SHELL ( 1 / 2 )

Genuine consultation is essential over issues of mutual interest is key to

long term US-Brail relations ! "# $revents a s%ift a&ay from t%is
frame&ork'
Peter Hakim Jan/Feb 2004, (President of Inter-American Dialogue, Foreign Affairs)
This mostly encouraging nes has contributed to a mainly cordial and constructi!e relationshi" ith the #nited $tates o!er the "ast year -- and should hel" sustain it into the future% &et there
are disagreements ith the 'ush administration that cannot be easily reconciled, and the dangers
of a more ad!ersarial relationshi" are real% 'ra(il and the #nited $tates are in!ol!ed in "ractical
dis"utes o!er different national interests, largely because of the star) asymmetries in their
res"ecti!e ealth and "oer% *ther disagreements reflect di!ergent "olitical and ideological
"ers"ecti!es beteen a conser!ati!e #%$% +hite ,ouse and a 'ra(ilian administration that, des"ite its
mainstream economic "olicies, brings a leftard "ers"ecti!e to many issues% The to countries are often finely balanced beteen collaboration and
contention on critical matters% The -uality of their relationshi" in the future may de"end more on their ability to
tolerate conflicting a""roaches than on their success in "ursuing mutual interests% Trade could be the ma)e-or-
brea) issue, because it is so central to the #nited $tates. !ision of its long-term relationshi" ith /atin America and the rest of the orld, and it also matters greatly to 'ra(il.s economic future%
+ashington and 'ras0lia ha!e been at loggerheads o!er the creation of the FTAA, a 12-country free trade (one that has been in negotiation since 3442% /ula scorned the FTAA at the outset of his
"residential cam"aign, calling it a #%$% "lan to anne5 /atin America% Although he has tem"ered his rhetoric since then, his go!ernment, including the "oerful 6inistry of Foreign Affairs, remains
o"enly s)e"tical of #%$% ambitions for the FTAA and has maintained that the economic integration of $outh America is a far higher "riority% /ula.s stance on the FTAA reflects his country.s "olitics% 7o
strong constituency in 'ra(il enthusiastically su""orts hemis"heric free trade, and e!en the 'ra(ilian business community is di!ided on the matter% 'ra(il says it ill refuse to endorse the FTAA
agreement unless the #nited $tates curtails huge subsidies to #%$% farmers and reconsiders its antidum"ing and counter!ailing duty "olicies, hich "ut cri""ling barriers in the ay of 'ra(ilian
e5"orters% These issues, hoe!er, ill not be easy to iron out at the FTAA tal)s% +ashington is bound by its "olitical constituencies at home, hich o""ose lifting e5isting "rotections% It can only
consider ma)ing the concessions 'ra(il ants in global negotiations, in tandem ith 8uro"e and Ja"an% &et, multilateral negotiations failed to ad!ance at the $e"tember 9::1 meeting of the +orld
Trade *rgani(ation in ;anc<n, 6e5ico% The conference bro)e u" "rematurely hen the "arties deadloc)ed o!er a range of issues, including agricultural subsidies% =obert >oellic), the #%$% trade
negotiator, and ;elso Amorim, 'ra(il.s foreign minister and to" negotiator, blamed the infle5ibility of each other.s go!ernment for the failure% Although seasoned obser!ers ha!e suggested that the
"arties ere not that far a"art and could ha!e reached agreement had they continued to negotiate, the colla"se at ;anc<n has at least tem"orarily set bac) #%$%-'ra(il trade relations and the
"ros"ects for creating the FTAA% 'ra(il has subse-uently claimed that it ants ?negotiations, not confrontation? on the trade issue, but it is "ro"osing as a basis for discussion a s)eletal !ersion of
the FTAA agreement that neither the #nited $tates nor most "ros"ecti!e /atin American "artners find attracti!e% Just as the #nited $tates ants to lea!e agriculture to global tal)s, 'ra(il ants to do
the same for some items of "rimary im"ortance to the #nited $tates, such as go!ernment "rocurement, intellectual "ro"erty, and trade in ser!ices% If the #nited $tates and 'ra(il, hich no co-chair
the FTAA negotiations, cannot bro)er an agreement by the current December 9::2 deadline, tal)s are li)ely to be e5tended% $hould the to countries get frustrated ith each other.s negotiating
tactics, hoe!er, the FTAA tal)s could colla"se in acrimony, and bilateral relations ould suffer greatly% A7*T,8= P=I;@/& I$$#8 F*= #%$%-'ra(il relations is +ashington.s ongoing ar against
terrorism and rogue states% Although 'ra(il as su""orti!e of the #nited $tates after $e"tember 33, 9::3 -- it in!o)ed the collecti!e security agreement of the *rgani(ation of American $tates (*A$)
to declare that the terrorist attac)s ere acts of aggression against all *A$ members -- it has since become one of the region.s harshest critics of the Ira- ar% /ast $e"tember, /ula made "lain to
the #7 Aeneral Assembly that 'ra(il, li)e most /atin American states, o""oses +ashington.s unrelenting unilateralism, its doctrine of military "reem"tion, and its fre-uent disregard for the #7%
+ashington has largely ignored 'ras0lia.s obBections so far, but "laying deaf ill become much more difficult this year, as 'ra(il ta)es a seat on the #7 $ecurity ;ouncil for a to-year term% The )ey
-uestions are hether the #nited $tates ill continue to ta)e 'ra(il.s criticism in stride and )ee" it from affecting the rest of their relationshi" and hether 'ra(il ill intensify its criticism or tone it
don% ;uba is another issue on hich the to countries do not see eye to eye% /ast year, before both the #7 and the *A$, 'ra(il refused to critici(e ;uba.s brutal treatment of dissidents, let alone
endorse #%$% resolutions condemning ;astro.s a""alling human rights record% During a !isit to the island last $e"tember, /ula made clear that he intended to maintain his long-standing "ersonal
friendshi" ith ;astro and declined to raise any "olitical issues ith him or meet local dissidents% /ula did seem to ta)e account of American sensibilities, hoe!er, by limiting his !isit to a single day
and as)ing that anti- American dis"lays be a!oided then% 'ras0lia.s relations ith ,a!ana may irritate +ashington, but they are not li)ely to cause maBor friction, es"ecially as ;uba.s "rominence in
#%$% foreign "olicy is aning% 'ra(il.s in!ol!ement in Cene(uela, on the other hand, is li)ely to be a more im"ortant feature of #%$%-'ra(il relations% For the "ast year, 'ra(il has chaired the ?friends of
Cene(uela,? a si5-country grou" that includes the #nited $tates and has urged the Cene(uelan go!ernment and insurgents to resol!e their "olitical differences "eaceably by holding a constitutionally
authori(ed recall !ote on President ;hD!e(.s term% At the same time, hoe!er, /ula has "ursued direct negotiations ith the ;hD!e( administration, to foster bilateral economic ties and closer
integration among $outh American states% 'ra(il has managed this "recarious double act so far, but should the situation in Cene(uela deteriorate, 'ras0lia might ha!e difficulty "ursuing both trac)s at
once ithout alienating +ashington% The #nited $tates should be "leased ith 'ra(il.s change in a""roach to ;olombia% Although "roceeding cautiously and still ary of #%$% in!ol!ement, 'ra(il has
shon increasing su""ort for President Al!aro #ribe.s security initiati!es and grudgingly recogni(es that #ribe.s go!ernment may need hel" from the #%$% military% 6oreo!er, ith the a""ro!al of the
;olombian go!ernment, 'ra(il has offered to host negotiations beteen the #7 and ;olombia.s main guerrilla force% 'ra(il.s "olicy shift largely reflects its concern about !iolence s"reading in the
Ama(on region and about s)yroc)eting drug use and criminality in 'ra(ilian cities% $till, 'ra(ilian officials are ary of the "resence of #%$% troo"s in a neighboring country, and any substantial
escalation of American in!ol!ement there could turn 'ra(il, once again, into a se!ere critic of #%$% "olicies in ;olombia% /ula signaled his concern about the #%$% role, as ell as 'ra(il.s e5"anding
regional as"irations, hen he in!ited #ribe to rely more on 'ra(il and less on the #nited $tates for hel"% The /ula go!ernment has also ste""ed u" efforts to turn 'ra(il into a regional leader by
encouraging "lans to ma)e 6ercosur -- a free trade arrangement among Argentina, 'ra(il, Paraguay, and #ruguay -- a central "illar of 'ra(il.s foreign "olicy, negotiate an 8#-6ercosur trade "act,
and "romote the economic integration of $outh America% The ;linton +hite ,ouse as annoyed by such initiati!es but largely ignored them% The 'ush administration a""ears to recogni(e that
'ra(il, by dint of its si(e and influence, should indeed occu"y a s"ecial "lace in $outh America% It is not yet clear, hoe!er, Bust ho much initiati!e +ashington ill tolerate% The test ill come hen
'ra(il.s ambitions directly challenge #%$% "olicy goals or interests in the region -- if, for e5am"le, they threaten to bloc) an FTAA agreement, ham"er resolution of the Cene(uela imbroglio, or "ro!o)e
ider o""osition to #%$% military aid for ;olombia% 6any in +ashington ere angered by hat they considered to be 'ra(il.s s"oiler role at the +T* meetings in ;anc<n% They ere irritated as ell by
/ula.s arm embrace of ;astro and by his continuing criticism of #%$% "olicy in Ira-% 6ost 'ra(ilians, in contrast, su""orted their go!ernment on all of these fronts% *n issue after issue, the )ey
-uestions are the sameE ,o much dissent and inde"endence ill the #nited $tates tolerate from 'ra(ilF And ho much is 'ra(il "re"ared to accommodate #%$% !ies and interestsF $* FA=,
trade has been the only issue to "ro!o)e o"en and "otentially damaging friction beteen the to countries% They ha!e been able to coo"erate, at least minimally, on thorny issues such as Cene(uela
and ;olombia, and they ha!e managed to sallo harsh rhetoric and a!oid "ublic -uarrels on others, such as ;uba and the Ira- ar% And although they ha!e stri)ingly different bac)grounds,
"ersonal styles, and "olitical "ers"ecti!es, the to "residents ha!e a""arently de!elo"ed sincere res"ect for each other% To sustain constructi!e ties,
+ashington must )ee" its e5"ectations realistic% $ome analysts and #%$% officials ha!e ad!ocated
a far tighter relationshi" beteen the to countries, ith more regular and structured collaboration%
'ut 'ra(ilians ha!e traditionally "referred "ragmatic and o""ortunistic coo"eration ith the #nited $tates on s"ecific issues% $till somehat distrustful of
+ashington, 'ras0lia is ary of creating the e5"ectation that it ill -uasi- automatically su""ort
#%$% "ositions, com"romise its ability to set an inde"endent course for itself, or diminish the
di!ersity of its other international relations% 'ra(il, in other ords, has little interest in de!elo"ing a "ri!ileged relationshi" ith the #nited $tates of the ty"e
Argentina once sought% That lea!es +ashington ith ha!ing to earn 'ras0lia.s coo"eration issue by issue,
ithout "resuming it ill be granted% $till, the relationshi" has been remar)ably stable and consistent o!er the years% The to countries ha!e not been steady
allies or continuing ad!ersaries, but they ha!e usually or)ed "roducti!ely together% Today the #nited $tates can usually count on 'ra(il for an im"ortant measure of collaboration on most issues and
can usually a!oid its outright o""osition on others% The 'ush administration should continue its good start, bolstering
friendly #%$%-'ra(il relations% /ula.s administration elcomed the +hite ,ouse.s to in!itations and #%$% recognition of 'ra(il.s s"ecial role in $outh America%
+ashington must remain attenti!e to 'ras0lia.s interests% It ould be good "olicy to systematically
solicit 'ra(il.s !ies on the full range of issues rele!ant to the hemis"here and ta)e serious
account of them% That ill re-uire +ashington to "ursue a less unilateral a""roach, "articularly in $outh America, and be illing to acce"t
com"romises on its "olicies and "rograms% 7o #%$% administration yet has been able to do this on
a sustained basis, and it may be "articularly difficult for the 'ush +hite ,ouse% 'ras0lia.s ambi!alence about its regional and international roles com"licates +ashington.s tas)%
'ra(ilian "oliticians ha!e long argued that 'ra(il is among the orld.s great "oers, alongside the #nited $tates, =ussia, ;hina, and India% As a result , 'ra(il has insisted on
"laying a lead "art in sha"ing regional "olitics, resisting #%$% attem"ts to dominate them% At the same time, it
subscribes to a traditional understanding of state so!ereignty and frons on inter!ention in a state.s domestic affairs e!en in the name of human rights and democrati(ation% (/ula said on his tri" to
;uba, ?I don.t comment on the internal "olicies of other countries%?) That !ie has led 'ra(il almost !iscerally to o""ose the #nited $tates. acti!ist agenda in the hemis"here and elsehere%
Although the #nited $tates cannot change 'ra(il.s "osition, it can moderate it in s"ecific
circumstances%
(o&n&ar) $us% in relations causes Brailian nuclear $rolif an) nuclear
conflict'
Donald Shultz 2000 (=esearch Professor of 7ational $ecurity Policy at the $trategic $tudies
Institute of the #%$% Army +ar ;ollege T,8 #7IT8D $TAT8$ A7D /ATI7 A68=I;AE $,API7A
A7 8/#$IC8 F#T#=8, 6arch)
+hile e are in a s"eculati!e mode, it may be useful to raise the issue of hether, to or three decades from no, the #nited $tates might ha!e to deal ith
a regional hegemon or "eer com"etitor% The most ob!ious candidate for such a role ould be 'ra(il, hich already
accounts for almost half of /atin AmericaGs economic "roduction and has by far the largest armed
forces in the region (131,9H: acti!e troo"s)%H1 That country could !ery ell assume a more commanding
"olitical and military role in the decades ahead% #ntil recently, the "rimary #%$% concern about 'ra(il has been that it might ac-uire nuclear ea"ons and deli!ery systems%
In the 34I:s, the 'ra(ilian military embar)ed on a secret "rogram to de!elo" an atom bomb% 'y the late
34J:s, both 'ra(il and Argentina ere aggressi!ely "ursuing nuclear de!elo"ment "rograms that had clear military s"in-offs%H2 There ere "oerful military and
ci!ilian ad!ocates of de!elo"ing nuclear ea"ons and ballistic missiles ithin both countries% Today, hoe!er, the situation
has changed% As a result of "olitical leadershi" transitions in both countries, 'ra(il and Argentina no
a""ear firmly committed to restricting their nuclear "rograms to "eaceful "ur"oses% They ha!e entered into !arious
nuclear-related agreements ith each otherKmost notably the -uadri"artite com"rehensi!e safeguards agreement (3443), hich "ermits the ins"ection of all their nuclear installations by the
International Atomic 8nergy AgencyKand ha!e Boined the 6issile Technology ;ontrol =egime% 8!en so, no one can be certain about the future% As
$cott Tollefson has obser!edE % % % the military a""lication of 'ra(ilGs nuclear and s"ace "rograms de"ends less on
technological considerations than on "olitical ill% +hile technological constraints "resent a formidable barrier to achie!ing nuclear bombs and ballistic
missiles, that barrier is not insurmountable% The critical element, therefore, in determining the a""lications of 'ra(ilGs nuclear and s"ace technologies ill be "rimarily "olitical%HH Put sim"ly , if
changes in "olitical leadershi" ere instrumental in redirecting 'ra(ilGs nuclear "rogram toards
"eaceful "ur"oses, future "olitical u"hea!als could still "roduce a re!ersion to "re!ious
orientations% ;i!ilian su"remacy is not so strong that it could not be se"t aay by a cou",
es"ecially if the legitimacy of the current democratic e5"eriment ere to be undermined by economic crisis
and groing "o!erty/ine-uality% 7or are ci!ilian leaders necessarily less militaristic or more committed to democracy than the military% The e5am"le of PeruGs FuBimori comes immediately to mind%
,o serious a threat might 'ra(il "otentially beF It has been estimated that if the nuclear "lant at Angra dos =eis (Angra I) ere
only "roducing at 1: "ercent ca"acity, it could "roduce fi!e 9:-)iloton ea"ons a year% If "roduction
from other "lants ere included, 'ra(il ould ha!e a ca"ability three times greater than India or
Pa)istan% Furthermore, its defense industry already has a substantial missile "roducing ca"ability% *n the other
hand, the country has a !ery limited ca"acity to "roBect its military "oer !ia air and sealift or to sustain its forces o!er long distances% And though a 34J1 la authori(es significant military man"oer
increases (hich could "lace 'ra(il at a numerical le!el slightly higher than France, Iran and Pa)istan), such groth ill be restricted by a lac) of economic resources% Indeed, the de!elo"ment of all
these military "otentials has been, and ill continue to be, se!erely constrained by a lac) of money% (+hich is one reason 'ra(il decided to engage in arms control ith Argentina in the first "lace%) HL
In short, a restoration of 'ra(ilian militarism, imbued ith nationalistic ambitions for great "oer status,
is not unthin)able, and such a regime could "resent some fairly serious "roblems% That
go!ernment ould "robably need foreign as ell as domestic enemies to hel" Bustify its e5istence% *ne
ob!ious candidate ould be the #nited $tates, hich ould "resumably be critical of any return to
dictatorial rule% 'eyond this, moreo!er, the s"ectre of a "redatory international community, co!etous of the riches of the Ama(on, could hel" rally "olitical su""ort to the regime% For
years, some 'ra(ilian military officers ha!e been arning of Mforeign inter!ention%N Indeed, as far bac) as 3443 Aeneral
Antenor de $anta ;ru( Abreu, then chief of the 6ilitary ;ommand of the Ama(on, threatened to transform the region into a Mne CietnamN if de!elo"ed countries tried to Minternationali(eN the
