HINTS AND SOLUTIONS OF DIFFICULT PROBLEMS ON CHAPTER 4 (PROBABILITY THEORY)

Exercises 4.3(page 167)

4-14(Hint): From the data given on percentage budget approval, the following table is apparent.
Percentage budget approved
Probability
Less than 25
0
25-49
y
50-74
2x
75-99
x
100
1/20=0.05
Total
1
Now we also have the result, 2x=2.5y and the result follows.
Exercises 4.4 (page 174)
4-19 (Hint): From the data given below it is apparent that marbles are distinguished using two attributes: and we have the following table.
Swirled
Clear
TOTAL
Red
30
10
40
Blue
25
10
35
Total
55
20
75
Then the problem becomes straightforward.
4-22 (Hint): Let K= event of Keyboard failure,
D= event of disk-drive failure
Given: P(D)=one third of P(K), P(KD)=0.05
a) Use relation P(K or D)=P(K D)=P(K)+P(D)-P(KD)=0.2
because (80% resistant means the probability is 20%)
b) Straightforward after understanding part (a).
4-23 (Hint): Let I= event of having interior flaw, C= event of having casing flaw
Given: P(I)= 0.01, P(C)=0.008, P(I C)=0.005
Required: P(at least one flaw)= P(I or C)= P(I)+ P(C)- P(I C)
Exercises 4.5 (page 182):
4-24: (Hint): Probabilities are obvious considering that the probability of a boy and that of a girl and equal and the events are
independent.
4-25: (Hint):

Let (x,y) = event that the first roll gives x and second gives y.
a) P(7 on first and 11 on second)=P(7,11)=P(7) xP(11) (because events are independent)
b) P(Total of 21 on first two rolls combined) =P(12, 9)+P(9,12) +P(10,11)+P(11,10)
c) P(Total of 6 on first three rolls)= P(2,2,2)
4-26: (Hint) : Since draws are made with replacement, the events are independent. Similar to 4-25

4-27: (Hint): Let Ej (j= 1,2,3)= event of losing in jth game.

Then
a) Required probability = P( E1c E 22 ) P( E1c ).P( E 2c | E1c )
b) Required Probability =
4-28 (Hint):

P( E1c E 22 E 3c ) P( E1c ).P( E 2c | E1c ).P( E 3c | E1c E 22 )

A= event that Inspector A passes a restaurant with HCV.

B= event that Inspector B passes a restaurant with HCV
Given: P(A)=0.02, P(B)= 0.07, A and B are independent.

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a) P(A|B)= P(A) b) P(B|A)=P(B) c) P(AB)=P(A).P(B)

4-29(Complete Solution): Let Ej= event that jth floodgate being out of order; given P(Ej)=0.04 and Ej are independent.
a) P(E2E3|E1) = P(E2E3)= P(E2).P(E3) =0.04x0.04=0.0016
b) P(E1E2E3E4)= P(E1) P(E2) P(E3) P(E4)= (0.04)4 = 0.00000256= 1in 390625
Therefore the given estimate in an underestimate of the probability and is not true.
4-30 (Hint): This problem is similar to 4-29.
4-32: Similar to 4-29
Exercises 4.6 (Page 190)
4-35: (Complete Solution): P(A|B)=P(A) implies that A and B are independent so P(B|A) must be equal to P(B), which is not so.
Therefore the probability assignment is not consistent.
4-36: (Complete Solution): From the given information, we can prepare the following table of joint and marginal probability.
Alcoholic(A)
Non-Alcoholic(Ac)
Total
Male (M)
0.21
0.38
0.59
Female (F)
0.11
0.30
0.41
Total
0.32
0.68
1
P(A|M)= P(AM) / P(M)= 0.21/0.59 =0.356
4-37: Similar to 4-36
4-38: (Hint):

A= event that a hurricane forms in the eastern half of GOM.

B= Event that hurricane strike western coast of Florida.
Given: P(A)= 0.85, P(B|A)=0.76
a) Calculate P(AB)
b) new value of P(B|A)= 0.75x0.76 (reduced by one fourth) recalculate P(AB)
Notice the phrase 'reduced by one fourth' and if it were 'reduced to one fourth' the new value of P(B|A)=0.25x0.76
4-39 (Complete solution for a, Hint for b and c)
Let L= event that Litre corporation will be awarded the contract
I= event that there is an investigation
W= event that WTR finish its research.
Given that I and W are independent events.
a) P(W)= 0.80 Suppose x=P(I) then we have to calculate x such that P(L)0.65, To calculate the P(L) we prepare the following table.
Event
P(Event)
P(L|Event)#
P(L and Event)
I and W
0.8x
0.58
0.464x
Ic and W
0.8(1-x)
0.67
0.536(1-x)
I and Wc
0.2x
0.72
0.144x
Ic and Wc
0.2(1-x)
0.85
0.17(1-x)
Total
P(L)=0.706-0.098x
#: given in the question.
Now, 0.706-0.098x 0.65
Implies x 0.5714
b) Given P(I)=0.7 suppose y = P(W) then we have to calculate y such that P(L) 0.65. Follow same method as in part (a)
c) P(I)=0.75, P(W)=0.85, P(L)=?
Event
I and W
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P(Event)
0.6375

P(L|Event)#
0.58

P(L and Event)

0.36975

Ic and W
I and Wc
Ic and Wc
Total
#: given in the question.

