Dark future for coal

India is pushing for more coal-based power generation but recent reports raise
serious concerns over the viability of coal-fired plants
Indias coal-based power plants have doubled in capacity over the past two Plan
periods between 2002 and 2012 and currently stands at 160 gigawatt or GW (60
per cent of total). We rank third in the world behind China and the US in terms of
coal-based power generation. Large reserves coupled with favorable economics
have spurred capacity addition in coal power over the past decade. In 2012, the
Planning Commission (now replaced by NITI Ayog) had forecast that capacity
addition will continue at this robust pace and almost double again by 2022.
In 2011, a study by Prayas Energy Group found that more than 200 GW of
coal-based capacity had been approved by the Union environment ministry for
the 12th Five Year Plan period (till 2017) alone against a requirement of 70 GW.
Another 500 GW was awaiting approval. The study noted that this combined
capacity was three times the capacity additions required till 2032. This could
result in locking up of significant financial resources and create stranded assets in
generation and transmission.
According to a report by CoalSwarm and Sierra ClubBoom and Bust: Tracking
the Global Coal Plant Pipeline a large number of these projects have either been
stalled or shelved. Construction began on just 9 GW of the proposed 500 GW
between up to mid-2014. Between 2010 and 2012, the ratio of completed to
cancelled projects was about 2:1. Between 2012 and 2014, this increased to a
shocking 6:1, highlighting the severity of problems in the sector.
Trigger for protests
Worsening air quality, displacement due to land acquisition, forest destruction,
impacts of fly ash disposal and conflicts over water use have triggered protests
from local communities against setting up of plants. The Centre for Science and
Environments (CSE) Green Rating Project (GRP) notes that the environmental
impacts of this expansion have been severe. In its recent publication, titled Heat
on Power, GRP observed that plants in critically polluted areas in India (as
defined by Comprehensive Environmental Assessment of Industries or CEPI)
contributed to more than a third of the total installed capacity.
Even existing new plants are suffering from poor capacity utilisation (PLF). In
2013-14, PLF for thermal power plants dipped to 65 per cent, which is the lowest
level in 14 years and has stagnated at the same level in 2014-15 as well. This
further questions the need for new plants when existing plants are not being
utilised fully.
The focus for coal-based power sector should be efficient management,
especially in the areas of PLF, efficiency improvement, pollution control, water

consumption and ash utilisation. Whether there really is a need for more
coal-based generation needs to be debated after taking into account the projects
already in the pipeline and the aggressive expansion of renewables, mainly solar,
said Umesh Bapat, former vice-president (operations) of Tata Power Company
Limited.
Who will fund them?
Global financial institutions like World Bank have also committed to not finance
dirty coal projects. This means project developers have to seek out domestic
sources of funding. However, domestic financial institutions are already facing
massive accumulation of non-performing assets (NPAs) on account of the power
sector, and are unlikely to lend given the uncertainties involved. The impacts are
already being felt by BHEL, Indias largest power generation equipment maker.
Its profits slumped by 70 per cent consecutively in the second and third quarter
of 2014-15 due to lack of orders.
Uncertain coal supply is an added constraint for plants. Coal India Limited (CIL)
is notoriously inefficient in coal production and has a monopoly over coal supply
in India. Its average productivity per-man-per-shift is three times below the
global average. Plans are afoot to double CILs production and captive coal blocks
are being auctioned to ease supply. However, these measures are not likely to
take effect till at least 2019.
Time to rethink strategy
Price of renewable energy is set to reach parity with coal-based generation and
even surpass it. Combined with the governments revised targets for renewable
energy capacity of 100 GW by 2022, coal-based generation is likely to face strong
headwinds. Now would be the right time for the government to re-think coals
contribution to Indias energy mix and formulate a strategy to use existing
capacity effectively as well as prevent accumulation of non-performing assets in
the future.
Government establishes NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India)
to replace Planning Commission
NITI Aayog will seek to provide a critical directional and strategic input into the
development process.
In accordance with a key announcement made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi
on Independence Day, the Union Government today established NITI Aayog
(National Institution for Transforming India), as replacement for the Planning
Commission. This comes after extensive consultation across the spectrum of
stakeholders, including state governments, domain experts and relevant
institutions.

NITI Aayog will seek to provide a critical directional and strategic input into the
development process.
The centre-to-state one-way flow of policy, that was the hallmark of the Planning
Commission era, is now sought to be replaced by a genuine and continuing
partnership of states.
NITI Aayog will emerge as a "think-tank" that will provide Governments at the
central and state levels with relevant strategic and technical advice across the
spectrum of key elements of policy.
The NITI Aayog will also seek to put an end to slow and tardy implementation of
policy, by fostering better Inter-Ministry coordination and better Centre-State
coordination. It will help evolve a shared vision of national development
priorities, and foster cooperative federalism, recognizing that strong states make
a strong nation.
The NITI Aayog will develop mechanisms to formulate credible plans to the
village level and aggregate these progressively at higher levels of government. It
will ensure special attention to the sections of society that may be at risk of not
benefitting adequately from economic progress.
The NITI Aayog will create a knowledge, innovation and entrepreneurial support
system through a collaborative community of national and international experts,
practitioners and partners. It will offer a platform for resolution of inter-sectoral
and inter-departmental issues in order to accelerate the implementation of the
development agenda.
In addition, the NITI Aayog will monitor and evaluate the implementation of
programmes, and focus on technology upgradation and capacity building.
Through the above, the NITI Aayog will aim to accomplish the following
objectives and opportunities:

An administration paradigm in which the Government is an "enabler"

rather than a "provider of first and last resort."
Progress from "food security" to focus on a mix of agricultural production,
as well as actual returns that farmers get from their produce.
Ensure that India is an active player in the debates and deliberations on
the global commons.
Ensure that the economically vibrant middle-class remains engaged, and
its potential is fully realized.
Leverage India's pool of entrepreneurial, scientific and intellectual human
capital.
Incorporate the significant geo-economic and geo-political strength of the
Non-Resident Indian Community.

Use urbanization as an opportunity to create a wholesome and secure

habitat through the use of modern technology.
Use technology to reduce opacity and potential for misadventures in
governance.

