Twitter: See The Full Analysis For Twitter On Trefis

Twitter
ANALYSIS for NYSE : TWTR MAY 1, 2014

$
27.88
$19.7 B MKT CAP
Trefis Estimate
$
$22.2 B MKT CAP
Market Price
See the Full Analysis for Twitter on Trefis
CORPORATE SNAPSHOT
Twitter is an online platform for self-expression and real-time conversation.
The updates and messages posted by users are termed as 'tweets,' and are
limited to 140 characters. This essentially enables a quick exchange of
information, while maintaining the conciseness and relevance of the
messages. The company had close to 218 million average monthly active users
during the second quarter of 2013.
Twitter earns revenue through advertising and data licensing, with the
advertising business accounting for a majority of its revenues. The company
charges advertisers and marketers for promoting their tweets and Twitter
accounts. Additionally, it charges data re-sellers for access to user tweets.
Ninety-four out of top 100 ad age advertisers used Twitter's services in 2013.
VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
United States Advertising constitutes 50% of the Trefis price estimate for
Twitter's stock.
1.
International Advertising constitutes 36% of the Trefis price estimate for
Twitter's stock.
2.
See the Interactive Valuation Breakdown on Trefis
Our share price estimate and the overall company value is derived by
summing-up the values of individual divisions/businesses in a sum-of-the-
parts analysis. The value of each division is calculated using a discounted cash
flow (DCF) methodology.
We forecast fundamental drivers like pricing, market share, and profit
margins for different businesses in estimating the divisions value within the
UNI TED STATES
ADVERTI SI NG
4
Twitter's U.S. Ad Revenue Per 1,000
Timeline Views
5
Number of Timeline Views Per U.S.
Monthly Active user
7
Twitter's U.S. Average Monthly Active
Users
8 Twitter's Gross Margin
I NTERNATI ONAL
ADVERTI SI NG
10
International Ad Revenue Per 1,000
Timeline Views
11
International Average Monthly Active
Users
13
Number of Timeline Views Per
International Monthly Active user
DATA LI CENSI NG
16 Twitter's Data Licensing Revenue
APPENDI CES
19 Summary P&L for Twitter
20
Detailed United States Advertising
P&L
21
Detailed International Advertising
P&L
22 Detailed Data Licensing P&L
DCF framework. The analysis below primarily focuses on those important
forecasts that drive our share price and value estimate.
Our complete analysis, including sources of historical data, underlying
equations and additional discussion are available on www.trefis.com.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below we highlight key drivers of Twitter's value that present opportunities
for upside or downside to its current Trefis price estimate.
United States Advertising
U.S. Average Monthly Active Users: We currently forecast this figure to
increase from 51 million in 2013 to 106 million by the end of our forecast
period. However, there could be an upside of about 20% if this figure
was to reach 150 million instead.
U.S. Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views: We currently forecast this

metric to increase from $2.68 in 2013 to $6.12 by the end of our forecast
period. However, there could be a downside of about 10% to 15% if this
figure was to increase to only $4.50. On the other hand, if Twitter's ad
monetization grows much faster than we forecast driven by higher
inventory sell through and increased pricing, and the U.S. ad revenue per
1,000 timeline views reaches close to $7.50, there could be 10% upside to
our price estimate.
International Advertising
International Average Monthly Active Users: We currently forecast this
figure to increase from 173 million in 2013 to 422 million by the end of
our forecast period. However, there could be an upside of about 10% if
this figure was to reach 530 million instead. There is some likelihood of
this outcome given the growing smartphone usage across the globe and
increasing adoption of Twitter by celebrities and political leaders.
International Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views: We currently

forecast this metric to increase from $0.36 in 2013 to $1.59 by the end of
our forecast period. However, there could be a downside of about 10% to
15% if this figure was to increase to only $1.20. On the other hand, if
Twitter's ad monetization grows much faster than we forecast driven by
higher inventory sell through and increased pricing, and the international
ad revenue per 1,000 timeline views reaches close to $1.85, there could be
10% upside to our price estimate
SOURCES OF VALUE
We believe that the United States Advertising business is the primary source
of value for Twitter because:
Significantly Higher Ad Monetization Compared To International Business
The U.S. accounted for approximately 74% of Twitter's revenues in 2013.
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ANALYSIS for TWITTER

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Although the international business is growing, the monetization level
remains much higher for the U.S.
Advertising revenue per 1,000 timeline views stood at an estimated $2.68
for the U.S. in 2013, approximately 7.5 times the corresponding figure for the
international segment. We notice a similar discrepancy for Facebook as well,
which is a much more mature and profitable company. As there are structural
reasons for this disparity, ad monetization in the U.S. may remain
significantly higher for the foreseeable future. The average ad pricing in
international markets is lower due to lack of purchasing power. In addition to
this, the online advertising hasn't picked up in many of the emerging markets
as much as it has in the U.S.
KEY TRENDS
Growing Popularity Of Social Networking Platforms
With the proliferation of smartphones, tablets and laptops, mobile
computing, and in turn the Internet, are now ubiquitous. Users can
communicate within the range of any wireless LAN or cell phone tower. And
for this, these devices allow users to employ a wide range of social media,
each optimized to a specific purpose.
Facebook's monthly active user base has increased from about 100
million in 2008 to close to 1.2 billion currently. The figure for LinkedIn also
jumped substantially in 2013. Twitter is not behind either, and witnessed its
total monthly active users grow by 73% in 2012 and 40% in 2013.
Growing Online And Mobile advertising
The online advertising market is growing, and mobile is going to be the
forefront of this growth in the coming years. Google has long dominated this
market but Facebook, LinkedIn, and now Twitter, are beginning to tap the
opportunity.
According to Twitter, the global online advertising market (excluding
mobile) is expected to grow from $91.1 billion in 2012 to $124.7 billion in 2017,
reflecting a compounded annual growth rate of 6.5%. During the same
period, global mobile advertising market is projected to increase from $10
billion to $52.2 billion, which suggests that the proportion of mobile in the
overall online advertising market will increase rapidly. This plays right into
Twitter's hands as the company earns more than 75% of its revenues from
mobile platform.
Real-time Interaction Gaining Traction
Due to increasing Internet access and usage of mobile devices, users are
increasingly getting involved in real-time interactions online. And this plays
to Twitter's strengths. A lot of events, news and incidences are reported on
Twitter much before they are reported by traditional news sources. The
company has stated that the user engagement on Twitter peaks during live
events.
See the Full Analysis for Twitter on Trefis
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United States Advertising

