Study Report - Local Level Hazard Maps For Flood, Storm Surge & Salinity - 2013

Local Level
Hazard Maps
for FLOOD,
STORM SURGE &
SALINITY
June 2013
June 2013
Conducted By
/tD
^
^
DWDW//
DDZ
First Published in June 2013

DWDW//
D&
D
d

t
Copyright @ CDMP II 2013
Z

Edited by
Sanjib Kumar Saha
ZD
Mirza Shawkat Ali
^
Shaila Shahid
^
Cover design
/t
Printed by
^>
Z^D
t
STUDY
TEAM
Md. Zahirul Haque Khan
d>D^
/tD/tD
Mr. S. M. Shah Newaz

^&D^
/tD/tD
Md. Mobassarul Hassan

^^^
/tD/tD
Md. Yusuf Mamun

&D^
/tD/tD
Ms. Morsheda Begum

^D
/tD/tD
Dr. M. I. Sharif
^
^^
Md. Abu Sayeed

D^
^^
FOREWORD

d
'

d

/

d

/
/
,
/
D W DW // D
D Z
ZZ
/>>,D&^^
^,

/

/
Mohammad Abdul Qayyum

EW
DWDW//
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
d > > , D & ^ ^ ^

DW

DW
/tD/tD
^
E s Z h D dh/
hEW D D Z W ^Wt D
^ D < W hd D ^ W ^
KtZWK

d

&DD
DZ
hEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
iii
,WdZ

/

^
KK^t
D
>^
,WdZ ^
,WdZ ^^&^
13
,WdZ

^^/,Dh
^^^/,D
^,^^
hs^^D
,D
D
^^D
W^^/,D
/,D
/,D
17
,WdZ

W&Dh
hs&D
'DD
ZZD
D
&Z&t><>
&/W^&
W&D
&D
&DzZW&
&D
29
CHAPTER 6

:

51
Salinity Zoning Map for Cluster Unions

hs^D
Z^D
^D
sD
^DD^
^D
^D
CHAPTER 7 : Conclusions
ANNEXURE A : Global Tide Model
EEyhZ /
ANNEXURE C : Survey Log Sheet
ANNEXURE D : Comments and Responses
69
71
95
99
LIST OF TABLES
d
d
d
d
d

d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
/
/
/
/
WÊE
^Z^&

>'D
>
>
K

&
W
>
>
Z
>

W
>
2&D
LIST OF FIGURES
&
&
&
&

&
&

&
&
&
&
&
&

&
&
&
&
&
&
&
&
&
&
&

&

&

&
&
&
&
&
&

&

&
^
&
&
D
'ZZW
WZ
'

^
ED
D
sD:,
^
&
/h
/Dh

/h
/Dh

Z
&
d'DD

',

>,
&WWh^^h
&/h
&hhh^
&hhh^

&hhh^

&hhh^
&
&
&
&
&
&
&

&

&

&
&hhh^
Z^^tZD
^

'DD
t
DZh&D

DZhD

DZh&D

DZh&D
ACRONYMS
AR4
BMD
BoBM
BWDB
CDMP
CRA
DEM
DHI
EHRM
FFWC
FM
GBM
GCM
GIS
GPS
IPCC
IWM
MSL
NCRM
NERM
NWMP
NWRM
PWD
SERM
SWMC
SWRM
SWSMP II
/WZ
D
D
t
DW
Z
D
,/,/t
,ZD
&&t
&D
'D
'D
'/^
'W^
/W
/tD^tD
D^>
EZD
EZD
EtDW
EZD
Wt
^ZD
^tD/tD
^ZD
^t^DWW//
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION

' D
,Z
,
d
d

,/
d
DWDW//DDZ
,Z,Z
DW,
/,,
/
,
DWDW// /tD/tD
Storm Surge Inundation

d

d
h
D KE D
K

d
/
,
d,d
,
d,
Flood Inundation

d
'Wt/

,d
,
,

d
d h

/

/ d h h

^
ZEZE^
&&
Salinity Maps of the Coastal Area

^
>D^
ED^
:^DW^
d
^
d
/2/

EE
W
,

Benet of Inundation Hazard Maps

Storm Surge Inundation maps

>
/>
^/Z
,,^
,d

d
d
,

Flood Inundation
D
d
d,
Z
&
,
Salinity Intrusion
^

^
^
CHAPTER
Introduction
1.1 Background

'D
d
/
,
d2d

'D
d

d t t

,D

^
^
d
d
d
,/
d
DWDW//DD
Z Z Z
ZZDW,/
,,
&,ZZW
W&&t&&tt
,&&t
td

d,,
,
d D W DW // / t
D/tDK
1.2 Study Area

d&
d,
&
DW
Figure 1.1: Study area (colored shows the selected districts)
1.3 Objectives, Outcomes and Scope of Works

Objectives
d
d

d
Outputs

h

&
^
&,,

^

^

/,
/,
Scope of the Study

d

Z

h

,

D

DW
^

'

'

,

K
Z
1.4 Approach and Methodology

Data Collection

Selection of Climate Change Scenarios

d

/
^

,
d

d
Storm Surge Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

^,^^D&
Extreme
^^D&d
d
D
&'/^
Flood Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

&EZ
DEZDEZD^ZD^ZD
,ZDd

'/^&
Salinity Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

^,

d'/^
&D
1.5 Limitation of the Study

d
d

d

d ^

d
D

D/WZ
/D
,
>
Z
,
CHAPTER
Data Collection, Screening and Analysis
tD

d

^
dd
Water level data

Zd
Discharge data
&d
d
Salinity data
^^W
d
Based on salinity data, a map of maximum salinity was produced for the southwest region of the coastal area. The maximum salinity map is furnished
in the Figure 2.1.
500000
400000
Maximum Salinity (ppt)
Z<
t
500000
50
25
600000
&D'ZZW
WKKD^^2070612]
D^
^D^
LEGEND
400000
Map Showing Yearly Maximum Salinity (ppt) (2010-2011)

^/
50
<
700000
CHAPTER
Selection of Climate Change Scenarios for Cyclone, Flood and Salinity

d
Sea Level Rise:

/ Z /W Z
/W ^ Z W
&d
' d ^ Z '
Z&'
0.7
0.6
Sea level (m)
0.5
SRL(cm)
0.4
150
^>ZW
140
IPCC Synthesis Report 2009
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50 cm
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
&WZ^Z
0
38
2002
-200
2002
20
15
10
5
1978
1983
1988
1993
Year
1993
2003
2008
Mas Change (Gt)
25
Total Mes Asea (10 km )
30
-400
-600
-800
-1000
2007 Extreme Summer Melt
-1200
2003
2004
2005
Year
2006
2007
2008
&'
/&^Z
Z&Z'
Wind Speed
h
t<d/W

^ ^

,
^^
Precipitation
W/W,
^Zd
Note: DJF: December-January-February, MAM: March- April-May, JJA: June-July-August, SON: September-October-November
Note1: :&:&DDDD::::^KE^KE
Note2^
/
&d
&
^
^
/
d
^d'D'D
'D'D
d
W'D^D,D'&>D/ZKh<DK/tD
&
/
/WD/ZKh<DK'&>
/W^D,D
/W
KD/ZKh<DK
/W^D/ZK/W
D/ZK
&/
h<DK
h<DK
D/ZK
D/ZK
'&>
'&>
,D
,D
^D
^D
/W
&
CHAPTER
Storm Surge Inundation Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

4.1 Selection of coastal districts for storm surge inundation Hazard map

Ed
&
Figure 4.1: Coastal districts

of Bangladesh
4.2 Simulations of historical storm surges

d d

d
/

>d&
Figure 4.2: Simulated cyclone tracks
4.3 Updating and validation of Bay of Bengal Cyclone and Storm Surge Model
4.3.1 Hydrodynamic model
d
dD/<,/d
dD/<

d
dD
&D
Figure 4.3: Nested bathymetry of Bay of Bengal Model
Following data were used to develop the Bay of Bengal Hydrodynamic Model:
Bathymetry Data
dd
D ^ D ^ W // D^
// D W ^ /W^tD t
t
Topographic Data (Digital Elevation Model)

d&/EEDW&WED
t < : Z W
<W<Wd&/EEDW
DD
dD&
&
Model of coastal region of
Bangladesh
Boundary Data
dd
D
'dDd
d^
Calibration and validation

d
&
^
D
D:

