Introduction to Reliability Engineering John Wiley & Sons ‘New York * Chichester * Brisbane +Copyright © 1987, by Joe Why & Sans tn the Fermaaoa Darna Ju Wir Sean eof Con tig abt DateCHAPTER 6 Loads, Capacity, and Reliability Inthe preceding chapters failure rates were used to emphasize the strong ‘dependence of reliability on time. Empirically, these fale rates were found to increase with the complexity of systent anc also withthe load placed ‘on a system. In this chapter we explore the concepts of loads and capac S-_tothtoveae rea wadiona denn apres angsty on do an atonal nag no the et hte fre res a ling wen ae Ina numberof engineering Fields ithas been customary to define safety factors and margins inthe folowing way. Suppose that we define {asthe load ona system, structure, o piece of equipment and asthe corresponding ‘apacity. The safety factor ie then defined as ou Aermately, the safety margin may be used. Ie defined by = 3) Failure then occurs if the safer factor falls to a value less than one o if the safety margin become negative The concepts of load and eapacty are employed moet widely instruc tural enginering and related Geld, where the lad is usually referred to 2s stress and the capacity as strength, However, they have much wider applicability. For example, ia plece of eletrie equipment is under consi eration, we may speak of electric load and expat fora elecounmuniatons te ad an ime and fr a Capacity maybe ue te ormulted inte ver, and must nthe ado made large enough Of bch the lad hough the a alo ra ar the Bn ete Ios and apace anes he determina i petal ae the lading, fore tress in prob > ae comes frm the nt that decrease the probably a which m ato beCHAPTER 6 Loads, Capacity and Reliabilinn 61. INTRODUCTION the pocaing chapters falar rates were we to emphasize the stron dependence of relabty one Einpircaly these alae tte we eee to ineease with the complet of oyster an also with the lend paca on sytem In ths chapter we explore the concept of lata el cecay both orl relbilty to raditoaldesiapproachcs sng aes fecos aa to gun atonal insight inthe rato between re soto dom lading, wearin, and weatout lwanutnber of engineering eds it hasbeen customary to define sfey factors and margins inthe following way. Suppose that ne dene fe laud on assem, structure or pice af wqipmen and astheconegonting apaciy. The safety factors then dete se ri Alternately, dhe safety margin may be use Is defined by Failure then occurs if the sfey factor falls to a vale less than one, or if the safety margin Becomes negative ‘The concepts of load and capacity are employed most widely ia struc tural engineering and related feds, where the load i usually referee & stress and the capacity as strength, However, they have’ much wide applicability. For example, ia piece of elec equipment is under cons ‘ration, we may speak of electric loud and capacity Tor telecommenicasens system load and capacity may be measured in ters of telephone cals per ni time, and foram energy conversion system thermal unk for load rd Capacity may be used. The point i that» wide Yariety of applicadons can be formulated in terms of load snd capacly. For a given appicadon, how ver Fand e must have the same uni nthe traditional approach to design, the safery factor or margin i made large enough to more than compensate for uncertainties the luce ‘of both the lad and the eapacty ofthe system under consideration. Thus although these uncertainties case the load and the capacity to be viewed 25 random variables, the calculations are deterministic using for the mon Dirt the best estimates of load and capacity. The probabilistic analjis of loads acd capacities necessary for estimating relabity clarifies snd ration ales the determination and we of safety factors and marginn This analyis 's pascularly useful fo situations in which no fixed bound can be put on the loading, for example, with earthquakes, floods and other natural he nomena, oF for situations in which flaws or other shortcomings may rule in systems wth unusually smal capacities, Similarly, when economies rather than safety isthe primary criteria for setting design margins, the wade-o of performance versus rehabity can bet be sudied by examining thei ‘creme in probably of failure a load and capacity approach one snother The expression for reliability in terms of the random varies and ¢ omes from the notion that there is always ome small probability of failure that decreases atthe safety factor ix increased. We may define the allure probably a8 p= PU> eh 3) In this content the reliability i defined as the nonfailure probably oF reinp, a) hich may also be expressed as r=P| 65) In treating loads and capaciies probabilsically, we must exercise & reat deal of cae in expressing the types of lads and the behavior of the ‘pacity. IF this is done, we may use the resulting formal not only to provide a probabilistic elation between safety factors and reliably, but also to gain a better understanding of the relations between loading, ex cts, andthe time dependence of failure rate as exhibited, for exasple In the bathtub curve In Section 6.2 we develop expressions for reliability fora single lading and then, in Section 6.3, relate the reuls to safety factors. Beeause bath loads and capacities are frequently expresied in terms of extremevaluc distributions, we discus such distributions and relate them to relay in Section 64. In Section 6.5 we consider repettive loading and discus the172 Land Capac and Rei éircumstances under which time-independent capacity the capacty are removed to appeat. failure rates are constant in systems with known 1m the concluding section these restriction op 0 demonsirate how wearin and wearout sey 62 RELIABILITY WITH A SINGLE LOADING {mn this section