Trip generation

Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step transportation

forecasting process (followed by trip distribution, mode choice, and route
assignment), widely used for forecasting travel demands. It predicts the number
of trips originating in or destined for a particular traffic analysis zone.
Typically, trip generation analysis focuses on residences, and residential trip
generation is thought of as a function of the social and economic attributes of
households. At the level of the traffic analysis zone, residential land uses
"produce" or generate trips. Traffic analysis zones are also destinations of trips,
trip attractors. The analysis of attractors focuses on non-residential land uses.
Trip generation is a model of the number of trips that originate and end in each
zone for a given jurisdiction. Given a set of N destination zones and M origin
zones (which include all the destination zones and, possibly, zones from adjacent
jurisdictions), separate models are produced of the number of crimes originating
and ending in each of these zones. That is, a separate model is produced of the
number of crimes originating in each of the M origin zones, and another model is
produced of the number of crimes ending in each of the N destination zones.
The first is a crime production model while the second is a crime attraction
model.
Two points should be emphasized. First, the models are predictive. That is, the
result of the models are a prediction of both the number of crime trips originating
in each zone and the number of crime trips ending in each zone (i.e., crimes
occurring in a zone). Because the models are a prediction, there is always error
between the actual number and that predicted. As long as the error is not too
large, the model can be a useful tool for both analyzing the correlates of crime as
well as being useful for forecasting or for simulating policy interventions.
Second, because the number of crimes attracted to the study jurisdiction will
usually be greater than the number of crimes predicted for the origin zones, due
primarily to crime trips coming from outside the origin areas, it is necessary to
balance the productions and attractions. This is done in two steps. One, an
estimate of trips coming from outside the study area (external trips) is added to
the predicted origins as an external zone. Two, a statistical adjustment is done
in order to ensure that the total number of origins equals the total number of
destinations. This is called balancing and is essential as an input into the second
stage of crime travel demand modelling - trip distribution.
In the following discussion, first, the logic behind trip generation modelling is
presented, including the calibration of a model, the addition of external trips in
making a model, and the balancing of predicted origins and predicted
destinations. Second, the mechanics of conducting the trip generation model
with CrimeStat is discussed and illustrated with data from Baltimore County.

Trip Distribution
Trip distribution (or destination choice or zonal interchange analysis), is the
second component (after trip generation, but before mode choice and route
assignment) in the traditional four-step transportation forecasting model. This

step matches trip makers origins and destinations to develop a trip table, a
matrix that displays the number of trips going from each origin to each
destination. Historically, this component has been the least developed
component of the transportation planning model.

Modal split
A modal share (also called mode split, mode-share, or modal split) is the
percentage of travellers using a particular type of transportation or number of
trips using said type. In freight transportation, this may be measured in mass.
Modal share is an important component in developing sustainable transport
within a city or region. In recent years, many cities have set modal share targets
for balanced and sustainable transport modes, particularly 30% of non-motorized
(cycling and walking) and 30% of public transport. These goals reflect a desire
for a modal shift, or a change between modes, and usually encompasses an
increase in the proportion of trips made using sustainable modes

Traffic Assignment
Route assignment, route choice, or traffic assignment concerns the selection of
routes (alternative called paths) between origins and destinations in
transportation networks. It is the fourth step in the conventional transportation
forecasting model, following trip generation, trip distribution, and mode choice.
The zonal interchange analysis of trip distribution provides origin-destination trip
tables. Mode choice analysis tells which travellers will use which mode. To
determine facility needs and costs and benefits, we need to know the number of
travellers on each route and link of the network (a route is simply a chain of links
between an origin and destination). We need to undertake traffic (or trip)
assignment. Suppose there is a network of highways and transit systems and a
proposed addition. We first want to know the present pattern of traffic delay and
then what would happen if the addition were made.