Ama(on% $ubse-uently, in 3441, #%$%-Auyanese combined military e5ercises near the 'ra(ilian border "ro!o)ed an angry res"onse from many high-ran)ing 'ra(ilian officers% HI $ince then, of
course, #%$%-'ra(ilian relations ha!e im"ro!ed considerably% 7e!ertheless, the basic #%$%/ international concerns o!er the Ama(onKthe
threat to the regionGs ecology through burning and deforestation, the "resence of narcotraffic)ing
acti!ities, the Indian -uestion, etc%Kha!e not disa""eared, and some may !ery ell intensify in the years
ahead% At the same time, if the groing trend toards subregional economic grou"ingsKin "articular, 68=;*$#=Kcontinues, it is li)ely to increase com"etition beteen $outhern ;one
and 7AFTA countries% 8conomic conflicts, in turn, may be e5"ected to intensify "olitical differences, and could lead to heightened "olitico-military ri!alry beteen different blocs or coalitions in the
hemis"here% 8!en so, there continue to be traditional ri!alries and conflicts ithin 68=;*$#=, es"ecially beteen 'ra(il and its neighbors, and these ill certainly com"licate the grou"Gs e!olution%
Among other things, the "ast year itnessed a serious deterioration of relations beteen 'ra(il and Argentina, the "roduct "artly of the formerGs January 3444 currency de!aluation, hich se!erely
strained economic ties beteen the to countries% In "art, too, these conflicts ere aggra!ated by ArgentinaGs (unsuccessful) bid to Boin the 7orth Atlantic Treaty *rgani(ation (7AT*), hich
'ra(ilians inter"reted as an attem"t to gain strategic ad!antage% The u"shot as that relations soured to the e5tent here -uestions ha!e been raised as to the continued !iability of 68=;*$#=
itself% In light of these "roblems, one cannot but onder hat im"act a resurgence of 'ra(ilian authoritarianism, combined ith a "ush for regional hegemonic status, ould ha!e on Argentina,
currently a Mnon-7AT* allyN of the #nited $tates% Finally, closer to home, there is the difficult "roblem of #%$% border defense% *ne sus"ects that the years ahead
ill itness groing "ressure to use De"artment of Defense "ersonnel and resources to bolster
la enforcement agencies "atrolling #%$% frontiers to "re!ent illegal immigration and drug smuggling% (Indeed, legislation
has already been "ro"osed authori(ing the de"loyment of u" to 3:,::: more troo"s on the $outhest 'order% In late 344J, hoe!er, the bill as reBected by the $enate%) $ince 344:, the military has
been engaged in se!eral thousand o"erations along the frontier, running listening "osts to assist the 'order Patrol in trac)ing drugs and migrants, building fences and barriers, re"airing roads, and
hel"ing la enforcement agencies in counternarcotics o"erations% &et, notithstanding this aid, ci!ilian agencies continue to be stretched thin% The
amount of drugs coming o!er the border has not been significantly reduced, and la enforcement officials often find themsel!es outgunned and outmanned by their ad!ersaries%
;onse-uently, there is an increasing tem"tation to loo) to the military for ansers%
B*+,-L S+.S .ES ! GE/E*+L
B*+,-L S+.S .ES 01 +/.0H-/G2 3+/0S + #1S-0-4E +GE/(+ 3-0H 0HE
U'S'
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%5!ii //loghryR
=elations beteen the #nited $tates and 'ra(il entered the tenty-first century facing ne
challenges and o""ortunities% 6aBor transformations in the substance and format of bilateral ties
ha!e been connected to ne landsca"es in the domestic and international affairs of both
countries% The combination of outstanding economic "erformance ith an unchallenged military
"rimacy and "olitical leadershi" has alloed the #nited $tates to reaffirm hegemonic attributes,
becoming the most "oerful actor in the orld "oer system% For 'ra(il, the im"act of
democrati(ation, together ith the effects of orld economic globali(ation and the end of the ;old
+ar, redesigned domestic and e5ternal "ressures and interests% 7oadays, 'ra(il see)s a
"ositi!e agenda ith the #nited $tates, though the te5ture of this relationshi" has become more
com"le5 and difficult to categori(e under a single label% The "ost-;old +ar orld "oses ne
challenges and o""ortunities for the #nited $tates and 'ra(il% Thus, ne areas of con!ergence
and of discre"ancies beteen the to countries ha!e emerged, introducing ne fla!ors to the
main course%
B*+,-L S+.S .ES ! E7B+*G1
B*+,-L 1##1SES 0HE E7B+*G1
=obert 8% White (staff) 1/I/2013
PMAfter ;hD!e(, a ;hance to =ethin) =elations +ith ;ubaN online S
htt"E//%nytimes%com/9:31/:1/:J/o"inion/after-cha!e(-ho"e-for-good-neighbors-in-latin-
america%htmlF"ageantedTallUVrT:, loghryR
/i)e its "redecessors, t%e 18ama a)ministration %as given fe& signs t%at it %as gras$e) t%e
magnitu)e of t%ese c%anges or cares a8out t%eir conse9uences% After President *bama too) office in
9::4, /atin AmericaGs leading statesman at the time, /ui( InDcio /ula da $il!a, then t%e $resi)ent of Brail2 urge)
6r% 18ama to normalie relations &it% "u8a%
Lula, as he is uni!ersally )non, correctly i)entifie) our "u8a $olicy as t%e c%ief stum8ling
8lock to rene&e) ties &it% Latin +merica, as it had been since the !ery early years of the ;astro
regime%
B*+,-L SU##1*0S E/(-/G 0HE E7B+*G1
United Nations General Assembly 33/31/2012
PMWA=;,AI;, P#7ITIC8G 86'A=A* 6#$T '8 ;*7$IA78D T* ,I$T*=& '**@$, $A& $P8A@8=$,N $i5ty-se!enth
Aeneral Assembly of the #%7%, online S htt"E//%un%org/7es/Press/docs/9:39/ga33133%doc%htm, loghryR
6A=IA /#I>A =I'8I=* CI*TTI ( Brail), s$eaking on 8e%alf of Sout%ern "ommon 7arket
(68=;*$#=), sai) t%at t%e Grou$ %a) 8een foun)e) on t%e $rinci$les of inter)e$en)ence and
good neighbourly relations% Alongside its /atin American neighbours, 7E*"1SU* s%o&e) res$ect for t%e
sovereignty of States an) for international la&2 an) it vie&e) t%at t%e em8argo ran contrary
to t%e $rinci$les of t%e Unite /ations "%arter an) international la&% In "articular, s%e sai)2 it
violate) t%e $rinci$le of non-interference in t%e affairs of ot%er States' 0%e em8argo also
ran contrary to t%e $rinci$les of :ustice an) %uman rig%ts, limited and delayed social and economic
"rogress and inhibited the achie!ement of the 6illennium Aoals and other de!elo"ment targets%
B*+,-L S+.S .ES ! E0H+/1L
Brail &ill say yes
Winter 12 ('rian +inter, staff riter for =euters, on $e"tember 32, 9:39% Found at
htt"E//%reuters%com/article/9:39/:4/32/us-bra(il-us-ethanol-id#$'=8JJD34H9:39:432) Accessed 2/I/31 A,
After years at each other.s throats, razil and the United States are or)ing together to "romote the
use of ethanol in a collaboration that could re!olutioni(e global mar)ets and the ma)eu" of the
biofuel itself%X The brea)through came in January hen +ashington alloed a three-decade-old
subsidy for #%$% ethanol "roducers to e5"ire and ended a stee" tariff on foreign biofuels% The tariff,
in "articular, had "oisoned di"lomatic relations beteen the orld.s to" to ethanol-"roducing
countries for years%X $ince then, industry e5ecuti!es and go!ernment officials from both countries
ha!e seen tangible "rogress in efforts to boost the "roduction and consum"tion of ethanol around
the orld, they told =euters%X The to nations ha!e been lobbyin" foreign go!ernments to #reate
ne$ markets in Africa and %atin Ameri#a, "lanning Boint ?road shos? to attra#t ne$ in!estments in
bio&uel #om'anies( and "ushing for a uniform global standard for ethanol, $hi#h #ould make it easier
to trade the bio&uel a#ross borders) =esults may still be years aay, but officials say the
collaboration might breathe some ne life into an industry facing an uncertain future because of
chronic "roduction shortfalls and doubts about the en!ironmental benefits of many biofuels%X ?I
thin) there.s a clear sense no that e should be collaborating instead of fighting each other,? said
Terry 'ranstad, go!ernor of Ioa, the to" #%$% ethanol-"roducing state%X After a July meeting ith
senior officials in 'ra(il, ?I as !ery encouraged by hat I heard,? he said in an inter!ie% ?The
more e coo"erate, the more e can gro the orldide demand for hat e "roduce%?X Plinio
7astari, the head of res"ected 'ra(ilian sugar analysis firm Datagro, said he as "articularly
encouraged by the Boint efforts to de!elo" additional ethanol "roducers%X 'ecause 'ra(il and the
#nited $tates account for about JH "ercent of global ethanol "roduction, one-time e!ents li)e the
current #%$% drought can cause ild sings in su""ly - and "rices%X ?That holds u" ethanol from
becoming a idely traded commodity,? 7astari said%X 6any of the ideas for collaboration date bac)
to a 9::I bilateral agreement signed by "re!ious 'ra(ilian and #%$% go!ernments% &et "rogress
as slo until this year as di"lomats and other officials often s"ent time hashing out dis"utes
instead of finding ays to or) together%X ?#nfortunately, the tariff issue made it im"ossible to
mo!e forard on many of these (subBects),? said Aeraldine @utas, head of international affairs for
#nica, 'ra(il.s main sugar cane industry association% ?The conditions are right, no% This is the
moment of truth%?X T,=*#A,*#T T,8 T=*PI;$X *he most 'romisin" e&&ort is also the one that
has sho$n the most !isible 'ro"ress+ tryin" to "et #ountries in ,entral Ameri#a, the ;aribbean and
Africa to 'rodu#e and #onsume more ethanol)X *fficials from the #%$% De"artment of $tate,
De"artment of 8nergy and the "ri!ate sector, and their 'ra(ilian e-ui!alents, ha!e been or)ing
together to con!ince other go!ernments of ethanol.s benefits%X ?+e.re trying to sho other nations
hat ethanol has meant for our economies,? Ioa Ao!ernor 'ranstad said% ?In our state, it.s hel"ed
boost our farmers. income and reduce our de"endency on foreign oil% Those are ideas ith a lot of
a""eal%?X $ugar cane, the main source of ethanol made in 'ra(il, already gros in many of the
countries seen as "otential "roducers of the biofuel%X ;ane "roduces more energy than it
consumes during the ethanol-ma)ing "rocess, unli)e corn, the basis for #%$% ethanol%X Home"ro$n
ethanol holds ob!ious a''eal &or small( 'oor #ountries that im"ort most of their energy at enormous
costs% ,onduras, for e5am"le, s"ent Y9%3 billion - 39 "ercent of its gross domestic "roduct - on fuel
im"orts in 9:33%X ,oe!er, "roducers and other in!estors generally refuse to build ethanol mills
and other infrastructure unless they ha!e a guaranteed domestic mar)et%X ?And im"lementation of
that frameor) gets to be !ery technical and difficult,? #nica.s @utas said%X *ne e5am"leE In the
34J:s, Auatemala "assed a la mandating a blend of ethanol in gasoline but has rarely enforced it
because of bottlenec)s that include a se"arate la ca""ing the amount of the sugar cane cro" that
can be used for biofuels%X To resol!e such "roblems, the razilian and U)S) "o!ernments ha!e
hel'ed finance and "roduce studies of the countries. ability to #reate and sustain ethanol 'rodu#tion)
,onduras, Auatemala and 8l $al!ador are here the most "rogress has been made, di"lomats
say%X ?+e ha!e dee" contacts in many of these countries, but the 'ra(ilians ha!e the e5"ertise on
sugar,? said a #%$% official ho re-uested anonymity because the negotiations are "olitically
sensiti!e% ?+hen e or) together, as e ha!e been lately %%% it.s "retty "oerful%?X T,8 78ZT
F=*7TI8=E ;#'AFX 'ra(il and the #nited $tates ha!e ste""ed u" their lobbying in recent
months% Pilot ethanol "rograms to introduce the biofuel to consumers ith blend re-uirements are
set to begin in three countries, starting in ,onduras by early 9:31, another #%$% official said%X To
accelerate the "rocess, 'ra(il and the #nited $tates are "lanning "resentations in coming months
to attract ne in!estors interested in biofuel "roBects in the three countries, officials said%X 'ra(il.s
groing di"lomatic clout has been critical to o"ening doors in countries here the nation has dee"
strategic or cultural connections, such as $enegal, 6o(ambi-ue and ,aiti% And it is uni-uely
e-ui""ed to e5ert influence in ;uba%X ,uba-s on#e.mi"hty su"ar industry has deteriorated in recent
decades under communist rule, but =ice #ni!ersity economist =on $oligo has said the #ountry has
the 'otential to be#ome the $orld-s No) 3 ethanol 'rodu#er behind the United States and razil)X
+hile +ashington has had little di"lomatic contact ith ;uba in the "ast fi!e decades, 'ra(il has a
tradition of arm "olitical and economic ties ith the ;aribbean nation% President Dilma =ousseff
!isited ,a!ana in January and s"o)e of ho 'ra(il can hel" ;uba de!elo" its economy%X /arge-
scale ethanol "roduction has been largely taboo in ;uba, in "art because former President Fidel
;astro has denounced it as a ?sinister? idea that dri!es u" global food "rices% &et some 'ra(ilian
officials say that stance could change dramatically once the JL-year-old leader ithdras from
"olitics%X /0!erybody kno$s that ,uba is an ethanol bonanza $aitin" to ha''en(/ said a razilian
o&&i#ial $ho re1uested anonymity) /We-ll be ready)/
Brail $us%ing US to o$en markets to Brailian et%anol ! foo) crisis gives
momentum to an agreement
6aggie +irriess% I/3H/255; ('ra((il% Airriess is a =esearch Fello at the ;ouncil on
,emis"heric Affairs, Pro-uest)
U'S'-Brail tension2 a relatively recent )evelo$ment2 resurface) )uring t%e U/ 3orl) <oo)
Summit in =ome on June 1-H, encouraging t%e 8ooming Brailian sugar-8ase) et%anol market
to increase its ne& )evelo$ment $ro:ects' 0%is rift re$resents a )e facto counter move
against t%e far less-efficient U'S' mo)el $re)icate) on corn-8ase) et%anol $ro)uction %
Folloing the summit, 'ra(ilian officials began a ee)long tour, sto""ing in 6orocco, Algeria and Tunisia, during hich
they discussed a set of commercial agreements that ill boost multilateral coo"eration ith se!eral African countries% The
trade agreements, "roBected to begin in 9::4, include an e5"ansion in ethanol in!estment, urbanism, air and sea
trans"ort, and coo"eration in "rofessional training beteen the to regions% In a statement that a""eared in 'ra((il
maga(ine, 'ra(ilian $ecretary of De!elo"ment, I!an =amalho, remar)ed that he ho"ed the meetings ould enhance
trade ith other countries in order to diminish 'ra(il.s o!er-reliance on the #%$% mar)et% 'ra(il.s recent trade initiati!es ith
other de!elo"ing countries ha!e emerged largely due to the reluctance of some de!elo"ed nations to loer trade
subsidies% This im"edes 'ra(il.s ability to trade, adding significantly to the current debate o!er rising food "rices% -n an
official statement released after the first set of meetings, 6ichel Alaby, Secretary General of t%e Arab
Brailian "%am8er of "ommerce2 calle) for soli)arity among countries suffering from
rising foo) $rices an) )eman)e) t%at )evelo$e) countries2 es$ecially t%e U'S% and 8uro"e,
eliminate international tra)e 8arriers in t%e agricultural sector ('ra((il 6aga(ine)% +ith the emerging
agreements, Brailian officials %o$e to call attention to t%e U'S'= %ig%ly inefficient corn-8ase)
et%anol $ro)uction at t%e %eig%t of a sno&8alling foo) crisis% The go!ernment as"ires to be a strong
actor in the midst of the food crisis and "lans to sho the rest of the orld the benefits of 'ra(il.s efficient sugar ethanol
mar)et, hile it "rofesses to be e5ecuting "roBects stalling the destruction of the Ama(on rainforest%
Lula $us% for US to o$en markets to Brailian et%anol ! foo) $rices $rovi)e
momentum
6aggie +irriess' I/3H/255; ('ra((il% Airriess is a =esearch Fello at the ;ouncil on
,emis"heric Affairs, Pro-uest)
*ne main concern o!er ho biofuel "olicy disru"ts the mar)et is the current e5cessi!e "oer that
interest grou"s ha!e in the debate on subsidies in de!elo"ed nations (=unge)% Instead of catering
to s"ecial interests, #%$% "oliticians ould be ell ad!ised to coo"erate ith other countries%
+hile the #7 or)s diligently to halt the groing food shortage, orld leaders refuse to amend
restrictions on food e5"orts% This negligence is ine5cusable on both economic and humanitarian
grounds% 7ot All 8thanol is The $ame In defense of sugar-based ethanol, President /ula stated
that the #%$% misguidedly "roduces corn for ethanol instead of other agricultural "roducts, hile
)ee"ing subsidies high to benefit #%$% multinational com"anies% /ula argues that this is another
case here the #%$% )ee"s de!elo"ing countries from "laying an influential role in the orld
economy% ,e claimed, ?I am sorry to see that many of those ho blame ethanol, including from
sugarcane, for the high "rice of food are the same ones ho for decades ha!e maintained
"rotectionist "olicies to the detriment of farmers in "oor countries and of consumers in the entire
orld%? In com"arison ith corn-based ethanol, sugar-based ethanol is more efficient, chea"er to
"roduce, and uses less !aluable land% According to the +orld 'an).s, 'iofuelsE the Promises and
the =is)s, the #%$% ethanol industry currently uses 3: million hectares, hile 'ra(il only uses 1%L
million of such terrain and "roduces eight to ten times more energy than that "roduced from corn%
'ra(il does not subsidi(e sugar, hich hel"s sustain global sugar "rices% +hereas corn "rices
ha!e surged LH[ in the last fi!e years, hich many argue is the result of #%$% subsidies% 'ra(ilian
ethanol also yields J%1 times more energy than the fossil fuels used to "roduce it, hile corn
ethanol yields only 3%H times the energy it consumes%
B*+,-L S+.S .ES ! L-<0-/G 0+*-<< ( 1 / 1 )
B*+,-L H+0ES 0HE SUG+* 0+*-<<
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%9I //loghryR
#%$% trade "olicies ha!e re"resented a continuous source of friction for 'ra(il% Though the #nited
$tates has one of the loest tariff systems in orld trade-2%H "ercent is the a!erage-
discriminatory measures ha!e led to the a""lication of an a!erage tariff of 2H%L "ercent on the
