Nigeria Beyond 2015 Pastor Tunde Bakare

By SNG on January 28, 2015 in Nation Building, Speeches

BEING TEXT OF SPEECH BY PASTOR TUNDE BAKARE

AT THE OBAFEMI AWOLOWO UNIVERSITY (OAU)
COURTESY OF THE ANGOLA HALL EXECUTIVES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OAU
STUDENTS UNION
ON WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2015
VENUE: ODUDUWA HALL, OAU.
THEME: NIGERIA BEYOND 2015
PROTOCOLS
Introduction

I stand here in celebration of an institution whose commitment to the Nigerian ideal is etched
indelibly on the pages of history. The pride of place occupied by this university in the educational
landscape of our nation and continent is one reserved for a select few; a league of universities that
have earned the right to the epithet Great!
The import of Great Ife, as this ivory tower is fondly called, lies not in the serenity of its physical
environment nor in the sophistication of its laboratories and Information Technology centres; it
resides not just in its towering academic records nor in its consistency among the top ranked
universities in Nigeria; it consists not merely in the fact of its location in a city that also plays host to
Yoruba historical and cultural heritage, nor is it defined just by its belonging to the class of tertiary
institutions dubbed first generation universities conceived and birthed by the founding fathers of our
nation in her glory days. Rather, the import of Great Ife lies in the revolutionary spirit that birthed it
and has characterized its interaction with the social, political and economic landscapes of our nation
since its inception.
The revolutionary gene was infused into the DNA of this university when it was established through a
stroke of political activism by the Action Group under the leadership of Chief Obafemi Awolowo in
defiance of the report of the Ashby Commission which had recommended that the University College
Ibadan, a federal university, was sufficient for the Western Region.[1] Rejecting the Ashby
recommendation, the leadership of the region, in its characteristic proactivity and prioritization of
education as a tool for development, conceived and established this university from funds generated
within the region.
I am therefore pleased to be among you as we consider this very weighty matter that pertains to the
future of our nation as encapsulated in our theme, Nigeria Beyond 2015. At a time when power
brokers are locking horns in partisan politicking, when vested interests across party lines are facing
off ahead of the planned February elections, and when politicians are preoccupied with
electioneering, sloganeering, and manifesto engineering, I consider it statesmanly and a
demonstration of a sense of responsibility for the occupants of Angola Hall and the Students Union
Government of this great university to have looked beyond the euphoria of the election season to the
weightier matters of nation building.
Having said that, I must let you know that I come before you today with the solemn realization that
Nigeria is on the verge of what will go down in history as a most crucial moment in her journey to
nationhood. I speak to you with a weight of responsibility knowing that I am addressing a generation
whose future is at stake in this pivotal moment in our nations history; a generation that is caught up
in the complex paradoxes of our nation; a generation that is outwardly confident in itself yet lost in
the frantic search for individual and national identity, seemingly optimistic yet disillusioned by the

failed promises of its country; despised in the social, political and economic equation of its nation, yet
in possession of the latent power to determine the destiny of that nation. I speak to you of the future
that is possible for our nation Nigeria a future that you have the power to create.
What is it about 2015?
At the turn of the millennium, the year 2015 was marked by the international community as a
landmark year. In September 2000, world leaders met at the United Nations headquarters in New
York to make projections for the community of nations. The 189 world leaders at the summit agreed
on 8 development goals, better known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), with a
deadline for accomplishment set for 2015.
That same year, in Dakar, Senegal, the international community set a 2015 target for attaining its
goal of meeting the educational needs of children, youths and adults the Education for All goal it
had set ten years prior but failed to meet.
It is necessary to point out that most of these goals were set with Africa in mind given the relatively
disadvantaged state of the continent at the turn of the millennium. While we wonder why 2015 was
chosen by the international community for the attainment of its broad range of developmental
objectives, I would like to take you to other pertinent projections that make 2015 crucial for our nation
and indeed our continent.
In December 2000, under the direction of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the United States
of America, and with the support of a range of non-governmental institutions and experts, the Global
Trends 2015 report was published with a view to highlighting the major drivers and trends that would
shape the world in 2015. While noting that those drivers would include demographics, natural
resources and environment, science and technology, the global economy and globalization, national
and international governance, future conflict and the role of the United States, the report had the
following to say of Nigeria:
Criminal organizations and networks based in North America, Western Europe, China, Colombia,
Israel, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, and Russia will expand the scale and scope of their activities. They
will form loose alliances with one another, with smaller criminal entrepreneurs, and with insurgent
movements for specific operations. They will corrupt leaders of unstable, economically fragile or
failing states, insinuate themselves into troubled banks and businesses, and cooperate with
insurgent political movements to control substantial geographic areas. Their income will come from
narcotics trafficking; alien smuggling; trafficking in women and children; smuggling toxic materials,
hazardous wastes, illicit arms, military technologies, and other contraband, financial fraud and
racketeering.[2]

The report also identified the possibility of Nigeria, among other states of major concern to US
strategic interests, failing to manage serious internal religious and ethnic divisions leading to crisis
over the next 15 years 2015 being the expiration of that 15-year projection.
Earlier on in November 1997, at a time when Nigerias leadership role in the West African sub-region
was strongly felt through the instrumentality of the Economic Community of West African States
Monitoring Group (ECOMOG), the NIC predicted the following in a publication titled Global Trends
2010:
Nigeria and Kenya will not have the potential to play the role of leaders in their respective regions.
Nigerias economic mismanagement, corruption, and political instability will not be resolved over the
next 15 years.[3]
In December 2004, the National Intelligence Council, again, based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world, released a publication titled Mapping the Global
Future:Report of the National Intelligence Councils 2020 Project.[4] While projecting economic
ascendancy and influence for China, India and other Asian countries, the report said little about SubSaharan Africa and seemed to relegate the future of Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African
countries to negative phenomena including HIV/AIDS, organized crime, and brain drain by the year
2010.
Subsequently, in January 2005, the NIC convened a group of top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa
to determine how the 2020 projections would reflect in Sub-Saharan African countries by 2015. This
led to a March 2005 report titled Mapping Sub-Saharan Africas Future, a futuristic view on the subcontinent that not only showed little optimism on the prospects of Sub-Saharan Africa enjoying the
projected global economic gains but also painted a gloomy and chaotic picture for the continent. In
what was referred to as downside scenarios, the following possibility was projected for Nigeria by
2015:
Other potential developments might accelerate decline in Africa and reduce even our limited
optimism. The most important would be the outright collapse of Nigeria. While currently Nigerias
leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that
could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup
that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a
sustained manner. If

Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the

West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of
destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding

countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could
not be reconstituted for many yearsif everand not without massive international assistance.[5]
This downside scenario is what is often quoted as the projection by the United States that Nigeria
would break up by 2015. Even though the United States government has sought to distance itself
from this report, it is noteworthy that the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the body behind this
projection, supports and reports to the Director of National Intelligence who is officially the principal
adviser to the President of the United States, the National Security Council, and the Homeland
Security Council on intelligence matters. A disclaimer[6] to this report by then United States
Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Terence McCauley, therefore seems like a typical case of plausible
deniability, a strategy officially adopted by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) since the 1960s in
the days of Harry Truman in which security documents involving controversial actions are managed
in such a way that if they become exposed to the public, the president is adequately shielded.
In the year 2005, while I was unaware that such sessions had been convened by the American
intelligence community, I was taken in a vision to the war room at the White House where I saw
President George Bush plotting against Nigeria. I confronted him and asked him to leave Nigeria
alone but he simply told me to help myself to some breakfast.
Young leaders of this nation, I am bringing this information to you to let you understand the global
environment within which your country exists and to let you realize that, long before this time, the
year 2015 had been identified by the international community as a crucial year for Nigeria and, by
implication, the rest of Africa. I am doing this to challenge you to become responsible for your nation
and continent. You will observe from these reports that governments and institutions of other nations
are taking the time to strategize about your nation and, by implication, your future. I want you to
become righteously indignant, not towards those nations, but towards your government for failing to
take responsibility for the fate of your nation. I want you to begin to ask what the Department of State
Services (DSS) and the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) are doing in terms of mapping the
future of our nation and its strategic interests. I also want to let you know that the world does not
expect much from you, your country or your continent even though it reluctantly admits that you have
great potential and indeed fears what you could become if your country were to get the fundamentals
right. I am here to challenge you to rise up and take your destiny in your hands. I am here to inspire
you to reject the stereotypic limitations that the world identifies you with and to summon your full
potential towards making your country and your continent the best they can and must be. I do this
because I am persuaded that there is hope for our nation and continent despite the gloomy picture
painted by the world and regardless of the fact that they have been written off by a cynical, skeptical
and pessimistic international intelligentsia. In spite of the mess brought upon the nation by an

unpatriotic and self-seeking political class, I am confident that there is a future for our country and
continent because a people who once sat in darkness shall see a great light (Isaiah 9:2,
paraphrased).
At this point, it is necessary to point out the intrinsic factors that make the year 2015 crucial for
Nigeria and that might have informed some of these projections by the international intelligence
community.
Factors That Make 2015 a Crucial Year for Nigeria
First, 2015 marks Nigerias first post-centenary year since the amalgamation of the Northern and
Southern Protectorates in 1914, which became the precursor to the formation of the Nigerian state.
There have been allegations that that colonial action was intended to be a 100-year experiment
purportedly designed within the framework of a secret document called the Tinubu Square Edict or
the Accord of 1914. Although the propagators of this so-called agreement do not specify the parties
involved, it is claimed that it was signed by Lord Lugard. While the logical reaction would be to
dismiss such insinuations on the legal ground that British colonies were created by an Order-inCouncil and not by treaties, it is instructive that former Head of State, General Ibrahim Badamasi
Babangida (IBB), at the January 31, 2013 launch of 2 books in honour of Professor Bolaji Akinyemi
who had served as Minister for Foreign Affairs during IBBs tenure as military president, stated that
even Lord Lugard gave Nigeria a lifespan of 100 years.[7] Coming from a former Head of State who
had access to relevant intelligence, such statements should not be taken lightly. It buttresses the fact
that the colonial administration regarded the act of amalgamation not as an integration of peoples but
as an administrative arrangement for the economic interests of the British Empire. It also suggests
that the colonialists, at the point of the amalgamation, had no definite plan to transition the colonies
from dependent territories to independent states but had hoped that within 100 years, the resources
of these territories would have been exhaustively exploited under a colonial arrangement for the
benefit of the British Crown, after which the colonial peoples would be left alone to decide their fate
under a new international order that would keep them in perpetual subjugation. However, subsequent
events, particularly the Second World War, would destabilize the existing international order and
weaken the colonial empires, including Britain. The Second World War also facilitated the coming of
the United States of America into the community of nations and its ascendance to global power
status as well as the rise of the Soviet Union and the threat of communism. With Britain relinquishing
its world power status to the United States and the world subsequently becoming bipolar, pressure
from the new world powers in addition to agitations within the colonies forced Britain and the other
European colonialists to gradually concede independence to the colonies.

Nevertheless, in the post-colonial international order, Africa has been merely nominally politically
independent and has remained largely economically dependent on the West which scholars have
termed neo-colonialism. The international legal order, from the structure, composition and power
dynamics of the United Nations, to the various international trade regimes, has been largely
disadvantageous to Africa. The multinational corporations, with the connivance of the corrupt and
self-serving political administrations of Africa, have simply continued the pre-independence order
that was characterized by the exploitation of African territories with the collusion of local chiefs.
Therefore, whereas Nigerians are treating the 2015 projections with levity, it appears that the
international community is already acting in anticipation of the downward scenario which is, indeed,
a nightmare scenario. As one analyst put it, it appears the international community is working to the
2015 answer.[8] If these projections are considered against the backdrop of the Lugardian timetable
for the exhaustive exploitation of the Nigerian territory and the subsequent expiration of the so-called
amalgamation experiment, it would appear that the Western powers have not jettisoned that
timetable. To buttress this point, observers have pointed out the following developments:
1.

