February 05, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice

Newsletter

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Brazil Paddy Rice Index Declines Slightly

from Last Week
Feb 04, 2015

The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by the CEPEA reached around 38.24 real per 50
kilograms as of February 03, 2015, down about 0.34% from around 38.37 real per 50 kilograms
recorded on January 27, 2015.In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $282.7 per ton
on February 03, 2015, down about 5% from around $297.4 per ton recorded on January 27,
2015.

FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines 1%

m/m to 222 Points in January 2015
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Feb 04, 2015

The FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 222 points in January 2015, down about 1%
from around 224 points in December 2014 due to decline in the Higher and Lower Quality Indica
as well as Japonica sub-indices.The Japonica sub-index registered the highest decline of about
1.4% or 4 points to around 279 points this month from around 283 points last month. Higher
Quality Indica sub-index declined by about 1 point, or about 0.5% to around 194 points in
January 2015, from around 195 points last month. Lower Quality Indica sub-index declined by
about 2 points, or about 1% to around 189 points this month from around 191 points last
month.However, the Aromatic sub-index increased about 1% to around 189 points in January
2015 from around 187 points last month.
In January 2014 - January 2015, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 222 points, down about
2% from around 227 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher quality Indica
rice prices declined about 8.6% y/y and sub-index for lower quality Indica rice prices declined

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about 4.5% y/y. Aromatic rice price sub-index declined about 28% y/y. However, sub-index for
Japonica rice prices increased about 18.4% y/y.
According to the FAO, rice export prices in the Asian origins such as Vietnam, India and
Pakistan declined significantly in January 2015 due to increased supplies from new harvest and
subdued export demand. However, Thai rice export prices remained relatively stable or increased
during the month, says the FAO. Export prices of U.S. origin as well as other American origns
also declined due to increasing supplies from new harvests.
During January 2015, average rice export prices of Thai 100% broken rice increased to around
$429 per ton; Prices of Thai 5% broken rice, Thai parboiled rice, Thai 25% broken rice and Thai
fragrant rice also increased to around $420 per ton, $424 per ton, $400 per ton and $1,078 per
ton respectively. However, prices of Thai A1 Super declined slightly to around $330 per ton.
Export prices of Vietnam and India 25% broken rice declined about 1.6% m/m and 0.2% m/m to
around $349 per ton each respectively. Rice export prices in of Pakistan 25% broken rice
declined by about 1.5 m/m to around $326 per ton; and export prices of the U.S. and Uruguay
rice declined about 2% and 0.8% to around $508 per ton and around $595 per ton respectively.

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Slip Lower as Market Unable to
Find Follow-through Buying as Grains and
Crude Turn Negative
Feb 04, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 8.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per
ton) lower at $10.300 per cwt (about $227 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are all seen lower as well: soybeans are currently seen about 1.2% lower, wheat is
listed about 0.8% lower and corn is currently noted about 1.2% lower.U.S. stocks opened lower
on Wednesday as oil reversed its recent rally and markets digested mixed overseas news from
China and Greece.
China's central bank increased its economic stimulus measures even further Wednesday by
cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) amid growing concerns about the rate of expansion
in the world's second-largest economy. The 50 basis points reduction to 19.5 percent, effective
Thursday, is the first such cut since May 2012. This will lower the amount of deposits that each
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lender is required to hold as reserves. The Greek debt situation remained unclear as finance
minister Yanis Varoufakis met with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The ADP
Employment report, which is seen as a precursor to Friday's important jobs report, showed
January payrolls increased by 213,000, below estimates of 225,000.
Total mortgage application volume increased 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis last week from
one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Data out later in the morning
include the PMI Services Index at 9:45 a.m. and the ISM Non-manufacturing Index at 10:00
a.m., which will also give indications on the state of health of the U.S. economy. Oil inventories
data is published at 10:30 a.m. and the Cleveland Federal Reserve's President Loretta Mester
speaks at 12:45p.m. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 63 points, or 0.34%, at
17,603.21. The S&P 500 opened down 7.43 points, or 0.36%, at 2,042.76, with health care the
greatest laggard and consumer staples leading gains across three sectors. The Nasdaq opened
down 23.2 points, or 0.48%, at 4,704.31. Gold is currently trading about 0.5% higher, crude oil is
seen trading about 4.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% lower at
8:30am Chicago time.