The NITI Aayog aims to enable India to better face complex challenges, through
the following:

Leveraging of India's demographic dividend, and realization of the

potential of youth, men and women, through education, skill development,
elimination of gender bias, and employment
Elimination of poverty, and the chance for every Indian to live a life of
dignity and self-respect
Reddressal of inequalities based on gender bias, caste and economic
disparities Integrate villages institutionally into the development process
Policy support to more than 50 million small businesses, which are a
major source of employment creation
Safeguarding of our environmental and ecological assets

The Himalayan waters: complex challenges and regional solutions

Countries in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region should recognise the potential of
water resources for sustainable development
It is difficult to think of a resource more essential to the wellbeing of people and
their economies than water, yet managing water resources is a complex and
challenging task. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region heavily depends on
water resources for irrigation, food, hydropower, sanitation, and industry, as well
as for the functioning of many important ecosystem services. Water thus directly
contributes to the national GDP and to livelihoods and income generation at the
local level. Although water is the foundation of sustainable development, water
management in the HKH region remains fragmented and uncoordinated, and
does not take relevant regional issues into account.
Many big rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra originate from the
snow and glacier-covered high mountains, and have abundant seasonal and
annual water supply. Despite this, mountain people living on the ridges and hill
slopes have limited access to water for drinking and agriculture. Throughout the
mountain region, springs are reported to be drying, and mountain agriculture has
suffered from drought. The shortage of water has placed an increasing burden on
mountain communities, particularly on women. Furthermore, the communities
face loss of property and lives due to water-induced natural hazards. Climate
change has exacerbated the situation by creating uncertainty about the future
water availability and water security. Understanding the characteristics of water
is crucial for sustainable water management. This article attempts to highlight

some of the complexities and challenges of water management in the HKH region
and discusses a possible way out for sustainable management.
Mountain people living on the ridges and hill slopes of Hindu Kush region have
limited access to water for drinking and agriculture in the absence of
coordinated water management
Water and energy
Energy is one of the most important pillars of sustainable development. In the
HKH region, hydropower is one of the most promising environmentally friendly
sources of energy. With a potential estimated to be 500,000 MW, the region has
abundant opportunities for hydropower development. Energy security can open
up opportunities for development and employment and contribute to the national
GDP. Moreover, innovative solutions such as electric transportation and a clean
source of domestic and industrial energy supply would significantly improve the
deteriorating environmental condition of the region. However, many countries in
the region have been able to tap only a small fraction of their available potential.
Out of the 42,000 MW potential reported in Nepal, only about 2 per cent is
harnessed so far, whereas Pakistan has harnessed 11 per cent of its total potential.
Still, people in both these countries face many hours of scheduled power cuts.
Water and the environment
Water plays a vital role in maintaining different ecosystem services in riparian
areas. Freshwater ecosystems in particular largely depend on the specific flow
regime of rivers passing through them. However, due to intervention of
infrastructure development, the flow regime changes in the downstream areas,
where, in many cases, communities depend on water resources for livelihoods
such as fishing. A major concern is how to make sure that a certain minimum
flow is maintained so as to sustain freshwater supply and support dependent
ecosystems. There is very weak monitoring of the minimum flow requirement in
the region.
Water for food
Water and food share a strong nexus, both being essential ingredients for human
survival and development. Agriculture is a major contributor to the GDP of
countries in HKH. In Nepal, it contributes to 35 per cent of the national GDP. The
Indus river system is a source of irrigation for about 144,900 hectares of land,
whereas the Ganges basin provides irrigation for 156,300 hectares of agricultural
land. Access to water resources for food production and their sustainable
management is a concern from the local to national level. Amid rapid
environmental and socio-economic changes, the growing population will require
more water and food, and equitable access to vital resources has become a major
question. Sustainable solutions to these problems require efficient use of water
resources for agricultural use in which technological innovation plays a vital role.

Water and disaster

Due to its physical setting, the HKH region is prone to various water-induced
hazards (landslides, floods, glacial lake outburst floods, and droughts). Every year,
during the monsoon season, floods wreak havoc on the mountains and the plains
downstream. These floods are often trans-boundary. Globally, 10 per cent of all
floods are trans-boundary, and they cause over 30 per cent of all flood casualties
and account for close to 60 per cent of all those displaced by floods. The social
and economic setting of the region makes its people more vulnerable to natural
hazards. Lack of supportive policy and governance mechanisms at the local,
national and regional levels, and the lack of carefully planned structural and
non-structural measures of mitigation lead to increased vulnerability.
Regional cooperation
The examples above show that water has both beneficial and adverse traits, its
management is complex, and often a regional approach is necessary. The
hydropower potentials are primarily concentrated in the mountain regions but
the major users of the energy are the urban areas and industries in the plains.
Strong technical and political barriers separate those regions, which is one of the
major reasons of slow progress in hydropower development. However, recent
trends have shown some positive change. In the recent 18th SAARC summit in
Kathmandu, the SAARC member countries signed a Framework Agreement on
Energy Cooperation. This agreement has opened up the energy market in South
Asia, and thereby possibilities for cooperation in the energy sector. However, it
remains to be seen to what extent the collaboration would play a role in energy
security.

Tibetan part of koshi basin. The Koshi Flood Outlook being developed by
ICIMOD and its national partners in Nepal and India has high potential for
saving lives and properties in the basin .
There are strong indications the HKH region is going to be warmer in the coming
years. Precipitation is likely to increase in different places and have more

inter-annual and intra-annual variability. What does the change in temperature

and precipitation mean to water availability in the HKH region? What
complexities do the cryosphere dynamics add to this equation? Should these
changes be of concern to water resources development in the region? These
questions cannot be answered without concerted efforts of the regional countries.
The regional nature of the natural hazards requires a regional approach to the
solution. Effective flood management requires sharing data and information
between the upstream and downstream areas, not only within the country, but
also at the trans-boundary level. Technological innovations based on satellite
information, in combination with ground-based data, can be transformed into
information that can prove vital in saving lives and properties. For example, the
Koshi Flood Outlook being developed by the International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and its national partners in Nepal and India
has high potential for saving lives and properties in the basin. Such efforts should
be promoted widely in the region. During the Jure landslide event of August 2014
in Nepal, during which the Sun Koshi River was blocked for several days, a great
concern emerged from the Indian side regarding the status of the landslide and
the likelihood of an outburst flood. The flood outlook was helpful in providing
important information. This example shows that disaster risk reduction could be
an entry point for immediate regional cooperation. This will create trust, which
can be a basis for future cooperation for maximising benefits such as energy trade.
Countries of HKH region should recognise the potential of water resources for
sustainable development. These resources can help reduce poverty, improve
livelihoods, conserve ecosystems and contribute to flood and drought
management in the region. This will not only help us face the present crisis, but
also open up avenues to deal with issues of future water availability amid climate
and socioeconomic changes. Regional cooperation should be based on the three
pillars of sustainability: economic vitality, environmental integrity and social
equity, both at the national and local level.

When will India wake up to freedomfrom

air pollution?
Londons worst air day is good air day by Indian standard
On March 17, London Mayor Boris Johnson issued the first high air pollution
warning this year when pollution levels for PM 2.5 crossed 60 g/cum. This is
considered safe by Indian standard
In January this year, London Mayor Boris Johnson launched an air quality
campaignBreathe Better Together. It was started to raise awareness about air quality
through posters and advertisements on radio while promoting walking and cycling.