&s
Bay of Bengal Model

Jahajmara ghat of
,
East Shahbazpur
channel
22
4.3.2 Cyclone model

&
Z
D

E
Cyclones Data
d D D d
W t
ZD
4.3.3 Storm surge model

d
,,

,

t

&
d^/Z/>
Initial conditions
/
d
d
/d
/

,
&
DD

23
4.4 Preparation of Storm Surge Inundation Hazard Maps

4.4.1 Inundation Hazard maps for base condition

h
D'/^
DW
^&&
&/
24
&/Dh

&&
h
/2
&
4.4.2 Inundation Hazard Maps for Climate Change Condition

/^
&&
&/h
&/Dh

&d2
d,

&

& / &

Inundated area with inundaon depth of 1 m

25000
20000
Area (sq. km)
/
> E
W W
:

<^
W
:
15000
Base Condion
10000
Climate Change
Condion
5000
0
South West South East Eastern Hill Total Region
Figure 4.13: Regionwise inundated area for more than 1m depth
29
CHAPTER
Preparation of Flood Depth Map for Cluster of Unions
/tD
^

D/<'/^dEtDWd

d&
&
Dh,h,
5.1 Updating and validation of existing ood models

5.1.1 Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin Model
d 'D 'D &&t t
/tDd
dD/<^/E'/^
,/td'
D'
Dd
,,,
>
/d,'
d
/d
d'D
&d,
&
Figure 5.2: The GBM Basin Model
Figure 5.3: Comparison plot of model simulated and measured/rated discharge of the
Brahmaputra Basin at Bahadurabad
32
Figure 5.4: Comparison plot of model simulated and measured/rated discharge of the Ganges
Basin at Hardinge Bridge
33
Figure 5.5: Comparison plot of model simulated and measured/rated discharge of the Barak Basin
at Amalshid
34
5.1.2 Regional River Models

d E Z D EtZD E Z D EZD E
Z D EZD ^ Z D ^ZD ^ Z D ^tZD ,
Z D ,ZD ^ t ^ D W
W//^t^DW//
d&d

d
d
t >
,
t,
,ZDd
^
&d
Figure 5.6: Boundary of six regional models
5.1.3 Bay of Bengal Model

dd

dD
Initial conditions for ood model

/
d
d
/d
/

,

5.2 Frequency analysis on river ow and water level at key locations

'D
'
D &

/
'&

d
,'Dd
,zDK^,zDK^
t>>&d,zZh>/^d,zDK^
,zDK^
,
d
dd/d
D'
D
'
EE
E
>E,&
Return period
1.25
10
20
100
1,000
1,000
10,000
18.5
18
reduced variate observed frequencies
17.5
17
16.5
16
15.5
15
14.5
14
13.5
13
Frequencies
regression Line
Upper Confindence limit data
reduced variate observed frequencies
lower Confindence limit data
Figure 5.7: Log

for Hardings Bridge
Log-Normal Distribution mx=1.06 5x=0.17 X0=11.18 95% Confidence interval
5.3 Collection of Field Information on Past Severe Flood

D&
&/

&
,'W^
d

/^>
&&WWh^^h
d
D/:d
&
/h:
39
&&/h
5.4 Preparation of ood zoning maps

&

ZZs/t'/^
5.4.1 Flood maps for 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007

d
,
d

d
d
42
43
Figure 5.10: Flood map of Barahar Union under Ullahpara Upazila

of Sirajganj District for the year 1988
44

Figure 5.12: Flood map of Barahar Union under Ullahpara Upazila of Sirajganj District
for the year 1998
5.4.2 Flood maps for 10 and 20 years return period ood

