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Abstract—At a workshop held on the Aeolian Islands in Sicily come easily. Thermal and passive component integration
during May 2004 a group of academic and industry engineers from is equally important and will require attention.
all over the world discussed the medium-and long-term future of
power electronics and its applications in specific areas. The fol-
lowing main issues were identified and discussed. I. FIFTH WORKSHOP ON THE FUTURE OF ELECTRONIC POWER
— The demand is not for power electronic solutions but PROCESSING AND CONVERSION (FEPPCON V)
for system integration of electronic power processing. A
—
more multidisciplinary approach is needed.
We will witness a proliferation of energy storage in sys-
tems. The technology is in place and the improvement in
T HE workshop was hosted and sponsored by the Depart-
ment of Electrical, Electronic and Systems Engineering of
the University of Catania, Italy, in particular by the Electrical
system performance makes it worthwhile.
— A large penetration of power electronics into power sys- Machines and Power Electronics Group and by CePTIT (Center
tems will happen within the next 25–30 years. The main for Promotion and Transfer of Technology Innovation).
transmission grid will not be affected. The power elec- It was presented with partial support from STMicroelec-
tronics development will be in distributed generation and
tronics, Catania, Italy, and was technically co-sponsored by
in the loads.
— The success of the integrated starter/generator, hybrid the IEEE Industry Applications Society, the IEEE Power
or electric cars depends on political decisions more than Electronics Society, the AEI (Italian Electric Engineering As-
on technological advances. However, the success of a re- sociation), and the IEEE-IAS and PELS Joint Chapter (Central
cent Japanese hybrid car and the cost of oil could trigger
and South Italy).
the critical momentum for large-scale use of power elec-
tronics in automotive applications. The Steering Committee included the four authors of the
— We are moving toward standardized power supply present paper and the Technical Program Committee was
building blocks for computers and other applications. chaired by F. Blaabjerg and J. A. Ferreira.
The main push is for lower cost, and production tech-
nology becomes the important issue.
The Workshop started on May 20, 2004 in Salina, one of the
— Demands for improved performance in a diversity of Aeolian Islands that are located in the Mediterranean Sea, north
applications will stimulate R&D in power electronics in of Sicily.
future. Intelligent control and energy management will The technical program was organized to include discus-
sions and predictions about the future of Power Electronics in
Manuscript received December 1, 2004; revised February 1, 2005. Recom- different areas of applications with a look to long-term and
mended for publication by Associate Editor J. A. Ferreira. medium-term perspectives. The afternoon of the third day was
F. Blaabjerg is with the Institute of Energy Technology, Aalborg University,
Aalborg East DK-9220, Denmark (e-mail: fbl@iet.auc.dk). devoted to describing three different experiences of Power
A. Consoli is with the Department of Electric Electronic and Systems Electronics Research Centers around the world that may be
Engineering, University of Catania, Catania 6-95125, Italy (e-mail: acon- viewed as practical approaches to a common and global vision
soli@diees.unict.it).
B. J. A. Ferreira is with the Electrical Power Processing Unit, EWI Faculty, of the research in Power Electronics. On the fourth day the final
Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 CD, The Netherlands. conclusions of the discussions were drawn, and this paper has
J. D. van Wyk is with the Center for Power Electronics Systems, The Bradley been prepared by the Steering Committee without necessarily
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic In-
stitute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA (e-mail: daan@vt.edu). following the order of the discussions according to the program.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPEL.2005.846516 The keynote papers were presented both from industry and
0885-8993/$20.00 © 2005 IEEE
716 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER ELECTRONICS, VOL. 20, NO. 3, MAY 2005
academia to introduce and start the discussions. They included — Environmental requirements for the future will
such topics as follows. be demanding. (recycling of obsolete power elec-
1) “Alternative Energy: Future developments and implica- tronics/take-back, EMI).
tions for power electronics.” — The future belongs to the power-electronics-fed ac
2) “The role of Power Electronics in Distributed power for drives—dc machines will become obsolete in 20 years.
the Hydrogen Society.” — A shift in future industries will lead to large groups
3) “State-of-the-art and trends of high voltage power devices producing integrated building blocks.
and medium voltage converters for industry and trans- 3) Summary of Main Conclusions From FEPPCON II. (Aug.
portation.” 1994, Berg-En-Dal, South Africa):
4) “Sustainable Storage Technologies.”
