Using remote sensing tools to assess land use transitions in

unsustainable arid agro-ecosystems

Jose Raul Romo-Leon
a,
*
, Willem J.D. van Leeuwen
a, b
, Alejandro Castellanos-Villegas
a, c
a
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, Arizona Remote Sensing Center, 1955 E. Sixth Street, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
b
School of Geography and Development, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
c
Departamento de Investigaciones Cienticas y Tecnologicas, Universidad de Sonora, Luis Donaldo Colosio s/n, entre Sahuaripa y Reforma Colonia Centro,
C.P. 83000 Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 22 August 2012
Received in revised form
1 March 2014
Accepted 6 March 2014
Available online 12 April 2014
Keywords:
Desert succession
Land-cover change
Remote sensing
Sonoran Desert
Sustainable management policies
a b s t r a c t
This research investigates the human impact on land-cover dynamics in arid agro-ecosystems. Our study
area was La Costa de Hermosillo (northwestern Mexico), where the unregulated use of water resources
has resulted in the abandonment of irrigated agricultural elds and a shift to new economic activities.
Using remote sensing and ancillary datasets combined with classication and regression tree (CART)
models, we mapped land-cover class distributions over 22 years (1988e2009) to characterize agricul-
tural changes following management decisions. Our land-cover classication maps had an overall ac-
curacy of over 80%. Using these maps, we were able to show the decrease in agriculture from
approximately 115,066 to 66,044 ha between 1988 and 2009 and the conversion to alternative economic
activities, with aquaculture increasing from 0 to 10,083 ha during the same period. Our analyses also
show the temporalespatial dynamics of land-use management practices, which suggest that imple-
mentation of the remote sensing methods developed in this manuscript may contribute to bridging the
gap of knowledge between ecological effects and unsustainable management practices and decrease the
time required to inform and make policy decisions in arid agro-ecosystems.
2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
1.1. Agricultural land use in arid ecosystems
Increasing demands and needs from a growing human popu-
lation have resulted in the widespread use and rapid conversion of
most natural land-cover types to agriculture. This conversion trend
only slowed down in recent decades because of the intensication
of agricultural practices resulting in increased crop yields from
fertilizer and pesticide use (Tilman et al., 2002). However, other
limiting factors (water, sunlight or temperature) for each particular
agricultural region also affect productivity (Rabbinge, 1993).
When agricultural practices take place inaridenvironments, large
supplies of fresh water are required for crop irrigation (Ewel, 1999).
Therefore, as it is for natural ecosystems, water isoftenoneof themost
important limiting factors for agriculture in arid lands. In many arid
regions around the world, irrigation agriculture leads to unsustain-
able land uses, which has resulted in the rapid abandonment of large
agricultural areas in recent years (Halvorson et al., 2003).
An example of such an abandonment occurred in northwestern
Mexico, where irrigation agriculture had a boom and bust cycle of
approximately fty years (Halvorson et al., 2003; Moreno-Vzquez,
2006). Initially, higher volumes of ground-water were required to
irrigate crops because of increased land used for agriculture and the
use of crops with a high-water requirement. Increased water
extraction resulted in marine water intrusions to the aquifer and
increased salt levels in many agricultural elds, which had major
economic and environmental impacts (Andrews, 1981; Halvorson
et al., 2003; Rangel Medina et al., 2002). To mitigate further
degradation of the underground aquifers, governmental regula-
tions were enacted to reduce and control water extraction for crop
irrigation; however, considerable damage had already been done. It
is recognized that methodologies to quantify the success of these
efforts are not documented or well developed.
The unsustainable use of ground-water in desert regions has
been documented, and a required shortening of the cycle between
scientic discovery, management proposals to policy makers and
* Corresponding author. Current address: Luis Donaldo Colosio s/n, entre
Sahuaripa y Reforma Colonia Centro, C.P. 83000 Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico.
Tel.: 52 662 259 2169; fax: 52 662 259 2195.