Since 2011, insurgency in northern Nigeria has escalated to international proportions from
what started as a small religious sect. The escalation of the sects activities to the level of
insurgency just a few years before 2015, in such a proportion never before experienced in Nigerias
history of religious conflicts, is worth pondering upon. There have been reports alleging that the
escalation is part of an international plot to balkanize Nigeria. One of such is an article by Gordon
Duff, reportedly a national security specialist and an editor for Veterans Today,[9] a US magazine.
Duffs article[10] has been referenced in other Nigerian dailies including Daily Trust[11]
and Vanguard.[12] In his allegations, which were made a couple of years before the crisis reached
its current alarming state, Gordon Duff described Boko Haram as the construct of outside powers
who plan to balkanize Nigeria. Although the veracity of Duffs claims may be challenged[13],
reports from other sources such as News Rescue have linked the activities of the sect to foreign
powers operating through Middle Eastern proxies in such a way that even the perpetrators do not
realize who is driving the wheel.[14] Some analysts[15] are of the opinion that this was the
characteristic manner in which Al-Qaeda was created in Afghanistan, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and
Hamas in Palestine. It is also interesting to note that fifteen years after theGlobal Trends
2015 report, the Boko Haram insurgency has been linked with the narcotics trade and trafficking in
women and children among other criminal activities projected in the report.

2.

A couple of years before 2015, major Western multinationals, especially in the oil and gas
sector, began to divest from Nigeria as though in anticipation of an unconducive environment for
business. It is noteworthy that a top ranking official of a multinational oil company[16] with a major
stake in the Nigerian petroleum industry was named among the experts that produced the report

titled Mapping the Global Future[17], the subsequent review of which led to the projection of the
2015 failed state scenario for Nigeria.
3.

Between 2006 and 2008, after the NIC projections, the United States established its United
States Africa Command (AFRICOM) with the aim of protecting US interests across Africa. When
Nigeria opposed the creation of AFRICOM and asked instead for US assistance in the creation of a
Nigerian-owned and controlled military base in the various sub-regions of the continent, it was
projected by intellectuals that relations between Nigeria and the US would turn sour and that, in its
characteristic manner, the US would begin subtly interfering with Nigerias internal affairs in a bid to
ultimately force Nigeria to comply.[18]

4.

A 5-day war game was simulated in Pennsylvania, USA in May 2008 as reported by the
African Security Research Project.[19] Tests were conducted to determine how AFRICOM could
respond to a possible crisis in Nigeria projected at 2013, in which the Nigerian government is near
collapse, and rival factions and rebels are fighting for control of the oil fields of the Niger Delta and
vying for power in the oil-rich country, which was at that time the sixth largest supplier of Americas
oil imports. The report further indicates that at the end of the war game, the participants drew up a
set of recommendations for then Army Chief of Staff, General George Casey, to present to
President Bush, and that General Casey decided to brief the presidential candidates at the time,
John McCain and Barack Obama, on the results of the exercise. It is instructive that one of the
major catalysts fuelling political rivalries ahead of the 2015 elections is the existence of 92 oil wells
in the Niger Delta, the allocation of which will be determined by whoever wins the elections.

5.

In April 2014, following the abduction of the Chibok girls and the ensuing international outcry,
the Boko Haram crisis eventually opened the door for AFRICOMs entry into Nigeria.

6.

In 2014, America completely cut off oil imports from Nigeria. Although it was presented as a
policy aimed at stopping US-dependence on foreign oil and promoting clean energy, a December
2014 report by The Guardian[20] suggests that Americas imports from other traditional oil suppliers,
including OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, actually increased when the US halted
imports from Nigeria. This suggests that the policy on Nigeria could have been a targeted measure.

7.

The Nigeria-US relationship has remained sour in the lingering war against Boko Haram with
Nigeria calling off the training arrangement it had with US soldiers. Furthermore, the US has refused
to sell weapons to Nigeria citing human rights abuses by the Nigerian forces.[21] It is however
noteworthy that the US has a history of support for undemocratic partners as was the case with
Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan whom America supported with $300 million worth of military aid
despite his implication in allegations of human rights abuse.[22]

These developments would make the observer wonder if the world is getting set for the downside
scenario for Nigeria in 2015.
The second intrinsic factor that makes 2015 crucial for Nigeria is the February 2015 elections which
seem to further provide the incubator for the hatching of the dreaded scenario. Speaking on the
theme The Gathering Storm and Avoidable Shipwreck: How to Avoid Catastrophic Euroclydon in a
state of the nation broadcast[23] at the Latter Rain Assembly on Sunday the 4th of January this year,
I alerted the nation on seven signs that point to the looming storms ahead of the forthcoming
elections. The signs include:
1.

Poor Level of Election Preparedness

2.

Safety and Security Risks

3.

Likely Minority King-Making

4.

Looming Constitutional and Legal Crisis

5.

Impending Post-Election Tension

6.

Looming Economic Collapse

7.