fifteen to" 'ra(ilian e5"orts to the #%$% mar)et% These fifteen "roducts re"resent 1L%2 "ercent of
'ra(ilian total e5"orts% I The a!erage tariff im"osed on the fifteen most im"ortant #%$% e5"orts to
'ra(il does not sur"ass 32%1 "ercent%
'ra(ilian agricultural "roducts re"resent only :%9 "ercent of total #%$% agricultural im"orts (see
Table 9%J)% An interesting "arallel can be made ith 6e5ico, hich no re"resents o!er 2:
"ercent of #%$% agricultural im"orts%
The #%$% tariff rate -uota system has affected 'ra(ilian "roducts such as sugar, hich has been
e5cluded from the Aeneral $ystem Preference since 34J4, and tobacco% As a conse-uence of
#%$% -uota "olicies, tariffs im"osed u"on 'ra(ilian sugar ere 91L "ercent, and 1H: "ercent on
tobacco%
Brail &ill say yes t%ey &ant t%e et%anol tariff remove)
0%e 0imes, Tom ,ennigan, 1/4/255>, M'ra(il to "ress 'ush for cut in #$ ethanol tariff,N Times
*nline,
htt"E//business%timesonline%co%u)/tol/business/mar)ets/unitedVstates/article32J441H%ece
President /ula da $il!a ill demand that the #nited $tates loer tariffs on its en!ironmentally
friendly ethanol fuel hen he meets President 'ush in $\o Paulo today% 'ra(il is the orldGs
biggest e5"orter of ethanol and is "romoting it around the globe as a cleaner alternati!e to "etrol%
/ast year the #$ im"orted about half of all 'ra(ilian ethanol e5"orts, but it is e5"ected that an
increase in local "roduction ill lead to a fall in 'ra(ilian im"orts this year%
"1/SUL0+0-1/ S1L4ES *EL+0-1/S ( 1 / 2 )
B*+,-L 3+/0S "1/SUL0+0-1/2 SEES -0 +S "*U"-+L <1* *EL+0-1/S
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%1I //loghryR
The granting of TPA by the #%$% ,ouse of =e"resetati!es in December 9::3 dee"ened
discre"ancies in #%$%-'ra(il trade tal)s e!en more% The ne congressional authori(ation
included conditions that ere considered unacce"table and ere inter"reted by the 'ra(ilian
go!ernment as an obstacle to further FTAA negotiations% 'ra(il became "articularly concerned
ith to TPA clauses-one that "re!ieed consultation by the #%$% go!ernment on currency
mechanisms ado"ted by others if considered a threat to #%$% com"etiti!eness, and another that
listed 941 "roducts to be e5cluded from negotiations, including an e5tensi!e list of agricultural
goods% This meant that the #nited $tates could maintain subsidies for most of the agricultural
"roducts it e5"orted to /atin America and ould not ha!e to touch antidum"ing legislation that
restricted the entrance of many /atin American e5"orts to the #nited $tates% Political leaders in
'ra(il, from the /eft to the =ight, and ;ardoso himself, condemned the contents of the
authori(ation%
#olicy making a8sent consultation )estroys US-Brail *elations
3as%ington #ost, 6ay 3H, 2551, M'ra(il.s .Destiny.E An *bstacle to Free TradeFN
'oth sides should or) to a!oid this looming contest% The #nited $tates should ma)e it a "riority
to restore the traditional intimacy beteen the to countries% It needs to mo!e its dealings ith
'ra(il to the highest le!els of its go!ernment and to dis"lay greater sensiti!ity to the "ride and
dignity of a society on the !erge of becoming a maBor "oer% This im"lies restraint on hortatory
rhetoric and on the attem"t to im"ose e!ery #%$% "reference !ia sanctions% It also re-uires a
commitment to resol!e the bitter trade dis"utes o!er 'ra(ilian sugar, citrus and steel e5"orts%
For its "art, 'ra(il should remember that the historical style of consultations of +estern
,emis"here di"lomacy is at !ariance ith the confrontational style of 8uro"ean balance-of-"oer
di"lomacy% 6oreo!er, a confrontational course is li)ely to threaten the cohesion of 6ercosur,
none of hose members is "re"ared to gi!e u" direct access to the #nited $tates on behalf of
6ercosur%
"1/SUL0+0-1/ S1L4ES *EL+0-1/S ( 2 / 2 )
"onsultation is key to US-Brail *elations
James "arrag%er *ct 94, 2552 (Director of 'ra(ilian and $outhern ;one Affairs at #$ $tate
De"artment% Federal 7es $er!ice)
+e consider 'ra(il a regional "artner, and e consult on hemis"heric challenges% +e ill continue to
consider 'ra(il a regional "artner% +e ill continue to consult ith them on hemis"heric challenges% 'ra(il and e are
to of the largest and therefore, both for geogra"hic and numerical side, most im"ortant democracies in the hemis"here%
It is im"ortant, it is natural, and it ill continue to be the case that e ha!e broad consultations across the
board% +e.!e or)ed on maBor regional security issues, including the border dis"ute beteen Peru and 8cuador]
stability of democratic institutions in Paraguay] and the near cou" in 8cuador% There are tactical differences% There
alays ill be tactical differences% +hat e share and hat e ill continue to share for the ne5t four years and, I
belie!e, for the foreseeable future is a dedication to "reser!ing democratic -- "reser!ing and e5"anding democratic
go!ernance in the hemis"here% I thin) it.s im"ortant to note too that e or) closely -- the to countries --
together and ha!e Boint "rograms in areas not often in "ublic !ie, "rominently in "ublic !ie% And that ould
be, for e5am"le, areas of health, science, technology and education% And e ould li)e to see more "ublic attention to
those areas and others here e or) ell together% And si5 ee)s into the Bob, don.t raise your hand, "lease, and as)
me, ?+hat are those areasF? I.ll Bust refer you to the des) officers, and they can gi!e you more details% Than) you !ery
much% First, the first meeting of the senior consultati!e "anel on science and technology, for one e5am"le, as held in
'rasilia in July% +e ha!e regular mechanisms to strengthen and dee"en our relationshi", regular
meetings, the last one of hich as last ee), the most recent one of hich -- sorry -- beteen our "olitical
undersecretaries in our to foreign ministries, la enforcement communities, the defense de"artments, among others%
+e also on *ctober 99nd, hich as hen e had the bilateral consultations, tried a first -- for the first time a trilateral
consultation as ell, ith 6e5ico, 'ra(il and the #nited $tates% I thin) Ambassador 'arbosa and his colleague as
there% All sides felt that as a beneficial thing to do, and I thin) all sides agreed that it ould be beneficial to do it in the
end -- in the future, as ell% 7o if I could loo) Bust briefly to the future, e do e5"ect change in 'ra(il.s foreign "olicy%
This is a ne administration% 7e administrations bring changes% They bring changes domestically% They bring changes
in foreign "olicy% Just as ith a change in our administrations, e!en the most dramatic changes at times, e thin) that
"robably much of the change ill be tone and style, rather than substance% +e noted that in his s"eech after election,
the "resident-elect said 'ra(il ill negotiate FTAA ith so!ereign determination and see)ing to elect "rotectionism% ,e
also, if I recall correctly, has characteri(ed the #nited $tates in the "ast as a negotiating style of aggressi!eness in
defending its on interest% That.s e5actly hat democracies are su""osed to do% I don.t thin) there.s a single "erson in
this room that ould trade -- that ould not trade the orld e ha!e today for a orld in hich e had 3L: democracies
ho ere aggressi!ely defending and negotiating their "ositions% +e e5"ect that from democracies, and e loo) forard
to doing so ith the da $il!a administration% +e thin), tal)ing about tone and style, that e ill ha!e "erha"s to or)
harder ith a da $il!a administration to gain su""ort on some of the issues e ill be "ursuing in multilateral fora%
,oe!er, I ould note that on ;olombia, the "resident- elect o""oses outside military inter!ention, the same "osition as
the ;ardoso go!ernment has held% The comment -- and this is a "layoff of Ambassador ,arrington.s remar) -- the !ie
that he is close to President ;ha!e( of Cene(uela and to Fidel ;astro -- note, hoe!er, that the PT has urged ;ha!e(
and the o""osition to engage in constructi!e dialogue, and /ula himself has "ersonally called on President ;astro to hold
-- the self- designated President ;astro to hold free elections% I don.t ant to get into a bottom line and characteri(e
our bilateral relationshi" ith a da $il!a administration !is-a-!is a President ;ardoso.s administration% +e ill be or)ing
as hard as e "ossibly can on a number of fronts to -- and I don.t thin) I.m going too far here - - to im"ro!e hat I thin) is
an e5cellent bilateral relationshi"% +e recogni(e the im"ortance of 'ra(il to the hemis"here% President-elect
da $il!a and his "arty and his coalitions of "arties recogni(e, e belie!e, the im"ortance of 'ra(il.s
relationshi" ith the #nited $tates and our role and interest in the hemis"here% This reali(ation on
both sides ill lead us, I belie!e, to continue to consult each other constantly, in a broad !ariety
of fora, and to or) together in a constructi!e, not necessarily fully agreement manner, but
alays in a constructi!e manner in hich, as to democracies should, e ill be able to sit don
and clearly lay out our agreements, our areas of agreement and our areas of differences, and
or) at ays to bridge those differences%
"1/SUL0 S1L4ES (L+U/(*.) ( 1 / 1 )
"onsultations 8olster overall US-Brailian relations - key to tra)e
li8eraliation2 environmental $rotection2 counter terrorism2 an) t%e glo8al
economy
#u8lic #a$ers of t%e #resi)ents, L/91/255?
The #nited $tates and 'ra(il resol!e to create a closer and -ualitati!ely stronger relationshi"
beteen our to countries% It is time to chart a nely "ur"oseful direction in our relationshi", guided by a shared !ision of
freedom, democracy, "eace, "ros"erity, and ell- being for our "eo"les, in order to "romote hemis"heric and global
coo"eration% +e are among the most "o"ulous democracies in the orld% Forged from di!erse cultures, "ro!ing that
di!ersity is our strength% ;ontinental in si(e and immigrant in origin, e share the fundamental belief that freedom,
democracy, and social Bustice are uni!ersal as"irations, essential for "eace and "ros"erity and unconstrained by either
culture or le!el of economic de!elo"ment% *ur commitment to human rights for all "eo"le in e!ery nation is strong and
una!ering% +e agree that re"resentati!e democracy and the rule of la are indis"ensable to building modern
economies and "olitical systems that "romote groth, accountability, trans"arency, and stability, and encourage economic
o""ortunity ithout fa!or or "reBudice% Democracy is essential to sustainable de!elo"ment% In the same ay, reducing
ine-uality and im"ro!ing social Bustice contribute to stability and international security% +e affirm that countries should
embrace "olicies that "romote groth and social inclusion, hich are the )ey to increasing incomes, im"ro!ing standards of
li!ing, and ending "o!erty and hunger% +e share the con!iction that go!ernments should or) to em"oer their "eo"le
through good go!ernance, fighting corru"tion, ensuring "ersonal security, encouraging enter"rise, and "ro!iding all citi(ens
access to high- -uality education, ade-uate health, and nutritional care% +e agree that free trade furthers
"ros"erity and de!elo"ment, contributes to the "romotion of entre"reneurial initiati!e and to the strengthening of the
"ri!ate sector, ith "ositi!e social im"act% +e also agree that trade liberali(ation can contribute to dynamic
groth, technological inno!ation, and to indi!idual and collecti!e ad!ancement o!er the long term%
+e therefore reaffirm our commitment to fighting "rotectionism% +e ha!e built creati!e, entre"reneurial
societies% =egionally as ell as globally, e ha!e im"ortant res"onsibilities in areas such as commerce,
science and technology, energy, en!ironmental "rotection, education, and health% The currents of commerce
and culture that lin) our societies run strong and dee"% *ur "artnershi" of shared !alues leads us to see) a natural
"artnershi" of shared endea!ors% As to nations recogni(ing both the "romise and des"erate "o!erty of Africa, and the
strong ties and African heritage of many of our citi(ens, e commit oursel!es to or)ing together for an African continent
that li!es in liberty, "eace, and groing "ros"erity% +e intend to "ursue this goal through our di"lomacy and the "romotion
of "roBects that reinforce economic, commercial, social, and cultural ties ith the countries of Africa% Therefore, the
#nited $tates and 'ra(il ill engage in regular consultations, or)ing together for "ros"erity,
democratic go!ernance, and "eace in the hemis"here and beyond% =eaffirming our commitment to
ad!ance common !alues, e ill continue to or) together to "rotect and ad!ance democracy, human rights, tolerance,
religious freedom, free s"eech and inde"endent media, economic o""ortunity, and the rule of la% +e ill
coo"erate on issues of mutual interest that contribute to the defense and security of the
hemis"here, bolstering Boint efforts to counter terrorism, narcotics traffic)ing and consum"tion,
traffic)ing in "ersons, and other transnational criminal challenges to regional "eace% *ur strength
lies in the ability of our "eo"le to sha"e their destiny and to reali(e their as"irations for a better life% That is hy the #nited
$tates and 'ra(il are and ill remain allies in the cause of democracy% +e ill share our e5"erience in nurturing and
strengthening democratic institutions the orld o!er, thereby fighting challenges to the democratic order from "o!erty,
illiteracy, intolerance, and terrorism% 6oreo!er, e recogni(e that successfully addressing the hemis"here.s challenges
re-uires collaborati!e and coo"erati!e efforts and, to that end, e ill or) together to strengthen the *rgani(ation of
American $tates, the bular) of regional coo"eration, including through im"lementation of the Inter-American Democratic
;harter% +e need to reinforce the #%7% system, es"ecially by e5"loring ays to ma)e the $ecurity ;ouncil and other #%7%
bodies more effecti!e and more res"onsi!e to current international challenges and realities% +e ha!e much to learn from
each country.s uni-ue e5"erience in moderni(ing our economies] achie!ing ad!ances in science, technology, and
medicine] finding solutions to "ressing en!ironmental "roblems] addressing energy challenges and needs] and ad!ancing
-uality education and e5"anding enrollments in "rimary education% +e are committed to or)ing together to find concrete
ays to e5tend the benefits of these reforms to all our "eo"le% +e ill coo"erate, including through direct contacts
beteen the business communities of our countries, to ad!ance #%$%-'ra(ilian economic, trade, and in!estment relations]
and recogni(ing our res"onsibility as co-chairs of the negotiations, to successfully conclude the negotiations for a Free
Trade Area of the Americas by January 9::H% +e ill or) together to "reser!e and "romote stability and
groth in the global economy% *"ening trade and resisting "rotectionism are essential for meeting
that challenge% +e su""ort an o"en, e-uitable, trans"arent, and rules-based multilateral trading
system, and e ill or) together to strengthen it, es"ecially by or)ing for a successful
com"letion of the +T* negotiations of the Doha De!elo"ment Agenda by January 9::H% Today, e "ledge
to dee"en the #%$%-'ra(ilian "artnershi" in mutually "ositi!e ays, alays sei(ing o""ortunities to ad!ance the di!ersified
interests e ha!e in common, alays see)ing to reconcile differences through dialogue and engagement% *ur
constructi!e "artnershi" is not an end in itself, but a means to all these ends% It is reinforced by, inter
alia, academic, cultural and commercial ties, and increasing )inshi" among our "eo"le% In this "rocess of further
enhancing our bilateral relations, e ha!e decided to gi!e s"ecial attention to the folloing areasE
science and technology, energy, education, health, economic groth, and agriculture% As further
indication of our close ties, #%$% and 'ra(ilian ad!isors ill consult often, maintaining a dialogue on
these matters of mutual interest% +e ha!e also agreed on a frameor) for high-le!el consultations
and Boint or)ing grou"s across the broad s"ectrum of areas in hich e are determined to
institutionali(e our enhanced coo"eration%
-/0E*/+L #1L-0-"S +<<E"0 /EG10S'
-/0E*/+L #1L-0-"S "+/ +/( (1 +<<E"0 0*+(E /EG10-+0-1/S
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%19 //loghryR
7egotiations regarding the FTAA ha!e gained enormous im"ortance in #%$%-'ra(il relations, as
they are "art of a broader "rocess of redefining foreign trade arrangements in hich regionalism
has tended to assume a ne role% In both cases, these negotiations de"end u"on domestic
su""ort "ro!ided by "olitical "arties, business sectors, and labor organi(ations% In the #nited
$tates, the early stage of regional trade tal)s too) "lace during the administration of Aeorge ,%
+% 'ush (34J4-41)] they dee"ened during the to administrations of 'ill ;linton (3441-9::3) and
continue during the "resent administration of Aeorge +% 'ush% In 'ra(il, negotiations first too)
"lace during the go!ernment of ;ollor, continued ith Franco, dee"ened ith the ;ardoso
administrations, and ill conclude during the /ula administration% +hile internal "olitics ha!e
alays been a crucial as"ect of foreign trade "olicies in the #nited $tates, domestic "olitical
in!ol!ement and "ressure regarding trade negotiations in 'ra(il re"resent a !ery recent
"henomenon lin)ed to the consolidation of democracy% 7e!er before ha!e trade negotiations
been so "olitici(ed ithin the 'ra(ilian society-es"ecially those regarding the FTAA%
2/"@ 7US0 *E+( ( 1 / 1 )
B*+,-L -S 0HE <UL"*U7 1< +/. SU""ESS<UL U'S' #1L-". -/-0-+0-4E
-/ L+0-/ +7E*-"+' "1/SUL0+0-1/ 3-0H B*+,-L 1/ 0*+(E -SSUES -S
AE. 01 S1L4-/G E/4-*1/7E/0+L (ES0*U"0-1/ +/( 01 0HE <U0U*E
1< 0HE E"1/17. -/ 0H-S HE7-S#HE*EB"+/C0 -G/1*E 3H+0 0HE.
