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Energy Technologies for a Low Carbon Future

Insights from Energy Technology Perspectives 2008

Dr Peter Taylor
Acting Head, Energy Technology Policy Division

Global Technology Perspectives and the Role of CHP/DHC in Global Warming Prevention
Sapporo, 4 July 2008
OECD/IEA - 2008

Background
Request for alternative scenarios
by the G8 at the Gleneagles
summit (2005)
ETP2008 publication launched in
Tokyo on 6 June 2008
Conclusions reported to both G8
Energy Ministers meeting (June)
and G8 Leaders summit (July)

ENERGY
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PERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

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Goals of ETP2008
This is a study about the role of
technology in reducing CO2 emissions
It presents key technology roadmaps
that specify development needs
The results can support enhanced
international technology cooperation
It is not meant for country target setting
in a post-Kyoto framework
It is not a study about climate policy
instruments

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2008

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to 2050

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Content of ETP2008
Scenario analysis
Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario
Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT)
Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE)

consistent with WEO2007 450 ppm case

How to get there

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Short and medium term technology policy

needs
Special attention for technology roadmaps

Technology chapters
Power sector
End-use sectors
In support of the G8 Plan of Action

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ACT Scenarios
Energy CO2 emissions in 2050 back
to the level of 2005
Revision of ACT as published in
ETP2006
Options with a marginal cost up to
USD 50/t CO2 worldwide (model
outcome)
Cost estimate has doubled from
ETP2006

ACT implies a significantly adjusted

energy system
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2008

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to 2050

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BLUE Scenarios
-50% energy related CO2 in 2050,
compared to 2005

This could be consistent with 450 ppm

(depending on post-2050 emissions
trends)

Options with a marginal cost of up to

USD 200/t CO2 needed (model outcome)

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Significantly higher cost with less

optimistic assumptions

BLUE is uncertain, therefore a number of

cases needed
BLUE is only possible if the whole world
participates fully
BLUE implies a completely different
energy system
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Emissions Scenarios and

Concentrations
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TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

70
550 (ppm)

2008

Baseline

Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

60
ACT Map
50
455

40

445

30

20

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

BLUE Map

385 (ppm)

485

425

450-520 (ppm)
445

Oceanic
storage
uncertainty

10
0
2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100
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A New Energy Revolution?

1000

Marginal cost (USD/t CO2)

Transport alternative fuels

Technology
Pessimism

800

Industry fuel switching

and CCS

600

500

BLUE Map

400

Power sector

200

200

End-use efficiency

ACT Map

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Technology
Optimism

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

100
50

50

-200

2050 CO2 emissions reduction (Gt CO2/yr)

To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 options

with a cost up to USD 50/t are needed. Reducing emissions
by 50% would require options with a cost up to USD 200/t.
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Final Energy Use

Doubles in Baseline, significant savings in

Policy scenarios

Final energy demand (Mtoe)

18,000

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TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

Buildings

16,000

Transportation

14,000

2008

Industry

12,000

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2005

Baseline
2030

Baseline
2050

ACT Map
2050

BLUE Map
2050

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Primary Energy Demand

Important supply security benefits

Primary energy supply (Mtoe)

9000

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TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2005

2008

8000
7000

Baseline 2050

6000

ACT Map 2050

5000
4000

BLUE Map 2050

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

-27%

3000
2000
1000
0

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Contributions of Technology
Wedges
CCS industry
and transformation 9%

70

Baseline Emissions 62 Gt

60

Nuclear 6%
Renewables 21%

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

Power generation efficiency

& fuel switching 7%
End-use fuel switching 11%
End use electricity
efficiency 12%

30

2008

CCS power generation 10%

50
40

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

20

BLUE Map Emissions 14 Gt

10

WEO2007 450 ppm case

End use fuel

efficiency 24%

ETP2008 BLUE Map scenario

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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Sector Contributions
70

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TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

Baseline emissions 62 Gt

60

Emissions (Gt CO2)

Power sector (38%)

2008

50
40

Industry (19%)

30

Buildings (17%)

20

Transport (26%)
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

10
0

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

WEO 2007 450 ppm case

ETP2008 analysis

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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Global electricity production (TWh)

Power Generation Mix

60,000

Other
renewables
Solar

50,000

Wind

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008

Biomass + CCS
40,000

Biomass

Hydro

30,000

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Nuclear
20,000

Gas + CCS
Gas

10,000
Oil
Coal + CCS

0
2005

Baseline
2030

Baseline ACT Map BLUE Map

2050
2050
2050

Coal
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nuclear and fossil + CCS, nearly half renewables

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Power Sector CO2 Reductions

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

BLUE Map 18 Gt CO2 reduction

Fuel switching
coal to gas
10%

Hydro
2%

Geothermal
3%

Gas efficiency
2%
BIGCC &
biomass cocombustion
8%
Ultra/
supercritical
coal
4%
IGCC coal
4%

In support of the G8 Plan of Action

Nuclear
15%

2008

CO2 capture
and storage
26%

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Wind
12%

Solar CSP
7%

Solar PV
7%

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Role of CHP
Greater use of CHP can significantly raise energy
supply efficiency, but barriers need to be removed
and appropriate policies are required
Current technical potential for CO2 savings from
increased use of industry CHP is 110 - 170 Mt CO2 /yr
CHP use quadruples in the BLUE scenario, its share in
power generation rises from 9% to 14%
The IEA energy accounting system shows the benefits
of CHP as an efficiency gain for electricity generation
Further R&D can lower the costs of new CHP
technologies (e.g. high-temperature CHP, fuel cell
CHP, micro-turbine CHP, CHP with CCS) and allow
greater expansion into new markets e.g. commercial
and residential sectors