The United States Advertising division constitutes 49.6% of our $27.88 price estimate for this stock, based on our sum of
the parts analysis.The most important drivers for the United States Advertising business are:
Twitter's U.S. Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views
Number of Timeline Views Per U.S. Monthly Active user
Twitter's U.S. Average Monthly Active Users
Twitter's Gross Margin

TWITTER'S U.S. AD REVENUE PER 1,000 TIMELINE VIEWS

Twitter's U.S. Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views represents average advertising revenue earned by Twitter per 1,000
timeline views. Timeline views are defined as the total number of timelines requested when registered users visit Twitter,
refresh a timeline or view search results while logged in. A timeline is a long stream that appears on screen showing all
tweets from those who a user chooses to follow.
Twitter earns ad revenues through promoted tweets, promoted accounts and promoted trends.

Twitter's U.S. Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views increased from $0.32 in 2010 to $2.68 in 2013 as Twitter's advertising
business picked up. Given that the company is investing significantly in marketing, and has already developed rapport
with major brands and advertisers, we expect the figure to increase significantly over the next few years.

Forecast Rationale
Supporting:
ATTRACTIVE RETURN ON INVESTMENT WILL DRAW ADVERTISERS 94 out of top 100 ad age advertisers marketed
themselves on Twitter in 2013. These advertisers are getting attractive return on investment as they can leverage
Twitter's data to effectively target their ads to the relevant audience. The benefit is not just limited to the initial
targeting. Due to 'retweet' feature and the viral nature of the platform, these ads or promoted tweets tend to get
Twitter's U.S. Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views ($ per 1,000)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
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distributed to a much larger audience for no additional cost. Twitter's users follow various accounts and users which
reflects their interests, thus forming what the company calls as 'interest graph'. This graph is updated real-time, thus
adding more dynamism to ad targeting for advertisers. The advertisers can engage with users in relevant contexts,
which results in potential sales. For instance, if there is a conversation between two users which is somewhat related
to a product or service, the seller of that product or service can chime in creatively, thus grabbing the users' attention.
TWITTER CARDS AND TWITTER AMPLIFY PROGRAM WILL HELP Twitter's platform partners use Twitter Cards to
embed images, videos and other interactive media experience into their tweets, thus creating a much more rich and
engaging experience. These Twitter Cards can be used to create more effective advertisements, which will help
Twitter command a higher pricing. We believe that this will not have any significant impact on user experience as
these cards look just like any other tweets, only more visually appealing. Twitter Amplify program allows content
companies to distribute videos on Twitter's platform, with a short advertisement embedded. The revenues from this
advertisement are shared between Twitter and the content partner. The company has built several such partnerships
in the recent quarters. Some of the notable content partners include NFL, Viacom, Fox, Bloomberg TV, MLB.com
and Discovery.
PARTNERSHIP WITH NIELSEN COULD DRAW MORE MARKETERS Twitter is increasingly becoming a part of TV
viewing experience as users tend to engage in conversations about TV shows while they are watching them. To
leverage this trend, Twitter has partnered with Nielsen to formulate Nielsen-Twitter TV ratings, a metric which will
measure the social engagement around TV viewing. If this metric is widely adopted, it will encourage content
partners to put more content on twitter to drive engagement. This will open up more revenue opportunities in form
of promoted tweets and Twitter Amplify program.
GROWTH IN ONLINE AND MOBILE ADVERTISING The online advertising market is growing, and mobile is going to be
the forefront of this growth in the coming years. Google has long dominated this market but Facebook, LinkedIn,
and now Twitter, have jumped on to the bandwagon. According to Twitter, the global online advertising market
(excluding mobile) is expected to grow from $91.1 billion in 2012 to $124.7 billion in 2017, reflecting a compounded
annual growth rate of 6.5%. During the same period, global mobile advertising market is projected to increase from
$10 billion to $52.2 billion, which suggests that the proportion of mobile in the overall online advertising market will
increase rapidly. This plays right into Twitter's hands as the company earns more than 70% of its revenues from
mobile platform.

Mitigating:
COMPETITION FROM OTHER SOCIAL NETWORK PLATFORMS FOR AD DOLLARS Twitter competes with other social
networking platforms and chat applications for ad dollars. These competitors include Facebook, Google, Microsoft
and LinkedIn. Among these, Facebook and LinkedIn have registered strong ad revenue growth. Twitter's
monetization growth can be adversely affected if Facebook or other Internet companies become the preferred choice
for advertisers.
RISK OF OVERSUPPLY OF INVENTORY IN THE NEAR TERM Twitter runs the risk of oversupply of ad inventory if its
sales teams are not able to catch up with the timeline views growth. The company needs to sell this ever increasing ad
inventory to maintain and grow its monetization levels.
Sources for historical data and explanations can be found on the Trefis.com website (link)

NUMBER OF TIMELINE VIEWS PER U.S. MONTHLY ACTIVE USER

This figure represents the average number of timeline views per monthly active user for a given year. Timeline views are
defined as the total number of timelines requested when registered users visit Twitter, refresh a timeline or view search
results while logged in. A timeline is a long stream that appears on screen showing all tweets from those which a user
chooses to follow.
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Number of Timeline Views Per U.S. Monthly Active user increased from an estimated 1,694 in 2010 to 3,221 in 2013.
Going forward, we expect this figure to continue to increase but at a slower pace as user engagement grows.

