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MR4 - PES January 2010 MR On Beloved Political Leader (FINAL)
MR4 - PES January 2010 MR On Beloved Political Leader (FINAL)
MEDIA RELEASE
(February 12, 2010)
To keep media and the general public current on its latest survey findings, Pulse
Asia is issuing this media release on "The Filipinos' Most Loved Political Leader." The
findings are from Pulse Asia's January 2010 Pre-election Survey.
Two probes were used in identifying the survey respondents' most loved Filipino
political leader. The first inquired into whether any national political leader ever gained
their love or affection (Sa mga lider o pulitiko ng ating bansa, maging nuong nakaraang
panahon o sa kasalukuyan, mayruon po bang mga napamahal sa inyo?Among the
leaders or politicians in our country, whether in the past or present, are there any that
gained your love/affection?). Among those replying in the positive, a follow-up probe
singled out the most loved of these national political leaders (Sino po ang lider o
pulitikong pinakamamahal ninyo buhay pa man ngayon o patay na? Magbigay lamang
ng isang sagot. Who is the leader or politician that you love most, whether now dead or
still alive? Give only one answer.).
The respondents views on these two concerns are linked in this media release to
their voting preferences for selected presidential, vice presidential and senatorial
candidates.
Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years
old and above, this nationwide survey has a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence
level. At the same level of confidence, subnational estimates for the geographic areas
covered in the survey have the following error margins: ± 6% for Metro Manila, ±4% for
the rest of Luzon and ±5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field
interviews for this project were conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010. (Those interested
in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design
may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested
questions actually used.)
Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and
conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In
keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group
influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia conducted this survey on its own without
any party singularly commissioning the research effort.
For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse
Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief
Research Fellow at 09189436816.
2
Pulse Asia’s January 2010 Pre-Election Survey
Most Beloved National Leader or Politician
January 22 – 26, 2010
A majority of the country's registered voters (52%) professes love for at least one of
the nation's numerous political leaders; close to half (48%), on the other hand, are
unable to find any national leader or politician worth loving.
Contrary to the conventional wisdom that Metro Manilans are generally more
critical and difficult to please in matters political, they (66%) – more than those from
other major geographic areas and regions – apparently find it easier to be enamoured with
national political leaders. The best-off socioeconomic class ABC (61%) and the best-
educated college graduates (66%) – most being Metro Manila residents – also lead their
respective demographic groups in acknowledging their love for a national leader or
politician. (See Table 1)
In contrast, those respondents who are among the nation's poorest (Class E, 47%),
live in the rural areas (48%), have at best an elementary education (44%), the youngest
(18 to 24 years old, 41%) and the Cebuanos (39%) are least susceptible to falling in love
with the nation's leaders and politicians. On account of their rather small numbers among
those actually sampled and thus reflecting statistically weak, indicative proportions at
best, Iglesia ni Cristo members, Ilocanos, Ilonggos and Pangasinenses find it easier to
love a political leader. More respondents from these groups (from 60% to 71%) admit to
having loved or loving a national leader or politician. The Warays are their very foil, with
no more than 44% saying they love or had loved such a person; even more revealing is
the small proportion of Muslims (35%) able to locate any political leader worth loving.
(See Table 1)
As for those spurning love for anyone among the nation's political leaders,
majorities exist in the country's rural areas (52%), the Visayas (52%), Mindanao (57%)1,
the poorest class E (53%), the youngest (18 to 24 years old, 59%), those with barely an
elementary school diploma (56%) and those with some high school education (53%).
(See Table 1)
Gender does not seem to play a role in the survey respondents' ability or inability
to find a lovable political leader. For both males and females nationwide, the relevant
figures closely approximate each other. (See Table 1)
Among the top five most-loved choices, former President Cory Aquino (35%) leads
with a wide margin over former President Ferdinand Marcos (15%), former
President Joseph Estrada (13%), former Senator Benigno Aquino, Jr. (8%) and
former President Ramon Magsaysay (7%). Of the top fifteen figures cited by
respondents as their most-loved national leader or politician, a bias is noticeable for
those who died in the last three decades or earlier.
1
In Regions 10 and CARAGA, seven out of ten (71%) actually say no one is worth loving among the
nation's leaders or politicians.
