CDL Core Files 2014/2015 Index

Oil Exploration Case AFF

Oil Exploration Affirmative
Oil Exploration Affirmative 1
Oil Exploration 1AC [1/11]........................................................................................................ 2
Oil Exploration 1AC [2/11]....................................................................................................... 3
Oil Exploration 1AC [3/11]....................................................................................................... 4
Oil Exploration 1AC [4/11].......................................................................................................5
Oil Exploration 1AC [5/11]....................................................................................................... 6
Oil Exploration 1AC [6/11]....................................................................................................... 7
Oil Exploration 1AC [7/11]....................................................................................................... 8
Oil Exploration 1AC [8/11]....................................................................................................... 9
Oil Exploration 1AC [9/11]..................................................................................................... 10
Oil Exploration 1AC [10/11].................................................................................................... 11
Oil Exploration 1AC [11/11]..................................................................................................... 12
2AC Inheren!" A/# $1 %&ot Inherent' [1/1].........................................................................13
2AC (ar)* + Oil ,epen-ene" A/# $1 + %O.EC /e*ilient' [1/1]..........................................14
2AC (ar)* + Oil ,epen-ene" A/# $2 + %Ener0! &ot 1e!' [1/1].........................................15
2AC (ar)* + Oil ,epen-ene" A/# $3 + %(e0e)on! ,oe*n2t 3ol4e 5ar' [1/1]..................16
2AC (ar)* + Eono)!" A/# $1 + %Eono)! 6ro7in0 &o7' [1/1].......................................17
2AC (ar)* + Eono)!" A/# $2 + %,oe*n2t 3ol4e 6ro7th' [1/1]..........................................18
2AC (ar)* + Eono)!" A/# $3 + %&o I)pat' [1/1]............................................................19
2AC 3ol4en!" A/# $1 + %#ehnolo0ial (8r-le*' [1/1]........................................................20
2AC 3ol4en!" A/# $2 + %&o 9ar:et A-aption' [1/1]............................................................21
2AC 3ol4en!" A/# $3 + %Can2t /e;ine' [1/1].........................................................................22
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [1/11]
Contention One is Inherency:
1. Despite recent advances !" oil exploration and development capa#ilities lag
behind $lo#al competitors
%erry &'1(
[9ar:. .ro;e**or o; Eono)i* at the <ni4er*it! o; 9ihi0an + =lint. %5orl-2* ,epen-ene on .er*ian 68l; Oil'
10/1/13 http"//777.aei.or0/artile/eono)i*/7orl-*>-epen-ene>on>per*ian>08l;>oil>ant>?e>i0nore-]
In *pite o; the ?oo) in <.3. oil>*hale pro-8tion@ the 7orl- ha* ?eo)e )ore reliant on a han-;8l o; 68l;
oil pro-8er* 7ho*e re*o8re* are )ore *trethe- than at an! ti)e *ine the 1970*. 3o itA* no *8rpri*e that
the prie o; r8-e oil i* a?o4e B100 a ?arrel@ an- that the a4era0e prie o; 0a*oline in the <nite- 3tate* ha*
exee-e- B3 a 0allon ;or the pa*t 1@000 on*e8ti4e -a!*.C In A808*t@ aor-in0 to the International
Ener0! A0en!@ 3a8-i Ara?ia an- t7o other 68l; pro-8er* )et a near>reor- 17.1D o; 7orl- oil -e)an-.C
=or the <.3.@ 7hih i* *till the 7orl-A* lar0e*t oil i)porter@ the E8e*tion i* 7hether 68l; pro-8er* ha4e
eno80h *pare apait! to :eep p8)pin0 at hi0h le4el* F or rai*e pro-8tion to o)pen*ate ;or lo**e*
el*e7here in the e4ent o; a *8--en -i*r8ption li:e the one that o8rre- in 2005 a* a re*8lt o; (8rriane
1atrina in the 68l; o; 9exio.C 3:!>(i0h 6a* .rie*C 3ho8l- a *erio8* 8to;; in oil pro-8tion o8r
an!7here in the 7orl-@ the prie o; 0a*oline an- other petrole8) pro-8t* o8l- *:!ro:et in the <.3.C
3a8-i Ara?ia i* alrea-! the *in0le lar0e*t *8pplier to )an! o; the lar0e*t i)portin0 o8ntrie* li:e China
an- Gapan@ ?rin0in0 on ne7 pro-8tion to replae -elinin0 *8pplie* ;ro) Hi?!a@ Iran an- IeneJ8ela.C In
;at@ 3a8-i Ara?ia i* no7 ta:in0 in )ore than B1 ?illion a -a! in oil export re4en8e*.C =or the <nite-
3tate*@ the 4er! i)portant ta*: o; ra;tin0 a *en*i?le an- 4ia?le ener0! poli! F one that ra)p* 8p oil an-
0a* pro-8tion F annot ?e i0nore-. 5itho8t -ei*i4e ation to open 8p ne7 area* to -rillin0 ;or oil an-
0a*@ ?oth on lan- an- o;;*hore@ there i* a real -an0er that the -ri4e to ahie4e ener0! *e8rit! 7ill ?e
*toppe- in it* tra:* an- *erio8* har) o8l- ?e -one to o8r eono)!.C 3o itA* ti)e to pa! attention F
a0ain F to the i)portane o; ha4in0 a ?alane- )ix o; ener0! *o8re*. #i)e to reo0niJe that lean>oal
tehnolo0ie* an- n8lear po7er help to po7er o8r eono)!. #i)e to re)e)?er that the a4aila?ilit! o;
relia?le an- a;;or-a?le ener0! i* r8ial to <.3. )an8;at8rin0 an- the reation o; Ko?*.C (o7 =a*t@ (o7
CheapLC #he i**8e i* not a hoie ?et7een oil an- 0a* an- alternati4e* ?8t@ rather@ 7hat o)?ination an
?e ra)pe- 8p the ;a*te*t at the lo7e*t po**i?le o*t 8*in0 a4aila?le tehnolo0!.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [&/11]
&. Despite coastal discoveries in the stat)s *)o $overnment re$)lations still
prohi#it exploration and development.
+ines &'1,
[9ihael@ A)erian Ko8rnali*t@ China ?8rea8 hie; ;or #he &e7 Mor: #i)e* %<.3. 9o4e* #o7ar- Atlanti Oil
Exploration@ 3tirrin0 ,e?ate O4er 3ea Hi;e' =e?r8ar! 27@ 2014 http"//777.n!ti)e*.o)/2014/02/28/8*/8*>)o4e*>
to7ar->atlanti>oil>exploration>*tirrin0>-e?ate>o4er>*ea>li;e.ht)lLNrO1]
#he Interior ,epart)ent opene- the -oor on #h8r*-a! to the ;ir*t *earhe* in -ea-e* ;or oil an- 0a* o;;
the Atlanti oa*t@ reo))en-in0 that 8n-er*ea *ei*)i *8r4e!* proee-@ tho80h 7ith a ho*t o;
*a;e08ar-* to *hiel- )arine li;e ;ro) )8h o; their i)pat.C #he reo))en-ation i* li:el! to ?e a-opte-
a;ter a perio- o; p8?li o))ent an- o4er o?Ketion* ?! en4iron)ental ati4i*t* 7ho *a! it 7ill ?e r8ino8*
;or the li)ate an- *ea li;e ali:e.C #he A)erian .etrole8) In*tit8te alle- the reo))en-ation a ritial
*tep to7ar- ?ol*terin0 the nation2* ener0! *e8rit!@ pre-itin0 that oil an- 0a* pro-8tion in the re0ion
o8l- reate 280@000 ne7 Ko?* an- 0enerate B195 ?illion in pri4ate in4e*t)ent.C Ati4i*t* 7ere li4i-.
Allo7in0 exploration %o8l- ?e a -eath *entene ;or )an! )arine )a))al*@ an- i* nee-le**l! t8rnin0 the
Atlanti Oean into a ?la*t Jone@' GaE8eline 3a4itJ@ a 4ie pre*i-ent at the on*er4ation 0ro8p Oeana@
*ai- in a *tate)ent on #h8r*-a!.C Oeana an- other 0ro8p* ha4e a)pai0ne- ;or )onth* a0ain*t the
Atlanti *8r4e! plan*@ itin0 Interior ,epart)ent al8lation* that the inten*e noi*e o; *ei*)i exploration
o8l- :ill an- inK8re tho8*an-* o; -olphin* an- 7hale*. C P8t 7hile the a**e**)ent relea*e- on #h8r*-a!
repeat* tho*e e*ti)ate*@ it al*o lar0el! -i*)i**e* the)@ *tatin0 that the! e)plo! )8ltiple 7or*t>a*e
*enario* an- i0nore )ea*8re* ?! h8)an* an- the )a))al* the)*el4e* to a4oi- har).C 9an! )arine
*ienti*t* *a! the e*ti)ate* o; -eath an- inK8r! are at ?e*t *erio8*l! in;late-. %#here2* no ar08)ent that
*o)e o; the*e *o8n-* an har) ani)al*@ ?8t it2* ?lo7n o8t o; proportion@' Arth8r &. .opper@ 7ho hea-*
the <ni4er*it! o; 9ar!lan-2* la?orator! o; aE8ati ?ioao8*ti*@ *ai- in an inter4ie7. %It2* the =lipper
*!n-ro)e@ or Q=ree 5ill!.2 'C (o7 the noi*e a;;et* *ea )a))al*2 ?eha4ior in the lon0 ter) F an i**8e
a?o8t 7hih little i* :no7n F i* a )8h 0reater onern@ he *ai-.C A ;or)al -ei*ion to proee- 7ith
*8r4e!* 7o8l- reopen a *7ath o;; the Ea*t Coa*t *trethin0 ;ro) ,ela7are to Cape Cana4eral@ =la.@ that
ha* ?een lo*e- to petrole8) exploration *ine the earl! 1980*.C At8al -rillin0 o; te*t 7ell* o8l- not
?e0in 8ntil a 5hite (o8*e ?an on pro-8tion in the Atlanti expire* in 2017@ an- e4en then@ onl! a;ter the
0o4ern)ent a0ree* to lea*e oean trat* to oil o)panie*@ an i**8e o;;iial* ha4e ?arel! ?e08n to *t8-!.C
#he petrole8) in-8*tr! ha* *8n: 51 7ell* o;; the Ea*t Coa*t F none o; the) *8e**;8l eno80h to ?e0in
pro-8tion F in -ea-e* pa*t. P8t the Interior ,epart)ent *ai- in 2011 that 3.3 ?illion ?arrel* o;
reo4era?le oil an- 312 trillion 8?i ;eet o; nat8ral 0a* o8l- lie in the exploration area@ an- nine
o)panie* ha4e alrea-! applie- ;or per)it* to ?e0in *8r4e!*.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [(/11]
Contention -.o is /arms: ")#point A is "cenario One: Oil Dependence.
1. In the stat)s *)o the Or$ani0ation of the %etrole)m Exportin$ Co)ntries retains
the a#ility to ri$ the mar1et in .ays that )ndermine !" interests. -he plan
reverses this and ca)ses !" ener$y leadership.
