IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

Socio-Technical Analysis
Before exploring some of the technology predictions of the past and present, we would like to
provide an overview of the implications of our thesis and the significance of our chosen topic.
We will outline our points using the socio-technical analysis included below.

The Issue
The topic is science fiction and its ability to predict the existence and social consequences of
future technologies. The issue is just how seriously we should take these forward-looking novels,
films, comics and various other forms of media. Our group proposes that we, as a society,
consider these fictions not as absolute truths, but as fairly accurate indicators of circumstances to
come. As we will demonstrate later in the paper, science fiction has proven itself on several
occasions to be remarkably accurate. By having the sense to utilize this foresight, considering the
possibilities of future technologies and society’s reactions to them, we can anticipate problems
and possibly prevent them from occurring at all. For this reason, we see the devotion of time and
effort to "researching" science fiction's take on futuristic technologies as a valid investment.

Socio-Technical and Systemic Nature of the Issue

It is inevitable that practically all people will feel the impacts of technologies that were
envisioned long before their creation. In our increasingly high-tech world, many experience the
technologies directly, but everybody will be touched by the social reactions surrounding
innovations. Whether its context is one of medicine, transportation, business, entertainment,
communication, warfare, art, or convenience, technology's societal effects are inescapable. So,
the issue of science fiction influencing technology-related decisions is relevant to all.

Technology in Question
The projections of science fiction are, by no means, limited. Robots, web servers, prosthetic
limbs, holograms, genetic therapy, jet packs, weather control, and teleportation are just a few of
the popular ones. As mentioned in the previous sub-section, science fiction makes predictions in
every major categorization of technologies. Anything is fair game.

Information in Question
The information relevant to our issue can be classified as either technological or societal. The
former refers to the science behind the device. How does the author justify the functionality of
the device? How exactly does it work? These explanations may be founded on up-and-coming
physics or technologies of the fiction's time, or the mechanics could be completely unrealistic as
far as science is concerned. Regardless of the technological information's credibility, it could
serve as inspiration for real-life possibilities.

The second classification of relevant information focuses more on context. If this technology is
made available, how would people use it? What potential does it have, both good and bad? Will
it bring people together or isolate them? Can everybody have one? Will laws and regulation be
necessary? Societal information may be even more valuable than technological information.
Rather than sparking ideas, it can depict outcomes. Maybe a technology really isn't worth
pursuing, or perhaps a seemingly insignificant advancement may have the previously unrealized
potential to bring about great change. Foresight is an incredibly powerful tool.
 IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

Major Stakeholders
Everybody is affected by the technologies that may or may not become reality, so really, we are
all stakeholders. Some of us, however, do carry more weight - those who are influenced by
science fiction's predictions and have the ability to shape the world in which we live. These
individuals may be scientists, engineers, lawmakers, professors, or venture capitalists, but
anyone who plays a significant role in the development, funding, or popularization of
technologies could be considered a major stakeholder. These are the people who have the power
to bring about change.

Potential Outcomes
Adopting science fiction as a legitimate resource for technological prediction could have several
different outcomes. The fiction could be completely inaccurate - the technologies may never
become reality, and the time spent analyzing the fictional material will have gone to waste. We
find this scenario very unlikely, and we do not believe that the thorough evaluation of potential
technologies and their contexts would ever be entirely worthless. At the very least, we would
gain knowledge about human nature and social reactions to comparable innovations.
Nevertheless, it is a possibility that studying science fiction could yield no significant benefits.

On the other hand, the fiction's predictions could be extremely accurate. We foresee technologies
years in advance and can approach them with a wiser and more informed perspective. Potential
crises are avoided, and the rate of development and implementation is drastically increased. In
fact, the fiction may actually be responsible for the development of a technology in the first place.
We could rise to levels of technological advancement that would never be reached without the
influence of science fiction (although some of our more technologically deterministic interview
subjects beg to differ). This may or may not be desirable.