Forecast Rationale
Supporting:
TWITTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING A WEB UTILITY Twitter continues to attract individuals, corporations, celebrities
and world leaders. The ability to quickly transmit information to a relevant audience is something that makes the
platform unique. We believe the more users will realize this unique selling proposition, and join the platform.
Marketers are able to engage in direct conversations with their potential customers, promote their service and brand
more effectively, and stay abreast with latest industry developments.
RICH MEDIA EXPERIENCE WILL IMPROVE USER ENGAGEMENT Twitter Cards is a relatively new feature that lets
customers include images and videos in their tweets. A big part of Facebook's success can be attributed to the ability
of users to share pictures and videos. The company even acquired photo sharing service Instagram to improve user
experience. This is a strong example of how interactive and rich media can increase user engagement. Twitter cards
will help increase the number of timeline views per user.
LIVE EVENTS, NEWS AND SHOWS WILL ENCOURAGE MORE INTERACTION Twitter has mentioned that the user
engagement significantly increases during certain live events, shows and breaking news. As this trend catches on, we
expect users to interact more and exchange views and opinions, thus increasing the the number of timelines views per
user. The users are increasingly turning to Twitter to follow news and politics, which will require constant timeline
refresh to stay abreast with latest updates. According to a survey, about 50% of the U.S. adult Twitter users stated that
they get their news through the platform.

Mitigating:
NEW USERS WILL NOT BE AS TECH SAVVY AS EARLY ADOPTERS As is the case with any technology, the early adopters
are the heaviest users. Therefore, Twitter's new users will be relatively less engaged with the service, which can put
pressure on the growth of number of timeline views per monthly active user.
Number of Timeline Views Per U.S. Monthly Active user (K)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
0. 0
0. 5
1. 0
1. 5
2. 0
2. 5
3. 0
3. 5
4. 0
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TWITTER'S U.S. AVERAGE MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS

This figure represents average monthly active users during a given year in the U.S. These are the users who logged in and
accessed Twitter in the 30-day period ending on the date of measurement.

Twitter's U.S. Average Monthly Active Users jumped from an estimated 12.8 million in 2010 to 51 million in 2013 driven
by increased adoption of the service and the proliferation of smartphones. At the end of 2013, roughly 16.5% of the U.S.
population was on Twitter. We expect the number of users to continue to grow rapidly.

Forecast Rationale
Supporting:
USERS WILL INCREASINGLY RECOGNIZE TWITTER'S VALUE Twitter allows its users to tweet messages which are
limited to 140 characters. As a result, the messages tend to be concise and relevant, thus eliminating some noise and
making content sharing more enjoyable. As tweets are primarily public, users can follow celebrities, political leaders,
think tanks, companies, brands and other content of their choice. Users tend to tweet during live events and as a
result, a lot of news items are tweeted real-time, before they are actually reported through traditional news sources
such as TV. Fast flow of critical information will draw more users going forward.
INTEGRATION WITH THIRD-PARTY SITES The public nature of Twitter's platform creates a wide reach. A plethora of
media and content companies distribute tweets to complement their content by making it more timely and relevant.
Twitter mentioned in its S1 filing that its tweets have appeared on over a million third-party
websites. Furthermore, in Q2 2013, there were roughly 30 billion online impressions of tweets on web properties other
than its own. Growing distribution and visibility will help Twitter gain more users.
GROWING USAGE OF SMARTPHONES AND OTHER MOBILE DEVICES Smartphone sales have picked up significantly in
the U.S. over the past few years, thanks to the innovation from Apple, Google and Samsung and the subsidies offered
by carriers such as AT&T and Verizon. In addition, the Internet usage is gradually shifting to mobile, which has
encouraged brands and companies to focus on bringing their services to this platform. This trend plays right into
Twitter's hands as more than 75% of its monthly active users access the service from mobile devices, and over 70% of
Twitter's U.S. Average Monthly Active Users (Mil)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
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its advertising revenues come from mobile. Around mid 2013, approximately 60% of the U.S. mobile users owned a
smartphone, which suggests that there is still a lot of upside for smartphone penetration. This will directly impact
Twitter's user base growth.
VALUE PROPOSITION TO MARKETERS Many Twitter users are marketers who want to promote their products and
services. Twitter, with its promoted tweets and promoted accounts services, offers a unique platform for these
marketers to engage with relevant audience. Even without the use of these premium services, marketers can gain a
wide reach and visibility because of the viral nature of the platform. We believe that Twitter can be a valuable source
of marketing for established companies as well as start-ups, and will continue to attract such marketers.

Mitigating:
COMPETITION FROM OTHER SOCIAL NETWORKING PLATFORMS Twitter competes with other social networking
platforms and chat applications for user engagement. These competitors include Facebook, Google, Microsoft and
LinkedIn. Among these, Facebook and LinkedIn have registered strong growth in terms of user base as well as user
engagement. Twitter's user base growth can be adversely affected if Facebook or other Internet companies become
the preferred choice for sharing the content and following news and celebrities.
LIMITED FUNCTIONALITY CAN DETER USER BASE GROWTH While Twitter's simple design can be its unique selling
proposition, it can also act as a roadblock in its user base growth. Compared to Twitter's limited features, Facebook
offers much more flexibility in usage and content sharing. Twitter has 140 character limit for its tweets and is public
in nature, thus limiting the amount and type of content that users can share. This may put them off the service and
encourage them to use other platforms.