— Power Electronics applications are permeating the
5) “The next generation drives and energy storage for trac-
household, lighting, HVAC and machine tool areas on
tion applications.”
the shorter term.
6) “Power Electronics in Power Systems. Where are the
— Power Electronics will in future have to consider en-
problems and when comes the market?”
vironmental electromagnetic pollution, environmental
7) “Automotive—Next high Volume Application for PE.”
chemical pollution, recycling, energy efficiency.
8) “Power Electronics for CPU’s and Portable Electronics.”
— The cost of using power electronics in applications will
be adversely affected by
recycling;
II. PREVIOUS FEPPCON WORKSHOPS standards regarding EMI;
intelligence/protection;
The workshop has been held four times before, three times modular converters;
in South Africa and once in Italy. Below are the characteristics reliability considerations;
and the conclusions from the past workshops. maintainability requirements.
1) Workshop Characteristics: — SiC is an important future development in power semi-
— The Workshops have always had an invited attendance conductors (10 yrs).
of up to 40 participants. — Limitations of materials for passive components are
— There has been no prescribed structure for the interac- affecting the future possibilities of power processing.
tion, and this tended to change as experience built up — Major advances can be made with intelligent integrated
over the years. power electronic modules.
— Expert viewpoints have always been invited, presented — Power converter modules of the future will include
and then discussed in different formats. power semiconductors, drivers, reactive components,
— The Workshops have always been self-financing. transformers, protection and control.
— An isolated venue conducive to interaction has always
4) Summary of Main Conclusions From FEPPCON III. (July
been chosen.
1998, Skukuza, South Africa):
— The program has always been structured to give ample
time for individual interaction and discussion — SiC power semiconductors are now near term (5 years).
— Integrated power processing units will drive the future
2) Summary of Main Conclusions From FEPPCON I (Aug.
of power electronic applications.
1991, Karos Lodge South Africa):
— Functional and electromagnetic integration will pro-
— The cost of power converters confines them to niche duce a paradigm shift in the internal structure of power
applications at all power levels. electronics modules.
— The future will demand new achievements in integra- — Thermal limitations of power processing modules in-
tion, packaging, reliability and cost reduction. dicate that loss reduction has to be addressed as impor-
— Widespread application of power electronics in auto- tant future topic (devices and other materials)
mobiles is expected in the next ten years, especially in — Soft switching is still an important future technology
internal combustion engine control and auxiliaries. for power electronics (EMI, losses).
— New applications in centralized power systems will — EMI and its mitigation will be a decisive future shaping
emerge in the next ten years. factor for power processing.
— Emerging applications that are becoming important — Distributed generation and power quality is an impor-
in commercial/residential areas: HVAC, induction tant future consideration.
cooking, medical, lighting, computer power. — Advanced AI and sensors will produce the next par-
— Advances in high current, higher voltage devices will adigm shift (self-commissioning, self-diagnostics, re-
have a major impact on traction applications. configuration, multi-functionality).
— The important future applications of high power con-
verters will move into links between incompatible 5) Summary of Main Conclusions From FEPPCON IV. (May
power systems; dc arc furnaces; dynamic grid com- 2001, Salina, Aeolian Islands, Italy):
pensators; high frequency transmission for high power — For low-power applications, integration will continue
over short distances; and mobile units. to be pursued to achieve minimum cost, driven by the
BLAABJERG et al.: FUTURE OF ELECTRONIC POWER PROCESSING AND CONVERSION 717
requirements for miniaturization, reliability, and per- The main issue that came forward from the discussions was
formance. that the power electronics community tends to think and work
— For very high-power applications, modularization will too narrowly. We seem to have difficulty to integrate our knowl-
be expanding, provided the system cost, efficiency, edge into systems. A similar situation exists with reliability. The
flexibility and EMC are acceptable in the applications. problem is that we do not really know how to deal with it. If we
— For medium-power applications, the total system inte- can quantify and control it power electronics will more readily
gration still leaves a lot of room for improvements in be applied in power systems, for example.
cost, power modules, control and sensing, passives, re- 2) Future Developments and Challenges: An opportunity
liability, performance. exists for power electronics to expand its role dealing with
— Fast energy storage is required in numerous applica- smart, intelligent, and efficient power processing in all kinds of
tions. At present, super capacitors seem to be the most applications. Power systems is one application that offers many
promising solution for energies up to 5 kWh. In the possibilities. Another application is mechatronic systems.
next ten years, all other energy storage options will Power systems applications in particular need to be revi-
continue to be considered. talized at universities because old engineers are retiring and
— High ratio of peak/average power rating is important replacements are not being trained. If something is not urgently
in numerous applications that are thermally limited. done then we will not be able to address the challenges in
A general observation is that technology-wise a faster impact power systems. As a dynamic discipline that attracts students,
of a new technology has been forecasted earlier than seen in the power electronics education program can contribute to this
reality but many correct trends have been concluded. need in power engineering.