we derive the relations between lad, ca for syuems tha are loaded only once. The resukingrelgbily Gas depend on time, forthe relibity ts just the probably thar he eee survives the application of the loud, Nevertheless before a for the reliability can be derived, the tes and capacity must be cleary understood pacity and reliably ‘apremiong rictions on the nature ofthe loads Losd Application ito the maximum i of application unt the load is removed, Pguee 6. indies the tne dependence of several nang pate de ee be treated at single on loading | provided that appropriate rearetons soe Figure 6.1a represents single loading of finite duration. Missiles dur ally ing luna once hay feature of applied applied in Fig. 6.1, during I loadings beginning The weakening capacity viewed as loading valve, Th or the wo itude, th ot flan satya or peti he =a fire it will fail b caret aad re ue rae ey bee in Chapuer‘ircumstances under which failure ate are constant in systems wth known timeindependent capacity. In the concluding section these restrictions on the capacity are removed to demonstrate how wearin and westout effets appear 62 RELIABILITY WITH A SINGLE LOADING {In this section we derive the relations between oad, capacity, and reliability for systems that are loaded only once, The resulting relabiity does aot depend on time, for the reliably just the probably that the system survives the application of the load, Nevertheless, before the expressions forthe reliability canbe derived, the restrictions onthe nature ofthe lows and capacity must be clearly understood, Load Application, Inreferring othe load on asystem, we are in fac referring tothe maximum load from the beginning of application until the load is removed Figure 6.1 indicates the time dependence of several lading patterns that may be treated as single on loading provided that sppropricte Festicions ae igure 61a represents single loading offrite duration. Mises dur Reba ih Single Loading 7 ing aunch, ashbulbs, and any numberof other devices that are wed only fnce have such loadings. Such one-ime-only loads are alo a ubiquitous feature of manufacturing processes, occurring for instance when tongue i applied to a bolt or pressure ie applicd to a rivet. Loading often is not applied ina smooth manner, but rather a series of shock, at shown in Fig 6.10. This behavior would be typical of the vibrational loading on a structure during an earthquake and of the impact lading om an aicralt during landing. In many stations, the extreme vahie of many short-time loadings may be treated asa single loading provided that there isa definite beginning and end to the disurbance giving rie to The duration ofthe lod in Fig. 61a and 6 short enough that no weakening of the system capacity takes place, If no decreawe in system ‘apacity is possbe, the situations shown in Figs. Ge and d may alo be eed a singe loadings, even though they are not of ite duration ‘The Toading shown in Fig. ie i typeal ofthe dead loads fom the weight of structures; these increase during construction and then remain aa constant Value. This formulation ofthe loading i widely used in structural analysis wen the load-bearing capacity not only may remain constant, bt may in or the work-hardening of metals, Subject to the same restrictions, dhe patterns shown in Fig 6.1d may be viewed 35 a single loading. Provided thatthe peaks are ofthe sume mage nude, the system will either fal the fest time the load is applied or wll not fil at all: Under such eycic loading, however, the assumption dat the system capacity will not decrease with time shouldbe suspect. Metal fatigue and other wear effec ate Hikely to weaken the capacity of the astem grad tally, a described in Section 6.6, inilary, the values of peak magnitudes vary from eyelet cl, we mist consider the time dependence of reliability explcly a in Section 6.3, Thus far we have assumed that system i subjected to only ome load and that reliability is determined bythe eapacy ofthe system as 4 whole to resist this load. In reality a system i invariably subjected toa varety of sllferene loads ic does noc have the capacity to sustain any one of these it wil fal An obvious example apiece of machinery or eter equipment. ‘each of whose components are subjected to differen loads failure of any ‘one component willmake the rystem fai. Amore monolithic ructure, such 35a dam, is subject to matic loads from its own weight, dynamic loads from arthquakes, Nood loadings, and so on, Nevertheless, the considerations that follow remain applicable, provided thatthe load are considered in terms ofthe probabityofs particular failure mode or ofthe lading ofa particular component. Ifthe failure modes can be asumed to be approx Imately independent of one another, the eit of the overall tem ean be calculated as the product ofthe failure mode reliabiles, as dscused in Chapter 4Lond, Capac, nd Rei Definiti Te derive an expression forthe relay, we vst first define independent PDFS for the load, 1, ad forthe capac Lee fu dl = Ptctets a 65) be the probability that the load is beween ! and J + d Similar Side Plesecesd be the probaily thatthe capacity asa value between cand ¢ + de. Thus fu anit fe) ate the necesary PDFs: we include the serps any posible confusion bet be defined. They are avoid een the wo, The corresponding CDF may sts n00 = [sueyae, 6a) Fd = f garyar 69) We consider fitt x system with a known capacity cand a distribution ‘of posible loads, as shown in Fig. 62a. For fiaed the relabily of a ‘item is just the probability that < 6 the shaded area inthe fours The, 6.10) ‘The reliability, therefore, i leary, fora system of kno > and to zero as e— 0. Just (0), the CDF ofthe load evaluated at own capacity, thereby i equal to one a Now suppose thatthe capacity als involves uncertainty: itis described by the PDF .