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The 2016 Endorsement Primary | FiveThirtyEight

TheEndorsementPrimary
ByAARONBYCOFFE

In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of

which candidates will succeed and which will fail. So were keeping track.
UP D AT E D 4: 17 P. M . ED T | OC T O BE R 2

REPRESENTATIVES
1 POINT EACH

CANDIDATE

TOTAL POINTS

35

Chris Christie

25

Mike Huckabee

24

Rand Paul

15

John Kasich

14

Ted Cruz

Lindsey Graham

Marco Rubio I N T E R A C T I V E

Scott Walker

Carly Fiorina

Rick Perry

Rick Santorum

Hillary Clinton

342
16

Martin O'Malley

Bush

GOVERNORS
10 POINTS EACH

Jeb Bush

Joe Biden

Candidate

SENATORS
5 POINTS EACH

Rep. Sen. Gov. Total pts

1 pt 5 pts 10 pts

20

35

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Christie

Huckabee4

Paul

10

Kasich

Cruz

Graham

25

24

15

14

Rubio

Walker

Fiorina

Perry

Santorum 1

Clinton

112 30

342

Biden

16

O'Malley 1

eforeanyvotesarecast,presidentialcandidatescompeteforthe
supportofinfluentialmembersoftheirparty,especiallyelected

officialslikeU.S.representatives,senatorsandgovernors.Duringtheperiod
knownastheinvisibleprimary,thesepartyelitesseektocoalesce
aroundthecandidatestheyfindmostacceptableastheirpartysnominee.
Overthepastfewdecades,whentheseeliteshavereachedaconsensuson
thebestcandidate,rank-and-filevotershaveusuallyfollowed.

LATESTENDORSEMENTS
9/28 Mike Huckabee endorsed by Rep. Bruce Westerman, R-Ark.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

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Mike Huckabee endorsed by Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Ark.
Mike Huckabee endorsed by Rep. French Hill, R-Ark.

+1

+1

All 2016 endorsements

Ofcourse,notallendorsementsareequallyvaluable.Weuseasimple
weightingsystem:10pointsforgovernors,5pointsforU.S.senatorsand1
pointforU.S.representatives(thereareroughlyfivetimesasmany
representativesassenatorsand10timesasmanyrepresentativesas
governors).

Current candidates, past nominees

Cumulative endorsement points of presidential nominees before they clinched and how the 2016 candidates compare.

600
POINTS

George W. Bush

600
POINTS

Dole'96

Gore'00
400

400

Bill Clinton'92
Hillary Clinton

Obama'08
McCain'08

Dukakis'88
Kerry'04 Mondale'84

George H.W. B
200

200

Jeb Bush
0
1 YEAR BEFORE IOWA

6 MONTHS

IOWA CAUCUSES

0
CONVENTIONS 1 YEAR BEFORE IOWA

6 MONTHS

IOWA CAUCUSES

CONVENTIO

InthebookThePartyDecides(2008),themostcomprehensivestudyof
theinvisibleprimary,thepoliticalscientistsMartyCohen,DavidKarol,
HansNoelandJohnZallerevaluateddataonendorsementsmadein
presidentialnominationcontestsbetween1980and2004andfoundthat
earlyendorsementsintheinvisibleprimaryarethemostimportantcause
ofcandidatesuccessinthestateprimariesandcaucuses.
Theseendorsementscanserveseveralpurposes.Insomecases,theydirectly
influencevoterswhotrustthejudgmentofgovernorsandmembersof
Congressfromtheirparty.Inothercases,endorsementsserveasasignalto
otherpartyelites.Ittellsotherswhoisacceptableandwhois
unacceptable,Cohen,anassociateprofessorofpoliticalscienceatJames
MadisonUniversity,saidinane-mailtoFiveThirtyEight.Thisisthe
coordinationprocessthatwebelievegoesonduringtheinvisibleprimary
andbywayofpublicendorsementsthatwasformerlyandmoreformally
undertakenattheconvention.
Whileeachelectioncycleisdifferent,nominationracessince1980have
fallenintotwobroadcategories.InsomeliketheRepublicancontestof
1996

andboththeDemocratic

andRepublican

racesof

2000partyelitesralliedaroundacandidatewellbeforetheIowa
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The 2016 Endorsement Primary | FiveThirtyEight

caucuses,andthesecandidateswentontowintheirnominationswith
relativeease.Inothers,liketheDemocraticcontestsof1988
2004

and

,therewaslessofanendorsementconsensus,withpartyofficials

takingmoreofawait-and-seeapproachuntilvotersweighedin.Partyelites
coalescedaroundacandidateonlyaftertheIowacaucusesandtheNew
Hampshireprimary.