In educating engineers a broader background is required, in-
III. DISCUSSION ON THE FUTURE OF ELECTRONIC POWER cluding mechanical issues such as heat transfer and fatigue,
PROCESSING AND CONVERSION AT FEPPCON V which are now often neglected. In order to expand our role we
should grow integrated projects at universities. In the process
A. Progressing From Power Electronics Into Systems we will have to take aspects on board that we, classical elec-
1) Relevant Issues: Three levels exist in power electronics, trical engineers, may not be comfortable with. A good example
namely components, circuits, and systems. Components and of such an issue is thermal management. New technologies and
more specifically semiconductor devices have been the major better designs of the thermal housekeeping may have more po-
technology drivers. Circuits and topologies have received tential for increasing the power density than the conventional
much attention and consequently the middle level has matured. electrical approach of improving the efficiency.
Circuit topology innovations have stagnated, perhaps with the This new role of power electronics is not something that can
exception of high power. Research opportunities still exist happen overnight. It has to be addressed at grass root levels,
with devices. Systems need to get more attention and this is in the education programs. The reductionism educational para-
where we see the main challenge for the future. Performance, digm has to be turned around and at universities we have to go
control issues and system integration issues have become more back from specialist to generalizt degrees.
important than power electronic technology. Reliability and The power electronics engineer of the future has to be mul-
cost will be very important for consumer acceptance. tidisciplinary. For example; electrochemistry background in the
During the past two decades not much has changed regarding educational program is important and a new/mixed curriculum
the basic principles and the technology that is used to construct is required. We have to get physicists involved. Integration has
converters. Despite this the industry has managed to reduce the to occur at a faculty level. There is a general need for the integra-
cost and increase the power density substantially. Component tion of different fields in the educational program; the primary
factories have become more cost effective and moved to coun- need is at faculty level.
tries where the labor is cheap and productive. The increase in
power densities has been achieved by doing circuit optimiza- B. Energy Storage
tion in an engineering environment where a significant amount
of technology standardization has occurred in the face of enor- 1) Relevant Issues: The use of alternative energy sources on
mous cost pressures. These cost pressures makes it difficult to a large scale requires new technologies such as reliable power
change power electronics technology as such and a better op- electronics interface, new system control issues as well as en-
tion is to invest in the way that power electronics is applied in ergy storage systems. It could be combined with the possibility
systems. of the installation of other highly dynamic power sources, if they
We need to gain a better understanding of the role that power can be controlled in a way so the sum of alternative power and
electronics plays in systems. Power electronics is not in a posi- dynamic power is constant. Furthermore, HVDC in larger re-
tion to dictate new developments. The market pull is the impor- gions will be linked to balance out regional differences in power
tant driver. Power electronics is not a technology push. Power generation (wind) and the power consumption. However no real
electronics is an enabling technology that means that we play break-through is seen in large-scale energy storage systems.
a supporting role only. If we want to play a bigger role then A high capacity energy storage device was proposed based
we need to understand the systems issues. We should aim to do on oil and pneumatics for environmental friendliness, high effi-
power processing and not power electronics. The demand is for ciency and long lifetime. The first tests were already done and
the system integration of power processing. it could be a local solution.
718 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER ELECTRONICS, VOL. 20, NO. 3, MAY 2005
For energy storage capacities of a few kWh, Supercapacitors Transmission systems are not yet designed for deregulation
are proposed and used today as appropriate storage elements in of the energy market. For example, the US power grid infra-
applications like scooters and Diesel electric propulsion. Super- structure needs modernization as the future grid will have to
capacitors have during the last few years seen an improved relia- be smart, fault tolerant, dynamically and statically controllable,
bility and the cost has decreased. In tram applications the kinetic and finally energy efficient.
energy of the vehicle can be recuperated, which has major ad- Power quality represents a significant opportunity to apply
vantages like: power electronics to power systems. However, it is still neces-
sary to establish knowledge about how customers will be willing
— fewer losses in overhead lines;
to pay for having power electronics in power systems. One good
— limited autonomy that allows crossings of trams
reason could be that industrial productivity reduction is related
without visual pollution in cities;
with power quality.
