3
16.3%
2.4 17.7%
4.0

2014 3 15

2014 3 17
1% 2%
6.1521
6.0930 58 22 36
0.17%101 0.18%111

3
1 8.4607
100 5.9920 2013 0.49% 3.59%
2005 2014 3
18.36% 21.93%
10

 2014 3 19

5 2014

126553.4 689.1 1303.8 590.7 32.7 427.5

29.7

2.3

38.5

0.45

1.4

2270

1994 0.3%2007 0.5%2012 1%

2014 3

11

 2014 3 15 3
17 1% 2%
2% 3%

3 17 4 30
1.1% 1024 1.66% 2005
3 17 4 30
CNH 59
2014 161

250
2999
33.1%
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92.5%
7.5%
2011

12

1.65
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5613 5415.9
1.1 12
1930.9
278.2 2.5
1652.7 1.1

2014 2

13

6 2013

13.12

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10.17

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3789.7 3.9%
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14

 3
1672 492
115
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2003 6

2004
32 2408
1699 3 14

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850 2014

616
33

15

 1713
2600
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8863

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9.2 2002 6.2 5.6

2013 3723
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2007 12.6
2013 6.2
3.0 2007 3 2.6

4
16


QFII 40.7 RQFII
430 QDII 23.6

2014

2014
38.86474
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78.1%79.0%4.1
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17

62.2%

7 2014

2014

2013

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2013

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7 Shibor

18

 83.9% 15.0%
8 2014

2013

5533

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8878

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SLOSLF

3 2.48%
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31Shibor2.80%4.18%
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Shibor45.00%
3

Certificate of Deposits
CDs

19

2013 12
10

2014 3 25
687.7 55.8

Shibor Shibor

Shibor
Shibor

7.1
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20


8062155
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24529287
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201312

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
20141

20142

21

20143


2.121680

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30.912.3%
9 2014

()

2140

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22

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96%

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10 2014 3

2014 3 2013 3 2014 3 2013 3

89459

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100

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11056 21.2%
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3
420 90 89
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1385.0 / 1221.0 /3 1291.8

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AU9999 273.6
/ 238.9 /3 257.8 /
21.3 / 9.0% 255.2 /

3402 76.1% 87171 37.7%

93687 72.9% 3908
16.3% 20 37.3%
59 20.8%
25

2014 1 28

201429

3 21

50

200
200

26

QFII RQFII 3 19
,
QFII RQFII

A 20%
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150%

27

2013
100
AU99.99 100 / 10 /

28

21

2014 GDP
0.1%
ISM PMI
3 53.7 53.13 6.7%
3 2014
4133 1870
2013 GDP 0.4%
GDP 0.3%2014 3
102.5 2011 8
PMI 53.1 9 50
3 11.8%
HICP 0.5%

29

2013 GDP
1.5% 0.7%
2013 11 2014 3
37.5 2011 9
3 1.4 21 1
3 CPI 1.3% 5 3
3.6%
11

2013

2013

2013

GDP

1.1

2.5

2013

9 10 11 12

4.1

2014
1

2 3

2.6

0.1

7.9

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.2

7.0

6.7

6.6

6.7

6.7

CPI%

1.6

2.0

1.5

1.1

1.4

1.8

2.0

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.1

1.5

DJ 13861 14054 14579 14840 15116 14910 15500 14810 15192 15237 16086 16577 15699 16322 16458
GDP

-0.2

%
%
HICP
%

0.3

0.1

0.2

12.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

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11.9

11.9

11.8

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1.8

1.7

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1.6

1.6

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.8

0.8

3087

3109

EURO STOXX 502703 2634 2624 2712

GDP

4.5

2770

2603 2768

4.1

2721 2893 3068

0.9

0.7

0.5

3014 3149 3162

0.7

4.2

4.3

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4.1

3.9

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CPI%

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0.0

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.2

1.3

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1.3

225 11139 11559 12398 13861 13775 13677 13668 13389 14456 14328 15662 16291 14915 14841 14828