On March 17, Johnson issued the first high air pollution warning, requesting
all vulnerable children and adult groups with lung and heart problems to
avoid outdoor activities. Some of the worst levels of pollution were
measured in the Midlands, north-west England and northern Ireland. The
PM2.5 (particulate matter the size of 2.5 microns or less) levels were
reported to be as high as 66 microgram/cubic metre (g/cum), almost three
times the prescribed EU standard of 25 g/cum. He also gave some tips to
reduce pollution, which included car-pooling and switching off engines
while not in use.
UKs Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) said
change in direction of winds carrying dirty air from urbanised and motorised
regions in Europe to Londons home-grown smog and still weather led to the
high pollution levels. The swathe of air entering the UK is mostly from
northern France, said media reports.Scotland also received an air quality
warning from the international network of environmental organisations,
Friends of the Earth (FOE), regarding particulate matter reaching an all time
high since August 2012, with Aberdeen being the worst affected. According
to FOE, the local vehicular pollution (of the UK) was a big contributor to
such high smog levels. Government officials accepted the need to do more
despite having made substantial progress in curbing air pollution. The Met
department is also closely working with Public Health England, the
executive agency of the Department of Health in the United Kingdom, to
provide accurate information on air pollution and relevant advice to public.
What is interesting to note is that what is alarming pollution level for
London, which prompted the Mayor to caution the city residents, is treated
as the safe limit for PM2.5 limit in India60 g/cum. This not only
highlights the weaker standards in India as compared to European Union
(which follows WHO norm) but also calls for strict action from the Indian
government in cases of violation of air pollution standards.
Environmentalists in Scotland have demanded free bus service and public
transport to remove private vehicles from the roads, following the example
set by Paris.
In March, 2014, Paris gained a lot of attention when certain regions
experienced particulate matter pollution as high as 180 g/cum while the
maximum permissible limit is 80g/cum. This compelled the authorities in
Paris to cut down private vehicles on the road. It also made public transport

free over the weekend to get its public to use buses and trains and share
bikes. The city also adopted alternate vehicles systemallowing cars with
either odd or even number plates to ply on alternate days. The spokesperson
of prime ministers office of France had gone ahead to say that officials were
aware of the inconveniences this could cause the public but it was an urgent
requirement. Paris also does not allow diesel cars on smoggy days.
Even Beijing has woken up
In the past, Beijing was tagged the most polluted city in the world. However,
the citys authorities have started implementing a strict air quality index and
release regular air quality warnings with its implications on health. Not only
have they acknowledged their problem of air pollution but have also made it
an important topic of political discussion. China has unveiled strict action
plans to curb its air pollution. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province, the Yangtze
River Delta and the Pearl River Delta were were asked to reduce their PM
2.5 levels between 2013 and 2017 by 25 per cent, 20 per cent and 15 per cent
respectively.
Beijing has implemented an emergency response plan wherein authorities
inform the public about bad air quality days. They suggest measures on how
public can protect themselves, ask schools to shut down and 80 per cent of
government-owned cars are to be taken off the road on red alert days. On
orange alert days when Beijing is slightly polluted (AQI 101-150, class 3),
they shut down polluting factories. Even barbecues and fireworks are banned
on heavy pollution days.
Air pollution is the fifth largest killer in India. When I returned to India in
2013 from Scotland, I started experiencing breathing troubles and acute
sinusitis. My doctor could only put me on steroidal sprays but was unable to
identify the exact cause. With time when I started working on the issue of air
pollution and health in Delhi, I realised it was Delhis rising air pollution
that was affecting my lungs. However, not many people in India research on
air pollution to find out the severity of these levels. I was lucky.
I was also part of the Centre for Science and Environment team that
monitored some eminent and common citizens of Delhi to test their real time
exposure to fine particulate matter and the results were stunning While the
peaks of their real time exposure to PM2.5 crossed 1,000 g/cum, the
24-hourly averages were 4-5 times higher than Indias safe standards
(60g/cum) for ambient air quality. The worst-affected people were those

using public transport, including buses and autos. Why is it that London
issues air quality alerts on reaching 66 g/cum when Delhi does not have
any warning on crossing 500 g/cum? The most impacted are children and
the elderly. Recent studies have also reported that air pollution is reducing
Indias life expectancy by 3.2 years. How many lives would it take for our
government to wake up? On days when China would shut down its schools
and factories and Paris would remove cars from the road, India sleeps
unaware.
Indian government needs to acknowledge this problem wholeheartedly and
implement our proposed national air quality index to inform people on the
impacts of air pollution on particularly bad days and also take stringent
measures to reduce it. It also needs to expand the real time air quality
monitoring throughout India, starting with the worst polluted cities. We
demand clean air. Let us not make respiratory diseases a part of our culture.

A year after worst Ebola outbreak, world is still

unprepared to tackle such epidemics
Viruses, not wars, may kill people in large numbers in future

A year into worlds worst epidemic of Ebola, the world does not seem better
prepared in any way to handle outbreaks of the type caused by the tiny virus that
left nearly 10,000 people dead and millions affected. Even today, scientists have
not certified an Ebola vaccine that can prevent further outbreaks; and researchers
have not been able to establish the source of this unprecedented outbreak. This
explains the challenges that are facing doctors, researchers, decision makers and
the vulnerable populations.

Though the outbreak has subsided now, it would not be over as late as August,
says World Health Organization (WHO) in one of its reports.Till now, the current
outbreak has claimed about 10,000 lives, destroyed several families, rendered
millions in the West African region food insecure, and is posing livelihood threat
to millions who managed to survive the deadly outbreak. The World Food
Programme has already warned that 1.4 million people could become
malnourished because of Ebola.
For West Africa, the vulnerability of whose health systems has been exposed, the
challenges go on from providing better infrastructure to scaling up of
immunization activities. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next
decades, it is most likely to be a highly infectious virus, rather than a war: not
missiles, but microbes, says philanthropist Bill Gates in a latest TED talk. But
before that, the challenge for established medical research centres in the US, the
UK and other parts of the developed world, is to develop and provide such
vaccines to those who cannot afford to manufacture them on their own.
Though drug trials have been initiated and allowed by the WHO after immense
pressure and criticism from the international communites, the road ahead is not
easy. Funding and inadequate health infrastructurehave a major role to play in
outbreaks like these, Tarik Jasarevic, spokesperson of WHO, told Down To Earth.
A few researchers say there was not much interest or funds to study the disease
that affected only the poor living in the hinterlands. This is for the first time the
virus has afflicted those living in urban areas, including capital cities, and a few
foreign nationals. Moreover, this was also the deadliest among five strains of
Ebola that has hit humans till now since the time the Ebola virus was first
discovered in the 1970s.
Another basic problem has been highlighted in a report by Medicins Sans
Frontiers (MSF), a non profit that was closely involved in treating Ebola patients.
To declare an end to the outbreak, we must identify every last case, requiring a
level of meticulous precision that is practically unique in medical humanitarian
interventions in the field. There is no room for mistakes or complacency; the
number of new cases weekly is still higher than in any previous outbreak, MSF
says. Though a few recent technological developments like that of an Ebola-proof
tablet will make it easy for the doctors to handle and analyse patient information,
more efforts are needed to ensure awareness against the causes behind such
diseases. Cultural practices like rubbing down bodies at funeral rites before
interment have been one of the prime reasons behind its rapid spread in the
African countries.
Tracking Ebola outbreak
It is widely believed that the first person to have succumbed to the disease in the
current outbreak was a two-year-old in a remote part of Guinea. However, no one
is sure how the virus entered the childs body. Researchers who have studied the

