THE DEVOLUTION

OF AL QAEDA
From Cohesive Movement to Jihadist Brand
[Blurbs for back cover]
A STRATFOR BOOK
[TK: 65-word summar o! "oo#$
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STRATFOR &resents the !o%%owin' arti(%es as the ori'ina%% a&&eared on our
su"s(ri&tion -e" site) www*STRATFOR*(om* These &ie(es re&resent some o! our "est
ana%ses o! the 1s%amist mi%itant 'rou& a% 9aeda sin(e June 677:) or'ani,ed under (ha&ter
headin's and &resented in the order in whi(h the were &u"%ished* Sin(e most o! the
arti(%es were written as individua% ana%ses) there ma "e over%a& !rom &ie(e to &ie(e and
(ha&ter to (ha&ter) and some o! the in!ormation ma seem dated* /atura%%) some o! the
o"servations herein are %in#ed to a s&e(i!i( time or event that ma "e ears removed !rom
a% 9aeda.s situation toda* ;owever) STRATFOR "e%ieves "rin'in' these &ie(es to'ether
&rovides va%ua"%e insi'ht and &ers&e(tive on a si'ni!i(ant and histori( '%o"a%
&henomenon*
C;A4T0R 8: [<$
A% 9aeda.s -estern Re(ruits
6une 27, 2007
A% 9aeda remains a dnami( or'ani,ation that %evera'es %o(a% e5&ertise and
resour(es in survei%%in') &%annin' and (arrin' out o&erations* To that end) the 'rou&
see#s indi'enous o&eratives to (arr out &re-stri#e survei%%an(e and atta(#s in severa%
nations* An e5amination o! some o! these -estern re(ruits &rovides insi'hts into a%
9aeda.s methods o! re(ruitin') (oordinatin') &%annin' and de&%oin' resour(es*
There are man sus&e(ted Ameri(an and other -estern a% 9aeda !a(i%itators)
o&eratives and sm&athi,ers* ;i'h-&ro!i%e (ases that &rove es&e(ia%% insi'ht!u% in(%ude
those o!:
Jose 4adi%%a) an Ameri(an #nown as the =3irt Bom"er>
Ri(hard Reid) a Briton #nown as the =Shoe Bom"er>
Ja(# Ro(he) Austra%ia.s =Re%u(tant Mi%itant)> who re&orted% has ties to a% 9aeda
and Jemaah 1s%amiah
3rawin' !rom the statements 'iven to investi'ators) ea(h o! these (ases has
simi%arities and di!!eren(es !rom the others ? the most stri#in' simi%arit "ein' that the
were a%% (au'ht* Thou'h a %oo# at these three o!!ers some insi'hts into a% 9aeda.s -estern
re(ruitment) it shou%d not "e assumed that these assessments in(%ude a%% o! the 'rou&.s
re(ruitin' and trainin' te(hni@ues* The ver !a(t that these men were (au'ht raises
@uestions ? and even su''ests a% 9aeda was !u%% (o'ni,ant o! the &otentia% !or
dete(tion* The stories o! those not et (au'ht (ou%d &rove mu(h more interestin' and
insi'ht!u%*
'ose !a()lla* +,e D)r+- Bo.ber
Born in 8AB7 in /ew Cor#) 4adi%%a had a trou"%ed (hi%dhood that %ed to 'an'
invo%vement and run-ins with &o%i(e in Chi(a'o and F%orida* 1n 8AA6) he was introdu(ed
to 1s%am ? re&orted% " his mana'er at a !ast !ood restaurant in F%orida ? thou'h some
stories su''est that the introdu(tion o((urred whi%e he was servin' Dai% time* B 8AAE)
4adi%%a had (han'ed his name to 1"rahim and "e(ome invo%ved with radi(a% 1s%amists in
the Ft* Fauderda%e area*
1n 8AA6) 4adi%%a married and a(@uired a +*S* &ass&ort* Re&orts indi(ate that he
and his wi!e %ived in a 'ated (ommunit) des&ite neither havin' a Do" ? su''estin' that
4adi%%a a%read was re(eivin' some #ind o! sti&end !rom the 1s%ami( (ommunit* 1n 8AAG)
he %e!t his wi!e and trave%ed to 0'&t* ;e staed there !or Dust more than a ear) marrin'
an 0'&tian woman "e!ore headin' to 4a#istan* On(e a'ain) he too# a new name ?
A"du%%ah a%-MuhaDir HA"du%%ah the 1mmi'rantI*
-hi%e in 4a#istan) 4adi%%a met a Cemeni who introdu(ed him to another a% 9aeda
re(ruiter* This a(@uaintan(e s&onsored 4adi%%a.s tri& to A!'hanistan !or wea&ons trainin'
at a (am& overseen " A"u Ju"aida* There) he was 'iven on-the-Do" trainin' as a Ta%i"an
'uard near Ka"u% ? a&&arent% a test o! his %oa%t* A!terward) 4adi%%a was a&&roa(hed
" Mohammed Ate!) who "e'an determinin' the -esterner.s (ommitment and &ossi"%e
use as an o&erative*
4adi%%a was (hosen as a &otentia% o&erative on% a!ter he had (om&%eted "asi(
trainin' in A!'hanistan* This trend seems to !o%%ow that o! most -estern a% 9aeda
re(ruits* As wi%% "e seen with the (ase o! Ja(# Ro(he) the dire(t re(ruitment o! o&eratives
in -estern nations is di!!i(u%tK waitin' !or disa!!e(ted or otherwise e5&%oita"%e -esterners
to ma#e their wa to a% 9aeda is &re!era"%e*
-hat (ame ne5t !or 4adi%%a a&&ears to "e another (ommon trend in a% 9aeda.s
re(ruitment* ;e was sent to 4a#istan) where he re&orted a %ost &ass&ort and was issued a
new one without stam&s that tra(#ed his &revious trave%s* 4adi%%a then went on an
e5&ense-&aid tri& "a(# to 0'&t to visit his wi!e ? an o"vious &er# and attem&t on a%
9aeda.s &art to (ontinue the "ond with the Ameri(an a% 9aeda re(ruit* Two months %ater)
4adi%%a was "a(# in A!'hanistan to re(eive his !irst assi'nment: "%owin' u& +*S*
a&artment "ui%din's with a (om"ination o! natura% 'as %ea#s and detonators*
At this &oint) 4adi%%a.s &otentia% as an o&erative "e'an to s%i&* ;e had a !a%%in' out
with his assi'ned &artner) Ja!ar a%-Taer* H4adi%%a %ater said that Ja!ar was &ro"a"% an
Ameri(an*I A!ter trainin' !or the o&eration) the two ar'ued* 4adi%%a then to%d his hand%ers
that the o&eration was o!!) sin(e he (ou%d not (arr it out a%one* This trainin' o((urred
Dust "e!ore the Se&t* 88 atta(#s in the +nited States* 1t is un(%ear whether the atta(#s
a!!e(ted the men.s de(ision to (a%% o!! the 'as e5&%osion atta(#s*
Fater in the ear) as +*S* air stri#es in A!'hanistan "e'an) 4adi%%a !%ed to 4a#istan*
There) he and another mi%itant attem&ted to se%% the idea o! detonatin' a nu(%ear "om" in
Ameri(a* The two to%d A"u Ju"aida a"out instru(tions !or "ui%din' a nu(%ear devi(e the
had seen on the 1nternet* A"u Ju"aida had dou"ts a"out this idea and assi'ned them to
(arr out the %on'-overdue a&artment "om"in's instead* But " this time) it a&&ears
4adi%%a was no %on'er wi%%in' to %isten*
The idea o! detonatin' a nu(%ear wea&on ? or at %east a radio%o'i(a% devi(e ?
was &resented to Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed " 4adi%%a in Mar(h 6776* A'ain) it was
reDe(ted in !avor o! the a&artment atta(#s* A!ter severa% rounds o! dis(ussion) a% 9aeda
'ave 4adi%%a and an asso(iate ea(h L67)777 and sent them on their wa* Two months %ater)
4adi%%a was arrested whi%e enterin' the +nited StatesK A"u Ju"aida ? " then in (ustod
? had in!ormed investi'ators o! his a(tivities*
A!ter turnin' down the more easi% (arried out a&artment atta(#s) 4adi%%a "e(ame
use%ess as an a% 9aeda o&erative* But as a red herrin' !or +*S* se(urit !or(es to s&end
resour(es and time on) he served a &ur&ose* ;e a%so re&resented a worst-(ase s(enario ?
a (onverted Mus%im mi%itant who did not !it the ra(ia% &ro!i%in' desi'ned to weed out
&ossi"%e a% 9aeda o&eratives*
")c,ar( "e)(* +,e %,oe Bo.ber
The son o! a Jamai(an !ather and an 0n'%ish mother) Ri(hard Reid was "orn and
raised in a Fondon su"ur"* Reid.s !ather ? re&orted% a%so a (onvert to 1s%am ? s&ent
mu(h o! his time in Dai%* B the mid 8AA7s) Reid had a%so em"ar#ed on a %i!e o! (rime and
was in(ar(erated !or a series o! mu''in's* -hi%e servin' time in the Fe%tham oun'
o!!enders. institute) he was introdu(ed to) and em"ra(ed 1s%am*
Fi#e 4adi%%a) Reid (ame !rom an essentia%% !ather%ess home) "e(ame a Duveni%e
&ett (rimina% and turned to 1s%am whi%e servin' time* 1s%am &rovided a sense o!
"e%on'in' and &ur&ose !or "oth menK however) their a&&arent %a(# o! se%!-dis(i&%ine a%so
o&ened them u& to the in!%uen(e o! radi(a%s*
Reid ? who (han'ed his name to A"de% Rahim ? Doined the Bri5ton Mos@ue)
whi(h he%&ed to reha"i%itate !ormer (rimina%s* ;is devotion to studin' drew him to more
radi(a% mem"ers o! the 1s%ami( (ommunit* Reid "e'an a((usin' mos@ue mem"ers and
%eaders o! deviatin' !rom the truth and a((e&tin' -estern in!%uen(es* Be!ore "ein'
e5&e%%ed !rom the mos@ue) he met u& with !e%%ow disa!!e(ted worshi&er Ja(arias
Moussaoui*
1n %ate 8AAG) Reid sto&&ed attendin' Bri5ton and moved to 4a#istan* ;e then
"e'an trainin' in A!'hanistan and trave%ed to severa% (ountries ? in(%udin' 0'&t) 1srae%)
Tur#e) Be%'ium) the /ether%ands and Fran(e* 3urin' these !%i'hts) Reid was a%%e'ed%
s(outin' the se(urit &ro(edures o! Ameri(an air%inesK he a%so visited radi(a% and mi%itant
1s%amist (ommunities* -hi%e in A!'hanistan) Reid trained in a s&e(ia% (am& !or so%o
martrs) %earnin' "om" ma#in' and methods o! avoidin' dete(tion* One o! his
su&ervisors was Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed*
Be!ore de&artin' !rom 4aris in 3e(em"er 6778) Reid a(@uired a new &ass&ort !ree
o! stam&s !rom his &revious trave%s* Fi#e 4adi%%a) he (%aimed to have %ost his ori'ina%
&ass&ort* Reid was detained "rie!% !or @uestionin' at the 4aris air&ort 3e(* 68 ? the
ori'ina% date o! his &%anned atta(# ? "ut was a%%owed to !% the ne5t da* ;e re&orted%
was unsu((ess!u% in his atta(# on% "e(ause the re@uired !uses 'ot wet in the rain*
Reid a&&eared to have "etter trainin' than 4adi%%a) who "asi(a%% "e(ame a
="%own a'ent> %e!t on his own " a% 9aeda* H1! he had mana'ed to &u%% o!! an atta(#)
however) a% 9aeda wou%d not have (om&%ained*I 4erha&s more im&ortant%) Reid was
more wi%%in' to die*
3es&ite these di!!eren(es) 4adi%%a and Reid !o%%owed a simi%ar &ath to a% 9aeda*
1m&ressiona"%e oun' men) the !%irted with 1s%am in &rison and 'ravitated toward those
with the stron'est (onvi(tions in their res&e(tive 1s%ami( (ommunities* A% 9aeda did not
need to see# out these -estern mem"ers* The 'rou& sim&% moved them in a natura%
&ro'ression throu'h the trainin' (am&s in A!'hanistan to se%e(tion as o&eratives*
'ack "oc,e* Aus+ral)a/s "eluc+a0+ 1)l)+a0+
Born in 8A5E as 4au% 2eor'e ;o%%and) Ja(# Ro(he.s (ase "ears simi%arities and
di!!eren(es to those o! 4adi%%a and Reid* For one) he was mu(h o%der u&on his
introdu(tion to 1s%am* A native o! Britain) Ro(he dri!ted to 2erman and eventua%% to
Austra%ia) where he o"tained (iti,enshi& in 8ABG* Thou'h he had !ew i! an &ro"%ems
with the %aw) Ro(he was a heav drin#er* ;e (onverted to 1s%am in 8AAE as &art o! an
e!!ort to ta(#%e his drin#in' &ro"%em*
As was the (ase with 4adi%%a and Reid) Ro(he turned to 1s%am to !i%% a void and 'et
on a more =(orre(t> &ath* A%% three men &roved sus(e&ti"%e to e5terna% in!%uen(es in their
new!ound re%i'ion and %i!est%e*
From 8AAE to 8AA5) Ro(he %ived in 1ndonesia) studin' 1s%am and tea(hin'
0n'%ish as a se(ond %an'ua'e* ;e met A"du%%ah Sun'#ar ? (o-!ounder o! Jemaah
1s%amiah HJ1I ? whi%e the %atter was visitin' a Sdne mos@ue in 8AA6* Ro(he then
"e'an to a!!i%iate with the more radi(a% 1s%amists and J1* 1n ear% 6777) he trave%ed to
A!'hanistan and Doined the Ta%i"an* Mohammad Ate! and other senior a% 9aeda mem"ers
as#ed him to esta"%ish an a% 9aeda (e%% in Austra%ia) where he (ou%d sta#e out the 1srae%i
0m"ass and other &otentia% tar'ets*
The use and de&%oment o! Ro(he then !e%% a&art) a&&arent% "e(ause o! s&%its
"etween and within J1 and a% 9aeda* Ro(he was sent to Ma%asia in Fe"ruar 6777 to
meet with ;am"a%i) an o&erative !or "oth a% 9aeda and J1* ;am"a%i to%d Ro(he to &re&are
!or a tri& to A!'hanistan where he wou%d meet a =shei#h*> Ro(he returned to Austra%ia)
!%ew "a(# to Ma%asia a month %ater) and then went on to 4a#istan) where he was met "
Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed* 1n A&ri%) Ro(he went to A!'hanistan) where he met Osama
"in Faden and undertoo# a two-wee# (ourse in e5&%osives*
Ro(he.s re%ationshi& with J1 seems to have a((e%erated a% 9aeda.s de(ision to ta#e
him in as a &otentia% o&erative and (e%% %eader* ;e dis(ussed &ossi"%e tar'ets inside
Austra%ia with a% 9aeda %eaders) in(%udin' Mohammed Ate! and Kha%id Shei#h
Mohammed* Ro(he was 'iven more than LG)777 and was to%d to "e'in survei%%an(e on
the 1srae%i 0m"ass and other #e 1srae%i di&%omati( and e(onomi( tar'ets* ;owever)
re&orts indi(ate his J1 hand%ers were a(tua%% more interested in the Sdne O%m&i(s*
A!ter em"ar#in' on the survei%%an(e wor# in June 6777) Ro(he "e(ame
a&&rehensive a"out (arrin' out an a(tua% o&erationK he was a%so e5&erien(in' %itt%e %u(#
in re(ruitin' new (e%% mem"ers* On Ju% 8:) Ro(he &honed the Austra%ian Se(urit
1nte%%i'en(e Or'ani,ation HAS1OI* ;e e5&%ained his (onne(tion with "in Faden and
warned that a J1 and a% 9aeda (e%% e5isted in Austra%ia* Ro(he (a%%ed a'ain !ive das %ater)
a!ter re(eivin' no res&onse to his !irst (a%%*
Re(o'ni,in' Ro(he.s 'rowin' re%u(tan(e) J1 ur'ed him Au'* G to (arr on with the
o&eration* Two das %ater) Ro(he a'ain (a%%ed the AS1O* A'ain) he re(eived no res&onse*
A !ew das %ater) J1 (a%%ed o!! the atta(# &%ans* Ro(he was %e!t on his own unti% his arrest
more than two ears %ater*
Thou'h Ro(he.s mission was eventua%% (a%%ed o!!) neither J1 nor a% 9aeda did
anthin' ? aside !rom issuin' minor threats ? to ensure he never ta%#ed* For an
or'ani,ation as se(urit (ons(ious as a% 9aeda) this seems an anoma%* 4erha&s the 'rou&
wanted Ro(he to "e (au'ht as a means o! s&readin' !ear in Austra%ia* On the other hand)
a% 9aeda mi'ht have had %itt%e (on(ern over his (a&tureK a!ter a%%) AS1O !ai%ed to res&ond
to his &hone (a%%s*
o..o0 De0o.)0a+ors
The (ommon denominators in these three (ases are not so(ioe(onomi( (onditions
or a'e* Rather) the are a &er(eived need !or "e%on'in' to somethin') a vu%nera"i%it and
naivete that %e!t the three men sus(e&ti"%e to radi(a% tea(hin's* Radi(a% white hate 'rou&s
and other (u%ts a%so re(ruit mem"ers " ta&&in' into these #inds o! vu%nera"i%ities*
Thou'h man -esterners (onvert to 1s%am) on% a sma%% num"er o! them are
enti(ed " its radi(a% tea(hin's* A sti%% sma%%er num"er a(tua%% a(t on these tea(hin's)
re(eivin' trainin' in &%a(es su(h as 4a#istan) A!'hanistan or 1ndonesia and transitionin'
!rom radi(a%ism to mi%itantism* Sti%% !ewer "e(ome a% 9aeda o&eratives ? a ste& that
re@uires denoun(in' one.s own nation in !avor o! a "roader ideo%o'*
A% 9aedaMs Communi(ations /etwor#
Aug) 11, 2007
The arrests o! severa% sus&e(ted a% 9aeda mem"ers and su&&orters in 4a#istan) the
+nited Kin'dom) the +nited Ara" 0mirates and the southern +nited States o!!er a
sna&shot o! a s%iver o! a% 9aeda.s (ommand) (ontro% and (ommuni(ations networ#*
Cou&%ed with &revious in!ormation '%eaned !rom arrests) threats and su((ess!u%
atta(#s) it revea%s an or'ani,ation with "oth a hi'h% (ontro%%in' (entra%i,ed (ore and a
%eve% o! o&erationa% !reedom !or its re'iona% and %o(a% (ommanders* Centra% to its
e!!e(tiveness in turnin' dee& strate'i( thin#in' at the (ore into ta(ti(a% o&erations on the
'round is a series o! (ommuni(ation nodes ? &eo&%e &ri,ed not so mu(h !or their a"i%it
to &%an) "ut !or their s#i%% with (om&uters*
The (ommuni(ations nodes are reservoirs o! in!ormation (o%%e(ted !rom !ar-!%un'
o&eratives via e-mai% or hand-de%ivered messa'es* The in!ormation is &ro(essed) stored
and disseminated to other o&eratives or to the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi&* Messa'es are
de%ivered !rom the a% 9aeda (ore down the (hain o! (ommand to the re'iona% and %o(a%
!ie%d (ommanders* -hi%e there o!ten are severa% intermediar (ouriers) the
(ommuni(ations nodes are the (entra% %in# "etween a strate'i( vision and a ta(ti(a%
rea%it*
4a#istan.s arrest o! #e (ommuni(ations node Mohammad /aeem /oor Khan on
Ju% 8E o!!ered inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies a treasure-trove o! insi'ht not on% into a% 9aeda.s
&otentia% &%ans and survei%%an(e methods) "ut a%so into the stru(ture o! at %east &art o! its
networ#* Khan.s (om&uter (arried a% 9aeda survei%%an(e re&orts and (onta(t in!ormation
!or (ommanders ? whi(h 4a#istani and +*S* inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies e5&%oited " en'a'in'
Khan in an o&eration to !%ush out these dis&arate (ommanders*
Khan sent messa'es to %o(ations around the wor%d) sain' he had new in!ormation
!rom a% 9aeda (entra% and was waitin' !or re&%ies* These &ro"es into the sstem)
monitored (%ose% " 1nter-Servi(es 1nte%%i'en(e H1S1I and the C1A) %ed to the detentions
o! "oth Ahmed Kha%!an 2hai%ani) a Tan,anian %in#ed to the +*S* 0m"ass "om"in's in
A!ri(a) and to A"u 0isa a%-;indi) a re'iona% mi%itant (ommander in the +nited Kin'dom
and &ro"a"% the +nited States* Further &ro"es %i#e% revea%ed (%ues a"out the
(ommuni(ations &aths and &erha&s &ointed to other re'iona% or %o(a% (ommanders*
;owever) the reve%ation o! Khan.s arrest " +*S* &o%iti(ians a da a!ter the hei'htened
terrorist a%erts were issued !or /ew Cor#) /ew Jerse and -ashin'ton) 3*C*) @ui(#%
dried u& the !%ow o! in!ormation) !rustratin' the 1S1) the 4a#istani 'overnment and the
C1A*
Khan &rovides an e5am&%e o! the #ind o! (ommuni(ations networ# a% 9aeda has
esta"%ished ? and) undou"ted%) severa% other Khans are out there* The do not
ne(essari% #now the names or wherea"outs o! the (ommanders) or o! Osama "in Faden
or other to& a% 9aeda o!!i(ia%s) "ut are aware o! the &%ans and orders "ein' &assed "a(#
and !orth*
2iven a% 9aeda.s &en(hant !or se(urit and !or redundan( o! o&erations) there
%i#e% is over%a& in the !ie%d (ommanders on the (onta(t %ist o! ea(h o! these
(ommuni(ations nodes) whi(h a%%ows a stead !%ow o! dire(tions !rom the to& and
in!ormation and inte%%i'en(e !rom the !ie%d even i! one node is (om&romised* As a "ui%t-
in se(urit !eature) a% 9aeda !ie%d (ommanders and ta(ti(a% o&eratives !%ee or 'o
under'round when their %ine o! (ommuni(ation seems sus&e(t or dries u&* The do not
stri#e with whatever &%an the mi'ht have "een &%ottin'*
This revea%s a (ertain %eve% o! (entra% (ontro% and a %a(# o! (%arit " the ta(ti(a%
o&eratives a"out the e5a(t nature o! a% 9aeda.s &%ansK the train !or a (ertain t&e o!
o&eration) the surve (ertain areas) "ut the e5a(t timin') %o(ation and (oordination o!
severa% (e%%s is done " a re'iona% or %o(a% !ie%d (ommander* This is done is su(h a wa
that even i! one mi%itant or (e%% were "ro#en) it wou%d not ne(essari% Deo&ardi,e the entire
o&eration*
This se(urit !eature a%so means that ea(h &erson in the (ommuni(ations and
(ommand (hain mi'ht #now on% the true identit o! two or 87 other o&eratives* 1! one
o&erative is interro'ated) rather than 'ivin' u& the who%e networ#) he (an &rovide on% an
e-mai% address or the names o! a !ew others ? thus de%ain' the unrave%in' o! a "roader
swath o! the networ#* 1! these (ommuni(ations %ines Dum& a(ross (ontinents whi%e arrests
ta#e &%a(e) other %in#s in that (hain wi%% "e "ro#en and new (ommuni(ations &aths wi%% "e
esta"%ished*
On(e a #e arrest has "een made &u"%i() or a series o! arrests ta#es &%a(e) a%% other
a% 9aeda o&eratives with (onne(tions to that %in# in the networ# 'o under'round) %eavin'
investi'ators on% a short time to round u& a !ew others* That &art% e5&%ains the sudden
dro& in detentions !o%%owin' the ra&id roundu& o! o&erationa% (e%%s in 4a#istan and the
+nited Kin'dom*
The 4a#istani (e%% "ro#en " the in!ormation !rom Khan was nomina%% dire(ted
" Ahmed Kha%!an 2hai%ani* 2hai%ani was one o! the FB1.s most-wanted a% 9aeda
o&eratives) a((used o! "ein' a #e &%anner and !a(i%itator in the 8AAG +*S* 0m"ass
atta(#s in Kena and Tan,ania* ;is hi'h &ro!i%e) however) %e!t him out o! the a% 9aeda
inner (ir(%e !or &%annin' ? thou'h he remains one o! the most %oa% to "in Faden*
1nstead) a!ter a stint raisin' !unds in A!ri(a) 2hai%ani had %ain %ow) ta#in' advanta'e o!
the "road 1s%amist su&&ort networ# to move a"out and avoid (a&ture*
2hai%ani a&&arent% had two more re(ent ro%es in 4a#istan* First) he was senior
adviser to %o(a% a% 9aeda mi%itants and o&erationa% (ommanders in the (am&ai'n a'ainst
4a#istani 4resident 2en* 4erve, Musharra! and his re'ime* ;e a%so was as a #e re(ruiter
!or a% 9aeda mem"ers !rom A!ri(a*
A"u 0isa a%-;indi) however) is a mu(h more a(tive o&erationa% (ommander)
simi%ar in ro%e to Mohammad Atta) who (oordinated the !ina% sta'es o! the Se&t* 88
atta(#s* A%-;indi was most re(ent% "ased in the +nited Kin'dom) "ut has trave%ed to the
+nited States) and %i#e Atta &ro"a"% had o&erationa% (ontro% over severa% (e%%s on "oth
sides o! the At%anti(* A%-;indi (oordinated and &arti(i&ated in the survei%%an(e o! #e
+*S* "ui%din's) trave%in' to the +nited States at %east on(e in 6778* On(e the in!ormation
was (o%%e(ted) the !ina% survei%%an(e dossiers wou%d have "een transmitted) throu'h Khan)
"a(# to the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi&) where a strate'i( assessment o! the &ossi"%e ta(ti(a%
tar'ets (ou%d "e (ondu(ted* Further survei%%an(e ? or atta(# &%annin' ? was then
transmitted "a(# throu'h Khan or another (ommuni(ations node to a%-;indi*
A%thou'h a%-;indi.s Au'* : arrest a%so na""ed severa% sus&e(ted a% 9aeda
mem"ers in 0n'%and) it thus !ar has !ai%ed to turn u& an maDor o&eratives inside the
+nited States* 1n !a(t) thou'h he a%%e'ed% sent at %east si5 messa'es to +*S*-"ased
o&eratives or (ommanders durin' the !%ushin' o&eration) none has %ed to +*S* arrests)
thou'h a !ew &eo&%e mi'ht now "e under survei%%an(e* On(e Khan.s arrest "e(ame &u"%i(
#now%ed'e) these o&eratives and (ommanders undou"ted% dro&&ed o!! the radar s(reen)
and inte%%i'en(e o!!i(ia%s have said the 'enera% "a(#'round =(hatter> o! a% 9aeda
mem"ers !e%% &re(i&itous% with word o! Khan.s detention*
2iven that a% 9aeda o&eratives have entered the +nited States at %east a ear in
advan(e o! an &otentia% atta(#) the !a(t that this &arti(u%ar (ommuni(ations %in# has "een
"ro#en does not ne(essari% &re(%ude an o&eration a%read in its !ina% sta'es* Atta) !or
e5am&%e) entered the +nited States on June E) 6777) and e5ited and re-entered the (ountr
severa% times) meetin' with other a% 9aeda o&eratives a%% over the wor%d* O!!i(ia%s #now
Khan was in (onta(t with severa% &eo&%e in the +nited States and around the wor%d ? "ut
their identities and e5a(t %o(ations remain un#nown*
A% 9aeda a%most de!inite% has do,ens o! =s%ee&er a'ents> inside the +nited States
? the &ro"a"% have "een in the (ountr !or ears) waitin' to "e (a%%ed u&* On% when a
(e%% %eader moves into the (ountr and "e'ins (onta(tin' these s%ee&ers wi%% the %earn o!
their mission and its detai%s* 1t mi'ht never "e #nown !or sure whether a%-;indi.s arrest
has thwarted a maDor o&eration*
+%timate%) Khan.s detention has o!!ered use!u% insi'hts into the interna% wor#in's
o! a% 9aeda* First) there are innumera"%e %aers o! (ommand) (ontro% and (ommuni(ation
inside a% 9aeda) o"!us(atin' the true ori'in and end-&oint o! messa'es and (on(ea%in' the
identities o! o&eratives* There are %owest-%eve%) 'runt-wor# o&eratives) mid-%eve% dire(tors
and senior &%anners* There a%so are !und-raisers) (ommuni(ations &eo&%e and de%ivermen
who on% (arr messa'es*
Se(ond) the sender a%most never de%ivers A% 9aeda messa'es to the end re(i&ient*
A &ie(e o! &a&er written in (ode (ou%d trave% !rom Fahore) 4a#istan) to +A0 to Britain to
the +nited States) (arried " a di!!erent &erson on ea(h %e'* Survei%%an(e done " an
o&erative at a Fas Ne'as (asino mi'ht "e e-mai%ed to an o&erative in /i'eria) who
!orwards it to an a((ount "ased in Cemen) who !orwards it to an a((ount in 4a#istan*
A'ain) the &ur&ose is to (on(ea% and) in (ase o! dete(tion or &enetration) se(ure the
networ#*
But it a%so means a% 9aeda is rather re%iant on its #e (ommuni(ations nodes !or
ra&id and e!!i(ient dissemination o! in!ormation and orders* The dete(tion and disa"%in'
o! these nodes) even without a su"se@uent o&eration to !%ush out their (onta(ts) (an (ause
a serious disru&tion in a% 9aeda.s (a&a"i%ities* -ith the (urrent o&eratin' &aradi'm "ein'
to 'o under'round i! a "rea(h in the networ# is "e%ieved) the (a&ture o! (ommuni(ations
&eo&%e mi'ht "e the most e!!e(tive wa o! underminin' a% 9aeda.s o&erationa%
(a&a"i%ities ? sh o! the (a&ture o! "in Faden himse%!*
A% 9aeda and the Threat o! Chemi(a% and Bio%o'i(a% -ea&ons
5ec) 7, 2007
A &am&h%et &u"%ished on the C1A.s -e" site sas a% 9aeda do(uments (a&tured in
A!'hanistan indi(ate that the networ# &ossesses (rude &ro(edures !or &rodu(in' NO
nerve a'ent) sarin and mustard 'as* 1n %i'ht o! this in!ormation) the mainstream media
re(ent% have !o(used on the &ossi"i%it that a% 9aeda wi%% use (hemi(a% andPor "io%o'i(a%
wea&ons HCB-sI a'ainst the +nited States and +*S* interests a"road*
The Ameri(an &u"%i( has "een "esie'ed with warnin's a"out a% 9aeda and its
CB- &ro'ram sin(e short% a!ter the +nited States %aun(hed a 8AAG (ruise missi%e atta(#
a'ainst Sudan.s Shi!a &harma(euti(a% !a(tor) whi(h -ashin'ton said was a terrorist-
re%ated !a(i%it* STRATFOR a%so has written a"out the dan'er &osed " terrorists usin'
(hemi(a% or "io%o'i(a% wea&ons on more than one o((asion* A%thou'h these warnin's are
not without !oundation) STRATFOR "e%ieves a% 9aeda is neither (a&a"%e o! &rodu(in'
mass @uantities o! dead% a'ents nor does it have the means to e!!e(tive% dis&ense them*
-e #now !rom the 6778 (ourt testimon o! Ahmed Ressam ? the A%'erian
nationa% who &%otted to "%ow u& Fos An'e%es 1nternationa% Air&ort ? that a% 9aeda
mem"ers (ondu(ted e5&eriments usin' (anide and other to5ins to #i%% do's at the
3eronta trainin' (am& in A!'hanistan* Nideos re(overed " +*S* troo&s a!ter the invasion
o! A!'hanistan su&&orted this testimon and) as noted " the C1A) sei,ed a% 9aeda
trainin' manua%s have in(%uded re(i&es !or ma#in' "io%o'i(a% to5ins and (hemi(a% a'ents*
Re(i&es !or &rodu(in' to5ins su(h as ri(in are a%so readi% avai%a"%e on the 1nternet*
The in!ormation a"out a% 9aeda.s e5&eriments with (hemi(a% wea&ons shou%d
(ome as no sur&rise* 1n an interview aired on ABC /ews in 3e(em"er 8AAG) Osama "in
Faden said) =1! 1 have indeed a(@uired these wea&ons) then this is an o"%i'ation 1 (arried
out) and 1 than# 2od !or ena"%in' me to do so*>
The eviden(e is (%ear: a% 9aeda does &ossess the (a&a"i%it to ma#e and use (rude
(hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons* ;owever) des&ite the !ear that these su"stan(es
en'ender) the o!ten are @uite ine!!e(tive as wea&ons* An e5amination o! Ja&anese
a&o(a%&ti( (u%t Aum Shinri#o.s CB- &ro'ram &rovides some im&ortant insi'ht into
these wea&ons and the (ost and %imitations o! su(h sstems*
A((ordin' to testimon in the tria%s o! Aum Shinri#o %eaders) the 'rou&
(ondu(ted 8B #nown CB- atta(#s or attem&ted atta(#s "etween 8AA7 and 8AA5) 87 o!
them usin' (hemi(a% a'ents H!our with sarin) !our with NO) one with &hos'ene and one
with sodium (anideI) and seven usin' "io%o'i(a% a'ents H!our with anthra5 and three
with "otu%inum to5inI* The Ja&anese 'overnment !urther sus&e(ts Aum Shinri#o in
another 8E atta(#s that remain unso%ved* The 'rou& a%so re&orted% #i%%ed severa%
dissident mem"ers usin' NO nerve a'ent*
1n(%uded amon' Aum Shinri#o.s atta(#s were severa% %ar'e-s(a%e o&erations* For
e5am&%e) in A&ri% o! 8AA7) the 'rou& used a !%eet o! three tru(#s e@ui&&ed with aeroso%
s&raers to re%ease %i@uid "otu%inum to5in on the 1m&eria% 4a%a(e) the 3iet and the +*S*
0m"ass in To#o) and two +*S* nava% "ases and the air&ort in /arita*
Between June and Au'ust o! 8AAE) the 'rou& s&raed thousands o! 'a%%ons o!
%i@uid anthra5 in To#o* 1t used s&raers mounted on the roo! o! their head@uarters on
two o((asions) and it a%so (ondu(ted two atta(#s with s&raer tru(#s) one a'ainst the 3iet
and the other a'ainst the 1m&eria% 4a%a(e and the To#o Tower*
1n June o! 8AA:) Aum Shinri#o used a van e@ui&&ed with a sarin dis&enser to
attem&t to #i%% three Dud'es hearin' a (ase a'ainst the 'rou&* The Dud'es) who a%% %ived in
the same dormitor) survived the atta(# when the wind "%ew the sarin awa !rom the
"ui%din') "ut seven &eo&%e in the nei'h"orhood were #i%%ed*
Aum Shinri#o.s most su((ess!u% atta(# was in Mar(h 8AA5) when mem"ers o!
the 'rou& &un(tured 88 sarin-!i%%ed &%asti( "a's on !ive di!!erent su"wa trains) #i%%in' 86
&eo&%e*
Aum Shinri#o.s team o! hi'h% trained s(ientists wor#ed under idea% (onditions
in a !irst-wor%d (ountr with a virtua%% un%imited "ud'et* The team wor#ed in %ar'e)
modern !a(i%ities to &rodu(e su"stantia% @uantities o! (hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons*
3es&ite the mi%%ions o! do%%ars the 'rou& s&ent on its CB- &ro'ram) however) it sti%%
!a(ed &ro"%ems in (reatin' viru%ent "io%o'i(a% a'ents) and it a%so !ound it di!!i(u%t to
dis&ense those a'ents in an e!!e(tive manner* Be(ause o! these &ro"%ems) the mi%itants
su((eeded in #i%%in' on% a hand!u% o! &eo&%e) and the did not (ause the '%o"a%
Arma'eddon the endeavored to (reate*
Aum Shinri#o.s e5am&%e shows us that (reatin' and dis&ensin' (hemi(a% and
"io%o'i(a% a'ents e!!e(tive% on a %ar'e s(a%e sim&% is not as eas as some wou%d have us
"e%ieve*
The Mar(h train "om"in's in Madrid &rovide an interestin' (om&arison to the
8AA5 su"wa atta(#s* 1n man was) the atta(#s were simi%ar: "oth 'rou&s &%a(ed
mu%ti&%e devi(es in the (ommuter train sstem and intended to (reate ma5imum
(asua%ties* ;owever) the (onventiona% im&rovised e5&%osive devi(e used in Madrid is
estimated to have (ost on% L87)777 to manu!a(ture ?on% a sma%% !ra(tion o! what it
(ost Aum Shinri#o to deve%o& its CB- &ro'ram* Cet) des&ite the 'reat dis&arit in (ost)
the To#o su"wa atta(# #i%%ed 86) and the Madrid "om"in's #i%%ed 8A8*
A% 9aeda has a histor o! attem&tin' to (ommit s&e(ta(u%ar terrorist atta(#s*
Sometimes the have su((eeded* As STRATFOR has ar'ued) a% 9aeda is under
tremendous &ressure to (ommit another atta(# ? and a s&e(ta(u%ar one at that* As the
Aum Shinri#o and the &ost-Se&t* 88 anthra5-%etter (ases in the +nited States &roved)
(hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons do (ause a %ot o! &ani() "ut when em&%oed in %imited
@uantities the wi%% not (reate the num"er o! (asua%ties that a% 9aeda is see#in'*
Sin(e the Se&t* 88 atta(#s) the +nited States and its a%%ies have a(tive% &ursued a%
9aeda* The networ# has had mi%%ions o! do%%ars o! its assets sei,ed in a num"er o!
(ountries) and it no %on'er has the sa!e haven o! A!'hanistan !rom whi(h to o&erate* 1n
other words) is in a ver di!!erent &%a(e or'ani,ationa%% than was Aum Shinri#o durin'
the 8AA7s* A% 9aeda (annot easi% "ui%d %ar'e modern !a(tories (a&a"%e o! &rodu(in'
thousands o! 'a%%ons o! a'ents or to5ins* 1t (ertain% (an (reate sma%% @uantities o! these
(om&ounds) "ut not enou'h to wrea# the #ind o! dama'e it desires* O! (ourse) we are
dis(ussin' a% 9aeda &rime) and not the %ar'er Dihadist universe* 1nde&endent (e%%s and
%one wo%ves wi%% a%most (ertain% attem&t to "rew some o! the re(i&es in the a% 9aeda
(oo#"oo#*
STRATFOR "e%ieves that the a% 9aeda networ# intends to (ondu(t another
terrorist s&e(ta(u%ar ? and wi%% do so i! and when it (an* -e a%so "e%ieve that it is !ar
more %i#e% to uti%i,e (onventiona% e5&%osives ? with or without a radio%o'i(a% #i(#er ?
than the NO) sarin and mustard 'as mentioned in the C1A &am&h%et*
A% 9aedaMs 2%o"a% Cam&ai'n: Tet O!!ensive or Batt%e o! the Bu%'e<
6uy 27, 2008
A s&ate o! atta(#s have o((urred re(ent% that we attri"ute to a% 9aeda* 1n addition
to the two rounds o! atta(#s in Fondon this month and the "om"in's at Sharm e% Shei#h)
we have seen on'oin' sui(ide "om"in's in A!'hanistan and 1ra@ that tar'eted
'overnment o!!i(ia%s) the "om"in' o! a Su!i shrine in 1s%ama"ad) the a"du(tion and
murder o! an 1ranian se(urit o!!i(ia% and other #i%%in's in the Mus%im wor%d* 1n addition)
we have seen an intensi!i(ation o! atta(#s in 1ra@ " A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi.s a% 9aeda-
%in#ed !a(tion* -e are not 'reat "e%ievers in (oin(iden(e and there!ore re'ard these
in(idents as "ein' (oordinated* The de'ree o! (oordination and the method where"
(oordination is a(hieved is mur#) and not rea%% materia%* But that we are e5&erien(in'
an o!!ensive " a% 9aeda is (%ear*
At issue is the nature o! the o!!ensive* To &ut the matter sim&%) do these atta(#s
indi(ate the on'oin') undiminished stren'th o! a% 9aeda) or do the re&resent a !ina%)
des&erate (ounteratta(# ? "oth within 1ra@ and '%o"a%% ? to attem&t to reverse a%
9aeda.s !ortunes< 1n our view) the %atter is the (ase* A% 9aeda) havin' "een hammered
over the &ast !our ears) and a%-Jar@awi) !a(in' the de!e(tion o! %ar'e se'ments o! his
Sunni "ase o! su&&ort) are en'a'ed in a des&erate attem&t to reverse the (ourse o! the war*
1t is not (%ear that the wi%% !ai%K su(h (ounter-o!!ensives have su((eeded in re(ent ears*
The @uestion is whether this is a Tet o!!ensive or a Batt%e o! the Bu%'e*
To "e'in to answer that) we need to (onsider these two o!!ensives*
1n war!are) as one side is "ein' &ressed to the &oint o! no return) the (%assi(
maneuver is to marsha% a%% avai%a"%e stren'th !or an o!!ensive desi'ned to turn the tide*
The o!!ensive has a hi'h &ro"a"i%it o! mi%itar !ai%ure and) there!ore) wou%d not "e
attem&ted unti% mi%itar de!eat or an una((e&ta"%e &o%iti(a% out(ome a&&eared inevita"%e*
The 'oa% is to in!%i(t a "%ow so stri#in' that it throws the other side o!! "a%an(e* More
im&ortant) it shou%d (reate a (risis o! (on!iden(e in the enem.s (ommand stru(ture and
its &o%iti(a% "ase* 1t shou%d "e a sur&rise atta(#) (ausin' (ommanders to @uestion their
inte%%i'en(e or'ani,ations. a&&re(iation o! the other side.s (ondition* 1t shou%d have a
si'ni!i(ant mi%itar im&a(t* A"ove a%%) it shou%d rede!ine the enem &u"%i(.s &er(e&tion o!
the (ourse o! the war* 1dea%%) it shou%d set the sta'e !or a mi%itar vi(tor ? "ut more
&ro"a"%) it wou%d set the sta'e !or a &o%iti(a% sett%ement*
1n 3e(em"er 8A::) the 2ermans understood the were 'oin' to "e de!eated " the
s&rin' o! 8A:5) when Soviet and An'%o-Ameri(an !or(es wou%d simu%taneous% smash
into 2erman* The 'athered what !or(e the had to attem&t a sur&rise (ounteratta(#*
An'%o-Ameri(an inte%%i'en(e or'ani,ations had (on(%uded that the 2ermans were
!inished* The 2ermans too# advanta'e o! this " stri#in' throu'h the Ardennes !orest*
Their 'oa% was the &ort o! Antwer&*
The !a%% o! Antwer& ? or at %east) the a"i%it to inter!ere with a((ess to the &ort ?
wou%d not have de!eated the A%%ies* ;owever) it wou%d have (onstrained A%%ied o!!ensive
o&erations and !or(ed &ost&onement o! the s&rin' o!!ensive* 1t a%so wou%d have sha#en
the (on!iden(e in the A%%ied hi'h (ommand and "oth Rooseve%t and Chur(hi%%* The
une5&e(ted nature o! the o!!ensive wou%d have (reated a &o%iti(a% (risis and o&ened the
door to either a rede!inition o! A%%ied war aims or) &ossi"%) a se&arate &ea(e in the -est*
From a mi%itar stand&oint) the atta(# was a %on' shot) "ut not a &re&osterous one*
;ad the 2ermans (rossed the Meuse River) the (ou%d have a&&roa(hed Antwer& at %east*
1n the event) i! we (onsider the &ani( that 'ri&&ed the A%%ied hi'h (ommand even without
the 2ermans rea(hin' the Meuse) their (rossin' o! it wou%d have had massive
re&er(ussions* -hether it wou%d have had &o%iti(a% (onse@uen(es is un(%ear* As it was) the
o!!ensive !ai%ed in the !irst das* 1t was %i@uidated in a matter o! wee#s) and the war
(on(%uded (atastro&hi(a%% !or 2erman*
A more su((ess!u% e5am&%e o! a termina% o!!ensive was the /orth Nietnamese
o!!ensive in Fe"ruar 8A6G* The Johnson administration had "een ar'uin') with some
%o'i() that the /orth Nietnamese !or(es were "ein' worn down e!!e(tive% " the +nited
States) and that the were on the de!ensive and de(%inin'* The Tet o!!ensive was intended
to reverse the wanin' !ortunes o! the /orth Nietnamese* There were a num"er o! 'oa%s*
First and !oremost) the o!!ensive was desi'ned to demonstrate to a%% &arties that the /orth
Nietnamese retained a massive o!!ensive (a&a"i%it* 1t was intended to drive a wed'e
"etween +*S* (ommanders in Sai'on and the &o%iti(a% %eaders in -ashin'ton "
demonstratin' that the Sai'on (ommand was &rovidin' mis%eadin' ana%sis* Fina%%) it
was intended to drive a wed'e "etween the Johnson administration and the Ameri(an
&u"%i(*
From a stri(t% mi%itar stand&oint) Tet was a (om&%ete disaster* 1t s@uandered
s(ar(e resour(es on an o!!ensive that neither redu(ed +*S* stren'th nor 'ained and he%d
strate'i( o"De(tives* A!ter the o!!ensive was over) the /orth Nietnamese arm was "a(#
where it had started) with !ar !ewer troo&s or su&&%ies*
From the &o%iti(a% &oint o! view) however) it was wi%d% su((ess!u%* A (hasm
o&ened "etween the (ivi%ian %eadershi& in -ashin'ton and 2en* -i%%iam -estmore%and in
Sai'on* -estmore%and.s reDe(tion o! inte%%i'en(e ana%ses &ointin' to an o!!ensive
undermined (on!iden(e in him* Far more im&ortant) Johnson.s s&ee(hes a"out %i'hts at
the end o! the tunne% %ost a%% (redi"i%it) in s&ite o! the !a(t that he wasn.t a%to'ether
wron'* The a&&arent su((ess o! the Tet o!!ensive !or(ed a re-eva%uation o! Ameri(an
strate' in Nietnam) Johnson.s de(ision not to stand !or re-e%e(tion and a 'enera% sense
that the +*S* 'overnment had vast% underestimated the stren'th and tena(it o! the /orth
Nietnamese*
3e(%inin' mi%itar !ortunes !or(e (om"atants to (onsider &o%iti(a% so%utions* At
that &oint) mi%itar a(tion "e(omes !o(used on three thin's:
3emonstratin' to a%% (on(erned that ou retain e!!e(tive o!!ensive (a&a"i%ities*
Convin(in' the enem that a mi%itar so%ution is im&ossi"%e*
Creatin' a &o%iti(a% atmos&here in whi(h ne'otiations andPor mi%itar vi(tor are
&ossi"%e*
1n their Ardennes o!!ensive in 8A::) the 2ermans !ai%ed in the !irst 'oa% and
there!ore (ou%d not a(hieve the others* 1n the (ase o! the Tet o!!ensive) Ameri(ans "e(ame
(onvin(ed that the /orth Nietnamese (ou%d sti%% mount o!!ensives) (ou%d not "e de!eated
and there!ore had to "e ne'otiated with* The ne'otiations and tru(e "ou'ht the /orth
Nietnamese time to re'rou&) rein!or(e and "rin' the war to a satis!a(tor so%ution H!rom
their stand&ointI*
Nietnam.s 'uerri%%a war!are "ears %itt%e resem"%an(e to the massed) (om"ined
arms (on!%i(t in -or%d -ar 11* /either even s%i'ht% re!%e(ts the '%o"a% (overt o!!ensive
mounted " a% 9aeda) nor the asmmetri( res&onse o! the +nited States* /everthe%ess) a%%
wars share (ommon (hara(teristi(s:
A &o%iti(a% o"De(t ? !or e5am&%e) domination o! 0uro&e) uni!i(ation o! Nietnam)
(reation o! radi(a% 1s%amist states in the Mus%im wor%d*
A%% use the mi%itar means at hand to a(hieve these 'oa%s*
1n a%% wars) one side or the other rea(hes a &oint "eond whi(h there is on%
de!eat* That &oint (a%%s !or the !ina% o!!ensive to "e %aun(hed*
The o!!ensive is not ho&e%ess) "ut its ends are &rimari% &o%iti(a% rather than
mi%itar* 1ts 'oa% is to rede!ine the enem.s &s(ho%o' as we%% as "o%ster the
s&irits o! one.s own !or(es*
The #e to su((ess) at that &oint) is two-!o%d* First) the o!!ensive must a&&ear to "e
an on'oin' o&eration* 1t (annot a&&ear to "e a hasti% (ontrived) des&eration move* The
2ermans didn.t su((eed in this at the Batt%e o! the Bu%'e* The /orth Nietnamese did at
Tet* Se(ond) the o!!ensive must have the desired &s(ho%o'i(a% e!!e(t: 1t must reverse the
enem.s e5&e(tation o! vi(tor* The (%aims " (ivi% and mi%itar %eaders on the other side
that the war is under (ontro% must "e dis(redited*
1t has "een our view !or months that the +nited States is winnin' ? not has won
? the +*S*-Dihadist war* 0vents in the re(ent &ast have rein!or(ed our view* 1n 1ra@) !or
e5am&%e) the de(ision " a %ar'e se'ment o! the Sunni %eadershi& to Doin in the &o%iti(a%
&ro(ess has &osed a morta% (ha%%en'e to the Dihadists* The de&end on the Sunni
(ommunit to &rovide san(tuar) re(ruits and su&&%ies* 1! an %ar'e se'ment o! the Sunni
(ommunit a"andons them) their a"i%it to wa'e war ? on the s(a%e it is (urrent% "ein'
wa'ed ? is undermined* The wi%%) however) "e a"%e to sustain a mu(h sma%%er and %ess
&o%iti(a%% si'ni!i(ant s(a%e o! o&erations*
1n the "roader) '%o"a% !i'ht) a% 9aeda (ontinues to !a(e this rea%it* There has not
"een a sin'%e revo%ution overthrowin' a Mus%im 'overnment in !avor o! a radi(a%Pmi%itant
1s%amist re'ime* 1n !a(t) the "u%# o! the Mus%im states are a(tive% (oo&eratin' with the
+nited States* The &rimar intent o! the radi(a% and mi%itant 1s%amists) whi(h is to (reate a
(a%i&hate "ased on at %east one si'ni!i(ant Mus%im state) has "een (om&%ete% thwarted*
This &oint has not "een missed in the 1s%ami( wor%d*
At this &oint) a% 9aeda needs to %aun(h a (ountero!!ensive on a '%o"a% s(a%e that is
desi'ned to demonstrate its via"i%it as a &arami%itar !or(e* 4eo&%e tend to deni'rate the
(om&%e5it o! terrorist o&erations* The (om&%e5it is not in the wi%%in'ness to "%ow
onese%! u&) however ? the (om&%e5it is in a(@uirin' e5&%osives) transmittin' messa'es
internationa%% and 'enera%% 'oin' undete(ted* The A-88 atta(#s were a su&er"%
e5e(uted o&eration* A% 9aeda has set a standard o! (redi"i%it !or itse%!) and to (reate the
reversa% o! !ortunes it re@uires) it must (arr out an o&eration on that order*
Cet sin(e the Se&t* 88 atta(#s) the s(a%e o! a% 9aeda.s o&erations outside the
1s%ami( wor%d has de(%ined* A% 9aeda "ad% needs to re-esta"%ish its (redi"i%it and
re(a&ture its ear%ier momentum " mountin' an atta(# on the s(a%e o! A-88 or "eond*
There is not on% no need to de%a) "ut ever in(entive to move as @ui(#% as &ossi"%e*
The need this !or &o%iti(a% reasons) "ut a%so "e(ause the &ressure !rom nationa%
inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies is su(h that to wait is to ris# %osin' the o&erationa% team Hi! one is
read to stri#eI* 1! the have a nu(%ear wea&on) !or e5am&%e) the %on'er the wait to use
it) the more %i#e% it is to "e (a&tured in transit to its tar'et* The &ressure is on !or a%
9aeda to a(t as @ui(#% and as e!!e(tive% as it (an*
The Fondon atta(#s were a !ai%ure* 1t.s not on% that the Tu"e atta(#s %a(#ed the
!ero(it o! A-88* ;owever tra'i( the %oss o! %i!e) the !irst atta(# was a wor# o! medio(re
e!!e(tiveness) whi%e the BP68 attem&t was a Do#e* The atta(#s e%sewhere) &arti(u%ar% at
Sharm e% Shei#h) were more e!!e(tive) "ut sti%% didn.t rise to the %eve%s re@uired to
esta"%ish (redi"i%it*
-hat a% 9aeda has demonstrated is that its avai%a"%e assets) &arti(u%ar% outside
the 1s%ami( wor%d) %a(# the s#i%% and so&histi(ation to even (ome (%ose to the %eve% o! the
Madrid atta(#s) %et a%one those in /ew Cor#* Their attem&t to in(rease the tem&o o!
o&erations has %ed them to use untrained and unsuita"%e &ersonne%* The have not
a(hieved the &s(ho%o'i(a% ends the wish*
A% 9aeda has one ho&e* 1! the a"i%it to mount modest terrorist o&erations with
in(reased !re@uen( (onvin(es its enemies that it is more via"%e than was thou'ht) at that
&oint the wi%% "e'in to "e su((ess!u%* That &er(e&tion wi%% trans!er to the Mus%im wor%d
and with that) a% 9aeda (ou%d re(over the (redi"i%it it needs to (ontinue to wa'e war* At
the moment) however) that doesn.t seem to "e ha&&enin'* The maDor &o%iti(a% resu%t o!
Fondon) !or e5am&%e) has "een a tenden( amon' Mus%im %eaders to (ondemn the atta(#s
in num"ers and vehemen(e rare% seen "e!ore* A% 9aeda.s '%or das seem to "e "ehind
it*
-hi(h means that a% 9aeda must u& the ante i! the (an* -e do not "e%ieve the
wi%% "e a"%e to do so* More &re(ise%) i! the had the a"i%it) there have "een so man
other moments to have a(ted) it seems odd that the didn.t* -e a%so dou"t that the have
re(ent% a(@uired the means to atta(#* The are under heav &ressure) and it is harder !or
them to 'row than it was "e!ore* There are a% 9aeda sm&athi,ers) "ut a% 9aeda has
maintained its interna% se(urit " not 'rowin'* The are re%in' on untrained
sm&athi,ers to (arr out missions* 1t is hard to "e%ieve that the have mu(h %e!t in their
#it*
Sti%%) the out(ome o! an %ast-dit(h o!!ensive is un(ertain* The ver !a(t that it is
ha&&enin' (an &ani( enem !or(es or drive a wed'e "etween the 'overnment and
mi%itar) and "etween 'overnment and the &u"%i(* Bush.s &o&u%arit is s%i&&in') and the
&er(e&tion that a% 9aeda is wa'in' a su((ess!u% and unsto&&a"%e o!!ensive (ou%d sudden%
undermine his &osition* ;e is vu%nera"%e at the moment* But thus !ar) the attem&t at a
'%o"a% Tet o!!ensive has !ai%ed to rise to the %eve% o! (redi"i%it re@uired* A% 9aeda must
do somethin' o! su"stantia% si'ni!i(an(e "e!ore the summer ends) or see its &osition in
1ra@ and in other &%a(es deteriorate ra&id%*
As with the 2ermans and Nietnamese) a% 9aeda.s time o! morta% (risis is their
time o! ma5imum avai%a"%e e!!ort* -e dou"t that the (an &u%% this o!!) "ut we wi%% wait
unti% Se&tem"er to see*
Atta(#in' into the 4ramid
6uy 28, 2008
1n our 2eo&o%iti(a% 1nte%%i'en(e Re&ort ear%ier this wee#) we &ro&osed that a%
9aeda is en'a'in' in the terrorist e@uiva%ent o! a Tet O!!ensive: %aun(hin' a series o!
atta(#s ? some si'ni!i(ant) others mere &so&s ? in an e!!ort to turn the tide o! a war it
has "een %osin'* Certain%) there is eviden(e o! su(h a shi!t at the strate'i( %eve%) in terms
o! the num"er and &a(e o! o&erations around the '%o"e) "ut at the ta(ti(a% %eve% there
a&&ears to "e a wides&read (ase o! "usiness as usua%*
Fet.s ta#e a moment to e5amine that statement* A% 9aeda has ta#en some heav
hits in the &ast !ew ears) %osin' a num"er o! hi'h-va%ue o&eratives ? &%anners and
ta(ti(ians su(h as Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed) ;am"a%i) A"u FarD a%-Fi"i and Mohammad
/aeem /oor Khan* This %i#e% has (ontri"uted) at %east in &art) to &er(e&tions that it is
%osin' its ed'e ? turnin' to &oor% trained %o(a% sm&athi,ers to (arr out atta(#s) su(h
as the Ju% B "om"in's in Fondon) or the more re(ent series o! e5&%osions in Sharm e%-
Shei#h) 0'&t*
The truth o! the matter) however) is that this is how a% 9aeda has o&erated
throu'hout its histor ? with the nota"%e e5(e&tion o! the Se&t* 88 stri#es* The Ju% B
atta(#s in Fondon were Darrin' to -esterners "e(ause most o! the sui(ide "om"ers were
British-"orn (iti,ens atta(#in' on their home soi%* 1n !a(t) most a% 9aeda atta(#s ?
ran'in' !rom the 8AAG em"ass "om"in's in 0ast A!ri(a to the Kho"ar Towers atta(#s to
the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center stri#e to the Ba%i ni'ht(%u"s ? have "een (arried out "
%o(a%s) with the he%& o! an a% 9aeda o&erationa% %eader*
-oven throu'hout this histor o! dead% su((esses are a series o! e@ua%% nota"%e)
and at times a%most %au'ha"%e) !ai%ures) su(h that even the a"orted Ju% 68 atta(#s a'ainst
the Tu"e in Fondon don.t rea%% seem sur&risin'* At one &oint) !or e5am&%e) the storied
A"de% Basit ? a*#*a* Ram,i Couse! ? and his assistant A"du% ;a#im Murad (au'ht
themse%ves on !ire in Mani%a whi%e (oo#in' a "at(h o! tria(etone tri&ero5ide* A !air
num"er o! 67-watt a(tors ? with names %i#e Ahmad ADaD) Ri(hard Reid and Ahmed
Ressam ? who rendered themse%ves ine!!e(tive throu'h "um"%in' have a%was "een &art
o! the 'rou&*
At the ta(ti(a% %eve%) we are seein' a shi!t Hand with 'ood reasonI awa !rom the
e%a"orate) 'randiose #i%%in' s(hemes that (hara(teri,ed AP88 and various &re(ursor &%ots)
su(h as O&eration BoDin#a) in !avor o! the sim&%e and uti%itarian ? i! sti%% (oordinated ?
stri#e* As a ru%e) a% 9aeda &%anners seem to have ado&ted the ru%e that =%ess is more*>
The %oss o! what mi'ht "e (a%%ed ta(ti(a% so&histi(ation) however) does not
ne(essari% mean that a% 9aeda is now 'as&in' its %ast as an or'ani,ation* The Tet-%i#e
o!!ensive) o"vious%) is meant to he%& the 'rou& re'ain (redi"i%it and some o! its ear%ier
momentum) whi(h eventua%% (ou%d %ead to 'rowth or re'eneration* But even i! it !ai%s in
that e!!ort) the (urrent trend ? shou%d it ho%d ? &oints toward a !undamenta% inte%%i'en(e
&ro"%em and a (ru(ia% shi!t in the wa the war a'ainst a% 9aeda is !ou'ht) rather than the
end o! !i'htin' itse%!*
For &ur&oses o! this dis(ussion) it is use!u% to thin# o! a% 9aeda in terms o! a
&ramid* The a&e5 o! its %eadershi& ? Osama "in Faden) Aman a%-Jawahiri and others
#nown to the wor%d throu'h video (%i&s ? are on the run) "e%ieved to "e hidin' in
4a#istan or adDa(ent areas o! southwest Asia* The midd%e %aer is &o&u%ated " ta(ti(a%
(ommanders) (ouriers and %o'isti(a% &%anners ? (onne(ted) #now%ed'ea"%e) we%%-trained
and hi'h-va%ue o&eratives who) %o'i( ar'ues) must "e sma%% in num"er in order to
maintain o&erationa% se(urit !or the 'rou&* 1t is this %aer that has "een heavi% tar'eted
" (overt inte%%i'en(e and se(urit a'en(ies) !or o"vious reasons: These o&eratives are the
#e to redu(in' "oth the num"ers o! atta(#s and the worst o! the (arna'e*
At the "ottom o! the &ramid are a% 9aeda.s !oot so%diers* These are %o(a%
sm&athi,ers and mi%itants with rudimentar trainin') those who waste themse%ves in
sui(ide atta(#s or (an "e (ut %oose i! arrested and @uestioned) with %itt%e im&a(t to the rest
o! the or'ani,ation* This is a !inite "ut sti%% si'ni!i(ant sea o! &otentia% sus&e(ts) throu'h
whi(h move the %i#es o! Mohammed Sidi@ue Khan ? the a&&arent rin'%eader o! the Ju%
B sui(ide (e%% ? who ma have attra(ted the noti(e o! authorities in the &ast) "ut then
"een dismissed as a &otentia% threat* 1t a%so %i#e% is home to others who %ive (om&%ete%
"e%ow the radar ? name%ess) to the wider wor%d) unti% a!ter the "om"s detonate*
Jud'in' !rom the t&es and re%ative sim&%i(it o! the atta(#s now "ein' (arried
out) we (an theori,e that a (ertain amount o! attrition has o((urred within a% 9aeda.s
midd%e (ommand tier* The im&a(t o! that attrition is &erha&s "est i%%ustrated " the a%-
;indi ta#edown ? &art o! a %ar'er ro%%u& o! a% 9aeda o&eratives that tri''ered a
hei'htened se(urit a%ert on the 0ast Coast o! the +nited States %ast ear*
3hiren Barot) "etter #nown " his nom de 'uerre A"u 0isa a%-;indi) is "e%ieved to
have "een a re'iona% mi%itant (ommander o&eratin' out o! Britain and &ro"a"% the
+nited States* Between Au'ust 6777 and A&ri% 6778) a%-;indi is "e%ieved to have
(ondu(ted survei%%an(e on severa% %andmar#s in /ew Cor# Cit) /ewar#) /*J*) and
-ashin'ton) 3*C* ? in(%udin' the wor%d head@uarters o! the 1nternationa% Monetar
Fund and the -or%d Ban#) 4rudentia% Cor&orate 4%a,a) the /ew Cor# Sto(# 05(han'e
and Citi'rou& Centre* Authorities dis(overed eviden(e o! ver serious en'ineerin'-t&e
survei%%an(e !o(usin' on the desi'n o! the "ui%din's* This is suited !or one &ur&ose ? to
"rin' them down*
An a%-;indi ? the %i#es o! whom &o&u%ate the midd%e tier o! the &ramid ? is
ver un%i#e% to "e !ound ta#in' &art in the a(tua% o&erations o! a &%ot) "ut instead wou%d
transmit &%ans and instru(tions throu'h a !ie%d (ommand to the !oot so%diers who (arr
out atta(#s* ;ad the &%ans he was he%&in' to !oment "een (arried out) the e(onomi( and
&s(ho%o'i(a% im&a(t wou%d have "een @uite serious ? &erha&s riva%in' that o! AP88*
Contrast that) then) with the Tu"e atta(#s in Fondon* 1n the BPB atta(#s) the
"om"ers (ommitted a num"er o! easi% avoided vio%ations o! o&erationa% se(urit ?
in(%udin' (arrin' their own identi!i(ation do(uments ? stru(# at &oor% de!ended
H=so!t>I tar'ets) and detonated their e5&%osives in was that) whi%e dead%) did not in!%i(t
the 'reatest dama'e or %oss o! %i!e &ossi"%e under the (ir(umstan(es*
From these e5am&%es and others) it a&&ears that a% 9aeda has su!!ered a rather
serious de(%ine in the @ua%it ? thou'h not ne(essari% the @uantit ? o! its o&erationa%
assets) whi(h in turn &oints toward a de(%ine in its e!!e(tiveness as a strate'i( !or(e
wie%din' in!%uen(e over wor%d events Hthou'h not) on the who%e) as an or'ani,ation
(a&a"%e o! vio%en(eI* On a re%ated note) it a%so a&&ears that nationa% inte%%i'en(e and
se(urit a'en(ies) in the +nited States and e%sewhere) who have ta#en =&reventin' the
ne5t AP88> as their &rimar mission have "een su((ess!u%) at %east so !ar*
But herein %ies the &ro"%em* The midd%e %aer o! the &ramid ? that (onsistin' o!
hi'h% s#i%%ed o&eratives ? mi'ht "e serious% dama'ed) "ut it has not et "een
e%iminated* -e stron'% sus&e(t the e5isten(e o! an a% 9aeda ='host> ? a hi'h-va%ue
o&erative) %i#e% someone with dua% nationa%it or mu%ti&%e &ass&orts ? who is sti%% a"%e
to move !rom (e%% to (e%% or at %east transmit si'na%s to %o(a% 'rou&s awaitin' a ='o> order
to (arr out a stri#e* 2overnment-run inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies have sus&e(ted the same) and
M15 a(tua%% identi!ied a &ossi"%e 'host) named on a terrorism wat(h %ist) who entered
and %e!t Britain short% "e!ore the Ju% B atta(#s* Cet the a'en( a%so si'na%ed) three
wee#s &rior to the event) that there were =no #nown threats> to wor%d %eaders who wou%d
"e attendin' the 2-G summit in S(ot%and at that time* C%ear%) the inte%%i'en(e &u,,%e is
not et (om&%ete*
The inte%%i'en(e di%emmas and !ai%ures are ma'ni!ied at the !oot-so%dier %eve%*
A'ain) usin' the Fondon (ase as an e5am&%e) (onsider that Khan and &ossi"% other
mem"ers o! his (e%% had "een investi'ated ? and then dismissed as &otentia% threats ?
&rior to the atta(#s* This ana%sis mi'ht have "een wron' on its !a(e or utter% (orre(t at
the time ? "ut the threat is no more stati( than human "ein's themse%ves*
At its sim&%est %eve%) the di%emma is mathemati(a%: There are too man &otentia%
tar'ets) whi(h (ost too mu(h to !u%% de!end) with too !ew 'overnment resour(es) a'ainst
too %ar'e a universe o! &otentia% a(tors ? the "ottom tier o! the &ramid* -ithout
si'ni!i(ant he%& !rom human inte%%i'en(e sour(es ? and a 'reat dea% o! %u(# ? it is a%%
"ut im&ossi"%e to &revent some !orms o! terrorist atta(#s He5em&%i!ied " FondonI* The
"est an 'overnment inte%%i'en(e or se(urit !or(e (an do is to de!end the hi'hest-va%ue
tar'ets and ta#e &ains to miti'ate) rather than &revent) the dama'e or %oss o! %i!e
e%sewhere*
1nte%%i'en(e !ai%ures o((ur !or a variet o! reasons "ut a%most a%was "oi% down to
a %a(# o! ta(ti(a% ana%sis) %a(# o! humint needed to deve%o& su!!i(ient detai% to thwart an
atta(#) and !ai%ure to identi! and &enetrate terrorist (e%%s ? a'ain) due to a dearth o!
a(tiona"%e in!ormation*
/ationa% and internationa% se(urit a'en(ies (an "e e5&e(ted to (ontinue !o(usin'
e!!orts a'ainst the hi'h-va%ue 'hosts who haunt the midd%e tier o! a% 9aeda.s stru(ture)
"ut even a (om&%ete ru&ture o! strate'i( (ommuni(ations "etween the a&e5 and "ottom
tier o! the &ramid wou%d not) in our view) &ut an end to the wider war at the ta(ti(a%
%eve%* For that) the #e is 'oin' to "e nothin' more ? and nothin' %ess ? than o%d-
!ashioned (oo&eration and human inte%%i'en(e at the 'rassroots %eve%*
Four Cears On: -ho is -innin' the -ar) and ;ow Can Anone Te%%<
Sept) 17, 2008
Four ears have &assed sin(e a% 9aeda atta(#ed the +nited States* 1t is di!!i(u%t to
remem"er a war o! whi(h the status has "een more di!!i(u%t to assess* 1ndeed) there are
reasona"%e &eo&%e who ar'ue that the (on!%i(t "etween the +nited States and a% 9aeda is
not a war at a%%) and that thin#in' o! it in those terms o"s(ures rea%it* Other reasona"%e
&eo&%e ar'ue that it is on% in thin#in' in terms o! war that the (on!%i(t ma#es sense ?
and these &eo&%e then divide into 'rou&s: those who "e%ieve the +nited States is winnin'
and those who "e%ieve it is %osin' the war* 1nto this (on!usion we must add the @uestion o!
whether the 1ra@ war is &art o! what +*S* 4resident 2eor'e -* Bush re!ers to as the =war
on terrorism> and what others mi'ht (a%% the war a'ainst a% 9aeda* 0ven the issues are not
(%ear* 1t is a war in whi(h no one (an a'ree even on the (riteria !or su((ess or !ai%ure) or at
times) who is on what side*
4art o! this di%emma is sim&% the resu%t o! &artisan &o%iti(s* 1t is a mth that
Ameri(ans unite in times o! war: Anone who "e%ieves the do must read the histor o!)
!or e5am&%e) the Me5i(an -ar* Ameri(ans are a !ra(tious &eo&%e and) whi%e the were
united durin' -or%d -ar 11) the &o%iti(a% re(riminations were on% de%aed ? not
sus&ended* The issue here is not &artisanshi&) however) "ut rather that there is no (%ear
!ramewor# a'ainst whi(h to Dud'e the (urrent war*
Fet us "e'in with what we a%% ? save !or those who "e%ieve that the Se&t* 88
atta(#s were a &%ot hat(hed " the +*S* 'overnment to Dusti! the 4ATR1OT A(t ? (an
a'ree on:
A% 9aeda atta(#ed the +nited States on Se&t* 88) 6778) " hiDa(#in' air(ra!t and
(rashin' or trin' to (rash them into we%%-#nown "ui%din's*
Sin(e Se&t* 88) there have "een a% 9aeda atta(#s in 0uro&e and severa% Mus%im
(ountries) "ut not in the +nited States*
The +nited States invaded A!'hanistan a month a!ter the stri#es a'ainst the -or%d
Trade Center and the 4enta'on ? !or(in' the Ta%i"an 'overnment out o! the
maDor (ities) "ut not de!eatin' them* The +nited States has !ai%ed to (a&ture
Osama "in Faden) a%thou'h it (a&tured other #e a% 9aeda o&eratives* The Ta%i"an
have re'rou&ed and are now (ondu(tin' an insur'en( in A!'hanistan*
The +nited States invaded 1ra@ in 677E* The Bush administration (%aimed that this
was &art o! the war a'ainst a% 9aedaK (riti(s have (%aimed it had nothin' to do
with the war*
The +nited States !ai%ed to win the war ra&id%) as it had e5&e(ted to do* 1nstead)
+*S* !or(es en(ountered a di!!i(u%t 'uerri%%a war that) whi%e (on!ined 'enera%% to
the Sunni re'ions) neverthe%ess &osed serious mi%itar and &o%iti(a% (ha%%en'es*
A% 9aeda has !ai%ed to a(hieve its &rimar &o%iti(a% 'oa% ? that is) to tri''er an
u&risin' in at %east one maDor Mus%im (ountr and (reate a Dihadist re'ime* There
has "een no 'enera% risin' in the Mus%im wor%d) and most 'overnments are now
(oo&eratin' with the +nited States*
There have "een no !o%%ow-on atta(#s in the +nited States sin(e Se&t* 88* -hether
this is "e(ause a% 9aeda had no &%ans !or a se(ond atta(# or "e(ause su"se@uent
atta(#s were disru&ted " +*S* inte%%i'en(e is not (%ear*
This is not intended to "e an e5haustive %ist) "ut rather to &rovide what we wou%d
re'ard as a non-(ontroversia% "ase !rom whi(h to &ro(eed with an assessment*
From the "e'innin') then) it has "een un(%ear whether the +nited States saw itse%!
as !i'htin' a war a'ainst a% 9aeda or as (arrin' out a (rimina% investi'ation* The two
are) o! (ourse) enormous% di!!erent* This is a (riti(a% &ro"%em*
The administration.s use o! the term =war on terrorism> "e'an the (on!usion*
Terrorism is a mode o! war!are* Save !or those instan(es when %unati(s %i#e Timoth
M(Nei'h use it as an end in itse%!) terrorism is a method o! intimidatin' the (ivi%ian
&o&u%ation in order to drive a wed'e "etween the &u"%i( and their 'overnment* A% 9aeda)
then) had a &o%iti(a% &ur&ose in usin' terrorism) as did the British in their ni'httime
"om"in' o! 2erman or the 2ermans in their air raids a'ainst Fondon* The &ro"%em in
the Bush administration.s use o! this term is that ou do not wa'e a war a'ainst a method
o! war!are* A war is wa'ed a'ainst an enem !or(e*
/ow) there are those who ar'ue that war is somethin' that ta#es &%a(e "etween
nation-states and that a% 9aeda) not "ein' a nation-state) is not wa'in' war* -e tend to
disa'ree with this view* A% 9aeda is not a nation-state) "ut it was a (oherent) dis(i&%ined
!or(e usin' vio%en(e !or &o%iti(a% ends* The +nited States) " !o(usin' on the =war on
terror)> (on!used the issue end%ess%* But the (riti(s o! the war) who insisted that wartime
measures were unne(essar "e(ause this was not a war) (om&ounded the (on!usion* B
the time we were done) the =war on terror> had e5tended itse%! to in(%ude (am&ai'ns
a'ainst anima% ri'hts 'rou&s) and attem&ts to &revent terror atta(#s were seen as
vio%ations o! human ri'hts " the ACF+*
1t is odd to raise these &oints at the "e'innin' o! an ana%sis o! a war) "ut no war
(an "e !ou'ht when there isn.t even (%arit a"out what it is ou are doin') %et a%one who
ou are !i'htin'* Cet that is &re(ise% how this war evo%ved) and then de'enerated into
(on(e&tua% (haos* The who%e issue a%so 'ot "ound u& with interna% name-(a%%in') to the
&oint that an assertion that Bush had some idea o! what he was doin' was seen as
outra'eous &artisanshi&) and the assertion that Bush was !ai%in' in what he was doin' was
viewed the same wa* -here there is no (%arit) there (an "e no (riteria !or su((ess or
!ai%ure* That is the (risis toda* /o one a'rees as to what is ha&&enin'K there!ore) no one
(an e5&%ain who is winnin' or %osin'*
Out o! this situation (ame the dee&er (on!usion: 1ra@* From the "e'innin') it was
not (%ear wh the +nited States invaded 1ra@* The Bush administration o!!ered three
e5&%anations: First) that there were wea&ons o! mass destru(tion in 1ra@K se(ond) that 1ra@
was (om&%i(it with a% 9aedaK and !ina%%) that a demo(rati( 1ra@ ? and (reation o! a
demo(rati( Mus%im wor%d ? wou%d he%& to sto& terrorism Hor more &re(ise%) a% 9aedaI*
The three e5&%anations were untena"%e on their !a(e* Contrar to mth) the Bush
administration did not rush to 'o to war in 1ra@* The administration had "een ta%#in'
a"out it !or near% a ear "e!ore the invasion "e'an* That wou%d not have "een the (ase i!
there tru% was a !ear that the 1ra@is mi'ht "e (a&a"%e o! "ui%din' atomi( "om"s) sin(e
the mi'ht hurr u& and "ui%d them* Cou don.t 'ive a heads-u& in that situation* The
+nited States did* ;en(e) it wasn.t a"out -M3* Se(ond) it wasn.t a"out 1ra@.s terrorist
ties* Saddam ;ussein had no &ro"%em with the (on(e&t o! terrorism) "ut he was an
ideo%o'i(a% enem o! everthin' "in Faden stood !or* ;ussein was a se(u%ar mi%itaristK "in
Faden) a re%i'ious ideo%o'ue* Coo&eration "etween them wasn.t %i#e%) and &ointin' to
o"s(ure meetin's that Mohammed Atta ma or ma not have had with an 1ra@i in 4ra'ue
didn.t ma#e the (ase* Fina%%) the demo(ra( e5&%anation (ame %ate in the 'ame* Bush had
(am&ai'ned a'ainst nation-"ui%din' in &%a(es %i#e Kosovo ? and i! he now "e%ieved in
nation-"ui%din' as a Dusti!i(ation !or war) it meant he stood with Bi%% C%inton* ;e dod'ed
that (riti(ism) thou'h) "e(ause the media (ou%dn.t remem"er Kosovo or s&e%% it anmore
" the time 1ra@ ro%%ed around*
Bush.s enemies ar'ued that he invaded 1ra@ in order to HaI aven'e the !a(t that
;ussein had tried to #i%% his !atherK H"I as &art o! a %on'-term strate' &%anned ears
"e!ore to dominate the Midd%e 0astK H(I to dominate a%% o! the oi% in 1ra@K HdI "e(ause he
was a "ad man or HeI Dust "e(ause* The !a(t was that his (riti(s had no idea wh he did it
and 'enerated !antasti( theories "e(ause the (ou%dn.t !i'ure it out an more than Bush
(ou%d e5&%ain it*
STRATFOR readers #now our view was that the invasion o! 1ra@ was intended to
serve three &ur&oses:
To "rin' &ressure on the Saudi 'overnment) whi(h was a%%owin' Saudis to !unne%
mone to a% 9aeda) to ha%t this ena"%ement and to (oo&erate with +*S*
inte%%i'en(e* The &resen(e o! +*S* troo&s to the north o! Saudi Ara"ia was
intended to drive home the seriousness o! the situation*
To ta#e (ontro% o! the most strate'i( (ountr in the Midd%e 0ast ? 1ra@ "orders
seven (riti(a% (ountries ? and to use it as a "ase o! o&erations a'ainst other
(ountries that were (oo&eratin' with a% 9aeda*
To demonstrate in the Mus%im wor%d that the Ameri(an re&utation !or wea#ness
and inde(isiveness ? we%%-earned in the two de(ades &rior to the Se&t* 88 atta(#s
? was no %on'er va%id* The +nited States was aware that the invasion o! 1ra@
wou%d enra'e the Mus%im wor%d) "ut "an#ed on it a%so !ri'htenin' them*
Fet.s &ut it this wa: The #e to understandin' the situation was that Bush wanted
to "%a(#mai% the Saudis) use 1ra@ as a mi%itar "ase and terri! Mus%ims* ;e wanted to do
this) "ut he did not want to admit this was what he was doin'* ;e there!ore &rovided
im&%ausi"%e Dusti!i(ations) o&eratin' under the theor that a ra&id vi(tor "rushes aside
trou"%in' @uestions* C%inton had 'otten out o! Kosovo without e5&%ainin' wh si'ns o!
'eno(ide were never !ound) "e(ause the war was over @ui(#% and everone was si(# o!
it* Bush !i'ured he wou%d do the same thin' in 1ra@*
1t was &re(ise% at this &oint that the situation 'ot out o! (ontro%* The "i''est
inte%%i'en(e !ai%ure o! the +nited States was not A-88 ? on% Monda mornin'
@uarter"a(#s (an (%aim that the wou%d have s&otted a% 9aeda.s &%ot and "een a"%e to
"%o(# it* /or was the !ai%ure to !ind -M3 in 1ra@* /ot on% was that not the &oint) "ut
a(tua%%) everone was (ertain that ;ussein at %east had (hemi(a% wea&ons* 0ven the
Fren(h "e%ieved he did* The "i''est mista#e was the inte%%i'en(e that said that the 1ra@is
wou%dn.t !i'ht) that +*S* !or(es wou%d "e we%(omed or at %east not 'reeted hosti%e% "
the 1ra@i &u"%i() and that the end o! the (onventiona% (om"at wou%d end the war*
That was the rea%% si'ni!i(ant inte%%i'en(e !ai%ure* ;ussein) or at %east some o! his
#e (ommanders) had &re&ared !or a &rotra(ted 'uerri%%a war* The #new &er!e(t% we%%
that the +nited States wou%d (rush their (onventiona% !or(es) so the (reated the materia%
and !inan(ia% "asis !or a &rotra(ted 'uerri%%a war* +*S* inte%%i'en(e did not see this
(omin') and thus had not &re&ared the +*S* !or(e !or !i'htin' the 'uerri%%a war* 1ndeed) i!
the had #nown this was (omin') Bush mi'ht we%% have (a%(u%ated di!!erent% on
invadin' 1ra@ ? sin(e he wasn.t 'oin' to 'et the de(isive vi(tor he needed*
The inte%%i'en(e !ai%ure was (om&ounded " a (ommand !ai%ure* B mid-A&ri%
677E) it was evident to STRATFOR that a 'uerri%%a war was startin'* 3ona%d Rums!e%d
(ontinued vi'orous% to den that an su(h war was 'oin' on* 1t was not unti% Ju%) when
2en* Tomm Fran#s was re%ieved " John A"i,aid as Centra% Command (hie!) that the
+nited States admitted the o"vious* Those were the :5-67 (riti(a% das* 1nte%%i'en(e
!ai%ures ha&&en in ever war) worse than this one) "ut the de%a in re(o'ni,in' what was
ha&&enin' ? the e5tended denia% in the 4enta'on ? e%iminated an (han(e o! ni&&in' it
in the "ud* B the summer o! 677E) the war was ra'in') and !orei'n Dihadists had "e'un
Doinin' in* O"vious% this in(reased anti-Ameri(an sentiment) "ut not ne(essari%
e!!e(tive anti-Ameri(an sentiment* ;atin' the +nited States is not the same as "ein' a"%e
to run se(ure (overt o&erations in the +nited States*
The war did not and does not (over most o! 1ra@.s territor* On% a re%ative%
sma%% &ortion is invo%ved ? the Sunni re'ions* At this &oint) the administration has done
a !air% 'ood Do" in (reatin' a &o%iti(a% &ro(ess and "rin'in' the Sunni e%ders to the ta"%e)
i! not to an a'reement that wi%% end the insur'en(* But the &ro"%em is that Ameri(an
e5&e(tations a"out the war have "een so stran'e% set that whatever esoteri( satis!a(tion
e5&erts mi'ht ta#e in the evo%ution) it is (%ear that this war is not what the Bush
administration e5&e(ted) that it is not what the administration was &re&ared to !i'ht) and
that the administration is now in a &osition where it has to ma#e (om&romises rather than
im&ose its wi%%*
-e "e%ieve that a war started on Se&t* 88) 6778* -e "e%ieve that !rom a stri(t%
o&erationa% &oint o! view) a% 9aeda has 'otten " !ar the worst o! it* ;avin' stru(# the
!irst "%ow) a% 9aeda has "een (ri&&%ed) with ea(h su((eedin' atta(# wea#er and wea#er*
-e a%so thin# that the +*S* invasion o! 1ra@ a(hieved at %east one o! -ashin'ton.s 'oa%s:
Saudi Ara"ia has "ehaved mu(h di!!erent% sin(e Fe"ruar 677E* But the on'oin' war has
undermined the a"i%it o! the +nited States to use 1ra@ as a "ase o! o&erations in the
re'ion) and the &s(ho%o'i(a% out(ome -ashin'ton was ho&in' !or o"vious% didn.t
materia%i,e*
-hat &ro'ress there has "een is invisi"%e) !or two reasons* First) the Bush
administration had (ra!ted an e5&%anation !or the entire war that was "ased on two
&remises ? !irst) that the Ameri(an &u"%i( wou%d remain united on a%% measures
ne(essar a!ter Se&t* 88) and se(ond) that the +nited States wou%d a(hieve a @ui(# vi(tor
in 1ra@) s&arin' the administration the need to e5&%ain itse%!* As a resu%t) Bush has never
arti(u%ated a (oherent strate'i( &osition* Furthermore) as the se(ond &remise &roved
untrue) the !ai%ure to enun(iate a (oherent strate'i( vision "e'an to undermine the !irst
&remise ? nationa% unit* At this &oint) Bush is "e'innin' to !a(e (riti(ism in his own
&art* Sen* Chu(# ;a'e%.s statement) that the &romise to sta the (ourse does not
(onstitute a strate') is indi(ative o! Bush.s maDor &ro"%em*
The &resident.s di%emma) now) is this* ;e had a strate'* ;e !ai%ed to e5&%ain what
it was "e(ause doin' so wou%d have (arried a (ost) and the &resident assumed it was
unne(essar* 1t turned out to "e ne(essar) "ut he sti%% didn.t enun(iate a strate' "e(ause
it wou%d at that &oint have a&&eared (ontrived* Moreover) as time went on) the strate'
had to evo%ve* 1t is hard to evo%ve an unarti(u%ated strate'* Bush ri'idi!ied &u"%i(% even
as his strate' in 1ra@ "e(ame more nim"%e*
Fi'urin' out how the war is 'oin' !our ears a!ter A-88) then) is %i#e a ni'htmare
!i'htin' 'hosts* The &re&osterous de!ense o! +*S* strate' meets the &re&osterous atta(#
on +*S* strate': C%aims that the +nited States invaded 1ra@ to "rin' demo(ra( to the
&eo&%e (om&etes with the idea that it invaded in order to 'ive (ontra(ts to ;a%%i"urton*
/othin' is too &re&osterous to (%aim*
But even as +*S* &o%iti(s sei,e u& in one o! these &eriodi( s&asms) these !a(ts are
sti%% (%ear:
The +nited States has not "een atta(#ed in !our ears*
/o Mus%im 'overnment has !a%%en to su&&orters o! a% 9aeda*
The +nited States has won in neither 1ra@ nor A!'hanistan*
Bin Faden is sti%% !ree and read to 'o e5tra rounds*
So !ar) neither side has won ? "ut on the who%e) we.d sa the +nited States has
the ed'e* The war is "ein' !ou'ht outside the +nited States* And that is not a trivia% &oint*
But it is not et a so%ution to the &resident.s &ro"%ems*
A% 9aedaMs Conne(tion to the Fondon Bom"ers
Sept) 21, 2008
British &o%i(e re%eased survei%%an(e !oota'e Se&t* 67 that the sa shows
Mohammad Sidi@ue Khan) Sheh,ad Tanweer and 2ermaine Findsa (ondu(tin' a dr
run in &re&aration !or the Ju% B Fondon "om"in's* The ta&e) re(orded June 6G) shows
the three men enterin' Futon station "e!ore trave%in' to Kin'.s Cross station ? the same
routes the too# Ju% B*
Citin' a %a(# o! a dire(t !orensi( %in# "etween the "om"ers and #nown a% 9aeda
o&eratives) some in the inte%%i'en(e and %aw en!or(ement (ommunit have su''ested that
the +nder'round "om"ers were not (onne(ted to a% 9aeda and that) " (%aimin'
res&onsi"i%it !or the atta(#) de&ut a% 9aeda %eader Aman a%-Jawahiri attem&ted to 'ive
the networ# undue (redit* A%thou'h the !our "om"ers !air% (ertain% had no dire(t
(onne(tion to the hi'her-%eve% a% 9aeda %eadershi&) the methods used in the atta(# su''est
that it was an a% 9aeda o&eration and san(tioned " the networ#.s %eadershi&*
The !a(t that a rehearsa% did ta#e &%a(e "e!ore the a(tua% atta(# demonstrates that
the o&eratives were not (om&%ete novi(es ? as some a%so have su''ested ? "ut that the
some de'ree o! trainin' and or'ani,ation* Moreover) sta'in' a &ra(ti(e run is (onsistent
with the #ind o! meti(u%ous &%annin' that has (hara(teri,ed %ar'e-s(a%e a% 9aeda
o&erations* Simi%ar dr runs and &re-o&erationa% survei%%an(e were (arried out "e!ore the
Au'ust 8AAG "om"in's o! the +*S* 0m"assies in Kena and Tan,ania) and the Se&t* 88
atta(#s* The "om"in' o! 4hi%i&&ine Air%ines !%i'ht :E: in 3e(em"er 8AA: a%so was a dr
run !or a more am"itious a% 9aeda o&eration (odenamed =BoDin#o> ? a &%an to "om"
mu%ti&%e air&%anes simu%taneous% over the 4a(i!i( O(ean*
Khan) the a%%e'ed %eader o! the Ju% B "om"ers) made a videota&e "e!ore the
o&eration in whi(h he e5&%ains his motivation !or (arrin' out the atta(#* Khan &ossi"%
made his statement whi%e in 4a#istan) where he is a%%e'ed to have trave%ed in 677: to
meet with a% 9aeda o&eratives* A se(ond se'ment o! the same ta&e (ontained an a%-
Jawahiri statement in whi(h he &raised the atta(#) "ut sto&&ed short o! (%aimin' (redit ?
&ossi"% "e(ause it had not et ha&&ened* A%-Jawahiri.s &resen(e on the Khan ta&e)
whi(h Ara" sate%%ite te%evision A% Ja,eera aired Se&t* 8) is another %in# "etween the Ju% B
atta(# and the a% 9aeda %eadershi& ? a%thou'h it shou%d "e noted that the two never
a&&ear to'ether in the ta&e* 1n addition) a%-Jawahiri has a&&eared in two other ta&es in
whi(h he s&ea#s o! the Fondon "om"in's* 1n the %atest one) re%eased Se&t* 8A) he (%ear%
(%aims res&onsi"i%it !or the atta(#s on "eha%! o! a% 9aeda ? somethin' the Dihadist
networ# rare% does*
An a% 9aeda o&eration as im&ortant as an atta(# a'ainst a -estern (a&ita%
(ertain% wou%d have the !ore#now%ed'e and "%essin' o! the networ#.s hi'hest %eadershi&*
0ven thou'h the %eaders #new o! and endorsed the o&eration) however) the wou%d not
ne(essari% have had dire(t (onta(t with the o&eratives who (arried out the atta(#* The
%i#e% re(eived re&orts on the &ro'ress o! the o&eration and issued orders to at %east one
mid-%eve% o&erative or ta(ti(a% (ommander) who in turn su&ervised and hand%ed the
atta(#ers) in(%udin' Khan* A%thou'h not invo%ved with the ta(ti(a% detai%s o! their atta(#s)
a% 9aeda %eadershi& has a%was had a ro%e in the o&erations* Khan) whose ro%e in the
or'ani,ation wou%d have "een that o! a !oot so%dier) wou%d &ro"a"% not have met a%
Jawahiri or a% 9aeda %eader Osama "in Faden*
A% 9aeda is simi%ar to the Ma!ia) in that !oot-so%diers 'enera%% are not 'ranted the
&rivi%e'e o! meetin' the 'od!ather immediate% a!ter the are indu(ted into the !ami%*
This is es&e(ia%% true !or a% 9aeda) sin(e the &ost-Se&t* 88 environment has !or(ed senior
a% 9aeda mem"ers to dramati(a%% in(rease their o&erationa% se(urit* 1n this (ase) in
whi(h the ='od!ather> is the wor%d.s most wanted man) the !oot so%diers wou%d not "e
a%%owed near him un%ess a dire o&erationa% need arose*
The survei%%an(e ima'es o! the Ju% B "om"ers. dr run &rovide !urther eviden(e
o! a% 9aeda %in#s with the dead% atta(#* The (amera re(ordin's a%so show that) des&ite
di!!i(u%ties in (ommuni(atin' and o&eratin' sin(e the O(to"er 6778 +*S*-%ed invasion o!
its home "ase in A!'hanistan) a% 9aeda sti%% retains enou'h (ommand-and-(ontro%
(a&a"i%it to sta'e the o((asiona% %ar'e-s(a%e atta(# a'ainst a -estern (it*
A% 9aeda: From Or'ani,ation to Movement<
Sept) 22, 2008
As our %on'time readers are %i#e% aware) STRATFOR a&&roa(hes ana%sis with a
=net assessment> mode% o! the wor%d: an interna% de!inition o! how thin's are and the #e
trends drivin' deve%o&ments at an 'iven time* A net assessment is mu(h more than an
intuitive ='ut !ee%in'*> Rather) it is the &rodu(t o! two #e e%ements: a dai% sear(h !or
deve%o&ments that either !it with the on'oin' &i(ture Hor anoma%ies that resha&e itI and an
understandin' o! time) as viewed " the re'ion or a(tor "ein' assessed* And these views
var dramati(a%%* 1t (ou%d "e ar'ued) !or e5am&%e) that an Ameri(an.s sense o! histori(a%
((%es ? whi(h have "een (rammed into a nationa% histor that s(ar(e% e5(eeds 677
ears ? is vast% di!!erent !rom that o! the Chinese) whose (ivi%i,ation s&ans a
mi%%ennium*
-e a&&% this same &ers&e(tive to a% 9aeda and to attem&ts to understand the
(urrent status o! what the Bush administration has %a"e%ed the ='%o"a% war on terrorism*>
2iven the unusua% nature o! this =war> a'ainst a non-state a(tor) there is &%ent o! room
!or de"ate and s&e(u%ation) "ut in 'enera% it has "een our &osition) !rom a 'eo&o%iti(a%
stand&oint) that a% 9aeda is %osin' its e!!e(tiveness as a strate'i( !or(e ? meanin' one
that is (a&a"%e o! drasti(a%% resha&in' the "ehavior o! nations) as it did on Se&t* 88) 6778*
-e &%a(e em&hasis on the word =strate'i(:> -e are in no wa sain' that a% 9aeda has
"een (on@uered or de(%arin' the +nited States a vi(tor) "ut it is our view that a shi!t is
o((urrin' in the nature o! the war) whi(h is ta#in' on more o! a re'iona% and %o(a% ?
rather than '%o"a% ? nature*
-here the +*S* (a%(u%us is (on(erned) this is neither unusua% nor une5&e(ted*
Strate'i(a%% s&ea#in') it was to "e e5&e(ted that the +nited States wou%d res&ond to the
Se&t* 88 atta(#s with a%% the too%s in its arsena% ? overwhe%min' mi%itar !or(e) a heav
!orei'n &o%i( sti(#) inte%%i'en(e (a&a"i%ities and %aw en!or(ement* 1t was a%so e5&e(ted
that) at some &oint) Ameri(an attention wou%d return to other issues as we%% ? the state o!
the e(onom) an erstwhi%e Chinese threat) and so !orth* -e a%read have seen this ha&&en*
But what o! a% 9aeda< ;as its attention "een diverted) its resour(es stret(hed) or
its 'oa% %ines moved< 1s the sense that a% 9aeda is ='ettin' the worst o! it> thus !ar in the
war ?whi(h we have stated re&eated% ? a(tua%% Dusti!ied<
At the ta(ti(a% %eve%) the answers to most o! these @uestions wou%d have to "e
=no*>Fet.s disse(t that !or a moment) returnin' a'ain to a% 9aeda.s (ore 'oa%s and to a
%o(a%i,ed understandin' o! time*
First) it.s im&ortant to remem"er that ? emotiona%ism aside ? a% 9aeda.s (ore
'oa% has not "een (hie!% to #i%% Ameri(ans or -esterners in 'enera%) "ut to e!!e(t &o%iti(a%
(han'e within the Mus%im wor%d* The 'oa% o! the Se&t* 88 atta(#s was) we have %on'
"e%ieved) to (reate a sense o! em&owerment amon' the Mus%im masses that wou%d %ead to
&o&u%ar u&risin's a'ainst se(u%ar or =a&ostate> re'imes* -hether a% 9aeda a(tua%%
&%anned to #i%% E)777 &eo&%e with the Se&t* 88 stri#es) or whether the death to%% massive%
e5(eeded even its own e5&e(tations) is a matter o! de"ateK what is #nown is that the
atta(#s were) and were intended to "e) =s&e(ta(u%ar> stri#es a'ainst sm"o%i( tar'ets that
wou%d 'ri& the wor%d.s attention*
Se(ond) it must "e re(a%%ed that the Se&t* 88 atta(#s were in no wa the o&enin'
sa%vo o! a% 9aeda.s war ? sim&% its !irst su((ess in (ommandin' the wor%d.s attention*
The war) !rom a% 9aeda.s stand&oint) a%read had "een under wa !or severa% ears ?
%i#e% "e'innin' with the !irst "om"in' o! the -or%d Trade Center in 8AAE) or even
"e!ore) &erha&s with the e5&u%sion o! the Soviets !rom A!'hanistan*
Armed with hindsi'ht) inte%%i'en(e ana%sts (an (ome u& with a hand!u% o!
&ossi"%e startin' &oints !or a% 9aeda.s war and tra(# the ((%es ? &erha&s 'oin' as !ar
"a(# as the assassination o! Anwar Sadat in 8AG8 ? usin' various rationa%es* But a%% o!
these ((%es have one thin' in (ommon: The are %on' ((%es) mu(h %on'er than the !our
ears that have &assed sin(e Se&t* 88) 6778*
The ((%e "oo#-ended " the two stri#es a'ainst the -or%d Trade Center) in 8AAE
and 6778) is as use!u% to e5amine as an:
0i'ht ears trans&ired "etween -or%d Trade Center 1 and the Se&t* 88 atta(#s)
&un(tuated " numerous stri#es a'ainst +*S* assets overseas* These in(%ude) "ut
(ertain% are not %imited to) the "om"in's o! the Kho"ar Towers in 8AA6)
em"assies in Kena and Tan,ania in 8AAG and the +SS Co%e in 6777) in addition
to assassination &%ots tar'etin' the &o&e in the 4hi%i&&ines and a'ainst various
Ameri(an and British di&%omats in 4a#istan*
As this %ist shows) man o! the atta(#s and &%ots that (an "e identi!ied as a% 9aeda
a(ts "etween 8AAE and 6778 invo%ved a =hardened tar'et set> ? mi%itar or
di&%omati( tar'ets that were sm"o%s o! +*S* or -estern &ower*
-ith the Se&t* 88 atta(#s) a% 9aeda su((ess!u%% stru(# not on% at hard) sm"o%i(
tar'ets) "ut at a =so!t> tar'et as we%% ? the -or%d Trade Center towers ? and
with that) the under&innin's o! +*S* &ower: its e(onom*
The tem&o o! a% 9aeda.s o&erations) "e'innin' in 8AAE) has not s%owed sin(e
Se&t* 88: -e have seen) !or e5am&%e) assassinations in Jordan H6776I) "ra,en
assau%ts a'ainst -esterners in Saudi Ara"ia H677:I) dead% "om"in's o!
ni'ht(%u"s and hote%s in 1ndonesia H677EI and the Midd%e 0ast H677:I) and dead%
"om"in's o! &assen'er rai% sstems in Madrid HMar(h 677:I and Fondon) not to
mention a% 9aeda.s o"vious invo%vement in the insur'en( in 1ra@*
1n short) we are seein' the natura% &ro'ression o! a terrorist (am&ai'n ? a shi!t
!rom hard tar'ets to so!t ? at the ta(ti(a% %eve%) entai%in' "oth a trend toward sma%%-s(a%e
atta(#s and a% 9aeda.s ada&tation to new &o%iti(a% and se(urit rea%ities*
-e have seen the same &ro'ression with other 'rou&s in the &ast* For e5am&%e)
;e,"o%%ah ? under the dire(tion o! Fe"anese nationa% 1mad Mu'hnieh ? went !rom
the sui(ide "om"in' o! +*S* Marine head@uarters in Beirut in 8AGE and the #idna&&in'
and murder o! C1A station (hie! -i%%iam Bu(#%e Hwho !its the de!inition o! a =hard
tar'et>I in 8AG: to the "om"in' o! a Jewish (ommunit (enter in Buenos Aires)
Ar'entina) in 8AA:* -e do not dismiss the !a(t that ;e,"o%%ah ? whi(h inte%%i'en(e
a'ents "e%ieve served as somethin' o! a mode% !or the ear% a% 9aeda) and has "een an
on'oin' tar'et o! 'overnment (ounterterrorism e!!orts ? has mutated sin(e that time to
"e(ome more o! a &o%iti(a% a(tor) most a(tive within its native s&here "ut sti%% (a&a"%e o!
dead% vio%en(e in man &arts o! the wor%d*
From a ta(ti(a% &ers&e(tive) the shi!t to so!ter tar'ets is @uite worrisome ? not
on% "e(ause the are so mu(h more numerous than =hard> tar'ets) "ut a%so "e(ause a%
9aeda @uite (%ear% has %aid (are!u% &%ans !or this sta'e o! the war*
True) the 'rou& so !ar has not "een a"%e to (arr out a su((ess!u% !o%%ow-on to
Se&t* 88 !rom +*S* soi%) "ut that (ertain% is not !or %a(# o! trin'* To date) +*S*
inte%%i'en(e a'ents have un(overed at %east a do,en %i#e% &%ots within the +nited States)
interdi(ted at various sta'es o! the atta(# ((%e ? and it is wide% #nown that a% 9aeda
(ondu(ted detai%ed survei%%an(e o! the Citi'rou& "ui%din') 4rudentia% 4%a,a) /ew Cor#
Sto(# 05(han'e and other !inan(ia% tar'ets in /ew Cor# Cit) as we%% as the -or%d Ban#
and 1nternationa% Monetar Fund head@uarters and (on'ressiona% tar'ets in -ashin'ton)
3*C* From everthin' that +*S* inte%%i'en(e #nows ? in(%udin' interro'ations o!
(a&tured o&eratives ? a% 9aeda does not 'o to su(h %en'ths as s#et(hin' out the
ar(hite(tura% wea#nesses or se(urit &oints o! a "ui%din' without eventua%% trin' to
"rin' it down) even when the tar'et is #nown to authorities*
/ow) we (annot #now de!inite% whether a% 9aeda %a(#s the (a&a"i%it to &u%% o!!
another atta(# within the +nited States at this &oint or ? !or reasons o! its own ? has
o&ted not to* Certain%) there have "een numerous &eriods) su(h as the re(ent meetin' o!
the +*/* 2enera% Assem"% in /ew Cor#) when the 'rou& (ou%d have made an e!!e(tive
statement " sta'in' an atta(# ? and did not* 2iven that) and the e!!e(tiveness o! the FB1
and C1A thus !ar in &re-em&tin' &%ots) we inter&ret a (ertain amount o! disru&tion*
1n %i'ht o! histor) however) this ana%sis &rovides %itt%e (om!ort*
Thou'h (entra%i,ed (ommand and (ontro% o&erations in a%% %i#e%ihood have "een
disru&ted) the shi!t that a&&ears to "e under wa ? mar#ed &arti(u%ar% " the Madrid
and Fondon "om"in's and the use o! =B> team &%aers or native-"orn sm&athi,ers ? is
that !rom =a% 9aeda the Or'ani,ation> to =a% 9aeda the Movement*> -e) a%on' with
'overnment inte%%i'en(e a'ents) have noted somethin' o! a tea(her-&u&i% re%ationshi& in
man o! Aman a%-Jawahiri.s videota&ed statements: 1t is &ossi"%e !or a% 9aeda to
retroa(tive% (%aim res&onsi"i%it !or an num"er o! a(ts ? inde&endent% or'ani,ed and
(arried out " sm&athi,ers or wanna"es ? thus "o%sterin' its own (redi"i%it and that o!
the a(tors at the same time* 1t a%so is &ossi"%e !or a% 9aeda) at times) to &rove dire(t %in#s
"etween its (entra% %eadershi& and &eri&hera% a(tors*
Ta(ti(a%% s&ea#in') a% 9aeda the Movement has "oth a "roader 'eo'ra&hi( rea(h
? drawin' on re'iona% (on!%i(ts and %o(a% 'rievan(es ? and sha%%ower de&th Hsin(e it
re%ies on sma%%-s(a%e stri#es at so!ter tar'etsI than wou%d a% 9aeda the Or'ani,ation* But
this is) in its own wa) a stren'th: 2iven a% 9aeda.s sustained o&erationa% tem&o sin(e
Se&t* 88) 6778) it a&&ears that the ins&ired movement has mana'ed to over(ome the
(ommand-and-(ontro% &ro"%em &osed " the iso%ation and @uarr status o! a% 9aeda.s
(entra% %eaders*
1! ou were to &%ot this out on a (hart) what ou mi'ht see are two trend %ines
!ormin' an =O:> One) de&i(tin' a% 9aeda.s im&a(t as a strate'i( !or(e) on a de(%inin'
trendK the other) de&i(tin' the ta(ti(a% and se(urit threats &osed " a wides&read and %ess
visi"%e movement) on the in(rease*
At this &oint) we !ind ourse%ves near the mid-&oint on the O* A% 9aeda has a to&
%eadershi& that is) thou'h in hidin') sti%% (a&a"%e o! (ommuni(atin' with the wor%d
throu'h "road(ast re(ordin's and the 1nternet) and ? i! Fondon is an indi(ation ? !oot
so%diers around the wor%d who are (a&a"%e o! !%in' "e%ow the radar unti% an atta(#
a(tua%% is (arried out* 1!) however) a% 9aeda 'e%s as a movement ? with its ideo%o'
resonatin' amon' mi%itants with various (auses o! their own ? the e5isten(e or
annihi%ation o! wide% re(o'ni,ed !i'ureheads wou%d "e) in most res&e(ts) irre%evant*
A% 9aeda in 6776: 3evo%ution and Ada&tation
6an) 7, 2009
The new ear is an idea% time) in 'eo&o%iti(s as in other areas o! %i!e) to re!%e(t on
deve%o&ments o! the &ast ear and) at STRATFOR) to o!!er our view o! those we
anti(i&ate in the rea%m o! terrorism in 6776*
For @uite some time) we have "een tra(#in' a% 9aeda.s metamor&hosis !rom a
re%ative% sma%% 'rou& o! individua%s who viewed themse%ves as the van'uard o! radi(a%
1s%amism ? (a%%in' themse%ves =Kni'hts under the 4ro&het.s Banner> ? to a mu(h
"roader movement or ideo%o' (a&a"%e o! in!%uen(in' the "ehavior o! man others* The
rhetori( o! Osama "in Faden and the other %eaders o! the Dihadist (ause has (a%%ed (%ear%
and re&eated% !or the =+mmah)> or 1s%ami( &eo&%e) to rise u& and Doin the =Dihad a'ainst
the Jews and Crusaders*> -hi%e this (a%% has not resu%ted in the wor%dwide u&risin' a%
9aeda.s %eaders ho&ed !or) it has nonethe%ess resonated in some @uarters*
Fro. 2rou3 +o 1ove.e0+
This shi!t !rom a 'rou& to a movement was evident in 6775) and we "e%ieve there
wi%% "e !urther si'ns o! the evo%ution in 6776*
1n the maDor atta(#s attri"uted to a% 9aeda or (%ose a!!i%iates durin' 6775 ? su(h
as those in Fondon HJu%I) Sharm e%-Shei#h HJu%I) Ba%i HO(to"erI) and Amman
H/ovem"erI ? o&eratives !rom re'iona% 'rou&s) rather than teams o! what mi'ht "e
(a%%ed the =a% 9aeda a%%-stars> that (arried out the Se&t* 88 o&eration) too# u& the "anner
o! Dihad* The di!!eren(es here are im&ortant: The Se&t* 88 hiDa(#ers were dis&at(hed !rom
=The Base> and (ame to the +nited States to (arr out their missions* The re(eived
dire(t %o'isti(a% su&&ort and o&erationa% 'uidan(e !rom a% 9aeda.s (entra% (ommand
stru(ture* On the other hand) the o&eratives in Fondon and 1ndonesia were %o(a%s) and the
o&eratives in Amman were re'iona%) in the sense that the (rossed over the "order !rom
1ra@ to (arr out their stri#es*
-hi%e there are (onne(tions "etween the main a% 9aeda %eadershi& and
o&erationa% (e%%s in &%a(es %i#e Britain and 1ra@ ? as evident !rom the 'rou&.s statements)
inter(e&ted %etters and the sui(ide video o! Fondon "om"er Mohammed Siddi@ue Khan
? the %an'ua'e o! the %etter &ur&orted% written " de&ut a% 9aeda %eader Aman a%-
Jawahiri to A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi in 1ra@ (%ear% demonstrates that the various nodes o!
a% 9aeda e5ist in more o! a %oose !ederation than a stri(t hierar(hi(a% (hain o! (ommand*
1n the %etter) a%-Jawahiri made !%atterin' statements to a%-Jar@awi and re@uested that he
do (ertain thin's ? su(h as sto& "eheadin' hosta'es and ease his atta(#s a'ainst the Shia
? "ut he was not (%ear% orderin' him to do those thin's* And indeed) a%-Jar@awi.s
mi%itants (ontinued to (arr out atta(#s a'ainst Shiite tar'ets in 1ra@ even a!ter the %etter
was made &u"%i(*
A% 9aeda.s tenden( to wor# with %o(a% mi%itants has "een we%% esta"%ished sin(e
the ear% 8AA7s: 1t showed u& in o&erations tar'etin' &%a(es %i#e Cemen) Soma%ia)
0thio&ia and /ew Cor#* This sstem was institutiona%i,ed in 8AAG) when "in Faden
issued a Doint !atwa with the 0'&tian 1s%ami( 2rou&) A% Jihad) the Jihad Movement in
Ban'%adesh and the =Jamaat u% +%ema e 4a#istan> under the name =-or%d 1s%ami( Front
!or Jihad A'ainst Jews and Crusaders*> The !atwa de(%ares it the =individua% dut !or
ever Mus%im> to atta(# =Jews and Crusaders> wherever &ossi"%e) =in order to %i"erate
the a%-A@sa Mos@ue and the ho% mos@ue [Me((a$ !rom their 'ri&) and in order !or their
armies to move out o! a%% the %ands o! 1s%am*>
A% 9aeda 'ained momentum and stren'th a!ter "in Faden moved "a(# to
A!'hanistan !rom Sudan in 8AA6* This ena"%ed the 'rou& to o&erate without the
assistan(e o! %o(a% mi%itants* ;owever) a!ter the +*S* invasion o! A!'hanistan in 6778) the
arrests or deaths o! severa% #e a% 9aeda %eaders and the sei,ure o! mi%%ions o! do%%ars in
assets) a% 9aeda has reverted "a(# to its ear%ier o&erationa% mode%*
As we have noted &revious%) this shi!t 'ives =a% 9aeda the movement> "roader
'eo'ra&hi( and o&erationa% rea(h than =a% 9aeda the 'rou&>) "ut at the same time it is
sha%%ower in a sense: The new a(tor %a(#s the o&erationa% de&th and e5&ertise o! the (ore
'rou& and its we%%-trained %eadershi&* 1n !a(t) a% 9aeda the 'rou& has "een una"%e to
demonstrate a (ontinued (a&a"i%it to a(t as a strate'i( !or(e ? meanin' one whose
a(tions (an drasti(a%% resha&e the wor%d ? sin(e the Se&t* 88 atta(#s* There have "een
no stri#es (arried out " =a%%-star teams> sin(e Se&t* 88* 1nstead) the o&erations that have
ta#en &%a(e have "orne mu(h stron'er resem"%an(es to the anti-+*S* atta(#s in the 8AA7s)
su(h as the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in' or the em"ass "om"in's in 0ast A!ri(a*
Su(h a(tions (an #i%% man &eo&%e and are not to "e %i'ht% dismissed ? "ut in terms o!
'eo&o%iti(a% im&a(t and ma'nitude) the are mere &in&ri(#s when (om&ared to the
stunnin' "%ow that was dea%t on Se&t* 88*
T,4ar+e( A++acks* T).)05 a0( "es)l)e0ce
Re(ent%) severa% readers have as#ed whether we "e%ieve that a% 9aeda has
&ur&ose% avoided atta(#in' the +nited States in order to &%a to the +*S* media and
a%%ow &u"%i( o&inion to turn a'ainst the war in 1ra@ ? and) (onse@uent%) a'ainst the
"roader war on terrorism* The answer is no: -hi%e &u"%i( o&inion in the +nited States
and e%sewhere has indeed run a'ainst the war in 1ra@) the %a(# o! a su((ess!u% !o%%ow-on
atta(# " a% 9aeda on +*S* soi% has not "een strate'i(a%% &%anned or ordered* 1n other
words) it has not "een !or a %a(# o! trin'* Sin(e Se&t* 88) +*S* inte%%i'en(e and %aw
en!or(ement a'en(ies have thwarted at %east a do,en %i#e% &%ots a'ainst tar'ets in the
+nited States) interdi(ted at various sta'es o! the atta(# ((%e* 1n addition to the we%%-
#nown &%ots (onne(ted to a(tors su(h as Ri(hard Reid and Jose 4adi%%a) it is wide%
#nown H!rom eviden(e made &u"%i( in 677:I that a% 9aeda (ondu(ted detai%ed
survei%%an(e o! the Citi'rou& "ui%din') 4rudentia% 4%a,a) /ew Cor# Sto(# 05(han'e and
other !inan(ia% tar'ets in /ew Cor# Cit) as we%% as the -or%d Ban# and 1nternationa%
Monetar Fund head@uarters and (on'ressiona% tar'ets in -ashin'ton) 3*C*
-hi%e man (an and do de"ate ta(ti(s used " various 'overnments in the anti-
Dihadist war) and we ourse%ves have o((asiona%% ro%%ed our ees as the 4a#istani
'overnment announ(ed the arrest or death o! et another o! a% 9aeda.s a&&arent%
%imit%ess =num"er three> %eaders) we must nonethe%ess 'ive (redit where it is due* The
+*S* 'overnment and its a%%ies have done a ver 'ood Do" at disru&tin' terrorist &%ots and
&%ans* The disru&tion strate' is rea%% @uite sim&%e: Better to &i(# u& an a% 9aeda sus&e(t
!or immi'ration !raud or another %esser o!!ense than to investi'ate a smo#in' ho%e in the
'round* There were am&%e instan(es o! this ta(ti( in &%a durin' 6775 ? most nota"% the
arrest o! an imam in Fodi) Ca%i!ornia) who the FB1 "e%ieves was en(oura'in' a terrorist
&%ot) and the arrest o! an imam in C%eve%and) Ohio) who is "e%ieved to "e %in#ed to a
4a%estinian mi%itant 'rou&*
The trai% o! disru&ted &%ots has "een (ontinuous) and it s&ea#s to Dihadists.
on'oin' desire to stri#e at the +nited States* Thou'h not a%% o! the =disru&ted &%ots> made
&u"%i( " the +*S* 'overnment ne(essari% shou%d "e viewed as va%id threats) there
remains a (%ear re(ord o! &%ans to stri#e on +*S* soi% sin(e Se&t* 88* Over the ears)
1s%amist mi%itants have &roven to "e ver resi%ient and ada&ta"%e) and we anti(i&ate the
wi%% (ontinue to ada&t* -e note that more than ei'ht ears e%a&sed "etween the 8AAE
-or%d Trade Center "om"in' and the Se&t* 88 atta(#s ? durin' whi(h time the Dihadists
!a(ed nothin' a&&roa(hin' the %eve% o! &ressure the have endured sin(e Se&t* 88 and
ensurin' ='%o"a% war on terrorism*> To "e sure) severa% wou%d-"e terrorism s&e(ta(u%ars)
su(h as the mi%%ennium "om" &%ot and O&eration BoDin#a) were thwarted "etween 8AAE
and 6778* 1t was a'ainst this "a(#dro& o! de!eats that the Dihadists &ersisted and
eventua%% su((eeded in (arrin' out a massive stri#e on +*S* soi%*
Simi%ar%) the strin's o! %aw en!or(ement and inte%%i'en(e su((esses sin(e Se&t* 88
do not ru%e out the &ossi"i%it o! another stri#e on +*S* soi% in time* -e "e%ieve the
%i#e%ihood o! su(h an atta(# wi%% in(rease as memories o! Se&t* 88 dim* 3es&ite the man
de(%arations made in the immediate a!termath o! the stri#es in /ew Cor# and -ashin'ton
that =Ameri(a wi%% never "e the same)> there has "een a s%ow and stead shi!t "a(# to
"usiness-as-usua% and a sense o! 'enera% (om&%a(en(* On the who%e) Ameri(ans are a
&eo&%e with short attention s&ans ? and at an rate) =a%ert !ati'ue> has a%was "een
re(o'ni,ed as amon' the ha,ards in a %on'-term war* -hi%e we do not "e%ieve that a%
9aeda is (a&a"%e o! (arrin' out another Se&t* 88) that is not the same as sain' the
(annot (arr out another stri#e on +*S* soi%* -e "e%ieve the wi%% do so ? %i#e% with
%ower im&a(t than in 6778 ? as soon as the are (a&a"%e o! evadin' &re-o&erationa%
dete(tion*
Dea+, Toll Tre0(s
;avin' said that) there is another trend to address* The shi!t !rom 'rou& to
movement ma mean that a% 9aeda no %on'er shou%d "e viewed as a strate'i( 'eo&o%iti(a%
!or(e) "ut the Dihadists are sti%% a threat and (a&a"%e o! #i%%in' man &eo&%e* A %oo# at the
num"ers shows there have "een more deaths attri"uted to a% 9aeda in the 56 months sin(e
Se&t* 88 Hmore than G77I than in the 56 months &rior to it H%ess than :77I ? des&ite the
'%o"a% war on terror and the su((esses in disru&tin' a% 9aeda as an or'ani,ation* -e
shou%d note that these statisti(s do not in(%ude the deaths in 1ra@) A!'hanistan or the
!ormer Soviet +nion where a(tive insur'en(ies are under wa) and that the in(%ude "oth
-estern and non--estern vi(tims* -ith the a(tive resistan(e "ein' !ou'ht in 1ra@ a'ainst
(oa%ition !or(es and 1ra@i (ivi%ians) the num"ers o! deaths (aused " Dihadists there wou%d
"e mu(h hi'her*
There are severa% reasons !or this trend in death to%%s*
First) as we have stated) a% 9aeda the movement is %ar'er and more wide%
dis&ersed 'eo'ra&hi(a%% than a% 9aeda the 'rou&* Thou'h man o! those invo%ved in the
movement ma not have the trainin' and &ro!essiona%ism o! their =a% 9aeda &rime>
(ounter&arts) sheer num"ers and 'eo'ra&hi( !a(tors have a%%owed the movement to atta(#
with mu(h 'reater !re@uen( and a(ross a mu(h "roader !ront than the main 'rou& wou%d
"e a"%e to su&&ort* For e5am&%e) in addition to the atta(#s in 1ndonesia) Britain and the
Sinai 4eninsu%a) the wor%d witnessed the emer'en(e o! a new sui(ide-"om"in' threat
!rom the Jamaat-u%-MuDahideen %ast ear in Ban'%adesh ? a re'ion where a% 9aeda the
'rou& has not histori(a%% (hosen to a(t*
Se(ond) there has "een a shi!t toward so!t tar'ets* As &hsi(a% se(urit measures
surroundin' traditiona% sm"o%s o! -estern &ower Hsu(h as the -hite ;ouse) the
4enta'on and the +*S*) British and Austra%ian em"assiesI has "een intensi!ied or
=hardened)> the threat has "een &ushed toward so!ter tar'et sets that are ver di!!i(u%t to
de!end ? su(h as hote%s) trains and su"was* The &ro&ensit toward atta(#in' so!ter
tar'ets with sma%%er devi(es to (reate %ar'e (asua%t (ounts was (%ear% de%ineated in
1ndonesia on O(t* 8) where the stri#e " Jemaah 1s%amiah a'ainst restaurants in Ba%i
(aused more deaths than the 'rou&.s %ast two %ar'e (ar "om" atta(#s*
=;ard tar'ets> are Dust that ? hard to stri#e due to desi'n and %o(ation* A %ar'e
"om" is needed to &enetrate de!enses* ;owever) a shi!t to so!t tar'ets means that sma%%
im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es H103sI (an "e used with dead% e!!i(ien( ? as a(tua%%
o((urred in Fondon and Amman* The demand !or resour(es is di!!erent as we%%: S(ores o!
sma%% 103s (an "e made with the same @uantit o! e5&%osives used in the 8AAE -or%d
Trade Center tru(# "om"* 0m&%oin' the =smart te(hno%o'> o! human "om"ers) who
&%a(e timed or remote-detonated "om"s ? or themse%ves) in sui(ide mode ? in idea%
ta(ti(a% %o(ations) su(h devi(es ver easi% (an #i%% or wound s(ores o! &eo&%e* 1n !a(t) the
rai% atta(#s in Madrid and Fondon "ore &roo! that sma%% 103s (an (ause man more
deaths than atta(#s usin' "io%o'i(a% or (hemi(a% a'ents su(h as anthra5 or sarin*
Thus) the +*S* 'overnment.s strate' o! =hardenin'> o!!i(ia% sites and assets has
"een a dou"%e-ed'ed sword when it (omes to &rivate industr) &arti(u%ar% the
trans&ortation and hos&ita%it se(tors* The &u"%i( and &rivate se(tors have Doined !or(es in
e!!orts to &rote(t trans&ortation sstems) "ut &rivate-se(tor "usinesses %i#e hote%s and
(ruise %ines) as we%% as the tourism industr in 'enera%) remain e5treme% di!!i(u%t to
se(ure* These tar'ets host %ar'e num"ers o! =&re-&a(#a'ed> vi(tims* This !a(t has not
"een o"s(ured " the !o' o! war !or the Dihadists) who (ontinue to tar'et su(h "usinesses*
1t ta#es %itt%e e5&ertise or trainin' to &%a(e an 103 on a su"wa or in a restaurant or hote%*
-e e5&e(t that Dihadists wi%% (ontinue to e5&%oit su(h vu%nera"i%ities in the =so!t tar'et>
set over the ne5t two to three ears ? unti% there has "een enou'h %oss o! %i!e to ma#e it a
&o%iti(a% issue !or Ameri(an voters* -e e5&e(t this wou%d not o((ur unti% the su"was in
/ew Cor# Cit or -ashin'ton) 3*C*) are atta(#ed in a Fondon- or Madrid-st%e stri#e) the
-ashin'ton-to-/ew Cor# Amtra# %ine is hit) or there is an Amman-st%e sui(ide atta(# at
a %ar'e +*S* hote% in a maDor +*S* (it*
Look)05 A,ea(
A% 9aeda remains a dan'erous movement and) whi%e it now %a(#s the strate'i(
&un(h it (arried in 6778) it wi%% (ontinue to atta(# so!t tar'ets a(ross a %ar'e 'eo'ra&hi(
!ront in the (omin' ear* -e e5&e(t that in 6776) stri#es wi%% "e (arried out in "oth the
traditiona% hots&ots and in areas not &revious% #nown !or 1s%amist mi%itant a(tivit* The
a(tive armed stru''%es in 1ra@) A!'hanistan and the Cau(asus (ontinue to a(t as a #ind o!
=Dihadist war (o%%e'e> ? and as the 'raduates o! that s(hoo% return to their (ountries o!
ori'in) the wi%% (ontinue to share their trainin' and e5&erien(e with mi%itants "a(# home*
The (onne(tions that the mi%itants ma#e in &%a(es %i#e 1ra@ and Che(hna a%so wi%% %in#
them to the '%o"a% movement in the same wa that the Dihad in A!'hanistan did !or the
&re(edin' 'eneration*
1t is not (ertain what the new ear wi%% "rin' !or a% 9aeda the 'rou&* 1t is not (%ear
at this &oint that "in Faden is even a%ive ? he has not "een heard !rom in more than a
ear) and there have "een no (on(%usive si'ns o! his surviva% sin(e we &ondered in
Se&tem"er that he mi'ht indeed "e dead* ;owever) we are (ertain that whatever e%ements
o! the or'ani,ation remain are dedi(ated to stri#in' the +nited States as hard and as
!re@uent% as the are a"%e* 2iven their &ast &%ots and interro'ations o! #e &%aers su(h
as Kha%ed Shei#h Mohammed) we #now that a% 9aeda the 'rou& has "een interested !or
ears in stri#in' !inan(ia% tar'ets) air(ra!t and (hemi(a%P&etro%eum &%ants* Be(ause a%
9aeda has a demonstrated histor o! revisitin' tar'ets a!ter !ai%ed or !oi%ed atta(#s) it is
%o'i(a% that the wi%% (ontinue to attem&t stri#es a'ainst su(h tar'ets in the !uture*
Bin Faden.s nota"%e a"sen(e durin' the &ast ear has unders(ored a% 9aeda.s shi!t
!rom a 'rou& to a movement ? and indi(ates that even when he is not seen to "e in
(ontro%) the movement wi%% #ee& steamin' ri'ht a%on' on (ourse* This indi(ates that i! "in
Faden is a%ive and eventua%% is ta#en out " the +nited States) the movement wi%%
(ontinue* 1deo%o'ies are mu(h harder to #i%% than individua%s*
That "rin's us to another #e &oint: There has "een a 'radua% "ut a((e%eratin'
de(%ine in su&&ort !or the ideo%o' o! Dihadism in the Mus%im wor%d* Thou'h &o(#ets o!
staun(h su&&ort !or Dihadism remain) the tide o! &u"%i( o&inion has "e'un to turn a'ainst
a% 9aeda and Dihadism in some (ru(ia% %o(ations) in(%udin' Saudi Ara"ia* A%-Jawahiri
himse%! has a(#now%ed'ed de!eat in Saudi Ara"ia) where the monar(h has &ersuaded the
masses to turn a'ainst Dihadists ? or =deviants)> as the are termed " the re'ime*
1t is this #ind o! ideo%o'i(a% "att%e that must "e !ou'ht and won to de!eat Dihadism*
1t is indeed a %on'-term war) and we do not anti(i&ate its (on(%usion in 6776*
A% 9aeda: The /e5t 4hase o! 0vo%ution<
6une 8, 2009
Canadian authorities re(ent% arrested 8B men) a((usin' them o! &%annin' terrorist
atta(#s) a!ter some mem"ers o! the 'rou& "ou'ht what the "e%ieved to "e some E tons o!
ammonium nitrate !erti%i,er) whi(h (an "e used to ma#e e5&%osives* The men a%%e'ed%
were &%annin' atta(#s a'ainst sm"o%i( tar'ets in Toronto and Ottawa in a &%ot that
re&orted% in(%uded "om"in's) armed assau%ts and "eheadin's*
One o! the thin's that ma#e this (ase interestin' is that the 'rou& ? now du""ed
" the media as the =Canada 8B> ? re&orted% had (onne(tions to a%%e'ed Dihadists in
other (ountries) whose ear%ier arrests were wide% re&orted* Those (onne(tions in(%uded
two men !rom the +nited States ? 0hsanu% 1s%am Sade@uee and Sed ;aris Ahmed ?
who re&orted% trave%ed !rom 2eor'ia in Mar(h 6775 to meet with 1s%amist e5tremists in
Toronto* Authorities have said the (ons&ired to attend a mi%itant trainin' (am& in
4a#istan and dis(ussed &otentia% terrorist tar'ets in the +nited States* There a%so is said to
"e a (onne(tion to a &rominent (om&uter ha(#er in Britain) who was arrested in O(to"er
and (har'ed with (ons&irin' to (ommit murder and (ause an e5&%osion*
The June 6 arrests (ertain% unders(ore the &ossi"i%it that Canada) whi(h has a
%on' histor o! %i"era% immi'ration and as%um &o%i(ies) has "een used " Dihadists as a
san(tuar !or raisin' !unds and &%annin' atta(#s* But the most intri'uin' as&e(t o! the
Canada (ase is that it seems to en(a&su%ate a trend that has "een s%ow% evo%vin' !or some
time* 1! the a%%e'ations in the Canada 8B (ase are at %east most% true) it mi'ht re&resent
the emer'en(e o! a new o&erationa% mode% !or Dihadists ? an =a% 9aeda :*7)> i! ou wi%%*
1n other words) the wor%d mi'ht "e witnessin' the emer'en(e o! a 'rassroots
Dihadist networ# that "oth e5ists in and has the a"i%it to stri#e in mu%ti&%e (ountries ?
without su&&ort or oversi'ht !rom the (entra% a% 9aeda %eadershi&*
A H)s+or- of O3era+)o0al 1o(els
To understand what we mean " =a% 9aeda :*7)> %et.s review the histor o!
o&erationa% mode%s that a% 9aeda has used over the ears*
The !irst identi!ia"%e o&erationa% mode% ? the 8*7 ? was that used in the ear%
8AA7s* This mode% revo%ved around Osama "in Faden) the =A!'han Ara"s> or veterans o!
the Soviet resistan(e in A!'hanistan) and !orma% mi%itant trainin' (am&s* 1n this iteration)
o&erationa% (ommanders trained at (am&s in A!'hanistan ? most nota"% Kha%den ?
re(eived !undin' and %o'isti(a% su&&ort !rom "in Faden and others) and (ondu(ted
o&erations in various &arts o! the wor%d*
-e do note that this is a rather (ontroversia% startin' &oint !or our histor* 1t (an
"e (redi"% ar'ued Hand indeed) we have had su(h ar'uments amon'st ourse%vesI that this
&hase re&resents a #ind o! =&roto-a% 9aeda> ? that a% 9aeda had not "een esta"%ished as
a !orma% or'ani,ation in the ear% 8AA7s) and as a resu%t) an atta(#s durin' that &eriod
were not (arried out " a (entra%i,ed or'ani,ation that was (ontro%%ed " "in Faden* The
(ontrastin' &oint o! view is that a% 9aeda a(tua%% did e5ist at that time) "ut "e(ause "in
Faden was %ivin' as a 'uest in Sudan Hand then) %ater) in A!'hanistanI) he did not (%aim
res&onsi"i%it !or the atta(#s or &%ots that were (arried out at that sta'e) so as not to "rin'
&o%iti(a% &ressure Hor mi%itar reta%iationI a'ainst his host 'overnments*
Be that as it ma) the mode% Hwhi(h !or &ur&oses o! this ana%sis wi%% "e (a%%ed
=8*7>I was evident in man Dihadist o&erations o! the ear% 8AA7s: A su((ession o!
individua%s who went !orth !rom "in Faden-run trainin' (am&s to &%an and (ondu(t
atta(#s e%sewhere* These men !re@uent% (onne(ted with veterans o! the A!'han Dihad ?
or with others who had &assed throu'h the trainin' (am&s in A!'hanistan ? on(e the
arrived in the tar'et (ountr) and thus) o&erationa% (e%%s were "orn*
One &rime e5am&%e o! this 8*7 mode% (an "e seen in the &%ots o! A"de% Basit and
Ahmed ADaD) who %e!t the Kha%den trainin' (am& and !%ew to /ew Cor# in Se&tem"er
8AA6* ADaD was arrested !or a &ass&ort vio%ation) "ut Basit entered the (ountr and went
on to or(hestrate the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in'* The o&erationa% mode% a%so
a&&%ies in the 8AA6 stri#es in Cemen a'ainst the +*S* 0m"ass in Sanaa and +*S* Air
For(e &ersonne% in Aden) and in &%ots that did not (ome to !ruition ? !or e5am&%e)
O&eration BoDin#a and A"de% Basit.s &%ots to #i%% 4o&e John 4au% 11 and +*S* 4resident
Bi%% C%inton*
A s%i'ht variation on this mode% emer'ed in the %ater 8AA7s: O&erationa%
(ommanders with more o"vious %in#s to a% 9aeda and "in Faden were dis&at(hed to
Cemen) Canada) Kena and other (ountries to esta"%ish (e%%s and (arr out atta(#s* This
8*8 mode% (ou%d "e seen in the 8AAG "om"in's o! +*S* em"assies in Kena and Tan,ania)
the disru&ted =mi%%ennium "om" &%ot> and the atta(# on the +SS Co%e in 6777* At this
sta'e) "in Faden was sti%% denin' invo%vement in su(h atta(#s*
The 6*7 o&erationa% mode% is the easiest to re(o'ni,e) "ut thus !ar a&&ears to have
"een used on% on AP88: An a% 9aeda =a%%-star team> was se%e(ted) trained and dis&at(hed
" the (entra% %eadershi& to the tar'et (ountr to (arr out an atta(#* Bin Faden.s stan(e
on (%aims o! res&onsi"i%it shi!ted !o%%owin' that event* For months) he (ontinued to den
a% 9aeda.s invo%vement) "ut over time (ame to a(#now%ed'e it and ? @uite re(ent% ?
stated outri'ht that he &ersona%% oversaw a%% the detai%s*
The hand&i(#ed o&eratives used !or AP88 or an other atta(# under this mode%
wou%d "e) " de!inition) "etter trained than the ad ho( o&eratives "ehind the version 8*7
and 8*8 atta(#s ? and rou'h% e@ua% in stature to the 8*7 (ommanders* For the most &art)
the a%%-star teams a&&ear to have &ra(ti(ed "etter o&erationa% se(urit than their !ore"ears
as we%% ? thou'h) not "ein' su&ermen) the did ma#e some trade(ra!t mista#es*
This mode% &rovides "oth ta(ti(a% advanta'es and disadvanta'es !or the host
or'ani,ation* On the u&side) it a%%ows !or e5(e%%ent (ommand and (ontro% o! the
o&eration* On the downside) it is a resour(e-intensive mode%K numerous o&eratives are
re@uired) as is a !a(i%it !or trainin') and a (ommand stru(ture (a&a"%e o! stain' in
(ommuni(ation with the a'ents in the !ie%d and &rovidin' them with %o'isti(a% su&&ort*
2iven the (%ues un(overed a!ter AP88 and the e!!orts o! the +nited States and other
(ountries to disru&t su(h in!rastru(ture) it is (urrent% ver di!!i(u%t !or a% 9aeda to
em&%o this mode%* This) in turn) %ed to a devo%ution o! sorts !or the or'ani,ation and the
ado&tion o! a third o&erationa% mode%*
The E*7 mode% ? whi(h a&&%ies to most o! the atta(#s attri"uted to a% 9aeda sin(e
AP88 ? invo%ves ='rassroots Dihadists*> B this) we mean (e%%s with a %o(a% %eadershi&
(arrin' out atta(#s in a (ountr with whi(h the have a %on' asso(iation ? rather than
(ommanders or 'rou&s o! o&eratives who are de&%oed " the (entra% a% 9aeda (ommand
!or &ur&oses o! (ondu(tin' a stri#e in a !orei'n (ountr* 1n some (ases) it a&&ears that
mem"ers or %eaders o! these (e%%s have "een trained at terrorist (am&s or !ou'ht in a Dihad
somewhere) "ut the are !or the most &art (iti,ens who have "een ins&ired " a% 9aeda)
and the (e%%s have done their re(ruitin' %o(a%%* Moreover) the (hoose tar'ets and
(ondu(t o&erations on% in the (ountries where the %ive*
05am&%es o! this mode% mi'ht "e !ound with a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a
and 0'&t.s Tawhid wa a%-Jihad) the 'rou& that has (%aimed re(ent atta(#s a'ainst tourist
tar'ets in the Sinai 4eninsu%a* 1t a&&ears a% 9aeda E*7 o&eratives %a(# the s#i%% and
o&erationa% savv o! their 6*7 (ounter&artsK the have a tenden( to ma#e o&erationa%
errors that %ead to thwarted &%ots and arrests*
1t is &ossi"%e) "ut not a &rere@uisite) within the E*7 mode% that o&eratives have
(onta(t with the (entra% or'ani,ation* Mohammed Siddi@ue Khan) "e%ieved to have "een
the %eader o! the (e%% that (arried out mu%ti&%e "om"in's in Fondon in Ju% 6775)
a&&arent% had some (onta(t with a% 9aeda in 4a#istan* /everthe%ess) this or'ani,ationa%
stru(ture di!!ers si'ni!i(ant% !rom the 8*7 and 6*7 mode%s in that the o&erationa%
(ommander andPor atta(# team is not dis&at(hed " the a% 9aeda %eadershi& to another
(ountr !or &ur&oses o! an o&eration*
1nterestin'% enou'h) a% 9aeda has (%aimed man) i! not most) o! the atta(#s that
!a%% under the E*7 mode% ? even thou'h the %eadershi& was) " de!inition) !ar %ess
invo%ved in the &%annin' and e5e(ution o! su(h o&erations than o! others that it denied*
Al Qae(a 678?
1t is within this (onte5t that the un!o%din' (ase in Canada is most si'ni!i(ant* As
detai%s emer'e) it is "e(omin' a&&arent that those arrested wou%d ? i! the a%%e'ations are
true ? re&resent a 'rassroots (e%%* Authorities sa the have !ound no eviden(e %in#in'
the sus&e(ts to the (entra% a% 9aeda %eadershi&* ;owever) it a%so wou%d seem that the men
went "eond the E*7 mode% o! thin#in' and a(tin' %o(a%%* 2iven the %in#s to sus&e(ts in
the +nited States HSade@uee and AhmedI and to o&eratives in Britain) there is reason to
"e%ieve that the mi'ht have "een &art o! an internationa% networ# o! %o(a% (e%%s ? or
'rassroots 'rou&s that =thin# '%o"a%% and a(t %o(a%%)> to "orrow a &hrase*
The im&%i(ation here is one o! e5&anded (a&a"i%ities* A E*7 o&eration wou%d "e)
!or a%% intents and &ur&oses) !air% iso%ated: Dihadists stri#in' at %o(a% tar'ets within their
rea(h) with e5istin' means* A :*7 o&eration (ou%d entai% more so&histi(ated %eve%s o!
(oordination ? and the &ossi"i%it o! simu%taneous stri#es a'ainst 'eo'ra&hi(a%% diverse
tar'ets H!or instan(e) Fondon) Toronto and /ew Cor#I* 4revious%) su(h a !eat (ou%d on%
have "een a((om&%ished " the (ore a% 9aeda or'ani,ation* For a 'rassroots networ# to
a((om&%ish that !eat) without dire(t invo%vement !rom the (entra% %eadershi&) wou%d
re&resent a 'enerationa% %ea& !orward in Dihadist o&erations*
The 1nternet seems to "e an im&ortant !a(tor that is !osterin' the emer'en(e o!
su(h a %oose) "ut (ohesive) stru(ture* O! (ourse) &ersona% re%ationshi&s are sti%% im&ortant*
1n the (ase in @uestion) Sade@uee ? who %ived in Canada "e!ore movin' to the +nited
States ? is the &ivota% !i'ure* ;e and Ahmed ? who are (har'ed with havin' videota&ed
&otentia% tar'ets in the -ashin'ton) 3*C*) area ? are said to have met durin' 6775 with
men he #new !rom his time in Canada) and three o! those men were amon' the 8B
rounded u& %ast wee#* But the 1nternet is a 'reat !a(i%itator o! (ommuni(ations as we%%*
Sin(e AP88) (hatrooms and -e" sites have e5&erien(ed a sur'e in &o&u%arit amon'
Dihadists* The &rovide a 'reat !orum !or %i#e-minded &eo&%e to (onne(t* 1ndeed)
te(hno%o' is not ne(essari% ver"oten !or the (urrent 'eneration o! Dihadists) 1s%amist
&rin(i&%es notwithstandin'K another o! the sus&e(ts (onne(ted to the Canada (ase is a
(om&uter ha(#er and =("erwarrior> !rom Britain) Counis Tsou%i) who 'oes " the hand%e
=1rha"i77B*>
Si'ni!i(ant%) the 1nternet (an "e an A(hi%%es. hee% !or Dihadist networ#s* 1t 'ives
authorities a wa o! identi!in' &eo&%e who ma have "e(ome radi(a%i,ed and a means to
monitor their "ehavior ? "oth virtua% and &hsi(a% ? and (ommuni(ations* Authorities
a%so (an esta"%ish and nurture re%ationshi&s with sus&e(ted mi%itants on%ine) mu(h as the
!re@uent% im&ersonate (hi%dren on the 1nternet in e!!orts to (at(h &edo&hi%es*
Faw en!or(ement and inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies a%so mi'ht !ind it &ossi"%e to in!i%trate
mi%itant (e%%s or re(ruit sour(es within (ertain (ommunities in order to disru&t atta(#
&%ans* This o&tion is &arti(u%ar% via"%e when a (e%% is e5treme% %ar'e) %i#e the 8B-man
'rou& in Canada* That said) it a%so (an "e di!!i(u%t to identi! and tar'et (e%%s e!!e(tive%)
&arti(u%ar% when authorities are dea%in' with a %ar'e universe o! &otentia% sus&e(ts*
ase %+u(- No+es
As a ta(ti(a% (ase stud) the events in Canada o!!er u& severa% other o&erationa%
%essons* One intri'uin' &oint is that) a((ordin' to the a%%e'ations) the (e%% (ontinued to
move ahead with &%ans !or atta(#s) even a!ter (onta(ts in other (ountries had "een
arrested* Tsou%i and some o! his asso(iates were ta#en into (ustod in O(to"er 6775K the
arrests o! Ahmed Hin the +nited StatesI and Sade@uee Hin Ban'%adeshI !o%%owed in Mar(h
and A&ri% o! this ear* Moreover) the indi(tments in the +*S* (ase) whi(h were wide%
re&orted in the +*S* and Canadian &ress) noted that Ahmed and Sade@uee had trave%ed to
Canada in Mar(h 6775 to meet with sus&e(ts who were "ein' a(tive% investi'ated at that
time*
/ow) (onventiona% wisdom wou%d di(tate that an (e%%s in o&erationa% mode
wou%d 'o under'round when their asso(iates started 'ettin' rounded u&) and attem&t to
#ee& their noses (%ean unti% a!ter the heat was o!!* But the a%%e'ations in the Canada (ase
wou%d indi(ate that (onventiona% wisdom he%d no swa: The (e%% mem"ers #e&t &%u''in'
ri'ht a%on' with their &%ans re'ard%ess* From a %aw-en!or(ement and inte%%i'en(e
stand&oint) this unders(ores the need !or (ontinued vi'i%an(e a!ter a &%ot seemin'% has
"een thwartedK Fettin' down one.s 'uard and assumin' the dan'er has &assed is not an
o&tion) sin(e other &%ots in the &i&e%ine mi'ht not ne(essari% have "een she%ved* This)
however) is not an entire% new %esson* Simi%ar ((%es were evident in 8AAE ? a 'rou& o!
(ons&irators who had "een tied to the -or%d Trade Center "om"in' (e%% attem&ted to
atta(# other tar'ets in /ew Cor# Cit a !ew months a!terward ? and in 6775) with the
"ot(hed &u"%i( transit "om"in's on% two wee#s a!ter the Ju% B atta(#s*
Se&arate%) one must note that most o! the sus&e(ts in the Canada 8B (ase were
ver oun' ? too oun' to have !ou'ht Dihad in &%a(es %i#e A!'hanistan or Bosnia) as
had man o! the Nersion 8*7 o&eratives* Thus) the emer'in' :*7 stru(ture) with its a!!init
!or the 1nternet) mi'ht "e a natura% resu%t o! =2eneration C> Dihadists see#in' to (reate an
in!rastru(ture*
As a !o%%ow-on to that) man o! the Canadian sus&e(ts re&orted% "e(ame
radi(a%i,ed in a short time) !o%%owin' AP88* This radi(a%i,ation &ro(ess a%so has "een
o"served with 'rassroots o&eratives in Fondon and e%sewhere in the re(ent &ast* -e are
reminded here that a% 9aeda) %i#e the vio%ent anar(hists o! the 8Ath (entur) a&t% mi'ht
re!er to its atta(#s as =&ro&a'anda o! the deed*> Amon' its &rimar o"De(tives in (arrin'
out the AP88 atta(#s was sendin' a messa'e o! em&owerment to the Mus%im &eo&%e and
s&ar#in' a 'enera% u&risin' that wou%d (u%minate in the re"irth o! the Ca%i&hate* -hi%e the
envisioned u&risin' did not materia%i,e) it has "e(ome in(reasin'% o"vious that a%
9aeda.s messa'e o! em&owerment and the (a%% to Dihad has resonated stron'% with some
&eo&%e*
Another o"De(tive o! AP88 was to s&ar# an Ameri(an reta%iation ? a 'oa% in whi(h
a% 9aeda o"vious% su((eeded* The +*S* invasions o! A!'hanistan and 1ra@ have "een
viewed " man in the Mus%im wor%d as a''ression a'ainst 1s%am) and !or 'rassroots
mi%itants Hes&e(ia%% those o! 2eneration CI this is reason enou'h to a(t* The &assions o!
these oun' Dihadists have "een !urther en!%amed " their views o! the 1srae%iP4a%estinian
dnami( and events in other &arts o! the Mus%im wor%d* The !ee% a drivin' need to do
somethin' a"out &er(eived a''ression a'ainst !e%%ow Mus%ims) even i! the do not (are
a"out the 'oa% o! re-esta"%ishin' the Ca%i&hate* This is a di!!erent 'enre o! rationa% a(tors*
The rea%i,e that their atta(#s are not %i#e% to (ontri"ute to the reviva% o! Mus%im
&o%iti(a% &owerK the a(t instead out o! an'er and ven'ean(e*
Thus !ar) o&erationa% se(urit HO4S0CI has "een the "ane o! the 'rassroots
Dihadists* Man sus&e(ted (e%%s) in(%udin' the one in Canada) have "een disru&ted as a
resu%t o! &oor O4S0C* ;owever) due to the sheer num"ers o! !ish in the &ond) and the
man was o! "%endin' in or es(a&in' noti(e) it is hard !or authorities to identi! and
monitor a%% o! these individua%s) even when the ma#e mista#es* Some inevita"% wi%% s%i&
throu'h the (ra(#s* 1t a%so must "e remem"ered that) (ontroversia% ideo%o'ies aside) man
o! these &eo&%e are hi'h% inte%%i'ent and we%% edu(ated* Some are "ound to stud and
%earn !rom the mista#es made " their &rede(essors ? and evo%ve into smarter !ish*
At the ver %east) the evo%utionar ((%e ? (at(hin' u& ever-oun'er 'enerations
o! Dihadists ? is et another so%id indi(ation that Dihadism wi%% %in'er even i! the
%eadershi& o! the a% 9aeda or'ani,ation shou%d "e %o(ated and destroed* 1deo%o' is
mu(h harder to #i%% than individua%s) and this &arti(u%ar ideo%o' now a&&ears to have
ta#en root amon' Mus%im &o&u%ations stret(hin' !rom Fondon) Ontario) to Fondon)
0n'%and) to Fahore* The emer'en(e o! 2eneration C mi%itants indi(ates that the &ro"%em
is not %i#e% to disa&&ear (om&%ete% in the !uture*
Fina%%) the a"i%it o! 'rassroots (e%%s to networ# a(ross internationa% "oundaries)
and even a(ross o(eans) &resents the &ossi"i%it that a% 9aeda :*7 (e%%s (ou%d) now or in
the !uture) &ose a si'ni!i(ant threat even without a (entra% %eadershi& stru(ture ?
meanin') a stru(ture that (an "e identi!ied) monitored and atta(#ed* 1! these 'rassroots
or'ani,ations "e'in to im&rove their O4S0C &ra(ti(es) the ris# the re&resent wi%%
in(rease* This ver we%% (ou%d "e(ome the dominant o&erationa% mode% !or the
!oreseea"%e !uture*
The -e" o! Jihad: Strate'i( +ti%it and Ta(ti(a% -ea#ness
6une 17, 2009
-ith the death %ast wee# o! A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi) the wor%d has "een !o(used
on the !uture o! his a% 9aeda in 1ra@ or'ani,ation* And whi%e that is an im&ortant
@uestion) &arti(u%ar% as it re%ates to the se(urit situation in 1ra@) it is !ittin' a%so to
re!%e(t on the histor and im&a(t o! a%-Jar@awi.s vio%ent movement* The 'rou& has "een)
o! (ourse) we%%-#nown !or (ondu(tin' !re@uent sui(ide "om"in's in 1ra@ and the
simu%taneous sui(ide stri#es at three hote%s in Jordan %ast !a%%) "ut its "ruta%it is not
ne(essari% what made a%-Jar@awi a househo%d name* That (ame a"out %ar'e% "e(ause o!
a% 9aeda in 1ra@.s s#i%%!u% use o! the 1nternet* 1t has em"ra(ed te(hno%o' in a wa
hereto!ore un&re(edented !or an Dihadist 'rou&*
1n addition to &ostin' sho(#in' videos o! de(a&itations to the -e") the
=in!ormation win'> o! a%-Jar@awi.s 'rou& routine% &osted statements Ho!ten severa% in a
sin'%e daI) videos o! sui(ide o&erations and am"ushes and eu%o'ies &raisin' and
'%ori!in' sui(ide o&eratives* 1t even &u"%ished a month% -e" ma'a,ine* The
in!ormation win' o! a% 9aeda in 1ra@ has "een a"%e to &ut a s%i(#) &ro!essiona% !a(e on the
(ause o! the %ar'er a% 9aeda or'ani,ation ? whi%e a%so do(umentin' a(hievements on the
"att%e!ie%d) in(u%(atin' readers with the theo%o' o! Dihadism and enti(in' new re(ruits to
Doin the Dihadist stru''%e*
This use o! te(hno%o' has &%aed into the evo%ution o! the Dihadist movement and
ma now "e he%&in' to !oster new in(arnations o! a% 9aeda* But Dust as si'ni!i(ant%) use
o! the 1nternet has (ertain draw"a(#s* There is on% so mu(h that (an "e done in
("ers&a(e* Ta(ti(a% rea%ities and o&erationa% se(urit (on(erns mandate that some
a(tivities must "e (ondu(ted in the &hsi(a% wor%d ? and it is at this Dun(ture) in ma#in'
the transition !rom virtua% to a(tua% rea%it) that newer a(tors we%% (ou%d "e at their most
vu%nera"%e*
T,e I0+er0e+ a0( '),a()s+s
1n his use o! the 1nternet) a%-Jar@awi stood out even !rom other to& a% 9aeda
%eaders %i#e Osama "in Faden and Aman a%-Jawahiri) who sti%% re% on more standard
Ara"i(-%an'ua'e media out%ets Hnota"% A% Ja,eera TNI to distri"ute im&ortant messa'es*
The in!ormation win' o! a%-Jar@awi.s 'rou& &osted his statements dire(t% to
&ro!essiona%-%oo#in' -e" sites o! their own (reation ? and) &ro&ortiona%%) did so in !ar
'reater @uantities than the (ore a% 9aeda 'rou&* 2ranted) %o(ation and amenities were in
a%% &ro"a"i%it a #e !a(torK a%-Jar@awi.s node in 1ra@ has "een o&eratin' in an ur"an
environment) whi%e "in Faden and a%-Jawahiri are "e%ieved to "e hidin' in the ru''ed
hinter%ands a%on' the A!'hanistan-4a#istan "order* /everthe%ess) the oun'er 'rou&.s
em"ra(e o! te(hno%o' seems to trans(end that 'eo'ra&hi(a% di!!eren(e to re!%e(t a
&hi%oso&hi(a% and &erha&s even 'enerationa% di!!eren(e*
-ithin this vein) a% 9aeda in 1ra@ has used the 1nternet in two ver si'ni!i(ant
was: to disseminate &ro&a'anda in rea% time) and to sha&e &u"%i( &er(e&tions and de"ate
in "oth the 1s%ami( and -estern s&heres* 1n other words) the -e" has "een a time%)
e!!i(ient and e!!e(tive too% !or (ondu(tin' in!ormation war!are) whi(h is #e !or "rea#in'
the wi%% o! the enem and in motivatin' one.s own !or(es*
That said) the use o! the -e" " Dihadist 'rou&s !ar &redates a% 9aeda in 1ra@*
-ith the %aun(h in 8AA6 o! the A,,am*(om -e" site ? so named in honor o! "in Faden.s
mentor ? Dihadists had a &ro!essiona%-%oo#in' =store !ront> that a%%owed them to &rovide
ins&iration) news and instru(tion to adherents and &otentia% re(ruits) and whi(h "e(ame a
(hanne% !or others to initiate (onta(t with Dihadist 'rou&s* A,,am*(om "e(ame an
im&ortant me(hanism throu'h whi(h !unds !or Dihadist 'rou&s (ou%d "e raised and wi%%in'
vo%unteers (ou%d !ind was to %in# u& with Dihadist 'rou&s in &%a(es %i#e Che(hna and
Bosnia* 1t a%so &rovided ti&s on ste&s to ta#e in order to attend mi%itant trainin' (am&s run
" or'ani,ations %i#e a% 9aeda*
Fo%%owin' the AP88 atta(#s) there was a virtua% e5&%osion o! Dihadist a(tivit on the
-e" ? ran'in' !rom (hat rooms and "%o's that "e(ame &o&u%ar with =Dihadist
(heer%eaders> to sites run " a(tua% mem"ers o! mi%itant 'rou&s* Man o! these Dihadist
=("erwarriors> are in their %ate teens or ear% twenties) and man o! them have "een
edu(ated in the -est* Some o! the ("erwarriors ? %i#e Counis Tsou%i) the British (iti,en
usin' the hand%e =1rha"i77B> ? dis(over Dihadism on%ine and then move on to Doin the
(ause in the rea% wor%d* O!ten) the Doin or !orm 'rassroots (e%%s and "e(ome what we
have %a"e%ed =a% 9aeda Nersion E*7 or :*7> o&eratives*
As we have dis(ussed) the 1nternet has "een a 'reat ena"%er !or 'rassroots (e%%s to
s&read their ideo%o' and re(ruit new a(o%tes ? and indeed) it a%so seems to have 'iven
them the a"i%it to networ# a(ross o(eans and "orders* ;owever) the 1nternet o!ten has
&roven to "e an A(hi%%es. hee% !or (%andestine 'rou&s as we%%* This is an area that warrants
some stud*
")sks a0( L).)+a+)o0s
From a ta(ti(a% &ers&e(tive) there are some thin's that sim&% (annot "e done over
the 1nternet ? either !or &ra(ti(a% reasons or in %i'ht o! o&erationa% se(urit
(onsiderations*
For e5am&%e) re(ruitin' a new mem"er into a (e%% (an "e a ver ris# a(tivit
under an (ir(umstan(es ? and even more dan'erous in the =virtua% wor%d*> At an
&oint) a Dihadist or or'ani,ed (rime 'rou& mi'ht !ind it has o&ened itse%! u& to someone
who (an.t #ee& a se(ret) whose %oa%ties are sus&e(t or who (an "e "ou'ht !or the ri'ht
&ri(e* These ris#s 'o u& (onsidera"% in ("ers&a(e* 4eo&%e on the 1nternet are not a%was
who the &ortra themse%ves to "e HJust as# anone who.s had a "ad on%ine datin'
e5&erien(e*I For the Dihadist re(ruiter) then) it (an "e e5treme% di!!i(u%t to determine i!
the &erson at the other end o! the #e"oard is indeed a rea% Dihadist) or a &otentia%
in!i%trator attem&tin' to &enetrate the 'rou&*
And "e(ause on%ine (ommuni(ations (an "e monitored) &%annin' and (oordinatin'
atta(#s over the 1nternet or in (hat rooms wou%d "e in(redi"% !oo%ish "ehavior* 1t is %itt%e
wonder) then) that des&ite their enthusiasti( em"ra(e o! the 1nternet) a% 9aeda in 1ra@ too#
that em"ra(e on% so !ar* The (arried out these more (%andestine !un(tions the o%d-
!ashioned wa: in &erson* 0ven in the AP88 &%ot) when team %eader Mohammed Atta
needed to dis(uss (om&%e5 and sensitive o&erationa% issues) he in(urred the ris#s o!
trave%in' to 2erman and S&ain to meet with Ram,i "in a%-Shi"h in &erson rather than
dis(uss the sensitive detai%s on the &hone or throu'h e-mai%s*