— lower current in overhead lines; fewer substations and
2) Future Developments and Challenges: The future power
less copper use can be considered.
systems have to deal with distributed subsystems, distributed
And Supercapacitors are projected to be implemented in such energy storage systems, active control of each subsystem, and
applications. fast exchange of information among the subsystems.
2) Future Developments and Challenges: Hydrogen Power electronics penetration in the power system PQ market
economy will provide a good opportunity for power electronics is conditioned by who will pay for it. Investigation of possible
in the long term but also to provide a higher number of storage solutions to power system problems should be carried on by
facilities. However the production, storage and transportation means of small steps to be applied to small grids (ships, cars,
of hydrogen are still the main limiting factors that have to be airplanes) first.
overcome in the near future if such a society is to be developed. Monitoring of current power systems and using new power
In power systems, hydrogen storage is not seen to be an ef- systems in developing countries as field for testing is necessary
ficient alternative compared to pumped hydro as the latter has in order to learn before building new electrical systems, which
a much higher efficiency and is already a mature technology. is a major investment. It is expected that a large penetration of
However the capacity for pumped hydro is limited by geograph- power electronics into power systems will happen within the
ical constraints (hills, mountains) and in many areas this is not next 25–30 years.
possible without transporting the energy over long distances. One important application could be the utilization of power
In an automotive application the situation is different. Ultra- electronics to limit critical faults in transmission and distribution
capacitors seem to be the ideal devices to recover the kinetic systems.
(braking) energy. Their energy and power densities have im-
proved five fold in the last 5 years. Other benefits are: fewer D. Automotive
substations, operation in areas with no overhead lines, and re-
duced installed power. Ultracapacitors have become attractive 1) Relevant Issues: The automotive industry is reluctant to
from a cost perspective. In diesel-electric systems the diesel-en- introduce changes by itself and many of the improvements that
gine size can be reduced and the diesel engine can be turned off we have seen during the past decades were driven by legislation.
in stations. This is in particular true of under-the-skin technology changes
Storage systems should be used to decouple sub-systems in that do not directly contribute to the sales appeal of automo-
power systems during transients. biles. As a result they are quite reluctant to make changes in
Efficient energy storage is one of the main challenges in the the existing on-board electric power net and the 42 V system is
next decade in order to optimize the use of energy in many being delayed, even though the electrical power demand of cars
applications. is increasing continuously and is reaching the limit of today’s
systems.
The technology for reduced fuel consumption is already
C. Power Systems there, based on integrated starter generators (ISG), hybrid or
electric cars but since the consumer does not ask for it, it is not
1) Relevant Issues: The power system has gotten more being implemented on a significant scale. The success of ISG,
attention in recent years due to different blackouts globally. hybrid, or electric cars depends on political decisions more
Power electronics can improve the efficiency of generation, in than on technological advances.
transmission systems, and in distribution systems. Despite this The success of the new generation Toyota Prius is an impor-
power electronic solutions have so far failed to penetrate the tant event. The consumer is enthusiastic about a car that has a lot
utility market meaningfully. Although US electricity market is of power electronics and the production numbers are consider-
growing at 2.5% per year the investment in transmission and able. The success stimulates research and development at com-
distribution infrastructures has unfortunately declined. petitors. The Prius has excellent reliability reports and scored
The electric grid has minimal active control, automation and well in crash tests. However because of the high battery voltage
communication capabilities as the main issue is cost reduction. safety aspects in case of accidents should not be ignored.
Other networks (e.g. phones, internet, etc.) are now smart and The reliability and lifetime of batteries remains an issue even
fault tolerant, and provide higher reliability and availability at though we have witnessed a good improvement in these de-
low cost. partments in recent years. Aging of batteries is not an issue
BLAABJERG et al.: FUTURE OF ELECTRONIC POWER PROCESSING AND CONVERSION 719
for consumers if only boost and regenerative braking is consid- Significant technological advances have been made for the
ered. The Prius was developed some years ago and at that time low voltage and high current dc/dc converters, including inte-
the Double Layer Capacitor (DLC) was too expensive for cars. gration in control for the multi-phase converter, integration of
Maybe therefore a Nickel Metal Hydrate (NiMH) battery was power devices and drivers, either in the form of hybrid package
used. The next car generation may have DLC’s. or monolithically. Standardized building blocks exist now.
