Human Population Growth

Population Biology

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html

Population Biology: populations & the

Environment

Write down the current human population:

How to do we define a population???

A populations extent is often userdefined

Northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) on St. Paul Island,

off the coast of Alaska
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Describing Populations
How many individuals are Births & immigration add
individuals to a population.
there? = ,
How are the individuals
dispersed in space? =,.

Quantifying Population Dynamics

Immigration

Counted directly
Estimated based on some sign

Births

Mark & recapture

What factors influence

Population
size
the number & age of
individuals? = population
dynamics
Emigration
Deaths & emigration
remove individuals from
a population.

Deaths

Radio-tagging & Tracking

Common Raven (Corvus

corax)
Olympic Peninsula, WA

Common Raven (Corvus corax)

Mojave Desert, CA

Radio-tagging & Tracking

American Crocodile (Crocodylus acutus)

Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Dispersion

Clumped Distributions

How are the individuals distributed in the

landscape?
What factors influence that distribution?
B,. factors
A,. factors

Uniform Distribution

Random Distribution

Life Tables

Survivorship Curves

Number of survivors (log scale)

1000

100

Females
10
Males

1
0

Life tables are age-specific summaries of vital

statistics such as birth rate & death rate
Groups of individuals of the same age = ,

10

Age (years)

11

Male & female Beldings ground squirrels

12

Reproductive Tables

Idealized Survivorship Curves

1,000

Used to examine agespecific reproductive

rates

Number of survivors (log

scale)

100
II

10

III
1
100

50

Percentage of maximum life span

Type I = ,
Type II = ,
Type III = ,

13

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Reproductive Strategies

Semelparity / Big-bang Reproduction

Different species evolved different reproductive

patterns
Trade-offs exist between different patterns
What is the age of first reproduction?
How often do individuals reproduce?

Spawning salmon

Semelparity / Big-bang reproduction = ,

Iteroparity = ,.
Agave, or century plant

How many offspring are produced?

15

Parental Care Patterns Show Trade-Offs

To increase their
fitness, different
species evolved
various patterns
Many offspring,
no parental care
Few offspring, lots
of parental care
Within the same
species, tradeoffs
exist between the
components of
fitness (survival &
reproduction)

Investment in the Next Generation

Plants usually
dont show
parental care

Female

80

60

40

20

Male
Parents surviving the following winter
(%)

100

16

Plants do vary their

investment toward
individual offspring

(a) Most weedy plants, such as this dandelion, grow quickly &
produce a large number of seeds, ensuring that at least some will
grow into plants & eventually produce seeds themselves.

Reduced brood
size

Normal brood
size

Enlarged brood
size

17

(b) Some plants, such as this coconut palm, produce a moderate

number of very large seeds. The large endosperm provides nutrients
for the embryo, an adaptation that helps ensure the success of a
relatively large fraction of offspring.

18

What Limits Population Size?

Density Dependence

Survival & reproduction influenced by:

4.0

10,000

Territoriality
Resource availability

3.8
Average clutch size

Average number of seeds

per reproducing individual
(log scale)

,factors:

1,000

100

3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8

Competition

3.6

10

100

Seeds planted per m 2

,.factors:

(a) Plantain. The number of seeds

produced by plantain (Plantago major)
decreases as density increases.

Intrinsic factors like genetic variation

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Density of females
(b) Song sparrow. Clutch size in the song sparrow
on Mandarte Island, British Columbia, decreases
as density increases & food is in short supply.

Why is reproduction reduced by increasing

numbers of the same species (conspecifics)?

Climate change, pollution, etc.

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Territoriality

20

Isle Royale Moose Population

FIELD STUDY
Researchers regularly surveyed the population of
moose on Isle Royale, Michigan, from 1960 to 2003. During that
time, the lake never froze over, & so the moose population was
isolated from the effects of immigration & emigration.

Why do some animals have territories?

RESULTS
Over 43 years, this population experienced
two significant increases & collapses, as well as several less severe
fluctuations in size.

How does this behavior affect their

populations?

21

Snowshoe Hare & Lynx

Moose population size

2,500

What factors
influence the
number of moose?
Are they densitydependent or
densityindependent?

Steady decline probably

caused largely by wolf
predation

2,000
1,500
1,000

Dramatic collapse caused by severe

winter weather & food shortage,
leading to starvation of more than
75% of the population

500
0
1960

1970

1980
Year

1990

2000

22

What Does Exponential Growth Mean?

The Mr. Peanut
Challenge: eat
peanuts exponentially
each day

Some population
cycles are tightly
linked
Snowshoe hare

120

Lynx

80

40

0
1850

1875

1900
Year

1925

23

Lynx population size

(thousands)

Hare population size

(thousands)

1-day 1 peanut
160

2nd day 2 peanuts

3rd day 4 peanuts
4th day 8 peanuts

How many peanuts do

you need to eat on the
last day of the month?

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Human Population Growth

% Increase in Global Human Population

Good news: %
increase is
getting smaller

1950-1990 doubled from 2.5 billion to 5 billion.

8-12 billion before 2099
During each lecture, >10,000 are born, ~3 per
25
second!

The total
number of
births/year is
still increasing

2
1.8
Percent increase

Bad news: 1%
of 7 billion is
still larger than
2% of 3 billion

2.2

1.6

2003

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

1950

1975

2000
Year

2025

2050
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Can the Earth Support 9 Billion People?

Human Population Growth

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html

Write down the human population from the

beginning:

We can expect at least 9 billion people by 2050

We are degrading the environment faster than it can
replace itself

Write down the current human population:

Many resources are finite on a human time scale

How many people were born during this

lecture?

People in wealthy countries use far more resources &

create more pollution
Political & social challenges contribute to the disequilibrium

Can the Earth sustain this rate of human

population growth?

27

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Ecological Footprint