Yet another possibility is that we simply run out of technology-predicting science fiction at some
point. As suggested by the article "Where Has All the Sci-Fi Gone?" (Our Future Thoughts,
2008), it is becoming more and more difficult for writers to make incredibly futuristic claims.
Because information technology grows at an exponential rate (Kurzweil, 2001), the more we
advance, the harder it becomes for writers/futurists to keep pace. To add insult to their injury, we
(the audience) have become accustomed to this accelerated rate of development, so the bar for
shocking/impressing/inspiring us has also risen. At some point, technology may develop faster
than fiction can predict.

Empowering Technology to Change Social Life

Science fiction has the power to inspire technologies that may have never existed, and it can
conjure the support necessary to develop and fund potential technologies. But fiction is
conceptualized, communicated, absorbed, and utilized by humans. We are involved in every step
of the process and at any point can say, "no". Science fiction certainly has the ability to set
technologies in motion, but without the continued support of humans, technology would be
powerless (at least until the point of singularity, which will be discussed later in the paper).

Empowering Humans to Change Technology

We feel that this is much more appropriate than the idea of empowering technology. Utilizing
science fiction's predictions allows us to plan for and manage future technologies. We have the
 IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

foresight to ensure that technology does not become powerful beyond control. We can envision
the technology's role in society and choose to endorse or reject what we see. Science fiction
gives us the power to change the course of technology before it becomes too late.

Winners and Losers

The use of science fiction to predict future technologies is beneficial to society and presumably
everyone in it. Humans can make the best of what technology has to offer and attempt to avoid
unwanted consequences. The only losers would be companies and individuals who waste time
and resources pursuing technologies that can/will never become reality.

Unintended Effects
The most significant and probable "unintended effect" we can imagine is that certain
technologies, which in reality may have been hugely beneficial to society, will be avoided
because of disagreeable predictions described in works of fiction. This could also work the other
way. We may aspire to create technologies because of an appealing fictional description, but in
reality the technology is more detrimental to society than helpful. Overlooking fundamental
flaws in authors' logics could mislead us, and there may be unanticipated variables that throw off
predictions entirely. These are risks we must be aware of.

Acceptability
We (and some of our interview subjects) believe that many individuals and organizations are
already adopting science fiction as a legitimate source of technological and social prediction.
Research and development divisions, in particular, could find these inspiration goldmines
incredibly valuable, and there is nothing to lose (but time) by exploring the possibilities.

Professional Support of Thesis

In addition to our own personal thoughts and research on the topic, we sought the insight of
scholars and professionals who specialize in particularly relevant fields of technology. We have
produced four successful interviews via e-mail. Below are the questions asked and the responses
provided by each subject.

Dr. Massimiliano Vasile, Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Glasgow

• Throughout your lifetime/career, have you witnessed technologies, which were originally
conceived in some form of science fiction, become reality?

o Precisely as you see them in science fiction no.

• Do you feel that science fiction has played a significant role in the development of these
technologies? Had the concepts never existed in fiction, would we still have the technologies
today?

o On top of what I said before, science was often inspired by new discoveries in
science. For example, the whole theory of relativity inspired many science fiction
 IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

writers. Therefore, I would say that science fiction helped a lot in promoting
science. Most likely we would not have had people passionately working on some
very exotic concepts if they had not spent their childhood watching science fiction
movies. I am among them. But, can we say that we would have not reached the
Moon without Jules Verne? No, we would have reached the Moon anyway.

• Do you believe that we should study/research science fiction technologies, exploring their real-
life potential?

o Oh yes for sure. As I said, science fiction is expressing our dreams in a very
colorful way and is constantly reminding us that we should not just think of the
economic return. Too often we discard our dreams because not practical but many
times in the history of mankind things that were not practical have become so
thank to people who pursued their dreams.

• Would you say, even if you feel science fiction is not worth studying, that it is reasonable to
assume that many of the technologies we read about in today's fiction will resemble actual
technologies in the future?

o Yes.

• In your field of study, are there any predictions that you hope/believe will exist within the next
century?

o Definitively a better more fair society. Apart from that, as an aerospace engineer I
would like to see warp drives, space ships, long distance space travels and human
hibernation, terraforming and space colonization. But also, advanced genetic
engineering for curing disease and extending our life.

