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SPACE WEATHER
Its impact on Earth and
implications for business
about lloyds
Lloyds is the worlds leading specialist insurance market, conducting business in over 200 countries and territories
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acknowledgements
Lead author: Mike Hapgood.
Contributing author: Alan Thomson, British Geological Survey
We would like to thank the following peer reviewers and commentators: David Wade, Robin Gubby (Atrium),
Richard Horne (British Antarctic Survey), Duncan Smith, Keith Ryden (Qinetiq), Pedro Sousa (Holos) and Ana Borges (MDS).
Briefing
SPACE WEATHER
Its impact on Earth and
implications for business
02
Foreword
03
Executive summary
05
Introduction
06
10
Impact on business
20
Business responses
26
Conclusions
foreword
From the Performance Management Director, Lloyds
science fiction, it is an
impact on earth.
It is impossible to say for sure what the impact of the
Nor is space weather a problem that we can consign
Tom Bolt
Lloyds
Space weather describes disturbances caused by solar activity that occurs in near earth-Earth space.
National Academy of Sciences Severe Space Weather Events - Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
executive summary
1. Space weather describes events that happen in space,
which can disrupt modern technologies
Like weather on the Earth, Space weather comes in different forms and different strengths. However, space weather
is governed by an 11-year solar cycle that allows us to predict, at some level, when effects are likely to be most severe.
This period is called solar maximum and is next likely to occur between 2012 and 2015.
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
INTRODUCTION
Space weather describes disturbances that occur
2006 and 2010 there has been the lowest level of space
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
part 1
THE SCIENCE OF
SPACE WEATHER
Solar flares are spectacular explosions on the Suns surface caused
by the release of magnetic energy in the solar atmosphere.
from the polar regions of the Sun and from outside the
number of solutions.
in Figure 1.
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
Solar Max:
magnetic & radiation storms
200
Solar Min:
peak cosmic ray risk
Solar Decline:
radiation belts stronger
100
50
Current min
deepest
since 1913
0
1960
1980
1970
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
Magnetic storms
500
400
350
300
aaMAX
Sunspot number
150
250
200
150
100
50
0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Year
delayed, and this delay varies with the density along the
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
electron-volts or more.
at very high energies (see Box 1). These are a major threat
to spacecraft as they can disrupt and damage electronics
20
18
16
14
12
10
0
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
the Sun is much faster than the wind from its equatorial
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
fast solar wind from the poles often reaches the Earth.
At the same time the fluxes of energetic electrons in
Solar flares
over $100m.
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
part 2
IMPACT ON
BUSINESS
Space radiation is a hazard not only to the operation of modern
aircraft but also to the health of aircrew and passengers.
A) Aviation
Communications
10
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
costs: for example, extra fuel use, extra flying hours for
of HF and satcom.
Washington
Chicago
Beijing
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Key
Devid
Nikin
Aberi
Ramel
Orvit
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
11
Navigation
precision landings.
then radio bursts have been rare, due to the long solar
radiation belt.
Radiation hazards
12
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
engineering staff.
25
and this will reduce the capacity of the grid - and perhaps
12
26
12-16 months.
27
fuel and staff time when flight altitude and routes are
threat and were not prepared for the speed and scale
B) Power
in the UK.32
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
13
where the risks from these currents are greatest and how
(see Box 4). The 2003 events also revealed some novel
33,34
. The loss of 14
37
39
megawatt-hour.45
40
41
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
electric pumps.
Food - electrical refrigeration is critical in ensuring
product safety in food storage and distribution.
Water - electricity is essential to the regular supply
of clean water.
Sanitation - many sewage systems require electricity
built up.
15
The longer the power supply is cut off, the more society
distribution systems.
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
15
55
weather event.
C) Transport
few metres.
as possible.
16
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
space weather.
2. Businesses using communication services have a
robust technologies.
Automotive technologies
Cars and other road vehicles contain an increasing
amount of digital electronics (for example, for engine
management) that may be disrupted by SEEs (see Box 3)
from cosmic rays and solar radiation storms. This topic
Telephones
Summary
In summary, transport businesses are exposed to an
telephone technology:
D) Communications
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
17
Internet
66
67
E) Pipelines
18
Wireless communications
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
800 miles from the oil fields of the Arctic Ocean to the
70
E) Finance
the costs that might arise from errors in the path of the
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
19
part 3
BUSINESS
RESPONSES
The ideal response to space weather risks is to build robust
systems that can operate through bad space weather conditions.
Building in protection
radiation storm.
20
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
77
78
Adapting operations
As mentioned throughout section three, an important
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
21
www.swpc.noaa.gov
www.esa-spaceweather.net/swenet
www.ips.gov.au
www.ises-spaceweather.org
www.solarmetrics.com
for Aerospace
QinetiQ Atmospheric Radiation Model
www.qarm.space.qinetiq.com
www.aurora.fmi.fi/gic_service/english/index.html
GIC Simulator*
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/se-gic-eng.php
www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/gicpublic
www.metatechcorp.com/aps/apsmain.html
www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicforecastprototype
www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/services.html
22
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/se-pip-eng.php
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
84
to deliver them.
Fixing problems
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
23
in transport businesses and in sectors that employ just-intime models for the delivery of products.
Assessment of impact
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
Opportunities
customer needs:
Planning for the use and replacement of assets.
Potential customers were willing to pay for space
weather services that convert scientific data into forms
that are meaningful to operations staff with a minimum
of additional training. For example, a simple index
indicating the level of threat.
competitive advantage.
Decisions around the location of activities in terms
of magnetic latitude.