E-mail addresses: joser2@email.arizona.edu (J.R. Romo-Leon), leeuw@email.
arizona.edu (W.J.D. van Leeuwen), acastell@guaymas.uson.mx (A. Castellanos-
Villegas).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Arid Environments
j ournal homepage: www. el sevi er. com/ l ocat e/ j ari denv
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.03.002
0140-1963/ 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Journal of Arid Environments 106 (2014) 27e35
the implementation of proper regulations has been highlighted
(MacKay, 2006). Land-use analysis to understand ecosystem func-
tions has been recognized as a necessary tool to increase stake-
holder participation and involvement in sustainable management
practices (Knig et al., 2012). We propose that efcient and accurate
monitoring protocols to evaluate land use and management prac-
tices in the desert can lead to the development of better policies for
sustainable agriculture. We strongly believe that because of the
high rate of conversion of land cover in agricultural areas, it is
crucial to understand and monitor changes across time to effec-
tively assess management practices (from government and stake-
holders) and mitigate potentially adverse ecological impacts.
1.2. Remote sensing and land cover dynamics
Land-cover changes modify landscapes and ecosystem pro-
cesses all over the world (Lambin et al., 2001). To measure and
detect such change, numerous approaches that use remote sensing
tools are available (Coppin et al., 2004; Lu et al., 2004; Mas, 1999).
In this study, we plan to use the post-classication comparison as a
change detection approach (Lu et al., 2004; Singh, 1989) to assess
changes in the distribution of agricultural lands at ve dates over
different years in our study area.
The main goal of this research is to design and apply remote
sensing approaches with the potential of improving monitoring
and assessment of rapid land-cover change phenomena and eval-
uate land-use trends for arid agroecosytems. These improvements
could lead to more rapid development of informed and sustainable
management policies. To test such tools, we reconstruct land-use
and land-cover dynamics in an arid agricultural region in north-
western Mexico to assess howland cover has changed over the last
22 years. Using this case study, we evaluate and discuss those
changes with respect to the multiple drivers (economic, political,
and ecological) that impact the use of arid lands.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
This research tests remote sensing tools tailored for arid lands to
assess regional land-cover change over time with respect to agri-
culture to develop informed input for decision making policies. We
selected the area of La Costa de Hermosillo in Sonora, Mexico as the
study area. This arid agro-ecosystem is located in northwestern
Mexico, west of the city of Hermosillo, and approximately between
the coordinates 28

14
0
Ne28

57
0
N latitude and 111

15
0
We111

45
0
Wlongitude. La Costa de Hermosillo is located within an exoreic
watershed, and its surface waters run to the Gulf of California
(Rangel Medina et al., 2002). The 833 km
2
irrigation district of La
Costa de Hermosillo (Castellanos et al., 2005) is located within the
plains and the central gulf subdivision of the Sonoran Desert
(McGinnies, 1981; Shreve and Wiggins, 1964). However, agricul-
tural practices expanded beyond the district boundaries to occupy
over 2000 km
2
. In an effort to characterize agricultural areas and
the landscape surrounding these developments, our study area
extends to the coast line for a total area of 5090 km
2
(Fig. 1).
Elevation in the study area ranges from0 to 455 m. Mean annual
temperature for the region ranges between 18 and 22

C, with
maximum temperatures of over 45

C during the summer, and
minimum temperatures above 0

C in the winter. Precipitation
varies from 100 to 300 mm-yr
1
in a bimodal summer/winter
regime, with the wettest months being July and August. Potential
evapotranspiration range is 2200e2500 mm-yr
1
(Halvorson et al.,
2003).
Currently, numerous agricultural developments are taking place
in the study area. Two can be considered the most important
because of the large extent of land used for agriculture. We delin-
eated these areas based on available aerial photography from the
late 1970s and Landsat images from the late 1980s. These areas of
study are referred to as northern and southern agricultural de-
velopments and their areal extents are 353.3 and 1663.2 km
2
,
respectively (Fig. 2).
Fig. 1. Map of Sonora, the Hermosillo municipality and the selected study area. The
study area is based on the location of the La Costa de Hermosillo irrigation district and
subsequent agricultural expansion.
