MPRA Paper 40470

M PRA
Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Valuation of 2G spectrum in India- A

real option approach
Pankaj Sinha and Nataraj Sathiyanarayanan
Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi
21. May 2012
Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40470/
MPRA Paper No. 40470, posted 4. August 2012 19:03 UTC
Valuation of 2G spectrum in India- A real option approach
Pankaj Sinha and Nataraj Sathiyanarayanan

Faculty of Management Studies
University of Delhi
Abstract
The phenomenal growth of telecommunication sector in India has largely been possible due to
the contributory factors such as the efforts made by private and public telecom service providers
to make services affordable to the mass market, reduction in entry barrier due to drastically
lowered entry level price for devices, changing demographic profile and the increasing per-capita
income. However, it the issue of spectrum pricing that has captured the centre stage with the high
prices realized from the 3G and BWA spectrum auction and the outburst of the 2G Spectrum
scam in India.
In this paper, we use both the traditional valuation method-Discounted Cash Flow as well as the
Real Option approach that takes into consideration managerial flexibility and strategic decision
making aspects. The analyses have been done individually as the factors determining revenues
and thereby the spectrum values are expected to be different. By dividing the DCF or ROV value
thus arrived by the total spectrum allotted so far in the service areas, we obtain the price of 1
MHz of spectrum. A sensitivity analysis has also been done to check the variations arising in the
value due to changes in parameters like ARPU and subscriber count. Ignoring the economies of
scale arising from usage of a larger block of spectrum, this value gives a reasonable estimate of
the price of the spectrum that can be used by both companies and the government. The above
analyses have been done to arrive at the price of 1 Mhz of spectrum in each of the 22 telecom
circles and also on a pan India level. The spectrum price range for a pan India 1 Mhz of spectrum
is Rs.1535 crores to Rs.1876 crores. This is definitely higher than the price discovered in 2001
Rs.1658 crores for 6.2 Mhz of spectrum. Finally, we also provide a comparison with the prices
suggested by TRAI in its consulting paper.
1.
Introduction
The last two decades have seen India emerging as one of the biggest telecom markets in the
world. The Indian telecommunication sector in India is the third largest sector across the globe
and the second largest among the emerging economies of Asia1. This rapid growth has been
possible due to various proactive and positive decisions of the Government and contribution of
both the public and the private sector. The rapid strides in the telecom sector have been
facilitated by liberal policies of the Government providing the telecom equipments an easy
access to the market and a fair regulatory framework for offering telecom services to the Indian
consumers at affordable prices. However, it the issue of spectrum pricing that has captured the
centre stage with the high prices realized from the 3G and BWA spectrum auction and the
outburst of the 2G Spectrum scam.
With the recent cancellation of 122 license awarded in 2008 by the Supreme Court and the
impending auction of spectrum, it is imperative for Companies to arrive at a price that they can
pay to acquire a piece of the spectrum. Also, from a Government perspective, it is important to
set a base price for the auction, given its objectives of overall benefit to the larger mass and
maximization of Government revenues.
The number of telephone subscriber in India increased from 885.99 million at the end of Jun-11
to 906.93 million at the end of Sep-11, registering a growth of 2.36% over the previous quarter
as against 4.69% during the QE Jun-11. This reflects year-on-year (Y-O-Y) growth of 25.39%
over the same quarter of last year. The overall tele-density in India has reached 75.48 as on
30th September 20112.
1
2
http://ibef.org/industry/telecommunications.aspx, accessed on 13/3/2012

TRAI Performance Indicator Report, Sep 2011
Figure 1: Trends in Telephone subscribers and Teledensity in India
Source: TRAI
1.1.1
Indian Mobile Service
The Wireless segment is much larger than the Wireline segment in India. The segment is
growing steadily because of the convenience and utility it offers. The subscriber base of Wireless
services stood at 873.61 million as of September 2011 with tele-density of 72.70 percent.
Figure 2: Wireless Subscriber Base and Teledensity
Source: TRAI
Private players such as Bharti Airtel, Reliance, Vodafone, Tata, BSNL, and Idea Cellular
cumulatively hold a major share of the Wireless market. There is a clear distinction between
the Global Satellite Mobile Communication (GSM) and Code Division Multiple Access
(CDMA) technologies used within the Indian telecom sector. The industry is highly competitive
at present with over 10 service providers vying for the pie. This has ensured intense competition
and continuously falling ARPU with the introduction of innovative schemes.
Figure 3: Subscribers by Company
1.80%
0.70%
0.40%
0.10%
7.30%
Bharti
Vodafone
20.70%
9.90%
Reliance
Idea
BSNL
11.40%
17.40%
12.60%
TTSL
Aircel
17.70%
Shyam Telelink
MTNL
Source: TRAI
Figure 4: Wireless Subscription: GSM vs CDMA
Source: TRAI
1.1.2
Near Saturation in Voice business
The voice business of Indian mobile services operators has seen a sharp decline in the past
couple of years. The growth is expected to decelerate further, with active mobile penetration
having hit ~56% (high given 37% Indians live below the poverty line) and Indian players having
exploited price elasticity in the last 3-4 years (hyper-competition). After growing at about ~76%
CAGR over FY05-09, voice growth has slowed to 28% over FY09-11 and is likely to fall further
to 12% in FY123.
This is a structural shift in voice minutes and a build in volume growth of 8% for FY12-14E.
1.1.3
High Competition in the sector
The Indian wireless market has witnessed very high competition. Typically, the wireless market
is an oligopoly of 3-5 players. However, the Indian telecom market has 14 operators with a
Harfindahl index of less than 0.2. Although a recent Supreme Court order cancelling 122 licenses
issued in January 2008 may reduce the number of players, competitive intensity is likely to
remain high with at least 6-7 players with sizeable presence and/ or deep pockets.
1.2 Spectrum Allocation and Pricing

The Country is divided into 22 Service Areas consisting of 19 Telecom Circle Service Areas and
3 Metro Service Areas for providing Cellular Mobile Telephone Service (CMTS).
1.2.1
Supreme Courts Cancellation of 2G UAS license
The Supreme Court of India ordered all the 122 UAS licences issued in January 2008 following
2G spectrum auction.
The companies whose licenses were scrapped are Uninor, Sistema
Shyam, STel, Videocon, Idea Cellular, Tata Teleservices, Loop Telecom and Etisalat DB.
These eight companies invested a total of INR 350-400 mn to acquire 2G license. The court also
ordered Tata Teleservices, Unitech Wireless Group and Etisalat DB Telecom to pay INR 50 mn
and Loop Telecom Ltd, S Tel Ltd, Allianz Infratech Ltd and Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd to
pay INR 5 mn as fine each. The cancellation of licenses will release 470 MHz of 2G
spectrum across India. Supreme Court also asked Telecom Regulatory Authority of India
(TRAI) to prepare fresh recommendations within two months, to grant license and allocate
2G spectrums in 22 service areas via auction, similar to previous 3G auction.
1.2.2
DOTs recent Decisions
In future, the spectrum will not be bundled with the licence. The licence to be issued to
telecom operators will be in nature of unified licence and the licence holder will be free to offer
any of the multifarious telecom services. In the event the licence holder would like to offer
wireless services, it will have to obtain spectrum through a market driven process.
In future, there will be no concept of contracted spectrum and, therefore, no concept of initial or
start-up spectrum. Spectrum will be made available only through market driven process.
3
IDFC Indian wireless sector report dated 2/3/2012
Additionally, assignment of balance of contracted spectrum may need to be ensured for existing
licensees who have so far been allocated only the start up spectrum of 4.4 MHz. Only in respect
of the licences that will be found valid after the process is completed, the additional 1.8
MHz will be assigned on their becoming eligible, but the spectrum will be assigned to them
at a price determined under the new policy.
No more UAS licences linked with spectrum will be awarded. All future licences will be Unified
Licences and allocation of spectrum will be delinked from the licence. Spectrum, if required,
will have to be obtained separately. The prescribed limit on spectrum assigned to a service
provider will be 2x8 MHz/2x5 MHz for GSM/CDMA technologies for all service areas other
than in Delhi and Mumbai where it will be 2x10MHz/2x6.25MHz. However, the licensee can
acquire additional spectrum beyond prescribed limits, in the open market, should there be an
auction of spectrum subject to the limits prescribed for merger of licences.
In respect of spectrum obtained through auction, spectrum sharing will be permitted only if the
auction conditions provide for the same. Spectrum trading will not be allowed in India, at
this stage.
1.3 Spectrum Pricing
Given, the above scenario, we have attempted to price the spectrum. We do this by finding the
value generated to a potential buyer/operator on acquiring this license. Since, value changes
depending on the circle of operation; we have calculated the price of 1 Mhz of spectrum in
Metros, Category A and Category B service areas.
2.
Literature Review
In this section, we shall first look at the various attempts made to price the 2G telecom spectrum,
specifically the consulting papers issued by TRAI and the responses from the telecom
companies. Later, we look into how Real Option Valuation Approach is used in valuing assets.
In its report4 on value of spectrum in the 1800 Mhz Band, TRAI has proposed two methods for
finding the economic value of spectrum, viz.
1. Cash Flow Method where the NPV of additional cash flows over a period of 20 years have
been discounted to arrive at the suggested price.
TRAI Report on the 2010 Value of Spectrum in the 1800 Mhz Band dated 31 January 2011
2. The Substitution approach where the Cobb-Douglas function is used to arrive at the
opportunity cost of spectrum which is treated as an input for supply of mobile services.
Most of the telecom companies have been critical of the suggested price arrived at by TRAI in
the above consultation paper. Specifically, Plum Consulting in its report for Vodafone5 critically
examines the shortcomings and also lists down some of the practices applied in some of the other
countries in finding the spectrum price. The report talks about two approaches to pricing
spectrum viz. Market Benchmarks and Bottom-up approaches. Given the drawbacks of Market
Benchmarks, the focus is on the Bottom-up approach. The two approaches, as also used by
TRAI, falling under this category are the DCF approach and the cost reduction value. The two
approaches give a range of values for pricing the spectrum, the maximum value being
determined by the DCF approach and the minimum value determined by the cost reduction
approach.
Let us now look at the literature review of the DCF and the Real Options Approach.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is the most common method to value real assets whose
future cash flows can be forecasted with certain degree of predictability. The net present value of
a project can be calculated by discounting the cash flows which are expected from the project at
a certain discount rate which represents the risk of the project. This discount rate is weighted
average cost of capital for a project whose risk matches the average risk of the projects of the
firm. However if a projects risk differs considerably from the firms average risk then the
WACC is adjusted upwards or downwards to arrive at the new discount rate for the project
depending on whether the project is more risky or less risky respectively (Brandao, Dyer, &
Hahn, 2005).
DCF method is criticized for one of its inherent and structural weakness which is that the
projects value will remain same and unaffected despite any future decisions by the management
of the firm or the project (Brandao, Dyer, & Hahn, 2005). As a project runs through its useful life
a manager might want to bring about some changes and depart from the original plan of action.
Such departure from the initially conceived plan of action is not represented adequately by the
DCF model which assumes that the investments are made at predetermined time intervals. We
can incorporate Monte-Carlo analysis to vary the shape of the probability distribution of the
actual investment; however we cant change the time at which that investment will be made.
Plum Consulting report titled Methodologies for Valuing Spectrum: Review of the Experts Report, dated 1
March 2011
Consider an investment where a pharmaceutical company invests in the trial of a new drug, if the
trial is successful the company will launch the new drug in the market if it is not then the
company would stop further research and development in this new drug. Though this is a pretty
straight forward scenario where the financial manager can incorporate decision tree analysis to
evaluate the scenario, however actual problems in real life can be very different and in such
cases instead of investing all capital upfront a more strategic investment plan might be the need.
Some of the examples of project flexibilities are (Brandao, Dyer, & Hahn, 2005),
Expanding operations in response to affirmative response from the market
Deferring a particular investment or abandoning it completely if it underperforms
Scaling down the project in case the project has reached a maturity state and the returns
have hit the cap.
As the uncertainty in various facets of long term and strategic investments increases Real options
will find broad application as a strategic tool. Leslie and Michaels (Leslie & Michaels, 1997)
discuss some of the fundamental differences that exist between the traditional discounted cash
flow valuation (DCF) and the Real option valuation using Black Scholes & Merton options
theory.
They argue that traditional methods like DCF ignore the value of flexibility and strategic
decision making and hence they tend to ignore the additional value embedded in investment
opportunities where the investment is irreversible and constitutes a huge cost to the company
(Leslie & Michaels, 1997). Real option methodology empowers the management to capture the
value of this flexibility (Alleman, 2002).
DCF methodology assumes that the capital investment decision is a one-time decision, however
when a high amount of capital is involved such huge investment decisions are rarely taken in one
go and rather they are strategic decisions and receive a continuous feedback from the limited
execution of the project and market forces (Leslie & Michaels, 1997).
Figure 5: Differences between Net Present Value & Real Options Valuation Approach
(Leslie & Michaels, 1997)