2) Future Developments and Challenges: The 42-V power 2) Future Developments and Challenges: The power man-
net is an intermediate step to introduce more power electronics. agement solutions developed for CPU’s have been trail blazing,
Some manufacturers have already introduced 42 V, albeit at a including technologies such as the application of small fuel
small level. However its future is not clear. It may be bypassed cells, the scalable modular building block approach, advanced
in favor of higher voltage systems as has been done by manu- packaging, and system integration. The lesson learned here is
facturers of hybrid drive systems. valuable to other applications as well and should be used as an
Various factors are pushing for reduced fuel consumption. In example for future road maps. A specific example is the syn-
the long term primary energy sources other than oil have to be chronous buck converter that has become a standard solution in
used. In the shorter term special cars for short distance driving multi-phase CPU power supplies. Potential applications of this
that do not need large batteries can solve the problem. Such cars multi-phase buck-converter approach for other higher power
already exist but are a small niche market today. applications are interesting.
We do not expect the fuel cell car to go in series production Technology growth in the CPU is not sustainable unless there
before 2020. Development of better battery systems is going on is a fundamental change in the system concept. Is there any long-
and may replace fuel cells for electric cars when the time comes. term technology roadmap for the power management solution
for future microprocessors?
Low-voltage capacitor technology and integrated passives are
E. Technology important areas of future research. Integration of magnetic com-
ponents embedded in the PCB has been demonstrated. The in-
1) Relevant Issues: Application is a driver and a large tegration of capacitors in the packaging process is a challenge.
market growth in power electronics is projected. The scope is The power densities that can be achieved with current tech-
wide and not all application fields could be discussed. Auto- nology are thermally limited. Technologies for better thermal
motive, power systems and power supplies are three important management are needed. Thermal issues are important for the
technology drivers. A few aspects of the latter two deserve integration of passives and overall system integration.
consideration.
There is a clear economic advantage in scaling the power of IV. CONCLUSION
wind turbines into the MW range. Power and weight density of
the power electronics and generator have become a fundamental 1) From the discussion of the conclusions from the first
limiting factor preventing scaling higher up into the MW range. four FEPPCON’s, it is evident that although the correct
A major technological challenge will be to integrate dis- tendencies for new technology development within
tributed generation sources into the grid. Solar panels will be Power Electronics had been identified in the majority
of cases, the rate of penetration into actual practice
integrated in the construction of the roofs of buildings. Organic
has been much slower than originally expected.
cells are not at present reliable, but could allow panel costs to
2) The format of FEPPCON has been found to be con-
be reduced to 10% of present cost. This type of technology
ducive to free, innovative and stimulating discussions
should be economically viable in 10 years. The aesthetics are
and ideas development. This should be continued as
also better than present panel structures. Fuel cells will not
a nonaligned think-tank on the future of Power Elec-
become practical in house applications. For power stations,
tronics.
though, they will be viable. The next wave of development in Power Electronics
3)
Grid interaction is a particularly challenging issue. Then we will be driven by understanding the systems issues on
not only talk about issues related to the integration of distributed a multi-disciplinary level, adapting the possible solu-
generation sources. For example, we do things with the grid tions Power Electronics has to offer to these problems
that were not planned such as the injection of high frequencies. and generating a response to the “applications pull.”
Engineers are required to understand grid interactions better. In this regard the following systems pulls were
Increased efficiency by introducing power electronics will re- identified:
sult in large power/energy savings in electrical loads. In existing Power Electronics into Generic Systems;
power electronic loads the efficiency must be improved. Power Energy Storage;
consumption for computers, telecommunication equipment, and Power Systems, including Alternative Energy
battery chargers for all forms of battery-operated equipment are Supply;
significant. Design of energy efficient power supplies for full Automotive Systems.
load as well as for light load are important challenges. Energy It has been concluded that technology challenges will develop
efficient consumer electronics and appliances are equally im- along the directions generated by these pulls. It was pointed out
portant. Energy management that takes into consideration of the that the educational system (internationally) is not well geared
interactions among the energy source, dc/dc converters, and the to these developments, since it tends to force specialization into
associated loads is a very important issue. Power Electronics as a self-sustaining field.
720 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER ELECTRONICS, VOL. 20, NO. 3, MAY 2005