REVIEW: SKEEVES CROATIAN FOOTBALL PICKS REVIEWER: ROWAN DAY

NICHE FOOTBALL TIPSTER MAKING PROFITABLE PR OGRESS

Service Name: Croatian Football Bets
Website: skeevepicks.com
Email: skeevepicks@gmail.com
Bet Delivery: Email

Sports Covered: Croatian football

Bet Frequency: c.10 bets/month, July - May
Pricing: 400 euros/season which also includes
Skeevepicks non-league bets.
SBC Discount: 375 euros/season to SBC members via
this hidden link only

Service In Brief: A niche service that focuses on the Croatian Football League, the Croatian
national teams games, and European competition matches featuring Croatian teams.
Service in Detail: Croatian Football Bets is a service run and administered by Skeeve, a longestablished football betting expert who over the years has carved out a fine reputation for
himself as a UK non-league tipster. Skeeve has implemented many of the features that have
made his own Skeevepicks service such a success, to ensure that this relatively new venture is
equally as well run.
The usual cost of 400 Euros per season has been discounted to 375 Euros for SBC members only,
which is available via this hidden link. Membership provides access to both Skeeve's service
(which will advise official bets from January to May 2016) as well as the Croatian Football Bets
service.
It is fair to say that Skeeves professionalism is beyond reproach. He operates a very fair odds
quoting policy which involves recording the official prices at a set time following bet release.
Subscribers are forewarned of any imminent betting action too, usually with at least a 24 hour
notice, so there is plenty of time to get organized and be ready for the picks as they come
through.
The tipster behind the Croatian Football Bets service is not Skeeve himself, although he does
have an influence in his role as a Senior Advisor (more of which later), but a chap called Tony
Grappa (not his real name).
Here is a little background on Tony, provided by the man himself:
I placed my first bet back in 1999, when 1st bet shop in Zagreb was opened. It was parlay
accumulator of 6 football bets. I placed 3 euros hoping to win 120... I got only one match
outcome right... It's been a long time since then, lot of things changed now I place only single
bets, sometimes doubles. Mostly Asian Handicaps, of course, sometimes over/under bets. For the
most of the good things in betting I have to say thanks to good old Skeeve (first time we met as a
teenagers back in the 90s, when betting in Croatia was illegal ). Now, we play football
occasionally, so Skeeve told me that he wasn't satisfied with the CFB team and offered me a
position of the main tipster (since he knew that I have success betting on Croatian footbal). And
let's not forget I'm a follower of his picks for years, so I got the idea of all the things needed for
writing good quality analysis.
I live in Zagreb Lokomotiva's training ground is 500 meters away from my flat, the training
camp of Croatian National Team is just across the river Sava (also 1 km away) and that is also a
training camp of NK Zagreb. So, you can say I'm right in the middle of the action...
A fact that also helps me in analyzing the matches are local media Glas Istre (Istra 1961),
Novi list (Rijeka), Glas Slavonije (Osijek), Slobodna Dalmacija (Hajduk and RNK Split),
Podravski list (Slaven Belupo). The clubs from Zagreb are very well covered in the only daily
sports newspapers Sportske novosti (I've been subscriber for years). And all those local media

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have their free websites.

