2011 Preview: Sequels - Now, More

Than Ever
by Brandon Gray
January 28, 2011
In 2011, Hollywood will rely on former
glories to a greater degree than ever
before. Sequels (including prequels and
spin-offs) comprise over a fifth of the
currently scheduled nationwide releases, tallying 27. Last year, there were 19, and the
previous high was 24 in 2003.
Of the 27 sequels, nine are second movies (Cars 2, Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2: Rodrick
Rules, The Hangover Part II, Happy Feet 2, Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs.
Evil,Johnny English Reborn, Kung Fu Panda 2, Piranha 3DD, Sherlock Holmes 2),
up from eight in 2010. Five are third movies (Alvin and the Chipmunks:
Chipwrecked, Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son,Madea's Big Happy
Family, Paranormal Activity 3,Transformers: Dark of the Moon), down from seven in
2010.
Deeper cut sequels will be well represented all the way up to No. 8. There'll be the highest
number of fourth movies ever, tallying five (Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol,Pirates
of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Scream 4, Spy Kids 4: All the Time in the
World, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One)). Fifth movies will also have
their largest showing yet, numbering five (Fast Five, Final Destination 5, Puss in
Boots, X-Men: First Class, Winnie the Pooh). There will also technically be two seventh
movies (The Muppets, Rise of the Apes) and one mighty eighth entry (Harry Potter
and the Deathly Hallows Part Two). (None of this is countingNew Year's Eve, which
may or may not be a sequel toValentine's Day, or The Thing, which may be a prequel.)
The majority of sequels are repeats of the last two years: Eight movies follow 2009 movies,
while six follow 2010 movies. Sequels to 2006 movies are the next best represented at five.
The longest time between sequels will beThe Muppets' 12 years, followed by Scream 4's
11 years, Rise of the Apes's ten years and around eight years each for Spy Kids
4 and Johnny English Reborn. None of those are a match for the waits for last
year's Tron Legacy (over 28 years) and Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (nearly 23
years).
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two) (July 15) is heralded as the finale of
the blockbuster series, and the movie that will take Harry Potter past Star Wars to
become the top-grossing franchise ever (though it will still trail in attendance). In Box Office
Mojo's reader polling, Deathly Hallows (Part Two) is by far the most anticipated movie of
2011 (with over 36 percent of the vote) and is expected to be the biggest-grossing movie of
the year (nearly 51 percent). Harry Potter, though, is coming off of a soft note for the
penultimate Potter,Deathly Hallows Part 1, which grossed less than its predecessor and
marked the least-attended Potter yet.
A more optimistic perspective would be that Deathly Hallows Part 1 did a hell of a lot of
business for half a movie, and fans are still expected to be out in force for the finale (which
will be the first to carry a 3D ticket price premium). For instance, the last Star Wars trilogy





took an even greater hit with Attack of the Clones and then rebounded with the Revenge
of the Sith finale. The first Harry Potter currently stands as the series' mightiest with
$317.6 million (the equivalent of around $440 million adjusted for ticket price inflation).
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (July 1) strikes Independence Day weekend just like its
blockbuster predecessors Transformers ($319.2 million) from 2007 and Transformers:
Revenge of the Fallen ($402.1 million) from 2009. Revenge of the Fallen benefitted
from the good will generated by the first Transformers, but it also let down many fans,
likely cooling excitement for this third entry (even if it's in 3D). Dark of the Moon's teaser
trailer doesn't reveal itself as a Transformers movie until the end of a long build-up
involving the first Apollo mission to the moon. While that might have been an intriguing
approach for another movie, it didn't seem any different than the
previous Transformers movies (a transmission from a mission to Mars was a big part of the
first movie's promotions).
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May 20) docks four years after the
franchise's momentum slowed with At World's End ($309.4 million), which was off 27
percent from Dead Man's Chest ($423.3 million). Unlike At World's End, On Stranger
Tides won't be burdened by the shackles of a continuing storyline, offering more of Johnny
Depp's Jack Sparrow antics (free of Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley) as he searches for
the Fountain of Youth. The movie's first trailer, though, is just that: more Sparrow. And, thus
far, it may be lacking in excitement and spectacle to fully re-fire up the base, despite the 3D.
The first half of the summer sees four other major sequels. The Hangover Part II (May
26) and Kung Fu Panda 2 (May 27) duke it out over Memorial Day weekend. The former
will try to avoid the common comedy sequel pitfall(which Little Fockers and Sex and the
City 2 fell in to), while the latter marks DreamWorks Animation's third stab at
sequelization and hopes to be more Shrek 2 than Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa.