H+4E 01 S+.DDDD
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%L:-L3 //loghryR
According to 'ra(ilian di"lomats, relations ith the #nited $tates ha!e finally achie!ed M"olitical
maturity%N 'ilateral "olitical communications ha!e become straightforard, and they a!oid
"roblematic areas such as trade dis"utes, hich contaminate the relationshi" as a hole% There
is also a strong "erce"tion among 'ra(ilian officials that "olitical commonalties ha!e e5"anded
e!er since 'ra(ilian democracy consolidated%
#%$% go!ernment "erce"tions are that 'ra(il, li)e the rest of $outh American countries, has made
maBor changes that should contribute to strengthening the relationshi" on both sides% As stated by
a #%$% go!ernment official in 344I, MThe #%$% relationshi" ith $outh America goes far beyond
trade and economics, of course% *ur "olicy in the region aims to )ee" the #nited $tates
economically strong and internationally com"etiti!e, to "romote the "rinci"les of democracy, and
to increase the le!el of regional coo"eration to more easily deal ith transnational threats of
narcotraffic)ing, en!ironmental degradation, and international crime%N L3 &et in the #nited $tates
there is a fre-uent "erce"tion among the "ublic concerned ith hemis"heric affairs that M'ra(il
has a ay to go before necessary reforms are dee"ened and institutionali(ed to the "oint that
they "ro!ide a really firm, substantially irre!ersible guarantee of "ositi!e "erformance in the
future%N L9
An e!aluation of the relations ith 'ra(il as "re"ared by a grou" of e5"erts from the #%$%
;ouncil on Foreign =elations for the current 'ush administration in February 9::3 in hich 'ra(il
as considered Mthe fulcrum of any successful #%$% "olicy initiati!e in $outh America%N L1
=elations ith 'ra(il ere "ercei!ed as essential to influencing the economic and "olitical future
of the hemis"here% This tas) force also ac)noledged that to dee"en understanding beteen the
to countries it ould be necessary to re!ie #%$% "olicy toard 'ra(il so as to Mor) together on
!ital matters such as trade, drugs, and regional security and mo!e thereafter to engage in a high-
le!el sustained and coo"erati!e strategic dialogue ith 'ra(ilian leaders%N L2
Among its most rele!ant suggestions, the re"ort stresses the im"ortance of understanding mutual
differences and it urges the #nited $tates to discard a "olicy of benign neglect toard 'ra(il% The
im"ortance of relations ith 'ra(il as grounded in four criteriaE Meconomic "oer] its central
location ithin $outh America] its status as a trading "artner and the reci"ient of #%$% in!estment]
and its di"lomatic role ithin $outh America and the international agencies%N LH The study also
arned both the #nited $tates and 'ra(il about the ris) of missing the moment to build u" a
"ositi!e agenda% Though trade negotiations ith the #nited $tates could be re"laced by
negotiations ith the 8uro"ean #nion, 'ra(il could not afford to lose "referential access to the
American mar)et% As ell, both countries are "ercei!ed to "lay com"lementary roles in the
"romotion of economic reform and democratic stabilility in $outh America%
2/"@ /UAE 3+* #1( ( 1 / 1 )
relations $revent US/Brailian nuclear &ar
Donald 8% Sc%ul, ;hairman of the Political $cience De"artment at ;le!eland $tate #ni!ersity,
6arch 2555, MThe #nited $tates and /atin AmericaE $ha"ing an 8lusi!e Future,N $trategic
$tudies Institute, %strategicstudiesinstitute%army%mil/Pubs/dis"lay%cfmF"ubIDT13
Put sim"ly, if changes in "olitical leadershi" ere instrumental in redirecting 'ra(ilGs nuclear "rogram toards "eaceful
"ur"oses, future "olitical u"hea!als could still "roduce a re!ersion to "re!ious orientations% ;i!ilian su"remacy is not so
strong that it could not be se"t aay by a cou", es"ecially if the legitimacy of the current democratic e5"eriment ere to
be undermined by economic crisis and groing "o!erty/ine-uality% 7or are ci!ilian leaders necessarily less militaristic or
more committed to democracy than the military% The e5am"le of PeruGs FuBimori comes immediately to mind% ,o
serious a threat might 'ra(il "otentially beF It has been estimated that if the nuclear "lant at Angra dos
=eis (Angra I) ere only "roducing at 1: "ercent ca"acity, it could "roduce fi!e 9:-)iloton ea"ons a year% If
"roduction from other "lants ere included, 'ra(il ould ha!e a ca"ability three times greater than India or
Pa)istan% Furthermore, its defense industry already has a substantial missile "roducing ca"ability%
*n the other hand, the country has a !ery limited ca"acity to "roBect its military "oer !ia air and sealift or to sustain its
forces o!er long distances% And though a 34J1 la authori(es significant military man"oer increases (hich could "lace
'ra(il at a numerical le!el slightly higher than France, Iran and Pa)istan), such groth ill be restricted by a lac) of
economic resources% Indeed, the de!elo"ment of all these military "otentials has been, and ill continue to be, se!erely
constrained by a lac) of money% (+hich is one reason 'ra(il decided to engage in arms control ith Argentina in the first
"lace%) HL In short, a restoration of 'ra(ilian militarism, imbued ith nationalistic ambitions for great "oer
status, is not unthin)able, and such a regime could "resent some fairly serious "roblems% That
go!ernment ould "robably need foreign as ell as domestic enemies to hel" Bustify its e5istence%
*ne ob!ious candidate ould be the #nited $tates, hich ould "resumably be critical of any return to
dictatorial rule% 'eyond this, moreo!er, the s"ectre of a "redatory international community, co!etous of the riches of the
Ama(on, could hel" rally "olitical su""ort to the regime% For years, some 'ra(ilian military officers ha!e
been arning of Mforeign inter!ention%N Indeed, as far bac) as 3443 Aeneral Antenor de $anta ;ru(
Abreu, then chief of the 6ilitary ;ommand of the Ama(on, threatened to transform the region into a
Mne CietnamN if de!elo"ed countries tried to Minternationali(eN the Ama(on% $ubse-uently, in 3441, #%$%-Auyanese
combined military e5ercises near the 'ra(ilian border "ro!o)ed an angry res"onse from many high-ran)ing 'ra(ilian
officers% HI $ince then, of course, #%$%-'ra(ilian relations ha!e im"ro!ed considerably% 7e!ertheless, the basic #%$%/
international concerns o!er the Ama(onKthe threat to the regionGs ecology through burning and deforestation, the
"resence of narcotraffic)ing acti!ities, the Indian -uestion, etc%Kha!e not disa""eared, and some may !ery ell intensify
in the years ahead% At the same time, if the groing trend toards subregional economic grou"ingsKin "articular,
68=;*$#=Kcontinues, it is li)ely to increase com"etition beteen $outhern ;one and 7AFTA countries% 8conomic
conflicts, in turn, may be e5"ected to intensify "olitical differences, and could lead to heightened
"olitico-military ri!alry beteen different blocs or coalitions in the hemis"here% 8!en so, there continue
to be traditional ri!alries and conflicts ithin 68=;*$#=, es"ecially beteen 'ra(il and its neighbors, and these ill
certainly com"licate the grou"Gs e!olution% Among other things, the "ast year itnessed a serious deterioration of relations
beteen 'ra(il and Argentina, the "roduct "artly of the formerGs January 3444 currency de!aluation, hich se!erely
strained economic ties beteen the to countries% In "art, too, these conflicts ere aggra!ated by ArgentinaGs
(unsuccessful) bid to Boin the 7orth Atlantic Treaty *rgani(ation (7AT*), hich 'ra(ilians inter"reted as an attem"t to gain
strategic ad!antage% The u"shot as that relations soured to the e5tent here -uestions ha!e been raised as to the
continued !iability of 68=;*$#= itself% In light of these "roblems, one cannot but onder hat im"act a resurgence of
'ra(ilian authoritarianism, combined ith a "ush for regional hegemonic status, ould ha!e on Argentina, currently a
Mnon-7AT* allyN of the #nited $tates% Finally, closer to home, there is the difficult "roblem of #%$% border
defense% *ne sus"ects that the years ahead ill itness groing "ressure to use De"artment of Defense "ersonnel
and resources to bolster la enforcement agencies "atrolling #%$% frontiers to "re!ent illegal immigration and drug
smuggling% (Indeed, legislation has already been "ro"osed authori(ing the de"loyment of u" to 3:,::: more troo"s on the
$outhest 'order% In late 344J, hoe!er, the bill as reBected by the $enate%) $ince 344:, the military has been engaged
in se!eral thousand o"erations along the frontier, running listening "osts to assist the 'order Patrol in trac)ing drugs and
migrants, building fences and barriers, re"airing roads, and hel"ing la enforcement agencies in counternarcotics
o"erations% &et, notithstanding this aid, ci!ilian agencies continue to be stretched thin% The amount of drugs coming o!er
the border has not been significantly reduced, and la enforcement officials often find themsel!es outgunned and
outmanned by their ad!ersaries% ;onse-uently, there is an increasing tem"tation to loo) to the military for
ansers%
2/"@ +7+,1/ (E<1 #1( ( 1 / 1 )
coo$eration is key to +maon $reservation
US (e$artment of State2 L/9L/9:5?, M8n!ironmental ;oo"eration 'eteen the #nited
$tates and 'ra(il,N htt"E//%state%go!/r/"a/"rs/"s/9::1/934JL%htm
The #nited $tates and 'ra(il enBoy a long, rich history of en!ironmental coo"eration ranging from
management of "ar)s to technical coo"eration on forests, remote sensing, and fire science% +e
ho"e to ma)e that relationshi" e!en stronger in the coming years% +e loo) forard to discussing
our many bilateral en!ironmental interests during a high-le!el ;ommon Agenda on the
8n!ironment meeting later this year in 'rasilia, and to further strengthening our already strong
"artnershi" to "rotect and manage im"ortant natural resources% The #%$% and 'ra(il "lan to
encourage the use of reneable energy and energy efficiency through or)sho"s, information
e5changes, technical assistance, and training% *ur recent bilateral energy discussions hel"ed
strengthen our Boint commitment to clean energy efforts, hile a ne energy strategy de!elo"ed
by the #%$% Agency for International De!elo"ment (#$AID) holds the "otential for additional
bilateral collaboration ith 7A*s and the "ri!ate sector% +or)ing together, e ha!e installed
hybrid-reneable !illage "oer systems in the Ama(on, and e are beginning to build
"artnershi"s ith uni!ersities to loo) at biomass resources and de!elo" mar)ets for clean energy%
*fficials of the state of $\o Paulo are or)ing ith the #%$% to "romote technologies that can
mitigate local air -uality "roblems and reduce greenhouse gas emissions% The #%$% and 'ra(il
ho"e to collaborate closely to "romote sustainable forest management, "articularly in the area of
reduced im"act logging% #$AID "artners loo) forard to or)ing ith 'ra(il to de!elo" forest
management trac)ing technologies in!ol!ing fire-detecting satellites o"erated by the #%$%
7ational *ceanic and Atmos"heric Administration (7*AA), Alobal Positioning $ystems (AP$) for
forest management, modeling of logging damage in disturbed forests, and /andsat-based ma"s
reflecting com"liance ith 'ra(il.s Forest ;ode% A consortium of 'ra(il-based institutions, together
ith #$AID and the #%$% Forest $er!ice, ha!e created a ne ?7atural 8cosystems $ustained?
"rogram for forest management in 'ra(il that includes mar)eting of en!ironmental goods and
ser!ices and landsca"e-le!el "lanning and "olicy% 'ra(il and the #%$% no coordinate closely on
initiati!es such as satellite technology to detect forest fires% ;onser!ation of migratory birds is
another )ey issue for coo"eration% The #%$% loo)s forard to or)ing ith 'ra(il, and more
broadly ith the region, in a or)sho" this *ctober to begin de!elo"ing a frameor) for a
+estern ,emis"here strategy to conser!e migratory birds - a res"onse to the $ummit of the
Americas in 9::3% =ecogni(ing 'ra(il.s critical role in regional en!ironmental issues across
$outh America, the #%$% De"artment of $tate established one of the first of tel!e regional
en!ironmental ?,ub? offices around the orld at the #%$% 8mbassy in 'rasilia in 3444%
+/(2 environmental )estruction causes eEtinction
Paul 3arner, American #ni!ersity, De"t of International Politics and Foreign Policy, August,
Politics and /ife $ciences, 1FF6, " 3II
6assi!e e5tinction of s"ecies is dangerous, then, because one cannot "redict hich s"ecies are
e5"endable to the system as a hole% As Phili" ,oose remar)s, ?Plants and animals cannot tell
us hat they mean to each other%? *ne can ne!er be sure hich s"ecies holds u" fundamental
biological relationshi"s in the "lanetary ecosystem% And, because remo!ing s"ecies is an
irre!ersible act, it may be too late to sa!e the system after the e5tinction of )ey "lants or animals%
According to the #%$% 7ational =esearch ;ouncil, ?The ramifications of an ecological change of
this magnitude P!ast e5tinction of s"eciesR are so far reaching that no one on earth ill esca"e
them%? Trifling ith the ?li!es? of s"ecies is li)e "laying =ussian roulette, ith our collecti!e future
as the sta)es%
+7+,1/ ! *EL+0-1/S -/0E*/+LS ( 1 / 1 )
Goo) relations kee$ satellite s%aring %ig% ! key to solve )estruction of t%e
+maon
,ugh Biggar Dec 1, 255? (6edia Associate at Defender of +ildlife
htt"E//%stanford%edu/de"t/nes/"r/:1/agulogging332%html)
The Ama(on is the orld.s largest rain forest and home to an untold number of s"ecies and
natural resources% It also "ro!ides a !ital means for remo!ing an im"ortant greenhouse gas from
the atmos"here% All of this is in danger, as the Ama(on is ra"idly shrin)ing% Areg Asner, a faculty
scientist ith the ;arnegie Institution at $tanford, is or)ing ith a multinational team to re!erse
this trend% #sing both high-tech and lo-tech tools, the researchers ho"e to safeguard the
Ama(on from one of its biggest threats -- ram"ant logging by small o"erators ho essentially
"oach timber% In 'ra(il, for e5am"le, loggers often ta)e "atches of trees ithout first obtaining
"ermits from that country.s en!ironmental "rotection agency% +hile the "ractice, )non as
selecti!e logging, may be sustainable, it has dire conse-uences% Asner ill "resent his team.s
findings Dec% 3: and 33 at this year.s $an Francisco meeting of the American Aeo"hysical #nion,
an international scientific society ith more than 1H,::: members dedicated to ad!ancing the
understanding of the 8arth and its en!ironment% ?P$electi!e loggingR acts li)e a net -- hen you
ta)e don one tree, you end u" ta)ing fi!e to 9: other trees around it,? as the trees are often
intertined or connected by !ines, said Asner, an assistant "rofessor, by courtesy, in the $tanford
De"artment of Aeological and 8n!ironmental $ciences% *nly a small "ortion of this felled ood
becomes har!ested timber] the rest turns to aste% $electi!e logging dominates current
landsca"e use in 'ra(il and is also among the biggest threats to the global en!ironment% At the
same time, "eo"le in!ol!ed in the timbering "rocess -- clearing land and remo!ing ood ith
tractors -- further denude the landsca"e% That landsca"e of destruction attracts ranchers and
farmers, ho mo!e into the nely o"ened s"ace and fre-uently e5"and it, thereby accelerating
the rate of deforestation% 'y burning forest to clear it, they release carbon into the atmos"here%
These acti!ities slo reforestation% ?For the first time, all of this is being obser!ed by satellite,?
