Nama : Evelyn Raflesia

NIM : 140403065
Kelas : B

Heuristic
A heuristic technique , sometimes called simply a heuristic, is any approach to problem solving,
learning, or discovery that employs a practical methodology not guaranteed to be optimal or
perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals. Where finding an optimal solution is impossible
or impractical, heuristic methods can be used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory
solution. Heuristics can be mental shortcuts that ease the cognitive load of making a decision.
Examples of this method include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment,
stereotyping, profiling, or common sense.
More precisely, heuristics are strategies using readily accessible, though loosely applicable,
information to control problem solving in human beings and machines.
In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules, learned or hard-coded by evolutionary
processes, that have been proposed to explain how people make decisions, come to judgments,
and solve problems typically when facing complex problems or incomplete information.
Researchers test if people use those rules with various methods. These rules work well under
most circumstances, but in certain cases lead to systematic errors or cognitive biases.
Although much of the work of discovering heuristics in human decision-makers was done by the
Israeli psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman,[4] the concept was originally
introduced by Nobel laureate Herbert A. Simon. Simon's original, primary object of research was
problem solving which showed that we operate within what he callsbounded rationality. He
coined the term "satisficing", which denotes the situation where people seek solutions or accept
choices or judgments that are "good enough" for their purposes, but could be optimized.
Gerd gigerenze focused on the "fast and frugal" properties of heuristics, i.e., using heuristics in a
way that is principally accurate and thus eliminating most cognitive bias.[6] From one particular

batch of research, Gigerenzer and Wolfgang Gaissmaier found that both individuals and
organizations rely on heuristics in an adaptive way. They also found that ignoring part of the
information [with a decision], rather than weighing all the options, can actually lead to more
accurate decisions.[7][8]
Heuristics, through greater refinement and research, have begun to be applied to other theories,
or be explained by them. For example: the Cognitive-Experiential Self-Theory(CEST) also an
adaptive view of heuristic processing. CEST breaks down two systems that process information.
At some times, roughly speaking, individuals consider issues rationally, systematically, logically,
deliberately, effortfully, and verbally. On other occasions, individuals consider issues intuitively,
effortlessly, globally, and emotionally.[9] From this perspective, heuristics are part of a larger
experiential processing system that is often adaptive, but vulnerable to error in situations that
require logical analysis.[10]
In 2002, Daniel Kahneman and Shane Frederick proposed that cognitive heuristics work by a
process called attribute substitution, which happens without conscious awareness.[11]According
to this theory, when somebody makes a judgment (of a "target attribute") that is computationally
complex, a rather easier calculated "heuristic attribute" is substituted. In effect, a cognitively
difficult problem is dealt with by answering a rather simpler problem, without being aware of
this happening.[11] This theory explains cases where judgments fail to show regression toward the
mean.[12] Heuristics can be considered to reduce the complexity of clinical judgements in
healthcare.[13]
Theorized psychological heuristics
Well known
Anchoring and adjustment Describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the
first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions. For example, in a study
done with children, the children were told to estimate the number of jellybeans in a jar. Groups
of children were given either a high or low "base" number (anchor). Children estimated the
number of jellybeans to be closer to the anchor number that they were given.

Availability heuristic A mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about
the probability of events by the ease with which examples come to mind. For example, in a

1973 Tversky & Kahneman experiment, the majority of participants reported that there were
more words in the English language that start with the letter K than for which K was the third
letter. There are actually twice as many words in the English Language that have K as the
third letter than start with K, but words that start with K are much easier to recall and bring
to mind.

Representativeness heuristic A mental shortcut used when making judgments about the
probability of an event under uncertainty. Or, judging a situation based on how similar the
prospects are to the prototypes the person holds in his or her mind. For example, in a 1982
Tversky and Kahneman experiment, participants were given a description of a woman
named Linda. Based on the description, it was likely that Linda was a feminist. 80-90% of
participants responded that it was also more likely for Linda to be a feminist and a bank
teller than just a bank teller. The likelihood of two events cannot be greater than that of either
of the two events individually. For this reason, the Representativeness Heuristic is exemplary
of the Conjunction fallacy

Nave diversification When asked to make several choices at once, people tend to
diversify more than when making the same type of decision sequentially.

Escalation of commitment Describes the phenomenon where people justify increased

investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence
suggesting that the cost, starting today, of continuing the decision outweighs the expected
benefit.

Familiarity heuristic A mental shortcut applied to various situations in which

individuals assume that the circumstances underlying the past behavior still hold true for the
present situation and that the past behavior thus can be correctly applied to the new situation.
Especially prevalent when the individual experiences a high cognitive load .