0.2125
0.1125
0.0375

0.67
0.72
0.85

0.142375
0.081
0.031875
P(L)=0.625

The problems 4-40, 4-41 and 4-42 are similar to previously done problems, students are requested to ponder over and solve.
Exercises 4.7 (Page 198)
4-43: (Hint) The first part of problem is done by using Bayes' rule.
Event
P(Event)
P(X|Event)
P( X Event) P(Event|X)
A
0.2
0.75
0.15
0.25
B
0.65
0.6
0.39
0.65
C
0.15
0.4
0.06
0.1
Total
1
P(X) =0.6
.
The straightforward answer for P(Y)= 1- P(X)= 0.4 but if it is asked independently in the examination, you should be able to notice the
relation P(Y|A) =1- P(X|A) and calculate P(Y) as in the following table.
Event
P(Event)
P(Y|Event)
P( Y Event)
A
0.2
0.25
0.05
B
0.65
0.4
0.26
C
0.15
0.6
0.09
Total
1
P(Y) =0.4
4-44(Complete Solution)
Let A = event that a payment is received.
Elementary Events (Ej)
E1=Called on personally
E2=phoned
E3=sent a letter
Total

P(Ej)
0.7
0.2
0.1
1

4-45(Hint) Let A = event of getting a favorable ruling

Elementary Events (Ej)
E1=Court Challenge made at Atlanta
E2= Court Challenge made at Baltimore
E3= Court Challenge made at Cleveland
Total

P(A|Ej)
0.75
0.6
0.65

P(Ej)
0.4
0.35
0.25
1

P( AEj)
0.525
0.12
0.065
P(A)=0.71
P(A|Ej)
0.45
0.60
0.35

4-46(Hint): A= event of picnic being cancelled.(there is a thunderstorm)

Elementary Events (Ej)
P(Ej)
P(A|Ej)
E1=Dry conditions
E2= moist Condition
E3= wet Condition
Total
1
4-50: (Hint)
Suppose
E1= unemployment rises by 2% or more
E2= unemployment changes by less than 2%
E3= unemployment falls by 2% or more

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P(Ej|A)
0.74
0.17
0.09
1

P( AEj)

P(Ej|A)

P(A)=

P( AEj)

P(Ej|A)

P(A)=

U= event of losing more than 10 seats

V= event of losing 6-10 seats
W= event of gaining or losing 5 or fewer seats
X= event of gaining 6-10 seats
Y= event of gaining more that 10 seats

From the given data we have the following table.

Event
P(Event)
P(U | Event)
P(V | Event)
E1
0.25
0.25
0.35
E2
0.45
0.1
0.1
E3
0.3
0.05
0.1
Now the problem becomes straightforward. (See also 4-51)

P(W | Event)
0.15
0.15
0.1

P(X | Event)
0.15
0.35
0.4

P(Y | Event)
0.15
0.3
0.35

4-51(Complete Solution)
E1= event of film being a Hit.
E2= event of film being moderately successful
E3= event of film being a flop.
U= receive a rating 7 or higher than 7
V= receive a rating 4,5, 6
W= receive a rating 3 or lower
From the given data we have following table,
Event
E1
E2
E3

P(Event)
0.6
0.25
0.15

P(U | Event)
0.6
0.3
0.15

P(V | Event)
0.30
0.45
0.35

P(W | Event)
0.10
0.25
0.5

a) Here we require P(E1|V) which is calculated using Bayes' rule in the following table.
Event
P(Event)
P(V | Event)
P(V and Event)
P(Event|V)
E1
0.6
0.30
0.18
0.5217
E2
0.25
0.45
0.1125
E3
0.15
0.35
0.525
Total
P(V)=0.345
b) Here we require P(E3| V1W2) which is calculated using Bayes' rule in the following table.
Event
P(Event)
P(V1W2 | Event)#
P(V1W2 and Event)
P(Event| V1W2)
E1
0.6
0.03
0.018
E2
0.25
0.1125
0.028125
E3
0.15
0.175
0.02625
0.3627
Total
P(V1W2)=0.072375
# because P(V1W2 | Event)= P(V1| Event) P (W2 | Event) as V and W are independent, the suffixes attached with V and W indicates the
first and second screening of that movie.
Review and Application Exercises (Page 205)
4-63:(Complete Solution):
a) The given probabilities represent the relative frequency estimates.
b) P(mistake in address)=P(E1)=0.013
P(lost or destroyed)=P(E2)=0.028
P(mailed to moved person)=0.19
P(moved person leaving a forwarding address)=0.48
P(moved person not leaving a forwarding address)=1-0.48=0.52
Suppose E3= event that the mail is sent to person not leaving the forwarding address.
P(E3)=P(mailed to moved person)xP(moved person not leaving a forwarding address)
=0.19x0.52= 0.0988
P(mail delivered)= P(none of E1, E2, E3 happen) =P(E1 cE2cE3c)
(1-0.013)x(1-0.028)x(1-0.0988)=0.8645