TWITTER'S GROSS MARGIN

Twitter's Gross Margin refers to Twitter's gross profits as a percentage of its revenues. Gross profits are calculated by
subtracting cost of revenue from total revenues.
For Twitter, the cost of revenue includes data center costs and personnel-related costs, including salaries and benefits.

Twitter's Gross Margin (%)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
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Twitter's Gross Margin was negative in 2010 as the company was incurring heavy losses and its advertising business had
just started picking up. In 2011, the figure jumped 66.3% and further climbed to 82.5% in 2012, as Twitter gained operating
leverage due to significant improvement in ad monetization. In 2013, the figure stood at 84.2%, the highest it has ever
been. We believe that the margins will stay more or less around current levels as there is limited scope of further
expansion.

Forecast Rationale
Supporting:
INTERNET BUSINESSES HAVE HIGH GROSS MARGINS The gross margins are typically high for Internet businesses that
are not involved in the sales of physical goods. This results in minimal cost of revenue, which primarily revolves
around data center costs. Facebook's gross margins are hovering around 75%, and the figure for LinkedIn is close to
88%. Therefore, we believe that Twitter can maintain gross margins of around 84% in the long run.
OPERATING LEVERAGE DUE TO ADVERTISING REVENUE GROWTH Twitter has mentioned that its gross margins may
fluctuate in the near term. However, they are likely to increase over the longer run as the company continues to grow
its advertising business. Twitter is becoming increasingly attractive to advertisers and marketers due to its highly
targeted ads. The company has an opportunity to both increase the number of ads as well as pricing. This will directly
impact gross margins as many of the components of cost of revenue are fixed in nature.

Mitigating:
INVESTMENTS IN SERVERS AND TALENT POOL As Twitter grows and competes with other platforms, it will need to
continuously improve its content sharing features and invest more in bringing rich media experience. This will imply
higher investment in servers and personnel.

In addition, you can see the detailed P&L for the United States Advertising business in the Appendix (link)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total Revenue (Bil $) 0.01 0.07 0.22 0.44 0.76 1.06 1.34 1.68 1.96 2.22 2.52 2.87
Direct Expense (Mil $) 7.86 25.2 39.3 69.4 115 161 205 255 298 339 385 437
Indirect Expense (Bil $) 0.03 0.06 0.23 0.46 0.68 0.84 0.96 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.20 1.35
Gross Profit (Bil $) -0.00 0.05 0.19 0.37 0.64 0.90 1.14 1.42 1.66 1.88 2.14 2.43
Free Cash Flow (Bil $) n/a n/a n/a n/a -0.04 0.05 0.18 0.36 0.58 0.82 0.94 1.08
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International Advertising

The most important drivers for the International Advertising business are:
International Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views
International Average Monthly Active Users
Number of Timeline Views Per International Monthly Active user

INTERNATIONAL AD REVENUE PER 1,000 TIMELINE VIEWS

International Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views represents average advertising revenue earned by Twitter per 1,000
timeline views. Timeline views are defined as the total number of timelines requested when registered users visit Twitter,
refresh a timeline or view search results while logged in. A timeline is a long stream that appears on screen showing all
tweets from those who a user chooses to follow.

International Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views increased from $0.02 in 2010 to $0.36 in 2013 as Twitter's advertising
business picked up. Given that the company is investing significantly in marketing, and has already build rapport with
major brands and advertisers, we expect the figure to continue to grow over the next few years. However, there is a good
chance that it will remain substantially below that for the U.S.

Forecast Rationale
Supporting:
INVESTMENT IN SALES AND MARKETING RESOURCES TO FUEL INTERNATIONAL REVENUE GROWTH Twitter is
increasing the size of its sales and marketing support teams in some of the international regions of Australia, Brazil,
Ireland and the Netherlands. In addition, it also intends to extend its self-serve advertising platform to countries
other than the U.S. These initiatives will help fuel the growth of international advertising revenues in the long run.
International Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views ($ per 1,000)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
0. 00
0. 25
0. 50
0. 75
1. 00
1. 25
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TARGETED AND THE DISTRIBUTION POTENTIAL OF TWITTER WILL DRAW ADVERTISERS 94 out of top 100 ad age
advertisers marketed themselves on Twitter in 2013. These advertisers are getting attractive return on investment as
they can leverage Twitter's data to effectively target their ads to the relevant audience. The benefit is not just limited
to the initial targeting. Due to 'retweet' feature and the viral nature of the platform, these ads tend to get distributed
to a much larger audience for no additional cost. Twitter's users follow various accounts and users which reflects their
interests, thus forming what the company calls as 'interest graph.' This graph is updated real-time, thus adding more
dynamism to ad targeting for advertisers. The advertisers can engage with users in relevant contexts, which results in
potential sales. For instance, if there is a conversation between two users which is somewhat related to a product or
service, the seller of that product or service can chime in creatively, thus grabbing the user's attention.
TWITTER CARDS AND TWITTER AMPLIFY PROGRAM WILL HELP Twitter's platform partners use Twitter Cards to
embed images, videos and other interactive media experience into their tweets, thus creating a much more rich and
engaging experience. These Twitter Cards can be used to create more effective advertisements, which will help
Twitter command a higher pricing. We believe that this will not have any significant impact on user experience as
these cards look just like any other tweets, only more visually appealing. Twitter Amplify program allows content
companies to distribute videos on Twitter's platform, with a short advertisement embedded. The revenues from this
advertisement are shared between Twitter and the content partner. The company has built several such partnerships
in the recent quarters. Some of the notable content partners include NFL, Viacom, Fox, Bloomberg TV, MLB.com
and Discovery.
GROWTH IN ONLINE AND MOBILE ADVERTISING The online advertising market is growing, and mobile is going to be
forefront of this growth in the coming years. Google has long dominated this market but Facebook, LinkedIn, and
now Twitter have jumped on to the bandwagon. According to Twitter, the global online advertising market
(excluding mobile) is expected to grow from $91.1 billion in 2012 to $124.7 billion in 2017, reflecting a compounded
annual growth rate of 6.5%. During the same period, global mobile advertising market is projected to increase from
$10 billion to $52.2 billion, which suggests that the proportion of mobile in the overall online advertising market will
increase rapidly. This plays right into Twitter's hands as the company earns more than 70% of its revenues from
mobile platform.