3
Of the top fifteen personalities with at least a rounded one percent (1%)
endorsement as the respondents' most beloved national figures, eight are deceased (Cory
Aquino, Ferdinand Marcos, Ninoy Aquino, Ramon Magsaysay, Fernando Poe, Jr.,
Diosdado Macapagal, Raul Roco and Jose Rizal). Four are currently vying for the
presidency or the vice-presidency (former President Estrada, 13%, Senator Manny Villar,
5%, Senator Loren Legarda, 1% and Senator Mar Roxas, 1%), two are living presidents
(President Gloria Arroyo, 2% and former President Fidel Ramos, 1%) and one is a
relatively young senator who aborted a 2010 presidential campaign (Senator Chiz
Escudero, 1%). (See Table 2.)
Among those acknowledging love for any political leader (52%), former President
Cory Aquino – the probe's highest-rating person -- is identified by an impressive 35% as
their most beloved; this translates into 18% of all those surveyed, still far short of a
majority. The rest, the great majority of those surveyed (82%), have either other persons
or no one in mind for this singular honor. Nevertheless, the Aquino figures are still the
most remarkable in this survey, with former President Marcos' own numbers (15% of
52% or 8% of all those surveyed) being less than half that of his sworn nemesis. (See
Table 2.)
Former President Cory leads all other contenders for being most loved as a
national leader or politician. In practically all geographic areas, regions and socio-
demographic variables, her margin over other personalities are nearly all double-digit,
indicative of her great stature in the eyes of numerous Filipinos. (See Table 2.)
Except for Estrada (13%), Villar (5%), Legarda (1%) and Roxas (1%), no current
candidate for the presidency, vice-presidency or the Senate is identified by even half of
one percent (0.5%) of those surveyed as their most beloved national leader or politician.
Even senatorial wannabes currently doing well in the coming May 2010 elections -- the
younger politicians (Senators Jinggoy Estrada, Ramon "Bong" Revilla and Governor
Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.) as well as their more senior, veteran counterparts (Senators Juan
Ponce Enrile and Miriam Defensor-Santiago and former Senators Franklin Drilon, Ralph
Recto and Sergio Osmena III) -- fail to hurdle even this low (0.5%) affective threshold.
(See Table 2)
Historical figures lack centrality among survey respondents asked to name their
most beloved national leader or politician. Jose P. Rizal barely gets noticed with only a
rounded one percent of those surveyed naming him their most loved in this probe.
Manuel L. Quezon and Sergio Osmena, Sr. get even less public endorsement than Rizal
while Andres Bonifacio, Emilio Aguinaldo, Apolinario Mabini and Jose P. Laurel,
among other heroic figures, do not seem to register at all as Filipino leaders or politicians
deserving much love.
4
In defining their May 2010 electoral choices, love for a Filipino national leader or
politician understandably influences the country's voters; however, as a critical
political resource, love also appears to reflect fickleness in some specific cases
Among those considering former President Aquino (35%) as their most beloved
national political leader, half (50%) now express a presidential vote preference for her
son Senator Noynoy Aquino in the coming May 2010 elections; however among the
same President Aquino-lovers, one third (33%) opt for Senator Villar as their presidential
choice. For those viewing former President Estrada as their most beloved political leader
(13%), close to half (46%) also faithfully see him as their presidential choice for May
2010; however, 29% prefer Senator Villar and 19% say Senator Aquino for the
presidency. (See Table 3)
Senator Villar appears to enjoy the most reliable electoral capital among those
seeing him as their most beloved political leader. An impressive 92% among this
relatively small group (5%) group say yes to his presidential bid, with only a tiny fraction
(2% to 3%) preferring other presidentiables. Even more impressively, those who are
politically enamoured with Brother Eddie Villanueva (an even smaller group that is less
than 0.5%), deliver a 100% presidential voting preference and refuse to consider any
other person as a worthy presidential suitor.