Potential Religious Confusion, Betrayals, Scandals and Persecution

In reaction to the speech, the government and the electoral body have attempted to clarify certain
issues raised and have taken certain measures aimed at boosting election preparations. However,
the signs still loom and the nation has thus far turned a deaf ear to my proposals for a horse-beforethe-cart approach. Instead, we are plunging headstrong into the storms, carrying out a volatile
transition process without laying the necessary foundation for the sustenance of our democracy. In
what is turning out to be the democratic paradox, it appears that we are acting out the script for the
downside scenario and setting ourselves up for the fulfillment of the 2015 failed state projections. Do
I hear you say God forbid? Hmmm! Hmmm!!
This address is, however, not about the elections. As far as those are concerned, I have sufficiently
warned the nation let him who has an earhear what has been said. Instead, this speech is about
the great nation that will rise out of the rubble of the old one that is going down; it is about the part of
the unfolding Nigerian story which international pundits are not privy to even though they realize the
existence of a part of the Nigerian puzzle that beats linear projections and confounds prognosis. This
address is about that wild card in the equation, the ace in the puzzle. It is about the God-ordained

destiny of our nation and what we must do to get there. At this juncture, it is necessary to find out
what it is about Nigeria that has warranted such attention from international pundits in the first place.
The Nigerian Potential
In its report titled Mapping Sub-Saharan Africas Future,[24] the NCI publication I earlier referred to, it
was noted thatthe ability of African countries to continue to muddle along despite high levels of
violence should not be underestimated. It was further observed that Nigeria had succeeded in
maintaining its democratic faade despite the fact that 20,000 people had been killed in the country,
according to the report. This capacity to defy expectations was admitted in the report when it noted
that if Angola, Nigeria, and Sudanthree of Africas largest and most important countriesactually
began to use their revenues from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger, tens of
millions of Africans would benefit from reduced poverty, and the impact on the region might be
significant. The Global Trends 2015[25] report had earlier projected that South Africa and Nigeria,
the continents largest economies, will remain the dominant powers in the region through 2015 and
that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the SADC [Southern African
Development Community] will be the primary economic and political instruments through which the
continental powers, Nigeria and South Africa, exert their leadership. In April 2014, Moodys, an
international rating agency, projected that Nigeria will have one of the 15 largest economies in the
world by 2050[26]. A similar projection had been made by Jim ONeill, former Chairman of Goldman
Sachs, as reported in theBusiness Day newspaper of March 21, 2014.[27] ONeill had said that
whereas the BRICS nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa would be the next
phenomenon after the G7 economies, the MINT nations Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey
would emerge after them. Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC), in its projections published in
2013[28], saw Nigeria as the 13th largest economy in the world by 2050. It regarded Vietnam and
Nigeria as potential fast-growing wild cards outside of the G20. In its growth projections, it had this
to say about Nigeria:
Nigeria could be the fastest growing country in our sample due to its youthful and growing working
population, but this does rely on using its oil wealth to develop a broader based economy with better
infrastructure and institutions (e.g. as regards rule of law and political governance) and hence
support long term productivity growth the potential is there, but it remains to be realised in
practice.
Furthermore, using the National Power Index, the Atlantic Council and International Futures have
predicted that Nigeria will be the 19th most powerful country in the world by 2020, the 18th by 2030,
16th by 2040 and 14th by 2050.[29] Also noteworthy is an October 2013 study by the French
Institute of Demographic Studies which predicted that by 2050, Nigeria will overtake the United

States as the third most populous country in the world with a population of 444 million, behind China
and India.[30]
Although we do not have to base our confidence as a nation on these international projections, it is
worth pointing out that even among international pundits, our potential for greatness has been widely
acknowledged.
Some Factors behind the Nigerian Potential
Population/Demographics: Not only is Nigeria the most populous country in Africa, it has a very
youthful population. Whereas only 16% of the population in Europe and 25% of the Asian population
are below 15 years, 41% of Africas population is below 15 years.[31] The population of Nigerians
below 15 was 44% in 2010[32] while over 60% of Nigerians are below 35 years.[33] This implies that
Nigeria has a large potential workforce compared to some of the worlds developed countries. I must
add that this potential workforce includes you, students of this great university.
Natural Resources: Apart from her oil reserves and natural gas reserves, Nigeria is endowed with
34 solid minerals[34] and each state of the federation is endowed with one or more minerals with
significant trade and industrial potential.
Investment Attraction: In 2014, a United States-based economic advisory firm, Frontiers Strategy
Group, identified Nigeria as the preferred investment destination among other African countries
despite the security situation.[35] This phenomenon, which is not unconnected to the nations vast
endowments, implies a great potential for capital inflow.
The Nigerian Spirit: Although there is currently no index to lend empirical credence to what may be
referred to as the Nigerian spirit, this inexplicable factor makes the Nigerian unique and contributes
to the Nigerian potential. It is seen in the enthusiasm, drive and optimism of the Nigerian. It can be
observed on the streets of Lagos in the sonorous voice of the conductor calling out to potential
passengers, in the aggressiveness and tact of street traders and street beggars as they sell their
products and predicaments to commuters, in the doggedness of the worker racing and rushing to
catch a bus early in the morning. It is resident in every Nigerian, even in a villager who visits the city
for the first time and is initially taken aback by the rush but eventually adjusts and becomes
streetwise in no time. It is a latent entrepreneurial spirit waiting to be harnessed.
The Nigerian Paradox
Despite these endowments, our nation has paradoxically performed sub-optimally. This sub-optimal
state of the nation is reflected in the experience of the disillusioned average Nigerian youth whose
story we shall begin to tell from his struggles through secondary school. We shall call him Johnny.