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
25
conclusions
There are a wide range of space weather phenomena
business activities.
road vehicles.
level data.
business activities:
26
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
references
Under normal conditions the solar wind passing the Earth contains only a few particles in each cubic centimetre.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/aastar.html
Some scientists have suggested that these ice core signatures could arise from other natural sources, but this would
require the other possible sources to have occurred at the same time as those well-documented space weather events,
eg in 1859 and 1946.
Hey, J.S. Solar radiations in the 46 metre radio wavelength band, Nature 157, 47-48, 1946.
http://www.intelsat.com/
http://www.ses.com/
For discussion of the possible space weather effects on Galaxy-15 see the US Naval Research Laboratory report on http://
www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/75-10r/
http://www.spacenews.com/satellite_telecom/100722-orbitals-revenue-rises-earnings-fall.html
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006SW000262
10
http://www.intelsat.com/resources/tech-talk/solar-weather.asp
11
http://www.bu.edu/cism/
12
The Rules of the Air as established by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.
13
Service Assessment: Intense Space Weather Storms October 19 November 07, 2003, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Services/SWstorms_assessment.pdf
14
For example, North Atlantic MNPS Airspace Operations Manual, European and North Atlantic Office of ICAO
15
It is reported that 97% of HF Data Link messages were delivered, see http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005RS003404
16
Severe Space Weather EventsUnderstanding Societal and Economic Impacts, Report of NRC Workshop, ISBN: 0-30912770-X, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html
17
http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/satellites/pcw/overview.asp
18
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008RS004039
19
http://www.newscientist.com/blog/technology/2008/03/do-we-need-cosmic-ray-alerts-for.html
20
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7335322.stm
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
27
21
ATSB Transport Safety Report, Aviation Occurrence Investigation AO-2008-070 Interim Factual No 2, http://www.atsb.gov.
au/media/1363394/ao2008070_ifr_2.pdf
22
23
http://www.isis.stfc.ac.uk/instruments/Chipir/
24
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0021-9169(56)90135-0
25
EU Directive 96/29/EURATOM
26
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/research/med_humanfacs/aeromedical/radiobiology/solarradiation/
27
28
29
http://www.zurich.com/NR/rdonlyres/E7A8BC6C-86D9-4C1A-ABFC-F6213EB23D73/0/SolarStorms.pdf
30
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(02)00128-1
31
http://www.solarstorms.org/
32
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(02)00036-6
33
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2009.11.023
34
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4004.2010.51523.x
35
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/opinion/16joseph.html?_r=2&ref=todayspaper
36
Gaunt, C. T., and G. Coetzee, Transformer failure in regions incorrectly considered to have low GIC-risk, paper presented at
Power Tech 2007, Inst. of Electr. and Electron. Eng., Lausanne, July 2007.
28
37
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008SW000417
38
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008SW000439
39
40
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005SW000156
41
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4004.2010.51525.x
42
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2005.08.055
43
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007SW000350
44
http://www.pjm.com/about-pjm.aspx
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
45
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003SW000005
46
47
48
http://www.eissummit.com
49
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201011/ldhansrd/text/101011w0001.htm#10101110000395
50
http://tinyurl.com/28sdh9c
51
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2010.02.007
52
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/
53
Unless those retail outlets have back-up power systems, like those that protect the central servers operated by banks
54
55
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=111_cong_bills&docid=f:h5026ih.txt.pdf
56
57
http://www.loran.org/about.html
58
http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html
59
http://www.ann-geophys.net/27/1775/2009/
60
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2010.05.017
61
ETCS development is led by the European Rail Agency http://www.era.europa.eu/. ETCS use extends beyond Europe,
notably to China.
62
http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/projectview.aspx?key=49236
63
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900035
64
Mobile phone technology divides the geographic coverage of every network into cells. Each cell is operated by one base
station. Calls must continue smoothly as phones move between cells.
65
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/GL016i010p01145
66
It is sometimes stated in popular works on space weather that the internet needs accurate time-stamping to operate
correctly. However, there is no evidence to support this view.
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
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67
68
Radio links to control electrically operated systems; for example, linking sensors such as thermostats and smoke
detectors to system controls without the need for installing control cables (thereby reducing installation costs).
69
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001RS002481
70
71
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009SW000553
72
http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/8.72.htmlsubj2#subj2
73
74
75
http://www.esa-spaceweather.net/spweather/workshops/proceedings_w2/doc/gic.pdf
76
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/08/24/49316/rad-hard-chips-the-next-generation.htm
77
GNSS and Ionospheric Scintillation, How to Survive the Next Solar Maximum http://www.insidegnss.com/auto/julyaug09kintner.pdf
30
78
http://www.optisynx.com/OptiSynxArticleForWirelessBusinessReviewV3.pdf
79
http://www.ips.gov.au/Products_and_Services/1/1
80
http://www.jmg-associates-ltd.com/
81
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/enroute/oceanic/cross_polar/
82
83
84
http://www.esa.int/esaMI/SSA/index.html
85
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/services.html
86
The term blackstart is widely used to describe restart of a complete power grid
87
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h5026/show
88
http://www.space-data.org/sda/
89
http://tinyurl.com/34ndlac
90
http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/gsp/completed/C18459ExS.pdf
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
useful contacts
UK Space Agency
www.stfc.ac.uk/RALSpace
www.ukspaceagency.bis.gov.uk
Lloyds
www.lloyds.com/360
www.bgs.ac.uk
NASA
Spaceweather.com
www.nasa.gov
www.spaceweather.com
www.empcoalition.org
www.swpc.noaa.gov
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
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Lloyds
Disclaimer
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or liability for any loss to any person acting or refraining from action as the result of, but not limited to, any statement, fact, figure, expression
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32
Lloyds 360 Risk Insight Space weather: its impact on Earth and implications for business
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