2lac1.ill and O3")llivan &'1,
[/o?ert + 1i**in0er 3enior =ello7 in <3 =orei0n .oli!. An- 9e0han + .ro;e**or o; I/ at (ar4ar-. %A)eria2* Ener0!
E-0e" #he 6eopolitial Con*eE8ene* o; the 3hale /e4ol8tion' Foreign Affairs@ April 2014. A4aila?le 4ia Hexi*>&exi*]
#he )o*t -ra)ati po**i?le 0eopolitial on*eE8ene o; the &orth A)erian ener0! ?oo) i* that the
inrea*e in <.3. an- Cana-ian oil pro-8tion o8l- -i*r8pt the 0lo?al prie o; oil >> 7hih o8l- ;all ?! 20
perent or )ore. #o-a!@ the prie o; oil i* -eter)ine- lar0el! ?! the Or0aniJation o; the .etrole8)
Exportin0 Co8ntrie*@ 7hih re08late* pro-8tion le4el* a)on0 it* )e)?er *tate*. 5hen there are
8nexpete- pro-8tion -i*r8ption*@ O.EC o8ntrie* Rpri)aril! 3a8-i Ara?iaS tr! to *ta?iliJe prie* ?!
ra)pin0 8p their pro-8tion@ 7hih re-8e* the 0lo?al a)o8nt o; *pare pro-8tion apait!. 5hen *pare
apait! ;all* ?elo7 t7o )illion ?arrel* per -a!@ the )ar:et 0et* Kitter!@ an- oil prie* ten- to *pi:e
8p7ar-. 5hen the )ar:et *ee* *pare apait! ri*e a?o4e ro80hl! *ix )illion ?arrel* a -a!@ prie* ten- to
;all. =or the pa*t ;i4e !ear* or *o@ O.EC2* )e)?er* ha4e atte)pte- to ?alane the nee- to ;ill their p8?li
o;;er* 7ith the nee- to *8ppl! eno80h oil to :eep the 0lo?al eono)! h8))in0@ an- the! ha4e )ana0e-
to :eep the prie o; oil at aro8n- B90 to B110 per ?arrel.C A* a--itional &orth A)erian oil ;loo-* the
)ar:et@ O.EC2* a?ilit! to ontrol prie* 7ill ?e hallen0e-. Aor-in0 to proKetion* ;ro) the <.3. Ener0!
In;or)ation A-)ini*tration@ ?et7een 2012 an- 2020@ the <nite- 3tate* i* expete- to pro-8e )ore than
three )illion ?arrel* o; ne7 petrole8) an- other liE8i- ;8el* eah -a!@ )ainl! ;ro) li0ht ti0ht oil. #he*e
ne7 4ol8)e*@ pl8* ne7 *8pplie* o)in0 on line ;ro) IraE an- el*e7here@ o8l- a8*e a 0l8t in *8ppl!@
7hih 7o8l- p8*h prie* -o7n >> e*peiall! a* 0lo?al oil -e)an- *hrin:* -8e to i)pro4e- e;;iien! or
*lo7er eono)i 0ro7th. In that e4ent@ O.EC o8l- ha4e a har- ti)e )aintainin0 -i*ipline a)on0 it*
)e)?er*@ ;e7 o; 7hih are 7illin0 to 8r? their oil pro-8tion in the ;ae o; ?8r0eonin0 *oial -e)an-*
an- politial 8nertaint!. .er*i*tentl! lo7er prie* 7o8l- reate *hort;all* in the re4en8e* the! nee- to
;8n- their expen-it8re*.C I; oil prie* ;all an- *ta! lo7@ e4er! 0o4ern)ent in the 7orl- that relie* on
h!-roar?on re4en8e* 7ill ;in- it*el; 8n-er *tre**. Co8ntrie* ;eelin0 the pinh 7ill inl8-e In-one*ia an-
Iietna) in A*iaT 1aJa:h*tan an- /8**ia in E8ra*iaT Colo)?ia@ 9exio@ an- IeneJ8ela in Hatin A)eriaT
An0ola an- &i0eria in A;riaT an- Iran@ IraE@ an- 3a8-i Ara?ia in the 9i--le Ea*t. #he*e o8ntrie*2
a?ilitie* to en-8re *8h ;i*al *et?a:* 4ar! an- 7o8l- -epen- in part on ho7 lon0 lo7 prie* la*te-. E4en
7ith a )ore )o-erate -rop in prie*@ the inrea*e- 4ol8)e an- -i4er*it! o; the oil *8ppl! 7o8l- ?ene;it
ener0! on*8)er* 7orl-7i-e. Co8ntrie* that li:e to 8*e their ener0! *8pplie* ;or ;orei0n poli! p8rpo*e*
>> 8*8all! in 7a!* that r8n o8nter to <.3. intere*t* >> 7ill *ee their in;l8ene *hrin:.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [,/11]
&. -he alternative to ener$y leadership is ener$y dependence .hich )ndermines
he$emony. -he plan achieves independence #)t does not ca)se isolationism.
2lac1.ill and O3")llivan &'1,
[/o?ert + 1i**in0er 3enior =ello7 in <3 =orei0n .oli!. An- 9e0han + .ro;e**or o; I/ at (ar4ar-. %A)eria2* Ener0!
E-0e" #he 6eopolitial Con*eE8ene* o; the 3hale /e4ol8tion' Foreign Affairs@ April 2014. A4aila?le 4ia Hexi*>&exi*]
#he *prea- o; *hale tehnolo0! aro** the 0lo?e 7ill ?e 0oo- ne7* ;or the li)ate.C A -i)ini*he- reliane
on ener0! i)port* *ho8l- not ?e on;8*e- 7ith ;8ll ener0! in-epen-ene. P8t the <.3. ener0! 7in-;all
*ho8l- help p8t to re*t -elini*t thin:in0 a?o8t the <nite- 3tate*. 9oreo4er@ the en- o; <.3. -epen-ene
on o4er*ea* ener0! *8pplie* >> an- on the pro-8er o8ntrie* 7ith 7hih 5a*hin0ton ha* o;ten ha-
pri:l! relation* >> 7ill 0rant the <nite- 3tate* a 0reater -e0ree o; ;ree-o) in p8r*8in0 it* 0ran- *trate0!.
P8t the <nite- 3tate* 7ill re)ain ;ir)l! lin:e- to 0lo?aliJe- ener0! )ar:et*. An! -ra)ati -i*r8ption o;
the 0lo?al oil *8ppl!@ ;or in*tane@ 7o8l- *till a;;et the prie at the p8)p in the <nite- 3tate* an- -erail
0ro7th. 5a*hin0ton 7ill there;ore )aintain an intere*t in pre*er4in0 the *ta?ilit! o; international
)ar:et*. &o7here i* that tr8er than in the 9i--le Ea*t@ 7here 4ital <.3. intere*t* >> in pre4entin0
terrori*)@ o8nterin0 n8lear proli;eration@ an- pro)otin0 re0ional *e8rit! to protet allie* *8h a*
I*rael an- en*8re the ;lo7 o; ener0! >> 7ill en-8re. 3o 7ill the nee- to polie the 0lo?al o))on*@ *8h a*
the )aKor *ea>lane* thro80h 7hih tra-e in ener0! an- other 0oo-* ;lo7*.C C #he*e tr8th* re)ain poorl!
8n-er*too-@ ho7e4er. <.3. poli!)a:er* nee- to *tart explainin0 to ?oth -o)e*ti an- ;orei0n a8-iene*
that altho80h the ener0! lan-*ape i* han0in0@ <.3. national intere*t* are not. &e7;o8n- oil an- 0a* 7ill
not a8*e 5a*hin0ton to -i*en0a0e ;ro) the 7orl-. #o ?e *8re@ the <nite- 3tate* 7ill re)ain@ ?! al)o*t
an! )ea*8re@ the )o*t po7er;8l o8ntr! on the planet. Met it 7ill ne4er ?e a?le to in*8late it*el; ;ro)
*ho:* to the 0lo?al eono)!@ an- *o it 7ill re)ain -eepl! in4ol4e- o4er*ea*. #hi* )e**a0e reE8ire*
parti8lar e)pha*i* in the 9i--le Ea*t@ 0i4en 5a*hin0ton2* exit ;ro) A;0hani*tan an- IraE an- it*
anno8ne- pi4ot to7ar- A*ia.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [4/11]
(. /e$emony is the primary ca)se of lastin$ $lo#al peace 5 its decline ris1s $reat
po.er .ar
6ie#er &'1,
[/o?ert G. Hie?er i* .ro;e**or o; 6o4ern)ent an- International A;;air* at 6eor0eto7n <ni4er*it!. (e i* the a8thor or
e-itor o; 16 ?oo:* on international relation* an- <3 ;orei0n poli!. %#he /i*e o; the P/IC3 an- A)erian .ri)a!@'
International Politics@ 9arh 2014. A4aila?le 4ia #U=]
,e;en*e an- ;orei0n poli! are an attrati4e tar0et ;or ?8-0et re-8tion* ?ea8*e o; the lar0e *8)* o;
)one! in4ol4e- an- ?ea8*e alternati4e* *8h a* tax an- entitle)ent re;or)* are politiall! -i;;i8lt or
8ntena?le@ ?8t there i* a *trate0i o*t to the*e 8t*. A)erian en0a0e)ent an- ;orei0n poli!
o))it)ent* 8n-erpin re0ional *ta?ilit!. P! an- lar0e@ ?oth in pratial ter)* an- a* a**e**e- ?!
international relation* theori*t* *8h a* 1in-le?er0er an- 6ilpin@ A)erian pri)a! )iti0ate* re0ional
*e8rit! -ile))a*. It -eter* potential a-4er*arie* an- pro4i-e* rea**8rane to ;rien-* an- allie*. <3
ation*@ ?8-0et hoie* an- -elarator! poliie* ha4e a palpa?le i)pat on other*@ an- in-iation* o;
retrenh)ent an- *trate0i 7ith-ra7al an 8n-er)ine A)eria2* re-i?ilit!. #he potential on*eE8ene*
*ho8l- not ?e 8n-ere*ti)ate-. #he*e inl8-e 0reater re0ional in*ta?ilit!@ inenti4e* ;or re4i*ioni*t *tate*
to ?e )ore ri*: tolerant@ an- inrea*e- li:elihoo- o; n8lear proli;eration a)on0 allie* an- other* 7ho
onl8-e that the <3 n8lear 8)?rella an no lon0er ?e relie- 8pon. =or exa)ple@ E4an P. 9ont0o)er!