The substandard state of his learning environment is seen in the broken chairs, tables and leaky roof
with which his classroom is furnished. Ventilation has been taken care of by the fact that the windows
are always open. In fact, there are no windows, just spaces on the walls where windows ought to be
fixed; spaces that have been further widened by cracks on the walls. Indeed, the classroom has no
need of windows as it is occupied by three arms, each supplying no fewer than 60 students. So,
altogether, there are about 180 of them in one classroom. Johnny and his classmates dare not
complain. After all, their lot is better than that of students in a neighbouring school where students sit
on mats and where some classes are held under a mango tree. His maths teacher, overburdened
with a merciless workload for which he was last paid six months ago, has become the meanest man
on earth, the very definition of frustration. Like his other classmates, even when Johnny does not
understand his maths lessons, he dares not ask questions for fear of the teachers hostile response.
A hungry man, they say, is an angry man. With parents who can barely feed the family, Johnny
manages to get through secondary school, hawking after school to support his struggling parents.
He eventually writes the WASSCE and passes all his subjects except mathematics. By hook or
crook, he obtains a credit in maths from NECO and turns his attention to the UTME. He attends
tutorial centres in preparation for the matriculation exam. He intends to study medicine. While
preparing for the UTME, he takes on menial jobs to support himself and his parents. Unfortunately,
he is unable to prepare sufficiently for the exams and scores below the cut-off point. He tries again
the next year and still does not meet the cut-off point. He writes it a third time and decides to settle
for Zoology. He is admitted to one of Nigerias universities (name withheld). He attends lectures in a
dilapidated lecture hall that was last renovated when his grandfather was a young janitor in the
university, he dissects toads in a poorly equipped laboratory that has become a biological museum,
and he sleeps in an overcrowded hostel with twelve occupants in a room that was once for two. To
worsen matters, in his final year, two of his results cannot be found. Fearing a carry-over and delayed
graduation, he joins a fellowship and takes it to the Lord in prayer. His prayers are answered and his
results are found. He graduates after seven years on a four-year course. Mind you, he spent three
additional years not because he failed but because ASUU was on strike for a cumulative period of a
year and a half, while the school was closed over student unrest for another cumulative period of a
year and a half.
Upon graduation, he is posted to a remote village for an experience that assures him of one fact:
Now Your Suffering Continues (NYSC). He gladly accepts it for two reasons first, he was not
posted to the North where he cannot be certain of returning to his poor parents alive; second, his
NYSC allowance will sustain him for the period of service. He can also send a few naira notes back
home to his parents. Alas, the one year service comes to an end and he has to look for a job. For
two years, he drops his CV at the reception of every available firm and writes aptitude tests in every
sector that has an opening, from banking and finance to telecoms, from media to oil and gas, from

civil service to non-profit, and from the police force to the immigration service whose aptitude tests
are conducted in football stadiums. When these dont work out, he tries out a career in comedy but
quits when MC jobs are not forthcoming as no one wants to hire a Johnny Just Come (JJC). At that
point he gives up, resigns himself to fate, makes watching football his past time, becomes an expert
at football analysis, and even tries out gambling in the name of sports betting. His psychological
distance from his country is seen in the fact that he knows all the players in Chelsea, Arsenal and
Manchester United, when they were bought, how much they are paid, how long their contracts will
last and how many goals they have scored but knows nothing about a single player in Enyimba or
any Nigerian club for that matter.
Then one day, unexpectedly, one of the banks that interviewed him a year earlier suddenly needs
cashiers and gives him a call. He excitedly takes the job. One year into the job, however, while he is
trying to consider career development prospects and has started thinking of proposing to his
girlfriend, financial crisis hits the banking sector and his bank downsizes. Guess who is among the
first to be laid off! Johnny!
We may laugh at Johnnys experience but it is not funny. It is not funny to that young graduate on the
streets of Lagos, Ife, Ibadan, Benin, Port Harcourt or Kano, with a knotted tie under the heat of the
sun, file in hand and sweat in brow, knocking on gates from one firm to another in search of an
opening; it is not funny to that family whose child sits at home jobless years after graduating despite
the time, energy and resources spent on educating him or her; it is not funny to a nation when only
29% of its school leavers gain admission into the available tertiary institutions[36], which implies that
71% are shut out of the system each year; it is not funny to a nation when 50% or about 64 million of
its youth population is unemployed.[37]
In the Global Talent Index an index of how countries attract, develop and retain talent as well as
how this translates to competitiveness Nigeria has remained at the bottom of the table in spite of
her rapid population growth[38]. Conversely, South Africa, the other African country studied in the
survey, is higher up on the table as a result of that countrys relatively high spending on education as
a proportion of GDP. This trend is also seen in the Global Innovation Index which rates countries in
terms of their success at creating enabling environments for innovation and innovation outputs. In
this ranking, Nigeria is 110th out of 143 countries studied[39]. In the Human Development Index,
which is a composite statistic of life expectancy, education and income indices, Nigeria occupies the
152nd position out of 187 countries.[40] This should not come as a surprise as Nigerias scorecard in
the education index is 145th out of 181 countries[41]. It is obvious that Nigeria has paid little
attention to the most vital resource in any nation the human resource. This accounts for the
paradoxical sub-optimal state of the nation in spite of her material resource endowment.

The Underlying Causes of the Paradox

It was John F. Kennedy who said, Our progress as a nation can be no swifter than our progress in
education. The human mind is our fundamental resource. Every nation that must convert its material
resource endowment to real wealth must prioritize human resource development. It was in
consonance with this principle that Aristotle once said, All who have meditated on the art of
governing mankind have been convinced that the fate of empires depends on the education of
youth. It takes genuine transformational leadership to recognize this principle and, consequently, to
develop and deploy the right human resource for national development. Such transformational
leadership was what Chief Obafemi Awolowo demonstrated in the Western Region. This university is
one of the fruits of that exceptional leadership. That kind of leadership was what Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe
demonstrated in the Eastern Region. The University of Nigeria Nsukka is one of the fruits of that
dogged leadership. That kind of leadership was what Sir Ahmadu Bello demonstrated in the
Northern Region. Ahmadu Bello University is one of the fruits of that astute leadership. Lest some
opportunists begin to equate the mere establishment of universities with transformational leadership,
let me point out that these universities were strategic components of broader regional development
plans designed and articulated for each region under the leadership of the respective regional
governments. The absence of that kind of transformational leadership is the immediate cause of our
developmental paradox as a nation.
The lack of transformational leadership is the result of fundamental divisions in our polity. A nation
that is this divided along ethnic and religious lines is bound to make erroneous political decisions. A
situation where the Yoruba man will not vote for an Igbo man and the Igbo man thinks he has nothing
to gain from the government of a Hausa/Fulani man is a recipe for clueless leadership because in
the end our bigotry will exclude the best of us and ensure that the rest of us are governed by the
worst of us. In essence, our developmental challenges have a deeper root cause in our failure to
integrate and become one true nation of diverse peoples. This takes us to another aspect of the
challenge.
A nation of diverse entities and group agitations such as ours must be geopolitically structured to
effectively balance the need for sub-group identity with the pull towards national integration. Genuine
federalism is the ideal structural framework for such. It is instructive that our founding fathers were
able to exhibit transformational leadership in a truly federal geopolitical context. This university would
not be in existence today if the Western Region had no powers to set it up in defiance of a federal
proposition. When the decision to set it up was eventually made, the regional government funded it
from the regions cocoa economy. Imagine what would have happened if the Western Region had to
wait for allocations from Ikoyi, the seat of the federal government at that time, before embarking on
such developmental projects. If that had been the case, there would be no Obafemi Awolowo

