Workshop:

Scenarios, Communication, Mindmaps

Urban Transportation Planning

MIT Course 1.252j/11.540j

Fall 2006

Mikel Murga, MIT Lecturer and Research Associate

Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Scope

Workshop 1

Introduction from Meyer and Miller

Forecasting and Scenarios
Demographics as an example
Communication tools
Working with Mindmaps

Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Introduction from Meyer and Miller

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

The world moves into the future as a result of decisions (or

the lack of decisions), not as result of plans
All decisions involve the evaluation of alternative images of
the future, and the selection of the most highly valued of
feasible alternatives
Evaluation and decisions are influenced by the degree of
uncertainty associated with expected consequences
The products of planning should be designed to increase the
chance of making better decisions
The result of planning is some form of communication with
decision makers
Chapter 1, pages 2-3

Workshop 1

Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Models and Forecasting

Forecasting:

Workshop 1

Short term
extrapolation:The future on
the basis of the past
Applicable to slow
incremental change
We tend to believe that
todays status quo will
continue for ever
We often ignore

Forecasting
Scenarios

uncertainty

predictability

Time into the future

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

And Scenarios

Workshop 1

A conceptual description of the future based on

cause and effect
Invent and analyze several stories of equally
plausible futures to bring forward surprises and
unexpected leaps of understanding
Goal is not to create a future, nor to choose the
most probable one, but to make strategic
decisions that will be sound (or robust)
under all plausible futures
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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Scenarios
"Scenarios transform information into
perceptions... It is a creative experience
that generates an 'Aha!' ... and leads to
strategic insights beyond the mind's
previous reach."
Pierre Wack GBN

Workshop 1

Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Reading on Scenarios
The Art of the Long View by Peter
Schwartz
Scenarios: The Art of Strategic
Conversation by Kees van der Heijden

Both authors work for the Global Business

Network (www.gbn.com) and come from the
Shell Planning Group
Workshop 1

Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Scenarios: Why?

History is a continuum of pattern breaks

We react to uncertainty through denial
(that is why a quantitative model is so reassuring!)

Mental models, and myths, control what you do

and keep you from raising the right questions
We cannot predict the future with certainty
By providing alternative images of the future:

Workshop 1

We go from facts into perceptions, and,

Open multiple perspectives

Approach: Suspend disbelief in a story long

enough to appreciate its potential impact

Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Scenarios: How?

Workshop 1

Examine the environment in which your

actions will take place and see how those
actions will fit in the prevailing forces, trends,
attitudes and influences
Identify driving forces and critical
uncertainties
Challenge prevailing mental modes and be
creative about the future of critical variables
Rehearse the implications
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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Scenarios: Stages
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Workshop 1

Identify focal issue or decision (ie Global warming)

Identify driving forces in the local environment
Identify driving forces in the macro environment
Rank the importance and uncertainty of each
Select scenario logics (so as to tell a story)
Flesh-out the scenario in terms of driving forces
Analyze implications
Define leading indicators for monitoring
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Scenarios: Rules

Goal:

Required decisions under each scenario? Vulnerabilities?

Can we control the key driving forces?

Good scenarios should be plausible, but also

surprising by breaking old stereotypes
Do not assign probabilities to each scenario
But give a name to each scenario
A total of 3-4 scenarios: Not just two extremes
plus a probable one. Good to have a wildcard

Workshop 1

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Demographics as an example
CANADA

Fertility rate:

Birth rate:

Avg no. of children

born to women over

their lifetime

Total no of births

divided by the size of

the population

Canada claims a low

fertility rate (1.7) but

a high birth rate

Female

80

60
Age

Male

40

20

0
300

200

100

100

200

300

From:Boom, Bust and Echo by Prof Foot

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Population in Thousands
Canada's Population Pyramids, 1996
Workshop 1

Figure by MIT OCW.

Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Demographics:

What do you make of this?