&
d
dd
ZE
E'E^
DE^

d
5.4.3 Flood maps in changing climate

&
D/ZK

d
d


49
h^
d/

/&
/d&
/d&&&
&&

dd
CHAPTER
Salinity Zoning Map for Cluster Unions

h
d
Z'/^'/^^Z/
6.1 Updating and validation of existing salinity models

^
6.1.1 Regional Salinity Models

/tD &

Dd

^
d
d

dD/<D/<&D

d

dD/<

Figure 6.1: River System of the South West Region Model
The South West Region Model (SWRM)

d^tZD^tZD'D
d&d^tZD
2d/
d
D
&''
>D
/'<:h
Dd:DW
^d>D/
d^D&

d ^tZD
d
'D
d'Z'ZWZ
h D Z
hD
Z'Z
'Wd

The South East Region Model (SERM)

ZZD/<
d
d
d

dE
/&d
^ZDd

d
/>DhD
d//
>DÊ
<& Z&
&
d
Figure 6.2: Southeast region model river network
^
D>DZ
'D'DE
d
The Eastern Hilly Region Model (EHRM)

d , Z D <,/ ^ D
dd
<,/^
D d d
<Z<<E,ZW/Z
dD
d,ZD&
Figure 6.3: Eastern hilly region model river network
6.1.2 Bay of Bengal Salinity Model

dD/<&D,/t
dD/<&D
d>D>
&dWtD^>d
/
&'DD
d>D
d
,/
dE^
ZDWZ<ZWZ^<Z
6.1.3 Validation of Models

d
/
t&
&t
Initial conditions
/
d
d
/d
^
/
,

^
/
/

6.2 Spatial distribution of maximum and minimum salinity

^'D

d

dd
d

dK>D
D'D
d^
K
6.2.1 Salinity maps for base condition

D
&&&DD
Figure 6.6: Maximum salinity in Rupsa Upazila during the month

of February in the base year

of March in the base year

of April in the base year

of May in the base year
6.2.2 Salinity maps for climate change condition

D
&&&DD
Zd&D
/d
D2/
d
W^
/W

of February in the year 2050

of March in the year 2050

of April in the year 2050

of May in the year 2050
CHAPTER
Conclusions
/
'Dd
K
/
/ , ,
^'D
^^

Flood Inundation Map

&

d
&
/
&&
dK&&
Strom Surge Inundation Map

^
/
/
>EWW:
<^W
:

/2

Salinity Distribution Map

^&
^

/
d
W^
/W
Benet of Inundation Hazard Maps

d

d

d
,

D
d
d,
Z
&
,
^

^
^
ANNEXURE
Global Tide Model
Global Tide Model

d''dDEÊ^''
&
d'
d
dD^<E<KWY
&dD
&dD
Satellite data used for the Ocean Tide model

d

TOPEX/POSEIDON
MEASUREMENT SYSTEM
GPS
SATELLITE
SATELLITE
ORBIT
RADAR
AKTIUCTER
RANOUNO
DORS
BEACON
MICROWAVE
MEASUREMENT
OF COWNNAR
WATER VAPOR
OCEAN
TOPOGRAPHY
LASER
RANGING
STATION
GEOID
SEA SUREACE
h
SEA
LEVEL
GEOD
SEA FLOOR
TOPOGRAPHY
REFERENCE ELLIPSOID
&dW
ddKWyWK^/KEdW&&
Z^'&K
dW
ddW
&dW
dWdW
K
dW
&dKWyWK^/KE&

dKWyWK^/KE :^KE &
dKWyt
&dWEt^
dZ^dW
^'&K'&KD
dW
ddWZ^
dZ^,
Z^dZ^
^
Consequently the following data were used.