Mitigating:
COMPETITION FROM OTHER SOCIAL NETWORK PLATFORMS FOR AD DOLLARS Twitter competes with other social
networking platforms and chat applications for ad dollars. These competitors include Facebook, Google, Microsoft
and LinkedIn. Among these, Facebook and LinkedIn have registered strong ad revenue growth. Twitter's
monetization growth can be adversely affected if Facebook or other Internet companies become the preferred choice
for advertisers.
RISK OF OVERSUPPLY OF INVENTORY IN THE NEAR TERM Twitter runs the risk of oversupply of ad inventory if its
sales teams are not able to catch up with the timeline views growth. The company needs to sell this ever increasing ad
inventory to maintain and grow its monetization levels.
EXPANSION IN EMERGING MARKETS WITH LOW PURCHASING POWER Emerging markets of Latin America and Asia
are likely to have low revenue per 1,000 timeline views compared to developed markets of Europe. This could
negatively impact the figure going forward if most of the growth comes from these markets.

INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS

This figure represents average monthly active users during a given year in international markets (outside the U.S.). These
are the users who logged in and accessed Twitter in the 30-day period ending on the date of measurement.
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International Average Monthly Active Users jumped from an estimated 30.5 million in 2010 to 172.8 million in 2012 driven
by increased adoption of the service and the growth in smartphone sales. We expect the number of users to continue to
grow rapidly.

Forecast Rationale
Supporting:
INCREASING INTERNET PENETRATION IN EMERGING MARKETS The Internet penetration is increasing in emerging
markets of Asia and Latin America. This presents an opportunity for Twitter to grow in these regions. However,
China will remain a challenge as the service is blocked in the country. The company has mentioned that its user base
growth remains fast in some of the international markets of Argentina, France, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and
South Africa.
COMPARISON WITH FACEBOOK SUGGESTS TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR TWITTER IN INTERNATIONAL REGIONS For
2013, the ratio of Facebook's average monthly active users to that of Twitter stood at 3.88 for the U.S. In comparison,
the same ratio for international markets was around 5.63. This suggests that Twitter hasn't done as well in
international markets as in the U.S. so far. There is a huge scope of expansion and the growth is likely to pick up in
the coming years.
VALUE PROPOSITION TO MARKETERS Many Twitter users are marketers who want to promote their products and
services. Twitter, with its promoted tweets and promoted accounts services, offers a unique platform for these
marketers to engage with relevant audience. Even without the use of these premium services, marketers can gain a
wide reach and visibility because of the viral nature of the platform. We believe that Twitter can be a valuable source
of marketing for established companies as well as start-ups, and will continue to attract such marketers.
VALUE PROPOSITION TO INDIVIDUALS Twitter allows its users to tweet messages which are limited to 140 characters.
As a result, the messages tend to be concise and relevant, thus eliminating some noise and making content sharing
more enjoyable. As tweets are primarily public, users can follow celebrities, media outlets, political leaders, think
tanks, companies, brands and other content of their choice. This helps them stay abreast with latest news and events,
and assimilate thought process of leaders.
INTEGRATION WITH THIRD-PARTY SITES The public nature of Twitter's platform creates a wide reach. A plethora of
media and content companies distribute tweets to complement their content by making it more timely and relevant.
International Average Monthly Active Users (Mil)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
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100
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Twitter mentioned in its S1 filing that its tweets have appeared on over a million third-party
websites. Furthermore, in Q2 2013, there were roughly 30 billion online impressions of tweets on web properties other
than its own. Growing distribution and visibility will help Twitter gain more users.
GROWTH IN GLOBAL SMARTPHONE SALES Global annual smartphone sales increased from just 122 million in 2007 to
1 billion in 2013 according to IDC. We expect this figure to reach close to 2 billion over the course of next six to seven
years, accounting for 90% of the mobile phones sold at that point. This will encourage higher usage of interactive
mobile applications including Twitter. In addition, the Internet usage is gradually shifting to mobile, which has
encouraged brands and companies to focus on bringing their services to this platform. This trend plays right into
Twitter's hands as more than 75% of its monthly active users access the service from mobile devices, and over 70% of
its advertising revenues come from mobile.

Mitigating:
COMPETITION FROM OTHER SOCIAL NETWORKING PLATFORMS Twitter competes with other social networking
platforms and chat applications for user engagement. These competitors include Facebook, Google, Microsoft and
LinkedIn. Among these, Facebook and LinkedIn have registered strong growth in terms of user base as well as user
engagement. Twitter's user base growth can be adversely affected if Facebook or other Internet companies become
the preferred choice for sharing the content and following news and celebrities.
TWITTER'S SIMPLE PLATFORM MAY IMPLY LIMITED ENGAGEMENT AND SLOW USER BASE GROWTH While Twitter's
simple design can be its unique selling proposition, it can also act as a roadblock in its user base growth. Compared to
Twitter's limited features, Facebook offers much more flexibility in usage and content sharing. Twitter has 140
character limit for its tweets and is public in nature, thus limiting the amount and type of content that users can
share. This may put them off the service and encourage them to use other platforms.