Objective

A specific result that a person or system aims to achieve within a time frame and with available
resources.
In general, objectives are more specific and easier to measure than goals. Objectives are basic
tools that underlie all planning and strategic activities. They serve as the basis for creating policy
and evaluating performance. Some examples of business objectives include minimizing
expenses, expanding internationally, or making a profit.

Neutral (bias free), relating to, or based on verifiable evidence or facts instead of on attitude,
belief, or opinion. Opposite of subjective.

Algorithms
Algorithms are essential to the way computers process data. Many computer programs contain
algorithms that detail the specific instructions a computer should perform (in a specific order) to
carry out a specified task, such as calculating employees' paychecks or printing students' report
cards. Thus, an algorithm can be considered to be any sequence of operations that can be
simulated by a Turing-complete system. Authors who assert this thesis include Minsky (1967),
Savage (1987) and Gurevich (2000):
Minsky: "But we will also maintain, with Turing . . . that any procedure which could "naturally"
be called effective, can in fact be realized by a (simple) machine. Although this may seem
extreme, the arguments . . . in its favor are hard to refute".[22]
Gurevich: "...Turing's informal argument in favor of his thesis justifies a stronger thesis: every
algorithm can be simulated by a Turing machine ... according to Savage [1987], an algorithm is a
computational process defined by a Turing machine".[23]
Typically, when an algorithm is associated with processing information, data is read from an
input source, written to an output device, and/or stored for further processing. Stored data is
regarded as part of the internal state of the entity performing the algorithm. In practice, the state
is stored in one or more data structures.

For some such computational process, the algorithm must be rigorously defined: specified in the
way it applies in all possible circumstances that could arise. That is, any conditional steps must
be systematically dealt with, case-by-case; the criteria for each case must be clear (and
computable).
Because an algorithm is a precise list of precise steps, the order of computation is always critical
to the functioning of the algorithm. Instructions are usually assumed to be listed explicitly, and
are described as starting "from the top" and going "down to the bottom", an idea that is described
more formally by flow of control.
So far, this discussion of the formalization of an algorithm has assumed the premises of
imperative programming. This is the most common conception, and it attempts to describe a task
in discrete, "mechanical" means. Unique to this conception of formalized algorithms is the
assignment operation, setting the value of a variable. It derives from the intuition of "memory" as
a scratchpad. There is an example below of such an assignment.
For some alternate conceptions of what constitutes an algorithm see functional programming and
logic programming.

Algorithms can be expressed in many kinds of notation, including natural languages,

pseudocode, flowcharts, drakon-charts, programming languages or control tables (processed by
interpreters). Natural language expressions of algorithms tend to be verbose and ambiguous, and
are rarely used for complex or technical algorithms. Pseudocode, flowcharts, drakon-charts and
control tables are structured ways to express algorithms that avoid many of the ambiguities
common in natural language statements. Programming languages are primarily intended for
expressing algorithms in a form that can be executed by a computer, but are often used as a way
to define or document algorithms.

There is a wide variety of representations possible and one can express a given Turing machine
program as a sequence of machine tables (see more at finite state machine, state transition table
and control table), as flowcharts and drakon-charts (see more at state diagram), or as a form of

rudimentary machine code or assembly code called "sets of quadruples" (see more at Turing
machine).
Representations of algorithms can be classed into three accepted levels of Turing machine
description:[24]
1 High-level description
"...prose to describe an algorithm, ignoring the implementation details. At this level we do not
need to mention how the machine manages its tape or head."
2 Implementation description
"...prose used to define the way the Turing machine uses its head and the way that it stores data
on its tape. At this level we do not give details of states or transition function."
3 Formal description
Most detailed, "lowest level", gives the Turing machine's "state table".
For an example of the simple algorithm "Add m+n" described in all three levels, see Algorithm
examples.
Goal
A goal is a desired result that a person or a system envisions, plans and commits to achieve: a
personal or organizational desired end-point in some sort of assumed development. Many people
endeavor to reach goals within a finite time by setting deadlines.

It is roughly similar to purpose or aim, the anticipated result which guides reaction, or an end,
which is an object, either a physical object or an abstract object, that has intrinsic value.
ndividuals can set personal goals. A student may set a goal of a high mark in an exam. An athlete
might run five miles a day. A traveler might try to reach a destination-city within three hours.
Financial goals are a common example, to save for retirement or to save for a purchase.