R2013S o; the Center ;or 3trate0i an- P8-0etar! Anal!*i* a8tion* that 8nle** A)eria 8n-erta:e*
*i0ni;iant a-aptation to it* )ilitar! apa?ilitie* an- *trate0ie*@ it* pre4io8*l! 8n)athe- a?ilit! to proKet
)ilitar! po7er a?roa- ri*:* ?eo)in0 48lnera?le a* the re*8lt o; the proli;eration o; anti>ae** an- area>
-enial 7eapon* an- prei*ion08i-e- )8nition*. In *8)@ the onte)porar! international or-er )a! 7ell
?e )ore )8ltipolar@ in the *en*e o; the -i;;8*ion o; po7er@ e*peiall! in the eono)i real)@ !et at lea*t
;or no7@ the <nite- 3tate* *till retain* 8niE8e apa?ilitie* that no other ator po**e**e*. #hi* re)ain* the
a*e@ e4en in the eono)i real)@ 7here + ;or exa)ple + <3 )onetar! a8thoritie* an- the =e-eral
/e*er4e pla!e- an in-i*pen*a?le role in )iti0atin0 the 7orl-7i-e i)pat o; the 0lo?al ;inanial ri*i* o;
2007+2008 + an- ontin8e to -o *o. #h8*@ in a 7orl- in 7hih po7er ha* -i;;8*e- )ore 7i-el!@ ?8t in
7hih e)er0in0 po7er* are pri)aril! atin0 a* ;ree ri-er*@ 7hile tra-itional allie* RE8rope an- GapanS
ha4e not ?een apa?le o; pa!in0 0reater role* in *8*tainin0 international ooperation@ A)erian
retrenh)ent an- or politial paral!*i* at ho)e@ 7o8l- ?e li:el! not onl! to 7ea:en international or-er@
?8t 8lti)atel! to a-4er*el! a;;et <3 national *e8rit! an- the <nite- 3tate* it*el;.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [7/11]
"cenario -.o is ")#point 2: Economic 8ro.th.
1. -he economy is stalling in the stat)s *)o. -he plan creates a ne. sector of
economic $ro.th .hich solves str)ct)ral economic #arriers.
9ills &'1&
[9ar:. Poar- o; ,iretor* at the 9ar*hall In*tit8te at A-4i*or! Co8nil to the 9Cor)i: 3hool o; En0ineerin0 at
&orth7e*tern. %Co8l- the <nite- 3tate* ?eo)e the 5orl-2* Ener0!>Export .o7erho8*eL' G8l! 2012
http"//777.)anhattan>in*tit8te.or0/p-;/pre**Nrelea*eNp0iN01.p-;]
<nlea*hin0 20 ?illion ?arrel* o; 8)8lati4e oil ;ro) Ala*:a2* A&5/ an- *o)e 8rrentl! o;;>li)it* re0ion*
o; the o8ter ontinental *hel; 7o8l- ?rin0 o4er B1 trillion o; net ?ene;it* to the <.3. eono)!. 36C In
0eneral@ ?oth hi*tor! an- reent anal!*e* *ho7 that ;or e4er! ?illion ?arrel* o; oil pro-8e- Ror oil>
eE8i4alent in nat8ral 0a*@ an- *i)ilar ran0e ;or oalS@ there are a?o8t B75 ?illion in ?roa- eono)i
?ene;it*. 37C A n8)?er o; reent *t8-ie* ha4e explore- the i)pliation* o; the ne7 h!-roar?on
traKetor!@ *ho8l- it ontin8e 8ni)pe-e-"C o Citi2* anal!*i* onl8-e* that the oil an- 0a* extration *etor
o8l- a-- a* )an! a* 3.6 )illion net ne7 Ko?* ?! 2020 R;or &orth A)eria@ ?oth -iret an- in-iretS an-
*hrin: the -e;iit ?! 60 perent. 38C o 5oo- 9a:enJie 39 ;in-* in it* *enario report ;or the A)erian
.etrole8) In*tit8te a 8)8lati4e B800 ?illion in inrea*e- re4en8e* to 0o4ern)ent* R;e-eral@ *tate@ loalS
an- another 1.5 )illion <.3. Ko?*@ -iret an- in-iret@ o4er the o)in0 t7o -ea-e*.C o I(3 6lo?al In*i0ht@
40 in it* anal!*i* ;or A)eria2* &at8ral 6a* Alliane@ e*ti)ate* that the *hale 0a* in-8*tr! alone 7ill a--
)ore than 1 )illion Ko?* aro** the <.3. eono)! o4er the o)in0 t7o -ea-e* an- pro4i-e o4er B900
?illion in 8)8lati4e a--itional ;e-eral@ *tate@ an- loal 0o4ern)ent tax re4en8e* RB465 ;e-eral@ B460
*tate an- loalS.C 5hile there are -i;;erene* in a**8)ption* an- ?o8n-arie* a)on0 the*e an- *i)ilar
anal!*e*@ the or-er>o; )a0nit8-e ?ene;it* are *i)ilar an- *i)ilarl! i)pre**i4e" )illion* o; Ko?* an-
h8n-re-* o; ?illion* in re4en8e* to 0o4ern)ent o;;er*.C &one o; the a?o4e ao8nt* ;or the eono)i
ontri?8tion* th8* ;ar ;ro) oal@ nor -oe* it o8ntenane expan-in0 oal pro-8tion@ &orth A)eria2*
thir- 0reat h!-roar?on re*o8re. 3o)e 600@000 Ko?* are a**oiate- 7ith the oal in-8*tr!@ a ;8el that
alrea-! ontri?8te* *o)e B60 ?illion ann8all! to the <.3. eono)!@ not the lea*t o; 7hih i* the
inrea*in0l! 4ital role o; lo7>o*t eletriit! in an in;or)ation entri eono)!. 41C #he <.3. 8*e* a?o8t
three PPOE o; oal per !ear@ 7hile the 7orl- on*8)e* a?o8t 20 PPOE o; oal ann8all!. Expan-in0 oal
export* ?! an a)o8nt o)para?le 7ith the inrea*e in the oil an- 0a* *etor* 7o8l- a-- *e4eral h8n-re-
tho8*an- )ore Ko?* an- *e4eral h8n-re- ?illion )ore -ollar* in 8)8lati4e tax reeipt*. 42C 5hile
expan-in0 h!-roar?on pro-8tion 7ill reE8ire *i0ni;iant in4e*t)ent@ it 7ill ?e *8pplie- ?! the pri4ate
*etor@ 0eneratin0 ?ene;it* to the p8?li *etor@ to pri4ate itiJen*@ an- to ?8*ine**e*. #he*e :in-* o;
?ene;it*@ 7hih ar8e 7itho8t o*t to taxpa!er*@ o)e at a parti8larl! i)portant ti)e@ on*i-erin0 the
8rrent *tate o; per*i*tent 8ne)plo!)ent an- 8n-ere)plo!)ent@ the lo**e* in net 7orth ;or )an!
itiJen*@ an- the ?8-0et -e;iit* in )o*t *tate* an- the ;e-eral 0o4ern)ent.C Eono)i ?ene;it* ;ro)
expan-in0 h!-roar?on pro-8tion 7ill ?e ;elt 7i-el! 0i4en the *tr8t8ral an- 0eo0raphi -i4er*it! o;
h!-roar?on re*o8re* an- the a**oiate- in-8*trie*. In ontra*t to other part* o; the 7orl-@ ?ene;it* here
7on2t ;lo7 to a han-;8l o; oli0arh* ?8t 7ill in4ol4e tho8*an-* o; ?8*ine**e* an- ripple ?roa-l!
thro80ho8t the eono)!. C Expan-in0 h!-roar?on pro-8tion )a! ?e the *in0le )o*t i)portant
opport8nit! ;or near>ter) eono)i 0ro7th in &orth A)eria an- a ?ene;iial re*ettin0 o; ener0!
0eopoliti*.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [:/11]
&. -he plan spills over to improve every facet of the economy
9ason &'11
[Go*eph@ 3enior =ello7@ #he 5harton 3hool@ Ho8i*iana 3tate <ni4er*it! En-o7e- Chair o; Pan:in0 an- nationall!>
reno7ne- eono)i*t@ %(o8*e &at8ral /e*o8re* 38?o))ittee on Ener0! an- 9ineral /e*o8re* (earin0T =i*herie*@
5il-li;e@ Oean* an- In*8lar A;;air* He0i*lati4e (earin0 on (./. 306@ (./. 588@ 3. 266 an- (./. 285' 4/6/11
http"//777.0po.0o4/;-*!*/p:0/C(/6>112hhr065600/ht)l/C(/6>112hhr065600.ht)]
O;;*hore Oil .ro-8tion 3ti)8late* On*hore Eono)ie*. O;;*hore oil an- 0a* pro-8tion ha* a *i0ni;iant
e;;et on loal C on*hore eono)ie* a* 7ell a* the national eono)!. #here are ?roa-l! C three VVpha*e*AA
o; -e4elop)ent that ontri?8te to *tate eono)i C 0ro7th" R1S the initial exploration an- -e4elop)ent o;
o;;*hore C ;ailitie*T R2S the extration o; oil an- 0a* re*er4e*T an- R3S C re;inin0 r8-e oil into ;ini*he-
petrole8) pro-8t*. In-8*trie* C *8pportin0 tho*e pha*e* are )o*t e4i-ent in the *etion* o; the 68l; o; C
9exio that are 8rrentl! open to o;;*hore -rillin0.C =or exa)ple@ the <.3. *hip?8il-in0 in-8*tr!>>?a*e-
lar0el! in the C 68l; re0ion>>?ene;it* *i0ni;iantl! ;ro) initial o;;*hore oil C exploration e;;ort*.
Exploration an- -e4elop)ent al*o reE8ire* C *peialiJe- exploration an- -rillin0 4e**el*@ ;loatin0 -rillin0
ri0*@ C an- )ile* an- )ile* o; *teel pipe@ a* 7ell a* hi0hl! e-8ate- an- C *peialiJe- la?or to *ta;; the
e;;ort*.C #he on*hore *8pport -oe* not en- 7ith pro-8tion. A reent report C prepare- ;or the <.3.
,epart)ent o; Ener0! in-iate* that the Ho8i*iana C eono)! i* VVhi0hl! -epen-ent on a 7i-e 4ariet! o;
in-8*trie* that C -epen- on o;;*hore oil an- 0a* pro-8tionAA an- that o;;*hore C pro-8tion *8pport*
on*hore pro-8tion in the he)ial*@ plat;or) C ;a?riation@ -rillin0 *er4ie*@ tran*portation@ an- 0a*
proe**in0. C =leet* o; heliopter* an- <.3.>?8ilt 4e**el* al*o *8ppl! o;;*hore C ;ailitie* 7ith a 7i-e ran0e
o; in-8*trial an- on*8)er 0oo-*@ ;ro) C in-8*trial *pare part* to 0roerie*. A* explaine- in 3etion II.6@
C ho7e4er@ the -i*tane ?et7een o;;*hore ;ailitie* an- on*hore C o))8nitie* an a;;et the relati4e
inten*it! o; the loal eono)i C e;;et*.C #he eono)i e;;et* in the re;inin0 pha*e are e4en )ore -i;;8*e
C than the e;;et* ;or the t7o pree-in0 pha*e*. Altho80h *i0ni;iant C apait! i* loate- in Cali;ornia@
Illinoi*@ &e7 Ger*e!@ Ho8i*iana@ C .enn*!l4ania@ #exa*@ an- 5a*hin0ton@ a--itional <.3. re;inin0 apait!
