EXPRESSION of INTEREST

Research title : A preliminary statistical and system dynamics analysis of the impacts

of climate change on rice farming in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

Introduction
Currently, I am doing a research on understanding the impacts of climate change on the rice supply
chain. As a PhD candidate from the School of Management (VUW) I have been supervised by two
professors from the School of Management: A/Prof Bob Cavana and Prof. Lawrie Corbett. To guide
me in climate issues, Prof. James Renwick, from SGEES, has joined my supervisory team a co
supervisor.
A/Prof Bob Cavana is a Reader in the School of Management and an author of the book System
Thinking and and Modelling. He is a former Vice President System Dynamics society and a senior
fellow of ANZAM (Australia New Zealand Academy Management). Some of his publications can be
seen at http://www.victoria.ac.nz/som/about/staff/bob-cavana.
Prof. Lawrie Corbett is an expert on operation strategy and quality management. He also a member
of some institutions such as Operations Management Society, Decision Sciences Institute and
Academy of Management (ANZAM). A lot of his publication can be seen at
http://www.victoria.ac.nz/som/about/staff/lawrie-corbett.
Prof James Renwick is currently interested in Antarctic climate, especially in the pattern of the
Antarctic ice sea. He also has some background in statistics, atmospheric physics climate
modelling. A complete of his CV can be downloaded at
http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sgees/about/staff/staff-cvs/CV-Renwick-general-201503.pdf

Bahri will attend and present his research in METSOC conference. I am currently a PhD candidate
in the School of Management. My strong interest is system dynamics modelling in which I firstly
learned it when I was a master student. My master thesis and some system dynamics models have
been downloaded more than 20,000 times from www.scribd.com and researchgate.net.

Expected contributions
By presenting my current research in METSOC conference, I will explain the projections climate in
West Nusa Tenggara (WNT), an Indonesian province. WNT is a national host for rice supply in
Indonesia and this is projected to experience an increase of temperature and a change of rainfall.

There are some papers explain how minimum temperature and rainfall can affect the rice supply
chain. For instance, minimum temperature may decrease rice yield and a delayed rainfall may
hinder planting seasons, causing a lower rice yield. In addition, rainfall may increase paddy
(unhusked rice) moisture, causing a longer paddy-drying time. A longer paddy-drying and a decline
of rice yield can compound the negative effect of climate change on the rice supply chain.

The first contribution is to explain the impact of climate and production input on rice yield and the
second one is to explain the impact of rainfall pattern on rice yield under different RCP scenarios.

My presentation will explain step by step how I obtain robust statistical models explaining the impact
of climate change on rice yield and then I explain future rice yield under different RCP scenarios.
Later, I explain rainfall may delay planting seasons, reducing seasonal rice yield. At the end, I will
explain how to combine and explain these on system dynamics modelling.