Mkhize & Moja in their research discuss the application of real options valuation technique in
the cellular telecommunications industry in South Africa (Mkhize & Moja, 2009). They discuss
about the evaluation of investment that managers in the telecommunication industry of South
Africa might have to make in the next generation technologies.
Investment in the next generation technology incorporates a fair degree of uncertainty and real
options theory using Black Scholes method and Binomial models have been found effective
while making capital budgeting decisions (Mkhize & Moja, 2009).
Cellular operators are often required to take complex decisions regarding whether to deploy a
new technology or keep using the existing one. The sources of volatility while doing capital
budgeting decision analysis are the volatile demand of the customer, high initial expenditure and
a threat of a new and a better technology.
They calculate the total investment value of the new project as the sum of the passive Net present
value (which is the base case discounted cash flow analysis) plus the option value which arises
from various strategic opportunities that managers might encounter during the course of the
project. They conclude that the value of the project is much more than that calculated using a
traditional DCF as a premium was added to it in the form of option value.
Another application of real options valuation technique is explained by Basili & Fontini in their
valuation of the 3G license in the United Kingdom (Basili & Fontini, 2003). They calculated the
aggregate option value of the 3G licenses which were auctioned in UK in the year 2000.
Telecommunications industry is considered to be one of the central bones of the economy and
the application of auction to allocate 3G airwaves to various bidders is considered to be one of
the most effective economic paradigms of a real life problem (Basili & Fontini, 2003).
The revenues which were generated in the auction exceeded the governments initial estimate by
a far greater amount. Though the government received a windfall in the auction process the
operators were tied down under huge debt burden and within 2 years after the auctions European
telecommunication firms started doubting the ability of an auction to maximize the total surplus
and not just the governments surplus. The stocks of the firms which had bid for the license
performed badly after the auctions which led analysts to believe that the market is discounting
the future earnings of these firms at a higher discount rate because of the perceived risk because
of heavy debt burden (Basili & Fontini, 2003).
The option value of the license is calculated in the article and it has been shown that the value of
the project roughly corresponds to the value of the fees extracted from the bidders (Basili &
Fontini, 2003).
It is widely believed that the telecommunication firms in the Europe lost a lot market value
because of the perceived high price paid for the 3G spectrum, nonetheless, a real option
valuation shows that the value extracted from the project is approximately equal to the value paid
for the licenses.
The loss in value of the telecom firms could not be explained on the basis of the high prices paid
for the license, instead the authors brings in the discussion of a very crucial aspect of the 3G
technology which is the killer application that is required to get the users hooked to your network
and hence resulting in a higher ARPU. In the absence of such applications and difficulties
regarding the handset (Access Device) and the general downward trend in the Economic scenario
were given as the probably reasons for the loss in value. They also mentioned that over a long
term such as 20 years which is also the term of the license such effects might not remain that
relevant and eventually the technology might take off (Basili & Fontini, 2003). Logically too,
these possibilities are taken care of by the real options methodology inherently because of the
incorporation of the volatility of the future cash flows as an input in the valuation model and
hence the added value.
Another recent literature in this field tries to evaluate the value of the transferability value of the
telecommunication license. The driver behind such kind of research is the fact that in most of the
nation when government allots a telecommunication license it also stipulates that the license
could not be transferred to another telecom operators. Stipulation like the one mentioned above
might cause inconvenience to the customers and hence removal of the option is the best solution
in such cases. When removal is considered there is an added value to the original license and
hence an option is embedded in the original license which should be valued to arrive at the final
price of the license (Mastroeni & Naldi, 2010).
In most of the countries when the government assigns the telecommunication licenses to various
firm, they also set out certain time bound conditions like rollout etc. In case a company is not
able to achieve its target within the stipulated time, the government might reassign the spectrum
but that would take a lot of time and resources. If the government allows reselling of the
spectrum the bidders would look at this as an embedded option in the license which gives them
an option to exit the project in case it doesnt suit their operations. This also will increase the
value of the license at the time of the auction (Mastroeni & Naldi, 2010).
In their paper Stille, Limme and Brandao analyze the real option methodology in the Decision
making process in the Telecommunication Industry. They study the 3G license auctions which
allocated 3G spectrums to various operators who wish to operate 3G mobile services in Brazil
(Stille, Lemme, & Brandao, 2010). They had calculated 64% premium on the license when the
value of the license was calculated using Real options methodology as compared to discounted
cash flow methodology.
The degree of similarity that they brought forward between a license and auction so as to justify
their methodology of following real options valuation is (Stille, Lemme, & Brandao, 2010),
There are a large number of factors which make the investment in the rollout of the
mobile services a strategic investment which needs to be managed actively as against a
passive investment. This gives rise to a volatility which is adequately taken into
consideration in a Real options methodology.
The acquisition of the license gives the operator the right and not the obligation to invest
in the rollout of 3G services. The operator can decide to invest at a small scale and then
based on the market expectations and expected future demand it may decide to scale up
its investment. In short timing of the decision to undertake an irreversible financial
decision is very important.
The third characteristic of the license that increases its option value and thus justifying
the use of real options methodology is that the license represents a strong barrier to entry
from the competition and hence increases the value of the option.
The methodology that they follow is a pretty straightforward one. The follow the following
sequence (Stille, Lemme, & Brandao, 2010),
Calculate the static NPV of the asset which in this case is license. NPV is calculated
using expected level of cash flows generated from the license and the WACC.
In the next step they calculated the volatility of the returns of the project.
Once they had the volatility they proceeded to the option valuation step.
So far we have discussed the advantages of real option valuation methodology versus the
discounted cash flow valuation methodology; we then discussed some of the relevant literature
exploiting the importance of real option valuation methodology.
Though real options have wide applications across various Capital investment decision situations
practitioners do get bogged down by the higher mathematics involved in the real options
valuation theory. A simple framework which could be applied to various practical situations and
is backward compatible with the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method and valuation sheets is
provided by Luehrman in an article in Harvard Business Review (Luehrman, 1998).
Though the framework is not that effective when the analysis requires absolute precision
however it gives a good starting point to analyze strategic decision making under uncertainty. On
top of giving a good head start the valuation and insights that the framework provides are
definitely better than the base case DCF analysis. Luehrman draws an analogy between an
investment opportunity before a company to a call option as the organization has a right to invest
but is not under the obligation to do so. Luehrman considers the case of a European Call Option
and then he tries to map the parameters of the investment opportunity over the parameters of the
European Call Option (Luehrman, 1998). The mapping is displayed in the graphic below.
3.
Methodology
This research attempts to find the value of the 2G spectrum in each of the service areas under
Metros, Category A and Category B which could serve as a basis for the upcoming auction. To
calculate the value of the 2G spectrum allotment, it has been considered as a project and then we
have tried to calculate the value of 1 Mhz of spectrum block for which the methodology has been
explained below,
A discounted cash flow analysis has been done on the expected earnings (cash-flows)
which would accrue in a service area from 2G operations, considering the current level of
revenues. The DCF analysis serves as the base case for our real option valuation purpose and
some of the outputs which would be generated in the process of doing DCF would be used to
calculate the option value of the project. The projections and assumptions used for estimating the
future earnings/cash-flows are explained in a later chapter.
Sensitivity analysis is done on the NPV obtained from the DCF model to see the risk
associated with the project.
Real option valuation is the last step in the valuation process to calculate the value of the
option. The model which is used is explained in a further section.

3.1 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Under the purview of discounted cash flow valuation the following two methods are used,
Net Present Value Method. Under NPV method, net present value of the company is
calculated by discounting the cash flows from a project at a risk adjusted rate of return. NPV is
the difference of the present value of cash inflows from the project and the present value of the
investment overlay that will go into the project.
=
(1 + )
Where,
T Useful life of the project
R Risk adjusted discount rate of the project
Cn Net Cash flow in period n inclusive of investment outlays
The above equation could be re-written as,

=
Where,
S Net present value of the cash inflows from the project
K Net present value of the investment overlay for the project
The figure thus arrived gives the value of spectrum. However, the price charged to the operator
must allow a reasonable rate of return on their investment. We have taken the value to be 20%6.
The shadow price of spectrum to be charged is then calculated using the formula.
20
! (
20%)
Though we discussed the disadvantages of the DCF valuation in the previous section, just to
reiterate, the main disadvantage of using NPV method is aptly highlighted by (Brandao, Dyer, &
Hahn, 2005) contending that NPV method doesnt take into consideration managerial flexibility
and hence strategies like wait and see and pilot project cant be taken into account while
valuing the project.
Since DCF valuation will serve as a base case scenario we will first try to calculate the NPV of
the project before doing a real option valuation.
3.2 Real Option Valuation
We will now discuss the model that we will use to calculate the value of the real option. For
calculating the value we will use the Black-Scholes model (Damodaran, 2000),
$ = .
)* =
&'(
. ()* ) .
ln 0 1 + 2
46
&+, (
+ 4 - 56
)- = )* 46
. ()- )
TRAI Report on the 2010 value of Spectrum in the 1800 MHz Band
Where,
Parameter
In context of Real Option
In context of Financial
Option
Present Value of cash flows expected

from the project
Stock Price
Opportunity Cost of not Expanding

(Explained Below)
Dividend Yield
Expected Competitive Advantage

Period/Rights for Expansion
Time to Expiration
rf
Risk free rate of return on 10 year GOI