Fig. 2. Map of the study area, showing a Landsat-based Normalized Difference Vege-
tation Index (NDVI) from 1988 and the delineation of the southern and northern
agricultural developments.
J.R. Romo-Leon et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 106 (2014) 27e35 28
2.2. Datasets and derived variables used for land use/cover
classication
In the case of arid ecosystems, precipitation measurements
show a high correlation with land cover and seasonality (Beatley,
1974; Loik et al., 2004; Young and Nobel, 1986). At La Costa de
Hermosillo, the majority of precipitation occurs during the summer
monsoon; therefore, our remotely sensed data must be selected
before and after this season to catch the phenological differences
between vegetation types. By using two images capturing two
different phenological stages (before and during the growing sea-
son), we inform the land-cover classication algorithm by depict-
ing how much change the different classes undergo from one stage
to another; this becomes a new differentiation factor when we
conduct the thematic classication.
We selected ve years (1988, 1993, 1998, 2004 and 2009) from
which we chose two Landsat TMscenes, one pre- and another post-
monsoon season. Each of the images used for the analysis was
processed with the cosine of the zenith angle (COST) model to
minimize atmospheric inuences on the reectance signal
(Chander et al., 2007; Chavez, 1996). The Instituto Nacional de
Estadistica en Informacion Geograca (INEGI) also supplied us with
a digital elevation model (DEM) dataset that was resampled to the
same spatial resolution and projection as the Landsat scenes.
The atmospherically corrected multispectral and DEMdata were
used to derive a set of remote sensing and topographic variables,
respectively, for use in our classication (Table 1).
2.3. Land-cover classication scheme
To derive the land-cover classes in our study area, we devised a
hybrid approach using the land-cover classication scheme pro-
posed by Anderson et al. (1976) and the vegetation-communities
scheme proposed by CONAFOR in the Mexican national forest in-
ventory (SARH, 1994). In this study, we used Level I classes that
Anderson et al. (1976) recommended for Landsat type sensors.
Level I classes attempt to describe the general land use represented
by the sensor signal (e.g., water agriculture, urban area, etc.)
without going into further detail on the classes (e.g., urban-
residential, urban-commercial and services, etc.). Further subdivi-
sion of certain classes was achieved by using the vegetation
schemes proposed by CONAFOR, which further describes vegeta-
tion communities according to plant physiognomic characteristics
(height, shape, and form), oristic composition and ecological
distribution (Table 2).
Because of the high degree of confusion introduced into our
automated classication process by the class denoting urban areas,
we decided to manually assign this class to corresponding land-
marks that were well-identied in the landscape. We used aerial
photos, high resolution images and the Landsat dataset for this
process. An automated. supervised classication approach was
conducted for the remaining land use/cover classes (Table 2).
2.4. Classication model, training datasets and accuracy
assessment
2.4.1. CART Model
We used the classication and regression tree (CART) modeling
approach (Breiman et al., 1984; Death and Fabricius, 2000) for the
classication of land-cover types. This approach has been widely
used to achieve land-cover classications of landscapes at different
resolutions (De Fries et al., 1998; Friedl et al., 2002; Lowry et al.,
2007; Rogan et al., 2002) and has been documented to outper-
form other classication techniques (Hansen et al., 1996; Pal and
Mather, 2003). A CART model classication was generated for
each year using the combined variables of the two Landsat images
collected per period and the topography products derived from the
DEM. A similar approach is described by Villarreal et al. (2012) and
was successfully applied to classify and analyze land-cover change
in semi-arid regions in Arizona.
2.4.2. Classication training
To achieve high accuracy in our classied thematic maps, we
decided to use the supervised classication approach by training
our classier with samples from each of the classes (Tso and
Mather, 2009). Each classication required the sampling of
training points that were specically identied for the periods we
Table 1
Variables used in the land cover classication derived from Landsat spectral
reectance data (each year) and a DEM. These variables were processed to a com-
mon resolution (30 m).