The fact that also helps a lot is that from this year all 5 matches in each round are televised! So,
10 hours of football a week, plus the European cups.
Tony looks for value within the Asian Handicap and the Under/Over Total Goals markets which
even in the niche Croatian league, holds enough liquidity on matchday to ensure sufficiently
high limits for bettors playing with sizeable stakes. With this in mind, one small alteration to the
service is being made this season in that all bets are to be released on match day itself, and not
24 hours before as was the norm last season. The hope is that the odds on the selections will
hold up a little better too.
Bets are issued by email and in addition to the basic detail, a full analysis and reasoning is given
for each selection.
Here is an example of a recent email:
Europa League Qualifiers: Sillamae Kalev - Hajduk Split UNDER 3.25 GOALS (min. odds: 1.75) 1
point
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/europe/europa-league/sillamae-kalev-hajduk-splitx4hBTXaa/#over-under;2
Hajduk will play first leg match in Estonia, vs Sillame Kalev, while the 2nd leg match will be
played in Dugopolje, as at Hajduk's stadium Ultra Europe electronic music festival is taking place.
Hajduk wanted to play 1st leg at home, but Estonians said "no". That means they're taking this
match serious and although they're probably aware that Hajduk has better players, they won't
surrender. Sillamae Kalev ended last season on 2nd place of Estonian league. I watched the
highlights of all league matches they played this season and I can tell you that they're pretty
much defensive minded (they have 6 clean sheets in the last 8 matches). They currently hold 5th
place, they lost at home vs Flora 2:1 on Saturday, but they were quite unlucky with the first goal.
Their home pitch doesn't have UEFA's licence, so they will play in Rakvere, some 70 kilometres
away.
Hajduk has new coach Damir Buric. He played as a midfielder in RNK Split, but he never played
for Hajduk he went straight to German Bundesliga, then he was assistant coach in Freiburg,
Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen. He was assistant of Robin Dutt, but since he was in
charge of scouting opponents and tactics, the time has come for his first job as a first coach.
Hajduk brought more than few new players forward Franck Ohandze Zoa from Sesvete (they
were 2nd in Croatian 2nd league) and scored 12 goals (10 goals in the last 10 matches), he also
played for Cameroon U-20 National Team at World Cup); 22-years old defensive midfielder
Jefferson (from Portuguese 2nd league club Feirense); 20-years old winger Artem Radchenko (he
played for Ukranian youth teams since U-16); another Ukraninan - 24-years old defender
Maxim Bilyyi from Zorya Luhansk; and probably the most important young forward Ante
Roguljic from Red Bull Salzburg (he was born in Split, but never played for Hajduk). Tomislav Kis,
Tonci Mujan and Marko Bencun are back from loans, talented youngster Andrija Balic (unless he
moves to Valencia for 6 or 7 millions), Nikola Vlasic (brother of famous high-jumper Blanka won't
leave this season for sure), Elvir Maloku (he singned new contract) and Fran Tudor are still with
the team, and if we add experienced (but still young) Sven Tino Susic (injured), Mijo Caktas,
Anton Maglica and Artem Milevskyi (injured) Hajduk might look quite young and potent this
season. But not just yet. They did look ok in the the preparation period 3 wins in 3 matches
3:1 vs Domzale (Slovenian 1st league), 1:0 vs Reid (Austrian 1st league) and 2:1 vs Vorwaerts
Steyr (Austrian 3rd league). But they have problems in scoring goals, which is normal - this
team is training together for only 3 weeks and the coach is new.
If we take a look at recent Hajduk's away matches in ELQ, we can see than Hajduk never scored
more than 2 goals in away match vs opponents from the more or less same quality level (1:0

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defeat at Skonto Riga, 1:1 draw at Horizont Turnovo, 1:0 defeat at Dila Gori, 2:0 win at Dundalk).
Last time they scored more was in 2008, at Birkirkara from Malta (3:0). I expect defensive
minded SK, while Hajduk will try to score couple of goals, but I'm sure they'll be careful, as they
know the 2nd leg match will be played in 7 days.
pre-mail odds:
2.02 with 12bet, Dafabet...
2.01 with 188bet...
2.00 with SBO...
Although Skeeve uses only Pinnacle, SBObet, and 12Bet/Dafabet for official odds recording
purposes, you can see that he lists the better prices available at other books. The link to the
relevant market on Oddsportal is a useful inclusion in the details given too.
Service Proofing: All of the Croatia Football Bets picks have been proofed to the SBC since July
2013. The first season of tips (2013/14) were also posted for free in the SBC forum.
Service Results: Over the course of the two full seasons running from 2013/14 to 2014/15, there
have been 170 bets issued, a profit of 26.16 points to 1 point level stakes attained, at an ROI of
15.38%. This translates to an ROC over this period of 112.4%