bond
Risk free rate of return
Present Value of Capital Costs
Strike Price
()2
Volatility of Project Value
Volatility of Return on
Stock
N(d1) & N(d2) are normal cumulative distributions which gives us the range of the likelihood of
the real option being viable before expiration date.
In the context of current project the real option is the option to operate, expand and upgrade their
2G systems for the incumbent operators.
The inputs used in the above model are explained below,
1.
S Present value of cash flows is calculated from the assumptions explained in the
previous section and the output from DCF model is used as input in this model.
2.
K Present value of capital expenditure required to rollout 2G services. Considering that
most of the operators have already installed the required active infrastructure, this is the
opportunity cost of holding the infrastructure or the amount required to buy it from another
operator.
3.
q Opportunity cost of waiting and not rolling out 2G services. Although we have
calculated the cash flows for each year, it is difficult to predict the exact pattern of cash flows
which would be lost by waiting to roll out 2G services. To overcome this problem we have
assumed a dividend yield of 5%. Since useful life of the project is 20 years, 5% of the value of
the present value of cash flows could be considered as the dividend payments which we would
not receive in case we dont rollout 2G services immediately. The other cost of waiting is the
loss of market to competition which once lost is difficult to recapture.
4.
t This is the time period over which the option should be exercised lest the telecom
operators will lose competitive edge. On top of that TRAI has set certain rollout obligations
which involve covering 90% of the metro areas and 50% of DHQs within 2 years of allotment of
2G license which effectively translates the expansion of 2G services by a company as a series of
call options. However we are taking an approximation here that the telecom operators need to
rollout the 2G services within 2 years.
5.
rf Risk free rate on 10 year GOI. The yield on 10 year GOI bond is 7.94% in March7.
6.
Volatility of project is difficult to estimate and theoretically a Monte-Carlo analysis
needs to be done with all relevant probability distributions of the input variables. Since we dont
have the relevant probability distribution we have used annualized standard deviation of returns
of Bombay Stock Exchange Technology, Media and Telecom Index (BSE TECK) as a proxy
which is equal to ~28%.
4.
Data & Assumptions
The data for the purpose of valuation has been taken from public sources and sector reports. Data
has also been estimated for some of the years by taking assumptions. We will now discuss
various data points and assumptions. We will take the example of Maharashtra to show the
assumptions used. Assumptions for all the other states can be found in the Appendix.
4.1 Revenue Projections
To calculate future revenues and cash-flows it becomes important for us to look at the drivers of
the revenue. In telecommunication industry the important metrics which are looked at are the
number of subscribers and the average revenue per user (ARPU).
8
=9
<=
Now we have two variables to forecast on the basis of above equation. We will look into them
one by one. Since, we have both GSM and CDMA operators in a service area, we further split
into
>?@
and
AB@C
>?@
=9
:>?@
=9
:AB@C
>?@
And,
8
AB@C
AB@C
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=INR, accessed on
13/03/2011
4.2 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)

The ARPU figures have been taken from the quarterly performance report published by TRAI.
Figure 6: GSM Metro ARPU Trend
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Delhi
Mumbai
July-Sep'11
Apr-Jun'11
Jan-Mar'11
Oct-Dec'10
July-Sep'10
Apr-Jun'10
Jan-Mar'10
Oct-Dec'09
July-Sep'09
Apr-Jun'09
Jan-Mar'09
Oct-Dec'08
July-Sep'08
Kolkata
Figure 7: GSM Category-A ARPU Trend

300
250
200
Maharashtra
150
Gujarat
100
AP
Karnataka
50
TN
July-Sep'11
Apr-Jun'11
Jan-Mar'11
Oct-Dec'10
July-Sep'10
Apr-Jun'10
Jan-Mar'10
Oct-Dec'09
July-Sep'09
Apr-Jun'09
Jan-Mar'09
Oct-Dec'08
July-Sep'08
Figure 8: GSM Category-B ARPU Trend

300
Kerala
250
Punjab
200
Haryana
UP (W)
150
UP (E)
100
Rajasthan
50
MP
WB
0
1
10 11 12 13
Figure 9: GSM Category-C ARPU Trend

350
300
250
HP
200
Orissa
150
Bihar
100
Assam
50
NE
J&K
These trends indicate a flattening out of ARPU. Similar trends are observed in CDMA operators
also. Going forward, ARPUs are expected to remain stable, as have been covered in various
sector reports8. Even TRAI, in its valuation of 1800 Mhz spectrum assumes a flat ARPU9. For
our valuation, we assume that ARPUs fall by 1% in each service area in the next 2 years and
remain stable thereafter.
4.3 Subscriber Count
The subscriber count which had been growing at a huge pace has slowed down due to increased
penetration and saturation. Going forward the growth rate is expected to drop and remain stable.
In this paper, for GSM, we have used Dec11 monthly growth rate to find the annualized growth.
Over time, we assume that the growth rates would stabilize to 2% per annum. In case of CDMA,
8
9
IDFC-Indian wireless sector report dated 2/3/12

TRAI Report on 2010 value of spectrum in the 1800 MHz Band, dated Jan 30, 2011
most of the states have experienced very low rated of around 2%-4% and some even negative,
we have assumed a flat rate of 2% growth rate.
Figure 10: GSM Service Area wise Subscriber Growth Rates
Service Area
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Delhi
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Mumbai
North East
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
UP(E)
UP(W)
Kolkata
West Bengal
Monthly Annualized
4.2%
18%
5.6%
24%
3.5%
15%
1.9%
8%
3.4%
14%
4.8%
21%
5.6%
24%
-0.3%
-1%
2.1%
9%
3.8%
16%
3.1%
13%
4.3%
18%
1.1%
5%
4.7%
20%
4.8%
21%
4.0%
17%
3.2%
13%
2.8%
12%
2.1%
9%
4.1%
17%
2.6%
11%
2.5%
10%
4.4 Capital Expenditure

Capital expenditure is Indian telecom industry can be broadly divided into two segments,
1.
Investment in Passive Infrastructure Investment in passive infrastructure is not done by
telecom companies instead there are separate companies like Reliance Infratel and Indus Towers
who create passive infrastructure and then rent it out to various telecom companies.
2.
Investment in Active Infrastructure Telecom companies have to install their Base
Transceiver Stations (BTS) to rollout 2G services. The number of BTS installed during the
rollout phase shall determine our Capital Expenditure. Other costs include the cost of core
network.
The number of BTS installed again depends on the number of subscribers and the type of
technology (GSM or CDMA). We get the number of BTS required in each service area by
dividing the total number of subscribers in a service area by the Subs per BTS figure.
The number of subscribers supported by a BTS has been calculated by TRAI. For GSM,
numbers corresponding to 6.2 Mhz have been taken as this represents the contracted spectrum
recommended by TRAI. Similarly for CDMA, numbers corresponding to 5 Mhz have been
considered.
Figure 11: GSM Mobile Subscriber Density which can be served with 6.2 MHz
Inter Site
Distance (in
Metre)
Sq KM
Per BTS
BTSs
per Sq
KM
Traffic
per BTS
Subs
per BTS
Subs per
Sq Km
Total no. of
subs.
Which can
be served
300
400
500
600
700
800
1000
0.08
0.14
0.22
0.31
0.42
0.55
0.87
12.81
7.21
4.64
3.21
0.42
0.55
0.87
39.3
39.3
39.3
39.3
39.3
39.3
39.3
983
983
983
983
983
983
983
12596
7085
4535
3149
2314
1771
1134
35989
20244
12956
8997
6610
5061
3239
Source: TRAI
The total capital expenditure in each service area is thus obtained by multiplying cost of a BTS
by the number of BTS required
Figure 12: CDMA Mobile Subscriber Density which can be served with 5 MHz
Inter Site
Distance (in
Metre)
Sq KM
Per BTS
BTSs
per Sq
KM
Traffic
per BTS
700
1000
1200
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0.42
0.87
1.25
1.95
3.47
5.42
7.8
10.62
2.35
1.15
0.8
0.51
0.29
0.18
0.13
0.09
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
Capacity Total
for 3
Capacity
sector
with
70%
loading
312
218.4
312
218.4
312
218.4
312
218.4
312
218.4
312
218.4
312
218.4
312
218.4
Subs per
BTS
Subs
per Sq
Km
5460
5460
5460
5460
5460
5460
5460
5460
12857
6300
4375
2800
1575
1008
700
514
Total no. of
subs. Which
can be
served
51429
25200
17500
11200
6300
4032
2800
2057
Source: TRAI
Figure 13: Capital Expenditure
Item
Capex per BTS
Cost (Rs.)
600000
4.5 Operating Expenditure

The breakup of the operating expenses for a typical telecom operator in India has been taken
from a report prepared by FICCI in which they had given the industry wide cost structure with
various heads.
Figure 14: Operating Cost Structure in Typical GSM operator in India
Expense Head
Percentage
Driver
Net Interconnection Charges as % of Gross Revenues
20%
Gross Revenue
Network Operating Expenses
15%
Net Revenue
Sales & Distribution Expenses
7%
Net Revenue
IT Expenses
2%
Net Revenue
Service Expenses
3%
Net Revenue
Billing, Collection and Bad Debt
2%
Net Revenue
Marketing Expenses
3%
Net Revenue
Personnel Administration
5%
Net Revenue
Total Operating Expenses
37%
Net Revenue
Spectrum Usage Charge as % of AGR
4%
Net Revenue
Source: FICCI Report
4.6 Financing of Capital Expenditure and License Fees

Capital expenditure has been assumed to be paid up front. For financing we have assumed a debt
equity ratio of 1. For the purpose of valuation we have kept financing separate from the project
and have assumed that the industry will tend to maintain the debt and equity in the same ratio.
The debt equity ratio is taken as the average debt equity ratio of 3 telecom operators for the last 4
years as shown in figure below.
Figure 15: Average Debt Equity Ratio of Telecom Operators
Debt Equity Ratio

Company
2008
2009
2010
2011
Average
Bharti Airtel
0.47
0.33
0.28
0.14
0.305
Idea Cellular
1.95
1.84
0.67
0.57
1.2575
Reliance Communications
0.71
0.82
0.6
0.48
0.6525
Average
0.738
Source: Moneycontrol
4.7 Depreciation & Amortization

For depreciation of capital expenditure and amortization of license fees a period of 20 years has
been considered and straight line method has been assumed.
4.8 Cost of Capital
Weighted average cost of capital is calculated using the following formula,
D9
DE +
DF (1 6)
Where,
E
Cost of Equity (Calculated from CAPM)
Cost of Debt (Assumed to be 9.5%)
DE Weight of Equity in Capital Structure

DF Weight of Debt in Capital Structure
T Tax Rate (Assumed to be 30%)
For calculating Cost of Equity, Market Return on Nifty is calculated in 2010 CY. Risk free rate
of return is considered as yield on 10 Year GOI bonds which is 7.94% in March. These values
have then been substituted in Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM),
E
+G(
Where,
G This is measure of systematic risk of the project.
3
H
Risk free rate of return

Rate of return on market
3)
For calculating G two methods have been considered,

1.
Median beta of telecom companies has been taken.
2.
Beta of a portfolio of stocks of telecom companies have been taken with weights of each
stock being equal to their weight in the combined market capitalization.

The two methods are illustrated in figure below.
Figure 16: Calculation of Beta
Company (Stock)
Beta
Market Capitalization (Crore)
Weight in Portfolio
Bharti Airtel
0.69
130103
69%
Idea Cellular
0.99
30762
16%
1.6
19309
10%
1.19
1950
1%
0.5
6708
4%
Reliance Communications
MTNL
TATA Communications
Median Beta
0.99
Portfolio Beta
0.83
Source: Reuters
WACC calculations are shown in the figure below.