There is a universe o! ta(ti(a% s#i%%s in whi(h ="oo# %earnin'> is an im&ortant !irst
ste& "ut wi%% never "e a via"%e su"stitute !or a(tua% &ra(ti(e on the street* This a&&%ies to
thin's %i#e wea&ons trainin' and "ui%din' "om"s* The 'uidan(e that a% 9aeda in the
Ara"ian 4eninsu%a has &u"%ished in the on%ine Mas#aar A%-Battar ma'a,ine !or usin' an
SN3 sni&er ri!%e or a ro(#et-&ro&e%%ed 'renade %aun(her mi'ht 'et someone out o! the
startin' "%o(#s) "ut there is no wa to "e(ome &ro!i(ient in usin' a wea&on without
a(tua%% hand%in' one* Simi%ar%) it is @uite di!!i(u%t to sim&% !o%%ow a re(i&e or written
instru(tions and "ui%d a &er!e(t% !un(tionin' im&rovised e5&%osive devi(e !rom s(rat(hK
as with an s(ienti!i( endeavor) tria% and error and testin' in the rea% wor%d usua%% is
re@uired* Bom"-ma#in' is a s#i%% "est %earned !rom an e5&erien(ed tea(her Hand man
&otentia% tea(hers have "%own themse%ves u& in the &ro(ess o! "e(omin' e5&ertsI*
0ven a(@uirin' the ne(essar materia%s (an "e di!!i(u%t !or wou%d-"e Dihadists
without &ro&er) rea%-wor%d (onne(tions* The a%%e'ed (e%% re(ent% arrested in Toronto ?
now du""ed the =Canada 8B> ? were rounded u& a!ter the a%%e'ed% tried to "u E tons
o! ammonium nitrate !erti%i,er* 4ur(hases o! su(h =&re(ursor su"stan(es> now tend to
raise red !%a's with authorities in the -estern wor%d ? a !a(t that hi'h%i'hts the
di!!i(u%ties o! ma#in' the transition !rom terrorism in theor to terrorism in &ra(ti(e*
+n%ess one is (ontent with =("er atta(#s> and ha(#er (rimes) thou'h) it is a
ne(essar transition* ;istor has shown re&eated% that) even when &re-o&erationa%
&%annin' and other a(tivities have "e'un in ("ers&a(e) Dihadists (ondu(t survei%%an(e o!
their tar'ets in the &hsi(a% wor%d as a matter o! routine* From the 8AAE -or%d Trade
Center "om"in' to the AP88 atta(#s to the Fondon "om"in's %ast Ju%) it has "een a&&arent
that Dihadists (ondu(t not on% survei%%an(e) "ut a%so dr runs o! their o&erations when
&ossi"%e* The re(o'ni,e) as do %aw en!or(ement a'ents) that however detai%ed a &i(ture
o! a tar'et mi'ht a&&ear on a -e" site) it is a sna&shot o! rea%it ? and a &artia% one at
that ? that has "een !ro,en in time* Su((ess!u% atta(#s de&end on #now%ed'e o! %ar'e
swathes o! terrain) se(urit routines and other detai%s that (annot "e o"tained !rom videos
or &hoto'ra&hs* 0es-on survei%%an(e is &ri(e%ess*
T,e r)+)cal 1o.e0+
2iven these rea%ities) there (omes a (riti(a% moment when Dihadists must a"andon
the ("er-wor%d !or the rea% wor%d* 1t is at this &oint that man mi%itant (e%%s %ivin' and
o&eratin' in the -est have "een dis(overed and their &%ots thwarted*
One reason !or this is that des&ite the ra&id and near-tota% em"ra(e o! te(hno%o'
" some Dihadists) the +*S* 'overnment and its a%%ies have "een deve%o&in' their si'na%s
and (ommuni(ations inte%%i'en(e sstems !or a ver %on' time now ? thin# B%et(h%e
4ar# in the 8AE7s and 8A:7s ? and have a 'reat dea% o! e5&ertise and (om&utin' &ower
at their dis&osa%* The investi'ative and survei%%an(e a&&aratus is not &arti(u%ar% nim"%e)
"ut it is ver e!!e(tive on(e it has a tar'et on whi(h to !o(us*
Su(h tar'ets (an "e &rovided " unwar Dihadist sm&athi,ers who visit radi(a%
-e" sites) or " ti&s that (ome throu'h !orei'n 'overnment %iaisons* For e5am&%e) in the
Canada 8B (ase) the sus&e(ts a%%e'ed% had (onne(tions to se&arate (e%%s in Britain and
the +nited States* B wor#in' to'ether) the British) Canadian and +*S* 'overnments were
a"%e to mass their resour(es and %evera'e or share in!ormation* As has o!ten "een the (ase
with investi'ations o! or'ani,ed (rime 'rou&s) authorities in di!!erent Durisdi(tions had
di!!erent &ie(es o! the &u,,%eK a%one) the in!ormation meant %itt%e) "ut when (oo&eratin'
servi(es sat down to'ether to dis(uss and share in!ormation) a "i''er &i(ture emer'ed*
Another reason that the transition &hase is so dan'erous !or as&irin' mi%itants has
to do with the %e'a% sstem in the +nited States and e%sewhere* For e5am&%e) in the
+nited States) Britain and Canada) !reedom o! s&ee(h ho%ds swa as %on' as sus&e(ts
don.t a(tua%% 'o so !ar as to en(oura'e or order others to (arr out atta(#s) or threaten to
(ondu(t su(h atta(#s themse%ves* The same thin' 'oes !or (ons&ira( (ases Hat %east in the
+nited States*I A 'rou& (an (ons&ire to (arr out a vio%ent atta(# as mu(h as it wantsK
unti% an overt a(t is made in !urtheran(e o! that (ons&ira() the sus&e(ts (annot "e
(har'ed with a (rime* The &oint at whi(h mi%itants %eave the ("er-wor%d and "e'in to
ta#e a(tion in the rea% wor%d is where the "e'in to ma#e overt a(ts in !urtheran(e o! their
(ons&ira() and it is then that %aw en!or(ement a'en(ies have the %e'a% e%ements the need
to ma#e arrests) (ondu(t sear(hes and "rin' (rimina% (har'es*
1n the Canada 8B (ase) the Roa% Canadian Mounted 4o%i(e HRCM4I has said
&u"%i(% that it moved a'ainst the sus&e(ts at Dust su(h a (riti(a% moment: The a%%e'ed (e%%
attem&ted to "u materia%s that (ou%d "e used to manu!a(ture e5&%osives* To &ara&hrase
an RCM4 s&o#esman) the threat the sus&e(ts were "e%ieved to &ose to the &u"%i() at that
&oint) no %on'er was a((e&ta"%e*
1t is not et (%ear what the !uture wi%% ho%d !or a%-Jar@awi.s or'ani,ation in 1ra@)
"ut !or the evo%vin' 'eneration o! Dihadists as a who%e) &ast (ou%d "e &ro%o'ue*
+%timate%) the dot-(om terrorists mi'ht %earn the same %essons as the dot-(om
entre&reneurs o! the 8AA7s: There is no =new &aradi'm> in their industr* The most
su((ess!u% mi%itants have re(o'ni,ed a%% a%on' that (ertain "asi( ru%es ? and o&erationa%
&ra(ti(es ? sti%% a&&%* And !or those who !ai% to 'ras& that rea%it) there wi%% "e a &ain!u%
winnowin'*
A% 9aeda: The /e5t 2eneration
,ov) 8, 2009
A madrassa in Chin'ai) 4a#istan ? a sma%% vi%%a'e near the northwestern "order
with A!'hanistan ? was destroed and at %east G7 &eo&%e were re&orted% #i%%ed " a
&ower!u% airstri#e O(t* E8* There have "een re&orts that Aman a%-Jawahiri) a% 9aeda.s
/o* 6 man) was the intended tar'et* Most o! those #i%%ed are thou'ht to have "een
tea(hers and students !rom the madrassaK however) the resu%ts o! !orensi( tests to identi!
man o! the vi(tims are sti%% &endin') and a% 9aeda mi%itants eventua%% (ou%d "e
identi!ied as amon' the dead*
The madrassa that was stru(# was %o(ated a %itt%e more than a mi%e !rom the
vi%%a'e o! 3amado%a) the site o! an airstri#e in Januar that was a%so intended to #i%% a%-
Jawahiri* H;e was not &resent at the time o! the Januar atta(# "ut !our other senior a%
9aeda o&eratives re&orted% were #i%%ed*I 1! a%-Jawahiri indeed was the tar'et o! the O(t*
E8 stri#e) it is (%ear that inte%%i'en(e has %ed the +*S* and 4a#istani 'overnments to
"e%ieve he is movin' a"out in a ver s&e(i!i( area o! northwestern 4a#istan*
1! a%-Jawahiri survived this %atest stri#e ? and i!) as in the &ast) he wants to o!!er
(ontinued =&roo! o! %i!e> to his su&&orters and need%e the +nited States ? he wi%% "e
&rodu(in' a video or audiota&e @uite soon*
1n !a(t) in the &ast there has "een a dis(erni"%e and (onsistent %a' o! a"out two to
three wee#s "etween the events that tri''er a%-Jawahiri.s videos Hwhi(h he mentions in
his messa'esI and the re%ease o! As-Saha" &rodu(tions* For instan(e) in the 3amado%a
(ase) the stri#e o((urred Jan* 8E and a video o! a%-Jawahiri ? tauntin' the +nited States
!or havin' missed him ? was re%eased Jan* E7* Simi%ar%) the ta&e eu%o'i,in' A"u Musa"
a%-Jar@awi was re%eased June 6EK the mi%itant %eader in 1ra@ was #i%%ed June 6* +sin' this
&attern as a 'uide) we wou%d e5&e(t As-Saha" &rodu(tions to send out a "anner ad)
announ(in' a !orth(omin' video) to Dihadist -e" sites and messa'e "oards %ate this wee#
or ear% ne5t wee#) with the video airin' a da or two %ater*
1n the interim) however) there is a @uestion to "e &ondered: -hat i! =&roo! o! %i!e>
does not emer'e< There %on' have "een rumors that Osama "in Faden is dead or din')
and it is si'ni!i(ant that a%-Jawahiri ? who) some &ersona% a(@uaintan(es have said)
&re!ers the /o* 6 &osition to the ro%e o! to& %eadershi& H"e%ievin' it to "e more &ower!u%I
? has "een the &u"%i( !a(e o! a% 9aeda !or @uite some time* So !ar this ear) he has
a&&eared in a do,en As-Saha" &rodu(tions H(om&ared to on% !ive !or "in Faden) whose
s&ate o! voi(e re(ordin's in the !irst ha%! o! the ear (onstituted an un(hara(teristi( media
"%it,I* Su&&osin' that a%-Jawahiri (ou%d have "een #i%%ed " the re(ent airstri#e ? or wi%%
#i%%ed "e " a !uture airstri#e in the same re'ion ? who mi'ht emer'e to !i%% the &ower
void<
Look)05 for Lea(ers,)3
Sin(e the disru&tion o! its "ase in A!'hanistan in 6778) it (%ear% has "e(ome more
di!!i(u%t !or a% 9aeda to (u%tivate and deve%o& the ne5t 'eneration o! %eaders* Man
&rominent se(ond-tier (ommanders have "een (a&tured or #i%%ed in the war) and there has
"een a de(ided movement toward a =virtua% trainin'> mode%) with &u"%i(ations su(h as
Muas#ar a%-Battar emer'in') &arti(u%ar% in the ear% ears o! the war) to &rovide the
#inds o! ta(ti(a% trainin' that on(e too# &%a(e in a% 9aeda.s (am&s*
/everthe%ess) sin(e the "e'innin' o! 6776 there have "een indi(ations that a%
9aeda.s %eadershi& is retren(hin' and "e(omin' more (om!orta"%e* Bin Faden issued a
!%urr o! audiota&es "etween Jan* 8A and Ju% 8) and a%-Jawahiri.s numerous videos have
"een s%i(#) &ro!essiona%-'rade &rodu(tions* That) &%us the more (onsistent time !rames
invo%ved in the re%ease o! statements) indi(ates the %eadershi& on(e a'ain has esta"%ished a
sense o! se(urit and "ui%t u& a de'ree o! in!rastru(ture*
-hether this wi%% "e the 'rou&.s undoin') as it was in A!'hanistan) remains to "e
seen* ;owever) it is @uite &ossi"%e that) havin' entered a &eriod o! re%ative sta"i%it) the a%
9aeda %eadershi& ? %ess (on(erned with the immediate issues o! surviva% ? has "een
a"%e to devote some attention to the (ru(ia% issue o! su((ession*
Chain o! (ommand is a vita% issue !or an mi%itar or'ani,ation) es&e(ia%% one
that (ou%d %ose its %eaders at an time to a 4redator stri#e* Moreover) neither a%-Jawahiri
nor "in Faden is a oun' man) even i! the (ou%d (%aim to "e ha%e and heart ? and) not
"ein' de%usiona%) the re(o'ni,e that death is the (ertain end o! a%% men* The 'rou&
(%ear% has a %on'-term &ers&e(tive re'ardin' the war it has de(%ared a'ainst the =Jews
and Crusaders*> 1t doesn.t e5&e(t it to end tomorrow) and it is in !or the %on' hau%* Thus)
@uestions o! "att%e!ie%d ne(essit aside) there is ever reason !or the u&&er e(he%on to
identi! and "e'in to (u%tivate the ne5t 'eneration o! %eadershi&*
2iven the %eve% o! attrition a% 9aeda has su!!ered in the &ast severa% ears ? and
&arti(u%ar% with the death o! a%-Jar@awi in 1ra@ ? there are not man at the moment
who have the "road &u"%i( re(o'nition) the "a(#'round or the res&e(t needed to !i%% the
void that wi%% "e %e!t " a%-Jawahiri* Thou'h a num"er o! ta(ti(a% (ommanders and
%eaders Hsu(h as A"u Au" a%-Masri) a% 9aeda.s new %eader in 1ra@I have risen u& to
re&%a(e those #i%%ed or (a&tured) most are not we%%-#nown " a% 9aeda.s su&&orters and
'rassroots !o%%owers* That is si'ni!i(ant: The man who re&%a(es a%-Jawahiri wi%% need to
"e "oth re(o'ni,a"%e and res&e(ted* One wa to 'ain that re(o'nition and res&e(t is turn
the &erson into a media &ersona%it ? a (e%e"rit) i! ou wi%%) in the Dihadist universe*
Sin(e As-Saha" is a% 9aeda.s most re(o'ni,ed and authoritative media out%et) a
%oo# at those !eatured in its videos over the &ast ear (ou%d &rovide some (%ues as to who
the (urrent %eaders mi'ht "e 'roomin' !or !uture %eadershi& &ositions*
4rominent s&ea#ers in(%ude:
Adam Cahie 2adahn) or =A,,am the Ameri(an*> 2adahn has a&&eared in !our
As-Saha" videos this ear* Be(ause he was "orn and raised in the +nited States)
he is used as a s&o#esman whenever a% 9aeda wants to ensure that its messa'e is
(%ear% heard and understood " an Ameri(an audien(e* Thou'h wide%
re(o'ni,ed) 2adahn %a(#s the e5&erien(e) stature) trust and res&e(t needed to !i%%
a%-Jawahiri.s shoes* Moreover) as an Ameri(an ? and one o! Jewish des(ent) at
that ? he is not @ua%i!ied to %ead the '%o"a% Dihad a'ainst Jews and Crusaders* ;e
is not a (ontender in the %eadershi& (ontest*
Mohammed a%-;a#ama) or A"u Jihad a%-Masri* A%-;a#ama has a&&eared in
one As-Saha" video* ;e is a% 9aeda.s desi'nated re'iona% (ommander in 0'&t)
"ut he is not) at this &oint) wide% #nown or res&e(ted !or his %eadershi& or
a((om&%ishments* Thou'h there is a stron' 0'&tian (adre within a% 9aeda and)
a&&arent%) a "it o! an =o%d "os networ#> %in#ed to a%-Jawahiri) a%-;a#ama has
not et &roven himse%! in 0'&t*
A"u /asir a%-9ahtani) or Htrue nameI Mohammed Ja!ar Jama% a%-Khatani* A%-
9ahtani is a Saudi nationa% and one o! !our sus&e(ts ? the Ba'ram Four ? who
es(a&ed !rom a +*S* mi%itar Dai% in Ba'ram) A!'hanistan) on Ju% 88) 6775* A%-
9ahtani has a&&eared in one As-Saha" video) !rom A&ri%) whi(h tou(hed on the
need to a&&% e5&erien(es and %essons %earned !rom 1ra@ and A!'hanistan to
Dihadist e!!orts in Saudi Ara"ia* This mi%itant su&&osed% is %eadin' a% 9aeda
atta(#s a'ainst (oa%ition !or(es in A!'hanistan* ;e has not "een heard !rom sin(e
the A&ri% video was re%eased*
Omar a%-Farou@* This mi%itant a%so was amon' the !our to es(a&e !rom Ba'ram)
a%on'side a%-9ahtani) in 6775* ;e a&&eared in one As-Saha" video) re%eased in
Fe"ruar* ;e was #i%%ed " British troo&s in 1ra@ on Se&t* 65*
A"u Caha a%-Fi"i) or Shei#h A"u Cehia a%-Fi"i) Mohammed ;assan* A%-Fi"i has
a&&eared in !ive As-Saha" videos this ear) the most re(ent o! whi(h ? =Com"at)
not Surrender> ? a&&eared /ov* 8* A%-Fi"i a%so is one o! the Ba'ram Four* ;e is
a mi%itant &rea(her and re(ruiter) and thus @uite (harismati(* ;e has a&&eared in
numerous videos &rodu(ed " other sour(es su(h as Fa"i# 4rodu(tions) a too%
used " a% 9aeda in A!'hanistan* 1n his videos) he has tou(hed on a num"er o!
im&ortant to&i(s) in(%udin' the (artoon (ontrovers and the death o! a%-Jar@awi*
C%ear%) a%-Fi"i has the advanta'es o! a re(o'ni,a"%e !a(e and) %i#e a%-Jawahiri)
the (a(het a!!orded " havin' "een im&risoned " =Crusader !or(es> !or his &arti(i&ation
in the Dihadist stru''%e Hnot to mention his es(a&e !rom their (ustod) whi(h was @uite
em"arrassin' !or (oa%ition !or(esI* 1n addition) he has &u"%ished a num"er o! %etters and
!atawi that have he%&ed to esta"%ish his stature and authorit as a shei#h* These in(%ude:
A 8B-&a'e !atwa on =The 1n!ide% Kar,ai Re'ime and the /e(essit o! -ar> that
(ir(u%ated on Dihadist messa'e "oards in %ate O(to"er*
A %en'th !atwa (riti(i,in' ;amas and its !ai%ure to adhere to =1s%ami(> &rin(i&%es
and those re%ated to =Dihad> that was &osted on an a% 9aeda-a!!i%iated 1nternet
!orum in %ate A&ri%*
A 67-&a'e %etter to A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi) dated /ov* 6E) 6775) in whi(h he
des(ri"es how news o! a%-Jar@awi.s e5&%oits "uoed his s&irits whi%e he was in
&rison in Ba'ram* The %etter a%so states that 1ra@ had overshadowed A!'hanistan
as an im&ortant theater o! Dihad) and that Dihadists shou%d avoid s&%its and
!a(tiona%isms in the !a(e o! their enem*
A%-Fi"i has "een in the news @uite re(ent% as we%%* 1n O(to"er) A% Ara"ia re-
re%eased a video that ori'ina%% was &rodu(ed " Fa"i# on Ju% 6B* 1n the hour-%on' ta&e)
a%-Fi"i was seen s&ea#in' to a 'rou& o! a% 9aeda !i'hters in southern A!'hanistan) sain')
=A%%ah wi%% not "e &%eased unti% we rea(h the roo!to& o! the -hite ;ouse*> ;e a%so to%d
the mi%itants that =Cou have to 'et we%%-&re&ared " startin' with e5er(ise) and then ou
have to %earn how to use te(hno%o' unti% ou are (a&a"%e o! nu(%ear wea&ons*>
To Lea(* or No+ To Lea(?
A%-Fi"i ? with his (harisma) re%i'ious standin' and emer'en(e as a media
&ersona%it ? wou%d a&&ear the "est-&ositioned o! the s&ea#ers on this %ist to ste& into
an void %e!t " a%-Jawahiri* But even !or someone with these (redentia%s) those wou%d "e
"i' shoes to !i%%* 1t is entire% &ossi"%e that) with the &assin' o! a%-Jawahiri and "in
Faden) a% 9aeda.s trans!ormation !rom or'ani,ation to movement wi%% "e (om&%ete*
Thou'h there have "een (%ear (onne(tions "etween the main a% 9aeda %eadershi&
and o&erationa% (e%%s in &%a(es su(h as the +nited Kin'dom and 1ra@ ? as evident !rom
the 'rou&.s statements) inter(e&ted %etters and sui(ide videos ? the various nodes o! a%
9aeda (urrent% e5ist in more o! a %oose !ederation than a stri(t hierar(hi(a% (hain o!
(ommand* 1t is these nodes that have (ondu(ted the vast maDorit Hi! not a%%I o! the atta(#s
sin(e AP88*
/otin' this transition) we wrote in Se&tem"er 6775 that:
1! ou were to &%ot this out on a (hart) what ou mi'ht see are two trend %ines !ormin' an
QO:. One) de&i(tin' a% 9aeda.s im&a(t as a strate'i( !or(e) on a de(%inin' trendK the other)
de&i(tin' the ta(ti(a% and se(urit threats &osed " a wides&read and %ess-visi"%e
movement) on the in(reaseR* At this &oint) we !ind ourse%ves near the mid&oint on the O*
A% 9aeda has a to& %eadershi& that is) thou'h in hidin') sti%% (a&a"%e o! (ommuni(atin'
with the wor%d throu'h "road(ast re(ordin's and the 1nternet) and ? i! Fondon is an
indi(ation ? !oot so%diers around the wor%d who are (a&a"%e o! !%in' "e%ow the radar
unti% an atta(# a(tua%% is (arried out* 1!) however) a% 9aeda 'e%s as a movement) with its
ideo%o' resonatin' amon' mi%itants with various (auses o! their own) the e5isten(e or
annihi%ation o! wide% re(o'ni,ed !i'ureheads wou%d "e) in most res&e(ts) irre%evant*
1! a%-Jawahiri has "een ta#en out and "in Faden remains somehow out o! the
&i(ture) a%-Fi"i or an other ne5t-'eneration %eader wou%d !ind it (ha%%en'in' indeed to
arrest the &ro'ression !rom ='rou&> to =movement*> 1n !a(t) it wou%d "e at that &oint ?
with the a&e5 %eadershi& res&onsi"%e !or AP88 no %on'er on the s(ene ? that a% 9aeda.s
&ro'ression as a Dihadist =movement> wou%d a((e%erate ra&id%*
There is no @uestion that) thou'h a% 9aeda at that &oint wou%d "e s&ent as a
strate'i( !or(e) the %ar'er issue o! Dihadism wou%d remain* /ew re(ruits are re(eivin'
advan(ed de'rees in Dihad everda at the hi'her institutions o! instru(tion &rovided "
the environment in &%a(es su(h as 1ra@) A!'hanistan and Soma%ia* The a%so have the
wor%dwide =we" o! Dihad> to he%& them &%an and (ommuni(ate) and these nodes (ou%d
ver we%% use their s#i%%s and (ommuni(ation a"i%ities to 'ive rise to a new stru(ture*
There are si'ni!i(ant &ros and (ons to "oth stru(tura% mode%s* 1n the !uturisti(
!orm ? without a (entra% %eadershi& or &%annin' unit ? 'rassroots Dihadists (ou%d remain
%ar'e% !a(e%ess and name%ess) %in#ed to'ether " the 1nternet and o&eratin' under
&seudonms as the &%anned stri#es a'ainst 'eo'ra&hi(a%% diverse tar'ets* ;i'h-&ro!i%e
%eaders wou%d not e5ist !or +*S* or a%%ied inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies to identi!) tra(# down and
#i%%* ;owever) (ases in the +nited States) +nited Kin'dom and Canada this ear have
shown that it is @uite dan'erous to attem&t to (oordinate mi%itant a(tivities throu'h
("ers&a(e* Moreover) i! mu%ti&%e) inde&endent nodes are o&eratin' in the same
environment) it wou%d "e di!!i(u%t to avoid (om&etition) sn(hroni,e a(tivities) a'ree on
tar'et sets and (oo&erate in an (on(erted e!!ort* So!t tar'ets wou%d "e stru(# and)
&ossi"%) hi'h death to%%s 'enerated) "ut these #inds o! 'rassroots stri#es a%most (ertain%
wou%d %a(# the #ind o! strate'i( si'ni!i(an(e a(hieved with AP88*
There a%so is the im&ortant issue o! "an#ro%%in' the Dihad* 1nde&endent stri#es
su(h as the Fondon or Madrid train atta(#s (an "e !air% ine5&ensive to &u%% o!!) "ut a
strate'i( stri#e %i#e AP88 re@uires more so&histi(ated !undin' me(hanisms and
(oordination "etween the o&erationa% (e%% and su&&ort networ#s* Runnin' terrorist
trainin' (am&s a%so re@uires (a&ita%* 4art o! a% 9aeda.s su((ess has stemmed !rom its
a"i%it to raise (a&ita% !rom a variet o! sour(es) !undin' o&erations that have s&anned the
'%o"e ? !rom the 4hi%i&&ines to 0uro&e and the Ameri(as ? and stri#in' at =a&ostate>
re'imes* ;avin' a re(o'ni,ed) (harismati( %eader and a (entra% !inan(ia% (%earin'house
eases !undraisin' e!!orts (onsidera"% !or an (ause*
For this reason) i! !or no others) we e5&e(t that there eventua%% wou%d "e a
movement toward a (entra%i,ed) !orma% a% 9aeda (ommand ? and @uite &ossi"%) one
with a 'eo'ra&hi(a%% identi!ia"%e "ase o! o&erations* The &assin' o! "in Faden and a%-
Jawahiri inevita"% wi%% usher in a &eriod o! !%u5) whi(h mi'ht or mi'ht not "e reso%ved
within a !oreseea"%e time " the emer'en(e o! a%-Fi"i or another o! his (om&atriots* But)
in this %on'-term war o! ideo%o') a new %eader ? whether in this 'eneration or the ne5t
? in a%% %i#e%ihood wi%% emer'e*
A% 9aeda in 677B: The Continuin' 3evo%ution
5ec) 28, 2009
The theme o! STRATFOR.s 6776 !ore(ast !or a% 9aeda and the Dihadist movement
(entered on the evo%ution ? or the devo%ution) rea%% ? !rom a% 9aeda =the 'rou&> to a
"roader '%o"a% Dihadist movement* This essentia%% was a shi!t !rom an a% 9aeda
o&erationa% mode% "ased on an =a%%-star team> o! o&eratives that was se%e(ted) trained and
dis&at(hed " the (entra% %eadershi& to the tar'et) to an o&erationa% mode% that en(oura'es
inde&endent ='rassroots> Dihadists to (ondu(t atta(#s) or to a mode% in whi(h a% 9aeda
&rovides o&erationa% (ommanders who or'ani,e 'rassroots (e%%s* -e re!er to this shi!t as
devo%ution "e(ause what we are seein' now is essentia%% a return to the &re-AP88 mode%*
This shi!t has &rovided a% 9aeda =the movement> "roader 'eo'ra&hi( and
o&erationa% rea(h than a% 9aeda =the 'rou&*> This %ar'er) dis&ersed 'rou& o! a(tors)
however) %a(#s the o&erationa% de&th and e5&ertise o! the (ore 'rou& and its we%%-trained
terrorist (adre*
The metamor&hosis (ontinued in 6776) with a% 9aeda announ(in' the mer'er o!
e5istin' Dihadist 'rou&s su(h as 2amaah a%-1s%amiah H2A1I in 0'&t and A%'eria.s
Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at H2S4CI and others in the Ma'hre" into their
'%o"a% Dihadist um"re%%a or'ani,ation* These 'rou&s have had %on'-standin' %in#s to a%
9aeda) and the announ(ement o! the mer'ers is rea%% a !orma%i,ation o! the re%ationshi&)
thou'h these new nodes Doined a% 9aeda.s !orma% networ# o! a!!i%iate 'rou&s in 1ra@)
Saudi Ara"ia) the Sinai 4eninsu%a and A!'hanistan*
Sin(e the announ(ements) these new 'rou&s have not et demonstrated that the
&ossess the a"i%it to "oost a% 9aeda.s o&erationa% e!!e(tiveness* -e have seen no atta(#s
that (an "e attri"uted to 2A1) and &erha&s the on% atta(#s that (an "e attri"uted to the
2S4C are the 3e(* 88 atta(# a'ainst a "us (arrin' !orei'n oi% wor#ers and the
simu%taneous O(t* E7 atta(#s a'ainst two &o%i(e stations in A%'eria* 2iven this %a(# o!
resu%ts) the announ(ements rin' somewhat ho%%ow) as the mer'ers have not 'iven a%
9aeda the sur'e o! momentum it mi'ht have wanted*
The maDor atta(#s in 6776 in A"@ai@) Saudi Ara"iaK 3aha") 0'&tK 3u""a and
Mari") CemenK and 3amas(us) Sria) were a%% (ondu(ted " e5istin' re'iona% nodes and
not the main a% 9aeda or'ani,ation* These atta(#s did show a "road 'eo'ra&hi( rea(h
stret(hin' a(ross the Midd%e 0ast "ut) e5(e&t !or the 3aha" atta(#) the were essentia%%
a%% !ai%ures*
Overa%%) 6776 was not a 'ood ear !or the a% 9aeda nodes in Saudi Ara"ia and the
Sinai* 1t a%so was a disma% ear !or the 1ra@ a!!i%iate) whose (harismati( %eader A"u Musa"
a%-Jar@awi was #i%%ed in June* Twe%ve months have made a vast di!!eren(e in the !ortunes
o! the 1ra@ node* Fast ear at this time) a%-Jar@awi made the head%ines a%most dai% and
his or'ani,ation was (ondu(tin' !re@uent and s&e(ta(u%ar atta(#s* /ow) !o%%owin' the
death o! a%-Jar@awi) a% 9aeda in 1ra@ has "een %ar'e% mar'ina%i,ed and e(%i&sed " 1ra@i
Sunni and Shiite insur'ent 'rou&s*
2oin' into 677B) we anti(i&ate a (ontinuation o! this shi!t toward a movement ?
thou'h it wi%% "e im&ortant to wat(h !or an si'ns o! o&erationa% a(tivit " a% 9aeda the
'rou&) as o&&osed to its &rodi'ious &u"%i( re%ations e!!orts*

