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Expected Value (or EV) is a mathematical analysis of risk-reward from a specific action

(bet, raise, or call) in a poker hand. It shows the net of how much we would expect to
gain or lose per hand, on average, when we take that specific action. We want to choose
the action that maximizes our EV when deciding whether check or bet and fold, call, or
raise.
In each document, each individual row represents an EV calc for one HH. The right side
EV column has an auto-calculating formula already entered in for every row. You do
not need to do anything in those cells. Just leave them the way they are, and when you
enter in each variable for the row, you will find the answer to your EV. This is also true
for the documents that have a column that says 1-FE (1 Fold Equity); that column is
auto-calculating as well and it's best not to edit those cells.
SPREADSHEET #1: EV Call (All-in or River)
This is used to do the most basic EV calculation we always do when faced with a Call or
Fold pot odds decision. If villain bets $15 into a pot of $30 on the river, and we are
debating whether to call or fold:
1) The EV of a fold = 0. We're putting no more money into the pot, we're risking 0 to win
0, and so our EV = 0
2) EV of a Call = Reward * Our Equity - Risk * (1 - Our Equity)
Our reward is going to be the Current Pot Size + Villain's Bet Size. So using the above
example, our Reward = $30 + $15.
Our risk is simple: how much do we owe? Here, it's the $15 bet we have to call.
Our Equity = the % chance our hand will win on the river vs. villain's betting range. You
can use Pokerstove to find this vs. villain's range on an earlier street.
Or if you're facing a river bet, simply count the number of combos in villain's betting
range that you beat, and the number of combos that beat you.
Our Equity will then = # combos we beat / (# combos we beat + # combos that beat us)
In the above example, let's say we hold KQ on a board of K24rJ4 and villain bets the
river with a range of: {KK, JJ, AKs, KTs, K9s}. Here there are 6 combos that beat us
(one KK, three JJ, and two AKs because we block one K and there's one already on the
board), and 4 combos that we beat (two KTs, two K9s, again because two King's are
removed from the deck).
So our equity = # combos we beat / (# combos we beat + # combos that beat us)
= 4/(4 + 6)
= 4/10
= 40%
Then, our EV will be:

EV = $45 * 40% - $15 * (1- 40%)


= $18 - $15 * (60%)
= $18 - $9
= $9
We have a +EV call, so we should make the call. Everytime we make this call, we will
turn a $9 profit in the long-run.
You will see all of these variables entered into row on the document EV Call (All-in or
River). We're facing a bet size of $15, into a current pot size of $30, and our Equity is
40%. We don't need to enter anything in for the EV column. It will auto-calculate and
show that our EV = $9.
Now let's try playing with the variables and mass-producing many EV calcs in a short
period of time. Using the spreadsheet, find out what our EV in the above example would
be if villain's range were a little tighter & stronger and now our Equity was only 21%.
Change the equity column to 21%. You should find out that our EV now = -3.
So in this case we should fold. If our EV is negative, the folding is best. Folding is 0EV
and we want to chose the play that maximizes our EV.
Now imagine the villain puts out a tiny blocker bet of $7 into our pot of $30. How will
this affect our EV? Our EV of calling now = 1.8. This time we again have a +EV call.
In row 2, try an example where we're facing a bet size of 75 into a current pot of 75.
What does our equity need to be to have a breakeven 0EV call? You probably know this
already, but when we're facing a pot-sized bet, we need at least 33.33% equity to
breakeven or turn a profit. Enter in 33.3333 for our Equity, and you should now find that
our EV = 0.
Facing a Raise:
Let's do one more example where we bet on the river and are facing a raise. We're
debating whether to call or fold. When facing a raise, the math becomes just a little bit
more complicated.
Imagine you bet 70 into a pot of 100, and then you get raised to 210. If you're facing a
raise, then the "Bet Size" column will be how much you still owe. Since we bet 70 and
got raised to 210, we still owe 140 more. Enter in 140 for the "Bet Size" column. The
"Current Pot" will equal the original pot size (100) + our initial bet size (70). Enter in
170 under the Current Pot column. If our equity is only 27% vs. a tight & nutted river
raising range, then our EV = -18.5. We should bet/fold here.
Try one of your own hands where you were debating an all-in or river call. You can see
that you can use these spreadsheets to mass produce several EV calcs in a short period of
time. Take 15 minutes to analyze three similar hands/decisions at once. Or you can
generate several EV calcs out of just one of your hand histories. How?

a) Change your Holecards. What if your starting hand was AK instead of KQ? Your
equity should improve a little bit, which often has a very significant impact on your EV.
What if your starting hand was a little weaker? Figure out what the bottom of your
calling range should be, then you know you can call with that and every better hand.
b) Tweak Villain's Range. What is his river betting range is a little wider and weaker?
What if it's a little tighter and stronger? What if it's tighter but more polarized towards
nuts or air?
c) Change the bet size. What if he bet 75% pot on the river instead of 67% pot.