Considerations other than love probably also drive Filipinos professing their
greatest love for either Senator Loren Legarda or Senator Mar Roxas to support someone
other than their beloved's tandemned principal or presidential standard bearer. Five out
of ten (53%) of Senator Legarda's professed political lovers support Senator Aquino for
the presidency; slightly less than five out of ten (47%) declare for her official presidential
running mate Senator Villar. Similarly, in the case of Senator Roxas' politically amorous
constituency, about four in ten (39%) extend support for his presidential running mate,
Senator Aquino; however, a bigger number among them (48%) turn around to support
Senator Villar and yet another 13% decide to pick up Brother Villanueva for the
presidency.
5
Table 1
EVER LOVED A FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(Row Percent)
page 1 of 2
(Estimated
Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%
Population
Demographic variables Percentage) YES NONE
NCR (12%) 66 34
Balance Luzon (44%) 57 43
Northern/Central Luzon (22%) 61 39
Southern Luzon (22%) 54 46
Visayas (20%) 48 52
Western Visayas (8%) 59 41
Central Visayas (8%) 44 56
Eastern Visayas (5%) 36 64
Mindanao (24%) 39 61
Regions 9,12 and ARMM (11%) 43 57
Regions 10 and CARAGA (7%) 29 71
Region 11 (5%) 44 56
Male (50%) 53 47
Female (50%) 51 49
Q95. Sa mga lider o pulitiko ng ating bansa, maging noong nakaraang panahon o sa kasalukuyan,
mayroon po bang mga napamahal sa inyo?
6
Table 1
EVER LOVED A FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(Row Percent)
page 2 of 2
(Estimated
Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%
Population
Demographic variables Percentage) YES NONE
Tagalog (35%) 58 42
Cebuano (24%) 39 61
Kapampangan (8%) 56 44
Ilonggo (7%) 61 39
Ilocano (4%) 78 22
Bicolano (4%) 56 44
Waray (3%) 44 56
Pangasinense (2%) 60 40
Others (13%) 43 57
Q95. Sa mga lider o pulitiko ng ating bansa, maging noong nakaraang panahon o sa kasalukuyan,
mayroon po bang mga napamahal sa inyo?
7
Table 2
MOST BELOVED FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN*
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)
CORY AQUINO 35 29 31 50 36 32 37 34
FERDINAND MARCOS 15 24 19 6 4 19 15 13
JOSEPH EJERCITO ESTRADA 13 11 15 6 17 13 10 18
NINOY AQUINO 8 8 9 9 8 6 8 9
RAMON MAGSAYSAY 7 7 7 10 2 10 7 5
MANNY VILLAR 5 2 3 4 13 1 5 7
GLORIA ARROYO 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2
FERNANDO POE, JR. 2 2 1 2 4 0 2 2
DIOSDADO MACAPAGAL 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 0
CHIZ ESCUDERO 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0
FIDEL RAMOS 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 1
RAUL ROCO 1 2 1 0 0 4 1 0
JOSE RIZAL 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0
LOREN LEGARDA 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
MAR ROXAS 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 0
Q96. Sino po ang lider o pulitikong pinakamamahal ninyo buhay pa man ngayon o patay na. Magbigay lamang ng isang sagot.
*Note: National leaders and politicians with at least a rounded one percent (1%) of the survey respondents identifying them as their most beloved national leader or politician.
8
Table 3
FIRST CHOICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE by MOST BELOVED FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(Row Percent)
page 1 of 3
VILLANUEVA
MADRIGAL
TEODORO
GORDON
ESTRADA
AQUINO
ACOSTA
VILLAR
NONE
LOVED FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN (37%) (35%) (12%) (5%) (2%) (1%) (0.5%) (0.2%) (6%)
9
Table 3
FIRST CHOICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE by MOST BELOVED FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(Row Percent)
page 2 of 3
VILLANUEVA
MADRIGAL
TEODORO
GORDON
ESTRADA
AQUINO
ACOSTA
VILLAR
NONE
LOVED FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN (37%) (35%) (12%) (5%) (2%) (1%) (0.5%) (0.2%) (6%)
10
Table 3
FIRST CHOICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE by MOST BELOVED FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(Row Percent)
page 3 of 3
VILLANUEVA
MADRIGAL
TEODORO
GORDON
ESTRADA
AQUINO
ACOSTA
VILLAR
NONE
LOVED FILIPINO LEADER OR POLITICIAN (37%) (35%) (12%) (5%) (2%) (1%) (0.5%) (0.2%) (6%)
11