T,e %,)f+ +o %of+ Tar5e+s
As we noted in Januar) the shi!t to the "roader movement mode% a%%owed !or an
in(rease in the num"er o! atta(#s) a%thou'h the movement.s %a(# o! e5&ertise was !or(in'
it to !o(us its atta(#s a'ainst so!t tar'ets su(h as hote%s) trains and su"was* This shi!t
resu%ted in a %ar'er num"ers o! (asua%ties than the more s&e(ta(u%ar atta(#s a'ainst
hardened tar'ets* 1ndeed) the (asua%t (ount !rom Dihadist atta(#s in the 56 months
!o%%owin' AP88 was more than dou"%e that o! the 56 months &rior ? and those num"ers
wou%d "e vast% in(reased i! the deaths in 1ra@ and A!'hanistan were in(%uded*
;owever) not as man atta(#s o((urred in 6776 as we anti(i&ated* 1n !a(t) the
num"er o! atta(#s and the (asua%ties the 'enerated were down !or 6776* 1n man (ases)
su(h as 3amas(us) A"@ai@ and Cemen) the atta(#s resu%ted in the deaths o! more
atta(#ers than vi(tims) and the on% atta(# to &rodu(e a si,a"%e death to%% was in 3aha")
where 6: &eo&%e died* This trend in whi(h atta(#s a'ainst tourist tar'ets in 0'&t &rodu(e
the dead%iest Dihadist atta(# o! the ear (ontinued !rom 6775) when the atta(# in Sharm e%-
Shei#h) 0'&t) #i%%ed GG &eo&%e* H1n(identa%%) that not on% re&resents !ar more vi(tims
than in the 3aha" atta(#) "ut a%so more than a%% o! the 6776 atta(#s (om"ined*I -hen
Sharm e%-Shei#h is (om"ined with the 6775 atta(#s in Ba%i) Amman and Fondon) Dihadist
mi%itants &rodu(ed !ar more deaths in 6775 than in 6776* HThese statisti(s do not in(%ude
atta(#s (ondu(ted in war ,ones or areas o! insur'en( su(h as 1ra@) A!'hanistan)
1srae%P4a%estine) Che(hnaPRussia) Sri Fan#a or KashmirP1ndia*I
The on% Dihadist stri#e a'ainst a hardened tar'et in 6776 was the !ai%ed atta(#
a'ainst the +*S* 0m"ass in 3amas(us in Se&tem"er* A (ar "om"in' was dire(ted a'ainst
an em&%oee o! the +*S* Consu%ate in Kara(hi) 4a#istan) "ut that atta(# ha&&ened a "%o(#
awa !rom the hardened !a(i%it* 1t was) however) the on% one o! the two to &rodu(e an
Ameri(an death*
Tar5e+ %e+s
As we said in Januar) a% 9aeda the 'rou& has %on' "een interested in stri#in'
!inan(ia% tar'ets) air(ra!t and (hemi(a%P&etro%eum &%ants* Be(ause o! that) and a% 9aeda.s
demonstrated histor o! revisitin' tar'ets a!ter !ai%ed or !oi%ed atta(#s) it was %o'i(a% to
&roDe(t that it wou%d (ontinue to attem&t stri#es a'ainst su(h tar'ets in 6776*
The &etro%eum se(tor indeed was tar'eted in 6776) as the stri#es a'ainst &etro%eum
!a(i%ities in A"@ai@ and Cemen) and a'ainst oi% (ontra(tors in A%'iers) demonstrate*
A%thou'h no atta(# o((urred a'ainst !inan(ia% tar'ets as we anti(i&ated) we sti%% "e%ieve
that tar'et set remains at ris# !or the !uture) a%on' with the others*
A%thou'h authorities thwarted the &%ot to simu%taneous% destro severa% air%iners
en route !rom Fondon to the +nited States) it on(e a'ain demonstrated that a% 9aeda and
the Dihadist movement maintain a si'ni!i(ant interest in air%ine tar'ets* 3etai%s re%eased in
Fe"ruar on the Fi"rar Tower "om"in' &%ot &rovide another e5am&%e o! this !i5ation*
D)sru3+)o0 %+ra+e5- o0+)0ues
On(e a'ain in 6776 there has "een no su((ess!u% atta(# on +*S* soi% ? thou'h the
thwarted air%iner &%ot was de!inite% aimed at the +nited States* Fi#ewise) the anti(i&ated
atta(#s in 0uro&ean %o(ations su(h as the +nited Kin'dom) 3enmar#) Fran(e and 1ta%
!ai%ed to materia%i,e ? a'ain) not !or %a(# o! trin' on the &art o! the Dihadists*
The +*S* 'overnment and its a%%ies have "een su((ess!u% over the &ast ear in
disru&tin' terrorist &%ots and &%ans in man %o(ations* The strate' o! disru&tion these
(ountries are !o%%owin' is rea%% @uite sim&%e: 1t is "etter to &i(# u& an a% 9aeda sus&e(t
on immi'ration !raud or another %esser o!!ense than to investi'ate a smo#in' ho%e in the
'round* A%thou'h there has "een si'ni!i(ant s#e&ti(ism over the terrorist (redentia%s o!
those res&onsi"%e !or some o! these &%ots) su(h as the one invo%vin' the Miami Seven) the
&%ots serve as a reminder that there are &eo&%e who remain (ommitted to stri#in' the
+nited States* Over the ears) 1s%amist mi%itants have &roven to "e resi%ient and ada&ta"%e
in the !a(e o! adversit) and the wi%% (ertain% (ontinue to ada&t*
1t is im&ortant to remem"er that more than ei'ht ears e%a&sed "etween the 8AAE
-or%d Trade Center "om"in' and the AP88 atta(#s ? durin' whi(h time a% 9aeda and its
Dihadist networ# !a(ed nothin' a&&roa(hin' the %eve% o! &ressure the have endured sin(e
then* There were severa% thwarted terrorist s&e(ta(u%ars "etween 8AAE and 6778) and et
the Dihadists &ersisted and eventua%% su((eeded in (arrin' out a massive stri#e on +*S*
soi%*
There!ore) the strin' o! %aw en!or(ement and inte%%i'en(e su((esses sin(e AP88
does not ru%e out the &ossi"i%it o! another stri#e on +*S* soi% in time* -e "e%ieve the
%i#e%ihood o! su(h an atta(# wi%% in(rease as memories o! AP88 dim and the &u"%i( 'rows
wear o! the in(onvenien(e and !inan(ia% "urden o! in(reased se(urit measures*
T,e '),a()s+ 9:ar olle5e/
The !ore(ast) whi(h noted that the a(tive armed stru''%es in 1ra@) A!'hanistan and
the Cau(asus sti%% serve as a #ind o! =Dihadist war (o%%e'e)> &redi(ted that its 'raduates
wou%d (ontinue to share their trainin' and e5&erien(e u&on returnin' to their (ountries o!
ori'in*
-e a%read have seen a trans!er o! terrorism ta(ti(s and te(hno%o' to
A!'hanistan) and we anti(i&ate that this wi%% (ontinue in the !uture* 1n addition) the
inter&ersona% (onne(tions that the mi%itants ma#e in &%a(es su(h as 1ra@ and Che(hna
a%so wi%% %in# them to the '%o"a% movement in the same wa the Dihad in A!'hanistan did
!or the &re(edin' 'eneration*
The 9uiet Cam&ai'n A'ainst a% 9aedaMs Fo(a% /odes
6une 20, 2007
1ndonesian authorities announ(ed June 85 the had arrested Jar#asih) the a(tin'
head o! Jemaah 1s%amiah HJ1I) an a% 9aeda-%in#ed mi%itant 'rou& that has (ondu(ted
severa% maDor atta(#s in 1ndonesia* Jar#asih) who su((eeded A"u Ba#ar Bashir and A"u
Rusdan as J1 %eader) was (a&tured June A in the same o&eration that netted another to& J1
%eader) A"u 3uDana) an o&erative trained " a% 9aeda in A!'hanistan who headed the
'rou&.s mi%itar win'*
The (a&ture o! these two maDor !i'ures a%one wou%d "e a si'ni!i(ant "%ow to J1*
;owever) when the are (om"ined with the stead stream o! other J1 %eaders who have
"een #i%%ed or (a&tured sin(e J1 (arried out its most devastatin' atta(# ? the O(to"er
6776 "om"in's in Ba%i that #i%%ed more than 677 &eo&%e ? the im&a(t "e(omes even
more si'ni!i(ant* 1n other words) !ew o! the %eaders remain who dire(ted J1 u& to and
in(%udin' the 6776 atta(#s*
The 1ndonesian 'overnment.s (am&ai'n a'ainst J1) &art o! the '%o"a% =war on
terrorism)> has "een "o%stered " assistan(e !rom the +nited States) Austra%ia and other
-estern nations* Moreover) the !i'ht a'ainst J1 is not (on!ined to 1ndonesia itse%!) "ut is a
re'iona% e!!ort invo%vin' other 'overnments in Southeast Asia* These e!!orts have #e&t J1
o!! "a%an(e and una"%e to %aun(h a maDor atta(# sin(e the O(to"er 6775 sui(ide "om"in's
in Ba%i* The 1ndonesian 'overnment a%so has "een a"%e to sei,e %ar'e @uantities o!
wea&ons and e5&%osives ? ordnan(e that no %on'er (an "e used in terrorist atta(#s*
The su((ess a'ainst J1 unders(ores one im&ortant !a(t: A%thou'h mu(h o! the
wor%d.s attention re'ardin' the war on terrorism ? whi(h rea%% is a war a'ainst Dihadists
? has "een !o(used on 1ra@ and to a %esser e5tent A!'hanistan) a @uiet and @uite
su((ess!u% (am&ai'n is "ein' wa'ed a'ainst the %o(a% nodes) those re'iona% or nationa%
mi%itant 'rou&s su&&ortin' a% 9aeda in &%a(es %i#e 1ndonesia) Saudi Ara"ia) 0'&t and
/orth A!ri(a* The war on Dihadism) however) is at its heart an ideo%o'i(a% warK and as
%on' as the ideo%o' o! Dihadism survives) these re'iona% nodes ? and a% 9aeda itse%! ?
(annot "e eradi(ated*
T,e Local No(es
A% 9aeda.s %eaders have a%was #nown that a% 9aeda) as an or'ani,ation) %a(#s the
stren'th to a(hieve its 'oa%s o! endin' in!ide% in!%uen(e in Mus%im %ands and
overthrowin' the =(orru&t> re'imes ru%in' them* Be(ause o! this) a% 9aeda has viewed
itse%! as a =van'uard or'ani,ation> and) as su(h) aims to serve as an e5am&%e !or the
%ar'er Mus%im (ommunit Hor ummahI to !o%%ow and to (onvin(e the ummah to Doin the
Dihad Hor rather) its de!inition o! itI* A% 9aeda.s ho&e is that its e5am&%e wi%% %ead to a
'%o"a% u&risin' amon' the ummah and that this =awa#ened> (ommunit wi%% wie%d the
!or(e ne(essar to a(hieve Dihadist o"De(tives*
This (onte5t he%&s to e5&%ain the re%ationshi&s a% 9aeda.s %eaders have !ostered
with %o(a% 'rou&s in su(h &%a(es as 1ndonesia) A!'hanistan) A%'eria and 1ra@* The
"e%ieve these %o(a% or re'iona% or'ani,ations are im&ortant &artners that &rovide a "rid'e
!or the trans!er o! their ideo%o' to the ummah in the various re'ions where the o&erate*
Man) indeed most) o! the thousands o! !i'hters a% 9aeda has trained over the ears in
(am&s in Sudan) A!'hanistan) 4a#istan and e%sewhere were not a% 9aeda mem"ers &er se)
"ut rather men %i#e 3uDana who wou%d return home and Doin re'iona% 'rou&s %i#e J1) or
others who wou%d 'o "a(# and !orm 'rassroots (e%%s) %i#e Mohammed Siddi@ue Khan)
who esta"%ished the (e%% that (ondu(ted the Ju% B) 6775) Fondon "om"in's*
A% 9aeda.s attention to %o(a% Dihadist 'rou&s) there!ore) (%ear% is not the resu%t o!
the 'rou&.s di!!i(u%ties !o%%owin' the +*S* invasion o! A!'hanistan* 1n !a(t) a% 9aeda
%eader Osama "in Faden has a%was &%a(ed em&hasis on wor#in' with these 'rou&s* For
e5am&%e) in Fe"ruar 8AAG) when "in Faden announ(ed the !ormation o! what he (a%%ed
the =-or%d 1s%ami( Front)> the or'ani,ation.s !atwa (a%%in' !or =Dihad a'ainst Jews and
(rusaders> was a%so si'ned " Aman a%-Jawahiri) who at the time %ed a !a(tion o! the
0'&tian 1s%ami( Jihad H01JI 'rou&K Ri!ai Ahmad Taha) %eader o! his !a(tion o! the
0'&tian 2amaah a%-1s%amiah H2A1IK Sha#h Mir ;am,ah) se(retar o! his !a(tion o!
the Jamiat-u%-+%ema-e-4a#istanK and Fa,%u% Rahman) %eader o! the Jihad Movement in
Ban'%adesh*
A%-Jawahiri.s 01J was one o! the !irst o! these re'iona% or %o(a% 'rou&s to
o!!i(ia%% Doin !or(es with "in Faden and a% 9aeda) thou'h when that union too# &%a(e)
01J had s&%intered and its new mi%itant win' had su!!ered maDor set"a(#s* The mi%itant
!a(tion under a%-Jawahiri not on% had "een %ar'e% de(imated inside 0'&t) "ut +*S*-%ed
o&erations a%so had resu%ted in the (a&ture or death o! man o! its senior o&eratives
outside o! 0'&t in %o(ations su(h as A%"ania and Kuwait*
A%thou'h man o! these %o(a% 'rou&s re(eived trainin' !rom a% 9aeda and wor#ed
(%ose% with it) !or the most &art the maintained their inde&enden(e* 3urin' the 8AA7s)
!or e5am&%e) 2A1 mem"ers were trained at a% 9aeda !a(i%ities in Sudan and A!'hanistan)
and some) in(%udin' 2A1 %eader Musta!a ;am,a) even wor#ed !or "usinesses "in Faden
owned in Sudan* Furthermore) "in Faden and a% 9aeda he%&ed or'ani,e and !und 2A1
and 01J.s (oo&erative attem&t to assassinate 0'&tian 4resident ;osni Mu"ara# in Addis
A"a"a in 8AA5*
-hen 2A1 !ra(tured in the %ate 8AA7s and the "u%# o! the 'rou& denoun(ed
vio%en(e and Dihadism) Taha) the mi%itant !a(tion.s %eader) maintained (%ose re%ations with
a% 9aeda* ;e even a&&eared a%on'side "in Faden and a%-Jawahiri in a Se&tem"er 6777
video (a%%in' !or the re%ease o! 2A1 s&iritua% %eader Shei#h Omar A"de%-Rahman) who
was Hand isI in a +*S* &rison* A"de%-Rahman was (onvi(ted in O(to"er 8AA5 on (har'es
o! seditious (ons&ira( !or) amon' other thin's) issuin' a ver"a% !atwa that (ondoned a
&%an to atta(# severa% tar'ets in /ew Cor#) sain' the &%an was &ermissi"%e under 1s%am*
;owever) in s&ite o! the (%ose re%ationshi&) 2A1.s mi%itant !a(tion did not announ(e its
mer'er with a% 9aeda unti% Au'ust 6776*
T,e "us, +o 'o)0 +,e arava0
Thou'h the AP88 atta(#s did not s&ar# the wides&read u&risin' o! the ummah a%
9aeda was ho&in' !or) the s&e(ta(u%ar su((ess o! the atta(#s made "in Faden a househo%d
name and vau%ted a% 9aeda into the media s&ot%i'ht* 3es&ite the Ta%i"an.s @ui(# de!eat in
A!'hanistan) whi(h resu%ted in the s(atterin' o! a% 9aeda and the re%o(ation o! its
%eadershi& to 4a#istan.s /orth--est Frontier 4rovin(e) a% 9aeda (ontinued to "e
&er(eived as the a&e5 o! the Dihadist movement in the -estern media and) &erha&s more
im&ortant) on the streets o! the Mus%im wor%d*
Fo%%owin' the a''ressive a(tion o! the +*S* 'overnment and its a%%ies a'ainst
Dihadist 'rou&s in the wa#e o! the AP88 atta(#s) man &eo&%e who &revious% &raised "in
Faden and a% 9aeda renoun(ed the 'rou&.s ta(ti(s) in(%udin' 2A1 %eader ;am,a*
;owever) in O(to"er 677:) the %eader o! a %itt%e-#nown Dihadist 'rou& in 1ra@) Jamaat a%-
Tawhid and Jihad HMonotheism and JihadI) (han'ed the name o! his 'rou& to Tandheem
a% 9aeda !i Bi%ad a%-Ra!idain Ha% 9aeda Or'ani,ation in the Fand o! the Two RiversI and
swore a%%e'ian(e to "in Faden* 1n a 3e(em"er 677: statement) "in Faden (on!irmed this
a%%ian(e) re!errin' to the %eader o! that 'rou&) A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi) as the =%eader o! a%
9aeda in 1ra@*>
This move " a%-Jar@awi was hu'e% su((ess!u%* B asso(iatin' his networ# with
a% 9aeda) a%-Jar@awi made it &rominent amon' the man Dihadist and nationa%ist
insur'ent 'rou&s o&eratin' in 1ra@ ? and @ui(#% a(hieved name-"rand re(o'nition* This
re(o'nition ra&id% trans%ated into an in!%u5 o! !i'hters) "oth !orei'n and 1ra@i) !or the
'rou& and a mu(h-needed in!usion o! (a&ita%* 1n !a(t) a%-Jar@awi.s or'ani,ation was so
!%ush with (ash that in a Ju% 6775 %etter) a%-Jawahiri as#s a%-Jar@awi to send !inan(ia%
assistan(e*
-ithin a short &eriod o! time) a%-Jar@awi.s 'rou& "e(ame one o! the &re-eminent
mi%itant 'rou&s in 1ra@* A%-Jar@awi himse%! "e(ame a househo%d name sin(e his 'rou&
&osted !re@uent statements and videos o! its o&erations a'ainst (oa%ition and 1ra@i !or(es
on the 1nternet* 1n some was) a%-Jar@awi had even sur&assed "in Faden in terms o!
media (overa'e and notoriet*
Thou'h a%-Jar@awi.s meteori( rise was (ut short " his death in a June 6776
airstri#e) the su((ess he enDoed " ado&tin' the a% 9aeda "rand was not missed " other
interested o"servers* 1n Au'ust 6776) the mi%itant win' o! the 0'&tian 2A1 re%eased a
video announ(in' it had !orma%% Doined a% 9aeda* Three months %ater) A%'eria.s Sa%a!ist
2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at H2S4CI announ(ed that it was !ormin' a uni!ied
(ommand with Moro((o.s 1s%ami( Com"atant 2rou&) Fi"a.s 1s%ami( Fi'htin' 2rou& and
severa% Tunisian 'rou&s* The new 'rou& was to "e (a%%ed the a% 9aeda Or'ani,ation !or
the Countries o! the Ara" Ma'hre"*
Kashmiri 1s%amist mi%itant 'rou&s a%so are now attem&tin' to Dum& on this
"andwa'on) as demonstrated " the =3e(%aration o! -ar a'ainst 1ndia> the issued in the
name o! a% 9aeda ear%ier in June*
%+a+us of +,e No(es
To date) none o! these newer %o(a% nodes has rea%i,ed the same %eve% o! su((ess
that a%-Jar@awi.s 'rou& did* The 0'&tian node has (arried out no su((ess!u% atta(#s
sin(e its hi'h% &u"%i(i,ed announ(ement* The Moro((an e%ement o! the new Ma'hre" a%
9aeda node a&&arent% attem&ted to 'o o&erationa% in Mar(h and A&ri% "ut its &oor ta(ti(s
and inade@uate &%annin' resu%ted in the death o! more sui(ide "om"ers than tar'ets*
4erha&s the most su((ess!u% o! these new 'rou&s is the A%'erian e%ement o! the
Ma'hre" a% 9aeda node) the !ormer 2S4C* The A%'erian 'rou& has (ondu(ted severa%
atta(#s) in(%udin' an A&ri% 88 dou"%e sui(ide atta(# invo%vin' vehi(%e-"orne im&rovised
e5&%osive devi(es* Those "om"s stru(# the &rime minister.s o!!i(e and a &o%i(e station in
A%'iers* The A%'erian 'overnment) however) has (ra(#ed down on the 'rou& and its
su&&orters sin(e those atta(#s*
1n man was) the A%'erian 'rou& seems to "e !o%%owin' a traDe(tor &revious%
seen e%sewhere) in whi(h a %o(a% node emer'es) (ondu(ts some su((ess!u% atta(#s and
then is hit hard " %o(a% authorities Ho!ten with assistan(e !rom +*S* inte%%i'en(e and %aw
en!or(ement a'en(ies*I This is essentia%% what has ha&&ened to some o! the o%der nodes)
su(h as J1 in 1ndonesia) 0'&t.s Tawhid wa a%-Jihad in Sinai) and the Saudi a% 9aeda
node* There were si'ns in Januar o! a &ossi"%e reviva% o! the Saudi node) "ut other than a
sim&%e shootin' atta(# in %ate Fe"ruar ? !o%%owed " a maDor hit a'ainst the 'rou& "
Saudi authorities ? the node has "een @uiet*
0ven a%-Jar@awi.s node) whi(h undertoo# severa% o&erations in Jordan "e!ore his
death) in(%udin' the /ovem"er 6775 Amman hote% "om"in's) has "een una"%e to &roDe(t
its &ower outside o! 1ra@ as o! %ate* This node a%so has "een re(eivin' &ressure !rom
e%ements in 1ra@ and has started to !i'ht 1ra@i nationa%ists* 1! a &o%iti(a% sett%ement is
rea(hed "etween the +nited States and 1ran re'ardin' 1ra@) this node (ou%d @ui(#% !ind
itse%! unwe%(ome in 1ra@ ? and even more em"att%ed*
T,e Fu+ure
2iven that most o! the a% 9aeda %o(a% nodes (urrent% are doin' &oor%) and those
that are doin' !air% we%% now are %oo#in' at &ossi"%e "%ea# !utures) does that mean the
&ose no threat< A"so%ute% not*
Thou'h the (am&ai'n to disru&t the %o(a% nodes ? the war a'ainst Dihadism ?
has "een ver su((ess!u%) it is im&ortant to remem"er that this is not so mu(h a war
a'ainst a 'rou& o! individua%s as it is a war a'ainst an ideo%o'* The &ro"%em is)
ideo%o'ies are harder to #i%% than &eo&%e* Consider) !or e5am&%e) how the revo%utionar
ideas o! Kar% Mar5) N%adimir Fenin and Che 2uevara have out%ived the men themse%ves*
1n the same wa) the a% 9aeda ideo%o' wi%% out%ast "in Faden) as the (a%% to Dihad
out%asted "in Faden.s !riend and mentor) A"du%%ah A,,am* So even i! "in Faden were to
"e e%iminated ne5t wee#) the stru''%e wou%d (ontinue* The nodes ma "e disor'ani,ed
and their o&erations disru&ted) "ut as %on' as the (an re(ruit new !i'hters and raise
mone) the wi%% retain the a"i%it to reor'ani,e and (arr out atta(#s* The #e there!ore
wi%% "e in underminin' the ideo%o' o! Dihadism and there" (uttin' into the Dihadist
re(ruitin' &oo% and drin' u& its !undraisin' o&erations*
The &ro"%em !or the +nited States is that it (annot !i'ht this ideo%o'i(a% war) and
an e!!orts it o&en% su&&orts ? in(%udin' the Ara"i( te%evision station A% ;urra ? are
@ui(#% tainted and dis(redited* The +*S* 'overnment) there!ore) must sit on the side%ines
whi%e moderate Mus%im s(ho%ars re!ute the theo%o' o! Dihadism* Meanwhi%e) -ashin'ton
(an on% ho&e the messa'e 'ets throu'h*
2unnin' !or A% 9aeda 4rime
6une 27, 2007
A% 9aeda.s media "ran(h) As-Saha") re%eased a statement " Aman a%-Jawahiri
to Dihadist 1nternet !orums June 65* 1n it) a% 9aeda.s de&ut %eader ur'es Mus%ims to
su&&ort 4a%estinian mi%itants " &rovidin' wea&ons and mone) and " atta(#in' +*S* and
1srae%i interests* A%thou'h a%-Jawahiri.s messa'e is interestin') es&e(ia%% the !a(t that he
ur'es su&&ort !or an or'ani,ation he has (riti(i,ed heavi% in the &ast) &erha&s most
te%%in' a"out the re%ease is that it (ontains no new video !oota'e o! a%-Jawahiri himse%!*
1n the 65-minute statement) a%-Jawahiri dis(usses the im&ortan(e o! a%-9uds
HJerusa%emI to Mus%ims) and ur'es Mus%ims to unite with the =muDahideen in 4a%estine>
H;amas) 4a%estinian 1s%ami( Jihad) et(*I* A%-Jawahiri a%so (a%%s on ;amas to esta"%ish a
'overnment "ased on 1s%ami( %aw in 2a,a) notin' that) =Ta#in' over &ower is not a 'oa%)
"ut a means to im&%ement 2od.s word on earth*> The re%ease "e'ins with a sni&&et o! an
O(to"er 6778 video o! a%-Jawahiri and Osama "in Faden) "ut the "u%# o! the re%ease
(onsists o! a sti%% &hoto'ra&h o! a%-Jawahiri &%a(ed over a thin "anner (ontainin' a sma%%
&hoto o! the a%-A@sa Mos@ue*
The !a(t that a%-Jawahiri (hose this !ormat rather than the more en'a'in' and
visua%% &ower!u% video !ormat su''ests a% 9aeda.s a&e5 %eaders are !ee%in' the heat o!
the (am&ai'n to %o(ate and e%iminate them* A%thou'h man &eo&%e "e%ieve the a% 9aeda
%eadershi& o&erates as it &%eases a%on' the 4a#istani-A!'han "order) eviden(e su''ests
otherwise*
Qua0+)f-)05 +,e a.3a)50
Fast wee#.s Terrorism 1nte%%i'en(e Re&ort dis(ussed the (am&ai'n (ondu(ted "
the +nited States and its a%%ies a'ainst a% 9aeda.s re'iona% and %o(a% nodes* Thou'h these
e!!orts have "een under wa in man &arts o! the '%o"e) the +nited States and its &artners
have "een &ursuin' a (on(urrent (am&ai'n a'ainst a% 9aeda.s a&e5 %eadershi&) a% 9aeda
&rime* Fi#e the (am&ai'n a'ainst the re'iona% nodes) the e!!ort a'ainst the &rime node
em&%os a%% o! the !ive &ron's o! the +*S* (ounterterrorism arsena%: mi%itar &ower)
inte%%i'en(e) e(onomi( san(tions) %aw en!or(ement o&erations and di&%oma(*
The overa%% su((ess o! this (am&ai'n a'ainst a% 9aeda &rime has "een hard to
measure "e(ause there are !ew "arometers !or ta#in' a% 9aeda.s &u%se* B its nature it is a
se(retive and ne"u%ous or'ani,ation that) in order to survive) has ta#en 'reat &ains to
o"s(ure its o&erations ? es&e(ia%% sin(e the invasion o! A!'hanistan in 6778 that
!%ushed its %eaders !rom their (om!orta"%e and we%%-a&&ointed re!u'e inside the Ta%i"an.s
1s%ami( re&u"%i(*
-hi%e "in Faden and a%-Jawahiri have es(a&ed +*S*-%ed e!!orts to %o(ate them) a
%ar'e num"er o! se(ond-tier %eaders and o&eratives have "een (a&tured or #i%%ed* This
means the 'rou&.s or'ani,ationa% (hart has "een a%tered dramati(a%% "e%ow the to& run')
ma#in' it di!!i(u%t to determine the @ua%it o! the individua%s who have "een ta&&ed to !i%%
in the 'a&s* 4u"%i(%) a% 9aeda has a&&ointed A,,am the Ameri(an as a maDor s&o#esman*
1! the &rime node has "een !or(ed to &romote others o! his (a%i"er to o&erationa%
%eadershi& &ositions) the 'rou& (ou%d "e in "i' trou"%e* ;owever) with so man un#nown
&%aers !i%%in' (riti(a% &ositions) it is di!!i(u%t to determine &re(ise% how mu(h the
attrition has a!!e(ted the &rime node.s a"i%it to &%an and e5e(ute atta(#s*
Ane(dota% eviden(e) however) su''ests that their o&erationa% a"i%it has "een
diminished* The 'rou& has not %aun(hed an atta(# usin' an a% 9aeda =a%%-star team> sin(e
AP88* Meanwhi%e) outside o! 1ra@ and A!'hanistan) the atta(#s (ondu(ted " its re'iona%
nodes) or " re'iona% nodes wor#in' with o&erationa% (ommanders sent !rom a% 9aeda
&rime) have de(reased in !re@uen( and im&a(t over the &ast severa% months* The !irst si5
months o! 677B have "een @uieter than the !irst si5 months o! 6776 and !ar more &ea(e!u%
that the %ast si5 months o! 6775* And) not to down&%a the %oss o! %i!e in Fondon) Madrid)
Ba%i and other &%a(es) "ut in terms o! num"ers) the death to%%s and !inan(ia% im&a(ts o! a%%
those atta(#s do not ho%d a (and%e to the AP88 atta(#s ? even when man o! them are
(om"ined*
Beond the &ersonne% %osses a% 9aeda has su!!ered) the %oss o! its dedi(ated
trainin' !a(i%ities in A!'hanistan a%so has (han'ed the wa the &rime node wor#s* 1t is
%ess autonomous and !ar more de&endent on the %ar'esse o! 4a#istani and A!'han !euda%
%ords who (ontro% trainin' (am&s a%on' the "order ? and who are #e to the se(urit o!
a% 9aeda &rime* ;owever) it is sti%% di!!i(u%t to &in&oint the im&a(t this has had on a%
9aeda.s a"i%it to o&erate*
O((asiona% '%im&ses into the or'ani,ation made &ossi"%e " inte%%i'en(e e!!orts)
however) have &rovided some in!ormation as to its hea%th* For e5am&%e) the sei,ed Ju%
6775 %etter !rom a%-Jawahiri to then-a% 9aeda in 1ra@ %eader A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi) in
whi(h a%-Jawahiri as#s !or !inan(ia% assistan(e) demonstrates that a% 9aeda.s &rime node
was hurtin' !or (ash at the time* This state o! a!!airs) a #e o"De(tive o! +*S* e(onomi(
san(tions) %i#e% was e5a(er"ated " the Saudi 'overnment.s a(tion a'ainst a% 9aeda
su&&orters inside the #in'dom) a(tion &rom&ted " atta(#s " a% 9aeda.s Saudi node*
Another wa to 'au'e the hea%th o! the or'ani,ation) or at %east the (om!ort %eve%
o! the 'rou&.s a&e5 %eadershi&) is " %oo#in' at its &u"%i( re%ations e!!orts and the
statements it re%eases to the &u"%i(* A% 9aeda &rime has &rodu(ed a stead su&&% o!
messa'es in order to #ee& %o(a% nodes ? and &erha&s more im&ortant) 'rassroots Dihadists
around the wor%d ? motivated* These re%eases) however) revea% a (han'e over the %ast
severa% months in the wa a% 9aeda (ommuni(ates to the wor%d*
As the num"ers in the (hart i%%ustrate) the num"er o! messa'es !rom a% 9aeda.s
two to& %eaders has !a%%en) whi%e the use o! video has dro&&ed dramati(a%%* Be!ore the
O(to"er 6776 missi%e atta(# in Chin'ai) 4a#istan) 8: out o! 85 messa'es were re%eased in
video !ormatK sin(e then) on% three o! the nine have in(%uded video* The swit(h to an
audio !ormat indi(ates (on(ern a"out o&erationa% se(urit* 1t a%so is noteworth that "in
Faden has not "een heard !rom in an !ormat) audio or video) sin(e Ju% 8) 6776 ?
near% a ear now* A%% these !a(tors (onsidered) it is a&&arent that the a&e5 %eadershi&
!ee%s threatened*
T,e a.3a)50 o0 +,e Bor(er
A% 9aeda %eaders hidin' a%on' the A!'han-4a#istani "order have 'ood reason to
"e (autious* On June 8A) an e5&%osion #i%%ed at %east E6 mi%itants in 4a#istan.s
mountainous 3atta Khe% distri(t* 4a#istani inte%%i'en(e o!!i(ia%s said 87 to 85 Ara" and
Tur#men mi%itants were amon' the dead* A((ordin' to sour(es) A"u Faith a%-Fi"i) a%
9aeda !ie%d (ommander in A!'hanistan) was the tar'et* 3/A tests re&orted% are "ein'
&er!ormed on the vi(tims. remains in an e!!ort to determine whether a%-Fi"i is amon'
them* 1! in !a(t he was #i%%ed in the stri#e) histor su''ests a% 9aeda wi%% re%ease a
statement (on!irmin' the death "etween June 6A and Ju% 6*
The 3atta Khe% stri#e hi'h%i'hts the 'ravit o! the threat !a(ed " a% 9aeda
%eaders hidin' out in the area a%on' the "order !or the &ast severa% ears* Other nota"%e
stri#es in(%ude:
Jan* 86) 677B: 4a#istani Arm Aviation units %aun(h a &redawn airstri#e a'ainst a
sus&e(ted mi%itant (am& near Jam,o%a in 4a#istan.s South -a,iristan) #i%%in' 65
to E7 mi%itants) in(%udin' ei'ht to 87 !orei'ners*
O(t* E7) 6776: A missi%e stri#e a'ainst an 1s%ami( s(hoo% in Chin'ai) 4a#istan)
near the A!'han "order) %eve%s the "ui%din' and #i%%s at %east G7 &eo&%e* Sour(es
sa a%-Jawahiri was the tar'et*
Jan* 8E) 6776: A he%%!ire missi%e hits a home in 3amado%a) 4a#istan) #i%%in' 8G
&eo&%e) in(%udin' !our senior a% 9aeda o&eratives* The atta(#.s intended tar'et) a%-
Jawahiri) is not &resent*
3e(* :) 6775: 4a#istani authorities sa ;am,a Ra"ia) re&orted% a% 9aeda.s
dire(tor o! o&erations) is #i%%ed when a he%%!ire missi%e !ired !rom a &redator drone
stri#es a house in ;aisori) /orth -a,iristan*
Ma B) 6775: ;aitham a%-Cemeni) an a% 9aeda o&erative who re&orted% re&%a(ed
A"u FarD a%-Fi"i in a% 9aeda.s hierar(h a!ter a%-Fi"i.s Ma 6) 6775) (a&ture) is
#i%%ed in a he%%!ire missi%e atta(# in /orth -a,iristan*

-hi%e not in the same re'ion) a% 9aeda.s then-mi%itar (hie! Mohammed Ate! a%so
was #i%%ed in a he%%!ire missi%e stri#e " a C1A &redator drone in eastern
A!'hanistan in /ovem"er 6778*

4redator drones (annot "e seen or heard " those on the 'round* This means that a
tar'et.s !irst indi(ation that he is "ein' atta(#ed is the arriva% o! one or more su&ersoni()
hi'h% a((urate and ver destru(tive he%%!ire missi%es* To those "ein' tar'eted) the
&s(ho%o'i(a% im&a(t o! a wea&on that (an #i%% without warnin' is intense*
T,e %afe Be+
Short% a!ter the Chin'ai stri#e we noted a di!!eren(e "etween a%-Jawahiri.s
rea(tion to that stri#e and the 3amado%a stri#e* At the time) we said the Chin'ai stri#e hit
ver (%ose to home) sent sho(#waves throu'h a% 9aeda.s o&erationa% se(urit sstem and
%i#e% !or(ed a%-Jawahiri to 'o dee&er under'round* The num"ers a"ove a&&ear to
(on!irm that ana%sis*
-e a%so s&e(u%ated that the 3amado%a and Chin'ai stri#es dama'ed As-Saha".s
(a&a"i%ities* One o! those #i%%ed in the 3amado%a stri#e) A"du% a%-Ma'hri"i) not on% was
a%-Jawahiri.s son-in-%aw) "ut a%so a senior As-Saha" mana'er* 3es&ite these stri#es)
however) As-Saha" has re%eased at %east 8E video statements " a% 9aeda %eaders sin(e the
Chin'ai atta(#* On% three o! these videos !eatured a%-JawahiriK the other 87 !eatured a%
9aeda s&o#esmen su(h as A"u Caha a%-Fi"i) A,,am the Ameri(an and the now &ossi"%
de(eased A"u Faith a%-Fi"i* As-Saha" a%so has re%eased severa% other videos showin'
o&erations under wa a'ainst +*S* !or(es in A!'hanistan*
Re'ard%ess o! these videos !rom A!'hanistan) thin's have not "een 'oin' we%% !or
the Ta%i"an and their a% 9aeda a%%ies re(ent%* Their mu(h-touted s&rin' o!!ensive has
%ar'e% !i,,%ed and the have su!!ered man (asua%ties on the "att%e!ie%d a'ainst /ATO
!or(es in the south Hthe Canadians a&&ear to have (om&%eted their %earnin' (urveI* The
%oss o! (harismati() e5&erien(ed "att%e!ie%d (ommander Mu%%ah 3adu%%ah a%so wi%% have
an im&a(t* Meanwhi%e) the Ta%i"an have "ro#en !rom traditiona% insur'ent ta(ti(s with
su(h thin's as sui(ide "om"in's) roadside "om"in's and atta(#s with vehi(%e-"orne
im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es* This deviation su''ests des&eration on their &art ? whi(h
a%so wou%d in(rease a% 9aeda.s an'st*
2iven that As-Saha" (ontinues to re%ease severa% videos ea(h month) the %a(# o!
a&&earan(es " a%-Jawahiri) and even "in Faden) is not the resu%t o! some s(ar(it o!
(amera 'ear or video te(hni(ians* 1ndeed) there must "e some other (om&e%%in' reason !or
them to (han'e their "ehavior ? and !ear that the !or(es huntin' them are drawin' (%ose
is a sa!e "et*
-ith a%% the ta%# a"out a% 9aeda =%eaders)> a% 9aeda =!a(tions> and mi%itants with
=%in#s> to a% 9aeda) it is use!u% to ta#e a ste& "a(# and (%ari! &re(ise% what a% 9aeda
a(tua%% is* A% 9aeda is a sma%% (ore 'rou& o! &eo&%e who share strate'i( and o&erationa%
(hara(teristi(s that set them a&art !rom a%% other mi%itants ? 1s%amist or otherwise ? the
wor%d over* A%% si'ns indi(ate this 'rou& is no %on'er !un(tiona% and (annot "e re&%i(ated*
-hether or not Osama "in Faden is sti%% a%ive) a% 9aeda as it on(e was is dead*
Strate'i(a%%) these men envisioned a wor%d in whi(h the (a%i&hate wou%d rise
anew as a (onse@uen(e o! events the wou%d set into motion* The (hie! o"sta(%e to this
'oa% was not the +nited States "ut the &ano&% o! se(u%ar) (orru&t 'overnments o! the
Midd%e 0ast* A% 9aeda #new its %imited num"ers &re(%uded it !rom de!eatin' these
'overnments) so it sou'ht to &rovo#e the Mus%im masses into overthrowin' them* A%
9aeda a%so #new it %a(#ed the stren'th to do this &rovo#in' " itse%! so it sou'ht to tri(#
someone more &ower!u% into doin' it*
B a% 9aeda.s %o'i() an atta(# o! su!!i(ient !or(e a'ainst the Ameri(ans wou%d %ure
the +nited States to s%am sidewas into the Midd%e 0ast on a mission o! reven'e) %eadin'
to dire(t and dee& +*S* (o%%a"oration with those same se(u%ar) (orru&t %o(a% 'overnments*
A% 9aeda.s ho&e was that su(h (o%%a"oration with the Ameri(ans wou%d %ead to outra'e
? and outra'e wou%d %ead to revo%ution* /ote that the AP88 atta(#s were not a% 9aeda.s
!irst attem&t to %i'ht this !%ame* The 8AAG +*S* 0m"ass "om"in's and the 6777 +SS
Co%e "om"in' were a%so the wor# o! this same a% 9aeda (e%%) "ut the atta(#s %a(#ed the
stren'th to tri''er what a% 9aeda thou'ht o! as a su!!i(ient +*S* res&onse*
T,e "eal D)ffere0ce

But a% 9aeda is hard% the !irst mi%itant 'rou& to thin# "i'* -hat rea%% set a%
9aeda a&art was its se(ond (hara(teristi( ? its a"i%it to evade dete(tion* That a"i%it
was &art and &ar(e% o! the wa in whi(h a% 9aeda !ormed* A% 9aeda.s roots are not
mere% within the various mi%itant 'rou&s o! the Ara" Midd%e 0ast "ut dee& within the
'eo&o%iti(a% stru''%es o! the Co%d -ar* Man o! the muDahideen who re%o(ated to
A!'hanistan to resist the Soviet invasion !ound themse%ves re(ruited and !unded " Saudi
inte%%i'en(e) e@ui&&ed and tas#ed " +*S* inte%%i'en(e and mana'ed and or'ani,ed "
4a#istani inte%%i'en(e*
This e5&osure not on% %evera'ed the A!'han resistan(e.s &arami%itar (a&a"i%ities
"ut a%so 'ave the muDahideen a dee& a&&re(iation !or) and understandin' o!) the stren'ths
and wea#nesses o! the +*S* and Soviet inte%%i'en(e sstems* -hen the Co%d -ar ended)
some o! those muDahideen re(onstituted their e!!orts into what (ame to "e #nown as a%
9aeda) and those dee& understandin's "e(ame &art o! the or'ani,ation.s "edro(#*
Su(h #now%ed'e ena"%es a% 9aeda to o&erate "eneath the radar o! near% a%%
inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies* 1t #nows how those a'en(ies (o%%e(t and ana%,e inte%%i'en(e)
where the "%ind s&ots are and) most im&ortant) how %on' it ta#es !or an a'en( to turn raw
in!ormation into a(tiona"%e inte%%i'en(e*
This (hara(teristi( is a% 9aeda.s 'reatest asset* A% 9aeda.s standards o! o&eration
assume that inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies are a%was waitin' and wat(hin') and on% a% 9aeda.s
understandin' o! those o&erations #ee&s the ="ase> !rom "ein' "usted* O&erationa%
se(urit ? not o&erationa% su((ess ? is a% 9aeda.s &aramount (on(ernK its atta(#s are
meti(u%ous% &%anned) !antasti( in s(o&e and sa(ri!i(ed in a heart"eat i! the %eadershi&
sus&e(ts a "rea(h in se(urit* This ma#es a% 9aeda near% im&ossi"%e to tra(#*
1t a%so means that a% 9aeda) " ne(essit) is a ver sma%%) (%ose-#nit 'rou&* The
or'ani,ation.s (ore ? or the a&e5 %eadershi&) as we o!ten (a%% it ? (onsists o! %itt%e more
than Osama "in Faden) Aman a%-Jawahiri and a dou"%e hand!u% o! trusted) heavi%
vetted re%ationshi&s stret(hin' "a(# more than a de(ade* 3is&osa"%e o&eratives with
minima% trainin' (an "e &i(#ed u& !or s&e(i!i( missions) "ut these &eo&%e (annot do
anthin' ver (om&%e5 Hsu(h as in!i%trate a !orei'n (ountr and hiDa(# a (ivi%ian air%inerI*
Re&%a(ement o! %ost assets within this sma%% 'rou& is ne'%i'i"%e due to se(urit
(on(erns* +%timate%) the same se(urit &roto(o%s that em&owered a% 9aeda to "e a &%aer
o! strate'i( s(o&e are what removed a% 9aeda !rom the (hess"oard*
On(e the C1A and its a!!i%iated a%%ies named a% 9aeda &u"%i( enem /o* 8) a%
9aeda.s se(urit instin(ts "e(ame its 'reatest %ia"i%it* The ra&id +*S* invasion o!
A!'hanistan (au'ht a% 9aeda o!! 'uard ? the 'rou& had assumed it wou%d have months
o! +*S* &re-mission sta'in' "e!ore the invasion) a %esson it %earned !rom wat(hin' the
!irst 2u%! -ar* The @ui(# +*S* res&onse meant a% 9aeda was !or(ed to 'o into hidin'
"e!ore it had !u%% se(ured redundant (ommuni(ation) !undin' and trave% routes*
1nte%%i'en(e a'en( e!!orts to &enetrate a% 9aeda !or(ed the 'rou& to (onstri(t in!ormation
!%ow) %imit !inan(ia% trans!ers) redu(e re(ruitin' and a"andon o&erations* On(e the +nited
States su((eeded in (o-o&tin' Saudi assistan(e a'ainst a% 9aeda in 677E ? somethin'
"rou'ht a"out "oth " a +*S* &resen(e in 1ra@ and a% 9aeda.s own e!!orts to desta"i%i,e its
ideo%o'i(a% home%and ? a% 9aeda.s star sto&&ed !a%%in' and started &%ummetin'*
A% 9aeda has not on% !ai%ed in its attem&ts to tri''er re'ion-wide u&risin's
a'ainst the Midd%e 0ast.s se(u%ar 'overnments) it has a%so %ost the a"i%it to %aun(h
strate'i(a%% meanin'!u% atta(#s ? that is) atta(#s resu%tin' in &o%i( shi!ts " its tar'ets*
A% 9aeda (an o&erate to a (ertain de'ree in re'ions where it has a%%ies) man o! whom
!%owed throu'h its trainin' (am&s in the 8AA7s) "ut the a"i%it o! the 'rou& that &%anned
the AP88 atta(#s to o&erate "eond the Midd%e 0ast and South Asia seems to have
disa&&eared* Attrition a!ter ears o! (on!rontation with the Ameri(ans) (ou&%ed with se%!-
im&osed iso%ation) has rendered a% 9aeda use%ess as a strate'i( a(tor* /ot on% is its
a"i%it to &rovide (ommand and (ontro% none5istent) "ut its se%!-en!or(ed invisi"i%it and
ina(tivit have undermined its (redi"i%it*
Furthermore) a% 9aeda has %e!t no one tru% (a&a"%e o! ta#in' u& its mant%e* The
trainin' (am&s in the 8AA7s &ro(essed hundreds o! wou%d-"e Dihadists) "ut the @ua%it o!
that trainin' !or the ran# and !i%e has "een e5a''erated* Most o! it was a (om"ination o!
&oor (onventiona% (om"at trainin' and ideo%o'i(a% indo(trination* ;en(e) most
=veterans> o! those (am&s have neither a((ess to the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi& nor the
o&erationa% se(urit or ta(ti(a% trainin' that wou%d a%%ow them to re(onstitute a new e%ite
(ore* The are no more mem"ers o! the rea% =a% 9aeda> than toda.s s#inheads are
mem"ers o! the rea% /a,i &art*
B the on% (riterion that matters ? su((ess!u% atta(#s ? a% 9aeda has s%i&&ed
!rom readDustin' '%o"a% &riorities HAP88I to (ontri"utin' to the (han'e in 'overnment o! a
midd%in' +*S* a%% Hthe Mar(h 677E S&ain atta(#sI to a!!e(tin' nothin' Hthe 6775 Fondon
"om"in'sI* /o atta(#s sin(e (an "e meanin'!u%% %in#ed to a% 9aeda.s (ontro%) or even its
s&e(i!i( !ore#nown "%essin'* A% 9aeda had ho&ed !or a (on!%a'ration o! outra'e that
wou%d swee& awa the Midd%e 0ast.s &o%iti(a% orderK it on% mana'ed to raise a !ew
s&ar#s here and there) and now it is a &risoner o! its own se(urit*
Cet) &u"%i( dis(ussion o! a%% thin's =a% 9aeda)> !ar !rom !adin') has rea(hed a
!ever &it(h* But this ta%# ? a%% o! it ? is a"out a !undamenta%% di!!erent "east*
E0+er Al Qae(a +,e Fra0c,)se
1t a%% started with A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi) who &ut himse%! !orward as the %eader
o! the 1ra@i node o! a% 9aeda in 677:* -hi%e one (an ar'ue that a%-Jar@awi mi'ht have
"een throu'h an a% 9aeda trainin' (am& or shared man o! "in Faden.s ideo%o'i(a% 'oa%s)
no one serious% asserts he had the trainin') vettin' or !a(e time with "in Faden to @ua%i!
as an inner mem"er o! the a% 9aeda %eadershi&* ;e was a %o(a% %eader o! a %o(a% mi%itant
'rou& who (%aimed an asso(iation with a% 9aeda as a matter o! esta"%ishin' %o(a% 'ravitas
and internationa% (redi"i%it* Other 'rou&s) su(h as Southeast Asia.s Jemaah 1s%amiah)
had asso(iations with a% 9aeda %on' "e!ore a%-Jar@awi) "ut a%-Jar@awi was the !irst to
(%aim the name =a% 9aeda> as his own*
For a% 9aeda) &revented " its se(urit (on(erns !rom en'a'in' in its own atta(#s)
re&udiatin' a%-Jar@awi wou%d ma#e the ="ase> (ome a(ross as "oth im&otent and out o!
tou(h* A((e&tin' =asso(iation> with a%-Jar@awi was the o"vious (hoi(e) and "in Faden
went so !ar as to issue an audio (ommuni@ue anointin' a%-Jar@awi as a% 9aeda.s &oint
man in 1ra@*
Others have a%so em"ra(ed the a%-Jar@awiPa% 9aeda asso(iation) as du"ious as it
was* A% 9aeda.s o&erationa% se(urit &roto(o%s ? and its on'oin' &resen(e Dust "eond
the +nited States. rea(h in northwestern 4a#istan ? meant that destroin' a% 9aeda Hthe
rea% a% 9aedaI was at "est a di!!i(u%t &ros&e(t* But a%-Jar@awi was %o(a% and a(tive and
(%ear% va%ued %aun(hin' atta(#s over maintainin' hermeti(a%% sea%ed se(urit* A%-
Jar@awi (ou%d "e "rou'ht down* And Dust as a%-Jar@awi.s =asso(iation> with a% 9aeda
in(reased his street (red with the Ara" wor%d) that =asso(iation> a%so in(reased his va%ue
to the +*S* mi%itar as a tar'et* Ta#in' down an =a% 9aeda-%in#ed terrorist> was mu(h
"etter !or &ur&oses o! &u"%i( re%ations and !undin' than ta#in' down an random mi%itant*
The media) o! (ourse) stand read to he%&K re&ortin' on a mi%itant with dire(t (onne(tions
to "in Faden is se5 ? even i! that (onne(tion was on% (at(hin' a '%im&se o! Bi' =O>
wa%#in' " durin' "rea#!ast*
The resu%t has "een the !ormation o! an odd iron trian'%e amon' an a% 9aeda
des&erate !or re%evan(e) %o(a% Dihadists see#in' a !ast tra(# to im&ortan(e and -estern
inte%%i'en(e and %aw en!or(ement see#in' (redi"i%it and !undin'* 1n the (ommon
%e5i(on) a% 9aeda is no %on'er that (ore o! hi'h% trained and motivated individua%s who
tried to (han'e the wor%d " "rin'in' down the -or%d Trade Center) "ut a do-it-ourse%!
Dihadist !ran(hise that a%most anone (an Doin* Some nodes are (o&(ats who %oo# to the
rea% a% 9aeda !or ins&irationK others are e5istin' mi%itant 'rou&s ? su(h as A%'eria.s
Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at) now (a%%ed the a% 9aeda Or'ani,ation !or the
Countries o! the Ara" Ma'hre" ? that (an identi! with their ideo%o'i(a% "rethren* But
!ew to none have an rea% (onne(tions to a% 9aeda*
Nio%en(e is (ertain to (ontinue) "ut the %a(# o! meanin'!u% atta(#s in the -est in
'enera% and the +nited States in &arti(u%ar su''ests a% 9aeda.s de'raded (a&a(it and the
-est.s im&roved se(urit have minimi,ed the (han(es o! a 'eo&o%iti(a%% si'ni!i(ant
atta(# !or the ne5t severa% ears*
This does not mean wou%d-"e =a% 9aeda> 'rou&s are not dan'erous) or that the
=war on terror> is anwhere near over* -hi%e some o! the wou%d-"e a% 9aeda 'rou&s
a%most seem (omi(a%) others are (om&etent mi%itants in their own ri'ht ? with a%-
Jar@awi &erha&s "ein' the most %etha% e5am&%e* Their num"ers are a%so 'rowin'* The
on'oin' war in 1ra@ has &rovided &otentia% mi%itants a(ross the 1s%ami( wor%d with the
motive to do somethin' and the o&&ortunit to 'ain some serious on-the-Do" trainin'* Just
as Soviet o&erations in A!'hanistan (reated a trainin' 'round !or a 'eneration o! Midd%e
0astern mi%itants in the 8AG7s and 8AA7s) the 1ra@ war is in &art a (ru(i"%e !or the ne5t
'eneration o! Ara" mi%itants* Add in a% 9aeda.s o!!er o! o&en asso(iation and we wi%% "e
hearin' !rom do,ens o! =a% 9aedas> in the ears to (ome*
Fu(#i%) %in#s "etween these new 'rou&s and their erstwhi%e s&onsor are %imited
most% to rhetori(* There mi'ht "e a !ew thousand &eo&%e out there (%aimin' to "e a%
9aeda mem"ers) "ut the rea% a% 9aeda does not e5er(ise an (ontro% over them* The are
not (oordinated in their o&erations or even wor#in' toward a (ommon 'oa%* And whi%e
man o! these new a% 9aedas mi'ht "e (om&etent mi%itant 'rou&s) the %a(# the
(om"ination o! strate'i( vision and o"session with se(urit that u%timate% a%%owed the
ori'ina% a% 9aeda to move mountains*
To& it o!! with termino%o' "u-in !rom -estern inte%%i'en(e) %aw en!or(ement
and the media and the resu%t is a war %itera%% without endK the de!inition o! a% 9aeda is
stret(hed " near% an &%aer to !it near% an &o%iti(a% need* The +nited States is now
wa'in' a war a'ainst Dihadism as a &henomenon) rather than a'ainst an s&e(i!i(
transnationa% Dihadist movement*

Back +o %;uare O0e?
The &o%iti(a% situation in 4a#istan has %on' im&osed an unsta"%e stasis on what
man !ee% shou%d have "een the rea% !o(us o! the war on terror a%% a%on'* Sin(e es(a&in'
!rom A!'hanistan in 6778) the true a% 9aeda has s&ent most o! its time ta#in' re!u'e in
northwestern 4a#istan) where a mi5 o! &o%iti(a% (om&%i(ations and ethni( and tri"a%
a%%e'ian(es have a%%owed it to sta out o! harm.s wa*
The +nited States has "een aware o! a% 9aeda.s &resen(e there) "ut u%timate% has
not atta(#ed !or three reasons* First) a% 9aeda.s interna% se(urit &roto(o%s !or(ed the
or'ani,ation to iso%ate itse%!* 3urin' a time when the +nited States had a 'reat man !ish
to !r) a% 9aeda seemed to have &ut itse%! into %o(#downK it was issuin' videos) not
startin' wars %i#e ;e,"o%%ah or re(onstitutin' %i#e the Ta%i"an* Se(ond) whi%e +*S*
inte%%i'en(e #nows the re'ion in whi(h a% 9aeda resides) it has never 'otten enou'h detai%
to a%%ow !or airstri#es to ta#e (are o! "usiness* Su(h not-@uite-there inte%%i'en(e has
a%was "een Dust di!!use enou'h to ne(essitate "oots on the 'round ? and raise the
s&e(ter o! a disastrous% "ot(hed and &o%iti(a%% &ro"%emati( mi%itar o&eration*
-hi(h "rin's us to the third and) in man was) most im&ortant reason !or %eavin'
a% 9aeda a%one* The +nited States !e%t it (ou%d not ris# an assau%t !or !ear o! &o%iti(a%
!a%%out* +%timate%) the +nited States needs 4a#istani (oo&eration to wa'e war in
A!'hanistan ? a!ter a%%) 4a#istan has the on% easi% traversa"%e %and "order with the
%and%o(#ed (ountr ? and su&&ort !or radi(a% 1s%am runs dee& in "oth 4a#istani so(iet
and 'overnment* So) es) +*S* atta(#s a'ainst mi%itant sites %o(ated on 4a#istani soi%
ha&&en a%% the time) "ut the are sma%% &in&ri(# o&erations* An %ar'e atta(# (ou%d not "e
disavowed and) there!ore) (ou%d resu%t in the !a%% o! the ver 4a#istani 'overnment that
ma#es the hotter &arts o! the war on terror &ossi"%e*
Ba(# in 6775) the +nited States "e%ieved it had (redi"%e inte%%i'en(e a"out a
&%anned meetin' o! the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi& in northwestern 4a#istan* A stri#e !or(e
o! severa% hundred to severa% thousand was assem"%ed in order to &un(h throu'h the
4a#istani tri"es hidin' and shie%din' "in Faden and his a%%ies) "ut the stri#e was
u%timate% a"andoned "e(ause then-3e!ense Se(retar 3ona%d Rums!e%d !e%t the
o&eration (ou%d not "e #e&t @uiet* 1t is one thin' when 4a#istanis thin# there are a !ew
Ameri(ans runnin' over the "order to do somethin' ta(ti(a%* 1t is @uite another when
4a#istanis #now that severa% thousand Ameri(ans with heav air su&&ort are sur'in'
a(ross to do somethin' strate'i(* The +*S* mi'ht have "een a"%e to ta#e out its tar'et) "ut
&ro"a"% not without %osin' a (riti(a% a%%*
3etai%s o! this atta(# &%an were %ea#ed Ju% G to The /ew Cor# Times* For us at
STRATFOR) news o! the &%ans was nothin' new* 1t made &er!e(t sense that this &%an) and
%i#e% do,ens o! others %i#e it) were at various times in the wor#s stret(hin' "a(# as !ar as
677E Hand we have noted su(h on numerous o((asionsI* -hat (au'ht our attention was
the timin' o! The /ew Cor# Times arti(%e* The +nited States has "een eein'
northwestern 4a#istan !or ears* -h draw attention to that !a(t now<
The +nited States. (ore !ear in 6775 was that the 4a#istani 'overnment wou%d
desta"i%i,e* -e%%) in 677B) the 4a#istani 'overnment is horrendous% unsta"%e* On Ju% 87)
1s%ama"ad %aun(hed a mu%ti-hour raid re&%ete with Bran(h 3avidian overtones a'ainst the
Red Mos@ue (om&%e5 and a 'atherin' o! radi(a% Hsome wou%d sa menta%% unhin'edI
1s%amists (ha%%en'in' the 'overnment.s writ* Be worried when the 'overnment o! an
1s%ami( re&u"%i( !ee%s it must ta#e su(h a(tion* Be dou"% worried when the 'overnment
ta#in' the a(tion a%read seems to "e in its death throes*
4revious e!!orts " 4a#istani 4resident 2en* 4erve, Musharra! to stren'then his
&o%iti(a% 'ri& on the (ountr " !irin' the (hie! Dusti(e re"ounded on him so severe% that
he (annot even de&end u&on his o%dest a%%ies* Narious &o%iti(a%) mi%itar and (u%tura%
&ower (enters are sni&in' at the &resident) ma#in' their own inde&endent and o!ten
(ontradi(tor demands* There are a%so hints that Musharra!.s !a(u%ties are "e'innin' to
(ra(#* The 'overnment ? as we%% as the &resident ? is now teeterin' on the ed'e o!
o"%ivion) !a(in' an unsavor menu o! (rushin' (om&romise with one !or(e or another to
sta in &ower in name) and ris#in' the tur"u%ent waters o! emer'en( ru%e over an
in(reasin'% hosti%e &o&u%ation*
1! the threat o! a 'overnment !a%% was the on% thin' ho%din' -ashin'ton "a(# in
6775) and now that the !a%% is imminent throu'h no a(tion o! the +nited States) what does
-ashin'ton have to 'ain !rom restrainin' itse%! an !urther<
This is more than a rhetori(a% @uestion* The re%ative ina(tivit o! a% 9aeda these
&ast si5 ears) as we%% as the &o%iti(a% situation in 4a#istan) has im&osed a sha#
e@ui%i"rium on the issue* A% 9aeda.s se(urit &roto(o%s (urtai% a% 9aeda.s threat %eve%) and
that has a%%owed the +nited States to she%ve the issue !or another da* Meanwhi%e) the
insta"i%it o! Musharra!.s 'overnment %imits the +nited States. a"i%it to &ressure
1s%ama"ad over the issue o! a% 9aeda* Conse@uent%) a% 9aeda has "een more or %ess
hidin' in &%ain si'ht*
A%ter an as&e(t o! this s(enario ? in this (ase) drasti(a%% in(rease the totterin'
o! the Musharra! 'overnment ? and the =sta"i%it> o! the other &ie(es immediate%
"rea#s and the +nited States is !or(ed to sur'e assets into 4a#istan*
-ashin'ton has to assume that an a% 9aeda anwhere "ut 4a#istan is an a% 9aeda
that wi%% a(t with %ess (onservatism* B the Ameri(an %o'i() a% 9aeda assets in Saudi
Ara"ia) %on' dri%%ed that se(urit is &aramount) wou%d natura%% dou"t that a te%e'ram
!rom "in Faden orderin' a new atta(# is 'enuine ? "ut the wou%d (ertain% "e%ieve "in
Faden himse%! shou%d he show u& at their door* B a% 9aeda.s %o'i() Musharra!.s !a%%
wou%d !or(e a% 9aeda to re%o(ate !rom 4a#istan "e(ause the 'rou& wou%d have to assume
that the Ameri(ans wou%d "e (omin'*
-hi(h means the odd stasis in the war on terror these &ast si5 ears (ou%d "e
a"out to %oosen u&) and a !ront that has &roven odd% (o%d mi'ht "e a"out to (at(h !ire*
+*S*: The /ationa% 1nte%%i'en(e 0stimate o! a% 9aeda
6uy 18, 2007
A((ordin' to the /ationa% 1nte%%i'en(e 0stimate H/10I re%eased Ju% 8B) the +*S*
inte%%i'en(e (ommunit "e%ieves that a% 9aeda is sti%% %oo#in' to atta(# tar'ets that wou%d
have a si'ni!i(ant e(onomi() &o%iti(a% and &s(ho%o'i(a% im&a(t on the +nited States*
Furthermore) the re&ort indi(ates that the +*S* inte%%i'en(e (ommunit "e%ieves a% 9aeda
is (a&a"%e o! devisin' innovative was to stri#e these tar'ets*
The re&ort re!%e(ts a% 9aeda &rime.s tar'etin' (riteria* Rather than (hoosin'
tar'ets "ased on mi%itar uti%it) a% 9aeda 'enera%% (hooses tar'ets !or their &otentia%
sm"o%i( va%ue in order to e%i(it the 'reatest &o%iti(a% or &s(ho%o'i(a% im&a(t) whi(h then
trans%ates into e(onomi( im&a(t* For e5am&%e) the +*S* State 3e&artment estimated that
over the (ourse o! one ear) the Se&t* 88 atta(#s (aused L867 "i%%ion in dama'e* That is
the #ind o! e(onomi( dama'e a% 9aeda wants to re&eat* The Se&t* 88 o&eration is
estimated to have (ost a% 9aeda "etween L:77)777 and L577)777*
Atta(#s in whi(h %ar'e num"ers o! &eo&%e are #i%%ed and maimed (reate the
'reatest &s(ho%o'i(a% im&a(t) as the 'enerate 'ra&hi() &rovo(ative ima'es that (an "e
s&%ashed a(ross te%evision s(reens and the !ront &a'es o! news&a&ers* The Se&t* 88 atta(#
a'ainst the -or%d Trade Center !it a% 9aeda.s &s(ho%o'i(a% and e(onomi( (riteria* The
atta(# a'ainst Madrid.s (ommuter rai% sstem in 677: met a% 9aeda.s &o%iti(a% (riterion in
that it in!%uen(ed S&ain.s de(ision to withdraw its mi%itar (ontin'ent !rom 1ra@*
Brid'es and other in!rastru(ture tar'ets (ou%d meet "oth sm"o%i( and e(onomi(
tar'etin' (riteria* A!ter su(h an atta(#) a massive e!!ort wou%d "e underta#en to re&air the
&hsi(a% dama'e) "ut the %in'erin' e(onomi() &o%iti(a% and so(ia% im&a(t wou%d "e
si'ni!i(ant* The /ew Cor# Sto(# 05(han'e) +*/* ;ead@uarters and Citi'rou& Center
"ui%din' in /ew Cor# Cit wou%d !it the (riteria !or e(onomi() mass-(asua%t and
sm"o%i( tar'ets) as wou%d the Chi(a'o Mer(anti%e 05(han'e) Chi(a'o Board o! Trade
and Sears Tower* The 1nternationa% Monetar Fund and -or%d Ban# "ui%din's in
-ashin'ton) 3*C*) the +*S* Ban# Tower H!ormer% #nown as the Fi"rar TowerI in
Ca%i!ornia and Fos An'e%es 1nternationa% Air&ort a%so wou%d ma#e the %ist* A% 9aeda has
a%read %oo#ed at these #inds o! tar'ets*
So!ter tar'ets su(h as hote%s) theaters and &%a(es where %ar'e num"ers o! &eo&%e
'ather (ou%d "e attra(tive !or mass-(asua%t atta(#s* ;owever) the threat to these tar'ets
wou%d more %i#e% (ome !rom a 'rassroots amateur mi%itant (e%% than !rom a (e%% sent "
a% 9aeda.s a&e5 %eadershi& Ha%thou'h a% 9aeda has survei%%ed the -a%dor!-Astoria ;ote%
in /ew Cor# Cit "e!ore) &ro"a"% "e(ause o! its hi'her-&ro!i%e (%iente%e) in(%udin'
di&%omats and heads o! stateI* 2rassroots Dihadists) su(h as the Fort 3i5 Si5) !o(us on
sma%%er) sim&%er and easier atta(#s* Theoreti(a%%) "e(ause o! their re%ative sim&%i(it)
these &%ots are harder to dete(t* ;owever) "e(ause the usua%% invo%ve uns#i%%ed
o&eratives who ma#e amateur mista#es) su(h &%ots are o!ten dis(overed durin' the
&%annin' sta'es o! the atta(# ((%e*
1n the &ost-Se&t* 88 wor%d) with in(reased vi'i%an(e and inte%%i'en(e (o%%e(tion
!o(usin' on &otentia% Dihadist threats) an e%a"orate atta(# invo%vin' mu%ti&%e o&eratives
ori'inatin' overseas has a hi'her (han(e o! "ein' dete(ted than "e!ore* So) whi%e the
%ar'e-s(a%e strate'i( atta(#s that ori'inate with a% 9aeda &rime are %i#e% to "e (arried out
" s#i%%ed o&eratives with a de(ent (han(e o! su((ess i! the (an evade dete(tion) those
atta(# &%ots are easier to dis(over*
The /10 a%so states that the +*S* inte%%i'en(e (ommunit "e%ieves a% 9aeda is
=innovative in (reatin' new (a&a"i%ities and over(omin' se(urit o"sta(%es> and that a%
9aeda has "een a"%e to re(onstitute its (a&a"i%ities in the A!'hanistan-4a#istan "order
area sin(e 6778* This does not mean the or'ani,ation is ma#in' use o! s&e(ia%i,ed
o&eratives trained to (ondu(t (overt o&erations inside the +nited States without "ein'
dete(ted* Furthermore) the +*S* 'overnment (ontinues to assume that a% 9aeda.s maDor
(on(ern is its e!!e(t on the +nited States* 1t sti%% does not understand a% 9aeda*
A% 9aeda and the Strate'i( Threat to the +*S* ;ome%and
6uy 28, 2007
The Ju% 8B re%ease o! &ortions o! a /ationa% 1nte%%i'en(e 0stimate H/10I tit%ed
=The Terrorist Threat to the +*S* ;ome%and> has 'enerated a 'reat dea% o! (omment !rom
STRATFOR readers) man o! whom (ontend it is at odds with our assessment &u"%ished
short% "e!ore the (ontents o! the /10 were %ea#ed* 1n that re&ort) we attem&ted to (%ari!
what we mean when we re!er to =a% 9aeda> and we di!!erentiate "etween the sma%% a%
9aeda (ore or'ani,ation Hwhat we (a%% =a% 9aeda &rime>I) the somewhat wider arra o! a%
9aeda !ran(hise or'ani,ations Hsu(h as a% 9aeda in 1ra@I and the "road assortment o!
'rassroots Dihadists who have no a(tua% (onne(tion to the (ore or'ani,ation* Our
assessment a%so e(hoed an assertion we have "een ma#in' !or @uite some time now ?
that a% 9aeda %a(#s the a"i%it to &ose a strate'i( threat to the +nited States*
1t must "e understood that a% 9aeda and other Dihadists sti%% &ose a ta(ti(a% threat
to the +*S* home%and* 1n other words) the (an sti%% #i%% Ameri(ans* 1n !a(t) in %oo#in' at
the Dihadist shi!t in o&erations a"road) atta(#s a'ainst sma%%er) so!ter tar'ets have a(tua%%
(aused more !ata%ities than %ar'e-s(a%e stri#es a'ainst hard tar'ets* ;owever) atta(#s
a'ainst %ow-%eve% so!t tar'ets) su(h as the /ovem"er 6775 hote% atta(#s in Amman)
Jordan) and the Ju% B) 6775) sui(ide "om"in's in Fondon) do not have the strate'i(
im&a(t o! a AP88-st%e atta(#*
A num"er o! ta(ti(a% and strate'i( (onsiderations have %ed us to (on(%ude that a%
9aeda does not &ose a strate'i( threat*
Tac+)cal "eal)+)es
As %on' as the ideo%o' o! Dihadism e5ists and Dihadists em"ra(e the &hi%oso&h o!
atta(#in' the =!ar enem)> the wi%% &ose a threat on +*S* soi%* Thou'h the +*S*
'overnment has ti'htened visa and as%um restri(tions sin(e AP88) those &ro(esses sti%%
(ontain ho%es* Furthermore) 'iven that even sma%%) re&ressive re'imes have "een una"%e
to (ontro% their immi'ration) it is not sur&risin' that a (ountr as %ar'e as the +nited
States) one that must dea% with the o&en nature o! +*S* so(iet) (annot hermeti(a%% sea% it
"orders to &revent terrorist o&eratives !rom enterin'* Jihadist o&eratives sti%% (an rea(h the
+nited States i%%e'a%%) " (ommittin' immi'ration !raud or s%i&&in' a(ross the "order*
Fe'a%%) the (an o"tain visas) use o&eratives !rom visa-waiver (ountries or those who are
+*S* (iti,ens* O! (ourse) &eo&%e residin' in the +nited States who de(ide to ='o Dihad>
a%so &ose a threat* -hi%e some) &erha&s even most) o! these Dihadist o&eratives wi%% "e
(au'ht "e!ore the (an enter) some inevita"% wi%% 'et into the (ountr* There
undou"ted% are su(h &eo&%e ? "oth transnationa% and home'rown o&eratives ? in the
+nited States ri'ht now* That is a ta(ti(a% rea%it*
Another ta(ti(a% rea%it is that the +*S* 'overnment sim&% (annot &rote(t ever
&otentia% tar'et* -hi%e insi'hts 'ained !rom a% 9aeda.s tar'etin' (riteria have he%&ed +*S*
authorities &rote(t hi'h-va%ue tar'ets) there sim&% are !ar too man &otentia% tar'ets to
&rote(t them a%%* The !edera% 'overnment mi'ht instru(t state and %o(a% authorities to
&rote(t ever "rid'e) dam) &ower &%ant and mass-transit sstem in their Durisdi(tion) "ut
the rea%it on the 'round is that there are not near% enou'h resour(es to &rote(t them a%%)
mu(h %ess ever sho&&in' ma%%) state !air) Jewish Communit Center) !oot"a%% 'ame or
other &otentia% so!t tar'et where &eo&%e (on(entrate*
Another ta(ti(a% (onsideration is the ease with whi(h an atta(# (an "e (ondu(ted*
As Nir'inia Te(h shooter Cho Seun' ;ui and 3*C* sni&er John A%%en Muhammed
demonstrated) it is not di!!i(u%t to #i%% &eo&%e* 1n !a(t) Cho #i%%ed more &eo&%e with
hand'uns in his atta(# at Nir'inia Te(h than Jemaah 1s%amiah #i%%ed in Ja#arta)
1ndonesia) in the Au'ust 677E "om"in's o! the Marriott ;ote% and the Austra%ian
0m"ass (om"ined* +niversit o! O#%ahoma student Joe% ;enr ;inri(hs a%so
demonstrated the ease with whi(h someone (an !a"ri(ate an im&rovised e5&%osive devi(e
H103I usin' TAT4 without "ein' dete(ted*
2iven this rea%it and the !a(t that Dihadists are (ommitted to sta'in' atta(#s on
+*S* soi% ? and are wi%%in' to die in the &ro(ess ? it rea%% is rather astoundin' that we
have not seen more Dihadist atta(#s in the +nited States*

%+ra+e5)c o0s)(era+)o0s
There are) however) some strate'i( (onsiderations that he%& e5&%ain wh we have
not seen a% 9aeda &rime e5e(ute the %on'-e5&e(ted !o%%ow-on atta(#* The !irst is that
strate'i( atta(#s are di!!i(u%t to &u%% o!!* A strate'i( atta(# is one that resu%ts in si'ni!i(ant
'eo&o%iti(a% &o%i( shi!t " its tar'et* An atta(# that destros a strate'i(-%eve% tar'et su(h
as the +*S* Ca&ito% or that (auses mass (asua%ties ? #i%%s 8)777 or more &eo&%e ? wou%d
(ertain% rise to this %eve%*
One &ro"%em is that most strate'i( tar'ets are %ar'e and we%%-(onstru(ted) and
there!ore hard to destro* 1n other words) Dust "e(ause a strate'i( tar'et is atta(#ed) that
does not mean the atta(# has su((eeded* 1ndeed) man su(h atta(#s have !ai%ed* 0ven
when a &%ot a'ainst a strate'i( tar'et is su((ess!u%% e5e(uted) it mi'ht not &rodu(e the
desired resu%ts) and there!ore wou%d "e (onsidered a !ai%ure* For e5am&%e) des&ite the
detonation o! a massive tru(# "om" in a &ar#in' 'ara'e o! the -or%d Trade Center in
8AAE) that atta(# !ai%ed to a(hieve the Dihadists. aims o! to&&%in' the two towers and
&rodu(in' mass (asua%ties) or o! (ausin' a maDor +*S* !orei'n &o%i( shi!t*
Man strate'i( tar'ets a%so are we%% &rote(ted a'ainst (onventiona% atta(#s* Their
%ar'e stando!! distan(es &rote(t them !rom vehi(%e-"orne im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es)
whi%e these and other se(urit measures ma#e it di!!i(u%t to (ause si'ni!i(ant dama'e to
them usin' sma%%er 103s or sma%% arms*
To over(ome these o"sta(%es) Dihadists have "een !or(ed to %oo# at a%ternate means
o! atta(#* A% 9aeda.s use o! %ar'e) !u%% !ue%ed &assen'er air(ra!t as 'uided missi%es is a
'reat e5am&%e o! this) thou'h it must "e noted that on(e that ta(ti( "e(ame #nown) it
(eased to "e via"%e ? as F%i'ht AE demonstrated* There is %itt%e (han(e that a !%i'ht (rew
and &assen'ers o! an air(ra!t wou%d a%%ow it to "e sei,ed " a sma%% 'rou& o! hiDa(#ers
now* ;owever) (on(ern remains over the &ossi"%e use o! %ar'e (ar'o air(ra!t or even some
o! the %ar'er 'enera% aviation air(ra!t in this !ashion ? es&e(ia%% 'iven a% 9aeda &rime.s
!i5ation on aviation*
There a%so has "een a maDor strate'i( shi!t in the wa a% 9aeda and Dihadists are
viewed* 4rior to AP88 the were (onsidered more or %ess a nuisan(e and %itt%e attention
was &aid to them* The o&erated !rom sa!e and re%ative% (om!orta"%e "ases in
A!'hanistan and were a"%e to train and dis&at(h o&eratives a"road with ease* The a%so
were a"%e to ta#e read advanta'e o! the '%o"a% !inan(ia% sstem to trans!er mone) and
the were a"%e to ho%d =re'iona% (on!eren(es> in &%a(es su(h as Kua%a Fum&ur) Ma%asia*
1n !a(t) we #now that &rior to AP88 a% 9aeda was &%annin' a num"er o! stri#es at the same
time) in(%udin' the !o%%ow-on &%ot to atta(# the Fi"rar Tower and other -est Coast
tar'ets with air(ra!t) and a &%ot to atta(# +*S* /av tar'ets in Sin'a&ore that was &ut on
ho%d so it did not inter!ere with the su((ess o! the AP88 o&eration* -ith a%% that
survei%%an(e and &%annin' 'oin' on) it is no wonder the AP88 Commission Re&ort (a%%ed
the summer o! 6778 =The Summer o! Threat*> Sin(e AP88 and the %aun(hin' o! the
='%o"a% war on terrorism>) however) the +*S* 'overnment.s anti-terrorism too% #it has
"een turned a'ainst the or'ani,ation in !u%% !or(e*
A%thou'h no strate'i( atta(#s have o((urred sin(e AP88) it is not !or %a(# o! trin'
on the Dihadists. &art* 1ndeed) man attem&ts have "een dis(overed and thwarted* -hi%e
the +nited States and its a%%ies were not rea%% !o(used on the a% 9aeda threat &rior to
AP88) the are a%most over-!o(used on the threat toda) %a"e%in' even 'rassroots wanna"e
Dihadists %i#e the Miami Seven as a% 9aeda* Sti%%) this intense !o(us) the &o%i( o!
disru&tin' &%ots and the in(rease in &u"%i( awareness have made it more di!!i(u%t !or
Dihadists to o&erate in the +nited States toda*
As we said) +*S* authorities wi%% not "e a"%e to sto& ever atta(# ? and the
#now the ne5t atta(# is a matter o! when and not i!* Be(ause o! this) the have ta#en 'reat
&ains to attem&t to %imit the im&a(t the %on'-e5&e(ted atta(# wi%% have* The have done
this " raisin' awareness a"out the items that (an "e used in terror atta(#s and " %imitin'
a((ess to these items* Toda) when a 'aso%ine tan#er tru(# 'oes missin') a @uantit o!
dnamite is sto%en !rom a @uarr or a sus&i(ious &erson attem&ts to "u a @uantit o!
ammonium nitrate !erti%i,er) &eo&%e @ui(#% re&ort these in(idents and a%erts are issued*
This sim&% did not ha&&en &rior to AP88*
Another !a(tor is &u"%i( rea(tion* The Ameri(an &u"%i( was sho(#ed " AP88* /ot
on% " the s(o&e and devastation o! the atta(#) "ut " the ver !a(t it ha&&ened* 4rior to
AP88) Ameri(ans (onsidered terrorism as somethin' that ha&&ens =over there> and not at
home* Toda) the Ameri(an &u"%i( has "een anti(i&atin' a !o%%ow-on atta(# on the +*S*
home%and sin(e the minute the towers !e%%* This means that when the ne5t atta(# ha&&ens)
there wi%% "e sadness) an'er and a hea%th round o! &o%iti(a% !in'er-&ointin' ? "ut it wi%%
not (ome as a sur&rise*
U0co0ve0+)o0al :ea3o0s
A% 9aeda a%so has (onsidered over(omin' se(urit measures to %aun(h strate'i(
stri#es " usin' (hemi(a%) "io%o'i(a%) radio%o'i(a% or nu(%ear wea&ons HCBR/I* -e #now
a% 9aeda has deve%o&ed (rude methods !or deve%o&in' (hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons*
1t a%so is &ossi"%e a% 9aeda &rime was "ehind the anthra5 mai%in's in 6778* ;owever) as
STRATFOR has re&eated% &ointed out) (hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons are e5&ensive)
are di!!i(u%t to use and have &roven to "e %ar'e% ine!!e(tive in rea%-wor%d a&&%i(ations* A
(om&arison o! the Aum Shinri#o (hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% atta(#s in To#o with the
Mar(h 677: Dihadist atta(#s in Madrid (%ear% demonstrates that e5&%osives are !ar
(hea&er) easier to use and more e!!e(tive at #i%%in' &eo&%e* The !ai%ure " Dihadists in 1ra@
to use (h%orine e!!e(tive% in their atta(#s a%so unders(ores the &ro"%em o! usin'
im&rovised (hemi(a% wea&ons*
O! (ourse it is not unima'ina"%e !or a% 9aeda or other Dihadists to thin# outside the
"o5 and atta(# a (hemi(a% stora'e site or tan#er (ar) usin' the "u%# (hemi(a%s to atta(#
another tar'et ? mu(h as the AP88 hiDa(#ers used air(ra!t as the means to atta(# the end
tar'et* ;owever) whi%e su(h an atta(# (ou%d re%ease enou'h o! a dead% (hemi(a% to #i%%
man &eo&%e) most &eo&%e wou%d "e eva(uated "e!ore the (ou%d re(eive a %etha% dose) as
&ast industria% a((idents have demonstrated* There!ore) su(h an atta(# wou%d "e mess
"ut wou%d "e more %i#e% to (ause &ani( and mass eva(uations) rather than mass
(asua%ties*
The same (an "e said o! a radio%o'i(a% dis&ersion devi(e HR33I) sometimes
(a%%ed a =dirt "om"*> -hi%e R33s are eas to de&%o ? so sim&%e that we are sur&rised
one has not a%read "een used a'ainst the +*S* home%and ? it is ver di!!i(u%t to
immediate% administer a %etha% dose o! radiation* There!ore) the "om" &art o! a dirt
"om" wou%d %i#e% #i%% more &eo&%e than the devi(e.s =dirt)> or radio%o'i(a%) (om&onent*
;owever) use o! an R33 wou%d resu%t in eva(uations and (ou%d re@uire a %en'th and
e5&ensive de(ontamination &ro(ess* Be(ause o! this) we re!er to them as =wea&ons o!
mass disru&tion> rather than wea&ons o! mass destru(tion*
The "ottom %ine is that a nu(%ear devi(e is the on% e%ement o! the CBR/ threat
that wou%d (reate mass (asua%ties and 'uarantee the su((ess o! a strate'i( stri#e* A%
9aeda) however) wou%d !ind it ver di!!i(u%t to o"tain Hor manu!a(tureI su(h a devi(e
whi%e it is under the intense &ressure it !a(es toda* 1! the or'ani,ation had &ossessed su(h
a devi(e sin(e "e!ore AP88) as some have (%aimed) we "e%ieve o&eratives wou%d have used
it %on' "e!ore now*
T,e Al Qae(a %,ell
C%ear%) Dihadists want to hit the +*S* home%and* 1n !a(t there has not "een a time
in the %ast 87 to 85 ears when some Dihadist somewhere hasn.t "een &%ottin' to atta(# the
+nited States* There %i#e% are home'rown and transnationa% Dihadists in the +nited States
ri'ht now &%ottin' atta(#s* There a%so are a wide variet o! vu%nera"%e tar'ets in the
+nited States and) as we have said) atta(#in' them is not that di!!i(u%t*
-e "e%ieve the +nited States is %on' overdue !or a Dihadist atta(#* Fi#e +*S*
;ome%and Se(urit Se(retar Mi(hae% Cherto!!) we "e%ieve the e%ements are %i#e% in
&%a(e !or su(h an atta(# in the near !uture* ;owever) we do not "e%ieve the atta(# wi%% "e
o! the same ma'nitude as the AP88 atta(#s*
The &ro"%em !or a% 9aeda is that the (ore 'rou&) in the words o! the /10) is
=%i#e% to (ontinue to !o(us on &rominent &o%iti(a%) e(onomi( and in!rastru(ture tar'ets
with the 'oa% o! &rodu(in' mass (asua%ties) visua%% dramati( destru(tion) si'ni!i(ant
e(onomi( a!tersho(#s andPor !ear amon' the +*S* &o&u%ation*> 1t is one thin' to %aun(h an
atta(# a'ainst the Sears Tower) !or e5am&%eK it is @uite another thin' to su((eed in
"rin'in' it down* -e "e%ieve a% 9aeda (an atta(# a tar'et %i#e the Sears Tower) "ut our
assessment is that the or'ani,ation (urrent% %a(#s the a"i%it to %aun(h a devastatin'
strate'i( atta(# ? one that wou%d destro the tar'et*
3oes this mean a% 9aeda wi%% %a(# this (a&a"i%it !orever< /o* 1! the +nited States
and its a%%ies were to (ease &ressurin' the or'ani,ation) and the Dihadist movement as a
who%e) it (ou%d in time re'enerate the (a&a"i%it* ;owever) we disa'ree with the /10
assertion that the 'rou& a%read has re'enerated to that &oint* A% 9aeda &rime is sti%%
dan'erous at the ta(ti(a% %eve%) "ut strate'i(a%% it is on% a she%% o! its !ormer se%!*
The O"sta(%es to the Ca&ture o! Osama "in Faden
Sept) 12, 2007
A% 9aeda.s As-Saha" media arm re%eased a video Se&t* 88 to (ommemorate the
si5th anniversar o! the AP88 atta(#s* A%thou'h the :B-minute video !eatures a voi(e-over
introdu(tion " Osama "in Faden) the "u%# o! it is o! A"u Musa" -a%eed a%-Shehri) one
o! the sui(ide "om"ers who (rashed Ameri(an Air%ines F%i'ht 88 into the -or%d Trade
Center.s north tower* That re(ordin' was made &rior to a%-Shehri.s trave% to the +nited
States in the s&rin' o! 6778*
There is nothin' in "in Faden.s audio se'ment to indi(ate it was re(orded
re(ent%* The &rodu(tion does in(%ude a sti%% &hoto'ra&h o! him ? one ta#en !rom what
a&&ears to "e a rea% "in Faden video re%eased Se&t* B Hin whi(h he s&orts a ded "eardI)
"ut "in Faden.s (omments a"out the death o! A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi su''est the were
re(orded durin' a% 9aeda.s 6776 media "%it,*
The re%ease o! two su((essive "in Faden messa'es) however) has a'ain !o(used
attention on "in Faden) who "e!ore %ast wee# had not "een seen on video sin(e %ate
O(to"er 677:* This in(reased attention has on(e a'ain (aused &eo&%e to @uestion wh the
+nited States has !ai%ed to !ind "in Faden ? and to wonder whether it ever wi%%*
-hi%e the !eds 'enera%% 'et their man in the movies or on te%evision) it is ver
di!!i(u%t in rea% %i!e to !ind a sin'%e &erson who does not want to "e !ound* 1t is even
harder when that &erson is hidin' in an e5treme% ru''ed) iso%ated and %aw%ess area and is
she%tered " a heavi% armed %o(a% &o&u%ation*
The +nited States and 4a#istan have not %aun(hed a maDor mi%itar o&eration to
enve%o& and sstemati(a%% sear(h the entire re'ion where "in Faden %i#e% is hidin' ?
an o&eration that wou%d re@uire tens o! thousands o! troo&s and %i#e% resu%t in heav
(om"at with the tri"es residin' in the area* Moreover) this is not the #ind o! o&eration
the wi%% ta#e on in the !uture* The +nited States) there!ore) wi%% (ontinue to &ursue
inte%%i'en(e and (overt S&e(ia% For(es o&erations) "ut i! it is 'oin' to (at(h "in Faden) it
wi%% have to wait &atient% !or one o! those o&erations to &rodu(e a %u(# "rea# ? or !or
"in Faden to ma#e a !ata% o&erationa% se(urit "%under*
Nee(le )0 a Ha-s+ack
Findin' a sin'%e man in a %ar'e area with ru''ed terrain is a dauntin' tas#) even
when a %ar'e num"er o! sear(hers and a vast arra o! the %atest hi'h-te(h survei%%an(e
e@ui&ment are invo%ved* This &rin(i&%e was demonstrated " the manhunt !or so-(a%%ed
=O%m&i( Bom"er> 0ri( Rudo%&h) who was a"%e to avoid one o! the %ar'est manhunts in
+*S* histor " hidin' in /orth Caro%ina.s 2reat Smo# Mountains* The tas# !or(e
%oo#in' !or Rudo%&h at times had hundreds o! !edera%) state and %o(a% %aw en!or(ement
o!!i(ers assi'ned to it) whi%e some o! its sear(h o&erations invo%ved thousands o! %aw
en!or(ement and vo%unteer sear(hers* The 'overnment a%so em&%oed hi'h-te(h
survei%%an(e and sensor e@ui&ment and even o!!ered a L8 mi%%ion reward !or in!ormation
%eadin' to Rudo%&h.s (a&ture*
;owever) Rudo%&h.s (a&ture in Ma 677E) more than !ive ears a!ter he was %isted
on the FB1.s most-wanted %ist) was not the resu%t o! the or'ani,ed sear(h !or him* Rather)
he was (au'ht " a roo#ie &o%i(e o!!i(er on a routine &atro% who !ound Rudo%&h
rumma'in' !or !ood in a dum&ster "ehind 'ro(er store* The o!!i(er did not even rea%i,e
he had (a&tured Rudo%&h unti% he had ta#en him to the &o%i(e station !or "oo#in'*
Hos+)le Terra)0
The terrain in the Smo# Mountains is tou'h and remote) "ut it is nothin'
(om&ared to the terrain in the soarin') (ra'' Sa!ed Koh ran'e that runs a%on' the
4a#istani-A!'han "order or in the ;indu Kush to the north* Some o! the &ea#s in the
Sa!ed Koh ran'e) in(%udin' Mount Si#aram) are we%% over twi(e as hi'h as an &ea# in
the Smo#ies) whi%e the ;indu Kush (ontains some o! the hi'hest &ea#s in the wor%d*
But it is not on% the terrain that is hosti%e* 1n the 2reat Smo#ies) there are some
&eo&%e who are not ha&& to see =revenuers> and other 'overnment a'ents ? or other
stran'ers) !or that matter ? "ut at %east the area is under the !edera% 'overnment.s
(ontro%* The same (annot "e said o! the %aw%ess areas a%on' the A!'han-4a#istani "order
? the Federa%% Administered Tri"a% Areas HFATAI and the /orth--est Frontier 4rovin(e
H/-F4I* The &resen(e o! 4a#istani mi%itar !or(es is resented in these areas) and troo&s
are re'u%ar% atta(#ed " the heavi% armed tri"esmen %ivin' there*
This is not a new &henomenon " an means) thou'h* The 4ashtun tri"es in the
ru''ed area a%on' the 3urand Fine Hthe %ine set to demar(ate the "order "etween the
British RaD and A!'hanistan) whi(h %ater "e(ame the A!'han-4a#istani "orderI have
a%was "een di!!i(u%t to (ontro%* 0ven "e!ore the esta"%ishment o! 4a#istan) the
inha"itants o! the area 'ave the British (o%onia% authorities !its !or more than a (entur*
The Britons were never a"%e to 'ain !u%% (ontro% over the re'ion) so the instead 'ranted
e5tensive &ower to tri"a% e%ders) (a%%ed ma%i#s* +nder the dea%) the ma%i#s retained their
autonom in e5(han'e !or maintainin' &ea(e "etween the tri"esmen and the British RaD
? thus a%%owin' (ommer(e to (ontinue una"ated*
;owever) some dramati( !%are-u&s o! vio%en(e o((urred a'ainst the Britons durin'
their time in the re'ion* One o! the %ast o! them "e'an in 8AE6 when a re%i'ious %eader
#nown as the Fa@ir o! 1&i en(oura'ed his !o%%owers to wa'e Dihad on British !or(es* HJihad
a'ainst invadin' !or(es is a (enturies-o%d tradition in the re'ion*I The Fa@ir and his
!o%%owers !ou'ht an e5tended insur'en( a'ainst the British !or(es that on% ended when
the %e!t 4a#istan* The +nited Kin'dom attem&ted to (rush the Fa@ir and his !o%%owers)
"ut the outmanned and out'unned insur'ents used the ru''ed terrain and the su&&ort o!
the %o(a% tri"es to their advanta'e* 0!!orts to use s&ies to %o(ate or assassinate the Fa@ir
a%so !ai%ed* A%thou'h the British and (o%onia% troo&s &ursuin' the Fa@ir re&orted%
num"ered more than :7)777 at one &oint) the Fa@ir was never (a&tured or #i%%ed* ;e died
a natura% death in 8A67*