University today. Moreover, aside its intended contribution to the national workforce, the university
was set up with the aim of providing for the region the needed manpower to run its peculiar economy.
If that economy had been sustained over the years and had not overrun by the unification decree
and eventually replaced by the current mono-economic structure, no competent graduate of this
university would leave school without the assurance of a job or an opportunity to build a thriving
business. Given the competitive quest for development that characterized the regions at the time,
and given the visionary drive of the respective regional leaders, the same would have applied to
graduates of tertiary institutions across the country including the Northern region which was at first
comparatively disadvantaged.
However, the eventual collapse of that era began when the federal government began to tamper with
the federal structure by its unscrupulous interference in the politics of the Western Region in the
early 60s. The federal structure was eventually destroyed with the unification decree of General
Aguiyi-Ironsi on May 24, 1966.
Since the destruction of Nigerias federal structure, no leader, no matter how charismatic, has been
as transformational in impact as our founding fathers. Potentially transformational leaders in our
post-civil war democratic experience under a pseudo-federal structure have been met with sectional
resistance either at the election stage as was the case with Chief Obafemi Awolowo in 1979 and
1983 or at the post-election stage as was the case with Chief M.K.O. Abiola in 1993. Under the 1999
constitutional and structural arrangement, the electoral experience of General Muhammadu Buhari
since 2003 has been another classic case of sectional rejection of transformational leadership. We
sincerely hope the formation of APC will conclusively change that trend this time around.
This chain of limitations to the Nigerian potential has been further sustained by the non-awareness of
the Nigerian people of the power they have at their disposal and of how to channel that power
towards sustainable national transformation. Worse still, the enlightened component of the
population comprised of the elite and the intelligentsia is often indifferent or given to compromise and
playing to the gallery.
Beyond 2015: Portrait of a Properly Structured and Well-Governed Nigeria
I wish I could begin to paint the portrait of Nigeria beyond 2015 by simply articulating a magnificent
developmental blueprint. We will get to that juncture shortly but it is imperative to first reiterate that,
given our current trajectory in 2015, we are heading for the nightmare scenario, a pathway that will
necessitate a period of reconstruction.
As Simon Kolawole wrote on the back page of the THISDAY newspaper of Sunday 25, 2015, under
the heading Buhari and the Burden of Expectations:

Unfortunately, the reality is that Nigeria will not change overnight. Im no longer a reckless optimist.
There are no shortcuts to solving some of our deep-seated problems. The road ahead is very rough,
particularly as crude oil the livewire of our economy continues to tumble, pricewise. Truth be
told: no matter who wins the presidential election whether it is Jonathan or Buhari there are
tough decisions ahead. Tough decisions about the oil industry. Tough decisions about electricity
tariffs. Tough decisions about military action against Boko Haram, which may come with collateral
damage. Tough decisions about downsizing the civil service. Dont let us deceive ourselves.
Buhari is more realistic than most of his supporters. In an interview with TheCable last year, he said:
Nigerians have to be prepared to suffer for at least five straight years before we can stabilise this
country, security wise and economically. In other words, there are no fertilisers to accelerate the
development of Nigeria. I do not blame Nigerians for being impatient. The only thing a hungry man
wants to hear is food is ready, not food will be ready. But a more realistic expectation is that no
matter who is president, we need policy consistency, commitment and funding for at least 10 solid
years before we can be anywhere near South Korea or Singapore. Rome was not built in a day. No
one man will change or transform Nigeria overnight. Tough truth. [42]
Contrary to prognostications, however, it will be a blessing in disguise as it will afford us the
opportunity to rebuild the foundations. It will be a rare opportunity to rebuild the old ruins of our
geopolitical structure, to raise collapsed institutions, and to implement a robust developmental
blueprint, the output of which will shock the doomsday 2015 prognosticators and transcend the 2050
projections. The portrait of Nigeria beyond 2015 will have the following landmark features:
1.

Reconciliation: The divisions in our polity over the years have beensustained by historical
grievances. The failure of the Nigerian state to address these grievances has produced resentment,
nurtured bitterness and engendered distrust amongst Nigerians against one another and against the
state. It is obvious to the discerning that the planned February 2015 general elections, the
presidential election in particular, however it turns out, are set to aggravate those grievances. The
path to reconstruction will therefore necessitate a genuine reconciliation programme, the blueprint of
which has been created but the modalities of which are beyond the scope of this presentation.

2.

Accurate Demographics: The reconciled peoples must have an accurate assessment of

national and subnational population, not as a prerequisite for the receipt of federal allocation, but for
implementable developmental planning. It will also aid proper constituency delineation and the
creation of a standard voters register.

3.

Restructuring: To keep reconciled peoples together, a governmental framework that

preserves the right of subnational entities to internal self-determination must be put in place. As I

stated earlier, this calls for the adoption of a truly federal structure in the geopolitical and fiscal
sense of the concept in such a manner that effectively jumpstarts the development of all the
federating units. Some of the features of a suitable structure are as follows:
i.

