Kick off Here

Wouldnt it be nice to have profitable bets of football matches, (sorry Im not going to
call it soccer!) without having to actually predict the result. No more last minute
goals or penalty decisions to ruin your bets.
Well thankfully, we now have another option.
With this method we dont even have to predict who is going to win, or who is not
going to win.
This is all thanks to In play betting. Ill say right now that you are going to need to
use Betfair for this system, there is no alternative, since even if another exchange
did have the in running betting option they are unlikely to have the liquidity in the
market. You're also going to need to be at your computer during these live games.
I am talking about European games, which are played on some weeknights and
always on Saturdays and Sundays. Premiership (English), La Liga (Spanish), and
Serie A (Italian). I mostly concentrate on the Premiership but you dont have to limit
yourself to just these games.
In Play games.
Firstly, find out what matches are available by checking the In play today section
on the Betfair homepage. Then youll need to click on each match and go to the
match odds for that match. We are looking for matches whereby the home team is
strongly fancied but the draw price is under 3.75 to lay.
Example:

By laying the draw we are effectively backing either team to win the match. i.e. If we
leave the bet and do nothing after the game has started we will win the backers
stake as long as the game does not end in a draw.
It is important to realise that your liability (the total amount you could lose) will be
considerably higher than the stake you accept when you lay at 3.55, for example:
100 lay at 3.55 = 255 liability. This is why sticking to matches with a lay price
under 3.75 makes sense. But, it is also important to remember that this system
never puts you in danger of losing that total liability.
Before placing your lay bet you should always check there is enough money in the
match. Click on the rules tab on Betfair and that will tell you the total amount
matched. This should be at least 100,000. This ensures that there will be enough
money in the market to execute the next play.
When the match is about to start you should be online with the match odds on your
screen waiting to go in-play. Youll need to either follow the match on live TV
(which is the most fun) or follow the score via www.livescore.com.
What we want to happen now is for the home team to score a goal.
When a goal is scored, or other events happen in a match such as a red card or
penalty, the market gets suspended. Soon after the market will go live again and
you will start to see odds appear. If the home team score, which is the most likely
scenario as they are quite firm favourites, the odds for them to win will get quite a

bit shorter. The odds for the away team will now be a lot higher and the price for the
draw will also be higher. This is where the system makes its money . By backing the
draw with 70% of the original stake at this point, it is possible to secure a profit on all
possible outcomes (Home win, Away win ,Draw) and get an all green position.
The game on the previous page doesnt start for a couple of days but lets just say
that Middlesborough take the lead in the 35th minute.
The odds for the draw should now move out to about 6.0. If you now place 70
(70%) on at 6.0 this will leave a 30 profit if either team goes on to win. And a big
profit of 95 if the match ends in a draw.
Ill show you the math:
Match is a draw:Win 350 on our back the draw bet (70 x 6.0-70)
Lose 255 on original lay (100 x 3.55-100) = 95 profit.
Match is not a Draw (either team wins)
Win 100 on our original lay.
Lose 70 on our back bet, leaving 30 profit.
Tip.
Within the Betfair settings (just above the odds on offer) select Show a separate
future position. This will enable you to adjust your stake to a little less or a little
more than the 70% before you submit your back bet to give you an even green
amount on all three outcomes.
Example of the system in action
In the below match I was quite confident and laid the draw at slightly higher than the
3.75 advised. This is both a good and a bad example! The advantage of this is that
the odds are likely to have more of a knee jerk reaction if the goals go your way, the
downside is the potential losses are higher.

Youll see that I initially laid the draw for 85 at 4.2. In this match Michael Owen
scored for England on 44 minutes and the draw price flew right out. Youll see that I
immediately put a little less than 70%, 55 on the draw at 7.0,resulting in the above
all green position. It is very important that you place this back bet as soon as you
possibly can after a goal has been scored. In this case I was quick enough to get
this position before Poland equalised around 1 minute later. So you can see you do
need to act in seconds not minutes when possible.
So, things can go wrong?
Yes, things can and do go wrong but there are simple tactics to use.

What happens if?

1)The odds dont move out, or only move a little after the home team scores.
You are looking to close your position and get into an all green situation. But the key
is with this system is not to be greedy. Give it a maximum of five minutes after your
team have scored and if the draw price has not moved out by at least 1.5 then close
your position. You will need to back with 70-90% depending on the odds to get an
all green position, use the show future position setting to get it right.
2)The away team score first.
Sometimes you will be able to make a profit when this happens however do not
hang around waiting for the draw price to play ball. Back the draw immediately with
100% original stake or slightly less if the draw price has moved out slightly. But
close your position straight away if this happens.
3)No one scores!
This is the worst scenario that could happen. The advice you must follow is be
prepared to accept a loss on these games. Give it up to the 60th minute and if a
goal has not been scored get out by backing the draw with 100% of your stakes.
You should get around 2.15 at this stage. This would equate to a potential loss of
about 140 if Id laid 100 at 3.55.(which is a lot better than 255) Now that doesnt
sound good but here me out. There are still 30 minutes left of the game for someone
to go on and win it. If that happens we break even having won 100 lay bet and lost
100 back bet.
A draw is the least likely result in football it happens less than home or away wins.
Plus we are only looking at games where the home team is strongly fancied and
expected to win.
4)The away team equalise before youve backed the draw.
Uh oh! Dont Panic! The match is still unlikely to end in a draw and another goal
could be scored soon. Effectively you are in the same position as if no goal has
been scored. Therefore get out as soon as another goal is scored by either team or
at the 60th minute.
The 1-1 situation will not happen often but do not let it - by waiting or being greedy.
Golden Rules
-If a goal has been scored, close your position as soon as possible with 70% or less
stake where you can.
-Stick to games with solid home favourites (2.25 or less), draw prices less than 3.75
and with over 100k traded just before the kick off.
-Keep a record of all your results.
You can expect to make a profit on around 70% of games using this method, and
you will have some break even matches and some that result in a loss.

Further improvements
Since the worst scenario we could have with this system is a low scoring game, it
makes sense to focus on games likely to have lots of goals.
Therefore if you wanted to improve on the system you could find some stats that
back up your team scoring goals and preferably in the first half or early second half!
Ive found the following websites useful:
www.sportinglife.com
www.soccerstats.com
www.soccerbase.com
www.sportpress.com (click statistics button)
I would suggest looking at the number of goals the home team normally scores
before the 60th minute and how many the away team normally concedes, in relation
to all of their goals. i.e. a team that normally raps their games up early is good for us
where as a team that has done most of their winning in the second half may not be.
The recent form is best, so look at the last six games.
I hope you have a fun and success.
Paul Ruffy

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