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2008

Scenarios &
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to 2050

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Average Annual Power Generation

Capacity Additions, 2010 2050
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2008

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Industry CO2 Reductions

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TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

25
Other (efficiency +
fuel switching)

2008

Emissions (Gt CO2)

20
Electricity supply CO2
reductions
Electricity demand
reduction

15

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

CCS (energy
+process)

10

Indirect electricity
CO2 emissions
5

Direct process CO2

emissions
Direct energy CO2
emissions

0
2005

Baseline 2030

Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 Blue Map 2050

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Buildings & Appliances CO2

Reductions
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TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

25

2008
Fuel switching and
efficiency gains

Emissions (Gt CO2)

20

Electricity savings
15

Electricity supply
CO2 reduction

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Indirect electricity
CO2 emissions

10

Gas
Oil

Coal
0
2005

Baseline 2030

Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 BLUE Map 2050

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Buildings Sector Savings by

Sector and End-use in BLUE Map
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2008

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Transport CO2 Reductions

18

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

16

2008

20

Emissions (Gt CO2)

14

Hydrogen FCVs

12
Electrification
10
8

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Biofuels

6
4

Conv. and Hybrid

Vehicle Efficiency

2
0

CO2 emissions

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Public RD&D Trends in IEA

15%

18000

Nuclear

13%

16000
11%
14000
9%

12000
10000

7%

8000

5%

6000
3%
4000
1%

2000

-1%

Share of Energy R&D in Total R&D

Million US$ (2005 prices and PPP)

20000

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008
Other

Hydrogen and
fuel cells

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Renewable
energy sources
Fossil fuels

Energy
efficiency
Share of energy
R&D in total
R&D

1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

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Technology RD&D Needs

Power generation

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2008

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Building and Appliances

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Energy RD&D Key Messages

Both public and private energy RD&D investments
have declined since the early 1980s
Current IEA Governments energy RD&D - USD 10
billion/yr
Nuclear dominates government RD&D
Companies energy RD&D - USD 40-60 billion/yr
Information about industrial energy RD&D trends is
scarce
Unclear how much RD&D would be sufficient to
meet the goals
Literature suggests USD 10-100 billion/yr
additional investments
Leave it to industry or role for government ?
Cooperation or competition model ?
In support of the G8 Plan of Action

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to 2050

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Total Cumulative Investment

Needs (2005-2050)
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

Investment (USD trillion)

60
50

2008

Total
Distribution

40

Transformation

30

Commercial

20

Industry

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Power Plant

10

Transmission

Residential

Total

-10

ACT Map

Total

Transport

BLUE Map

Demand-side investments dominate additional investment needs above the

Baseline scenario, energy efficiency helps to reduce upstream investment
needs in energy supply and transportation infrastructure
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Cumulative Additional Investment in

the Buildings Sector (2005-2050)
7

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008

Investment (USD trillion)

Space heating
5

Cooking
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

Lighting
4
Water heating

Air conditioners

Appliances
2

Replacement/demolition
Building shell measures

INTERNATIONAL

0
ACT Map
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ENERGY

BLUE Map
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Investment Key Messages

ACT: $17 trillion above Baseline (0.4% of
GDP)
BLUE: $45 trillion above Baseline (1.1% of
GDP)
Demand side investments dominate (4 times
supply side investments)
Even in BLUE undiscounted fuel savings
exceed additional investment needs
The problem for BLUE is not just cost, but:

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

ensuring timely investment, and

sharing the investment burden

Current financing mechanisms are nowhere

near enough to achieve BLUE scenario
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Roadmaps

17 technology roadmaps provide 87% of CO2 savings under the Blue

scenario

Potentials
Pathways to commercialization
Technology targets
How to get there
Key actions needed
Key areas for international
cooperation

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2008

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to 2050

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Key Technology Options

(Roadmaps)
Supply side
CCS power
generation
Nuclear III + IV
Wind
Biomass IGCC &
co-combustion
Solar PV
Solar CSP
Coal IGCC
Coal USCSC
2nd generation
biofuels
In support of the G8 Plan of Action

Demand side
Energy efficiency in
buildings
Heat pumps
Solar space and
water heating
Energy efficiency in
transport
Electric and plug-in
vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles
CCS in industry
Industrial motor
systems
OECD/IEA - 2008

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2008

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Roadmaps Example CCS

10% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map

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2008

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to 2050

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Roadmaps Example Efficiency Buildings and

Appliances
15% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map

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2008

Scenarios &
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to 2050

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Key Messages from ETP2008

Deep emission cuts are technically
achievable
Significant investment required
Credible long-term targets needed

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

This change is urgent

Capital stock turnover is slow
Technology development needs time
Non-cost barriers should be addressed

Global energy technology revolution

needed
Cooperation with DCs is essential
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Thank You !
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2008

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Strategies
to 2050

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peter.taylor@iea.org
In support of the G8 Plan of Action

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