(). The expected value ofthe relays thes obtained Feng Zo be LA... averaging over the di ‘Suhstiuing in Ea, 6 Te failure probably > Alternately, we may we bain orth a , ‘As shown in Fig. 63; t = recs1% Loads, Capi, end Rly Definitions To derive an expression forthe reliabity, we mut first define independent PDFS for the load, I, and forthe cpaciy, Let fi at = PU 1+ at) 65) be the probability that the load is between land ! + dl. Siitary et. fale) de Plece 3} = Ply > )P le > 2} +++ Play > 2 6.70) so that for NF) << I we have Finally since the CDF of xs defined by Puls) = Pl, <2} = 1 = Play > ah or 20 = Nivo. 607) we may combine the foregoing equations to obtain EXAMPLE 64 FG) = 1 (LRA = Fao = Fk 672) sews ita sembly of age bt dete pice of machinery ees tha 1 we assume that ll he x are dentally distributed, we may simplify ih tines bryeenmork mations ieone ised fons peo this result by replacing the by Py. We thus oben ‘dng there wimpact lang on he leading i deseived y Ey an impale of more hen ye achinery each time ati set down. The impulse 7 6.62 with a = 0.08 sec/kg «m, (a) Lf, in the initial design, TS rages bai what setae pry othe aaembly prove (It en, ecg aS reat tg tm the COE, we etn , ming siren comarca fie) = NUL = FseaT fe or 2 ty, what mat hepa for mp aig be : i To iustrate,n Fig. 6.9 the dated lines represen minimum exreme-value E Sean (0) The cpa or ing lon ing ice = 240 bg mc There diseibusons, ith he pact ditebton once agin the nora dstibuion § prob Swen intern of the reduced variate a The apaion of simu extreme vals treaty calculations w= 1-H =1-¢0 is often refered to a the chain rule, since a chain (stem) i no stronger 1250) = 0058 = 53% 4 than its weakest link (componend), For example, suppose that we are to taleaate the relabity x0) ofa system subject toa constant load. From Eas. 7 and 6-18 we recall that at constant load te reliability is just the CCDF tfthe system capacity. I the eapacty in Ea, 618 given by Fy the rim txtremevalue distribution forthe capacity, we hate, using Eq. 6.73, 10) = 1 FD where Fs undersond to represent the capacity ofthe parent distribution, a i that , of any one of N Mential components (inks) of a nonredundant inimum Extreme Values system (hain) For ala thatis sufficiently small, we may take F() <1. Then writing the righthand side of Eq 675 in terme of binomial coeficens as The distribution of minimum extreme vilies may be detived in a manner analogous to that just di gu wo that just discusted, Our primary se for then iin ecrbing ‘system capacity distributions that depend on a weakest component or mene ‘ray 2 ber. gun we assume that here are random arable ray n= - NFD +190 Load, apa, and Retain 0 that for NFA 1, we obtain AD = 1 ~ NFo(0, 67) EXAMPLES: (Gos hundred foot eng of chain mst haves ire probability of 20H ander «preted lad. A numberof 1k ade he ooo ad. What isthe largest ere protaiy tha anes Salt Let at ru be the probaly of fare for 1, Seecthey.tnadon, et Wand Ta eae P= = tw = 11 = Rem, Hand the ages sepa proba Pam dane= 04 sree Disritins 191 -Asymplotic Extreme-Value Distributions The extreme value distributions discussed inthe preceding subsections serve to illustrat, ina simple way the effect of maximum extreme values ofthe Jeading on (the reliability at known capacity, and the effet of minimum ‘extreme values in eapacty on rl, the telly with constant load. Ta Pratice, however, the use of Eqs. 6.58 or 6.73 forthe CDFs may become Cumbersome. Often N, the umber of variables over which the extremes in the foregoing equationsare taken, i very lage, tis known a all inlay the assumption that all the x ae identically distributed may not be valid and even the assumption thatthe variables ae independent may be suspect. As anillustraton of thee complications, consider Fig 6.10 in which is shown both a PDF for average hourly wind velocity and the annua max um ofthe average hourly wind speed. It would be diffi to obtain the ‘maximum PDF directly from the hourly average owing tothe large value (FN = 365.25 x 24 = 8766. More important, the ditsibons forthe hourly ARLE G4 Esireme Valu Dstibaions —to0-erlPane 192 Land, Copcy ond Retaiiy averages vary both with the time of day and with the season, Asa resin ‘many situations the extreme-vaue distribution it measured aie {an attempt to measure the parent distribution ta ‘measure direc maim ‘earthquakes, and so on Data on exreme values are likely tobe {mom annual flow of a river or carthquakes. tis therelore benef can be formulted iy without uments are insaled ty ind mss, maximum ground acelcratons feng cace, particularly if maximum siderable intervals, for example, the mag ‘he maximum annul sccelersion fog ica i few-parameter analytic diriulons for modeling distributions of extreme values Meth {iil to those wed in the relly tenting discussed in Chapeer Sey then be employed to fit the available data t's model Th tay be uted to extrapolate to higher and les aad less probable capacities. There are three lasses of asympiotc extreme-valuedistibutons,*the GOES for which ae given in Table 61. They may be shown to woe oh the numb of variables over which he extreme taken, betes en ith remarkably few restrictions om the forms of the pareoe denn ee The cstributions afer both inthe domain ofthe exe soloe ag ‘and in the form ofthe upper or lower tail ofthe parc ison Type We shall conceitrate our attention frst onthe spe 1 or Gumbel ions. The maximum exireme-ralue distribution Resuls on a ‘ome large in Eq. 6.0 when forlarge the paremt danions sisi ing be ashe fort Fete (6.78) | | Le and gi iui bution w Eg coFin The para heres PI and feed patie na sis earl vith a and a vad192 Loads, Capi, and Rely averages vary both wih the time of day