SPREADSHEET #2: EV Bet or Raise (All-in or River)


This spreadsheet can be used in any situation where you're shoving all-in, or making a bet
on the river. For example, maybe you were facing a 4-bet and debating whether to 5-bet
all-in preflop. Maybe you want to bet/3bet all-in on the flop for thin value/protection, or
you're deciding whether to raise all-in on the turn over villain's bet. Maybe you're
debating whether to make a thin value bet on the river, or fire a 3rd barrell with a busted
draw.
Background: The Fold Equity EV Formula
For these situations, you will use the standard fold equity equation (even if you're not
bluffing or semi-bluffing, but instead you're making a thin value-bet, we still use the
same formula that is entered into this spreadsheet). The entire equation is spelled out
below if you want to understand where it comes from, but it is simplified and autocalculating on the spreadsheet document. All you have to do is enter in the variables.
EV Bet = % Villain Folds * Current Pot Size + % Villain Calls * (Our Equity *
Amount We Win - Villain's Equity * Amount We Risk)
% Villain Folds is our Fold Equity
% Villain Calls = (1 - Fold Equity)
Amount We Win = (Current Pot Size + Villain's Call Size)
Our Equity is our hand's equity vs. the villain's calling range only (not his entire range)
Villain's Equity = (1 - Our Equity)
Amount We Risk = Our Bet Size
Breaking this down further, we get:
EV Bet = Fold Equity * Current Pot Size + (1 - Fold Equity)*((Our Equity*(Current
Pot Size + Villain's Call Size) - (1 - Our Equity)*Our Bet Size))
You can see there are basically two sides to this equation. The left side shows our EV
when the villain folds to our bet or raise. Our EV of that part is going to be the
probability that the villain folds multiplied by the amount of dead money already in the

pot that we will pick up.


The right side shows the EV when the villain calls our bet. Even when he calls,
sometimes we will win the pot, so we need to take account of Our Equity vs. his calling
range multiplied by how much we win if he calls. We then need to subtract from that
how much we lose multiplied by Villain's Equity, or the probability that villain will win
the pot when he calls us. All of this of course will be multiplied by the probability that
the villain does actually call us.
Definition of the variables in the spreadsheet
Villain's Call Size is how much additional he has to call. For example, if he bets 10 and
you raise to 30, he still owes 20.
Equity vs. Calling range = our hand's equity vs. only the portion of his range he bet/calls
or check/calls (exclude the bet/fold hands or check/fold hands in his earlier range)
Villain's call size = how much additional money must he put in. For example, if you
donk-lead for 50 on the river, just enter 50. However, if he was the initial better and leads
for 100, and then you raise to 300, enter 200 because he only owes 200 more.
"1-FE" or (1 - Fold Equity) is an auto-calculating formula already entered in for each
row. You do not need to enter anything in for this variable.
Getting Started:
The first example is already entered into row 2. Let's say villain bets 30 into a pot of 50
on the turn, and you decide to semi-bluffraise all-in to 95 with a bare flush draw. Your
"Equity vs. calling range" is going to be about 19% with bare flush draw and only one
card to come. The "Current Pot Size we steal" if he folds will be 80 (the original 50 in
the pot + the 30 he just bet). "Our Bet or Raise Size" is 95. "Villain's call size" will be
65 (he already put 30 in the pot, so he only owes 65 more to call). Now let's say he's
bluffing or bet/folding with 40 combos of hands, and he's value-betting & calling a raise
with 60 combos of hands. Our Fold Equity = 40/(40 + 60) = 40%. (You'll see 1 - Fold
Equity auto-calculates to 60%).
You can see in this example that we have a slightly +EV shoveraise with an EV of
positive 2.36. In this spot when we raise to 95 bbs, we will turn a net profit in the long
run of around 2 bbs each time we make the play.
What if the villain is bluffing just a bit less frequently and our Fold Equity is now
reduced to 37%. Enter in 37% for Fold Equity. Now you can see we have an EV of -1.5,
and we should not make this bluffraise (unless we want to do so for metagame purposes
to earn "future EV").

SPREADSHEET #3: EV Bet or Raise (with money behind)


This spreadsheet is almost the same as above, but this time after we make a bet (or raise),
there is still room left in the stacks for the villain to raise our bet.
The additional variables are:
% Raised: this tells us the proportion of the villain's range that he will raise with. (Note:
Fold Equity + % Called + % Raised should all add up to 100% exactly)
Raise Size: How much does villain raise to when he raises?
Equity vs. Raising Range: What is our hand's equity vs. the villain's raising range?
You can see the examples for our different river value bet sizes from Video 3 are already
entered in to rows 2-5.
MISCELLANEIOUS EV CALCULATION SPREADSHEETS
The first three documents can each be used to handle several different situations in NLHE
and they will address a large percentage of the EV calcs you'll need to do. Nevertheless,
the following documents are useful in some very specific cases.
EV River Checkback
This will tell you what our EV will be when we checkback a hand with some showdown
value on the river. This should be used in comparison with the "EV Bet or Raise" on the
river to determine which line has the higher EV and is more profitable: betting the river,
or checking back?
The EV of a river checkback is very easy to calculate.
EV check = Current Pot Size * Our Equity
In other words, what % of the time is our hand good on the river vs. villain's range, and
how much do we when when our hand is good.
The EV should always be positive or 0. It will never be negative.
EV Turn Checkback
This one adds another layer to the above spreadsheet. There are basically three different
pieces of the EV equation.
a) when the river will go check-check to showdown
b) when the villain will lead the river
c) when the villain will check the river and you will bet
The individual EVs of each of the 3 scenarios are added together to find the total EV.

EV river check OOP


This is most useful when you are debating whether to make a very thin river value bet
OOP or whether to check (and either check/call or check/fold). The EV of the thin value
bet can be determined using the EV Bet or Raise document outlined above.
Here:
EV river check OOP = (% Villain checksback * Our Equity vs. his checkback range *
Current Pot Size) + (% Villain bets * Our EV when he bets)
Of course, our EV when he bets will be dependent on whether we are check/calling or
check/folding. If we are check/folding, then our EV when he bets = 0. If we are
check/calling, then we need to use the EV Call document to find the EV when he bets.
If you have questions when using any of these spreadsheets, feel free to email Mike at
neverbluffing30@gmail.com.