The shapes of past endorsement primaries

Each candidates share of the races total endorsement points before the nomination was clinched.

SHOW THROUGH:
IOWA CAUCUSES

END OF CAMPAIGN

2012 Republican Primary

2008 Republican Primary

100%

2008 Democratic Primary

100%

100%

Romney

McCain
50

50

0
1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

2004 Democratic Primary

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

2000 Republican Primary

100%

Obama

50

IOWA

CONVENTION

2000 Democratic Primary

100%

100%

Gore

Bush
Kerry
50

50

0
1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

1996 Republican Primary

50

IOWA

1992 Democratic Primary

100%

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

CONVENTION

1988 Republican Primary

100%

100%

Dole

Clinton

Bush
50

50

0
1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

1988 Democratic Primary

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

50

IOWA

1984 Democratic Primary

100%

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

CONVENTION

1980 Republican Primary

100%

100%

Reagan
Mondale

Dukakis
50

50

0
1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

50

IOWA

0
CONVENTION 1 YEAR
BEFORE IOWA

IOWA

CONVENTION

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Endorsementsarentafoolproofpredictor.In2008

,moreDemocrats

initiallyendorsedHillaryClintonthanBarackObama(althoughObamahad
somesupport).Still,asteadyflowofendorsementsforObamaafterhisearly
successesinstateslikeIowaandSouthCarolinahelpedtosignalthathewas
anacceptablechoiceamongpartyelitesandpresagedhissuccessinother
states.
Inthe2016electioncycle,theDemocraticandRepublicanraceslookvery
different.HillaryClintonhadacommandingleadinendorsementseven
beforelaunchinghercampaigntoanextentthatsunprecedentedfora
non-incumbentDemocrat.ButRepublicaninsidershavebeenslowtorally
behindacandidate.
Ifyouseeanendorsementfromagovernor,U.S.senatororU.S.
representativethatwehaventincluded,pleaseemailus.While
endorsementsfromotherpartyelites,suchaslocalpartyofficialsinIowa
andNewHampshire,oftenmatteraswell,forthesakeofsimplicity,we
wontbefocusingonthemhere.

2016 endorsements
FiveThirtyEight has collected 227 endorsements so far, out of a possible total of approximately 585.
CANDIDATE

DATE

ENDORSER

POSITION

Hillary Clinton

9/17/15

Maggie Hassan

GOV. (D-N.H.)

PTS.

9/13

Ann Kuster

REP. (D-N.H.)

9/7

David Loebsack

REP. (D-IOWA)

9/7

Cheri Bustos

REP. (D-ILL.)

9/1

Zoe Lofgren

REP. (D-CALIF.)

8/31

Tammy Baldwin

SEN. (D-WIS.)

8/28

Timothy J. Walz

REP. (D-MINN.)

8/24

Bonnie Watson Coleman

REP. (D-N.J.)

8/24

Donald Payne Jr.

REP. (D-N.J.)

8/24

Bill Pascrell Jr.

REP. (D-N.J.)

8/24

John Garamendi

REP. (D-CALIF.)

8/18

Jim Himes

REP. (D-CONN.)

8/6

Xavier Becerra

REP. (D-CALIF.)

8/5

Scott Peters

REP. (D-CALIF.)

7/15

Lois Capps

REP. (D-CALIF.)

7/15

Marcia L. Fudge

REP. (D-OHIO)

7/14

Andr Carson

REP. (D-IND.)

7/13

Suzanne Bonamici

REP. (D-ORE.)

6/27

Niki Tsongas

REP. (D-MASS.)

6/26

Brenda Lawrence

REP. (D-MICH.)

6/26

Don Beyer

REP. (D-VA.)

6/23

William "Lacy" Clay Jr.

REP. (D-MO.)

6/23

Matthew Cartwright

REP. (D-PA.)

6/13

Tom Wolf

GOV. (D-PA.)

6/13

Elizabeth Esty

REP. (D-CONN.)

6/13

John B. Larson

REP. (D-CONN.)

6/7

Dannel P. Malloy

GOV. (D-

6/5

Steve Cohen

REP. (D-TENN.)

6/4

Christopher Murphy

SEN. (D-

10

1
10
1
1
10

CONN.)

CONN.)
5/27

Katherine Clark

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

REP. (D-MASS.)