Figure 17: Cost of Capital Calculations
Debt-Equity Ratio
0.99
Weight of Debt
0.50
Weight of Equity
0.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate
Effective Cost of Debt
9%
30%
6%
Cost of Equity Calculations

Risk Free Rate on 10 Year GOI Bond
8.45%
Market Return
17%
Beta
1.06
Cost of Equity
17.86%
Cost of Capital
12.11%
5.
Results
In this chapter first the base case DCF valuation results are presented along with the sensitivity
analysis of key variables. After the DCF valuation, real option value of the license has been
given which is calculated on the basis of Chapter 4 & 5. The results shown are for Maharashtra
service area. Result for other service areas can be found in the Appendix.
5.1 DCF Valuation
5.1.1
NPV
The value of 1 MHz of spectrum is obtained by dividing the DCF value obtained for Maharashtra
by the total amount of spectrum allotted so far10.
We then calculated the shadow price of spectrum using the methodology given in chapter 5.
It is found out to be Rs. 1077.4 mn or 107.74 crores.
This is the price that an operator might be willing to pay for 1 MHz of spectrum in Maharashtra
and should be considered while deciding whether to operate in a service area or not.
5.1.2
Sensitivity Analysis
From the understanding of the DCF model, there are many critical factors which decide the
outcome of the DCF and hence they need to be checked for the variance that can be seen in case
the base assumptions are not met. These critical parameters have been selected as Subscriber
adjustment factor and ARPU adjustment factor, amount of capital invested and cost of capital.
Subscriber adjustment factor is important parameter as this decides the number of mobile users
which in turn affects the revenues. Similarly ARPU adjustment factor has a direct bearing on the
revenues.
Like in any project, cost of capital plays an important role in the values derived from the project
(starting 2G telecom operations). Also, since capital investment in infrastructure is a direct
outflow of cash, it too has an impact on the value.
10
TRAI Recommendation on Spectrum Management and Licensing Framework, dated 11 May 2010
Figure 18: Sensitivity analysis using subscriber and ARPU adjustment factor
Subscriber Adjustment Factor
ARPU
Adjustment
Factor
1504.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.7
1207
1379
1552
1724
1897
2069
2242
0.8
1156
1321
1486
1651
1816
1981
2146
0.9
1104
1262
1420
1578
1736
1893
2051
1.0
1053
1204
1354
1505
1655
1805
1956
1.1
1002
1145
1288
1431
1574
1717
1861
1.2
951
1086
1222
1358
1494
1630
1765
1.3
899
1028
1156
1285
1413
1542
1670
Figure 19: Sensitivity analysis using Cost of Capital and Capital Investment
Capital Investment Factor

1504.5
0.7 0.8 0.9
10%
294 242 202
Cost
11%
285 233 193
of
12%
277 224 184
Capital 13%
268 216 175
14%
259 207 167
1.0
171
162
153
144
135
1.1
145
136
127
118
109
1.2
124
115
106
97
88
1.3
107
98
88
79
70
5.2 Real Option Valuation

The value of the Real option was calculated according to the variables as explained in 4th
chapter and has been given below:
Figure 20: Real Option Value of 1 MHz in Maharashtra
Parameters
Value
S (Bn)
216.258
K (Bn)
99.677
rf
8.45%
5%
t (years)
28%
Output
Value
D1
2.33
D2
1.93
N(D1)
99.005%
N(D2)
97.334%
1 MHz value (mn)
1324.6
This is the option price of 1 MHz of spectrum as it gives the operator the option to start its
telecom operation. The price takes into account the managerial flexibility and hence is higher
than that arrived using the DCF approach.
5.3 Comparison Spectrum value using DCF and ROV approach
A comparison of values obtained for service areas under Category A, Category B and Metros is
shown below. The higher values arrived using ROV approach is due to the consideration of
managerial flexibility.
Figure 21: DCF and ROV valuation of 1 MHz spectrum
Service Area
AndhraPradesh
Delhi
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
MadhyaPradesh
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Punjab
Rajasthan
TamilNadu
UP(E)
UP(W)
Kolkata
WestBengal
Himachal Pradesh
Bihar
Orissa
Assam
North East
Jammu&Kashmir
Total
Price of 1 Mhz Spectrum (Rs. Mn)

DCF Approach
ROV Approach
1505
1818
1244
1479
960
1174
286
365
1009
1218
852
1026
652
809
1077
1325
782
932
602
732
700
856
1465
1776
900
1116
603
766
341
420
423
555
111
139
639
802
274
350
386
465
246
296
290
345
15348
18761
6.
Conclusion and Recommendation
The motivation behind this research was to find the intrinsic and option value of the spectrum, 1
MHz in unit in service areas under Metros, Category A and Category B. This achieves greater
significance in the light of cancellation of licenses by the Supreme Court and the impending
spectrum auction.
The values for spectrum arrived using ROV approach were higher than those arrived using the
DCF approach. In other words we can say that Real option analysis has allowed us to look at the
option value embedded in the 2G spectrum allotment. This flexibility in the hands of the
managers is not adequately represented with a DCF analysis where in the timing of the
investment should be known/predicted beforehand. However such kind of information and
knowledge is rarely available at the time of planning and moreover in projects with high degree
of uncertainty and with irreversible investments. Real options analysis adequately captures this
flexibility and hence it results in higher valuation for the aggregate 2G spectrum. It would be
prudent for an operator to consider the two values as a range within which it can purchase 2G
spectrum. It is also recommended that in future while allocating telecom licenses or licenses in
sectors where high and irreversible investment is required and there is a scope for the licensees to
invest in phases or in modules, the government should consider real options methodology for
setting the price of the license, or the base price of the licenses in case the government decides to
follow an auction methodology to allocate the licenses to determine a more accurate price of the
license which takes into account the managerial flexibility.
The spectrum price range therefore for a pan India 1 Mhz of spectrum is Rs.1535 crores to
Rs.1876 crores. This is definitely higher than the price discovered in 2001 Rs.1658 crores for
6.2 Mhz of spectrum. However, we do not distinguish between the prices for initial spectrum
assignment and incremental spectrum assignment.
TRAI in its consultation paper in February has suggested 7 models for pricing the spectrum11. As
per the above models the price varies from Rs.620.48 crores (SBI PLR method) to Rs.3350.12
crores (3G auction price). The suggested price for spectrum beyond 6.2 Mhz is Rs.4571.85
crores. Comparing these prices with the values derived in this paper clearly suggest that the high
prices suggested by TRAI may be detrimental to the Indian telecom sector.
11
TRAI consultation paper on Auction of Spectrum dated 7 March 2012
7. References
1. Basili, M., & Fontini, F. (2003). The Option Value of the UK 3G Telecom Licenses. Info
5,3, pp. 48-52.
2. Damodaran, A. (2000). The promise of real options. Journal of Applied Corporate
Finance, Vol. 13, pp. 29-43.
3. Benaroch, M., & Kauffman, R. J. (1999). A Case for Using Real Options Pricing
Analysis To Evaluate Information Technology Project Investments. Information Systems
Research, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 70-86.
4. Sinha, P., & Mudgal, H. (2011). Valuation of 3G spectrum license in India: A real option
approach., MRPA Paper No. 31281
5. TRAI (2011, January 30), Report on the 2010 value of spectrum in the 1800 MHz Band
6. Plum Consulting (2011, March 1), Methodologies for Valuing Spectrum: Review of
Experts Report
7. TRAI (2012, January 9), The Indian Telecom Services Performance Indicators
8. TRAI (2012, March 7), Consultation Paper on Auction of Spectrum
9. Brandao, L. E., Dyer, J. S., & Hahn, W. J. (2005, June). Using Binomial Trees To Solve
Real-Option Valuation Problems. Decision Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 69-88
10. Leslie, K. J., & Michaels, M. P. (1997, Number 3). The real power of real options. The
McKinsey Quarterly.
11. Luehrman, T. A. (1998, July-August). Investment Oppurtunities as Real Options: Getting
Started on the Numbers. Harvard Business Review.
12. Mastroeni, L., & Naldi, M. (2010). A real options model for the transferability value of
telecommunication licenses. Ann. Telecommun., 65, pp. 201-210
13. Mkhize, M., & Moja, N. (2009). The application of real option valuation techniques in
the cellulartelecommunication industry in South Africa. S. Afr.J.Bus.Manage.
14. IDFC. (2012). Indian Wireless
8.
APPENDIX
8.1 Maharashtra
Gross Revenues (mn)
GSM
No. of subscribers (mn)
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Spectrum Usage (Mhz)
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Interconnection charges
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
Spectrum Usage Charge as % of
License Fee as % of AGR
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Shadow Price of Spectrum
Total Spectrum Allotted (Mhz)
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
63046
2012
72081
2013
80086
2014
87394
2015
93849
2016
99116
2017
102894
2018
104952
2019
107051
2020
109192
2021
111376
2022
113604
2023
115876
2024
118193
2025
120557
2026
122968
2027
125428
2028
127936
2029
130495
2030
133105
2031
135767
56.65
66.85
18%
79
76.20
14%
78
83.82
10%
78
90.53
8%
78
95.96
6%
78
99.80
4%
78
101.80
2%
78
103.83
2%
78
105.91
2%
78
108.03
2%
78
110.19
2%
78
112.39
2%
78
114.64
2%
78
116.93
2%
78
119.27
2%
78
121.66
2%
78
124.09
2%
78
126.57
2%
78
129.10
2%
78
131.68
2%
78
10.37
2%
70
10.58
2%
69
10.79
2%
69
11.01
2%
69
11.23
2%
69
11.45
2%
69
11.68
2%
69
11.91
2%
69
12.15
2%
69
12.39
2%
69
12.64
2%
69
12.90
2%
69
13.15
2%
69
13.42
2%
69
13.69
2%
69
13.96
2%
69
14.24
2%
69
14.52
2%
69
14.81
2%
69
15.11
2%
69
14416
57665
16017
64069
17479
69915
18770
75079
19823
79293
20579
82316
20990
83962
21410
85641
21838
87354
22275
89101
22721
90883
23175
92701
23639
94555
24111
96446
24594
98375
25086
100342
25587
102349
26099
104396
26621
106484
27153
108614
8650
4037
1153
1730
1153
1730
2883
21336
2307
5767
28256
4711
4984
18561
5568
12993
4711
4984
22688
9610
4485
1281
1922
1281
1922
3203
23705
2563
6407
31394
4711
4984
21699
6510
15189
4711
4984
24884
10487
4894
1398
2097
1398
2097
3496
25869
2797
6992
34258
4711
4984
24564
7369
17195
4711
4984
26889
11262
5256
1502
2252
1502
2252
3754
27779
3003
7508
36789
4711
4984
27094
8128
18966
4711
4984
28661
11894
5550
1586
2379
1586
2379
3965
29338
3172
7929
38853
4711
4984
29159
8748
20411
4711
4984
30106
12347
5762
1646
2469
1646
2469
4116
30457
3293
8232
40335
4711
4984
30640
9192
21448
4711
4984
31143
12594
5877
1679
2519
1679
2519
4198
31066
3358
8396
41141
4711
4984
31447
9434
22013
4711
4984
31707
12846
5995
1713
2569
1713
2569
4282
31687
3426
8564
41964
4711
4984
32269
9681
22589
4711
4984
32283
13103
6115
1747
2621
1747
2621
4368
32321
3494
8735
42803
4711
4984
33109
9933
23176
4711
4984
32871
13365
6237
1782
2673
1782
2673
4455
32967
3564
8910
43659
4711
4984
33965
10189
23775
4711
4984
33470
13632
6362
1818
2726
1818
2726
4544
33627
3635
9088
44533
4711
4984
34838
10451
24387
4711
4984
34081
13905
6489
1854
2781
1854
2781
4635
34299
3708
9270
45423
4711
4984
35729
10719
25010
4711
4984
34705
14183
6619
1891
2837
1891
2837
4728
34985
3782
9455
46332
4711
4984
36637
10991
25646
4711
4984
35341
14467
6751
1929
2893
1929
2893
4822
35685
3858
9645
47258
4711
4984
37564
11269
26295
4711
4984
35989
14756
6886
1967
2951
1967
2951
4919
36399
3935
9837
48204
4711
4984
38509
11553
26956
4711
4984
36651
15051
7024
2007
3010
2007
3010
5017
37127
4014
10034
49168
4711
4984
39473
11842
27631
4711
4984
37326
15352
7164
2047
3070
2047
3070
5117
37869
4094
10235
50151
4711
4984
40456
12137
28319
4711
4984
38014
15659
7308
2088
3132
2088
3132
5220
38627
4176
10440
51154
4711
4984
41459
12438
29021
4711
4984
38716
15973
7454
2130
3195
2130
3195
5324
39399
4259
10648
52177
4711
4984
42482
12745
29738
4711
4984
39432
16292
7603
2172
3258
2172
3258
5431
40187
4345
10861
53221
4711
4984
43526
13058
30468
4711
4984
40163
80
69.4
10.17
71
15
12609
50437
7566
3531
1009
1513
1009
1513
2522
18662
2017
5044
24714
4711
4711
-99677
116580
90933
84.4
1077.4
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
111797
84.4
1324.6
Cost of 1 MHz of spectrum (Rs. mn)