No. of layers Variable Reference
1 Enhanced Vegetation
Index 2 (EVI2)
(Jiang et al., 2008)
1 Enhanced Vegetation
Index (EVI)
(Huete et al., 2002;
van Leeuwen et al., 1999)
1 Modied Soil Adjusted
Vegetation Index MSAVI
(Qi et al., 1994)
1 Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI)
(Tucker, 1979)
1 Soil Adjusted Total
Vegetation Index (SATVI)
(Marsett et al., 2006)
1 Soil Adjusted
Vegetation Index (SAVI)
(Huete, 1988)
6 Reectance
6 Tasseled Cap (Crist and Cicone, 1984)
6 Texture (Alhaddad et al., 2007;
Asner et al., 2002)
12 Multitemporal
Kauth Thomas (MKT)
(Collins and Woodcock, 1996)
12 Principal Components (Collins and Woodcock, 1996;
Fung and LeDrew, 1987)
1 Elevation
1 Aspect
1 Slope
Table 2
Land-cover classication scheme used for La Costa de Hermosillo region.
Class ID Land-cover class Description
1 Active agriculture
a
Row crops, orchard and pastures
2 Fallow elds Active agricultural elds not planted
at the particular time the imagery
was acquired
3 Aquaculture Pools destined for the farming of sh
and shrimp
4 Barren/scarce
vegetation
Rock, barren soil or less than 10% cover
of vegetation
5 Desert shrublands Mostly foliage shrubs found in the
driest regions of Mexico
6 Succulent shrublands Plants with thick eshy stems located
on rocky shallow soils and found on
hills and hill slopes. Succulent shrubs
are also found in these communities
7 Estuary/water Water ponds and estuaries
8 Halophyte/coastal
vegetation
Scrub and herbaceous vegetation that
can grow in soil with high salt content
9 Mesquite shrublands County dominated principally by
mesquite and other trees
10 Urban area Area covered by structures, impervious
surfaces, vegetation and dirt
a
This class collapsed all types of active agriculture to observe if we managed to
obtain high accuracy with our classication algorithms.
J.R. Romo-Leon et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 106 (2014) 27e35 29
classied or were in close proximity in time (where no visually
perceptible changes occurred).
For each of the classes, the number of training samples varied
between 35 and 130 depending on class distribution and area
occupied by the class across the landscape. The classes that occupy
less area were less intensively sampled (e.g., estuary/water). We
intended to obtain the highest accuracy possible for the classes
related to agricultural activities and aquaculture. Therefore, these
areas were sampled more intensively, even if the land-cover type
was not extensively distributed in our study area.
The training samples were obtained using various data sources
that allowed us to recognize the land-cover types present during
different time ranges. These datasets included active eld sampling,
previous eld datasets available for the area, the use of remotely
sensed high resolution imagery (Quickbird and IKONOS) and aerial
photography.
2.4.3. Assessing classication accuracy
We conducted accuracy assessment analysis using the error
matrix approach (Congalton, 1991; Foody, 2002; Lu et al., 2004),
which consists of a simple array of rows and columns that represent
the number of units sampled assigned to particular categories or
classes in contrast with the actual category measured on the
ground. The columns represent reference data, and the rows
represent the classication estimates generated via remote sensing
(Congalton, 1991; Story, 1986). The major diagonal in the matrix
represents the classied and observed true values in the eld,
with the overall accuracy obtained by summing the entries in the
entire diagonal then dividing the sum by the total number of
samples taken (Story, 1986). Several statistical measurements were
derived from the error matrix: the producer and user accuracies
and the widely used Kappa statistic (Congalton, 1991; Story, 1986).
The classication accuracies for 2009, 2004 and 1998 were
assessed by generating a total of 315 random, stratied points.
Because no in-situ datasets existed to assess the distribution of the
classes on the ground, we veried the accuracy of these classes by
using aerial photography and high-resolution satellite imagery
provided by web services and Mexican agencies.
The quality of the datasets used for accuracy assessment for the
2004 and 2009 classication were very similar because the loca-
tions were obtained from the historical products provided by the
Google Earth web service (http://www.google.com/earth/index.
html). The accuracy points for 1998 were derived from panchro-
matic orthophotos that were provided by the Mexican agency
INEGI and several of the samples used in the classication of 2004
that showed changes in spectral response (i.e., water).