NUMBER OF TIMELINE VIEWS PER INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY ACTIVE USER

This figure represents the average number of timeline views per monthly active user for a given year. Timeline views are
defined as the total number of timelines requested when registered users visit Twitter, refresh a timeline or view search
results while logged in. A timeline is a long stream that appears on screen showing all tweets from those which a user
chooses to follow.
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1.
2.
3.
4.

Number of Timeline Views Per International Monthly Active user increased from an estimated 1,069 in 2010 to 2,486 in
2013. Going forward, we expect this figure to continue to increase but at a slower pace as user engagement grows.

Forecast Rationale
Supporting:
TWITTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING A WEB UTILITY Twitter continues to attract individuals, corporations, celebrities
and world leaders. The ability to quickly transmit information to a relevant audience is something that makes the
platform unique. We believe the more users will realize this unique selling proposition, and join the platform.
Marketers are able to engage in direct conversations with their potential customers, promote their service and brand
more effectively, and stay abreast with latest industry developments.
SOCIAL MEDIA BECOMING INSTRUMENTAL IN INFLUENCING POLITICAL CHANGES Many of the countries in emerging
markets have relatively unstable political systems, which, to an extent, can be blamed to the opacity of information
and lack of awareness among the public. This is where Twitter can make a difference. Social media platforms played a
significant role in awakening masses in the recent revolution in Egypt. This stands as a strong example of how
Twitter, as well as Facebook, can be instrumental in shaping the political and economic environment of a country.
We believe that this is something that will drive further adoption of the service in international markets.
RICH MEDIA EXPERIENCE WILL IMPROVE USER ENGAGEMENT Twitter Cards is a relatively new feature that lets
customers include images and videos in their tweets. A big part of Facebook's success can be attributed to the ability
of users to share pictures and videos. The company even acquired photo sharing service Instagram to improve user
experience. This is a strong example of how interactive and rich media can increase user engagement. Twitter cards
will help increase the number of timeline views per user.
LIVE EVENTS, NEWS AND SHOWS WILL ENCOURAGE MORE INTERACTION Twitter has mentioned that the user
engagement significantly increases during certain live events, shows and breaking news. As this trend catches on, we
expect users to interact more and exchange views and opinions, thus increasing the the number of timelines views per
user. The users are increasingly turning to Twitter to follow news and politics, which will require constant timeline
refresh to stay abreast with latest updates. According to a survey, about 50% of the U.S. adult Twitter users stated that
they get their news through the platform. We believe that this trend will be more visible in international geographies
as well, going forward.
Number of Timeline Views Per International Monthly Active user (K)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
0. 0
0. 5
1. 0
1. 5
2. 0
2. 5
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5.
6.
Mitigating:
NEW USERS WILL NOT BE AS TECH SAVVY AS EARLY ADOPTERS As is the case with any technology, the early adopters
are the heaviest users. Therefore, Twitter's new users will be relatively less engaged with the service, which can put
pressure on the growth of number of timeline views per monthly active user.
LOWER USAGE IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Based on the latest available data in Twitter's SEC filings, the average
number of timeline views per user are lower in international markets as compared to the U.S. We believe that this
will continue to be the case as Twitter expands further in emerging markets where the adoption and usage of
technology and web has remained low historically.


See our analysis of Twitter's Gross Margin in the United States Advertising division here.

In addition, you can see the detailed P&L for the International Advertising business in the Appendix (link)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total Revenue (Bil $) 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.15 0.36 0.55 0.72 0.91 1.14 1.40 1.68 1.99
Direct Expense (Mil $) 0.58 1.01 7.89 24.3 54.6 83.3 109 138 174 213 255 304
Indirect Expense (Mil $) 2.16 2.53 46.1 160 322 434 512 575 628 670 796 936
Gross Profit (Bil $) -0.00 0.00 0.04 0.13 0.30 0.46 0.61 0.77 0.97 1.18 1.42 1.69
Free Cash Flow (Mil $) n/a n/a n/a n/a -19.4 27.9 94.5 194 339 512 622 751
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Data Licensing

The most important drivers for the Data Licensing business are:
Twitter's Data Licensing Revenue

TWITTER'S DATA LICENSING REVENUE

Twitter earns data licensing revenues for allowing its data partners (or customers) to gain access to, and analyze historical
and real-time data on its platform. The licenses are purchased typically for two years and the revenues are recognized as
the licensed data is made available to customers.

Twitter's Data Licensing Revenue jumped from $21 million in 2010 to $70.3 million in 2013. Going forward, we expect this
business to grow slowly than the company's advertising business as Twitter expects the percentage revenue contribution of
data licensing to decline over time. Data reselling is going to lose traction as most of the advertisers are directly going to
tie up with Twitter to market themselves and generate insights.


See our analysis of Twitter's Gross Margin in the United States Advertising division here.