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5/20

Peter Shumlin

GOV. (D-VT.)

5/14

Joseph P. Kennedy III

REP. (D-MASS.)

5/12

James McGovern

REP. (D-MASS.)

5/5

Michael F. Bennet

SEN. (D-COLO.)

5/5

Gary Peters

SEN. (D-MICH.)

5/4

Henry Cuellar

REP. (D-

10

TEXAS)
5/4

Adam Schiff

REP. (D-CALIF.)

5/4

Eddie Bernice Johnson

REP. (D-

TEXAS)
5/4

Derek Kilmer

REP. (D-

WASH.)
5/4

Adam Smith

REP. (D-

WASH.)
5/4

Daniel Kildee

REP. (D-MICH.)

5/4

Gerald E. "Gerry"
Connolly

REP. (D-VA.)

5/4

Jared Polis

REP. (D-COLO.)

5/4

Jos E. Serrano

REP. (D-N.Y.)

5/4

Ed Perlmutter

REP. (D-COLO.)

5/4

Kathleen Rice

REP. (D-N.Y.)

5/4

Rubn Hinojosa

REP. (D-

TEXAS)
5/4

Marc Veasey

REP. (D-

TEXAS)
5/4

Brad Sherman

REP. (D-CALIF.)

5/4

Sean Patrick Maloney

REP. (D-N.Y.)

5/4

Julia Brownley

REP. (D-CALIF.)

5/4

Filemon Vela

REP. (D-

TEXAS)
5/4

Jim Cooper

REP. (D-TENN.)

5/4

Mike Thompson

REP. (D-CALIF.)

5/4

Joyce Beatty

REP. (D-OHIO)

5/4

Patrick Murphy

REP. (D-FLA.)

5/4

Kathy Castor

REP. (D-FLA.)

5/4

Kurt Schrader

REP. (D-ORE.)

4/29

Emanuel Cleaver

REP. (D-MO.)

4/24

Robert P. Casey, Jr.

SEN. (D-PA.)

4/23

Steve Israel

REP. (D-N.Y.)

4/23

Cory A. Booker

SEN. (D-N.J.)

4/22

John Conyers Jr.

REP. (D-MICH.)

4/16

Gina M. Raimondo

GOV. (D-R.I.)

4/15

Jim McDermott

REP. (D-

10
1

WASH.)
4/14

Rosa L. DeLauro

REP. (D-CONN.)

4/13

Tom Udall

SEN. (D-N.M.)

4/12

Karen Bass

REP. (D-CALIF.)

4/12

Rick Larsen

REP. (D-

WASH.)
4/12

Jeanne Shaheen

SEN. (D-N.H.)

4/12

Andrew M. Cuomo

GOV. (D-N.Y.)

10

4/12

Debbie Dingell

REP. (D-MICH.)

4/11

Nydia M. Velzquez

REP. (D-N.Y.)

4/11

Jerrold Nadler

REP. (D-N.Y.)

2/2

Brian Schatz

SEN. (D-

HAWAII)
1/29

Alcee L. Hastings

REP. (D-FLA.)

1/27

Ami Bera

REP. (D-CALIF.)

1/27

Mark Takano

REP. (D-CALIF.)

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1/27

Judy Chu

REP. (D-CALIF.)

1/27

Mazie K. Hirono

SEN. (D-

HAWAII)
1/27

Ted Lieu

REP. (D-CALIF.)

1/27

Madeleine Bordallo

REP. (D-GUAM)

1/27

Tammy Duckworth

REP. (D-ILL.)

1/22

Lucille Roybal-Allard

REP. (D-CALIF.)

1/22

Loretta Sanchez

REP. (D-CALIF.)

1/22

Grace Napolitano

REP. (D-CALIF.)

12/18/14

Bill Nelson

SEN. (D-FLA.)

12/16

Al Franken

SEN. (D-MINN.)

12/1

Barbara A. Mikulski

SEN. (D-MD.)

12/1

Benjamin L. Cardin

SEN. (D-MD.)

11/14

Terry McAuliffe

GOV. (D-VA.)

10

11/10

Charles B. Rangel

REP. (D-N.Y.)

10/14

Nita Lowey

REP. (D-N.Y.)

8/5

Mark R. Warner

SEN. (D-VA.)

7/12

Martin Heinrich

SEN. (D-N.M.)

7/12

Michelle Lujan Grisham

REP. (D-N.M.)

6/21

Patrick J. Leahy

SEN. (D-VT.)

