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Prof, PhD/Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering/Imperial College London, LONDON, UK.
c.maksimovic author@imperial.ac.uk
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ABSTRACT: Urban surface water flooding is affected by local topography, the drainage infrastructure, the built urban
environment and that events are characterised by rapid onset, high intensity precipitation. Owing to rapid development of LIDAR
technology for generating high resolution DEM/DTM (Digital Elevation/Terrain models) improvement in fine resolution of urban
surface runoff modelling is enabled. High resolution One dimensional (1D) and two dimensional (2D) models have recently been
developed and tested for applications in urban (built) environment. However for reduction of natural disaster caused by this type
(usually called flash) floods in urban areas a new approach for urban surface (pluvial) flood prediction (and warning) is
required.
Keywords: Urban pluvial flooding, rainfall prediction, flood prediction, research needs.
1. INTRODUCTION
Flooding in urban areas is causing repeated damage that calls for improved management of floods from all sources. According to
the UK Governments Independent Review into the summer 2007 flood event (Pitt Review) about two thirds of flood damage in
urban areas was caused by surface water (pluvial) flooding. While fluvial and coastal floods are well documented with extensive
fluvial flood mapping and fluvial flood warning systems in place, this is not the case for surface water. Furthermore the time
scales of fluvial and coastal flooding allows for timely flood warning response. Surface water (pluvial) flooding caused by
intense local storms during which the capacity of the sewer network and of the surface drainage system is often exceeded has,
until now, not been given appropriate attention within Northwest Europe.
Because urban surface water flooding is affected by local topography, the drainage infrastructure, the built urban environment
and that events are characterised by rapid onset, high intensity precipitation, a new approach for urban surface water flood
prediction (and warning) is required. Although significant breakthroughs in advanced modelling of pluvial flooding process have
recently been made (UWRG have developed an advanced pluvial modelling tool), there is a big need to further enhance
predictive capabilities by addressing both short term rainfall prediction and surface flood prediction in highly developed ur ban
environments. This paper presents the state-of-the-art in fine scale (street and property level) urban pluvial flood modelling,
management and initial activities in research of urban pluvial flood prediction.
As opposed the concepts used in the past, mainly based on conceptual simplications and high level of empirical assumptions,
Modelling of rainfall runoff process implemented here is based on mass and momentum conservation principles and spatially
distributed catchment and drainage system characteristics as well as on spatially distributed rainfall as input for modelling.
Implementation of this concept has been enabled by the availability of high resolution LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging)
data. Current technology enables vertical resolution (Z coordinate) of 5- 10cm to be obtained. Following the advancement in
data availability, reliability and affordability, advanced models have been developed over past few years enabling reliable
analysis for planning design and systems rehabilitation to be carried out . Finally after several decades in which conceptual
models have been dominant, advanced physically based models are gradually becoming a norm. Field surveys for model
calibrations have reached level of maturity, thus the conventional models are gradually being replaced with the advanced ones.
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Legend:
Subcatchment
Depression
Flooded area
1
Total rain
Flow in the sewer
Overflow from depression
2
Surface runoff
Effective rain
Outflow to the surface
Fig 1 Dual drainage concept applied in AOFD for urban pluvial flood modelling
Modelling of detailed surface runoff is run concurrently with flow in storm drainage (separate or combined) network. During
flooding period drainage network is usually surcharged and water can flow in as well as out of the network.
The models developed within FRMRC1 include 1D/1D model (AOFD) of UWRG (Imperial College London) presented in
Maksimovi et al (2009) and 1D/2D developed by Centre for Water Systems (Exeter University) and presented by Djodjevi
(2009). The models have been tested thoroughly by independent modelers through UKWIR (UK Water Industry Research) and
the results are presented in Allitt et al. (2009). The results of the modeling have shown the advantages of the two approaches
The concept of the short term rainfall prediction based on combination of several techniques such as (i) NWP (Numerical
Weather Prediction) combined with real time communication of point measured rainfall rata used in combination of fine
resolution radar signals obtained by either X-Band radars or super resolution C-Band ones is presented in Fig 2. The proposed
system is based on combination several technologies, which in the past have been applied separately. Based on general concept
presented in Fig 2 short term rainfall prediction is being developed for input to short term urban pluvial fold prediction presented
in what follows.
NOWCASTING
Meteorological Radar
10 km
C-Band
1 km
1 km
X-Band
100 m
DOWNSCALING
ISSUES
i
T = Current
1 km
Spatial
Temporal
T = Future
CALIBRATION
Fig 2 The concept for development of short term urban pluvial flood prediction
Fig 2 Possible improvements in the state-of-the-art scheme of short term rainfall prediction
4. CONCLUSIONS
The state-of-the-art in urban pluvial flood modelling enables rapid development of pluvial flood prediction.
Initial results in this direction obtained by the UER research is encouraging, but significant efforts are still needed in order to
bring the initial research results to full scale application products, their testing and approval. Since urban pluvial flooding is local
issue it has to be dealt with at local level. Development of local institutions capacity to take-up the technology and to carry out
full scale deployment is a serious challenge which is yet to be addressed.
5. REFERENCES
Allitt, Richard; Blanksby, John; Djordjevi, Slobodan; Maksimovi, edo; and Stewart, David (2009), Investigations into 1D1D and 1D-2D Urban Flood Modelling Proc of the WaPUG Autumn Conference, Blackpool
Djordjevi, Slobodan (2009) 1D, 2D and 3D modelling of urban flooding, Morning Lecture, UDM09 Conference, Tokyo
Leito, Joo; Boonya-aroonnet, Surajate; Prodanovi, Duan; and Maksimovi, edo; (2009) The influence of digital elevation
model resolution on overland flow networks for modelling urban pluvial flooding, Water Science & TechnologyWST, 60.12
Maksimovi, edo; Prodanovi, Duan; Boonya-aroonnet, Surajate; Leito, Joo;. Djordjevi, Slobodan and Allitt, Richard
(2009). Overland flow and pathway analysis for modelling of urban pluvial flooding. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 47(4):512523.
Simes, Nuno E.; Leito, Joo P,; Maksimovi, edo; S Marques, Alfeu; and Pina, Rui (2010) Sensitivity Analysis of Surface
Runoff Generation in Urban Floods Forecasting, Water Science & Technology, (in press)
Wang, Li-Pen; Maksimovi, edo and Onof, Christian (2009). A determinitsic multiplicative cascade method for sub-daily
rainfall forecast, 8th International workshop on precipitation in urban area, St. Moritz, Switzerland, 83-87.