Twitter's Data Licensing Revenue ($ Mil)
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total Revenue (Mil $) 21.0 28.6 47.5 70.3 112 137 162 186 208 233 257 277
Direct Expense (Mil $) 24.2 9.63 8.31 11.1 17.2 21.0 24.7 28.5 31.9 35.7 39.3 42.4
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In addition, you can see the detailed P&L for the Data Licensing business in the Appendix (link)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Indirect Expense (Mil $) 90.5 24.2 48.6 73.2 101 109 115 117 114 112 122 130
Gross Profit (Mil $) -3.21 19.0 39.2 59.2 95.4 116 137 157 176 198 217 235
Free Cash Flow (Mil $) n/a n/a n/a n/a -6.11 7.01 21.4 39.9 62.0 85.8 95.6 104
TREFIS


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Learn More

Related Trefis Coverage

If you're interested in Twitter, you may also want to see the Trefis coverage for companies such as:
eBay
Google
Yahoo
Amazon
Akamai
VeriSign
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About Trefis

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understand the seemingly familiar companies around them including well known companies like Apple, Google, Coca
Cola, GE, Ford and Gap to name a few.
The Trefis platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company's business.
We move beyond the qualitative notion "if you love the coffee at Dunkin Donuts, you should think about buying the
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TREFIS


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Appendix

Summary P&L for Twitter

Summary P&L for Twitter
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total Revenues (Bil $) 0.03 0.11 0.32 0.66 1.23 1.74 2.22 2.77 3.31 3.85 4.46 5.14
United States Advertising (% of total) 24.1 70.3 70.8 66.2 61.7 60.8 60.5 60.5 59.2 57.7 56.6 55.8
International Advertising (% of total) 1.77 2.81 14.2 23.2 29.1 31.3 32.2 32.8 34.5 36.2 37.6 38.8
Data Licensing (% of total) 74.1 26.9 15.0 10.6 9.16 7.88 7.29 6.73 6.31 6.07 5.77 5.41
Direct Expenses (Mil $) 32.6 35.8 55.5 104 187 266 339 423 505 588 680 784
Gross Profit (Bil $) -0.00 0.07 0.26 0.56 1.04 1.48 1.88 2.35 2.80 3.26 3.78 4.35
Indirect Expenses (Bil $) 0.12 0.09 0.32 0.69 1.11 1.39 1.59 1.75 1.82 1.85 2.12 2.41
United States Advertising (% of total) n/a n/a n/a n/a 61.7 60.8 60.5 60.5 59.2 57.7 56.6 55.8
International Advertising (% of total) n/a n/a n/a n/a 29.1 31.3 32.2 32.8 34.5 36.2 37.6 38.8
Data Licensing (% of total) n/a n/a n/a n/a 9.16 7.88 7.29 6.73 6.31 6.07 5.77 5.41
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Detailed P&L for the United States
Advertising business

The most important drivers for the United States Advertising business are discussed above, here is the detailed P&L.

United States Advertising: Detailed P&L
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Revenues
Twitter's U.S. Advertising Revenue
(Bil $)
0.01 0.07 0.22 0.44 0.76 1.06 1.34 1.68 1.96 2.22 2.52 2.87
Twitter's U.S. Ad Revenue Per
1,000 Timeline Views ($ per 1,000)
0.32 1.31 1.88 2.68 3.89 4.66 5.13 5.64 5.93 6.22 6.53 6.86
U.S. Monthly Active user (K)
1.69 2.30 3.06 3.22 3.19 3.28 3.38 3.48 3.59 3.70 3.81 3.92
Twitter's U.S. Average Monthly
Active Users (Mil)
12.8 24.8 39.0 51.0 61.2 69.2 77.5 85.2 92.0 96.6 101 106
Expenses
Direct Expenses (Mil $) 7.86 25.2 39.3 69.4 115 161 205 255 298 339 385 437
Twitter's Gross Margin (%) -15.3 66.3 82.5 84.2 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7
Indirect Expenses (Bil $) 0.03 0.06 0.23 0.46 0.68 0.84 0.96 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.20 1.35
Capital Expenditures as %
Revenues (%)
20.1 10.9 16.0 11.4 9.39 8.39 7.39 6.39 5.39 4.39 3.39 3.39
Accounts Receivable Days 940 136 129 135 127 119 111 103 95.8 87.8 79.8 71.8
Prepaid Expenses and other
Current Assets as % of Revenue
(%)
32.9 6.30 5.51 14.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
Accounts Payable Days 25.1 11.1 10.4 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.3 25.3 27.3 29.3 31.3 33.3
Research & Development
Expenses as % of Revenues (%)
91.7 43.8 33.6 32.2 30.7 27.7 24.7 20.7 16.7 13.7 10.7 9.70
Sales & Marketing Expenses as %
of Revenues (%)
21.4 23.0 26.9 30.3 32.3 31.3 29.3 27.3 25.3 23.3 21.3 19.3
General & Administrative
52.6 39.8 15.4 10.3 8.34 7.84 7.34 7.04 6.74 6.44 6.44 6.44
Accrued and Other Current
Liabilities % of Revenue (%)
75.8 19.3 16.6 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.1 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6
Other Assets as % of Revenue (%) 68.8 18.3 5.98 2.68 2.18 1.68 1.18 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68
Other Liabilities as % of Revenue
(%)
17.4 4.63 6.13 3.13 2.93 2.73 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53
91.7 43.8 33.6 32.2 30.7 27.7 24.7 20.7 16.7 13.7 10.7 9.70
of Revenues (%)
21.4 23.0 26.9 30.3 32.3 31.3 29.3 27.3 25.3 23.3 21.3 19.3
52.6 39.8 15.4 10.3 8.34 7.84 7.34 7.04 6.74 6.44 6.44 6.44
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Detailed P&L for the International
Advertising business

The most important drivers for the International Advertising business are discussed above, here is the detailed P&L.