and with the season. Asa result, in ‘many situations the extreme-valuedietibution is measured dee, without an attempt to measure the parent distribution, Instruments ae tall to measure directly maximum Wind guns, maxim ground accelerations fron, ‘earthquakes, and 50 on, ‘Data on extreme values are likely o be scarce, particularly if maximum (orminimam) evens occurs at considerable intervals or cxarnple the mae ‘mum annual flow of a river or the maximurn annual aecleration from earthquakes. It istherefore beneficial! Tew-parameter analytic distributions fan be formulated for modeling distributions of extreme values. Methods Similar to those used in the reliability testing discussed in Chapter 3 con then be employed to fit the avilable data to model. The meal, in tur Imay be used to extrapolate to higher and less probable loads, ot loner 2nd les probable capacities There are three classes of asymptotic extreme-value disibutions* the {CDF for which are given in Table 6.) They may be shown to aie when the numberof variables over which the extreme is taken, becomes large, ith remarkably few restiions on the forms of the parent drbutine, The distributions differ both inthe demain of the extreme-valae» and inthe form of the upper or lower tl ofthe parent dariutions Tper We shall conceitrate our attention fire on the ype Lor Gumbel distibu ‘ions, The maximum extreme-alue distibution Fesuls from leg N be: ‘come large in Fa. 6.60 when for largexthe parent distribution has the orm Paey= 1 — 0 wid sre cle Dirt 188 and (isan increasing function of. Thus normal and exponential parent ‘isutbutons both give rise to the type I maximum extreme-vahie distr Buon when becomes ge , Equation 6.60 may be ued to show that the PDF corresponding tothe COD in Table 6.1 for the type I maximum extreme-value distribution is forahermen-erm, enya 67) The parameter wis the valve ofy for which the maximum in 9) occurs, whereas sa measure of te iperion, The mean and aan are given went (6.80) and a where y = 05 (htsere vale darbution fs ploted in Fig. 6.11 ‘swith the normal distribution, ts offen useFul to express the extreme value distribution i tras ofa edced variate in order to express the PDF ina parameterfree standardized form. I'we define the reduced variate wel 6.32) 7 6.89) bo) Because ofthe form ofthe CD, the type I istributionis frequently referred toa the double exponential distribution. This quantity i tabulated in Ap- en C Peet aralogously, we may show that the type I minimum extreme-ralve lisibution reals as N-> = fr a parent disribution with exponential ike lower tails The type I PDF corresponding wo F(2)in Table 6.1 is then i) experi], -ecise 68) with a mean of naan (638) and a vaianée of ore 686)194 Load, Copciy nd Reliilty The PDF for thi minimum extreme-aue dsribution is plowed in Fig 6.118. The able in Appendix C forthe largest extreme variable nay ay be used for the smallest value. Because of the anaymmetsy of the ag Aliscibations, with w= ua, (67) we again obtain Eq. 688 asthe CDF for w. Type The type I distributions differ from th the mostimportane of whichis that th clstributon i lied type Tin 2 number of respects he independent variable x ofthe parent fon the left by zero. ‘The maximum extreme-rale istibution artes from parent distributions tha for large x have the fore roi af?) 9 The PDF corresponding tothe type I distribution in Table 6.1 is “P= Vm) 7 a Ingpection of Eq. 6.89 reveals tha the type IF) is just a two-param «ter Weibull distribution, Eq, 456, asdicuseed in Chapter 4, wilh mroploced by m. The relation between type Land type It distributions is tnslogoas to that between normal and lognormal distributions Specific, ify fave ‘ype Il distribution, then In y has a typeI distribution. Ths, i we define the reduced variate ve = miniy/0, (6.92) ve again obtain the parameter-frce form Eq, 6.88 asthe CDF for w. The ‘corresponding type TI distribution forthe sales value can alu be founds however, itis applied very infrequently. ‘ype mt ‘ier and for tei diab in Cha Combi Ingen reli ‘seb sale di anal Ca Samal «spat tining194 Lead Copy nd Ril The PDF for this minimum extreme-tale distribution is plotted in Fg 6.116. The table in Appendix C for the largest extreme vanable may alo be used for the smallest value, Because ef the antaymmetry ofthe wea Aliseibations, with w= (ua, sn) we again obain Eq. 6.88 a8 the CDF for w Type ‘The type II distributions differ from the ype I in a number of respects, the most important of which is thatthe independent variable x ofthe erent Aisribuion is fimited on the left by zero" The maximum extemerraoe listibution arises from parent distributions that for lage have the fore roy=1~a(!). 638) The PDF corresponding to the type Ik distribution in ‘Table 6.1 is fo = 2 (2) mor 639) vith 2 mean of y= ATL 1m), mo 6.99) and variance j= Tu 2m) _ 5 oo =e me 91) Ingpection of Eg. 6.89 reveals that the type IL) just a two-param: ter Weibull distribution, Eq, 456, as dacussedin Chapter 4, with eploced by 1 This station i depicted in Fig. 6:12. Thereliabliy at knows capacity i frst obtained by subting the type I maximum distbation from Table 6.1 into. 6.10, e) = Fe) = expe, (6.105) 6x for large Worle (6.106 ‘Thus, fom Eq, 6.1, we have ' fre ~ on(*S4)] a provided thatthe variance in fi) i small enough that Eq, 6.106 i valid. ‘We utilize the normal datibation, with small standard deviation, to represent he distribution of capacities in Eq 6.107. From Eq, 6.30 we obtain The integral on the right-hand side may be evaluaved analytically i a man ner completely analogous to that used for the minimum extteme-ae Alisribution discussed earier, The resulting reliably is rea - ep -3 (3) oo (6.109) where w=] ~ Oy <7 and y i Euler's constant.196° Load, Capi, and Rbiiy Data