2.5. Agricultural land dynamics at La Costa de Hermosillo
2.5.1. Change detection analysis
From the classied land-cover maps obtained for La Costa de
Hermosillo, we proceeded to extract the northern and southern
agricultural developments from each year. For all land-cover maps,
we grouped all classes in a single class, except for fallow agri-
cultural elds and active agricultural elds. We then calculated the
amount of area dedicated to agriculture to assess the increase or
decrease of these particular land-cover classes through time.
Using the thematic maps derived for the northern and southern
agricultural developments at La Costa de Hermosillo, we created
change-detection matrices and change maps between different
years (Coppin et al., 2004; Lu et al., 2004; Shalaby and Tateishi,
2007; Singh, 1989). To obtain these results, we used two classi-
cations at a time to assess where the change occurred (spatial
representation of the change), and what had changed. In total, four
change-detection maps and matrices were generated for the
following pairs of years: 1988e1993, 1993e1998, 1998e2004 and
2004e2009.
Using the change-detection maps, we derived a series of land-
scape metrics per change class (area occupied by each change type
and change trend) to help us understand how these landscapes
have changed and what the classes were that changed the most
through time.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Classication accuracy
The overall accuracy of our classications was higher than 84%
for all the years. The user and producer accuracy (Story, 1986),
obtained for different vegetation cover classes in each of our the-
matic maps, varied between 70e100% and 57e100%, respectively
(Table 3). We focused on user accuracy for the purpose of this study
because it signies how well the thematic map represents land
cover. Some of the confusion among several of the land-cover
classes is likely because of similarities in their spectral
characteristics.
Mesquite shrublands were sometimes confused with desert
shrubland because of overlapping species and similarities in
response to monsoon rains. Mesquite shrublands were sometimes
confused with active agricultural elds, especially elds with
irregular orchards (observed during our accuracy assessment) that
might possibly have a similar spectral response as the mesquite
trees (according to the classier). Most other land-cover classes
were classied correctly, primarily because of their unique
phenological, biophysical and topographic characteristics that
easily differentiated them from other land-cover classes. For
example, the succulent-stemmed shrublands were identied by
unique components related to elevation and species composition
and active agricultural elds were accurate because the variables
captured phenological change; this was expected because irrigated
crops are not dependent on precipitation to conduct biological
activity.
Because of the lack of high resolution imagery, the vegetation
classication products from 1993 to 1988 were derived from
training datasets extracted fromlater or earlier images. For some of
the classes, training points from 1998 were utilized when limited
spectral variation was observed among the images during and after
Table 3
Summary of the user, producer, Kappa and overall accuracies for the CART-based
vegetation classication for 1998, 2004 and 2009.
Class 1998 2004 2009 1998e2009
User Producer User Producer User Producer Average
Active agriculture 1.00 0.92 0.86 0.77 0.89 0.79 0.87
Fallow elds 0.86 0.81 0.77 0.87 0.83 0.91 0.84
Aquaculture 0.94 1.00 0.94 0.97 1.00 0.95 0.97
Barren/scarce
vegetation
0.74 0.79 0.77 0.87 0.80 0.85 0.80
Desert shrubland 0.83 0.63 0.80 0.61 0.77 0.57 0.70
Succulent
Shrublands
0.94 1.00 0.89 0.94 0.94 0.97 0.95
Estuary/water 0.91 0.94 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.00 0.96
Halophyte/
coastal
vegetation
0.80 0.90 0.74 0.68 0.77 0.93 0.81
Mesquite
shrublands
0.74 0.84 0.71 0.86 0.74 0.96 0.81
Urban areas 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.97 1.00 0.95 0.97
Overall accuracy 87.14 84 87.43
Kappa 0.86 0.82 0.86
J.R. Romo-Leon et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 106 (2014) 27e35 30
the monsoon for those years. For this reason, we expect them to
have similar accuracies to the ones achieved in the rest of our
classications.