The devolution of governmental powers and responsibilities in such a manner that

governance is brought much closer to the people;

ii.

A strong centre integrating strong and viable federating units;

iii.

The empowerment of the federating units such that public goods can be efficiently

delivered to end users;

iv.

Local governments that are democratically administered and financially autonomous albeit

as channels through which the federating units fulfill the promise of people-oriented governance;
v.

Appropriately sized and efficient governments;

vi.

A legislature that is small enough to minimize the cost of governance yet representative

enough to cater to both large and small sub-national groups on the basis of equality and
proportionality;
vii.

An executive government that is separate enough from the legislature to guarantee

separation of powers yet close enough to the legislature to guarantee accountability as well as
checks and balances;
viii.

The institution of compulsory channels of accountability;

ix.

Equity in resource management as well as income generation and allocation; and

x.

Recognition and optimization of regional or zonal distinguishing factors towards

development and for the purpose of efficient political, economic and social interactions.
4.

Constitutionalism: The reconstruction process must then bequeath to the nation a true
peoples constitution that will codify the aforementioned features and lay genuine claim to the
phrase, We the people.

5.

Institution Building: Within constitutional parameters, the first institution to be rebuilt would
be the electoral body with a view to producing an unbiased and truly independent electoral umpire
whose head will be appointed not by the president but through such mechanisms of checks and
balance as were recommended in relevant documents such as the report of the National Electoral
Reform Committee (NERC) and revisited in the 2014 National Conference. The funding of such a
truly independent body will be drawn from first line charge on the federation account. This would
then set the stage for the rebuilding and strengthening, as the case may be, of institutions of
democratic governance across the different levels and arms of government.

6.

Integration: Upon the foundation of genuine reconciliation, restructuring and

constitutionalism, active steps must be taken to blur the fault lines that have divided us for so long

and to weld the diverse peoples of this nation together so that one people will be formed out of
many, and patriotic devotion to the national cause will transcend regional and ethnic loyalties and
dissipate religious biases.
7.

Social Reforms:The path to recovery will be characterized by transformation in the

education sector across the various levels in terms of improved access to quality education,
innovative education management, world class teacher training and development as well as teacher
evaluation and remuneration. Systems will be designed to constantly reform and update teaching
and learning methods, curriculum and access to cutting-edge technology, thereby astronomically
improving learning outcomes. Moreover, the system will ensure the linkage of the education sector
with the broader socioeconomic framework as part of a new national economic order as I will
describe shortly. Reforms in the social landscape of our nation will also impact the health sector,
empower women and youth, and enhance social security with a view to achieving social justice.

8.

A New National Economic Order:The reconstruction process will eventually bequeath to

the nation a thriving economy bustling with opportunities and ideas and will also provide an enabling
environment for innovation in every sector of the economy. One of the first fruits of this new
economic order will be the emergence of Regional Economic Zones. In this regard, Nigeria will
experience the rise of megacities across the six geopolitical zones such that there will be six unique
models of the Dubai experience. As I hinted earlier, a unique feature of these zones will be the
productive triangular relationship between the ivory tower, industry and government. Public policy
will harness academic institutions for the discovery, development and deployment of talents, ideas,
knowledge and entrepreneurs into industries in the sectors in which each zone has comparative
advantage in terms of human and material resources as well as market potential.
For instance, business clusters will be created to harness the revolutionary DNA of an institution
such as the Obafemi Awolowo University for marketplace innovation. This will be done by
government and the private sector jointly funding targeted research projects in the university while
creating a Silicon Valley-type city around the university to cater to industries such as Information and
Communication Technology (ICT), Agriculture and Biotechnology, Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals,
Building, Automobile, and Cosmetics, as well as service industries such as Finance, Legal,
Hospitality, and Entertainment. Such industrial cities will be powered through Independent Power
Projects with the potential to also provide uninterrupted power supply to surrounding towns thereby
adding the power sector to the industrial mix.
In this triangular relationship, education will be rightly structured as a human resource development
system within a viable macroeconomic policy framework. Hence, educational experience will include
sufficient industrial exposure. A higher education degree will require not just credits and dissertations

but feasible intrapreneurial or entrepreneurial ideas as well as career or business plans as the case
may be. The result will be an explosion in invention and innovation which will translate to start-ups in
some cases and will be integrated into existing businesses through highly profitable business models
in others. This will reduce unemployment to the barest minimum and cause the national economy to
blossom. If Johnny, our zoology graduate and job seeker from an unnamed university had gone
through that system, at the point of graduation, he would have had career options in an array of
industries including agriculture, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals and would have been adequately
capacitated for the entrepreneurial option.
Such unique models will be replicated around various institutions across the federation. Indeed, such
enterprise models will be distilled to the community level in such a way that the information
revolution, the industrial revolution and the agricultural revolution will be rolled into one revolutionary
economic experience for our nation. In effect, we will not only catch up in the race to development as
though receiving multiple compensations for our past troubles, we will blaze the trail by creating new
vistas of economic and technological advancement. The details of these economic models are not
for this occasion but I have introduced to you what is possible with your own university in order to
challenge you to rise up and demand a nation that works.
9.

A New International Economic Order: Nigerias optimal economic performance will

produce ripple effects in the West African sub-region, in Sub-Saharan Africa, and in Africa as a
whole. African countries will begin to experience the transition from poverty and underdevelopment
to prosperity and sustainable development to the amazement of the world. As a result, Africa will be
able to negotiate with the rest of the world from a position of strength as equal partners in mutually
beneficial economic and political relationships, no longer as slaves, no longer as objects, and no
longer as pawns. In this regard, Nigeria will readily provide the needed sub-regional and continental
leadership.

10.

