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potential.
* Estimating Current Demand
Total market potential
is the maximum sales available to allfirms in an industry during a given period,
under a given level ofindustry marketing effort
andenvironmental conditions.A common way to estimate total market potential is t
o multiply thepotential number ofbuyers by
the average quantity each purchases,times the price.
Area Market Potential:
Because companies must allocate their marketing budgetoptimally among their best
territories,they need to estimate the market potential
of different cities,states,and nations.Two major methods are the market-buildup
method,used primarily by business marketers,and the
multiple-factor index method,used primarily by consumer marketers.
Industry Sale And Market Share:
Besides estimating total potential and area potential,a company needs to know th
e actual industry sales taking place in its market.
This means identifying competitors and estimating their sales.
Another way to estimate sales is to buy reports from a marketing research firm t
hat audits totalsales and brand sales.
* Estimating Furture Demand :
SURVEY OF BUYERS INTENTIONS
Forecasting is the art ofanticipating what buyers arelikely to do under a given
set ofconditions.Surveys also inquire into consumers present
and future personal finances and expectations about the economy
COMPOSITE OF SALES FORCE OPINIONS
When buyer interviewing is impractical,thec ompany may ask its sales representat
ives to estimate their future sales.
EXPERT OPINION
Companies can also obtain forecasts from experts,including dealers,distributors,
suppliers,marketing consultants,and trade associations.
Dealer estimates are subject to the same strengths and weaknesses as sales force
estimates.Many companies buy economic and industry
forecasts from well-known economic-forecasting firms that have more data availab
le and more forecasting expertise.
Occasionally,companies will invite a group of experts to prepare a forecast.The
experts exchange views and produce an estimate as a
group (group-discussion method ) or individually,in which case another analyst m
ight combine them into a single estimate
(pooling ofindividual esti-mates).Further rounds ofe stimating and refining fol
low (the Delphi method).
PAST-SALES ANALYSIS
Firms can develop sales forecasts on the basis of past sales.time-series analysi
s breaks past time series into four components
(trend,cycle,seasonal,and erratic) and projects them into the future.Exponential
smoothing projects the next period s sales by combining an
average of past sales and the most recent sales,giving more weight to the latter
. Statistical demand analysis measures the impact of a set
ofc ausal factors (such as income,marketing expenditures,andprice) on the sales
level.Finally, econometric analysis builds sets of equations
that describe a systemand statistically derives the different parameters that ma