6/18

Rick Nolan

REP. (D-MINN.)

6/18

Betty McCollum

REP. (D-MINN.)

6/7

Richard Blumenthal

SEN. (D-

CONN.)
6/6

Bill Foster

REP. (D-ILL.)

6/6

Robin Kelly

REP. (D-ILL.)

6/5

Richard J. Durbin

SEN. (D-ILL.)

6/4

Amy Klobuchar

SEN. (D-MINN.)

5/22

Debbie Stabenow

SEN. (D-MICH.)

5/4

Mark Takai

REP. (D-

HAWAII)
5/3

Tim Kaine

SEN. (D-VA.)

2/7

Ted Deutch

REP. (D-FLA.)

1/31

Joseph Crowley

REP. (D-N.Y.)

1/29

Joe Manchin III

SEN. (D-W.VA.)

1/28

Sheldon Whitehouse

SEN. (D-R.I.)

1/28

Brian Higgins

REP. (D-N.Y.)

1/28

Sheila Jackson Lee

REP. (D-

TEXAS)
1/28

Steny H. Hoyer

REP. (D-MD.)

1/28

Joaquin Castro

REP. (D-

TEXAS)
1/28

Lois Frankel

REP. (D-FLA.)

1/28

John Delaney

REP. (D-MD.)

1/28

Richard E. Neal

REP. (D-MASS.)

1/28

Chellie Pingree

REP. (D-MAINE)

1/28

Grace Meng

REP. (D-N.Y.)

1/28

Terri A. Sewell

REP. (D-ALA.)

1/28

Gregory W. Meeks

REP. (D-N.Y.)

1/28

Gene Green

REP. (D-

TEXAS)
1/28

David Scott

REP. (D-GA.)

1/28

Janice Hahn

REP. (D-CALIF.)

1/28

Mike Honda

REP. (D-CALIF.)

1/28

John Lewis

REP. (D-GA.)

1/28

Cedric Richmond

REP. (D-LA.)

1/28

Frederica Wilson

REP. (D-FLA.)

1/28

Jim Langevin

REP. (D-R.I.)

1/28

Doris O. Matsui

REP. (D-CALIF.)

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1/28

Luis Gutierrez

REP. (D-ILL.)

1/28

Henry C. "Hank" Jr.

REP. (D-GA.)

Johnson
1/28

Stephen F. Lynch

REP. (D-MASS.)

1/28

Jan Schakowsky

REP. (D-ILL.)

1/28

Danny K. Davis

REP. (D-ILL.)

1/28

David Cicilline

REP. (D-R.I.)

1/28

Sander Levin

REP. (D-MICH.)

1/28

Louise Slaughter

REP. (D-N.Y.)

1/13

Chris Van Hollen

REP. (D-MD.)

12/12/13

Dianne Feinstein

SEN. (D-CALIF.)

11/17

Kirsten E. Gillibrand

SEN. (D-N.Y.)

11/11

Carolyn Maloney

REP. (D-N.Y.)

11/8

Patty Murray

SEN. (D-

WASH.)
11/7

Mark Dayton

GOV. (D-MINN.)

11/5

Tim Ryan

REP. (D-OHIO)

11/2

Charles E. Schumer

SEN. (D-N.Y.)

10/30

Barbara Boxer

SEN. (D-CALIF.)

8/18

Dina Titus

REP. (D-NEV.)

6/18

Claire McCaskill

SEN. (D-MO.)

9/1/15

Christopher A. Coons

SEN. (D-DEL.)

8/18

John Carney

REP. (D-DEL.)

8/17

Jack Markell

GOV. (D-DEL.)

7/24/15

Eric Swalwell

REP. (D-CALIF.)

CANDIDATE

DATE

ENDORSER

POSITION

Jeb Bush

9/17/15

Mike Rogers

REP. (R-ALA.)

8/21

Patrick T. McHenry

REP. (R-N.C.)

8/20

Jeff Denham

REP. (R-CALIF.)

8/19

Dave Trott

REP. (R-MICH.)

8/12

Dean Heller

SEN. (R-NEV.)

8/12

Orrin G. Hatch

SEN. (R-UTAH)

7/28

Tom Reed

REP. (R-N.Y.)

7/1

Susan M. Collins

SEN. (R-MAINE)

6/23

Chris Collins

REP. (R-N.Y.)

6/17

Mark Amodei

REP. (R-NEV.)

6/12

Carlos Curbelo

REP. (R-FLA.)