1077.4 0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
375 428 482
0.8
501 573 645
ARPU
0.9
628 717 807
Adjustment 1.0
754 862 970
Factor
1.1
881 1006 1132
1.2
1007 1151 1295
1.3
1133 1295 1457
DCF Sensitivity Analysis
1.0
536
716
897
1077
1258
1439
1619
1.1
589
788
986
1185
1384
1582
1781
1.2
643
859
1076
1293
1510
1726
1943
1.3
696
931
1166
1401
1635
1870
2105
Cost of
Capital

1077.4 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
1707 1638 1569
11%
1539 1468 1398
12%
1389 1317 1245
13%
1255 1181 1108
14%
1134 1060 985
1.0
1500
1327
1173
1035
911
1.1
1430
1256
1101
962
837
1.2
1361
1186
1029
888
762
1.3
1292
1115
957
815
688

1325
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
2030 1957 1884
11%
1835 1761 1686
12%
1661 1585 1509
13%
1505 1428 1351
14%
1366 1287 1210
1.0
1812
1612
1434
1276
1134
1.1
1739
1539
1360
1201
1060
1.2
1668
1466
1288
1129
988
1.3
1597
1395
1217
1059
919
Real Option Sensitivity Analysis

1325
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
500 571 643
0.8
640 731 822
ARPU
0.9
783 894 1006
Adjustment
1.0
927 1060 1192
Factor
1.1
1073 1226 1379
1.2
1219 1393 1567
1.3
1365 1560 1755
1.0
714
914
1118
1325
1533
1741
1950
1.1
786
1005
1230
1457
1686
1915
2145
1.2
857
1097
1342
1590
1839
2089
2340
1.3
928
1188
1453
1722
1992
2264
2535
Cost of
Capital
8.2
Andhra Pradesh
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
2011
81073
2012
92372
2013
103205
2014
111687
2015
118882
2016
124396
2017
127897
2018
129150
2019
130416
2020
131694
2021
132985
2022
134288
2023
135604
2024
136933
2025
138275
2026
139630
2027
140998
2028
142380
2029
143775
2030
145184
2031
146607
56.28
66.41
18%
104.9
75.71
14%
103.81
83.28
10%
102.77
89.94
8%
101.746
95.34
6%
100.73
99.16
4%
99.721
101.14
2%
98.724
103.16
2%
97.736
105.22
2%
96.759
107.33
2%
95.791
109.48
2%
94.834
111.66
2%
93.885
113.90
2%
92.946
116.18
2%
92.017
118.50
2%
91.097
120.87
2%
90.186
123.29
2%
89.284
125.75
2%
88.391
128.27
2%
87.507
130.83
2%
86.632
8.81
2%
83.3
8.98
2%
82.467
9.16
2%
81.642
9.35
2%
80.8259
9.53
2%
80.018
9.72
2%
79.217
9.92
2%
78.425
10.12
2%
77.641
10.32
2%
76.8646
10.52
2%
76.096
10.74
2%
75.335
10.95
2%
74.582
11.17
2%
73.836
11.39
2%
73.098
11.62
2%
72.367
11.85
2%
71.643
12.09
2%
70.926
12.33
2%
70.217
12.58
2%
69.515
12.83
2%
68.82
18474
73898
20641
82564
22337
89349
23776
95106
24879
99517
25579
102317
25830
103320
26083
104333
26339
105355
26597
106388
26858
107430
27121
108483
27387
109546
27655
110620
27926
111704
28200
112798
28476
113904
28755
115020
29037
116147
29321
117286
11085
5173
1478
2217
1478
2217
3695
27342
2956
7390
36210
4666
4937
26607
7982
18625
4666
4937
28228
12385
5779
1651
2477
1651
2477
4128
30549
3303
8256
40456
4666
4937
30853
9256
21597
4666
4937
31200
13402
6254
1787
2680
1787
2680
4467
33059
3574
8935
43781
4666
4937
34178
10253
23925
4666
4937
33528
14266
6657
1902
2853
1902
2853
4755
35189
3804
9511
46602
4666
4937
36999
11100
25899
4666
4937
35502
14928
6966
1990
2986
1990
2986
4976
36821
3981
9952
48763
4666
4937
39160
11748
27412
4666
4937
37015
15348
7162
2046
3070
2046
3070
5116
37857
4093
10232
50136
4666
4937
40532
12160
28373
4666
4937
37976
15498
7232
2066
3100
2066
3100
5166
38228
4133
10332
50627
4666
4937
41024
12307
28717
4666
4937
38320
15650
7303
2087
3130
2087
3130
5217
38603
4173
10433
51123
4666
4937
41520
12456
29064
4666
4937
38667
15803
7375
2107
3161
2107
3161
5268
38981
4214
10536
51624
4666
4937
42021
12606
29415
4666
4937
39018
15958
7447
2128
3192
2128
3192
5319
39363
4256
10639
52130
4666
4937
42527
12758
29769
4666
4937
39372
16115
7520
2149
3223
2149
3223
5372
39749
4297
10743
52641
4666
4937
43038
12911
30126
4666
4937
39730
16272
7594
2170
3254
2170
3254
5424
40139
4339
10848
53157
4666
4937
43553
13066
30487
4666
4937
40091
16432
7668
2191
3286
2191
3286
5477
40532
4382
10955
53678
4666
4937
44074
13222
30852
4666
4937
40455
16593
7743
2212
3319
2212
3319
5531
40929
4425
11062
54204
4666
4937
44600
13380
31220
4666
4937
40824
16756
7819
2234
3351
2234
3351
5585
41330
4468
11170
54735
4666
4937
45132
13539
31592
4666
4937
41195
16920
7896
2256
3384
2256
3384
5640
41735
4512
11280
55271
4666
4937
45668
13700
31968
4666
4937
41571
17086
7973
2278
3417
2278
3417
5695
42144
4556
11390
55813
4666
4937
46210
13863
32347
4666
4937
41950
17253
8051
2300
3451
2300
3451
5751
42557
4601
11502
56360
4666
4937
46757
14027
32730
4666
4937
42333
17422
8130
2323
3484
2323
3484
5807
42975
4646
11615
56912
4666
4937
47309
14193
33116
4666
4937
42720
17593
8210
2346
3519
2346
3519
5864
43396
4691
11729
57470
4666
4937
47867
14360
33507
4666
4937
43110
107
69.4
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
-98736
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
160384
125099
83.15
1504.5
8.63
85
13.75
16215
64858
9729
4540
1297
1946
1297
1946
3243
23998
2594
6486
31781
4666
4666
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
151155
83.15
1817.9

1504.5 0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
1207 1379 1552
0.8
1156 1321 1486
ARPU
0.9
1104 1262 1420
Adjustment 1.0
1053 1204 1354
Factor
1.1
1002 1145 1288
1.2
951 1086 1222
1.3
899 1028 1156
1.0
1724
1651
1578
1505
1431
1358
1285
1.1
1897
1816
1736
1655
1574
1494
1413
1.2
2069
1981
1893
1805
1717
1630
1542
1.3
2242
2146
2051
1956
1861
1765
1670

1504.5 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
294
242
202
Cost
11%
285
233
193
of
12%
277
224
184
Capital 13%
268
216
175
14%
259
207
167
1.0
171
162
153
144
135
1.1
145
136
127
118
109
1.2
124
115
106
97
88
1.3
107
98
88
79
70
1.0
205
196
186
177
167
1.1
176
166
157
147
138
1.2
151
142
133
123
114
1.3
131
122
113
104
95

1818
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
733 837 942
0.8
911 1041 1172
ARPU
0.9
1092 1247 1403
Adjustment
1.0
1273 1454 1636
Factor
1.1
1454 1662 1869
1.2
1635 1869 2103
1.3
1817 2076 2336
1.0
1046
1302
1559
1818
2077
2336
2596
1.1
1151
1432
1715
2000
2285
2570
2855
1.2
1256
1562
1871
2181
2492
2803
3115
1.3
1360
1692
2027
2363
2700
3037
3374

1818
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
349
288
242
Cost
11%
339
279
232
of
12%
329
269
223
Capital 13%
320
259
213
14%
310
250
204
8.3
Gujarat
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
53885
2012
59745
2013
64755
2014
69004
2015
72257
2016
74316
2017
76437
2018
77186
2019
77942
2020
78706
2021
79477
2022
80256
2023
81043
2024
81837
2025
82639
2026
83449
2027
84266
2028
85092
2029
85926
2030
86768
2031
87619
45.30
51.64
14%
90.16
56.81
10%
89.258
61.35
8%
88.366
65.03
6%
87.4822
67.63
4%
86.607
70.34
4%
85.741
71.75
2%
84.884
73.18
2%
84.035
74.64
2%
83.1947
76.14
2%
82.363
77.66
2%
81.539
79.21
2%
80.724
80.80
2%
79.916
82.41
2%
79.117
84.06
2%
78.326
85.74
2%
77.543
87.46
2%
76.767
89.21
2%
76
90.99
2%
75.24
92.81
2%
74.487
4.91
2%
65.66
5.01
2%
65.003
5.11
2%
64.353
5.21
2%
63.7098
5.32
2%
63.073
5.42
2%
62.442
5.53
2%
61.818
5.64
2%
61.199
5.76
2%
60.5874
5.87
2%
59.982
5.99
2%
59.382
6.11
2%
58.788
6.23
2%
58.2
6.36
2%
57.618
6.48
2%
57.042
6.61
2%
56.471
6.74
2%
55.907
6.88
2%
55.348
7.02
2%
54.794
7.16
2%
54.246
11949
47796
12951
51804
13801
55203
14451
57805
14863
59453
15287
61149
15437
61748
15588
62354
15741
62965
15895
63582
16051
64205
16209
64834
16367
65469
16528
66111
16690
66759
16853
67413
17018
68074
17185
68741
17354
69415
17524
70095
7169
3346
956
1434
956
1434
2390
17684
1912
4780
23420
3298
3489
16633
4990
11643
3298
3489
18430
7771
3626
1036
1554
1036
1554
2590
19168
2072
5180
25384
3298
3489
18597
5579
13018
3298
3489
19805
8280
3864
1104
1656
1104
1656
2760
20425
2208
5520
27050
3298
3489
20263
6079
14184
3298
3489
20971
8671
4046
1156
1734
1156
1734
2890
21388
2312
5781
28325
3298
3489
21538
6461
15077
3298
3489
21863
8918
4162
1189
1784
1189
1784
2973
21998
2378
5945
29132
3298
3489
22345
6704
15642
3298
3489
22428
9172
4280
1223
1834
1223
1834
3057
22625
2446
6115
29963
3298
3489
23176
6953
16224
3298
3489
23010
9262
4322
1235
1852
1235
1852
3087
22847
2470
6175
30257
3298
3489
23470
7041
16429
3298
3489
23216
9353
4365
1247
1871
1247
1871
3118
23071
2494
6235
30553
3298
3489
23767
7130
16637
3298
3489
23423
9445
4408
1259
1889
1259
1889
3148
23297
2519
6296
30853
3298
3489
24066
7220
16846
3298
3489
23633
9537
4451
1272
1907
1272
1907
3179
23525
2543
6358
31155
3298
3489
24368
7311
17058
3298
3489
23845
9631
4494
1284
1926
1284
1926
3210
23756
2568
6420
31460
3298
3489
24674
7402
17272
3298
3489
24058
9725
4538
1297
1945
1297
1945
3242
23989
2593
6483
31769
3298
3489
24982
7495
17487
3298
3489
24274
9820
4583
1309
1964
1309
1964
3273
24224
2619
6547
32080
3298
3489
25293
7588
17705
3298
3489
24492
9917
4628
1322
1983
1322
1983
3306
24461
2644
6611
32394
3298
3489
25608
7682
17925
3298
3489
24712
10014
4673
1335
2003
1335
2003
3338
24701
2670
6676
32712
3298
3489
25925
7778
18148
3298
3489
24934
10112
4719
1348
2022
1348
2022
3371
24943
2697
6741
33032
3298
3489
26246
7874
18372
3298
3489
25159
10211
4765
1361
2042
1361
2042
3404
25187
2723
6807
33356
3298
3489
26569
7971
18599
3298
3489
25385
10311
4812
1375
2062
1375
2062
3437
25434
2750
6874
33683
3298
3489
26896
8069
18827
3298
3489
25614
10412
4859
1388
2082
1388
2082
3471
25683
2777
6941
34013
3298
3489
27226
8168
19059
3298
3489
25845
10514
4907
1402
2103
1402
2103
3505
25935
2804
7009
34346
3298
3489
27560
8268
19292
3298
3489
26079
92
60.4
4.82
67
12.5
10777
43108
6466
3018
862
1293
862
1293
2155
15950
1724
4311
21123
3298
3298
89738
69995
72.9
960.16
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
85555
72.9
1173.6

