Health and Economy in Africa with Ebola

Ebola the reality and the hysteria over it is having a serious economic impact on Guinea,
Liberia and Sierra Leone, three nations already at the bottom of global economic and social
indicators. Aggravating both the financial and social consequences, these countries and their
frightened African neighbours are enacting concentric circles of quarantines, cutting off
neighbourhoods, regions and even whole nations.

International medical authorities have warned against such practices, arguing that they will
worsen suffering and deprivation, and do little to stop the spread of the disease.
But many African nations have gone ahead anyway, sealing borders, barring entry to residents of
the affected countries, stopping their national carriers from flying to them, and even, in the case
of Senegal, refusing to allow humanitarian flights with urgently needed supplies and medical
personnel. That decision has infuriated aid agencies here in their West African hub. South Africa
and Kenya, two of the continents economic heavyweights, have restricted entry to people
coming from the Ebola zone.

For the worst-hit countries, isolating and stigmatising them and making it difficult to transport
supplies, personnel and other resources can only make things worse, the World Health
Organisations regional director for Africa, Luis Gomes Sambo, said at a meeting in Ghana last
week.
For three nations that have only recently emerged from decades of war and political upheaval,
Ebola has dealt a hard blow. After a decade of conflict we were set to restore the economy to its
prewar status, Amara Konneh, Liberias finance minister, said in an interview. This outbreak is
dealing a serious blow to all of our efforts. This is the biggest crisis we have faced since the end
of our civil war.

With sections of Liberia and Sierra Leone under quarantine and the borders Senegal and Guinea
sealed, the movement of goods has slowed. National budgets are under strain, health care
expenditures are rising, government revenues are dropping and agricultural production,
especially in Sierra Leone, is taking a hit. South Africa is barring entry to non-South Africans
who have been in the affected countries, and Kenya and Senegal are practicing similar measures.

With the main harvest now at risk and trade and movements of goods severely restricted, food
insecurity is poised to intensify in the weeks and months to come, the United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organisations regional representative for Africa, Bukar Tijani, said in a statement
Tuesday.

This week the United Nations warned that the price of cassava, a staple starch, increased 150
percent in Monrovia in the first week of August. In Sierra Leone rice, fish, palm oil and other
basics have all risen in price, according to the countrys finance ministry.

Fear of Ebola has added uncertainty, recalling the worst period of the 1990s civil wars in West
Africa. People are thinking, This is going to be as bad as the war," said Rupert Day, who runs
a British cocoa and coffee trading company in eastern Sierra Leone, at the heart of the Ebola
zone. My staff said, At least during the war, you knew when the rebels were coming, Day
said. He has had to shut down much of his operation and lay off many in his staff of around 90.

Five months into the epidemic, World Bank officials said they are still working out the
epidemics economic impact in light of a new World Health Organisation estimate of 20,000
potential Ebola cases.

But the bank has already projected a drop in Guineas GDP growth rate of at least one percent. In
Liberia health care expenditures will now account for 25 per cent of the governments annual
budget because of Ebola, instead of 8 per cent, said the countrys finance minister. ArcelorMittal,
which runs a major iron ore mining operation in Liberia, has delayed an expansion because
contractors have evacuated 645 employees. In Sierra Leone, where the countrys main
agricultural region has been hardest hit, the finance ministry wrote this week of the devastating
impact of the disease on the countrys economy, predicting a 4 per cent drop in growth.

The evidence is so far mostly anecdotal. But analysts, economists and officials agree: the shock
is noticeable. Very, very damaging, said the president of the African Development Bank,
Donald Kaberuka, in a statement last week, while the ratings agency Moodys spoke of
significant economic and fiscal ramifications from the epidemic across the region.

There is a drastic drop in output due to health issues. In Sierra Leone, where the finance ministry
this week produced a detailed summary of Ebolas economic implications, there will be fewer
farmers to harvest cassava, cocoa and coffee in the countrys breadbasket. Villagers spoke of
harvests being canceled this year because so many farmers had died, and the finance ministry
predicted the loss of a whole planting season. It projected a one-third drop in agricultural
output.