FT

0.6

Q oferta
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

614,102
3,759,642
716,303

734,409
764,936
757,369
785,219

455,408
531,068
522,542

CIDO ACTICO
% Cambio
Qdemanda
0%
1,266,116
512.22%
1,312,706
16.64%
1,995,780
2.53%
1,413,490
4.16%
1,646,213
-0.99%
1,588,454
3.68%
1,718,768
-42.00%
3,366,793
16.61%
3,823,260
-1.61%
1,674,371

prom=
Qo AA
614,102
3,759,642
716,303
734,409
764,936
757,369
785,219
455,408
531,068
522,542
521,902
521,263
520,625
519,988
519,351
518,715
518,080
517,446
516,812
516,179
515,547
514,916

Qd AA
1,266,116
1,312,706
1,995,780
1,413,490
1,646,213
1,588,454
1,718,768
3,366,793
3,823,260
1,674,371
1,862,152
2,070,993
2,303,255
2,561,566
2,848,847
3,168,345
3,523,676
3,918,858
4,358,358
4,847,150
5,390,759
5,995,334

tico (Ton )

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

-0.12% prom=
Qdef AA
652,014
-2,446,936
1,279,477
679,081
881,277
831,085
933,549
2,911,385
3,292,192
1,151,829
1,340,250
1,549,730
1,782,630
2,041,579
2,329,496
2,649,630
3,005,596
3,401,412
3,841,546
4,330,970
4,875,211
5,480,418

% Cambio
0%
3.68%
52.04%
-29.18%
16.46%
-3.51%
8.20%
95.88%
13.56%
-56.21%

11.22%
Qo OL
41,775,186
21,936,234
24,391,276
26,524,744
23,980,407
22,873,345
10,366,559
4,336,562
929,396
658,507
466,573
330,582
234,228
165,958
117,586
83,314
59,030
41,825
29,634
20,997
14,877
10,541

 cido A ctico (Ton )

PROYECCIN
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2012

2014

2016

201

Tiempo

Q oferta
41,775,186
21,936,234
24,391,276

26,524,744
23,980,407
22,873,345
10,366,559
4,336,562
929,396

prom=

% Cambio

Q demanda

0%
-47.49%
11.19%
8.75%
-9.59%
-4.62%
-54.68%
-58.17%
-78.57%

7,746,409
22,206,607
27,870,362

25,890,741
22,781,847
38,669,802
15,367,841
11,150,493
32,107,799
44,708,462

-29.15% prom=
Qd OL
7,746,409
22,206,607
27,870,362
25,890,741
22,781,847
38,669,802
15,367,841
11,150,493
32,107,799
44,708,462
64,692,961
93,610,450
135,453,938
196,001,294
283,613,070
410,386,951
593,828,238
859,267,029
1,243,355,873
1,799,130,858
2,603,334,985
3,767,015,064

Qimp OL

7,220,878
3,847,342
7,614,101
9,134,857
30,095,785
48,833,929
70,109,117
78,264,976
89,139,233
137,271,683
211,394,179
325,540,547
501,322,451
772,021,187
1,188,888,933
1,830,852,466
2,819,456,602
4,341,876,630
6,686,356,744
10,296,784,160

Qot OL

31,612,154
30,372,086
31,594,508
32,008,202
40,462,344
53,170,491
71,038,513
78,923,483
89,605,806
137,602,265
211,628,406
325,706,505
501,440,037
772,104,501
1,188,947,963
1,830,894,290
2,819,486,237
4,341,897,626
6,686,371,621
10,296,794,701

METANOL
% Cambio
0%
186.67%
25.50%
-7.10%
-12.01%
69.74%
-60.26%
-27.44%
187.95%
39.24%

44.70%
Qoef OL

3,741,792
4,481,345
8,812,661
-6,661,600
25,094,503
42,019,998
38,930,714
34,215,021
24,912,845
43,991,815
76,174,468
129,705,211
217,826,967
361,717,549
595,119,725
971,627,261
1,576,130,363
2,542,766,768
4,083,036,636
6,529,779,637