3.2. Landscape changes (1988e2009)
As expected, the most signicant events regarding land-cover
change and distribution found at La Costa de Hermosillo took
place in the two main agricultural areas (northern and southern
developments), where high rates of human modication to the
landscape occurred.
Based on our newly derived thematic maps, we were able to
differentiate clear trends, indicating that between 1988 and 2009,
the active and fallow agricultural areas have been decreasing, and
barren soil and desert shrublands have been increasing (Fig. 3),
which is expected after agricultural abandonment (Castellanos
et al., 2005). Land-cover transitions from agricultural areas to
other land-cover types are most likely related to wasteful water use
by stakeholders, a lack of water regulation policies (Halvorson et al.,
2003), and salinization of soils (Henderson, 1965) that results in the
reduction of suitable areas for crop cultivation.
Another important change occurring at La Costa de Hermosillo
during this 22 year period was the establishment of aquaculture
farms for the production of shrimp, oysters and other protable
species (Martinez-Cordova and Martinez-Porchas, 2006; Pez-
Osuna et al., 2003). Although the actual sustainability of these
practices has been discussed in the past (Pez-Osuna et al., 2003),
they have increased rapidly in Sonora since the late 1980s and early
1990s (Cruz-Torres, 2000), with large, coastal areas converted from
native vegetation to aquaculture farms. The main land use/cover
change regarding these practices is the transition from halophytic
vegetation (salt resistant) to aquaculture farms.
We found that land-cover classes such as barren soil and desert
shrubland have increased with the decrease of agricultural areas,
while other classes, such as succulent-stemmed and mesquite
shrublands, were more stable through time (Fig. 3). Considering the
most important land-cover changes identied and the evidence
collected from the literature and expert sources (Castellanos et al.,
2005; Halvorson et al., 2003), we found that the changes portrayed
by the maps reect the progression of land-cover dynamics of the
region. Because our goal was to improve our ability to differentiate
and increase our understanding regarding land-cover changes
introduced by human practices, we consequently focused the rest
of our analyses on the main trends in the actively changing agri-
cultural areas.
3.3. Change in agriculture at La Costa de Hermosillo
3.3.1. Accuracy assessment: northern and southern agricultural
developments
Using the thematic maps, we created new maps by grouping
together all classes except active agriculture and fallow elds,
which result in three total classes, to conduct accuracy assessments.
Our results yielded similar accuracies for the northern and south-
ern agricultural developments (KAPPA statistic ranging from 0.8 to
0.9 for all years) when compared with the results obtained for the
previous landscape classications for the entire La Costa de Her-
mosillo area. In all our land-cover maps, the class denominated
Other was an aggregation of desert shrubland, vegetation and
barren soil classes.
3.3.2. Test for changes in active agriculture areas
Our classication results had high levels of accuracy by ac-
counting for phenological changes in the different land-cover
types. We proceeded to generate a post-classication change-
detection analysis for abandonment trends at La Costa de Hermo-
sillo. To assess overall changes in the most representatively active
agricultural areas, we used the thematic maps extracted from the
northern and southern agricultural eld developments (Fig. 4). For
both agricultural developments, our results showed a sharp
decrease between 1988 and 2009 in the area occupied by active
agriculture. The reductions in active agriculture were from 12,004
to 3512 ha in the northern area and from96,730 to 52,466 ha in the
southern development (Fig. 5). Each of the generated products
contained nine potential changes from one land-cover type to
another, which allowed us to determine where changes occurred
between active agriculture, fallow and other land-cover types and
what actually changed. We assumed that increases in the other
category represent the area that was abandoned during the period
of time between each classication.
Because the imagery used for the classications was taken from
similar periods in each of the years and the errors of miss-
registration were low (Carmel et al., 2001), the sources of error in
the change detection were mostly because of misclassications.
Fig. 3. Total areas for all land-cover types for 1988, 1993, 1998, 2004 and 2009 at La Costa de Hermosillo. This gure shows the variation in land-cover types through time.
J.R. Romo-Leon et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 106 (2014) 27e35 31
These Type I (erroneous classication as no change) and Type II
(erroneous classication as change) errors are common in post-
classication techniques (Hall et al., 1991; Villarreal et al., 2012).