Pirmide de Poblacin 1981 - Poblacin Ocupada 1981 (C.A.V)

>=75
70-75

Mujer Ocupada

65-70

Pirmide de Poblacin 1996 - Poblacin Ocupada 1996 (C.A.V)

Hombre Ocupado

60-65

Mujer

55-60

Hombre

>=75
70-75

50-55
45-50

65-70

40-45

60-65

35-40
25-30

50-55

20-25

45-50

15-20
10-15

40-45

5-10

35-40

0-5
-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

Hombre Ocupado
Mujer
Hombre

55-60

30-35

-100000

Mujer Ocupada

30-35
0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

25-30
20-25
15-20

Pirmide de Poblacin 1986 - Poblacin Ocupada 1986 (C.A.V)

10-15

>=75
70-75

5-10

Mujer Ocupada

65-70

0-5

Hombre Ocupado

60-65

Mujer
Hombre

55-60

-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

50-55
45-50
40-45
35-40
30-35

Pirmide de Poblacin 2001 - Poblacin Ocupada 2001 (C.A.V)

25-30
20-25

>=75

15-20
10-15

70-75

5-10

65-70

Mujer Ocupada
Hombre Ocupado

0-5
-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

20000

40000

60000

80000

60-65

100000

Mujer
Hombre

55-60
50-55
45-50

Pirmide de Poblacin 1991 - Poblacin Ocupada 1991 (C.A.V)

40-45

>=75
70-75

35-40

Mujer Ocupada
Hombre Ocupado

65-70
60-65

30-35

Mujer
Hombre

55-60

25-30
20-25

50-55
45-50

15-20

40-45
35-40

10-15

30-35

5-10

25-30

0-5

20-25
15-20

-100000

10-15

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

5-10

Workshop 1

0-5
-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Demographics

Is age a good predictor for:

Real estate?
Transit use?

2.50

Transit
Drive

2.00

1.50

Use of hard drugs?

1.00

If age is a good predictor,

then:

Establish number of

people in each age group

0.50

0.00
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+
Age
Note: Statistics are for 1986.

Define probability for

each age group, of participation in a

given behavior or activity

Workshop 1

Average Daily Trips per Person, Greater Toronto Area

Figure by MIT OCW.

A 19 yr old has little money but

plenty of time to wait for the bus

From:Boom, Bust and Echo by Prof Foot

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Demographics

According to Professor David K. Foot (Boom,

Bust and Echo), future scenarios entail some
certainty: In 10 yrs, we will all be 10 yrs older
Demographics, not only predictable, but
inevitable: The most powerful, yet underutilized

tool, to understand the past and foretell the

future

Age is a good predictor of behavior and

therefore, a good forecasting tool

Workshop 1

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Communication Tools

Transportation Policy depends to a great extent

on two-way communications:

But impact of a message is based on:

Workshop 1

Policy analysts elected officials

Elected officials other politicians

Elected officials mass media

Public at large elected officials

. .

words (7%),
how words are said (38%), and,
non verbal clues (55%)
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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Communication Tools
learned

Workshop 1

Listening

1st

Speaking

2nd

Reading

3rd

Writing

4th

used

taught

Most
Least
(45%)
Next most Next least
(30%)
Next least Next most
(16%)
Least (9%)
Most

Listening Courses? Toastmasters? Speed reading?

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Communication Tools
The Visual
Display of
Quantitative
Information by
Edward R. Tufte
plus the two
follow-up books
a must-read
reference
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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Communication Tools

How Do you Visualize Change???

Remember that simulations could be critical
Workshop 1

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Other tools of the trade

Workshop 1

Creativity: Lateral thinking, to thinkout-of-the-box, thinkertoys

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Out-of-the-box thinkers

Edward de Bono:

Michael Michalko:

Thinking Tools
Six thinking hats
Lateral Thinking
Cracking Creativity
ThinkerToys

Many others

Workshop 1

The intelligence trap

The Everest effect
Plus.Minus.Interesting.
C.A.F. consider all factors
O.P.V. Other people view
To look for Alternatives
beyond the obvious
Analyze Consequences
Problem Solving and Lateral
Thinking
Provocations
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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mindmapping
See MindMapping by Tony Buzan et al

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mindmapping
You see what you
know and where the
gaps are
Clears your mind of
mental clutter
It works well for
group brainstorming

Workshop 1

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mindmapping
A whole-brain
alternative to
linear thinking
Retain both
the overall
picture and the
details
Promote
associations

Workshop 1

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mindmapping
You see what you
know and where the
gaps are
Clears your mind of
mental clutter
It works well for
group brainstorming

Workshop 1

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mindmapping

Workshop 1

Let us do a joint MindMap

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mind-Mapping

Workshop 1

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mind-Mapping

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2006

Mind-Mapping

Workshop 1

www.mindjet.com

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