C i* *prea- 7i-el! aro8n- the o8ntr!. A* a re*8lt@ re;iner! Ko?*@ 7a0e*@ C an- tax re4en8e* are e4en )ore
li:el! to VV*pill o4erAA into other C area* o; the o8ntr!@ inl8-in0 non>oa*tal *tate* li:e Illinoi*@ a* C tho*e
are ho)e to )an! re;inin0 an- he)ial in-8*trie* that ri-e the C eono)i oattail* o; oil exploration
an- extration.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [;/11]
(. Economic decline ris1s $reat po.er .ars
<oyal &'1'
[Ge-e-iah@ ,iretor o; Cooperati4e #hreat /e-8tion at the <.3. ,epart)ent o; ,e;en*e@ Eono)i* o; 5ar an-
.eae" Eono)i@ He0al@ an- .olitial .er*peti4e*@ p0 213>215]
He** int8iti4e i* ho7 perio-* o; eono)i -eline )a! inrea*e the li:elihoo- o; external on;lit. .olitial
*iene literat8re ha* ontri?8te- a )o-erate -e0ree o; attention to the i)pat o; eono)i -eline an-
the *e8rit! an- -e;en*e ?eha4ior o; inter-epen-ent *tate*. /e*earh in thi* 4ein ha* ?een on*i-ere- at
*!*te)i@ -!a-i an- national le4el*. 3e4eral nota?le ontri?8tion* ;ollo7. =ir*t@ on the *!*te)i le4el@
.ollin* R2008S a-4ane* 9o-el*:i an- #ho)p*on2* R1996S 7or: on lea-er*hip !le theor!@ ;in-in0 that
rh!th)* in the 0lo?al eono)! are a**oiate- 7ith the ri*e an- ;all o; a pre>e)inent po7er an- the
o;ten?loo-! tran*ition ;ro) one pre>e)inent lea-er to the next. A* *8h@ exo0eno8* *ho:* *8h a*
eono)i ri*e* o8l- 8*her in a re-i*tri?8tion o;relati4e po7er R*ee al*o 6ilpin@ 1981S that lea-* to
8nertaint! a?o8t po7er ?alane*@ inrea*in0 the ri*: o; )i*al8lation R=earon 1995S. Alternati4el!@ e4en
a relati4el! ertain re-i*tri?8tion o; po7er o8l- lea- to a per)i**i4e en4iron)ent ;or on;lit* a* a ri*in0
po7er )a! *ee: to hallen0e a -elinin0 po7er R5erner@ 1999S. 3eparatel!@ .ollin* R1996S al*o *ho7* that
0lo?al eono)i !le* o)?ine- 7ith parallel lea-er*hip !le* i)pat the li:elihoo- o; on;lit a)on0
)aKor@ )e-i8) an- *)all po7er*@ altho80h he *800e*t* that the a8*e* an- onnetion* ?et7een 0lo?al
eono)i on-ition* an- *e8rit! on-ition* re)ain* 8n:no7n. 3eon-@ on a -!a-i le4el@ Copelan-2*
R1996@ 2000S theor! o; tra-e expetation* *800e*t that %;8t8re expetation o; tra-e' i* a *i0ni;iant
4aria?le in 8n-er*tan-in0 eono)i on-ition* an- *e8rit! ?eha4ior o; *tate*. (e ar08e* that
inter-epen-ent *tate* are li:el! to 0ain pai;i ?ene;it* ;ro) tra-e *o lon0 a* the! ha4e an opti)i*ti 4ie7
o; ;8t8re tra-e relation*. (o7e4er@ i; the expetation* o; ;8t8re tra-e -eline@ parti8larl! ;or -i;;i8lt to
replae ite) *8h a* ener0! re*o8re*@ the li:elihoo- ;or on;lit inrea*e*@ a* *tate* 7ill ?e inline- to 8*e
;ore to 0ain ae** to tho*e re*o8re*. Cri*e* o8l- potentiall! ?e the tri00er ;or -erea*e- tra-e
expetation* either on it* o7n or ?ea8*e it tri00er* protetioni*t )o4e* ?! inter-epen-ent *tate*. #hir-@
other* ha4e on*i-ere- the lin: ?et7een eono)i -eline an- external ar)e- on;lit at a national le4el.
Plo)?er0 an- (e** R2002S ;in- a *tron0 orrelation ?et7een internal on;lit an- external on;lit@
parti8larl! -8rin0 perio-* o; eono)i -o7nt8rn. #he! 7rite@ #he lin:a0e* ?et7een internal an- external
on;lit an- pro*perit! are *tron0 an- )8t8all! rein;orin0. Eono)i on;lit ten-* to *pa7n internal
on;lit@ 7hih in t8rn ret8rn* the ;a4or. 9oreo4er@ the pre*ene o; a ree**ion ten-* to a)pli;! the extent
to 7hih international an- external on;lit* *el;>rein;ore eah other. RPlo)?er0 an- (e**@ 2002@ p. 89S
Eono)i -eline ha* al*o ?een lin:e- 7ith an inrea*e in the li:elihoo- o; terrori*) RPlo)?er0@ (e**
an- 5eerapana@ 2004S@ 7hih ha* the apait! to *pill aro** ?or-er* an- lea- to external ten*ion*.
=8rther)ore@ ri*e* 0enerall! re-8e the pop8larit! o; a *ittin0 0o4ern)ent. %,i4er*ionar! theor!'
*800e*t* that@ 7hen ;ain0 8npop8larit! ari*in0 ;ro) eono)i -eline@ *ittin0 0o4ern)ent* ha4e
inrea*e- inenti4e* to ;a?riate external )ilitar! on;lit* to reate a %rall! aro8n- the ;la0' e;;et. 5an0
R1996S@ ,e/o8en R1995S an- Plo)?er0@ (e** an- #ha:er R2006S ;in- *8pportin0 e4i-ene *ho7in0 that
eono)i -eline an- 8*e o; ;ore are at lea*t in-iretl! orrelate-. 6elpi R1997S@ 9iller R1999S@ an-
1i*an0ani an- .i:erin0 R2009S *800e*t that the ten-en! to7ar-* -i4er*ionar! tati* are 0reater ;or
-e)orati *tate* than a8torati *tate* -8e to the ;at the -e)orati lea-er* are 0enerall! )ore
*8*epti?le to ?ein0 re)o4e- ;ro) o;;ie -8e to la: o; -o)e*ti *8pport. ,e ,e/o8en R2000S ha*
pro4i-e- e4i-ene *ho7in0 that perio-* o; 7ea: eono)i per;or)ane in the <nite- 3tate* an- th8*
7ea: .re*i-ential pop8larit! are *tatiall! lin:e- to an inrea*e in the 8*e o; ;ore.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [=/11]
-h)s the %lan:
-he !nited "tates federal $overnment sho)ld increase its oil exploration and
development of the O)ter Continental "helf.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [1'/11]
Contention -hree is "olvency:
1. -he plan solves 5 it opens )p ;4 percent of America3s ener$y potential
/astin$s &'1&
[,o + Con0re**ional /epre*entati4e ;ro) 5a*hin0ton 3tate. %E4al8atin0 .re*i-ent O?a)a2* O;;*hore ,rillin0 .lan
an- I)pat* on o8r =8t8re' 2012@ http"//777.0po.0o4/;-*!*/p:0/C(/6>112hhr074145/ht)l/C(/6>
112hhr074145.ht)]
A)erian o;;*hore ener0! pro-8tion pla!* a 4ital role in o8r o8ntr!A* eono)i *e8rit!. It *8pport*
o4er a )illion A)erian Ko?*@ ao8nt* ;or 30 perent o; o8r &ationA* oil pro-8tion@ re-8e* o8r
-epen-ene on ;orei0n oil@ an- 0enerate* ?illion* o; -ollar* in =e-eral re4en8e. &o7 )ore than e4er@ 7ith
0a*oline prie* *till ho4erin0 near B4 a 0allon@ an- 8ne)plo!)ent a?o4e 8 perent@ the <nite- 3tate*
*ho8l- ?e -oin0 e4er!thin0 it an to en*8re the ti)el! an- re*pon*i?le pro-8tion o; o8r -o)e*ti ener0!
re*o8re*. <n;ort8natel!@ the O?a)a A-)ini*tration i* in*tea- p8r*8in0 an a0en-a that :eep* 85 perent
o; o8r o;;*hore area* lo*e- to ne7 A)erian ener0! pro-8tion. E4er! ;i4e !ear*@ the =e-eral
6o4ern)ent relea*e* a plan -iretin0 the -e4elop)ent o; o8r o;;*hore re*o8re*. It inl8-e* *pei;i
loation* an- ti)eline* ;or 7here an- 7hen ener0! pro-8tion 7ill o8r. #hi* A-)ini*trationA* -ra;t plan
inl8-e* no ne7 area*@ no 0oal*@ an- no ne7 ener0! re*o8re*. It i* a plan that rein*tate* the -rillin0
)oratoria li;te- in 2008@ an- lo:* 8p 4ital A)erian ener0! re*o8re*. 5hen .re*i-ent O?a)a too:
o;;ie@ there 7a* a plan in plae to on-8t lea*e *ale* in the ne7 area* that 7ere no lon0er 8n-er the
)oratoria. In*tea- o; *eiJin0 thi* opport8nit! to 4a*tl! inrea*e A)erian ener0! pro-8tion@ .re*i-ent
O?a)a -i*ar-e- that plan an- anele- lea*e *ale*@ inl8-in0 one o;; the oa*t o; Iir0inia that 7a*
*he-8le- ;or 2011. #he -ra;t plan relea*e- la*t ;all ;ro) the O?a)a A-)ini*tration lo*e* the entire
Atlanti an- .ai;i Coa*t* to -rillin0@ alon0 7ith part* o; the Arti. #he onl! area* thi* plan 7o8l- allo7
ener0! pro-8tion are in the 68l; o; 9exio an-@ 4er! late in the plan@ in *)all part* o; Ala*:a@ area* that
ha4e ?een open in *o)e a*e* ;or -ea-e*. .re*i-ent O?a)a lai)* to *8pport expan-e- o;;*hore -rillin0@
?8t the realit! i* that no ne7 -rillin0 7ill o8r an!7here -8rin0 hi* ter) in o;;ie. Or@ i; thi* plan i*
enate-@ ;or the next hal; -ea-e.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 1AC
Oil Exploration Case AFF
AFF
Oil Exploration 1AC [11/11]
&. -he plan is s)fficient to expand prod)ction .hile providin$ a shot in the arm to
the economy
/ille$eist et al &'1(
[.a8l + .re*i-ent an- .roKet Exe8ti4e ;or W8e*t O;;*hore /e*o8re*. %#he Eono)i Pene;it* o; Inrea*in0 <3
Ae** to O;;*hore Oil an- &at8ral 6a* /e*o8re* in the Atlanti' + a report prepare- ;or &ational Oean In-8*trie*
A**oiation. ,ee)?er 2013 http"//777.api.or0/X/)e-ia/=ile*/Oil>an->&at8ral>
6a*/Exploration/O;;*hore/Atlanti>OC3/Exe8ti4e>38))ar!>Eono)i>Pene;it*>o;>Inrea*in0><3>Ae**>to>
Atlanti>O;;*hore>/e*o8re*.p-;]
#hi* report E8anti;ie* the *i0ni;iant potential ?ene;it* to the <.3. eono)! that 7o8l- *te) ;ro) openin0
the Atlanti o8ter ontinental *hel; to oil an- nat8ral 0a* exploration. =e-eral o;;*hore lea*e *ale* 8n-er
exi*tin0 <.3. la7 7o8l- ?e expete- to lea- to hi0h le4el* o; o;;*hore oil an- nat8ral 0a* ati4it!. #hi*
ati4it! 7o8l- reE8ire lar0e a)o8nt* o; in4e*t)ent an- operational *pen-in0 ?! oil an- 0a* operator*@ an
e*ti)ate- B195 ?illion 8)8lati4e ?et7een 2017 an- 2035@ 7hih 7o8l- ?e pri)aril! *pent in*i-e the <.3.