said Asner% ,e and his team -- including a 'ra(ilian nongo!ernmental organi(ation, 'ra(il.s
en!ironmental "rotection agency, 7A$A and the #%$% Forest $er!ice ha!e s"ent fi!e years
de!elo"ing a remote-sensing system for measuring timber har!ests and deforestation% $atellite
images focus on bio"hysical and biochemical changes in the forest cano"y and "ro!ide a broad
"icture of ho the Ama(on is being thinned% The information is then shared ith the
en!ironmental "rotection agency to hel" it better target illegal loggers% ?It "ro!ides e5traordinary
detail of the thinning of the Ama(on basin,? Asner said% Asner and his team are or)ing against
time as the rate of the Ama(on rain forest.s disa""earance -uic)ens% Annually, roughly 3H,:::
s-uare )ilometers of forest are lost to clear cutting and cattle "asturing alone < an amount of
territory the si(e of the state of 6assachusetts% Another I,::: to 3H,::: s-uare )ilometers is lost
to timber har!esting, resulting in u" to 1:,::: s-uare )ilometers of forest degradation each year%
?This is much larger than "re!iously thought,? says Asner% Forest isn.t the only thing that.s lost%
The region.s !ast arehouse of natural resources is being stri""ed before it has been fully
audited% $o far, scientists estimate its trees and other "lants "ro!ide beteen 9: to H: "ercent of
the orld.s o5ygen as ell as ingredients !ital to the manufacture of medicine and other "roducts%
The Ama(on is also home to almost one-third of the orld.s s"ecies% All of this is in danger, and
in ays that could ha!e global ramifications, Asner said%
+7+,1/ ! -7#+"0 EG0' ( 1 / 2 )
US/Brail coo$eration is key to t%e +maon an) %uman survival
"ouncil on Hemis$%eric +ffairs2 ,am"den 6acbeth, Phili" 6orro, and Jose"h Ta!es,
H/9H/255H, MAma(on =ainforest, 'arbados and ,aiti and the 'olton 7omination,N
htt"E//%coha%org/9::H/:H/ama(on-rainforest-barbados-and-haiti-and-the-bolton-nomination/
7es re"orts on 6ay 34 announced that more than 3:,::: s-uare miles of the Ama(on rainforest
had been deforested o!er the last year ^ an area the si(e of 6assachusetts% 7ot only is the
Ama(on rainforest an area of breathta)ing beauty and un"aralleled biodi!ersity, through the
"rocess of "hotosynthesis it also ensures the sur!i!al of the human race, ith its billions of trees
"roducing much of the orldGs su""ly of o5ygen% +hile ultimately 'ra(ilGs "rogressi!e "resident,
/ui( InDcio M/ulaNda $il!a, bears the brunt of this fiasco, the #%$% and 8uro"ean nations also
generously share in the res"onsibility for the destruction of !ast saths of the countryGs rainforest%
They ha!e "romoted the neo-liberal economic "olices that "ersuaded 'ra(il to rely on the
strength of its constantly e5"anding agricultural sector to "ay don its suffocating international
debt% As a result, loggers ha!e felled hundreds of thousands of hectares of trees and farmers
ha!e cleared !ast trac)s of the rainforest to gro cro"s% Just as as the case under former
President ,enri-ue ;ardosa, the negati!e re"ercussions hich result from this arboreal
homicide, ere relati!ely mild because ^ des"ite "residential declarations to the contrary ^
'ra(ilGs en!ironmental "olices under /ula ha!e been much more bar) than bite% 'rasilia, under
the M"eo"leGs "residentN has failed to fulfill its commitment to "re!ent further destruction of the
Ama(on rainforest as "romised last year hen /ula announced a Y32: million cam"aign to
"reser!e and ensure better "olicing of the fragile habitat% ,oe!er, e5ternal economic factors
also ha!e certainly "layed a role in "ersuading the go!ernment to turn a blind eye to the
desecration of its on rainforest% It is critical to our common "lanetGs sur!i!al that the #%$% and the
8# de!elo" a com"rehensi!e "lan ith teeth, in coo"eration ith 'ra(il, in order to "ro!ide the
financial incenti!es necessary to "reser!e the rainforest, hile also strengthening 'ra(ilGs
com"etiti!eness in the global economy% The #%$% and the 8# ould be ise to acce"t this
res"onsibility in order to tem"er the dangerous e5tremes in!ol!ed in their "ush for globali(ation
and the ma5imi(ation of free trade that threatens the !ery integrity of the en!ironment, if not the
!ery sur!i!al of the human race%
+7+,1/ ! -7#+"0 EG0' ( 2 / 2 )
+maon )estruction &ill cause $lanetary eEtinction
Da!id 0akacs FI2 Instructor in De"artment of 8arth $ystems $cience and Policy at ;alifornia
$tate-6onterey 'ay% Philoso"hies of Paradise,
htt"E//%dhushara%com/boo)/di!ersit/restor/ta)acs%htm
As e might e5"ect, ecologists and conser!ation biologists "roclaim biodi!ersity.s ecological
!alue% These ecological arguments can be inter"reted as human-!alue-centered and selfish or
nonhuman-!alue-centered and unselfish, or some "ermutation of these% ?8cosystem ser!ices?
may ha!e !alue of and for themsel!es-in other ords, it may be argued that )ee"ing ecosystems
healthy and functioning has !alue a"art from any human !aluer or any !alue humans may obtain
from them% +e may thus !alue biodi!ersity because e !alue the continued healthy functioning
of ecosystems as such, regardless of any ser!ices biodi!ersity "erforms for us% 6ore often,
hoe!er, humans are said to benefit from such ecosystem ser!ices% ,alf a century ago, Aldo
/eo"old arnedE ?=ecent disco!eries in mineral and !itamin nutrition re!eal unsus"ected
de"endencies in the u"-circuitE incredibly minute -uantities of certain substances determine the
!alue of soils to "lants, of "lants to animals% +hat of the don-circuitF +hat of the !anishing
s"ecies, the "reser!ation of hich e no regard as an esthetic lu5ury% They hel"ed build the
soil] in hat unsus"ected ays may they be essential to its maintenanceF? 6ore recently, Jane
/ubchenco feels !ery strongly that "eo"le are in fact much more de"endent on ecosystem
ser!ices that are "ro!ided by both managed and unmanaged ecosystems than is generally
"ercei!ed to be the case% $o I thin) it.s sheer folly for us to act in ays that are undermining the
ability of both managed and unmanaged ecosystems to "ro!ide these ser!ices that e.re de"en
dent on% And that e.re doing that more and more as e "ollute and destroy habitats, or alter
habitats in one fashion or another% And I guess the bottom line is that e.re changing the en!ironment faster than our
ability to understand the conse-uences of ho e.re changing it%? 6ost "redictions of eco-doom are "redicated on this
argument, and many are stated in much more dramatic terms than those /ubchenco em"loys% As the argument runs, a
myriad of organisms, es"ecially ?little things,? com"rise ecosystems that "ro!ide countless ser!ices that )ee" the 8arth.s
biotic and abiotic "rocesses u" and running%. According to $ouls, ?6any, if not all, ecological "rocesses ha!e thresholds
belo and abo!e hich they become discontinuous, chaotic, or sus"ended%? 'iodi!ersity may regulate these "rocesses]
among its many talents, biodi!ersity is said to create soil and maintain its fertility, control global climate, inhibit agricultural
"ests, maintain atmos"heric gas balances, "rocess organic astes, "ollinate cro"s and floers, and recycle nutrients%.
;onfusion in this line of argumentation ties bac) into hy the conce"t of biodi!ersity has risen to "rominence% =emember
that biologists ha!e scant understanding of the roles that s"ecies or "o"ulations "lay in maintaining ecosystems% In
inter!ies, /o!eBoy, Fal), and =ay confessed that you can stri" aay many s"ecies from an ecosystem ithout loss of
ecosystem function% 8hrlich "oints out that by the time a s"ecies is endangered, it has "robably sto""ed "laying an
im"ortant role in )ee"ing the system functioning anyay%? Furthermore, it is not clear hether e should focus on s"ecies
as functional cogs in the ecosystem heel, or hether ecological ser!ices are emergent "ro"erties of ecosystems
themsel!es% +ith the biodi!ersity conce"t, these dilemmas become nearly moot% 'iodi!ersity embraces lists of s"ecies,
lists of ecosystems, the interactions of s"ecies ithin ecosystems, and the "rocesses that s"ecies may maintain or
control% +hen arguing on behalf of bio-di!ersity, one need not focus on the s"ecifics-s"ecifically, the s"ecifics of hat e
don.t )no% It is enough to e5"licate some of the functions that )ee" ecosystems running, or that ecosystems "ro!ide for
us, and then e5tra"olate to the dangers associated ith declining biodi!ersity% Peter =a!en bases his thin)ing on
/eo"old.s obser!ation ?To )ee" e!ery cog and heel is the first "recaution of intelligent tin)ering?E ?In e!ery sense, in the
sense of communities that ill "reser!e soil, "romote local climate, )ee" the atmos"here, "reser!e ater, and e!ery thing
else, the first rule of being able to "ut together communities ell or ha!e the orld go on functioning ell, or to )ee"
climates as they are, or to retard disease, to "roduce "roducts e ant sustainably, be cause, after all, "lants, algae, and
"hotosynthetic bacteria are the only de!ice e ha!e to ca"ture energy from the sun effecti!ely-in all those senses, and in
the sense that e.re losing the "arts so ra"idly, I consider the loss of biological di!ersity to be the
most serious "roblem that e ha!e-far more serious than global climate change or stratos"heric
o(one de"letion, or anything else%? ?,abitat destruction and con!ersion are eliminating s"ecies
at such a frightening "ace that e5tinction of many contem"orary s"ecies and the systems they
li!e in and su""ort %%% may lead to ecological disaster and se!ere alteration of the e!olutionary
"rocess,? Terry 8rin rites%? And 8% :% +ilson notesE ?The -uestion I am as)ed most fre-uently
about the di!ersity of lifeE if enough s"ecies are e5tinguished, ill the ecosystem colla"se, and
ill the e5tinction of most other s"ecies follo soon afterardF The only anser anyone can gi!e
isE "ossibly% 'y the time e find out, hoe!er, it might be too late% *ne "lanet, one e5"eriment%??
$o biodi!ersity )ee"s the orld running% It has !alue in and for itself, as ell as for us% =a!en,
8rin, and +ilson oblige us to thin) about the !alue of biodi!ersity for our on li!es% The 8hrlichs.
ri!et-"o""er tro"e ma)es this same "oint] by eliminating ri!ets, e "lay =ussian roulette ith
global ecology and human futuresE ?It is li)ely that destruction of the rich com"le5 of s"ecies in
the Ama(on basin could trigger ra"id changes in global climate "atterns% Agriculture remains
hea!ily de"endent on stable climate, and human beings remain hea!ily de"endent on food% 'y
the end of the century the e5tinction of "erha"s a million s"ecies in the Ama(on basin could ha!e
entrained famines in hich a billion human beings "erished% And if our s"ecies is !ery unluc)y,
the famines could lead to a thermonuclear ar, hich could e5tinguish ci!ili(ation%??
2/"@ E"1/ -7#+"0 #1( ( 1 / 1 )
*elations are key t%e Brailian economy
Peter Hakim, President- Inter-American Dialogue, Jan/Feb 2556, Foreign Affairs,
htt"E//%foreignaffairs%org/9::2:3:3faessayJ1333/"eter-ha)im/the-reluctant-"artner%html
+ashington needs 'rasilia.s coo"eration to ma)e "rogress on critical regional issues, such as the
Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), Cene(uela.s orsening "olitical confrontation, and
;olombia.s criminal !iolence and guerrilla arfare% 'ra(il.s !oice also carries eight on broader
international issues such as global trade negotiations and the struggle against AID$% Just as
surely, 'ra(il needs #%$% coo"eration to ad!ance its domestic and international agendas,
"articularly the central challenge of economic groth, hich re-uires de"endable access to #%$%
mar)ets, ca"ital, and technology% 'ra(il needs the #nited $tates to ha!e any chance of
energi(ing its long-stagnant economy, e5"anding Bob o""ortunities, and accelerating social
de!elo"ment% An ad!ersarial relationshi" ould be e5tremely damaging to #%$% "olicy and
interests in /atin America, more so than e!er gi!en the region.s unsettled "olitics and uneasy
relations ith the #nited $tates%
+/(2 Brailian economic colla$se &oul) )estroy t%e US economy
Peter Hakim, President of Inter America Dialogue, 39/1:/255>, M/atin AmericaE the ne5t #%$%
PresidentGs agenda,N Inter America Dialogue, htt"E//%thedialogue%org/PublicationFiles/Peter
[9:,a)im[9:-[9:Areat[9:Decisions[9:9::J%"df
'y any -uantitati!e measure, hat ha""ens elsehere in /atin America is less im"ortant to the
#%$% The rest of the region is not central to #%$% security] it is neither a source of nor a target for
international terrorism% 8conomic relations ith $outh and ;entral America are e5"anding, but
they are modest com"ared to 6e5ico% All of $outh AmericaGs trade ith the #%$%, including the oil
from Cene(u- ela, amounts only to about 2:[ of #%$% commerce ith 6e5ico alone% Trade ith
'ra(il, the second-largest #%$% "artner in /atin America, accounts for little more than 3[ of #%$%
trade orldide% $till, an economic crisis in 'ra(il, the eighth-largest economy in the orld, ould
ha!e destructi!e s"illo!er effects across the region, hich could im"ortantly damage the #%$%
economy% And 'ra(il is a country that could become much more eco- nomically conse-uential to
the #%$%K if it sustains a healthy rate of groth and continues to o"en its economy%
+/(2 EEtinction
/t% ;ol, Tom Bear)en, PhD 7uclear 8ngineering, A"ril 9H, 2555,
htt"E//%cheniere%org/corres"ondence/:29H::[9:-[9:modified%htm
Just "rior to the terrible colla"se of the +orld economy, ith the crumbling ell underay and
rising, it is ine!itable that some of the PmdR ea"ons of mass destruction ill be used by one or
more nations on others% An interesting result then---as all the old strategic studies used to sho---
is that e!eryone ill fire e!erything as fast as "ossible against their "ercei!ed enemies% The
reason is sim"leE +hen the mass destruction ea"ons are unleashed at all, the only chance a
nation has to sur!i!e is to des"erately try to destroy its "ercei!ed enemies before they destroy it%
$o there ill eru"t a s"asmodic unleashing of the long range missiles, nuclear arsenals, and
biological arfare arsenals of the nations as they feel the economic colla"se, "o!erty,
death, misery, etc% a bit earlier% The ensuing holocaust is certain to immediately dra in the maBor
nations also, and literally a hell on earth ill result% In short, e ill get the great Armageddon e
ha!e been fearing since the ad!ent of the nuclear genie% =ight no, my "ersonal estimate is that
e ha!e about a 44[ chance of that scenario or some modified !ersion of it, resulting%
2/"@ /#0 #1( ( 1 / 2 )
Strong relations are crucial to $revent Brailian nucleariation'
;laudia #atterson is a ;*,A =esearch Associate, 39/32/2556, MFor 7uclear 'ra(il, ItGs Aood to ,a!e Friends in
,igh Places,N htt"E//%coha%org/9::2/39/32/for-nuclear-bra(il-it[89[J:[44s-good-to-ha!e-friends-in-high-"laces/)
Secrecy shrouding Brazils nuclear capabilities, suspected technological advances and provocative
statements made by Luiz Incio Lula da Silva during his presidential campaign alarmed U.S. nuclear control advocates. But, according to
Secretary o State !olin "o#ell, uture nuclear #eapons prolieration by Brasilia no longer is a distinct possibility. !ould $aiti be the missing ingredient%
&he Bush administration no# vehemently denies accusations by notable critics, li'e the (ashington "ost, #hich )uestioned #hy Brazil eels a need to hide some o its nuclear acilities rom inspection. Some also
speculate that Secretary "o#ells readiness to accept Brasilias intentions may be a paybac' or Lulas rescuing the
U.S. rom its embarrassingly contradictory $aiti policy, by agreeing to head the U* peace'eeping mission in the country.
