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(bet, raise, or call) in a poker hand. It shows the net of how much we would expect to
gain or lose per hand, on average, when we take that specific action. We want to choose
the action that maximizes our EV when deciding whether check or bet and fold, call, or
raise.
In each document, each individual row represents an EV calc for one HH. The right side
EV column has an auto-calculating formula already entered in for every row. You do
not need to do anything in those cells. Just leave them the way they are, and when you
enter in each variable for the row, you will find the answer to your EV. This is also true
for the documents that have a column that says 1-FE (1 Fold Equity); that column is
auto-calculating as well and it's best not to edit those cells.
SPREADSHEET #1: EV Call (All-in or River)
This is used to do the most basic EV calculation we always do when faced with a Call or
Fold pot odds decision. If villain bets $15 into a pot of $30 on the river, and we are
debating whether to call or fold:
1) The EV of a fold = 0. We're putting no more money into the pot, we're risking 0 to win
0, and so our EV = 0
2) EV of a Call = Reward * Our Equity - Risk * (1 - Our Equity)
Our reward is going to be the Current Pot Size + Villain's Bet Size. So using the above
example, our Reward = $30 + $15.
Our risk is simple: how much do we owe? Here, it's the $15 bet we have to call.
Our Equity = the % chance our hand will win on the river vs. villain's betting range. You
can use Pokerstove to find this vs. villain's range on an earlier street.
Or if you're facing a river bet, simply count the number of combos in villain's betting
range that you beat, and the number of combos that beat you.
Our Equity will then = # combos we beat / (# combos we beat + # combos that beat us)
In the above example, let's say we hold KQ on a board of K24rJ4 and villain bets the
river with a range of: {KK, JJ, AKs, KTs, K9s}. Here there are 6 combos that beat us
(one KK, three JJ, and two AKs because we block one K and there's one already on the
board), and 4 combos that we beat (two KTs, two K9s, again because two King's are
removed from the deck).
So our equity = # combos we beat / (# combos we beat + # combos that beat us)
= 4/(4 + 6)
= 4/10
= 40%
Then, our EV will be:
a) Change your Holecards. What if your starting hand was AK instead of KQ? Your
equity should improve a little bit, which often has a very significant impact on your EV.
What if your starting hand was a little weaker? Figure out what the bottom of your
calling range should be, then you know you can call with that and every better hand.
b) Tweak Villain's Range. What is his river betting range is a little wider and weaker?
What if it's a little tighter and stronger? What if it's tighter but more polarized towards
nuts or air?
c) Change the bet size. What if he bet 75% pot on the river instead of 67% pot.