STRATEGIC MEMORANDUM:

TO:
FROM:

Analysis of Hillary & Women Voters in 2014

Interested Parties
Isaac Wright, Executive Director

DATE:

Correct The Record

November 6, 2014

Adrienne Elrod, Communications Director

An analysis of Hillary Clintons thematic messages over the final 30 days of the
midterm campaign trail revealed a key focus on advancing middle-class families,
women and children. A preliminary study of the election turnout suggests a strong
correlation between Clintons values and the values of American voters.
Womens support for Clinton translated to support for the candidates she backed in
2014, despite an overwhelming trend against Democrats in the election.
In the battlegrounds Clinton visited in 2014, the turnout percentage among women
was equal to that of the last midterm election in 2010. However, support among
women for the Democratic candidates in the states Clinton campaigned in improved
from support in 2010. Clintons support for advancing middle-class families, women
and children is a value shared by American women, and one for which they are
willing to take action, as evidenced by the increased support measured in the 2014
election.
According to CNN exit polls, there was a large gender gap with women supporting
the Democratic candidates whom Clinton campaigned for in higher numbers. The
percentage of women supporting Democrats whom Clinton campaigned for is both
higher than the general electorates support for the candidate and in many cases,
coincided with a greater gap between the overall electorate and women than in poll
numbers conducted before Clintons visit to the state.
This follows a marked distinction with women voters in the 2013 Virginia
Governors race where Hillary Clintons support for Democrat Terry McAuliffe
helped drive a distinct margin with women voters, putting McAuliffe in the
Governors office.
Collectively, the evidence from elections in Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana,
Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina and
Pennsylvania point to this conclusion, and are detailed below.

Colorado:
o In Colorado, the gender gap grew after Clintons visit to the state, with
Udall and Hickenloopers support among women growing, based on
an average of pre-Clinton polls compared with exit poll data.
o In Colorado, Governor Hickenlooper was narrowly reelected but in
exit polls, 12% more women supported Hickenlooper than the
Republican candidate. Before Clinton campaigned with Hickenlooper
on October 21, polls showed support for Hickenlooper with women an
average of 4.8 points higher than the general electorate.
After Clintons visit, the gender gap nearly tripled.
o While Senator Udall was narrowly defeated in his bid for reelection by
roughly 4 points, he led women voters by 8 points, according to exit
polls. Before Clintons visit to the state, Udall was polling an average of
4.8 points better with women, meaning that following Clintons visit
to the state. His support among women grew.

Georgia:
o Despite losing 45 53, women voted for Nunn in inverse numbers,
53-45.
o Women also supported Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jason
Carter 8% more than the general electorate (women, 52% in exit poll;
general electorate, 45%) and roughly 4 points higher than in polling
before Clintons campaigning in the state.

Illinois:
o In Illinois, 7% more women supported Quinn than Rauner, despite
Quinns roughly 5% loss to Rauner. Quinns support among women
was 8 points higher than the average of women support for Quinn in
polls conducted before Clintons visit.

Louisiana:

o Despite going into a runoff, Landrieu received roughly 42% of the vote
and before Clintons campaign stop in Louisiana, polls had her
receiving 38% of the vote. Among women, before Clintons visit, polls
found women voting about 10% more for Landrieu than Cassidy but
exit poll data shows Landrieu received the support of 48% of women,
12% greater than Cassidy. Landrieus support among women
increased following Clintons in-state event, as did Landrieus
statewide support.

Maine:
o In Maine, Michaud lost by roughly 4 points to LePage but led among
women by 5 points. Michaud trailed LePage 44 -48, but among
women, led 48-43 showing the support Clintons visit generated
among women for Michaud.

Michigan:
o Women supported Peters more than 20% over Land, contributing to
Peters greater than 10-point win over Land. In polls before Clinton
campaigned in the state, Peters led Land by about 15 points among
women and less than 10 with the general electorate. Clintons visit to
the state generated high ratio of women voters and wedged even
wider lead for Peters, particularly among women.
o While Gov. Snyder won reelection by less than five points, women
supported Schauer nearly 10 percent more than Snyder (8% - Schauer
53/Snyder 45), according to exit polls.

Minnesota:
o In Minnesota, Clintons visit drove energy for Franken, who beat
McFadden by 10 points and won the women vote by nearly 20 points.
o Clintons support of Dayton helped his support among women jump 5
points from the latest polls, before Clintons visit, to exit poll data
about women voters, who supported him 13% more than Johnson.

New Hampshire:
o Hassan won 53% of support, 3 points up from polls before Clintons
weekend in NH and 60% of women voters, up 8% from before Clinton
visited, leading over Havenstein among women by over 20 points.

o Shaheen beat Brown by roughly 4 points while polling before

Clintons visit showed her narrowly beating him, often within the
margin of error. The energy generated by Clintons late stop in New
Hampshire helped cement Shaheens victory and the nearly 20 point
greater support for Shaheen among women voters is further evidence
of Clintons energy and draw.
o In New Hampshire, the energy surrounding Clinton is evidenced by
the fact that Shaheens last TV ad of the cycle showed her with Hillary
Clinton while Scott Browns featured Rand Paul, sponsored by the
Chamber of Commerce.

New York:
o Cuomo safely beat Astorino in Clintons home state of New York and
women voted for Cuomo at almost twice the rate 61/33.

North Carolina:
o Hagan narrowly lost to Tillis but earned 54% of womens votes, 12%
more than Tillis. Before Clintons visit to the state, Hagans support
among women was roughly four points higher than the general
electorate, based on polls, and after Clinton campaigned with Hagan,
Hagans support among women was nearly 7 points higher than the
general electorate.

Pennsylvania:
o Women voted for Wolf 16% more than Corbett, according to exit polls,
and in 2010 women voted 50/50 for Corbett and the Democratic
candidate.
o Wolf won 10 percentage points more of the vote than Corbett and 16
percentage points more among women. Clintons message of
economic opportunity and a fresh start for the middle class in
Pennsylvania resonated with all voters and especially with women,
who resoundingly voted to oust Corbett.