Collection With extreme-valueditributions as with other distributions, enpitcal data or other means must be avaiable to estimate the distribution paremcters before reliability eaimates can be made. Although a detailed deusnion of the techniques of data collection and analysis may be found in move ad vanced text. vome general remarks are inorder, A simple ilustraton can bbe provided using graphical methods similar to thow in Chapter 5 A collection of extreme-value daa ypcally consists ofa series of peak vals. If the peaks may be approximated to be independent, a number of ‘techniques may be we o estimate the parameters. The cassie example of such an analysts isin prediing the extreme annual flow rates in ever. Fo this purpose we may use simple graphical methods quite analogous to those discussed in Chapter 5 for the analysis of life data. Now, however, the random variable the magnitude ofthe lod for which the system must Be designed rather than ie, asia the ife-testing cas. The CDF forthe loading ' wansformed so thatthe distribution will tepresent a stright line on a specially constructed graph paper. The data are ploted on that paper and 0 ic Ca Sane. + for expec Bei the paramet resulting ta of greater To obtain value CDP fr Taking the “Then taking | As in ¢ 4 tne shes ye = To ils have availa smallest times in Ch Tha fore value of w/t nm Hoo thetine, wed yields w= 65. FAILY A number reliably of loading, Th Jenersr and repented witha kno natal of variably fof decreas shown t ke198 Lond Capac, and Rely ata Collectio With extremesvale distributions, as wth other distribution, empirical data or other means must be svallable to esti parame th echnigues Of dat alecton anny maybe fund in oe eae dee meee rptate fener scncmne the parameters are etimated from the slope and intercept of the line. The resuling straight-line extrapolation then permits the return period for loads of greater mageitude tobe estimated, To obtain the linear representation, we begin with the ype I extreme value CDF from Table 61 FQ) = expe) (6.110) Taking the natural logarithm ofthis expression, we have ln FQ) = ony Then taking the In once again we obtain [-tof-tn 50) = ong) Asin Chapter 5, we have obtained a linear equation of the form 1 = me +, provided that we plot (Inf —InF\(D)] on the ordinate and on the sbecaen. "The value of 0 i determined by noting that {= w when To illustrate the use of extreme-alue graph paper, suppose that we have avilable the flood magnitudes for N years. We rauk these from the smallest the largest, << f=" < ly just a9 we did. with the failure times in Chapter 8: The CDF is timated from the analog of Ea. 53 Net Fal (ens) Thus foreach value oft ploted on the horizontal ai, the corresponding value of n/(N + 1 plotted on the nonlinear vertical axis. Some typical annal Nood data are plotted in this way in Fig. 6.13, Taking the slope of theline, we obtain @ = 1 10f7sec The oad corresponding oF = 0.968 pies = 45 x 10" Wise 65 FAILURE RATES AND REPETITIVE LOADING ‘A number of expressions ate derived in the preceding sections for the reliability of system and the probability that i will fai under a single loading. These quantities are represented, respectively, by the lowercase Jeers and p In this section we examine the reliability of system under repeated loadings of random magnitude, We restit our attention toystems witha known capacity that independent of time, for with these restrictions ‘constant failure rate models are shown wo result. a Section 6.6 the inclusion of variably in capacity i shown tobe related tothe wearin phenomenon of decreasing failure rate, and the deterioration of capacity with time is shown to lead tothe increasing failure rates characteristic of wearout200 Loa, Capi, and Rly -— ‘Suppose that a system is subjected o repeated loadings, 28 indicated {for example, by Figs. 6.142 and 2. The two graphs differ & tha tne nels in the fist occur at fixed intervals, whereas those in the second ec vdom intervals. For the moment, however, we are more interested ine istibucons of magnitudes rather tha inthe spacing intine, We wee thatthe load magnitudes are random and independent. This cach sous @ drawn from distribution () independent of the values of I that have already oorurred. Such independence of loading magnitudes provide proximation for the many diverse cicumstanees whi loads are very weahy correlated the maximum aml flo the maximum impact during landing of an sinc ‘earthquake acceleration, to name only few Fora system with fixed, time-independent capacity , the reliability) for any single loading is independent ofthe reiabiles from the see loadings. The probably of surviving » such loadings (ec, the relishing ) % obtained by mulipying together the probabilities of sursvig the individual loadings: 2 reawonable ap nthe successive od oF wind ust and the maxienum Rue) = He) e114) To convert this expression to Rl), the reliably as function of time, we ‘ast determine how frequently the loadings occur. Two ilealned cas ne onsidered, periodic loading, and loading at random Poison cisutouced time intervals, Periodic Loading For loading at fixed time intervals we proceed by fast taking the natal logarithm of Ea, 6.114; then exponeniating, we obtain Ralo) = expla re) 6.115) This m i 1-16) hand to ob loading ence of Pa Te) to Sp greater (eading za200 Lad, Capcity, and Realy (ddl Suppose that a sytem is subjected to repeated loadings, a indicated, for example, by Figs 6.14a and b. The two graphs differ thatthe oa, in the frst occur at fixed intervals, whereas those in the second occ at random intcrvas, For the moment, however we are more interested iv Une Airibations of magnitudes athe than in thelr pacing eine We ones thatthe load magnitudes are random and independent. Thus