PROYECCIN cido Actico

Qoferta

2016

2018

Tiempo (ao)

2020

2022

2024

Import

% Cambio
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-46.72%
97.91%
19.97%
229.46%
62.26%
43.57%
11.63%
13.89%

7,220,878.22
3,847,342.42
7,614,101.22
9,134,857.07
30,095,785.32
48,833,928.91
70,109,116.90
78,264,976.21
89,139,233.28
prom=

126,957,446.85
216,175,351.10
363,044,944.88
602,862,582.43
991,866,207.67
1,619,378,768.14
2,626,883,938.48
4,237,944,613.92
6,805,061,059.21
10,882,966,061.03

54.00%

Envolv inferior
1,782,630
2,041,579
2,329,496
2,649,630
3,005,596
3,401,412
3,841,546
4,330,970
4,875,211
5,480,418
Prom
Cap Inst [kg]
Cap Inst [Ton]

% utlizacin
46.88
53.69
61.26
69.68
79.04
89.45
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
80
3,802,648.19
3,802.65

Qoferta

2024

VENTAS DE AA
CANTIDAD (Ton)
637.57
691.22
668.22
769.74
774.94
633.01
761.40
554.48
521.42
523.04

PRECIO
1567505000
1977016000
1750680000
1823524000
2096587000
1750157000
2113295000
1943464000
1847517000
1851728000
PROM

CANT.VENDIDA(Ton)
637.57
691.22
668.22
769.74
774.94
633.01
761.40
554.48
521.42
523.04
517.86
512.73
507.65
502.62
497.64
492.72
487.83
483.00
478.22
473.48
468.79
464.15

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

PRECIO DE VENTA(COP)
1,567,505,000.00
1,977,016,000.00
1,750,680,000.00
1,823,524,000.00
2,096,587,000.00
1,750,157,000.00
2,113,295,000.00
1,943,464,000.00
1,847,517,000.00
1,851,728,000.00
1,898,562,068.26
1,946,580,667.92
1,995,813,758.24
2,046,292,056.24
2,098,047,055.81
2,151,111,047.41
2,205,517,138.17
2,261,299,272.58
2,318,492,253.68
2,377,131,764.70
2,437,254,391.43
2,498,897,644.94

TAS DE AA
%CAMBIO DE CANTIDAD
0.000%
8.415%
-3.327%
15.192%
0.675%
-18.315%
20.282%
-27.176%
-5.962%
0.311%
-0.991%

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

PRECIO [COP/ Ton]

2,458,565
2,860,188
2,619,900
2,369,004
2,705,483
2,764,809
2,775,542
3,505,021
3,543,242
3,540,318
3,666,174
3,796,503
3,931,466
4,071,227
4,215,956
4,365,830
4,521,032
4,681,751
4,848,184
5,020,533
5,199,009
5,383,830

% Cambio
0.00%
0.2612502033
-0.1144836461
0.0416089748
0.1497446702
-0.1652352132
0.2074888139
-0.0803631296
-0.0493690647
0.0022792754
2.53%

CANTIDAD [Kg]
41 823 366
21 673 563
24546067
26 632 614
23 980 407
22 873 345
10,366,559
4,336,562
929,396

Prom

VENTA METANOL
% Cambio
0
-48.18%
13.25%
8.50%
-9.96%
-4.62%
-54.68%
-58.17%
-78.57%

-0.258

CAN. VENDIDA [Ton]

41,823
21,674
24,546
26,633
23,980
22,873
10,367
4,337
929
689
511
379
281
209
155
115
85
63
47
35
26
19

PRECIO VENTA [COP]

$
23,118,172,000
$
14,851,543,000
$
16,269,917,000
$
18,609,388,000
$
21,372,063,000
$
20,164,957,000
$
11,436,676,000
$
1,859,338,000
$
655,688,000
$
514,064,301.63
$
403,030,261.67
$
315,978,742.94
$
247,729,700.44
$
194,221,940.09
$
152,271,455.31
$
119,381,961.14
$
93,596,351.44
$
73,380,240.35
$
57,530,657.89
$
45,104,466.56
$
35,362,239.52
$
27,724,260.56

