Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Overview
Objectives
Motivation
Formations Analyzed
Methodology
Horizontal Shale Basin Results
Vertical to Horizontal Well Comparison
Sandstone and Shale Horizontal Well Comparison
Economic Analysis
Conclusions
Objectives
Examine production trends in horizontal shale gas wells
Motivation
Disagreement within the industry in shale plays over
Long term viability
Decline trends
Time to abandonment rate
EUR
Resultant economics
Excello/Mulky
Gammon
Bakken
New Albany
Antrim
Green
River
Cane
Creek
Marcellus
& Huron
Monterey
McClure
Lewis &
Mancos
Floyd &
Conasagua
Thirteen
Finger
Barnett &
Woodford
Barnett
Eagleford
Woodford
Caney &
Woodford
Bossier &
Haynesville
Fayetteville
excluded
Wells were grouped by date of first production
Data sets with less than eight wells were ignored
Wells falling an order of magnitude or more outside of the
trend were scrutinized further
Data normalization
Number of
Producing
Wells
Gas
Production
Rate (MSCF/D)
Sudden drop in
well count
representing
wells that started
production in
latter stages of
2007
Total Wells
#
731
467
305
275
59
Forecast Method
Decline curve analysis (DCA)
Determine Arps b exponent from regression of
historical production data for each group
Forecast analysis
Formulate a production type curve for each shale
gas basin from DCA
Barnett Shale
Maximum Time Decline Trend
Barnett Shale
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
12
24
36
48
TimeN (months)
60
72
84
2000
1500
1000
500
0
12
24
36
48
60
increased
One study found that proppant amount
correlated well to production results
72
84
Fayetteville Shale
Maximum Time Decline Trend
Fayetteville Shale
3000
DOFP_2005 (8 Wells)
DOFP_2006 (53 Wells)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
12
24
36
TimeN (months)
48
60
2500
2000
DOFP_2005 (8 Wells)
DOFP_2006 (53 Wells)
DOFP_2007 (118 Wells)
DOFP_2008 (173 Wells)
DOFP_2009 (115 Wells)
1500
have
36
48
60
Woodford Shale
Maximum Time Decline Trend
Woodford Shale
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
12
24
TimeN (months)
36
48
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
from
1,800 to 4,800 ft
1000
500
Frac stages per lateral
0
went from 3 to 10
0
12
24
Fluid volume has increased, but not proportionately
Proppant amount per lateral has remained constant
over time
Increase in production may be sustained, more
production is needed
Decline profile similar to the Fayetteville
36
48
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
12
24
TimeN (months)
36
8000
7000
6000
4000
5000
3000
rapidly evolved
2000
Lateral length increased 1000
from
0
2,200 to 4,800 ft
0
12
24
Frac stages per lateral increased from 6 to 14
Stimulation volumes have increased proportionately to
the number of stages
Fluid volume per stage ~12,000 bbl
Proppant amount per stage ~300,000 lbs
36
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
TimeN (months)
10
11
12
IP is second highest
4000
3500
are 12 to 14
500
0
Frac designs are
0
1
2
3
comparable to the Haynesville Shale
10
11 12
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
10
TimeN (months)
12
14
16
Barnett Horizontal
Barnett Horizontal (Forecast)
Barnett Vertical
Barnett Vertical (Forecast)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
60
120
180
Time, Months
240
300
360
Barnett Horizontal
Barnett Horizontal (Forecast)
Barnett Vertical
Barnett Vertical (Forecast)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
60
120
180
Time, Months
240
300
360
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
12
24
36
Time, Months
48
60
Barnett
Fayetteville
Fayetteville (Forecast)
Woodford
Woodford (Forecast)
Haynesville
Haynesville (Forecast)
Eagle Ford
Eagle Ford (Forecast)
Cotton Valley Horizontal
Cotton Valley (Forecast)
Cleveland Horizontal
Cleveland (Forecast)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
12
24
36
Time, Months
48
60
5000
Barnett Horizontal
Barnett (Forecast)
Fayetteville
Fayetteville (Forecast)
Woodford
Woodford (Forecast)
Haynesville
Haynesville (Forecast)
Eagle Ford
Eagle Ford (Forecast)
Cotton Valley Horizontal
Cotton Valley (Forecast)
Cleveland Horizontal
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
12
24
36
Time, Months
48
60
Reservoir Type
Well Type
Shale Gas
Horizontal
Tight Gas
Sandstone
Vertical
Shale Gas
b
1.5933
0.6377
0.8436
1.1852
1.6940
0.7259
1.0000
1.2778
2.3483
1.0000
1.9366
Current Cumulative
Gas Production
MMScf
1,415
883
996
1,740
548
1,341
478
2,703
476
469
389
Economic Inputs
Play
Barnett
Fayetteville
Woodford
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
22
17
19
25
25
0.7
1.1
1.2
2.5
1.5
EUR, Bcf
2.895
2.867
2.463
3.401
2.544
3.389
4.579
6.092
3.793
2.036
Barnett_DOFP_2008
Barnett_DOFP_2009
Fayetteville_DOFP_2008
Fayetteville_DOFP_2009
Woodford_DOFP_2008
Woodford_DOFP_2009
Haynesville_DOFP_2008
Haynesville_DOFP_2009
Eagle Ford_DOFP_2009
2.895
2.867
2.463
3.401
2.544
3.389
4.579
6.092
3.793
$3.70
$3.74
$3.65
$3.20
$7.35
$6.22
$6.95
$6.10
$6.24
Conclusions
Haynesville IP > Eagle Ford IP > Woodford IP >
Fayetteville IP > Barnett IP
Conclusions
Barnett Shale had a flatter production decline trend
Barnett would not serve as an analog shale play for
estimating production declines in other shale gas plays
Could be due to natural fractures, curvature, and stress
Vertical and horizontal wells exhibit similar decline profiles
during first 2 years of production