cach value rave from a distribution fl) independent ofthe tales off thar have already occurred, ‘Such independence of loading magnitudes provides reasonable ap proximation for the many diverse dreumstancs in which the aacresioe loads are very weakly correlated the maxima annual fond or wind ee fhe maximum impact during landing of an atcrat, and the maxheuse carhquake acceleration, to mane ony few Fora system with fixed, time-independent capacity, the reliability re) for any single loading is independent of the relabiies from the ee loading. The probably of surviving n sich loadings (ce, the reiaby 2) it obtained by muliplying together the prota of surviving the individual Loading: Rio) = ro (1) To convert this expression to Rl) the reliably a «function of time, we aust determine how frequently the loadings occu Two Sdcaltcd ces ane considered, periodic lading, and loading at rardom Pokoon dbertouced Periodic Loading For loading at fixed time intervals we proceed by fst taking the natal logarithm of Eq, 6.114; then exponentiting we citi Rio) = expla 0) 115) Fait Rote ond Rea Loading 201 This may alo be written as Rie) = expla n 0) 116) UF the probability of fire during any one Honing is smal, chen 1 r= pe) hand we may expand the wat arti on the ight tad side of By 6.110 a8 nr) = toll ~ on~ Ho, 6.17 to obtain with good approximation Rilo) = expl mp 18) tf we must Know the To convert the independent variable from tof, we interval at which the loading ake place. With S¢ known, we can sy that atime {there have already been noe 119 "i loadings. ‘Thus, combining Eqs. 6.118 and 6.119, we find the ime depend: ence ofthe reliability, given capacity eto be ue) ~ el = 42 120) or imply Rl = 0 wien where the capacty-dependent failure rate is given by Na = peeve (122) (fora lod that encod the capac defined by The reliability given by Eq 6.120 may chen be writen as alo = -™, 124) Specially, Tis wed to represen the frequency at which a loading pec than cay be expected vec I aa ape 1 ata loadings on a calendar-yar bas such a 100-year flood or 50-year LMizard. In a more abstract sense iti also perfectly valid for operational smite of dime, such as using the thousandth flight landing to estimate the ‘maximum impact lading on an aircraft landing gearLoad, Copa, and Rey EXAMPLE 6 Historia, a design rule for sractaresubjced to flooding bas been to design fara flood with a reir period of twice th desig Mee ths crerion i el hat the probly The probaly of fare during design ies Loading at Randoss Intervals We now consider the other extreme from periodic loading. In random loading the time undl dhe next loading occurs is independent of whem the las loading oceurred. In this situation the Poisson distribution derived i Chapter 4 i applicable. ‘The random evens are now taken tobe peaks i The probably of there being m loadings uring tine is given by the Poison relationship found in Eq. 410 po = OE aw cor “ 6.195) where yi the frequency of the loading. Equation 6.114 isthe conditional probability chat the system will survive, gen n loadings and capacity Thus the reliably, given capacity , is obtained from summing over Rule) = 3 Rope 6129 Combining Ege. 6.125 and 6.126 wth Eq. 6.114, we have auto = 3 ont oa Nong towee, deepen my be expanded costo = 3 Wor, or) rulo =, ro) whee wi 9) = ~The oman rere gen by Ne = wo. (6.130) As for a cimesin Indeed the 6.180 fork the meant ite load shown “This expr Ge, pero is thereto fates Fri relted. The from the Special RKAMPL trop so inmoeral (i Detera fn, and {cep the phon saleyy sal202 Landy, Copa and Raihiy EXAMPLE 66 ¥isorcay «design rule for sractres subjected foding ha ben to design fora Hood witha return period of tice the design eI tha cretion tae at is the probity of filare during the design ie? Salton Let Tbe the desi ie, Then Te) = 27 and The probably of failure during design i is Loading at Random Intervals We now conde the other exeme f y extreme from periodic loading. In random lauding the time unl the nex loading ours is independent of when the Just lating occured. tn thie sian the Poixon duty derived a Ghapiet 4's aplcable. The random events are now taken tobe peaks in the lading shined in i 88, he probity of thee being loadings diving time is gen by the Poison raionthip found in E10} ‘1 oo ho = 6.125) where the frequency of the loading. Equation 6.114 isthe conditional probability thatthe system willurvve, given loadings and capacity Ths the reliably, given capacity, x obttined from summing over re = Savon en nul = $n explren = 3 Moar, ve may rewrite the rly as Rete) = 4 um) where with 6) = 1 ~ pe The constant failure rats gen by Ne) = ie. (6130) Fare ats ond Rope Landing 208 As for periodic loading, we once again have obtained an expresion for a time-independent fallire vate tht is dependent on the system capadiy. Indeed the close relation between Eq, 6.122 for periodic loading and Ea. 6:10 for loading at random Intervals cannot be exeaped. LF we define +25 the mean dime between loads, we have for periodic loading = At. Similarly, ifthe loading is a Poison process, the mean time between loding may be shown to be'r = 1/4. Thus, neither ase, Ma = plea (31) This expression i thus valid for loadings a totally correlated time intervals (ie, periodic) as well a at totally uncorrelated time intervals (Poison. It fr therefore not surprising that empirical data often yield constant failure yates for intermedite cass in which the loading imtervals ae purally cor felted. The widely obwerved increase in faire with decreased capacity is dear from the forms of Eqs. 6.122 and 6.130, In both xe = p19 = [AD ae (6.132) Specifically, ifthe extreme-alue distribution of type Tis used, we have (os en(*), ome as) cess eaten eg peogram carer ined tha nly SO ote ‘topeshoukd clephones te damaged. Asuming thatthe dropping o lephoncs ‘noon wena Poison proces 0) what the MTBD (ean tne Between ops)? 