METANOL
PRECIO
$
$
$

23,118,172,000
14,851,543,000
16,269,917,000

$
$
$
$
$
$

18,609,388,000
21,372,063,000
20,164,957,000
11,436,676,000
1,859,338,000
655,688,000

Prom

% Cambio
0.00%
-35.76%
9.55%
14.38%
14.85%
-5.65%
-43.28%
-83.74%
-64.74%

-21.60%

Precio [COP/Ton]
552757.33
685237.72
662831.93
698744.33
891230.20
881591.96
1103227.79
428758.54
705499.06
745678.94
788147.16
833034.05
880477.36
930622.68
983623.90
1039643.67
1098853.90
1161436.29
1227582.91
1297496.73
1371392.32
1449496.44

Envolv inf [Kg/ao]

ao
2014
1,782,630
2015
2,041,579
2016
2,329,496
2017
2,649,630
2018
3,005,596
2019
3,401,412
2020
3,841,546
2021
4,330,970
2022
4,875,211
2023
5,480,418

Pp [COP/Kg]
3,931.0
4,071.0
4,216.0
4,366.0
4,521.0
4,682.0
4,848.0
5,021.0
5,199.0
5,384.0

Cump =

Ingresos [COP]
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

7,007,520,417
8,311,266,678
9,821,153,685
11,568,286,559
13,588,301,160
15,925,410,721
18,623,817,110
21,745,801,870
25,346,224,299
29,506,569,064

Costo de materia prima con c

Cuse =

Costo de los servicios, con un crecim

OCU =

Otros costos unitarios que involucran prin

Iridio y Rutenio, con proporcin del 0,2%
[44],[45

TOCU=

Es la suma de los costos de materia prima

costo de los catalizadores que se tuvie
unitario

Cmono=

son los costos de la mano de obra direct

crecimiento del 10% que se tom de los
Cman=

Costos de mantenimiento que guandono

una fraccin del (5/1000)

OCFO=

Los otros costos fijos se consideraron

operacionales tomando como gua las heu
por las diapositivas sub

TCFO =

TCV=
TOCO=

Es el total de los costos fijos, y sera la suma de

mantenimiento y los otros cost

Los costos variables son el producto de lo producido

es equivalente al total de costos resulta de la sum

URIA=

Las utilidades Reales antes de impuestos

los gastos sin tener en cuenta el d

DEP=

La depreciasin que es el valor que pierd

segn la legislacin

VLF=

Los valores en libros de la inversin fija e

la inversin

VLW=
VLP=
IPA=
IU=

VP URDI =

VPN=

El valor en libros de la inversin de tra

alrededor de un 3,1% tomado del info

Ahora con los valores en libros tota

el impuesto al patriminonio ya no se ocbr

sac el gob

los impuestos a las utilidades se tiene que en los do

cobrado es del 33%, pero en el 3 aos se cobra de
100%, y siga con el 33% constante

es el valor presente de la URDI tomando una

es un parametro conocido en la

es uno de los indicadores economicos mas usa

no ganacias VPN>0 proyecto VPN=0 indiferen

CUmp [COP/Kg AA]

Cuse [COP/Kg AA]

880
931
984
1,040
1,099
1,161
1,228
1,297
1,371
1,449

OCU

101.87
105.64
109.55
113.60
117.80
122.16
126.68
131.37
136.23
141.27

109.15
110.02
110.90
111.79
112.68
113.59
114.49
115.41
116.33
117.26

% Crecimiento anual

sto de materia prima con crecimiento de -21,6 %

s servicios, con un crecimiento del 3,7% anual [41], [42]

3.70%

itarios que involucran principalmente al costo del catalizador

, con proporcin del 0,2% y 0,4% en masa del alimento [43],
[44],[45]