• Are there any science fiction predictions or technologies that you find completely absurd,
feeling certain that they will never become reality?

o As a general idea no. Of course looking at the more specific technical details there
are many things that are not reasonable or consistent.

Dr. Gary An, Professor of Surgery, Northwestern University | Faculty Member of the
McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine (Pittsburgh)

• Throughout your lifetime/career, have you witnessed technologies, which were originally
conceived in some form of science fiction, become reality?

o Sure: Communicators from Star Trek are today's cellphones, personal computers,
voice activated equipment, virtual reality, cyberspace
 IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

• Do you feel that science fiction has played a significant role in the development of these
technologies? Had the concepts never existed in fiction, would we still have the technologies
today?

o It is possible, but I think not likely. Invention is a function of imagination, and

sci-fi provides as medium by which imagination becomes disseminated and, to a
great degree, provides the "seeds" for discovery.

• Do you believe that we should study/research science fiction technologies, exploring their real-
life potential?

o I think people/companies do this all the time, to find the next big thing.

• Would you say, even if you feel science fiction is not worth studying, that it is reasonable to
assume that many of the technologies we read about in today's fiction will resemble actual
technologies in the future?

o I think there are some constraints on what is possible, but in terms of the "near
future" genre of sci-fi, yes, I think a fair amount of it will come to be in some
recognizable way.

• In your field of study, are there any predictions that you hope/believe will exist within the next
century?

o I think personalized medicine is not too far away, tailoring genetic therapy. I think
synthetic organs will be developed, as well as nano-technology with respect to
cybernetic "parasites/symbiotes."

• Are there any science fiction predictions or technologies that you find completely absurd,
feeling certain that they will never become reality?

o I think time travel (in the sci-fi sense) is impossible by the laws of physics. I have
my doubts about faster than light travel. The transporter from "Star Trek" is, I
think, impossible as well.
 IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

Future Technologies and Applications of Thesis

As we have reiterated and supported throughout this paper,

Science fiction is an accurate predictor of future technologies and their social implications. We
believe that this genre of art (science fiction) should be recognized as a legitimate resource and
utilized in decision-making processes involving upcoming technologies and their contexts.

We have supported our thesis analytically, historically, and through the thoughts of seasoned
scholars and professionals who specialize in relevant fields of technology. We feel that our
arguments are sound and that our theory is justified. The question now is, "What specific
applications might science fiction have for predicting and planning for technologies of today’s
future?” The answer is, well, long. Here are just a few examples of predictions that we may
expect to be seeing within the duration of our lifetimes, made by the likes of Brian Aldiss, James
Blish, D.G. Compton, Hugo Gernsback, Joe Haldeman, Robert A. Heinlein, Jules Verne and H.G.
Wells (Trivia-Library, 2004):

• Automatic clothes-making machines, which obtain the user's measurements and

produce on the spot
• Gene therapy as preventive medicine
• Weather control
• Temperature-controlled couches
• Moving conveyor roadways
• DNA repair/replacement
• Sound bombs
• Electromagnetic tube elevators, no cables
• Elimination of language barriers, Computers that translate 10 languages
simultaneously
• Accelerated learning, computers hook directly into students' minds
• Suspended animation for extended spaceflight
• The Cosmiflyer, a 6-in. cosmic power generator strapped to one's back, is used for short-
distance aerial transit
• Infinite food supply, accomplished by the expansion of vegetable cells via sound waves
• Thought recorders
• Nuclear satellite bombs
• Iridium wire spirals at street corners, having the ability to change night into day
instantly
• Ultrahigh-frequency electronic baths to remove dirt and other foreign particles from
the human body
• Underwater air guns using glass electric shells that shock their prey
• The "stasis field", a special kind of force field, renders all radiation, electricity, light,
and magnetism inert (including the atom bomb) and makes conventional weapons
obsolete
• Manipulation of matter at the atomic scale, combining elements to build custom
molecules and providing the world with new materials and medicines
• Electronic glass pane air-conditioning units
 IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