It is generally accepted that the accuracy of the change maps is
equal to the product of the two accuracies of the classications used
for the years in question.
Thematic spatial representations of land-cover change charac-
terized the highly dynamic transformations with regard to agri-
cultural vegetation cover and its changes through time in the
northern agricultural site (Fig. 6a). These spatial representations
showed the location and types of changes occurring in specic
areas. When analyzing net agricultural change at La Costa de Her-
mosillo (new or re-opened areas for agriculture less the areas
converted from agriculture to other land-cover types), we found
that there has been a general decrease in agriculture in every
period analyzed (Fig. 6b). Changes in agriculture present a
continuing decrease (when compared to the 1988e1993 period) in
areas that were being transformed to other land-cover types.
Table 4 provides an overview of the changes between 1988, 1993,
1998, 2004 and 2009 for active agriculture, fallow and other land-
cover types for both agricultural developments.
We were able to capture differences in rates of change between
periods and sites. For the northern agricultural development,
higher rates of change were found among the land-cover types
during the rst two periods analyzed. This was coincidental and
apparently related to the enforcement of water-use regulation
policies that were implemented by the Mexican government in the
mid-1970s (Halvorson et al., 2003). The decrease in crop production
is also attributed to the salinization of soils (Castellanos et al., 2005;
Rangel Medina et al., 2002). During the 1980s, larger amounts of
land dedicated to agriculture were converted to non-agriculture
cover types compared with more recent years. Additionally, it is
important to note that even if new areas were opened for agricul-
ture in every period, agricultural land transitions to other non-
agricultural cover types always represented a larger area.
Change detection thematic maps for the southern agricultural
development depicted the locations and types of change occurring
at particular time intervals in this study (Fig. 7a). Similar to the
northern agricultural development, the general trajectory of the
southern (and main) agricultural development indicates a decrease
in the amount of area used for active agriculture. However, the time
when the most agricultural change (abandonment) occurred is
different in this area (Fig. 7b), with the greatest amount of change
Fig. 4. Example maps of the simplied land-cover class distributions from 1988 to 2009, including the northern (left) and southern (right) agriculture developments. A general
decrease in fallow and active agriculture is observed for the last two decades (see also Figs. 3 and 5).
Fig. 5. Area extents for aggregated land-cover types from 1988, 1993, 1998, 2004 and
2009 at the a) northern agricultural development (total area of 35,664 ha) and b) the
southern agricultural development (total area of 166,785 ha). A decrease in agricultural
areas can be observed at both developments.
J.R. Romo-Leon et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 106 (2014) 27e35 32
occurring during the rst (1988e1993) and the last (2004e2009)
periods. The lowrates of change in the two middle periods could be
the result of efforts by land owners and the government to main-
tain agricultural productivity.
We attribute La Costa de Hermosillo land-use change trends in
agricultural development to the salinization of water sources and
strict water regulations implemented by the Mexican government.
Further social and economic analyses will be needed to fully un-
derstand such patterns; however, geographically explicit inputs,
such as those developed in our study, can be used as critical inputs
for expert decision making.
4. Conclusions
The use of the CART/See5-based vegetation type modeling
approach to classify Landsat TM datasets allowed us to generate
detailed thematic maps to analyze the landscape dynamics in an
arid agro-ecosystem. For our study site in La Costa de Hermosillo,
the remotely sensed observations and changes in the landscape
fromone period to another reect the human impact that this agro-
ecosystem has been exposed to during the last 22 years. As a
consequence of the regulation of water use, soil degradation and
other economic factors such as the development of aquaculture, La
Costa de Hermosillo underwent a rapid modication in land cover/
land use.
The most conspicuous change that we were able to showfor the
region was the progressive abandonment of agricultural elds.
Therefore, our study can help document the vulnerability of this
arid agro-ecosystem to anthropogenic change. As expected, the
change detection maps were able to show the high rates of change
from agriculture to other types of vegetation (Figs. 6b and 7b).