an- the Atlanti oa*t *tate*. I; *ei*)i ati4it! 7ere to ?e0in in 2017 an- lea*e *ale* in 2018@ ;ir*t
pro-8tion o8l- ?e expete- a* earl! a* 2026. P! 2035@ o;;*hore oil an- nat8ral 0a* -e4elop)ent o8l-
pro-8e an inre)ental 1.3 )illion ?arrel* o; oil eE8i4alent per -a! R99?oe/-S@ 0enerate nearl! 280@000
Ko?*@ ontri?8te 8p to B23.5 ?illion per !ear to the <.3. eono)!@ an- 0enerate B51 ?illion in 8)8lati4e
0o4ern)ent re4en8e R#a?le 1S@ 9o*t o; the ?ene;it* 7o8l- ?e ar8e- to *tate* alon0 the ea*t oa*t R#a?le
2S ?8t the eono)i i)pat* 7o8l- ?e ;elt thro80ho8t the <.3. #he a)o8nt o; re4en8e ar8e- to *tate
0o4ern)ent* 7o8l- ?e -epen-ent on le0i*late- ;e-eral/*tate *harin0 a0ree)ent*.1
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC Inherency: A/- >1 ?@ot InherentA [1/1]
1. Oil prod)ction is not expandin$. -he !" may have more 1no.led$e of reserves
#)t prod)ction still la$s #ehind the rest of the $lo#al comm)nity forcin$ )s to
import )ns)staina#le *)antities of oil. -hat3s o)r 1AC %erry evidence.
&. -he stat)s *)o does not incl)de drillin$ of the outer continental shelf .hich is
the only .ay to achieve ener$y independence.
%erry &'1(
[9ar:. .ro;e**or o; Eono)i* at the <ni4er*it! o; 9ihi0an + =lint. %5orl-2* ,epen-ene on .er*ian 68l; Oil'
10/1/13 http"//777.aei.or0/artile/eono)i*/7orl-*>-epen-ene>on>per*ian>08l;>oil>ant>?e>i0nore-]
ItA* learl! ti)e ;or the a-)ini*tration to reo0niJe the 8r0en!@ to *top the -ela!in0 an- rationaliJin0.
5hile the <.3. oil an- 0a* in-8*tr! ha* inrea*e- -o)e*ti pro-8tion *i0ni;iantl! o4er the pa*t ;i4e
!ear*@ the a-)ini*tration ha* 7athe- ;ro) the *i-eline*@ a* i; ener0! in-epen-ene i* K8*t aro8n- the
orner.C In*tea-@ it *ho8l- per)it h!-ra8li ;rat8rin0 ;or oil an- 0a* on p8?li lan-@ openin0 8p o;;*hore
area* in the Atlanti an- ea*tern 68l; o; 9exio to explorator! -rillin0@ appro4e the 1e!*tone YH pipeline
an- *top allin0 ;or a--itional taxe* on the oil an- 0a* in-8*tr!.C 1eep in )in- that the <.3. 8rrentl!
on*8)e* 19 )illion ?arrel* o; oil a -a!@ o; 7hih a?o8t 10 )illion ?arrel* are i)porte-. An- oil -e)an-
i* proKete- to 0ro7 thro80h 2020 an- ?e!on-.C #he on*eE8ene* o; a *8--en r8n>8p in 7orl- oil prie*
are *i0ni;iant. One an onl! hope that the ti0htne** in the 0lo?al oil )ar:et 7ill ea*e. I; 7e 7ant to a4oi-
?ein0 hel- ho*ta0e to hi0h 7orl- oil prie*@ 7e nee- to *hi;t o8r ;o8* a7a! ;ro) the .er*ian 68l; an-
-e4elop )ore relia?le ener0! *o8re* here at ho)e.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC /arms 5 Oil Dependence: A/- >1 5 ?O%EC <esilientA [1/1]
1. O%EC isn3t resilient 5 the plan .o)ld #rea1 their monopoly on the $lo#al oil
mar1et. -heir +et0stein evidence says that O%EC .ill respond to the plan #y
tryin$ to 1eep $lo#al oil prices hi$h #)t o)r evidence says that the !nited "tates
.o)ld #e imm)ne from those press)res #eca)se of domestic reserves.
&. -he plan allo.s )s to navi$ate price volatility
/annah &'1&
[Gohn (annah@ =o8n-ation ;or ,e;en*e o; ,e)oraie*" 3enior =ello7@ 5a*hin0ton In*tit8te ;or &ear Ea*t .oli!"
=ello7@ =or)er A**i*tant to Iie .re*i-ent ,i: Chene!@ %Ener0! in*e8rit!" (o7 oil -epen-ene 8n-er)ine*
A)eriaA* e;;ort to *top the Iranian ?o)?'@ Oto?er 12th@ 2012@
http"//*ha-o7.;orei0npoli!.o)/po*t*/2012/10/12/ener0!Nin*e8rit!Nho7NoilN-epen-eneN8n-er)ine*Na)eria
N*Ne;;ortNtoN*topNtheNirania]
HetA* ;ae it. En*8rin0 the ;ree ;lo7 o; oil ha* ?een the )ain -ri4er o; A)erian *trate0! in the 9i--le Ea*t
;or -ea-e*. O8r nationA* eono)i 7ell?ein0 -epen-* on a 7ell>*8pplie- 0lo?al oil )ar:et@ an- o8ntrie*
in the 9i--le Ea*t ao8nt ;or a *i0ni;iant portion o; the 7orl-A* pro-8tion. #he artel the! -o)inate@
O.EC@ to-a! ontrol* ?et7een 30 an- 40 perent o; the international )ar:et 7hile po**e**in0 the 4a*t
)aKorit! o; the 7orl-A* pro4en re*er4e*. A* a re*8lt@ A)eria an- the 0lo?al eono)! are inre-i?l!
48lnera?le to 7hat happen* in the re0ion. E4er! <.3. ree**ion ?8t one *ine 5orl- 5ar II ha* ?een
pree-e- ?! an oil prie *ho:. An- in the )aKorit! o; a*e*@ tho*e *ho:* ha4e ?een tri00ere- ?! e4ent*
ori0inatin0 in the 9i--le Ea*t. #hin: the 1973 Ara? oil e)?ar0o@ the 1979 Iranian re4ol8tion@ or 3a--a)A*
1991 in4a*ion o; 187ait. P8t !o8 -onAt ha4e to 0o ?a: that ;ar to appreiate the pro?le) 7e ;ae. Ha*t
!earA* re4ol8tion in Hi?!a@ alon0 7ith ?roa-er 8nre*t aro** the Ara? 7orl-@ *ent oil prie* *:!ro:etin0.
,itto IranA* threat* in Gan8ar! to ?lo:a-e the 3trait* o; (or)8J. An- onern a?o8t an e4ent8al 7ar 7ith
Iran ontin8e to i)po*e a *i0ni;iant ri*: pre)i8) on 0lo?al prie*@ a realit! A)erian* on;ront e4er!
-a! at the 0a* p8)p. E4en *hort o; tippin0 the eono)! ?a: into ree**ion@ the e;;et* o; thi* :in- o;
prie 4olatilit! are hi0hl! ne0ati4e" o8r tra-e -e;iit ri*e*T -i*po*a?le ino)e an- on*8)er *pen-in0
-elineT an- eono)i 0ro7th ta:e* a *i0ni;iant hit.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC /arms 5 Oil Dependence: A/- >& 5 ?Ener$y @ot BeyA [1/1]
1. Ener$y is 1ey to !" leadership. /i$h prices and volatile shoc1s ma1e the !nited
"tates dependent on the rest of the .orld for its $eopolitical mo#ility and d)ra#le
he$emony re*)ires that the military still #e a#le to retain mo#ility if the $lo#al
s)pply .ere to #e c)t off. -hat3s #oth pieces of 1AC 2lac1.ill and O3")llivan
evidence.
&. Ener$y dependence re*)ires reliance on )nsta#le re$imes that actively
)ndermine American interests 5 this constit)tes the $reatest threat to national
sec)rity
6efton and +eiss &'1'
[/e?ea He;ton an- ,aniel G. 5ei**@ He;ton i* 3enior .oli! Anal!*t at A)erian .ro0re**@ *peialiJin0 in
international li)ate han0e poli! an- *8*taina?le -e4elop)entT 5ei** i* a 3enior =ello7 an- the ,iretor o;
Cli)ate 3trate0! at A)erian .ro0re**@ 7here he lea-* the Center2* lean ener0! an- li)ate a-4oa! a)pai0n@ %Oil
,epen-ene I* a ,an0ero8* (a?it'@ Gan8ar! 13th@ 2010@
http"//a)erianpro0re**.or0/i**8e*/0reen/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil>-epen-ene>i*>a>-an0ero8*>ha?it/]
#he <nite- 3tate* i)porte- 4 )illion ?arrel* o; oil a -a!For 1.5 ?illion ?arrel* totalF;ro) %-an0ero8* or
8n*ta?le' o8ntrie* in 2008 at a o*t o; a?o8t B150 ?illion. #hi* e*ti)ate exl8-e* IeneJ8ela@ 7hih i* not
on the 3tate ,epart)ent2* %-an0ero8* or 8n*ta?le' li*t ?8t ha* )aintaine- a -i*tintl! anti>A)erian
;orei0n an- ener0! poli!. IeneJ8ela i* one o; the top ;i4e oil exporter* to the <nite- 3tate*@ an- 7e
i)porte- 435 )illion ?arrel* o; oil ;ro) the) in 2008. A* a )aKor ontri?8tor to the 0lo?al -e)an- ;or
oil the <nite- 3tate* i* pa!in0 to ;inane an- *8*tain 8n;rien-l! re0i)e*. O8r -e)an- -ri4e* 8p oil prie*
on the 0lo?al )ar:et@ 7hih o;tenti)e* ?ene;it* oil>pro-8in0 nation* that -on2t *ell to 8*. #he Center ;or
A)erian .ro0re** ;in-* in %3e8rin0 A)eria2* =8t8re" Enhanin0 O8r &ational 3e8rit! ?! /e-8in0 oil
,epen-ene an- En4iron)ental ,a)a0e@' that %?ea8*e o; thi*@ anti>5e*tern nation* *8h a* IranF7ith
7ho) the <nite- 3tate* ?! la7 annot tra-e or ?8! oilF?ene;it re0ar-le** o; 7ho the en- ?8!er o; the ;8el
i*.' =8rther@ the re0i)e* an- elite* that eono)iall! ?ene;it ;ro) rih ener0! re*o8re* rarel! *hare oil
re4en8e* 7ith their people@ 7hih 7or*en* eono)i -i*parit! in the o8ntrie* an- at ti)e* reate*
re*o8re>-ri4en ten*ion an- ri*e*. #he 3tate ,epart)ent ite* oil>relate- 4iolene in parti8lar a* a
-an0er in &i0eria@ 7here )ore than 54 national oil 7or:er* or ?8*ine**people ha4e ?een :i-nappe- at oil>
relate- ;ailitie* an- other in;ra*tr8t8re *ine Gan8ar! 2008. Atta:* ?! in*8r0ent* on the <.3. )ilitar!
an- i4ilian* ontin8e to ?e a -an0er in IraE. O8r oil -epen-ene 7ill al*o ?e inrea*in0l! har-er an-
)ore -an0ero8* to *ati*;!. In 2008 the <nite- 3tate* on*8)e- 23 perent o; the 7orl-2* petrole8)@ 57
perent o; 7hih 7a* i)porte-. Met the <nite- 3tate* hol-* le** than 2 perent o; the 7orl-2* oil re*er4e*.