O
O
O
O
O
dW:^KEyE
dW
dW/D
'&KEE
ZÊs/^dEE
^
Computation of the Ocean Tide Model

d'
d
&^>W
/
Validation against Tide Gauges

d

/
d
>WdW
d
Zd
K
/KWKd&
&>
Extraction from the Global Tide Model

'dDD/<
&
/
hd'DdE
ANNEXURE
Initial Condition
B. INITIAL CONDITION
North-East regional model
North-West Regional Model
North Central Regional Model
92
93
94
Eastern Hilly Regional Model
ANNEXURE
Survey Logsheet
Questionnaire Survey for Comprehensive Disaster Management Program

h&D&&&,Z
SURVEY LOGHEET
1. Latude:
Longitude:
2. mvj bst
4. bvgt
3. ZvwiLt
5. cyil/gwnjv
6. Rwic vbi wVKvbv (BDwbqb/DcRjv/Rjv)t

7. eqmt
8. ckvt
9. ebvv nqt 1/2/3/4/5 eQi cici
10. ebvi Z_i QKt
gvbwP ebvi cvwbi

MfxiZv
(Fo/F1/F2/F3/F4)
ebvi cvwbi mevwaK MfxiZv/mgqKvj
eQi
evwoi cvk 1 wKwg `~iZi Kwl RwgZ
gvm
evwoi wfUvq
(dzU/mgq)
evwoi DVvb
(dzU/mgq)
evwoi cvk gvV

(dzU/mgq)
evwoi wfUvq
Di (dzU/mgq) `wb (dzU/mgq) c~e (dzU/mgq) cwg (dzU/mgq)
2007
2004
1998
1988
^vfvweK
ebv
get ...................................................................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................................................
mvfqii bvg I ^vi
Questionnaire Survey for Comprehensive Disaster Management Program

h&D&&&,Z
SURVEY LOGHEET
99
ANNEXURE
Comments & Responses

(Comments and responses
from the validation workshop
on draft final report)
1. Dr. Ainun Nishat, Vice Chancellor, BRAC University

Sl No.
Comments
Responses
1.
The map needed to be produced in Bangla for community.
It is a very good suggeson and essenal to prepare it. Considerable

numbers of maps were produced for ood inundaon, storm surge
inundaon and salinity distribuon in English and it took quite long
me to produce all of those maps. It will take almost the same me to
produce all of the maps in Bangla. CDMP can take over the task to
produce these maps in Bangla.
2.
The maps produced need to be validated in eld with community.
Agreed and already validated through a number of eld visits.
3.
Explanaon of using specic models should be presented.
Explained in the previous secon.
4.
Literature review of related works need to be included.
Agreed.
5.
Any available informaon on SLR in Bangladesh needs to be
Agreed.
included.
6.
Comparison of model outputs with some earlier works.
It has done in the KJDRP area.
7.
Such consultaon workshop should be organized at the beginning
Agreed.
of the study as well.

8.
Menon if ood embankments are considered or not in
Flood embankment is considered.
predicng ood inundaon maps.

9.
Raonale of selecng study areas for ood inundaon should be

explained.
Agreed.
10.
The study would serve as baseline for any future studies.
Agreed.
11.
Should produce global level publicaon based on the study
Agreed.
ndings.
2. Tarik-ul Islam, Assistant Country Director, UNDP

Sl No.
Responses
Comments
1.
Share the full report with the stakeholders, rather than the
summary.
Agreed.
2.
The study is strategically important for the policy makers, planning

people as well useful for the community.
Agreed.
3.
Too many maps will confuse community, provide them with the
important one (i.e., maximum risk level); translate the maps in
Bangla.
Agreed.
4.
Explain the reason behind selecng the ood-prone districts.
The districts for ood mapping have been selected in

consultaon with ocials of CDMP. The districts other than
ood-prone are not likely to be aected by high ood inundaon
in the changing climate.
5.
Need to be careful about predicons based on the IPCC, they

might lead to expensive development.
It is important to have local projecon and to invesgate risk to

moderate and high emission scenarios.
6.
Need claricaon on selecon of models, provide comparison

with other available ones.
These models have been tested in the rivers and Bay of Bengal for
the last twenty years and applied in many projects.
7.
The reports lack long-term strategy (such as update