Performance Summary
Bets

Staked

P/L

ROI

ROC

2013-14 Season

94

94.0

18.36

19.5%

73.4%

2014-15 Season

76

76.0

7.80

10.2%

39.0%

All Selections

170

170.0

26.16

15.4%

112.4%

Skeeve has informed his members that a particularly strong time of year for Tony is midsummer.
Through July and August, not only is the Croatian league getting underway but teams from that
country are involved in European competition qualifying matches. It is both Tony and Skeeves
belief that at this very early stage of the season, the bookmakers are at a considerable
disadvantage and vulnerable to an experienced and knowledgeable tipster when it comes to
pricing up these matches. It is not until later in the season that the bookmakers catch up, which
is when Skeeve has started to lend his experience to the Croatian betting operation with the aim
of ensuring that real value exists in each bet issued.
The figures bear Skeeves and Tonys assertion out with 16.1 pts of the profit seen so far (61%)
coming at this time of year as the table below reveals:

July/August Performance
Bets

Staked

P/L

ROI

ROC

2013

29

29.0

6.5

22.3%

25.9%

2014

34

34.0

9.7

28.4%

48.4%

All Selections

63

63.0

16.1

25.6%

74.2%

We should also mention, whilst analyzing this angle, that the later Croatian Football League bets
actually produced a small loss last season of -1.87 points from September 2014 through to May
2015, but as stated, this is when Skeeve intends to get more involved in the selection process.
He first did so in February 2015, and following his input results started to improve to the extent
that March, April and May 2015 were all individually profitable.

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Betting Bank: With the low turnover of bets and 1 pt staking per bet, the advised betting bank
from Skeeve stands at 20 points, which we are happy to utilise.
In total, his record indicates a strike-rate of 55.88% win, 7.06% void/push and 37.06% loss with
average odds last season of 1.95 (19/20).
Odds Availability: Skeeve operates an extremely fair odds policy which involves taking the best
price offered by one of Pinnacle, SBOBet and 12bet/Dafabet one minute after the bets are
released. With just a little effort and application therefore, at least matching the officially
recorded prices should be a fairly straightforward task.
We should also add that Skeeve recorded the odds on the Croatia Football Bets picks through
Season 2014/15 at time of kick off. The results showed that even if utilising this method, a profit
of 6.01 points (cf. an officially recorded 7.8 points) was attained at an ROI of 7.9%, 2.3% below
that achieved by the official prices.
Service Practicality: As weve just discussed above, to match the official results of this service it is
necessary to be sitting in front of your PC or laptop as bets are released. However, it is easy
enough to put plans in place so that you can do this as Skeeve always gives plenty of warning of
the possibility of new picks being released, and generally with at least a 24 hour notice.
Communication to members from Skeeve is exemplary, analysis and rationale behind each bet
clear and comprehensive, and with such a restricted list of bookmakers utilized for the purposes
of official returns, followers will not need to resort to using some of the more obscure books to
place their bets.
Service In Summary: This is a service that will suit those who prefer to be more patient in their
approach to betting and who like to hire the expertise of a specialist able to identify value in a
league that perhaps doesnt always get the closest of attention from bookmakers. There is
compelling evidence that in the early part of the Croatian football season, the books are not
completely on the ball and Tony Grappa has shown that he is able to exploit this situation to the
benefit of those following his picks.
It is to be hoped that Skeeves own influence can be exerted for the good when it comes to the
latter stages of the season when form has settled and there appear to be fewer bookmaker ricks
to take advantage of. The early signs are good that this is indeed the case. If so, then we have a
service with excellent potential to provide a healthy, steady profit over time.
Croatian Football Bets is not a service likely to turn over a betting bank quickly. There are
relatively few bets when compared to some of the other football betting services in the market,
but that isnt necessarily a disadvantage. There is always room for a tipster who is selective in his
approach within any balanced portfolio.
One thing we can say with certainty, is that CFB is a service that is run along extremely
professional lines, and which boasts a very fair odds quoting policy.
We will be keeping a keen eye on performance, especially over the summer months and will be
reporting back on progress, especially once we have a few more proofed bets under our belt. For
the time-being, we are happy to apply a speculative buy rating.
Service Ratings:
Returns: 2.5/5.
Risk: 3.5
Cost: 3
Transparency: 4.5
Odds Availability: 4.5

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Suggested portfolio weighting: 2.5

Customer service: 5
Overall: 2.5
Patience: 12 months
Rating: Speculative Buy
Betting Bank: 20 points

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