Prequel X-Men: First Class strikes the week after, but without the franchise's most popular
character Wolverine, who struck out with his own prequel in 2009. Pixar's second attempt at
sequelization after Toy Story, the merchandise-driven Cars 2, starts on June 24, aiming to
build on the first Cars' $244.1 million haul.
Like On Stranger Tides, Breaking Dawn (Part One) (Nov. 18) follows a trilogy, but one
that ended on a high note: with $300.5 million, third entry Eclipse pulled off the rare feat of
out-grossing the second entry New Moon.Breaking Dawn returns to the pre-Thanksgiving
slot of the first Twilight and New Moon (and formerly Harry Potter), but will have the
longest wait yet (17 months). Add in a reportedly mixed fan reaction to the novel and how
being broken in two didn't help Deathly Hallows Part 1, and it wouldn't be surprising if
interest ebbs forBreaking Dawn.
On Dec. 16, three big-time sequels are scheduled to face-off (Alvin and the Chipmunks:
Chipwrecked,Sherlock Holmes 2, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol), but expect
one of them to flinch. Mission seems the likeliest candidate, given that it was the last one
scheduled and that the first three Missions were all May releases,
while Alvin and Sherlock are in their established Christmas homes. The new Mission also
strays from its numerically-titled predecessors by adding the potentially awkward Ghost
Protocol subtitle. Still, since Mission: Impossible III was by far the worst-
performing Mission, the franchise was due for a shake-up if it was going to continue. To
that end, director Brad Bird (Ratatouille, The Incredibles) will be making his live-action
debut, andJeremy Renner reportedly joins Tom Cruise as co-lead.
In the shadow of Avatar, the first Sherlock Holmes grossed a substantial $209 million,
potentially starting a second franchise for star Robert Downey, Jr. after Iron Man. The
first Sherlock wasn't as dear to audiences asIron Man, and, if it is to retain the audience
or grow, Sherlock 2 cannot rest on the brand's laurels like Iron Man 2 did. A positive sign
is that Holmes will contend with his most famous nemesis, Professor Moriarty, and a strong
villain is known to boost business (example: The Dark Knight). The
third Chipmunks movie will be the first in 3D, and the franchise has been remarkably
successful so far: the first two movies are the top two grossing talking-animal comedies of all
time, and The Squeakquel retained nearly all of the first movie's attendance when such
sequels usually fizzle (like with Stuart Little and Garfield). Chipwrecked's premise is
currently unknown, but it will be tough for it to top its predecessors.
Fast Five gets a jump on the summer with its April 29 release, although that late April
period has been troublesome in the past (XXX: State of the Union, Volcano, etc.). This
fifth entry in The Fast and the Furiousfranchise hopes to be fueled by Fast and
Furious's injection: that fourth movie accelerated to an April opening record ($71 million),
more than the final haul of Tokyo Drift ($62.5 million), and went on to become the
franchise's top grosser at $155.1 million (ranking second to the first movie in
attendance). Fast and Furious was marketed as a return to the first movie (parts two and
three lacked Vin Diesel, part three lacked Paul Walker, etc.), and Fast Five will continue that
theme, pitched as an "all stars" gathering from each movie with Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson
added to the mix for an Expendables-style showdown of would-be action stars Diesel and
Johnson.
Not to be forgotten is horror, which is historically the genre best known for going hog wild
with sequels. Scream 4(April 15) rises eleven years after Scream 3 was supposed to have
wrapped up the series. Key cast members Neve Campbell, David Arquette and Courteney
Cox return along with a bevy of familiar new faces, and the marketing has ran with the "New
Decade. New Rules" angle. Scream 3 had worse retention than Scream 2, but, overall,
theScream franchise's box office held up well. After dethroning Saw as the new Halloween
tradition, Paranormal Activity continues with its third entry on Oct. 22, and business
should continue to decline. More gruesome deaths in 3D are on tap with Final Destination
5 (Aug. 26), despite the fourth movie being pushed as the final Final Destination (its
franchise-high grosses changed that tune). Meanwhile, Piranha 3DD (Sept. 16) is getting
churned out just over a year after predecessor Piranha 3D grossed a gutless $25 million,
though it will be opening just two weeks after The Final Destination director David R.
Ellis's Untitled 3D Shark Thriller.
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