frequency).
The TOR does not spulate to do the long-term strategy.
3. Md. Mahfuzur Rahman, Project Director, CDSP and Superintending Engineer, BWDB
Sl No.
Comments
Responses
1.
Value for 2080?
10% wind speed is selected for the year 2050. According to the
predicon of IPCC 10% and 20% increase of wind speed may occur
due to increase of 20C and 40C temperature. In this study 20C
increase of temperature was elected for the year 2050. The value of
percentage increase.
2.
Is it possible to use trend of wind speed increase using our cyclone
Cyclone is a discrete event and it is dicult to go for any frequency

analysis with this kind of discrete data. Even if we nd the increase
of wind speed but we cant extrapolate it for 2050 since future
driving forces and temperature will be dierent. That is why
predicons from IPCC is considered.
data instead of IPCC.
3.
The coastal area is protected with polders, so inundaon will be

aer overtopping or by breach of embankment.
Coastal polders have already been incorporated in the costal model

but breach of embankment was not incorporated in the model due
to the limitaon of model.
4.
Incremental area of salinity need to be elaborated.
Agreed.
5.
The user of the nding will be all sectors rather than re-design of
embankment as stated in the report.
Agreed.
6.
Need to prepare a naonal baseline with downscaling of IPCC
Agreed.
predicons.
4. Md. Sabbir Mostafa Khan, Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET
Sl No.
Comments
Responses
1.
Could have a note on CRA in the report.
2.
In working with synthec cyclone model, high de - low de need
to be considered with care.
Agreed both low de and high de were considered

in the study.
3.
Use of storm surge inundaon would be beer instead of storm
Agreed.
surge height.
4.
Cauon should be made in considering return period of cyclone.
Agreed. Inundaon risk map have been prepared and no stascal

analysis was carried out.
5.
Eect of El-Nino and La-Nina was menoned in the report.
We are in agreement to invesgate this issue and in future

study needs to be designed on this basis...
6.
The informaon in table at page 16 need to be checked.
7.
Use of representave year (page 52) should be re-considered.
Checked and corrected.

It is not a representave year, rather a ood event
with a frequency of occurance.
5. Mr. Saiful Alam, Principal Scientic Officer Water Resources, WARPO

Sl No.
Responses
Comments
1.
Some of the data used in the report are not updated.
Secondary data was used for all kind of analysis under this study and
recent hydrometric, salinity and ow data were used, but some
cross-secon are few years old and recent data are not available.
2.
The selecon of base year of 5, 10, 20 and 50 years return period as

agreed in the ToR was not followed; instead only 10 and 20 years
return period was considered, need raonale.
The ood events and return period have been selected in

consultaon with the ocials of CDMP.
3.
No calibraon and validaon of basin model, surge, salinity model

and hydrodynamic model of other regions has been incorporated in
the report.
All the models were calibrated and validated for several years in
Instute of Water Modelling. Some sample plots have been
incorporated in the report.
4.
Presentaon of the maps could be more explicable with beer color

scheme.
Agreed.
6. Open discussion
Sl No.
Responses
Comments
1.
Duraon of inundaon should be provided.
Agreed and incorporated.
2.
The study ndings need to be made accessible to all stakeholders.
Agreed.
3.
Only surface water salinity map is developed, no map for ground

water and soil salinity.
There was no provision for ground water salinity and soil salinity in
the Terms of Reference, but these can be done considering the
ground water salinity and soil salinity through further study.
4.
The maps need to be made user-friendly, useable by local

community.
Agreed.
5.
Need study on impact of surface water salinity on soil salinity.
It is an excellent suggeson and needs urgent aenon of CDMP.
6.
Salinity data should be of mouza-level rather than union-level.
We are providing in UZ.
7.
Compare the maps prepared by model with remote sensing maps.
This is no doubt an excellent validaon. Calibraon also made

using satellite images on ood extent.
8.
Development of models based on extreme condions may lead to

excessive scenario with higher development cost, use of average
condion along with extreme one should be used.
Agreed.
6. Open discussion
Sl No.
Comments
9.
The maps could be used for awareness purpose in the community

level.
Responses
10.
Evaporaon, sunshine data should be considered for salinity model.
Evaporaon data was already used in the models. Evaporaon has