disease think the virus in transmitted from animals in the form of bushmeat and
that deforestation is one of the triggers of such
outbreaks.http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/ebola-unleashedBut what we
are sure about is that it took a further three months for the international health
body to officially declare an outbreak and another few months to announce a
public health emergency. By the time an international emergency was declared in
August 2014, nearly 1,000 people had succumbed to the deadly virus. Whats
more, the declaration coincided with two health professionals from a US-based
non-profit, Samaritans Purse, contracting the disease in Liberia. The doctors,
however, were successfully treated in the US. Soon after this, more people in the
US were affected and a Roman Catholic priest was reported dead in Spain. This
led to more urgency for making treatments available as the international
community began to realise that the outbreak was not restricted to Africa.
How prepared is India?
Meanwhile, India was making all possible measures to check the entry of virus
into the country. The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare had said that
it had put in place the same surveillance and tracking systems to check Ebola that
proved successful in Nigeria. Thermal scanners were set up in most of the 15
major airports and more are likely to be purchased and installed..
It was strict measures that prevented Ebola from entering India. But had the
virus once crossed the security gates of any airport, it would have been next to
impossible to curb its spread. India has a huge population, and urban centres are
very densely packed. This could pose a challenge because it would be very
difficult to isolate patients and trace their contacts for observation. These
elements could make containing Ebola more challenging in India than in some
other countries, Peter Piot, co-discoverer of the Ebola virus and director of the
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told Down To Earth
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/unprepared-ebola.
All these threats are enough to make us realise that the fight has to go on for long
and can be won only if people from different walks of life and different countries
work together.

African countries to discuss INDCs, low-carbon

development
Meeting assumes importance in light of the new climate agreement to be signed
in Paris in 2015
The 7th Africa Carbon Forum will take place in Morocco to discuss and consult
the African countries Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).
Ministers from these countries will meet from April 13-15 to also explore

opportunities for low-carbon development. INDCs are voluntary country-specific

climate actions required to be submitted well in advance before the Paris summit.
Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said, A visionary agreement in Paris
can, in concert with an inspirational suite of sustainable development goals, assist
in further unlocking Africas inordinate potential for clean, green, low-carbon
development. She recognised the vital role that the Carbon Forum can play
towards this end.
The forum, which supports Africas access to green investment, will discuss
trends in the international carbon market and look for strategies and models that
can fast track the finance and mechanisms needed to realise these aims. Other
items for discussion include finance and project opportunities from the Green
Climate Fund (GCF) and opportunities in result-based financing.
The Africa Carbon Forum is organised by UNFCCC, United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), along with UNEP-DTU Partnership, World Bank (WB),
African Development Bank (AfDB) and International Emissions Trading
Association (IETA). The forum takes place under the umbrella of the Nairobi
Framework, which was launched in 2006 by then UN Secretary-General Kofi
Annan. The aim of the forum was to assist developing countries, especially those
in subSaharan Africa, to improve their level of participation in the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM).

Can Sendai Framework ensure a climate-resilient

future?
Sendai agreement needs to be dovetailed with sustainable development goals
and the new climate agreement that will be signed in Paris later this year
Negotiators in Sendai were supposed to agree on a much-needed, bold new plan
to build countries resilience to events like Cyclone Pam that has just devastated
Vanuatu, one of the least developed nations.
Governments of 187 UN member states have adopted a 15-year plan with targets
to substantially reduce deaths and economic losses from disasters. Called the
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, it is the first major UN
agreement on the post-2015 development agenda consisting of four major aims
and seven targets to be met by 2030. The Sendai plan, adopted last week at the
UN Conference on Disaster Risk Resduction, will replace the existing Hyogo
Framework for Action (2005) that ends this year.

This first major UN agreement on the post-2015 development agenda will drive the future
for a sustainable and disaster-resilient world along with the sustainable development
goals and the Paris climate agreement to be decided in September and December
respectively this year.
Why world needs a new disaster framework
The Hyogo Framework for Action has been an important instrument for raising public
and institutional awareness, generating political commitment and focusing and catalysing
actions by a wide range of stakeholders at all levels but much more is still left to be done
even as the 10-year blueprint expires this year.
Over these 10 years, disasters continued to take a heavy toll on lives and property. Over
700,000 people lost their lives, over 1.4 million were injured and approximately 23
million were made homeless as a result of disasters. The total economic loss was more
than $1.3 trillion. Besides, around 144 million people were displaced by disasters
between 2008 and 2012.
But the world is still far from prepared. Several gaps remain in addressing the underlying
disaster risk factors to formulate goals and priorities for action and ensuring adequate
resources for implementation.
The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) had, in fact, expressed
disappointment over lack of political will and determination in promoting and integrating
disaster risk reduction into development programmes, as per the Hyogo Framework of
Action, and had demanded more action from the countries in its report
released ahead
of the disaster risk conference (see Natural disasters will soon cost world $314 billion
annually: UN).
Negotiators in Sendai were supposed to agree on a much-needed, bold new plan to build
countries resilience to events like Cyclone Pam that has just devastated Vanuatu, one of
the least developed nations, say activists (Photo courtesy UN)
Governments of 187 UN member states have adopted a 15-year plan with targets to
substantially reduce deaths and economic losses from disasters. Called the Sendai
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, it is the first major UN agreement on the
post-2015 development agenda consisting of four major aims and seven targets to be met
by 2030. The Sendai plan, adopted last week at the UN Conference on Disaster Risk
Resduction, will replace the existing Hyogo Framework for Action (2005) that ends this
year.
This first major UN agreement on the post-2015 development agenda will drive the future
for a sustainable and disaster-resilient world along with the sustainable development
goals and the Paris climate agreement to be decided in September and December
respectively this year.

What the new framework says

Disaster-resilient 2030: seven targets under Sendai agreement

The framework outlines seven global targets to be achieved over the next
15 years
1.

$ A substantial reduction in global disaster mortality by 2030

2.

$ A substantial reduction in number of affected people by 2030

3.

$ A reduction in economic losses in relation to global GDP

$A substantial reduction in disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic

ser services, including health and education facilities

$ An increase in the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction
strategies by 2020

$ Enhance international cooperation to developing countries through adequate and sustainable

su
support to complement their national actions for implementation of this framework

$ Increased access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and
assessments.

4.

Addressing environment as the cross-cutting issue, the Sendai Framework

suggests incorporating disaster risk reduction measures across various sectors,
including those relating to poverty reduction, sustainable development, natural
resource management, environment, urban development and adaptation to
climate change.
Sendai Frameworks warning
"The effects of disasters, some of which have increased in intensity and have been
exacerbated by climate change, impede their [small island states] progress towards
sustainable development, says the document. Even as this agreement has been adopted,

the 10-year review conducted by UNISDR showed over 87 per cent of the disasters were
related to climate change.

Sendai disaster-risk targets contribute to achieving post-2015 agreements on

sustainable development goals and climate.
Margareta Wahlstrm, head of UNISDR, said, This new framework opens a
major new chapter in sustainable development and the implementation will be
vital to the achievement of future agreements on sustainable development goals
and climate later this year.