960.2 0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
346 396 445 495
0.8
455 520 585 650
ARPU
0.9
564 644 725 805
Adjustment 1.0
672 768 864 960
Factor
1.1
781 892 1004 1115
1.2
889 1016 1143 1270
1.3
998 1140 1283 1425
1.1
544
715
886
1056
1227
1397
1568
1.2
594
780
966
1152
1338
1524
1710
1.3
643
845
1047
1248
1450
1651
1853

960.2 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
202
166
138
Cost
11%
195
159
130
of
12%
188
151
123
Capital 13%
181
144
116
14%
174
137
109
1.0
115
108
101
93
86
1.1
97
90
83
75
68
1.2
82
75
68
60
53
1.3
70
62
55
48
40
1.0
140
132
124
117
109
1.1
119
111
103
96
89
1.2
101
94
87
79
73
1.3
87
80
73
66
59

1174 0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
452 516 581 645
0.8
573 655 737 819
ARPU
0.9
697 796 896 995
Adjustment
1.0
822 939 1056 1174
Factor
1.1
947 1082 1217 1353
1.2
1072 1226 1379 1532
1.3
1198 1369 1540 1712
1.1
710
901
1095
1291
1488
1685
1883
1.2
775
983
1195
1408
1623
1838
2054
1.3
839
1065
1294
1526
1758
1992
2225

1174 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
240
198
165
Cost
11%
233
190
158
of
12%
225
183
150
Capital 13%
217
175
142
14%
210
167
135
8.4
Karnataka
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
64144
2012
67989
2013
72235
2014
75495
2015
78912
2016
81091
2017
83332
2018
84149
2019
84974
2020
85806
2021
86647
2022
87496
2023
88354
2024
89220
2025
90094
2026
90977
2027
91869
2028
92769
2029
93678
2030
94596
2031
95523
45.65
49.76
9%
100.9
53.74
8%
99.931
56.96
6%
98.931
60.38
6%
97.942
62.80
4%
96.963
65.31
4%
95.993
66.61
2%
95.033
67.95
2%
94.083
69.30
2%
93.1418
70.69
2%
92.21
72.10
2%
91.288
73.55
2%
90.375
75.02
2%
89.472
76.52
2%
88.577
78.05
2%
87.691
79.61
2%
86.814
81.20
2%
85.946
82.83
2%
85.087
84.48
2%
84.236
86.17
2%
83.393
6.84
2%
94.08
6.97
2%
93.139
7.11
2%
92.208
7.26
2%
91.2857
7.40
2%
90.373
7.55
2%
89.469
7.70
2%
88.574
7.85
2%
87.689
8.01
2%
86.8118
8.17
2%
85.944
8.33
2%
85.084
8.50
2%
84.233
8.67
2%
83.391
8.84
2%
82.557
9.02
2%
81.732
9.20
2%
80.914
9.39
2%
80.105
9.57
2%
79.304
9.76
2%
78.511
9.96
2%
77.726
13598
54391
14447
57788
15099
60396
15782
63130
16218
64873
16666
66666
16830
67319
16995
67979
17161
68645
17329
69318
17499
69997
17671
70683
17844
71376
18019
72075
18195
72782
18374
73495
18554
74215
18736
74942
18919
75677
19105
76418
8159
3807
1088
1632
1088
1632
2720
20125
2176
5439
26652
3083
3262
20307
6092
14215
3083
3262
20560
8668
4045
1156
1734
1156
1734
2889
21382
2312
5779
28316
3083
3262
21971
6591
15380
3083
3262
21725
9059
4228
1208
1812
1208
1812
3020
22346
2416
6040
29594
3083
3262
23249
6975
16274
3083
3262
22619
9469
4419
1263
1894
1263
1894
3156
23358
2525
6313
30934
3083
3262
24589
7377
17212
3083
3262
23557
9731
4541
1297
1946
1297
1946
3244
24003
2595
6487
31788
3083
3262
25443
7633
17810
3083
3262
24155
10000
4667
1333
2000
1333
2000
3333
24666
2667
6667
32666
3083
3262
26321
7896
18425
3083
3262
24770
10098
4712
1346
2020
1346
2020
3366
24908
2693
6732
32986
3083
3262
26641
7992
18649
3083
3262
24994
10197
4759
1360
2039
1360
2039
3399
25152
2719
6798
33310
3083
3262
26965
8089
18875
3083
3262
25220
10297
4805
1373
2059
1373
2059
3432
25399
2746
6865
33636
3083
3262
27291
8187
19104
3083
3262
25449
10398
4852
1386
2080
1386
2080
3466
25648
2773
6932
33966
3083
3262
27621
8286
19334
3083
3262
25679
10500
4900
1400
2100
1400
2100
3500
25899
2800
7000
34299
3083
3262
27954
8386
19567
3083
3262
25912
10602
4948
1414
2120
1414
2120
3534
26153
2827
7068
34635
3083
3262
28290
8487
19803
3083
3262
26148
10706
4996
1428
2141
1428
2141
3569
26409
2855
7138
34974
3083
3262
28629
8589
20040
3083
3262
26385
10811
5045
1442
2162
1442
2162
3604
26668
2883
7208
35317
3083
3262
28972
8692
20280
3083
3262
26625
10917
5095
1456
2183
1456
2183
3639
26929
2911
7278
35663
3083
3262
29318
8795
20523
3083
3262
26868
11024
5145
1470
2205
1470
2205
3675
27193
2940
7349
36012
3083
3262
29667
8900
20767
3083
3262
27112
11132
5195
1484
2226
1484
2226
3711
27460
2969
7422
36365
3083
3262
30020
9006
21014
3083
3262
27359
11241
5246
1499
2248
1499
2248
3747
27729
2998
7494
36722
3083
3262
30377
9113
21264
3083
3262
27609
11352
5297
1514
2270
1514
2270
3784
28000
3027
7568
37082
3083
3262
30737
9221
21516
3083
3262
27861
11463
5349
1528
2293
1528
2293
3821
28275
3057
7642
37445
3083
3262
31100
9330
21770
3083
3262
28115
103
69.4
6.70
96
13.75
12829
51315
7697
3592
1026
1539
1026
1539
2566
18987
2053
5131
25144
3083
3083
-65237
107539
83880
83.15
1008.8
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
101288
83.15
1218.1

1008.8 0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
393 449 505
0.8
497 568 639
ARPU
0.9
602 688 774
Adjustment 1.0
706 807 908
Factor
1.1
811 926 1042
1.2
915 1046 1177
1.3
1020 1165 1311
1.0
561
710
859
1009
1158
1307
1457
1.1
617
781
945
1110
1274
1438
1602
1.2
673
852
1031
1211
1390
1569
1748
1.3
729
923
1117
1311
1505
1700
1894

1008.8 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
209
174
146
Cost
11%
203
168
141
of
12%
197
162
135
Capital 13%
191
156
129
14%
186
150
123
1.0
125
119
113
107
101
1.1
107
101
95
89
83
1.2
93
87
81
75
69
1.3
80
74
69
63
57
1.0
150
143
137
130
124
1.1
129
123
117
110
104
1.2
112
106
100
94
87
1.3
98
92
86
80
74

1218
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
492 562 633
0.8
612 699 786
ARPU
0.9
732 836 941
Adjustment
1.0
853 975 1096
Factor
1.1
974 1113 1252
1.2
1095 1251 1408
1.3
1216 1390 1563
1.0
703
874
1046
1218
1391
1564
1737
1.1
773
961
1150
1340
1530
1720
1911
1.2
844
1048
1255
1462
1669
1877
2085
1.3
914
1136
1359
1584
1808
2033
2258