/o80hl! 40 perent o; o8r i)port* a)e ;ro) Cana-a@ 9exio@ an- 3a8-i Ara?ia@ ?8t 7e an2t ontin8e
rel!in0 on the*e allie*. #he )aKorit! o; Cana-a2* oil lie* in tar *an-*@ a 4er! -irt! ;8el@ an- 9exio2* )ain
oil ;iel-* are proKete- -r! 8p 7ithin a -ea-e. 5itho8t re-8in0 o8r -epen-ene on oil 7e2ll ?e ;ore- to
inrea*in0l! loo: to )ore anta0oni*ti an- 4olatile o8ntrie* that po*e -iret threat* to o8r national
*e8rit!.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC /arms 5 Oil Dependence: A/- >( 5 ?/e$emony Doesn3t
"olve +arA [1/1]
1. /e$emony prevents .ar. !" leadership deters other re$ional actors from
initiatin$ conflict and .hen conflict does flare )p he$emony 1eeps it contained.
-hat no conflict has escalated to a $reat po.er .ar since +orld +ar -.o can #e
primarily attri#)ted to !" leadership. -hat3s o)r 1AC 6ie#er evidence.
&. Ener$y dependence .ill )nravel !" leadership 5 that independently ca)ses a
violent po.er transition
"ch.eller &'11
[/an-!. .ro; .olitial 3iene at Ohio 3tate. %A;ter <nipolarit!" /an-all H. 3h7eller an- China2* Ii*ion* o;
International Or-er in Yiao!8 .8 + an Era o; <3 ,eline' 2011. A4aila?le 4ia .roKet 98*e]
(i*tor! tell* 8* that -ra)ati *tr8t8ral han0e* rarel! 8n;ol- *)oothl! or peae;8ll!. /eali*t* a* ;ar ?a:
a* #h8!-i-e* ha4e note- the -an0er o; *it8ation* in 7hih *tate* 8n-er0o rapi- ri*e* an- -eline* in
relati4e po7er@ 7here one *tate a*pire* to he0e)oni *tat8* an- another *ee:* to )aintain it. In-ee-@
hi*tor!2* )o*t -e*tr8ti4e an- inZ8ential ar)e- on;lit* ha4e ?een titani *tr800le* alle- he0e)oni
7ar*" *!*te)7i-e )ilitar! onte*t* o; 8nli)ite- )ean* ?et7een oalition* le- ?! a -elinin0 lea-er an- a
ri*in0 hallen0er. #he ;8n-a)ental i**8e at *ta:e in he0e)oni 7ar* i* the )aintenane or aE8i*ition o;
pre*ti0e@ -e[ne- a* the rep8tation ;or po7er that *er4e* a* the e4er!-a! 8rren! o; international politi*.
.re*ti0e -ei-e* 7ho 7ill or-er an- 0o4ern the international *!*te)@ the nat8re o; that or-er Rit* *oial
p8rpo*eS@ an- ho7 that or-er 7ill ?e pro4i-e- R7hether ?! )ean* o; oeri4e or le0iti)ate a8thorit!S.8
#he )ain a8*al -ri4er o; /o?ert 6ilpin2* theor! o; he0e)oni 7ar an- international han0e i* the la7 o;
8ne4en rate* o; 0ro7th a)on0 *tate*@ 7hih re-i*tri?8te* po7er in the international *!*te). (e0e)oni
7ar* onentrate po7er in the han-* o; one 4itorio8* *tate@ in 7ho*e intere*t* a ne7 international or-er
i* e*ta?li*he-. =or a ti)e@ ro80hl! t7ent!>[4e !ear*@ there i* little -i*K8nt8re ?et7een at8al po7er an-
pre*ti0e@ an- *o the international or-er re)ain* *ta?le an- le0iti)ate. O4er ti)e@ ho7e4er@ the la7 o;
8ne4en 0ro7th -i;;8*e* po7er thro80ho8t the *!*te). A* the he0e)on2* o)petitor* 0ro7 )ore
po7er;8l@ their -i**ati*;ation 7ith the *tat8* E8o@ a)?ition*@ an- -e)an-* ;or pre*ti0e an- inZ8ene
0ro7 a* 7ell. .re*ti0e@ ho7e4er@ ten-* to ?e *ti:!" rep8tation* ;or po7er@ -i4i*ion* o; territor!@ an- the
in*tit8tional arhitet8re o; the international or-er -o not )o4e in lo:*tep 7ith han0e* in po7er.
5hen a lar0e eno80h -i*K8nt8re ari*e*@ the *!*te) enter* a *tate o; -i*eE8ili?ri8).9 E4ent8all!@ *erio8*
international ri*e* en*8e@ a* *peta8lar 0ro7th in the eono)i an- )ilitar! apa?ilitie* o; ri*in0
po7er* tri00er* %inten*e o)petition a)on0 o8ntrie* ;or re*o8re* an- )ar:et*@ )ilitar! po7er@
politial in;l8ene@ an- pre*ti0e.'10 ,ra)ati *hi;t* in po7er al*o en0en-er *e8rit! -ile))a*. 5hate4er
their tr8e intention*@ rapi-l! 0ro7in0 *tate* o;ten appear a* threat* to their nei0h?or*@ a* 7ell a* to the
he0e)on an- it* allie*.11.rior to )ilitar! on;rontation or e4en the threat o; *8h onZit@ 7e ar08e that
the ri*in0 hallen0er )8*t -ele0iti)iJe the he0e)on2* 0lo?al a8thorit! an- or-er.12 #hi* -ele0iti)ation
pha*e@ 7hih appear* !ear* ?e;ore the ritial inZetion point o; a po7er tran*ition@ reate* the on-ition*
;or the e)er0ene o; a re4i*ioni*t o8nterhe0e)oni oalition. ,8rin0 thi* pha*e@ the re4i*ioni*t po7er
4oie* it* -i**ati*;ation 7ith the e*ta?li*he- or-er an- ;or0e* the *oial p8rpo*e that 7ill ?eo)e the
;o8n-ation o; it* -e)an- ;or a ne7 7orl- or-er. #hi* pha*e o8r* 7ithin the lar0er !lial pattern o; R1S
a *ta?le or-er@ R2S the -eonentration an- -ele0iti)ation o; the he0e)on2* po7er@ R3S ar)* ?8il-8p*
an- the ;or)ation o; alliane*@ R4S a re*ol8tion o; the international ri*i*@ o;ten thro80h he0e)oni 7ar@
an- R5S *!*te) rene7al.13 I* onte)porar! international politi* ;ollo7in0 thi* on4entional pattern an-@
i; *o@ 7here are 7e in the !leL
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC /arms 5 Economy: A/- >1 5 ?Economy 8ro.in$ @o.A [1/1]
1. -he economy is not meaningfully expanding in the stat)s *)o. Any shortCterm
$ains o#sc)re a str)ct)ral pro#lem in the economy related to ener$y dependence.
-hat3s o)r 1AC 9ills evidence.
&. -he economy is falterin$ in the stat)s *)o.
DE< 7C&:
[\a:* EE8it! /e*earh + an Internationall!>re*pete- eE8it! re*earh ;ir). %<.3. 6,. ,eline" /eal or G8*t a 9ira0e
o; ,erailin0 Eono)!L' 6/27/14 http"//777.Ja:*.o)/*to:/ne7*/138387/<3>6,.>,eline>/eal>or>G8*t>a>
9ira0e>o;>,erailin0>Eono)!]
#he thir- an- ;inal -ata ;or real 0ro** -o)e*ti pro-8t R]6,.]S i* o8t an- re4eal* that the <.3. eono)!
i* ;alterin0. Aor-in0 to P8rea8 o; Eono)i Anal!*i*@ 6,. *hr8n: 2.9D in the ;ir*t E8arter o; 2014
ontrar! to the *eon- e*ti)ate o; 1D -eline an- the ;ir*t e*ti)ate o; 0.1D inrea*e. #hi* i* the 7or*t
per;or)ane *ine ;i4e !ear*. In the ;o8rth E8arter o; 2013@ real 6,. ha- a-4ane- 2.6D.C #hi* lea-* to
the o?4io8* E8e*tion a?o8t 7hether thi* -eline i* K8*t a )ira0e o; a -erailin0 eono)! or a real h8r-le in
the path o; reo4er!. ,i4i-e- )ar:et *enti)ent* are re4eale- a* 7e li;t the 8rtain on thi* -e?ate.C 9ar:et
expert* ?elie4e that the ontration *te))e- ;ro) an inle)ent 7eather on-ition that lo:e- on*8)er*
in-oor*@ ha)pere- pro-8tion an- on*tr8tion ati4itie*@ an- le- to *o;t ho)e an- a8to *ale*. Export*
al*o pla!e- *poil*port@ ;allin0 8.9D -8rin0 the E8arter. #hi* in-iate* that the E8ropean eono)! i* *till
not o)pletel! o8t o; the 7oo-*@ 7hile e)er0in0 nation* *8h a* China an- PraJil *lo7e-. =8rther@ the
)o8ntin0 ten*ion in IraE )a! hin-er 0ro7th pro*pet*.C Con*8)er *pen-in0@ 7hih ao8nt* ;or o4er
t7o>thir- o; the <.3. eono)i ati4it!@ al*o 0re7 )o-eratel! ?! 1D in the E8arter@ -o7n ;ro) the 3.1D
K8)p antiipate-@ -8e to lo7er health are *pen-in0 than earlier tho80ht o; an- *e4ere 7inter. 9oreo4er@
on*8)er *pen-in0 7a* onl! 8p 0.2D ;or the )onth o; 9a! 4er*8* 0.4D 0ain en4i*ione-. (o7e4er@ it
i)pro4e- ;ro) April@ 7hen on*8)er *pen-in0 7a* ;lat.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC /arms 5 Economy: A/- >& 5 ?Doesn3t "olve 8ro.thA [1/1]
1. -he plan solves economic $ro.th:
A. It initiates a shortCterm stim)l)s related to increased Eo#s man)fact)rin$ and
ener$yCsector spendin$.