Connecting dots between new Sendai agreement, Post-2015

Sustainable Development Goals and Paris climate agreement

All three agreements share a common aim of making development sustainable

A synergy is clearly visible between the sustainable development goal (SDG 11)

for safe and resilient cities with this disaster risk declaration which aims to reduce
loss and damage of disasters on urban infrastructure and the community

Linkage between SDG3, focusing on health outcomes and disasters risk,

also cannot be ignored. It may be noted that the target 3d of SDG 3 focuses
specifically on disaster risk reduction

The IPCC special report, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and

Disasters to Advance Climate Change (SREX), shows the linkages between

disaster risk reduction in sustainable development and climate change adaptation.
It details the role and opportunities involving a wide variety of stakeholders and
communities in managing disaster risks due to the climate change.

Vague targets, low commitment

But half-measures and disappointing business-as-usual financial commitments
are the hurdles.
Not investing in disaster risk management is a missed opportunity for social,
economic and environmental progress, says a report released at the conference,
titled Unlocking the Triple Dividend of Resilience.
Although the insurance sector has pledged to double its investments to US $84
billion by COP 21 (Paris Conference of Parties) and then increase it 10 times to
US $420 billion by 2020, commitments by the rich nations at this UN conference
were disappointing.
Disappointed over the financial commitments by the developed nations, Scott
Paul of Oxfam said that negotiators in Sendai were supposed to agree on a
much-needed, bold new plan to build countries resilience to events like Cyclone
Pam that has just devastated Vanuatu, one of the least developed nations.
Instead, what was adopted is a set of half-measures that will not keep pace with
rapidly rising disaster risk around the world. Lack of concrete financial
commitments threatens to undercut the international communitys anti-poverty
agenda, he said.

Marcus Oxley from the Global Network of

Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction (GNDR), expressed fear that
targets of the new agreement have been weakened in terms of how nations will be
held accountable to deliver the intended outcomes.
How much has the world lost due to disasters? Who is losing the most? How
much should the world plan to invest?
The world reported over $ 2.8 trillion (in constant 2005 US dollars) in economic
losses from natural disasters and Asia and the Pacific alone reported $ 1.15
trillion of economic losses, amounting to 40.7 per cent of the global total.
An investment of just US $6 billion annually in disaster risk management would
result in avoided losses of US $360 billion over the next 15 years, said UNISDR,
and advised governments to plan and set aside the required resources.
But disaster risk reduction planning must be integrated with broader global and
national efforts to achieve sustainable development. And with targets without
numbers and no substantial financial commitments from the rich nations,
questions as to whether the disaster-risk conference fulfilled the expectations and
the new Sendai agreement can ensure a disaster and climate-resilient future,
remain unanswered.

Sendai framework on disaster risk

reduction disappoints
Goals are without specific time plan and targets
On the midnight of March 18, representatives from 187 UN member states
adopted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 with
seven targets and four priorities for action. After the marathon negotiations
that preceded the convention,one would have expected a clear cut action plan
and commitments from developed nations. So far, it is understood, only Japan
made some funding commitment for this proposal as the five-day-long
conference wrapped up.

In 2013 cyclone Phailin ravaged over 300,000 houses in coastal Odisha in

India's east coast, which is listed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change among regions of maximum vulnerability
Earlier proposals for percentage goals were rejected, so the current set looks
like vague targets. The current framework for 15 years replaces the 10 year
long Hyogo Framework for Action. The Sendai Framework aims to lower the
global mortality rate from disasters between 2020 and 2030, compared with
2005 to 2015, and reduce the proportion of people affected.
Read more
Natural disasters will soon cost the world $314 billion annually: UN
Floods in 4 states lead to economic loss of Rs 19,000 crore in past one year

Disasters and the related devastations have increased in the last decade despite of
the existence of the Hyogo Framework, the current Framework
recognises. During 2005-2015 alone, over 700,000 people lost their lives. More
than 1.4 million people were injured and approximately 23 million became
homeless due to disasters.
The worlds worry about disasters, more so due to climate change, has aggravated
manifold as more than 1.5 billion people were affected by disasters in various
ways during the last decade. Women, children and people in vulnerable situations
were disproportionately affected. The total economic loss was more than $1.3
trillion. In addition, between 2008 and 2012, 144 million people were displaced
by disasters.
Disasters induced by climate change have in fact increased in frequency and
intensity. While there are more noises around large-scale disasters among
planners globally, the conference rightly points out that recurring small-scale
disasters and slow-onset disasters particularly affect communities, households
and small- and medium-sized enterprises. In fact, these sections of people face a
high percentage of losses.
While all countries face mortality and economic losses from disasters, in the case
of developing countries these are disproportionately higher. In fact, poor
countries face increased levels of possible hidden costs and challenges to meet
financial and other obligations. And, as we know, they are the least prepared to
handle the challenges. Take for example India that faces huge losses due to
climate change-induced disasters, so much so that the expenses on adaptation
increased from 2.6 per cent in 2012 to 6 per cent of the countrys GDP in 2014.
And the country is even not able to assess the real (covering all areas and all
intensities) losses and damages due to climate change properly.
Just take the water crisis faced by the nation, most of which is due to climate
changeglobal and local (growth induced)and you would realise the vastness of
the problem that the country faces now. Eight of the 10 warmest years in the
countrys history fell in the last decade; and almost 54 per cent of the countrys
geographical areas face high to extremely high water stress. Things are getting
worse and we have not been able to cope with such disastrous situations.
The Sendai Framework recognises that the goals of sustainable development are
being outsmarted by the gaps in progress and achievement agenda such as the
Millennium Development Goals and have tried to give a perspective to overcome
all these so as to contribute meaningfully and substantially to the new era
December climate negotiations in Paris, however, the broadness of the goals
without specific time plan and targets disappoint us.
It recognizes the need to develop an action-oriented framework that
Governments and relevant stakeholders can implement in a supportive and
complementary manner that can help to identify disaster risks to be managed and

guides investment to improve resilience. It also recognizes some vital factors

that are contributing to the disasters and rightly mentions about the role of
unsustainable urbanisation.
However, it completely fails to discuss the way we produce our energy and the
impacts there from. Fossil fuel, especially coal, continues to be the major source
of our energy. The GDP growth oriented economy, that most of the climate
change vulnerable countries such as India are following in fact not only
contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions and disasters but also increase lot
of local woes that club the impacts and devastate the poor the most.
The commitments for the Sendai Framework are voluntary but unless the signing
countries adhere to green growth models, most of the goals would remain to be
addressed in the same light even after 15 years. A new framework may then be
developed but the gaps in implementation and disasters would have grown.