6/12

Vern Buchanan

REP. (R-FLA.)

6/12

Gus M. Bilirakis

REP. (R-FLA.)

6/12

Daniel Webster

REP. (R-FLA.)

6/12

John Mica

REP. (R-FLA.)

6/12

Jeff Miller

REP. (R-FLA.)

5/18

Pete Sessions

REP. (R-TEXAS)

2/18

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

REP. (R-FLA.)

2/18

David Jolly

REP. (R-FLA.)

2/18

Mario Diaz-Balart

REP. (R-FLA.)

2/18

Dennis Ross

REP. (R-FLA.)

2/18

Ander Crenshaw

REP. (R-FLA.)

2/17

Adam Kinzinger

REP. (R-ILL.)

7/22/15

Patrick Meehan

REP. (R-PA.)

7/15

Larry Hogan

GOV. (R-MD.)

10

7/1

Paul R. LePage

GOV. (R-MAINE)

10

6/30

Tom MacArthur

REP. (R-N.J.)

6/30

Rodney Frelinghuysen

REP. (R-N.J.)

6/30

Leonard Lance

REP. (R-N.J.)

6/30

Frank LoBiondo

REP. (R-N.J.)

Joe Biden

Martin

10

1
10
1

O'Malley

Chris Christie

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

PTS.

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Mike
Huckabee

The 2016 Endorsement Primary | FiveThirtyEight

9/28/15

Bruce Westerman

REP. (R-ARK.)

9/28

Rick Crawford

REP. (R-ARK.)

9/28

French Hill

REP. (R-ARK.)

9/28

Chuck Fleischmann

REP. (R-TENN.)

8/13

John Boozman

SEN. (R-ARK.)

8/6

Mike Rounds

SEN. (R-S.D.)

5/5

Asa Hutchinson

GOV. (R-ARK.)

9/21/15

Mick Mulvaney

REP. (R-S.C.)

7/15

Cynthia M. Lummis

REP. (R-WYO.)

5/4

Justin Amash

REP. (R-MICH.)

4/10

Walter B. Jones

REP. (R-N.C.)

4/6

Andy Barr

REP. (R-KY.)

4/6

S. Brett Guthrie

REP. (R-KY.)

4/6

Thomas Massie

REP. (R-KY.)

4/5

Raul R. Labrador

REP. (R-IDAHO)

4/1

Ed Whitfield

REP. (R-KY.)

2/21

Curt Clawson

REP. (R-FLA.)

11/6/14

Mitch McConnell

SEN. (R-KY.)

9/2/15

Gregg Harper

REP. (R-MISS.)

8/17

Robert Bentley

GOV. (R-ALA.)

10

7/6

Pat Tiberi

REP. (R-OHIO)

7/6

Steve Stivers

REP. (R-OHIO)

7/6

Michael Turner

REP. (R-OHIO)

9/28/15

Randy Weber

REP. (R-TEXAS)

8/6

Jody Hice

REP. (R-GA.)

7/18

Jim Bridenstine

REP. (R-OKLA.)

7/2

Brian Babin

REP. (R-TEXAS)

5/21

Louie Gohmert

REP. (R-TEXAS)

5/21

Michael Burgess

REP. (R-TEXAS)

5/21

John Ratcliffe

REP. (R-TEXAS)

4/17

John Culberson

REP. (R-TEXAS)

Lindsey
Graham

1/29/15

John McCain

SEN. (R-ARIZ.)

Marco Rubio

9/27/15

Chris Stewart

REP. (R-UTAH)

9/24

John Moolenaar

REP. (R-MICH.)

9/21

Austin Scott

REP. (R-GA.)

2/18

Tom Rooney

REP. (R-FLA.)

8/7/15

Doug Collins

REP. (R-GA.)

4/22

Reid Ribble

REP. (R-WIS.)

4/11

Sean P. Duffy

REP. (R-WIS.)

9/23/15

Candice Miller

REP. (R-MICH.)

9/20

Lynn Jenkins

REP. (R-KAN.)

Rick Perry

7/17/15

Joe Barton

REP. (R-TEXAS)

Rick Santorum

6/2/15

Lou Barletta

REP. (R-PA.)

Rand Paul

John Kasich

Ted Cruz

Scott Walker

Carly Fiorina

5
10

Illustration by Mike McQuade. Abby Abrams, Hannah Fingerhut, and Dhrumil Mehta contributed research. Additional contributions from Allison McCann and Jay Boice.
Sources: The Party Decides; Democracy In Action; news reports.

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