IRRI's Regional Seed Cooperation

Agreement Speeds Up Release of Rice
Varieties in South Asia
Feb 04, 2015

The regional rice seed cooperation

agreement between India, Bangladesh and
Nepal, launched by the Philippines-based
International Institute of Rice Research
(IRRI) is speeding up the release of rice
varieties in these countries, according to a
news release on its website.The regional
rice
seed
cooperation
agreement,
promoted through the Stress-Tolerant
Rice for Africa and South Asia
(STRASA), began with an intention to
benefit farmers in region by reducing time lags in releasing newer rice varieties. Since the agroclimatic conditions of the three countries are similar, rice seeds developed, tested, approved and
released in one country can be released simultaneously in the other countries as well.
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This process facilitates quicker release of rice varieties as rice seed development usually takes
longer time, according to the news release. For instance varieties developed through marketassisted breeding takes two years while varieties developed through conventional breeding takes
about seven years. The agreement saves a lot of time and resources in releasing a new variety in
a country.As part of this agreement several varieties such as BR11, BRRI dhan 28, and BRRI
dhan 29, modern high-yielding rice varieties developed and released in Bangladesh are widely
grown in India. Bangladesh's other varieites such as BINA dhan 8, BINA dhan 10, BINA dhan
11, and BINA dhan 12 are becoming popular in East Indian states. Similarly, India's rice
varieties such as Swarna, Sarju 52, and Samba Mahsuri are released in Nepal and Bangladesh.
Nepals Sukha dhan5 and Sukha dhan6, and drought-tolerant varieties are being considered for
release in the Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.The progress of the regional rice seed
cooperation agreement were presented at the IRRI-Global Rice Science Partnership (GRiSP)
Asia Science Week, held from 26 to 30 January in the Philippines.

Indian State Maharashtra Approves Field

Trials of GM Rice
Feb 04, 2015

India's western state Maharashtra has

approved field trials of five genetically
modified (GM) crops, including rice,
maize, chickpea, brinjal and cotton,
according to local sources.The state
government has issued "no objection
certificate (NOC)" for companies
carrying out field trials of these five
GM crops. Along with BT rice, the
government has also approved field
trials of two other rice varieties that are
drought tolerant and has nitrogen use
efficiency.
Companies carrying out field trials of GM crops are mandated to get a NOC from respective
state governments, according to a Central Government Directive. Other states such as Punjab,
Haryana, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh have reportedly given NOCs for field trials of some biotech
crops, but states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are against the field trials of GM crops.

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Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Close at Fresh Low as Crude
Gives back Yesterday's Gains as Inventories
Continue to Rise
Feb 04, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 13.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at
$10.250 per cwt (about $226 per ton). Rough rice futures continued on their downward
trajectory, closing at a fresh contract low after failing at an early attempt to add to gains earned
yesterday. The market remains firmly entrenched in a bearish trend with traders expecting
another testing of the psychologically significant $10.000 per cwt (about $220 per ton) level,
again dragging prices to levels not seen since mid-2010. Todays action confirms the current
bearish outlook and forecasts lower prices in coming sessions.
A break down and close below the previously mentioned level of support would likely trigger
additional selling on the part of specs and could initiate another leg to the downside. The
question now becomes at what point the market represents an attractive value to commercial
interests and when do they step in to take on or add to a long position to fill basic demand. The
other grains gave back a portion of yesterdays gains today; Soybeans closed about 1.5% lower
at $9.7200 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.5% lower at $5.1100 per bushel, and corn finished
the day about 0.6% lower at $3.8350 per bushel.
U.S. stocks pared gains to trade narrowly mixed on Wednesday as low oil prices continued to
weigh on the energy sector, putting pressure on the S&P 500. Crude oil futures touched a low for
the day of below $50 a barrel, down more than 6% and near Monday's settlement level. Oil
prices have fallen around 50% from a high of $114 a barrel last June on the back of an oversupply and lack of demand. This week's rebound sparked hopes that prices had hit a bottom after
a seven-month rout, but growth concerns in China have prompted renewed concern for global oil
demand. The Greek debt situation remained unclear as finance minister Yanis Varoufakis met
with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The Dow Jones Industrial Average came
off highs to trade 37 points higher, or 0.21%, at 17,702.
The S&P 500 traded down 5 points, or 0.24%, at 2,045, with consumer discretionary leading 4 of
the 10 sectors, and energy the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq rose 0.44 points, or 0.01%, to 4,728.
Gold is trading about 0.3% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 7.7% lower, and the U.S.
dollar is seen trading about 0.5% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were 811
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contracts traded, down from 2,282 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest the number of
contracts outstanding on Tuesday decreased by 10 contracts to 10,291.