Managing goals can give returns in all areas of personal life. Knowing precisely what one wants
to achieve makes clear what to concentrate and improve on, and often subconsciously prioritizes
that goal.
Goal setting and planning ("goal work") promotes long-term vision and short-term motivation. It
focuses intention, desire, acquisition of knowledge, and helps to organize resources.
Efficient goal work includes recognizing and resolving all guilt, inner conflict or limiting belief
that might cause one to sabotage one's efforts. By setting clearly defined goals, one can
subsequently measure and take pride in the accomplishment of those goals. One can see progress
in what might have seemed a long, perhaps difficult, grind.
Goal management in organization
In organizations, goal management consists of the process of recognizing or inferring goals of
individual team-members, abandoning goals that are no longer relevant, identifying and
resolving conflicts among goals, and prioritizing goals consistently for optimal teamcollaboration and effective operations.
For any successful commercial system, it means deriving profits by making the best quality
of goods or the best quality of services available to the end-user (customer) at the best
possible cost. Goal management includes:

Assessment and dissolution of non-rational blocks to success

Time management

Frequent reconsideration (consistency checks)

Feasibility checks

Adjusting milestones and main-goal targets

Jens Rasmussen (human factors expert) and Morten Lind distinguish three fundamental
categories of goals related to technological system management:

1. Production goal
2. Safety goal
3. Economy goal
An organizational goal-management solution ensures that individual employee goals and
objectives align with the vision and strategic goals of the entire organization. Goal-management
provides organizations with a mechanism to effectively communicate corporate goals and
strategic objectives to each person across the entire organization. The key consists of having it all
emanate from a pivotal source and providing each person with a clear, consistent organizationalgoal message so that every employee understands how their efforts contribute to an enterprise's
success.
An example of goal types in business management:

Consumer goals: this refers to supplying a product or service that the market/consumer
wants

Product goals: this refers to supplying an outstanding value proposition compared to

other products perhaps due to the likes of quality, design, reliability and novelty

Operational goals: this refers to running the organization in such a way as to make the
best use of management skills, technology and resources

Secondary goals: this refers to goals which an organization does not regard as priorities

Input/Output

Input is something put into a system or expended in its operation to achieve output or a
result. Output is the information produced by a system or process from a specific input.

Within the context of systems theory, the inputs are what are put into a system and the
outputs are the results obtained after running an entire process or just a small part of a
process. Because the outputs can be the results of an individual unit of a larger process,
outputs of one part of a process can be the inputs to another part of the process.
In computing, input/output or I/O (or informally, io or IO) is the communication between
an information processing system (such as a computer) and the outside world, possibly a human
or another information processing system. Inputs are the signals or data received by the system
and outputs are the signals or data sent from it. The term can also be used as part of an action; to
"perform I/O" is to perform an input or output operation. I/O devices are used by a human (or
other system) to communicate with a computer. For instance, a keyboard or mouse is an input
device for a computer, while monitors and printers are output devices. Devices for
communication between computers, such as modemsand network cards, typically perform both
input and output operations.
Note that the designation of a device as either input or output depends on perspective. Mice and
keyboards take physical movements that the human user outputs and convert them into input
signals that a computer can understand; the output from these devices is the computer's input.
Similarly, printers and monitors take signals that a computer outputs as input, and they convert
these signals into a representation that human users can understand. From the human user's
perspective, the process of reading or seeing these representations is receiving input; this type of
interaction between computers and humans is studied in the field of humancomputer
interaction.
In computer architecture, the combination of the CPU and main memory, to which the CPU can
read or write directly using individual instructions, is considered the brain of a computer. Any
transfer of information to or from the CPU/memory combo, for example by reading data from
a disk drive, is considered I/O. The CPU and its supporting circuitry may provide memorymapped I/O that is used in low-level computer programming, such as in the implementation
of device drivers, or may provide access to I/O channels. An I/O algorithm is one designed to
exploit locality and perform efficiently when exchanging data with a secondary storage device,
such as a disk drive.

Interface
An I/O interface is required whenever the I/O device is driven by the processor. The interface
must have necessary logic to interpret the device address generated by the
processor. Handshaking should be implemented by the interface using appropriate commands
(like BUSY, READY, and WAIT), and the processor can communicate with an I/O device
through the interface. If different data formats are being exchanged, the interface must be able to
convert serial data to parallel form and vice-versa. There must be provision for
generating interrupts and the corresponding type numbers for further processing by the processor
if required.
A computer that uses memory-mapped I/O accesses hardware by reading and writing to specific
memory locations, using the same assembly language instructions that computer would normally
use to access memory.

Input and output analysis

Input-output analysis is a technique used in economics for tracing resources and products within
an economy. The system of producers and consumers is divided into different branches, which
are defined in terms of the resources they require as inputs and what they produce as outputs.
The quantities of input and output for a given time period, usually expressed in monetary terms,
are entered into an input-output matrix within which one can analyze what happens within and
across various sectors of an economy where growth and decline takes place and what effects
various subsidies may have (Krippendorf).
A system can be defined by using the definition of desired outputs to understand what inputs are
necessary. The following questions can be used for this method:
1. What essential outputs must the system produce in order to satisfy the system users
requirements?