A 1o(er0 Fa;)r?
+nder +*S* &ressure) the 4a#istani mi%itar entered the FATA in !or(e in Mar(h
677: to &ursue !orei'n mi%itants ? !or the !irst time sin(e the (ountr.s (reation ? "ut
the o&eration resu%ted in heav (asua%ties !or the 4a#istani arm) demonstratin' how
di!!i(u%t it is !or the 4a#istani mi%itar to !i'ht &eo&%e so we%% inte'rated in the 4ashtun
tri"a% "ad%ands* Fo%%owin' that !ai%ed o&eration) the 4a#istani 'overnment reverted to the
British mode% o! ne'otiatin' with the ma%i#s in an e!!ort to (om"at the in!%uen(e o! the
Ta%i"an and !orei'n Dihadists ? and has "een harsh% (riti(i,ed "e(ause o! it* /owadas)
Dihadist insur'ents are atta(#in' 4a#istani se(urit and inte%%i'en(e !or(es in the 4ashtun
areas in the /orthwest*
The &ara%%e%s "etween the hunt !or the Fa@ir o! 1&i and "in Faden are o"vious ?
thou'h it must "e noted that "in Faden is a Saudi and not a native-"orn 4ashtun*
;owever) man o! the (ha%%en'es that the +nited Kin'dom !a(ed in that o&eration are
a%so "ein' !a(ed " the +nited States toda*
Aside !rom the terrain ? a !ormida"%e o"sta(%e in and o! itse%! ? +*S* !or(es are
ham&ered " the stron') (onservative 1s%ami( (onvi(tion o! the &eo&%e in the re'ion* This
(onvi(tion e5tends "eond the tri"es to in(%ude some mem"ers o! the 4a#istani mi%itar
and 4a#istan.s inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies ? es&e(ia%% those at the o&erationa% %eve% in the
re'ion* 1t must "e remem"ered that &rior to AP88 the 4a#istani 1nter-Servi(es 1nte%%i'en(e
a'en( and mi%itar o&en% su&&orted the Ta%i"an and their a% 9aeda a%%ies* 1n addition to
the re%ationshi&s !ormed "etween "in Faden and the so-(a%%ed =A!'han Ara"s> H!orei'n
DihadistsI durin' the war a'ainst the Soviets) 4a#istani troo&s a%so trained and !ou'ht
a%on'side the Ta%i"an and a% 9aeda in their "att%es a'ainst the /orthern A%%ian(e and other
!oes* Be(ause o! these dee& and histori( ties) there are some in the 4a#istani 'overnment
Hs&e(i!i(a%% within the se(urit a&&aratusI who remain sm&atheti() i! not outri'ht %oa%)
to their !riends in the Ta%i"an and a% 9aeda*
Additiona%%) and &erha&s Dust as im&ortant) man in the 4a#istani 'overnment
and mi%itar do not want to #i%% their own &eo&%e ? the 4ashtuns) !or e5am&%e ? in order
to destro the mu(h sma%%er su"set o! 4a#istani and !orei'n mi%itants* The (ha%%en'e is to
e%iminate the mi%itants whi%e (ausin' ver %itt%e (o%%atera% dama'e to the rest o! the
&o&u%ation ? and some in the 4a#istani 'overnment sa the airstri#es in &%a(es su(h as
Chin'ai and 3amado%a have not a((om&%ished this 'oa%* 1n Au'ust) 4a#istani Forei'n
Minister Khurshid Kasuri to%d te%evision (hanne% AAJ that 4a#istan had done a%% it (an in
the war on terrorism and that) =/o one shou%d e5&e(t anthin' more !rom 1s%ama"ad*>
1n an o&eration su(h as the manhunt !or "in Faden) inte%%i'en(e is (riti(a%*
;owever) the Ta%i"an and a% 9aeda so !ar have used their home-!ie%d advanta'e to
esta"%ish "etter inte%%i'en(e networ#s in the area than the Ameri(ans* A((ordin' to +*S*
(ounterterrorism sour(es) +*S* inte%%i'en(e had 'athered some ver 'ood %eads in the
ear% das o! the hunt !or "in Faden and other hi'h-va%ue a% 9aeda tar'ets) and the
shared this inte%%i'en(e with their (ounter&arts in the 4a#istani se(urit a&&aratus to tr to
or'ani,e o&erations to a(t on the inte%%i'en(e* 3urin' this &ro(ess) &eo&%e within the
inte%%i'en(e a&&aratus &assed in!ormation "a(# to a% 9aeda) thus (om&romisin' the
sour(es and methods "ein' used to (o%%e(t the in!ormation* These dou"%e a'ents inside
the 4a#istani 'overnment did 'rave dama'e to the +*S* human inte%%i'en(e networ#*
3ou"%e a'ents within the 4a#istani 'overnment are not the on% &ro"%em)
however* Fo%%owin' AP88) there was a ra&id in(rease in the num"er o! (ase o!!i(ers
assi'ned to (o%%e(t in!ormation &ertainin' to a% 9aeda and "in Faden) and the C1A was
assi'ned to "e the %ead a'en( in the hunt* One "i' &ro"%em with this) a((ordin' to
sour(es) was that most o! these (ase o!!i(ers were oun') ine5&erien(ed and i%%-suited to
the mission* The C1A rea%% needed &eo&%e who were more %i#e Rudard Ki&%in'.s
(hara(ter Kim ? savv (ase o!!i(ers who understand the re'ion.s (u%ture) issues and
a(tors) and who (an move im&er(e&ti"% within the %o(a% mi%ieu to re(ruit va%ua"%e
inte%%i'en(e sour(es* +n!ortunate% !or the C1A) it has "een una"%e to !ind a rea%-%i!e Kim*
This %a(# o! seasoned) savv and 'ritt (ase o!!i(ers is (om&%i(ated " the !a(t
that) o&erationa%%) a% 9aeda &ra(ti(es "etter se(urit than do the Ameri(ans* First) there
are !ew &eo&%e &ermitted to see "in Faden and the other senior %eaders) and most o! those
who are 'ranted a((ess are #nown and trusted !riends and re%atives* Someone e%se who
wants to see "in Faden or other senior a% 9aeda %eader must wait whi%e a messa'e is !irst
&assed via a num"er o! (ouriers to the or'ani,ation* 1! a meetin' is 'ranted) the &erson is
&i(#ed u& at a time o! a% 9aeda.s (hoosin' and ta#en "%ind!o%ded via a (ir(uitous route to
a %o(ation where he is stri&&ed and sear(hed !or "u's) "ea(ons and other tra(#in' devi(es*
The &erson then re&orted% is &o%'ra&hed to veri! that his stor is true* On% then wi%%
he "e ta#en ? "%ind!o%ded and via a (ir(uitous route ? to another site !or the meetin'*
These t&es o! measures ma#e it ver di!!i(u%t !or +*S* inte%%i'en(e o!!i(ers to 'et an o!
their sour(es (%ose to the a% 9aeda %eaders) mu(h %ess determine where the are hidin'
out*
The areas where "in Faden %i#e% is hidin' are remote and insu%ar* Nisitors to the
area are @ui(#% re(o'ni,ed and identi!ied ? es&e(ia%% i! the ha&&en to "e "%ond 'us
named S#i&* Moreover) residents who s&end too mu(h time ta%#in' to su(h outsiders
o!ten are %a"e%ed as s&ies and #i%%ed* These (onditions have served to ensure that the
Dihadists maintain a su&erior human inte%%i'en(e Hand (ounterinte%%i'en(eI networ# in the
area* 1t is a networ# that a%so stret(hes dee& into the heart o! 1s%ama"ad and Rawa%&indi)
1s%ama"ad.s twin (it and home to the 4a#istani arm.s 'enera% head@uarters*
T,e !r)ce of %ecur)+-
A%thou'h a% 9aeda.s o&erationa% se(urit and the Dihadist inte%%i'en(e networ#
have "een a"%e to #ee& "in Faden a%ive thus !ar) the have %ost a num"er o! other senior
o&eratives) in(%udin' Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed) Mohammed Ate!) A"u Ju"adah)
Ram,i "in a%-Shi"h) A"u FaraD a%-Fi"i and othersI* Most o! these have "een a% 9aeda
o&erationa% mana'ers) &eo&%e who) " the ver nature o! their Do"s) need to esta"%ish and
maintain (ommuni(ations with mi%itant (e%%s*
This drive to re(ruit new Dihadists to the (ause and to he%& (ontinue o&erationa%
a(tivit is what %ed to the %u(# "rea# that resu%ted in the 8AA5 arrest o! A"de% Basit) the
o&erationa% &%anner and "om"ma#er res&onsi"%e !or the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center
"om"in'* Basit had tried to re(ruit a !orei'n student to assist him in one o! the attem&ts to
(ondu(t =O&eration BoDin#a)> a &%an to "om" mu%ti&%e +*S* air%iners* ;avin' 'otten (o%d
!eet) the student revea%ed the &%ot) thus a%%owin' 3i&%omati( Se(urit s&e(ia% a'ents the
o&&ortunit to (oordinate an o&eration to arrest Basit*
A% 9aeda has %earned !rom the mista#es made " the men it has %ost and has "etter
se(ured the methods it uses to (ommuni(ate with the outside wor%d* This in(reased
se(urit) however) has resu%ted in in(reased insu%ation) whi(h has adverse% a!!e(ted not
on% (ommuni(ations "ut a%so !inan(ia% trans!ers and re(ruitin'* Com"ined with +*S*
e!!orts a'ainst a% 9aeda) this has resu%ted in a redu(tion in o&erationa% a"i%it and
e!!e(tiveness*
The tension "etween o&erations and se(urit &oses a si'ni!i(ant &ro"%em !or an
or'ani,ation that see#s to maintain and mana'e a '%o"a% mi%itant networ#* B o&tin' to
err on the side o! se(urit) "in Faden and the others (ou%d es(a&e (a&ture inde!inite%)
thou'h the wou%d remain o&erationa%% ine!!e(tive* ;owever) shou%d the attem&t to
"e(ome more o&erationa%% a(tive and e!!e(tive ? and de(rease their se(urit measures
to do so ? the wi%% &rovide the +nited States with more o&&ortunities to 'et the one
"rea# it needs to !ind "in Faden*
Summer 677B: The Atta(# that /ever O((urred
:ct) 17, 2007
The summer o! 677B was mar#ed " threats and warnin's o! an imminent terrorist
atta(# a'ainst the +nited States* 1n addition to the we%%-&u"%i(i,ed warnin's !rom
;ome%and Se(urit Se(retar Mi(hae% Cherto!! and a /ationa% 1nte%%i'en(e 0stimate that
a% 9aeda was 'ainin' stren'th) a !ormer 1srae%i (ounterterrorism o!!i(ia% warned that a%
9aeda was &%annin' a simu%taneous atta(# a'ainst !ive to seven Ameri(an (ities* Another
warnin' o! an im&endin' dirt "om" atta(# &rom&ted the /ew Cor# 4o%i(e 3e&artment to
set u& vehi(%e (he(#&oints near the !inan(ia% distri(t in Fower Manhattan* 1n addition to
these &u"%i( warnin's) +*S* 'overnment (ounterterrorism sour(es a%so to%d us &rivate%
that the were serious% (on(erned a"out the &ossi"i%it o! an atta(#*
A%% these warnin's were !o%%owed " the Se&t* B re%ease o! a video messa'e !rom
Osama "in Faden) who had not "een seen on video sin(e O(to"er 677: or heard on audio
ta&e sin(e Ju% 6776* Some were (onvin(ed that his rea&&earan(e ? and his vei%ed threat
? was the si'n o! a %oomin' atta(# a'ainst the +nited States) or &erha&s a si'na% !or an
atta(# to (ommen(e*
1n s&ite o! a%% these warnin's and "in Faden.s rea&&earan(e ? not the mention the
re%ative ease with whi(h an atta(# (an "e (ondu(ted ? no atta(# o((urred this summer*
A%thou'h our assessment is that the a% 9aeda (ore has "een dama'ed to the &oint that it
no %on'er &oses a strate'i( threat to the +*S* home%and) ta(ti(a% atta(#s a'ainst so!t tar'ets
remain sim&%e to (ondu(t and (ertain% are within the rea(h o! Dihadist o&eratives ?
re'ard%ess o! whether the are %in#ed to the a% 9aeda (ore*
-e "e%ieve there are severa% reasons no atta(# o((urred this summer ? or sin(e
AP88 !or that matter*
No o0sc)ous Dec)s)o0
Be!ore we dis(uss these !a(tors) we must note that the %a(# o! an atta(# a'ainst the
+*S* home%and sin(e AP88 has not "een the resu%t o! a (a%(u%ated de(ision " "in Faden
and the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi&* Far too man &%ots have "een disru&ted !or that to "e
the (ase* Man o! those !oi%ed and !ai%ed atta(#s) su(h as the 6776 !oi%ed &%ot to destro
air%iners !%in' !rom Fondon to the +nited States) the Fi"rar Tower 4%ot) Ri(hard Reid.s
!ai%ed attem&t to ta#e down Ameri(an Air%ines !%i'ht 6E in 3e(em"er 6778 and Jose
4adi%%a.s a(tivities ? "ear (onne(tion to the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi&*
So) i! the (ore a% 9aeda has desired) and even attem&ted) to stri#e the +nited
States) wh has it !ai%ed< 4erha&s the 'reatest sin'%e !a(tor is attitude ? amon' %aw
en!or(ement and inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies) the &u"%i( at %ar'e) the Mus%im (ommunit and
even the Dihadists themse%ves*
La4 E0force.e0+ a0( I0+ell)5e0ce
4rior to the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in') the FB1 denied the e5isten(e o! an
internationa% terrorism threat to the +*S* home%and) a stan(e re!%e(ted in the "ureau.s
=Terrorism in the +nited States> &u"%i(ations in the %ate 8AG7s and ear% 8AA7s* 0ven
a!ter the radi(a% Jionist Ra""i Meir Kahane was #i%%ed " a Dihadist with (onne(tions to
the Broo#%n Jihad O!!i(e and =B%ind Shei#h> Omar A"du%-Rahman) the FB1 and
3e&artment o! Justi(e denied the a(t was terrorism and %e!t the investi'ation and the
&rose(ution o! the 'unman) 0%Said /osair) to /ew Cor# &o%i(e and the Manhattan
3istri(t Attorne.s O!!i(e* HThou'h the were 'reat% aided on the !edera% %eve% " the
3i&%omati( Se(urit Servi(e) whi(h ran investi'ative %eads !or them in 0'&t and
e%sewhere*I
1t was on% a!ter /osair.s asso(iates detonated a %ar'e tru(# "om" in the &ar#in'
'ara'e o! the -or%d Trade Center in 8AAE that the e5isten(e o! a threat to the +nited
States was re(o'ni,ed* Cet) even a!ter that "om"in' and the disru&tion o! other &%ots ?
the Ju% 8AAB &%ot to "om" the /ew Cor# su"wa sstem and the 3e(em"er 8AAA
Mi%%ennium Bom" 4%ot ? the a&ath toward (ounterterrorism &ro'rams remained* This
was most evident in the %ow %eve%s o! !undin' and man&ower devoted to (ounterterrorism
&ro'rams &rior to AP88* As noted in the AP88 Commission Re&ort) (ounterterrorism
&ro'rams sim&% were not a &riorit*
0ven the A&ri% 8AA5 O#%ahoma Cit "om"in' made no rea% di!!eren(e* Some
(han'es were made) su(h as &hsi(a% se(urit enhan(ements at !edera% "ui%din's) "ut the
were mere% window dressin'* The rea% &ro"%ems) under%in' stru(tura% &ro"%ems in the
+*S* 'overnment.s (ounterterrorism e!!orts ? resour(es) &riorities and inte%%i'en(e-
sharin' ? were not addressed in a meanin'!u% wa*
4rior to AP88) e5&erts Hin(%udin' the two o! usI %e(turin' to %aw en!or(ement and
inte%%i'en(e 'rou&s a"out the a% 9aedaPtransnationa% terrorist threat to the +nited States
were met with indi!!eren(e* O! (ourse) !o%%owin' AP88 some o! those same 'rou&s &aid
(are!u% attention to what the e5&erts had to sa* Transnationa% terrorism had "e(ome rea%
to them* The AP88 atta(#s s&ar#ed a sea (han'e in attitudes within %aw en!or(ement and
inte%%i'en(e (ir(%es* Counterterrorism ? a''ressive% (o%%e(tin' inte%%i'en(e &ertainin' to
terrorism and &ursuin' terrorist %eads ? is now a &riorit*
)+)<e0 A4are0ess
Be!ore the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in' the Ameri(an &u"%i( a%so was
%ar'e% un(on(erned a"out internationa% terrorism* 0ven a!ter that "om"in') the &u"%i(
remained %ar'e% a&atheti( a"out the terrorist threat to the +*S* home%and* This was &art%
the resu%t o! the media.s (overa'e o! the 8AAE "om"in') whi(h seemed to !o(us on the
ha&%ess) "um"%in' Mohamed Sa%ameh and not the (unnin' and dan'erous A"de% Basit
Hwho is more wide% #nown " his a%ias) Ram,i Couse!I* Furthermore) the !o%%ow-on &%ot
to that atta(#) the 8AAE /ew Cor# "om" &%ot ? !or whi(h A"du%-Rahman and some o!
his !o%%owers were a((used o! &%annin' stri#es a'ainst the Fin(o%n Tunne% and other /ew
Cor# Cit %andmar#s ? was thwarted* This %ed man to "e%ieve that the 'overnment had
a hand%e on terrorism and that the +nited States was &rote(ted !rom su(h atta(#s* The
se(ond &%ot was thwarted "e!ore it (ou%d "e e5e(uted) and most Ameri(ans never saw the
'i'anti( (rater Hnear% 877 !eet a(rossI that the Fe"ruar 8AAE tru(# "om" (reated
throu'h severa% !%oors o! Bui%din' One.s rein!or(ed (on(rete &ar#in' 'ara'e* 1nstead)
the saw on% a "it o! smo#e "i%%owin' !rom the dama'ed "ui%din'* The 8AAE (ases
%a(#ed the stunnin' visua% dis&%as o! the AP88 atta(#s*
The events o! AP88 a%so (reated a 8G7-de'ree (han'e in how &eo&%e thin# a"out
terrorism and how the &er(eive and res&ond to sus&i(ious a(tivit* =1! ou see
somethin') sa somethin'> has "e(ome a &o&u%ar mantra) es&e(ia%% in /ew Cor# and
other %ar'e (ities* 4art o! this stems !rom the (han'ed attitudes o! %aw en!or(ement
o!!i(ia%s) who not on% have issued a&&ea%s in the &ress "ut a%so have made (ommunit
outrea(h visits to near% ever !%i'ht s(hoo%) tru(# drivin' s(hoo%) (hemi(a% su&&%
(om&an) !erti%i,er dea%er and stora'e renta% (om&an in the +nited States* Throu'h
media re&orts o! terrorist &%ots and atta(#s) the &u"%i( a%so has "e(ome mu(h more aware
o! the &re(ursor (hemi(a%s !or im&rovised e5&%osive mi5tures and a&&%ies !ar more
s(rutin to anone attem&tin' to &ro(ure them in "u%#*
+*S* (iti,ens a%so are !ar more aware o! the im&ortan(e o! &reo&erationa%
survei%%an(e and ? !air or not ? it is now ver di!!i(u%t !or a &erson wearin' traditiona%
Mus%im dress to ta#e a &hoto'ra&h o! anthin' without "ein' re&orted to the authorities
" a (on(erned (iti,en*
This (han'e in attitude is &arti(u%ar% si'ni!i(ant in the Mus%im (ommunit itse%!*
Contrar to the ho&es o! "in Faden ? and the !ears o! the +*S* 'overnment ? the
theo%o' o! Dihadism has not ta#en root in the +nited States* Certain% there are
individua%s who have (ome to em"ra(e this ideo%o') as the arrests o! some 'rassroots
a(tivists demonstrate) "ut su(h &eo&%e are ver mu(h the e5(e&tion* 1n s&ite o! some
&ro"%ems) the %aw en!or(ement (ommunit has !or'ed some stron' %in#s to the Mus%im
(ommunit) and in severa% (ases Mus%ims have even re&orted &otentia% Dihadists to %aw
en!or(ement*
0ven in &%a(es where Dihadism has more su((ess!u%% in!i%trated the Mus%im
(ommunit) su(h as 0uro&e) /orth A!ri(a and Saudi Ara"ia) the Dihadists sti%% (onsider it
&re!era"%e to wa'e the =rea%> Dihad a'ainst =(rusader troo&s> in &%a(es su(h as 1ra@) rather
than to atta(# so!t (ivi%ian tar'ets in the -est or e%sewhere* As un&o&u%ar as it is to sa) in
man was 1ra@ has served as a sort o! Dihadist ma'net) drawin' oun' men !rom around
the wor%d to =martr> themse%ves* 4ra'mati(a%%) ever oun' Dihadist who trave%s !rom
0uro&e or the Midd%e 0ast to die in Ba'hdad or Ar Ramadi is one %ess who (ou%d atta(#
Boston) Fondon) Brusse%s or Rome*

A++)+u(e )s Ever-+,)05
1n %ate 8AA6 and ear% 8AAE) amateur &%annin' was a%% that was re@uired to
(ondu(t a su((ess!u% terrorist atta(# on +*S* soi%* 1n addition to the a%most (omi(a%
mista#es made " Sa%ameh) serious 'a!!es a%so were made " Ahmed ADaD and Basit as
the &re&ared !or the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in'* ;owever) "e(ause o! the
&revai%in' a&atheti( attitude amon' %aw en!or(ement o!!i(ia%s and the &u"%i( in 'enera%)
those mista#es were not !ata% to the o&eration*
2iven the (han'es in attitude sin(e AP88) however) no o&eration (ondu(ted as
&oor% as the 8AAE "om"in' wou%d su((eed toda* Be!ore the "om"in') the FB1
investi'ated the (e%% that (arried it out) made the determination that the men were
harm%ess !anati(s and (%osed the investi'ation* That wou%d not ha&&en toda) as even
s%i'ht% 'oo!) wanna"e terrorists su(h as the Miami Seven are vi'orous% investi'ated
and &rose(uted when &ossi"%e*
-hen ADaD and Basit !%ew into JFK Air&ort in Se&tem"er 8AA6) authorities &rett
mu(h i'nored the !a(t that ADaD was !ound trans&ortin' a %ar'e @uantit o! Dihadist
materia%) in(%udin' "om"ma#in' manua%s and videos* 1nstead) he was senten(ed to si5
months in Dai% !or (ommittin' &ass&ort !raud ? a mere s%a& on the wrist ? and was then
to "e de&orted* ;ad authorities ta#en the time to (are!u%% review the materia%s in ADaD.s
"rie!(ase) the wou%d have !ound two "oardin' &asses and two &ass&orts with e5it stam&s
!rom 4a#istan* Be(ause o! that oversi'ht) no one noti(ed that ADaD was trave%in' with a
(om&anion* 0ven when his (o-(ons&irators (a%%ed ADaD in Dai% see#in' his he%& in
!ormu%atin' their im&rovised e5&%osive mi5tures and re(overin' the "om"ma#in'
manua%s) the (a%%s were not tra(ed* 1t was not unti% a!ter the "om"in' that ADaD.s
invo%vement was dis(overed) and he was (onvi(ted and senten(ed*
These #inds o! oversi'hts wou%d not o((ur now* Furthermore) the attitude o! the
&u"%i( toda ma#es it !ar more di!!i(u%t !or a (ons&irator %i#e /ida% Aad to order
(hemi(a%s used to (onstru(t a "om") or !or the (ons&irators to re(eive and store su(h
(hemi(a%s in a rented stora'e s&a(e without "ein' re&orted to the authorities*
Another (han'e in attitude has "een on the %e'a% !ront* 4rior to the 8AAE -or%d
Trade Center "om"in') there were no =terrorism> statutes (on(ernin' the use o! wea&ons
o! mass destru(tion or a(ts o! terrorism trans(endin' nationa% "orders* 1nstead)
&rose(utors in terrorism (ases stru''%ed to a&&% e5istin' %aws* The de!endants in the
8AAE /ew Cor# "om" &%ot (ase were not (har'ed with (ons&irin' to "ui%d "om"s or
(ommit a(ts o! internationa% terrorism* Rather) the were (onvi(ted on =seditious
(ons&ira(> (har'es* Simi%ar%) Sa%ameh was (onvi(ted o! vio%atin' the S&e(ia%
A'ri(u%tura% -or#er &ro'ram and with dama'in' +*S* Se(ret Servi(e (ars stored in the
"asement o! the -or%d Trade Center "ui%din'*
The +*S* se(urit environment has indeed im&roved dramati(a%% sin(e 8AAE)
%ar'e% as a resu%t o! the swee&in' (han'es in attitude) thou'h a%so to some e5tent due to
the ma'net e!!e(t o! the war in 1ra@* Su((ess (an en'ender (om&%a(en() however) and
the %a(# o! atta(#s (ou%d a%%ow attitudes ? and thus (ounterterrorism resour(es ? to
swin' "a(# toward the other end o! the s&e(trum*
1ra@: The +&(omin' Jihadist 05odus
5ec) 7, 2007
The to& Dihadist %eader in 1ra@ (a%%ed 3e(* : !or a !resh "om"in' (am&ai'n a'ainst
1ra@i se(urit !or(es* 1n a :6-minute audio messa'e) whi(h sur!a(ed on the 1nternet)
1s%ami( State o! 1ra@ %eader A"u Omar a%-Ba'hdadi said ever so%dier in his 'rou& must
e5&%ode at %east three "om"s " the end o! Januar* ;e !urther said the atta(#s shou%d
tar'et the =un"e%ievers who wear uni!orms and a%% those who !i'ht a%on'side the
o((u&iers*> A%-Ba'hdadi announ(ed the !ormation o! a s&e(ia% unit) the a%-Siddi@ue
Bri'ade) whi(h is tas#ed with atta(#in' Sunni tri"a% mi%itia a%i'ned with the +*S* mi%itar
a'ainst the Dihadists*
The messa'e (omes on the hee%s o! si'ni!i(ant ? &erha&s devastatin' ? Dihadist
%osses and a serious de(%ine in their o&erationa% (a&a"i%it in re(ent months* There!ore) it
su''ests the Dihadists not on% are on the de!ensive) "ut a%so are 'ettin' @uite des&erate
over seein' their s&here o! o&erations shrin# in 1ra@* The 1ra@i node o! a% 9aeda and its
%o(a% a%%ies) in(%udin' the 1s%ami( State o! 1ra@) #now their !uture in 1ra@ is %imited !or
!our reasons: there is a Shiite maDorit in the (ountrK the se(tarian stri!e the Dihadists
tri''ered remains within a((e&ta"%e %eve%sK Sunnis have turned a'ainst them en masseK
and a +*S*-1ranian understandin' is ma#in' &ro'ress* There!ore) whi%e stirrin' the 1ra@
&ot as mu(h as &ossi"%e) the a%so must "e wor#in' on an e5it strate') whi(h entai%s
re%o(atin' to other (ountries*
The avai%a"%e o&tions in(%ude Saudi Ara"ia) Sria) Jordan) and Kuwait ? a%% o!
whi(h to one e5tent or another !a(i%itated the !%ow o! Dihadists into 1ra@* 1n the (ase o! the
Saudis) Jordanians and Kuwaitis) it was meant to (ounter the rise o! the Shia and 1ran
a!ter the (o%%a&se o! the Baathist re'ime* ;owever) the states a%was intended this !%ow to
"e one-wa) and wou%d not want to see a re&eat o! what ha&&ened a!ter the Soviets %e!t
A!'hanistan and the 1s%amist mi%itants returned to their home (ountries to wrea# havo(*
But the @uestion is whether these states (an &revent the Dihadists !rom returnin'*
Com&%i(atin' this issue is the desire on the &art o! the Ara" states Hwith the
e5(e&tion o! SriaI to &revent 1ran !rom (onso%idatin' its in!%uen(e in 1ra@) es&e(ia%%
a!ter the re(ent +*S* /ationa% 1nte%%i'en(e 0stimate* That re&ort wi%% %i#e% %ead to an
understandin' "etween the +nited States and 1ran ? one that wou%d institutiona%i,e
Shiite dominan(e in 1ra@) somethin' ever Sunni Ara" state !ears*
-hi%e the Ara" states do not want mi%itants to o&erate on their res&e(tive soi%s)
the do want to harness them as a too% to (ounter 1ran and the Shia* Simi%ar to the
4a#istanis am"iva%ent ta#e on Dihadists) the Ara"s ? es&e(ia%% the Saudis ? are unsure
how to a(hieve "oth 'oa%s*
This is a ver serious di%emma !or the Saudis) who are (au'ht "etween a ro(# and
a hard &%a(e ? not Dust at the state %eve%* 0ven within so(iet) the tu' o! war "etween
those (a%%in' !or re!orms and those trin' to %imit the re!orms is ma#in' it more di!!i(u%t
to determine a &osition on dea%in' with the Dihadists* For now) "oth Riadh and 1s%ama"ad
must determine how to #ee& the ro'ue e%ements se&arate !rom those the sti%% (an (ontro%*
There a%so are some in "oth states who are (a%%in' !or a (om&%ete end to the !%irtation with
the Dihadists*
The Srian 'overnment a%so has "een ma#in' use o! Dihadists in the Fe"anese
(onte5t) thou'h 3amas(us wi%% have a hard time (oo&eratin' with the +nited States and
1ran on 1ra@ whi%e (ontinuin' to de&%o Sunni 1s%amist mi%itants in Fe"anon* 1n the
&ro(ess) the 'overnment is %i#e% to 'et "urned at home*
Jihadists !%eein' 1ra@ a%so (ou%d see# to re%o(ate their o&erations to
A!'hanistanP4a#istan) Centra% Asia or /orth A!ri(a* 9uite a !ew Fi"ans and A%'erians
went to !i'ht in 1ra@) !or e5am&%e* The return o! these Dihadists) however) (ou%d &ose a
threat to on'oin' moves " Tri&o%i and A%'iers to o&en u& their res&e(tive ener' se(tors
!or -estern investment* The !ear o! atta(#s) insta"i%it and e(onomi( dama'e wi%% &rom&t
man Ara"PMus%im states to tr to "%o(# the !%ow o! !%eein' !i'hters !rom 1ra@*
1t is too ear% to sa whether these e!!orts wi%% su((eed* ;owever) in the &ost-AP88
'%o"a% se(urit environment ? whi(h %imits the Dihadists. !reedom o! movement ? these
re%o(ations wi%% not rise u& to the %eve%s seen !rom A!'hanistan in 8AGA or even in 6778*
A%'eria: Atta(# Raises 9uestions A"out -esternersM Sa!et
5ec) 11, 2007
Ten +*/* &ersonne% were amon' the (asua%ties 3e(* 88 in one o! the two
"om"in's that stru(# the A%'erian (a&ita% o! A%'iers* Thus !ar) A%'erian Dihadists. main
tar'ets have "een 'overnment !a(i%ities and &ersonne%) es&e(ia%% se(urit !or(es* The
3e(* 88 atta(#) however) was desi'ned to hit -estern insta%%ations* This (a%%s into
@uestion the (ountr.s sa!et !or -esterners and the se(urit !or(es. (a&a"i%ities in
(ontainin' the insur'en() whi(h a&&ears to "e !air% resistant to "oth interna% and
e5terna% threats*
The (urrent situation with the 1s%amist mi%itan( needs to "e &%a(ed in the (onte5t
o! the (ir(umstan(es in A%'eria when it (eased "ein' a sin'%e-&art state and "e(ame one
where mu%ti&%e &o%iti(a% !or(es are stru''%in' !or &ower* 1n the a!termath o! the 8AA7-
8AA8 e%e(tora% e5&eriment ? whi(h was ha%ted "e(ause the (ountr.s main 1s%amist
movement) the Front 1s%ami@ue de Sa%ut) was s%ated to win " %ands%ide ? the (ountr
saw the rise o! a maDor 1s%amist insur'en(* But " the end o! the de(ade the insur'en(
had %ost steamK interna% s(hisms (reated at %east three di!!erent mi%itant 'rou&s) and the
mi%itar-dominated state was a"%e to under(ut the mi%itan( throu'h a mi5ture o! tou'h
(ra(#downs and amnest o!!ers*
Sin(e then) the insur'en( %ar'e% has "een (ontained des&ite the re(ent
resur'en(e in the wa#e o! the esta"%ishment o! the re'iona% node o! a% 9aeda) when
A%'eria.s main 1s%amist mi%itant 'rou& the Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at
Doined !or(es with its (ounter&arts in nei'h"orin' Moro((o) Tunisia) and Fi"a to !orm
the a% 9aeda Or'ani,ation !or the Countries o! the Ara" Ma'hre" HA9CAMI* This
or'ani,ationa% restru(turin' has a%%owed the mi%itants to im&rove their a"i%ities to sta'e
atta(#s) es&e(ia%% in terms o! !re@uen(* ;owever) the in(rease in atta(#s has not
(han'ed the rea%it on the 'round*
This is &art% "e(ause o! the varian(e in strate'i( tar'etin' 'uidan(e the a% 9aeda
a&e5 %eadershi& has o!!ered and the re'iona% (ommanders. a"i%ities to &ut it into &ra(ti(e
%o(a%%* This is seen not on% in an a&&arent s&%it in A9CAM a"out tar'etin' !ormer re"e%
%eaders "ut a%so in A9CAM.s (ontinued em&hasis on atta(#in' se(urit !or(es rather than
more strate'i( tar'ets that wou%d harm -estern interests) su(h as A%'eria.s ener'
in!rastru(ture* -hereas a% 9aeda.s a&e5 %eadershi& !u%% understands the ne(essit o!
maintainin' a %o(a% su&&ort "ase) the %o(a% (ommanders (an "e shortsi'hted in their 'oa%s
" !o(usin' their !i'ht on the near enem and thus !ai%in' to see the Dihadist movement.s
%ar'er vision* This %atest atta(# re&resents a (om&romise o! sorts "etween the two views)
"e(ause it stru(# "oth se(urit !or(es and !orei'ners*
The &ro"%ems asso(iated with 1s%amism and Dihadism in A%'eria are !ar !rom "ein'
reso%ved) "ut the "ottom %ine is that the insur'en( is a se(urit issue as o&&osed to one
that threatens &o%iti(a% sta"i%it* Mu(h o! this is "e(ause the mi%itar) whi(h dominates the
state) has 'ained a %ot o! e5&erien(e in dea%in' with 1s%amist mi%itants in the %ast 8B ears*
That said) the &er(e&tions o! se(urit (an sha&e the "ehavior o! -esterners see#in' to do
"usiness in the (ountr*
Be(ause their e(onom de&ends heavi% on ener') A%'erians are ver sensitive to
-estern &er(e&tions ? es&e(ia%% when A%'iers is trin' to &ush ahead with deve%o&ment
&roDe(ts and dea%s with internationa% !irms* There!ore) the state wi%% 'ive the se(urit o!
!orei'ners and the ener' se(tor &riorit over other areas* Furthermore) most o! the
-estern !irms are %o(ated out in the desert near the ener' !ie%ds in the South* Those
areas are iso%ated and "etter se(ured) and there are ver !ew atta(#s out there*
A%'eria.s mi%itan( &ro"%em is un%i#e% to su"side antime soon) es&e(ia%% with
the &otentia% !or mi%itants with e5&erien(e in 1ra@ to re%o(ate to the /orth A!ri(an theater*
4eriodi( atta(#s (an "e e5&e(ted ? and there is a &otentia% !or atta(#s e%sewhere in /orth
A!ri(a) su(h as Moro((o ? "ut a si'ni!i(ant deterioration in the se(urit and &o%iti(a%
(onditions is un%i#e%*
+*S*: The Ro%e and Fimitations o! the M3ar# -e"M 1n Jihadist Trainin'
5ec) 11, 2007
Se(urit e5&erts have warned in re(ent wee#s that -estern 'overnments have
(eded (ontro% o! the 1nternet to Dihadists) the -or%d Tri"une re&orted 3e(* 87* 1n a
(on!eren(e on 1nternet se(urit at 2erman.s Federa% 4o%i(e O!!i(e head@uarters /ov* 68)
-estern e5&erts ar'ued that the +nited States and a num"er o! 0+ (ountries have !ai%ed
to understand the e!!i(a( o! &ro-a% 9aeda -e" sites ? or the =3ar# -e"> ? to re(ruit
and train new o&eratives) and have written o!! su(h -e" sites as &ro&a'anda*
A((ordin' to these -estern e5&erts) a% 9aeda has "een so su((ess!u% in its
e5&%oitation o! the 1nternet that it has (%osed trainin' (am&s in A!'hanistan) thou'h this
somewhat understates the ro%e o! the +*S* mi%itar in (%osin' the (am&s* 2a"rie%
-eimann) a &ro!essor in 1srae% and 2erman) to%d the (on!eren(e that a% 9aeda has made
a shi!t and is now a"%e to indo(trinate) train and mo"i%i,e new re(ruits and turn them into
Dihadist mi%itants via &ra(ti(a% -e" sites that i%%ustrate how to hand%e wea&ons) (arr out
#idna&&in's and ma#e "om"s* The 1nternet ? s&e(i!i(a%% 2oo'%e 0arth ? has a%so
redu(ed Dihadists. need !or tar'et re(onnaissan(e* A%thou'h the 1nternet has "een a "oon
!or 'rassroots (e%%s in s&readin' their ideo%o' and re(ruitin' new a(o%tes) the -e" has
some serious %imitations as a terrorism ena"%er* Some thin's are ver di!!i(u%t to
a((om&%ish on%ine ? name%) a"sor"in' te(hni(a% in!ormation and the trade(ra!t o!
terrorism and a&&%in' it to a rea%-wor%d situation) &arti(u%ar% in a dan'erous
environment*
Sin(e AP88) "%o's) (hat rooms and -e" sites have e5&erien(ed an in(rease in
&o&u%arit amon' Dihadists* O!ten) these Dihadist =("erwarriors> ? usua%% in their %ate
teens or ear% 67s ? Doin or !orm 'rassroots (e%%s and "e(ome =a% 9aeda E*7 or :*7>
o&eratives*
;owever) the a&&%i(ation o! te(hni(a% s#i%%s H"om"-ma#in') tar'etin') and
de&%omentI o!ten re@uires su"t%e and (om&%e5 a"i%ities that one (annot &er!e(t sim&% "
readin' a"out them* 1t is @uite di!!i(u%t to !o%%ow written instru(tions and "ui%d a &er!e(t%
!un(tionin' im&rovised e5&%osive devi(e !rom s(rat(hK as with an s(ienti!i( endeavor)
tria% and error and testin' in the rea% wor%d usua%% are re@uired* Bom"-ma#in' is a ta%ent
"est %earned !rom an e5&erien(ed tea(her Hand man &otentia% tea(hers have "%own
themse%ves u& in &ursuit o! e5&ert-%eve% s#i%%sI* -ithout su(h a tea(her and hands-on
e5&erien(e) there is a stee& %earnin' (urve) and mu(h tria% and error is re@uired*
Additiona%%) trade(ra!t ? those intuitive s#i%%s needed to sustain se(re( and
o&erations in a hosti%e environment ? are essentia% to "oth the individua% Dihadist and his
networ#* ;istor has shown re&eated% that ? even when &reo&erationa% &%annin' and
other a(tivities have "e'un in ("ers&a(e ? as a matter o! routine) Dihadists (ondu(t
tar'et survei%%an(e in the &hsi(a% wor%d and (arr out dr runs when &ossi"%e* -hi%e
2oo'%e 0arth mi'ht "e an e!!i(ient too% !or ma&&in' and (oordinatin' an atta(#) it does
not ne'ate the need !or &reo&erationa% survei%%an(e* Jihadists re(o'ni,e) as do %aw
en!or(ement a'ents) that however detai%ed a &i(ture o! a tar'et mi'ht a&&ear on a -e"
site) it is an in(om&%ete sna&shot o! rea%it that has "een !ro,en in time* Su((ess!u%
atta(#s de&end on #now%ed'e o! %ar'e swathes o! terrain) se(urit routines and other
detai%s that (annot "e o"tained !rom videos or &hoto'ra&hs*
A%thou'h these -e" sites are not 'oin' to &rodu(e su&er-Dihadists) the (ha%%en'e
remains !or %aw en!or(ement a'en(ies to identi! and remove dan'erous sites @ui(#% and
to deve%o& -e" monitorin' &ro'rams in an attem&t to tra(# those usin' them as &art o!
(ounterterrorism e!!orts* As these sites &ro%i!erate) so does the attention devoted to them*
1t is im&ortant to note that visitin' su(h -e" sites is an o&erationa% se(urit ha,ard that
(an a%%ow (ounterterrorism !or(es to identi! &otentia% mi%itants and (%ose in on them) as
the did in Canada in the summer o! 6776 and in At%anta "e!ore that*
A% 9aeda Or'ani,ation !or the Countries o! the Ara" Ma'hre":
A Time%ine o! Atta(#s
5ec) 11, 2007
Be%ow is a none5haustive %ist o! atta(#s that !o%%owed the 677: de(%aration o! war
on !orei'n &eo&%e and (om&anies " A%'eria.s %eadin' 1s%ami( mi%itant or'ani,ation) the
Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at H2S4CI) whi(h swore its a%%e'ian(e to a% 9aeda
and "e(ame !orma%% #nown as the a% 9aeda Or'ani,ation !or the Countries o! the Ara"
Ma'hre" in Se&tem"er 6776*
=886
Mar(h 87: A"denna(er A"ou ;a!s) an imam !rom 0% ;arra(h) is assassinated !or
a%%e'ed (o%%a"oration with the A%'erian se(urit servi(esK 2S4C (%aims
res&onsi"i%it*
Mar(h 86: 2unmen am"ush two am"u%an(es trave%in' a%on' the Medea-
Berroua'hia road* 0i'ht &eo&%e die and two are wounded* 2S4C is sus&e(ted in
the atta(#*
Ma 8G: Two "om"s e5&%ode) #i%%in' two so%diers and woundin' 8E &eo&%e)
in(%udin' !our so%diers) in eastern A%'eria*
June 6: 2S4C insur'ents am"ush an A%'erian mi%itar (onvo in eastern A%'eria*
Ten so%diers are #i%%ed and :5 are wounded*
June 68: A (ar "om" inDures 88 &eo&%e and dama'es the main e%e(tri(it &%ant in
the (a&ita%) A%'iersK 2S4C (%aims res&onsi"i%it*
Au'* 66: A "om" e5&%odes outside Boumerdes* /o (asua%ties are re&ortedK 2S4C
is sus&e(ted in the atta(#*
Se&t* 67: 2S4C insur'ents #i%% !our &eo&%e at a road"%o(# set u& " mi%itants near
the vi%%a'e o! Ka%ous) in Bouira &rovin(e) a"out B5 mi%es southeast o! A%'iers*
Se&t* 6A: 2S4C insur'ents atta(# a (ivi% de!ense &ost near the (it o! Ain 3e!%a)
a"out B7 mi%es west o! A%'iers) #i%%in' si5 (ivi% de!ense !or(e so%diers*
O(t* 66: 2S4C insur'ents are sus&e(ted o! an atta(# a'ainst a vehi(%e near Medea)
57 mi%es south o! A%'iers) (arrin' !ans to a !oot"a%% mat(h in A%'iers* Si5teen
&eo&%e die in the atta(#*
3e(* 8E: 2S4C insur'ents shoot an individua% dead at &oint-"%an# ran'e in Corso*
2S4C.s motives are un#nown*
=88>
Jan* B: A 2S4C atta(# a'ainst a mi%itar (onvo at Bis#ra #i%%s 8E so%diers and
!ive (ivi%ians*
A&ri% A: 2S4C is sus&e(ted o! #i%%in' 8: &eo&%e at a !a#e road"%o(# in Far"aa)
a"out 8G mi%es south o! A%'iers*
Ma 85: 2S4C insur'ents are sus&e(ted o! am"ushin' an arm (onvo in the
re'ion o! Khen(he%a and #i%%in' 86 so%diers*
June 5: An atta(# a'ainst a mi%itar "ase in nei'h"orin' Mauritania on the
Mauritania-A%'eria "order #i%%s 85 so%diersK 2S4C is thou'ht to "e invo%ved*
June A: An e5&%osive devi(e #i%%s 8E %o(a% 'overnment 'uards in a tru(# in
A%'eria.s Msi%a re'ion) southeast o! A%'iersK 2S4C is sus&e(ted*
June 8E: A roadside e5&%osion 6B mi%es west o! Ti&a,a #i%%s three so%diers and two
(ivi%ians) and wounds !ive others* The tar'et was a 'overnment (onvo
trans&ortin' e5am &a&ersK no sus&e(ts are #nown*
June 8G: A homemade "om" e5&%odes whi%e &o%i(e sear(h the 0%-3Der area* The
e5&%osion #i%%s the head o! the 3De%!a Judi(ia% 4o%i(e Mo"i%e Bri'ade* A 'rou&
asso(iated with 2S4C is sus&e(ted*
Ju% 8G: Five &o%i(e o!!i(ers and !orest ran'ers !i'htin' a !orest !ire are #i%%ed
when their vehi(%e (omes under !ire in the Ain 3e!%a re'ion) B5 mi%es !rom
A%'iers* 2S4C is sus&e(ted*
Se&t* 8: The maor o! Amma% is #i%%ed " insur'ents a%i'ned with the 2S4C*
Se&t* 8:: Three so%diers and a &o%i(e o!!i(er are #i%%ed in Boumerdes) E8 mi%es
east o! A%'iers* 2S4C is sus&e(ted*
Se&t* 86: +n#nown assai%ants %aun(h an atta(# in Siouane) A mi%es !rom Ou%ed
Attia* The assai%ants s%it the throats o! two e%der% men and en'a'e se(urit !or(es
in a 'un!i'ht) #i%%in' two and woundin' !our*
Se&t* 66: Ten &eo&%e) in(%udin' seven so%diers) are #i%%ed in two atta(#s in eastern
A%'eria* +nidenti!ied 1s%ami( mi%itants are sus&e(ted*
Se&t* 65: Five se(urit !or(es mem"ers are #i%%ed and !ive are wounded in atta(#s
attri"uted to mi%itants in the Aid 3e!%a re'ion) a"out 877 mi%es west o! A%'iersK in
Re"ahia) near Saida) 66B mi%es southeast o! A%'iersK and in the Boumerdes re'ion)
E8 mi%es east o! A%'iers* +nidenti!ied 1s%ami( mi%itants are sus&e(ted*
=88?
A&ri% B: Thirteen &eo&%e are #i%%ed when 2S4C insur'ents am"ush a 'overnment
(onvo in the desert re'ion o! 2hardia) :E5 mi%es south o! A%'iers) tar'etin'
(ustoms a'ents on their wa to a seminar in Ouar'%a*
A&ri% 66: A sui(ide "om"er atta(#s the "ase o! the Mu%tinationa% For(es and
O"servers at a%-Jura) woundin' two mem"ers o! the !or(e* /asser Khamis a%-
Ma%%ahi) the %eader o! Sinai-"ased e5tremists) is identi!ied as the mastermind
"ehind the &%ot*
June 67: Five (ivi%ians are #i%%ed in !i'htin' "etween A%'erian troo&s and
insur'ents in Khen(he%a* 2S4C is "e%ieved to "e res&onsi"%e !or the atta(#*
June 68: Seven so%diers are #i%%ed in !i'htin' with insur'ents in 2h,erwa%K 2S4C
is sus&e(ted*
Ju% 86: Five muni(i&a% 'uards are #i%%ed in an am"ush in the &rovin(e o! Ti&asaK
2S4C is sus&e(ted*
Ju% 67: 2S4C insur'ents are sus&e(ted o! #i%%in' !our 'overnment muni(i&a%
'uards in the mountainous area in Ain 3e!%a &rovin(e) AE mi%es southwest o!
A%'iers*
Au'* 6A: A road"%o(# manned " &o%i(e in the (it o! 0%-Kseur is atta(#ed "
insur'ents "e%ieved to "e asso(iated with 2S4C* Two &o%i(emen and one (ivi%ian
are #i%%ed*
Se&tem"er 6776: 2S4C o!!i(ia%% swears a%%e'ian(e to a% 9aeda*
Se&t* 6: Si5 so%diers are #i%%ed in se&arate (%ashes ? !our die on the road in the
Ade#ar !orest) 867 mi%es east o! A%'iers) and two in an am"ush in the Ou%ed
;am,a area near Medea) 57 mi%es south o! A%'iers* 2S4C is sus&e(ted*
O(t* 8A: An e5&%osive devi(e detonates at a &o%i(e station in 0% ;arra(h) an
eastern su"ur" o! A%'iers* Se&arate%) a !ue% (istern "e%on'in' to the Fren(h
(om&an Ra,e% e5&%odes in Fa#hdaria* 2S4C is sus&e(ted in "oth atta(#s*
O(t* 6A: /ear-simu%taneous tru(# "om" atta(#s tar'et two A%'erian &o%i(e stations
in Re'haia and 3er'ana) 86 mi%es east o! A%'iers* 2S4C is sus&e(ted*
/ov* E: Fi!teen mi%itants am"ush an arm &atro% in the Ain 3e!%a re'ion) #i%%in'
ei'ht so%diers* The 0% Farou# arm o! the 2S4C is res&onsi"%e*
/ov* A: Seven mem"ers o! A%'eria.s se(urit !or(es are #i%%ed and 8E are wounded
in an am"ush durin' a (%eanu& o&eration in the Be'asse !orest) in the Bouira
re'ion* 2S4C insur'ents are res&onsi"%e*
/ov* 67: The 2S4C is instru(ted to !orm a uni!ied (ommand with Moro((o.s
1s%ami( Com"atant 2rou&) Fi"a.s 1s%ami( Fi'htin' 2rou& and severa% Tunisian
'rou&s ? most nota"% the Tunisian Com"atant 2rou&* The new or'ani,ation
re&orted% wi%% "e (a%%ed The +nion o! the Ara" Ma'hre"*
/ov* 68: 2S4C shoots down a mi%itar he%i(o&ter) #i%%in' three so%diers and two
%o(a% 'uards*
3e(* 87: Two mini"uses (arrin' e5&atriate em&%oees o! the ;a%%i"urton
su"sidiar Brown and Root-Condor and the A%'erian Sonatra(h oi% (om&an are
tar'eted in a "om" and 'un atta(# at Bou(haoui) a western su"ur" o! A%'iers* One
A%'erian and one Fe"anese die) and nine !orei'ners are wounded* 2S4C (%aims
res&onsi"i%it*
=88@
Januar 677B: The 2S4C !orma%% (han'es its name to the a% 9aeda Or'ani,ation
!or the Countries o! the Ara" Ma'hre" HA9CAMI a!ter re(eivin' =&ermission>
!rom Osama "in Faden*
Jan* 6:: A roadside "om" e5&%odes "eneath a mi%itar vehi(%e in eastern A%'eria)
#i%%in' a so%dier and woundin' ei'ht* A9CAM is res&onsi"%e*
Fe"* 6: The maor o! Ben(houd is assassinated outside his home* /o 'rou&
(%aims res&onsi"i%it) "ut A9CAM o&erates in the area*
Fe"* 86: Seven "om"s e5&%ode near% simu%taneous% east o! A%'iers) #i%%in' si5
&eo&%e) in(%udin' two &o%i(e o!!i(ers) and inDurin' 8E) in(%udin' 87 se(urit
'uards* Five o! the "om"s were &%a(ed in (ars* A9CAM (%aims res&onsi"i%it*
Mar(h E: A roadside "om" e5&%odes near a Russian (onvo* Seven em&%oees o!
the Strotrans'a, (om&an dieK !our are RussianP+#rainian and three are
A%'erian* A9CAM (%aims res&onsi"i%it*
A&ri% 88: Sui(ide "om"in's in the A%'erian (a&ita% re&orted% #i%% at %east 8B
&eo&%e*
Ma 8E: An un#nown 'rou& atta(#s a &o%i(e tar'et in Constantine* The atta(#ers
&%ant a ma#eshi!t "om" at a &o%i(e (he(#&oint* The "%ast #i%%s a &o%i(e o!!i(er and
wounds two others*
Ju% 5: The A%'erian 'overnor o! Ti,i Ou,ou survives a roadside "om" atta(#
tar'etin' his (ar* The "om" is &%anted in a draina'e &i&e a%on' a %o(a% hi'hwa* A
&o%i(eman in a se&arate (ar is wounded* A9CAM is sus&e(ted*
Ju% 88: A sui(ide "om"er detonates at a mi%itar "arra(#s) #i%%in' himse%! and
ei'ht others in the Ka"%ie re'ion* A9CAM is sus&e(ted*
Ju% 67: /ine rai%road (ars derai% when A9CAM atta(#s a !ue% !rei'ht train A
mi%es southeast o! Boumerdes*
Au'* 8:: A (ar "om"in' in the eastern Far"a su"ur" o! A%'eria.s (a&ita%) A%'iers)
(riti(a%% inDures Musta!a Kerta%i) a !ormer 1s%amist %eader who renoun(ed
vio%en(e in 8AAA*
Se&t* 6: A sui(ide atta(# tar'etin' 4resident A"de%a,i, Boute!%i#a.s (onvo in the
eastern town o! Batna #i%%s 66 &eo&%e and wounds more than 877* A9CAM is
thou'ht to "e res&onsi"%e*
Se&t* G: A sui(ide atta(# a'ainst a (oast 'uard "arra(#s at 3e%%s) east o! A%'iers)
%eaves E7 &eo&%e dead and :7 wounded* A9CAM is res&onsi"%e*
Se&t* 68: A sui(ide "om"er rams a (ar !i%%ed with e5&%osives into a (onvo east o!
A%'iers) woundin' two Fren(h en'ineers and an 1ta%ian) on% hours a!ter a% 9aeda
(a%%s !or an o!!ensive a'ainst Fren(h tar'ets*
/ov* 87: A9CAM insur'ents dama'e a &%ane durin' an atta(# at 3Danet air&ort in
!ar southeastern A%'eriaK the terrorists es(a&e a(ross the "order into /i'er*
3e(* 88: Two "om" atta(#s) one tar'etin' the +*/* re!u'ee a'en() in A%'iers #i%%
at %east 56 &eo&%e) with !orei'ners amon' the (asua%ties*
A% 9aeda in 677G: The Stru''%e !or Re%evan(e
5ec) 19, 2007
On 3e(* 86) a% 9aeda.s As-Saha" media "ran(h re%eased a AB-minute video
messa'e !rom a% 9aeda se(ond-in-(ommand Aman a%-Jawahiri* 1n the messa'e) tit%ed
=A Review o! 0vents)> a%-Jawahiri readdressed a num"er o! his !avorite to&i(s at %en'th*
This video a&&eared Dust two das a!ter As-Saha" re%eased a 67-minute a%-
Jawahiri messa'e tit%ed =Anna&o%is ? The Treason*> 1n that messa'e) a%-Jawahiri
s&ea#s on audio ta&e whi%e a sti%% &hoto'ra&h o! him is dis&%aed over a monta'e o!
&hotos !rom the &ea(e (on!eren(e in Anna&o%is) Md* As the tit%e im&%ies) a%-Jawahiri
(riti(i,es the (on!eren(e*
A%thou'h the 3e(* 8: re%ease a&&eared !irst) it o"vious% was re(orded a!ter the
3e(* 86 video* 2iven the (ontent o! the 3e(* 8: messa'e) it most %i#e% was re(orded
short% a!ter the /ov* 6B Anna&o%is (on!eren(e and "e!ore the 3e(* 88 twin "om"in's in
A%'eria* The two %atest re%eases are interre%ated) however) 'iven that the sti%% &hoto o! a%-
Jawahiri used in the 3e(* 8: messa'e a&&ears to have "een (a&tured !rom the video
re%eased two das %ater*
A!ter havin' "een su"De(ted to two hours o! a%-Jawahiri o&inions in Dust two das)
we (annot he%& "ut wonder whether anone e%se is %istenin' to this 'u ? and) i! so)
wh< This @uestion is &arti(u%ar% a&&ro&riate now) as we (ome to the time o! the ear
when we traditiona%% &re&are our annua% !ore(ast on a% 9aeda* As we %oo# ahead to
677G) the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi& (%ear% is stru''%in' to remain re%evant in the
ideo%o'i(a% rea%m) a dauntin' tas# !or an or'ani,ation that has "een rendered
'eo&o%iti(a%% and strate'i(a%% im&otent on the &hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d*
Devolu+)o0
The theme o! our 677B a% 9aeda !ore(ast was the (ontinuation o! the
metamor&hosis o! a% 9aeda !rom a sma%%er (ore 'rou& o! &ro!essiona% o&eratives into an
o&erationa% mode% that en(oura'es inde&endent ='rassroots> Dihadists to (ondu(t atta(#s)
or into a mode% in whi(h a% 9aeda &rovides the o&erationa% (ommanders who or'ani,e
'rassroots (e%%s* -e re!erred to this shi!t as devo%ution "e(ause it si'ni!ied a return to a%
9aeda.s &re-AP88 mode%*
-e noted that the shi!t 'ave a% 9aeda =the movement> a "roader 'eo'ra&hi( and
o&erationa% rea(h than a% 9aeda =the 'rou&)> "ut we a%so said that this %ar'er) dis&ersed
'rou& o! a(tors %a(#ed the o&erationa% de&th and e5&ertise o! the (ore 'rou& and its we%%-
trained terrorist (adre*
Foo#in' "a(# at the su((ess!u%) attem&ted and thwarted atta(#s in 677B) this
&redi(tion was %ar'e% on-tar'et* The hi'h-&ro!i%e atta(#s and thwarted atta(#s were
&%otted " 'rassroots 'rou&s su(h as the one res&onsi"%e !or the atta(#s in Fondon and
2%as'ow) S(ot%and) or " re'iona% a!!i%iates su(h as a% 9aeda.s !ran(hise in A%'eria) a%
9aeda in the 1s%ami( Ma'hre" HA91MI* The (ore a% 9aeda 'rou& on(e a'ain !ai%ed to
(ondu(t an atta(#s*
British authorities have indi(ated that the men res&onsi"%e !or the !ai%ed Fondon
and 2%as'ow attem&ts were %in#ed in some wa to a% 9aeda in 1ra@) thou'h an su(h
%in#s must have "een !air% in(onse@uentia%* The a% 9aeda !ran(hise in 1ra@ has (ondu(ted
hundreds o! su((ess!u% "om"in's and has a (onsidera"%e amount o! e5&erien(e in
trade(ra!t and "om"ma#in') whi%e the Fondon and 2%as'ow attem&ts showed a de(ided
%a(# o! trade(ra!t and "om"ma#in' s#i%%s*
"e5)o0al Fra0c,)ses
The a% 9aeda nodes in 0'&t) the Sinai 4eninsu%a and 1ndonesia were a%% @uiet this
ear* The 0'&tian node has not (arried out a su((ess!u% atta(# sin(e announ(in' its
a%%e'ian(e to a% 9aeda in Au'ust 6776* Jemaah 1s%amiah) a% 9aeda.s 1ndonesian
!ran(hise) has not (ondu(ted a su((ess!u% atta(# sin(e the O(to"er 6775 Ba%i "om"in')
and the Sinai node) Tawhid wa a%-Jihad) did not (ondu(t an atta(#s in 677B* 1ts %ast
atta(# was in A&ri% 6776*
The Saudi !ran(hise (ondu(ted on% one su((ess!u% o&eration in 677B) a sma%%-
arms atta(# a'ainst a 'rou& o! Fren(h and Be%'ian nationa%s &i(ni(#in' near Medina)
whi(h resu%ted in the deaths o! !our Fren(hmen* This is a !ar (r !rom the &ea# o! its
o&erationa% a(tivities durin' the summer o! 677:* The Cemen node a%so (ondu(ted one
atta(#) as it did in 6776) a Ju% 6 sui(ide (ar "om"in' a'ainst a tourist (onvo that
resu%ted in the deaths o! ei'ht S&aniards* The Moro((an e%ement o! A91M attem&ted to
(arr out atta(#s in Mar(h and A&ri%) thou'h the 'rou&.s ine&t ta(ti(s and inade@uate
&%annin' resu%ted in the deaths o! more sui(ide "om"ers than vi(tims*
These re'iona% nodes %ar'e% have "een "rou'ht under (ontro% " a series o!
su((ess!u% (am&ai'ns a'ainst them* 4o%i(e o&erations in Saudi Ara"ia) the Sinai and
1ndonesia have &rovided some eviden(e that the 'rou&s have "een trin' to re'rou& and
re!it* There!ore) the (am&ai'ns a'ainst these re'iona% nodes wi%% need to remain in &%a(e
!or the !oreseea"%e !uture to ensure that these or'ani,ations do not re(onstitute
themse%ves and resume o&erations*
-e noted in our 677B !ore(ast that A91M had not et &roven itse%!* ;owever) the
series o! atta(#s " A91M this ear demonstrated that the 'rou& is resour(e!u% and
resi%ient) even in the !a(e o! A%'erian 'overnment o&erations and ideo%o'i(a% divisions* 1n
!a(t) A91M was the most &ro%i!i( and dead% 'rou& in 677B outside o! the a(tive war
,ones o! 1ra@ and A!'hanistan* -ith a% 9aeda in 1ra@ !a(in' serious &ro"%ems) A91M is in
man was (arrin' the tor(h !or the Dihadist movement* -ith other re'iona% nodes
seemin'% under (ontro%) the +*S* and other 'overnments now (an &a more attention to
A91M* Throu'hout the (omin' ear) the A%'erian 'overnment %i#e% wi%% re(eive mu(h
more assistan(e !rom the +nited States and its a%%ies in its e!!orts to dismant%e the 'rou&*
A91M ? the !ormer Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at H2S4CI ? has e5isted
sin(e the ear% 8AA7s and its dedi(ated (adre has survived man attem&ts to e%iminate it
? thou'h it %i#e% wi%% "e &ressed hard over the ne5t ear*
1n a /ov* E audio messa'e) a%-Jawahiri said the Fi"an 1s%ami( Fi'htin' 2rou&
HF1F2I had !orma%% Doined the a% 9aeda networ#* This (ame as no rea% sur&rise) 'iven
that mem"ers o! the 'rou& have %on' "een (%ose to Osama "in Faden) and a% 9aeda has a
%ar'e num"er o! Fi"an (adre) in(%udin' A"u Caha a%-Fi"i) Anas a%-Fi"i and A"u FaraD
a%-Fi"i Hwho re&orted% is "ein' he%d " +*S* !or(es at 2uantanamo Ba) Cu"a*I The
F1F2-a% 9aeda %in# "e(ame a&&arent in Se&tem"er 6778) when the +*S* 'overnment
identi!ied the F1F2 as a s&e(ia%% desi'nated terrorist entit Ha%on' with the 2S4C and
others*I
A%thou'h Fi"ans have &%aed a %ar'e ro%e in a% 9aeda and the '%o"a% Dihadist
movement) the F1F2 itse%! has "een una"%e to (ondu(t an si'ni!i(ant atta(#s*
;istori(a%%) Fi"an se(urit !or(es have #e&t the F1F2 in (he(# to the &oint that most
hi'h-&ro!i%e Fi"an Dihadists o&erate outside Fi"a ? un%i#e the A91M %eadershi&) whi(h
o&erates within A%'eria* 1t wi%% "e im&ortant to wat(h this new node to see whether it (an
ram& u& its (a&a"i%ities to (ondu(t meanin'!u% o&erations inside Fi"a) or even in other
(ountries where the 'rou& has a &resen(e ? thou'h we dou"t it wi%% "e a"%e to &ose a
serious threat to the Fi"an re'ime*
Another re%ative% new Dihadist &resen(e a&&eared on the radar s(reen Fe"* 8E)
when the Fatah a%-1s%am 'rou& "om"ed two "uses in the Fe"anese Christian en(%ave o!
Ain A%a@) #i%%in' three &eo&%e* Fo%%owin' the Fe"anese arm.s e!!orts to arrest those
'rou& mem"ers "e%ieved res&onsi"%e !or the "om"in') the 'rou& ho%ed u& in the /ahr e%-
Bared re!u'ee (am& in northern Fe"anon) where it endured a sie'e " the Fe"anese arm
that "e'an in Mar(h and %asted unti% ear% Se&tem"er* Sha#er a%-A"ssi) the %eader o! Fatah
a%-1s%am) is said to have %in#s to !ormer a% 9aeda in 1ra@ %eader A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi*
A%on' with a%-Jar@awi) a%-A"ssi was senten(ed to death in Jordan !or his sus&e(ted
invo%vement in the 6776 #i%%in' o! +*S* di&%omat Fauren(e Fo%e in Amman* ;e served a
three-ear Dai% senten(e in Sria and then moved into /ahr e%-Bared to esta"%ish Fatah a%-
1s%am) whi(h is "e%ieved to "e (ontro%%ed " Srian inte%%i'en(e* -hi%e Fatah a%-1s%am %ost
man o! its !i'hters durin' the !ive-month sie'e) we have re(eived inte%%i'en(e re&orts
su''estin' that the Srians are he%&in' the 'rou& re(over* The inte%%i'en(e a%so su''ests
that the more the Srians (oo&erate with +*S* o"De(tives in 1ra@) the more the wi%% &ress
the use o! their Dihadist &ro5ies in Fe"anon* 1n &ursuin' su(h a (ourse) the Srians are
&%ain' with !ire) whi(h ma we%% (ome to haunt them) as it has the Saudis and
4a#istanis*
Ira;/s o0+r)bu+)o0
0vents in 1ra@ %i#e% wi%% have a si'ni!i(ant im&a(t on the '%o"a% Dihadist
movement in the (omin' ear* Sin(e the death o! a%-Jar@awi) a% 9aeda in 1ra@.s
o&erationa% a"i%it steadi% has de(%ined* Furthermore) the or'ani,ation a&&ears to "e
%osin' its su&&ort amon' the 1ra@i Sunnis and a&&arent% has had &ro"%ems 'ettin'
!orei'n !i'hters into the (ountr as o! %ate* This (ou%d indi(ate that there wi%% soon "e an
e5odus o! Dihadists !rom the (ountr* These Dihadists) who have "een winnowed and
hardened " their (om"at a'ainst the +*S* mi%itar) mi'ht !ind the &astures 'reener in the
(ountries the enter a!ter %eavin' 1ra@* Fi#e the muDahideen who %e!t A!'hanistan
!o%%owin' the Soviet withdrawa%) the (ou%d 'o on to &ose a rea% threat e%sewhere*
Additiona%%) sin(e 677E 1ra@ has "een a verita"%e Dihadist ma'net) drawin'
Dihadists !rom a%% over the wor%d* 1! there is no &ossi"i%it o! see#in' =martrdom> in 1ra@)
these men Hand a !ew womenI wi%% have to !ind another &%a(e to em"ra(e their doom* The
(oa%ition.s %ist o! !orei'n Dihadists #i%%ed in 1ra@ shows that most o! the !i'hters have (ome
to the (ountr !rom &%a(es su(h as Saudi Ara"ia) A%'eria and Moro((o) "ut Dihadists a%so
have (ome !rom man other (ountries) in(%udin' the +nited States) +nited Kin'dom and
0uro&ean +nion* Jihadists in these &%a(es mi'ht o&t to !o%%ow the e5am&%e o! the Ju%
6775 Fondon "om"ers and martr themse%ves in their (ountries o! residen(e*
Jihadists in 1ra@ have had the %u5ur o! havin' an e5tensive amount o! mi%itar
ordnan(e at their dis&osa%* This ordnan(e has made it re%ative% sim&%e to (onstru(t
im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es) in(%udin' %ar'e tru(# "om"s* This) in turn) has made it
&ossi"%e to en'a'e hard tar'ets ? su(h as +*S* mi%itar "ases and (onvos* Jihadists
without a((ess to these t&es o! wea&ons Hand the t&e o! trainin' the re(eived in 1ra@I
wi%% "e more %i#e% to en'a'e so!t tar'ets* 1n !a(t) the on% 'rou& we saw with the
e5&ertise and ordnan(e to hit hard tar'ets outside o! 1ra@ and A!'hanistan in 677B was
A91M* As we !ore(ast !or 6776 and 677B) we anti(i&ate that the trend toward atta(#in'
so!t tar'ets wi%% (ontinue in 677G*
Af5,a0)s+a0 a0( !ak)s+a0
3es&ite +*S* and /ATO !or(es. re&eated ta(ti(a% vi(tories on the "att%e!ie%d) a%
9aeda.s A!'han a%%ies) the Ta%i"an) (ontinue to survive ? the (riti(a% tas# !or an
'uerri%%a !or(e en'a'ed in an insur'ent war* Fo%%owin' a &attern that has "een re&eated
man times throu'hout A!'han histor ? most re(ent% in the war !o%%owin' the Soviet
invasion ? the Ta%i"an %ar'e% see# to avoid e5tended "att%es and instead see# to en'a'e
in hit-and-run 'uerri%%a o&erations* This is "e(ause the rea%i,e that the (annot stand toe-
to-toe with the su&erior armaments o! the !orei'n invaders* 1ndeed) when the have tried
to stand and !i'ht) the have ta#en heav %osses* There!ore) the o((asiona%% wi%% o((u&
a town) su(h as Musa 9a%a) "ut wi%% retreat in the !a(e o! overwhe%min' !or(e and return
when that su&erior !or(e has "een de&%oed e%sewhere*
3ue to the &resen(e o! !orei'n troo&s) the Ta%i"an have no ho&e o! ta#in' (ontro%
o! A!'hanistan at this Dun(ture* ;owever) un%i#e the !orei'n troo&s) the Ta%i"an !i'hters
and their (ommanders are not 'oin' anwhere* The have a &atient &hi%oso&h and wi%%
"ide their time unti% the ta(ti(a% or &o%iti(a% (onditions (han'e in their !avor* Meanwhi%e)
the are wi%%in' to (ontinue their 'uerri%%a (am&ai'n and sustain %eve%s o! (asua%ties that
wou%d "e &o%iti(a%% untena"%e !or their +*S* and /ATO riva%s* The Ta%i"an have a ver
di!!use stru(ture) and even the %oss o! senior %eaders su(h as Mu%%ah 3adu%%ah and Mu%%ah
O"aidu%%ah A#hund has not &roven to "e mu(h o! a hindran(e*
Just over the "order !rom A!'hanistan) 4a#istan has witnessed the ra&id s&read o!
Ta%i"ani,ation* As a resu%t) 1s%ama"ad now is !i'htin' a Dihadist insur'en( o! its own in
the Federa%% Administered Tri"a% Areas and the /orth--est Frontier 4rovin(e* The
s&read o! this ideo%o' "eond the "order areas was &erha&s "est demonstrated " the
Ju% assau%t " the 4a#istani arm a'ainst mi%itants "arri(aded inside the Red Mos@ue in
1s%ama"ad* Sin(e the assau%t a'ainst the mos@ue) 4a#istan has "een wra(#ed " a wave o!
sui(ide "om"in's*
4a#istan shou%d "e (are!u%% wat(hed "e(ause it (ou%d &rove to "e a si'ni!i(ant
!%ash &oint in the (omin' ear* As the '%o"a% head@uarters !or the a% 9aeda %eadershi&)
4a#istan has %on' "een a si'ni!i(ant stron'ho%d on the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e!ie%d* 1! the trend
toward radi(a%i,ation (ontinues there) the (ountr a%so (ou%d "e(ome the new (enter o!
'ravit !or the Dihadist movement on the &hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d* 4a#istan wi%% "e(ome
es&e(ia%% im&ortant i! the trend in 1ra@ (ontinues to 'o a'ainst the Dihadists and the are
driven !rom 1ra@*
T,e Aear A,ea(
2iven the re%ative ease o! 'ettin' an o&erative into the +nited States) the sheer
num"er o! so!t tar'ets a(ross the vast (ountr and the sim&%i(it o! (ondu(tin' an atta(#)
we remain sur&rised that no Dihadist atta(# o((urred on +*S* soi% in 677B* ;owever) we
(ontinue to "e%ieve that the +nited States) as we%% as 0uro&e) remains vu%nera"%e to
ta(ti(a%-%eve% Dihadist stri#es ? thou'h we do not "e%ieve that the Dihadists have the
(a&a"i%it to %aun(h a strate'i(a%% si'ni!i(ant atta(#) even i! the were to em&%o
(hemi(a%) "io%o'i(a% or radio%o'i(a% wea&ons*
Jihadists have shown a histori(a% !i5ation on usin' to5ins and &oisons* As
STRATFOR re&eated% has &ointed out) however) (hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons are
e5&ensive to &rodu(e) di!!i(u%t to use and %ar'e% ine!!e(tive in rea%-wor%d a&&%i(ations*
Radio%o'i(a% wea&ons Hdirt "om"sI a%so are !ar %ess e!!e(tive than man &eo&%e have
"een %ed to "e%ieve* 1n !a(t) histor (%ear% has demonstrated that e5&%osives are !ar
(hea&er) easier to use and more e!!e(tive at #i%%in' &eo&%e than these more e5oti(
wea&ons* The !ai%ure " Dihadists in 1ra@ to use (h%orine e!!e(tive% in their atta(#s has
more re(ent% unders(ored the &ro"%ems asso(iated with the use o! im&rovised (hemi(a%
wea&ons ? the "om"s #i%%ed !ar more &eo&%e than the (h%orine the were meant to
dis&erse as a mass (asua%t wea&on*
A%-Jawahiri.s messa'es over the &ast ear (%ear% have re!%e(ted the &ressure that
the 'rou& is !ee%in'* The re&eated messa'es re!eren(in' 1ra@ and the need !or unit
amon' the Dihadists there show that a%-Jawahiri "e%ieves the momentum has shi!ted in
1ra@ and thin's are not 'oin' we%% !or a% 9aeda there* Ta(ti(a%%) a% 9aeda.s 1ra@i node
sti%% is #i%%in' &eo&%e) "ut strate'i(a%% the 'rou&.s ho&es o! esta"%ishin' a (a%i&hate there
under the mant%e o! the 1s%ami( State o! 1ra@ have a%% "ut disa&&eared* These dashed
ho&es have (aused the 'rou& to %ash out a'ainst !ormer a%%ies) whi(h has worsened a%
9aeda.s &osition*
1t a%so is (%ear that a% 9aeda is !ee%in' the wei'ht o! the ideo%o'i(a% war a'ainst it
? wa'ed %ar'e% " Mus%ims* A%-Jawahiri re&eated% has %amented s&e(i!i( !atwas "
Saudi (%eri(s de(%arin' that the Dihad in 1ra@ is not o"%i'ator and !or"iddin' oun'
Mus%ims !rom 'oin' to 1ra@* 1n a messa'e "road(ast in Ju%) a%-Jawahiri said) =1 wou%d
%i#e to remind everone that the most dan'erous wea&ons in the Saudi-Ameri(an sstem
are not "uin' o! %oa%ties) s&in' on "eha%! o! the Ameri(ans or &rovidin' !a(i%ities to
them* /o) the most dan'erous wea&ons o! that sstem are those who outward% &ro!ess
advi(e) 'uidan(e and instru(tion R> 1n other words) a% 9aeda !ears !atwas more than
wea&ons* -ea&ons (an #i%% &eo&%e ? !atwas (an #i%% the ideo%o' that motivates &eo&%e*
There are two "att%e'rounds in the war a'ainst Dihadism: the &hsi(a% and the
ideo%o'i(a%* Be(ause o! its o&erationa% se(urit (onsiderations) the a% 9aeda (ore has "een
mar'ina%i,ed in the &hsi(a% "att%e* This has (aused it to a"andon its &osition at the
van'uard o! the &hsi(a% Dihad and ta#e u& the mant%e o! %eadershi& in the ideo%o'i(a%
"att%e* The (ore no %on'er &oses a strate'i( threat to the +nited States in the &hsi(a%
wor%d) "ut it is strivin' hard to remain re%evant on the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e'round*
1n man was) the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e'round is more im&ortant than the &hsi(a%
war* 1t is !ar easier to #i%% &eo&%e than it is to #i%% ideo%o'ies* There!ore) it is im&ortant to
#ee& an ee on the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e'round to determine how that war is &ro'ressin'* 1n
the end) that is wh it is im&ortant to %isten to hours o! a%-Jawahiri statements* The
(ontain (%ear si'ns re'ardin' the status o! the war a'ainst Dihadism* The si'ns as o! %ate
indi(ate that the ideo%o'i(a% war is not 'oin' so we%% !or the Dihadists) "ut the a%so &oint
to &otentia% ha,ards around the "end in &%a(es su(h as 4a#istan and Fe"anon*
Fi"a: The Jihadist Threat
5ec) 21, 2007
The +*S* Mi%itar A(adem at -est 4oint re%eased a re&ort 3e(* 8A on a series o!
(a&tured a% 9aeda do(uments that were dis(overed in a Se&tem"er raid in the (it o!
SinDar near the Srian "order* The re&ort &rovides va%ua"%e insi'ht into what is essentia%%
a% 9aeda in 1ra@.s human resour(es de&artment) with detai%ed re(ords o! !orei'n !i'hters.
hometowns) o((u&ations) sa%aries and routes to 1ra@*
-hat stood out most in the re&ort was the 'rowin' Fi"an (om&onent o! a% 9aeda
in 1ra@* A((ordin' to the !indin's) 886 o! the tota% 5A5 re(ords state Fi"a as the
mi%itants. (ountr o! ori'in* +nsur&risin'%) the maDorit o! mi%itants H6::I hai%ed !rom
Saudi Ara"ia) "ut Fi"a (ontri"uted !ar more mi%itants &er (a&ita than an other (ountr)
in(%udin' Saudi Ara"ia* Based on a sam&%e o! Fi"an !i'hters) the SinDar Re(ords a%so
indi(ate a re%ative sur'e o! Fi"an re(ruits into 1ra@ "etween Ma and Ju% 677B) with E7
out o! a sam&%e o! EA Fi"ans %istin' their arriva% in that time !rame*
Fi"ans made u& a sma%% (ontin'ent o! !orei'n !i'hters in 1ra@ in the &ast) with
most estimates ran'in' around : &er(ent* The SinDar Re(ords) however) revea% a
si'ni!i(ant in!%u5 o! Fi"an re(ruits) whi(h is "ound to have Tri&o%i worried* -hi%e the
Dihadists in 1ra@ 'radua%% %ose their su&&ort "ase as more 1ra@i Sunni insur'ents "u into
the &o%iti(a% &ro(ess) the im&etus is on the re'ion.s Dihadist "reedin' states to insu%ate
themse%ves !rom the (omin' e5odus o! hardened) trained 1ra@ veterans* The vast maDorit
o! !orei'n !i'hters %isted =student> as their home o((u&ation and were around 6:-65 ears
o%d* The "i''est !ear o! 1ra@.s nei'h"orin' Sunni re'imes is that with minima% edu(ation
and &ro!essiona% e5&erien(e) the o((u&ation these oun' !i'hters wi%% "e most trained !or
when the return home is insur'en(*
But o! a%% the Dihadist-&rodu(in' states) Fi"a is in the stron'est &osition to
&revent a rise in mi%itan( within its "orders* Fi"an %eader Moammar 2adha!i has run
Fi"a as a &o%i(e state sin(e he too# &ower in a mi%itar (ou& in 8A6A* 1n the ear% 8AA7s)
a si,a"%e 'rou& o! Fi"an Dihadists who !ou'ht a%on'side A!'han muDahideen a'ainst the
Soviets returned home and %aun(hed a mi%itant (am&ai'n aimed at to&&%in' 2adha!i* The
'rou& !orma%% "e(ame the Fi"an 1s%ami( Fi'htin' 2rou& HF1F2I in 8AA5) and (arried
out a %ow-%eve% insur'en( that in(%uded assassination attem&ts tar'etin' 2adha!i and
atta(#s a'ainst mi%itar and &o%i(e &atro%s* 2adha!i res&onded with an iron !ist and
essentia%% im&osed martia% %aw in the 1s%amist mi%itant stron'ho%ds o! 3arnah) Ben'ha,i
and the towns o! Ras a%-;e%a% and a%-9u""ah in the Ja"a% a%-A#hdar re'ion ? the same
northeast mountainous re'ions the "u%# o! toda.s Fi"an re(ruits into 1ra@ (a%% home*
A!ter a series o! mi%itar (ra(#downs) 2adha!i 'ained the u&&er hand in dea%in' with his
1s%amist mi%itant o&&onents) and the insur'en( ta&ered o!! " the end o! the 8AA7s*