eect on water salinity, but there is no direct formulaon to assess
the eect of sunshine on water quality.
11.
Use of higher resoluon model would produce beer result.
Agreed but for union-level output exisng grid size is OK.
12.
There is need for guideline for interpretaon of the maps.
Agreed.
13.
The study should contain limitaons of predicon.
Agreed and incorporated the methodology of interpolaon.
14.
The ndings of the study need wider disseminaon.
Agreed.
15.
There is need for naonal Sea Level Rise data for beer predicon of
future inundaon.
Agreed.
16.
It would be beer if we have seasonal salinity scenarios for each

union.
We have given monthly variaon of salinity for each upazila from

February to May. However, it will be very useful if unionwise
seasonal salinity can be prepared, which may be done in future.
17.
Salinity situaon of the Sunderbans should be highlighted.
Agreed.
18.
Stakeholders consultaons during the study period might be helpful

in such studies.
Agreed and have already done.
19.
Feedback and regular update of the results of this study should

connue.
Agreed.
20.
The presentaons of the maps need to be more user-friendly.
Agreed.
21.
Limitaons and assumpons could be embedded in the maps.
These limitaons are given in the report.
22.
There is a demand for producing the maps in an ATLAS format.
This is a very good suggeson. CDMP can take over it in

future studies.
Agreed.

Study Report - Local Level Hazard Maps For Flood, Storm Surge & Salinity - 2013

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Study Report - Local Level Hazard Maps For Flood, Storm Surge & Salinity - 2013

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Local Level

First Published in June 2013

Mr. S. M. Shah Newaz

Md. Mobassarul Hassan

Md. Yusuf Mamun

Ms. Morsheda Begum

Md. Abu Sayeed

Mohammad Abdul Qayyum

Salinity Zoning Map for Cluster Unions

Storm Surge Inundation

Salinity Maps of the Coastal Area

Benet of Inundation Hazard Maps

1.2 Study Area

Figure 1.1: Study area (colored shows the selected districts)

1.3 Objectives, Outcomes and Scope of Works

Scope of the Study

1.4 Approach and Methodology

Selection of Climate Change Scenarios

Storm Surge Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

Flood Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

Salinity Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

1.5 Limitation of the Study

Data Collection, Screening and Analysis

Water level data

Maximum Salinity (ppt)

Map Showing Yearly Maximum Salinity (ppt) (2010-2011)

Selection of Climate Change Scenarios for Cyclone, Flood and Salinity

Sea Level Rise:

Sea level (m)

Mas Change (Gt)

Total Mes Asea (10 km )

2007 Extreme Summer Melt

Storm Surge Inundation Hazard Maps for Cluster of Unions

Figure 4.1: Coastal districts

4.2 Simulations of historical storm surges

Figure 4.2: Simulated cyclone tracks

Figure 4.3: Nested bathymetry of Bay of Bengal Model

Topographic Data (Digital Elevation Model)

Calibration and validation

4.3.2 Cyclone model

4.3.3 Storm surge model

4.4 Preparation of Storm Surge Inundation Hazard Maps

4.4.2 Inundation Hazard Maps for Climate Change Condition

Inundated area with inundaon depth of 1 m

South West South East Eastern Hill Total Region

Figure 4.13: Regionwise inundated area for more than 1m depth

Preparation of Flood Depth Map for Cluster of Unions

5.1 Updating and validation of existing ood models

Figure 5.2: The GBM Basin Model

5.1.2 Regional River Models

Figure 5.6: Boundary of six regional models

5.1.3 Bay of Bengal Model

Initial conditions for ood model

5.2 Frequency analysis on river ow and water level at key locations

reduced variate observed frequencies

reduced variate observed frequencies

lower Confindence limit data

Figure 5.7: Log

Log-Normal Distribution mx=1.06 5x=0.17 X0=11.18 95% Confidence interval

5.3 Collection of Field Information on Past Severe Flood

5.4 Preparation of ood zoning maps

5.4.1 Flood maps for 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007

Figure 5.10: Flood map of Barahar Union under Ullahpara Upazila