Equity / Large Cap.

/ Airlines&Ground Handling Services

08-07-15

TAV Airports Holding

MARKETPERFORM

Traffic results

(Previous: M.P)
Upside Potential
13%

TAV June, 2015 Traffic Update

Ticker

TAVs total traffic increased by 7% yoy to 9.2mn (4% yoy like-for-like

growth rate) passengers in June, 2015. Domestic traffic grew strongly by
17% (9% LfL) to 4.1mn, while international traffic was flat at 5.1mn. Note
that, TAV started to operate in Bodrum-Milas Airport Domestic Terminal in
August 2014, which is not included in 2014 total passenger numbers.

For domestic operations see our June-15 Turkey Air Traffic Report
Tunisia traffic contracted by 33% due to slowdown in tourism sector as
a result of terrorist attack. We believe that after the recent events
contraction in tourism sector will continue at least for the next two years.

Batumi and Tbilisi Airports in Georgia grew by 7% yoy.

Macedonia grew by just 4% yoy, after a strong 1Q.

TAVHL

Stock Data
Price at 07 07 2015
Target Price
Prev.Target Price
Mcap (mn)
Float Mcap (mn)
Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn)
No. of Shares Outstanding (mn)
Free Float (%)
Multiples
2015E

Total pax in Medina Airport decreased by 13% due to calendar effect.

Also the construction of the new runway and terminal building, which will
be finished in this year. Thus, there are limited slots available in Medina.

Zagreb Airport, where TAV acquired 15% stake, grew by merely 2%

and contributed 0.25mn pax in June.
TAV second quarter growth rate was 9% which is inline with our
expectation of 8% growth rate in 2015FY. However, decline in international
traffic in June and adverse events in Tunisia will continue going forward.

US$

2016E

8.00
9.34
9.34
2,903
1,177
7.7
363
40.55
2017E

12.4
3.3
9.0

8.3
2.7
7.1

7.2
2.2
6.3

1 Mn

3 Mn

12 Mn

-3
-3
-2

1
-2
4

30
4
26

P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
Price Perf. (%)

TL
21.45
24.27
24.27
7,792
3,160
20.7

TL
US$
Relative to BIST-100

Price / Relative Price

26.20

280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80

21.20
16.20
11.20
6.20

TAVHL Clo se (LHS)

07-15

04-15

01-15

10-14

07-14

04-14

01-14

10-13

07-13

04-13

01-13

1.20

Relative to BIST1 00

52 Week Range (Close TL)

16.25

23.60

Foreign Share (%)

79

78

Foreign Sh are (%)

3M Ave rage
24-0 6

10-0 6

27-0 5

12-0 5

27-0 4

10-0 4

77

Nur Karabacak
nkarabacak@isyatirim.com.tr
+90 212 350 25 34

Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report.

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TAV Airports Holding

Airport (# of passengers in mn)
Istanbul Ataturk

Ankara Esenboga

Izmir Adnan Menderes

Bodrum-Milas*

Jun-15

Jun-14

YoY (%)

6M15

6M14

YoY (%)

