After deal, North and South Korea try to work

together but for how long?

So
uth Korean soldiers patrol along the coast of the western island of Yeonpyeong, South
Korea, which borders North Korea, early Aug. 26, 2015. The South Korean military has
reduced its military alert position since North Korea lifted the quasi-war state of its
armed forces following the two Koreas' agreement the previous day on defusing
tensions after four days of intensive inter-Korean talks. EPA/YONHAP (Yonhap/EPA)

By Anna Fifield-August 26

SEOUL When you have an alcoholic in the family, South Korean President Park
Geun-hye recently told advisers, you can hide all the bottles and take him to rehab.
But you cant make him quit until he is ready to quit.
Here, the alcoholic in the family is Kim Jong Un.
With this weeks agreement to defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Park is trying
to help her North Korean counterpart beat what analysts describe as his addiction to
an endless cycle of behaving badly, then insisting on being rewarded to stop
whether with heavy fuel oil from the United States during past nuclear talks or
truckloads of rice and fertilizer from his estranged cousins to the south.
North Koreas provocations have become bolder because the world is used to their
belligerence, so they need to create higher tensions to get more attention, said Lim
Eul-chul, director of research at Kyungnam Universitys Institute of Far Eastern Studies

in Seoul. Its like your body becoming more tolerant to the same dose of medicine.
For that reason, South Korea needs to try to break the chain of provocation and
agreement, Lim said.

South Korean National Security

Adviser Kim Kwan-jin (R) shakes hands with Hwang Pyong-so, the top military aide to
the North's leader Kim Jong Un, after inter-Korean high-level talks at the truce village
of Panmunjom inside the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas, in this picture
provided by the Unification Ministry and released by Yonhap on Aug. 25, 2015. North
and South Korea reached agreement early Tuesday to end a standoff involving an
exchange of artillery fire that had pushed the divided peninsula into a state of
heightened military tension. REUTERS/the Unification Ministry/Yonhap
(Yonhap/Reuters)
At first glance, the deal reached in the early hours of Tuesday after three days of
marathon talks would appear to do that.
After several weeks of steadily increasing tensions, which included moving North
Korean forces into combat-ready positions, Pyongyang expressed regret for a land
mine attack that seriously injured two South Korean soldiers this month.
In return, Seoul switched off speakers on the border that had been blaring messages
into the North calling Kim Jong Uns regime incompetent, although it did not
dismantle the speakers as originally demanded. The South said it would not resume
the broadcasts unless an abnormal case occurs.
But North Korea did not get any of the material inducements that usually accompany
such deals, and it did not ask for any, a senior government official said Wednesday on
the customary condition of anonymity.
Seoul did, however, signal that it was open to lifting sanctions imposed on the North
after the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan naval corvette, while killed 46 South Korean
sailors. Pyongyang has refused to admit responsibility or to apologize for that attack.
Those sanctions are an issue that could totally be handled through dialogue during
talks resulting from this weeks deal, Jeong Joon-hee, a spokesman for the Souths

Unification Ministry, told reporters on Wednesday.

All inter-Korean trade and aid projects other than humanitarian assistance have been
suspended because of the sanctions, sharply curtailing the economic links between
the neighbors.

South Korean President Park GeunHye speaks during a ceremony to celebrate the completion of the SK HYNIX Inc. in
Icheon, South Korea, Aug. 25, 2015. EPA/KIM MIN-HEE/POOL (Kim MinHee/Pool/EPA)
[North Korea says its not interested in an Iran-style nuclear deal]
On both sides, an effort is now underway to spin the deal in their favor.
A briefing Wednesday for foreign reporters in Seoul felt like a grammar lesson the
agreement was meaningful, the government official said, because the sentences had
subjects and objects. Previously, it was not clear that North Korea was expressing
regret to South Korea, he said.
Never mind that Pyongyang merely expressed regret, rather than issuing the apology
that the South had demanded, because we believe that the North Korean side made
an acknowledgment and an apology for the recent provocations, he said.
In North Korea, the deal was being explained in a rather different way.
The South must have learned a serious lesson that it will bring an armed clash if it
creates a groundless case and provokes the other side, Hwang Pyong So, director of
the general political bureau of the North Korean army and one of the two Northern
representatives at the talks, said on the Norths Korean Central Television.
The real question is what happens next. Can Park maintain what she calls her firm
principles and continue with her policy of trustpolitik, and can North Korea break its
addiction to reward?
Analysts expect the next month at least to be quiet. The two sides have agreed to hold
another round of reunions at the end of September for families separated during the
Korean War.

But what happens in October is anyones guess.

When more substantive discussions on generally improving relations convene,
analysts here say North Korea is likely to present its usual shopping list of things it
needs to continue the talks.
In addition, North Korea on Oct. 10 will celebrate the 70th anniversary of the
foundation of its ruling communist Workers Party. Many analysts expect Pyongyang to
mark the occasion with a show of military might, perhaps even by testing an
intercontinental ballistic missile.
Seoul is declining to say whether that would constitute an abnormal provocation.
Long-range rockets are always a provocation, but whether this is a normal or
abnormal situation, this is something we should consider in the context of the time,
the senior government official said.
There has been at least one immediate winner: Park Geun-hye. The deal, reached at
precisely the half-way point of Parks five-year term, could hardly have come at a
better moment for the president, who has appeared to lurch from crisis to crisis and
has not been able to establish any sort of legacy.
She has shown she can be firm with North Korea, said Choi Kang of the Asan
Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. I think she managed the whole situation well, and
public opinion has been very supportive.
Inter-Korean relations are now at their best since Parks conservative predecessor
took office seven years ago, and South Koreans feel better for it.
Parks approval ratings have risen above 40 percent for the first time in months. Six
out of 10 South Koreans surveyed by Realmeter, a pollster, said this week that they
supported the deal.
Yoonjung Seo contributed to this report.
Read more:
S. Korea agrees to end broadcasts as North expresses regret for provocations
North Korea threatens action in South Korea over anti-Pyongyang broadcasts
North Korea is stepping up uranium production but for power or nukes?

Anna Fifield is The Posts bureau chief in Tokyo, focusing on Japan and the Koreas.
She previously reported for the Financial Times from Washington DC, Seoul, Sydney,

London and from across the Middle East.

Posted by Thavam