1218
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
247
206
175
Cost
11%
241
200
168
of
12%
235
194
162
Capital 13%
228
187
156
14%
222
181
149
8.5
Tamil Nadu
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
88541
2012
96503
2013
102770
2014
107569
2015
112603
2016
115795
2017
119080
2018
120247
2019
121425
2020
122615
2021
123817
2022
125030
2023
126256
2024
127493
2025
128742
2026
130004
2027
131278
2028
132565
2029
133864
2030
135176
2031
136500
67.33
75.41
12%
98.98
81.45
8%
97.99
86.33
6%
97.01
91.51
6%
96.0402
95.17
4%
95.08
98.98
4%
94.129
100.96
2%
93.188
102.98
2%
92.256
105.04
2%
91.3333
107.14
2%
90.42
109.28
2%
89.516
111.47
2%
88.621
113.70
2%
87.734
115.97
2%
86.857
118.29
2%
85.988
120.66
2%
85.129
123.07
2%
84.277
125.53
2%
83.435
128.04
2%
82.6
130.60
2%
81.774
7.19
2%
80.36
7.33
2%
79.556
7.48
2%
78.761
7.63
2%
77.9732
7.78
2%
77.193
7.94
2%
76.422
8.10
2%
75.657
8.26
2%
74.901
8.42
2%
74.1518
8.59
2%
73.41
8.76
2%
72.676
8.94
2%
71.949
9.12
2%
71.23
9.30
2%
70.518
9.48
2%
69.812
9.67
2%
69.114
9.87
2%
68.423
10.07
2%
67.739
10.27
2%
67.062
10.47
2%
66.391
19301
77203
20554
82216
21514
86055
22521
90083
23159
92636
23816
95264
24049
96198
24285
97140
24523
98092
24763
99054
25006
100024
25251
101004
25499
101994
25748
102994
26001
104003
26256
105022
26513
106052
26773
107091
27035
108140
27300
109200
11580
5404
1544
2316
1544
2316
3860
28565
3088
7720
37829
4643
4912
28274
8482
19792
4643
4912
29347
12332
5755
1644
2466
1644
2466
4111
30420
3289
8222
40286
4643
4912
30730
9219
21511
4643
4912
31067
12908
6024
1721
2582
1721
2582
4303
31841
3442
8606
42167
4643
4912
32612
9784
22828
4643
4912
32384
13512
6306
1802
2702
1802
2702
4504
33331
3603
9008
44141
4643
4912
34585
10376
24210
4643
4912
33765
13895
6485
1853
2779
1853
2779
4632
34275
3705
9264
45392
4643
4912
35836
10751
25085
4643
4912
34641
14290
6668
1905
2858
1905
2858
4763
35248
3811
9526
46679
4643
4912
37124
11137
25987
4643
4912
35542
14430
6734
1924
2886
1924
2886
4810
35593
3848
9620
47137
4643
4912
37582
11274
26307
4643
4912
35862
14571
6800
1943
2914
1943
2914
4857
35942
3886
9714
47599
4643
4912
38043
11413
26630
4643
4912
36186
14714
6866
1962
2943
1962
2943
4905
36294
3924
9809
48065
4643
4912
38510
11553
26957
4643
4912
36512
14858
6934
1981
2972
1981
2972
4953
36650
3962
9905
48536
4643
4912
38981
11694
27287
4643
4912
36842
15004
7002
2000
3001
2000
3001
5001
37009
4001
10002
49012
4643
4912
39457
11837
27620
4643
4912
37175
15151
7070
2020
3030
2020
3030
5050
37372
4040
10100
49492
4643
4912
39937
11981
27956
4643
4912
37511
15299
7140
2040
3060
2040
3060
5100
37738
4080
10199
49977
4643
4912
40422
12127
28295
4643
4912
37851
15449
7210
2060
3090
2060
3090
5150
38108
4120
10299
50467
4643
4912
40912
12274
28638
4643
4912
38193
15600
7280
2080
3120
2080
3120
5200
38481
4160
10400
50962
4643
4912
41406
12422
28984
4643
4912
38540
15753
7352
2100
3151
2100
3151
5251
38858
4201
10502
51461
4643
4912
41906
12572
29334
4643
4912
38889
15908
7424
2121
3182
2121
3182
5303
39239
4242
10605
51965
4643
4912
42410
12723
29687
4643
4912
39242
16064
7496
2142
3213
2142
3213
5355
39624
4284
10709
52475
4643
4912
42919
12876
30044
4643
4912
39599
16221
7570
2163
3244
2163
3244
5407
40012
4326
10814
52989
4643
4912
43434
13030
30403
4643
4912
39959
16380
7644
2184
3276
2184
3276
5460
40404
4368
10920
53508
4643
4912
43953
13186
30767
4643
4912
40322
101
67
7.05
82
12.5
17708
70833
10625
4958
1417
2125
1417
2125
3542
26208
2833
7083
34708
4643
4643
-98243
149343
116487
79.5
1465.3
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
141162
79.5
1775.6

1465.3 0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
558 638 717
0.8
714 816 918
ARPU
0.9
870 994 1118
Adjustment 1.0
1026 1172 1319
Factor
1.1
1182 1350 1519
1.2
1338 1529 1720
1.3
1493 1707 1920
1.0
797
1020
1242
1465
1688
1911
2134
1.1
877
1122
1367
1612
1857
2102
2347
1.2
956
1224
1491
1758
2026
2293
2560
1.3
1036
1326
1615
1905
2194
2484
2774

1465.3 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
306
253
213
Cost
11%
297
244
203
of
12%
288
235
194
Capital 13%
278
225
185
14%
269
216
175
1.0
181
171
162
152
143
1.1
154
145
136
126
117
1.2
133
123
114
104
95
1.3
114
105
96
86
77
1.0
217
207
197
187
177
1.1
187
177
167
157
147
1.2
162
152
142
132
123
1.3
140
131
121
112
103

1776
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
707 808 909
0.8
884 1010 1136
ARPU
0.9
1063 1215 1367
Adjustment
1.0
1243 1420 1598
Factor
1.1
1423 1627 1830
1.2
1604 1833 2062
1.3
1785 2040 2295
1
1010
1263
1518
1776
2033
2292
2550
1.1
1111
1389
1670
1953
2237
2521
2805
1.2
1211
1515
1822
2131
2440
2750
3060
1.3
1312
1641
1974
2308
2643
2979
3315

1776
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
363
301
254
Cost
11%
353
291
244
of
12%
343
281
234
Capital 13%
333
271
224
14%
323
261
214
8.6
Delhi
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
62368
2012
65343
2013
68122
2014
69911
2015
70597
2016
71288
2017
71987
2018
72693
2019
73405
2020
74124
2021
74851
2022
75584
2023
76325
2024
77073
2025
77828
2026
78591
2027
79361
2028
80139
2029
80924
2030
81717
2031
82518
30.81
33.28
8%
135.2
35.27
6%
133.89
36.68
4%
132.55
37.42
2%
131.223
38.17
2%
129.91
38.93
2%
128.61
39.71
2%
127.33
40.50
2%
126.05
41.31
2%
124.792
42.14
2%
123.54
42.98
2%
122.31
43.84
2%
121.09
44.72
2%
119.87
45.61
2%
118.68
46.52
2%
117.49
47.45
2%
116.31
48.40
2%
115.15
49.37
2%
114
50.36
2%
112.86
51.37
2%
111.73
10.71
2%
88.2
10.93
2%
87.318
11.15
2%
86.445
11.37
2%
85.5804
11.60
2%
84.725
11.83
2%
83.877
12.07
2%
83.039
12.31
2%
82.208
12.55
2%
81.3861
12.80
2%
80.572
13.06
2%
79.766
13.32
2%
78.969
13.59
2%
78.179
13.86
2%
77.397
14.14
2%
76.623
14.42
2%
75.857
14.71
2%
75.099
15.00
2%
74.348
15.30
2%
73.604
15.61
2%
72.868
13069
52274
13624
54497
13982
55929
14119
56477
14258
57031
14397
57590
14539
58154
14681
58724
14825
59299
14970
59881
15117
60467
15265
61060
15415
61658
15566
62263
15718
62873
15872
63489
16028
64111
16185
64739
16343
65374
16504
66015
7841
3659
1045
1568
1045
1568
2614
19341
2091
5227
25614
1935
2047
21632
6489
15142
1935
2047
19125
8175
3815
1090
1635
1090
1635
2725
20164
2180
5450
26704
1935
2047
22721
6816
15905
1935
2047
19887
8389
3915
1119
1678
1119
1678
2796
20694
2237
5593
27405
1935
2047
23422
7027
16396
1935
2047
20379
8472
3953
1130
1694
1130
1694
2824
20897
2259
5648
27674
1935
2047
23691
7107
16584
1935
2047
20567
8555
3992
1141
1711
1141
1711
2852
21101
2281
5703
27945
1935
2047
23962
7189
16774
1935
2047
20756
8638
4031
1152
1728
1152
1728
2879
21308
2304
5759
28219
1935
2047
24236
7271
16965
1935
2047
20948
8723
4071
1163
1745
1163
1745
2908
21517
2326
5815
28495
1935
2047
24513
7354
17159
1935
2047
21142
8809
4111
1174
1762
1174
1762
2936
21728
2349
5872
28775
1935
2047
24792
7438
17354
1935
2047
21337
8895
4151
1186
1779
1186
1779
2965
21941
2372
5930
29057
1935
2047
25074
7522
17552
1935
2047
21535
8982
4192
1198
1796
1198
1796
2994
22156
2395
5988
29341
1935
2047
25359
7608
17751
1935
2047
21734
9070
4233
1209
1814
1209
1814
3023
22373
2419
6047
29629
1935
2047
25646
7694
17952
1935
2047
21935
9159
4274
1221
1832
1221
1832
3053
22592
2442
6106
29919
1935
2047
25937
7781
18156
1935
2047
22138
9249
4316
1233
1850
1233
1850
3083
22814
2466
6166
30213
1935
2047
26230
7869
18361
1935
2047
22344
9339
4358
1245
1868
1245
1868
3113
23037
2491
6226
30509
1935
2047
26526
7958
18568
1935
2047
22551
9431
4401
1257
1886
1257
1886
3144
23263
2515
6287
30808
1935
2047
26825
8047
18777
1935
2047
22760
9523
4444
1270
1905
1270
1905
3174
23491
2540
6349
31110
1935
2047
27127
8138
18989
1935
2047
22972
9617
4488
1282
1923
1282
1923
3206
23721
2564
6411
31414
1935
2047
27432
8229
19202
1935
2047
23185
9711
4532
1295
1942
1295
1942
3237
23954
2590
6474
31722
1935
2047
27740
8322
19418
1935
2047
23400
9806
4576
1307
1961
1307
1961
3269
24188
2615
6537
32033
1935
2047
28050
8415
19635
1935
2047
23618
9902
4621
1320
1980
1320
1980
3301
24425
2641
6601
32347
1935
2047
28364
8509
19855
1935
2047
23838
138
53.6
10.50
90
15
12474
49894
7484
3493
998
1497
998
1497
2495
18461
1996
4989
24448
1935
1935
-40950
109431
85356
68.6
1244.3
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
101490
68.6
1479.4

1244.3 0.7
0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
288 330 371 412
0.8
386 288 288 288
ARPU
0.9
483 288 288 288
Adjustment 1.0
580 288 288 288
Factor
1.1
677 288 288 288
1.2
775 288 288 288
1.3
872 288 288 288
1.1
453
288
288
288
288
288
288
1.2
494
288
288
288
288
288
288
1.3
536
288
288
288
288
288
288

1244.3 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
258
219
189
Cost
11%
254
215
184
of
12%
249
210
180
Capital 13%
245
206
175
14%
240
201
171
1.0
165
160
156
151
147
1.1
145
141
136
132
127
1.2
129
124
120
115
111
1.3
115
111
106
102
97
1.0
195
190
185
180
175
1.1
172
167
162
157
153
1.2
153
148
143
139
134
1.3
137
132
127
123
118

1479
1
1
1
1
0.7
500 571 643 714
0.8
640 500 500 500
ARPU
0.9
783 500 500 500
Adjustment
1.0
927 500 500 500
Factor
1.1
1073 500 500 500
1.2
1219 500 500 500
1.3
1365 500 500 500
1
786
500
500
500
500
500
500
1
857
500
500
500
500
500
500
1
928
500
500
500
500
500
500