Domestic

1.8

1.7

6%

9.5

8.9

6%

International

3.6

3.4

5%

19.5

18.1

8%

Total

5.3

5.1

6%

29.0

27.0

7%

Domestic

0.9

0.8

9%

5.2

4.8

7%

International

0.1

0.1

-6%

0.7

0.7

3%

Total

1.0

0.9

7%

5.9

5.5

6%

Domestic

0.9

0.7

21%

4.6

4.1

13%

International

0.3

0.3

-7%

1.0

1.0

-4%

Total

1.2

1.0

13%

5.6

5.1

9%

0.25

0.25

0%

0.80

0.71

12%

n/a

n/a

Domestic
International

Gazipasa

TAV Turkey Total

Total

0.25

0.25

0%

0.80

0.71

12%

Domestic

0.04

0.03

39%

0.17

0.12

37%

International

0.07

0.05

36%

0.18

0.12

50%

Total

0.12

0.08

37%

0.35

0.24

43%

Domestic

3.8

3.2

18%

20.2

18.0

12%

International

4.0

3.9

4%

21.4

19.9

7%

Total

7.9

7.1

11%

41.5

37.9

10%

International

0.31

0.46

-33%

0.94

1.19

-21%

Macedonia

International

0.13

0.13

4%

0.64

0.56

14%

Georgia

International

0.19

0.17

7%

0.81

0.74

9%

Saudi Arabia

International

0.40

0.46

-13%

2.93

3.10

-5%

Zagreb

International

0.25

0.24

2%

1.16

1.08

7%

TAV Total**

Domestic

4.1

3.5

17%

21.4

19.2

11%

International

5.1

5.1

0%

26.6

25.3

5%

Total

9.2

8.6

7%

48.0

44.6

8%

Tunisia

* TAV started to operate Bodrum-Milas Airport Domestic in August 2014, International operation
will start in October 2015
Like for Like Growth Rates
TAV Turkey Total

TAV Total

Domestic

3.6

3.2

10%

19.4

18.0

8%

International

4.0

3.9

4%

21.4

19.9

7%

Total

7.6

7.1

7%

40.7

37.9

8%

Domestic

4.1

3.7

9%

21.4

20.0

7%

International

5.1

5.1

0%

26.6

25.3

5%

Total

9.2

8.8

4%

48.0

46.4

4%

2
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TAV Airports Holding

OP
OP
MP

OP

OP
OP

OP

OP

UP

07-1 5

06-1 5

05-1 5

04-1 5

03-1 5

02-1 5

01-1 5

12-1 4

11-1 4

10-1 4

09-1 4

08-1 4

07-1 4

06-1 4

05-1 4

04-1 4

03-1 4

02-1 4

01-1 4

12-1 3

11-1 3

10-1 3

09-1 3

08-1 3

07-1 3

06-1 3

05-1 3

04-1 3

03-1 3

02-1 3

OP

OP
MP
UP

MP

MP

OP
OP

TL

01-1 3

280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80

MP

Price / Recommendations

Relative to BIST1 00

Source : BIST/ Is Investment Estimates

Estimate P/E & Actual P/E

Estimate P/BV & Actual P/BV

14.00
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00

4.40
3.90
3.40
2.90
2.40
1.90
1.40

Estimated Forward P/E

Source : BIST/ Is Investment Estimates

12M Trailing P/E

Estimated Forward P/BV

Source : BIST/ Is Investment Estimates

Current P/BV

This report has been prepared by Yatrm Menkul Deerler A.. ( Investment) solely for the information of clients of Investment.
Opinions and estimates contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services
are given according to the investment advisory contract, signed between the intermediary institutions, portfolio management companies,
investment banks and the clients. Opinions and recommendations contained in this report reflect the personal views of the analysts who
supplied them. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be
suitable for all investors. Investors must make their decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial positions and
with the assistance of independent advisors, as they believe necessary.
The information presented in this report has been obtained from public institutions, such as Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Capital
Market Board of Turkey (CMB), Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of the Republic of
Turkey (CBT); various media institutions, and other sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is
its accuracy or completeness guaranteed.
All information in these pages remains the property of Investment and as such may not be disseminated, copied, altered or changed in
any way, nor may this information be printed for distribution purposes or forwarded as electronic attachments without the prior written
permission of Investment. (www.isinvestment.com)

This research report can also be accessed by subscribers of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

3
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07-07-15

23-06-15

09-06-15

26-05-15

12-05-15

28-04-15

14-04-15

31-03-15

17-03-15

03-03-15

17-02-15

03-02-15

20-01-15

06-01-15

23-12-14

09-12-14

25-11-14

11-11-14

28-10-14

14-10-14

30-09-14

0.40

16-09-14

07-07-15

23-06-15

09-06-15

26-05-15

12-05-15

28-04-15

14-04-15

31-03-15

17-03-15

03-03-15

17-02-15

03-02-15

20-01-15

06-01-15

23-12-14

09-12-14

25-11-14

11-11-14

28-10-14

14-10-14

30-09-14

16-09-14

0.90