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Laboratory of Epidemiological Methods and Biostatistics, Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health,
University of Padova, Italy, 2Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, University of Padova, Italy,
3
ZETA Research Ltd, Trieste, Italy, and 4Department of Public Health and Microbiology, University of Torino, Italy
Abstract
The aim of the present study is to understand how different definitions of snacking influence the estimated probability of obesity
in the presence of concurrent risk factors. Factors influencing obesity were evaluated by reviewing the relevant literature through
a PUBMED search. Six different modalities to define snack consumption were identified. A Bayesian network model in which
nodes represent the variables that the retrieved studies indicate as affecting the probability of obesity was implemented and used
to estimate the individual risk of developing obesity taking into account the concurrent effect of the considered risk factors. For a
subject with a given profile of factors, the probability of obesity varies according to the chosen definition of snacking, up to
maximum of 70%. The variability of the probability of obesity attributable to the chosen definition of snacking is very high and
may threaten any conclusion about the effect of snacking, which may be related to the specific definitions adopted in the study.
Introduction
Research on the determinants of obesity is fraught with
controversial issues, mostly because it is well recognized
as being a multi-factorial condition, resulting from an
imbalance between energy intake and expenditure.
In fact, genetic, cultural, socioeconomic, behavioral
and situational factors all play a role in eating and
weight control (Bray and Champagne 2005).
A number of studies examined the relationship
between obesity and diet in children, and, among
dietary patterns, snacks received great attention:
indeed, commercially available snack foods are, on
average, considerably more energetically dense than
most foods in the diet. Thus, snacks act with respect to
the average of the overall diet as major contributors to
calorie and saturated fat intake (Whybrow et al. 2007).
However, even if the percentage of energy from dietary
fat is widely believed to be an important determinant
of body fat accumulation, the existence of causal
relationships between single nutrients or foods and
obesity is controversial: prospective cohort studies
Correspondence: Prof. Dario Gregori, Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Via Loredan 18, 35151 Padova, Italy. Tel: 39
49 8275384. Fax: 39 2 700445089. E-mail: dario.gregori@unipd.it
ISSN 0963-7486 print/ISSN 1465-3478 online q 2011 Informa UK, Ltd.
DOI: 10.3109/09637486.2010.530597
271
Category
Gender (Gender)
Male
Female
Yes
No
Underweight/normal
Overweight/obese
Urban
Suburban
Rural
Yes
No
Yes
No
Primary
Secondary
University
Primary
Secondary
University
Underweight/normal
Overweight/obese
Underweight/normal
Overweight/obese
Yes
No
criteria: (I) the type of the snack, or (II) the time when
the snack was eaten. In the first case, a snack consumer
could be a subject eating (IA) sweet snack, (IB) savory
snack or (IC) generic snack. According to the second
criterion, the consumer of the snack could be a subject
eating food (IIA) in the morning, (IIB) in the
afternoon or (IIC) between meals. Therefore, overall
six different modalities to define snack consumption
were identified.
Statistical analysis
Bayesian network. A BN is a graphical model
(Jensen 2001) that represents the joint probability
distributions over a set of random variables. It consists
of a graphical structure, probability tables and an
inference algorithm. The graphical structure is a series
of nodes representing variables and connected by
arrows, forming a graph that has no cycles. Arcs
encode the conditional dependence relationships
among variables. The direction of each arc indicates
a possible causal relationship between the nodes it
joins. Each arc implies a state of conditional
dependence; that is, linked nodes directly influence
each other, possibly in the form of a causal
relationship between the joined nodes. The absence
of an arc represents conditional independence. Each
node is a data structure that contains an enumeration
of possible values it can assume (states) and is
associated with a probability table that quantifies the
probability of each state depending on the values of the
incoming nodes.
Basically, there are three ways to build a BN: both
the structure and the probability tables can be
Results
The BN based on the data extracted from the 228
papers is presented in Figure 1. All factors are strictly
inter-correlated except for mothers and fathers
weights, which act as independent factors.
The marginal probability of obesity (i.e. averaging
over the observed distribution of the other risk factors)
is presented in Table II. Snacking and television
viewing are the factors that, assuming all of the other
factors are equally distributed among subjects, are the
most relevant, being associated with a two-fold greater
probability of obesity as compared with the other risk
factors.
In Table III, the probability of obesity is estimated
for a set of covariates combinations: in this analysis,
the concurrent effect of all factors is taken into
account, and the effect of the different definitions of
snacking is presented.
P_edu
PA
M_edu
Smoker
PC
Residence
P_obes
Gender
Obesity
TV
M_obese
Snack
Figure 1. Bayesian network structure. Labeled rectangles represent nodes, and arrows represent conditional dependence relationships.
17.75
3.54
16.85
18.29
13.46
3.13
15.79
12.62
13.1
3.72
12.29
15.56
9.64
3.36
11.48
11.18
11.38
6.36
13.52
11.99
12
4.91
16.35
10.98
12.25
6.2
14.9
13.91
11.46
4.62
12.84
12.62
12.77
6.65
14.27
14.8
12.88
7.45
13.4
11.37
10.48
4.86
15.64
15.71
13.06
4.89
15.06
13.3
Normal
Normal
Normal
Obese
Normal
Normal
Obese
Normal
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Snack IIA
Snack IC
Snack IB
Snack IA
Maternal weight status
Smoker
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Female
Male
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Snack
Discussion
Using PC
12.63 (12.1313.31)
12.85 (12.5913.32)
13.13 (12.9413.38)
13.63 (13.1814.08)
12.18 (11.6412.73)
14.03 (13.2614.8)
TV viewing
(6.296.89)
(7.518.16)
(4.364.84)
(3.624.07)
(6.837.48)
Physical activity
6.59
7.84
4.61
3.84
7.15
P (Obesity) (%)
4.61 (4.334.86)
Gender
9.12 (8.759.5)
4.64 (4.394.89)
Table III. Concurrent effects of different risk factors on estimated probability of obesity according to some randomly constructed subject profiles.
Snack IIB
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Snack IIC
273
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