2. What transformations are necessary to produce these outputs?

3. What inputs are necessary for these transformations to produce the desired outputs?
4. What types of information does the system need to retain?
Another way of defining a system is to work forward in a stimulus-response method of
definition. The following questions can be asked in conjunction with this method in order to
define the system:
1. What are the stimuli, and what are the responses to each stimulus?
2. For each stimulus response pair, what are the transformations necessary?
3. What are the essential data that must be maintained?
These methods can be used to define not just the general system in question, but also the
subsystems which compose the larger system as a whole (Sauter).

Vision and mission

W H AT I S A V I S I O N S TATE M E N T ?
Your vision is your dream. It's what your organization believes are the ideal conditions for your
community; that is, how things would look if the issue important to you were completely,
perfectly addressed. It might be a world without war, or a community in which all people are
treated as equals, regardless of gender or racial background.
Whatever your organization's dream is, it may be well articulated by one or more vision
statements. Vision statements are short phrases or sentences that convey your community's hopes
for the future. By developing a vision statement or statements, your organization clarifies the
beliefs and governing principles of your organization, first for yourselves, and then for the
greater community.

There are certain characteristics that most vision statements have in common. In general, vision
statements should be:

Understood and shared by members of the community

Broad enough to include a diverse variety of local perspectives

Inspiring and uplifting to everyone involved in your effort

Easy to communicate - for example, they are generally short enough to fit on a T-shirt

Here are some examples of vision statements that meet the above criteria:

Caring communities

Healthy children

Safe streets, safe neighborhoods

Every house a home

Education for all

Peace on earth

W H AT I S A M I S S I O N S TATE M E N T ?
The next piece of the puzzle is to ground your vision in practical terms. This is where developing
a mission statement, the next step in the action planning process comes in. An organization's
mission statement describes what the group is going to do and why it's going to do that. For
example, "Promoting care and caring at the end of life through coalitions and advocacy."
Mission statements are similar to vision statements, in that they, too, look at the big picture.
However, they're more concrete, and they are definitely more "action-oriented" than vision

statements. Your vision statement should inspire people to dream; your mission statement should
inspire them to action.
The mission statement might refer to a problem, such as an inadequate housing, or a goal, such
as providing access to health care for everyone. And, while they don 't go into a lot of detail, they
start to hint - very broadly - at how your organization might fix these problems or reach these
goals. Some general guiding principles about mission statements are that they are:

Concise. While not as short as vision statements, mission statements generally still get
their point across in one sentence.

Outcome-oriented. Mission statements explain the fundamental outcomes your

organization is working to achieve.

Inclusive. While mission statements do make statements about your group's key goals, it's
very important that they do so very broadly. Good mission statements are not limiting in
the strategies or sectors of the community that may become involved in the project.

The following examples should help you understand what we mean by effective mission
statements.

"Promoting child health and development through a comprehensive family and

community initiative."

"To create a thriving African American community through development of jobs,

education, housing, and cultural pride."

"To develop a safe and healthy neighborhood through collaborative planning, community
action, and policy advocacy."

"Promoting community health and development by connecting people, ideas and

resources." (This is the mission of the Community Tool Box)

W H Y S H O U L D Y O U C R E ATE V I S I O N AN D M I S S I O N S TATE M E N T S ?
Why is it important that your organization develops vision and mission statements like those
above? First of all, because these statements can help your organization focus on what is really
important. Although your organization knows what you are trying to do to improve your
community, it's easy to lose sight of this when dealing with the day-to-day hassles that plague all
organizations. Your vision and mission statements help members remember what is important as
you go about doing your daily work.
Second, your vision and mission statements let other individuals and organizations have a
snapshot view of whom your group is and what it wants to do. When your vision and mission
statements are easily visible (for example, if they are on the letterhead of your stationary), people
can learn about your organization without having to work hard for the information. Then, those
with common interests can take the time necessary to learn more. Clearly, this can be very
helpful when you are recruiting other people and organizations to join in your effort.
Finally, vision and mission statements are also very helpful in having members who are focused
and bound together in common purpose. Not only do the statements themselves serve as a
constant reminder of what is important to your organization, the process of developing them
allows people to see the organization as "theirs." It's common sense: people will believe in
something more completely if they had a hand in developing it.
There are many other reasons to develop vision and mission statements as well. For example,
having clear and compelling vision statements can:

Draw people to common work

Give hope for a better future

Inspire community members to realize their dreams through positive, effective action

Provide a basis for developing the other aspects of your action planning process: your
mission, objectives, strategies, and action plans

Having a clear mission statement can:

Convert the broad dreams of your vision into more specific, action-oriented terms

Explain your goals to interested parties in a clear and concise manner

Enhance your organization's image as being competent and professional, thus reassuring
funding sources that their investment was (or would be!) a smart choice