Disturbance from West ceases, mercury set

to rise
Relief in sight for states in the grip of swine flu
Latest data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms what most
Indians already know from experience. The data shows rainfall received between
March 1 and 13 in most areas (coloured blue in the India map) has been in excess
of 20 per cent or more. In this period, India normally receives about 9.8mm rain
but this time it has received 33.2 mm rain.
The figures in the map may not appear alarming but its important to note that
these are the weighted average values (weighted mean). In this method of
averaging, proper numerical weights (numbers) are assigned to every observation
and then their weighted mean is calculated. Rainfall measurement is done in a
similar manner as explained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) of the US. As per this technique, India reported a strong
239 per cent departure (from normal) in rainfall in this period. The weather event
which lasted between February 28 and March 3 has been the major contributor in
this rainfall amount.
Swine flus link to weather events
These back to back rainfall events not only damaged the crops but also kept a lid
on the maximum temperatures at many places. Such a condition is usually
favourable for the swine flu virus which has been causing a havoc in India.
Maximum impact of swine flu is being reported from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,
Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat. State-wise per cent
rainfall departures (March 1 to March 11) in these states are astonishing. The per
cent rainfall departures (from normal) in Gujarat is 42,811; 2,757 for Rajasthan;

932 for Madhya Pradesh; 1,240 for Delhi; 720 for Telangana; 1,554 for
Maharashtra and 750 for Uttar Pradesh. The rainfall amounts will be even more
when the data from past week weather outbreak is considered.
After these havoc-causing events in the initial two weeks, weather in India has
started to stabilise. Going by the projection of weather models like Global
Forecast System (GFS), it looks like some significant heating is possible over the
next couple of days. This is likely to kick off the summer season in India. The
meteorological seasons in India, as defined by IMD, are pretty strange. According
to its definition, India has a winter season which lasts between January and
February but it doesnt have a summer season. Most of India (except for parts of
southern India) witnesses winter conditions mostly from November. IMD defines
the October- December period as a post monsoon period. It calls the period of
March to May (when India sweats due to significant heating) as the pre-monsoon
season.
As per GFS, no western disturbance is expected in India for (at least) one week.
Plus, the upper air is also expected to remain stable as no trough is expected over
India in the next few days. Hence, the weather is likely going to stay clear at most
of the places which would be an important factor in increasing the heat and hence
the temperatures--maximum and minimum. Even the swine flu-affected states
are going to witness significant heating which would likely result in a drop in the
number of swine flu cases.
The above image gives an idea of the expected heating. Top map shows the
expected mean surface temperature (in degree Celsius) between March 18 and 26,
2015. The scale is given to the left side. Bottom image shows the expected
temperature anomaly (in degree Celsius). The long range forecast (March 26 to
April 3) given in the middle image may not be that reliable right now but it is
possible that the heating will continue in April first week also. Reddish regions in
much of India indicate higher than normal temperatures. Below is what can be
expected till March 26, 2015.
Initially, places in Rajasthan would be getting a maximum temperature around
35C and it may rise even further in the next week. Maximum temperature in
Jaipur is expected to remain near 32-33C in this period. Gujarat is also going to
get higher maximum temperatures in the coming days. Significant heating is
possible due to which maximum temperatures will likely stay in the 35-40C
range. Maximum temperatures at places like Vidarbha in Maharashtra are likely
to near 40C. Other places like Marathwada will also witness maximum
temperatures around 35C in the coming period. Mumbai should be staying at
around 35C. Delhi, too, will start experiencing heating as maximum
temperatures will touch 30C initially and then will rise above 30C in the coming
period. Places in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh will also be warm. Many
places in Telangana are already reporting a maximum temperature of around
35C. The weather is likely to be similar in the coming period.

Al Gore's sunny proposal to India

Climate crusader and former US Vice President wants India to
realise its solar potential; but solar energy alone cannot solve
problems of climate change
On a warm Sunday morning in February, Nobel laureate and former US vice
president Al Gore addressed a crowd of 450 participants (mostly between 25 to
35 years) in India. The three-day Climate Reality Leadership Corp, organised by
Climate Reality Project, was a unique training programme with participation
from over 15 nationalities. Discussions on climate change and proposed solutions
for the global crisis during different sessions by Gore and 20 other eminent
speakers were aimed at imparting skills to communicate the kinds of challenges
and opportunities that climate change has brought about.
Having been involved with the issue of sustainable development for a decade as a
corporate social responsibility (CSR) professional, I was excited to attend a talk
by the climate crusader Gore whose craft in simplifying climate change is
unparalleled.
Gore touched upon significant issues: sulphur rains on planet Venus, global CO2
level of 400 parts per million or ppm in 2014 (experts claim 500 ppm is a critical
barrier that will define environmental impact for the next 200 years), heat waves,
heavy downpours, droughts; challenges of hunger, water supply shortage and
infrastructure meltdowns, among other things. His presentation that was loaded
with impressive charts and graphics also touched upon global warming-led
biodiversity losses.
However, his pitch on air pollution in New Delhi seemed oversimplified. His
contention that burning fossil fuel to produce electricity increases air pollution is
perhaps premised on his agenda to promote renewable energy. Given that most of
India gets 300 days of sun per year, Gores pitch to make us urgently realise our
full solar potential is logical, but fails to sink its teeth into the nuances of
renewable energy assimilation. Solar power alone cannot arrest problems of
climate change, however ambitious Prime Minister Modis target of 100 GW solar
power by 2022 might be.
Pollution in India is not just due to fossil fuels burnt to produce electricity
fumes from vehicles, many of which are global brands, add to it too. There is also
pollution due to disposal of e-waste dumped in India by developed countries like
the US. Why should the urgency to address climate change push renewable
energy, particularly solar, as the primary solution then?
In 2014, the US had filed a complaint against India at the World Trade
Organization. The US alleged that India's National Solar Mission discriminated
against US solar equipment manufacturers as it required solar energy producers

to use locally manufactured cells, and offered subsidies to those who used
domestic (Indian-made) equipment. The country also alleged that forced
requirements for localisation was a hurdle for US-made equipment coming to
India, denying US companies a greater access to the vast Indian market of 1.2
billion people. This explains US interest in Indias solar journey and offers
context to Gores appreciation of PMs solar mission. It could well be a
political-diplomatic move through generating mass consent.
It is equally interesting to note that Gore co-founded Generation Investment
Management (GIM) in 2004, which he continues to chair even today. GIMs
vision is to embed sustainability in mainstream capital markets and financial
investments. With funds like Global Equity, The Climate Solution, The Asia Fund,
Al Gore has been accused by many critics of tapping into mass hysteria created
about climate change. According to an article dated March 2013 in Forbes
magazine, both Gore and his investment partner David Blood have not only
emphasised on the regulatory risk of fossil fuel investment, but also aggressively
worked to ensure it. It further states that between 2008 and 2011, the company
had raised profits of nearly US $218 million from institutions and wealthy
investors.
Ironically, while the GIM investments were to be channelised towards clean and
green renewable energy, it has mostly been invested in mainstream profit-making
corporations and their products that include fast-moving consumer goods
(FMCG), higher technology, medical instruments, among others. One of the few
solar companies that the funds did initially invest into, First Solar Inc, crashed
soon enough mainly due to competition from cheaper Chinese solar panels and
products. This led to greater cynicism regarding investments in the sector.
According to Bloomberg .com, GIM dumped its last stock of First Solar (one of
US largest solar panel makers) at a US $165.9 million loss in 2012.
This makes one wonder if Gores campaign for solar energy in India is also
backed by business motivations. Two days after the Delhi event, First Solar Inc
announced its plans to set up a manufacturing unit in India for its thin-film
modules. The capacity is expected to be 5GW in next five years. Following this
SunEdison, a rival of First Solar, also announced that it would build the largest
Photo Voltaic (PV) factory in India. Sure solar investments are good for India, but
only with local context plugged into it.
Further, as per International Energy Agency, Indias energy demand by 2040 will
be 15 per cent below European Union (EU), but the needed power output will
exceed that of EU, due to transmission and distribution losses (if we continue as
per current trends). Solar and wind could thus provide an answer to some of
these predicaments and help decentralise energy demand. However, how much of
this actually takes off in terms of operational and cost efficiencies remains to be
seen.