United States Advertising: Detailed P&L continued
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Stock-based Compensation as %
of Revenues (%)
21.0 56.8 8.12 90.3 10.3 9.30 8.30 7.30 7.20 5.20 3.20 2.20
Effective Tax Rate (%) 0.32 1.11 -0.29 0.28 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 15.0 20.0
Total Expenses (Bil $) 0.04 0.09 0.27 0.53 0.80 1.01 1.17 1.32 1.38 1.41 1.59 1.78
Gross Profit (Bil $) -0.00 0.05 0.19 0.37 0.64 0.90 1.14 1.42 1.66 1.88 2.14 2.43
International Advertising: Detailed P&L
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Revenues
Twitter's International Advertising
Revenue (Bil $)
0.00 0.00 0.05 0.15 0.36 0.55 0.72 0.91 1.14 1.40 1.68 1.99
International Ad Revenue Per
1,000 Timeline Views ($ per 1,000)
0.02 0.03 0.17 0.36 0.72 0.93 1.07 1.20 1.35 1.51 1.66 1.83
International Monthly Active user
(K)
1.07 1.53 2.18 2.49 2.36 2.41 2.46 2.51 2.56 2.61 2.66 2.71
International Average Monthly
Active Users (Mil)
30.5 68.0 121 172 210 242 271 301 331 354 379 402
Expenses
Direct Expenses (Mil $) 0.58 1.01 7.89 24.3 54.6 83.3 109 138 174 213 255 304
Indirect Expenses (Mil $) 2.16 2.53 46.1 160 322 434 512 575 628 670 796 936
Revenues (%)
20.1 10.9 16.0 11.4 9.39 8.39 7.39 6.39 5.39 4.39 3.39 3.39
(%)
32.9 6.30 5.51 14.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
91.7 43.8 33.6 32.2 30.7 27.7 24.7 20.7 16.7 13.7 10.7 9.70
of Revenues (%)
21.4 23.0 26.9 30.3 32.3 31.3 29.3 27.3 25.3 23.3 21.3 19.3
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Detailed P&L for the Data Licensing
business

The most important drivers for the Data Licensing business are discussed above, here is the detailed P&L.

International Advertising: Detailed P&L continued
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
52.6 39.8 15.4 10.3 8.34 7.84 7.34 7.04 6.74 6.44 6.44 6.44
75.8 19.3 16.6 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.1 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6
(%)
17.4 4.63 6.13 3.13 2.93 2.73 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53
91.7 43.8 33.6 32.2 30.7 27.7 24.7 20.7 16.7 13.7 10.7 9.70
of Revenues (%)
21.4 23.0 26.9 30.3 32.3 31.3 29.3 27.3 25.3 23.3 21.3 19.3
52.6 39.8 15.4 10.3 8.34 7.84 7.34 7.04 6.74 6.44 6.44 6.44
of Revenues (%)
21.0 56.8 8.12 90.3 10.3 9.30 8.30 7.30 7.20 5.20 3.20 2.20
Total Expenses (Bil $) 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.18 0.38 0.52 0.62 0.71 0.80 0.88 1.05 1.24
Gross Profit (Bil $) -0.00 0.00 0.04 0.13 0.30 0.46 0.61 0.77 0.97 1.18 1.42 1.69
Free Cash Flow (Mil $) n/a n/a n/a n/a -19.4 27.9 94.5 194 339 512 622 751
Data Licensing: Detailed P&L
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Revenues
(Mil $)
21.0 28.6 47.5 70.3 112 137 162 186 208 233 257 277
($ Mil)
21.0 28.6 47.5 70.3 112 137 162 186 208 233 257 277
Total Revenues (Mil $) 21.0 28.6 47.5 70.3 112 137 162 186 208 233 257 277
Expenses
Direct Expenses (Mil $) 24.2 9.63 8.31 11.1 17.2 21.0 24.7 28.5 31.9 35.7 39.3 42.4
Indirect Expenses (Mil $) 90.5 24.2 48.6 73.2 101 109 115 117 114 112 122 130
Revenues (%)
20.1 10.9 16.0 11.4 9.39 8.39 7.39 6.39 5.39 4.39 3.39 3.39
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Data Licensing: Detailed P&L continued
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(%)
32.9 6.30 5.51 14.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
91.7 43.8 33.6 32.2 30.7 27.7 24.7 20.7 16.7 13.7 10.7 9.70
of Revenues (%)
21.4 23.0 26.9 30.3 32.3 31.3 29.3 27.3 25.3 23.3 21.3 19.3
52.6 39.8 15.4 10.3 8.34 7.84 7.34 7.04 6.74 6.44 6.44 6.44
75.8 19.3 16.6 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.1 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6
(%)
17.4 4.63 6.13 3.13 2.93 2.73 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.53
91.7 43.8 33.6 32.2 30.7 27.7 24.7 20.7 16.7 13.7 10.7 9.70
of Revenues (%)
21.4 23.0 26.9 30.3 32.3 31.3 29.3 27.3 25.3 23.3 21.3 19.3
52.6 39.8 15.4 10.3 8.34 7.84 7.34 7.04 6.74 6.44 6.44 6.44
of Revenues (%)
21.0 56.8 8.12 90.3 10.3 9.30 8.30 7.30 7.20 5.20 3.20 2.20
Total Expenses (Mil $) 114 33.8 56.9 84.3 118 130 140 146 146 147 161 172
Gross Profit (Mil $) -3.21 19.0 39.2 59.2 95.4 116 137 157 176 198 217 235
Free Cash Flow (Mil $) n/a n/a n/a n/a -6.11 7.01 21.4 39.9 62.0 85.8 95.6 104
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ANALYSIS for NYSE : TWTR MAY 1, 2014

U.S. Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views: We currently forecast this

International Ad Revenue Per 1,000 Timeline Views: We currently

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