Those changes can be interpreted as either the abandonment of
agricultural elds or a long period without human use of the
terrain.
In our case study, we were able to provide inputs to document
possible ecological pathways and decision support policies that
could intervene at the degraded sites. The abandonment of agri-
cultural elds in this arid ecosystem opens the possibility to mul-
tiple scenarios for the use of the proposed techniques. Restoration
policies and efforts fromgovernment agencies and NGOs, as well as
the resilience and succession rate in each particular eld, will
dictate the pace of recovery and if the vegetation communities will
reach a new steady state (Briske et al., 2005; Westoby et al., 1989).
Our analysis provides ecologically accurate and spatially explicit
support to such efforts and policies.
Laws, regulation, monitoring and research will be needed from
governmental agencies and public institutions (universities,
research centers and non-governmental organizations) to deter-
mine the best course of action to promote the recovery of arid agro-
ecosystems.
By establishing the framework proposed in this research, it is
possible to develop cost-effective monitoring, analysis and assess-
ment of highly degraded landscapes. Our land-cover change-
detection analysis demonstrates that the high level of accuracy
achieved by our classications might be adequate for analyzing
land-cover trends at the landscape level in diverse agro-ecosystems
located in arid environments.
In this work, we propose a framework to describe the landscape
composition based on the mapping of features of interest. However,
more analysis will be required to assess the changes in actual
landscape conguration (probability of adjacency and contagion)
dynamics (Turner et al., 2001) and analyze the spatial arrangement
of land-cover types (ONeill et al., 1988; Turner et al., 2001). Further
analysis of accurate land-cover thematic maps using fragmentation
statistics to analyze conguration dynamics will help to further
explain land-cover changes and community succession and aid in
the analysis of the progression (in time) of land-cover class
relationships.
La Costa de Hermosillo, even though it encompasses a highly
dynamic and impacted ecosystem, is only one among many similar
locations worldwide that requires careful planning and monitoring
Fig. 6. a) Map of the progressive land-cover change detection at the northern agri-
culture development. Land-cover conversions and changes are visible for active agri-
culture (AA), fallowelds (FF) and other land-cover types (O). b) The net change in area
from agriculture to other land-cover types (abandonment minus new agricultural
areas) from one year to the next period approximately 5 years later.
Table 4
Summary of land-cover changes during four time intervals at the northern and
southern agricultural developments at La Costa de Hermosillo. The uctuation
among land-cover classes during the periods is given in hectares.
Northern Agricultural Development
1988-1993
(Ha)
1993-1998
(Ha)
1998-2004
(Ha)
2004-2009
(Ha)
Active to Fallow 558 249 123 206
Fallow to Active 780 251 187 149
Other to Fallow 1833 1493 1493 1226
Fallow to Other 4718 2803 2711 966
Other to Active 747 799 990 273
Active to Other 2365 1287 949 941
Southern Agricultural Development
1988-1993
(Ha)
1993-1998
(Ha)
1998-2004
(Ha)
2004-2009
(Ha)
Active to Fallow 5214 5967 6237 2569
Fallow to Active 1240 4870 3709 3125
Other to Fallow 9604 16269 14180 10678
Fallow to Other 27699 15465 17185 22748
Other to Active 3602 5022 4933 3904
Active to Other 9078 8042 5652 6601
J.R. Romo-Leon et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 106 (2014) 27e35 33
to avoid further degradation of the natural capital. Implementation
of spatially explicit models and monitoring practices to analyze
land-cover dynamics in deforested landscapes in arid agro-
ecosystems are necessary to determine the allocation of efforts
required to restore highly degraded environments to sustainability.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the support for this research provided
by the Arizona Remote Sensing Center, University of Arizona, Tuc-
son, AZ, USA. JRRL wishes to acknowledge support from CONACYT
in the form of a PhD scholarship and to recognize the assistance
with the eld work provided by the CONAFOR-CONACYT grant
(10644) to AECV. Landsat TM data were obtained through the on-
line USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Earth
Explorer website http://edcsns17.cr.usgs.gov/NewEarthExplorer.
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