1%

os costos de materia prima unitaria y los servicios adems del

catalizadores que se tuvieron en cuenta como otros costos
unitarios

de la mano de obra directa e indirecta, se tiene en cuenta el

l 10% que se tom de los porcentajes aproximados en clase

10%

enimiento que guandonos de lo visto en clase se tom como

una fraccin del (5/1000) de la inversin fija
10%

stos fijos se consideraron como el 15% de los costos fijos

omando como gua las heursticas dadas en clase, soportadas
por las diapositivas subidas en el moodle

s costos fijos, y sera la suma de los costos de mano de obra, costos de

mantenimiento y los otros costos fijos operacionales.
son el producto de lo producido en la envolvente inferior y los costos totales

total de costos resulta de la suma de los costos fijos y los costos variables

Reales antes de impuestos se es la resta entre los ingresos y

os sin tener en cuenta el descuento de los impuestos
que es el valor que pierde los bienes por su uso es del 34%
segn la legislacin colombiana

ibros de la inversin fija es el descuento de la depreciasin a

la inversin fija

ibros de la inversin de trabajo crece similar a la inflacin

e un 3,1% tomado del informe de coyuntura regional [41]

3.1%

n los valores en libros totales es la suma del VLF y VLW

atriminonio ya no se ocbra a partir del 2013, por decreto que

sac el gobierno

utilidades se tiene que en los dos primeros aos no se cobran , el impuesto

%, pero en el 3 aos se cobra de 25%, en el 4 el 50%, hasta que se llegue al
%, y siga con el 33% constante [Clase anlisis de procesos]

nte de la URDI tomando unatasa atractiva minima de 12% , la cual

un parametro conocido en la evaluacion de proyectos

cadores economicos mas usados y dice si un inversionista obtiene o

>0 proyecto VPN=0 indiferenteatractivo [Clase anlisis de procesos]

12%

TOCU
1,091.50
1,146.28
1,204.07
1,265.04
1,329.34
1,397.19
1,468.76
1,544.28
1,623.96
1,708.03

Cmanten
128,688,221
141,557,043
155,712,747
171,284,022
188,412,424
207,253,667
227,979,034
250,776,937
275,854,631
303,440,094

Cmo
300,822,166.80
330,904,383.48
363,994,821.83
400,394,304.01
440,433,734.41
484,477,107.85
532,924,818.64
586,217,300.50
644,839,030.55
709,322,933.61

OCFO
75,795,950.80
83,375,545.88
91,713,100.46
100,884,410.51
110,972,851.56
122,070,136.72
134,277,150.39
147,704,865.43
162,475,351.97
178,722,887.17

Inversin fsica
Salvamento

Depreciasion T

TCFO
505306338.647059
555836972.511765
611420669.762941
672562736.739235
739819010.413159
813800911.454475
895181002.599922
984699102.859914
1083169013.14591
1191485914.4605

16,729,468,736.50
5,688,019,370.41

11,041,449,366.09

TCV
1,945,735,947.05
2,340,230,531.35
2,804,887,090.19
3,351,875,508.62
3,995,468,143.25
4,752,403,510.09
5,642,313,029.22
6,688,221,783.03
7,917,136,152.45
9,360,733,434.95

TOCO
2,451,042,285.70
2,896,067,503.86
3,416,307,759.95
4,024,438,245.36
4,735,287,153.66
5,566,204,421.55
6,537,494,031.82
7,672,920,885.89
9,000,305,165.59
10,552,219,349.41

URAI
4,556,478,131
5,415,199,174
6,404,845,925
7,543,848,314
8,853,014,006
10,359,206,299
12,086,323,078
14,072,880,985
16,345,919,134
18,954,349,714