Leadership: At every stage of the reconstruction process, there will be the need for
leadership. Leadership will be needed to steer the ship of state when the storms hit the nation to
ensure that we do not end up in the downside scenario projected by the National Intelligence
Council of the United States. Throughout the reconstruction process, leadership will be required at
various stages and at various levels until we build the Nigeria of our dreams. These leaders will be
God-fearing men and women, people of character and courage. They will be uncompromising nonconformists and a radical opposition to corruption. I believe that such leadership materials are
among you and that the nation will be calling upon you in due time to contribute your quota as she
embarks on her voyage of destiny.

What Students Must Do at This Period in Our Nations History

I presume that the question on your minds at this juncture is, What shall we do at this critical point in
the history of our nation to ensure that we get to the Promised Land? My answer is the same
admonition I gave to students on the 17th of November last year, on the occasion of the International
Students Day, courtesy of Ogun State government:
As individuals and as bodies of students, you must, first of all, self-reflect, self-evaluate, selfreconstruct, self-develop and self-organize. Individual students must take responsibility for their lives
and take personal development seriously for one cannot contribute meaningfully to societal
development without adequate personal development. It was Winston Churchill who once said,
The price of greatness is responsibility. To this end, you must pursue excellence in learning. You
must incline your minds to wisdom, knowledge and understanding for these are the keys to
unblocking the mind and unlocking potential. Then, you must rid yourselves of cultism and other selfdestructive tendencies and take back student unionism from hoodlums and charlatans [43]
After undergoing such rebirth, the student unions must become a shining light to the dark polity,
separating themselves from the corruption and decay in the polity. They must then align themselves
with nation-builders, not self-seeking politicians. They must become crusaders for the restructuring
and rebirth of the Nigerian nation, organizing themselves into a movement for national reconciliation
and integration and placing a demand on Government to implement recommendations that will
rescue this nation from the looming danger, including recommendations from the just concluded
2014 National Conference in which I participated actively as a South-West delegate, in which
students were represented, and in which all the delegates, including the students, signed a Charter
for National Reconciliation and Integration. By that charter, when implemented, a new era of
nationhood will dawn on Nigeria; by that charter, we will cease to be peoples coerced to coexist,
instead we will become a people who willingly come together to forge a more perfect union; by that
charter, our nationhood shall no longer be the result of colonial amalgamation or military
proclamation, instead it shall become the result of a peoples declaration; by that charter, we have
the opportunity to evolve a social contract that spells out the principles under which we shall coexist,
outlines our responsibilities as citizens, and highlights the irreducible minimum conditions under
which we shall be governed and beneath which we shall refuse to be subjected. It is a declaration of
the Nigerian Dream that every Nigerian must become abreast of and whose implementation every
Nigerian must rise to demand. Therefore, Nigerian students must understand the essence of that
charter and become the spearheads of the promotion of its spirit and letter as a necessary step to
national rebirth using every available medium at their disposal. Then, students must actively mobilize
for free, fair and credible elections when the structural and systemic framework for such has been
created.

In relation to the international political and economic order within which our nation currently exists
and which invariably shape your immediate social, economic and political environment, I challenge
you to become more aware and more responsible. I charge you not to reduce yourselves to mere
spectators in the global equation, tossed about aimlessly by the winds of globalization. I charge you
to expose your minds to the right information and to ask questions. As intellectuals, conduct
research, engage local and international communities using social media and other legal avenues
available to you. If you become certain that your government is failing to protect the interest of your
nation in the unfolding international order, you have a right to place a demand on that government. If
I may inform you, certain reforms that you see today in the international social, political and
economic order were made possible because of the events of 1968, a turning-point year in which
students around the world, from Paris to the United States, from Germany to Prague, from Italy to the
United Kingdom and from Poland to Japan, amongst other countries, began to challenge the
injustices of that era, placing demands on their respective governments.
Nigeria, too, has had her experience of students taking responsibility. In 1961, when Britain sought to
sustain the culture of dependency in her relationship with Nigeria through the Anglo-Nigerian
Defence Pact, the students of the University of Ibadan marched to the parliament in Lagos and put
an end to it. Years later, in 1989, when the Washington Consensus, comprised of the United States
Treasury Department and the Bretton Woods institutions, sold to Nigeria the idea of structural
adjustment based on tight conditions that included austerity measures characterized by reduced
government spending on critical social sectors such as education and health, the Nigerian students
once again took to the streets to protest this sell-out of the Nigerian state by the military
administration of General Babangida. I therefore challenge you to restore student unionism to its
glory days. I charge you to bring back the days of the Segun Okeowos, the days of the Segun
Maiyeguns, the days of the Yinka Odumakins, the days of the Joe Okei-Odumakins, patriots who
bore the touch of truth in their time as students.
As you take responsibility for the future of your nation, be guided by an age-long principle which has
guided my involvement in activism right from my days in the University of Lagos and has remained
with me even as we seek to salvage Nigeria on the platform of Save Nigeria Group (SNG). That
principle, in summary is tagged: no revenge, no reprisals, no rage, no resentment, and no violence.
It was disheartening to learn that students of this university turned violently against one another on
account of the recent visit of President Goodluck Jonathan to this campus. Whatever your political
persuasions, you must desist from political violence. Do not waste your youth on account of
politicians no matter what political party or interest they represent.

In conclusion, looking beyond 2015, keep your eyes on the great destiny that is ahead of our nation
and determine not to look back having put your hands on the plough until you have served your
generation with the integrity of your heart and with the skillfulness of your hands, marching on
confidently with this assurance: no matter the storms that lie ahead, Nigeria will be saved, Nigeria
will be changed and Nigeria will become great.
Thank you. God bless you, and God bless our country, Nigeria.
Pastor Tunde Bakare,
Serving Overseer,
The Latter Rain Assembly,
Lagos, Nigeria
&
The Convener,
Save Nigeria Group (SNG).
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[25] See 2
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