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GENEVA: The death rate in the Ebola epidemic raging in west Africa has reached around
70%, the World Health Organisation said Tuesday.
What were finding is 70% mortality, said Bruce Aylward, assistant director-general of the
WHO.
The number of cases is continuing to spiral in the three hardest-hit countries, Liberia, Sierra
Leone and Guinea.
It could reach 5,000 to 10,000 cases per week by the first week of December, Aylward
said, though he underlined that that was just a working forecast to help guide the
international fight against the virus.
Its been running at about a thousand cases a week now for about three to four weeks, he
told reporters in Geneva.
The labs sometimes cant keep up with the amount of specimens theyre getting, he added,
saying the real case-count and death toll remained unclear as a result.
The latest case-count in the Ebola outbreak is 8,914, with a death toll of 4,447.
The overwhelming majority of the cases are still in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea,
Aylward said.
On paper, that suggests a survival rate of 50 per cent, but the figures mask the true picture,
he underlined.
There are this many cases that were aware of, this many deaths that have been reported to
us, but that doesnt mean you divide one by the other and get how many this disease kills,
Aylward said.
To get that number, you need to take a bunch of people, follow them right through the
course of their disease, and understand how many survive. That subset of people, who we
know were sick, and we know their final outcome, what were finding is 70 per cent
mortality. Its almost the exact same number across the three countries, he said.
This is a high mortality disease in any circumstance, but especially in these places where
its happening, he added.
The international community has stepped up its anti-Ebola fight, with the UN Mission for
Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) launching a strategy to try to rein in the disease.
Known as the 70-70-60 plan, it ensures that 70% of burials are conducted safely and 70%
of suspected cases isolated, within 60 days.
These targets could turn the tide of the disease, Aylward said, adding that the
international community was pushing the system hard to reach it.
Ebola spreads via the body fluids of patients, and can even be passed on by their corpses,
meaning that there have been massive efforts to stem traditional funeral rights that involve
touching a body.
Aylward noted that each Ebola patient infected around two other people, on average.
Every time you isolate another patient, every time you have a safe burial, youre taking
some of the heat out if this outbreak, said Aylward.
But this is Ebola. This is a horrible, unforgiving disease. Youve got to get to zero. And what
gets you down to a level of control may not be and usually isnt whats going to get you
down to zero, he said.