In the seminar, Gore noted that Germany generates 37 per cent of its daily
electricity from wind and solar, and that analysts predict that the number will rise
to 50 per cent by 2020. What he did not point out was that German households
pay the second highest power costs in Europe, as much as 30 per cent more than
other Europeans. The German industrial electricity prices have also doubled as a
result of rising surcharges due to the expansion of renewable energy, The
Economist suggests. Unless renewable energy subsidies try to contain these
spiraling costs, even countries like Germany will find it difficult to balance costs
with energy consumption.
There were several other local aspects around the climate change discourse that
did not find much place in Gores argument. Climate change adaptation
(especially for the poor), role of local techniques such as watershed management
in curbing water run offs from heavy downpours, climate change impact on
gender and the need for disaster management in case of an eventuality needed
much more attention.
In his dramatic closing remarks, Gore suggested that we all must advocate, speak
up and win all conversations related to climate reality, hoping that this builds
pressure on governments and people to act on the issue urgently. While India
strives to deliver on some these promises, the complete truth of climate reality
remains (in)conveniently under wraps.

Raining troubles
Little-understood western disturbances have been blamed for most of the freak
weather events in India in the past decade. With 50 per cent of its foodgrain
production at risk, can India afford to ignore the phenomenon?
The sight of wheat, mustard, gram and fenugreek crops spread over 10 hectares
(ha) would fill Vidyadhar Olkhas heart with joy. It was end of February and the
crops were almost ready to be harvested. A week later, all he had was a mat of
leaves and stalks lying on the ground. The rain and hailstorm in the first week of
March destroyed 70 per cent of his crops in Jhunjhunu district of Rajasthan.
Olkha has no idea what brought so much rain this March. Neither do scientists
and weather forecasters, who attribute the rain to western disturbances and have
different theories on what made the disturbances so severe this year.
Western disturbances are low-pressure areas embedded in the Westerlies, the
planetary winds that flow from west to east between 30-60 latitude. They
usually bring mild rain during January-February, which is beneficial to the rabi
crop. But in the past few years western disturbances have been linked to disasters.

The cloud burst in Leh in 2010, the floods and landslide in Uttarakhand in 2013
and the excessive rain in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 were all linked to these
disturbances. This year, as per the India Meteorological Department (imd), the
average rain received between March 1 and March 18 was 49.2 mm197 per cent
above normal. This caused severe damage to crops in several states of the country.
According to a statement by Union agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh in
the Rajya Sabha on March 19, crops in over 5 million hectares have been
damaged. But despite the destruction the disturbances have been causing, there
have been very few studies to understand them.
Scientists agree that western disturbances are formed naturally. They originate in
the Mediterranean region and travel over Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan to
enter India loaded with moisture, where the Himalayas obstruct them, causing
rain and snow in western Himalayas. The snow adds to the glaciers which provide
water to Indias major perennial rivers. But what is it that is making this
beneficial weather phenomenon increasingly disastrous?

Theories abound

There is no unanimity among scientists on the reasons behind the changes in the
phenomenon. They offer a number of explanations:

Easterly wave:
According to IMD, the severe rain this year is the result of the confluence of
western disturbance and easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal. Easterly wave, or
Easterlies, blow throughout the year from east to west. The confluence of the two
winds happens throughout the year, but the results vary. They generally bring
rain only to the northern part of the country but this year states in central and
south India also received rain, says B P Yadav, head of IMDs National Weather
Forecasting Centre. Western parts of Madhya Pradesh, for instance, received over
2,025 times more than usual rainfall during March 1-18, while the rainfall in
central Maharashtra was 3,671 times above normal, says IMD data. Yadav says
the change in rain pattern is part of natural weather variation.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation:

Jason Nicholls, senior meteorologist and manager of international forecasting at
AccuWeather Inc, a global leader in weather information services, offers a more
complicated reason. He says a phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) contributed to the severity of this years rainfall. PDO is the name given to
long-term fluctuations in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. In areas
above 20 north off the western coast of North America, cooling is observed
during the negative phase of PDO while warming is observed during the positive
phase. This shift from one phase to another happens every 10 years or in
multiples of 10 years and is yet to be understood properly. PDO influences the

placement and intensity of ridges (high-pressure areas) and troughs

(low-pressure areas) over the northern hemisphere. Nicholls says that the wet
winter seen this year and in 2013-14 was caused due to the impact of a very
strong positive PDO. The warm waters in the west coast of North America led to
a strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. Another ridge
prevailed over the central Atlantic Ocean which allowed storm systems to move
through Europe into southeast Europe and the Middle East. A weakness between
a couple of such ridges allowed storm systems to move into Afghanistan, Pakistan
and northern India over the past couple of winters/springs, he explains.

Scientists' take
"Our study suggests that human-induced climate change is
the reason for the increased variability of western
disturbance"
- R Krishnan, scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology, Pune

"The confluence of Westerlies and eastern currents brought

rain to far off states such as Maharashtra"
- B P Yadav, head, National Weather Forecasting Centre,
IMD

"A phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation made the

rains so excessive this time"
- Jason Nicholls,senior meteorologist, AccuWeather Inc

"The rain can be mostly explained by natural short-term

weather events. There is nothing too unusual or any sign of
climate change"
- Thomas Reichler, scientist, University of Utah, USA

Jet streams: Akshay Deoras, an independent weather expert based in

Maharashtra, says that widely used weather models, such as the Global Forecast
System, are consistently showing the movement of new upper air troughs into
India. Such troughs in the jet streams (narrow bands of strong winds flowing in
the upper troposphere) could be affecting the western disturbances which, imd
says, are present in the lower and middle troposphere. One such trough started
forming in the upper troposphere over Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan on
February 26 and intensified and moved towards north-western parts of India on
February 28. This led to the formation of a low-pressure region in the lower
troposphere over northwest India, causing an incursion of moisture from Arabian
Sea, and produced heavy rains. The rainfall on March 14-16 was also caused by a
similar upper air weather set-up. This shows how problematic the combination of
western disturbances and upper air troughs can be for India, says Deoras.
But all these explanations are based on climatic phenomena that have always
existed. What is making their impact increasingly severe now? A few studies say
that global warming holds the clues.