2014 1

30

3 31
1.38 /1.67 / 103.20 /
0.2%0.6% 2.0%

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Libor Euribor
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3 31 10 2.72%
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2
31

 10 300 99 122

3
31 STOXX50 16458
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60-70
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32

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15 2 26 4 2 100
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425 12% 450 8%7
550 10%1 28
25 8.00%3 3 5.5%
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5.0% 5.5%

2014

WTO

2013
1%
33

2014 4 1 5%
8%

2014 4
IMF 2014 0.1 3.6%
2.8% 0.1
1.2% 0.3 1.4%
0.2 4.9%
34


2014
,

GDP12.8 7.4% 0.3

CPI 2.3% 0.1
167.4 252.8

8155 9.8%
7.2% 3224 12.3%
10.1%
50.7% 0.4
6.2 12% 10.9%
0.1 5.4
11.8% 8528 12.8%

6.8 17.6%
3.3 2.0
16.3% 1.7 4.4
20.9% 64.8% 1.5
35


16.4%20.2% 19.1%
25.8%14.7% 19.6%

9658.8 1% 4913.1
3.4% 4745.7 1.6% 167.4
253

8.1%
9.4%

315.5 5.5%
137 1875
199
400

100

300

80

200

60

100
40
0
20
-100
-200
-300

,()
,%()
,%()

-20

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-400
2009.07 2009.11 2010.03 2010.07 2010.11 2011.03 2011.07 2011.11 2012.03 2012.07 2012.11 2013.03 2013.07 2013.11 2014.03

3
36

7776 3.5% 57587

7.3% 62850 7.8%
GDP 6.1%44.9% 49%
1.1
11 2014
0.15% 0.56%
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2%

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12942.4 10.1%
12238.5 9.4%
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97.1% 0.1
5000

55.3% 2.8
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67% 1.1

37

HP Kalman

GDP
U

GDP

38

CPI
2.3% 0.6 2.5%2.0%
2.4% CPI
3.5% 2.0 CPI
1.2 1.7% 0.1
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1.9%
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0.1
PPI
39

 2.0% 0.6
1.6%2.0% 2.3% 0.3% PPI
0.1 2.5% PPI 1.9
2.1%
0.6 CGPI 2.0%
1.5 1.2%
0.6%

4.2%
1.4%
11.2% 14.7% 1.6% 3.4%
5.0% 3.5

GDP GDP
GDP GDP 0.4%
1.3 1.3
3 20

3 25

40

35025.7 9.3%
2.4 30432.5
12.6% 0.5
4593.3 403.9
30187.8
10.2% 4837.9 4.4%
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26.4%17.7%14.2%14%

4.08% 0.03
102

1.11
0.01

41


52.8%

2014 72
404 1183
282 1258
313
2013 8632
17.1%

5267 18.2%
61% 6766 25.1%
78.4%

10.1% 41 33

32.3%29.8%
28.2%26.7%
8.58
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5133.7 0.2% 105.5
7.4%
42

1.

2014 3 70
69 12
56 12 9
68 12 1
42 12 22

2 3.8% 1-2 3.7

17.3% 13263
5.2% 1-2 1.5
26.3%
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15339 16.8% 1-2 2.5

3 10530
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43

 1.9 4.9%
2%
3
15.4 18.8%
0.3 20.6%
0.4 9.5
20.2% 0.8 2.8
19.3% 3.5
1.1 7.6% 2.2
7971 26.4%
1.7
2014
700 470
3 7783 26.7%
8.4
3
669 76 316
170
2.

44

2012
2012
50 19
7.1 4000
2100 2300
63%2013
3700
1130

2011
2012
2013

45

46

GDP
2014
40.6% 1.8 49.9%
0.2
4
2013 3% 2014 3.6% 2015 3.9%

47

CPI
2014
63.9% 8.3 55.8%

5.8

PPI
PPI

48

49

Shibor
LPR

50

1970-1980
1990

IS-LM

51

1980

52

53

54