6) emit praise pe ve be pel ibe eit ‘clepones are redeigned so tha ool 4 of drops ease damage, what fain of the pm wl be oad wh op dane at ne ing thet Soltion (a) ‘The fraction of telephones not retrned i = 6% ot > aca che) = osoosyer aaa "(a)204 Laas, Copa, and Realy (© rom Bg. 6.125 we hve iO) = m= 9 6 0794 (00 drop PAO) = y= 1-e = 03m = 0297 (one drop 1 MO) ~ pA) = 1 — 0784 ~ 0827 = 0.090 4 ore han one drop (© Forthe improved design R = «-¥ = «0 ton ofthe phones returned at es nee 66 TIME-DEPENDENT FAILURE RATES In the preceding section we discussed loads tht are applied repeatedly to {sytem and have mutually independent magnitudes Under thee Gregus ‘ances failure rates are constant, provided that wo assumptions coneeraing the sytem capacity are met. Fis, the capacity ofthe stem is sumed be known precisely (ie itis not random); second, tis independen of tong 1f the first assumption does not hold, the capacity ot the sytem Variable. Some such variability isto be expected fom variations fo the ropertis of materials and in dimensional tolerances and from insur ‘ther variables in the manufacturing and construction proceses, Face missing components, assembly errors, or other shortcomings tay eae larger decreases in capacity. In either cae there will be an inital wearin Period of decreasing failure rate, ay indicated in the bathtub curse im Fig Relaxing the second assumption, thatthe capaciy is independent of time; allows us to take into aceoune the wear effects that cute flu rater to increase with tine. Such degradation of capacity, which in the aggregate wwe refer to as wear, ioften divided into thre categories, I caporsy varies conly wit time, i is referred to a8 aging. Corrosion, embritcmesa aed ‘hemical decomposition are examples of phenomena that inay wosedines be independent ofthe magnitude and frequency of the loading to which a system is subjected. Theretore, fora given environment they depend only ‘on time and hence may be casfed as aging. Ifthe eapaciy of 2 sysems decreases withthe numberof times that it has een lad, eye deooage is said to cur. Ifthe capacity decreave depends both on ihe waning oF times that lading takes place and on the lad magnitudes, the phenomena ate referred to a8 comulatve damage, Meal fatigue is probably the moet Widely studied form of cumulative damage Although cumulative damage is often the most realistic model for wear effec, tis cumbersome wo include in simple reliability models, For ths eason as well a the fact that aging often provides a reasonable approwt maton for wea effets, we disciss wearout in what follows, wing aeoging model vein ae = ad ma a ore Lat capac We fur capaci tok 6 the at sve To ote co a Bia ae feet omy,204 Loads, Capi, ant Rey (0) Prom Bq, 6.125 we have BO =m 0734 (no drop, PAO) = 9167 = 03004 = 0827 4 one drop 1 ~ plo) ~ pl) = 1 ~ 0784 ~ 0227 = 0089 4 (ore than one drop. (6 Fortheimproved design R = 4"¥ = ¢-t=maH\ = 09677. Therefore tf tin ofthe plone returned tase once = a877 = 129% 66 TIME-DEPENDENT FAILURE RATES say me dime. iis referred to 35 aging, Conoson, ‘embrittlement, and Tine dependent Pate Rates 208 Weerin The results of Section 6.5 assume thatthe system capacity ¢ has a fixed value. To examine wearin, we now relax this restriction and asume that the capacity isa random variable described by a PDF 0). Ths probability distribution may be viewed in two different way. For mase-prodiced iteme lemay represent dhe variably in capacity within the batch of manufactured items. For single or few ofa kind Fystems, such at lrge sractares or in dustrial plana, the PDF may represent the designer’ uncertainty about the ae-tuilt capacity of the system In ether cae we retain, for now, the ae sumption thatthe capacity doesnot change with ime The reliably RU) jut a conditional probably, given the capaciey «. Therefore, consistent with the rules developed in Chapter 3 for treating two random variables--here¢ and ewe may obtain the expected vale of the reliability R(0) by averaging over = [ feerRete de (34) pose that we employ the wnstant falluse vate de gnc by 6.139 for RG). We have Rw = [1 dev exnf-Nomn de (6.195) Let us consider two cases Inthe frst we ase thatthe variation in capacity is smal, given by a normal PDF with a small standard deviation We further assume thatthe variation ofthe failure rate over the range of ‘apactes is so small that it an be ignored, Then Eq 6135 simply reduces {o Eq, 6.139, The second case is of more interest some Fraction ay a of the systems under consideration are flawed in serious way. There flaws wil cause early or wearin failares To describe the possibility that systems are flawed, we write the PDF of capacities in term of Dirac delta functions a8 fle) = (1 ~ po Be ~ 6) + Bae ~ a (6136) here <1 is the probability that the system is defective. The first term fn the righthand side corresponds to the probability thatthe system will he a property built system with specified design capaciy ¢ By uring the Dirac deta function, we are assuming thatthe capacity variably ofthe properly built systems can be ignored. The second term corresponds tothe Probability thatthe system willbe defective and have a reduced capacity &<é, Such a sination might arise, For example, if 4 erital component Were tobe left out of a rmall fraction ofthe systems in atery or if in construction, members were not propery welded together with some pol ability206 Land, capaci and Rebiy To se the effet on the ve Failure rate, we first substitute Eq, 6.196 into RW 1 = po expC-Me + prexpl—Mead. (6.139) Since the failure rate increase wth decreased capacity, we have Ne ) 149) here ¢ and a ate empirical