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P(getting reply)= P(mail delivered and recipient reply)= P(mail delivered)xP(recipient reply | mail delivered)
=0.8645x0.15= 0.13
4-65(Hint) An additional assumption to be made is that the event of requiring X-ray and 'having insurance' are independent events.
P(require X-ray and had insurance)=P(require X-ray)xP(had insurance)=0.23X0.72=0.1656
4-66(Complete Solution):
The table of joint and marginal probabilities of different events of the two flight timings is given below.
Flight 200
B1=10m early
B2=5m early
B3=being on time
Flight 100
P(B1)=0.01
P(B2)=0.02
P(B3)=0.97
A1=On time
0.95x0.01=0.0095
0.019
0.9215
P(A1)=0.95
A2=5m late
0.0003
0.0006
0.0388
P(A2)=0.03
A3=10m late
0.0002
0.0004
0.0194
P(A3)=0.02
a) P(aircraft's collision)=P(A1B1)+P(A2B2)+P(A3B3)=0.0095+0.0006+0.0194 =0.0295
Which is greater than 0.025, so she must divert one of the two airplanes.
b) If she finds Flight 100 to be definitely 5 minutes late then,
P(Collision | Flight 100 be 5 m late)=0.02, which is less than 0.025 so diversion not required.
c) P(collision | Flight 200 five minutes early)=0.03, Which is greater than 0.025 so she must divert one of the two planes.
4-71(Complete Solution):
Suppose E1=Event that consumer sales increases by 50% on a given year
E2= Event that a major government contract is obtained.
Also given that P(E1E2)=0
The information on probabilities given is demonstrated in the following table.
Event
Probability
In 1st year
In 2nd year
In 3rd year
E1
0.05
0.08
0.12
E2
0.08
0.15
0.25

In 4th year
0.16
0.32

a) P(plant will expand within next year)= P(E1) +P(E2)= 0.13

b) P(plant will expand in year 2)= same as above
4-73 (Hint): Let A= packages being lost
E1= package sent by truck, E2= package sent by rail
Use Bayes' rule.
4-78:(Hint)
# of Boxes

No of boxes with
Damaged Fruit
200
365
565

Overripe fruit
Ecuadorian
6000
840
Honduran
4000
295
Total
10000
1135
a) P(Damaged Fruit)=565/10000, P(Overripe Fruit)= 1135/10000
b)P(Honduran Box)=4000/10000, P(Ecuadorian Box)=6000/10000
c) P(Honduran |Overripe)= P(Honduran and Overripe)/P(overripe)
d) if the two event are mutually exclusive then, P(Damaged or overripe)= P(Damaged)+P(Overripe)
Note that if they are not mutually exclusive, we can not calculate this probability because we have no information on P(damaged and
overripe).
4-79(Hint)
Aj= event of receiving a job offer on jth interview
P(Aj)=0.07 and Aj are independent.
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a) P(none of A1, A2, A3) happens.

b) 1- P(none of A1 to A9 happens)
c) P(not A1, Not A2, A3, not A4, A5)
4-82 (Complete Solution):
Step 1: Calculation of Probability of Dying for an Vaccinated person P(D|V)
D= event of dying
Event
P(Ej)
P(D |Ej)
Show symptoms (E1)
0.02
0.03
Do not Show symptoms (E2)
0.98
0.0005
Total
1

P (D and Ej)
0.0006
0.00049
P(D|V)= 0.0011

Step 2:
P(D|Vc)= P(un-vaccinated person die) = P(acquire disease and die)
= P(acquiring disease) P(die | acquire disease) = 0.30x0.04 = 0.012
Step 3: Calculation of Probability of randomly selected person dying
Event
Vaccinated (V)
Not-vaccinated (Vc)
Total

P(Event)
0.25
0.75
1

P(D |Event)
0.0011
0.012

P (D and Event)
0.000275
0.009
P(D)= 0.009275

4-86:(Complete Solution)
a) P(either engine failing)=6/50000+6/50000
b) P(another engine fail | first engine fails)= P(another engine fail)= 6/50000 because of independence of events
c) P(both failing)= (6/50000)2

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