&he recent strengthening o U.S.+Brazilian relations may be lin'ed to Brasilias desire to gain more prestige
in the hemisphere and the #orld by becoming a permanent member o the United *ations Security !ouncil,
or #hich it #ill no# li'ely receive U.S. bac'ing.
In the last )uarter century, Brazil has engaged in bac'+door, even covert business arrangements to ac)uire nuclear
technology on the #orld mar'et by increasing its conventional #eapons trade #ith rogue nations and
evading inspections by international nuclear #eapons authorities. In the ,-./s, Brazil #as a United *ations problem child due to its lirtation #ith
nuclear prolieration. *o#, ho#ever, the country has utilized its increasing diplomatic leverage to negotiate a deal that appeases the International 0tomic 1nergy 0gency 2I0103
#ithout e4posing its uni)ue nuclear technology that Brazilian 5oreign 6inister !elso 0morim claims the country possesses,
and that (ashington believes is only 7producing enriched uranium or paciic purposes.8 &he e4act reason or (ashingtons recent strong support o Brazil, despite its past turbulent relationship #ith the emerging
South 0merican giant, is not ully clear, but Brasilias desire or a greater role in the global community is no doubt a contributing actor as is (ashingtons relative deerence to the hemispheres candidate or ma9or
po#er status. 1ven though lately Brazil has cost the (hite $ouse a good deal o grie over trade+related issues,
and in spite o U.S. accusations over Brazils nuclear intent and its past disputes #ith (ashington over the
issue, the act that Lula agreed to head the U* peace'eeping mission in $aiti and supply over ,,/// troops to the eorts:by ar the largest contingent:has #on the Brazilian leader a heavy draught o amnesia
on the nuclear ront. !ritics #ould say that in this respect, Lula entered into a humiliating arraignment #ith ;r. 5austus.
(hether or not Brazil currently has the capabilities to develop nuclear #eapons is un'no#n. &he I010 said, at the conclusion o its investigation, that a report on Brazils recent nuclear developments #ould be ready
by the end o *ovember, but no report as o yet has been released.
0 <uestionable $istory
;uring Brazils ,-=>+,-.? era o military rule, episodic remar's, usually made o the record by both
military and civilian igures, indicated that Brazil #as attempting to develop nuclear technology or
military purposes. In ,-@?, the Brazilian military government abandoned an U*+approved nuclear inormation and technology sharing agreement #ith the U.S. in order to receive nuclear
technology rom (est Aermany, #hich allo#ed or more Brazilian+made components to be incorporated in the nuclear po#er plants it #as installing at the time. 0lthough (est Aermany #as a *0&B ally,
(ashington #as less than enthusiastic over the arrangement. "rior to ,-@?, Brazils nuclear technology #as
used solely to produce nuclear energy, but #hen Brazil began its association #ith the (est Aerman
Crat#er' Union:a Siemens ailiate that did not re)uire I010 saeguards until U.S. pressure orced the company to adopt them:the South 0merican country
began a secret program to conceivably develop an atomic device, #hich in ,-.@, observers oresa# as occurring by D///.
In addition to its nuclear program, Brazil #as a ma9or conventional arms e4porter during the ,-./s.
Because Brasilia #as indiscriminate in see'ing out clients or its military products, the country #as
arguably the #orlds leading arms trader to human rights violators and rogue nations during this period. In ,-.>,
Brazils arms sales hovered around EF billion, #hich represented a =// percent increase over ,-./. 0long #ith (est Aerman nuclear technology,
(ashington eared the ramiications o Brazils possible e4porting o nuclear #eapons to countries li'e
Libya and Ira), both signiicant customers o Brazils conventional arms trade. 1ven ater the military government stepped do#n in ,-.?
and Brazil began the transition to#ards democracy, the selling o #eapons to Ira) continued.
Gecent speeches by "resident Luiz Incio Lula da Silva are reminiscent o the countrys past dar' days. ;uring his D//D campaign, he e4pressed his unhappiness over the *on+
"rolieration &reaty 2*"&3, #hich lists Brazil as one o the #orlds,.D non+nuclear #eapon states 2non+*(S3. Spea'ing in his
man+o+the+people guise, Lula as'ed, 7I someone as's me to disarm and 'eep a slingshot #hile he comes at me #ith a cannon, #hat good does that do%8 0s presidential candidate, Lula e4plained ho# developing
countries #ho are signatories o the *"& are disadvantaged by its conditions. (hereas *(S are allo#ed to 'eep the nuclear technology they already possess, non+nuclear countries are prohibited rom developing
technology that covertly could be used in nuclear #eapons programs, leaving them, in Lulas #ords, holding a slingshot and loo'ing do#n the barrel o a cannon.
Is Brazil $iding Something%
;uring Lulas campaign, a number o members o the U.S. !ongress #rote to "resident Bush 7to e4press HtheirI concern regarding 6r. Luiz Incio Lula da Silva J and his recent public statement criticizing Brazils
adherence to the &reaty on the *on+"rolieration o *uclear (eapons 2*"&3.8 &he U.S. legislators concluded by re)uesting that the president
direct the State ;epartment to investigate the 7potentially serious national security matter8 developing in
Brazil. &he Bush administration chose to ignore the letter, deciding instead to initiate a ne# diplomatic relationship #ith Lula centering on Brazils decision to
lead the U* mission to $aiti.
Gene#ed suspicion about the nature o Brasilias nuclear aspirations arose in D//F #hen the Brazilian president reused to allo# a comprehensive I010 inspection o the Gesende nuclear acility. Lula said at the time
that the denial #as merely to protect his governments coveted technological innovations rom thet by outsiders, claiming that these acilities #ill enrich uranium more eiciently and #ill operate longer and more
economically than other plants. In a *ovember ,@ report by *ational "ublic Gadios 6orning 1dition, a number o specialists denied that Brazil had the
means to develop its o#n advanced enriching technology. 5urthermore, nuclear e4perts li'e $enry So'ols'i, director o the *on+prolieration "olicy
1ducation !enter, believe that Brasilia may have received its centriuge rom the blac' mar'et and may #ant to conceal
this. $o#ever, Brazilian nuclear scientists stand by their claim that their centriuge is more technologically
advanced than any other currently available, despite #ithering international s'epticism that it is even Brazilian+made.
Brazil is ;einitely $iding Something
In Bctober, ater several months o negotiations, Brazils 6inistry o Science and &echnology inally reached an accord #ith the
I010 to allo# or complete inspection o the countrys nuclear acilities, #ith the e4ception o the Gesende
"lant centriuge. &he plant at Gesende enriches uranium that the 6inistry says uels Brazils t#o nuclear po#er plants, #hich together provide >.F percent o the countrys electricity. (hile
Brazil does mine uranium, it is also home to an established reserve o oil and natural gas. &hese traditional
uels are providing an increasingly reliable source or much o Brazils energy needs instead o the
interrupted po#er produced by Brazils irst nuclear plant, the long+troubled 0ngra I, or 75irely.8 ;espite the )uestionable virtues o Brazils alleged ne#
type o centriuge, the I010 and Lula #ere able to agree on a plan that allo#ed inspectors to chec' the pipes leading into and out o the centriuge, but not the acility itsel.
Beore I010 inspectors arrived in Brazil, Secretary o State !olin "o#ell visited "resident Lula and 5oreign 6inister 0morim. In the meeting, "o#ell announced that they 7tal'ed
about things having to do #ith the I010, the nuclear issue that has come up in the course o the day. 0nd I
reairmed to the "resident and to the 6inister that the United States has absolutely no concerns about Brazil doing anything #ith its
nuclear program e4cept developing po#er in a most controlled, responsible manner.8 Upon his return to the United States, "o#ell
reiterated thatK 7(e 'no# or sure that Brazil is not thin'ing about nuclear #eapons in any sense.8 In its desire to become a permanent member o the U* Security !ouncil, Brasilia seems to
have #on the avor o the United States #ith only limited 'o#to#ing to the Bush administration through its
#elcomed role in leading the U* mission to $aiti.
2/"@ /#0 #1( ( 2 / 2 )
+/(2 0%at )estroys non$roliferation com$letely'
'rad *o8erts, 1FFF, =esearcher S Institute for Defense Analysis, =esearch $taff, Institute for
Defense Analysis, ;hair =esearch Ad!isory ;ouncil for the ;hemical and 'iological Arms ;ontrol
Institute, The 7on"roliferation =e!ie, Fall, htt"E//cns%miis%edu/"ubs/n"r/!ol:L/L2/robertL2%"df
*ne category consists of states ith the ability but not the ill to ac-uire ea"ons of mass
destruction or to engage in arms races ith neighbors% The latent ca"abilities of these states
should be !ery much in the mind of the "olicyma)er% All ha!e une5"loited 7'; ea"ons
ca"abilities% Among these are many Mre"entant "roliferantsN (in $andy $"ectorGs term) that ha!e
abandoned strategic ea"ons or their de!elo"ment "rograms (e%g%, $outh Africa, Argentina,
'ra(il, #)raine, 'elarus, and _@a(a)hstan)%These countries are rightly a focus of "roliferation
concern for a number of reasons% *nly one is the ease ith hich disinterest might again become
interest% 6any recei!e transfers of militarily sensiti!e technology, and some are conduits for
further trade% These states are also essential to the "romulgation of international norms about
ea"ons and ar and the functioning of multilateral regimes reflecting those norms% +ithout their
"artici"ation in the effort to combat "roliferation, the res"onse to "roliferation ill be limited to a
fe countries, mostly those of the de!elo"ed orld, ith deleterious conse-uences%
+/(2 #roliferation causes eEtinction ! nuclear arms races an)
miscalculate) nuclear &ar'
Utgoff2 2552 (De"uty Director of the $trategy Forces, and =esources Di!ision of the Institute
for Defense Analyses, Cictor, MProliferation, 6issile Defence, and American Ambitions,N $ur!i!al,
Colume 22, 7umber 9, $ummer)
In sum, ides"read "roliferation is li)ely to lead to an occasional shoot-out ith nuclear ea"ons,
and that such shoot-outs ill ha!e a substantial "robability of escalating to the ma5imum
destruction "ossible ith the ea"ons at hand% #nless nuclear "roliferation is sto""ed, e are
headed toard a orld that ill mirror the American +ild +est of the, late 3J::s% +ith most, if not
all, nations earing nuclear .si5-shooters. on their hi"s, the orld may e!en be a more "olite
"lace than it is today, but e!ery once in a hile e ill all gather on a hill to bury the bodies of
dead cities or e!en hole nations
+2@ "1/SUL0 J /1*7+L 7E+/S (GE/E*+L) ( 1 / 2 )
-ts not normal means ! t%e "# is key to restore consultation frame&ork'
,enry Aissinger 6ay L, 2551 (Former 7ational $ecurity Ad!iser under 7i5on and Ford $an
Diego #nion-Tribune)
A ?s"ecial relationshi"? beteen the #nited $tates and 'ra(il emerged in the Americas not unli)e
that "racticed by the #nited $tates ith 'ritain in 8uro"e after +orld +ar II% A 'ra(ilian di!ision
fought in Italy at our side in +orld +ar II] 'ra(ilian troo"s Boined #%$% forces in the Dominican
=e"ublic in 34LH% As late as the "residency of Aerald Ford, the #nited $tates formally accorded
'ra(il a s"ecial consultati!e status% The relationshi" began to atro"hy soon afterard% In the
#nited $tates, there as concern about the military go!ernment then ruling in 'ra(il] in 'ra(il,
irritation mounted regarding #%$% trade legislation considered "rotectionist% +hile the concerns
about 'ra(il.s domestic circumstances e!a"orated ith the restoration of democracy in the 34J:s,
the economic disagreements intensified as 'ra(il.s economy gathered momentum% 'ra(ilian
officials fre-uently em"hasi(e that FTAA ill "ro!ide relati!ely fe benefits to 'ra(il.s agricultural
sector so long as the #nited $tates farm-su""ort "rograms confer undue ad!antages to #%$%
domestic "roducers% Finally, the FTAA ould im"ly the dismantling or, at a minimum, significant
reduction of tariff barriers that 'ra(il has set u" to nurture manufacturing and high-tech
industries% This does not sit ell ith some of 'ra(il.s leading industrialists% In the light of these
contro!ersies, the FTAA is "ercei!ed by many in 'ra(il as designed for the benefit of the #nited
$tates] concerns about en!ironmental conditions are inter"reted as a subterfuge for diminishing
'ra(ilian so!ereignty, hile #%$% antidum"ing "olicies and labor standards are castigated as
"rete5ts for "rotectionism% Therefore, 'ra(il has a""arently decided that the !agaries of #%$%
domestic and international "olitics "rohibit, and 'ra(il.s groing strength no longer re-uires, a
s"ecial status in essence bestoed by the #nited $tates% 'ra(il henceforth see)s to rely on the
!ibrancy of its economy, the si(e of its "o"ulation and the "artners it is able to enlist in 6ercosur
to forge a dominant "osition in /atin America% As 'ra(il emerges as one of the maBor economic
and "olitical countries of the 93st century, it has concentrated on sloing don the FTAA in order
to solidify 6ercosur] on binding Argentina, Paraguay and #ruguay to its conce"tion of /atin
America.s future] and on obliging the #nited $tates to deal ith a regional bloc rather than ith
indi!idual countries% And beyond the Atlantic, 8uro"e bec)ons ith a com"arable seduction%
*n a !isit to /atin America in 6arch 344I, French President Jac-ues ;hirac identified the future
of /atin America not ith the ?north,? meaning 7AFTA and the #nited $tates, but ith 8uro"e%
6ercosur could orient itself as a distinct entity toard 8uro"e and in institutional ri!alry ith
7AFTA and the #nited $tates% This ould not be sim"ly a setbac) to #%$% economic "ros"ects in
a mar)et of 2:: million "eo"le, accounting for 9: "ercent of its o!erseas trade% Abo!e all, it
challenges the #nited $tates. historic "osition in the hemis"here and its as"iration for a orld
order based on a groing community of democracies in the Americas% 'oth sides should
mount maBor efforts to a!oid this looming contest% The #nited $tates should ma)e it a national
"riority to restore the traditional intimacy beteen the to countries% It needs to mo!e its dealings
ith 'ra(il to the highest le!els of its go!ernment and to dis"lay greater sensiti!ity to the "ride
and dignity of a society on the !erge of becoming a maBor "oer% This also re-uires a
commitment to resol!e the bitter trade dis"utes o!er 'ra(ilian sugar, citrus and steel e5"orts%
+2@ "1/SUL0 J /1*7+L 7E+/S (GE/E*+L) ( 2 / 2 )
"onsultation frame&ork is )ea) ! "# is key to restore it
,enry Aissinger, 6ay L, 2551 (Former 7ational $ecurity Ad!iser under 7i5on and Ford, $an
Diego #nion-Tribune)
A ?s"ecial relationshi"? beteen the #nited $tates and 'ra(il emerged in the Americas not unli)e
that "racticed by the #nited $tates ith 'ritain in 8uro"e after +orld +ar II% A 'ra(ilian di!ision
fought in Italy at our side in +orld +ar II] 'ra(ilian troo"s Boined #%$% forces in the Dominican
=e"ublic in 34LH% As late as the "residency of Aerald Ford, the #nited $tates formally accorded
'ra(il a s"ecial consultati!e status% The relationshi" began to atro"hy soon afterard% In the
#nited $tates, there as concern about the military go!ernment then ruling in 'ra(il] in 'ra(il,
irritation mounted regarding #%$% trade legislation considered "rotectionist% +hile the concerns
about 'ra(il.s domestic circumstances e!a"orated ith the restoration of democracy in the 34J:s,
the economic disagreements intensified as 'ra(il.s economy gathered momentum% 'ra(ilian
officials fre-uently em"hasi(e that FTAA ill "ro!ide relati!ely fe benefits to 'ra(il.s agricultural
sector so long as the #nited $tates farm-su""ort "rograms confer undue ad!antages to #%$%
domestic "roducers% Finally, the FTAA ould im"ly the dismantling or, at a minimum, significant
reduction of tariff barriers that 'ra(il has set u" to nurture manufacturing and high-tech
industries% This does not sit ell ith some of 'ra(il.s leading industrialists% In the light of these
contro!ersies, the FTAA is "ercei!ed by many in 'ra(il as designed for the benefit of the #nited
$tates] concerns about en!ironmental conditions are inter"reted as a subterfuge for diminishing
'ra(ilian so!ereignty, hile #%$% antidum"ing "olicies and labor standards are castigated as
"rete5ts for "rotectionism% Therefore, 'ra(il has a""arently decided that the !agaries of #%$%
domestic and international "olitics "rohibit, and 'ra(il.s groing strength no longer re-uires, a
s"ecial status in essence bestoed by the #nited $tates% 'ra(il henceforth see)s to rely on the
!ibrancy of its economy, the si(e of its "o"ulation and the "artners it is able to enlist in 6ercosur
to forge a dominant "osition in /atin America% As 'ra(il emerges as one of the maBor economic
and "olitical countries of the 93st century, it has concentrated on sloing don the FTAA in order
to solidify 6ercosur] on binding Argentina, Paraguay and #ruguay to its conce"tion of /atin
America.s future] and on obliging the #nited $tates to deal ith a regional bloc rather than ith
indi!idual countries% And beyond the Atlantic, 8uro"e bec)ons ith a com"arable seduction%
*n a !isit to /atin America in 6arch 344I, French President Jac-ues ;hirac identified the future
of /atin America not ith the ?north,? meaning 7AFTA and the #nited $tates, but ith 8uro"e%
6ercosur could orient itself as a distinct entity toard 8uro"e and in institutional ri!alry ith
7AFTA and the #nited $tates% This ould not be sim"ly a setbac) to #%$% economic "ros"ects in
a mar)et of 2:: million "eo"le, accounting for 9: "ercent of its o!erseas trade% Abo!e all, it
challenges the #nited $tates. historic "osition in the hemis"here and its as"iration for a orld
order based on a groing community of democracies in the Americas% 'oth sides should
mount maBor efforts to a!oid this looming contest% The #nited $tates should ma)e it a national
"riority to restore the traditional intimacy beteen the to countries% It needs to mo!e its dealings
ith 'ra(il to the highest le!els of its go!ernment and to dis"lay greater sensiti!ity to the "ride
and dignity of a society on the !erge of becoming a maBor "oer% This also re-uires a
commitment to resol!e the bitter trade dis"utes o!er 'ra(ilian sugar, citrus and steel e5"orts%
+2@ "1/SUL0 J /1*7+L 7E+/S (B-1<UELS) ( 1 / 1 )
"1/SUL0+0-1/ 3-0H B*+,-L 1/ B-1<UELS -S /10 /1*7+L 7E+/S !