Sin(e then) a num"er o! Fi"ans have &o&&ed u& in a% 9aeda.s (ore %eadershi&)
in(%udin' Anas a%-Fi"i) one o! the #e &%anners o! the 8AAG "om"in' o! +*S* em"assies in
Kena and Tan,aniaK 1"n a% Shei#h a%-Fi"i) a (ommander o! Osama "in Faden.s a%-
Kha%dan trainin' (am& in A!'hanistanK A"u ;a!s a%-Fi"i) a (hie! asso(iate o! the %ate A"u
Musa" a%-Jar@awi in 1ra@K A"u Caha a%-Fi"i) a senior a% 9aeda (ommander and media
&ersona%it in A!'hanistanK and A"u FarD a%-Fi"i) now in +*S* (ustod at 2uantanamo
Ba) who was #nown as a% 9aeda.s /o* E %eader and dire(tor o! o&erations and the
mastermind o! two assassination attem&ts a'ainst 4a#istani 4resident 4erve, Musharra!*
As a s&arse% &o&u%ated desert (ountr with an e5treme% ade&t se(urit a&&aratus
and a re%ative% moderate 1s%amist &u%se) Fi"a is not an eas (ountr in whi(h to sustain
a via"%e Dihadist insur'en(* -ith %imited o&tions at home) a %ar'e num"er o! Fi"ans
have (onsistent% 'one overseas to !u%!i%% their Dihadist aims* The "%ea# insur'ent o&tions
in Fi"a (ou%d %ead man o! these !i'hters to re%o(ate !rom 1ra@ to A!'hanistan) where
Dihadist !or(es are in a stron'er &osition to wa'e atta(#s*
But this does not mean Fi"a is entire% in the (%ear* Tri&o%i (annot ru%e out that a
si,a"%e num"er o! Fi"an 1ra@ veterans (ou%d Doin to'ether and return home to revive the
insur'en() &arti(u%ar% a!ter the F1F2 !orma%% Doined a% 9aeda on /ov* E in an
announ(ement " a% 9aeda de&ut %eader Aman a%-Jawahiri* Thou'h the Fi"an a%
9aeda node has et to sta'e an si'ni!i(ant atta(#s in Fi"a) Tri&o%i has wari% o"served
how the Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at in nei'h"orin' A%'eria widened its
tar'etin' (riteria and made si'ni!i(ant advan(es in "om"in' te(hni@ues a!ter Doinin' the
a% 9aeda "andwa'on in Se&tem"er 6776*
A((ordin' to the SinDar Re(ords) Fi"ans and Moro((ans !ormed an
overwhe%min' maDorit o! mi%itants who %isted themse%ves as =sui(ide "om"ers> rather
than =!i'hters> u&on enterin' 1ra@* Saudis) on the other hand) were re%ative% s&%it
"etween sui(ide "om"ers and !i'hters* This is %i#e% a re!%e(tion o! the varian(e in s#i%%
set "etween the /orth A!ri(an and Saudi nodes* -hereas the Saudis have more
e5&erien(e in ta(ti(a% &%annin' on the "att%e'round) the Fi"ans and Moro((ans) who
have %imited insur'en( e5&erien(e in their home (ountries) are more e5&enda"%e as
sui(ide "om"ers*
The &ast de(ade has "een 'ood to 2adha!i.s re'ime* The Se&t* 88 atta(#s (reated
an o&&ortunit !or the +nited States and Fi"a to warm u& to ea(h other throu'h
inte%%i'en(e sharin') and Fi"a is in a &rime s&ot to "e(ome an ener' su&er&ower "
"oostin' -estern investment in its ener' se(tor now that the nu(%ear and Bu%'arian
nurse sa'as are wra&&ed u&* 2adha!i a%so has made wa !or the em&owerment o! his son
and %i#e% heir) Sei! a%-1s%am) to maintain a !irm 'ri& over the (ountr* But the more 1ra@.s
se(urit environment turns inhos&ita"%e to the Dihadists) the more Tri&o%i has to "e
(on(erned a"out as the Fi"an Dihadist (ontin'ent ma#es &%ans !or the !uture*
4a#istan: A% 9aeda.s Brea# with A% Ja,eera
5ec) 29, 2007
A% 9aeda.s 3e(* 6G (%aim o! res&onsi"i%it !or the assassination o! Bena,ir Bhutto
was not transmitted throu'h the or'ani,ation.s usua% messen'er) A% Ja,eera* This (han'e
&ro"a"% resu%ted !rom a dea% "etween the +nited States) 9atar and Saudi Ara"ia*
Rather than usin' A% Ja,eera) a% 9aeda s&o#esman A% 9aeda Musta!a A"u a%-
Ca,id ? %i#e% wor#in' throu'h e%ements (onne(ted to 4a#istan.s inte%%i'en(e a&&aratus
? transmitted a messa'e via &hone to 1ta%ian news a'en( Adn#ronos 1nternationa%
HAK1I and ;on' Kon'-"ased Asia Times On%ine* Asia Times On%ine &revious% has
&u"%ished severa% arti(%es @uotin' "oth 4a#istani inte%%i'en(e and Dihadist sour(es*
The other announ(ement (on(ernin' a% 9aeda.s invo%vement in the atta(# a%so
ori'inated in the 4a#istani se(urit esta"%ishment* The 4a#istani 1nterior Ministr said the
'overnment inter(e&ted a (onversation in 4ashto "etween Baitu%%ah Mehsud) 4a#istan.s
most &rominent Ta%i"an %eader) and an a% 9aeda (ommander identi!ied as Mau%vi Sahi" in
whi(h "oth men (on'ratu%ate ea(h other !or the =s&e(ta(u%ar Do"*> -ith "%ame a%read
"ein' (ast on the 'overnment o! 4a#istani 4resident 4erve, Musharra! !or the
assassination) the 'overnment evident% is ta#in' 'reat (are in trin' to (%ear itse%! o! an
invo%vement in the atta(#*
Both AK1 and Asia Times &u"%ished a messa'e " a%-Ca,id sain' that =-e
terminated the most &re(ious Ameri(an asset whi(h vowed to de!eat [the$ muDahadeen*>
Both news a'en(ies a%so re&orted that a% 9aeda de&ut %eader Aman a%-Jawahiri made
the de(ision to #i%% Bhutto in O(to"er*
A new re(ordin' !rom Osama "in Faden &rodu(ed " a% 9aeda.s As-Saha" media
arm !urther i%%ustrates a% 9aeda.s a&&arent "rea# with A% Ja,eera* The !u%% 56-minute
re(ordin' entit%ed =The 4ath to Foi%in' 4%ots in 1ra@> soon wi%% "e &osted on an 1s%amist
-e" site) thou'h whether in audio or video !ormat remains un(%ear* The -e" site
announ(ement in(%uded a statement readin' =Ma 2od e5&ose the (over-u& " A%
Ja,eera) the (hanne% o! the in!ide%s*>
The !resh (riti(ism a'ainst A% Ja,eera stems !rom a shi!t in the 9atar-"ased
(hanne%.s (overa'e o! a% 9aeda a(tivit* 1n %ate O(to"er) a% 9aeda sm&athi,ers &osted a
!%urr o! denun(iations o! A% Ja,eera on a &o&u%ar 1s%amist -e" !orum* The "u%# o! the
messa'es !o(used on how A% Ja,eera &ur&orted% has misre&resented a% 9aeda in 1ra@ "
em&hasi,in' e5(er&ts in whi(h "in Faden (riti(i,es insur'ents in 1ra@ and ur'es them to
admit mista#es and uni! ? and " i%%ustratin' the divisions a% 9aeda in 1ra@ is
e5&erien(in' as its su&&ort "ase amon' the Sunni &o&u%ation erodes*
The shi!t in A% Ja,eera.s a% 9aeda (overa'e &ro"a"% resu%ted !rom ne'otiations
"etween 3oha) 9atarK Riadh) and -ashin'ton* The 9atari 'overnment has (ome under
&ressure !rom the +nited States and Saudi Ara"ia to rein in A% Ja,eera and aid in
-ashin'ton.s and Riadh.s e!!orts to undermine su&&ort !or a% 9aeda in 1ra@* A% Ja,eera.s
modi!i(ation !o%%ows a re(ent ra&&ro(hement "etween 9atar and Saudi Ara"ia that
emer'ed in a 3e(em"er dea% "etween the two 'overnments with severa% "rea#throu'hs
that in(%uded the return o! Saudi Ara"ia.s am"assador to 9atar* HSaudi Ara"ia has not had
an am"assador in 9atar sin(e 677E) when the Saudi am"assador was withdrawn over an
A% Ja,eera "road(ast (riti(a% o! the Saudi roa% !ami%*I The dea% a%so in(%uded Saudi
Kin' A"du%%ah.s attendan(e at the 2u%! Coo&eration Coun(i% in 3oha in 3e(em"er* HKin'
A"du%%ah has "o(otted the meetin' sin(e it was %ast hosted in 3oha) in 6776*I Fina%%)
the dea% &rovided that 9atar wou%d ensure !uture A% Ja,eera "road(asts no %on'er wou%d
=undermine> or (am&ai'n a'ainst Saudi Ara"iaK in e5(han'e) Saudi Ara"ia wou%d &ermit
the networ# to esta"%ish a "ureau in Riadh*
0ven "e!ore the thaw in Saudi-9atari re%ations) a% 9aeda had "een war o! usin'
A% Ja,eera as its &rimar messen'er* A% 9aeda !a(es o&erationa% se(urit ris#s in
de%iverin' video messa'es to news a'en(ies* A%-Jawahiri has (urtai%ed his video
a&&earan(es si'ni!i(ant% sin(e the O(to"er 6776 missi%e atta(# in Chin'ai) 4a#istan* The
or'ani,ation in(reasin'% has "e(ome re%iant on u&%oadin' audio and video !i%es to -e"
sites) ma#in' the statements harder to tra(e* -ith its ties (ut to A% Ja,eera) a% 9aeda.s
trust in its (onta(t with news a'en(ies %i#e AK1 and Asia Times On%ine now wi%% "e &ut to
the test*
4a#istan) Bhutto and the +*S*-Jihadist 0nd'ame
6an) 2, 2008
The end'ame o! the +*S*-Dihadist war a%was had to "e &%aed out in 4a#istan*
There are two reasons that (ou%d a((ount !or this* The !irst is sim&%e: Osama "in Faden
and the a% 9aeda (ommand (e%% are %o(ated in 4a#istan* The war (annot end whi%e the
(ommand (e%% !un(tions or has a (han(e o! re'eneratin'* The se(ond reason is more
(om&%i(ated* The +nited States and /ATO are en'a'ed in a war in A!'hanistan* -here
the Soviets %ost with E77)777 troo&s) the Ameri(ans and /ATO are !i'htin' with %ess than
57)777* An ho&e o! de!eatin' the Ta%i"an) or o! rea(hin' some sort o! a((ommodation)
de&ends on iso%atin' them !rom 4a#istan* So %on' as the Ta%i"an have san(tuar and
%o'isti(a% su&&ort !rom 4a#istan) trans!errin' a%% (oa%ition troo&s in 1ra@ to A!'hanistan
wou%d have no e!!e(t* And withdrawin' !rom A!'hanistan wou%d return the situation to
the status @uo "e!ore Se&t* 88* 1! dea%in' with the Ta%i"an and destroin' a% 9aeda are
&art o! an end'ame) the #e %ies in 4a#istan*
+*S* strate' in 4a#istan has "een to su&&ort 4a#istani 4resident 4erve,
Musharra! and re% on him to &ur'e and sha&e his (ountr.s arm to the e5tent &ossi"%e to
'ain its su&&ort in atta(#in' a% 9aeda in the /orth) (ontain 1s%amist radi(a%s in the rest o!
the (ountr and interdi(t su&&%ies and rein!or(ements !%owin' to the Ta%i"an !rom
4a#istan* 1t was a%was understood that this strate' was tri&% !%awed*
First) under the "est o! (ir(umstan(es) a (om&%ete% united and motivated
4a#istani arm.s a"i%it to (arr out this mission e!!e(tive% was dou"t!u%* And se(ond)
the 4a#istani arm was ? and is ? not (om&%ete% united and motivated* /ot on% was it
divided) one o! its maDor divisions %a "etween Ta%i"an su&&orters sm&atheti( to a%
9aeda and a mi5ed "a' o! !a(tions with other (om&etin' interests* 3istin'uishin'
"etween who was on whi(h side in a (om&%e5 and shi!tin' (onste%%ation o! re%ationshi&s
was Dust a"out im&ossi"%e* That meant the arm the +nited States was re%in' on to
su&&ort the +*S* mission was) !rom the Ameri(an view&oint) inherent% !%awed*
1t must "e remem"ered that the muDahideen.s war a'ainst the Soviets in
A!'hanistan sha&ed the (urrent 4a#istani arm* A%%ied with the Ameri(ans and Saudis) the
4a#istani arm ? and &arti(u%ar% its inte%%i'en(e a&&aratus) the 1nter-Servi(es
1nte%%i'en(e H1S1I ? had as its mission the (reation o! a Dihadist !or(e in A!'hanistan to
!i'ht the Soviets* The +nited States %ost interest in A!'hanistan a!ter the !a%% o! the Soviet
+nion) "ut the 4a#istanis did not have that o&tion* A!'hanistan was ri'ht ne5t door* An
interestin' thin' ha&&ened at that &oint* ;avin' he%&ed !or'e the muDahideen and its
su((essor) the Ta%i"an) the 4a#istani arm and 1S1 in turn were heavi% in!%uen(ed " their
A!'han (%ients. va%ues* 4atron and (%ient "e(ame a%%ies* And this (reated a mi%itar !or(e
that was e5treme% unre%ia"%e !rom the +*S* view&oint*
Third) Musharra!.s intentions were inherent% un&redi(ta"%e* As a (reature o! the
4a#istani arm) Musharra! re!%e(ts a%% o! the am"iva%en(es and tensions o! that institution*
;is &rimar interest was in ho%din' on to &ower* To do that) he needed to avoid Ameri(an
mi%itar a(tion in 4a#istan whi%e simu%taneous% reassurin' radi(a% 1s%amists he was not a
mere too% o! the +nited States* 2iven the (om&%e5it o! his &osition) no one (ou%d ever "e
(ertain o! where Musharra! stood* ;is &osition was entire% ta(ti(a%) shi!tin' as &o%iti(a%
ne(essit re@uired* ;e was (onstant% &%a(atin' the various &arties) "ut sin(e the &ro(ess
o! &%a(ation !or the Ameri(ans meant that he ta#e a(tion a'ainst the Dihadists) (onstant
ine!!e(tive a(tion " Musharra! resu%ted* ;e too# enou'h a(tion to #ee& the Ameri(ans at
"a) not enou'h to !or(e his 1s%amist enemies to ta#e e!!e(tive a(tion a'ainst him*
0ver sin(e Se&t* 88) Musharra! has wa%#ed this ti'htro&e) shi!tin' his "a%an(e
!rom one side to the other) with the &rimar aim o! not !a%%in' o!! the ro&e* This &roved
unsatis!a(tor to the +nited States) as we%% as to Musharra!.s 1s%amist o&&onents* -hi%e
he irritated ever"od) the view !rom a%% !a(tions ? inside and outside 4a#istan ? was
that) 'iven the (ir(umstan(es) Musharra! was "etter than the a%ternative* 1ndeed) that
(ou%d have "een his (am&ai'n s%o'an: =Note !or Musharra!: 0verthin' 0%se is -orse*>
From the +*S* &oint o! view) Musharra! and the 4a#istani arm mi'ht have "een
unre%ia"%e) "ut an a%ternative ima'ina"%e wou%d "e even worse* 0ven i! their a(tions
were ine!!e(tive) some a(tions were ta#en* At the ver %east) the were not a(tin' o&en%
and (onsistent% a'ainst the +nited States* -ere Musharra! and the 4a#istani arm to a(t
(onsistent% a'ainst +*S* interests as Russian %o'isti(a% su&&ort !or +*S* o&erations in
A!'hanistan waned) the +*S*P/ATO &osition in A!'hanistan (ou%d sim&% (ra(#*
There!ore) the +*S* &o%i( in 4a#istan was to do everthin' &ossi"%e to ma#e
(ertain Musharra! didn.t !a%% or) more &re(ise%) to ma#e sure the 4a#istani arm didn.t
!ra'ment and its %eadershi& didn.t move into dire(t and o&en o&&osition to the +nited
States* The +nited States understood that the more it &ressed Musharra! and the more he
'ave) the %ess %i#e% he was to survive and the %ess (ertain "e(ame the 4a#istani arm.s
(ohesion* Thus) the +*S* strate' was to &ress !or a(tion) "ut not to the &oint o!
desta"i%i,in' 4a#istan "eond its natura% insta"i%it* The &riorit was to maintain
Musharra! in &ower) and !ai%in' that) to maintain the 4a#istani arm as a (ohesive) non-
1s%amist !or(e*
1n a%% o! this) there was one institution that) on the who%e) had to su&&ort him* That
was the 4a#istani arm* The 4a#istani arm was the one !un(tionin' nationa% institution
in 4a#istan* For the senior %eaders) it was a vehi(%e to maintain their own &ower and
&osition* For the %owest en%isted man) the arm was a means !or u&ward mo"i%it) an
es(a&e !rom the 'rindin' &overt o! the s%ums and vi%%a'es* The 4a#istani arm o"vious%
was !a(tiona%i,ed) "ut no !a(tion had an interest in seein' the arm !ra'ment* Their own
!utures were at sta#e* And there!ore) so %on' as Musharra! #e&t the arm to'ether) the
wou%d %ive with him* 0ven the %ess radi(a% 1s%amists too# that view*
A sin'%e &ersona%it (annot maintain a "a%an(in' a(t %i#e this inde!inite%K one o!
three thin's wi%% ha&&en* First) he (an !a%% o!! the ro&e and "e(ome the &risoner o! one o!
the !a(tions* Se(ond) he (an %ose (redi"i%it with a%% !a(tions ? with the "asi( &o%iti(a%
(on!i'uration remainin' inta(t "ut with the sstem &uttin' !orth a new &ersona%it to
&reside* Third) he (an "ui%d u& his &ower) (rush the !a(tions and start (a%%in' the shots*
This %ast is the hardest strate') "e(ause in this (ase) it wou%d "e (onvertin' a ro%e he%d
due to the %a(# o! a%ternatives into a &osition o! &ower* That is a %on' rea(h*
/everthe%ess) that is wh Musharra! de(ided to de(%are a state o! emer'en(* /o
one was satis!ied with him an %on'er) and &ressure was "ui%din' !or him to =ta#e o!! his
uni!orm> ? in other words) to turn the arm over to someone e%se and ru%e as a (ivi%ian*
Musharra! understood that it was on% a matter o! time "e!ore his &ersona% &osition
(o%%a&sed and the arm rea%i,ed that) 'iven the (ir(umstan(es) the (o%%a&se o! Musharra!
(ou%d mean the !ra'mentation o! the arm* Musharra! there!ore tried to 'et (ontro% o! the
situation " de(%arin' a state o! emer'en( and 'ettin' the mi%itar "a(#in' !or it* ;is
'oa% was to (onvert the state o! emer'en( ? and ta#in' o!! his uni!orm ? into a
&osition !rom whi(h to (onso%idate his &ower*
1t wor#ed to an e5tent* The arm "a(#ed the state o! emer'en(* /o senior %eader
(ha%%en'ed him* There were no mutinies amon' the troo&s* There was no 'enera%
u&risin'* ;e was (ondemned " everone !rom the Dihadists to the Ameri(ans) "ut no one
too# an si'ni!i(ant a(tion a'ainst him* The situation was &re(arious) "ut it a&&eared he
mi'ht we%% emer'e !rom the state o! emer'en( in a &o%iti(a%% enhan(ed &osition*
0nhan(ed was the "est he (ou%d ho&e !or* ;e wou%d not "e a"%e to 'et o!! the ti'htro&e)
"ut at the same time) sim&% (a%%in' a state o! emer'en( and not tri''erin' a massive
res&onse wou%d enhan(e his &osition*
4ar%iamentar e%e(tions were s(hedu%ed !or Jan* G and are now de%aed unti% Fe"*
8G* 2iven the !ra'mentation o! 4a#istani so(iet) the most %i#e% out(ome was a hi'h%
!ra'mented &ar%iament) one that wou%d "e hard-&ressed to %e'is%ate) %et a%one to serve as a
&ower"ase* 1n the %i#e% event o! 'rid%o(#) Musharra!.s &osition as the indis&ensa"%e ? i!
dis%i#ed ? man wou%d "e stren'thened* B %ast wee#) Musharra! must have "een %oo#in'
!orward to the e%e(tions* 0%e(tions wou%d (on!irm his &osition) whi(h was that the (ivi%
institutions (ou%d not !un(tion and that the arm) with or without him as o!!i(ia% head) had
to remain the (enter o! the 4a#istani &o%it*
Then someone #i%%ed Bena,ir Bhutto and (han'ed the entire dnami( o! 4a#istan*
Thou'h Bhutto.s 4a#istan 4eo&%e.s 4art &ro"a"% wou%d have 'ained a su"stantia%
num"er o! seats) it was un%i#e% to swee& the e%e(tion and serious% threaten the mi%itar.s
ho%d on &ower* Bhutto was sim&% one o! the man !or(es (om&etin' !or &ower* As a
woman) re&resentin' an essentia%% se(u%ar &art) she was un%i#e% to "e a de(isive
winner* 1n man was) she reminds us o! Mi#hai% 2or"a(hev) who was mu(h more
admired " -esterners than he ever was " Russians* She was hi'h% visi"%e and a !a(tor
in 4a#istani &o%iti(s) "ut i! Musharra! were threatened) the threat wou%d not (ome !rom
her*
There!ore) her murder is a mster* 1t is a(tua%% a mster on two %eve%s* First) it
is not (%ear who did it* Se(ond) it is not (%ear how the deed was done* The murder o! a
maDor &o%iti(a% %eader is a%was hard to unrave%* Con!usion rei'ns !rom the !irst "u%%et
!ired in a (rowd* The !irst a((ount o! events a%was turns out to "e wron') as do the
se(ond throu'h !i!th a((ounts) too* That is how (ons&ira( theories are s&awned* 2ettin'
the !a(ts strai'ht in an murder is tou'h* 2ettin' them strai'ht in a &o%iti(a% assassination
is even harder* 4arado5i(a%%) more &eo&%e witnessin' su(h in(idents trans%ates into
'reater (on!usion) sin(e everone has a di!!erent &ers&e(tive and a di!!erent ta%e*
Cons&ira( theorists (an have a !ie%d da &i(#in' and (hoosin' amon' (on!used re&orts
" sho(#ed and untrained o"servers*
/everthe%ess) the (on!usion in this (ase a&&ears to "e wa "eond the norm* -as
there a "om"er and a se&arate shooter with a &isto% ne5t to her (ar< 1! this were indeed a
&ro!essiona% Do") wh was the shooter ina&&ro&riate% armed with a &isto%< -as Bhutto
#i%%ed " the &isto%-wie%din' shooter) shra&ne% !rom the "om") a "u%%et !rom a third
assassin on a near" "ui%din' or even inside her (ar) or " !a%%in' a!ter the "om"
detonated< ;ow did the #i%%er or #i%%ers #now Bhutto wou%d stand u& and e5&ose herse%!
throu'h her armored vehi(%e.s sunroo!< Ner !ew o! the detai%s so !ar ma#e sense*
And that re!%e(ts the !a(t that nothin' a"out the assassination ma#es sense* -ho wou%d
want Bhutto dead< Musharra! had %itt%e motivation* ;e had enemies) and she was one o!
them) "ut she was !ar !rom the most dan'erous o! them* And #i%%in' her wou%d threaten
an e%e(tion that did not threaten him or his transition to a new status* Orderin' her death
thus wou%d not have made a 'reat dea% o! sense !or Musharra!*
-hoever ordered her death wou%d have had one o! two motives* First) the
wanted to desta"i%i,e 4a#istan) or se(ond) the wanted to #i%% her in su(h a wa as to
wea#en Musharra!.s &osition " showin' that the state o! emer'en( had !ai%ed* The
Dihadists (ertain% had ever reason to want to #i%% her ? a%on' with a %on' %ist o!
4a#istani &o%iti(ians) in(%udin' Musharra!* The want to desta"i%i,e 4a#istan) "ut i! the
(an do so and im&%i(ate Musharra! at the same time) so mu(h the sweeter*
The %oser in the assassination was Musharra!* ;e is &ro"a"% too (ann a
&o%iti(ian to have &%anned the #i%%in' without anti(i&atin' this out(ome* -hoever did this
wanted to do more than #i%% Bhutto* The wanted to derai% Musharra!.s attem&t to retain
his (ontro% over the 'overnment* This was a (om&%e5 o&eration desi'ned to (reate
(on!usion*
Our !irst sus&e(t is a% 9aeda sm&athi,ers who wou%d "ene!it !rom the (on!usion
s&awned " the #i%%in' o! an im&ortant &o%iti(a% %eader* The more a%%e'ations o!
(om&%i(it in the #i%%in' are thrown a'ainst the re'ime) the more the mi%itar re'ime is
desta"i%i,ed ? thus e5&andin' o&&ortunities !or Dihadists to sow even more insta"i%it*
Our se(ond sus&e(ts are e%ements in the arm wantin' to use the assassination to !or(e
Musharra! out) re&%a(e him with a new &ersona%it and Dusti! a massive (ra(#down*
Two &arties we (annot ima'ine as sus&e(ts in the #i%%in' are the +nited States and
Musharra!K neither "ene!ited !rom the #i%%in'* Musharra! now !a(es the &o%iti(a% a"ss
and the +nited States !a(es the desta"i%i,ation o! 4a#istan as the Ta%i"an is s&%interin'
and various Dihadist %eaders are !ra'mentin'* This is the %ast moment the +nited States
wou%d (hoose to desta"i%i,e 4a#istan* Our "est 'uess is that the #i%%in' was a% 9aeda
doin' what it does "est* The theor that it was anti-Musharra! e%ements in the arm
(omes in at a ver distant se(ond*
But the +nited States now !a(es its end'ame under !ar %ess than idea% (onditions*
1ra@ is sta"i%i,in'* That mi'ht reverse) "ut !or now it is sta"i%i,in'* The Ta%i"an is stron')
"ut it is under &ressure and has serious interna% &ro"%ems* The end'ame a%was was
su&&osed to (ome in 4a#istan) "ut this is !ar !rom how the Ameri(ans wanted to &%a it
out* The +nited States is not 'oin' to 'et an a''ressive) anti-1s%amist mi%itar in 4a#istan)
"ut it "ad% needs more than a 4a#istani mi%itar that is ha%!-hearted% and tenuous%
(ommitted to the !i'ht* Sa%va'in' Musharra! is 'ettin' harder with ea(h &assin' da* So
that means that a new &ersona%it) su(h as 4a#istani mi%itar (hie! 2en* Ash!a@ Kaani)
must "e(ome -ashin'ton.s new man in 4a#istan* 1n this end'ame) a%% that the Ameri(ans
want is the status @uo in 4a#istan* 1t is a%% the (an 'et* And 'iven the wa +*S* %u(# is
runnin') the mi'ht not even 'et that*
A% 9aedaMs Si%en(e on 4a#istan
6an) 7, 2008
A video (ommuni@ue sur!a(ed on Sunda !rom a% 9aeda s&o#esman Adam
2adahn) a#a =A,,am the Ameri(an*> One o! the hi'h%i'hts o! the 57-minute video) tit%ed
=An 1nvitation to Re!%e(tion and Re&entan(e)> is a (a%% to Dihadists to we%(ome +*S*
4resident 2eor'e -* Bush with "om"s when he arrives Jan* A on a wee#%on' tour o! the
Midd%e 0ast* At one &oint in the video) 2adahn) a +*S* nationa%) is shown tearin' u& his
+*S* &ass&ort*
Overa%%) the 'enera% thrust o! the video is no di!!erent !rom &revious messa'es
!rom a% 9aeda %eader Osama "in Faden) his de&ut Aman a%-Jawahiri and other %eadin'
Dihadist !i'ures) in whi(h the (%aim a +*S* de!eat in 1ra@ and A!'hanistan) denoun(e
ru%ers o! Ara"PMus%im (ountries as a&ostates and a'ents o! the +nited States) and (a%%
u&on Ameri(ans to a((e&t 1s%am*
-e have dis(ussed "e!ore the amount o! resour(es) ener' and time re@uired !or
a% 9aeda.s a&e5 %eadershi& to &rodu(e a messa'e %i#e this* A% 9aeda &rime not on%
su!!ers !rom a s(ar(it o! resour(es) "ut a%so is o"sessed with o&erationa% se(urit* Thus) a
de(ision to issue a statement is made on% a!ter (onsidera"%e thou'ht ? &resuma"%) a%
9aeda wou%d on% &rodu(e su(h a messa'e i! it &er(eived a su"stantia% "ene!it in doin'
so*
There!ore) it is @uite odd that this %atest video !rom 2adahn and the (ommuni@ues
that &re(eded it ? a series o! messa'es !rom "in Faden in the !a%% o! 677B ? "oth ta%#
a"out the Midd%e 0ast in 'enera% and 1ra@ in &arti(u%ar) "ut do not address the situation in
4a#istan* +n%i#e in 1ra@ and most other &%a(es) a% 9aeda (an a(tua%% (%aim a si'ni!i(ant
de'ree o! su((ess in 4a#istan* ;owever) the %ast time a% 9aeda issued a statement on
4a#istan was Se&t* 67) 677B) when "in Faden vowed to reta%iate a'ainst 4a#istani
4resident 4erve, Musharra! !or the #i%%in' o! the (%eri( who %ed the u&risin' at
1s%ama"ad.s Red Mos@ue*
Sin(e then) the Dihadists in 4a#istan have su((ess!u%% sta'ed mu%ti&%e sui(ide
atta(#s a'ainst arm and air !or(e insta%%ations and &ersonne%) as we%% as those o! the
1nter-Servi(es 1nte%%i'en(e dire(torate* 1n addition) 4a#istani Ta%i"an have (onso%idated
their ho%d in the -a,iristan re'ion in the (ountr.s tri"a% "e%t a%on' the "order with
A!'hanistan* The Ta%i"an &henomenon has a%so s&read to the distri(t o! Swat in the
/orth--est Frontier 4rovin(e) where !o%%owers o! Mau%ana Fa,%u%%ah too# over most o!
the distri(t ? and 4a#istani !or(es are sti%% "att%in' to re'ain (ontro%*
More re(ent%) the inse(urit and insta"i%it in 4a#istan in(reased shar&% "e(ause
o! the assassination o! to& o&&osition %eader Bena,ir Bhutto* The deterioration o! &o%iti(a%
sta"i%it in 4a#istan is o"vious% !or(in' the +nited States to re-eva%uate its o&tions ?
the /ew Cor# Times re&orted on Sunda that the /ationa% Se(urit Coun(i% is
(onsiderin' e5&andin' the authorit o! the C1A and the 4enta'on to (ondu(t more
a''ressive (overt o&erations in 4a#istan.s northwestern re'ions* Chaos) wea#enin' o!
'overnment (ontro%) and the entr o! the +*S* mi%itar into the !ra ? these are the
(onditions in whi(h a% 9aeda thrives*
Cet there is an odd si%en(e !rom a% 9aeda re'ardin' these vi(tories* 3es&ite its
re%ative su((ess in 4a#istan) the 'rou& (ontinues to e5&end its &re(ious resour(es on
&rodu(in' statements that either rehash its usua% standard rhetori() or that !o(us on areas
in whi(h it is !a(in' de!eat* -h wou%d a 'rou& that thrives so mu(h on media attention
ma#e su(h a "ad 4R move<
A% 9aeda.s a&e5 %eaders are man thin's) "ut the are not stu&id ? i! the were)
the wou%d have "een #i%%ed ears a'o and wou%d no %on'er "e issuin' video statements*
There!ore we tend to &re!er the sim&%e) o"vious e5&%anation: The are !o(usin'
everwhere "ut 4a#istan "e(ause the want to draw attention awa !rom 4a#istan*
A% 9aeda &rime is) a!ter a%%) head@uartered in 4a#istan* -ith -ashin'ton.s !o(us
shi!tin' !rom the (haos in 1ra@ to the (haos in 4a#istan) it mi'ht "e that the s&ot%i'ht is
shinin' un(om!orta"% (%ose to the a&e5 %eadershi&* From a% 9aeda.s &oint o! view) the
A!'hanistan-4a#istan theater is &erha&s the on% area o! o&&ortunit %e!t !or the Dihadists
to e5&%oit) and the area where the !ina% "att%e o! the +*S*-Dihadist war wi%% "e !ou'ht* But
we sus&e(t the are not ea'er to !i'ht it Dust et*
Annua% Fore(ast 677G: Beond the Jihadist -ar
6an) 8, 2008
There are three maDor '%o"a% &ro(esses under wa that wi%% (ontinue to wor#
themse%ves out in 677G* First) the +*S*-Dihadist war is enterin' its !ina% &haseK the
destru(tion o! a% 9aeda.s strate'i( (a&a"i%ities now a%%ows the +nited States to shi!t its
&osture ? whi(h in(%udes %evera'in' the Sunni wor%d to !inish the Do" "e'un in 1ra@ ?
and ena"%es -ashin'ton to "e'in drawin' down its Midd%e 0astern !or(es* Se(ond) an
assertive Russia is re-emer'in' and ta#in' advanta'e o! the im"a%an(e in +*S* &ower
resu%tin' !rom the war* Third) oi% at histori(a% hi'hs and (ontinued Asian ? &arti(u%ar%
Chinese ? e5&orts have (reated a massive redistri"ution o! !inan(ia% mi'ht that is
resha&in' the internationa% !inan(ia% ar(hite(ture* These &ro(esses interse(t with ea(h
other) as we%% as with a !ourth &henomenon: 1t is a &residentia% e%e(tion ear in the +nited
States) whi(h remains the (enter o! 'ravit o! the internationa% sstem* These are the
trends that sha&e our '%o"a% !ore(ast*
/orma%% in an e%e(tion ear) +*S* attention on '%o"a% a!!airs dwind%es
&re(i&itous%) a%%owin' other &owers to set the a'enda* That wi%% not "e the (ase) however)
in 677G* +*S* 4resident 2eor'e -* Bush is not u& !or re-e%e(tion) and there is no wou%d-
"e su((essor !rom the administration in the ra(eK this !rees u& a%% o! the administration.s
"andwidth !or whatever a(tivities it wishes* Additiona%%) Bush.s un&o&u%arit means that
ea(h o! the -hite ;ouse.s domesti( initiatives essentia%% wi%% "e dead on arriva% in
Con'ress* A%% o! the Bush administration.s ener' wi%% instead "e !o(used on !orei'n
a!!airs) sin(e su(h a(tivities do not re@uire &u"%i( or (on'ressiona% a&&rova%* Contrar to
the (onventiona% wisdom) 677G wi%% see the +nited States a(tin' with the most ener' and
&ur&ose it has had sin(e the months dire(t% a!ter the AP88 atta(#*
Su(h ener' is not sim&% a resu%t o! this odd hi((u& in the Ameri(an &o%iti(a%
sstem "ut o! a maDor shi!t in (ir(umstan(e on the issue that has mono&o%i,ed Ameri(an
!orei'n &o%i( e!!orts sin(e 677E: 1ra@* The 1ra@ war was an out'rowth o! the Dihadist war*
A!ter the 6778 invasion o! A!'hanistan) the +nited States rea%i,ed it %a(#ed the mi%itar
wherewitha% to simu%taneous% dea% with the !our &owers that made a% 9aeda &ossi"%e:
Saudi Ara"ia) Sria) 1ran and 4a#istan* The !irst &hase o! the Bush so%ution was to
&ro(ure an an(hor a'ainst A!'hanistan " !or(in' 4a#istan into an a%%ian(e* The se(ond
was to invade the state that "ordered the other three ? 1ra@ ? in order to intimidate the
remainin' trio into (oo&eratin' a'ainst a% 9aeda* The !ina% sta'e was to &ress "oth wars
unti% a% 9aeda ? the (ore or'ani,ation that %aun(hed the AP88 atta(# and sou'ht the
(reation o! a &an-1s%ami( (a%i&hate) not the mriad %o(a% e5tremists who %ater ado&ted its
name ? "ro#e*
As 677G dawns) it has "e(ome a&&arent that thou'h this strate' en'endered
man un!oreseen (osts) it has &roven su((ess!u% at 'rindin' a% 9aeda into
non!un(tiona%it* 4ut sim&%) the Dihadist war is a%% "ut overK the +nited States not on% is
winnin' "ut a%so has an a%%ian(e with the entire (onste%%ation o! Sunni &owers that made
a% 9aeda &ossi"%e in the !irst &%a(e* The +nited States wi%% attem&t to use this a%%ian(e to
&ressure the remnants o! a% 9aeda and its a%%ies) as we%% as those in the re'ion who are not
in the a%%ian(e*
This %eaves 1ran) the re'ion.s on% non-Sunni &ower) in the un(om!orta"%e
&osition o! needin' to see# an arran'ement with the +nited States* The ear 677G wi%%
sti%% "e a"out 1ra@ ? "ut in a di!!erent wa* 1ran (ares dee&% a"out the !ina% status o!
1ra@) sin(e ever united Meso&otamian 'overnment has at some &oint in its histor
attem&ted a 4ersian invasion* Cet !or the +nited States) the detai%s o! intra-1ra@i
ne'otiations and se(urit in 1ra@i (ities now are irre%evant to its 'eo&o%iti(a% (on(erns*
-ashin'ton does not (are what 1ra@ %oo#s %i#e) so %on' as the Sunni Dihadists or Tehran do
not attain u%timate (ontro% ? and evo%utions in 677B have made "oth s(enarios
im&ossi"%e in 677G*
1ran re(o'ni,es this) and as a resu%t -ashin'ton and Tehran are ever %ess
tentative% ed'in' toward a dea%* 1t is in this (onte5t ? as an e%ement o! ta%#s with 1ran
? that 1ra@ sti%% matters to -ashin'ton) and this is now the &rimar rationa%e !or
(ontinued invo%vement in 1ra@* The +nited States wi%% not (om&%ete% withdraw !rom 1ra@
in 677G ? indeed) it %i#e% wi%% have 877)777 troo&s on the 'round when Bush %eaves
o!!i(e ? "ut this wi%% "e the ear in whi(h the mission evo%ves !rom ta(ti(a% overwat(h to
strate'i( overwat(h* HRou'h% trans%ated !rom mi%itar %in'o) this means shi!tin' !rom
&atro%%in' the (ities in order to en!or(e the &ea(e to hun#erin' in the desert in order to
ensure that 1ran does not tr to sei,e 1ra@ and the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a "eond*I
1n the a!termath o! the /ovem"er 677B Anna&o%is) Md*) (on!eren(e and the
de(%assi!i(ation o! a /ationa% 1nte%%i'en(e 0stimate on the none5isten(e o! the 1ranian
nu(%ear &ro'ram) the "a%% is in the 1ranians. (ourt* A +*S*-1ranian dea% ? no matter how
"ene!i(ia% it wou%d "e !or "oth states ? is not inevita"%e* But STRATFOR !inds it
un%i#e% that Tehran wou%d (hoose strate'i( (on!rontation with "oth the +nited States and
the Ara" wor%d when the "ene!its o! (oo&eration ? and the &ena%ties !or hosti%it ? are
so &otent* A !ramewor# !or !uture re%ations) as we%% as !or (o-dominion o! 1ra@) is %i#e% to
emer'e in 677G*
Sti%%) !ramewor#s (ome s%ow%) and (ra!tin' su(h a !ramewor# wi%% re@uire the
"u%# o! Ameri(an !or(es (urrent% in 1ra@ to remain there !or most o! the ear* The +nited
States wi%% draw !or(es down and eventua%% re'ain its "andwidth !or other o&erations)
"ut 677G wi%% not "e the ear that the +nited States returns to &o%i(in' the wor%d on a
'%o"a% s(a%e* And (onsiderin' the sti%%-mountin' (osts o! re'eneratin' mi%itar
(a&a"i%ities a!ter si5 ears o! (on!%i(t) man&ower e5&ansion and a(@uisitions) su(h !or(e
re(over mi'ht not even o((ur in 677A* The +nited States (ou%d have more ener' and
&o%iti(a% !reedom to a(t) "ut mi%itar rea%ities wi%% an(hor the %ion.s share o! -ashin'ton.s
attention on the Midd%e 0ast !or ? at the ver %east ? the ear to (ome* And
A!'hanistan) and there!ore 4a#istan) wi%% have to "e dea%t with) re'ard%ess o! what
ha&&ens in 1ra@*
This means 677G wi%% "e simi%ar to 677B in man was: 1t wi%% "e a ear o!
o&&ortunit !or those &owers that wou%d ta#e advanta'e o! the +nited States. on'oin'
distra(tion* ;owever) the wi%% !a(e a (om&%i(ation that was a"sent in 677B: a dead%ine*
The 1ra@i %o'Dam is "ro#en* +n%i#e in 677B) when 1ra@ a&&eared to "e a @ua'mire and
other &owers there!ore sensed end%ess o&&ortunit) those hosti%e to +*S* interests rea%i,e
that the on% have a %imited window in whi(h to resha&e their re'ions* 2ranted) this
window wi%% not (%ose in 677G) sin(e the +nited States wi%% need to not on% withdraw
!rom 1ra@ "ut a%so rest and restru(ture its !or(esK "ut the +nited States no %on'er is mired
in an o&en-ended (on!%i(t*
The state with the 'reatest need to ta#e advanta'e o! this +*S* o((u&ation) "ar
none) is the Russian Federation* Mos(ow #nows !u%% we%% that when the Ameri(ans are
!inished with their e!!orts in the Midd%e 0ast) the "u%# o! their attention wi%% return to the
!ormer Soviet +nion* -hen that ha&&ens) Russia wi%% !a(e a resur'ent +nited States that
(ommands a%%ian(es in Asia) 0uro&e and the Midd%e 0ast* Russia must use the on'oin'
+*S* entan'%ement in the Midd%e 0ast to rede!ine its immediate nei'h"orhood or ris# a
deve%o&in' 'eo&o%iti( !ar %ess "eni'n to Russian interests than -ashin'ton.s Co%d -ar
&o%i( o! (ontainment* Russia needs to move ? and it needs to move now*
And there are a host o! se(ondar &owers that wi%% "e intera(tin' within the matri5
o! Ameri(an a(tions in 677G* Some ? su(h as Sria and Saudi Ara"ia ? want to "e
in(%uded in the +*S* 1ra@i (a%(u%us and wi%% have their (han(e* Others ? name% South
Korea) Taiwan) Austra%ia and Ja&an ? are %oo#in' !or new was to wor# with
-ashin'ton as the ada&t to their own domesti( 'overnment transitions* A%% o! 0uro&e is
shi!tin' "a(# to a &ower stru(ture that has "een a"sent !or two 'enerations: the (on(ert o!
&owers) with a%% o! the insta"i%it and mistrust that im&%ies*
Others wi%% "e &ursuin' "o%d a'endas) not "e(ause o! the +nited States. distra(tion
"ut "e(ause the are risin' to &rominen(e in their own ri'ht* An'o%a wi%% rise as a maDor
A!ri(an &ower to riva% South A!ri(a and /i'eria* Bra,i% wi%% %a the 'roundwor# !or
reassertin' its %on'-dormant ro%e as a South Ameri(an su&er&ower* Tur#e ? now the
stron'est it has "een in a (entur ? wi%% re-emer'e as a maDor 'eo&o%iti(a% wei'ht in the
eastern Mediterranean) a%"eit one that is somewhat (on!used a"out its &riorities*
9uiet% deve%o&in' in the "a(#'round) the '%o"a% e(onom is under'oin' a no %ess
dramati( trans!ormation* -hi%e we e5&e(t oi% &ri(es to retreat somewhat in 677G a!ter
ears o! sur'es) their sustained stren'th (ontinues to shove a 'reat dea% o! (ash into the
hands o! the wor%d.s oi% e5&orters ? (ash that these (ountries (annot &ro(ess interna%%
and that there!ore wi%% either "e stored in do%%ars or invested in the on% (ountr with dee&
enou'h (a&ita% &oo%s to hand%e it: the +nited States* Add in the torrent o! e5&orts !rom the
Asian states) whi(h 'enerates near% identi(a% (ash-mana'ement &ro"%ems) and the resu%t
is a dee& do%%ari,ation o! the '%o"a% sstem even as the +*S* do%%ar 'ives 'round* The ta%#
on the !inan(ia% &a'es wi%% "e o! do%%ar Him&%in' Ameri(anI wea#ness) even as the
(urren( steadi% shi!ts !rom the one o! !irst resort to the true !oundation o! the entire
sstem*
This wi%% "e a ear in whi(h the +nited States a(hieves more su((ess in its !orei'n
&o%i(ies than it has sin(e the oustin' o! the Ta%i"an !rom A!'hanistan in %ate 6778* But the
a(tions o! others ? most nota"% a risin' Russia ? rather than +*S* a(hievements wi%%
determine the tenor and !ur o! the ne5t maDor '%o"a% (%ash*
A% 9aeda) A!'hanistan and the 2ood -ar
;eb) 28, 2008
There has "een tremendous (ontrovers over the +*S* invasion o! 1ra@) whi(h
(onsistent% has "een (ontrasted with A!'hanistan* Man o! those who o&&osed the 1ra@
war have su&&orted the war in A!'hanistanK indeed) the have ar'ued that amon' the
&ro"%ems with 1ra@ is that it diverts resour(es !rom A!'hanistan* A!'hanistan has "een
seen as an o"vious haven !or terrorism* This has meant the war in A!'hanistan o!ten has
"een &er(eived as havin' a dire(t e!!e(t on a% 9aeda and on the a"i%it o! radi(a% 1s%amists
to threaten the +nited States) whi%e 1ra@ has "een seen as unre%ated to the main war*
Su&&orters o! the war in 1ra@ su&&ort the war in A!'hanistan* O&&onents o! the war in
1ra@ a%so su&&ort A!'hanistan* 1! there is a 'ood war in our time) A!'hanistan is it*
1t is a%so a war that is in trou"%e* 1n the ees o! man) one o! the A!'han war.s
virtues has "een that /ATO has &arti(i&ated as an entit* But /ATO has (ome under
heav (riti(ism !rom +*S* 3e!ense Se(retar Ro"ert 2ates !or its &er!orman(e* Some)
%i#e the Canadians) are threatenin' to withdraw their troo&s i! other a%%ian(e mem"ers do
not (ontri"ute more heavi% to the mission* More im&ortant) the Ta%i"an have "een
!i'htin' an e!!e(tive and intensive insur'en(* Further (om&%i(atin' the situation) the
roots o! man o! the mi%itar and &o%iti(a% issues in A!'hanistan are !ound a(ross the
"order in 4a#istan*
1! the end'ame in 1ra@ is mur#) the end'ame in A!'hanistan is invisi"%e* The
+nited States) its a%%ies and the Ka"u% 'overnment are !i'htin' a ho%din' a(tion
strate'i(a%%* The do not have the !or(e to destro the Ta%i"an ? and in
(ounterinsur'en() the %on'er the insur'ents maintain their o&erationa% (a&a"i%it) the
more %i#e% the are to win* Further sti!!enin' the Ta%i"an reso%ve is the !a(t that) whi%e
insur'ents have nowhere to 'o) !orei'ners (an a%was de(ide to 'o home*
To understand the status o! the war in A!'hanistan) we must "e'in with what
ha&&ened "etween AP88 and ear% 6776* A% 9aeda had its &rimar (ommand and trainin'
!a(i%ities in A!'hanistan* The Ta%i"an had (ome to &ower in a (ivi% war amon' A!'hans
that "ro#e out a!ter the Soviet withdrawa%* The Ta%i"an had (%ose %in#s to the 4a#istani
1nter-Servi(es 1nte%%i'en(e H1S1I* -hi%e there was an ideo%o'i(a% a!!init "etween the two)
there was a%so a 'eo&o%iti(a% attra(tion* The Soviet invasion o! A!'hanistan (on(erned
4a#istan 'rave%* 1ndia and the Soviets were a%i'ned) and the 4a#istanis !eared "ein'
(au'ht in a vise* The 4a#istanis thus were ea'er to (oo&erate with the Ameri(ans and
Saudis in su&&ortin' 1s%amist !i'hters a'ainst the Soviets* A!ter the Soviets %e!t and the
+nited States %ost interest in A!'hanistan) the 4a#istanis wanted to !i%% the va(uum* Their
su&&ort o! the Ta%i"an served 4a#istani nationa% se(urit interests and the re%i'ious
&ro(%ivities o! a %ar'e se'ment o! the 1S1*
A!ter AP88) the +nited States saw A!'hanistan as its main &ro"%em* A% 9aeda)
whi(h was not A!'han "ut an internationa% 1s%amist 'rou&) had re(eived san(tuar !rom
the Ta%i"an* 1! the +nited States was to have an (han(e o! de!eatin' a% 9aeda) it wou%d
"e in A!'hanistan* A means toward that end was destroin' the Ta%i"an 'overnment* This
was not "e(ause the Ta%i"an itse%! re&resented a dire(t threat to the +nited States "ut
"e(ause a% 9aeda.s &resen(e in A!'hanistan did*
The +nited States wanted to a(t @ui(#% and de(isive% in order to disru&t a%
9aeda* A dire(t invasion o! A!'hanistan was there!ore not an o&tion* First) it wou%d ta#e
man months to de&%o +*S* !or(es* Se(ond) there was no &ra(ti(a% &%a(e to de&%o them*
The 1ranians wou%dn.t a((e&t +*S* !or(es on their soi% and the 4a#istanis were !ar !rom
ea'er to see the Ta%i"an to&&%ed* Basin' troo&s in TaDi#istan) +,"e#istan and
Tur#menistan a%on' the northern "order o! A!'hanistan was an o&tion "ut a%so a %o'isti(a%
ni'htmare* 1t wou%d "e we%% into the s&rin' o! 6776 "e!ore an invasion was &ossi"%e) and
the !ear o! a% 9aeda.s a(tions in the meantime was intense*
The +nited States there!ore de(ided not to invade A!'hanistan* 1nstead) it made
dea%s with 'rou&s that o&&osed the Ta%i"an* 1n the /orth) -ashin'ton a%%ied with the
/orthern A%%ian(e) a 'rou& with (%ose ties to the Russians* 1n the -est) the +nited States
a%%ied with 4ersian 'rou&s under the in!%uen(e o! 1ran* The +nited States made &o%iti(a%
arran'ements with Mos(ow and Tehran to a%%ow a((ess to their A!'han a%%ies* The
Russians and 1ranians "oth dis%i#ed the Ta%i"an and were @uite (ontent to he%&* The
mo"i%i,ed A!'han 'rou&s a%so o&&osed the Ta%i"an and %oved the %ar'e sums o! mone
+*S* inte%%i'en(e o&eratives &rovided them*
These 'rou&s &rovided the !or(e !or the mission* The &rimar +*S* &resen(e
(onsisted o! severa% hundred troo&s !rom +*S* S&e(ia% O&erations Command) a%on' with
C1A &ersonne%* The +nited States a%so "rou'ht a 'reat dea% o! air &ower) "oth /av and
Air For(e) into the "att%e* The sma%% +*S* 'round !or(e was to serve as a &o%iti(a% %iaison
with the A!'han 'rou&s atta(#in' the Ta%i"an) to &rovide a((ess to what wea&ons were
avai%a"%e !or the A!'han !or(es and) a"ove a%%) to (oordinate air su&&ort !or the A!'hans
a'ainst (on(entrations o! Ta%i"an !i'hters* Airstri#es "e'an a month a!ter AP88*
-hi%e -ashin'ton turned out an e5traordinar &o%iti(a% and (overt &er!orman(e)
the +nited States did not invade* Rather) it a(@uired armies in A!'hanistan &re&ared to
(arr out the mission and &rovided them with su&&ort and air &ower* The o&eration did
not de!eat the Ta%i"an* 1nstead) it !or(ed them to ma#e a &o%iti(a% and mi%itar de(ision*
4o%iti(a% &ower in A!'hanistan does not (ome !rom the (ities* 1t (omes !rom the
(ountrside) whi%e the (ities are the &ri,e* The Ta%i"an (ou%d de!end the (ities on% "
massin' !or(es to "%o(# atta(#s " other A!'han !a(tions* But when the massed their
!or(es) the Ta%i"an were vu%nera"%e to air atta(#s* A!ter e5&erien(in' the (onse@uen(es o!
+*S* air &ower) the Ta%i"an made a strate'i( de(ision* 1n the a"sen(e o! +*S* airstri#es)
the (ou%d de!eat their adversaries and had done so "e!ore* -hi%e the mi'ht have made a
!i'ht o! it) 'iven +*S* air &ower) the Ta%i"an se%e(ted a di!!erent %on'-term strate'*
Rather than attem&t to de!end the (ities) the Ta%i"an withdrew) dis&ersed and made
&%ans to re'rou&* Their 'oa% was to ho%d enou'h o! the (ountrside to maintain their
&o%iti(a% in!%uen(e* As in their (am&ai'n a'ainst the Soviets) the Ta%i"an understood that
their A!'han enemies wou%d not &ursue them) and that over time) their a"i%it to (ondu(t
sma%%-s(a%e o&erations wou%d ne'ate the va%ue o! +*S* air&ower and draw the Ameri(ans
into a di!!i(u%t !i'ht on un!avora"%e terms*
The +nited States was not &arti(u%ar% distur"ed " the out(ome* 1t was not a!ter
the Ta%i"an "ut a% 9aeda* 1t a&&ears ? and mu(h o! this remains mur# ? that the
(ommand (e%% o! a% 9aeda es(a&ed !rom A!'han !or(es and +*S* S&e(ia% O&erations
&ersonne% at Tora Bora and s%i&&ed a(ross the "order into 4a#istan* 05a(t% what
ha&&ened is un(%ear) "ut it is (%ear that a% 9aeda.s (ommand (e%% was not destroed* The
!i'ht a'ainst a% 9aeda &rodu(ed a &artia% vi(tor* A% 9aeda (%ear% was disru&ted and
re%o(ated ? and was denied its san(tuar* A num"er o! its o&eratives were (a&tured)
!urther de'radin' its o&erationa% (a&a"i%it*

The A!'han (am&ai'n there!ore had these out(omes:

A% 9aeda was de'raded "ut not e%iminated*
The Ta%i"an remained an inta(t !i'htin' !or(e) "ut the +nited States never rea%%
e5&e(ted them to (ommit sui(ide " massin' !or +*S* B-56 stri#es*
The +nited States had never invaded A!'hanistan and had made no &%ans to
o((u& it*
A!'hanistan was never the issue) and the Ta%i"an were a su"ordinate matter*
A!ter mu(h o! a% 9aeda.s "ase %ost its san(tuar in A!'hanistan and had to
re%o(ate to 4a#istan) the war in A!'hanistan "e(ame a sideshow !or the +*S*
mi%itar*
Over time) the +nited States and /ATO "rou'ht a"out 57)777 troo&s to
A!'hanistan* Their ho&e was that ;amid Kar,ai.s 'overnment wou%d "ui%d a !or(e that
(ou%d de!eat the Ta%i"an* But the &ro"%em was that) a"sent +*S* and /ATO !or(es) the
Ta%i"an had mana'ed to de!eat the !or(es now arraed a'ainst them on(e "e!ore) in the
A!'han (ivi% war* The +*S* (ommitment o! troo&s was enou'h to ho%d the maDor (ities
and (ondu(t o!!ensive o&erations that #e&t the Ta%i"an o!! "a%an(e) "ut the +nited States
(ou%d not &ossi"% de!eat them* The Soviets had de&%oed E77)777 troo&s in A!'hanistan
and (ou%d not de!eat the muDahideen* /ATO) with 57)777 troo&s and !a(in' the same
shi!tin' a%%ian(e o! !a(tions and tri"es that the Soviets (ou%dn.t &u%% to'ether) (ou%d not
&a(i! A!'hanistan*
But van@uishin' the Ta%i"an sim&% was not the 'oa%* The 'oa% was to maintain a
&resen(e that (ou%d (ondu(t (overt o&erations in 4a#istan %oo#in' !or a% 9aeda and #ee&
a% 9aeda !rom returnin' to A!'hanistan* 4art o! this 'oa% (ou%d "e a(hieved " #ee&in' a
&ro-Ameri(an 'overnment in Ka"u% under Kar,ai* The strate' was to #ee& a% 9aeda o!!
"a%an(e) &reserve Kar,ai and %aun(h o&erations a'ainst the Ta%i"an desi'ned to &revent
them !rom "e(omin' too e!!e(tive and a''ressive* The entire +*S* mi%itar wou%d have
"een insu!!i(ient to de!eat the Ta%i"anK the war in A!'hanistan thus was sim&% a ho%din'
a(tion*
The ho%din' a(tion was made a%% the more di!!i(u%t in that the Ta%i"an (ou%d not "e
iso%ated !rom their sour(es o! su&&% or san(tuarK 4a#istan &rovided "oth* 1t rea%% didn.t
matter whether this was "e(ause 4resident 4erve, Musharra!.s 'overnment intended to
&%a "oth sides) whether !a(tions inside the 4a#istani mi%itar maintained (%ose a!!inities
with the Ta%i"an or whether the 4a#istani 'overnment and arm sim&% (ou%dn.t (ontro%
tri"a% e%ements %oa% to a% 9aeda* -hat did matter was that a%% a%on' the A!'han "order ?
&arti(u%ar% in southern A!'hanistan ? su&&%ies !%owed in !rom 4a#istan) and the Ta%i"an
moved into san(tuaries in 4a#istan !or rest and re'rou&in'*
The Ta%i"an was and is o&eratin' on their own terrain* The have e5(e%%ent
inte%%i'en(e a"out the movements o! /ATO !or(es and a !%e5i"%e and su!!i(ient su&&%
%ine a%%owin' them to maintain and in(rease o&erations and (ontro% o! the (ountrside*
;avin' retreated in 6778) the Ta%i"an sstemati(a%% re'rou&ed) rearmed and "e'an
o&eratin' as a traditiona% 'uerri%%a !or(e with an in(reased &en(hant !or sui(ide atta(#s*
As in Nietnam) the (ha%%en'e in !i'htin' a 'uerri%%a !or(e is to (ut it o!! !rom its
su&&%ies* The +nited States !ai%ed to interdi(t the ;o Chi Minh Trai%) and that a%%owed
men and materie% to move into South Nietnam unti% the +nited States %ost the a&&etite !or
war* 1n A!'hanistan) it is the same &ro"%em (om&ounded* First) the %ines o! su&&% into
4a#istan are even more (om&%e5 than the ;o Chi Minh trai% was* Se(ond) the (ountr that
&rovides the su&&%ies is !orma%% a%%ied with the +nited States* 4a#istan is (ommitted "oth
to (uttin' those %ines o! su&&% and aidin' the +nited States in (a&turin' a% 9aeda in its
/orthwest* That is the &rimar mission) "ut the su"sidiar mission remains #ee&in' the
Ta%i"an within to%era"%e %eve%s o! a(tivit and &reventin' them !rom &osin' a threat to
more and more o! the A!'han (ountrside and (ities* There has "een a 'reat dea% o! !o(us
on 4a#istan.s assistan(e in its own northwestern re'ions a'ainst a% 9aeda) "ut mu(h %ess
on the %ine o! su&&% maintainin' the Ta%i"an in southern A!'hanistan* And as 4a#istan
has attem&ted to &ursue a &o%i( o! "a%an(in' its re%ations with the Ta%i"an and with the
+nited States) the 4a#istani 'overnment now !a(es a maDor Dihadist insur'en( on its own
tur!*
A!'hanistan there!ore is not ? and in some was never has "een ? the (enter o!
'ravit o! the (ha%%en'e !a(in' the +nited States* O((u&in' A!'hanistan is in(on(eiva"%e
without a !undamenta% shi!t in 4a#istan.s &o%i(ies or (a&a"i%ities* But !or(in' 4a#istan to
(han'e its &o%i(ies in southern A!'hanistan rea%% is &oint%ess) sin(e the +nited States
doesn.t have enou'h !or(es there to ta#e advanta'e o! a 4a#istani shi!t) and -ashin'ton
doesn.t (are a"out the Ta%i"an in the %on' run*
The rea% issue is the hardest to determine* 1s a% 9aeda &rime ? not a% 9aeda
enthusiasts or sm&athi,ers who are a"%e to (arr out %o(a% sui(ide "om"in's) "ut the
(a&a"%e (overt o&eratives we saw on AP88 ? sti%% o&erationa%< And even i! it is de'raded)
'iven enou'h time) wi%% a% 9aeda "e a"%e to re'rou& and ram& u& its o&erationa%
(a&a"i%it< 1! so) then the +nited States must maintain its &osture in A!'hanistan) as
%imited and un"a%an(ed as it is* The +nited States mi'ht even need to (onsider e5tendin'
the war to 4a#istan in an attem&t to sea% the "order i! the Ta%i"an (ontinue to stren'then*
But i! a% 9aeda is not o&erationa%) then the rationa%e !or 'uardin' Ka"u% and Kar,ai
"e(omes @uestiona"%e*
-e have no wa o! determinin' whether a% 9aeda remains o&erationa%K we are not
sure anone (an assess that with (ertaint* Certain%) we have not seen si'ni!i(ant
o&erations !or a %on' time) and +*S* (overt (a&a"i%ities shou%d have "een a"%e to wea#en
a% 9aeda over the &ast seven ears* But i! a% 9aeda remains a(tive) (a&a"%e and in
northwestern 4a#istan) then the +*S* &resen(e in A!'hanistan wi%% (ontinue*
As the situation in 1ra@ sett%es down ? and it a&&ears to "e doin' so ? more
!o(us wi%% "e drawn to A!'hanistan) the war that even o&&onents o! 1ra@ have
a(#now%ed'ed as a&&ro&riate and im&ortant* But it is im&ortant to understand what this
war (onsists o!: 1t is a ho%din' a(tion a'ainst an enem that (annot "e de!eated Ha"sent
'reater !or(e than is avai%a"%eI with o&en %ines o! su&&% into a (ountr a%%ied with the
+nited States* 1t is a ho%din' a(tion waitin' !or (ertain #now%ed'e o! the status o! a%
9aeda) #now%ed'e that %i#e% wi%% not (ome* A!'hanistan is a war without e5it and a war
without vi(tor* The &o%iti(s are im&enetra"%e) and it is even di!!i(u%t to !i'ure out
whether a%%ies %i#e 4a#istan are intendin' to he%& or are (a&a"%e o! he%&in'*
Thus) whi%e it ma "e a "etter war than 1ra@ in some sense) it is not a war that (an
"e won or even ended* 1t Dust 'oes on*
Tunisia: A Brush with A% 9aedaMs /orth A!ri(an /ode
2arch 10, 2008
A% 9aeda.s /orth A!ri(an node is ho%din' two Austrian tourists who were #idna&&ed Fe"*
66 in Tunisia) a((ordin' to a statement aired Mar(h 87 on A% Ja,eera te%evision* The
statement warned that other !orei'n tourists in Tunisia are a%so at ris# o! "ein' #idna&&ed*
The 'rou& has not et made demands or announ(ed (onditions !or the re%ease o! the two
hosta'es) "ut it said that the #idna&&in' was (arried out in res&onse to 1srae%i mi%itar
a(tions in 2a,a*
Over the &ast !ew ears) A% 9aeda in the 1s%ami( Ma'hre" HA91MI has (arried out
o&erations in various &arts o! northern A!ri(a* -hi%e A%'eria has %on' "een a stron'ho%d
!or 1s%amist mi%itant a(tivit) A91M re(ent% has a%so (arried out %imited atta(#s in
Mauritania and Moro((o* This %atest in(ident re&resents not on% a !urther s&read o! the
'rou& 'eo'ra&hi(a%% "ut a%so a shi!t in ta(ti(s to in(%ude #idna&&in'*
A((ordin' to a statement re%eased " the Austrian Forei'n Ministr) the two
tourists were %ast heard !rom in mid-Fe"ruar when the were in the southern Tunisian
(it o! Matmata* The ministr added that the &air was trave%in' around the (ountr in an
RN with Austrian %i(ense &%ates) and that the mi'ht have "een headed west) in the
dire(tion o! the A%'erian "order* The A%'erian "order re'ions in Tunisia are the areas in
the (ountr where tourists are most sus(e&ti"%e to #idna&&in' ? severa% tourists were
re&orted a"du(ted in the A%'erian-Tunisian "order re'ion in 6776 and 677E) a((ordin' to
the +*S* State 3e&artment*
1t is un(%ear e5a(t% where the two were #idna&&ed) thou'h one &ossi"i%it is that
the "e(ame %ost and ended u& on the A%'erian side o! the "order* 1s%amist mi%itant
a(tivit has "een !ar more e5tensive in A%'eria than in Tunisia) and an num"er o!
mi%itant 'rou&s &ro"a"% wou%d have noti(ed two Austrians drivin' an RN around the
(ountr* 1n !a(t) other 'rou&s mi'ht have (arried out the a"du(tion and then %ater handed
the Austrians over to A91MK that wou%d e5&%ain wh two wee#s &assed "etween their
a"du(tion and the announ(ement that the were "ein' he%d*
0ven i! the tourists did not themse%ves (ross the "order into A%'eria) it is &ossi"%e
that the are now "ein' he%d there* A91M has a mu(h more e5tensive %o'isti(s networ# in
&%a(e there than in Tunisia) and su(h a networ# wou%d "e ne(essar in order to ho%d a &air
o! hosta'es !or severa% wee#s*
A91M.s &otentia% to s&read a(ross /orth A!ri(a has "een a (on(ern in the re'ion
!or some time) "ut thus !ar the A%'erian node has "een the on% one to deve%o&
su((ess!u%%* A%thou'h there has not et "een an a(tive indi'enous Tunisian mi%itant
movement) there has "een some histor o! 1s%ami( mi%itants with (onne(tions to Tunisia
? !or instan(e) Tunisians have "een arrested in A%'eria !or %in#s to mi%itant 'rou&s there*
;owever) an e5odus o! mi%itants !rom 1ra@ "a(# to their home (ountries is (ertain% (ause
!or 'reater worr !or Tunisia ? as we%% as !or other /orth A!ri(an (ountries ? as it raises
the s&e(ter o! e5&erien(ed mi%itants (arrin' out atta(#s and #idna&&in's mu(h (%oser to
home*
A!'hanistan) 4a#istan: A Bin Faden Ta&eMs Rhetori(
2arch 20, 2008
The C1A (on!irmed Mar(h 67 that an audio messa'e attri"uted to a% 9aeda %eader
Osama "in Faden &osted on the 1nternet on Mar(h 8A is authenti(* A +*S* inte%%i'en(e
o!!i(ia% (ou%d not) however) (on!irm when the messa'e was re(orded* 1n the unusua%%
short messa'e addressed to 0uro&eans) the (hie! o! the '%o"a% Dihadist networ# atta(#s the
-est !or &u"%ishin' drawin's o! the 4ro&het Mohammed deemed o!!ensive to Mus%ims*
Bin Faden ma#es a num"er o! #e &oints) in(%udin' a((usin' 4o&e Benedi(t ON1
o! &%ain' a #e ro%e in insti'atin' a new (rusade a'ainst Mus%ims in the !orm o! the
insu%tin' drawin's o! Mohammed* The a% 9aeda %eader sas that " insu%tin' the &ro&het)
the -est has a"andoned a%% mora%s and eti@uette o! (on!%i(t) des(ri"in' it as worse than
#i%%in' Mus%im (ivi%ians*
The Dihadist %eader a%so atta(#s Saudi Kin' A"du%%ah !or not &uttin' an end to the
situation des&ite his a%%e'ed a"i%it to do so 'iven that the #in' !or(ed the British
'overnment to o&en an investi'ation into the em"e,,%ement o! "i%%ions in the a%-
Camamah arms dea%* Bin Faden a%so re!ers to !ormer British 4rime Minister Ton B%air
as the new re&resentative o! the Midd%e 0ast 9uartet) he%&in' date the messa'e* ;e
(on(%udes his messa'e with a warnin' that i! the -est does not sto& insu%tin'
Mohammed) it shou%d "e &re&ared !or a res&onse !rom the Dihadist movement*
Thou'h he addresses the -est) "in Faden.s tar'et audien(e is the Mus%im wor%d*
Su&&ort there !or Dihadists has su!!ered a si'ni!i(ant de(%ine over the %ast !ew ears) "ut
anti--estern sentiment remains hi'h* Thou'h the ta&e see#s to e5&%oit the (artoon issue
to reverse this wanin' su&&ort !or Dihadism) it &ro"a"% wi%% not have mu(h im&a(t
"eond the %imited se'ment o! the Mus%im wor%d that remains sm&atheti( to the Dihadist
(ause*
/othin' a"out the (ontents o! the ta&e &roves it was made re(ent%* 0verthin'
"in Faden dis(usses is o%d news) meanin' this &ro"a"% is an o%der ta&e that on% now has
sur!a(ed* The de%a "etween &rodu(tion and "road(astin' su''ests that the
(ommuni(ations sstem has su!!ered a de(%ine) as some &revious ta&es rea(hed the &u"%i(
domain within a wee# o! their &rodu(tion*
On% three "in Faden videos have emer'ed sin(e his %ate 6778 disa&&earan(e !rom
Tora Bora* ;is other re(ordin's have "een either audiota&es or videos (ontainin' voi(e
messa'es over o%d ima'es o! the a% 9aeda %eader* 1ntri'uin'%) a!ter a !%urr o! most%
video (ommuni@uSs !rom "in Faden.s de&ut) Aman a%-Jawahiri) durin' 6775-6776) the
Dihadist /o* 6 a%so sto&&ed issuin' ta&es* Meanwhi%e) other a% 9aeda mem"ers %i#e a%-
9aeda ideo%o'ue A"u Caha a%-Fi"i and the 'rou&.s +*S* o&erative) Adam 2adahn) have
a&&eared in videos* This anoma% unders(ores a% 9aeda.s vu%nera"i%it*
The %atest (ommuni@uS va%idates what STRATFOR has "een sain' !or some
ears now) name%) that the Dihadists have (eased to "e a strate'i( threat to the +nited
States* Thou'h the remain a ta(ti(a% threat) the reversa% o! their !ortunes in 1ra@ means
the are 'eo'ra&hi(a%% %imited to A!'hanistan and 4a#istan) where the '%o"a% Dihadist
%eadershi& is "ased and a%-9aeda and the Ta%i"an are demonstratin' their o&erationa%
&rowess* -hi%e atta(#s in the -est) es&e(ia%% 0uro&e) remain a &ossi"i%it) the Dihadists
have threatened 0uro&e !or !our ears* A&art !rom the Madrid and Fondon "om"in's)
the have not demonstrated the a"i%it to ma#e 'ood on their threats*
The ;eathrow 4%ot Tria%: Retros&e(tion and 1m&%i(ations
Apri 9, 2008
The tria% o! ei'ht men a((used o! &arti(i&atin' in a 6776 &%ot to "om" a series o!
air%ine !%i'hts "e'an A&ri% E in Fondon* The men are (har'ed with (ons&ira( to (ommit
murder and &re&arin' a(ts o! terrorism in (onne(tion with the &%ot) whi(h a%%e'ed% (a%%ed
!or usin' %i@uid e5&%osives to "rin' down at %east seven &%anes !%in' !rom Fondon.s
;eathrow Air&ort to (ities in the +nited States and Canada*
The tria% is e5&e(ted to %ast severa% months) "ut severa% interestin' !a(ts a%read
have emer'ed re'ardin' the &%ot and the &eo&%e a((used o! &arti(i&atin' in it* A%thou'h a
(onsidera"%e amount o! media attention has "een !o(used on the reve%ation that two Air
Canada !%i'hts Hone to Montrea% and one to TorontoI were amon' the !irst seven !%i'hts
tar'eted ? the others were +nited Air%ines !%i'hts to -ashin'ton) Chi(a'o and San
Fran(is(o) and Ameri(an Air%ines !%i'hts to Chi(a'o and /ew Cor# ? &erha&s the most
interestin' reve%ation has "een the a%%e'ed ro%e o! Mohammed 2u%,ar*
2u%,ar re&orted% !%ew into the +nited Kin'dom in Ju% 6776 usin' a !raudu%ent
identit* ;is means o! trave% and his ro%e in the (ons&ira( su''est he was an o&erationa%
(ommander who had "een sent !rom a"road to assist the 'rassroots &%otters with their
atta(# &%ans* The invo%vement o! an o&erationa% (ommander sent " the a% 9aeda (ore
%eadershi& and (har'ed with wor#in' with 'rassroots o&eratives to or(hestrate an atta(# is
what we (onsider the a% 9aeda 8*7 o&erationa% mode%*
-hen (om"ined with other indi(ators) 2u%,ar.s ro%e and trave% &attern seem to
(on!irm the invo%vement o! the a% 9aeda (ore %eadershi& in the &%ot* The &arti(i&ation o!
the (ore or'ani,ation sheds new %i'ht on the "ehavior o! the (ore a% 9aeda %eaders in
6776) and 'ives us some insi'ht into &%ots the mi'ht sti%% "e &%annin'*
"ecurre0+ T,e.es
As we noted a!ter the ;eathrow &%ot (ame to %i'ht) the s(heme shared severa%
themes with other thwarted or su((ess!u% a% 9aeda &%ots) in(%udin' the (hoi(e o! air(ra!t
as tar'ets) the notion o! mu%ti&%e) simu%taneous stri#es and the use o! modu%ar im&rovised
e5&%osive devi(es) whi(h wou%d have "een smu''%ed a"oard the air(ra!t in (arr-on
%u''a'e* Moreover) whoever was invo%ved in &%annin' the o&eration shared a% 9aeda.s
&en(hant !or =thin#in' "i'*>
As ori'ina%% (on(eived) a% 9aeda.s 6778 =&%anes o&eration> was to invo%ve the
simu%taneous hiDa(#in's o! 87 air(ra!t de&artin' !rom "oth the 0ast and -est Coasts o!
the +nited States* /ine o! the air(ra!t were to "e either "%own u& in-!%i'ht or s%ammed
into tar'eted "ui%din's* The 87th &%ane was to "e %anded at a +*S* air&ort and) a!ter a%% the
adu%t ma%e &assen'ers were #i%%ed) a s&ee(h was to "e de%ivered out%inin' a% 9aeda.s
'rievan(es with the +nited States* A% 9aeda.s a&e5 %eaders ? Osama "in Faden) Aman
a%-Jawahiri and Mohammed Ate! ? eventua%% a'reed to a s(a%ed-down version o! the
&%anes o&eration invo%vin' !our air(ra!t) whi(h was (arried out Se&t* 88) 6778*
The -est Coast &ortion o! the &%an was s&un o!! as a se&arate o&eration that was
to have o((urred in O(to"er 6778) "ut whi(h re&orted% was &ost&oned severa% times !or
various reasons* This o&eration) a%so #nown as the Fi"rar Tower 4%ot) was (om&romised
and disru&ted in 6776*
These themes a%so were eviden(ed in the &%ot to "om" Ameri(an Air%ines F%i'ht
6E in 3e(em"er 6778* 1n that &%an) Ri(hard Reid su((ess!u%% smu''%ed his =shoe "om">
a"oard the air(ra!t* The attem&t !ai%ed on% "e(ause Reid tried to %i'ht the "om".s !use in
the &assen'er (a"in Hrather than a more se(%uded area) su(h as a restroomI and was
sto&&ed " a !%i'ht attendant and &assen'ers*
The 6776 ;eathrow &%ot) however) "ears the stron'est resem"%an(e to O&eration
BoDin#a) whi(h Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed) a%on' with his ne&hew A"de% Basit) he%&ed to
&%an and !inan(e whi%e %ivin' in Mani%a) the 4hi%i&&ines) in the mid-8AA7s* The ta(ti(a%
simi%arities in(%ude the tar'etin' o! mu%ti&%e +*S*-!%a''ed air(ra!t trave%in' to the +nited
States) the use o! modu%ar e5&%osive devi(es ? whi(h were to "e assem"%ed in-!%i'ht
a!ter o&eratives a((essed their (arr-on "a''a'e ? and the use o! %i@uid e5&%osives*
The s(o&e o! the ;eathrow &%ot a%so hi'h%i'hts another theme (ommon in a%
9aeda &%ots: a tenden( to thin# "i'* This theme) whi(h was re!%e(ted in the ori'ina%
&%anes o&eration and in BoDin#a) was a%so the undoin' o! a% 9aeda atta(#s su(h as the
8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in') the Mi%%ennium Bom" 4%ot and an attem&ted stri#e
a'ainst the +SS The Su%%ivans o!! the (oast o! Cemen in Januar 6777* 1ndeed) the s(o&e
o! the ;eathrow &%ot and the need to in(%ude man &eo&%e in its e5e(ution is %i#e% what
o&ened the door !or a British 'overnment in!ormant to &enetrate the 'rou& and %earn o!
the &%ans*
1o,a..e( 2ul<ar
A (%ose %oo# at the detai%s emer'in' !rom the tria% o! 2u%,ar and the seven other
sus&e(ts a%so revea%s other re(urrin' themes) in(%udin' the use o! do(ument !raud* 2u%,ar
entered the +nited Kin'dom on Ju% 8G) 6776) usin' a !raudu%ent South A!ri(an &ass&ort
in the name o! A%ta! Ravat* ;e re&orted% was trave%in' with his new wi!e and) in order to
se(ure a visa) a%%e'ed that he was on his honemoon* The &air even s&ent a (ou&%e o! das
in Mauritius a!ter %eavin' South A!ri(a in order to ma#e the honemoon (over a&&ear
more (onvin(in'* As a British (iti,en) 2u%,ar had the ri'ht to a British &ass&ort and thus
(ou%d have trave%ed to the +nited Kin'dom usin' his own identit* The on% reason to
(ommit do(ument !raud was to (on(ea% his identit*
As seen in &ast (ases invo%vin' o&erationa% (ommanders su(h as Basit and Ahmed
Ressam) it is !air% (ommon !or o&erationa% (ommanders to (ommit &ass&ort !raud* 1n
!a(t) re(overed a% 9aeda o&eration manua%s en(oura'e usin' !raudu%ent do(uments to
hide one.s identit) enter a (ountr i%%e'a%% or (ontinue to sta in a (ountr a!ter a
%e'itimate visa has e5&ired* Basit had more than a do,en a%iases that we #now o!)
in(%udin' the we%%-#nown !raudu%ent 1ra@i &ass&ort in the name o! Ram,i Couse! ? the
name " whi(h man &eo&%e sti%% mista#en% re!er to him* 2u%,ar.s use o! South A!ri(a as
a sour(e o! !raudu%ent do(uments and a transit &oint to 0uro&e a%so e5em&%i!ies a trend
we have "een wat(hin' !or some time now*
-hen British &o%i(e arrested 2u%,ar on Au'* A) 6776) he to%d them his name was
A%ta! Ravat and &rodu(ed his South A!ri(an do(uments* 1t was on% a!ter runnin'
!in'er&rint (he(#s that the determined ? two das a!ter his arrest ? that he rea%% was a
British (iti,en named Mohammed 2u%,ar* -hen @uestioned " &o%i(e) 2u%,ar admitted
he was not on his honemoon) thou'h he then said he was a missionar with the Ta"%i'hi
Jamaat and was in the +nited Kin'dom on a &rose%ti,in' mission*
As seen in &ast atta(#s ? the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in') the atta(# on
the +SS Co%e) the 0ast A!ri(a em"ass "om"in's and others that !o%%owed the a% 9aeda
8*7 o&erationa% mode% ? the o&erationa% &%anner does not intend to "e #i%%ed or (a&tured*
;e !%ees and %ives to !i'ht another da* 1n o&erations in whi(h an o&erative &%ans to "e
#i%%ed) su(h as AP88 and the Ju% B) 6775 Fondon atta(#s) there is no need !or him to hide
his true identit* 2u%,ar.s use o! a !raudu%ent identit su''ests he intended to !%ee a!ter
the atta(#* This theor is su&&orted " the !a(t that British authorities re(overed a num"er
o! videota&es (ontainin' the wi%%s and sui(ide de(%arations o! various mem"ers o! the
a%%e'ed (e%%) "ut the did not re(over su(h a video !eaturin' 2u%,ar*
F)++)05 +,e !)eces To5e+,er
;indsi'ht is a wonder!u% thin' and when we use it to &%u' the 6776 ;eathrow &%ot
into the "i' &i(ture o! a% 9aeda "ehavior durin' that time) we (an "e'in to ma#e some
assum&tions as to the e5tent o! the (ore %eadershi&.s invo%vement*
A((ordin' to (ourt testimon) the British 'overnment "e'an to monitor man o!
the men a%%e'ed% invo%ved in the &%ot short% a!ter the Ju% B) 6775 Fondon atta(#s* 1t
a%so has "een re&orted that) %i#e Mohammed Siddi@ue Khan) severa% o! the men invo%ved
in the 6776 &%ot had trave%ed to 4a#istan and re(eived trainin' at Dihadist (am&s* 1t a%so
a&&ears that 2u%,ar was sent " the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi& to Fondon in Ju% 6776 to
su&ervise the e5e(ution o! this &%ot* Jud'in' !rom &ast (ases) 2u%,ar.s &re&aration !or the
trave% to Fondon %i#e% "e'an severa% months &rior to his a(tua% arriva% in the +nited
Kin'dom* A%so Dud'in' !rom &ast (ases) a &%an o! this ma'nitude) invo%vin' so man
air(ra!t) a%most (ertain% wou%d have to have "een a&&roved " the a% 9aeda a&e5
%eadershi&* The %eadershi& &ro"a"% a%so &rovided the !undin' !or the o&eration) in(%udin'
the more than L6B8)777 in (ash the 'rou& re&orted% &aid !or the !%at the &ur(hased in
Fondon) where the im&rovised e5&%osive mi5tures were to "e manu!a(tured*
1! those assum&tions are indeed true) then this &%ot ma ver we%% "e one o! the
o&erations Osama "in Faden was re!eren(in' in his Jan* 8A) 6776) messa'e when he said)
=The de%a in simi%ar o&erations ha&&enin' in Ameri(a has not "een "e(ause o! !ai%ure to
"rea# throu'h our se(urit measures* The o&erations are under &re&aration and ou wi%%
see them in our homes the minute the are throu'h Hwith &re&arationsI) with 2od.s
&ermission*>
The &re&arations !or this atta(# a%so had &i(#ed u& momentum " mid-6776 when
the a% 9aeda (ore %eadershi& was underta#in' what we re!erred to at the time as a media
"%it,* 1ndeed) Dust as the tra!!i( !rom this "%it, was "e'innin' to s%ow down) As-Saha"
re%eased a video tit%ed) =-i%% o! the Kni'hts o! the Fondon Raid H4art 6I)> whi(h
(ontained the %ast wi%% o! Fondon "om"er Sheh,ad Tanweer* This video was re%eased one
da "e!ore the anniversar o! the Ju% B atta(#s and 86 das "e!ore 2u%,ar arrived in the
+nited Kin'dom*
/ine das a!ter 2u%,ar.s arriva%) and two wee#s "e!ore the arrests were made) As-
Saha" re%eased a video !eaturin' a%-Jawahiri* The "a(#dro& !eatured three %ar'e
&hoto'ra&hs: one o! Mohammed Ate! Ha% 9aeda.s senior mi%itar (hie! who was #i%%ed in
A!'hanistan in %ate 6778I) one o! AP88 o&erationa% (ommander Mohammed Atta and one
o! the "urnin' -or%d Trade Center towers*