Nepal Imports 97,098 Tons of Rice from

India in First Six Months of FY 2014-15; Up
42% from Last Year
Feb 04, 2015

Nepal has imported about 97,098 tons

of rice from India through the Belhiya
(Bhairahawa) transit point in the first
six months of the current fiscal year
2014-15 (August 2014 - July 2015), up
about 42% from around 68,397 tons
imported during the same period in FY
2013-14 according to the Customs
officials.Nepal's rice imports from
India have been increasing over the
last few years due to Nepalese
preference for fine rice over medium and coarse rice, according to an official from the Ministry
of Agricultural Development.
According to Nepal Rastra Bank's (NRB) statistics, Nepal imported rice worth Rs.12.37 billion
(around $121.45 million) in 2013-14, up about 46% from around Rs.8.47 billion (around $83.16
million) despite surplus rice stocks of around 800,000 tons from the previous fiscal due to rising
disposable incomes and the Nepalese preference for better quality rice.According to MoAD, rice
imports are expected to increase this year also due to an expected decline in production. Nepal's
2014 paddy rice production is likely to decline about 5.1% to around 4.78 million tons from
around 5 million tons last year due to a late monsoon and untimely rainfall, according to MoAD
sources. The decline is primarily attributed to below average rainfall during the transplantation
time.
USDA estimates Nepal to import around 350,000 tons of rice in 2015. It estimates Nepals MY
2014-15 (October 2014 September 2015) paddy rice production to decline to about 4.655

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million tons (around 3.1 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 5 million tons (around 3.36
million tons, basis milled) in MY 2013-14.

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

Feb 04, 2015

Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $395 $405 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $355 - $365 per
ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $360
- $370, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $310 - $320 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at
around $390 - $400 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at
around $400 - $410 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100%
broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan
broken sortexed rice quoted at around $280 - $290 per ton.

China Decides to Retain 2015 Minimum Rice

Purchase Prices at 2014 Level
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Feb 04, 2015

The Chinese government has decided to continue the

state stockpiling policy for rice in 2015 as well but will
retain the minimum rice purchase prices (MRPP) at last
year's level, Reuters quoted the National Development
and Reform Commission as saying.The MRPP for early
indica rice reserve purchases will continue at 135 yuan
per 50 kilograms (around $432 per ton), MRPP for
middle and late-season indica rice as well as for japonica
rice will be retained at 138 yuan per 50 kilograms
(around $442 per ton) and 155 yuan per 50 kilograms (around $496 per ton). respectively.
The Chinese government has been purchasing rice from farmers under the policy since 2004.
The government will intervene and buys rice from farmers at the state-set MRPP if the market
price falls below MRPP.Experts view that the government has not increased MRPP from last
year's levels despite increase in production costs as it is keen on taking the MRPP close to
market prices. All these years China had been purchasing rice from farmers at above market
prices and thus has accumulated huge stocks. Now, if the government wants to release those
stocks into the market, it may have to compromise with prices.Since the government has been
planning to eventually scrap the state stockpiling policy, the decision not to increase MRPP this
year seems to indicate a step in that direction, say experts.

Research Group Urges Government of

Ghana to Develop Support Strategy for Small
Scale Rice Farmers
Feb 04, 2015

A report released by the Ghana Trade and Livelihood Coalition (GTLC), a trade and agriculture
advocacy, research and practice organisation, has found that small scale rice farmers need
government support in land acquisition, training in using latest agricultural farming equipment as
well as financial support from banks. A study conducted by the GTLC covering about 660 rice
farmers in about 10 small-scale rice areas in nine administrative regions found that farmers are
seeking government support in the above mentioned areas in order to increase yield per hectare.

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A Senior Lecturer from the Department of Economics of the University of Ghana commented on
the results of the study saying that the government needs to recognize the financial needs of the
small-scale farmers and should consider facilitating financing through banks. He noted that due
to inadequate support from the government, farmers are forced to take loans from microfinance
institutions at high interest rates consequently impacting their incomes.
The study also found that farmers are willing to accept new methods of cultivation and it is high
time for the government to react. The government should ensure that policies are properly
implemented to get desired results.GTLC has been collecting data on agriculture to assess the
implementation of the agriculture sector policies and their impact on small scale farmers in
Ghana since 2009 and the report was released in 2014.
Earlier, the Ghana Rice Inter-Professional Body (GRIB) also urged the government to adopt new
strategies, including providing access to quality seeds, fertilizers, irrigation facilities, modern
rice farming technologies, milling units as well as drying and storage units, to boost rice
production in the country.Ghana produces only 30% of its annual consumption needs of around
one million tons and imports the rest. The government is currently planning to increase rice
production by about 20% per annum over the next four years to make the country self-sufficient
in rice and subsequently ban rice imports.According to the USDA, Ghanas rice production is
estimated at about 330,000 tons (milled basis) in MY 2014-15 (October - September). The U.S.
agency expects Ghana to import 620,000 tons of rice during the year to meet consumption needs
of around one million tons of rice.

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