H+S /E4E* H+##E/E( BE<1*E
4EL+S"1 (chief #%$% re"resentati!e for the 'ra(ilian $ugar ;ane Industry Association
(#7I;A) 255;
PJoel, M'I*F#8/$E #7I;A.s Celasco gi!es 'ra(ilian sugarcane industry.s ta)e on food-to-fuel,
=F$N 8U8TC.s *nPoint Col% 3: 7o% 4, /e5is, 31 6ay 9::J//loghryR
Joel CelascoE The con!ersations beteen the #%$% and 'ra(il are !ery good, but they.re not
focused on the commercial as"ects of this% There.s a memorandum of understanding beteen
'ra(il and the #nited $tates and it.s focused in three areas, basic coo"eration on basically
ad!anced technology, second-generation technologies] hel"ing other countries outside the #nited
$tates and 'ra(il identify ays to "ro-duce biofuels locally% +e.re "rimarily focused in ;entral
American countries right no, both countries% And then a lot of this is done through these
e5changes of scientists% And then, finally, e.re or)ing on global standards for ethanol so that
there one day can truly be a global mar)et of ethanol as there is of "etroleum "roducts% That
discussion is ongoing% It.s !ery good% $ometimes I thin) from the "ers"ecti!e of the industry e
ish it ent faster, but e.ll lea!e go!ernment officials to or) at their on rate% The discussion
about tariffs and subsidies and mar)et issues has ne!er come out beteen this thing and I thin)
it.s rightfully so% It.s an area of disagreement and the go!ernments are trying to focus on the
"ositi!es%
/1*7+L 7E+/S -S ' ' '
economic relations &it% 8rail are negotiate) 8y t%e )e$t' of commerce2 t%e
)e$t' of treasury or t%e u's' tra)e re$
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%34 //loghryR
$I7;8 T,8 6ID-34I:$, #%$%-'=A>I/ 8;*7*6I; =8/ATI*7$ ,AC8 e!ol!ed against a
continuously tense bac)ground% 'ecause of its debt crisis and ne global financial
circumstances, 'ra(il became more e5"osed to international economic "ressures% ,ence, due to
increases in both its asymmetrical interde"endence and its e5ternal economic !ulnerability, 'ra(il
has lost bargaining "oer !is-`-!is the #nited $tates and has become subordinated to a more
com"le5 set of interests and "ressures%
6eanhile, the democrati(ation "rocess in 'ra(il has generated ne trends in domestic "olitics
in hich a !ariety of "olitical and economic interests e5ert their influence on internal and e5ternal
affairs% Democratic consolidation has constrained the relati!e autonomy of the e5ecuti!e "oer,
as business segments, "olitical "arties, and e!en trade unions ha!e e5"anded their influence,
es"ecially in congressional "olitics% The Foreign 6inistry remains the main state agency in charge
of bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade negotiations dealing ith a !ariety of domestic
"ressures, but it shares groing res"onsibilities ith other agencies, es"ecially the 6inistries of
De!elo"ment and Agriculture, hile monetary and financial e5ternal matters are handled by the
6inistry of the 8conomy% In the #nited $tates, economic relations ith /atin America countries
are a result of three go!ernment agenciesE the De"artment of the Treasury, hich handles
financial and monetary affairs, and the De"artment of ;ommerce and the #%$% Trade
=e"resentati!e, hich together handle bilateral and regional trade matters%
+2@ #E*7S ( 1 / 1 )
+/.0H-/G SH1*0 1< B-/(-/G "1/SUL0+0-1/ S/13B+LLS B*+,-LCS
#*E4-1US <*US0*+0-1/S 3-0H 0HE U/-0E( S0+0ES ! <*+"0U*ES
*EL+0-1/S
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%LJ-4 //loghryR
As e5"ectations regarding economic and "olitical matters are ne!er totally fulfilled, they generate
a!es of frustration% ,ence, one could detect a cyclical mo!ement triggered by reneed a!es of
"ositi!e e5"ectations% In 'ra(il, "erce"tions regarding bilateral relations follo a similar "attern to
those a""lied to the country.s identity, hich combines the notion of uni-ueness ith that of a
"romising future% 'ra(il has re"eatedly made e5"licit its e5"ectations that the #nited $tates
should ac)noledge its distincti!e identity both in /atin America and in the international system%
As ell, the idea of the inauguration of Mne erasN-fre-uently a""lied domestic "olitics-has been
recurrent in 'ra(il.s relationshi" ith the #nited $tates% #ndoubtedly, change can be "ercei!ed in
the different "hases-alliance, alignment, autonomy, and adBustment-that characteri(ed bilateral
relations throughout the tentieth century% &et in all cases, a basic "attern re"eats itself, leading
to reneed frustrations% It is also interesting to note that hile res"onsibility for change has
alays been "laced more on 'ra(il.s side, unmet e5"ectations are mutual%
At "resent, #%$%-'ra(il relations could once again be initiating a "hase of unmet e5"ectations%
The inauguration of the go!ernment of /ui( InDcio /ula da $il!a in 'ra(il as strongly associated
ith the idea of change% =elations ith the #nited $tates could be initiating a ne stage
characteri(ed by more affirmati!e stances by the ne 'ra(ilian go!ernment%
The international "riorities "ut forard by the administration of Aeorge +% 'ush since $e"tember
33, 9::3, brought in ne security !ariables that ill also ine!itably im"act the near future of
bilateral ties% ,o much change is there to be e5"ected in #%$%-'ra(il relations in the near futureF
Probably less that both sides ould ish%
M+e shall try to share ith the #nited $tates a mature "artnershi" based u"on reci"rocal interest
and mutual res"ectN-this as the only statement in /ula.s inauguration s"eech, on January 3,
9::1, 3 that referred to 'ra(il.s relationshi" ith the #nited $tates% Though brief, this message
can be understood from to stand"oints% A more concrete dimension relates to the shared
res"onsibilities in the Free Trade Agreement for the Americas (FTAA) "rocess through 9::1-
9::2, as both countries cochair the ongoing negotiations% A more generic inter"retation alludes to
'ra(il.s recurring as"iration for "olitical ac)noledgment and economic reci"rocity on the "art of
the #nited $tates%
According to the #%$% ambassador to 'ra(il, Donna ,rina), 'ra(ilian frustrations ha!e a "oint,
and their continuous nature leads to more frustration% From her "ers"ecti!e, bilateral relations
could and should be more intensi!e and balanced% *ne maBor reason "ointed out for 'ra(il.s
irrele!ance in #%$% foreign "olicy, com"ared to that of ;hina and =ussia, ould be its nonnuclear
status% This insignificance orsened after $e"tember 33, 9::3, hich Mmo!ed /atin America
behind the stage%N 9 In this conte5t, the ambassador.s recommendations ere that common
interests be u"graded by both sides, "articularly those regarding defense of democracy, human
rights, hemis"heric coo"eration, and the fight against transnational crime and narcotraffic)ing%
The maBor de!elo"ments in bilateral collaboration in many of these fields ha!e been co!ered in
cha"ter 1%
+2@ L-E #E*7S ( 1 / 1 )
8rail is %ig%ly $erce$tive of t%e unite) stateCs actions ! not%ing goes
unnotice)
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%2: //loghryR
To as"ects are crucial hen focusing on #%$%-'ra(il interstate "olitical relationsE the first relates
to the a "riori "oer structure to hich bilateral relations are subordinated] the second refers to
the bureaucratic a""aratus here decision ma)ing ta)es "lace%
The most im"ortant sha"ing factor in #%$%-'ra(il "olitical relations is its asymmetric "oer
structure% For the #nited $tates, the im"ortance of 'ra(il in orld "olitics and international
security matters -uite little, es"ecially hen com"ared to crucial allies such as ;anada and Areat
'ritain, to other orld "oers such as Aermany and Ja"an, or e!en former enemies such as
=ussia% &et, the re!erse does not a""ly] 'ra(il )ee"s a "ermanent atch on the #nited $tates in
orld "olitics, and its foreign "olicy decisions consistently measure the costs and benefits of
con!ergence or discre"ancy ith the #nited $tates%
In the "ost-;old +ar "eriod, such caution has increased in the face of uni"olar orld "olitics,
"articularly since the terrorist attac)s of $e"tember 33, 9::3% Discre"ancies regarding #%$%
inter!ention in orld and regional crises ha!e been discretely re!ealed in e"isodes such as the
Persian Aulf +ar (3443), the crisis in ,aiti (3442), and the @oso!o tragedy (344J)% In all cases,
the #nited $tates ould ha!e elcomed 'ra(il.s full su""ort% 8!en more, 'ra(il.s choice not to
Boin the #%$% bandagon has contrasted ith Argentina.s full-sco"e alignment ith the #nited
$tates after the end of the ;old +ar% 3 ;on!ergence beteen Argentina and the #nited $tates in
international security and orld "olitics as not only a factor of tension in Argentine-'ra(ilian
relations but also hel"ed to mislead official #%$% e5"ectations toard 'ra(il%
Genuine consultation is t%e foun)ation for US-Braillian relations
,% 8% =ubens Bar8osa July 9L, 2555 ('ra(ilian Ambassador to #$, FD;, Political
Transcri"ts)
$o I thin) that the -- the relationshi" beteen 'ra(il and #nited $tates and our !ie and our
common !ie in the hemis"here ere -- are shared and the increased consultations beteen
our to countries in this fran) and trans"arent ay, "roblem all this areas, are good and -- and
are "ositi!e, fruitful to our to countries% And I thin) that the title of our -- of this hearing,
?$trategic -- 'ra(ilE $trategic Partners or =egional ;om"etitorsF? as I -- as e see it, e see
#nited $tates as s -- as strategic "artner, and e ould li)e to ha!e the same !ie from #nited
$tates because the sta)es beteen 'ra(il and #nited $tates are -- are the sort that there.s no
alternati!e to strategic "artnershi"%
+2@ B*+,-L 31/C0 #*1L-<E*+0E ( 1 / 2 )
strong u's'B8rail relations crucial to allay t%e 8railian militaryCs )istrust
of america an) su8se9uent nuclear $roliferation
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%22-2H //loghryR
In defense matters, 'ra(ilian military officials ha!e not left behind strong nationalistic feelings that
contribute to a defensi!e "osture in negotiations ith the #nited $tates% ,oe!er, after a "eriod
of great resistance, closer relations ha!e been accom"lished% 'esides regular bilateral military
e5ercises, the creation of a 'ra(ilian Defense 6inistry in 344J met long-held #%$% e5"ectations% A
'ilateral +or)ing Arou" for Defense as inaugurated in 3444, and 'ra(ilian authorities hosted
and acti!ely "artici"ated at the Fourth Defense 6inisterial of the Americas (9:::)%
The creation of the 'ra(ilian Defense 6inistry has in fact eased #%$%-'ra(il understandings in
security matters% At first, 'ra(ilian authorities strongly resisted the idea, hich in the 344:s as
one of the issues on the sho""ing list of security matters in #%$% tal)s ith 'ra(il% The resistance
mainly came from the military, hich ould not agree to subordinate its forces to a single ci!il
authority% ,oe!er, at the start of its second term, the ;ardoso administration finally managed to
enforce the initiati!e, hich immediately led to a serious debate among the military, academics,
and "oliticians regarding the future of 'ra(il.s defense "olicy% As the ministry too) on the tas) of
"re"aring a hite "a"er as its first im"ortant mission, it o"ened an internal debate on defense
"olicy% The result, in general terms, as that different "ositions ere ta)en by the military, the
Foreign 6inistry, the "residency, and the legislati!e branch% 7ationalistic and anti-American
stances ha!e been more fre-uent among the military-"articularly the army-and in the 'ra(ilian
;ongress, regardless of "arty affiliation% /ess nationalistic and more coo"erati!e stances toard
the #nited $tates ere shared by the Foreign 6inistry and ;ardoso%
Im"ro!ements ere also made in #%$%-'ra(il negotiations o!er sensiti!e technology% This had
been a taboo subBect for both countries since the misunderstandings of the mid-34I:s, hen the
#nited $tates o""osed 'ra(il.s nuclear agreement ith Aermany% Tenty-fi!e years later, an
agreement as reached for #%$% com"anies to use an e-uatorial launching site at a base on the
northeastern 'ra(ilian coast% For the ;ardoso go!ernment, e!en though this agreement did not
gi!e 'ra(il access to technology, it o"ened u" an o""ortunity for the country to "artici"ate in the
international aeros"ace mar)et% L These negotiations hel"ed dissi"ate #%$% concerns regarding
the agreement 'ra(il had reached ith the #)raine for the su""ly of roc)et technology, hile
'ra(ilian officials e5"ected to start a more enduring relationshi" ith the #nited $tates in an area
that had been a source of mistrust for almost three decades%
+2@ B*+,-L 31/C0 #*1L-<E*+0E ( 2 / 2 )
/e& international an) )omestic realities %ave res%a$e) $erce$tions in
8rail ! t%e military &oul) $refer a multi$olar &orl)2 %as t%e im$etus to
c%allange u's' $rimacy
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%L2 //loghryR
*n 'ra(il.s side, "erce"tions regarding the #nited $tates usually in!ol!e defensi!e
considerations% Ao!ernmental and nongo!ernmental actors share the idea that the #nited $tates
re"resents more a source of concern than of o""ortunity for the country, and that #%$% hegemony
im"oses more costs than benefits% The #%$% "resence as a su"er"oer has been a fact of life for
'ra(il since the end of +orld +ar II, and throughout the second half of the tentieth century the
#nited $tates as "ercei!ed by 'ra(ilian elites as the most im"ortant "oer factor in orld
affairs% The strategic constraints im"osed by a bi"olar system don-"layed the identification of
the #nited $tates as an ad!ersary, though in many occasions more as e5"ected regarding
economic su""ort for 'ra(il% ,ence, anti-American sentiments ha!e been lin)ed mostly to
economic nationalism%
7e!ertheless, the emergence of ne international and domestic realities ha!e resha"ed
"erce"tions in 'ra(il% A combination of contributing factors should be "ointed outE the end of the
;old +ar, the e5"ansion of economic e5"osure caused by financial and trade globali(ation, and
the groing im"ortance of domestic "ublic o"inion as a conse-uence of the dee"ening of
democracy% In this conte5t, the consolidation of #%$% leadershi" in the orld since the end of the
;old +ar has dee"ened concerns among "olitical, bureaucratic, academic, business, and social
organi(ations as ell as the military in 'ra(il% In the Foreign 6inistry the dominant "erce"tion is
that a multi"olar orld order, sustained u"on effecti!e and bilateral institutions, ould offer more
o""ortunities and feer constraints than the "resent uni"olar momentum based on #%$% "rimacy%
+2@ /1 3+* 14E* 0*+(E ( 1 / 1 )
tra)e issues s$illover to security issues
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%14-2: //loghryR
A "ossible, though not holly satisfactory, hierarchy differentiates first-tier and second-tier
"olitical issues% The first is concerned ith the state-to-state agenda, addressing orld and
regional "olitics and international security matters] the second encom"asses the agenda of
Mglobal issuesN set by societal mo!ements, nongo!ernmental actors, and "ublic o"inion% The
interaction beteen 'ra(ilian democrati(ation, on the one side, and the e5"anded community of
nongo!ernmental actors attenti!e to orld affairs in the #nited $tates, on the other, has had a
maBor effect u"on #%$%-'ra(ilian "olitical relations% Though the erosion of the boundary beteen
domestic and international "ressures is a common trait in both first- and second-tier issues, it
tends to be more !isible in the latter%
The issues on the first-tier agenda deal ith interstate relations% They include di"lomatic affairs,
as ell as international, regional, and bilateral security matters, and e!ol!e according to orld
e!ents and crises in light of the "ermanent national security interests of both countries% Although
the second-tier agenda also in!ol!es interstate interaction, it is essentially set by