constants, In fatigue, for example, cis decreasing capacity is due to the increase in crack lengths wih ie. ‘The diapersion inthe capacity « characterized by sis due to the probabiliy istibution for the maximum crack size in the sytem at For a constant load the relay (4) is given by Bq, 617. ‘Thus combining Eq. 6.142 with 6.17, we have nana foatoe- Sf) Changing variables = tel), 6.15) we may write che integral as anormal distribution [te (1) Jn which time appears ony in the lower limit and | is bution. failure in fag ecaty be used eo hav ips, et208 Leads, Copy ond Rebhity Fined Load Magnitude omer the cate of fie ond, Figs cand The oiling ad of known magne in Fig. 6 1m paral. pil of ger ee lad wel eof many fatigue las encurered in prin, Sopene shave et the lad be y Now suppone hat he dsubuton of ana ‘ines hen byw logoorat dee Felice felt], real here the most probable value is given asthe decreasing Function of time eM = 0, a> 6.148) here ¢ and a are empitical constants In fatigue, for example, this decreasing capaciy is due to the increase in crack lenges with time. ‘The dispersion tn the capacity ¢ character by sis due to the probability distribution forthe maximum crack size it the sytem att = 0, For a constant load the reliability (4 is given by Eq, 6.17. Thus combining Eqs 6.142 with 6.17, we have nn RW =H {ee ]}) 4 oun (Changing variables (15) 3 (6.140) in which ime appeats only i the lower limi Timesependn Fare Rats 208 To demonstrate thatthe reliability given by Eq 6.146 ie characerized by the increasing failure rate of wean, we frst obtain the PDF for fure which From 410 is seen tobe given by aR a ou fo = Therefore, from Eqs. 6.146 and 6.147, we obtain 1 de (6.48) Finally, substitution of Eq, 6.143 into this expression yiekls where we have introduced the variables sm ale, (6.150) and (ett (651) Here tis the time to failure forthe deterministic case in which s, = 0 Te is seen that the PDF for time to failure its the lognormal distr bution. In Chapter4we demonstrated that this disribution har at increasing failure rate, provided that si sufiiently smal This inariably the ease in fague testing, making the lognormal distribution one ofthe most fre ‘quently used forthe fing of fare data. Other capaci distributions may ‘be used. For example, it may be shown that anormal distribution fc) leade t© anormal disubuion inthe time to Failure; this also shown in Chapter 4'w have an increasing flr rte The most probable eng of ed ifing arm on » rt i ien by 130N-* tip, where i the number af ad yl Ifthe long eyes he rate of 16 Year?) IF dhe iia trengh ie known with 9% confidence to within 20%, what Frac ofthe iting ars aeely ol during the re month, ven the dng called in pata Sotto (e) Wit = 16 in, dN) = 1300", 4) = 18016810 Lend, Cope and Raitt From 4.6151,» ei Foc one year = 985 x (525.600-% = 264 hips (4) Prom Ba 8.105, For the lognormal ds ton, 1 reea = al i US a8 From Appendix ¢ 1) = 00187. « Therefore, fewer than 2% ofthe arn should iin the fs month Known Capacity We now consider a system whose capacity is known with certainty, but it load is repetitive and of random magnitute, ay sv Fig lie Suppose that we lt e be the capacity 2 the de ofthe mth loading Then the probably ofstvving the mh loading i jus 1), given oy Ey 6.10, Since the magnitudes of the sucesive loa ae indcpetiens of another, we may wtte the probably of surviving the far lone se Ry = Heinle) ~ re) (6.152) Then, aking the exponential of In Ry we obtain Assuring that the probably of faure for any one loading is small Wea) =~ ne) ewe then obi nvco]-$ ne] up Toit a speci wih 30th We then ob Finally, if lead applic of time Therefore, Using the model the f Biogen eas eval Cone rote210 Loads, Capi, andRetay oft} = of m(h)] - e220 From Append heron ee ht ee lite en Known Capacity We now considera system whose capacity is known with certiny, but is oad is epetive and of random magnitude, sn Fig 6 Lie Suppose that we let 6 be the capacity at he tine of the nth loading Then the probability of surviving the mth loading is just re), gen by Ee 8.10. Since the magnitudes ofthe suceasive lade are indspetetons of oot another, we may write the probability of suring the in leas an R= Haire) = He (6.158) Then, taking the exponential of I Ry we obcin t= en «3 nrc] (6.155) Assuming thatthe probability of failure for any one lading is small Plo) = 1 re) Is we then obvain Tinedipndent Fito Rates 1 To ilstrate that the failure rate increases with ime, we mutt asume specific model forthe deterioration in «. Suppose tht the c, decreases ‘wich m so that p,)inereases nearly with the lod application according to pled pil +em), ee 135) Wie then obtain Spe 6.136) Finally if we assume thatthe loadings appear with & mean time between load application of , we may change variblesto write the result in terms of time 57 Therefore, Eas. 6.154 through 6157 yield ney ~ oxo - 8 (1 + $e] (6.158) Using the definition forthe failure rte, Eq 4.18, we see that for this simple model the failure rate increases ny =& (1 139) Bibtlography Ang, A. HS, and WH. Tang, Poi Cnn Engiering Planing ond Dose, 11 Wie, New York, 1985, Augsi, A Barata, and Csi, Pratlitic Mehdi Strata Ein, Gants snd Hal London, England 1084 Freudenal AM. JM. Gatland Minna, “The Anal Sua Sates.” oaral of te Sacra iio ASCE ST 1, 267-895 (1960) Garml BJ Stati toms, Cabin University Pres New York, 1958, Haugen EB, Probabiai Mecanisal Dag, Wily, New Yor, 98D. Haviland, RD, Bagnring Relay ond Long Lie Dein, Van Nontrand, New Kapur, KC. and L.R. Lamberon, Relay in Enginrng Design, Wiley, New ThoftChirtensen, Pd M.J Biker, Sista Rely Then and ts Apiaton Sprager Vera, Bern, 1983Introduction to Reliability Engineering E. E. Lewis nical John Wiley & Sons New York + Chichester * Brisbane + Toro