DEP
3,345,893,747
3,345,893,747
3,345,893,747
1,003,768,124
0
0
0
0
0
0

Crecimiento Anual
Inversin total
Inversin fija

Inversin trabajo

25,737,644,210.00
21,876,997,578.50

3,860,646,631.50

3.1%

Dep acum

Verificacin

3,345,893,747
6,691,787,495
10,037,681,242
11,041,449,366
11,041,449,366
11,041,449,366
11,041,449,366
11,041,449,366
11,041,449,366
11,041,449,366

vlf

13,383,574,989.20
10,037,681,241.90
6,691,787,494.60
5,688,019,370.41
5,688,019,370.41
5,688,019,370.41
5,688,019,370.41
5,688,019,370.41
5,688,019,370.41
5,688,019,370.41

18,531,103,831.20
15,185,210,083.90
11,839,316,336.60
10,835,548,212.41
10,835,548,212.41
10,835,548,212.41
10,835,548,212.41
10,835,548,212.41
10,835,548,212.41
10,835,548,212.41

TAM

12%

TIR

25%

Precio Equilibrio

3,275.45

vlw
3,860,646,631.50
3,980,326,677.08
4,103,716,804.07
4,230,932,024.99
4,362,090,917.77
4,497,315,736.22
4,636,732,524.04
4,780,471,232.29
4,928,665,840.49
5,081,454,481.54

VLPA
22,391,750,462.70
19,165,536,760.98
15,943,033,140.67
15,066,480,237.40
15,197,639,130.18
15,332,863,948.63
15,472,280,736.45
15,616,019,444.70
15,764,214,052.90
15,917,002,693.95

IPA

ULAI
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1,210,584,384
2,069,305,427
3,058,952,178
6,540,080,190
8,853,014,006
10,359,206,299
12,086,323,078
14,072,880,985
16,345,919,134
18,954,349,714

IU
1,210,584,384
2,069,305,427
252,363,555
1,079,113,231
2,191,120,966
3,418,538,079
3,988,486,616
4,644,050,725
5,394,153,314
6,254,935,406

URDI
3,345,893,747
3,345,893,747
6,152,482,370
6,464,735,083
6,661,893,040
6,940,668,221
8,097,836,462
9,428,830,260
10,951,765,820
12,699,414,309

Vsto
19,992,634,341.70
19,165,536,760.98
15,943,033,140.67
15,066,480,237.40
15,197,639,130.18
15,332,863,948.63
15,472,280,736.45
15,616,019,444.70
15,764,214,052.90
15,917,002,693.95

Vp URDI
2,987,405,131.52
2,667,326,010.28
4,379,215,426.15
4,108,456,017.12
3,780,137,020.56
3,516,358,522.30
3,663,049,969.71
3,808,146,401.33
3,949,316,545.77
4,088,871,527.74

S Vp URDI
2,987,405,131.52
5,654,731,141.80
10,033,946,567.95
14,142,402,585.07
17,922,539,605.62
21,438,898,127.92
25,101,948,097.63
28,910,094,498.96
32,859,411,044.74
36,948,282,572.48

Vp Vsto
17,850,566,376.51
15,278,648,565.83
11,347,936,079.76
9,575,020,568.80
8,623,548,585.98
7,768,106,053.15
6,998,874,050.61
6,307,048,341.51
5,684,733,623.43
5,124,848,874.19

VPN
-

4,899,672,701.97
4,804,264,502.37
4,355,761,562.29
2,020,221,056.13
808,443,981.61
3,469,359,971.08
6,363,177,938.24
9,479,498,630.47
12,806,500,458.17
16,335,487,236.67

cantidad
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

ventas
41 823 366
21 673 563
24546067
26 632 614
23 980 407
22 873 345
10,366,559
4,336,562
929,396

23 118 172
14 851 543
16269917
18 609 388
21 372 063
20 164 957
11,436,676
1,859,338
655,688

Q oferta
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

614 102
3 759 642
716 303

734 409
764 936
757 369
785,219

455408
531068
522542
prom=

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

Qo AA
614,102.00
3,759,642.00
716,303.00
734,409.00
764,936.00
757,369.00
785,219.00
455,408.00
531,068.00
522,542.00
483,026.43
444,053.02
405,079.62
366,106.21
327,132.81
288,159.40
249,186.00
210,212.60
171,239.19
132,265.79
93,292.38
54,318.98