nongo!ernmental actors and interests% It is, by definition, an o"en and e5tensi!e agenda in hich
'ra(ilian and #%$% societal mo!ements and organi(ations aim, in the first "lace, to broaden
"erce"tions and a""roaches in bilateral relations and, second, to "ush for change in 'ra(ilian
state "olicies% The core issues of this agenda ha!e been human rights and the en!ironment% In
both cases, there has been a "ermanent s"illo!er into ne and related to"ics, as the mobili(ation
of different grou"s and organi(ations ta)es "lace% Immigration, media, and "ublic o"inion ha!e
also been included in the second-tier agenda%
+<<
"1/SUL0 (E<E/SE ( 1 / 1 )
Brail )oes not &ant a formal alliance ! only risks relations 8eing %urt ! no
offense for t%e counter$lan
Peter H+A-7, Jan/Feb 56, President of Inter-American Dialogue MThe reluctant "artner,N
Foreign Affairs
To sustain constructi!e ties, +ashington must )ee" its e5"ectations realistic% Some analysts an) U'S' officials
%ave a)vocate) a far tig%ter relations%i$ 8et&een t%e t&o countries2 &it% more regular an)
structure) colla8oration' But Brailians %ave tra)itionally $referre) $ragmatic an)
o$$ortunistic coo$eration &it% t%e United States on s$ecific issues' Still some&%at
)istrustful of 3as%ington2 Brasilia is &ary of creating t%e eE$ectation t%at it &ill 9uasi-
automatically su$$ort U'S' $ositions2 com$romise its a8ility to set an in)e$en)ent course
for itself2 or )iminis% t%e )iversity of its ot%er international relations' 'ra(il, in other ords, has
little interest in de!elo"ing a "ri!ileged relationshi" ith the #nited $tates of the ty"e Argentina once sought% That lea!es
+ashington ith ha!ing to earn 'rasilia.s coo"eration issue by issue, ithout "resuming it ill be granted% $till, the
relationshi" has been remar)ably stable and consistent o!er the years% The to countries ha!e not been steady allies or
continuing ad!ersaries, but they ha!e usually or)ed "roducti!ely together% Today the #nited $tates can usually count on
'ra(il for an im"ortant measure of collaboration on most issues and can usually a!oid its outright o""osition on others
L-E #E*7 S1L4E/". ( 1 / 1 )
#erm ! )o t%e $lan an) tell Brail &e are consulting t%em a8out it2 /o risk
of leaks
=ichard *EE4ES2 ;orres"ondent ith the #ni!ersal Press $yndicate, 39-92-2552 PTulsa
+orldR
$ound of silence from the +hite ,ouse is deafening to corres"ondents +A$,I7AT*7 -- K-f *eagan &as t%e
0eflon $resi)ent2 Bus% is t%e leak-$roof one2K said a +hite ,ouse corres"ondent ho has co!ered both
men' K/ot%ing gets in an)2 sure as %ell2 not%ing gets out'K There as great and grudging res"ect in
that com"laint% Bus% or %is $eo$le kno& t%e secret@ -f you kee$ your mout%s s%ut2 t%ere=s not
muc% t%e 3as%ington $ress can )o to you% ,oell =aines, no the e5ecuti!e editor of The 7e &or)
Times, once groled that being a +hite ,ouse corres"ondent as not much different from stenogra"hy% 'ut at least in
those days -- =aines co!ered the =eagan "residency -- there ere to things to transcribe, official lea)s and unofficial
lea)s% The official ones from ?a high source? ere "art of go!ernance, often trial balloons floated to test "ublic o"inion%
The unofficial or unauthori(ed stream as an a""ro5imation of hat as really going on, ho as doing hat to hom
and hy% 0%e unofficial stuff, hich usually goes from stream to flood hen Democrats are in the +hite ,ouse,
as the )ey to understanding a "resident and his or)s% 'ut that %as $retty muc% )rie) u$ t%ese )ays' 3e
are &atc%ing2 8ut not %earing2 a ne& $eak in ne&s management -- or2 at least2 noise
management' 0%ese folks are not s9uealing on eac% ot%er' -t is not a 9uestion of Ks$inKL it
is a 9uestion of silence'
+2@ B*+,-L #*1L-< ( 1 / 1 )
no &ay 8rail &ill $roliferate2 it recognies t%e force of multilateralism an)
is $arty to t%e mtcr an) n$t
H-*S0 (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%29-21 //loghryR
$ince the mid-344:s, Brailian foreign $olicy %as )evelo$e) a $ositive agen)a regar)ing t%e
international security eE$ectations of t%e Unite) States2 $articularly regar)ing a)%erence
to international non$roliferation regimes' In 3442, Brail :oine) t%e 7issile 0echnology "ontrol
*egime, an) in 344I it ratifie) t%e /uclear 7on-#roliferation 0reaty% At the same time, Brail %as also
su$$orte) t%e en%ancement of multilateral initiatives2 $articularly t%e eE$an)e) role of t%e
Unite) /ations in &orl) $olitics, hile its increased "artici"ation in #7 "eace)ee"ing o"erations has meant
that it has or)ed more ith the #nited $tates in orld affairs% 'ra(il "artici"ated in the #7 *bser!er 6ission in 8l
$al!ador, the #7 *bser!er 6ission in 6o(ambi-ue, and the #7 6ission in Angola (here it sent 3,1:: soldiers, the
largest military force it has sent abroad since +orld +ar II)% 'ra(il also contributed "olice forces to the 3444 #7 "eace
o"eration in 8ast Timor%
LE+(E*SH-# 0U*/ ( 1 / 1 )
a stronger 8rail &ill unify sout% america into a single 8loc t%at &ill
)esta8ilie t%e u's'C tra)e an) security $rominence
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%2L //loghryR
7e!ertheless, hoe!er discretely, concerns %ave 8een raise) in t%e Unite) States regar)ing t%e
$ossi8ility t%at a more active Brail coul) assem8le Sout% +merica into a single 8loc t%at
&oul) )esta8ilie U'S' $reeminence in t%e 3estern Hemis$%ere% As 'ra(il aims to become more
acti!e in regional affairs, )iscre$ancies &it% t%e Unite) States in regional tra)e an) security
issues ten) to $oliticie U'S' %emis$%eric affairs2 an) t%e i)ea t%at Brail coul) 8e forging
a Munifie) regional front in negotiations &it% t%e Unite) StatesN %as gaine) im$etus &it%in
Sout% +merican )i$lomatic an) $olitical circles' 33 ,ence, Brail=s initiative to call a Sout%
+merican $resi)ential summit &as $erceive) as an attem$t to M8lunt 3as%ington=s
strategy in tra)e talks of favoring 8ilateral agreements in &%ic% it %as t%e u$$er %an)'N 39
6eanhile, countries li)e Argentina and ;hile ha!e also manifested more caution than enthusiasm toard 'ra(ilian
di"lomatic mo!es in $outh America%
'ra(il has been reluctant to follo the #%$% dri!e to re!itali(e its inter-American leadershi"% Though the essence of this
agenda consists of a hemis"heric free trade agreement, it has s"illed o!er to other issues such as defense of democracy,
regional security, and common social "olicies% In this conte5t, Brail %as 8een $erceive) 8y U'S' officials
an) sc%olars as an o8structive actor t%at %as im$e)e) t%e Unite) States from freely
setting an) comman)ing t%e agen)a% 31 ,oe!er2 tensions 8et&een t%e Unite) States an)
Brail &ere more !isible before and during the 3442 6iami $ummit than at the 344J $antiago $ummit or the 9::3
auebec $ummit% A "lausible e5"lanation for this is t%at t%e Unite) States )i) not %ol) t%e same
vigorous $osition at t%e Santiago Summit t%at it )i) in 7iami, due to the missing fast-trac) authority
needed by #%$% "resident 'ill ;linton to carry out the FTAA negotiations% At the auebec $ummit, full con!ergence as
reached regarding the "olitical agenda, es"ecially ith res"ect to defense of democracy% 6eanhile, hoe!er,
discre"ancies on free trade negotiations became "articularly thorny%
0H-S "+USES 7UL0-#LE /U"LE+* 3+*S2 S.S0E7-" GL1B+L
-/S0+B-L-0.2 +/( 7+G/-<-ES +LL -7#+"0S
<E*GUS1/B2556 P7aill, Professor, ,istory, $chool of 'usiness, 7e &or) #ni!ersity and
$enior Fello, ,oo!er Institution, $tanford #ni!ersity, $e"tember-*ctober MA +orld +ithout
PoerN ^ Foreign Policy htt"E//%hoo!er%org/"ublications/digest/1::444L%htmlR
$o hat is leftF 3aning em$ires% =eligious re!i!als% Inci"ient anarchy% A coming retreat into fortified cities% These
are t%e (ark +ge eE$eriences t%at a &orl) &it%out a %y$er$o&er mig%t 9uickly fin) itself
reliving% The trouble is, of course, that this Dar) Age ould be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dar) Age of
the ninth century% For the orld is much more "o"ulous--roughly 9: times more--so friction beteen the orld.s dis"arate
?tribes? is bound to be more fre-uent% Technology has transformed "roduction] no human societies de"end not merely
on freshater and the har!est but also on su""lies of fossil fuels that are )non to be finite% 0ec%nology %as
u$gra)e) )estruction2 too2 so it is no& $ossi8le not :ust to sack a city 8ut to o8literate it'
For more than to decades, globali(ation--the integration of orld mar)ets for commodities, labor, and ca"ital--has raised
li!ing standards throughout the orld, e5ce"t here countries ha!e shut themsel!es off from the "rocess through tyranny
or ci!il ar% 0%e reversal of glo8aliation--&%ic% a ne& (ark +ge &oul) $ro)uce--&oul)
certainly lea) to economic stagnation an) even )e$ression' As the #nited $tates sought to "rotect
itself after a second $e"tember 33 de!astates, say, ,ouston or ;hicago, it ould ine!itably become a less o"en society,
less hos"itable for foreigners see)ing to or), !isit, or do business% 6eanhile2 as Euro$e=s 7uslim enclaves
gre&2 -slamist eEtremists= infiltration of t%e EU &oul) 8ecome irreversi8le2 increasing
trans-+tlantic tensions over t%e 7i))le East to t%e 8reaking $oint' +n economic melt)o&n
in "%ina &oul) $lunge t%e "ommunist system into crisis2 unleas%ing t%e centrifugal
forces t%at un)ermine) $revious "%inese em$ires' 3estern investors &oul) lose out an)
conclu)e t%at lo&er returns at %ome are $refera8le to t%e risks of )efault a8roa)' The orst
effects of the ne Dar) Age ould be felt on the edges of the aning great "oers% The ealthiest "orts of the global
economy--from 7e &or) to =otterdam to $hanghai--ould become the targets of "lunderers and "irates% 3it% ease2
terrorists coul) )isru$t t%e free)om of t%e seas2 targeting oil tankers2 aircraft carriers2 an)
cruise liners, hile +estern nations frantically concentrated on ma)ing their air"orts secure% 6eanhile, limite)
nuclear &ars coul) )evastate numerous regions2 8eginning in t%e Aorean $eninsula an)
Aas%mir2 $er%a$s en)ing catastro$%ically in t%e 7i))le East' -n Latin +merica, retchedly "oor
citi(ens ould see) solace in 8!angelical ;hristianity im"orted by #%$% religious orders% -n +frica2 t%e great
$lagues of +-(S an) malaria &oul) continue t%eir )ea)ly &ork' The fe remaining sol!ent airlines
ould sim"ly sus"end ser!ices to many cities in these continents] ho ould ish to lea!e their "ri!ately guarded safe
ha!ens to go thereF For all these reasons, the "ros"ect of an a"olar orld should frighten us today a great deal more than
it frightened the heirs of ;harlemagne% -f t%e Unite) States retreats from glo8al %egemony--its fragile
self-image dented by minor setbac)s on the im"erial frontier--its critics at %ome an) a8roa) must not
$reten) t%at t%ey are us%ering in a ne& era of multi$olar %armony2 or even a return to t%e
goo) ol) 8alance of $o&er% 'e careful hat you ish for% The alternati!e to uni"olarity ould not be multi"olarity
at all% It ould be a"olarity--a global !acuum of "oer% And far more dangerous forces than ri!al great "oers ould
benefit from such a not-so-ne orld disorder%
relations alt cause@ colom8ia ( 1 / 1 )
relations alt cause@ u's' intervention in colom8ia is a constant strain on
relations
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%2I //loghryR
0%e main source of )ifficulties in U'S'-Brail regional $olitics at $resent stems from t%e
)elicate situation in "olom8ia2 as gro&ing U'S' military involvement in su$$ort of t%e
"olom8ian government in com8ating )rug traffickers an) guerrillas %as %a) a negative
im$act on t%e security con)itions in t%e +maon region near Brail=s 8or)ers' 3H 'ra(il is
"articularly concerned ith ;olombia.s "olitical future and the "ossibility that it has become tied to a dee"ening #%$%
"olitical and military "resence%
Brailian a$$re%ensions %ave )ramatically increase) since t%e U'S' "ongress a$$rove)
#lan "olom8ia in 9:::, hich commits 3%1 billion dollars to fight drug traffic)ing in that country% 3L 0%e
connection 8et&een )efense $olicy an) t%e $rotection of t%e +maon %as increasingly led the
Brailian military, "oliticians, and go!ernment officials to fear t%e effects of U'S' intervention in t%e area'
6eanhile, the increased "resence of 'ra(ilian military on the border ith ;olombia has e5"anded budgetary needs and
enhanced the im"ortance of defense "olicy in 'ra(il.s regional agenda% The auerari *"eration, launched in 3444, became
'ra(il.s largest military o"eration in the Ama(on region% It in!ol!ed H,::: men ith the collaboration of the na!y and the air
force, ith a Bungle brigade formed by s"ecially trained indigenous soldiers% The go!ernment has also substantially
increased the budget of the Ama(on region.s ;alha 7orte ProBect, hich gi!es high "riority to social or) and
infrastructure initiati!es in areas inhabited by "oor "o"ulations as ell as indigenous communities% +hile 'ra(ilian military
and "olice forces ha!e demonstrated their intention to assume defense measures against narcoguerrilla acti!ities in the
Ama(on, they face a dramatic lac) of resources to meet their needs%
consult s%unning internal ( 1 / 1 )
s%unningBt%e u's' state )e$artment still re$orts on 8railCs 1""U**-/G
%uman rig%ts a8uses
Hirst (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%H2-HH //loghryR
+hile recent U'S' (e$artment of State re$orts ackno&le)ge government efforts to im$rove
t%e %uman rig%ts con)itions, they also $oint out t%e overall limite) results' + sense of
)isa$$ointment is transmitte) regar)ing :u)iciary action on $olice violence an) t%e
enforcement of local legislation% 1I 0%ese re$orts also illustrate t%e gro&ing concern
among U'S' an) Brailian /G1s to&ar) t%e $rotection of to minority grou"s2 in)igenous
$eo$le an) +fro-Brailians% The greatest "roblem faced by the indigenous "o"ulation has been to secure
e5clusi!e use of the lands and natural resources of the reser!ation areas% Brailian constitutional la& is 9uite
eE$licit regar)ing cultural an) $atrimonial rig%ts in reservation areas% 'ra(ilian indigenous
"olicies ha!e been a matter of domestic debate and transnational cam"aigns% 1J This mobili(ation has been moti!ated
by to factorsE the connections of indigenous rights mo!ements ith the landless "easant grou" in the northern "art of
'ra(il, and the merging of indigenous rights ith en!ironmental "rotection in the Ama(on region%
consult agen)a $ltE links ( 1 / 1 )
consultation &it% 8rail inclu)es $resi)ential )i$lomacy
H-*S0 (85ecuti!e Director, FundaciOn ;entro de 8studos 'rasileiros) 2556
P6Qnica, The #nited $tates and 'ra(ilE A /ong =oad of #nmet 85"ectations "%23 //loghryR
It is im"ortant to )ee" in mind that there is a stri)ing difference beteen the interbureaucratic realm in charge of bilateral
relations in 'ra(il and in the #nited $tates% 1n t%e +merican si)e2 interstate relations are carrie)
for&ar) 8y a 8ureaucratic mOlange essentially con)ucte) 8y t%e U'S' State (e$artment2
t%e /ational Security "ouncil2 an) t%e U'S' 0ra)e *e$resentative' In 'ra(il, they are centrali(ed at
the Foreign 6inistry, referred to as Itamaraty, hich follos the general guidelines and "olitical "references made e5"licit
by the "residency% <ine-tuning among t%e $resi)ency2 t%e <oreign 7inistry2 an) t%e Brailian
em8assy in 3as%ington2 ('"'2 %as al&ays 8een t%e 8ureaucratic miE t%at %as taken care of
U'S'-Brail relations% In the #nited $tates, less centrali(ed foreign "olicy decisions ha!e on many occasions
facilitated an unlin)ed negotiation "rocess, unli)e in 'ra(il, here the role "layed by the Foreign 6inistry has stimulated a
con!ergent line of action among different areas of negotiation% 7ore recently2 a $articular effort %as 8een
ma)e to use $resi)ential )i$lomacy as an instrument for im$roving U'S'-Brail $olitical
communications on glo8al an) regional matters'