THE CMO ESTIMATE

CAEL306X
STUDENT STUDY GUIDE
1. INTRODUCTION:

MARCH 2006

As a Civil Affairs (CA) noncommissioned officer (NCO) participating in the mission planning
process, you will be responsible for developing and maintaining a civil-military operations (CMO)
estimate. A properly completed and updated CMO estimate is an essential tool for CMO planners
making recommendations to the supported commander on the integration of civil affairs
operations (CAO) and CMO into the overall mission.
2. OBJECTIVES.
a. Terminal Learning Objective.
Action:
Develop a CMO Estimate.
Condition: In a classroom and field environment, given instruction on a CMO Estimate,
Worksheet, Practical Exercise (PE), and Student Study Guide.
Standard: Received a GO on the PE and completed and scored a minimum of 70 percent on
Module Examination.
b. Enabling Learning Objectives.
ELO A - Discuss the CMO Estimate
1. Define CMO Estimate.
a. The CMO estimate is the CMO planners evaluation of how CMO factors may influence
the COA the commander is considering. It supports decision making throughout an operation.
b. The CMO estimate shows how CMO can best be integrated into the overall operation.
An effective CMO planner begins to compile the CMO estimate immediately upon receipt of the
higher commands warning order, or sooner if possible.
c.

The CMO estimate is a running estimate.

(1) It is a living document that is continuously updated throughout the operations
process.
(2) This staffing tool enables planners to make assessments during preparation and
execution.
d. Planning staffs prepare written staff estimates.
e. The CMO estimate format lists aspects of the situation in a logical sequence. The CMO
planner may use it as a briefing aid to ensure that all aspects of the situation are addressed.
2. Discuss Estimate Contributions to the MDMP.
a. The CMO estimate supports decision making throughout an operation. It is particularly
helpful during the MDMP.
b. Normally, the CMO estimate provides enough information to complete the first draft of the
CMO annex and write the CMO paragraph for the base operations plan/operations order
(OPLAN/OPORD).

3. Describe Estimate Format.

a. The CMO estimate is divided into 6 paragraphs:

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)

Mission.
Situation and Considerations.
Course of Action.
Analysis of Courses of Action.
COA Comparison.
Recommendation and Conclusions.

b. Paragraphs 1 and 2 of the CMO estimate are input to the mission analysis briefing.
Paragraphs 3, 4, 5, and 6 are input to the COA decision briefing.
Enabling Learning Objective B - Discuss Aspects of Mission
1. Discuss Mission Analysis.
a. During mission analysis, the CMO planner produces paragraphs 1 and 2 of the CMO
estimate.
b. By the end of mission analysis, the CMO estimate includes the first paragraph.
c

Paragraph 2 is situation and considerations. Characteristics of the AO are considered.

d. During this time, address enemy capabilities by considering sabotage, espionage,

subversion, terrorism, and movement of dislocated civilians, and their ability to influence or
affect planned military operations and CMO.
e. When considering friendly forces, check current status of CMO resources and other
government agency
2. Discuss Mission Analysis as it Relates to Paragraph 2.
a. Look at the characteristics of the AO and the civil-military environment that may influence
friendly and adversary operations determined during intelligence preparation of the battlefield.
(1) Assets, resources, and associated capabilities that can be used in a CMO role
(paragraphs 2c[2] and [3], determined during review of available assets).
(2) Critical CMO facts and assumptions. (Facts are placed in the CMO-estimate
subparagraph hat concerns them. Assumptions are placed in subparagraph 2d.)
b. At the end of mission analysis, paragraph 2 of the CMO estimate is well-formed.
(1) As part of a running estimate, it is updated as new information is received.
(2) Normally, paragraph 2 of the CMO estimate becomes the CMO input to the mission
analysis briefing.
ELO C - Discuss Course of Action Analysis
1. Discuss paragraph 3 of the estimate format.
a. Paragraph 3 of the estimate format lists:
(1) The friendly COAs war-gamed.
(2) The evaluation criteria identified during COA analysis. All staff sections use same
evaluation criteria.
b. The CMO planner uses the information in the CMO estimate to refine CMO objectives.
c. The information developed during COA comparison and analysis forms the basis for
paragraph 3 of the CMO estimate.

2. Paragraph 4 looks at analyzing COAs. Some of the key areas here are:
a. Analyze the CMO concept of support using the CMO analysis.
b. Estimate the likelihood of accomplishing CMO objectives in the available time.
c. Identify critical subsystems within ASCOPE.

d. List essential elements of friendly information (EEFI).

ELO D - Describe COA Comparison
Discuss COA Comparison.
a. In Paragraph 5, compare the COAs in terms of the evaluation criteria.
(1) Rank-order COAs for each criterion.
(2) Visually support the comparison with a decision matrix.
b. Compare the costs of CMO in each COA based on the resources and time required to
execute them.
c.

Compare the levels of risk to COA success and friendly assets should CMO fail.

d. Summarize the advantages and disadvantages for CMO in each COA to evaluate the
chance of success in each (as taken from the CMO analysis).
e. The assistant CMO planner assesses the CMO concept of support against the CMO
measures of effectiveness (MOE) and measures of performance (MOP), as each COA is wargamed. The results of this assessment are the basis for the COA comparison recorded in
paragraph 5 of the estimate.
f. The CMO staff planner analyzes the war gaming of the CMO concepts of support and
compares the results for each COA with the others.
ELO E - Describe Recommendation and Conclusions
1. Discuss concluding the estimate format.
a. In paragraph 6, recommend a COA based on the comparison (most supportable from the
CMO perspective).
b. Present CMO issues, deficiencies, risks, and recommendations to reduce their impacts.
c. After analyzing and comparing the CMO concepts of support, the CMO staff planner
recommends the COA that the comparison shows CMO can best support.
(1) The recommendation and summarized conclusions become the final paragraph of
the CMO estimate.
(2) Once the commander approves a COA, the CMO planner prepares the CMO annex.
2. Describe Estimate Presentation.
a. Upon completion of the CMO estimate, the CMO planner will have prepared the majority
of input needed for the OPLAN/OPORD.
b. A briefing to provide CMO information to the commander and staff will normally elaborate
on the key points derived from preparing the estimate.
(1) The briefing is part of either the mission analysis briefing (paragraphs 1 and 2) or part
of the commanders decision briefing (paragraphs 3, 4, 5, and 6).
(2) The briefing itself consists of all of paragraph 1 and a summary of paragraphs 2
through 6 of the CMO estimate.
c.

The CMO estimate is a process and a product.

(1) The process calls for a disciplined approach to collecting and processing information,
and to recording the results.
(2) The CMO estimate is a living document that is continuously refined, as additional
information becomes available.
d. During peacetime, units maintain staff estimates for potential contingencies.
(1) During operations, they maintain running estimates. These estimates address
decision points, branches, and sequels.

(2) If no CMO estimate exists, the CMO planner begins developing one upon receipt of
mission and refines it throughout the operation.
(3) Estimate development never stops.
3. ASSIGNMENT. Read Study Guide & FM 3-05.40 Appendix B.
4. SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS. None.
5. ISSUED WITH THIS STUDENT STUDY GUIDE. None.
6. MATERIALS TO BE ISSUED. Worksheet and PE.