2. It solves a str)ct)ral pro#lem .ith the economy related to O%EC3s a#ility to ri$
the mar1et a$ainst the !nited "tates and manip)late prices. -hat3s o)r 1AC 9ills
9ason and 2lac1.ill and O3")llivan evidence.
&. Economic decline is inevita#le .itho)t the plan as a res)lt of oil shoc1s and
price volatility. Only domestic s)pply increases can solve these factors.
Collina &''4
[#o) \. Collina@ the Exe8ti4e ,iretor o; 20/20 Ii*ion. 20/20 Ii*ion i* a national@ non>parti*an or0aniJation
pro)otin0 inrea*e- itiJen partiipation on 0lo?al *e8rit! an- en4iron)ental i**8e*@ %Oil ,epen-ene an- <.3.
=orei0n .oli!" /eal ,an0er*@ /eali*ti 3ol8tion*'@ #e*ti)on! ?e;ore the Co))ittee on =orei0n /elation*
38?o))ittee on &ear Ea*tern an- 3o8th A*ian A;;air*@ Oto?er 19th@ 2005]
(i0h oil prie* 0et pa**e- on to the on*8)er thro80h hi0her o*t* at the p8)p@ )ore expen*i4e 0oo-*
an- *er4ie*@ a 7ea:er Ko? )ar:et@ an- lo7er *to: prie*. At )8h lo7er oil prie*@ the total eono)i
o*t o; o8r oil -epen-ene ha- ?een e*ti)ate- to ?e a?o8t B300 Pillion per !ear. At to-a!2* prie* o; B60
per ?arrel@ the eono)i o*t* o; exportin0 -ollar* ;or oil i* )8h 0reater. A* the prie o; oil ontin8e* to
li)? -8e to *8ppl! -i*r8ption*@ thi* o*t to the A)erian eono)! an- Ko?* 7ill ri*e.ix =e-eral /e*er4e
Chair)an Alan 6reen*pan *ai- thi* 7ee: that 0lo?al eono)i 0ro7th 7ill ?e h8rt ?! the ri*e in ener0!
prie* a8*e- ?! the h8rriane*. %^#he reent *8r0e in ener0! prie* 7ill 8n-o8?te-l! ?e a -ra0 ;ro) no7
on@' he *ai- in hi* ;ir*t p8?li o))ent* a?o8t the *tor)*2 eono)i e;;et*. Ener0! prie* *oare- 12D in
3epte)?er@ the ;a*te*t rate on reor-@ ontri?8tin0 to the hi0he*t )onthl! on*8)er in;lation rate in 25
!ear*.x #he 8rrent 0a*oline ri*i* 7a* *et o;; ?! the lo*8re o; re;inerie* on the 68l; Coa*t@ re4ealin0 o8r
lon0>*tan-in0 48lnera?ilit! to *8ppl! -i*r8ption*. In thi* a*e@ the -i*r8ption 7a* -o)e*ti. P8t o8r oil
*8ppl! hain i* 0lo?al@ an- -i*r8ption an happen an!7here ;ro) 7hen the r8-e oil i* p8)pe- ;ro) the
0ro8n- to 7hen it i* p8)pe- a* re;ine- 0a* into !o8r ar. A reent ri*i* *i)8lation r8n ?! the &ational
Co))i**ion on Ener0! .oli! an- 3e8rin0 A)eria2* =8t8re Ener0! ;o8n- that i;@ ;or exa)ple@ there 7a*
ethni 8nre*t in oil>rih &i0eria an- terrori*t atta:* in Ala*:a an- 3a8-i Ara?ia@ the re-8e- oil *8ppl!
7o8l- -ri4e 0a* prie* here to B5.74 a 0allon an- the eono)! into ree**ion.xi An- no7 7e an a--
)aKor h8rriane* to the li*t o; po**i?ilitie*. #he point i*@ a* o8r -epen-ene on ;orei0n oil 0ro7*@ *o -oe*
o8r 48lnera?ilit! to *8ppl! *ho:*. Aor-in0 to /o?ert 9. 6ate*@ ;or)er CIA -iretor@ %#he real le**on
here [i* that] it onl! reE8ire* a relati4el! *)all a)o8nt o; oil to ?e ta:en o8t o; the *!*te) to ha4e h80e
eono)i an- *e8rit! i)pliation*.'
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC /arms 5 Economy: A/- >( 5 ?@o ImpactA [1/1]
1. Economic decline ris1s conflict. 6eaders lose their incentive for cooperation and
are tempted to lash o)t for reso)rce and diversionary reasons. %ast conflicts li1e
+orld +ar II prove that there is a stron$ relationship #et.een economic
contraction and $lo#al conflict 5 that3s o)r 1AC <oyal evidence. %refer o)r
evidence 5 it cites the concl)sion of a ro#)st set of data and comes from a *)alified
expert in the field.
&. /istory proves that economic decline ris1s .ar
M8l8 2003
[Eono)i Anal!*t ;or the .eople2* ,ail! RChinaS. %Eono)i /ee**ion" #he Pla*tin0 =8*e o; 5ar'. .eople2* ,ail!@
7/25/3 Hexi*]
I; one exa)ine* the 7ar* ?ro:en o8t e4er *ine )ore than a ent8r! a0o@ one 7ill -i*o4er an intere*tin0
pheno)enon@ that i*@ eah ;airl! ?i0 eono)i ree**ion Ror eono)i ri*i*S 7a* ine4ita?l! ;ollo7e- ?!
the er8ption o; a 7ar. #hi* i* tr8e 7ith 5orl- I@ 5orl- 5ar II@ the 68l; 5ar@ a* 7ell a* the IraE 7ar. It an
?e *ai- that eono)i -o7nt8rn i* the ?la*tin0 ;8*e o; )o-ern 7ar .
(. Economic decline ca)ses financial crises in )nsta#le re$ions 5 ca)ses .ar
Bemp &'1'
[6eo;;re! 1e)p@ ,iretor o; /e0ional 3trate0i .ro0ra)* at #he &ixon Center@ *er4e- in the 5hite (o8*e 8n-er
/onal- /ea0an@ *peial a**i*tant to the pre*i-ent ;or national *e8rit! a;;air* an- *enior -iretor ;or &ear Ea*t an-
3o8th A*ian a;;air* on the &ational 3e8rit! Co8nil 3ta;;@ =or)er ,iretor@ 9i--le Ea*t Ar)* Control .roKet at the
Carne0ie En-o7)ent ;or International .eae@ 2010@ #he Ea*t 9o4e* 5e*t" In-ia@ China@ an- A*ia2* 6ro7in0 .re*ene
in the 9i--le Ea*t@ p. 233>4]
#he *eon- *enario@ alle- 9a!he) an- Chao*@ i* the oppo*ite o; the ;ir*t *enarioT e4er!thin0 that an
0o 7ron0 -oe* 0o 7ron0. #he 7orl- eono)i *it8ation 7ea:en* rather than *tren0then*@ an- In-ia@
China@ an- Gapan *8;;er a )aKor re-8tion in their 0ro7th rate*@ ;8rther 7ea:enin0 the 0lo?al eono)!.
A* a re*8lt@ ener0! -e)an- ;all* an- the prie o; ;o**il ;8el* pl8))et*@ lea-in0 to a ;inanial ri*i* ;or the
ener0!>pro-8in0 *tate*@ 7hih are ;ore- to 8t ?a: -ra)atiall! on expan*ion pro0ra)* an- *oial
7el;are. #hat in t8rn lea-* to politial 8nre*t" an- n8rt8re* -i;;erent ra-ial 0ro8p*@ inl8-in0@ ?8t not
li)ite- to@ I*la)i extre)i*t*. #he internal *ta?ilit! o; *o)e o8ntrie* i* hallen0e-@ an- there are )ore
%;aile- *tate*.' 9o*t *erio8* i* the ollap*e o; the -e)orati 0o4ern)ent in .a:i*tan an- it* ta:eo4er ?!
98*li) extre)i*t*@ 7ho then ta:e po**e**ion o; a lar0e n8)?er o; n8lear 7eapon*. #he -an0er o; 7ar
?et7een In-ia an- .a:i*tan inrea*e* *i0ni;iantl!. Iran@ al7a!* 7orrie- a?o8t an extre)i*t .a:i*tan@
expan-* an- 7eaponiJe* it* n8lear pro0ra). #hat ;8rther enhane* n8lear proli;eration in the 9i--le
Ea*t@ 7ith 3a8-i Ara?ia@ #8r:e!@ an- E0!pt Koinin0 I*rael an- Iran a* n8lear *tate*. <n-er the*e
ir8)*tane*@ the potential ;or n8lear terrori*) inrea*e*@ an- the po**i?ilit! o; a n8lear terrori*t
atta: in either the 5e*tern 7orl- or in the oil>pro-8in0 *tate* )a! lea- to a ;8rther -e4a*tatin0 ollap*e
o; the 7orl- eono)i )ar:et@ 7ith a t*8na)i>li:e i)pat on *ta?ilit!. In thi* *enario@ )aKor -i*r8ption*
an ?e expete-@ 7ith -ire on*eE8ene* ;or t7o>thir-* o; the planet2* pop8lation.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC "olvency: A/- >1 5 ?-echnolo$ical /)rdlesA [1/1]
1. %rod)ction h)rdle concerns are overstated. Fes the process is complicated #)t
there3s a financial incentive for oil prod)cers to ma1e the process as safe and
effective as possi#le. -hat3s o)r 1AC /ille$eist evidence.
&. -he plan overcomes technical h)rdles and res)lts in a massive #oost in
prod)ction.
Alario &'1(
[,i:@ Chair)an o; 1e! Ener0! 3er4ie* In@ 7>16>13@ %#i)e to re)o4e roa-?lo:* to o;;*hore ener0! pro-8tion@'
Chron@ http"//777.hron.o)/opinion/o8tloo:/artile/#i)e>to>re)o4e>roa-?lo:*>to>o;;*hore>ener0!>
4668833.php]
A -ea-e a0o@ it *ee)e- ;ar>;ethe- that A)eria 7o8l- ?e poi*e- to ?eo)e the 7orl-A* ener0! re*o8re
lea-er. Met@ thatA* the a*e to-a!. A)eria i* on the path to o4erta:e /8**ia a* the top nat8ral 0a* pro-8er
in 2015@ aor-in0 to the International Ener0! A0en!. 3o)e expert* e4en pre-it that 7e 7ill ?eo)e the
7orl-A* lar0e*t oil pro-8er a?o8t ;i4e !ear* later@ *8rpa**in0 3a8-i Ara?ia. #han:* to tehnolo0!@ ener0!
o)panie* an no7 *a;el! an- o*t>e;;eti4el! reo4er -o)e*ti oil an- nat8ral 0a* ;ro) *hale on*hore
an- ;ro) -eep re*er4oir* o;;*hore. #he in-8*tr! ha* ?eo)e a Ko?* )ahine" ItA* one o; a han-;8l o;
*etor* that *a7 -o8?le>-i0it perent Ko? 0ro7th ?et7een 2010 an- 2012@ aor-in0 to an anal!*i* ?!