1n the video) a%-Jawahiri dis(ussed a %e(ture Ate! 'ave in 6777 to a% 9aeda
trainees a"out 4a%estine* A((ordin' to his re(ountin') Atta ? who was amon' the
trainees ? as#ed) =-hat is the wa to de!eat the atta(# on 4a%estine<> A%-Jawahiri
su&&%ied his own answer in the video) sain' the nation that &rodu(ed the 8A =who shoo#
Ameri(a> is =(a&a"%e o! &rodu(in' dou"%e that num"er*>
1t (ou%d "e a (oin(iden(e that a %ar'e &%ot invo%vin' air(ra!t ? near% twi(e as
man as were hiDa(#ed on AP88 ? was thwarted on% two wee#s a!ter this video sur!a(ed*
But we are not "i' "e%ievers in (oin(iden(e ? nor do we "e%ieve there are o"vious Hor
even hiddenI messa'es in ever a% 9aeda messa'e* ;owever) to our minds the Ju% 6B
ta&e was a (%ear messa'e meant to "e viewed in retros&e(t ? that a% 9aeda was "ehind
the ;eathrow air%ine &%ot*
T,e o0+)0u)05 F)xa+)o0
More than anthin') the (urrent tria% is a reminder o! three thin's* First) had the
!irst wave o! atta(#s su((ess!u%% ta#en down the &%anes) it wou%d have "een ver di!!i(u%t
to determine how the e5&%osive devi(es had "een smu''%ed a"oard the air(ra!t* This
means it is entire% &ossi"%e the same ta(ti( wou%d have "een used in su"se@uent waves o!
atta(#s*
Se(ond) !or some reason in 6776 the a% 9aeda %eadershi&.s ea'erness !or a
s&e(ta(u%ar atta(# a&&ears to have trum&ed their &er(eived need !or moderation* 1t was
the moderation o! &eo&%e %i#e Mohammed Ate! that reined in the enthusiasm o! the
'rou&.s idea%ists Hmen su(h as Kha%id Shei#h MohammedI and (aused them to s(a%e
down the 6778 &%anes o&eration to %ess than ha%! its ori'ina% si,e ? a measure that
im&roved o&erationa% se(urit and assisted in the AP88 &%ot.s eventua% su((ess*
Fina%%) a% 9aeda remains !i5ated on air(ra!t as tar'ets and) in s&ite o! (han'es in
se(urit &ro(edures sin(e AP88) air(ra!t remain vu%nera"%e to atta(#*
Cemen: A% 9aedaMs Resur'en(e
Apri 22, 2008
Statements re%eased " a% 9aeda in Cemen ? name%) in its &u"%i(ation) Sada a%-
Ma%ahim HThe 0(ho o! Batt%eI ? have &rovided !urther insi'ht into the 'rou&.s new
o&erationa% do(trine and tar'et- se%e(tion (riteria* Moreover) the ? a%on' with the
timin' o! atta(#s !o%%owin' Sada a%-Ma%ahim.s re%ease ? have &rovided a %ens throu'h
whi(h to ana%,e the evo%ution o! a% 9aeda in Cemen over the &ast !ew ears*
Al Qae(a )0 Ae.e0/s Lea(ers,)3
Fo%%owin' the atta(# on the +SS Co%e in 6777 and the Se&t* 88) 6778) atta(#s)
Cemen "e(ame a "att%e'round !or (ounterterrorism !or(es and a% 9aeda* There was initia%
su((ess in the !i'ht a'ainst a% 9aeda ? nota"%) the C1A-(ontro%%ed drone hit on then-
%eader o! a% 9aeda in Cemen A"u A%i a%-;arithi in %ate 6776 and the su"se@uent arrest o!
his re&%a(ement Muhammed ;amdi a%-Ahda% in %ate 677E* The (om"ination o! these
o&erations in su(h a short time &eriod he%&ed to (ri&&%e a% 9aeda in Cemen.s o&erationa%
(a&a"i%it momentari%*
-ith a re(ent in(rease in vio%en(e in Cemen) a% 9aeda a&&ears to "e resur'in'
under the %eadershi& o! /asir a%--ahashi) an ethni( Cemeni who s&ent time in
A!'hanistan whi%e servin' as a %ieutenant under Osama Bin Faden* ;e returned to Cemen
in 677E throu'h an e5tradition dea% with the 1ranian 'overnment and su"se@uent%
es(a&ed !rom a hi'h-se(urit &rison outside o! Sanaa in 6776 a%on' with Jama% a%-Badawi
H%eader o! the (e%% that (arried out the sui(ide "om"in' o! the +SS Co%eI* A%--ahashi
a%so maintains (%ose ties with 9asim a%-Rami) who was sus&e(ted o! havin' "een
invo%ved with the o&erationa% &%annin' o! the sui(ide atta(# on a 'rou& o! S&anish tourists
in Mari" in Ju% 677B*
The new %eadershi&.s esta"%ished ties with a% 9aeda &rime have 'iven it
e5&erien(e in %eadin' and o&eratin' a traditiona%% stru(tured a% 9aeda node and the
(onne(tions ne(essar to ma#e su(h a node su((ess!u%* 1n addition) the new senior
%eadershi& enDos ties to veterans o! a% 9aeda in Cemen) su(h as a%-Badawi* This) (ou&%ed
with the !a(t that a%--ahashi is an ethni( Cemeni) 'ives him the (redi"i%it and
(onne(tions needed to re(ruit new mem"ers and o&erate e!!e(tive% !or the !oreseea"%e
!uture*
-hi%e a drasti( in(rease in o&erationa% so&histi(ation has not "een seen et ? the
'rou& is (on(entratin' on sma%%-s(a%e atta(#s whi%e avoidin' sui(ide o&erations and %ar'e
"om"in's ? the node has demonstrated the a"i%it to %aun(h mu%ti&%e atta(#s in di!!erent
%o(ations within a short &eriod o! time* These atta(#s show that the 'rou& has ado&ted a
!air% traditiona% Dihadist tar'et set) (on(entratin' its e!!orts on sm"o%i( -estern tar'ets
Hre(ent% the +*S* 0m"ass in Sanaa and a -estern housin' (om&oundI) the ener' se(tor
HFren(h) Chinese and Canadian interestsI and e%ements o! the se(urit a&&aratus Hsma%%-
s(a%e atta(#s on se(urit !or(es in the Mari" &rovin(eI*
T,e %)50)f)ca0ce of %a(a alB1ala,).
A%on'side this 'rowth in o&erationa% (a&a"i%it) another trend has deve%o&ed that
(ou%d a%%ow anti(i&ation o! !urther in(idents in the short term*
An e%ement o! the 'rou&.s resur'en(e is evident in the re%ease o! &u"%i(
statements) re(ent% in the !orm o! a &u"%i(ation entit%ed Sada a%-Ma%ahim HThe 0(ho o!
Batt%eI* 1t has a&&eared on radi(a% 1s%amist -e" sites) with the !irst issue sur!a(in' in
Januar* -hi%e that !irst issue was !air% sim&%isti() the se(ond in(%uded a statement " a
!i'hter who e5&%ained his rationa%e !or (hoosin' to sta and !i'ht in Cemen instead o!
trave%in' to 1ra@: ;e staed in order to atta(# the oi% and ener' se(tors in Cemen that are
he%&in' to !ue% -estern o&erations in 1ra@ and e%sewhere* This statement is in %ine with
the atta(#s on the Chinese oi% !ie%d and the Fren(h &i&e%ine in ear% A&ri%*
-ith the &rodu(tion o! Sada a%-Ma%ahim) &ara%%e%s "etween a% 9aeda in Cemen
and other a% 9aeda nodes "e'in to a&&ear* The most nota"%e &ara%%e% is with the Saudi a%
9aeda node) whi(h) at its &ea#) was issuin' statements and &u"%i(ations Hin(%udin' its
ma'a,ine Sawt A% JihadI* The a"i%it to &rodu(e statements and %aun(h atta(#s
simu%taneous% si'ni!ies a !air% (om&etent and (a&a"%e node* One se(ondar e%ement to
this (om&arison that warrants attention is the !a(t that whi%e a% 9aeda &rime and various
other nodes o!ten re%ease statements !i%%ed with threats) the rare% !o%%ow throu'h on
those s&e(i!i( threats and do not atta(# in the immediate a!termathK in (ontrast) a% 9aeda
in Cemen has &roven that it not on% !o%%ows throu'h on the threats within its statements)
it does so in a time% manner:
June 677B: A% 9aeda in Cemen issues a statement demandin' that the Cemeni
'overnment re%ease a num"er o! &risoners "ein' he%d on terrorism-re%ated (har'es*
Ju% 677B: /o &risoners are re%eased) and a sui(ide "om"er stri#es a 'rou& o!
S&anish tourists near an ar(haeo%o'i(a% site near Mari"* 1n a video re%eased on the
1nternet) the "om"er (%aims he (arried out the atta(#s in the name o! the Cemen
So%diers Bri'ade) a 'rou& that is dire(t% %in#ed to a% 9aeda in Cemen*
Januar 677G: The !irst issue o! Sada a%-Ma%ahim is re%eased* The &u"%i(ation
in(%udes a demand !or the re%ease o! &risoners "ein' he%d " the Cemeni
'overnment on terrorism-re%ated (har'es* /o &risoners are re%eased*
Jan* 8G: A 'rou& o! Be%'ian tourists is atta(#ed in the ;adramout re'ionK two
tourists are #i%%ed*
Mar(h 8E: The se(ond issue o! Sada a%-Ma%ahim is re%eased and in(%udes an
interview with an a%%e'ed !i'hter who (%aims he (hose to sta in Cemen in order to
atta(# oi% and ener' interests that are !ue%in' -estern o&erations in 1ra@*
Mar(h 8G: Mortars are !ired at the +*S* 0m"ass in Sanaa) a%thou'h the miss the
em"ass (om&ound and hit a %o(a% 'ir%.s s(hoo%* Short% therea!ter) there were a
series o! atta(#s on tar'ets re%ated to the ener' se(tor) !o%%owin' throu'h on the
threats made in the se(ond Sada a%-Ma%ahim statement*
The (%ose timin' "etween the re%eases o! the Sada a%-Ma%ahim issues and the
su"se@uent atta(#s indi(ate that the 'rou& has re'ained the a"i%it to %aun(h or(hestrated
atta(#s* A%thou'h the s(o&e and so&histi(ation o! these atta(#s is somewhat %imited at this
time) the 'rou& indi(ated in their se(ond issue o! Sada a%-Ma%ahim that the new
o&erationa% do(trine in(%udes a (am&ai'n o! (ontinuous %ow-%eve% atta(#s ? a "rea# !rom
the %ar'e-s(a%e atta(#s that have "e(ome sm"o%i( o! a% 9aeda &rime* -hi%e this (ou%d "e
inter&reted as an indi(ation o! the 'rou&.s (urrent o&erationa% (a&a"i%it) it (an a%so "e
seen as an evo%ution in strate'* As the 'rou&.s histor in Cemen has shown) %aun(hin' a
!ew %ar'e-s(a%e o&erations does not a(hieve the desired e!!e(t* A!ter the +SS Co%e was
atta(#ed) the -estern &resen(e in the Ara" 4eninsu%a did not disso%ve) and the atta(#
(ertain% did not drive awa -estern ener' (or&orations* Thus) the 'rou& is ado&tin' an
o&erationa% do(trine somewhat simi%ar to that seen in 1ra@: a (ontinuous !%ow o! atta(#s
desi'ned to wear down the tar'et.s reso%ve*
This evo%ution in strate' shows that not on% has a% 9aeda in Cemen "een a"%e to
%earn !rom its own !ai%ures) it has a%so re(o'ni,ed the o&erationa% e!!e(tiveness o! the
ta(ti(s em&%oed " a% 9aeda nodes e%sewhere and adDusted a((ordin'%* This
deve%o&ment ? a%on' with the a&&arent in(rease in or'ani,ation and %eadershi& @ua%it
within the 'rou& ? does not indi(ate that the 'rou& wi%% diminish or that their atta(#s wi%%
(ease in the near !uture*
Cet the in(reased or'ani,ation within the 'rou& and the resu%tant re%ease o!
statements &rior to atta(#s are a&&arent% ma#in' the 'rou&.s o&erations s%i'ht% more
&redi(ta"%e* -hi%e the (urrent o&erationa% do(trine (a%%s !or a (ontinuous !%ow o! %ow-
%eve% atta(#s) whi(h are near% im&ossi"%e to anti(i&ate) the !%ow has "een &un(tuated "
numerous hi'her-%eve% o&erations asso(iated with the re%ease o! these statements* As a
resu%t) !uture re%eases o! Sada a%-Ma%ahim and other statements " the 'rou& (an serve as
indi(ators that a si'ni!i(ant atta(# Hor atta(#sI on -estern tar'ets in either the &o%iti(a%
rea%m or the ener' se(tor is (omin' soon*
The hi'h rate o! atta(#s in re(ent wee#s wou%d a&&ear to demonstrate that the
'rou& is devoted to its new o&erationa% do(trine and wi%% (ontinue to !o%%ow it unti% the
are (on!ronted* But i! the Cemeni 'overnment.s %on'-term re(ord o! (ounterterrorism
o&erations is an indi(ation) the node wi%% remain %ar'e% unmo%ested " se(urit !or(es*
One o! the main reasons !or this is the &resen(e o! a sma%%) "ut !air% &ower!u%) Sa%a!ist
minorit within the Cemeni mi%itar and inte%%i'en(e a&&aratus* This &resen(e ma#es
o&en% (ondemnin' and a(tive% addressin' the a% 9aeda threat a di!!i(u%t tas# !or the
'overnment* 1t is %i#e% that the atta(#s wi%% (ontinue and the s(o&e o! the atta(#s wi%%
(ontinue to "roaden as a% 9aeda in Cemen (ontinues 'rowin' in or'ani,ationa% stren'th
and so&histi(ation*
Soma%ia: A% 9aeda and A% Sha"aa"
2ay 8, 2008
E()+or/s No+e$ This is the "irst in a "our/part series on the rebui!ing o" a 'ey a <ae!a
no!e in So&aia)
0ar% Ma 8) a +*S* AC-8E7 S&e(tre 'unshi& destroed a house in (entra% Soma%ia
where mem"ers o! the 1s%amist mi%itant 'rou& a% Sha"aa" HAra"i( !or =the outh>I were
ho%din' a meetin'* Two men with (%ose ties to a% 9aeda &rime were #i%%ed in the atta(#*
-ith the +*S* 'overnment re&ortin' re(ent% that the a% 9aeda node a%on' the
A!'hanP4a#istani "order is reor'ani,in') and with eviden(e sur!a(in' re(ent% that the a%
9aeda node in Cemen is reor'ani,in' as we%%) it seems that a se%e(t !ew a% 9aeda 'rou&s
have "een under'oin' a &eriod o! re"ui%din'* The same situation (ou%d "e &%ain' out in
Soma%ia with a% Sha"aa"* A%thou'h there have "een some sma%%-s(a%e su((esses in
tar'etin' e%ements o! a% Sha"aa".s (ommand and (ontro% stru(ture) the %in# "etween the
Soma%ian 'rou& and a% 9aeda &rime has "een esta"%ished) and a% Sha"aa".s e5&ansion in
the near !uture is a ver rea% threat*
Al Qae(a a0( %o.al)a
A% 9aeda has a %on' o&erationa% histor in 0ast A!ri(aK Osama "in Faden himse%!
s&ent time there) o&eratin' out o! Sudan !rom 8AA6 Hshort% a!ter he was e5&e%%ed !rom
Saudi Ara"iaI to 8AA6 Hwhen he %e!t !or A!'hanistanI* The 'rou&.s invo%vement in
Soma%ia was !irst evident to the -estern wor%d in 8AAE ? durin' O&eration 2othi(
Ser&ent ? when a% 9aeda sent o&eratives to Soma%ia to train the mi%itias o! Mohamed
Farah Aided) a &ower!u% %o(a% war%ord and the main tar'et o! +*S* o&erations* 1n 8AAG) a%
9aeda made its &resen(e !e%t in 0ast A!ri(a with the em"ass "om"in's in /airo"i)
Kena) and 3ar es Sa%aam) Tan,ania* More re(ent%) a% 9aeda has "een im&%i(ated in the
"om"in' o! a hote% in Mom"asa) Kena) and an attem&t to shoot down an 1srae%i air%iner)
"oth in 6776*
The 'rou& o! a% 9aeda o&eratives sent to aid the Soma%ian mi%itias in 8AAE) whi(h
%i#e% in(%uded Fa,u% A"du%%ah Mohamed is (redited with instru(tin' the Soma%is on how
to disa"%e mi%itar he%i(o&ters " tar'etin' them with ro(#et-&ro&e%%ed 'renades as the
!%ew %ow over the (it* This ta(ti( was what a%%owed the Soma%is to disru&t +*S*
o&erations and u%timate% (ontri"uted to the +*S* &u%%out in %ate 8AAE* This serves as the
!irst #nown e5am&%e o! a% 9aeda &rovidin' dire(t materia% su&&ort to the Soma%ian (ause*
A% 9aeda.s motivation !or su&&ortin' the mi%itias at this time (ame &art% !rom Soma%is
within a% 9aeda &rime.s ran#s wantin' to su&&ort their "rethren in Soma%ia and &art%
!rom the 'rou&.s desire to ta#e advanta'e o! an o&&ortunit to stri#e at the +nited States
at a &oint o! vu%nera"i%it*
As a &redominant% Sunni (ountr) Soma%ia has "een a sour(e o! a% 9aeda !i'hters
over the ears) with a num"er o! ethni( Soma%is trave%in' to A!'hanistan to train with a%
9aeda &rime and then returnin' to or'ani,e and (ommand %o(a% a% 9aeda nodes* A%
9aeda &rime was #nown to have sent numerous o&eratives to 0ast A!ri(a in the ear% to
mid-8AA7s to %o(ate &otentia% tar'ets* 1n more re(ent ears) there have "een numerous
re&orts o! Soma%is !i'htin' a%on'side mem"ers o! the %o(a% a% 9aeda nodes in 1ra@)
A!'hanistan and 4a#istan*
T,e Develo3.e0+ of Al %,abaab
A!ter 0thio&ian !or(es "eat "a(# the Su&reme 1s%ami( Courts Coun(i% HS1CCI in
677B) the S1CC.s armed win's disso%ved into the un'overned savannah in the south) the
Mo'adishu under'round and sa!e ,ones in (entra% Soma%ia* The eventua%% re-!ormed
under the %eadershi& o! Aden Farah Aro Hone o! the men #i%%ed in the Ma 8 +*S* air
stri#eI and Shei#h ;assan Tur#i Hwho is sus&e(ted to "e a%on' the "order "etween
Soma%ia and KenaI) assumed the name a% Sha"aa" and sou'ht to (ontinue the !i'ht
a'ainst the new Soma%ian 'overnment and its 0thio&ian "a(#ers with an insur'en(-st%e
a&&roa(h* 4ortions o! a% Sha"aa" have a%so "een #nown to (a%% themse%ves the
MuDahideen Couth Movement HMCMIK this is %ar'e% sus&e(ted to "e a twist on the name
o! the main 'rou& and not an indi(ation that the MCM is a se&arate entit*
The 'rou&.s (ore %eadershi& (om&rises senior mi%itants) some o! whom trained
dire(t% and !ou'ht with a% 9aeda &rime in A!'hanistan) whi%e its ran#-and-!i%e
mem"ershi& is %ar'e% untrained Soma%ian ouths* A% Sha"aa" is estimated to have 6)777
to B)777 mem"ers) with (e%%s havin' severa% hundred mem"ers* As a resu%t o! Soma%ia.s
tur"u%ent &ast) the 'rou&.s mem"ers have had no shorta'e o! &ra(ti(e in asmmetri(a%
war!are and sma%% unit ta(ti(s) as we%% as e5&erien(e usin' a wide arra o! wea&onr*
From an o&erationa% stand&oint the 'rou& is !air% new* As the S1CC.s mi%itant
win') it 'ained notoriet "e!ore the S1CC too# over Mo'adishu in June 6776 !or its
dese(ration o! 1ta%ian 'raves and the #i%%in' o! a British Dourna%ist* The +*S* State
3e&artment !orma%% %a"e%ed a% Sha"aa" as a !orei'n terrorist or'ani,ation in Mar(h ? a
most% "ureau(rati( a(tion) "ut nonethe%ess a demonstration o! the e5tent to whi(h the
'rou& had "een a"%e to deve%o& and &ro'ress* The 'rou& a(tua%% &u"%i(% addressed its
addition to the +*S* %ist o! !orei'n terrorist or'ani,ations) sain' it wou%d on% he%&
su&&ort a% Sha"aa".s (ause) as its Dusti!i(ation as an o!!i(ia% terrorist 'rou& wou%d "rin' it
more attention and su"se@uent% more materia% su&&ort*
;e%&in' to s&eed a% Sha"aa".s 'rowth is the !a(t that when it was S1CC.s mi%itant
win') it had an or'ani,ed (ommand and (ontro% stru(ture and man ran#-and-!i%e
mem"ers a%read in &%a(e* The 'rou& was a"%e to trans!er that stru(ture) and man o! its
mem"ers) to its new in(arnation as a% Sha"aa"* This ? (ou&%ed with the %eadershi&.s
o&erationa% e5&erien(e and %in#s to a% 9aeda &rime ? has he%&ed (reate a (a&a"%e and
!air% stron' 'rou&*
From a ta(ti(a% stand&oint a% Sha"aa" does not et e5hi"it an o! the trademar#s
(ommon% asso(iated with a% 9aeda &rime* The 'rou& em&%os a ta(ti(a% do(trine that
&%a(es a stron' em&hasis on sma%%-unit) hit-and-run-st%e assau%ts) main% tar'etin' %i'ht%
'uarded towns and vi%%a'es and su"se@uent% retreatin' to the (ountrside "e!ore
rein!or(ements arrive* -hi%e the have "e'un to em&%o more traditiona% ta(ti(s su(h as
im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es in more ur"an environments) the mi%itants have "een
o&eratin' more as a traditiona% insur'ent !or(e than as a traditiona% terrorist or'ani,ation
as (ommon% de!ined*
Soma%ia: A% Sha"aa"Ms Feadershi& Fin#s to A% 9aeda
2ay 9, 2008
E()+or/s No+e$ This is the secon! in a "our/part series on the rebui!ing o" a 'ey a
<ae!a no!e in So&aia)
The main %in# "etween Soma%ian 1s%amist mi%itant 'rou& a% Sha"aa" and a% 9aeda
is a% Sha"aa".s senior %eadershi&* Man o! a% Sha"aa".s senior %eaders "oth trained with
and (ondu(ted o&erations in the name o! a% 9aeda &rime:
Aden ;ashi Aro is #nown to have trave%ed to A!'hanistan sometime "e!ore 6778*
-hi%e he was there) a% 9aeda &rime trained him in e5&%osives and insur'ent ta(ti(s* ;e
u%timate% returned to Soma%ia around 677E) where he esta"%ished his own networ# and
%aun(hed a series o! o&erations* ;e is (redited with mu%ti&%e atta(#s a'ainst !orei'n aid
wor#ers and a%so is sus&e(ted in the murder o! a Dourna%ist !or the British Broad(astin'
Cor&* ;e has sin(e "een des(ri"ed " mu%ti&%e sour(es as a% 9aeda.s mi%itar (ommander
in Soma%ia* Aro was #i%%ed in a Ma 8 +*S* airstri#e*
Fa,u% A"du%%ah Mohammed was invo%ved with a% 9aeda &rime* ;e was
instrumenta% in trainin' war%ord Mohamed Farah Aidid.s mi%itia in 8AAE and he%&ed &%an
and or'ani,e the 8AAG "om"in's o! the +*S* 0m"assies in Kena and Tan,ania as we%% as
the hote% "om"in' in Mom"asa) Kena) and a sur!a(e-to-air atta(# on an 1srae%i Det%iner in
6776* ;e went on to "e(ome a &art o! the %eadershi& o! the Su&reme 1s%ami( Courts
Coun(i% HS1CCI and su"se@uent% a senior o&erationa% (ommander in a% Sha"aa"* +*S*
!or(es have tar'eted him on numerous o((asions*
A"u Taha a%-Sudani) a%so #nown as Tari@ A"du%%ah) was a% 9aeda.s %eader in 0ast
A!ri(a and re(eived trainin' !rom a% 9aeda &rime in e5&%osives* ;e is thou'ht to have
had (%ose ties to Osama "in Faden and other hi'h-%eve% a% 9aeda and a% Sha"aa"
(ommanders* The +nited States has a%so im&%i(ated him as the main !inan(ier !or various
a% 9aeda o&erations in 0ast A!ri(a*
;assan Tur#i and S1CC %eader Shei#h ;assan 3ahir Awes are %on'time a%%ies
and are "e%ieved to "e or(hestratin' the Soma%ian insur'en(* Tur#i a%so has %in#s to a%
Sha"aa" and a% 9aeda* ;e o&erated a trainin' (am& in southern Soma%ia and was tar'eted
in a Mar(h 677B airstri#e "ut is thou'ht to have survived* ;is (am& was #nown to have
housed a% 9aeda-%in#ed mi%itants and trained a% Sha"aa" !i'hters* 1n 677:) the +*S*
'overnment !orma%% desi'nated Tur#i as a !inan(ier o! terrorism*
2ou%ed ;assan 3ourad was &art o! an a% 9aeda (e%% o&erated " a%-Sudani and has
%in#s to a% 9aeda &rime* The +*S* 'overnment im&%i(ated him in a mid-677E &%ot to "om"
Cam& Femonier) a +*S* S&e(ia% For(es "ase in 3Di"outi that hosts the Com"ined Joint
Tas# For(e-;orn o! A!ri(a (ontin'ent* Cam& Femonier has served as a the main +*S*
o&eratin' "ase in the re'ion ? a%on' with !orward o&eratin' "ases in 0thio&ia ? !or
man o! the +*S* airstri#es on mi%itant tar'ets in Soma%ia* 3ourad is (urrent% "ein' he%d
at the +*S* detention (enter in 2uantanamo Ba*
Most mem"ers o! a% Sha"aa".s senior (ommand and (ontro% stru(ture a%so
deve%o&ed %in#s with a% 9aeda &rime throu'h their invo%vement in a now-disso%ved 'rou&
that o&erated in Soma%ia* Awes) a%- Sudani) 3ourad and Tur#i were a%% mem"ers o! a%-
1tihaad a%-1s%amia HA1A1I) a &re(ursor to the S1CC* 1t was #nown to have su&&orted a%
9aeda &rime.s o&erations in 0ast A!ri(a in the %ate 8AA7s and even into the ear% 68st
(entur) he%&in' to esta"%ish mi%itant trainin' (am&s near Ros Kam"oni) a deso%ate
marsh%and a%on' the Soma%ian "order with Kena* -hen the S1CC was !ormed) the
mem"ers o! A1A1 disso%ved their 'rou& and !o%ded into the new or'ani,ations*
A% Sha"aa".s senior %eadershi& (%ear% has e5tensive e5&erien(e and invo%vement
in a% 9aeda &rime o&erations* These %in#s have he%&ed the %eaders arran'e su&&ort !or
their 'rou& throu'h arms shi&ments !rom 0ritrea and Cemen and throu'h in(reased
num"ers o! !orei'n !i'hters sent in to su&&ort their (ause* A% 9aeda &rime has a%so voi(ed
su&&ort !or a% Sha"aa"* 1n a Mar(h 677B a% 9aeda statement) A"u Caha a%-Fi"i
en(oura'ed the use o! sui(ide and roadside "om"in's ? ta(ti(s (ommon% asso(iated
with a% 9aeda-a!!i%iated 'rou&s ? a'ainst 0thio&ian troo&s and &ro-Soma%ian
'overnment !or(es* Bin Faden and his se(ond in (ommand) Aman a%-Jawahiri) have a%so
made mention o! Soma%ia in &ast re(ordin's* This indi(ates that a% 9aeda &rime has
re(o'ni,ed a% Sha"aa" as a (a&a"%e entit and has ta#en a &roa(tive stan(e in order to
he%& &romote the 'rou&.s (ontinued 'rowth*
Al %,abaab/s %+ruc+ure
T&i(a%%) a% Sha"aa" o&erates in 'rou&s o! 877 or so !i'hters when raidin' %o(a%
vi%%a'es and towns* -ithin the ur"an areas) their or'ani,ationa% stru(ture ti'htens u&) and
there is more (ontro% over sma%%-unit a(tions* The have &roven hi'h% su((ess!u% in
ur"an (om"at ? a s#i%% &er!e(ted throu'h ears o! (on!%i(t) and one the +nited States
e5&erien(ed !irsthand durin' O&eration 2othi( Ser&ent in 8AAE) when the mi%itias
mana'ed to #i%% 8G +*S* mi%itar &ersonne%*
A% Sha"aa" is a somewhat %oose% or'ani,ed 'rou&* -hi%e there is a set (ommand
and (ontro% stru(ture) the senior (ommanders usua%% on% issue "road dire(tives and
%eave the da-to-da o&erations to the %ower-%eve% (ommanders* This st%e o! stru(ture ?
a%on' with the !a(t that man o! the mi%itants and %ow-%eve% (ommanders have "een
wor#in' to'ether sin(e servin' in the mi%itar win' o! the S1CC ? means that re&%a(in'
u&&er-%eve% %eaders su(h as Aro wi%% "e !air% eas and shou%d not 'reat% a!!e(t
o&erationa% (a&a"i%ities* 1n !a(t) some &re%iminar re&orts indi(ate that Shei#h Mu#htar
A"u Ju"ar has assumed a more senior %eadershi& ro%e a!ter Aro.s Ma 8 death*
Cet Aro.s death is %i#e% to (reate some short-term disru&tion in terms o!
or'ani,ation within the 'rou&* This has "een the +nited States. ta(ti( o! %ate: tar'etin'
#e %eadershi& in airstri#es as a means o! s%owin' down the 'rowth o! 'rou&s su(h as a%
Sha"aa" and trin' to #ee& them in a re%ative state o! disor'ani,ation* The +nited States
has em&%oed a simi%ar strate' with su((ess in 4a#istan and Cemen) uti%i,in' 4redator
drones to de%iver ta(ti(a% stri#es on #e %eadershi& tar'ets*
Jud'in' !rom the su((ess o! the Ma 8 stri#e) the +nited States %i#e% had =ees
on the tar'et)> either via 4redator drones or S&e(ia% For(es &ersonne% on the 'round* The
+nited States has a%so re(eived inte%%i'en(e on the %o(ation and movement o! hi'h-va%ue
tar'ets !rom the Soma%ian 'overnment) a%thou'h this inte%%i'en(e is o!ten de%ivered %ate
and is di!!i(u%t to a(t u&on in a time% manner* Sti%%) the num"er o! su((ess!u% stri#es
sin(e Januar 677B su''ests that (oordination is im&rovin'*
Soma%ia: 1m&%i(ations o! the A% 9aeda-A% Sha"aa" Re%ationshi&
2ay 7, 2008
E()+or/s No+e$ This is the thir! in a "our/part series on the rebui!ing o" a 'ey a <ae!a
no!e in So&aia)
-ith the re(ent in(rease in a% 9aeda a(tivit in Cemen and the !%ow o! !i'hters out
o! 1ra@ &artia%% dire(ted toward Cemen) it is %i#e% that the (ountr wi%% see an in!%u5 o!
Dihadists in the near !uture* Cemen is (urrent% a re%ative% sa!e %o(ation !or a% 9aeda
!i'hters. o&erations* But) !or a mu%titude o! reasons) the se(urit dnami( there is %i#e% to
(han'e as their atta(#s (ontinue and &ressure u&on the 'overnment to a(t in(reases*
2iven Soma%ia.s histor as a (riti(a% a% 9aeda "rid'ehead into 0ast A!ri(a and its
&ro5imit to Cemen ? a mere 877 nauti(a% mi%es !rom the Cemeni (oast ? Soma%ia
&rovides a &%ausi"%e re%ease !or an Dihadist in!%u5* 1ts %a(# o! a stron' (entra% authorit)
(ou&%ed with its &orous "orders and the &resen(e o! a% 9aeda-a!!i%iated 'rou&s) ma#es it a
%o'i(a% destination !or these a% 9aeda !i'hters i! Cemen in(reases its interna% se(urit and
"e'ins to (arr out (ounterterrorism o&erations*
Over the &ast (ou&%e o! ears a% Sha"aa" and the Soma%ian insur'ents have "een
trin' to advan(e their (ause " &ortrain' Soma%ia as a (entra% theater in the =war
a'ainst the in!ide%s*> 1n this manner) the have "een trin' to attra(t materia% su&&ort and
!orei'n !i'hters* +& to now) most a% 9aeda-%in#ed mi%itants have trave%ed to 1ra@) a more
traditiona% "att%e'round !or a% 9aeda) where (e%%s are a%read in &%a(e* But as +*S*
o&erations in 1ra@ have &ro'ressed) it has "e(ome more di!!i(u%t !or the Dihadists to
(ondu(t o&erations as su((ess!u% and e!!e(tive as in the &ast*
There!ore) some o! these !i'hters %i#e% wi%% "e'in !%owin' out o! 1ra@ in sear(h o!
another (ause and insur'en( to su&&ort* This es&e(ia%% ho%ds true i! the !i'hters are not
we%(omed "a(# " their home 'overnments or are &erse(uted when the return home and
need to re%o(ate* This same dnami( o((urred a!ter the war a'ainst the Soviets in
A!'hanistan) and man 1s%amist mi%itants who !ound themse%ves unwe%(ome at home
too# u& the stru''%e in su(h out-o!-the-wa &%a(es as Che(hna and Bosnia* There was
a%so a %ar'e se'ment o! the dis&%a(ed Dihadist &o&u%ation that had no &ro"%em returnin' to
their res&e(tive home%ands "ut rather (hose to (ontinue !i'htin' on their own a((ord and
trave%ed in sear(h o! worth (auses e%sewhere*
1n su(h (ases) a (ountr with a (haoti( environment and a (han(e to wa'e a Dihad)
%i#e Soma%ia) (ou%d a&&ear attra(tive* 1n !a(t) re(ent re&orts su''est that the !%ow o!
!orei'n !i'hters into Soma%ia has "een steadi% in(reasin' in the &ast !ew months*
-hi%e this is a %on'-term out%oo#) in the short term) as the %in# "etween a%
Sha"aa" and a% 9aeda stren'thens) there %i#e% wi%% "e a shi!t in a% Sha"aa".s o&erationa%
do(trine* 0ven with the %imited and unso&histi(ated ta(ti(a% do(trine the 'rou& em&%os at
this time) a% Sha"aa" has "een a"%e to in!%i(t heav (asua%ties amon' the 0thio&ian !or(es)
simi%ar to a% 9aeda.s o&erations a'ainst +*S* !or(es in 1ra@* -hi%e the Soma%ian mi%itants
(urrent% re% on sma%%-unit assau%ts o! vi%%a'es and (he(#&oints and the o((asiona%
"om"in' o! so!t mi%itar tar'ets) as a% 9aeda.s in!%uen(e 'rows stron'er) a% Sha"aa" is
ver %i#e% to "e'in ado&tin' a ta(ti(a% do(trine simi%ar to one asso(iated with an a%
9aeda-a!!i%iated 'rou&) mar#in' the di!!eren(e "etween an insur'en( and terrorism*
The new do(trine %i#e% wi%% in(%ude an in(reased de&enden(e on im&rovised
e5&%osive devi(es H103sI and vehi(%e-"orne 103s as we%% a more dire(ted (am&ai'n
aimed at the mi%itar and (ivi% in!rastru(ture in and around Soma%ia* 1ra@-st%e 'uerri%%a
atta(#s) in(%udin' roadside "om"s tar'etin' 0thio&ian !or(es) have a%read in(reased in
Soma%ia as a% Sha"aa" has "e'un to adDust its ta(ti(s* A%thou'h Soma%ians have
traditiona%% "een averse to the use o! sui(ide ta(ti(s ? as was &revious% the (ase in
A%'eria and with the Ta%i"an ? it is &ossi"%e that) with an in!%u5 o! !orei'n) a% 9aeda-
%in#ed !i'hters) this ta(ti( wi%% "e'in to ta#e ho%d amon' a% Sha"aa" mem"ers mu(h %i#e it
eventua%% did amon' the Ta%i"an and Dihadist 'rou&s in 4a#istan*
%o.al)a/s !lace )0 +,e '),a()s+ 1ove.e0+
As &revious% stated) a% Sha"aa" has "een &roa(tive in its attem&ts to &romote its
(ause and attra(t materia% su&&ort " trin' to &ortra Soma%ia as a (entra% theater in the
Dihadist movement* -hi%e it (ertain% has "een one o! the more a(tive ? and
o&erationa%% e!!e(tive ? nodes outside o! A!'hanistan) 4a#istan and 1ra@) a% Sha"aa"
has et to rea(h the &oint where Soma%ia wou%d warrant "ein' (onsidered a (entra%
theater* This is !or (u%tura% and 'eo'ra&hi( reasons as mu(h as anthin'* 1n man was)
1ra@ is (onsidered a (riti(a% and histori(a% &art o! the Mus%im wor%d* Soma%ia) on the other
hand) is (onsidered Mus%im territor "ut is seen as a &%a(e on the &eri&her) and not at the
heart o! the 1s%ami( wor%d* 1n the "roader (onte5t o! the Dihadist movement) a% Sha"aa" is
an u&-and-(omin' %o(a% node) and Soma%ia remains a se(ondar theater o! o&erations*
;owever) with the "e'innin' o! the !orei'n Dihadist !%i'ht !rom 1ra@ and in(reased
su&&ort !rom a% 9aeda sm&athi,ers e%sewhere) a% Sha"aa" has "een &rovided the
o&&ortunit to trans!orm Soma%ia into a (entra% theater) mu(h %i#e Bosnia and Che(hna
"e(ame (entra% theaters !or Dihadist mi%itants when o&&ortunities to !i'ht e%sewhere
eva&orated* One !a(tor that (ou%d !orward a% Sha"aa".s (ause wou%d "e an in(reased +*S*
&resen(e) whi(h wou%d in turn 'ive the Soma%ian mi%itants the o&&ortunit to dire(t%
stri#e +*S* !or(es* 1! Soma%ia &rovided an o&&ortunit !or Dihadists to stri#e dire(t% at
+*S* !or(es) Soma%ia wou%d %i#e% see an even 'reater in!%u5 o! su&&ort !rom a"road)
&ossi"% &ro&e%%in' Soma%ia ? a !ormer ="a(#water> ? into the !ore!ront o! the Dihadist
movement) a%on'side the %i#es o! A!'hanistan and 1ra@*
Soma%ia: A% Sha"aa" and the -ar A'ainst 1s%amist Mi%itan(
2ay 8, 2008
E()+or/s No+e$ This is the "ina part in a "our/part series on the rebui!ing o" a 'ey a
<ae!a no!e in So&aia)
Thus !ar) the +nited States has %imited its invo%vement in Soma%ia to ta(ti(a%
airstri#es with (ruise missi%es and AC-8E7 'unshi&s ? "oth stando!! wea&ons sstems ?
and nava% interdi(tion o&erations a%on' the Soma%ian (oast%ine* There have "een +*S*
S&e(ia% For(es and C1A &arami%itar o&erations on the 'round in Soma%ia) "ut these have
"een more inte%%i'en(e-'atherin' o&erations than dire(t-stri#e o&erations Hthe o&eratives
@uiet% %o(ate tar'ets !or other resour(es to stri#eI*
;owever) the +nited States (ertain% has re(o'ni,ed the need to "e invo%ved
dire(t% in Soma%ia* +*S* !or(es have esta"%ished a (entra% "ase o! o&erations at Cam&
Femonier ? a !ormer Fren(h Forei'n Fe'ion "ase in 3Di"outi ? where most +*S* air
o&erations ori'inate* Furthermore) the +nited States has esta"%ished numerous !orward
o&eratin' "ases within 0thio&ia to su&&ort +*S* air o&erations in the re'ion*
1t is %i#e% that the +nited States. invo%vement wi%% in(rease in Soma%ia) due to the
'rowin' &resen(e o! a% 9aeda-%in#ed mi%itants ? name% a% Sha"aa" ? and &art% due to
the in(rease in maritime &ira( o!! the (oast o! Soma%ia* For now) the +nited States seems
(ontent with &rovidin' su&&ort to 0thio&ian o&erations) and an 'rowth wou%d "e in the
!orm o! air) nava% or S&e(ia% For(es assets* ;owever) re'ard%ess o! an in(rease) Soma%ia
is %i#e% to remain on the &eri&her o! the war a'ainst 1s%amist mi%itants) with 1ra@ and
A!'hanistan remainin' at the !ore!ront !or the time "ein'* This is not to sa that the
situation in Soma%ia is not a (on(ern !or +*S* mi%itar &%annersK rather) at this &oint) there
is %itt%e more that (an "e done without a si,a"%e shi!t in +*S* !or(es. &resen(e in the
re'ion*
T,e Ou+look for al %,abaab
1! this situation &%as out as STRATFOR sees it) the %in# "etween a% Sha"aa" and
a% 9aeda mi'ht stren'then over time) and the !%ow o! wea&ons) e5&%osives and Dihadists
throu'h Cemen) 0ritrea and e%sewhere mi'ht (ontinue) "ut a% Sha"aa" is not %i#e% to
drasti(a%% in(rease in si,e or stren'th in the %on' run* +& to this &oint) the (om"ination o!
0thio&ian and &ro-'overnment !or(es and %imited +*S* a(tion has not de!eated the
insur'en() thou'h it has mana'ed to #ee& them s%i'ht% o!! "a%an(eK at the same time) the
insur'ents have not de!eated the 0thio&ians or the Soma%ian 'overnment the 0thio&ians
are "a(#in'*
1! histor is an indi(ation) a% Sha"aa" and the %o(a% a% 9aeda nodes wi%% !ade
awa over time* A% 9aeda nodes in 1ra@) Saudi Ara"ia) 1ndonesia) the Sinai and the
4hi%i&&ines have risen u& in the &ast) on% to "e dismant%ed and redu(ed to a mu(h %esser
%eve% " 'overnment (ra(#downs aided " internationa% assistan(e !rom (ountries su(h as
the +nited States*
;owever) it is im&ortant to note that Soma%ia has a di!!erent dnami(* Jihadist
movements have the &otentia% to thrive where there is (haos ? as in A!'hanistan and the
4a#istani "order areas ? "ut do not do as we%% in (ountries with a stron' (entra%
'overnment* Be(ause o! the va(uum o! state &ower in Soma%ia) a% Sha"aa" has an
o&&ortunit to thrive*
0ventua%%) in(reased +*S* and 0thio&ian o&erations ? es&e(ia%% with in(reased
inte%%i'en(e 'atherin' and sharin' ? wi%% ta#e their to%% on a% Sha"aa" and desta"i%i,e the
'rou&.s (ore (ommand and (ontro% stru(ture) wea#enin' its o&erationa% (a&a"i%ities*
;owever) a% Sha"aa" does &ose a ver rea% threat* -ithout (ontinued (ounterterrorism
e!!orts ? in (om"ination with e!!orts to sta"i%i,e Soma%ia and esta"%ish a stron' (entra%
authorit ? a% Sha"aa" (ou%d he%& re-esta"%ish a% 9aeda.s !ootho%d in 0ast A!ri(a and
(reate serious se(urit issues "oth in Soma%ia and in the ;orn o! A!ri(a*
A% 9aeda: Creative Re(ruitin' !or Sui(ide Bom"ers
2ay 8, 2008
A STRATFOR sour(e re&orted Ma 5 that the 8G-ear-o%d son o! Osama "in
Faden is on a mission to "oost re(ruitment !or the Dihadist movement*
+mar ;am,a "in Faden is one o! 8A (hi%dren re&orted% !athered " the renowned
'%o"a% terrorist* 1nstead o! as&irin' to "e(ome a -estern &o& sin'er or (a%%in' !or &ea(e
"etween Mus%ims and the -est on C// %i#e some o! his other si"%in's) +mar ;am,ah
"in Faden has a&&arent% !o%%owed in the !ootste&s o! his !ather in A!'hanistan) where he
re&orted% resides with his Saudi mother*
+mar ;am,a is wide% re(o'ni,ed in Dihadist (ir(%es* A &oem he a%%e'ed% wrote
!or his !ather in 677E is &osted on a Dihadist -e" site where the oun' man is &raised "
Dihadist sm&athi,ers as a su((essor to his !ather* /ow) it seems the oun'er "in Faden
a%%e'ed% has "een tas#ed with re(ruitin' minors !rom 8E-86 ears o%d to !orm sma%%
Dihadist (e%%s in their areas o! residen(e* A((ordin' to the sour(e) +mar ;am,a is !o(used
on re(ruitin' minors with %ow 19s or with menta% disa"i%ities or those who (ome !rom
"ro#en homes* The Dihadist 'rou& is es&e(ia%% intent on "oostin' re(ruitment in the -est
A!ri(an state o! Mauritania) where a Dihadist &resen(e has reared its head in re(ent
months and where &overt and home%essness amon' (hi%dren is hi'h*
A% 9aeda.s a&&arent !o(us on re(ruitin' minors is revea%in' o! the 'rou&.s
des&eration* 1t is we%% #nown " now that a% 9aeda is attem&tin' to (ounter serious
shorta'es in re(ruits sin(e its ran#s have "een de&%eted) &arti(u%ar% in 1ra@ where the
'rou& has "een severe% ham&ered " +*S-a%%ied armed Sunni 'rou&s*
Thou'h a% 9aeda is !a(in' some rou'h times) the 'rou&.s rea(hin' out to menta%%
disa"%ed minors is a%so a si'n o! the 'rou&.s innovation* Ca&a"%e mi%itant 'rou&s wi%%
%earn to ada&t to a (han'in' se(urit environment in order to sustain their o&erations* For
e5am&%e) in 677E it mi'ht have "een re%ative% eas !or a sui(ide "om"er in 1ra@ to storm
a se(urit (he(#&oint) "ut it is now !ar more di!!i(u%t !or an adu%t ma%e with a "u%# vest
to 'et (%ose to his intended tar'et* 1ra@i insur'ent %eaders eventua%% %earned that it was a
%ot easier and more e!!e(tive !or a woman in a %oose-!ittin' a"aa to &ass se(urit
(he(#&oints than !or a man) %eadin' to the more &reva%ent use o! !ema%e sui(ide "om"ers
in atta(#s* 1n the end) it is more e!!e(tive !or these 'rou&s to &reserve their more s#i%%ed
or =menta%% sta"%e> o&eratives !or the &ur&oses o! "om"-ma#in') &%annin') !und-raisin'
and re(ruitin' than to e5&end them on sui(ide missions ? thus the need to see# out
menta%% i%% or trou"%ed ouths and dru' addi(ts who (an "e (onvin(ed that their sa%vation
wi%% (ome on% !rom sa(ri!i(in' themse%ves in martrdom missions* Thou'h these !oot
so%diers mi'ht have %ow s#i%% %eve%s) the are #e to the 'rou&.s a"i%it to sustain a re'u%ar
tem&o o! atta(#s*
Furthermore) insur'ent %eaders have deve%o&ed a variet o! insuran(e &o%i(ies to
ensure a su((ess!u% atta(#) re'ard%ess o! the "om"er.s menta% hea%th* Su(h methods
in(%ude remote% detonatin' the sui(ide "om" !rom a 'etawa vehi(%e &ar#ed near the
atta(# site) tin' the hands o! the "om"er to the steerin' whee% o! a vehi(%e-"orne
im&rovised e5&%osive devi(e and havin' a 'unman on site to shoot the sui(ide "om"er
and automati(a%% tri''er the re%ease on the "om" shou%d the atta(#er 'et (o%d !eet*
Mi%itant 'rou&s around the wor%d have demonstrated their innovation in sui(ide
"om"in'* 1n ear% Ma) an 1ra@i !ema%e sui(ide "om"er !a#in' &re'nan( detonated
herse%! in the midd%e o! a weddin' &ro(ession in a Shiite town northeast o! Ba'hdad* 1n
Fe"ruar) two menta%% disa"%ed women unwittin'% set o!! "om"s in a (oordinated
sui(ide atta(# on two &et mar#ets in Ba'hdad) #i%%in' BE &eo&%e* 1n A!'hanistan) the
Ta%i"an has "een #nown to re(ruit oun' men who su!!er !rom menta% i%%nesses or who
are hoo#ed on dru's* 1s%amist mi%itants !i'htin' durin' the Soviet war in A!'hanistan
were #nown to em&%o the use o! =#ami#a,e (ame%s> ? (ame%s &a(#ed with e5&%osives
that (ou%d wander in the desert near mi%itar sites and "e remote% detonated*
The 1srae%is and Sri Fan#ans have (ome a(ross a !ew interestin' sui(ide %in'erie
(ases as we%%* Ba(# in 6775) a !ema%e sui(ide "om"er was (au'ht at an 1srae%i (he(#&oint
with 67 &ounds o! e5&%osives stit(hed in her underwear* The Tami% Ti'ers in Sri Fan#a)
one o! the ear% users o! sui(ide "om"in' as a ta(ti() have even devised a sui(ide
"rassiereK %ast /ovem"er) a menta%% disa"%ed Tami% Ti'er "ra "om"er unwittin'% "%ew
herse%! u& outside the o!!i(e o! a Tami% minister*
Re'ard%ess o! ideo%o') re%i'ion) %an'ua'e or &ur&ose) mi%itant 'rou&s wor%dwide
wi%% (ontinue to %earn !rom ea(h other and ado&t new ta(ti(s to maintain an u&&er hand in
their insur'en(* -hi%e sui(ide "om"in' ma "e a de(ades-o%d &henomenon) the
in'enuit surroundin' the ta(ti( is ver mu(h a%ive*
Mauritania: The +n%i#e%ihood o! a% 9aedaMs Threat
Aug) 10, 2008
A"u Musa" A"d a%--adoud) head o! a% 9aeda in the 1s%ami( Ma'hre" HA91MI)
issued a (a%% to arms Au'* 86 in res&onse to the (ou& in Mauritania on Au'* 6* A%thou'h
A91M has shown a &resen(e in Mauritania) and re(ent atta(#s there have #i%%ed &o%i(e
o!!i(ers and !orei'n tourists) A91M has thus !ar not shown an a"i%it to serious% threaten
Mauritania* A%--adoud is usin' the (ou& in Mauritania as an o&&ortunit to re(ruit
mem"ers and "ui%d A91M.s su&&ort "ase) "ut the 'rou& wi%% (ontinue !o(usin' its ener'
in A%'eria*
A%--adoud Doined man other voi(es in (ondemnin' Mauritania.s most re(ent
(ou&* ;e a((used the (ou& %eaders o! "ein' "a(#ed " -estern &owers su(h as the +nited
States and Fran(e) and he ur'ed Mauritanians to =wa#e u& and &re&are !or the warK the
(ross is mar(hin' toward ou*>
1n !a(t) the +nited States and Fran(e a%so (ondemned the (ou&* Both (ountries
withdrew a%% nonhumanitarian !inan(ia% assistan(e to the (ountr Au'* G ? a move other
0uro&ean (ountries are (ontem&%atin'* The +nited States s&e(i!i(a%% has wor#ed (%ose%
with Mauritania sin(e 677E to in(rease the (ountr.s (ounterterrorism (a&a"i%ities and
&rovided trainin' and !unds to the (ountr.s (ash-stra&&ed mi%itar* To'ether) the +nited
States and Fran(e (ut o!! s%i'ht% more than L67 mi%%ion in assistan(e to a (ountr whose
mi%itar e5&enditures in 6775 were estimated at LG7 mi%%ion*
Atta(#s in Mauritania "e'an to "e %in#ed to A91M in 3e(em"er 677B) "ut
mi%itants there have not dis&%aed the (a&a"i%it to (arr out so&histi(ated atta(#s*
Mi%itants used AK-:Bs to atta(# Fren(h tourists on 3e(* 6E) 677B) and Mauritanian "order
'uards !our das %ater) in in(idents that %ed to the (an(e%%ation o! the 677G 3a#ar Ra%%*
On Fe"* 8) mi%itants o&ened !ire on the 1srae%i 0m"ass in /oua#(hott) Mauritania.s
(a&ita%* The ensuin' 'un"att%e with 'uards (aused no (asua%tiesK "standers were
wounded) "ut no em"ass sta!! mem"ers were harmed* Fina%%) on A&ri% B) 'unmen
%in#ed to A91M e5(han'ed !ire with se(urit !or(es in /oua#(hott) %eadin' to the deaths
o! one &o%i(e o!!i(er and one mi%itant*
These atta(#s showed rudimentar ta(ti(s with %itt%e or no &reo&erationa%
&%annin'* -hi%e the si'ni!i(ant dro& in de!ense !undin' wi%% ham&er Mauritania.s a"i%it
to (ontro% the new a% 9aeda threat) it is !air% (%ear that 'rou&s asso(iated with A91M in
Mauritania sim&% (annot mount a %ar'e-s(a%e) (oordinated atta(# at this &oint*
And the deve%o&ment o! a mature mi%itant 1s%amist movement ta#es time and
resour(es* For e5am&%e) A91M (e%%s in A%'eria have "een ver a(tive* Based out o! the
hi%%s east o! A%'iers) the 'rou& has mounted a stead) su((ess!u% (am&ai'n a'ainst state
se(urit !or(es sin(e the 8AA7s) "e!ore the 'rou& H&revious% #nown as the Sa%a!ist 2rou&
!or 4rea(hin' and Com"atI Doined a% 9aeda* Mi%itants have (ondu(ted roadside "om"in's
and sui(ide atta(#s usin' vehi(%e-"orne e5&%osives* The have tar'eted the mi%itar)
&o%i(e and tourist sites with a%armin' su((ess* ;owever) Mauritania does not have
A%'eria.s histor o! Dihadist a(tivit) and there are no si'ns that A91M e5&ertise is
!%owin' to Mauritania !rom A%'erian (e%%s* A91M (e%%s in Moro((o have had simi%ar
trou"%e 'ainin' tra(tion and %ar'e% have "een (ontained*
Considerin' the e!!ort that it wou%d ta#e to start a 'enuine insur'en( there)
Mauritania is not as strate'i(a%% im&ortant to A91M as A%'eria* Com&ared to Mauritania)
A%'eria (arries a hi'her internationa% &ro!i%e and hosts more -estern tourists) and A%'iers
is a (osmo&o%itan (it with man -esterners and -estern interests* Mauritania re%ies on
!ishin' and hosts no si'ni!i(ant -estern interests* Furthermore) the two (ountries. main
(ities are se&arated " 8)B77 mi%es o! "arren desert ? a si'ni!i(ant (ha%%en'e to
trans&ortin' &eo&%e and su&&%ies*
;owever) Mauritania does o!!er a &%a(e !or A91M mem"ers to hide out and train
!or atta(#s e%sewhere in /orthern A!ri(a* Thou'h the new Mauritanian Dunta has &romised
to (ra(# down on a% 9aeda e%ements) the &ortion o! the Sahara in northeast Mauritania is
virtua%% un'overna"%e* 1t is most% (ontro%%ed " nomadi( tri"es that are not ne(essari%
%oa% to the 'overnment in /oua#(hott and &rovide (over to mi%itants in return !or (ash*
Mauritania.s mi%itar is in(a&a"%e o! (arrin' out sustained missions in the areaK and a!ter
the mi%itar !undin' (uto!!) it %i#e% wi%% have even %ess rea(h than it did "e!ore*
4hsi(a%%) there is not mu(h sto&&in' A91M !rom esta"%ishin' itse%! in the
deserts o! northeastern Mauritania ? there are re&orts that it a%read has* But as A91M
(ontinues its !o(us on A%'eria) it (annot s&read too !ar !rom the Mediterranean (oast
without ris#in' "e(omin' stret(hed too thin* 0sta"%ishin' and maintainin' su&&% %ines
over su(h inhos&ita"%e terrain is ris# and re@uires (onsidera"%e man&ower* 1! A91M
"e'ins in(reasin' its re%ian(e on the deserts o! Mauritania as a sa!e haven) it (ou%d "e a
si'n that the 'rou& is under &ressure in A%'eria) a (ountr whose se(urit a&&aratus is !ar
more ade&t than Mauritania.s*
+%timate%) a%--adoud.s (a%% to arms !or the &eo&%e o! Mauritania was a &u"%i(it
move !or A91M* The (ou& ? somethin' that ha&&ens in Mauritania a"out ever two
ears ? was an o&&ortunit !or A91M to &oint out the (ountr.s &oor re(ord o!
(onsistent 'overnan(e and ta#e advanta'e o! disi%%usioned Mus%ims ri&e !or re(ruitin' to
send to more im&ortant areas su(h as nei'h"orin' A%'eria* There is no @uestion that
A91M wou%d %i#e to have a su((ess!u% &resen(e in Mauritania* But so !ar) it has %a(#ed
the a"i%it) and it wi%% have to ma#e a %ar'e investment there !irst*
From the /ew Cor# Fandmar#s 4%ot to the Mum"ai Atta(#
5ec) 0, 2008
On the sur!a(e) %ast wee#.s atta(# on Mum"ai was remar#a"%e !or its e5e(ution
and a&&arent% un(onventiona% ta(ti(s* But when (om&ared to a &%ot un(overed 85 ears
a'o that tar'eted &rominent hote%s in Manhattan) it "e(omes a&&arent that the Mum"ai
atta(# was not so ori'ina% a!ter a%%*
1n Ju% 8AAE) +*S* (ounterterrorism a'ents arrested ei'ht individua%s %ater
(onvi(ted o! &%ottin' an e%a"orate) mu%tista'e atta(# on #e sites in Manhattan* The
mi%itants) who were %in#ed to Osama "in Faden.s then-re%ative% new 'rou&) a% 9aeda)
&%anned to storm the is%and armed with automati( ri!%es) 'renades and im&rovised
e5&%osive devi(es H103sI* 1n mu%ti&%e raids on #e tar'ets (om"ined with diversionar
atta(#s) the aimed to #i%% as man &eo&%e as &ossi"%e*
The &%anned atta(#) whi(h (ame to "e #nown as the =Fandmar#s> &%ot) (a%%ed !or
severa% ta(ti(a% teams to raid sites su(h as the -a%dor!-Astoria) St* Re'is and +*/* 4%a,a
hote%s) the Fin(o%n and ;o%%and tunne%s) and a midtown Manhattan water!ront he%i&ort
servi(in' "usiness e5e(utives and N14s trave%in' !rom %ower Manhattan to various /ew
Cor#-area air&orts* The mi%itants (arried out e5tensive survei%%an(e "oth inside and
outside the tar'et hote%s usin' human &ro"es) hand-drawn ma&s and video survei%%an(e*
3etai%ed notes were ta#en on the %aout and desi'n o! the "ui%din's) with stairwe%%s)
"a%%rooms) se(urit (ameras and &ersonne% a%% re(onnoitered*
The atta(#ers intended to in!i%trate the hote%s and dis'uise themse%ves as #it(hen
em&%oees* On the da o! the atta(#) one atta(# team &%anned to use sto%en de%iver vans
to 'et (%ose to the hote%s) at whi(h &oint heavi% armed) sma%%-(e%% (ommando teams
wou%d de&%o !rom the rear o! the van* Stationar o&eratives wou%d use hand 'renades to
(reate diversions whi%e atta(# teams wou%d ra#e hote% 'uests with automati( wea&ons*
The atta(#ers &%anned to (arr 'as mas#s and use tear 'as in hote% "a%%rooms to 'ain an
advanta'e over an se(urit the mi'ht (ome u& a'ainst* The &%anned to atta(# at ni'ht)
when the %eve% o! &rote(tion wou%d "e %ower*
The tar'eted hote%s host some o! the most &resti'ious 'uests in Manhattan* These
(ou%d have in(%uded di&%omats %i#e the +*S* am"assador to the +nited /ations) who
traditiona%% #ee&s an a&artment in the -a%dor!-Astoria) or even the +*S* se(retar o!
state) who is #nown to sta at the -a%dor! durin' +*/* sessions* The a%so host various
"usiness %eaders* 1! su((ess!u%) the atta(#ers dou"t%ess wou%d have #i%%ed man hi'h-
&ro!i%e individua%s #e to /ew Cor#.s stature as a (enter !or !inan(ia% and di&%omati(
dea%in's*
Meanwhi%e) the &%ots to detonate e5&%osives in the Fin(o%n and ;o%%and tunne%s
wou%d have "%o(#ed (riti(a% trans&ortation in!rastru(ture) sowin' (haos in the (it as #e
es(a&e routes were (%osed o!!* And N14s see#in' to es(a&e the (it via the midtown
he%i&ort wou%d have "een thwarted " the atta(# &%anned !or that %o(ation* 1n !a(t) the
he%i&ort atta(# was &%anned to "e (arried out usin' water(ra!t) whi(h a%so (ou%d have
"een used to tar'et trans&ort !erries) !urther disru&tin' trans&ortation in and out o!
Manhattan* The /ew Cor# Cit 4o%i(e 3e&artment (ou%d &%ausi"% even have @uarantined
Manhattan to &revent the atta(#ers !rom !%eein' the (it*
-ith the (it shut down and 'unmen runnin' amo#) the !inan(ia% (enter o! the
+nited States wou%d have "een thrown into (haos and (on!usion unti% the atta(#ers were
detained or #i%%ed* The atta(#s thus wou%d have undermined the se(urit and e!!e(tiveness
o! /ew Cor# as a (enter !or !inan(ia% and di&%omati( dea%in's*
At the time) +*S* (ounterterrorism o!!i(ia%s deemed that the atta(# wou%d have had
a A7 &er(ent su((ess rate* 3isaster) then) was averted when !edera% a'ents (a&tured the
&%otters &%annin' the Fandmar#s atta(# than#s to an in!ormant who had in!i%trated the
'rou&* A%on' with the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in' Dust !our months ear%ier) whi(h
#i%%ed si5 &eo&%e "ut was intended to "rin' down "oth towers) the +nited States dod'ed a
maDor "u%%et that (ou%d have "een devastatin' to /ew Cor#*
T,e Nov7 =? 1u.ba) A++ack
A %itt%e more than !i!teen ears %ater) the /ov* 66 atta(#s in Mum"ai (%ose%
!o%%owed the s(ri&t o! the /ew Cor# &%ot* Mi%itants armed with AK-:Bs) 'renades and
mi%itar-'rade e5&%osives (arried out a ver %o'isti(a%% so&histi(ated and (oordinated
atta(# on the !inan(ia% (a&ita% o! 1ndia*
C%ear%) the Mum"ai atta(# invo%ved e5tensive &reo&erationa% survei%%an(e*
Atta(#ers had ma&s o! the tar'eted hote%s) and a((ordin' to the 1ndian Marine
Commandos who raided the TaD Maha% hote%) the mi%itants moved around as i! the #new
the hote%.s %aout " heart* Advan(e mem"ers o! the atta(# teams had a%read ta#en u&
&ositions in the hote%s) sto(#&i%in' !irearms) ammunition) 'renades and !ood that were
@ui(#% a((essed and used to maintain the atta(#ers. &ositions in the hote%s* One o! the
atta(#ers re&orted% a%so had ta#en a Do" as an intern (he! in the TaD Maha% hote% #it(hen)
so his movements raised %ess sus&i(ion and he had a detai%ed #now%ed'e o! the entr
&oints and (orridors* For su(h atta(#s) &re&aredness is #e) and es(a&in' a%ive is a %on'
shot* The atta(#ers there!ore must have "een hi'h% motivated and wi%%in' to die ? a rare
(om"ination that re@uires immense amounts o! trainin' and ideo%o'i(a% ,ea%*
At %east two teams entered the (it " water(ra!t) "rea#in' u& into sma%%er 'rou&s
as the made their wa to the TaD Maha% hote%) O"eroi-Trident hote% (om&%e5 and
/ariman Ha%so #nown as Cha"adI ;ouse) a Jewish (enter in the same area o! Mum"ai*
These ta(ti(a% teams dis&ersed a(ross the (it) atta(#in' &rominent sites where !orei'n
N14s were sure to "e &resent* The in!i%trated the hote%s throu'h "a(# entran(es and
#it(hens) thus enhan(in' the e%ement o! sur&rise as the o&ened !ire on 'uests in the
dinin' areas and atriums o! the hote%s*
Beond #i%%in' &eo&%e and ho%din' hosta'es in Mum"ai.s most &resti'ious hote%s)
other atta(# teams assau%ted additiona% strate'i( sites in Mum"ai) (reatin' a sense o!
(haos and (on!usion over the who%e (it* Mum"ai.s main train station) Chhatra&ati
ShivaDi Terminus) as we%% as Cama ;os&ita%) o!!i(es o! The Times o! 1ndia news&a&er)
restaurants) a theater) and "ars !re@uented " !orei'ners a%so were atta(#ed* The atta(#ers.
e5(e%%ent (oordination ? the mu%ti&%e atta(#s too# &%a(e near% simu%taneous% ? thus
ensured ma5imum (on!usion and (haos) !rustratin' &o%i(e res&onses* This (ou%d e5&%ain
in &art wh o&erations %i#e those at /ariman ;ouse and the hote%s %asted !or more than :G
hours*
%).)lar)+)es be+4ee0 Ne4 Aork a0( 1u.ba)
The simi%arities "etween the Fandmar#s &%ot and the /ov* 66 Mum"ai atta(# are
@uite o"vious* 1n sm"o%i( terms) as the Mum"ai atta(# un!o%ded) man on%oo#ers said
that an atta(# on Mum"ai is to 1ndia what an atta(# on /ew Cor# is to Ameri(ans* 1n
more (on(rete terms) the tar'ets) methods) wea&ons and 'eo'ra&h invo%ved were simi%ar
Hi! not identi(a%I) and the un(onventiona% st%e o! the atta(#s &oints to a (ommon author*
+*S* (ounterterrorism !or(es in 8AA5 detained Fandmar#s &%ot mastermind A"de%
Basit Ha#a Ram,i Couse!I) who remains in +*S* !edera% &rison* But his ideas o"vious%
did not sta "ehind "ars* This i%%ustrates how a &%an.s initia% !ai%ure does not mean the
threat has "een e%iminated* 1ndeed) STRATFOR o"served in 6775 that the 8AAE
Fandmar#s &%ot Hamon' othersI shou%d not "e dis(ounted) as a% 9aeda or other terrorist
'rou&s are #nown to return to &ast tar'ets and &%ot s(enarios*
The simi%arities "etween the Fandmar#s &%ot and the Mum"ai atta(# e5ist at
severa% %eve%s* The !irst re%ates to the tar'et set* Both /ew Cor# and Mum"ai are the
res&e(tive !inan(ia% (enters o! their (ountries and home to their nations. maDor sto(#
e5(han'es* 1n "oth (ities) the &%anners had &i(#ed out hi'h-&ro!i%e so!t tar'ets ? sites
that have %ess se(urit &ersonne% and (ountermeasures than) sa) a mi%itar insta%%ation or
#e 'overnment "ui%din'* So!ter se(urit means 'ainin' a((ess to strate'i( assets and
&eo&%e is easier* STRATFOR has %on' stressed the im&ortan(e o! maintainin' vi'i%an(e at
so!t tar'ets %i#e hote%s that (ater to internationa% 'uests) as these are %i#e% tar'ets !or
mi%itant 1s%amists* Both &%ans a%so invo%ved in!i%tratin' hote% sta!! and "oo#in' rooms in
the hote%s to 'ain inside in!ormation and store su&&%ies*
The se(ond simi%arit invo%ves how "oth &%ans in(%uded &eri&hera% tar'ets to
(ause (on!usion and (haos and thus (reate a diversion !rom the main tar'ets* 1n Mum"ai)
trans&ortation in!rastru(ture %i#e the (it.s main rai%wa station was atta(#ed) and
mi%itants detonated e5&%osive devi(es in ta5is and ne5t to 'aso%ine &um&s* Meanwhi%e)
rovin' 'unmen atta(#ed other sites around the (it* 1n a (ountr where (oordination
amon' !irst res&onders is a%read wea#) the wa the atta(#ers !anned out a(ross the (it
(aused massive (haos and distra(ted se(urit !or(es !rom the main &ri,e: the hote%s*
Atta(#in' Cama ;os&ita% a%so sowed (haos) as the inDured !rom one s(ene o! atta(#
"e(ame the tar'ets o! another whi%e "ein' res(ued*
A third simi%arit e5ists in the 'eo'ra&h o! the two (ities* 1n "oth &%ots) the use o!
water(ra!t is a distin(tive ta(ti(a% simi%arit* -ater(ra!t 'ave mi%itants a((ess at
un(onventiona% %o(ations where se(urit wou%d "e more %a5* Both Mum"ai Ha &eninsu%aI
and Manhattan Han is%andI o!!er &%ent o! &oints where mi%itants (an mount assau%ts !rom
water(ra!t* Su(h an atta(# wou%d not have wor#ed in /ew 3e%hi or Ban'a%oreK these are
%and%o(#ed (ities where mi%itants wou%d have had to enter " road) a route mu(h more
%i#e% to en(ounter &o%i(e &atro%s* Bein' (enters o! trade and surrounded " water) "oth
Mum"ai and /ew Cor# have hi'h %eve%s o! maritime tra!!i(* This means in!i%tratin' the
area !rom the water wou%d raise minima% sus&i(ions) es&e(ia%% i! the (ra!t were re'istered
%o(a%% Has was the (ase in the Mum"ai atta(#I* Su(h out-o!-the "o5 ta(ti(s ta#e
advanta'e o! se(urit servi(es) whi(h o!ten tend to !o(us on esta"%ished threats*
A !ourth simi%arit %ies in trans&ortation* 1n addition to usin' water(ra!t) "oth &%ots
invo%ved the use o! de(e&tive vehi(%es to maneuver around the (it undete(ted* The
Fandmar# &%otters used ta5is to (ondu(t survei%%an(e and &%anned on usin' a de%iver van
to a&&roa(h the hote%s* 1n Mum"ai) the atta(#ers &%anted "om"s in ta5is) and at %east one
'rou& o! mi%itants hiDa(#ed a &o%i(e van and used it to (arr out atta(#s a(ross the (it*
+sin' !ami%iar vehi(%es %i#e ta5is) de%iver vans or &o%i(e vans to (arr out survei%%an(e or
atta(#s redu(es sus&i(ion and in(reases the e%ement o! sur&rise) a%%owin' mi%itants to sta
under (over unti% the moment o! atta(#*

A0 OffB+,eB%,elf !la0
As indi(ated) the stri#in' simi%arities "etween the Fandmar#s &%ot and the
Mum"ai atta(# su''est that Basit and other ear% a% 9aeda o&eratives who he%&ed &re&are
the Fandmar#s &%ot in /ew Cor# authored the Mum"ai &%an* Considerin' that the
mi%itants %aun(hed their ori'ina% atta(# !rom Kara(hi) 4a#istan) and the &revious
invo%vement o! 4a#istan.s 1nter-Servi(es 1nte%%i'en(e H1S1I a'en( ? whi(h has
(onne(tions with a% 9aeda %eaders in western 4a#istan ? it is ver %i#e% that a% 9aeda in
4a#istan at %east &rovided the "%ue&rints !or this atta(#* On-the-'round o&erations %i#e
trainin') survei%%an(e and the a(tua% atta(# a&&ear to have "een (arried out " the
4a#istani mi%itant 'rou& Fash#ar-e-Tai"a in (onne(tion with 1ndian 1s%amist 'rou&s*
;ere we see more eviden(e o! the e5isten(e o! an ideo%o'i(a% or strate'i( "att%e
s&a(e that e5ists in the radi(a% 1s%amist wor%d) whi(h has "een 'reat% in!%uen(ed " a%
9aeda* Fi#e a (ontin'en( &%an that mi'ht sit on the she%! !or ears or de(ades "e!ore it is
use!u%) terrorist &%ots Hes&e(ia%% 'ood onesI (an have a %on' she%! %i!e and "e a&&%ied in
various s(enarios* 1n !a(t) &%ans that sit on the she%! %on'er mi'ht a(tua%% "e more
e!!e(tive as se(urit o!!i(ia%s !o(us their attention on evo%vin' threats and !or'et o%d ones*
Just "e(ause a &%ot has "een disru&ted) the threat has not "een e%iminated* On(e
terrorists ha&&en u&on a su((ess!u% mode%) the are %i#e% to !o%%ow that mode%* This (an
"e seen in a% 9aeda.s return to the -or%d Trade Center in 6778) ei'ht ears a!ter the initia%
tru(# "om" atta(#s in 8AAE* 1t (an a%so "e seen in the !a(t that Mum"ai has "een the
tar'et o! mu%ti&%e atta(#s and threats) in(%udin' train "om"in's in 6776 that #i%%ed
a&&ro5imate% 677 &eo&%e* Thou'h the ta(ti(s mi'ht have di!!ered) the tar'et set remained
the same* Narious &arts o! the atta(# ((%e (an (han'e) "ut rare% does an atta(# o((ur
that is (om&%ete% nove%*
+%timate%) the "i''est di!!eren(e "etween the Fandmar#s &%ot and the Mum"ai
atta(# is that the Mum"ai atta(# su((eeded* The !ai%ure o! the Fandmar#s &%ot &ro"a"%
&rovided #e %essons to the &%anners o! the Mum"ai atta(#) who were a"%e to (arr out
the sta'es o! the atta(# without dete(tion and with the !u%% e%ement o! sur&rise* 2au'in'
" the su((ess o! the Mum"ai in(ident) we (an e5&e(t simi%ar strate'ies and ta(ti(s in
!uture atta(#s*
Jihadism in 677A: The Trends Continue
6an) 7, 2009
For the &ast severa% ears) we have &u"%ished an annua% !ore(ast !or a% 9aeda and
the Dihadist movement* Sin(e the Januar 6776 !ore(ast) we have !o(used heavi% on the
devo%ution o! Dihadism !rom a &henomenon !o(used &rimari% on a% 9aeda the 'rou& to
one "ased &rimari% on a% 9aeda the movement* Fast ear) we ar'ued that a% 9aeda was
stru''%in' to remain re%evant and that a% 9aeda &rime had "een mar'ina%i,ed in the
&hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d* This mar'ina%i,ation o! a% 9aeda &rime had (aused that 'rou& to
!or!eit its &osition at the van'uard o! the &hsi(a% Dihad) thou'h it remained dee&%
invo%ved in the %eadershi& o! the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e*
As a @ui(# reminder) STRATFOR views what most &eo&%e re!er to as =a% 9aeda>
as a '%o"a% Dihadist networ# rather than a mono%ithi( entit* This networ# (onsists o! three
distin(t entities* The !irst is a (ore van'uard) whi(h we !re@uent% re!er to as a% 9aeda
&rime) (om&risin' Osama "in Faden and his trusted asso(iates* The se(ond is (om&osed
o! a% 9aeda !ran(hise 'rou&s su(h as a% 9aeda in 1ra@) and the third (om&rises the
'rassroots Dihadist movement ins&ired " a% 9aeda &rime and the !ran(hise 'rou&s*
As indi(ated " the tit%e o! this !ore(ast) we "e%ieve that the trends we have
dis(ussed in &revious ears wi%% (ontinue) and that a% 9aeda &rime has "e(ome
mar'ina%i,ed on the &hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d to the e5tent that we have not even mentioned
their name in the tit%e* The re'iona% Dihadist !ran(hises and 'rassroots o&eratives &ose a
mu(h more si'ni!i(ant threat in terms o! se(urit (on(erns) thou'h it is im&ortant to note
that those (on(erns wi%% remain ta(ti(a% and not rise to the %eve% o! a strate'i( threat* 1n
our view) the sort o! strate'i( (ha%%en'e that a% 9aeda &rime &osed with the AP88 atta(#s
sim&% (annot "e re&%i(ated without a maDor (han'e in 'eo&o%iti(a% a%i'nments ? a
(han'e we do not anti(i&ate in 677A*
=88C )0 "ev)e4
Be!ore divin' into our !ore(ast !or the (omin' ear) %et.s ta#e a @ui(# %oo# "a(# at
what we said wou%d ha&&en in 677G and see what we 'ot ri'ht and what we did not*
-hat we 'ot ri'ht:
A% 9aeda (ore !o(used on the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e* Another ear has &assed without
a &hsi(a% atta(# " the a% 9aeda (ore* As we noted %ast O(to"er) a% 9aeda s&ent a
tremendous amount o! e!!ort in 677G !i'htin' the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e* The (ore
%eadershi& sti%% a&&ears to "e ver intent on (ounterin' the thou'hts &resented in a
"oo# written in 677B " Saed 1mam a%-Shari!) a%so #nown as 3r* Fad%) an
im&risoned 0'&tian radi(a% and a !ounder Hwith Aman a%-JawahiriI o! 0'&tian
1s%ami( Jihad* A%-Shari!.s "oo# is seen as su(h a threat "e(ause he &rovides
theo%o'i(a% ar'uments that (ounter man o! the (ore tea(hin's used " a% 9aeda to
Dusti! Dihadism* On 3e(* 8E) an G5-&a'e treatise " one o! a% 9aeda.s %eadin'
re%i'ious authorities) A"u-Caha a%-Fi"i) was re%eased to Dihadist -e" sites in the
%atest o! a% 9aeda.s man e!!orts to (ounter 3r* Fad%.s ar'uments*
4a#istan wi%% "e im&ortant as a &otentia% !%ash&oint* 0i'ht das a!ter we wrote
this) !ormer 4a#istani 4rime Minister Bena,ir Bhutto was assassinated* Sin(e
then) 4a#istan has "e(ome the !o(a% &oint on the &hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d*
The /ovem"er 677B addition o! the Fi"an 1s%ami( Fi'htin' 2rou& HF1F2I to the
'%o"a% Dihadist networ# wi%% not &ose a serious threat to the Fi"an re'ime* The
Fi"ans have de!t% used a (om"ination o! (arrots and sti(#s to divide and (ontro%
the F1F2*
Jihadists wi%% #i%% more &eo&%e with e5&%osives and !irearms than with (hemi(a%)
"io%o'i(a% or radio%o'i(a% wea&ons* -e saw no Dihadist atta(#s usin' -M3 in
677G*
-hat we 'ot most% ri'ht:
The A%'erian Dihadist !ran(hise) a% 9aeda in the 1s%ami( Ma'hre" HA91MI) wi%% "e
hard-&ressed in 677G) "ut not e%iminated* A91M su((eeded in %aun(hin' a %ar'e
num"er o! atta(#s in the !irst ei'ht months o! 677G) #i%%in' as man &eo&%e as it
did in a%% o! 677B* But sin(e then) the A%'erian 'overnment has "een ma#in'
&ro'ress) and the Dihadist 'rou& has on% (ondu(ted two atta(#s sin(e Au'ust
677G* The A%'erians a%so are wor#in' (%ose% with nei'h"orin' (ountries to
(om"at A91M) and the 'rou& is de!inite% !ee%in' the heat* On 3e(* 6E) 677G) the
A%'erian 'overnment re&orted% reDe(ted a tru(e o!!ered " A91M %eader Cahia
3Douadi* 3Douadi o!!ered that a% 9aeda wou%d (ease atta(#s on !orei'ners
o&eratin' in oi% !ie%ds in A%'eria and Mauritania i! the A%'erian se(urit servi(e
wou%d (ease tar'etin' a% 9aeda mem"ers in the Sahe% re'ion* The 'rou& is sti%%
a%ive) and 'overnment &ressure a&&ears to have a!!e(ted its o&erationa% a"i%it in
re(ent months) "ut it did ta#e a "it %on'er than we anti(i&ated !or the &ressure to
ma#e a di!!eren(e*
Sria wi%% use Fatah a%-1s%am as a desta"i%i,in' !or(e in Fe"anon* -e had
inte%%i'en(e %ast ear su''estin' that the Srians were 'oin' to &ress the use o!
their Dihadist &ro5ies in Fe"anon ? s&e(i!i(a%% Fatah a%-1s%am* -e saw a "it o!
this t&e o! a(tivit in %ate Ma) "ut not as mu(h as anti(i&ated* B /ovem"er)
Sria a(tua%% de(ided to (ut ties with Fatah a%-1s%am*
Jihadist o&eratives outside war ,ones wi%% !o(us on so!t tar'ets* MaDor terrorist
stri#es in 1s%ama"ad and /ew 3e%hi were (ondu(ted a'ainst hote%s) so!t tar'ets
STRATFOR has !o(used on as vu%nera"%e !or man ears now* Other atta(#s in
1ndia !o(used on mar#ets and other &u"%i( &%a(es* -hi%e most o! the atta(#s
a'ainst hard tar'ets (ame in war ,ones %i#e 1ra@ and A!'hanistan) there were a !ew
atta(#s a'ainst hard tar'ets in &%a(es %i#e 4a#istan) Cemen and Tur#e* 2ranted)
the Sanaa and 1stan"u% atta(#s were unsu((ess!u%) "ut the were atta(#s a'ainst
hard tar'ets nonethe%ess*
-hat we missed:
The Dihadist !ran(hises in Cemen resur'ed) and the a%-Sha"a" in Soma%ia !ound
su((ess* -hi%e we @ui(#% &i(#ed u& on these trends in A&ri% and Ma
res&e(tive% Hand "eat most others to the &un(h with some ver 'ood ana%sis on
these to&i(sI) we (%ear% did not &redi(t them in 3e(em"er 677B* -e #new that
the in!%u5 o! !i'hters !rom 1ra@ was 'oin' to im&a(t (ountries in the re'ion) "ut
we didn.t s&e(i!i(a%% !o(us on Cemen and Soma%ia*
T,e Aear A,ea(
-e anti(i&ate that we wi%% see the +nited States (ontinue its (am&ai'n o!
de(a&itation stri#es a'ainst a% 9aeda %eadershi&* -hi%e this (am&ai'n has not mana'ed to
'et "in Faden or a%-Jawahiri) it has &roved @uite su((ess!u% at (ausin' the a% 9aeda a&e5
%eadershi& to %ie %ow and "e(ome mar'ina%i,ed !rom the &hsi(a% Dihad* The (am&ai'n
a%so has #i%%ed a %on' %ist o! #e a% 9aeda o&erationa% (ommanders and trainers* As noted
a"ove) we "e%ieve the (ore %eadershi& is ver (on(erned a"out the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e "ein'
wa'ed a'ainst it ? the on% rea% wa the theo%o' o! Dihadism (an "e de!eated ? and
wi%% (ontinue to !o(us their e!!orts on that "att%es&a(e*
As %on' as the ideo%o' o! Dihadism survives Hit has "een around sin(e the %ate
8AG7sI) the Dihadists. war a'ainst the wor%d wi%% (ontinue* 1t wi%% (ontinue to os(i%%ate
"etween &eriods o! hi'h and %ow intensit* 1n the (omin' ear) we "e%ieve the "u%# o!
&hsi(a% atta(#s wi%% (ontinue to "e (ondu(ted " re'iona% Dihadist !ran(hise 'rou&s) and
to a %esser e5tent " 'rassroots Dihadists*
-ith the %a(# o! re'iona% !ran(hises in /orth Ameri(a) we do not see a strate'i(
threat to the +nited States* ;owever) as seen " the re(ent (onvi(tions in the Fort 3i5
&%ot tria%) or even in the %ate O(to"er (ase where a +*S* (iti,en a&&arent% (ommitted a
sui(ide "om"in' on "eha%! o! a%-Sha"a" in Soma%ia) the threat o! sim&%e atta(#s a'ainst
so!t tar'ets in the +nited States remains* -e were a'ain sur&rised that no Dihadist atta(#s
o((urred in the +nited States in 677G* 2iven the vu%nera"i%ities that e5ist in an o&en
so(iet and the ease o! atta(#) we (annot ru%e out an atta(# in 677A*
1n 0uro&e) where A91M and other Dihadist !ran(hises have a 'reater &resen(e and
in!rastru(ture) there is a 'reater threat that these !ran(hises wi%% (ommit so&histi(ated
atta(#s* 1t must "e re(o'ni,ed) thou'h) that the wi%% have a !ar harder time a(@uirin'
wea&ons and e5&%osives to (ondu(t su(h atta(#s in the +nited Kin'dom or Fran(e than
the wou%d in A%'eria or 4a#istan* Be(ause o! this) we anti(i&ate that the wi%% (ontinue
to !o(us on so!t tar'ets in 0uro&e* 3ue to di!!eren(es "etween the Mus%im (ommunities in
the +nited States and 0uro&e) the 'rassroots o&eratives have "een more a(tive in 0uro&e
than the are in the +nited States* The Ma 66) 677G) attem&ted "om"in' at the 2ira!!e
Ca!e " a Mus%im (onvert in 05eter serves as a 'ood reminder o! this*
'),a()s+ Fra0c,)ses
A!ter !ai%in' %ast ear to &redi(t the resur'en(e o! the Dihadist !ran(hises in Cemen
and Soma%ia) we wi%% "e #ee&in' a shar& ee on "oth !or 677A* Soma%ia (ontinues to "e a
"as#et (ase o! a (ountr) and the insta"i%it there is &rovidin' an o&&ortunit !or a%-
Sha"a" to !%ourish* There is (urrent% an attem&t under wa to "rin' sta"i%it to Soma%ia)
"ut we anti(i&ate that it wi%% not su((eed) due to the mi%itant !a(tiona%ism in the (ountr*
The on% thin' wor#in' a'ainst a%-Sha"a" and their Dihadist "rethren is that the Soma%ian
Dihadists a&&ear to "e as !ra(tious as the rest o! the (ountrK a%-Sha"a" is itse%! a s&%inter
o! the Su&reme 1s%ami( Courts Coun(i% HS1CCI) whi(h ru%ed Soma%ia "rie!% "e!ore the
0thio&ian invasion in 6776* There are (urrent% as man as !our di!!erent Dihadist !a(tions
!i'htin' one another !or (ontro% over various areas o! Soma%ia ? in addition to !i'htin'
!orei'n troo&s and the interim 'overnment*
1n Cemen) thin's have "een eeri% @uiet sin(e the Se&t* 8B atta(# a'ainst the +*S*
0m"ass in Sanaa and the 'overnment (am&ai'n to 'o a!ter the 'rou& "ehind that atta(#*
Si5 'unmen were #i%%ed in the atta(# itse%!) and the Cemenis have arrested numerous
others whom the (%aim were invo%ved in &%annin' the atta(#* The Cemenis a%so #i%%ed or
(a&tured severa% si'ni!i(ant Dihadists &rior to the Se&tem"er atta(#* But 'iven the %ar'e
num"er o! Cemenis invo%ved in the !i'htin' in 1ra@) the num"er o! Saudi mi%itants who
have trave%ed to Cemen due to &ressure at home) and the Sa%a!ist-Dihadist in!%uen(e within
Cemen.s se(urit and inte%%i'en(e a&&aratus) it wi%% "e &ossi"%e !or the two Dihadist
!ran(hises in Cemen to re(over i! the Cemenis 'ive them "reathin' s&a(e*
Meanwhi%e) thou'h 1ra@ is !ar (a%mer than it was a !ew ears "a(#) a resur'en(e in
Dihadist a(tivit is &ossi"%e* One o! the #es to (a%min' down the man Dihadist 'rou&s in
1ra@ was the !ormation o! the Awa#enin' Coun(i%s) whi(h are made u& o! man Sunni
!ormer Baathist Hand some DihadistI mi%itants &%a(ed on the +*S* &aro%%* -ith the (han'es
in 1ra@) res&onsi"i%it !or these Awa#enin' Coun(i%s has "een &assed to the 1ra@i
'overnment* 1! the Shiite-dominated 'overnment de(ides not to &a the (oun(i%s) man o!
the mi%itants-turned-se(urit o!!i(ers mi'ht return to their o%d was ? es&e(ia%% i! the
&a !rom Dihadist 'rou&s is ri'ht* 1nte%%i'en(e re&orts indi(ate that Ba'hdad &%ans to &a
on% a !ra(tion o! the a&&ro5imate% 877)777 men (urrent% servin' in the Awa#enin'
Coun(i%s* The 1ra@i (entra% 'overnment a&&arent% &%ans to o!!er the "u%# o! them (ivi%ian
Do"s or Do" trainin') "ut we are s#e&ti(a% that this wi%% wor#*
0%sewhere) 4a#istan is on(e a'ain the (riti(a% %o(ation !or the Dihadists* /ot on% is
4a#istan the home o! the a% 9aeda (ore %eadershi& as its &ursues its ideo%o'i(a% war) it
a%so is home to a num"er o! Dihadist 'rou&s) !rom the A!'han Ta%i"an and the Tehri#-i-
Ta%i"an 4a#istan in the northwest to Fash#ar-e-Tai"a and Jaish-e-Mohammed in the
northeast) amon' severa% others* The (omin' ear mi'ht &rove to "e &ivota% in '%o"a%
e!!orts a'ainst the Dihadists in 4a#istan* 4a#istan a%read is a (ountr in (risis) and in
some was it is hard to ima'ine it 'ettin' mu(h worse* But i! 4a#istan (ontinues to
desta"i%i,e) it (ou%d ver we%% turn into a !ai%ed (ountr Ha%"eit a !ai%ed (ountr with a
nu(%ear arsena%I* Be!ore 4a#istan "e(omes a !ai%ed state) there are a num"er o! &re(ursor
sta'es it &ro"a"% wi%% &ass throu'h* The most immediate sta'e wou%d entai% the !a%% o!
most o! the /orth--est Frontier 4rovin(e to the Dihadists) somethin' that (ou%d ha&&en
this ear*
This t&e o! anar(h in 4a#istan (ou%d 'ive the Dihadists an o&&ortunit to e5ert
(ontro% in a wa simi%ar to what the have done in &%a(es %i#e A!'hanistan and Soma%ia
Hand a%read in the 4a#istani "ad%ands a%on' the A!'han "order*I 1!) on the other hand)
4a#istan is somehow a"%e to ho%d on) re-esta"%ish (ontro% over its territor and its ro'ue
inte%%i'en(e a'en( and "e'in to (oo&erate with the +nited States and other (ountries
!i'htin' the Dihadists) su(h a deve%o&ment (ou%d dea% a terri"%e "%ow to the as&irations o!
the Dihadists on "oth the &hsi(a% and ideo%o'i(a% "att%e!ie%ds* 2iven the num"er o! &%ots
%in#ed to 4a#istan in re(ent ears) in(%udin' the /ov* 66 Mum"ai atta(# and a%most ever
si'ni!i(ant &%ot sin(e AP88) a%% ees wi%% "e wat(hin' 4a#istan (are!u%%*
A% 9aeda: The 1nsi'ni!i(an(e o! "in FadenMs Fatest Messa'e
6an) 17, 2009
1n his !irst audio messa'e sin(e Ma 677G) a% 9aeda %eader Osama "in Faden
issued an audio re(ordin' throu'h As-Saha") a% 9aeda.s media arm) on Jan* 8:* The
messa'e (om&rised statements a"out the on'oin' 1srae%i o&eration in 2a,a and warnin's
to +*S* 4resident 2eor'e -* Bush.s su((essor a"out the (ha%%en'es o! inheritin' the wars
in 1ra@ and A!'hanistan* 1n the messa'e) "in Faden !o(uses on Bush and his (oo&eration
with 1srae% in its o&eration a'ainst ;amas in the 2a,a stri&) and he ur'es Mus%ims to
su&&ort the muDahideen with =mone and men*> ;e 'oes on to %in# the wor%d.s e(onomi(
trou"%es to the +nited States. missions in 1ra@ and A!'hanistan) sain' that i! the ne5t
+*S* &resident =withdraws !rom the war) that wou%d "e a mi%itar de!eat) and i! he 'oes
on with it) he.%% drown in e(onomi( (risis*>
Bin Faden and the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi& H#nown as a% 9aeda &rimeI do not
matter mu(h anmore) "eond their sm"o%i( &ower* The (ontinua% re%ease o! statements
without atta(#s means that these ta&es are !a%%in' on dea! ears* A% 9aeda &rime has !ai%ed
to &u%% o!! an o&eration sin(e the Fondon "om"in's in 6775 ? and even that atta(#
a&&ears to have invo%ved on% a tan'entia% %in# to the 'rassroots Dihadist networ# "ehind
the &%ot* 0ven in South Asia) where a% 9aeda is a(tive) it re%ies heavi% on %o(a% and
re'iona% a%%ies !or (over* Bin Faden has "e(ome an o%d revo%utionar who re!uses to retire
thou'h his time has &assed*
-hi%e the ta&e.s (ontent a&&ears to indi(ate that it was made re(ent%) it has not
et "een (on!irmed that it is an entire% new (ommuni(ation* From what STRATFOR has
read o! the statement so !ar) "in Faden does not even mention two o! the in(idents that
have o((urred to stren'then a% 9aeda sin(e his %ast messa'e: the /ov* 66 atta(#s in
Mum"ai and mi%itants. 'ains in northwest 4a#istan* Some other stran'e omissions in(%ude
the !ai%ure to mention +*S* 4resident-e%e(t Bara(# O"ama " name H"in Faden re!ers on%
to =Bush.s su((essor)> a%thou'h he does re&orted% dire(t% @uote Ni(e 4resident-e%e(t Joe
BidenI and the a"sen(e o! the on%ine advertisin' and h&e that usua%% &re(ede su(h a
re%ease !rom "in Faden*
The !a(t that "in Faden s&ent most o! the messa'e rai%in' a'ainst the +nited
States and 1srae% !or the a(tions in 2a,a does not mean that the ta&e is re(ent* 1srae% has
(onstant% "een invo%ved in 2a,a o&erations) and this su"De(t has "een one o! "in Faden.s
main 'rievan(es on whi(h he has s&o#en !re@uent%* Com&ared to the messa'e re%eased
Jan* 6 " Aman a%-Jawahiri H"in Faden.s de&utI) whi(h (ommented s&e(i!i(a%% on
O"ama and on 0'&t.s !ai%ure to intervene in the 1srae%i stri#es a'ainst 2a,a) this
messa'e a&&ears to 'o into mu(h %ess detai%*
Re'ard%ess o! the (ontent o! "in Faden.s messa'e) the !a(t remains that the
(onne(tion "etween these ta&es and atta(#s (arried out " a% 9aeda &rime is ver wea#*
This is the seventh ta&e H(ountin' "oth audio and videoI "in Faden has made sin(e 677B
with no si'ni!i(ant atta(# to "a(# it u&* 1n re(ent ears) a% 9aeda &rime has rea%% &osed a
&hsi(a% threat on% to South Asia ? an area o! o&erations whose si,e hard% (orres&onds
to a% 9aeda &rime.s !re@uent (a%%s !or '%o"a% Dihad*
-ithout atta(#s to "a(# it u&) rhetori( a&&ears to "e "in Faden.s so%e remainin'
wea&on* And meanwhi%e) other mi%itant 1s%amist 'rou&s %i#e ;amas and ;e,"o%%ah) and
(ountries %i#e 1ran) are 'ainin' mu(h 'reater &resti'e as the (on!ront their traditiona%
enemies) %i#e 1srae%) head-on* -ithout the street (redi"i%it o! "ein' a %e'itimate
revo%utionar threat) "in Faden and a% 9aeda &rime %ose the a"i%it to attra(t re(ruits and
mone ? and "in Faden.s a&&ea% to su&&orters !or "oth in his %atest messa'e is eviden(e
o! his de(%inin' stature*
Some o! the omissions surroundin' the ta&e a%so indi(ate a% 9aeda &rime.s
stru''%e to sta a%ive* 1! a% 9aeda were hea%th) a mention o! the Mum"ai atta(#s and the
'ains mi%itants have made a'ainst the 'overnment in northwestern 4a#istan wou%d have
"een e5&e(ted* ;owever) a% 9aeda &rime.s ina"i%it to (a&ita%i,e on those 'ains shows
Dust how mu(h +*S* airstri#es have &inned the 'rou& down* The !ai%ure to advertise the
messa'e and h&e its re%ease indi(ates that a% 9aeda &rime !a(es a si'ni!i(ant ris# in
'ettin' an ori'ina% ta&e !rom the sour(e and distri"utin' it on%ine* Ti&&in' o!! the +nited
States that a ta&e wou%d soon "e re%eased (ou%d (om&romise (ommuni(ation networ#s
a%read worn thin " +*S* stri#es in northwestern 4a#istan*
Bin Faden Hand other a% 9adea &rime ta%#in' headsI wi%% (ontinue to ma#e these
ta&es and) 'iven that the a% 9aeda %eader has or(hestrated su((ess!u% atta(#s in the &ast)
some wi%% (ontinue to %isten to him* But without a maDor a(tion to "a(# u& his threats) "in
Faden.s in!%uen(e over the mi%itant 1s%amist movement wi%% !ade* ;owever) this does not
mean the mi%itant 1s%amist movement itse%! wi%% !ade* As the a(tions o! 'rou&s %i#e ;amas
and ;e,"o%%ah Hand ;e,"o%%ah.s &atron) 1ranI show) &%ent o! &eo&%e are &re&ared to
"e(ome the wor%d.s to& 1s%amist mi%itant*
A%'eria: A% 9aeda and the 4%a'ue
6an) 21, 2009
On Jan* 8G) the British ta"%oid news&a&er The Sun re&orted that some :7 a% 9aeda
in the 1s%ami( Ma'hre" HA91MI mem"ers died !rom an out"rea# o! the &%a'ue in the Ti,i
Ou,ou &rovin(e o! A%'eria* A((ordin' to The Sun) the e&idemi( !or(ed the 'rou& to turn
its "ase into a mass 'rave and !%ee* Other sour(es su(h as the -ashin'ton Times have
&i(#ed u& on the stor and are re&ortin' that +*S* 'overnment sour(es sa the in(ident
o((urred "ut have not (on!irmed the num"er o! deaths or the a'ent invo%ved in (ausin'
them*
STRATFOR is (are!u%% wat(hin' these re&orts to see i! !irst) the are true
Hremem"er that the !irst stor is @uite o!ten not the (orre(t storI) and se(ond) &re(ise%
what o((urred) in an attem&t to determine i! this was a natura% out"rea# o! &%a'ue) or i! it
was an instan(e o! the 'rou& e5&erimentin' with "io%o'i(a% war!are*
4%a'ue Hsometimes re!erred to as the B%a(# 3eathI is a natura%% o((urrin' disease
that is (aused " the "a(terium Cersinia &estis* This "a(terium is !ound in rodents and
!%eas that in!est them and e5ists in man &arts o! the wor%d) in(%udin' the western +nited
States* A((ordin' to the +*S* Centers !or 3isease Contro% and 4revention) there are some
8)777 to E)777 (ases o! &%a'ue dia'nosed in humans ever earK "etween !ive and 85 o!
those (ases o((ur in the +nited States*
C* &estis (an in!e(t humans in three was* The "a(teria (ause &neumoni( &%a'ue
when inha%ed) thou'h &neumoni( &%a'ue (an a%so o((ur when &%a'ue "a(teria !rom
another !orm o! transmission in!e(t the %un's* Bu"oni( &%a'ue resu%ts when the "a(teria
enter throu'h a "rea# in the s#in Hsu(h as a !%ea "iteI) and se&ti(emi( &%a'ue o((urs when
the "a(teria mu%ti&% in the vi(tim.s "%ood Husua%% a!ter "ein' in!e(ted " one o! the
other t&esI* 1n 'enera%) a !%ea "ite is the &rimar !orm o! in!e(tion) and i! the in!e(tion is
%e!t untreated) it (an evo%ve into a (ase o! &neumoni( or se&ti(emi( &%a'ue*
Bu"oni( and se&ti(emi( &%a'ues are not norma%% s&read !rom &erson to &erson*
4neumoni( &%a'ue (an "e (onta'ious i! a &erson inha%es res&irator dro&%ets (ontainin'
the "a(teria !rom an in!e(ted &erson) whi(h usua%% re@uires (%ose (onta(t with the
in!e(ted individua%* C* &estis is a !ra'i%e "a(terium and does not %ast %on' in sun%i'ht or
a!ter it is dried* 4%a'ue is treata"%e with anti"ioti(s) whi(h are es&e(ia%% e!!e(tive i!
administered ear%* -earin' a sim&%e sur'i(a% mas# (an &rote(t a &erson !rom &neumoni(
&%a'ue in!e(tion*
A%'eria is one o! the man areas where &%a'ue o((urs natura%%) and the (ountr
e5&erien(es &eriodi( out"rea#s o! the disease* 1n 677E) there was an out"rea# o! &%a'ue in
A%'eria.s Oran &rovin(e* 1n that out"rea#) there were 88 (on!irmed and seven sus&e(ted
(ases o! &%a'ue* A%% the (ases in that e&isode were "u"oni() indi(atin' it was %i#e% s&read
" !%eas*
4%a'ue has %on' "een o! interest as a "io%o'i(a% war!are wea&on) !rom the re&orts
o! Tatars (ata&u%tin' &%a'ue-in!e(ted "odies at 2enoese sai%ors in the Cit o! Ca!!a in the
Crimea in the 8:th (entur) to Ja&an.s e!!orts to dro& (%a &ots o! &%a'ue-in!e(ted !%eas
over Man(huria) to the Soviet wea&ons &ro'rams durin' the Co%d -ar Hand &erha&s
"eond*I -hi%e the Tatars and Ja&anese used the "u"oni( !orm o! the &%a'ue) a((ordin' to
!ormer Soviet s(ientist Ken A%i"e#) the Soviet &ro'ram !o(used on an aeroso%i,ed !orm o!
the "a(terium desi'ned to (ause &neumoni( &%a'ue*
Fi#e man "io%o'i(a% a'ents) there are 'reat (ha%%en'es asso(iated with &rodu(in'
and em&%oin' %ar'e @uantities o! a viru%ent "io%o'i(a% a'ent* Certain%) &%a'ue (an "e
o"tained !rom the environment in a &%a(e where it o((urs natura%%) su(h as A%'eria) "ut
ta#in' that "a(terium and &rodu(in' a %ar'e @uantit o! it in a viru%ent !orm and then
dis"ursin' it in an e!!i(ient manner is another matter entire%* A((ordin' to A%i"e#) the
hu'e Soviet "io%o'i(a% wea&ons &ro'ram was a"%e to over(ome these o"sta(%es) "ut it
wou%d "e di!!i(u%t !or a sma%% or'ani,ation to do so*
That said) it is &ossi"%e that A91M mem"ers were e5&erimentin' with &%a'ue as a
wea&on) and &%a'ue (ou%d "e em&%oed on a %imited s(a%e " in!e(tin' some sui(ide
o&eratives with &neumoni( &%a'ue and then sendin' them around to ho&e!u%% (ou'h or
snee,e on vi(tims) or &erha&s to re%ease some in!e(ted !%eas a'ainst a tar'et area*
;owever) either s(enario is un%i#e% to &rodu(e mass (asua%ties* C* &estis mi'ht "e
e!!e(tive% de%ivered a'ainst a sma%%er num"er o! &eo&%e* The ear% sm&toms o!
&neumoni( &%a'ue (an "e mista#en !or the !%u) and i! the vi(tims do not see# immediate
medi(a% attention the disease (an "e !ata%*
The a%ternative is that the &%a'ue out"rea# was a natura%% o((urrin' event that
was resu%t o! the A91M mem"ers %ivin' in (%ose (onta(t with ea(h other and with rodents
in an unsanitar and &erha&s en(%osed s&a(e) su(h as a (ave (om&%e5*
STRATFOR wi%% "e wat(hin' !uture re&orts on the in(ident to see i! the (ases
were "u"oni( as o&&osed to &neumoni() as we "e%ieve "u"oni( (ases are more %i#e% to
"e an indi(ation that the out"rea# was natura%* STRATFOR wi%% a%so "e %oo#in' to see i!
there are re&orts o! %a"orator e@ui&ment and %iterature at the a"andoned (am& ? an
indi(ation that "io%o'i(a% war!are e5&erimentation was o((urrin'*
A%'eria: Ta#in' the 4u%se o! A91M
6une 27, 2009
Fate in the evenin' o! June 8B) 677A) mi%itants a!!i%iated with a% 9aeda in the
1s%ami( Ma'hre" HA91MI detonated two im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es H103sI a'ainst a
(onvo near BordD Bou ArreridD) A%'eria) whi(h is %o(ated in a mountainous area east o!
A%'iers that has traditiona%% "een an 1s%amist mi%itant stron'ho%d* The (onvo (onsisted
o! A%'erian &arami%itar &o%i(e vehi(%es es(ortin' a 'rou& o! Chinese wor#ers to a site
where the were "ui%din' a new hi'hwa to (onne(t BordD Bou ArreridD with A%'iers*
A!ter disa"%in' the (onvo usin' 103s) the mi%itants then ra#ed the tra&&ed vehi(%es with
sma%%-arms !ire* -hen the am"ush was over) 8G &o%i(emen and one Chinese wor#er had
"een #i%%ed* Another si5 'endarmes and two Chinese wor#ers were wounded in the
atta(#*
1t was the dead%iest atta(# o! an t&e in A%'eria sin(e an Au'* 8A) 677G) sui(ide
vehi(%e-"orne 103 HNB103I atta(# a'ainst a %ine o! Do" a&&%i(ants outside a &o%i(e
a(adem in Fes 1ssers that #i%%ed :G and inDured another :5* A91M re'u%ar% %aun(hes
armed am"ushes and roadside 103 atta(#s in A%'eria) and am"ushes were !re@uent% used
" the Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at H2S4CI "e!ore it announ(ed in
Se&tem"er 6776 that it had "e(ome &art o! a% 9aeda.s re'iona% !ran(hise ? A91M*
1ndeed) we have seen !our other am"ush and 103 atta(#s sin(e Ma 67) 677A) "ut the
death to%%s in su(h atta(#s have usua%% "een sma%%er than the June 8B atta(#*
1n %i'ht o! this anoma%ous atta(#) we thou'ht it wou%d "e an o&&ortune time to
ta#e the &u%se o! A91M and tr to 'et a sense o! where the 'rou& stands toda and where
it mi'ht "e 'oin' over the ne5t !ew months*
H)s+or- a0( Tre0(s
The 2S4C "e'an as a s&%inter o! the Armed 1s%ami( 2rou& H21AI in 8AAG as the
(ivi% war in A%'eria was windin' down* At that time) ;assan ;atta" %ed a 'rou& o! other
disa!!e(ted 21A mem"ers who disa'reed with 21A.s tar'etin' o! unarmed (ivi%ians*
;atta" and his !o%%owers wanted to distan(e themse%ves !rom the %ar'e-s(a%e massa(res
that had ta#en &%a(e whi%e (ontinuin' their stru''%e a'ainst the A%'erian 'overnment*
The !ormed the 2S4C to 'ive themse%ves a !resh name and a new start*
;atta" eventua%% ran into dis&utes within the 2S4C as the 'rou& was
in(reasin'% drawn to the transnationa% Dihadist (am&ai'n es&oused " a% 9aeda* ;e
=resi'ned> Hthou'h he was e!!e(tive% de&osedI as the 'rou&.s %eader in 6778 and was
su((eeded " /a"i% Sahraoui) who de(%ared the 2S4C.s a%%e'ian(e to a% 9aeda* Se(urit
!or(es #i%%ed Sahraoui in 677:*
1n a messa'e issued on Se&t* 88) 6776) a% 9aeda se(ond-in-(ommand Aman a%-
Jawahiri announ(ed that the 2S4C had Doined !or(es with a% 9aeda in a union he ho&ed
wou%d "e =a thorn in the ne(# o! the Ameri(an and Fren(h Crusaders and their a%%ies) and
an arrow in the heart o! the traitors and a&ostates*> On Se&t* 8E) 2S4C a(#now%ed'ed the
mer'er on its -e" site with a messa'e !rom its emir) A"u Musa" A"d a%--adoud) who
wrote) =-e have !u%% (on!iden(e in the !aith) the do(trine) the method and the modes o!
a(tion o! [a% 9aeda.s$ mem"ers) as we%% as their %eaders and re%i'ious 'uides*>
The new%-esta"%ished a% 9aeda !ran(hise in A%'eria was not id%e !or %on'* On
O(t* 8A) 6776) it (ondu(ted two 103 atta(#s) one a'ainst a &o%i(e station in 0% ;arra(h) an
eastern su"ur" o! A%'iers) the se(ond a'ainst a !ue% stora'e site "e%on'in' to the Fren(h
(om&an Ra,e% in Fa#hdaria* On O(t* 6A) 6776) the 'rou& (ondu(ted near-simu%taneous
NB103 atta(#s a'ainst two A%'erian &o%i(e stations in Re'haia and 3er'ana* -hi%e
simu%taneous NB103 atta(#s were somethin' seen in a% 9aeda o&erations) these atta(#s
invo%ved vehi(%es &ar#ed near their tar'ets rather than sui(ide vehi(%es and) as su(h)
resem"%ed &ast 2S4C atta(#s) as did the se%e(tion o! &o%i(e stations as tar'ets* Be(ause o!
these !eatures) the atta(#s were seen as e5am&%es o! a h"rid) or transitiona%) #ind o!
atta(#*
Other transitiona% atta(#s (ontinued into ear% 677B) su(h as the twin atta(#s on
Mar(h 5) 677B) whi(h tar'eted !orei'n oi% wor#ers and A%'erian se(urit !or(es)
indi(atin' A91M was in(or&oratin' the se(urit-!or(e tar'ets o! the 2S4C with the
!orei'n-in!%uen(e tar'ets o! a% 9aeda*
The !o(us on !orei'n interests and the ener' se(tor was seen in severa% other
atta(#s and attem&ted atta(#s a'ainst !orei'n oi% wor#ers and &i&e%ines in %ate 6776 and
ear% 677B* 1n s&ite o! this !o(us) to date) A91M has not "een a"%e to %aun(h an tru%
disru&tive atta(#s a'ainst the A%'erian ener' se(tor*
On A&ri% 88) 677B) A91M &assed another thresho%d when the 'rou& em&%oed two
sui(ide NB103S in atta(#s a'ainst se&arate tar'ets in A%'iers* One devi(e was dire(ted at
the &rime minister.s o!!i(e in the (it (enter and the se(ond tar'eted a &o%i(e station near
the internationa% air&ort in the eastern &art o! the (it* At %east EE &eo&%e re&orted% were
#i%%ed in the "%asts and more than 857 wounded* These atta(#s mar#ed the !irst sui(ide
atta(#s in A%'eria (onne(ted with 2S4C or A91M and si'ni!ied a (han'e in ta(ti(s*
;owever) the 'rou&.s in(reased o&erationa% tem&o and %ess dis(riminate tar'et
se%e(tion (ame with (onse@uen(es* 1n mid-677B the A%'erian 'overnment %aun(hed a
massive o&eration a'ainst A91M that resu%ted in %ar'e %osses o! men and materie% !or the
'rou&* A91M.s shi!t in tar'etin' strate' a%so (aused disa'reements within the
insur'en(.s %eadershi&* The s(hism arose "etween mem"ers who !avored the tradition
2S4C tar'et set and o&&osed #i%%in' (ivi%ians) and those mem"ers who were more
heavi% in!%uen(ed " a% 9aeda and wanted to hit !orei'n and sm"o%i( tar'ets with %itt%e
re'ard !or (ivi%ian (asua%ties*
1n s&ite o! the 'overnment (ra(#down) and in the !a(e o! 'rowin' interna% dissent)
A91M a((e%erated its sui(ide "om"in' (am&ai'n) and there were severa% other sui(ide
atta(#s durin' the %ast three months o! 677B* These atta(#s in(%uded the Se&t* 6 "om"in'
o! a (rowd waitin' to 'reet A%'erian 4resident A"de% A,i, Boute!%i#a in Batna that #i%%ed
66 &eo&%e and inDured more than 877K a Se&t* G sui(ide NB103 atta(# a'ainst a nava%
"arra(#s in 3e%%s that #i%%ed E7K and twin sui(ide NB103 atta(#s on 3e(* 88 that tar'eted
the (onstitutiona% (ourt and the head@uarters o! the +*/* re!u'ee a'en( in A%'iers that
#i%%ed :B &eo&%e) in(%udin' 8B +*/* em&%oees*
A91M (ondu(ted si5 sui(ide "om"in' atta(#s a'ainst mi%itar and &o%i(e tar'ets
"etween Januar 677G and the Au'* 8A) 677G) NB103 atta(# a'ainst the &o%i(e a(adem
in Fes 1ssers* 3urin' this time) mi%itar and %aw en!or(ement &ressure " the A%'erian
'overnment (ontinued) as did the &u"%i( (riti(ism o! A91M !or #i%%in' inno(ents* The
(riti(ism rea(hed a (res(endo a!ter the Fes 1ssers atta(#) whi(h #i%%ed %ar'e% &oor &eo&%e
%oo#in' !or em&%oment with the &o%i(e* A91M has on% (ondu(ted one sui(ide atta(#
sin(e Au'ust 677G) and the "u%# o! its o&erations have "een in s&arse% &o&u%ated areas
instead o! (ities* 1t is un(%ear at this &oint whether these o"serva"%e shi!ts are in res&onse
to the (riti(ism o! A91M.s ta(ti(s or i! the are a resu%t o! the 'overnment.s e!!orts to
dismant%e the 'rou&*
Far'e NB103s are resour(e intensive* 1n !a(t) the e5&%osives re@uired to (onstru(t
one %ar'e NB103 (ou%d "e used to manu!a(ture man sma%%er 103s or sui(ide vests*
Sin(e the Fes 1ssers atta(#) A91M has (ondu(ted severa% 103 atta(#s "ut these have a%%
invo%ved sma%%er 103s) and the num"er o! "stander deaths has dro&&ed as the atta(#s
have a&&eared to have "een more (are!u%% aimed at 'overnment or !orei'n tar'ets* O!
(ourse) sui(ide "om"ers are a%so a resour(e that (an on% "e used on(e) and it ta#es time
and e!!ort to re(ruit new "om"ers*
-e wi%% "e wat(hin' (are!u%% to see i! the (urrent trend awa !rom the
em&%oment o! %ar'e NB103s in ur"an areas is a tem&orar %u%% (aused " 'overnment
&ressure and a %a(# o! resour(es) or i! it is an intentiona% shi!t desi'ned to assua'e &u"%i(
an'er* 1t is ver di!!i(u%t !or an insur'ent or'ani,ation to thrive in an environment where
the %o(a% &o&u%ation turns a'ainst it) and &erha&s the A91M %eadershi& has %earned a
%esson !rom the hi'h (ost the 21A &aid a!ter it "e'an #i%%in' (ivi%ians and %ost &u"%i(
su&&ort*
1n addition to the mi%itar and %aw en!or(ement &ressure) the A%'erian 'overnment
has "een ver "us in its e!!orts to a&&% ideo%o'i(a% &ressure to A91M* One wa this
&ressure has "een a&&%ied is in the !orm o! !ormer mi%itant %eaders asso(iated with the
'rou& (riti(i,in' its (han'e in tar'etin' and ta(ti(s* For e5am&%e) a!ter the Fes 1ssers
"om"in' in Au'ust 677G) 2S4C !ounder ;assan ;atta" (a%%ed on the mi%itants to %a
down their arms and surrender* There is a%so ta%# that the 'overnment ma soon e5&and
an amnest o!!er to in(%ude mem"ers o! the or'ani,ation who have "een e5(%uded !rom
the (urrent amnest o!!er "e(ause the were deemed to have too mu(h "%ood on their
hands* Fi#e &revious amnest o!!ers) this e5&ansion (ou%d serve to !urther wea#en the
or'ani,ation as mem"ers (hoose to turn themse%ves in*
"e5)o0al Fra0c,)se?
B desi'n) A91M in(or&orated the 2S4C with e%ements o! Moro((o.s 1s%ami(
Com"atant 2rou&) Fi"a.s 1s%ami( Fi'htin' 2rou&) severa% Tunisian 'rou&s) most
nota"% the Tunisian Com"atant 2rou&) and Dihadists in Ma%i) /i'er and Mauritania*
;owever) in &ra(ti(e) the vast maDorit o! the 'rou&.s in!rastru(ture (ame !rom the
2S4C) and atta(#s sin(e the !oundin' o! A91M in 6776 have re!%e(ted this* 1ndeed) in
s&ite o! the man hi'h-&ro!i%e Fi"an and Moro((an mi%itants who serve as &art o! the a%
9aeda (ore %eadershi&) Fi"a and Moro((o have "een e5treme% (a%m sin(e the
emer'en(e o! A91M) and the 'rou& has remained an A%'eria-"ased &henomenon*
1n Mauritania) atta(#s %in#ed to A91M "e'an as ear% as 3e(em"er 677B) "ut
A91M mi%itants there have not dis&%aed the (a&a"i%it to (arr out so&histi(ated atta(#s*
Most atta(#s in Mauritania invo%ve amateurish sma%%-arms assau%ts su(h as the atta(# on
Fren(h tourists on 3e(* 6E) 677B) or the Fe"* 8) 677G) shootin' at the 1srae%i em"ass in
/oua#(hott) Mauritania.s (a&ita%* As we were writin' this) we %earned o! the June 6E
shootin' o! an Ameri(an tea(her in /oua#(hott* The man was re&orted% 'unned down
outside the s(hoo% where he tau'ht) and Mauritanian o!!i(ia%s are "%amin' the atta(# on
A91M rather than (rimina%s*
The atta(#s in Mauritania have shown rudimentar ta(ti(s with &oor &%annin') and
the mi%itants asso(iated with A91M in Mauritania sim&% have not dis&%aed the a"i%it to
mount a %ar'e-s(a%e) (oordinated atta(#* The 'rou&.s a(tivities in Ma%i and /i'er are a%so
main% (onstrained to %ow-%eve% atta(#s a'ainst 'overnment or mi%itar out&osts and
!orei'n minin' sites and &ersonne% in the northern stret(hes o! those (ountries* A91M
a%so (ondu(ts trainin' and en'a'es in smu''%in' and #idna&&in's !or ransom in this
deserted re'ion*
This means that) in the end) in s&ite o! a%% the h&e asso(iated with the A91M
name) the 'rou& is essentia%% a re"randed 2S4C and not some sort o! revo%utionar new
or'ani,ation* 1t has ada&ted its tar'et set to in(%ude !orei'n interests) and it did add
sui(ide "om"in' to its re&ertoire) "ut aside !rom that there has "een ver %itt%e movement
toward A91M.s "e(omin' a tru% re'iona% threat*
That said) A91M has re(eived a %ot o! attention !rom the a% 9aeda (ore %eadershi&)
whi(h has sou'ht to su&&ort it however it (an and s&ur it on "eond A%'eria* On June 6E)
677A) a% 9aeda media win' As Saha" re%eased a E5-minute video statement !rom A"u
Caha a%-Fi"i entit%ed =A%'eria Between the Sa(ri!i(e o! Fathers and Faith!u%ness o!
Sons*> As his name im&%ies) a%-Fi"i is himse%! !rom Fi"a) and one o! the thin's he does
in the video is ur'e mi%itants in A%'eria) Mauritania) Ma%i) /i'er) Fi"a) Tunisia and
Moro((o to mo"i%i,e and Doin under the ="anner) (ommand and emirate> o! A91M* The
video a&&ears to "e an attem&t " the a% 9aeda %eadershi& to (ounter ideo%o'i(a% atta(#s
" the A%'erian 'overnment as we%% as A91M.s re'iona% sta'nation*

o.)05 Ho.e +o "oos+?
1n addition to !i'htin' a'ainst the re'ime in A%'eria) A%'erian mi%itants have a%so
"een ver (ons&i(uous on Dihadist "att%e!ie%ds su(h as Bosnia) Che(hna) A!'hanistan and
1ra@* Some studies have even (on(%uded that A%'erians were the sin'%e %ar'est 'rou& o!
!orei'n Dihadists who !ou'ht in 1ra@ durin' the hei'ht o! the insur'en(*
One o! the thin's we have "een anti(i&atin' !or severa% ears now is a "oomeran'
e!!e(t as !orei'n Dihadists %eave &%a(es su(h as 1ra@ and 4a#istan and return home* -hi%e
man !orei'n Dihadists have "een #i%%ed in su(h &%a(es) those who survive a!ter !i'htin'
so&histi(ated !oes %i#e the Ameri(an mi%itar are not on% hardened "ut a%so &ossess
insur'ent trade(ra!t s#i%%s that ma#e them !ar more %etha% when the %eave those
"att%e!ie%ds than when the entered them* 1ndeed) we have seen a mi'ration o! 103
te(hno%o' and ta(ti(s !rom 1ra@ to other theaters) su(h as A!'hanistan*
-ith deve%o&ments in 1ra@ over the %ast !ew ears that have made 1ra@
in(reasin'% inhos&ita"%e to !orei'n Dihadists) and with 4a#istan now @ui(#% "e(omin'
%ess !riend%) man o! the A%'erian mi%itants in those &%a(es ma "e see#in' to return
home* And this "rin's us "a(# to the anoma%ous vehi(u%ar am"ush on June 8B*
That o&eration) whi%e a (ommon t&e o! atta(# in A%'eria) was
un(hara(teristi(a%% dead%* 1t is &%ain% &ossi"%e that the hi'h death to%% was mere% a
!%u#e* 4erha&s the A91M mi%itants 'ot %u(# or the A%'erian 'endarmes tar'eted in the
atta(# made a !ata% mista#e* ;owever) the in(reased death to%% (ou%d a%so have "een a
resu%t o! su&erior 103 desi'n) or su&erior &%annin' " the o&erationa% %eader o! the
am"ush* Su(h a shi!t (ou%d indi(ate that an e5&erien(ed o&erationa% (ommander or
"om"ma#er has (ome to A91M !rom some&%a(e %i#e 1ra@ or 4a#istan* 1t wi%% "e ver
im&ortant to wat(h the ne5t !ew A91M atta(#s to see i! the June 8B atta(# was indeed Dust
an anoma% or i! it was the "e'innin' o! a new and dead% trend*
The 3eath o! a To& 1ndonesian Mi%itant
Sept) 20, 2009
On Saturda) Se&t* 8A) the 1ndonesian /ationa% 4o%i(e announ(ed that a 3/A test
has &ositive% identi!ied a man #i%%ed Se&t* 8B as /oordin Mohammad To&* To& was
#i%%ed in a raid on a sa!e-house in the outs#irts o! So%o) Centra% Java) that resu%ted in a
&ro%on'ed !ire!i'ht "etween 1ndonesian authorities and mi%itants* 4o%i(e said !our
mi%itants were #i%%ed in the in(ident and three more were ta#en into (ustod* HTwo o!
them were arrested "e!ore the raid*I Authorities a%so re(overed a %ar'e @uantit o!
e5&%osives durin' the raid that the "e%ieve the mi%itant 'rou& was &re&arin' to use in an
atta(# on 1ndonesian 4resident Susi%o Bam"an' Cudhoono*
1ndonesian /ationa% 4o%i(e had re&orted Se&t* 8B that the dead man.s !in'er&rints
mat(hed To&.s* But 'iven severa% ina((urate re&orts o! To&.s demise in the &ast)
(om"ined with re&orts that the "od "e%ieved to "e To&.s was head%ess ? &erha&s due to
the e5&%osion o! a sui(ide "e%t ? most o"servers were waitin' !or 3/A (on!irmation
"e!ore removin' To&.s name !rom the &inna(%e o! the or'ani,ationa% (hart o! Tan,im
9aedat a%-Jihad*
/ow that To&.s name o!!i(ia%% has "een s(rat(hed o!! the %ist) "i' @uestions
emer'e: Can Tan,im 9aedat a%-Jihad (ontinue without him< Can the 'rou& "e e!!e(tive as
a mi%itant or'ani,ation< And who wi%% ste& u& to !i%% the void %e!t " To&<
T,e I.3or+a0ce of Lea(ers,)3
A%% three o! these @uestions tou(h on the issue o! %eadershi&* -ithout %eadershi&)
mi%itant 'rou&s wither andPor disinte'rate* -ithout s#i%%ed %eadershi&) mi%itant 'rou&s
%ose their a"i%it to (ondu(t e!!e(tive atta(#s* 9uite sim&%) %eadershi&) s#i%% and
&ro!essiona%ism ma#e the di!!eren(e "etween a mi%itant 'rou& wantin' to atta(#
somethin' ? i*e*) &ossessin' intent ? and the 'rou&.s a"i%it to su((ess!u%% (arr out its
intended atta(# ? i*e*) its (a&a"i%it*
A%thou'h on the sur!a(e it mi'ht seem %i#e a sim&%e tas# to !ind a %eader !or a
mi%itant 'rou&) in &ra(ti(e) e!!e(tive mi%itant %eaders are hard to (ome "* This is "e(ause
mi%itant %eadershi& re@uires a rather "road s#i%% set* 1n addition to &ersona% attri"utes su(h
as ruth%essness) a''ressiveness and !ear%essness) mi%itant %eaders a%so must "e
(harismati() intuitive) (%ever and ins&irin'* This %ast attri"ute is es&e(ia%% im&ortant in an
or'ani,ation that see#s to re(ruit o&eratives to (ondu(t sui(ide atta(#s* Additiona%%) an
e!!e(tive mi%itant %eader must "e a"%e to re(ruit and train o&eratives) en!or(e o&erationa%
se(urit) raise !unds) &%an o&erations) and then methodi(a%% e5e(ute the &%an whi%e
avoidin' the se(urit !or(es (onstant% huntin' the mi%itants down*
The im&ortan(e o! %eadershi& to a mi%itant or'ani,ation has "een wonder!u%%
i%%ustrated " the traDe(tor o! a% 9aeda.s !ran(hise in Saudi Ara"ia* +nder the %eadershi&
o! A"de% A,i, a%-Mu@rin the Saudi a% 9aeda !ran(hise was e5treme% "us in 677E and
677:* 1t (arried out a num"er o! hi'h-&ro!i%e atta(#s inside the #in'dom and &ut everone
!rom the Saudi monar(h to mu%tinationa% oi% (om&anies in a 'enera% state o! &ani(* -ith
"om"in's) am"ushes and "eheadin's) it seemed as i! Saudi Ara"ia was on its wa to
"e(omin' the ne5t 1ra@* Fo%%owin' the June 677: death o! a%-Mu@rin) however) the
or'ani,ation "e'an to !%ounder* The su((ession o! %eaders a&&ointed to re&%a(e a%-Mu@rin
%a(#ed his o&erationa% savv) and ea(h one &roved ine!!e(tive at "est* HSaudi se(urit
!or(es @ui(#% #i%%ed severa% o! them*I Fo%%owin' the Fe"ruar 6776 atta(# a'ainst the oi%
!a(i%it at A"@ai@) the 'rou& atro&hied even !urther) su((eedin' in (arrin' out one more
atta(#) an amateurish sma%%-arms assau%t in Fe"ruar 677B a'ainst a 'rou& o! Fren(h
tourists*
The disor'ani,ed remainin' Dihadist mi%itants in Saudi Ara"ia u%timate% 'rew
!rustrated at their ina"i%it to o&erate on their own* Man o! them trave%ed to &%a(es %i#e
1ra@ or 4a#istan to train and !i'ht* 1n Januar 677A) man o! the mi%itants who remained
in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a Doined with a% 9aeda.s !ran(hise in Cemen to !orm a new 'rou&
(a%%ed a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I under the %eadershi& o! /asir a%-
-ahashi) the %eader o! a% 9aeda in Cemen who served under Osama "in Faden in
A!'hanistan "e!ore "ein' arrested in 1ran* A%--ahashi was returned to Cemen in 677E
throu'h an e5tradition dea% "etween the Cemeni and 1ranian 'overnments and
su"se@uent% es(a&ed !rom a hi'h-se(urit &rison outside Sanaa in 6776*
A% 9aeda in Cemen.s o&erationa% (a&a"i%it im&roved under a%--ahashi.s
%eadershi&) and its o&erationa% tem&o in(reased Heven thou'h those o&erations were not
terri"% e!!e(tive*I 1n the wa#e o! this momentum) it is not sur&risin' that the !rustrated
mem"ers o! the a%%-"ut-de!un(t Saudi !ran(hise a'reed to swear %oa%t to him* The !irst
rea% !ruit o! this mer'er was seen inside Saudi Ara"ia in the Au'* 6G attem&ted
assassination o! Saudi 3e&ut 1nterior Minister 4rin(e Mohammed "in /ae!* That the
&%ot had to "e &%anned and %aun(hed !rom Cemen revea%s A9A4.s wea#ness inside the
#in'dom) and the &%ot.s !ai%ure demonstrates that) overa%%) A9A4 is !ar !rom an e!!e(tive
or'ani,ation*
Fi#e the Saudi node) the !ortunes o! other a% 9aeda re'iona% !ran(hises have risen
or !a%%en "ased u&on the a"i%it o! the !ran(hise.s %eadershi&* For e5am&%e) in Au'ust
6776 a% 9aeda announ(ed with 'reat !an!are that a s&%inter o! the 0'&tian Dihadist 'rou&
2amaah a%-1s%amiah had "e(ome a% 9aeda.s !ran(hise in 0'&t* Fi#ewise) in /ovem"er
677B a% 9aeda announ(ed that the Fi"an 1s%ami( Fi'htin' 'rou& HF1F2I had Doined its
(onste%%ation o! re'iona% 'rou&s*
But neither o! these new !ran(hise 'rou&s ever rea%% 'ot o!! the 'round* -hi%e a
'reat de'ree o! the 'rou&s. %a(# o! su((ess ma have resu%ted !rom the o&&ressive natures
o! the 0'&tian and Fi"an 'overnments ? and the a''ressive e!!orts those 'overnments
undertoo# to (ontro% the new a% 9aeda !ran(hises !o%%owin' the announ(ements o! their
(reation ? we "e%ieve the 'rou&s. near tota% %a(# o! su((ess a%so stems in %ar'e &art !rom
the %a(# o! dnami( %eadershi&* Re(ent%) F1F2 %eaders have issued statements s&ea#in'
out a'ainst a% 9aeda.s o&erationa% &rin(i&%es and 'enera% methodo%o'*
3nami( %eaders are indeed hard to !ind* 0ven thou'h 1ndonesia has an estimated
&o&u%ation o! more than 6:7 mi%%ion) To& ? (onsidered the most dan'erous and most
wanted man in 1ndonesia "e!ore his death ? hai%ed !rom Ma%asia) not 1ndonesia* ;e
was an outsider %i#e the Jordanian-"orn A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi) who "rou'ht a% 9aeda in
1ra@ into the '%o"a% s&ot%i'ht*
O! (ourse) not ever %eadershi& (han'e is disastrous to a mi%itant 'rou&*
Sometimes a new %eader "reathes new %i!e and ener' into a 'rou& H%i#e a%--ahashi in
CemenI) or the 'rou& has (om&etent %ieutenants a"%e to (ontinue to o&erate e!!e(tive%
a!ter the death o! the %eader H%i#e a% 9aeda in 1ra@ a!ter the death o! a%-Jar@awiI* To&.s
re&%a(ement) and how the %eadershi& transition a!!e(ts the 'rou&) must there!ore "e
(%ose% monitored*