Heating of the Tibetan plateau:

A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has directly
linked western disturbances to global warming. In a paper published in Climate
Dynamics in February 2015, the researchers say global warming is impacting air
currents and causing freak weather events. Pronounced warming over the
Tibetan plateau in recent decades has increased the instability of the Westerlies
and this has increased the variability of the western disturbances. According to
the study, the western Himalayan region has seen a significant rise in surface
temperatures since the 1950s. Observations from the area show a significant
increase in precipitation in recent decades. The researchers looked at a variety of
climate data to understand the increasing frequency of heavy precipitation. They
say temperatures have risen in the middle- and upper-tropospheric levels over
the sub-tropics (area between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn)
and the middle latitudes. Our study suggests that human-induced climate
change is the reason for the increased variability of western disturbance, says R
Krishnan, one of the researchers. The findings are based on direct observations
and we are now using climate models to confirm if the impact is human-induced,
says Krishnan.

Arctic warming:
Another study which blames global warming is by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers
University, New Jersey, and S J Vavrus of University of Wisconsin- Madison,

both in the US. The study, published in the January issue of Environment
Research Letters, suggests that heating up of the Arctic has weakened the jet
streams in the northern hemisphere. The west to east flow of jet streams in the
northern hemisphere is maintained by the gradient of heat between the cool
Arctic and warmer areas near the equator. But the Arctic has been warming since
the past 20 years due to which the jet streams have become weaker. Rather than
circling in a relatively straight path, jet streams now meander. This is making the
South colder and the North warmer. Francis says western disturbances could
definitely be affected by these jet streams.

Regional factors at play'

There are also those who believe that climate change is not the culprit. Scientists
like Thomas Reichler from the department of atmospheric sciences, University of
Utah, USA, do not link global warming and abnormal weather events. These can
be mostly explained by natural short-term weather events. There is nothing too
unusual or any sign of climate change, says Reichler.
Newly appointed IITM director M Rajeevan also does not subscribe to the theory
of global warming and says that such events are regional.
There does seem to be an increase in western disturbances, but it appears to be
part of natural variability. A variety of factors could be at play and a detailed
analysis is needed, he says (see Enigmatic disturbances). Dieter Scherer, chair
of climatology, Technische Universitt Berlin, Germany, holds a similar view. It
is well-known that precipitation is a highly complex phenomenon caused by
processes on a wide range of spatial scales. These highly complex multi-scale
atmospheric processes are yet not fully understood and need more research, says
Scherer.
Rajesh Kapadia, a meteorology enthusiast who writes on weather trends in his
blog vagaries of the weather, points out that there is nothing extraordinary about
the event and India has witnessed similar weather events. In March 1915, Delhi
received 78 mm of rain while in March 1945, the temperature recorded in the
city was as low as 4.4C. We have had cold weather even in May, he says, giving
the example of May 14, 1982, when the temperature dipped to 25C. There is
nothing to worry about as of now, but if this weather continues it might affect
monsoon in north India. However, it is too early to know, he says.
Enigmatic disturbances
There is not much data on western disturbances. According to A P
Dimri, professor, school of environment science, Jawaharlal Nehru
University, New Delhi, there has been very little research on
western disturbances because most researchers prefer to study the

monsoon which is considered lifeline of Indian agriculture. R

Krishnan,a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology, says that even defining or counting a disturbance is
tricky because when western disturbance moves over a long
distance, its strength changes and one can never be sure when a
new disturbance gets formed or an existing one undergoes change.
These disturbances originate thousands of kilometres away and
travel over countries where data collection is sparse. India has
facilities to study the weather but observational data from
Afghanistan and Pakistan is virtually non-existent, says A
Jayaraman, director, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory,
Department of Space.
B P Yadav, head of IMD's National Weather Forecasting Centre,
says that more disturbances are being observed these days because
the technology to detect, monitor and predict has improved. IMD is
now undertaking studies to understand western disturbance, Yadav
adds.

The trends are likely to continue and the country could see a few more
disturbances in March and April. The peak activity of western disturbances is
usually seen in January. This year they were delayed and the cold, wet weather
could spill over to April too, says G P Sharma, vice-president, meteorology,
Skymet Weather Services, a Noida-based forecasting company. Rains in April
could have huge implications for agriculture, Sharma says.
Rabi crop accounts for 51 per cent of the countrys grain output and sustains
Indias requirements till October till the kharif crop is harvested. Therefore, the
winter crop has a significant bearing on food inflation. The fact that kharif yield
in 2014 was below normal makes the situation even more grim. And the impact of
crop damage has already started percolating to consumers. Vegetable prices
increased by 30-40 per cent after rains in Delhis wholesale markets.

Losses and government aid

As states calculate crop loss, there are reports of farmer suicides in Maharashtra
and Uttar Pradesh. Protests have also reached Delhi, where farmers have been
holding an indefinite demonstration at the Jantar Mantar from March 18,
demanding compensation. While the Union government has assured all help,
states too have been announcing relief packages. Maharashtra, which has been
struggling with drought and is now faced with excessive rain and hailstorm, has
announced a compensation package of Rs.7,000 crore. Of this, Rs.4,000 crore
have already been credited to the bank accounts of 78 per cent farmers in the
state, said a state government press release on March 16. The state has also
demanded Rs.6,000 crore from the Central government.
In Rajasthan, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje announced on March 16 that if the
crop loss is over 50 per cent, farmers will get aid and exemption from paying

electricity bill. However, the survey to assess the damage has not been
completed. It should end by March 25 and compensation should be available
thereafter, Rajasthan agriculture minister Prabhu Lal Saini told Down To Earth.
For the families of the 25 people who died due to the calamity in the state, Raje
has announced a compensation of Rs.3 lakh. Relief packages have also been
promised by states such as Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

Ill-prepared for disasters

This raises the question of what could have been done to prevent the loss of crops,
particularly at a time when India is witnessing a spate of extreme weather events.
According to World Bank, between 1996 and 2000, direct losses from natural
disaster cost India over 2 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Without
adequate measures to mitigate climate change, these costs could amount to 10
per cent of the gdp by 2100, warns an Asian Development Bank report released in
2014. A few weeks ago, the 14th Finance Commission recommended a whopping
Rs.55,000 crore allocation for disaster risk reduction. This is more than double
the amount recommended by the 13th Finance Commission.
The situation needs to be dealt with at two levels: a proper scientific analysis of
western disturbances to make accurate forecast and a long-term adaptation plan
for farmers. Yadav says imd can predict a disturbance a week or 10 days in
advance. But there is little one can do to prepare for the effects of the disturbance.
The most farmers can do is to ensure that the fields are well-drained and, if time
allows, set up nets for protection from hailstorms.
The grimmest aftermath of the weather event is the surge in farmer suicides. And
while the disturbances cannot be avoided, effective planning can definitely help
contain the loss of lives. For starters, the Centre must prioritise crop insurance
and ensure that the existing schemes are implemented effectively. Recent
experiences have shown that many of these freak weather events are localised and
affect some farmers more than others. By taking averages of crop loss over large
areas, as stipulated in the existing schemes, the government fails to help the
people who need help the most. Farmers are worried. It is no longer acceptable to
consider these weather events normal. The scientists and the government need to
meet the challenge.