CareerP8il-er. A-- the in-iret Ko?* ;ro) the <.3. ener0! ?oo)@ an- the n8)?er o; ne7 Ko?* ri*e* 7ell
into the h8n-re-* o; tho8*an-*. #appin0 8non4entional ener0! on lan- i* -ri4in0 )8h o; thi*
re)ar:a?le 0ro7th@ ?8t there i* tre)en-o8* potential to inrea*e ener0! pro-8tion o;; o8r nationA*
*hore* a* 7ell > ;ro) oil@ 0a* an- 7in- > in the O8ter Continental 3hel;. <n;ort8natel!@ the ;e-eral
0o4ern)ent ha* plae- 87 perent o; the o8ter *hel; o;; the ta?le to oil an- 0a* exploration. Hea-er* in
Con0re** are tr!in0 to K8)p *tart inrea*e- o;;*hore oil an- 0a* pro-8tion 7ith at lea*t t7o i)portant
piee* o; le0i*lation. Ha*t )onth@ the <.3. (o8*e o; /epre*entati4e* pa**e- the O;;*hore Ener0! an- Go?*
At@ *pon*ore- /ep. ,o (a*tin0*@ />5a*h. #hi* le0i*lation 7o8l- reE8ire the O?a)a a-)ini*tration to
*rap it* 8rrent re*triti4e ;i4e>!ear o8ter *hel; oil an- 0a* lea*in0 plan an- expan- lea*e *ale* in
8ntappe- o;;*hore area* e*ti)ate- to hol- at lea*t 2.5 ?illion ?arrel* o; oil an- 7.5 trillion 8?i ;eet o;
nat8ral 0a*. R&ote that the*e e*ti)ate* are ?a*e- on -ea-e*>ol- *ei*)i -ata@ an- are there;ore li:el!
8n-ere*ti)ate*.S #he at 7o8l- reE8ire lea*e *ale* in ne7 area*@ inl8-in0 o;;*hore Iir0inia@ 3o8th
Carolina@ *o8thern Cali;ornia an- in Ala*:aA* &orth Ale8tian Pa*in. #h8*@ *tate* li:e 3o8th Carolina an-
Iir0inia@ 7here ?roa- ?iparti*an *8pport exi*t* ;or o;;*hore ener0! exploration an- pro-8tion@ 7o8l-
;inall! ?e allo7e- to partiipate in A)eriaA* ener0! re4ol8tion. #he at 7o8l- allo7 *tate* 7ith ener0!
pro-8tion o;;*hore to *hare in 37.5 perent o; the re*8ltin0 re4en8e@ *i)ilar to 8rrent la7 that applie* to
68l; Coa*t *tate*. It 7o8l- al*o reate a health an- *a;et! aa-e)! to train 0o4ern)ent in*petor* an-
*8pport an O8ter Continental 3hel; Ener0! 3a;et! A-4i*or! Poar- that 7ill pro4i-e in-epen-ent a-4ie to
the o;;*hore ener0! in-8*tr!. Al*o la*t )onth@ the (o8*e pa**e- the O8ter Continental 3hel;
#ran*?o8n-ar! (!-roar?on A0ree)ent* A8thoriJation At@ *pon*ore- ?! /ep. Ge;; ,8nan@ />3.C. #hi*
at 7o8l- al*o help expan- A)eriaA* o;;*hore ener0! pro-8tion an- i)pro4e relation* 7ith o8r
nei0h?or* to the *o8th ?! ;or)all! a8thoriJin0 an a0ree)ent *i0ne- ?et7een the <.3. an- 9exio in
=e?r8ar! 2012 to ;ailitate ooperation on ener0! -e4elop)ent in the )ariti)e ?o8n-ar! ?et7een the t7o
o8ntrie* in the 68l; o; 9exio. #he a0ree)ent 7o8l- li;t the )oratori8) on -rillin0 in that area@ 7hih i*
e*ti)ate- to hol- 8p to 172 )illion ?arrel* o; oil an- *o)e 300 ?illion 8?i ;eet o; nat8ral 0a*. #he
9exian 0o4ern)ent rati;ie- the a0ree)ent in April 2012. &o7 i* the ti)e to re)o4e an! 8nnee**ar!
o?*tale* to *a;e@ 8ttin0>e-0e -o)e*ti o;;*hore ener0! exploration an- pro-8tion *o that the <.3. an
li4e 8p to it* ener0! potential. #he (o8*e ha* -one it* part ?! pa**in0 t7o i)portant piee* o; o;;*hore
ener0! le0i*lation. &o7 it i* the 3enateA* t8rn to at.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC "olvency: A/- >& 5 ?@o 9ar1et AdaptionA [1/1]
1. -he mar1et .o)ld respond to the plan. 9ost of the O)ter Continental "helf is
offClimits for oil exploration and development .hich has st)nted overall
prod)ction even tho)$h it3s an extremely profita#le sector of the economy. -hat3s
o)r 1AC %erry evidence.
&. -he mar1et wants the plan and .o)ld aggressively compete for drillin$ ri$hts
+ilson &'1,
[Y. 3ta;; 5riter ;or the ,ail! Co)et. %Co)panie* Co)pete ;or O;;*hore Hea*e*' The Daily Comet@ 3/20/14
http"//777.-ail!o)et.o)/artile/20140320/A/#ICHE3/140329984]
Oil an- 0a* o)panie* p8t 8p )ore than B800 )illion in 7innin0 ?i-* ;or a?o8t 1.7 )illion are* in the
68l; o; 9exio@ *i0nalin0 intere*t in the ;8t8re o; loal o;;*hore oil a* on*hore pla!* ontin8e to ?oo)
el*e7here. In all@ ri0ht* ;or )ore than 40 )illion are* 7ere 8p ;or 0ra?* 7ith 50 oil an- 0a* ;ir)*
*8?)ittin0 ?i-* at the a8tion hel- in &e7 Orlean* 5e-ne*-a!. %5e -o pla! lo*e attention to the*e@' *ai-
.ort =o8rhon ,iretor Chett Chia**on@ 7ho*e port2* rapi- 0ro7th i* proKete- to ontin8e ;or !ear*. 38h
lea*e *ale* 0i4e loal o;;iial* a *en*e o; 7hat :in- o; intere*t exi*t* ;or -rillin0 in the o;;*hore oil path
*er4ie- lar0el! ;ro) Ha;o8rhe an- #erre?onne pari*he*@ Chia**on *ai-. %5hile -o)e*ti ener0!
pro-8tion i* 0ro7in0 rapi-l! in the <nite- 3tate*@ the Central 68l; o; 9exio@ a* -e)on*trate- ?! to-a!2*
lea*e *ale@ 7ill ontin8e to ?e one o; the orner*tone* o; the nation2* ener0! port;olio@' *ai- #o))! ..
Pea8-rea8@ P8rea8 o; Oean Ener0! 9ana0e)ent -iretor. Ha*t !ear2* *ale 0arnere- B1.2 ?illion in hi0h
?i-*. 5hile -eep7ater pla!* 0arnere- the )o*t )one!@ there 7a* al*o intere*t in trat* in 7ater *hallo7er
than 600 ;eet@ aor-in0 to the ?8rea8. In all there 7ere *o)e 131 *8h trat* ?i- on in the *ale.
CDL Core Files 2014/2015 2AC Topicality Frontline: Coral ee!s
A"ir#ati$e
Topicality AFF
AFF
&AC "olvency: A/- >( 5 ?Can3t <efineA [1/1]
1. -he !nited "tates has .or1in$ refineries in the stat)s *)o as proven #y o)r
a#ility to refine the oil that is extracted in the stat)s *)o. -heir evidence is
theoretical and E)st says the refinin$ process is diffic)lt.
&. Domestic refinin$ is possi#le and more capacity is emer$in$.
6efev#re &'1,
[PenKa)in. Oil /eporter ;or the 5all 3treet Go8rnal. %3hale>Oil Poo) 3p8r* /e;inin0 Pin0e' 3/2/14
http"//online.7*K.o)/ne7*/artile*/3P10001424052702303874504579376962979450296]
<.3. re;iner* ha4enAt ?8ilt a )aKor ne7 ;8el>proe**in0 plant *ine 1976@ in part ?ea8*e o; en4iron)ental
re08lation*. P8t a ;loo- o; oil ;ro) #exa*@ O:laho)a an- &orth ,a:ota ha* o)panie* r8*hin0 to expan-
exi*tin0 plant* an- ?8il- *)all ne7 proe**or* aro8n- the o8ntr!.C Ialero Ener0! Corp. IHO _0.70D @
9arathon .etrole8) Corp. 9.C _1.20D an- other re;iner* are en0ineerin0 7a!* to expan- ;8el>)a:in0
apait! at their a0in0 plant* 7itho8t the o*t o; ?8il-in0 entirel! ne7 re;inerie* to ta:e a-4anta0e o; the
inrea*e in li0ht *7eet r8-e ;lo7in0 ;ro) <.3. 7ell*.C #he 0a*oline@ -ie*el an- other ;8el* the! are
pro-8in0 an either ?e ?8rne- in the <.3. or *ol- aro8n- the 7orl- ?ea8*e the! arenAt *8?Ket to the
export ?an Con0re** i)po*e- on r8-e in the earl! 1970*.C A)erian re;iner* are *et to a-- at lea*t
400@000 ?arrel* o; oil>re;inin0 apait! a -a! to exi*tin0 plant* ?et7een no7 an- 2018@ aor-in0 to
in;or)ation o)pile- ?! #he 5all 3treet Go8rnal an- the on*8ltin0 ;ir) I(3. I(3 0.00D #hat i* the
;8el>)a:in0 eE8i4alent o; on*tr8tin0 a ne7@ lar0e>*ale re;iner!.C On top o; that@ plan* are in the 7or:*
;or *e4eral plant* apa?le o; proe**in0 the 8ltrali0ht oil extrate- ;ro) the Ea0le =or- *hale ;or)ation in
3o8th #exa*. #ho*e ;ailitie*@ 7hih are relati4el! inexpen*i4e to ?8il-@ arenAt tehniall! on*i-ere-
re;inerie* ?ea8*e the! anAt han-le a o)plex arra! o; r8-e t!pe* or pro-8e a 7i-e )ix o; ;8el*.C #he*e
plant*@ alle- ]*plitter*] or ]topper*@] ta:e the 4er! li0ht oil one *tep lo*er to ?eo)in0 0a*oline an-
-ie*el. #hen the hal;>proe**e- ;8el an ?e *hippe- to Hatin A)eria@ E8rope an- A*ia@ 7here re;iner*
there ;ini*h the Ko?.