To33)05 To3
To& was an a((om&%ished o&erationa% (ommander* ;e was res&onsi"%e !or a
num"er o! terrorist atta(#s in 1ndonesia) in(%udin' the 6776 and 6775 Ba%i "om"in's) the
677E J- Marriott "om"in' in Ja#arta) the 677: atta(# on the Austra%ian 0m"ass in
Ja#arta) and most re(ent%) the Ju% 8B "om"in's o! the J- Marriott and the Rit,-Car%ton
in Ja#arta*
Be(ause o! these atta(#s) To& and his mi%itant (o%%ea'ues were under e5treme
&ressure !rom the 1ndonesian authorities) who were aided " the Austra%ian and Ameri(an
inte%%i'en(e servi(es* Man o! To&.s (%osest asso(iates) %i#e Ridhwan 1sam a%-3een a%-
;an"a%i and A,ahari "in ;usin) were arrested or #i%%ed) and o&erations %aun(hed "
1ndonesian authorities thwarted severa% o! the 'rou&.s &%anned atta(#s "etween 6775 and
677A*
But e5terna% &ressure was not the on% (ha%%en'e !a(in' To&* ;e was a%so !or(ed
to dea% with mountin' ideo%o'i(a% o&&osition to hi'h-&ro!i%e terror atta(#s !rom within
Jemaah 1s%amiah itse%!) a di!!eren(e o! o&inion that %ed to To&.s s&%it with Jemaah
1s%amiah and his de(ision to !orm the new 'rou& Tan,im 9aedat a%-Jihad in ear% 6776*
Cet in s&ite o! a%% this e5terna% and interna% &ressure) To& was sti%% a"%e to re(ruit
new o&eratives) se(ure !undin' and maintain ti'ht o&erationa% se(urit* To&.s &en(hant
!or se(urit even s&ar#ed rumors that he had some sort o! msti(a% &rote(tion) rumors
!anned " the man !a%se re&orts o! his (a&ture or death* The a"i%it to o&erate under su(h
trin' (ir(umstan(es is the mar# o! a seasoned %eader*
1n a !urther (ha%%en'e to Tan,im 9aedat a%-Jihad) two o! To&.s #e %ieutenants a%so
died in the Se&t* 8B o&eration* These were Maruto Jati Su%isto) thou'ht to have "een one
o! To&.s main "om"ma#ersK and Ba'us Budi 4ranoto) who had &revious% served a three-
and-one-ha%!-ear &rison senten(e !or hidin' To& and A,ahari* H4ranoto) a#a +rwah) was
thou'ht to have "een a &o%ished re(ruiter*I
3es&ite the deaths o! Maruto and 4ranoto) there are a num"er o! &otentia%
su((essors to To&* Amon' these are Reno) a#a Tedd) the re&orted de&ut o! Tan,im
9aedat a%-JihadK Sai!uddin Jae%ani) who re&orted% re(ruited the sui(ide "om"ers
res&onsi"%e !or the Ju% hote% atta(#s in Ja#artaK and Ja%eni.s "rother) Muhammad Sahrir*
O! (ourse) someone outside To&.s immediate (ir(%e (ou%d ta#e u& the !a%%en mi%itant
%eader.s mant%e* S(ores o! Jemmah 1s%amiah mi%itants have "een re%eased !rom &rison in
re(ent ears) and severa% s#i%%ed mi%itants %i#e 3u%matin and +mar 4ate#) who have !%ed
to the 4hi%i&&ines) (ou%d return* And senior Jemmah 1s%amiah mi%itants %i#e Ju%#arnaen)
who enDo res&e(t within the 'rou&) a%so remain at %ar'e*
/o matter who re&%a(es To&) the !o%%ow-on investi'ation to the o&eration that
resu%ted in the death o! To& wi%% sure% &rove (ha%%en'in' to the !uture %eadershi& o!
Tan,im 9aedat a%-Jihad* O&erations %i#e the one that resu%ted in To&.s death o!!er not
on% the o&&ortunit !or (a&turin' or #i%%in' mi%itants "ut a%so the &otentia% !or a hu'e
harvest o! inte%%i'en(e* 1ndonesian authorities Haided " their a%%iesI are sure% attem&tin'
to e5&%oit an in!ormation 'ained in the raid in an e!!ort to %o(ate other o&eratives) sa!e-
houses and wea&ons (a(hes* 1ndeed) To& himse%! was !ound due to inte%%i'en(e 'athered
!rom the arrest o! an asso(iate named Rohmat on the same da as the raid in whi(h To&
died* Be(ause o! this inte%%i'en(e wind!a%%) we (an anti(i&ate a strin' o! raids " the
1ndonesian 'overnment in the !o%%owin' das and wee#s*
And whi%e To& was a"%e to weather su(h o&erations in the &ast) now that he is
'one) it remains to "e seen i! his re&%a(ement is (a&a"%e o! withstandin' the &ressure and
#ee&in' the 'rou& to'ether and o&erationa%% e!!e(tive*
+*S*: More Reve%ations in the Ja,i Case
Sept) 27, 2009
A motion see#in' &re-tria% detention !or /aDi"u%%ah Ja,i was !i%ed in !edera%
distri(t (ourt on Se&t* 6: in Broo#%n) " the +*S* Attorne.s O!!i(e !or the 0astern
3istri(t o! /ew Cor#* Ja,i) who was arrested with two other men Hone o! whom was his
!atherI on Se&t* 8A and (har'ed in a (rimina% (om&%aint with ma#in' !a%se statements to
investi'ators) was indi(ted on Se&t* 6E on a (har'e o! (ons&ira( to use one or more
im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es H103sI*
The detention motion !i%ed on Se&t* 6: sou'ht to #ee& Ja,i in 'overnment (ustod
&endin' the out(ome o! his tria% and made two ar'uments !or Ja,i.s (ontinued detention:
one) that as a resident a%ien with stron' ties to A!'hanistan and 4a#istan) Ja,i was a !%i'ht
ris#K and two) as someone who was invo%ved in a (ons&ira( to manu!a(ture an 103) he
was a threat to the &u"%i(* Ja,i.s detention hearin' is s(hedu%ed !or Se&t* 65*
The detention motion is the most detai%ed a((ount o! Ja,i.s a(tivities the +*S*
'overnment has &rovided to date* The motion re&eats &revious% dis(%osed in!ormation
a"out Ja,i.s attendan(e at a Dihadist trainin' (am& in 4a#istan) where he re(eived
instru(tion on manu!a(turin' im&rovised e5&%osive mi5tures and devi(es !rom Au'ust
677G throu'h Januar 677A) and a"out his e!!orts to (on(ea% his notes !rom the "om"-
ma#in' (%ass " s(annin' them and sendin' them to himse%! via -e" e-mai% a((ounts*
But the statement a%so &rovides additiona% detai%s &ertainin' to Ja,i.s "om"-ma#in' notes
and out%ines some o! the a(tions Ja,i too# &rior to his tri& to /ew Cor# ? a(tions that
(aused the authorities to have a 'reat dea% o! (on(ern a"out his tri&*
The motion states that Ja,i.s notes on "om" ma#in' (ontained instru(tions !or
manu!a(turin' the im&rovised e5&%osive mi5ture tri-a(etone tri-&ero5ide HTAT4I* TAT4 is
made !rom easi% o"tained items ? a(etone) &ero5ide and a(id ? "ut it is notorious%
dan'erous to ma#e H;amas mi%itants ni(#named TAT4 =the Mother o! Satan> "e(ause o!
its vo%ati%it and &ro&ensit to either severe% "urn or #i%% "om"-ma#ersI* TAT4 and other
&ero5ide-"ased e5&%osives su(h as ;TM3 have &%aed a &rominent ro%e in severa% re(ent
Dihadist &%ots) in(%udin' Ri(hard Reid.s 3e(em"er 6778 attem&ted shoe "om"in') the Ju%
B and Ju% 68) 6775) su"wa atta(#s in Fondon) and the 6776 %i@uid "om" &%ot*
A((ordin' to the motion) Ja,i Hand his et unnamed asso(iatesI &ur(hased
=unusua%% %ar'e> @uantities o! a(etone and &ero5ide !rom "eaut su&&% stores on severa%
o((asions in Ju%) Au'ust and Se&tem"er* A sear(h o! Ja,i.s (om&uter a%so showed that
he had sear(hed the 1nternet !or in!ormation &ertainin' to a(id and &ero5ide* The motion
a%so states that Ja,i (he(#ed into a hote% in the Aurora) Co%o*) area that had a stove in it
on Au'* 6G and on Se&t* 6-B* A !orensi( e5amination o! the !an hood on the stove in the
room where Ja,i staed tested &ositive !or a(etone ? an indi(ation that Ja,i was
attem&tin' to (oo# TAT4 in the room*
;owever) the motion a%so indi(ates that Ja,i was not an e5&erien(ed "om" ma#er
and that he seems to have had &ro"%ems !indin' the &ro&er (hemi(a% mi5ture to
manu!a(ture e!!e(tive TAT4* This is not an un(ommon &ro"%em !or novi(e "om" ma#ers)
and we have seen atta(#s %i#e the Ju% 68) 6775) Fondon atta(#s !i,,%e due to "ad "at(hes
o! TAT4*

The a!!idavit a%so noted that on Se&t* 6-B) Ja,i attem&ted to (ommuni(ate with
another individua% severa% times to as# a"out the &ro&er mi5ture o! in'redients to ma#e
TAT4) with ea(h (ommuni(ation re&orted% "e(omin' in(reasin'% ur'ent in tone* This
ur'en() and his trave% to /ew Cor# ? where Ja,i resided &rior to his 677G tri& to the
Dihadist trainin' (am& ? %i#e% s&ar#ed a 'reat dea% o! (on(ern amon' the authorities
who were wat(hin' him* The (on(ern that Ja,i had manu!a(tured TAT4 in Co%orado and
trans&orted it to /ew Cor# in his renta% (ar ma e5&%ain wh authorities too# the ris#
ste& o! snat(hin' and sear(hin' the (ar ? one o! the events that ti&&ed him o!! to the
investi'ation &rior to his arrest*
1! the !a(ts set out in the motion are true) it wou%d a&&ear that the &%ot Ja,i was
invo%ved in was @uite serious) and was !air% we%% a%on' in the &%annin' sta'es* Be(ause
TAT4 has a short she%! %i!e "e!ore it "e'ins to de(om&ose) it is manu!a(tured short%
"e!ore it is to "e used* There!ore) the tar'et se%e(tion) &re-o&erationa% survei%%an(e and
o&erationa% &%annin' were a%% most %i#e% (om&%eted "e!ore Ja,i "e'an "rewin' the
e5&%osive) whi(h %i#e% e5&%ains his &ani(#ed (a%%s on Se&t* 6-B* 1t is not (%ear at this
&oint who (ondu(ted the tar'et se%e(tion) survei%%an(e and &%annin' !or the atta(#* The
'overnment has not et re%eased a %ist o! tar'ets) "ut STRATFOR sour(es have indi(ated
that the &%ot was dire(ted a'ainst the /ew Cor# su"wa sstem) a &erennia% tar'et !or
terror &%ots*
The detai%s re%eased so !ar show that this (ase seems to have man &ara%%e%s to
&ast &%ots* 1n addition to the &ara%%e%s to the Fondon Ju% B atta(#s ? as !ar as the use o!
TAT4) the &otentia% tar'etin' o! su"was usin' sui(ide "om"s and the !a(t that Ja,i.s ro%e
and his trave% to 4a#istan is somewhat reminis(ent o! Ju% B &%ot %eader Mohammed
Siddi@ue Khan ? the use o! a hote% to ma#e im&rovised e5&%osive mi5tures is simi%ar to
the a(tions o! Ahmed Ressam durin' the mi%%ennium "om" &%ot* A%so) the trave% !rom
Co%orado to /ew Cor# in order to atta(# the su"wa sstem is simi%ar to the (ase
invo%vin' 2ha,i 1"rahim A"u Me,er) who trave%ed !rom Be%%in'ham) -ash*) to /ew Cor#
where he was invo%ved in a &%ot to "om" the /ew Cor# su"wa sstem*
1t a&&ears that at %east some o! Ja,i.s a%%e'ed (ons&irators remain at %ar'e and
+*S* authorities wi%% "e see#in' to round them u& and (har'e them Hes&e(ia%% in %i'ht o!
the re&orts that authorities a%%e'ed% re(overed 8: new "%a(# "a(#&a(#s durin' a sear(h
o! an a&artment in /ew Cor# and that some o! Ja,i.s asso(iates had a%so &ur(hased
a(etone and &ero5ide*I A((ordin' to in!ormation in the detention motion) it a&&ears that
Ja,i was one o! a 'rou& o! men who trave%ed to 4a#istan to attend the Dihadist trainin'
(am&* This trave% ma "e what "rou'ht him to the attention o! the authorities*
The Ja,i (ase hi'h%i'hts severa% interestin' trends that STRATFOR has "een
!o%%owin' !or severa% ears) su(h as the Dihadists. &ersisten(e in their e!!orts to hit the
+nited States) their use o! 'rassroots Dihadists rather than &ro!essiona% terrorist o&eratives
and the a"i%it o! -estern inte%%i'en(e to &enetrate 'rassroots (e%%s &%ottin' su(h atta(#s*
-e wi%% (ontinue to (are!u%% monitor this (ase "e(ause more interestin' detai%s a"out the
&%ot) and how it was dis(overed and thwarted) are (ertain to sur!a(e in the (omin' wee#s*
The ;asan Case: Overt C%ues and Ta(ti(a% Cha%%en'es
,ov) 11, 2009
1n %ast wee#.s '%o"a% se(urit and inte%%i'en(e re&ort) we dis(ussed the re(ent (a%%
" the %eader o! a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a) /asir a%--ahashi) !or Dihadists to
(ondu(t sim&%e atta(#s a'ainst a variet o! tar'ets in the Mus%im wor%d and the -est* -e
a%so noted how it is re%ative% sim&%e to (ondu(t su(h atta(#s a'ainst so!t tar'ets usin'
im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es) 'uns or even #nives and (%u"s*
The ne5t da) a %one 'unman) +*S* Arm MaD* /ida% Ma%i# ;asan) o&ened !ire on
a 'rou& o! so%diers at Fort ;ood) Te5as* The vi(tims were in the So%dier Readiness
4ro(essin' Center) a !a(i%it on the "ase where troo&s are &re&ared !or de&%oment and
where the ta#e (are o! (ertain &ro(essin' tas#s su(h as (om&%etin' insuran(e &a&erwor#
and re(eivin' medi(a% e5aminations and va((inations*
0ven thou'h the tar'ets o! ;asan.s atta(# were so%diers) the re&resented a ver
so!t tar'et in this environment* Most so%diers on "ases inside the +nited States are
norma%% not armed and are on% &rovided wea&ons !or trainin'* The on% &ersonne% who
re'u%ar% (arr wea&ons are the mi%itar &o%i(e and the "ase (ivi%ian &o%i(e o!!i(ers* 1n
addition to "ein' unarmed) the so%diers at the (enter were (%ose% &a(#ed to'ether in the
!a(i%it as the waited to &ro(eed !rom station to station* The unarmed) dense% &a(#ed
mass o! &eo&%e a%%owed ;asan to #i%% 8E H86 so%diers and one (ivi%ian em&%oee o! the
(enterI and wound :6 others when he o&ened !ire*
;asan is a +*S*-"orn Mus%im who) a((ordin' to STRATFOR sour(es and media
a((ounts) has had &ast (onta(t with Dihadists) in(%udin' the radi(a% 1mam Anwar a%-
Aw%a#i* A%-Aw%a#i is a +*S*-"orn imam who es&ouses a Dihadist ideo%o' and who was
dis(ussed at some %en'th in the AP88 (ommission re&ort !or his %in#s to AP88 hiDa(#ers
Kha%id a%-Midhar and /awa! a%-;a,mi* A%-Aw%a#i) who is (urrent% %ivin' in Cemen and
re&orted% has (onta(ts with a% 9aeda) &osted a messa'e on his -e" site /ov* A &raisin'
;asan.s a(tions* 3es&ite ;asan.s (onne(tions to a%-Aw%a#i and other Dihadists) it is
un#nown at this &oint i! he was even aware o! a%--ahashi.s re(ent messa'e (a%%in' !or
sim&%e atta(#s) and there!ore it is im&ossi"%e to te%% i! his atta(# was in res&onse to it*
;owever) one thin' that is (ertain is that investi'ators e5aminin' ;asan.s (om&uter hard
drive) e-mai% tra!!i( and 1nternet histor wi%% "e %oo#in' into that &ossi"i%it) a%on' with
other indi(ations that ;asan was %in#ed to radi(a%s*
-e noted %ast wee# that " their ver nature) individua% a(tors and sma%% (e%%s are
ver di!!i(u%t !or the 'overnment to dete(t* The must somehow identi! themse%ves "
(onta(tin' a 'overnment in!ormant or another &erson who re&orts them to the authorities)
attend a mi%itant trainin' (am& or (ondu(t (orres&onden(e with a &erson or or'ani,ation
under 'overnment s(rutin* 1n the ;asan (ase) it now a&&ears that ;asan did se%!-identi!
" ma#in' radi(a% statements to &eo&%e he wor#ed with) who re&orted him to the
authorities* 1t a%so a&&ears that he had (orres&onden(e with &eo&%e su(h as a%-Aw%a#i)
whom the 'overnment was monitorin'* Be(ause o! this "ehavior) ;asan "rou'ht himse%!
to the attention o! the 3e&artment o! 3e!ense) the FB1 and the C1A*
The !a(t that ;asan was a"%e to (ommit this atta(# a!ter "rin'in' 'overnment
attention to himse%! (ou%d "e due to a num"er o! !a(tors* Chie! amon' them is the !a(t
that it is ta(ti(a%% im&ossi"%e !or a 'overnment to identi! ever as&irin' mi%itant a(tor
and to &re-em&t ever a(t o! vio%en(e* The de'ree o! di!!i(u%t is in(reased 'reat% i! an
a(tor does indeed a(t a%one and does not 'ive an overt (%ues throu'h his a(tions or his
(ommuni(ations o! his intent to atta(#* Be(ause o! this) the ;asan (ase &rovides an
e5(e%%ent o&&ortunit to e5amine nationa% se(urit investi'ations and their uti%it and
%imitations*
T,e Na+ure of I0+ell)5e0ce I0ves+)5a+)o0s
The FB1 wi%% t&i(a%% o&en u& an inte%%i'en(e investi'ation Husua%% re!erred to as
a nationa% se(urit investi'ationI in an (ase where there is an indi(ation or a%%e'ation
that a &erson is invo%ved in terrorist a(tivit "ut there is no eviden(e that a s&e(i!i( %aw
has "een "ro#en* Man times these investi'ations are o&ened u& due to a %ead &assed "
the C1A) /ationa% Se(urit A'en( or a !orei'n %iaison inte%%i'en(e servi(e* Other times
an FB1 investi'ation (an (ome as a s&in-o!! !rom another FB1 (ounterterrorism
investi'ation a%read under wa or "e &rom&ted " a &ie(e o! in!ormation (o%%e(ted " an
FB1 in!ormant or even " a ti& !rom a (on(erned (iti,en ? %i#e the !%i'ht instru(tors who
a%erted the FB1 to the sus&i(ious "ehavior o! some !orei'n !%i'ht students &rior to the AP88
atta(#s* 1n su(h a (ase) the FB1 (ase a'ent in (har'e o! the investi'ation wi%% o&en a
&re%iminar in@uir) whi(h 'ives the a'ent a %imited window o! time to %oo# into the
matter* 1! no indi(ation o! (rimina% a(tivit is !ound) the &re%iminar in@uir must "e
(%osed un%ess the a'ent re(eives authori,ation !rom the s&e(ia% a'ent in (har'e o! his
division and FB1 head@uarters to e5tend it*
1!) durin' the &re%iminar in@uir) the investi'atin' a'ents !ind &ro"a"%e (ause
that a (rime has "een (ommitted) the FB1 wi%% o&en a !u%%-!%ed'ed (rimina% investi'ation
into the (ase) simi%ar to what we saw in the (ase o! Fu@man Ameen A"du%%ah and his
!o%%owers in 3etroit*
One o! the %ar'e &ro"%ems in nationa% se(urit investi'ations is se&aratin' the
wheat !rom the (ha!!* Man %eads are "ased on erroneous in!ormation or a
misidenti!i(ation o! the sus&e(t ? there is a hu'e issue asso(iated with the (on!usion
(aused " the trans%iteration o! Ara"i( names and the !a(t that there are man &eo&%e
"earin' the same names* Jihadists a%so have the tenden( to use mu%ti&%e names and
identities* And there are man (ases in whi(h &eo&%e wi%% !a%se% re&ort a &erson to the
FB1 out o! ma%i(e* Be(ause o! these !a(tors) nationa% se(urit investi'ations &ro(eed
s%ow% and usua%% do not invo%ve mu(h Hi! anI (onta(t with the sus&e(t and his (%ose
asso(iates* 1! the sus&e(t is a rea% mi%itant &%annin' a terrorist atta(#) investi'ators do not
want to ti& him o!!) and i! he is inno(ent) the do not want to su%% his re&utation "
showin' u& and overt% interviewin' everone he #nows* 3ue to its (ontroversia% histor
o! domesti( inte%%i'en(e a(tivities) the FB1 has "e(ome a(ute% aware o! its res&onsi"i%it
to &rote(t &riva( ri'hts and (ivi% %i"erties 'uaranteed " the Constitution and other %aws*
And the ri'hts 'uaranteed under the Constitution do (om&%i(ate these nationa%
se(urit investi'ations* 1t is not i%%e'a% !or someone to sa that Mus%ims shou%d atta(#
+*S* troo&s due to their o&erations in 1ra@ and A!'hanistan) or that more Mus%ims shou%d
(ondu(t atta(#s %i#e the June 8 shootin' at a re(ruitin' (enter in Fitt%e Ro(#) Ar#* ?
thin's that ;asan is re&orted to have said* Radi(a% statements and (onvi(tions are not
i%%e'a% ? a%thou'h the (ertain% wou%d a&&ear to "e (ondu(t un"e(omin' a +*S* Arm
o!!i(er* H-e wi%% %eave to others the dis(ussion o! the di!!i(u%ties in dea%in' with &ro"%em
o!!i(ers who are minorities and do(tors and who owe severa% ears o! servi(e in return !or
their edu(ation*I
There are a%so man o!!i(ers and en%isted so%diers in the +*S* Arm who own
&ersona% wea&ons and who use them !or se%!-de!ense) tar'et shootin' or huntin'* There is
nothin' e5traordinar or i%%e'a% a"out a +*S* Arm maDor ownin' &ersona% wea&ons* -ith
no arti(u%a"%e vio%ation o! +*S* %aw) the FB1 wou%d have ver %itt%e to a(t u&on in a (ase
%i#e ;asan.s* 1nstead) even i! the !ound (ause to e5tend their &re%iminar in@uir) the
wou%d "e &rett mu(h %imited to monitorin' his a(tivities Hand &erha&s his
(ommuni(ations) with a (ourt orderI and waitin' !or a %aw to "e vio%ated* 1n the ;asan
(ase) it wou%d a&&ear that the FB1 did not !ind &ro"a"%e (ause that a %aw had "een
vio%ated "e!ore he o&ened !ire at Fort ;ood* A%thou'h &erha&s i! the FB1 had "een
wat(hin' his a(tivities (%ose% and with an ee toward =the how> o! terrorist atta(#s) the
mi'ht have noti(ed him (ondu(tin' &reo&erationa% survei%%an(e o! the readiness (enter
and even a dr run o! the atta(#*
O! (ourse) in addition to Dust %oo#in' !or vio%ations o! the %aw) the other main
thrust o! a nationa% se(urit investi'ation is to determine whom the sus&e(t is (onne(ted
to and whom he is ta%#in' to or &%annin' with* 1n &ast (ases) su(h investi'ations have
un(overed networ#s o! Dihadist a(tors wor#in' to'ether in the +nited States) Canada)
0uro&e and e%sewhere* ;owever) i! a%% ;asan did in his (orres&onden(e with &eo&%e su(h
as a%-Aw%a#i was e5er(ise his First Amendment ri'ht to ho%d radi(a% (onvi(tions) and i! he
did not en'a'e in an t&e o! (ons&ira( to (ondu(t an atta(#) he did not "rea# the %aw*
Another issue that (om&%i(ates nationa% se(urit (ases is that the are a%most
a%was (%assi!ied at the se(ret %eve% or a"ove* This is understanda"%e) (onsiderin' the are
o!ten o&ened "ased u&on inte%%i'en(e &rodu(ed " sensitive inte%%i'en(e &ro'rams*
;owever) this (%assi!i(ation means that on% those &eo&%e with the &ro&er (%earan(e and
an esta"%ished need to #now (an "e "rie!ed on the (ase* 1t is not at a%% unusua% !or the FB1
to visit a hi'h-ran#in' o!!i(ia% at another a'en( to "rie! the o!!i(ia% on the !a(t that the
FB1 is (ondu(tin' a (%assi!ied nationa% se(urit investi'ation invo%vin' a &erson wor#in'
!or the o!!i(ia%.s a'en(* The ru" is that the wi%% !re@uent% te%% the o!!i(ia% that he or she
is not at %i"ert to share detai%s o! the investi'ation with other individua%s in the a'en(
"e(ause the do not have a (%ear need to #now* The FB1 a'ent wi%% a%so usua%% as# the
&erson "rie!ed not to ta#e an a(tion a'ainst the tar'et o! the investi'ation) so that the
investi'ation is not (om&romised* -hi%e some &eo&%e wi%% disa'ree with the FB1.s
determination o! who rea%% needs to #now a"out the investi'ation and 'o on to "rie! a
wider audien(e) man o!!i(ia%s are (owed " the FB1 and sit on the in!ormation*
O! (ourse) the si,e o! an or'ani,ation is a%so a !a(tor in the dissemination o!
in!ormation* The 3e&artment o! 3e!ense and the +*S* Arm are %ar'e or'ani,ations) and
it is &ossi"%e that o!!i(ia%s at the 4enta'on or the Arm.s Crimina% 1nvesti'ation
Command Hsti%% #nown " its o%d a(ronm C13I head@uarters at Fort Be%voir) Na*) were
"rie!ed on the (ase and that %o(a% o!!i(ia%s at Fort ;ood were not* The Asso(iated 4ress is
now re&ortin' that the FB1 had a%erted a 3e!ense Crimina% 1nvesti'ative Servi(e a'ent
assi'ned to the Joint Terrorism Tas# For(e HJTTFI in -ashin'ton a"out ;asan.s (onta(ts
with a%-Aw%a#i) and ABC re&orts that the 3e!ense 3e&artment is denin' the FB1 noti!ied
them* 1t wou%d a&&ear that the !in'er-&ointin' and "ureau(rati( "%ame-shi!tin' norma%%
asso(iated with su(h (ases has "e'un*

0ven more severe &ro"%ems wou%d have &%a'ued the dissemination o! in!ormation
!rom the C1A to %o(a% (ommanders and C13 o!!i(ers at Fort ;ood* 3es&ite the
inte%%i'en(e re!orms &ut in &%a(e a!ter the AP88 atta(#s) the +*S* 'overnment sti%% !a(es
%ar'e o"sta(%es when it (omes to sharin' inte%%i'en(e in!ormation with %aw en!or(ement
&ersonne%*

r).)0al Ac+s vs7 Terror)s.
So !ar) the ;asan shootin' investi'ation is "ein' run " the Arm C13) and the
FB1 has "een noti(ea"% ? and un(hara(teristi(a%% ? a"sent !rom the s(ene* As the
&remier %aw en!or(ement a'en( in the +nited States) the FB1 wi%% o!ten assume authorit
over investi'ations where there is even a hint o! terrorism* Sin(e AP88) the num"er o!
FB1PJTTF o!!i(es a(ross the (ountr has "een dramati(a%% in(reased) and the JTTFs are
s&e(i!i(a%% (har'ed with investi'atin' (ases that ma invo%ve terrorism* There!ore) we
!ind the FB1.s a"sen(e in this (ase to "e @uite out o! the ordinar*
;owever) with ;asan "ein' a mem"er o! the armed !or(es) the vi(tims "ein'
so%diers or arm (ivi%ian em&%oees and the in(ident o((urrin' at Fort ;ood) the (ase
wou%d seem to !a%% s@uare% under the mant%e o! the +ni!orm Code o! Mi%itar Justi(e
H+CMJI* From a &rose(utoria% &ers&e(tive) a homi(ide tria% under the +CMJ shou%d "e
ver tid and (ou%d "e @ui(#% (on(%uded* 1t wi%% not invo%ve a%% the &otentia% %oose ends
that (ou%d &o& u& in a !edera% terrorism tria%) es&e(ia%% when those %oose ends invo%ve
what the FB1 and C1A #new a"out ;asan) when the %earned it and who the to%d* A%so)
&o%iti(a%%) there are some who wou%d %i#e to see the ;asan (ase remain a (rimina% matter
rather than a (ase o! terrorism* Fo%%owin' the shootin' death o! Fu@man Ameen A"du%%ah
and (onsiderin' the de%i(ate re%ationshi& "etween Mus%im advo(a( 'rou&s and the +*S*
'overnment) some &eo&%e wou%d rather see ;asan &ortraed as a menta%% distur"ed
(rimina% than as an ideo%o'i(a%% driven %one wo%!*
3es&ite the C13 ta#in' the %ead in &rose(utin' the (ase) the (%assi!ied nationa%
se(urit investi'ation " the C1A and FB1 into ;asan and his &ossi"%e (onne(tions to
Dihadist e%ements is undou"ted% (ontinuin'* Senior mem"ers o! the 'overnment wi%%
(ertain% demand to #now i! ;asan had an (on!ederates) i! he was &art o! a "i''er &%ot
and i! there are more atta(#s to (ome* Severa% (on'ressmen and senators are a%so (a%%in'
!or hearin's into the (ase) and i! su(h hearin's o((ur) the wi%% (ertain% &rodu(e an
a"undan(e o! interestin' in!ormation &ertainin' to ;asan and the nationa% se(urit
investi'ation o! his a(tivities*
The Jihadist Strate'i( 3i%emma
5ec) 7, 2009
-ith +*S* 4resident Bara(# O"ama.s announ(ement o! his strate' in
A!'hanistan) the +*S*-Dihadist war has entered a new &hase* -ith its a%%ies) the +nited
States has de(ided to in(rease its !o(us on the A!'han war whi%e (ontinuin' to withdraw
!rom 1ra@* A%on' with !o(usin' on A!'hanistan) it !o%%ows that there wi%% "e in(reased
-estern attention on 4a#istan* Meanwhi%e) the @uestion o! what to do with 1ran remains
o&en) and is in turn %in#ed to +*S*-1srae%i re%ations* The re'ion !rom the Mediterranean to
the ;indu Kush remains in a war or near-war status* 1n a !undamenta% sense) +*S* strate'
has not shi!ted under O"ama: The +nited States remains in a s&oi%in'-atta(# state*
As we have dis(ussed) the &rimar +*S* interest in this re'ion is two!o%d* The !irst
as&e(t is to &revent the or'ani,ation o! !urther maDor terrorist atta(#s on the +nited
States* The se(ond is to &revent a% 9aeda and other radi(a% 1s%amist 'rou&s !rom ta#in'
(ontro% o! an si'ni!i(ant (ountries*
+*S* o&erations in this re'ion main% (onsist o! s&oi%in' atta(#s aimed at
!rustratin' the Dihadists. &%ans rather than at im&osin' -ashin'ton.s wi%% in the re'ion*
The +nited States %a(#s the resour(es to im&ose its wi%%) and u%timate% doesn.t need to*
Rather) it needs to wre(# its adversaries. &%ans* 1n "oth A!'hanistan and 1ra@) the &rimar
Ameri(an a&&roa(h (onsists o! this ta(#* That is the nature o! s&oi%in' atta(#s* O"ama has
thus (ontinued the Bush administration.s a&&roa(h to the war) thou'h he has shi!ted some
detai%s*
T,e '),a()s+ V)e43o)0+
1t is there!ore time to (onsider the war !rom the Dihadist &oint o! view* This is a
di!!i(u%t tas# 'iven that the Dihadists do not (onstitute a sin'%e) or'ani,ed !or(e with a
(ommand stru(ture and sta!! that (ou%d e5&ress that view* 1t is (om&ounded " the !a(t
that a% 9aeda &rime) our term !or the ori'ina% a% 9aeda that ordered and or'ani,ed the
atta(#s on AP88 and in Madrid and Fondon) is now %ar'e% shattered*
-hi%e "earin' this in mind) it must "e remem"ered that this !ra'mentation is "oth
a strate'i( ne(essit and a wea&on o! war !or Dihadists* The +nited States (an stri#e the
(enter o! 'ravit o! an Dihadist !or(e* 1t natura%% (annot stri#e what doesn.t e5ist) so the
Dihadist movement has "een or'ani,ed to den the +nited States that (enter o! 'ravit) or
(ommand stru(ture whi(h) i! destroed) wou%d %eave the movement wre(#ed* Thus) even
were Osama "in Faden #i%%ed or (a&tured) the Dihadist movement is set u& to (ontinue*
So a%thou'h we (annot s&ea# o! a Dihadist view&oint in the sense that we (an
s&ea# o! an Ameri(an view&oint) we (an as# this @uestion: 1! we were a Dihadist !i'hter at
the end o! 677A) what wou%d the wor%d %oo# %i#e to us) what wou%d we want to a(hieve
and what mi'ht we do to tr to a(hieve that<
-e must "ear in mind that a% 9aeda "e'an the war with a (ore strate'i( intent)
name%) to s&ar# revo%utions in the Sunni Mus%im wor%d " overthrowin' e5istin'
re'imes and re&%a(in' them with Dihadist re'imes* This was &art o! the Dihadist 'rou&.s
%on'-term strate' to re(reate a mu%tinationa% 1s%amist em&ire united under a% 9aeda.s
inter&retation o! Shariah*
The means toward this end invo%ved demonstratin' to the Mus%im masses that
their re'imes were (om&%i(it with the %eadin' Christian &ower) i*e*) the +nited States) and
that on% Ameri(an "a(#in' #e&t these Sunni re'imes in &ower* B stri#in' the +nited
States on Se&t* 88) a% 9aeda wanted to demonstrate that the +nited States was !ar more
vu%nera"%e than "e%ieved) " e5tension demonstratin' that +*S* (%ient re'imes were not as
&ower!u% as the a&&eared* This was meant to 'ive the 1s%ami( masses a sense that
u&risin's a'ainst Mus%im re'imes not dedi(ated to Shariah (ou%d su((eed* 1n their view)
an Ameri(an mi%itar res&onse ? an inevita"i%it a!ter AP88 ? wou%d !urther in(ite the
Mus%im masses rather than intimidate them*
The %ast ei'ht ears o! war have u%timate% "een disa&&ointin' to the Dihadists)
however* Rather than a massive u&risin' in the Mus%im wor%d) not a sin'%e re'ime has
"een re&%a(ed with a Dihadist re'ime* The &rimar reason has "een that Mus%im re'imes
a%%ied with the +nited States de(ided the had more to !ear !rom the Dihadists than !rom
the Ameri(ans) and (hose to use their inte%%i'en(e and &o%iti(a% &ower to atta(# and
su&&ress the Dihadists* 1n other words) rather than tri''er an u&risin') the Dihadists
'enerated a stren'thened anti-Dihadist res&onse !rom e5istin' Mus%im states* The s&oi%in'
atta(#s in A!'hanistan and 1ra@) as we%% as in other (ountries in the ;orn o! A!ri(a and
/orth A!ri(a) 'enerated some su&&ort !or the Dihadists) "ut that su&&ort has sin(e
diminished and the s&oi%in' atta(#s have disru&ted these (ountries su!!i(ient% to ma#e
them unsuita"%e as "ases o! o&eration !or anthin' more than %o(a% atta(#s* 1n other
words) the atta(#s tied the Dihadists u& in %o(a% (on!%i(ts) divertin' them !rom o&erations
a'ainst the +nited States and 0uro&e*
+nder this intense &ressure) the Dihadist movement has !ra'mented) thou'h it
(ontinues to e5ist* 1n(a&a"%e o! de(isive a(tion at the moment) it has 'oa%s "eond
survivin' as a !ra'mented entit) a%"eit with some !air% su"stantia% !ra'ments* And it is
(au'ht on the horns o! a strate'i( di%emma*
O&erationa%%) Dihadists (ontinue to "e en'a'ed a'ainst the +nited States* 1n
A!'hanistan) the Dihadist movement is re%in' on the Ta%i"an to tie down and wea#en
Ameri(an !or(es* 1n 1ra@) the remnants o! the Dihadist movement are doin' what the (an
to shatter the +*S*-s&onsored (oa%ition 'overnment in Ba'hdad and !urther tie down
Ameri(an !or(es " atta(#in' Shiites and #e mem"ers o! the Sunni (ommunit* Outside
these two theaters) the Dihadists are wor#in' to atta(# e5istin' Mus%im 'overnments
(o%%a"oratin' with the +nited States ? &arti(u%ar% 4a#istan ? "ut with &eriodi( atta(#s
stri#in' other Mus%im states*
These atta(#s re&resent the !ra'mentation o! the Dihadists* Their a"i%it to &roDe(t
&ower is %imited* B de!au%t) the have a((ordin'% ado&ted a strate' o! %o(a%ism) in
whi(h their &rimar intent is to stri#e e5istin' 'overnments whi%e simu%taneous% tin'
down Ameri(an !or(es in a ho&e%ess attem&t to sta"i%i,e the situation*
The strate'i( di%emma is this: The +nited States is en'a'ed in a s&oi%in' a(tion
with the &rimar aim o! (reatin' (onditions in whi(h Dihadists are "ott%ed u& !i'htin'
indi'enous !or(es rather than "ein' !ree to &%an atta(#s on the +nited States or
sstemati(a%% tr to &u%% down e5istin' re'imes* And the (urrent Dihadist strate' &%as
dire(t% into Ameri(an hands* First) the atta(#s re(ruit Mus%im re'imes into de&%oin'
their inte%%i'en(e and se(urit !or(es a'ainst the Dihadists) whi(h is &re(ise% what the
+nited States wants* Se(ond%) it shi!ts Dihadist stren'th awa !rom transnationa% a(tions
to %o(a% a(tions) whi(h is a%so what the +nited States wants* These %o(a% atta(#s) whi(h
#i%% most% Mus%ims) a%so serve to a%ienate man Mus%ims !rom the Dihadists*
The Dihadists are (urrent% &%ain' dire(t% into +*S* hands "e(ause) rhetori(
aside) the +nited States (annot re'ard insta"i%it in the 1s%ami( wor%d as a &ro"%em* Fet.s
"e more &re(ise on this: An idea% out(ome !or the +nited States wou%d "e the (reation o!
sta"%e) &ro-Ameri(an re'imes in the re'ion ea'er and a"%e to atta(# and destro Dihadist
networ#s* There are some re'imes in the re'ion %i#e this) su(h as Saudi Ara"ia and 0'&t*
The &ro"a"i%it o! (reatin' su(h sta"%e) ea'er and (a&a"%e re'imes in &%a(es %i#e 1ra@ or
A!'hanistan is un%i#e% in the e5treme* The se(ond-"est out(ome !or the +nited States
invo%ves a (on!%i(t in whi(h the &rimar !or(es "att%in' ? and neutra%i,in' ? ea(h other
are Mus%im) with the Ameri(an !or(es in a se(ondar ro%e* This has "een a(hieved to
some e5tent in 1ra@* O"ama.s 'oa% is to (reate a situation in A!'hanistan in whi(h A!'han
'overnment !or(es en'a'e Ta%i"an !or(es with %itt%e or no +*S* invo%vement* Meanwhi%e)
in 4a#istan the Ameri(ans wou%d %i#e to see an e!!e(tive e!!ort " 1s%ama"ad to su&&ress
Dihadists throu'hout 4a#istan* 1! the (annot 'et su&&ression) the +nited States wi%% sett%e
!or a %on' interna% (on!%i(t that wou%d tie down the Dihadists*

A %elfBDefea+)05 %+ra+e5-
The Dihadists are en'a'ed in a se%!-de!eatin' strate' when the s&read out and a(t
%o(a%%* The one 'oa% the must have) and the one out(ome the +nited States !ears) is the
(reation o! sta"%e Dihadist re'imes* The strate' o! %o(a%% !o(used terrorism has &roved
ine!!e(tive* 1t not on% !ai%s to mo"i%i,e the 1s%ami( masses) it (reates su"stantia%
(oa%itions see#in' to su&&ress the Dihadists*
The Dihadist atta(# on the +nited States has !ai%ed* The &resen(e o! +*S* !or(es in
1ra@ and A!'hanistan has resha&ed the "ehavior o! re'iona% 'overnments* Fear o!
insta"i%it 'enerated " the war has 'enerated (ountera(tions " re'iona% 'overnments*
Contrar to what the Dihadists e5&e(ted or ho&ed !or) there was no mass u&risin' and
there!ore no (ounter to anti-Dihadist a(tions " re'imes see#in' to &%a(ate the +nited
States* The ori'ina% !ear) that the +*S* &resen(e in 1ra@ and A!'hanistan wou%d 'enerate
massive hosti%it) was not wron'* But the hosti%it did not stren'then the Dihadists) and
instead 'enerated anti-Dihadist a(tions " 'overnments*
From the Dihadist &oint o! view) it wou%d seem essentia% to 'et the +*S* mi%itar
out o! the re'ion and to re%a5 anti-Dihadist a(tions " re'iona% se(urit !or(es* Continued
s&oradi( and ine!!e(tive a(tion " Dihadists a(hieves nothin' and 'enerates !or(es with
whi(h the (an.t (o&e* 1! the +nited States withdrew) and e5istin' tensions within
(ountries %i#e 0'&t) Saudi Ara"ia or 4a#istan were a%%owed to mature undistur"ed) new
o&&ortunities mi'ht &resent themse%ves*
Most si'ni!i(ant%) the withdrawa% o! +*S* troo&s wou%d stren'then 1ran* The
Dihadists are no !riends o! Shiite 1ran) and neither are 1ran.s nei'h"ors* 1n %oo#in' !or a
too% !or &o%iti(a% mo"i%i,ation in the 2u%! re'ion or in A!'hanistan a"sent a +*S* &resen(e)
the 1ranian threat wou%d "est serve the Dihadists* The 1ranian threat (om"ined with the
wea#ness o! re'iona% Mus%im &owers wou%d a%%ow the Dihadists to Doin a re%i'ious and
nationa%ist o&&osition to Tehran* The a"i%it to Doin re%i'ion and nationa%ism wou%d turn
the %o(a% !o(us !rom somethin' that ta#es the Dihadists awa !rom re'ime (han'e to
somethin' that mi'ht ta#e them toward it*
The sin'%e most &ower!u% motivator !or an Ameri(an withdrawa% wou%d "e a
&eriod o! o&en @uies(en(e* An o&en% stated (onsensus !or standin' down) in &arti(u%ar
"e(ause o! a diminished terrorist threat) wou%d !a(i%itate somethin' the O"ama
administration wants most o! a%%: a +*S* withdrawa% !rom the re'ion* 4rovidin' the
Ameri(ans with a Dusti!i(ation !or %eavin' wou%d o&en the door !or new &ossi"i%ities* The
Dihadists &%aed a hand on AP88 that the ho&ed wou%d &rove a !u%% house* 1t turned into a
"ust* -hen that ha&&ens) ou !o%d our hand and &%a a new one* And there is a%was a
hand "ein' dea%t so %on' as ou have some (hi&s %e!t*
The (ha%%en'e here is that the Dihadists have (reated a situation in whi(h the have
de!ined their own (redi"i%it in terms o! their a"i%it to (arr out terrorist atta(#s)
however &oor% e5e(uted or (ounter&rodu(tive the have "e(ome* A% 9aeda &rime.s
end%ess (a%%s !or a(tion have "e(ome the strate'i( !oundation !or the Dihadists: A(tion has
"e(ome an end in itse%!* The manner in whi(h the Dihadists have survived as a series o!
"are% (onne(ted &ods o! individua%s s(attered a(ross (ontinents has denied the +nited
States a (enter o! 'ravit to stri#e* 1t has a%so turned the Dihadists !rom a semi-or'ani,ed
!or(e into one in(a&a"%e o! de!inin' strate'i( shi!ts*
The Dihadists. strate'i( di%emma is that the have %ost the 6778-677G &hase o! the
war "ut are not de!eated* To "e'in to re(ou&) the must shi!t their strate'* But the %a(#
the means !or doin' so "e(ause o! what the have had to do to survive* At the same time)
there are other &ro(esses in &%a* The Ta%i"an) whi(h has even more reason to want the
+nited States out o! A!'hanistan) mi'ht shi!t to an anti-Dihadist strate': 1t (ou%d %i@uidate
a% 9aeda) return to &ower in A!'hanistan and then re(onsider its strate' %ater* So) too) in
other areas*
From the +*S* &oint o! view) an o&en retreat " the Dihadists wou%d &rovide short-
term re%ie! "ut %on'-term &ro"%ems* The moment when the enem sues !or &ea(e is the
moment when the &ressure shou%d "e in(reased rather than de(reased* But dire(t +*S*
interests in the re'ion are so minima% that a more distant terrorist threat wi%% "e hand%ed in
a more distant !uture* As the Dihadists are too !ra'mented to ta#e strate'i( &ositions) +*S*
&ressure wi%% (ontinue in an event*
Odd% enou'h) as mu(h as the +nited States is un(om!orta"%e in the &osition it is
in) the Dihadists are in a mu(h worse &osition*
+*S*) Cemen: Fessons From a Fai%ed Air%iner Bom"in'
5ec) 28, 2009
+mar Farou# A"du%muta%%a") a 6E-ear-o%d /i'erian man) attem&ted to detonate
an im&rovised e5&%osive devi(e H103I he had smu''%ed on "oard a /orthwestP3e%ta
Air%ines !%i'ht !rom Amsterdam to 3etroit on 3e(* 65* The devi(e did not !un(tion as
intended) (at(hin' !ire instead o! detonatin'* 05&%osives (ontain a 'reat dea% o! &otentia%
ener') and thus "urn ver hot ? meanin' the resu%tin' !ire %e!t A"du%muta%%a" with
severe "urns* 4assen'ers and (rew mem"ers e5tin'uished the !%ames and restrained
A"du%muta%%a") who was arrested a!ter the air(ra!t %anded sa!e% in 3etroit*
Sin(e his arrest) A"du%muta%%a" re&orted% has "een ta%#in' with the authorities)
a%%e'ed% statin' that he was armed and dis&at(hed on his mission " a% 9aeda in the
Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I* A((ordin' to statements " A"du%muta%%a".s !ami%) the
oun' man re&orted% went to Cemen a!ter "e(omin' radi(a%i,ed) and his mi%itant
ideo%o' and disa&&earan(e a !ew months a'o had (aused the !ami% to re&ort him to the
/i'erian se(urit servi(e and !orei'n se(urit servi(es ? in(%udin' the +nited States.*
A"du%muta%%a" had studied me(hani(a% en'ineerin' in the +nited Kin'dom) and was
su&&osed to "e attendin' 'raduate s(hoo% in 3u"ai when he re&orted% moved to Cemen
to stud Shariah and (ut o!! (onta(t with his !ami%* 1n s&ite o! his !ami%.s warnin' to the
authorities) A"du%muta%%a".s name was not added to the +*S* 'overnment.s no-!% %ist*

A0 I00ova+)ve IED
Thou'h we are sti%% attem&tin' to 'ather a%% the te(hni(a% detai%s o! the devi(e to
"etter understand it) (ounterterrorism sour(es and media re&orts su''est it was (om&rised
o! a main (har'e o! 6*G oun(es o! 40T/ H&entaerthrito% tetranitrateI* The 40T/
re&orted% was wra&&ed in somethin' %i#e a (ondom and then a&&arent% sewn into a &air
o! underwear* A %i@uid '%(o%-"ased e5&%osive was stored in a srin'e and then inDe(ted
into the 40T/* -e are unsure at this &oint whether the devi(e was intended to detonate
due to a (hemi(a% rea(tion o! the two (om&ounds or i! there was another t&e o! detonator
invo%ved) %i#e the nonmeta%%i( tria(etone tri&ero5ide HTAT4I detonator used in Ri(hard
Reid.s shoe "om" devi(e*
This atta(# "ears severa% simi%arities with Reid.s attem&t* Reid.s devi(e re&orted%
(ontained a main (har'e o! a&&ro5imate% : oun(es o! 40T/ to "e detonated Hthou'h it
a%so !ai%edI on a +*S*-"ound air(ra!t over the Christmas ho%idas* An FB1 %a"orator test
o! a re&%i(a o! Reid.s shoe "om" devi(e showed it (ou%d have (aused (atastro&hi( dama'e
to a wide-"odied air(ra!t had it detonated*
That A9A4 shou%d "e invo%ved in su(h a &%ot to atta(# an air(ra!t usin' an 103
desi'n shou%d (ome as no sur&rise* STRATFOR !irst noted in Se&tem"er that the 'rou&
had demonstrated it was usin' innovative "om"ma#in' methods that threaten aviation
se(urit) and the 'rou& (%aimed res&onsi"i%it !or the attem&ted Christmas atta(# in a
statement &osted to a Jihadist -e" site on 3e(* 6G*
Sin(e A"du%muta%%a" was the on% o&erative dis&at(hed with su(h a devi(e on
Christmas) the o&eration &ro"a"% was a &roo!-o!-(on(e&t mission) simi%ar to the
"om"in' o! 4hi%i&&ine Air%ines F%i'ht :E: " A"du% Basit on 3e(* 88) 8AA:) or the shoe
"om"in' attem&t " Ri(hard Reid on 3e(* 6E) 6778* ;ad A"du%muta%%a".s attem&t
destroed the air(ra!t) it (ou%d have ta#en months or even ears !or the authorities to
determine the t&e o! devi(e used) as was the (ase with 4an Am F%i'ht 87E ? and the
authorities mi'ht never have !i'ured it out* As seen with the msterious (rash o! Air
Fran(e F%i'ht ::B on June 8) 677A) determinin' what (aused an air(ra!t to "rea# u& in
!%i'ht is di!!i(u%t*
1! A"du%muta%%a".s atta(# was a tria% run) it is %i#e% that other atta(#s with that
t&e o! devi(e wou%d have "een (ondu(ted had it su((eeded* Fi#e Reid.s !ai%ed shoe
"om" atta(#) however) the !ai%ure o! A"du%muta%%a".s devi(e has a%erted the authorities to
this s&e(i!i( method o! hidin' the 103 ? and has %i#e% sent the "om"ma#er "a(# to the
drawin' "oard to !ind a more re%ia"%e desi'n and another method o! (on(ea%ment*

I0creas)05 o0cer0s Over AQA!
-ashin'ton has "e(ome in(reasin'% (on(erned a"out A9A4 in re(ent months)
and has dramati(a%% ste&&ed u& its e!!orts to (oo&erate with Cemen and Saudi Ara"ia to
atta(# the 'rou&* 1n the &ast two wee#s) Doint air atta(#s and 'round assau%ts a'ainst
A9A4 (om&ounds in Cemen re&orted% have resu%ted in the deaths o! some 67-B7
mem"ers o! the 'rou& and the arrests o! :6 others* These atta(#s have re&orted% #i%%ed
severa% senior mem"ers o! the 'rou& Hthou'h we are sti%% waitin' !or (on!irmation o!
e5a(t% who was #i%%edI* A"du%muta%%a" %e!t Cemen "e!ore the 3e(* 6: atta(# and even
&ro"a"% "e!ore the 3e(* 8B stri#e* There!ore) it is @uite &ossi"%e that the &eo&%e who
trained and dis&at(hed him ? and &erha&s even the &erson who manu!a(tured the 103 he
(arried ? were #i%%ed or (a&tured in those two o&erations*
1! the "om"ma#er is sti%% a%ive and at %i"ert) however) he wi%% most %i#e% "e
!or(ed to (ome u& with a new desi'n* This &arti(u%ar "om"ma#er is %i#e% the same
innovative and ima'inative individua% res&onsi"%e !or the 103 used in the Au'* 6G atta(#
a'ainst 4rin(e Mohammed "in /ae!) the Saudi de&ut interior minister) and we (an
e5&e(t him to (ontinue to desi'n (reative 103s* The devi(e used in the atta(# a'ainst the
&rin(e was made in Cemen) used a main (har'e o! 40T/) and was hidden in the
atta(#er.s (rot(h or re(tum*
As STRATFOR has &revious% noted when dis(ussin' A9A4 and their innovative
103 desi'ns) there are man was to smu''%e 103 (om&onents on "oard an air(ra!t i! a
&erson has a %itt%e ima'ination and a((ess to e5&%osives* 1n %i'ht o! this ? as we noted in
Se&tem"er ? e!!orts to im&rove te(hni(a% methods to %o(ate 103 (om&onents must not
"e a"andoned) "ut the e5istin' vu%nera"i%ities in air&ort s(reenin' sstems demonstrate
that an em&hasis a%so needs to "e &%a(ed on !indin' the "om"er and not mere% on !indin'
the "om"*
Findin' the "om"er wi%% re@uire &%a(in' a 'reater re%ian(e on other methods su(h
as (he(#in' names) (ondu(tin' interviews and assi'nin' trained se(urit o!!i(ers to wat(h
!or a"norma% "ehavior and sus&i(ious demeanor* 1t a%so means that the o!ten-over%oo#ed
human e%ements o! air&ort se(urit) in(%udin' situationa% awareness) o"servation and
intuition) need to "e em&hasi,ed now more than ever*
Jihadism in 6787: A Transnationa% Fran(hise
6an) 9, 2010
For the &ast severa% ears) STRATFOR has &u"%ished an annua% !ore(ast on a%
9aeda and the Dihadist movement* Sin(e our !irst Dihadist !ore(ast in Januar 6776) we
have !o(used heavi% on the devo%ution o! Dihadism !rom a &henomenon &rimari%
invo%vin' the (ore a% 9aeda 'rou& to one "ased main% on the wider Dihadist movement
and the devo%vin') de(entra%i,ed threat it &oses*
The (entra% theme o! %ast ear.s !ore(ast was that a% 9aeda was an im&ortant !or(e
on the ideo%o'i(a% "att%e!ie%d) "ut that the e!!orts o! the +nited States and its a%%ies had
mar'ina%i,ed the 'rou& on the &hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d and #e&t it "ott%ed u& in a %imited
'eo'ra&hi( area* Be(ause o! this) we !ore(ast that the most si'ni!i(ant threat in terms o!
&hsi(a% atta(#s stemmed !rom re'iona% Dihadist !ran(hises and 'rassroots o&eratives and
not the a% 9aeda (ore* -e a%so wrote that we "e%ieved the threat &osed " su(h atta(#s
wou%d remain ta(ti(a% and not rise to the %eve% o! a strate'i( threat* To re!%e(t this rea%it)
we even dro&&ed a% 9aeda !rom the tit%e o! our annua% !ore(ast and sim&% named it
Jihadism in 677A: The Trends Continue*
The &ast ear &roved to "e ver "us in terms o! atta(#s and thwarted &%ots
emanatin' !rom Dihadist a(tors* But) as !ore(ast) the &rimar mi%itants invo%ved in
(arrin' out these terrorist &%ots were a%most e5(%usive% !rom re'iona% Dihadist 'rou&s
and 'rassroots o&eratives) and not mi%itants dis&at(hed " the a% 9aeda (ore* -e
anti(i&ate that this dnami( wi%% (ontinue) and i! anthin') the trend wi%% "e !or some
re'iona% !ran(hise 'rou&s to "e(ome even more invo%ved in transnationa% atta(#s) thus
!urther usur&in' the &osition o! a% 9aeda &rime at the van'uard o! Dihadism on the
&hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d*
A No+e o0 9Al Qae(a/
As a @ui(# reminder) STRATFOR views what most &eo&%e re!er to as =a% 9aeda>
as a '%o"a% Dihadist networ# rather than a mono%ithi( entit* This networ# (onsists o! three
distin(t entities* The !irst is a (ore van'uard or'ani,ation) whi(h we !re@uent% re!er to as
a% 9aeda &rime or the a% 9aeda (ore* The a% 9aeda (ore is (om&rised o! Osama "in Faden
and his sma%% (ir(%e o! (%ose) trusted asso(iates) su(h as Aman a%-Jawahiri* 3ue to
intense &ressure " the +*S* 'overnment and its a%%ies) this (ore 'rou& has "een redu(ed
in si,e sin(e AP88 and remains re%ative% sma%% "e(ause o! o&erationa% se(urit (on(erns*
This insu%ar 'rou& is %ain' %ow in 4a#istan near the A!'han "order and (om&rises on% a
sma%% &ortion o! the %ar'er Dihadist universe*
The se(ond %aer o! the networ# is (om&osed o! %o(a% or re'iona% terrorist or
insur'ent 'rou&s that have ado&ted Dihadist ideo%o'* Some o! these 'rou&s have &u"%i(%
(%aimed a%%e'ian(e to "in Faden and the a% 9aeda (ore and "e(ome what we re!er to as
!ran(hise 'rou&s) %i#e a% 9aeda in the 1s%ami( Ma'hre" HA91MI or a% 9aeda in the
Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I* Other 'rou&s ma ado&t some or a%% o! a% 9aeda.s Dihadist
ideo%o' and (oo&erate with the (ore 'rou&) "ut the wi%% maintain their inde&enden(e !or
a variet o! reasons* Su(h 'rou&s in(%ude the Tehri#-i-Ta%i"an 4a#istan HTT4I) Fash#ar-e-
Tai"a HFeTI and ;ar#at-u%-Jihad e-1s%ami H;+J1I* 1ndeed) in the (ase o! some %ar'er
or'ani,ations su(h as FeT) some o! the 'rou&.s !a(tions ma a(tua%% o&&ose (%ose
(oo&eration with a% 9aeda*
The third and "roadest %aer o! the networ# is the 'rassroots Dihadist movement)
that is) &eo&%e ins&ired " the a% 9aeda (ore and the !ran(hise 'rou&s "ut who ma have
%itt%e or no a(tua% (onne(tion to these 'rou&s*
As we move down this hierar(h) we a%so move down in o&erationa% (a&a"i%it
and e5&ertise in what we (a%% terrorist trade(ra!t ? the set o! s#i%%s re@uired to (ondu(t a
terrorist atta(#* The o&eratives "e%on'in' to the a% 9aeda (ore are 'enera%% "etter trained
than their re'iona% (ounter&arts) and "oth o! these %aers tend to "e !ar "etter trained than
the 'rassroots o&eratives* 1ndeed) man 'rassroots o&eratives trave% to &%a(es %i#e
4a#istan and Cemen in order to see# trainin' !rom these other 'rou&s*
The 1nternet has %on' &roved to "e an im&ortant too% !or these 'rou&s to rea(h out
to &otentia% 'rassroots o&eratives* Jihadist (hat rooms and -e" sites &rovide
indo(trination in Dihadist ideo%o' and a%so serve as a means !or as&irin' Dihadists to ma#e
(onta(t with %i#e-minded individua%s and even the Dihadist 'rou&s themse%ves*
=88D Forecas+ "ev)e4
Overa%%) our 677A !ore(ast was !air% a((urate* As noted a"ove) we wrote that the
+nited States wou%d (ontinue its o&erations to de(a&itate the a% 9aeda (ore and that this
wou%d (ause the 'rou& to "e mar'ina%i,ed !rom the &hsi(a% Dihad) and that has ha&&ened*
-hi%e we missed !ore(astin' the resur'en(e o! Dihadist mi%itant 'rou&s in Cemen
and Soma%ia in 677G) in our 677A !ore(ast we (overed these two (ountries (are!u%%* -e
wrote that the a% 9aeda !ran(hises in Cemen had ta#en a hit in 677G "ut that the (ou%d
re(over in 677A 'iven the o&&ortunit* 1ndeed) the 'rou&s re(eived a si'ni!i(ant "oost
when the mer'ed into a sin'%e 'rou& that a%so in(or&orated the remnants o! a% 9aeda in
Saudi Ara"ia) whi(h had "een !or(ed " Saudi se(urit to !%ee the (ountr* -e (%ose%
!o%%owed this new 'rou&) whi(h named itse%! a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I)
and STRATFOR was the !irst or'ani,ation we #now o! to dis(uss the threat A9A4 &osed
to (ivi% aviation when we raised this su"De(t on Se&t* 6 and e%a"orated on it Se&t* 86) in an
ana%sis tit%ed Conver'en(e: The Cha%%en'e o! Aviation Se(urit* That threat mani!ested
itse%! in the attem&t to destro an air%iner trave%in' !rom Amsterdam to 3etroit on
Christmas 3a 677A ? an o&eration that ver near% su((eeded*
Re'ardin' Soma%ia) we have a%so "een (%ose% !o%%owin' a% Sha"aa" and the other
Dihadist 'rou&s there) su(h as ;i,"u% 1s%am* A% Sha"aa" &u"%i(% &%ed'ed a%%e'ian(e to
Osama "in Faden in Se&tem"er 677A and there!ore has !orma%% Doined the ran#s o! a%
9aeda.s re'iona% !ran(hise 'rou&s* ;owever) as we !ore(ast %ast Januar) whi%e the
insta"i%it &resent in Soma%ia &rovides a% Sha"aa" the o&&ortunit to !%ourish) the
!a(tiona%i,ation o! the (ountr Hin(%udin' the Dihadist 'rou&s o&eratin' thereI has a%so
served to #ee& a% Sha"aa" !rom dominatin' the other a(tors and assumin' (ontro% o! the
(ountr*
-e a%so !ore(ast that) whi%e 1ra@ had "een re%ative% @uiet in 677G) the %eve% o!
vio%en(e there (ou%d sur'e in 677A due to the Awa#enin' Coun(i%s "ein' ta#en o!! the
+*S* &aro%% and havin' their (ontro% trans!erred to the Shiite-dominated 1ra@i
'overnment) whi(h mi'ht not &a them and inte'rate them into the armed !or(es* 1ndeed)
sin(e Au'ust) we have seen three waves o! maDor (oordinated atta(#s a'ainst 1ra@i
ministr "ui%din's in Ba'hdad %in#ed to the a% 9aeda a!!i%iate in 1ra@) the 1s%ami( State o!
1ra@* Sin(e this vio%en(e is tied to the &o%iti(a% situation in 1ra@) and there is a (%ear
(orre%ation "etween the !unds "ein' (ut to the Awa#enin' Coun(i%s and these atta(#s) we
anti(i&ate that this vio%en(e wi%% (ontinue throu'h the &ar%iamentar e%e(tions in Mar(h*
The atta(#s (ou%d even (ontinue a!ter that) i! the Sunni &owers in 1ra@ deem that their
interests are not "ein' addressed a&&ro&riate%*
As in 677G) we &aid (%ose attention in 677A to the situation in 4a#istan* This not
on% was "e(ause 4a#istan is the home o! the a% 9aeda (ore.s %eadershi& "ut a%so "e(ause
o! the threat that the TT4 and the other Dihadist 'rou&s in the (ountr &osed to the
sta"i%it o! the nu(%ear-armed state* As we wat(hed 4a#istan !or si'ns that it was
"e(omin' a !ai%ed state) we noted that the 'overnment was a(tua%% ma#in' (onsidera"%e
headwa in its !i'ht a'ainst its Dihadist insur'en(* 1ndeed) " %ate in the ear) the
4a#istanis had %aun(hed not on% a su((ess!u% o!!ensive in Swat and the adDa(ent distri(ts
"ut a%so an o!!ensive into South -a,iristan) the heart o! the TT4.s territor*
-e a%so !ore(ast that the "u%# o! the atta(#s wor%dwide in 677A wou%d "e
(ondu(ted " re'iona% Dihadist !ran(hise 'rou&s and) to a %esser e5tent) 'rassroots
Dihadists) rather than the a% 9aeda (ore) whi(h was (orre(t*
1n re%ation to atta(#s a'ainst the +nited States) we wrote that we did not see a
strate'i( threat to the +nited States !rom the Dihadists) "ut that the threat o! sim&%e atta(#s
a'ainst so!t tar'ets remained in 677A* -e said we had "een sur&rised that there were no
su(h atta(#s in 677G "ut that) 'iven the vu%nera"i%ities that e5isted and the ease with
whi(h su(h atta(#s (ou%d "e (ondu(ted) we "e%ieved the were (ertain% &ossi"%e* 3urin'
677A) we did see sim&%e atta(#s " 'rassroots o&eratives in Fitt%e Ro(#) Ar#ansas) and at
Fort ;ood) Te5as) a%on' with severa% other 'rassroots &%ots thwarted " authorities*

Forecas+ for =8#8
1n the (omin' ear we "e%ieve that) '%o"a%%) we wi%% see man o! the trends
(ontinue !rom %ast ear* -e "e%ieve that the a% 9aeda (ore wi%% (ontinue to "e
mar'ina%i,ed on the &hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d and stru''%e to remain re%evant on the ideo%o'i(a%
"att%e!ie%d* The re'iona% Dihadist !ran(hise 'rou&s wi%% (ontinue to "e at the van'uard o!
the &hsi(a% "att%e) and the 'rassroots o&eratives wi%% remain a &ersistent) thou'h %ower-
%eve%) threat*
One thin' we noti(ed in re(ent months was that the re'iona% 'rou&s were
"e(omin' more transnationa% in their atta(#s) with A9A4 invo%ved in the atta(# on Saudi
3e&ut 1nterior Minister 4rin(e Mohammed "in /ae! in Saudi Ara"ia as we%% as the
trans-At%anti( air%iner "om"in' &%ot on Christmas 3a* Additiona%%) we saw ;+J1
&%annin' an atta(# a'ainst the J%%ands-4osten news&a&er and (artoonist Kurt
-ester'aard in 3enmar#) and on Jan* 8) 6787) a Soma%i man re&orted% asso(iated with a%
Sha"aa" "ro#e into -ester'aard.s home armed with an a5e and #ni!e and a%%e'ed% tried
to #i%% him* -e "e%ieve that in 6787 we wi%% see more e5am&%es o! re'iona% 'rou&s %i#e a%
Sha"aa" and A9A4 rea(hin' out to "e(ome more transnationa%) &erha&s even (ondu(tin'
atta(#s in the +nited States and 0uro&e*
-e a%so "e%ieve that) due to the o&en nature o! the +*S* and 0uro&ean so(ieties
and the ease o! (ondu(tin' atta(#s a'ainst them) we wi%% see more 'rassroots &%ots) i! not
su((ess!u% atta(#s) in the +nited States and 0uro&e in the (omin' ear* The (on(e&t
"ehind A9A4 %eader /asir a%--ahashi.s arti(%e (a%%in' !or Dihadists to (ondu(t sim&%e
atta(#s a'ainst a variet o! tar'ets ma "e 'ainin' &o&u%arit amon' 'rassroots Dihadists*
Certain%) the a"ove-mentioned atta(# in 3enmar# invo%vin' an a5e and #ni!e was sim&%e
in nature* 1t (ou%d a%so have "een dead% had the (artoonist not had a &ani( room within
his residen(e* -e wi%% "e wat(hin' !or more sim&%e atta(#s*
As !ar as tar'ets) we "e%ieve that the wi%% remain %ar'e% the same !or 6787* So!t
tar'ets su(h as hote%s wi%% (ontinue to "e &o&u%ar) sin(e most Dihadists %a(# the a"i%it to
atta(# hard tar'ets outside o! (on!%i(t ,ones* ;owever) Dihadists have demonstrated a
(ontinuin' !i5ation on atta(#in' (ommer(ia% aviation tar'ets) and we (an anti(i&ate
additiona% &%ots and atta(#s !o(usin' on air(ra!t*
Re'iona%%) we wi%% "e wat(hin' !or the !o%%owin':
4a#istan: Can the +nited States !ind and #i%% the a% 9aeda (ore.s %eadershi&< A
4a#istani o!!i(ia% to%d the Chinese Oinhua news a'en( on Jan* : that terrorism
wi%% (ome to an end in 4a#istan in 6787) "ut we are not near% so o&timisti(* 0ven
thou'h the mi%itar has made 'ood &ro'ress in its South -a,iristan o!!ensive)
most o! the mi%itants moved to other areas o! 4a#istan rather than en'a'e in
!ronta% (om"at with 4a#istan.s arm* The area a%on' the "order with 4a#istan is
ru''ed and has &roved hard to &a(i! !or hundreds o! ears* -e don.t thin# the
4a#istanis wi%% "e a"%e to "rin' the area under (ontro% in on% one ear* C%ear%)
the 4a#istanis have made &ro'ress) "ut the are not out o! the woods* The TT4 has
%aun(hed a num"er o! atta(#s in the 4unDa"i (ore o! 4a#istan Hand in Kara(hiI and
we see no end to this vio%en(e in 6787*
A!'hanistan: -e wi%% (ontinue to (%ose% monitor Dihadist a(tors in this war-torn
(ountr* Our !ore(ast !or this (on!%i(t is in(%uded in our Annua% Fore(ast 6787)
&u"%ished on Jan* :*
Cemen: -e wi%% "e wat(hin' (%ose% to see i! A9A4 wi%% !o%%ow the norma%
Dihadist 'rou& %i!es&an o! ma#in' a "i' s&%ash) (omin' to the noti(e o! the wor%d
and then "ein' hit heavi% " the host 'overnment with +*S* su&&ort* This &attern
was e5hi"ited a !ew ears "a(# " A9A4.s Saudi a% 9aeda "rethren) and Dud'in'
" the o&erations in Cemen over the &ast month) it %oo#s %i#e 6787 mi'ht "e a
tou'h ear !or the 'rou&* 1t is im&ortant to note that the stri#es a'ainst the 'rou&
on 3e(* 8B and 3e(* 6: &redated the Christmas "om"in' attem&t) and the &ressure
on them wi%% undou"ted% "e rat(heted u& (onsidera"% in the wa#e o! that atta(#*
0ven as the memor o! the Christmas 3a atta(# "e'ins to !ade in the media and
&o%iti(a% (ir(%es) the !o(us on Cemen wi%% (ontinue in the (ounterterrorism
(ommunit*
1ndonesia: Can Tan,im 9aedat a%-Jihad !ind an e!!e(tive %eader to 'uide it "a(#
!rom the ed'e o! destru(tion a!ter the death o! /oordin Mohammad To& and the
deaths or (a&tures o! severa% o! his to& %ieutenants< Or wi%% the 1ndonesians "e
a"%e to enDo !urther su((ess a'ainst the 'rou&.s survivin' mem"ers<
/orth A!ri(a: -i%% A91M (ontinue to sh awa !rom the a% 9aeda (ore.s tar'etin'
&hi%oso&h and essentia%% !un(tion as the Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and
Com"at with a di!!erent name in A%'eria< Or wi%% A91M shi!t "a(# toward a%
9aeda.s &hi%oso&h o! atta(#in' the !ar enem and usin' sui(ide "om"ers and
%ar'e vehi(%e "om"s< 1n Mauritania) /i'er and Ma%i) wi%% the A91M-a!!i%iated
(e%%s there "e a"%e to &ro'ress "eond amateurish atta(#s and &ett "anditr to
"e(ome a (redi"%e mi%itant or'ani,ation<
Soma%ia: -e "e%ieve the !a(tiona%ism in Soma%ia and within the Dihadist
(ommunit there wi%% (ontinue to ham&er a% Sha"aa"* The @uestions we wi%% "e
%oo#in' to answer are: -i%% a% Sha"aa" "e a"%e to 'ain si'ni!i(ant (ontro% o! areas
o! the (ountr that (an "e used to har"or and train !orei'n mi%itants< And) wi%% the
'rou& de(ide to use its (onta(ts within the Soma%i dias&ora to (ondu(t atta(#s in
0ast A!ri(a) South A!ri(a) Austra%ia) 0uro&e and the +nited States< -e "e%ieve
that a% Sha"aa" is on its wa to "e(omin' a transnationa% &%aer and that 6787
ma we%% "e the ear that it "rea#s out and then draws internationa% attention %i#e
A9A4 has done in re(ent months*
1ndia: -e anti(i&ate that Kashmiri Dihadist 'rou&s wi%% (ontinue to &%an atta(#s
a'ainst 1ndia in an e!!ort to stir-u& (ommuna% vio%en(e in that (ountr and sto#e
tensions "etween 1ndia and 4a#istan ? and &rovide a "reather to the Dihadist
'rou&s "ein' &ressured " the 'overnment o! 4a#istan*
As %on' as the ideo%o' o! Dihadism survives) the Dihadists wi%% "e a"%e to re(ruit
new mi%itants and their war a'ainst the wor%d wi%% (ontinue* The "att%e wi%% os(i%%ate
"etween &eriods o! hi'h and %ow intensit as re'iona% 'rou&s rise in &ower and are ta#en
down* -e don.t "e%ieve Dihadists &ose a strate'i( 'eo&o%iti(a% threat on a '%o"a%) or even
re'iona%) s(a%e) "ut the wi%% (ertain% (ontinue to %aun(h atta(#s and #i%% &eo&%e in 6787*
Ta#in' Credit !or Fai%ure
6an) 27, 2010
On Jan* 6:) a voi(e &ur&orted to "e that o! Osama "in Faden (%aimed
res&onsi"i%it !or the "ot(hed attem&t to "rin' down /orthwest Air%ines F%i'ht 65E on
Christmas 3a* The short one-minute and two-se(ond audio statement) whi(h was
"road(ast on A% Ja,eera te%evision) (a%%ed the 6E-ear-o%d /i'erian sus&e(t +mar Farou#
A"du%muta%%a" a hero and threatened more atta(#s* The voi(e on the re(ordin' said the
"om"in' attem&t was in res&onse to the situation in 2a,a and that the +nited States (an
never dream o! %ivin' in &ea(e unti% Mus%ims have &ea(e in the 4a%estinian territories* The
s&ea#er a%so said that atta(#s a'ainst the +nited States wou%d (ontinue as %on' as the
+nited States (ontinued to su&&ort 1srae%*
-hi%e the +*S* 'overnment has et to (on!irm that the voi(e is that o! "in Faden)
A% Ja,eera (%aims that the voi(e is indeed that o! the a% 9aeda %eader* Bin Faden.s hea%th
and we%!are have "een the to&i( o! a %ot o! dis(ussion and de"ate over the &ast severa%
ears) and man inte%%i'en(e o!!i(ia%s "e%ieve he is dead* Be(ause o! this) an time an
audio re(ordin' &ur&ortin' to "e !rom "in Faden is re%eased it re(eives heav !orensi(
s(rutin* Some te(hni(a% e5&erts "e%ieve that re(ent statements su&&osed% made " "in
Faden have "een (o""%ed to'ether " mani&u%atin' &ortions o! %on'er "in Faden
messa'es that were &revious% re(orded* 1t has "een STRATFOR.s &osition !or severa%
ears that) whether "in Faden is dead or a%ive) the a% 9aeda (ore has "een mar'ina%i,ed
" the e!!orts o! the +nited States and its a%%ies to the &oint where the 'rou& no %on'er
&oses a strate'i( threat*
/ow) @uestions o! "in Faden.s status aside) the re(ordin' was most %i#e% re%eased
throu'h (hanne%s that he%&ed assure A% Ja,eera that the re(ordin' was authenti(* This
means that we (an "e somewhat (on!ident that the messa'e was re%eased " the a% 9aeda
(ore* The !a(t that the a% 9aeda (ore wou%d attem&t to ta#e (redit !or a !ai%ed atta(# in a
re(ordin' is @uite interestin'* But &erha&s even more interestin' is the (ore 'rou&.s (%aim
that the atta(# was (ondu(ted "e(ause o! +*S su&&ort !or 1srae% and the treatment o! the
4a%estinians %ivin' in 2a,a*
%.oke a0( 1)rrors
3urin' the ear% ears o! a% 9aeda.s e5isten(e) the 'rou& did not ta#e (redit !or
atta(#s it (ondu(ted* 1n !a(t) it e5&%i(it% denied invo%vement* 1n interviews with the
&ress) "in Faden o!ten &raised the atta(#ers whi%e) with a "it o! a win# and a nod) he
denied an (onne(tion to the atta(#s* Bin Faden issued &u"%i( statements a!ter the Au'ust
8AAG 0ast A!ri(a em"ass "om"in's and the AP88 atta(#s !%at% denin' an invo%vement*
1n !a(t) "in Faden and a% 9aeda (ontinued to &u"%i(% den an (onne(tion to the AP88
atta(#s unti% a!ter the +*S* invasion o! A!'hanistan* These denia%s o! the AP88 atta(#s have
ta#en on a %i!e o! their own and have "e(ome the "asis o! (ons&ira( theories that the
+nited States or 1srae% was "ehind the atta(#s Hdes&ite %ater statements " "in Faden and
his de&ut) Aman a%-Jawahiri) that (ontradi(ted ear%ier statements and (%aimed (redit !or
AP88I*
1n the ears !o%%owin' AP88) the a% 9aeda (ore has (ontinued to "as# in the '%or
o! that s&e(ta(u%ar% su((ess!u% atta(#) "ut it has not "een a"%e to &rodu(e the %on'-
awaited en(ore* This is not !or %a(# o! e!!ortK the a% 9aeda (ore has "een invo%ved in
severa% attem&ted atta(#s a'ainst the +nited States) su(h as the attem&ted shoe-"om"
atta(# in 3e(em"er 6778) dis&at(hin' Jose 4adi%%a to the +nited States in Ma o! 6776 to
&ur&orted% tr to (ondu(t a dirt-"om" atta(#) and the Au'ust 6776 thwarted &%ot to
atta(# trans-At%anti( air%iners usin' %i@uid e5&%osives* 1nterestin'%) whi%e ea(h o! these
!ai%ed attem&ts has "een tied to the a% 9aeda (ore " inte%%i'en(e and investi'ative e!!orts)
the 'rou& did not &u"%i(% (%aim (redit !or an o! them* -hi%e the 'rou&.s %eadershi& has
made re&eated threats that the were 'oin' to %aun(h an atta(# that wou%d dwar! AP88)
the sim&% have "een una"%e to do so* 1ndeed) the on% &%ot that (ou%d have (ome
anwhere near the destru(tion o! the AP88 atta(#s was the %i@uid e5&%osives &%ot) and that
was !oi%ed ear% on in the o&erationa% &%annin' &ro(ess ? "e!ore the e5&%osive devi(es
were even !a"ri(ated*
/ow) "a(# to the !ai%ed "om"in' attem&t on Christmas 3a* First) the Cemeni
!ran(hise o! a% 9aeda) a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I) has a%read (%aimed
res&onsi"i%it !or the atta(#) and eviden(e stron'% su''ests that A9A4 is the
or'ani,ation with whi(h A"du%muta%%a" had dire(t (onta(t* 1ndeed) whi%e some mem"ers
o! A9A4 have had &rior (onta(t with "in Faden) there is %itt%e to su''est that "in Faden
himse%! or what remains o! a% 9aeda.s (ore %eadershi& has an dire(t ro%e in &%annin' an
o! the o&erations (ondu(ted " A9A4* The (ore 'rou& does not e5er(ise that t&e o!
(ontro% over the a(tivities o! an o! its re'iona% 'rou&s* These 'rou&s are more %i#e
inde&endent !ran(hises that o&erate under the same "rand name rather than &arts o! a
sin'%e hierar(hi(a% or'ani,ation* 0a(h !ran(hise has %o(a% %eadershi& and is se%!-!undin')
and the !ran(hises !re@uent% diver'e !rom '%o"a% a% 9aeda =(or&orate &o%i(ies> in areas
%i#e tar'et se%e(tion*
Furthermore) in an environment where the Dihadists #now that +*S* si'na%s-
inte%%i'en(e e!!orts are #een% !o(used on the a% 9aeda (ore and the re'iona% !ran(hise
'rou&s) dis(ussin' an t&e o! o&erationa% in!ormation via te%e&hone or e-mai% !rom
Cemen to 4a#istan wou%d "e ver dan'erous ? and terri"%e o&erationa% se(urit* +sin'
(ouriers wou%d "e more se(ure) "ut the a% 9aeda (ore %eadershi& is ver (autious in its
(ommuni(ations with the outside wor%d H;e%%!ire missi%es (an have that e!!e(t on &eo&%eI)
and an su(h (ommuni(ations wi%% "e ver s%ow and de%i"erate* For the a% 9aeda (ore
%eadershi&) the &ri(e o! &hsi(a% se(urit has "een the %oss o! o&erationa% (ontro% over the
%ar'er movement*
Ta#in' thin's one ste& !urther) not on% is the (ore o! a% 9aeda attem&tin' to ta#e
(redit !or somethin' it did not do) "ut it is (%aimin' (redit !or an atta(# that did %itt%e more
than severe% "urn the atta(#er in a ver sensitive anatomi(a% area* Some have ar'ued that
the atta(# was su((ess!u% "e(ause it has insti%%ed !ear and (aused the +*S* 'overnment to
rea(t) "ut (%ear% the atta(# wou%d have had a !ar 'reater im&a(t had the devi(e detonated*
The !ai%ed atta(# was (ertain% not what the o&erationa% &%anners had in mind when the
dis&at(hed A"du%muta%%a" on his mission*
This attem&t " the a% 9aeda (ore to &ander !or &u"%i(it) even thou'h it means
(%aimin' (redit !or a "ot(hed atta(#) (%ear% demonstrates how !ar the (ore 'rou& has
!a%%en sin(e the das when "in Faden "%ithe% denied res&onsi"i%it !or AP88*