• Wireless and synthesized 3D viewers, allowing individuals to interact and conduct

business with people not really there (but seem to be)
• Anti-crime devices, which render felons rigid and helpless for 15 minutes
• Faster-than-light spaceships
• Laser weapons
• 3D tape recorders
• Total absorption of radar waves, a radar cloaking device
• Regenerating limbs and organs
• Commercial rocket travel
• Permanent settlements on the moon
• Singularity

While we presume that some of these concepts will take decades to become reality (weather
control, commercial rocket travel, iridium wire spirals that turn night into day), several hardly
seem unrealistic within the next year or two (automatic clothes-making machines, gene therapy,
sound bombs). In any case, there is certainly no shortage of interesting technologies to choose
for discussion. However, the concept that we find to be most intriguing (and perhaps most
important) is that of singularity, so we will expound upon that.

To define singularity, we will borrow from the vast collection of knowledge that is Wikipedia:

The technological singularity is a hypothesized point in the future variously characterized

by the technological creation of self-improving intelligence, unprecedentedly rapid
technological progress, or some combination of the two. Statistician I. J. Good first wrote
of an "intelligence explosion", suggesting that if machines could even slightly surpass
human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unseen by their designers,
and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences. Vernor Vinge later
called this event "the Singularity" as an analogy between the breakdown of modern
physics near a gravitational singularity and the drastic change in society he argues would
occur following an intelligence explosion.

Essentially, singularity is the point where we (humans) lose control. Machines' intelligence will
surpass ours, and the intellectual distance between us and them will grow exponentially (or
faster). Raymond Kurzweil, renowned inventor, futurist, and quite possibly the most significant
contributor to the topic of singularity, estimates that this momentous point in history will occur
during the 2040's (Darwinian Remiix, 2008). This is when the shift in power occurs, when
machines will surpass us. At first, the rate of their development will be relatively slow, but
within a few years, progress will be so rapid that it will be unfathomable to humans. Machines
will run the world, and humans will be incapable of even attempting to keep pace. When it
comes time for the machines to decide the fate of the universe - 3,000 AD or sooner (Darwinian
Remiix, 2008) - we will be at their mercy.

This prediction may sound far-fetched and unbelievably near in the future (less than 40 years
away), but Kurzweil has a respectable track record. He has accurately forecasted happenings
such as the emergence of the internet and the taking of the world chess championship by a
computer, and he has received numerous prestigious honors like the National Medal of
 IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

Technology, the Dickson Prize, the Grace Murray Hopper Award, MIT’s Inventor of the Year,
and seven national and international film awards (Speakers Associates, 2007). Even if they take a
few extra years to become reality, we believe that Kurzweil’s predictions will (if we allow them
to) most definitely be realized at some point in the future.

The question we must ask ourselves is whether this is something we want. Kurzweil predicts that
the machines will be benevolent and have no reason to do us harm, but there is no guarantee. Do
we want to take that chance? Are the benefits (technologies of immeasurable complexity,
freedom from work, education, and any other undesirable activity imaginable, the potential for
immortality, just to name a few) worth the risk of our extinction? Should the machines of the
post 2040’s world want us terminated for any reason, we would be completely defenseless. Do
we want to trust the “consciences” of these super-beings (Will they be considered living
organisms? If so, when and why?) that we could be making possible? Can we somehow control
their “morals”, perhaps placing restraints early on, making it impossible for them to ever create
anything that would do us harm? Or will they become smart enough to override that regardless of
how deeply it is embedded in them? But if they could, would they? What would they have to
gain? Then again, what reason would they have for allowing us or the universe to continue
existing?

These are big questions. Do we (the members of our group) have the answers? No. Does
anybody? Very unlikely. Are there any answers? Maybe. What we do have, thanks to science
fiction, is an idea of what might be in store for us. We have an awareness, and therefore, we have
the ability to shape the reality of our future. Rather than ignorantly marching forward, wherever
technology leads us, we can take the reigns and intelligently guide technology, doing the most
we can to ensure that we’re moving toward something good.