CIDO ACTICO
%cambio
Qdemanda
0%
1 266 116
512.22%
1 312 706
16.64%
1 995 780
2.53%
1 413 490
4.16%
1 646 213
-0.99%
1 588 454
3.68%
1,718,768
-42.00%
3366793
16.61%
3823260
-1.61%
1674371
-0.12% prom=

Qd AA
1,266,116.00
1,312,706.00
1,995,780.00
1,413,490.00
1,646,213.00
1,588,454.00
1,718,768.00
3,366,793.00
3,823,260.00
1,674,371.00
1,986,743.69
2,058,805.78
2,133,415.05
2,147,178.44
2,220,546.59
2,277,979.41
2,346,931.31
2,409,747.06
2,314,043.38
2,163,123.16
2,211,997.92
2,234,523.14

Qdef AA
652,014.00
262,541.20
1,279,477.00
679,081.00
881,277.00
831,085.00
933,549.00
2,911,385.00
3,292,192.00
1,151,829.00
1,503,717.26
1,614,752.75
1,728,335.43
1,781,072.22
1,893,413.78
1,989,820.01
2,097,745.31
2,199,534.46
2,142,804.19
2,030,857.37
2,118,705.54
2,180,204.17

METANOL
%cambio

Q oferta

0%
3.68%
52.04%
-29.18%
16.46%
-3.51%
8.20%
95.88%
13.56%
-56.21%

41 775 186
21 936 234
24 391 276

26 524 744
23 980 407
22 873 345
10366559
4336562
929396

11.22% prom=

Qo OL
41,775,186.00
21,936,234.00
24,391,276.00
26,524,744.00
23,980,407.00
22,873,345.00
10,366,559.00
4,336,562.00
929,396.00
977,616.42
3,406,948.19
9,415,151.43
15,231,583.65
20,164,001.58
24,586,347.58
27,633,748.93
31,902,094.44
36,743,289.15
41,757,316.43
46,443,108.07
50,555,461.27
54,745,020.22

Qd OL
7,746,409.00
22,206,607.00
27,870,362.00
25,890,741.00
22,781,847.00
38,669,802.00
15,367,841.00
11,150,493.00
32,107,799.00
44,708,462.00
34,939,594.00
36,774,059.04
38,608,524.07
40,442,989.11
42,277,454.15
44,111,919.18
45,946,384.22
47,780,849.25
49,615,314.29
51,449,779.33
53,284,244.36
55,118,709.40

%cambio

Q demanda

0%
-47.49%
11.19%
8.75%
-9.59%
-4.62%
-54.68%
-58.17%
-78.57%

7 746 409
22 206 607
27 870 362

25 890 741
22 781 847
38 669 802
15367841
11150493
32107799
44708462

-29.15% prom=

Qoef OL
1,549,281.80
4,441,321.40
5,574,072.40
5,178,148.20
4,556,369.40
7,733,960.40
3,073,568.20
2,230,098.60
6,421,559.80
8,941,692.40
6,987,918.80
7,354,811.81
7,721,704.81
8,088,597.82
8,455,490.83
8,822,383.84
9,189,276.84
9,556,169.85
9,923,062.86
10,289,955.87
10,656,848.87
11,023,741.88

12,869,508.02
13,480,996.37
14,092,484.72
14,703,973.06
15,315,461.41
15,926,949.75
16,538,438.10
17,149,926.44
17,761,414.79
18,372,903.13

%cambio

FT

0%
186.67%
25.50%
-7.10%
-12.01%
69.74%
-60.26%
-27.44%
187.95%
39.24%
44.70%

Envolv inferior
1,728,335.43
1,781,072.22
1,893,413.78
1,989,820.01
2,097,745.31
2,199,534.46
2,142,804.19
2,030,857.37
2,118,705.54
2,180,204.17

prom

% utlizacin
35.18
36.25
38.54
40.50
42.70
44.77
43.62
41.34
43.13
44.38

41

0.6

cap inst

4,912,734.20