T,e !ales+)0)a0 Focus
Sin(e the "e'innin' o! "in Faden.s &u"%i( dis(ourse) the 4a%estinian (ause has
"een a (onsistent !eature* ;is 8AA6 de(%aration o! war and the 8AAG !atwa de(%arin' Dihad
a'ainst the -est and 1srae% are &rime e5am&%es* ;owever) the rea%it o! a% 9aeda.s
a(tivities has shown that) to "in Faden) the &%i'ht o! the 4a%estinians has "een %ess an area
o! 'enuine (on(ern and more o! a rhetori(a% devi(e to e5&%oit sm&ath !or the Dihadist
(ause and draw Mus%ims to a% 9aeda.s "anner*
Over the ears) a% 9aeda has wor#ed ver (%ose% with a num"er o! mi%itant
'rou&s in a variet o! &%a(es) in(%udin' the Sa%a!ist 2rou& !or 4rea(hin' and Com"at in
A%'eria) Jemaah 1s%amiah in 1ndonesia and the 0ast Tur#estan 1s%ami( Movement in
China* ;owever) whi%e one o! "in Faden.s mentors) A"du%%ah A,,am) was a 4a%estinian)
and there have "een severa% 4a%estinians a!!i%iated with a% 9aeda over the ears) the 'rou&
has done %itt%e to su&&ort 4a%estinian resistan(e 'rou&s su(h as ;amas) even thou'h
;amas Has the 4a%estinian o!!shoot o! the Mus%im BrotherhoodI s&ran' !rom the same
radi(a% 0'&tian 1s%amist mi%ieu that &rodu(ed a%-Jawahiri.s 0'&tian 1s%ami( Jihad
H01JI) whi(h a%-Jawahiri %ater !o%ded into a% 9aeda*
Jihadist mi%itant 'rou&s su(h as Jund Ansar A%%ah have attem&ted to esta"%ish
themse%ves in 2a,a) "ut these 'rou&s were seen as &ro"%emati( (om&etition) rather than
a%%ies) and ;amas @ui(#% stam&ed them out*
-ith %itt%e he%& (omin' !rom !e%%ow Sunnis) ;amas has (ome to re% on 1ran and
1ran.s Fe"anese &ro5) ;e,"o%%ah) as sour(es o! !undin') wea&ons and trainin'* 0ven
thou'h this su&&ort is !%owin' a(ross the Shiite-Sunni divide) a(tions s&ea# %ouder than
words) and 1ran and ;e,"o%%ah have shown that the (an de%iver* 1n man was) the
&o%iti(a% &hi%oso&h o! ;amas Hwhi(h has "een shar&% (riti(i,ed " a%-Jawahiri and
other a% 9aeda %eadersI is !ar (%oser to that o! 1ran than to that o! the Dihadists* -ith 1ran.s
he%&) ;amas has &ro'ressed !rom throwin' ro(#s and !irin' homemade 9assam ro(#ets
to %aun(hin' the %on'er ran'e 2rad and FaDr ro(#ets and (ondu(tin' in(reasin'% e!!e(tive
irre'u%ar-war!are o&erations a'ainst the 1srae%i arm*
;e,"o%%ah.s a"i%it to eDe(t 1srae% !rom southern Fe"anon and its stron' stand
a'ainst the 1srae%i armed !or(es in the 6776 war made a stron' im&ression in the Midd%e
0ast* 1ran) ;e,"o%%ah and ;amas are seen as ver rea% threats to 1srae%) whi%e a% 9aeda
has shown that it (an &rodu(e a %ot o! anti-1srae%i rhetori( "ut !ew resu%ts* Be(ause o! this)
1ran and its &ro5ies have "e(ome the van'uard o! the !i'ht a'ainst 1srae%) whi%e a% 9aeda
is sim&% trin' to #ee& its name in the &ress*
C%aimin' (redit !or !ai%ed atta(#s or(hestrated " others and trin' to %at(h on to
the !i'ht a'ainst 1srae% are Dust the %atest si'ns that a% 9aeda is trin' a%most too hard to
remain re%evant*
Jihadism: The 2rassroots 4arado5
2arch 18, 2010
Fast wee#) rumors that Adam 2adahn had "een arrested in Kara(hi) 4a#istan)
@ui(#% swe&t throu'h the '%o"a% media* -hen the dust sett%ed) it turned out that the
rumors were in(orre(tK the &erson arrested was not the Ameri(an-"orn a% 9aeda
s&o#esman* The e5(itement 'enerated " the rumors overshadowed a messa'e !rom
2adahn that the a% 9aeda media arm as Saha" had re%eased on Mar(h B) the same da as
the re&orted arrest* -hi%e man o! the messa'es !rom a% 9aeda !i'ures that as Saha" has
re%eased over the &ast severa% ears have "een re&etitive and @uite unremar#a"%e) a!ter
wat(hin' 2adahn.s Mar(h B messa'e) we "e%ieve that it is a messa'e too interestin' to
i'nore*
T,e 1essa5e
1n the messa'e) whi(h was tit%ed =A Ca%% to Arms)> 2adahn starts " te%%in'
Dihadists to stri#e tar'ets that are (%ose to them* ;e re&eats the a% 9aeda do(trina% &osition
that Dihad is a &ersona%) re%i'ious% mandated dut !or ever a"%e-"odied Mus%im* ;e then
te%%s his audien(e that =it is !or ou) %i#e our heroi( MuDahid "rother /ida% ;asan) to
de(ide how) when and where ou dis(har'e this dut* But whatever ou do) don.t wait !or
tomorrow to do what (an "e done toda) and don.t wait !or others to do what ou (an do
ourse%!*>
As the messa'e &ro'resses) 2adahn.s &raise o! Fort ;ood shooter ;asan
(ontinues* 2adahn %i!ts u& ;asan as an e5am&%e !or other Mus%ims to emu%ate: =the
MuDahid "rother /ida% ;asan is a &ioneer) a trai%"%a,er and a ro%e-mode% who has o&ened
a door) %it a &ath and shown the wa !orward !or ever Mus%im who !inds himse%! amon'
the un"e%ievers and earns to dis(har'e his dut to A%%ah*> ;e adds that ;asan was the
=idea% ro%e mode%> !or Mus%ims servin' in the armed !or(es o! -estern (ountries and o!
their Mus%im a%%ies* 2adahn.s messa'e is (%ear% intended to en(oura'e more Dihadists to
emu%ate ;asan and (ondu(t %one wo%! terrorist atta(#s*
Re'ardin' the &%annin' o! su(h atta(#s) 2adahn &raises ;asan !or "ein' a (are!u%
&%anner and !or not en'a'in' in a hast) re(#%ess or &oor% &%anned o&eration* ;e states
that ;asan (%ear% %earned !rom the mista#es o! others and did not re&eat them* A%thou'h
2adahn does not s&e(i! &arti(u%ar &%ots in whi(h he "e%ieves mista#es were made "
'rassroots Dihadists) he is undou"ted% re!errin' to (ases su(h as the Ma 677A arrest o! a
'rou& o! 'rassroots Dihadists in -hite 4%ains) /*C*) who (ame to the attention o!
authorities when the sou'ht he%& !rom a man who turned out to "e an FB1 in!ormant*
2adahn &raises ;asan !or &ra(ti(in' (are!u% o&erationa% se(urit " #ee&in' his &%ans to
himse%! and !or not dis(ussin' them over the &hone or 1nternet* ;e a%so notes that ;asan
did not ma#e the mista#e o! (on!idin' in a &erson who mi'ht have "een an FB1
in!ormant) as severa% other &%otters have done* 2adahn a%so sas ;asan =didn.t
unne(essari% raise his se(urit &ro!i%e or waste mone "etter s&ent on the o&eration itse%!
" trave%in' a"road to a(@uire s#i%%s and instru(tions whi(h (ou%d easi% "e a(@uired at
home) or indeed) dedu(ed " usin' one.s own &owers o! %o'i( and reasonin'*>
-hen dis(ussin' methods %one wo%! Dihadists (an use to (ondu(t their atta(#s)
2adahn notes that whi%e ;asan used !irearms in his assau%t at Fort ;ood) Dihadists are =no
%on'er %imited to "u%%ets and "om"s> when it (omes to wea&ons* =As the "%essed
o&erations o! Se&tem"er 88th showed) a %itt%e ima'ination and &%annin' and a minima%
"ud'et (an turn a%most anthin' into a dead%) e!!e(tive and (onvenient wea&on whi(h
(an ta#e the enem " sur&rise and de&rive him o! s%ee& !or ears on end*>
2adahn then turns his attention to tar'etin'* ;e (ounse%s %one wo%! Dihadists to
!o%%ow a three-&ron'ed tar'et se%e(tion &ro(ess* The shou%d (hoose a tar'et with whi(h
the are we%% a(@uainted) a tar'et that is !easi"%e to hit and a tar'et that) when stru(#) wi%%
have a maDor im&a(t* ;e notes that ;asan.s (hoi(e o! Fort ;ood !it a%% three (riteria) "ut
that Dihadists shou%d not thin# that mi%itar "ases are the on% hi'h-va%ue tar'ets in the
+nited States or other -estern (ountries* =On the (ontrar)> 2adahn insists) =there are
(ount%ess other strate'i( &%a(es) institutions and insta%%ations whi(h) " stri#in') the
Mus%im (an do maDor dama'e*>
;e then re%ates that Dihadists must attem&t to =!urther undermine the -est.s
a%read-stru''%in' e(onomies> " (are!u%% timed and tar'eted atta(#s a'ainst sm"o%s o!
(a&ita%ism in an e!!ort to =sha#e (onsumer (on!iden(e and sti!%e s&endin'*> H1n this wa)
2adahn.s messa'e tra(#s with &ast messa'es o! Osama "in Faden &ertainin' to e(onomi(
Dihad*I 2adahn notes that even a&&arent% unsu((ess!u% atta(#s on -estern mass-
trans&ortation sstems (an "rin' maDor (ities to a ha%t) (ost "i%%ions o! do%%ars and send
(or&orations into "an#ru&t(* ;e a%so (a%%s u&on Dihadists to #i%% or (a&ture =%eadin'
Crusaders and Jionists in 'overnment) industr and media*>
To summari,e his %essons on tar'etin') 2adahn ur'es Dihadists to =%oo# !or tar'ets
whi(h e&itomi,e -estern de(aden(e) de&ravit) immora%it and atheism ? tar'ets whi(h
the enem and his mouth&ie(es wi%% have trou"%e trin' to &ass o!! to the (onservative
Mus%im maDorit as i%%e'itimate tar'ets !u%% o! inno(ent &eo&%e*>
I.3l)ca+)o0s
First) it is si'ni!i(ant that 2adahn) a re&resentative o! the (ore a% 9aeda 'rou&) is
o&en% advo(atin' a ta(ti(a% a&&roa(h to terrorist atta(#s that was !irst &u"%i(% %aid out
" the %eader o! one o! the a% 9aeda !ran(hise 'rou&s* /asir a%--ahashi) head o! a%
9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I) authored an arti(%e that a&&eared in A9A4.s
Sada a%-Ma%ahim on%ine ma'a,ine in O(to"er 677A that en(oura'ed Dihadists to (ondu(t
sim&%e atta(#s with readi% avai%a"%e wea&ons* Sin(e that time) a%--ahashi.s 'rou& has
"een %in#ed to ;asan and the Fort ;ood shootin') the attem&t to destro /orthwest
Air%ines F%i'ht 65E on Christmas 3a 677A and the June 8) 677A) atta(# a'ainst an armed
!or(es re(ruitment (enter in Fitt%e Ro(#) Ar#* /orma%% it is the a% 9aeda (ore 'rou& that
sets the a'enda in the Dihadist rea%m) "ut the su((ess o! A9A4 has a&&arent% (aused the
(ore 'rou& to Dum& on the A9A4 "andwa'on and endorse a%--ahashi.s a&&roa(h*
1t is a%so te%%in' that the (ore a% 9aeda 'rou& (hose to &rodu(e this &arti(u%ar
video messa'e usin' 2adahn as the s&o#esman and not one o! their other ta%#in' heads
%i#e Aman a%-Jawahiri or A"u Caha a%-Fi"i* 2adahn) an Ameri(an) is o!ten used " the
'rou& to address the -est) and 0n'%ish s&ea#in'-&eo&%e in &arti(u%ar) so it is (%ear that the
intended audien(e !or his messa'e was as&irin' 'rassroots Dihadists in the -est* 1ndeed)
2adahn sas in the video that his messa'e is meant &arti(u%ar% !or Dihadists in the +nited
States) +nited Kin'dom and 1srae%* 4resented in 0n'%ish) 2adahn.s video is more easi%
a((essi"%e to 0n'%ish-s&ea#ers than a%--ahashi.s arti(%e) whi(h was written in Ara"i(*
0ven thou'h the a% 9aeda (ore has "een mar'ina%i,ed on the &hsi(a% "att%e!ie%d) when it
(omes to areas %i#e mi%itant &hi%oso&h) the &ronoun(ements o! the (ore 'rou& (arr more
in!%uen(e with the wider Dihadist wor%d than statements !rom a re'iona% !ran(hise su(h as
A9A4* -hen these two !a(tors are (om"ined) it is reasona"%e to assume that more &eo&%e
in the 0n'%ish-s&ea#in' wor%d ma &a attention to this (a%% to sim&%e atta(#s than the
did to a%--ahashi.s (a%% in O(to"er 677A* Nideo is a%so a more vira% t&e o! media than
the &rinted word) and video messa'es are #nown to "e ver a&&ea%in' to as&irin'
Dihadists*
Another thin' this video revea%s is the (ontinued wea#enin' o! the (ore a% 9aeda
'rou&* 1t has (ome a %on' wa !rom the ear% das o! as Saha") when "in Faden and other
a% 9aeda %eaders issued de!iant threats o! %aun(hin' a !o%%ow-on atta(# a'ainst the +nited
States that was 'oin' to "e even more destru(tive than AP88* The 'rou& is now as#in'
individua% Mus%ims to (ondu(t %one-wo%! terrorist atta(#s and to !o%%ow the e5am&%es o!
;asan and Mir Ama% Kansi) the 4a#istani (iti,en who (ondu(ted a shootin' at a sto&%i'ht
outside C1A head@uarters in Januar 8AAE that #i%%ed two C1A em&%oees* STRATFOR
has %on' "een tra(#in' the devo%ution o! the Dihadist threat !rom one &rimari% "ased u&on
a% 9aeda the 'rou& to one "ased u&on a wider Dihadist movement) and this video is a (%ear
indi(ation that the trend toward de(entra%i,ation is (ontinuin'*
This de(entra%i,ation means 'rassroots o&eratives wi%% (ontinue to "e a (on(ern*
The &ro"%ems &osed " su(h o&eratives are i%%ustrated " re(ent (ases invo%vin'
Ameri(an (iti,ens %i#e Co%%een FaRose Ha#a Jihad JaneI) Jamie 4au%in-Ramire, and
Shari! Mo"%e) who are a%% a%%e'ed to have "een invo%ved in re(ent Dihadist &%ots* As
"%onde Cau(asian women) FaRose and 4au%in-Ramire,) in &arti(u%ar) do not !it the
Dihadist o&erative stereot&e in most &eo&%e.s minds and serve to i%%ustrate the di!!i(u%t
o! (reatin' a terrorist &ro!i%e "ased on ra(e) ethni(it or 'ender*
But de(entra%i,ation (an a%so mean diminished (a&a"i%it* Counse%in' Dihadists
a'ainst trave%in' to trainin' (am&s in &%a(es %i#e 4a#istan or Cemen and advisin' them
not to (oordinate their atta(#s with others wi%% in(rease a 'rou&.s o&erationa% se(urit) "ut
it (an a%so have a serious im&a(t on its o&erationa% e!!e(tiveness* Traditiona%%) one o! the
"i''est &ro"%ems !or %one-wo%! o&erators is a(@uirin' the s#i%%s ne(essar to (ondu(t a
su((ess!u% terrorist atta(#* 0ven thou'h man -e" sites and mi%itar manua%s (an &rovide
instru(tion on su(h thin's as hand-to-hand (om"at and mar#smanshi&) there is no
su"stitute !or hands-on e5&erien(e in the rea% wor%d* This is es&e(ia%% true when it (omes
to the more su"t%e s#i%%s re@uired to (ondu(t a (om&%e5 terrorist atta(#) su(h as &%annin')
survei%%an(e and "om" ma#in'* This di!!i(u%t in trans%atin' intent into e!!e(tive a(tion
e5&%ains wh so !ew %one-wo%! mi%itants have "een a"%e to &u%% o!! s&e(ta(u%ar) mass-
(asua%t atta(#s*
/ot &uttin' their re(ruits throu'h a more !orma% trainin' re'imen a%so ma#es it
more di!!i(u%t !or 'rou&s to thorou'h% indo(trinate re(ruits with Dihadist ideo%o'* 1n
addition to &hsi(a% trainin') individua%s attendin' Dihadist trainin' (am&s t&i(a%%
re(eive hours o! theo%o'i(a% instru(tion ever da that is intended to 'round them in
Dihadist do(trine and motivate them to !o%%ow throu'h with their &%ans to en'a'e in
atta(#s*
A%% that said) whi%e the threat &osed " 'rassroots Dihadists is %ess severe than that
&osed " trained mi%itant o&eratives !rom the (ore a% 9aeda 'rou& or the re'iona%
!ran(hises) 'rassroots o&eratives (an sti%% #i%% &eo&%e ? and the most (ertain% wi%%
(ontinue to do so* Be(ause o! this) it is im&ortant to &a (are!u% attention to the tar'etin'
(riteria that 2adahn %as out* ;is !o(us on mass trans&ortation tar'ets means that
histori(a% Dihadist tar'ets su(h as air%iners and su"was (ontinue to "e at ris#* For
(or&orate se(urit dire(tors and the &rote(tive se(urit detai%s assi'ned to sa!e'uard hi'h-
&ro!i%e 'overnment o!!i(ia%s and &rivate individua%s) the video shou%d a%so serve as a
reminder o! the need to "e vi'i%ant* This is dou"% true !or those assi'ned to &rote(t
individua%s o! the Jewish !aith) who (ou%d "e thou'ht to !it "oth the =Crusader> and
=Jionist> %a"e%s in the mind o! a &ros&e(tive atta(#er*
For se(urit &ersonne%) the si%ver %inin' in a%% this is that 'rassroots o&eratives are
o!ten %a(#in' in street s#i%%s and tend to "e ver s%o&& when (ondu(tin' &reo&erationa%
survei%%an(e* This means that) whi%e these individua%s are in man was more di!!i(u%t to
identi! "e!ore an atta(# than o&eratives who (ommuni(ate with) or are somehow
(onne(ted to) Dihadist 'rou&s Hindeed) %one wo%ves (an seemin'% a&&ear out o! nowhereI)
their amateurish methods tend to ma#e them more vu%nera"%e to dete(tion than their
"etter-trained (ounter&arts* This is the &arado5 &resented " this (%ass o! mi%itant
o&erative ? and it is a &arado5 that wi%% (on!ront se(urit) inte%%i'en(e and %aw
en!or(ement o!!i(ers !or man ears to (ome*
Jihadists in 1ra@: 3own For The Count<
Apri 29, 2010
On A&ri% 65) The 1s%ami( State o! 1ra@ H1S1I &osted a statement on the 1nternet
(on!irmin' that two o! its to& %eaders) A"u Omar a%-Ba'hdadi and A"u Au" a%-Masri)
had "een #i%%ed A&ri% 8G in a Doint +*S*-1ra@i o&eration in Sa%ahuddin &rovin(e* A%-
Ba'hdadi Han 1ra@i a%so #nown as ;amid 3awud Muhammad Kha%i% a%-JawiI) was the
head o! the 1S1) an a% 9aeda-%ed Dihadist a%%ian(e in 1ra@) and went " the tit%e =Feader o!
the Faith!u%*> A%-Masri Han 0'&tian nationa% a%so #nown as A"u ;am,ah a%-MuhaDirI)
was the mi%itar %eader o! the 1S1 and head o! the 'rou&.s mi%itar win') a% 9aeda in 1ra@
HA91I*
A%-Masri re&%a(ed A"u Musa" a%-Jar@awi) who was #i%%ed in a +*S* airstri#e in
June 6776* A%-Jar@awi had a%ienated man 1ra@i Sunnis with his ruth%essness) and a%-
Ba'hdadi is thou'ht to have "een a&&ointed the emir o! the 1S1 in an e!!ort to &ut an 1ra@i
!a(e on Dihadist e!!orts in 1ra@ and to he%& ease the a%ienation "etween the !orei'n Dihadists
and the %o(a% Sunni &o&u%ation* A%-Masri) the %eader o! a% 9aeda in 1ra@ and the mi%itar
%eader o! the 1S1) was (onsidered the rea% o&erationa% %eader o! 1S1PA91 e!!orts in 1ra@*
STRATFOR viewed the initia% announ(ement " 1ra@i authorities o! the deaths o!
the two %eaders with a hea%th de'ree o! s#e&ti(ism* A!ter a%%) the had "een de(%ared
dead "e!ore) on% to %ater re%ease statements on the 1nternet mo(#in' the 1ra@i 'overnment
!or ma#in' !a%se (%aims* But the detai%s &rovided in the A&ri% 8A &ress (on!eren(e " 1ra@i
4rime Minister /ouri a%-Ma%i#i H(om&%ete with &hotos o! the de(easedI and the
(on!irmation " the +*S* mi%itar he%&ed a%%a those initia% dou"ts* The re(ent admission
" the 1S1) whi(h made a simi%ar statement !o%%owin' the death o! a%-Jar@awi) has a%% "ut
erased our dou"ts a"out the deaths*
But the 1S1.s statement has raised some other @uestions* 1t (%aimed that the deaths
o! the two %eaders wou%d not a!!e(t the 'rou&.s o&erations in 1ra@ "e(ause new mem"ers
had re(ent% Doined it* But when viewed in the (onte5t o! other re(ent deve%o&ments in
1ra@) it a&&ears that the o&erationa% (a&a"i%it o! the 1S1 wi%% indeed "e a!!e(ted ? at %east
in the near !uture*
"ece0+ Ac+)v)+-
The o&eration that resu%ted in the deaths o! a%-Ba'hdadi and a%-Masri did not
o((ur in a va(uum* Rather) it was a &art o! a series o! o&erations tar'etin' the 1S1 in
re(ent months* The raids have (ome as a resu%t o! a renewed e!!ort to (ounter the 1S1
!o%%owin' a resur'en(e in the 'rou&.s o&erations that in(%uded hi'h-&ro!i%e mu%ti&%e-
vehi(%e "om"in's dire(ted a'ainst tar'ets in (entra% Ba'hdad on Au'* 8A) 677A) O(t* 65)
677A) 3e(* G) 677A) and Jan* 65) 6787*
The raids that resu%ted in the deaths o! the 1S1 %eaders on A&ri% 8G were &art o! a
(hain o! events that stret(hes "a(# !or months) and a&&ear to "e the resu%t o! the e!!e(tive
e5&%oitation o! inte%%i'en(e 'ained in one raid used to (ondu(t the ne5t* For e5am&%e)
1ra@i MaD* 2en* 9asim Ata) the s&o#esman !or the Ba'hdad O&erations Command) to%d
A%-1ra@ia TN on A&ri% 67 that the inte%%i'en(e that %ed to the %o(ation o! a%-Ba'hdadi and
a%-Masri was o"tained durin' the Mar(h 88) 6787) arrest o! Mana! A"du% Raheem a%-
Rawi) the A91 (ommander in Ba'hdad* 1ra@i 'overnment sour(es (%aim a%-Rawi is the
man res&onsi"%e !or &%annin' the mu%ti&%e-vehi(%e "om"in's in Ba'hdad* 1! so) he is
another e!!e(tive o&erationa% %eader who has "een ta#en out o! the 1S1PA91 'ene &oo%*
Then) !o%%owin' the A&ri% 8G raid) Ahmad a%-+"adi ? a#a A"u-Suhai") whom
1ra@i o!!i(ia%s identi! as the A91 mi%itar (ommander !or the northern 1ra@i &rovin(es o!
/inevah) Sa%ahuddin and Kir#u# &rovin(es ? was #i%%ed A&ri% 67* The ne5t da) 1ra@i
authorities %o(ated an im&rovised e5&%osive devi(e H103I !a(tor in western An"ar
&rovin(e and sei,ed two vehi(%e "om"s and some sma%%er 103s* On A&ri% 66) the +*S*
Arm announ(ed the arrest o! a "om"ma#er in An"ar &rovin(e* On A&ri% 6E) 1ra@i &o%i(e
arrested another A91 mi%itar %eader in An"ar) Mahmoud Su%eiman) who was re&orted%
!ound with severa% 103s in his home* A%so on A&ri% 6E) an 1ra@i &o%i(e S-AT team
re&orted% #i%%ed two A91 %eaders durin' a raid in eastern Mosu%* The (%aimed that one
o! the A91 %eaders) Couse! Mohammad A%i) was a%so a "om"ma#er* 1n re(ent das)
do,ens o! other a%%e'ed A91 mem"ers have either surrendered or "een arrested in 3ia%a)
Mosu%) Sa%ahuddin and Basra*
There have even "een un(on!irmed re&orts that 1,,at a%-3ouri was (a&tured A&ri%
65* A%-3ouri) the =#in' o! (%u"s> in the +*S* mi%itar.s 677E de(# o! most-wanted 1ra@is
and who has a L87 mi%%ion "ount on his head) was a vi(e &resident o! 1ra@ under Saddam
;ussein and an im&ortant insur'ent %eader*
1n %ate Mar(h) &ro'ress was a%so made a'ainst A91 in Mosu%* Severa% sus&e(ts
were arrested or #i%%ed) and amon' the %atter were maDor A91 !i'ures Kha%id Muhammad
;asan Sha%%u" a%-Ju"uri) A"u Ahmad a%-A!ri and Bashar Kha%a! ;usan A%i a%-Ja"uri*
This t&e o! ra&id) se@uentia% a(tivit a'ainst Dihadists " +*S* and 1ra@i !or(es is
not a (oin(iden(e* 1t is the resu%t o! some si'ni!i(ant o&erationa% (han'es that were made
in 677B in the wa#e o! the Ameri(an sur'e in 1ra@* The then-(ommander o! the Joint
S&e(ia% O&erations Command HJSOCI) 2en* Stan%e M(Chrsta%) was instrumenta% in
!%attenin' hierar(hies and redu(in' "ureau(rati( ine!!i(ien(ies in "oth inte%%i'en(e and
s&e(ia% o&erations !or(es a(tivities inside 1ra@ in order to (reate a hi'h% inte'rated and
stream%ined or'ani,ation* The resu%t was the (a&a"i%it to ra&id% &%an and e5e(ute s&e(ia%
o&erations !or(es raids "ased on a(tiona"%e inte%%i'en(e with a %imited she%! %i!e ? and
then to ra&id% interro'ate an (a&tives) @ui(#% ana%,e an materia% o! inte%%i'en(e
va%ue sei,ed and ra&id% re-tas# !or(es in a series o! !o%%ow-on o&erations* The resu%tin'
hi'h tem&o o! o&erations was (onsidered enormous% su((ess!u% and a #e !a(tor in the
su((ess o! the sur'e) and re(ent deve%o&ments in 1ra@ a&&ear to "e a (ontinuation o! this
t&e o! ra&id and a''ressive a(tivit*
Su(h o&erations not on% (an &rodu(e ra&id 'ains in terms o! (a&turin' and #i%%in'
#e tar'ets) the a%so serve to disru&t and disorient the enem* A((ordin' to 1ra@i MaD*
2en* 9asim Ata) A91 is (urrent% in disarra and &ani() and he "e%ieves that the
or'ani,ation is a%so !a(in' mone &ro"%ems) sin(e it re&orted% has "een in (onta(t with
a% 9aeda &rime in an attem&t to se(ure !inan(ia% assistan(e* This stands in star# (ontrast
to the 6775 %etter in whi(h a% 9aeda /o* 6 Aman a%-Jawahiri as#ed A91 %eader a%-
Jar@awi !or !undin'* At that time there was a %ar'e !%ow o! men and mone into 1ra@) "ut
it now a&&ears that A91 is !a(in' some !inan(ia% di!!i(u%ties* Fo%%owin' the re(ent raids in
whi(h senior o&erationa% (ommanders and "om"ma#ers have "een (a&tured or #i%%ed) it
a%so a&&ears that the 'rou& ma a%so "e !a(in' some %eadershi& and o&erationa%-e5&ertise
di!!i(u%ties*
Lea(ers,)3
As STRATFOR has &revious% noted) %eadershi& is a (riti(a% !a(tor in the
o&erationa% su((ess o! a mi%itant 'rou&* -ithout s#i%%ed %eadershi&) mi%itant 'rou&s %ose
their a"i%it to (ondu(t e!!e(tive atta(#s) &arti(u%ar% ones o! a so&histi(ated nature*
Feadershi&) s#i%% and &ro!essiona%ism are the !a(tors that ma#e the di!!eren(e "etween a
mi%itant 'rou& wantin' to atta(# somethin' ? i*e*) its intent ? and the 'rou&.s a"i%it to
su((ess!u%% (arr out its intended atta(# ? i*e*) its (a&a"i%it* The "ottom %ine is that new
re(ruits sim&% (annot re&%a(e seasoned o&erationa% (ommanders) as the 1S1 su''ested in
its statement*
A%thou'h it mi'ht seem %i#e a sim&%e tas# to !ind a %eader !or a mi%itant 'rou&)
e!!e(tive mi%itant %eaders are hard to (ome "* +n%i#e most modern mi%itaries) mi%itant
'rou&s rare% invest mu(h time and ener' in %eadershi& deve%o&ment trainin'* To
(om&ound the &ro"%em) the %eader o! a mi%itant 'rou& needs to deve%o& a s#i%% set that is
@uite a "it "roader than most mi%itar %eaders* 1n addition to &ersona% attri"utes su(h as
ruth%essness) a''ressiveness and !ear%essness) mi%itant %eaders a%so must "e (harismati()
intuitive) (%ever and ins&irin'* This %ast attri"ute is es&e(ia%% im&ortant in an
or'ani,ation that see#s to re(ruit o&eratives to (ondu(t sui(ide atta(#s* Additiona%%) an
e!!e(tive mi%itant %eader must "e a"%e to re(ruit and train o&eratives) en!or(e o&erationa%
se(urit) raise !unds) &%an o&erations and then methodi(a%% e5e(ute a &%an whi%e avoidin'
the se(urit !or(es (onstant% huntin' the mi%itants down*
O! (ourse) not ever %eadershi& (han'e is disastrous to a mi%itant 'rou&*
Sometimes a new %eader "reathes new %i!e and ener' into an or'ani,ation H%i#e /asir a%-
-ahashi in CemenI) or the 'rou& has (om&etent %ieutenants a"%e to (ontinue to o&erate
e!!e(tive% a!ter the death o! the %eader H%i#e A91 a!ter the death o! a%-Jar@awiI* But the
(urrent environment in 1ra@) where numerous individua%s have "een ra&id% and
se@uentia%% #i%%ed or (a&tured) ma#es this sort o! order% %eadershi& re&%a(ement more
di!!i(u%t*
There!ore) it wi%% "e im&ortant to wat(h the 1S1 (are!u%% to see who is a&&ointed
as the 'rou&.s new emir and mi%itar (ommander* H1n &ra(ti(a% terms) the emir ma "e
easier to re&%a(e than the mi%itar (ommander) es&e(ia%% i! the !ormer is Dust a !i'urehead
and not a true o&erationa% (ommander*I The 'rou& ma have had a (%ear (hain o!
(ommand and (om&etent) desi'nated su((essors who have survived the re(ent o&erations*
But i! not) the %eadershi& va(uum at the to& (ou%d resu%t in in!i'htin' over (ontro%) or
resu%t in an ine!!e(tive %eader assumin' (ontro%* The Dur is sti%% out) "ut with the re(ent
su((esses a'ainst the 1S1) there is a ver 'ood (han(e that it ma ta#e some time !or the
'rou& to re'ain its !ootin'* This) o! (ourse) is the o"De(tive o! the u&-tem&o o&erations
re(ent% seen in 1ra@* 0!!e(tive (ounterterrorism &ro'rams see# to #ee& the mi%itants Hand
es&e(ia%% their %eadersI o!! "a%an(e " #i%%in' or (a&turin' them whi%e a%so ro%%in' u& the
%ower %eve%s o! the 'rou&* Mi%itants s(ram"%in' !or their %ives se%dom have the
o&&ortunit to &%an e!!e(tive atta(#s) and sustained &ressure ma#es it di!!i(u%t !or them to
re'ain the o!!ensive*
Fi#e o&erationa% %eaders) (om&etent "om"ma#ers are not eas to re&%a(e* The
a%so need to &ossess a "road set o! s#i%%s and re@uire a 'reat dea% o! trainin' and &ra(ti(a%
e5&erien(e to hone their s#i%%s* A master "om"ma#er is a rare and &re(ious (ommodit in
the mi%itant wor%d* There!ore) the "om"ma#ers re(ent% arrested in 1ra@ (ou%d &rove to "e
a%most as "i' a %oss to A91 as the o&erationa% %eaders*
-hen we dis(ussed the resur'en(e o! the 1S1PA91 "a(# in O(to"er) we noted that
at that time the had retained a 'reat dea% o! their (a&a"i%it and that the were a"%e to
'ather inte%%i'en(e) &%an atta(#s) a(@uire ordnan(e) "ui%d re%ia"%e 103s and e5e(ute
s&e(ta(u%ar atta(#s in the (enter o! Ba'hdad a'ainst 'overnment ministr "ui%din's* -e
a%so dis(ussed how the &o%ari,ation surroundin' the e%e(tion in 1ra@ was &rovidin' them
an o&&ortunit to e5&%oit* That &o%ari,ation has (ontinued in the wa#e o! the e%e(tions as
the !a(tions Do(#e !or &osition in the new 'overnment) "ut the e5tent o! the dama'e done
to the Dihadists throu'h the %oss o! so man (ommanders and o&eratives ma not a%%ow
the su((essors o! a%-Masri and a%-Ba'hdadi to ta#e advanta'e o! the situation "e!ore their
window o! o&&ortunit (%oses*
-e wi%% "e wat(hin' the Dihadists in 1ra@ (are!u%% in the (omin' months to see i!
the (an re'rou& and retain their o&erationa% (a&a"i%it* The "i' @uestion is: -i%% the
re(ent o&erations a'ainst the 1S1PA91 mere% serve as another tem&orar set"a(# %i#e the
#i%%in' o! a%-Jar@awi) or do the &ortend somethin' more %on'-term !or the !uture o! the
or'ani,ation< The 1S1PA91 has &roved to "e resi%ient and resour(e!u% in the &ast) "ut we
are not sure the have the a"i%it to "oun(e "a(# this time*
4a#istan: Faisa% Shah,ad and the 4a#istani Ta%i"an
2ay 10, 2010
+*S* Attorne 2enera% 0ri( ;o%der announ(ed Ma A that the +nited States had
un(overed eviden(e %in#in' the 4a#istani Ta%i"an to Faisa% Shah,ad) the natura%i,ed +*S*
(iti,en o! 4a#istani des(ent who (on!essed to the "ot(hed Ma 8 attem&t to "om" Times
S@uare in /ew Cor# Cit* 2en* 3avid 4etraeus) head o! +*S* Centra% Command) made
essentia%% the o&&osite (ontention Ma B) ar'uin' that Shah,ad a(ted a%one* An %in#
"etween Shah,ad and the 4a#istani Ta%i"an is not as meanin'!u% as it a&&ears) "ut it does
draw attention to the need !or a more so&histi(ated dis(ussion o! the 4a#istani Ta%i"an
&henomenon and the wa in whi(h Shah,ad a&&roa(hed the or'ani,ation*

T,e ase of Fa)sal %,a,<a(
1n the wa#e o! the atta(#) Shah,ad a%%e'ed% has "een %in#ed not on% to the
4a#istani Ta%i"an "ut a%so to Anwar a%-Aw%a#i) the !ormer +*S*-"orn radi(a% imam o! a
mos@ue in a Nir'inian su"ur" o! -ashin'ton) 3*C*) who is now thou'ht to "e in hidin' in
Cemen* A%-Aw%a#i was a%so %in#ed to two o! the Se&t* 88) 6778) hiDa(#ers and +*S* Arm
MaDor /ida% Ma%i# ;asan) who 'unned down 8E at Fort ;ood in /ovem"er 677A*
But even ;asan) who a&&ears to have had (%oser ties to a%-Aw%a#i) a(ted as a %one
wo%! and did not in!orm anone o! his intentions* 1n other words) des&ite some %oose
ideo%o'i(a% a!!init) the (onne(tion &%aed no o&erationa% ro%e in the atta(#) as the o%d
a&e5 %eadershi& o! a% 9aeda &rime did in the Se&t* 88) 6778 atta(#s* -hat made ;asan an
e!!e(tive %one wo%! was not his ideo%o'i(a% (onne(tions) "ut his insider #now%ed'e o! a
'ood %o(ation !or an atta(# at Fort ;ood) his &ro!essiona% and &ersona% &ro!i(ien( with
sma%% arms and an a&&ro&riate tar'et se%e(tion (ommensurate with his s#i%%*
Shah,ad was more o! a =Kramer> Dihadist in the tradition o! Ri(hard Reid ? an
u%timate% ine&t radi(a%i,ed individua% with no o&erationa% understandin' o! "asi(
trade(ra!t) no se%!-awareness o! that %a(# o! s#i%% and am"ition to (arr out an atta(#
utter% "eond his (a&a"i%ities* Shah,ad.s s#i%% set is stri#in'% simi%ar to that o!
/aDi"u%%ah Ja,i or the 2%as'ow 'rou& ? the were a%% !ai%ed "om" ma#ers*
T,e 9:alkBI0/ '),a()s+
A"out the on% thin' Shah,ad "rou'ht to the ta"%e was the &ass&ort o! a
natura%i,ed +*S* (iti,en and a wi%%in'ness to (arr out an atta(# on +*S* soi%* ;owever)
that entai%s more &ro"%ems than o&&ortunities*
A mi%itant 'rou& that +*S* and 4a#istani inte%%i'en(e are a(tive% tar'etin' has to
"e inherent% s#e&ti(a% o! outsiders ? es&e(ia%% i! one shows u& on their doorste& Has
Shah,ad didI with an o!!er that a&&ears to "e too 'ood to "e true* An entit must "a%an(e
o&erationa% se(urit with the a(tive &ursuit o! its 'oa%s and o"De(tives* But the %a(# o!
trade(ra!t that Shah,ad e5hi"ited is on% !urther eviden(e that i! Shah,ad intera(ted with
the 4a#istani Ta%i"an meanin'!u%% ? and there is not et mu(h eviden(e either wa
a"out how !ar he made it u& the (hain o! (ommand durin' his visit T the did not he%&
him attain an meanin'!u% s#i%%s* A%thou'h su"se@uent events mi'ht have shown that the
'rou& ? i! it was "ehind the &%ot ? missed a (han(e to stri#e at the +*S* home%and) the
ensuin' investi'ations and !o(us o! "oth +*S* and 4a#istani inte%%i'en(e e!!orts wi%% on%
ma#e o&erationa% se(urit a%% the more im&ortant and an Shah,ad-%i#e o!!ers a%% the more
di!!i(u%t to trust*
Shah,ad.s (hi%dhood in 4a#istan a!!orded him "oth (u%tura% and !i%ia% (onne(tions
in the (ountr* There are even re&orts that a (hi%dhood !riend was "ehind the 677G atta(#s
in Mum"ai* Chi%dhood has %itt%e "earin' on adu%t o&erationa% (a&a"i%it) thou'h it did
ma#e it easier !or Shah,ad to trave% outside 4eshawar) where he on(e %ived) and ma#e
(onta(ts with innumera"%e individua%s ? some invaria"% with some de'ree o!
(onne(tion to the shadow) amor&hous wor%d o! the 4a#istani Ta%i"an and their %o(a% and
transnationa% a%%ies*
;owever) a natura%i,ed +*S* (iti,en who had s&ent more than a de(ade in the
+nited States ? even one with some histori(a% a(@uaintan(e amon' mi%itants ? is
&ro"%emati(* 1t is ne5t to im&ossi"%e !or a Dihadist 'rou& to have an (on!iden(e in the
trustworthiness o! an individua% who wa%#s in and vo%unteers in a s(enario su(h as this*
The &otentia% !or that individua% to "e a dou"%e a'ent is sim&% too hi'h to meanin'!u%%
(om&romise o&erationa% se(urit ? es&e(ia%% as the +nited States and others are trin'
ver hard to enhan(e their inte%%i'en(e !or unmanned aeria% vehi(%e H+ANI stri#es in the
re'ion* The %a(# o! trade(ra!t in Shah,ad.s devi(e is (om&e%%in' eviden(e that whatever
=(onta(ts> or =trainin'> he mi'ht have re(eived in northern 4a#istan was %ar'e% (on!ined
to &hsi(a% trainin' and wea&ons hand%in') not the !ar more so&histi(ated s#i%% set o!
!ashionin' im&rovised e5&%osive devi(es*
So whoever he did ta%# to in 4a#istan ? and the %ist o! &otentia%s is virtua%%
end%ess !or someone who 'rew u& in the area ? revea%s a%most nothin'* More
in!ormation ma "e(ome avai%a"%e a"out whom he s&o#e with and what was dis(ussed
"ut there is no meanin'!u% (onte5t !or these (onversations* Basi( trade(ra!t and Shah,ad.s
Times S@uare devi(e that ma#e it (%ear that at most) the 4a#istani Ta%i"an sent a %ow-%eve%
re&resentative to s&ea# with him* 1t is un(%ear who &rovided the trainin') "ut it is
reasona"%e to assume that he underwent "asi( 'ueri%%a trainin' (ourses) "ut not advan(ed
"om"-ma#in' (ourses* HJa,i re(eived the "om"-ma#in' trainin' "ut sti%% !ai%ed in his
attem&t to atta(# /ew Cor#.s su"was "e(ause trainin' without e5&erien(e is
insu!!i(ient*I ;owever) the Ma E video o! 4a#istani Ta%i"an %eader ;a#eemu%%ah Mehsud
(%aimin' he had not "een #i%%ed in a 677A +*S* +AN stri#e &ro"a"% 'ave the 'rou& an
a%most irresisti"%e o&&ortunit to (%aim (redit !or the Ma 8 attem&ted atta(# in the
+nited States ? even i! it was an ine&t one ? in order to "o%ster the %ar'er movement.s
standin' Ha%thou'h the 4a#istani Ta%i"an is so !ra(tious and di!!use) it (an hard% "e said
that the (%aim was !rom =the 'rou&>I*
!ak)s+a0) Tal)ba0
The 4a#istani Ta%i"an is an out'rowth o! the A!'han Ta%i"an that 1s%ama"ad
nurtured in the 8AA7s* The radi(a% 1s%amist ideo%o' and mi%itant trainin' that 4a#istan
Ha%on' with the +nited States and Saudi Ara"iaI had (u%tivated in A!'hanistan durin' the
8AG7s war a'ainst the Soviets in order to (onso%idate (ontro% over the (ountr eventua%%
s&i%%ed "a(# a(ross the "order* -ith a re(ent rise in atta(#s a'ainst 4a#istani 'overnment
tar'ets) 1s%ama"ad "e'an to 'ras& the im&%i(ations and (onse@uen(es o! its e5istin'
&o%i(ies* Conse@uent%) in A&ri% 677A) it initiated an un&re(edented (ounterinsur'en(
and (ounterterrorism (am&ai'n in the Federa%% Administered Tri"a% Areas HFATAI* The
Tehri#-i-Ta%i"an 4a#istan HTT4I) the %eadin' 'rou& in the amor&hous and di!!use
&henomenon that is the 4a#istani Ta%i"an Heven thou'h the TT4 itse%! is !ra(tiousI)
(ertain% has had am"itions to atta(# the (ontinenta% +nited States) a su&&orter o! the
re'ime in 1s%ama"ad that it o&&oses*
;owever) it is im&ortant to note that at its stron'est) the TT4 demonstrated the
a"i%it to stri#e at ur"an tar'ets in 4a#istan* 1t has never demonstrated the (a&a"i%it to
stri#e !ar a!ie%d) mu(h %ess on the o&&osite side o! the wor%d* Others) su(h as s&%inter
!a(tions o! Fash#ar-e-Tai"a and ;i,"-u%-Jihad a%-1s%ami) have demonstrated that
(a&a"i%it re(ent%) "ut not the TT4* So whi%e it has the intent) it has never had the
(a&a"i%it to (arr out an atta(# at that distan(e* The (%osest it has (ome to an
internationa% atta(# is the sui(ide "om"in' on the C1A !a(i%it in eastern A!'hanistan
a(ross the "order !rom the FATA) whi(h !or a%% intents and &ur&oses shou%d "e (onsidered
a %o(a% o&eration 'iven the (%ose &ro5imit and &orous nature o! the "order* 1n that
instan(e) the 'rou& 'ot %u(# in that the "om"er had inde&endent a((ess to a'en(
o!!i(ia%s* And the on'oin' (am&ai'n in FATA is on% !urther &ressurin' the 4a#istani
Ta%i"an* Fa(in' "oth the 4a#istani mi%itar and Ameri(an +AN stri#es) the 'rou& has seen
its o&erationa% rea(h within 4a#istan severe% (onstrained* The idea that the 'rou& has
su!!i(ient (a&a(it to &%ot and su&&ort a stri#e on the (ontinenta% +nited States is
in(reasin'% !ar-!et(hed) des&ite its desire to do so* 1n an event) Shah,ad.s a(tions were
not on% (arried out ine&t% " an untrained individua%) "ut have no eviden(e o!
meanin'!u% outside su&&ort*
So whi%e there are %in#s that shou%d not "e underestimated) the "ot(hed Times
S@uare "om"in' is mere% the %atest in a now we%%-esta"%ished trend o! ='rassroots> and
=Kramer> Dihadists* The a"so%ute% &ose a dan'er ? and an on'oin' one at that ? "ut
the must not "e mista#en !or the (oherent) transnationa% &henomenon o! a% 9aeda 6*7*
1ndonesia: 3ismant%in' Another Mi%itant Ce%%
2ay 10, 2010
1ndonesian s&e(ia% (ounterterrorism !or(es (arried out a raid in Centra% Java and
arrested three sus&e(ted mi%itants Ma 8E* Authorities have not made a statement a"out
the raid) "ut it %i#e% is (onne(ted to a series o! 85 or more raids that "e'an at a (am&
o&erated " a new Dihadist or'ani,ation) Tan,im A%-9aeda Seram"i Me##ah) a%so (a%%ed
a% 9aeda in A(eh HA9AI*
Be(ause the 'rou& has %in#s to maDor !i'ures !rom the mi%itant 'rou& Jemaah
1s%amiah HJ1I) A9A a&&ears to "e a s&%inter 'rou& !ormed " !ormer J1 o&eratives to re-
esta"%ish their &resen(e in 1ndonesia* ;owever) 1ndonesia is a (ountr where Dihadist
'rou&s have never 'ained a si'ni!i(ant !o%%owin' and where se(urit !or(es (onsistent%
(a&ture or #i%% mi%itants*
1ndonesian se(urit !or(es %ed " the /ationa% 4o%i(e (ounterterrorism unit
S&e(ia% 3eta(hment GG have (ondu(ted a series o! raids tar'etin' sus&e(ted mi%itants
throu'hout the (ountr) main% in northern Sumatra and near Ja#arta) sin(e Fe"* 66* The
Fe"* 66 raid on an A9A (am& near Banda A(eh &rovided a wea%th o! inte%%i'en(e that %ed
to more raids on asso(iated mi%itants* O! these raids ? man o! whi(h resu%ted in
!ire!i'hts ? the most nota"%e o((urred Mar(h A in 4amu%an') when 3u%matin) a maDor
1ndonesian Dihadist %eader) was #i%%ed* 3u%matin and his asso(iate +mar 4ate# Hwho is
sti%% "ein' huntedI were "oth invo%ved in the 6776 Ba%i ni'ht(%u" "om"in's asso(iated
with J1* The other raids have most% o((urred a(ross the northern &art o! the is%and o!
Sumatra) where A(eh is %o(ated) "ut some have tar'eted %o(ations in the Ja#arta su"ur"s)
the usua% area o! o&erations !or Jemaah 1s%amiah-%in#ed mi%itants*
J1 has "een divided sin(e 677E) with !a(tions disa'reein' over the use o! vio%en(e*
The 'rou& !a(ed a &o%i(e (ra(#down as some o! its %eaders !%ed the (ountr and (reated
their own s&%inter 'rou&s* 3u%matin) an e5&ert "om" ma#er) %e!t !or the 4hi%i&&ine is%and
o! Mindanao and trained mi%itant 'rou&s there) whi%e another %eader) /oordin To&)
!ormed Tan,im 9aedat a%-Jihad !rom Ma%asia* 1t is not (%ear i! 3u%matin was dire(t%
asso(iated with To&.s 'rou&) "ut the were at the ver %east !ormer asso(iates and
de!inite% a'reed on usin' vio%en(e as a ta(ti(*
4o%i(e &ressure on these 'rou&s !o%%owed a series o! "om"in's "etween 677E and
6775* An inte%%i'en(e "rea# ? &ossi"% the resu%t o! the 677A hote% "om"in's ? resu%ted
in To&.s death in Se&tem"er 677A* That "e'an a roundu& o! asso(iated mi%itant
o&eratives* 1nte%%i'en(e !rom the To& #i%%in' (ou%d ver we%% have %ed to the A9A (am& in
A(eh) whi(h in turn %ed to the raid in whi(h 3u%matin was #i%%ed*
Tito Karnavian) 1ndonesia.s anti-terrorism &o%i(e (hie!) (%aims 3u%matin is
res&onsi"%e !or the new s&%inter 'rou& in A(eh* A9A ? whose !u%% name means
=Or'ani,ation o! a% 9aeda at the -indow to Me((a)> sin(e A(eh was the !irst &art o!
1ndonesia to (onvert to 1s%am ? "e'an ma#in' &osts on%ine (%aimin' su((ess in !ire!i'hts
a'ainst se(urit !or(es and sain' that the wou%d (ontinue to !i'ht* The 1nternationa%
Crisis 2rou& s&e(u%ated ear% on that A9A (ou%d have %in#ed u& with remnants o! the
Free A(eh Movement H2AMI* But now that 2AM has a &o%iti(a% sta#e in A(eh ? it was
'iven (ontro% o! the territor.s 'overnment a!ter a 6775 &ea(e a'reement ? it wou%d have
%itt%e in(entive to "e invo%ved in mi%itant atta(#s* On Mar(h A) the A(eh 'overnor went as
!ar as to (a%% the new 'rou& ='ar"a'e sent !rom Java*> H0ar%ier Dihadist 'rou&s o&erated on
the is%and o! Java rather than Sumatra*I
The devastation (aused " the tsunami in 677: and a (han'e o! 'overnment
(reated the #ind o! insta"i%it in 1ndonesia that 'ave mi%itants a sa!e haven !or o&erations*
These mi%itant 'rou&s have "een a"%e to re(ruit and train enou'h mem"ers in 1ndonesia to
(arr out maDor atta(#s) "ut the have never "een a"%e to %aun(h a "roader movement*
Ja#arta.s a''ressive &o%i(in') %i#e% "ased on inte%%i'en(e !inds) has #e&t mi%itant 'rou&s
hunted and on the run and &revented Dihadist 'rou&s !rom deve%o&in' si'ni!i(ant
!o%%owin's* Furthermore) as ea(h new %eader is (a&tured or #i%%ed) mi%itant 'rou&s %ose
e5&erien(e needed !or o&erationa% (a&a"i%it and (harisma needed !or re(ruitment) and
thus are rendered %ess e!!e(tive*
From Fai%ed Bom"in's to Armed Jihadist Assau%ts
2ay 27, 2010
One o! the thin's we %i#e to do in our 2%o"a% Se(urit and 1nte%%i'en(e Re&ort
!rom time to time is e5amine the (onver'en(e o! a num"er o! se&arate and unre%ated
deve%o&ments and then ana%,e that (onver'en(e and (ra!t a !ore(ast* 1n re(ent months
we have seen su(h a (onver'en(e o((ur*
The most re(ent deve%o&ment is the interview with the Ameri(an-"orn Cemeni
(%eri( Anwar a%-Aw%a#i that was re%eased to Dihadist 1nternet (hat rooms Ma 6E " a%-
Ma%ahim Media) the &u"%i( re%ations arm o! a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I*
1n the interview) a%-Aw%a#i en(oura'ed stri#es a'ainst Ameri(an (ivi%ians* ;e a%so has
"een tied to MaD* /ida% ;asan) who was (har'ed in the /ovem"er 677A Fort ;ood
shootin') and +mar Farou# A"du%muta%%a") the &er&etrator o! the !ai%ed Christmas 3a
677A air%ine "om"in'* And a%-Aw%a#i re&orted% he%&ed ins&ire Faisa% Shah,ad) who was
arrested in (onne(tion with the attem&ted Times S@uare atta(# in Ma*
The se(ond %in# in our (hain is the !ai%ed Christmas 3a and Times S@uare
"om"in's themse%ves* The are the %atest in a %on' strin' o! !ai%ed or !oi%ed "om"in'
atta(#s dire(ted a'ainst the +nited States that date "a(# to "e!ore the AP88 atta(#s and
in(%ude the thwarted 8AAB sui(ide "om" &%ot a'ainst a su"wa in /ew Cor#) the thwarted
3e(em"er 8AAA Mi%%ennium Bom" &%ot and numerous &ost-AP88 atta(#s su(h as Ri(hard
Reid.s 3e(em"er 6778 shoe-"om" attem&t) the Au'ust 677: &%ot to "om" the /ew Cor#
su"wa sstem and the Ma 677A &%ot to "om" two Jewish tar'ets in the Bron5 and shoot
down a mi%itar air(ra!t* 1ndeed) Dihadists have not (ondu(ted a su((ess!u% "om"in'
atta(# inside the +nited States sin(e the 8AAE -or%d Trade Center "om"in'* 2ettin' a
trained "om"ma#er into the +nited States has &roved to "e in(reasin'% di!!i(u%t !or
Dihadist 'rou&s) and trainin' a novi(e to ma#e "om"s has a%so "een &ro"%emati( as seen in
the Shah,ad and /aDi"u%%ah Ja,i (ases*
The !ina% %in# we.d %i#e to (onsider are the (a%%s in the &ast !ew months !or
Dihadists to (ondu(t sim&%e atta(#s with readi% avai%a"%e items* This (a%% was !irst made
" A9A4 %eader /asir a%--ahashi in O(to"er 677A and then e(hoed " a% 9aeda &rime
s&o#esman Adam 2adahn in Mar(h o! 6787* 1n the Times S@uare (ase) Shah,ad did use
readi% avai%a"%e items) "ut he %a(#ed the a"i%it to e!!e(tive% !ashion them into a via"%e
e5&%osive devi(e*
-hen we %oo# at a%% these %in#s to'ether) there is a ver hi'h &ro"a"i%it that
Dihadists %in#ed to) or ins&ired ") A9A4 and the Tehri#-i-Ta%i"an 4a#istan HTT4I ? and
&erha&s even a% Sha"aa" ? wi%% attem&t to (ondu(t sim&%e atta(#s with !irearms in the
near !uture*
T,rea+s a0( 1o+)ves
1n the Ma 6E a%-Ma%ahim interview Hhis !irst with A9A4I) a%-Aw%a#i not on%
said he was &roud o! the a(tions o! ;asan and A"du%muta%%a") whom he re!erred to as his
students) "ut a%so en(oura'ed other Mus%ims to !o%%ow the e5am&%es the set " their
a(tions* -hen as#ed a"out the re%i'ious &ermissi"i%it o! an o&eration %i#e
A"du%muta%%a".s) whi(h (ou%d have #i%%ed inno(ent (ivi%ians) a%-Aw%a#i to%d the
interviewer that the term =(ivi%ian> was not rea%% a&&%i(a"%e to 1s%ami( Duris&ruden(e and
that he &re!erred to use the terms (om"atants and non-(om"atants* ;e then (ontinued "
notin' that =non-(om"atants are &eo&%e who do not ta#e &art in the war> "ut that) in his
o&inion) =the Ameri(an &eo&%e in its entiret ta#es &art in the war) "e(ause the e%e(ted
this administration) and the !inan(e this war*> 1n his !ina% assessment) a%-Aw%a#i said) =1!
the heroi( muDahid "rother +mar Farou# (ou%d have tar'eted hundreds o! so%diers) that
wou%d have "een wonder!u%* But we are ta%#in' a"out the rea%ities o! war)> meanin' that
in his !ina% ana%sis) atta(#s a'ainst (ivi%ians were &ermissi"%e under 1s%ami( %aw* 1ndeed)
he %ater noted) =Our unsett%ed a((ount with Ameri(a) in women and (hi%dren a%one) has
e5(eeded one mi%%ion* Those who wou%d have "een #i%%ed in the &%ane are a dro& in the
o(ean*>
-hi%e this %ine o! %o'i( is near% identi(a% to that histori(a%% &ut !orth " Osama
"in Faden and Aman a%-Jawahiri) the ver si'ni!i(ant di!!eren(e is that a%-Aw%a#i is a
wide% a(#now%ed'ed 1s%ami( s(ho%ar* ;e s&ea#s with a re%i'ious authorit that "in Faden
and a%-Jawahiri sim&% do not &ossess*
On Ma 6) the TT4 re%eased a video statement " ;a#eemu%%ah Mehsud in whi(h
Mehsud (%aimed (redit !or the !ai%ed Times S@uare atta(#* 1n the re(ordin') whi(h
re&orted% was ta&ed in ear% A&ri%) Mehsud said that the time was a&&roa(hin' =when
our !edaeen [sui(ide o&eratives$ wi%% atta(# the Ameri(an states in their maDor (ities*> ;e
a%so said) =Our !edaeen have &enetrated the terrorist Ameri(a* -e wi%% 'ive e5treme%
&ain!u% "%ows to the !anati( Ameri(a*>
-hi%e TT4 %eaders seem wont to "ra' and e5a''erate He*'*) Baitu%%ah Mehsud
!a%se% (%aimed (redit !or the A&ri% E) 677A) shootin' at an immi'ration (enter in
Bin'hamton) /*C*) whi(h was a(tua%% (ommitted " a menta%% distur"ed Nietnamese
immi'rantI) there is am&%e reason to "e%ieve the (%aims made " the TT4 re'ardin' their
(onta(t with Shah,ad* -e (an a%so dedu(e with some (ertaint that Mehsud and (om&an
have trained other men who have trave%ed Hor returnedI to the +nited States !o%%owin'
that trainin'* The same is %i#e% true !or A9A4) a% Sha"aa" and other Dihadist 'rou&s* 1n
!a(t) the FB1 is %i#e% monitorin' man su(h individua%s inside the +nited States at this
ver moment ? and in a%% %i#e%ihood is mad% s(ram"%in' to !ind and investi'ate man
others*
F)5,+ L)ke Aou Tra)0
There is an o%d mi%itar and %aw-en!or(ement trainin' a5iom that states) =Cou wi%%
!i'ht %i#e ou train*> This (on(e&t has %ed to the deve%o&ment o! trainin' &ro'rams
desi'ned to he%& so%diers and a'ents not on% %earn s#i%%s "ut a%so &ra(ti(e and rein!or(e
those s#i%%s unti% the "e(ome se(ond nature* This wa) when the student 'raduates and
(omes under in(redi"%e &ressure in the rea% wor%d ? %i#e durin' an armed am"ush ?
their trainin' wi%% ta#e over and the wi%% rea(t even "e!ore their mind (an (at(h u& to the
ra&id% un!o%din' situation* The "ehaviors needed to survive have "een in'rained into
them* This (on(e&t has "een a &ro"%em !or the Dihadists when it (omes to terrorist atta(#s*
1t is im&ortant to understand that most o! the thousands o! men who attend
trainin' (am&s set u& " a% 9aeda and other Dihadist 'rou&s are tau'ht the "asi( mi%itar
s#i%%s re@uired to !i'ht in an insur'en(* This means the are &rovided "asi( &hsi(a%
trainin' to he%& (ondition them) 'iven some hand-to-hand (om"at trainin' and then
tau'ht how to o&erate "asi( mi%itar hardware %i#e assau%t ri!%es) hand 'renades and) in
some (ases) (rew-served wea&ons %i#e ma(hine 'uns and mortars* On% a ver !ew
students are then se%e(ted to attend the more advan(ed trainin' that wi%% tea(h them the
s#i%%s re@uired to "e(ome a trained terrorist o&erative*
1n man was) this &ro(ess &ara%%e%s the wa that s&e(ia% o&erations !or(es
o&erators are se%e(ted !rom the %ar'er mi%itar &o&u%ation and then sent on !or e5tensive
trainin' to trans!orm them into e%ite warriors* Man &eo&%e wash out durin' this t&e o!
intense trainin' and on% a !ew wi%% ma#e it a%% the wa throu'h to 'raduation* The
&ro"%em !or the Dihadists is !indin' someone with the time and wi%% to under'o the
intensive trainin' re@uired to "e(ome a terrorist o&erative) the a"i%it to (om&%ete the
trainin' and ? (riti(a%% ? the a"i%it to trave% a"road to (ondu(t terrorist atta(#s a'ainst
the !ar enem* C%ear% the Dihadist 'rou&s are a"%e to train men to !i'ht as insur'ents in
A!'hanistan and 1ra@) and the have shown the a"i%it to train terrorist o&eratives who
(an o&erate in the !air% &ermissive environments o! &%a(es %i#e the A!'hanistan-4a#istan
"order area* The a%so have some e5(e%%ent "om"ma#ers and terrorist &%anners in 1ra@
and 4a#istan*
-hat the Dihadists seem to "e havin' a &ro"%em doin' is !indin' &eo&%e who (an
master the terrorist trade(ra!t and who have the a"i%it to trave% into hosti%e areas to &%
their (ra!t* There seems to "e a (%ear division "etween the men who (an trave% and the
men who (an master the advan(ed trainin'* The &hsi(a% and inte%%i'en(e ons%au'ht
%aun(hed a'ainst a% 9aeda and other Dihadist 'rou&s !o%%owin' the AP88 atta(#s has a%so
(reated o&erationa% se(urit (on(erns that (om&%i(ate the a"i%it to !ind and train e!!e(tive
terrorist o&eratives*
O! (ourse) we.re not te%%in' the Dihadists anthin' the don.t a%read #now* This
&henomenon is e5a(t% wh ou have maDor Dihadist !i'ures %i#e a%--ahashi and 2adahn
te%%in' the o&eratives who (an trave% to or are a%read in the -est to sto& trin' to
(ondu(t atta(#s that are "eond their (a&a"i%ities* 2adahn and a%-Aw%a#i have hea&ed
&raise on MaD* ;asan as an e5am&%e to !o%%ow ? and this "rin's us "a(# to armed
assau%ts*
1n the +nited States it is ver eas to o"tain !irearms and it is %e'a% to 'o to a
ran'e or &rivate &ro&ert to train with them* Armed assau%ts are a%so (%ear% within the
s#i%% set o! Dihadists who have made it on% throu'h "asi( insur'ent trainin'* As we.ve
mentioned severa% times in the &ast) these 'rassroots individua%s are !ar more %i#e% to
stri#e the +nited States and 0uro&e than &ro!essiona% terrorist o&eratives dis&at(hed !rom
the a% 9aeda (ore 'rou&* Su(h atta(#s wi%% a%so a%%ow these 'rassroots o&eratives to !i'ht
%i#e the have "een trained* -hen ou (om"ine a%% these e%ements with the !a(t that the
+nited States is an o&en so(iet with a %ot o! ver vu%nera"%e so!t tar'ets) it is not di!!i(u%t
to !ore(ast that we wi%% see more armed Dihadist assau%ts in the +nited States in the near
!uture*
Ar.e( Assaul+s
Armed assau%ts em&%oin' sma%% arms are not a new (on(e&t in terrorism " an
means* The have &roved to "e a tried-and-true ta(ti( sin(e the "e'innin' o! the modern
era o! terrorism and have "een em&%oed in man !amous atta(#s (ondu(ted " a variet
o! a(tors* A !ew e5am&%es are the B%a(# Se&tem"er o&eration a'ainst the 1srae%i ath%etes
at the 8AB6 Muni(h O%m&i(sK the 3e(em"er 8AB5 sei,ure o! the Or'ani,ation o! the
4etro%eum 05&ortin' Countries head@uarters in Nienna) %ed " 1%i(h Ramire, San(he,)
a#a =Car%os the Ja(#a%>K the 3e(em"er 8AG5 simu%taneous atta(#s a'ainst the air&orts in
Rome and Nienna " the A"u /ida% Or'ani,ationK and the Se&tem"er 677: s(hoo% sei,ure
in Bes%an) /orth Ossetia) " Che(hen mi%itants* More re(ent%) the /ovem"er 677G
armed assau%t in Mum"ai demonstrated how dead% and s&e(ta(u%ar su(h atta(#s (an "e*
1n some instan(es ? su(h as the 3e(em"er 8AA6 sei,ure o! the Ja&anese
am"assador.s residen(e in Fima) 4eru) " the Tu&a( Amaru Revo%utionar Movement ?
the o"De(tive o! the armed assau%t is to ta#e and intentiona%% ho%d hosta'es !or a %on'
&eriod o! time* 1n other instan(es) su(h as the Ma 8AB6 assau%t on Fod Air&ort "
mem"ers o! the Ja&anese Red Arm) the armed assau%t is &%anned as a sui(ide atta(#
desi'ned sim&% to #i%% as man &eo&%e as &ossi"%e "e!ore the assai%ants themse%ves are
#i%%ed or in(a&a(itated* O!ten atta(#s !a%% somewhere in the midd%e* For e5am&%e) even
thou'h Mum"ai "e(ame a &rotra(ted o&eration) its &%annin' and e5e(ution indi(ated it
was intended as an atta(# in whi(h the atta(#ers wou%d in!%i(t ma5imum dama'e and not
"e ta#en a%ive* 1t was on% due to the 'ood !ortune o! the atta(#ers and the ine&titude o!
the 1ndian se(urit !or(es that the o&eration %asted as %on' as it did*
-e dis(ussed a"ove the %on' strin' o! !ai%ed and !oi%ed "om"in' atta(#s dire(ted
a'ainst the +nited States* 3urin' that same time) there have "een severa% armed assau%ts
that have #i%%ed &eo&%e) su(h as the atta(# a'ainst the 0% A% ti(#et (ounter at the Fos
An'e%es 1nternationa% Air&ort " ;esham Mohamed ;adaet in Ju% 6776) the shootin'
atta(#s " John Muhammed and Fee Bod Ma%vo in the -ashin'ton area in Se&tem"er
and O(to"er 6776 and the June 677A atta(# in whi(h A"du%ha#im MuDahid Muhammad
a%%e'ed% shot and #i%%ed a +*S* so%dier and wounded another outside a Fitt%e Ro(#) Ar#*)
re(ruitin' (enter* The most su((ess!u% o! these atta(#s was the /ovem"er 677A Fort ;ood
shootin') whi(h resu%ted in 8E deaths* These atta(#s not on% resu%ted in deaths "ut a%so
re(eived e5tensive media (overa'e*
Armed assau%ts are e!!e(tive and the (an #i%% &eo&%e* ;owever) as we have noted
"e!ore) due to the &ro!i(ien( o! +*S* &o%i(e a'en(ies and the trainin' their o!!i(ers have
re(eived in a(tive shooter s(enarios !o%%owin' s(hoo% shootin's and in(idents o!
wor#&%a(e vio%en(e) the im&a(t o! armed assau%ts wi%% "e miti'ated in the +nited States)
and 0uro&e as we%%* 1n !a(t) it was an ordinar &o%i(e o!!i(er res&ondin' to the s(ene and
institutin' an a(tive shooter &roto(o% who shot and wounded MaD* ;asan and "rou'ht an
end to his atta(# in the So%dier Readiness Center at Fort ;ood* The num"er o! &eo&%e in
the Ameri(an &u"%i( who are armed (an a%so serve as a miti'atin' !a(tor) thou'h man
&ast atta(#s have "een &%anned at %o(ations where &ersona% wea&ons are &rohi"ited) %i#e
the Fos An'e%es 1nternationa% Air&ort) Fort ;ood and Fort 3i5*
O! (ourse) a Mum"ai-%i#e situation invo%vin' mu%ti&%e trained shooters who (an
o&erate %i#e a !ire team wi%% (ause &ro"%ems !or !irst res&onders) "ut the &o%i(e
(ommuni(ation sstem in the +nited States and the avai%a"i%it o! trained S-AT teams
wi%% a%%ow authorities to @ui(#% ve(tor in su!!i(ient resour(es to hand%e the threat in most
%o(ations ? es&e(ia%% where su(h %ar'e (oordinated atta(#s are most %i#e% to ha&&en)
su(h as /ew Cor#) -ashin'ton and Fos An'e%es* There!ore) even a maDor assau%t in the
+nited States is un%i#e% to dra' out !or das as did the in(ident in Mum"ai*
/one o! this is to sa that the threats &osed " sui(ide "om"ers a'ainst mass
transit and air(ra!t wi%% a"ru&t% end* The Dihadists have &roven re&eated% that the have
a !i5ation on "oth o! these tar'et sets and the wi%% undou"ted% (ontinue their attem&ts to
atta(# them* Far'e "om"in's and air%ine atta(#s a%so (arr with them a sense o! drama
that a shootin' does not ? es&e(ia%% in a (ountr that has "e(ome somewhat a((ustomed
to shootin' in(idents (ondu(ted " non-terrorist a(tors !or other reasons* ;owever) we
"e%ieve we.re seein' a si'ni!i(ant shi!t in the mindset o! Dihadist ideo%o'ues and that this
shi!t wi%% trans%ate into a 'rowin' trend toward armed assau%ts*
Cemen: A /ew a% 9aeda Nideo
2ay 27, 2010
A%-Ma%ahim) the media "ran(h o! a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I ?
the Cemen-"ased re'iona% node o! a% 9aeda ? re%eased a new video Ma 66 a%on'side
the 8Eth edition o! its &u"%i(ation) 0(ho o! Batt%e* 0ntit%ed =Ameri(a) The Fast Tra&)> the
video in(%udes a %en'th statement !rom A9A4 mi%itar (ommander 9asim a%-Rami*
The we%%-&rodu(ed) a&&ro5imate% one-hour video in(%udes !ami%iar !a(es a%on' with %ess
#nown individua%s*
One su(h new(omer) Fahd a%-9uso ? wanted in (onne(ted with the 6777
"om"in' o! the +SS Co%e ? threatened atta(#s a'ainst the (ontinenta% +nited States) its
em"ass in Cemen and warshi&s in the surroundin' waters* This is the !irst une@uivo(a%
eviden(e o! %in#s "etween A9A4 and the wanted mi%itant) thou'h his e5a(t (onne(tion
with the 'rou& is un(%ear* The im&risoned mi%itant +mar Farou# A"du%muta%%a") who
attem&ted to destro a +*S* air%iner on Christmas 3a 677A) a&&eared in a (%i& s&ea#in'
a"out Dihad and the -est and trainin' in the Cemeni desert*
The video a%so eu%o'i,ed Muhammad +mar a%-Aw%a@i) we%%-#nown !or an
a&&earan(e on A% Ja,eera threatenin' the +nited States in !ront o! a %ar'e (rowd) who
died in a 3e(em"er 677A airstri#e a'ainst his hideout in A"an* 1t a%so (on!irmed the
deaths o! A"da%%ah a%-Mihdar) head o! A9A4 in the Sha"wah 'overnorate) who died in
(%ashes with se(urit !or(es in Januar) and the A!'han veteran Mohammad Sa%eh a%-
Ka,imi) who a%so died in the 677A A"an stri#e and whose (or&se was shown on the
video*
A&&earin' !or the !irst time was !ormer 2uantanamo Ba inmate /o* 8G: and
(urrent /o* G5 on the Saudi most-wanted %ist) Othman Ahmad Othman a%-2hamdi* The
E8-ear-o%d Saudi-"orn mi%itant !ou'ht in A!'hanistan) where (oa%ition authorities
arrested him in A&ri% 6776* A!ter !our ears at 2uantanamo) a%-2hamdi was sent "a(# to
his home%and where he eventua%% enro%%ed in) and 'raduated !rom) Saudi Ara"ia.s
reha"i%itation &ro'ram* Short% a!ter his re%ease) he trave%ed to Cemen) where he Doined
A9A4* The video revea%ed him as a new A9A4 %eader* Thou'h his e5a(t ro%e remains
un#nown) he ma have re&%a(ed a senior !i'ure #i%%ed in re(ent stri#es*
A%-2hamdi.s new!ound ro%e raises some interestin' @uestions a"out A9A4.s
%eadershi&* For instan(e) numerous rumors have re!eren(ed the msterious a"sen(e and
&ossi"%e death o! the 'rou&.s %eader) /asir a%--ahashi* An unveri!ied audio messa'e
&ur&orted% !rom a%--ahashi was distri"uted to DihadistPe5tremist we"sites Ma 86 in
whi(h he &raised Anwar a%-Aw%a#i and threatened re&risa%s i! the +*S*-"orn (%eri( is
#i%%ed* The a"sen(e o! ima'es o! a%--ahashi su''est he is either in hidin' or was in !a(t
#i%%ed) thou'h sour(es in Cemen (%aim he remains a%ive* 1n an (ase) even thou'h
Cemen.s o&erations a'ainst A9A4 (ontinue) the 'rou& remains a (redi"%e threat to
se(urit in Cemen and &erha&s "eond*
Soma%ia: A% Sha"aa" as a Transnationa% Threat
6une 2, 2010
Omar ;ammami) an Ameri(an-"orn (ommander o! the Soma%i Dihadist 'rou& a%
Sha"aa") was !eatured in a &ro&a'anda video re%eased Ma 88 (a%%in' !or Dihadists to
s&read the "att%e around the wor%d and s&e(i!i(a%% to ="rin' Ameri(a to her #nees*> Then
on Ma 6B) the +*S* 3e&artment o! ;ome%and Se(urit issued a terrorism threat a%ertin'
%o(a% authorities to "e on the %oo#out !or Mohammad A%i) a sus&e(ted a% Sha"aa" mem"er
a%%e'ed% attem&tin' to (ross the +*S*-Me5i(an "order* Fina%%) on Ma E7 an
Aerome5i(o !%i'ht !rom 4aris to Me5i(o Cit was !or(ed to %and in Montrea% "e(ause a
man on "oard) A"dirahman A%i 2aa%%) was on the +*S* no-!% %ist* Few other detai%s are
avai%a"%e at this time) "ut it a&&ears so !ar that 2aa%% had (onne(tions to a% Sha"aa"* This
(on!%uen(e o! events has attra(ted STRATFOR.s attention to the Soma%i Dihadist 'rou&*
-hi%e a% Sha"aa" remains !o(used on Soma%ia) it (ou%d &ose more o! a transnationa%
threat) ins&irin' =%one wo%!> and 'rassroots Dihadists to hit "a(# at the -est*
1n 677G) as !orei'n Dihadists "e'an their !%i'ht !rom 1ra@) STRATFOR wrote that
a% Sha"aa" =had an o&&ortunit to trans!orm Soma%ia into a (entra% Dihadist theater*
2rowin' its ran#s with !orei'n !i'hters and enDoin' the in(reasin' su&&ort o! a% 9aeda
sm&athi,ers) the Soma%i mi%itants (ou%d rea(h the ti&&in' &oint in their insur'en(
a'ainst the Transitiona% Federa% 2overnment HTF2I in Mo'adishu*>
Two ears %ater) a% Sha"aa" is &uttin' u& a (onsistent !i'ht a'ainst -estern-
"a(#ed !or(es in (entra% and southern Soma%ia) ma#in' si'ni!i(ant 'ains in southern
Soma%ia and even (ontro%%in' %ar'e &ortions o! Mo'adishu) "ut it has "een una"%e to
(om&%ete% de!eat the TF2* The TF2) a%on' with A!ri(an +nion HA+I &ea(e#ee&in'
!or(es and an arra o! a%%ied mi%itias) is mana'in' to ho%d onto the most strate'i( &arts o!
Mo'adishu) name% the sea&ort* The +nited States is &rovidin' the TF2 with arms)
trainin' and assistan(e in an e!!ort to #ee& a% Sha"aa" at "a*
The +nited States has &ursued a strate' o! !i'htin' other re'iona% a% 9aeda nodes
that &ose a threat to the +nited States) su(h as in Cemen and A%'eria) " su&&ortin' the
%o(a% 'overnment !or(es with inte%%i'en(e) trainin' and su&&%ies Hwith the o((asiona%
overt use o! +*S* s&e(ia% o&erations !or(es or air &ower to hit s&e(i!i( hi'h-va%ue tar'etsI*
+*S* !or(es tar'et senior a% Sha"aa" (ommanders with ties to a% 9aeda) whi%e %ower-
ran#in' a% Sha"aa" !i'hters are %e!t !or %o(a% !or(es* These %o(a% !or(es are re%ied on as
mu(h as &ossi"%e to avoid %ar'e mo"i%i,ations o! +*S* troo&s*
This strate' has %ar'e% wor#ed in areas %i#e 1ndonesia and A%'eria) where the
'overnments H!or the most &artI (ontro% the territor and (an (ommand a (om&etent
se(urit !or(e to (om"at the mi%itants* ;owever) in Soma%ia) the TF2 is stru''%in' Dust to
survive and (annot !i'ht a serious (ounterterrorism (am&ai'n "e(ause it does not (ontro%
%ar'e swathes o! Soma%i territor* The TF2 %a(#s a su!!i(ient% si,ed and (a&a"%e mi%itar
!or(e o! its own) &%us it is wra(#ed " &o%iti(a% in!i'htin' that %imits its a"i%it to 'o on
the o!!ensive a'ainst a% Sha"aa"* 0thio&ia withdrew its troo&s !rom Soma%ia in ear%
677A* The +nited States sti%% re%ies on 0thio&ia.s su&&ort !or the Soma%i 1s%amist mi%itia
and TF2 a%% Ah%u Sunnah -a%Damaah) and 0thio&ian mi%itar o&erations meant to #ee&
Dihadists !rom s&readin' into 0thio&ia* ;owever) the TF2.s in(oheren(e %imits the +nited
States. a"i%it to &ursue its usua% strate' o! re%in' on the %o(a% 'overnment.s
(ounterterrorism o&erations to (ontain a mi%itant 'rou&*
This he%&s a% Sha"aa"* As %on' as the +nited States is wi%%in' to maintain the
(urrent %eve% o! deterren(e) a% Sha"aa" wi%% maintain its (a&a"i%it o! %on'-term surviva%*
1! -ashin'ton does not view a% Sha"aa" as a dire(t and imminent threat to +*S* se(urit)
the +*S* res&onse to a% Sha"aa" wi%% "e %imited* Stri#in' at the +nited States Hor
anwhere outside Soma%iaI wou%d raise a% Sha"aa".s &ro!i%e dramati(a%%) ris#in'
in(reased +*S* invo%vement* There!ore) STRATFOR does not e5&e(t the 'rou&.s (ore
%eaders to ado&t a transnationa% strate' antime soon*
;owever) there e5ists in Soma%ia a tradition o! vio%ent and anti--estern Dihadist
ideo%o'* 1ndeed) those res&onsi"%e !or the Au'ust 8AAG "om"in's o! the +*S* em"assies
in /airo"i) Kena) and 3ar es Sa%aam) Tan,ania) whi%e not (onne(ted to a% Sha"aa") did
have (onne(tions to Soma%ia* Furthermore) as e5&e(ted) !orei'n Dihadists have moved to
Soma%ia !rom other theaters su(h as 1ra@) the Cau(asus and 4a#istan as we%% as -estern
(ountries %i#e the +nited States and Canada) "rin'in' with them a "roader Dihadist
mindset* These !orei'ners (an "asi(a%% "e divided into two 'rou&s: trained and
e5&erien(ed mi%itants %oo#in' !or a !i'ht) and ine5&erien(ed ideo%o'ues earnin' to 'et
into one* STRATFOR sour(es sa that a% Sha"aa" has a !ew hundred !orei'n !i'hters ?
amon' them man ine5&erien(ed ideo%o'ues ? "ut on% a (ou&%e o! do,en more
e5&erien(ed !orei'n (ommanders* HA% Sha"aa" has an estimated overa%% !or(e o! around
:)777 !i'hters ? "oth !orei'n and %o(a% ? de&%oed in 'rou&s in southern and (entra%
Soma%ia and in Mo'adishu*I
;ammami ? who !i'hts under the nom de 'uerre A"u Mansour a%-Amri#i ?
e5em&%i!ies the !orei'n "orn (ommander with as&irations "eond Soma%ia* 1n his video)
he e5horted Dihadists wor%dwide to s&read the !i'ht =!rom S&ain to China> and to ="rin'
Ameri(a to her #nees)> sain' the =!irst sto&> is Addis A"a"a) 0thio&ia.s (a&ita%* These
!orei'n) more Dihadist-ins&ired !i'hters are (rowdin' out the more nationa%ist-oriented
and 1s%amist !i'hters %i#e the s&%intered ;i,"u% 1s%am) whose !o(us was &rimari% on
winnin' Soma%ia* A% Sha"aa" a%so e5hi"ited an interest in !orei'n tar'ets when it issued
threats a'ainst +'anda and Burundi in O(to"er 677A* /ei'h"orin' Kena (onstant%
re(eives threats) and a% Sha"aa" has "een named as a &otentia% threat to the u&(omin'
-or%d Cu& in South A!ri(a*
The devo%ution o! a% 9aeda has meant that the (ore 'rou& o! Dihadists who
(ondu(ted the AP88 atta(# does not have the same mi%itant (a&a"i%it as "e!ore* ;owever)
the a% 9aeda !ran(hises in Soma%ia) A%'eria and the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a &ossess a 'rowin'
mi%itant (a&a"i%it) and the more &u"%i(it the 'et the more re(ruits the (an attra(t ?
and the more &eo&%e the (an ins&ire to (arr the !i'ht "eond the re'ion* Su(h %one wo%!
and 'rassroots Dihadists do not have to "e "ona !ide mem"ers o! a mi%itant 'rou& to (arr
out atta(#s* There is a %en'thenin' %ist o! Dihadist o&eratives who have hit Hor &%otted to
hitI -estern tar'ets) in(%udin' +*S* Arm MaD* /ida% Ma%i# ;asan) who atta(#ed troo&s
in &ro(essin' at Fort ;ood) Te5as) a!ter "ein' radi(a%i,ed wat(hin' on%ine videos o! (%eri(
Anwar a%-Aw%a#i !rom a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4IK /aDi"u%%ah Ja,i H"orn
in A!'hanistan "ut a natura%i,ed +*S* (iti,enI) who attended a Tehri#-i-Ta%i"an 4a#istan
HTT4I trainin' (am& in 4a#istan and returned to the +nited States with &%ans to atta(#
/ew Cor#.s su"wa sstemK and Omar Farou# A"du% Muta%%a") a /i'erian who trave%ed
to Cemen to o"tain an e5&%osive devi(e and "e trained to use it in order to "%ow u& a +*S*-
"ound air%ine*
Fi#e A9A4 and the TT4) a% Sha"aa" has the (a&a"i%it to train wou%d-"e mi%itants
to (ondu(t sim&%e atta(#s a'ainst so!t tar'ets in the -est* A% Sha"aa" a%so has a si,a"%e
'rou& o! Ameri(an re(ruits) indi(atin' that the 'rou& has si'ni!i(ant &u%% in some Soma%i
(ommunities in the +nited States* The FB1 has investi'ated do,ens o! (ases in whi(h +*S*
(iti,ens Ho!ten !irst- or se(ond-'eneration immi'rants !rom Soma%iaI have returned to the
;orn o! A!ri(a to !i'ht !or a% Sha"aa"* A% Sha"aa" o&eratives need not do this
themse%vesK the need on% to !ind a wi%%in' sm&athi,er to do it !or them* 1ndividua%s
who have trave%ed to Soma%ia !rom the +nited States %i#e% wou%d not "e a"%e to snea#
"a(# into the +nited States) "ut the do have (onne(tions with &eo&%e sti%% in the +nited
States who (ou%d "e radi(a%i,ed and (onvin(ed to a(t out their ideo%o'i(a% su&&ort !or a%
Sha"aa" in the !orm o! an atta(#* Re(ruits !rom the Soma%i dias&ora in 0uro&e and
Canada wi%% a%so "e sus(e&ti"%e to a% Sha"aa" re(ruitin'*
-hi%e those mem"ers o! a% Sha"aa".s %eadershi& who are !o(used on the near
enem Hthe TF2 and its A+ su&&ortersI ma not have the strate'i( intent to (arr out
atta(#s a'ainst the -est) (onditions in Soma%ia a%%ow !or re(ruitin' or even &assive%
radi(a%i,in' and (onvin(in' outsiders to (arr out atta(#s on their "eha%!* 1t is here that
the %aw o! unintended (onse@uen(es (omes into &%a* A% Sha"aa" is not a mono%ithi(
!or(e that (an (ontro% the a(tions o! a%% o! its (ommanders or mem"ers) man o! whom
o&erate with si'ni!i(ant autonom* Some o! these (ommanders and mem"ers are #nown
to har"or anti--estern sentiments and have even (a%%ed !or vio%en(e a'ainst the -est*
-hi%e this ma not ne(essari% "ene!it the ori'ina% &ur&ose o! a% Sha"aa" Hto ta#e over
Soma%iaI) it a&&ears that it is the intent o! some o! its mem"ers to stri#e out at the -est*
The 'ood news !or the -est is that most %one wo%! and 'rassroots Dihadists are
untrained and ine5&erien(ed and end u& !ai%in' to (arr out their &%ots ? either "e(ause
the are dete(ted " authorities "e!ore the are a"%e to a(t or "e(ause the are ta(ti(a%%
una"%e to (arr out an atta(#* HOne o! the main reasons Dihadist atta(#s !ai% is "e(ause
the are over% (om&%e5I* 1t is the sim&%e atta(# ? one invo%vin' !irearms or a
rudimentar "om" ? that most %i#e% wi%% "e seen in the -est) (ondu(ted " a sin'%e
o&erative H%i#e% who a%read %ives in the areaI on "eha%! o! a% Sha"aa"*
A% Sha"aa" Threats A'ainst the +nited States<
6une 0, 2010
On the a!ternoon o! Sunda) Ma E7) an Aerome5i(o !%i'ht !rom 4aris to Me5i(o
Cit was !or(ed to %and in Montrea% a!ter authorities dis(overed that a man who was on
the +*S* no-!% %ist was a"oard* The air(ra!t was denied &ermission to enter +*S* airs&a(e)
and the air(ra!t was diverted to Trudeau 1nternationa% Air&ort in Montrea%* The man) a
Soma%i named A"dirahman A%i 2aa%%) was removed !rom the &%ane and arrested "
Canadian authorities on an outstandin' +*S* warrant* A!ter a sear(h o! a%% the remainin'
&assen'ers and their "a''a'e) the !%i'ht was a%%owed to (ontinue to its ori'ina%
destination*
2aa%% re&orted% has +*S* resident-a%ien status and is a&&arent% married to an
Ameri(an or Canadian woman* Media re&orts a%so su''est that he is (onne(ted with the
Soma%i Dihadist 'rou& a% Sha"aa"* 2aa%% was re&orted% de&orted !rom Canada to the
+nited States on June 8) and we are unsure o! the &re(ise (har'es "rou'ht a'ainst him "
the +*S* 'overnment) "ut more in!ormation shou%d "e !orth(omin' on(e he has his
detention hearin'* From the !a(ts at hand) however) it a&&ears %i#e% that he has "een
(har'ed !or his (onne(tion with a% Sha"aa") &erha&s with a (rime su(h as materia%
su&&ort to a desi'nated terrorist or'ani,ation*
Fast wee#) the 3e&artment o! ;ome%and Se(urit issued a %oo#out to authorities
in Te5as) warnin' that another Soma%i &ur&orted% %in#ed to a% Sha"aa" was "e%ieved to
"e in Me5i(o and was a%%e'ed% &%annin' to attem&t to (ross the "order into the +nited
States* This %oo#out a&&ears to "e %in#ed to a +*S* indi(tment in Mar(h (har'in' another
Soma%i man with runnin' a %ar'e-s(a%e smu''%in' rin' "rin'in' Soma%is into the +nited
States throu'h Fatin Ameri(a*
Ta#en to'ether) these in(idents hi'h%i'ht the in(reased attention the +*S*
'overnment has 'iven to a% Sha"aa" and the (on(ern that the Soma%i mi%itant 'rou& (ou%d
"e &%annin' to (ondu(t atta(#s in the +nited States* A%thou'h man detai%s &ertainin' to
the 2aa%% (ase remain un#nown at this time) these in(idents invo%vin' Soma%is) Me5i(o
and &ossi"%e mi%itant (onne(tions ? and the o"vious +*S* (on(ern ? &rovide an
o&&ortunit to dis(uss the dnami(s o! Soma%i immi'ration as it re%ates to the +*S* "order
with Me5i(o) as we%% as the &ossi"i%it that a% Sha"aa" has de(ided to tar'et the +nited
States*

T,e %o.al) D)as3ora
1n an dis(ussion o! a% Sha"aa") it is ver im&ortant to understand what is
ha&&enin' in Soma%ia ? and more im&ortant) what is not ha&&enin' there* Chaos has
%on' rei'ned in the A!ri(an (ountr) (haos that "e(ame a !u%%-"%own humanitarian (risis in
the ear% 8AA7s due to (ivi% war* Soma%ia never !u%% re(overed !rom that war) and has
%a(#ed a (oherent 'overnment !or de(ades now* -hi%e Soma%ia does have a 'overnment
in name) #nown as the Transitiona% Federa% 2overnment HTF2I) it (ontro%s %itt%e a&art
!rom a !ew nei'h"orhoods and out&osts in Mo'adishu) the (a&ita% o! Soma%ia* 1n this
va(uum o! authorit) war%ords and &irates have thrived) a%on' with a variet o! mi%itant
1s%amist 'rou&s) su(h as the Dihadist 'rou& a% Sha"aa"*
The de(ades o! !i'htin' and stri!e have a%so resu%ted in the dis&%a(ement o!
mi%%ions o! Soma%is* Man o! these &eo&%e have moved into (am&s set u& "
humanitarian or'ani,ations inside the (ountr to he%& the hu'e num"er o! interna%%
dis&%a(ed &eo&%e) "ut %ar'e num"ers o! Soma%is have a%so sou'ht re!u'e in nei'h"orin'
(ountries* 1n !a(t) the situation in Soma%ia is so "ad that man Soma%is have even sou'ht
re!u'e in Cemen) the &oorest (ountr in the Ara" wor%d* Tens o! thousands o! Soma%is
have a%so "een resett%ed a"road in &%a(es %i#e the +nited States) Canada and 0uro&e*
+n%i#e an earth@ua#e) tsunami or other natura% disaster) the man-made disaster in
Soma%ia has (ontinued !or de(ades* As Soma%i re!u'ees have "een sett%ed in &%a(es %i#e
the +nited States) the) %i#e man other immi'rants) !re@uent% see# to have their
re%atives Doin them* Fre@uent%) the are a"%e to do this throu'h %e'a% means) "ut @uite
o!ten) when the wait !or %e'a% immi'ration is deemed too %on' or an a&&%i(ation is denied
!or some reason ? su(h as the a&&%i(ant.s havin' served in a mi%itia ? i%%e'a% means are
sou'ht to "rin' !riends and re%atives into the (ountr* This is " no means a &attern
e5(%usive to Soma%i immi'rantsK it is a%so seen " other immi'rant 'rou&s !rom Asia)
A!ri(a and other &arts o! the wor%d* For e5am&%e) Christians !rom 1ra@) 0'&t and Sudan
are !re@uent% smu''%ed into the +nited States throu'h Fatin Ameri(a*
1n ears &ast) a si'ni!i(ant &ortion o! this i%%e'a% tra!!i( &assed throu'h Canada)
"ut in the &ost-AP88 wor%d) Canada has ti'htened its immi'ration %aws) ma#in' it more
di!!i(u%t to use Canada as an entr &oint into the +nited States* This has driven even more
immi'rant tra!!i( to Fatin Ameri(a) whi(h has %on' "een a &o&u%ar route !or immi'rants
see#in' to enter the +nited States i%%e'a%%*
1ndeed) we have seen an e5&ansion o! Soma%i a%ien-smu''%in' rin's in Fatin
Ameri(a in re(ent ears) and a((ordin' to do(uments !i%ed in (ourt) some o! these 'rou&s
have "een asso(iated with mi%itant 'rou&s in Soma%ia* 1n an indi(tment !i%ed in the +*S*
3istri(t Court !or the -estern 3istri(t o! Te5as on Mar(h E) 6787) a Soma%i named
Ahmed Muhammed 3ha#ane was (har'ed with o&eratin' a %ar'e-s(a%e a%ien-smu''%in'
rin' out o! Bra,i% res&onsi"%e !or smu''%in' severa% hundred Soma%is and other 0ast
A!ri(ans into the +nited States* The indi(tment a%%e'es that the &ersons 3ha#ane.s
or'ani,ation smu''%ed in(%uded severa% &eo&%e asso(iated with a%-1tihaad a%-1s%amia
HA1A1I) a mi%itant 'rou& %in#ed to a% 9aeda that was !o%ded into the Su&reme 1s%ami(
Courts Coun(i% HS1CCI a!ter the %atter 'rou&.s !ormation* A!ter 0thio&ian !or(es invaded
Soma%ia and to&&%ed the S1CC in %ate 6776) man o! the more hard(ore S1CC mi%itants
then Doined with the S1CC outh win') a% Sha"aa") to (ontinue their armed stru''%e* The
more nationa%ist-minded S1CC mem"ers !ormed their own mi%itant or'ani,ation) (a%%ed
;i,"u% 1s%am) whi(h at various times either (oo&erates or (om&etes with a% Sha"aa"* The
+*S* 'overnment o!!i(ia%% desi'nated A1A1 a terrorist 'rou& in Se&tem"er 6778* The
Mar(h indi(tment a%so a%%e'ed that 3ha#ane was asso(iated with a%-Bara#at) a Soma%ia-
"ased (om&an that is invo%ved in the trans!er o! mone to Soma%ia* The +*S*
'overnment (%aims that a%-Bara#at is invo%ved in !undin' terrorist 'rou&s and has
desi'nated the (om&an a terrorist entit* 3ias&ora Soma%is trans!er a 'reat dea% o!
%e'itimate mone to !ami% mem"ers "a(# in Soma%ia throu'h or'ani,ations su(h as a%-
Bara#at "e(ause there is no o!!i(ia% "an#in' sstem in the (ountr) and mi%itant 'rou&s
%i#e a% Sha"aa" use this !%ow o! mone as (amou!%a'e !or their own !inan(ia%
transa(tions*
Man other a%ien smu''%ers "esides 3ha#ane are invo%ved in movin' Soma%is
throu'h Fatin Ameri(a* Most o! these smu''%ers are motivated " &ro!it) "ut some %i#e
3ha#ane who have ties to mi%itant 'rou&s mi'ht not "e o&&osed to movin' &eo&%e
invo%ved with mi%itant 'rou&s ? es&e(ia%% i! the a%so ha&&en to ma#e more mone in
the &ro(ess* Other smu''%ers mi'ht un#nowin'% move mi%itants* Moreover) a num"er o!
!ront "usinesses) (harities and mos@ues in the re'ion more (%ose% tied to mi%itant 'rou&s
o! various stri&es are used to raise !unds) re(ruit and !a(i%itate the trave% o! o&eratives
throu'h the re'ion* Some o! these entities have ver (%ose ties to &eo&%e and
or'ani,ations inside the +nited States) and those ties are o!ten used to !a(i%itate the
trans!er o! !unds and the trave% o! &eo&%e*
De+er.)0)05 I0+e0+)o0s
C%ear%) there are man Soma%is trave%in' into the +nited States without
do(umentation* A((ordin' to the +*S* 'overnment) some o! these Soma%is have ties to
Dihadist 'rou&s su(h as A1A1 and a% Sha"aa") %i#e 3ha#ane and 2aa%%) res&e(tive%* 2iven
the num"er o! war%ords and mi%itias a(tive in Soma%ia and the endemi( %a(# o!
em&%oment inside the (ountr) it is not at a%% un(ommon !or oun' men there to see#
em&%oment as mem"ers o! a mi%itia* For man Soma%is who are driven " the need
mere% to survive) ideo%o' is a mere %u5ur* This means that un%i#e the hard(ore
Dihadists en(ountered in Saudi Ara"ia or even 4a#istan) man o! the men !i'htin' in the
various Soma%i mi%itias do not ne(essari% as(ri"e to a &arti(u%ar ideo%o' other than
surviva% Hthou'h there are (ertain% man hi'h% radi(a%i,ed individua%s) tooI*
The (riti(a% @uestion) then) is one o! intent* Are these Soma%is with mi%itant ties
trave%in' to the +nited States in &ursuit o! a "etter %i!e Hone hard% need "e an 1s%amist
"ent on atta(#in' the -est to want to es(a&e !rom Soma%iaI) or are the see#in' to trave%
to the +nited States to (arr out terrorist atta(#s<
The situation "e(omes even more (om&%e5 in the (ase o! someone %i#e 2aa%%) who
(ame to the +nited States) re&orted% married an Ameri(an woman) re(eived resident-
a%ien status) "ut then (hose to %eave the (om!ort and se(urit o! the +nited States to return
to Soma%ia* C%ear%) he was not a true as%um see#er who !eared !or his %i!e in Soma%ia) or
he wou%d not have returned to the A!ri(an (ountr* -hi%e some &eo&%e "e(ome homesi(#
and return home) or are drawn "a(# to Soma%ia !or some a%truisti( &ur&ose) su(h as
wor#in' with a non-'overnmenta% or'ani,ation to de%iver !ood aid to starvin'
(ountrmen? or to wor# with the Soma%i 'overnment or a !orei'n 'overnment with
interests in Soma%ia ? some Soma%is trave% "a(# to su&&ort and !i'ht with a% Sha"aa"*
Sin(e most o! the &revious% mentioned a(tivities are not i%%e'a% in the +nited States) the
(rimina% (har'es 2aa%% !a(es %i#e% stem !rom (onta(t with a% Sha"aa"*
;avin' (onta(t with a% Sha"aa" does not ne(essari% mean that someone %i#e
2aa%% wou%d automati(a%% return to the +nited States intendin' to (ondu(t atta(#s there*
1t is &ossi"%e that he (onsidered Soma%ia a %e'itimate theater !or Dihad "ut did not (onsider
(ivi%ians in the +nited States %e'itimate tar'ets* There is a 'reat dea% o! disa'reement in
Dihadist (ir(%es re'ardin' su(h issues) as witnessed " the in!i'htin' inside a% 9aeda in the
1s%ami( Ma'hre" over tar'et se%e(tion* There are a%so mi%itant 'rou&s) %i#e ;amas and
;e,"o%%ah) who (onsider the +nited States as a &%a(e to re(ruit and raise !unds rather than
a "att%e!ie%d !or Dihad* +*S* authorities (ertain% wou%d err on the side o! (aution re'ardin'
su(h &eo&%e) and wou%d (har'e them with an a&&%i(a"%e (rimina% (har'es) su(h as
materia% su&&ort o! a terrorist 'rou&) rather than run the ris# o! missin' an im&endin'
atta(#*
1! it is determined that 2aa%% intended to (ondu(t an atta(# inside the +nited
States) the ne5t @uestion "e(omes whether he sou'ht to (ondu(t an atta(# o! his own
vo%ition or was sent " a% Sha"aa" or some other entit*
As we have &revious% dis(ussed) we (onsider the (urrent Dihadist wor%d to "e
(om&osed o! three di!!erent %aers* These %aers are the (ore a% 9aeda 'rou&K the re'iona%
a% 9aeda !ran(hises H%i#e a% Sha"aa"IK and 'rassroots Dihadists ? either individua%s or
sma%% (e%%s ? ins&ired " a% 9aeda and the re'iona% !ran(hises "ut who ma have %itt%e i!
an a(tua% (onne(tion to them* 1t wi%% "e im&ortant to determine what 2aa%%.s re%ationshi&
was with a% Sha"aa"*
To this &oint) the %eadershi& o! a% Sha"aa" has shown %itt%e interest in (ondu(tin'
atta(#s outside Soma%ia* -hi%e the have issued threats a'ainst +'anda) Burundi) Kena
and 0thio&ia Hwhi(h invaded Soma%ia and de&osed the S1CCI) a% Sha"aa" has et to a(t
on these threats Hthou'h A1A1 did (ondu(t a series o! %ow-%eve% "om"in' atta(#s in
0thio&ia in 8AA6 and 8AAB and a% Sha"aa" has &eriodi( "order s#irmishes with the
Kenan mi%itarI* Soma%is have a%so "een invo%ved with the a% 9aeda (ore !or man
ears) and a% Sha"aa" has sworn a%%e'ian(e to Osama "in Faden ? the reason we
(onsider them an a% 9aeda re'iona% !ran(hise 'rou&*
That said) we have "een wat(hin' a% Sha"aa" (%ose% this ear to see i! the
!o%%ow in the !ootste&s o! a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a HA9A4I and "e(ome a
transnationa% terrorist 'rou& " %aun(hin' atta(#s a'ainst the -est rather than Dust a 'rou&
with a nationa% or re'iona% !o(us* -hi%e some a% Sha"aa" mem"ers) %i#e Ameri(an-"orn
Omar ;ammami ? who sin's Dihadi ra& son's a"out "rin'in' Ameri(a to its #nees ?
have threatened the -est) it remains un(%ear whether this is rhetori( or i! the 'rou& tru%
intends to atta(# tar'ets !arther a!ie%d* So !ar) we have seen %itt%e indi(ation that a%
Sha"aa" &ossesses su(h intent*
3ue to this %a(# o! demonstrated intent) our assessment at the &resent time is that
a% Sha"aa" has not et made the %ea& to "e(omin' transnationa%* That assessment (ou%d
(han'e in the near !uture) however) as detai%s !rom the 2aa%% (ase (ome out durin' (ourt
&ro(eedin's ? es&e(ia%% i! it is shown that a% Sha"aa" sent 2aa%% to the +nited States to
(ondu(t an atta(#*