1479
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
303
258
223
Cost
11%
298
253
218
of
12%
293
248
213
Capital 13%
289
243
208
14%
284
238
203
8.7
Mumbai
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
53108
2012
54317
2013
55702
2014
57125
2015
57685
2016
58250
2017
58821
2018
59397
2019
59980
2020
60567
2021
61161
2022
61760
2023
62366
2024
62977
2025
63594
2026
64217
2027
64846
2028
65482
2029
66124
2030
66772
2031
67426
28.58
30.01
5%
119.6
31.21
4%
118.36
32.45
4%
117.18
33.10
2%
116.009
33.76
2%
114.85
34.44
2%
113.7
35.13
2%
112.56
35.83
2%
111.44
36.55
2%
110.323
37.28
2%
109.22
38.02
2%
108.13
38.79
2%
107.05
39.56
2%
105.98
40.35
2%
104.92
41.16
2%
103.87
41.98
2%
102.83
42.82
2%
101.8
43.68
2%
100.78
44.55
2%
99.774
45.44
2%
98.777
8.55
2%
109.8
8.73
2%
108.66
8.90
2%
107.58
9.08
2%
106.5
9.26
2%
105.44
9.45
2%
104.38
9.63
2%
103.34
9.83
2%
102.3
10.02
2%
101.28
10.22
2%
100.27
10.43
2%
99.265
10.64
2%
98.272
10.85
2%
97.29
11.07
2%
96.317
11.29
2%
95.354
11.51
2%
94.4
11.74
2%
93.456
11.98
2%
92.521
12.22
2%
91.596
12.46
2%
90.68
10863
43454
11140
44561
11425
45700
11537
46148
11650
46600
11764
47057
11879
47518
11996
47984
12113
48454
12232
48929
12352
49408
12473
49892
12595
50381
12719
50875
12843
51374
12969
51877
13096
52386
13225
52899
13354
53417
13485
53941
6518
3042
869
1304
869
1304
2173
16078
1738
4345
21292
1704
1802
17786
5336
12451
1704
1802
15956
6684
3119
891
1337
891
1337
2228
16488
1782
4456
21835
1704
1802
18329
5499
12830
1704
1802
16336
6855
3199
914
1371
914
1371
2285
16909
1828
4570
22393
1704
1802
18887
5666
13221
1704
1802
16727
6922
3230
923
1384
923
1384
2307
17075
1846
4615
22612
1704
1802
19107
5732
13375
1704
1802
16880
6990
3262
932
1398
932
1398
2330
17242
1864
4660
22834
1704
1802
19328
5798
13530
1704
1802
17036
7059
3294
941
1412
941
1412
2353
17411
1882
4706
23058
1704
1802
19552
5866
13686
1704
1802
17192
7128
3326
950
1426
950
1426
2376
17582
1901
4752
23284
1704
1802
19778
5933
13845
1704
1802
17350
7198
3359
960
1440
960
1440
2399
17754
1919
4798
23512
1704
1802
20006
6002
14004
1704
1802
17510
7268
3392
969
1454
969
1454
2423
17928
1938
4845
23742
1704
1802
20237
6071
14166
1704
1802
17671
7339
3425
979
1468
979
1468
2446
18104
1957
4893
23975
1704
1802
20469
6141
14329
1704
1802
17834
7411
3459
988
1482
988
1482
2470
18281
1976
4941
24210
1704
1802
20704
6211
14493
1704
1802
17999
7484
3492
998
1497
998
1497
2495
18460
1996
4989
24447
1704
1802
20942
6282
14659
1704
1802
18165
7557
3527
1008
1511
1008
1511
2519
18641
2015
5038
24687
1704
1802
21181
6354
14827
1704
1802
18333
7631
3561
1018
1526
1018
1526
2544
18824
2035
5088
24929
1704
1802
21423
6427
14996
1704
1802
18502
7706
3596
1027
1541
1027
1541
2569
19008
2055
5137
25173
1704
1802
21667
6500
15167
1704
1802
18673
7782
3631
1038
1556
1038
1556
2594
19195
2075
5188
25420
1704
1802
21914
6574
15340
1704
1802
18846
7858
3667
1048
1572
1048
1572
2619
19383
2095
5239
25669
1704
1802
22163
6649
15514
1704
1802
19020
7935
3703
1058
1587
1058
1587
2645
19573
2116
5290
25920
1704
1802
22415
6724
15690
1704
1802
19196
8013
3739
1068
1603
1068
1603
2671
19764
2137
5342
26175
1704
1802
22669
6801
15868
1704
1802
19374
8091
3776
1079
1618
1079
1618
2697
19958
2158
5394
26431
1704
1802
22925
6878
16048
1704
1802
19553
122
72.4
8.39
112
15
10622
42487
6373
2974
850
1275
850
1275
2124
15720
1699
4249
20818
1704
1704
87606
68333
87.4
781.84
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
81447
87.4
931.88

781.8 0.7 0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
330 377 424 471
0.8
402 460 517 575
0.9
475 543 610 678
ARPU
Adjustment 1.0
547 625 704 782
Factor
1.1
620 708 797 885
1.2
692 791 890 989
1.3
765 874 983 1093
1.1
518
632
746
860
974
1088
1202
1.2
565
689
814
938
1063
1187
1311
1.3
612
747
882
1016
1151
1286
1421

781.8 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
165
140
120
11%
162
137
117
Cost
of
12%
159
133
114
Capital 13%
155
130
111
14%
152
127
108
1.0
105
102
98
95
92
1.1
92
89
86
83
80
1.2
82
78
75
72
69
1.3
73
70
66
63
60
1.0
124
121
117
114
110
1.1
109
106
103
99
96
1.2
97
94
90
87
84
1.3
87
83
80
77
73

932
1
1
1
1
0.7
400 457 515 572
0.8
484 553 622 692
0.9
568 649 731 812
ARPU
Adjustment 1.0
652 746 839 932
Factor
1.1
736 842 947 1052
1.2
821 938 1055 1172
1.3
905 1034 1163 1292
1
629
761
893
1025
1157
1290
1422
1
686
830
974
1118
1262
1407
1551
1
743
899
1055
1211
1368
1524
1680

932
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
194
164
142
11%
190
161
139
Cost
of
12%
187
158
135
Capital 13%
184
154
132
14%
180
151
128
8.8
Kolkata
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
AGR
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
22415
2012
24046
2013
25482
2014
26588
2015
27298
2016
28028
2017
28303
2018
28580
2019
28860
2020
29143
2021
29429
2022
29717
2023
30008
2024
30302
2025
30599
2026
30899
2027
31202
2028
31508
2029
31817
2030
32128
2031
32443
19.61
21.76
11%
77.42
23.51
8%
76.646
24.92
6%
75.879
25.91
4%
75.1205
26.95
4%
74.369
27.49
2%
73.626
28.04
2%
72.889
28.60
2%
72.16
29.17
2%
71.4389
29.75
2%
70.725
30.35
2%
70.017
30.96
2%
69.317
31.58
2%
68.624
32.21
2%
67.938
32.85
2%
67.258
33.51
2%
66.586
34.18
2%
65.92
34.86
2%
65.261
35.56
2%
64.608
36.27
2%
63.962
4.40
2%
72.52
4.48
2%
71.795
4.57
2%
71.077
4.67
2%
70.3661
4.76
2%
69.662
4.85
2%
68.966
4.95
2%
68.276
5.05
2%
67.593
5.15
2%
66.9174
5.25
2%
66.248
5.36
2%
65.586
5.47
2%
64.93
5.58
2%
64.281
5.69
2%
63.638
5.80
2%
63.001
5.92
2%
62.371
6.03
2%
61.748
6.16
2%
61.13
6.28
2%
60.519
6.40
2%
59.914
4809
19237
5096
20386
5318
21271
5460
21838
5606
22423
5661
22642
5716
22864
5772
23088
5829
23314
5886
23543
5943
23774
6002
24007
6060
24242
6120
24480
6180
24719
6240
24962
6302
25206
6363
25453
6426
25703
6489
25955
2885
1347
385
577
385
577
962
7118
769
1924
9426
1337
1414
6675
2002
4672
1337
1414
7424
3058
1427
408
612
408
612
1019
7543
815
2039
9989
1337
1414
7238
2171
5067
1337
1414
7818
3191
1489
425
638
425
638
1064
7870
851
2127
10423
1337
1414
7671
2301
5370
1337
1414
8121
3276
1529
437
655
437
655
1092
8080
874
2184
10701
1337
1414
7950
2385
5565
1337
1414
8316
3363
1570
448
673
448
673
1121
8296
897
2242
10987
1337
1414
8236
2471
5765
1337
1414
8516
3396
1585
453
679
453
679
1132
8378
906
2264
11095
1337
1414
8343
2503
5840
1337
1414
8592
3430
1600
457
686
457
686
1143
8460
915
2286
11203
1337
1414
8452
2536
5917
1337
1414
8668
3463
1616
462
693
462
693
1154
8543
924
2309
11313
1337
1414
8562
2569
5993
1337
1414
8745
3497
1632
466
699
466
699
1166
8626
933
2331
11424
1337
1414
8673
2602
6071
1337
1414
8822
3531
1648
471
706
471
706
1177
8711
942
2354
11536
1337
1414
8785
2635
6149
1337
1414
8901
3566
1664
475
713
475
713
1189
8796
951
2377
11649
1337
1414
8898
2669
6229
1337
1414
8980
3601
1680
480
720
480
720
1200
8882
960
2401
11763
1337
1414
9012
2704
6308
1337
1414
9060
3636
1697
485
727
485
727
1212
8970
970
2424
11879
1337
1414
9127
2738
6389
1337
1414
9140
3672
1714
490
734
490
734
1224
9057
979
2448
11995
1337
1414
9244
2773
6471
1337
1414
9222
3708
1730
494
742
494
742
1236
9146
989
2472
12113
1337
1414
9361
2808
6553
1337
1414
9304
3744
1747
499
749
499
749
1248
9236
998
2496
12231
1337
1414
9480
2844
6636
1337
1414
9387
3781
1764
504
756
504
756
1260
9326
1008
2521
12351
1337
1414
9600
2880
6720
1337
1414
9471
3818
1782
509
764
509
764
1273
9418
1018
2545
12472
1337
1414
9721
2916
6805
1337
1414
9556
3855
1799
514
771
514
771
1285
9510
1028
2570
12594
1337
1414
9843
2953
6890
1337
1414
9641
3893
1817
519
779
519
779
1298
9603
1038
2595
12718
1337
1414
9967
2990
6977
1337
1414
9728
79
60.4
4.31
74
13.75
4483
17932
2690
1255
359
538
359
538
897
6635
717
1793
8787
1337
1337
28287
32453
25313
74.15
341.38
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
31161
74.15
420.24

341.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
118 135 152 168
0.8
158 181 203 226
ARPU
0.9
199 227 255 284
Adjustment 1.0
239 273 307 341
Factor
1.1
279 319 359 399
1.2
320 365 411 457
1.3
360 412 463 514
1.1
185
249
312
376
439
502
566
1.2
202
271
340
410
479
548
617
1.3
219
294
369
444
519
594
669

341.4 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
77
63
52
Cost
11%
74
60
49
of
12%
71
57
47
Capital 13%
68
54
44
14%
65
52
41
1.0
44
41
38
35
32
1.1
37
34
31
28
25
1.2
31
28
25
22
20
1.3
26
23
21
18
15
1.0
53
50
47
44
41
1.1
45
42
39
36
34
1.2
39
36
33
30
27
1.3
33
30
27
25
22

420
1
1
1
1
0.7
158 181 203 226
0.8
202 231 260 289
ARPU
0.9
248 283 319 354
Adjustment
1.0
294 336 378 420
Factor
1.1
341 389 438 487
1.2
387 443 498 553
1.3
434 496 558 620
1
248
318
390
462
535
609
682
1
271
347
425
504
584
664
744
1
293
376
461
546
633
719
806

420
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
91
75
63
Cost
11%
88
72
60
of
12%
85
69
57
Capital 13%
82
66
54
14%
79
63
51
8.9
Kerala
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
43864
2012
49465
2013
54559
2014
58160
2015
60916
2016
62660
2017
63274
2018
63894
2019
64520
2020
65152
2021
65791
2022
66436
2023
67087
2024
67744
2025
68408
2026
69078
2027
69755
2028
70439
2029
71129
2030
71826
2031
72530
29.68
34.43
16%
112.7
38.56
12%
111.57
41.64
8%
110.46
44.14
6%
109.353
45.91
4%
108.26
46.82
2%
107.18
47.76
2%
106.1
48.71
2%
105.04
49.69
2%
103.993
50.68
2%
102.95
51.70
2%
101.92
52.73
2%
100.9
53.79
2%
99.896
54.86
2%
98.897
55.96
2%
97.908
57.08
2%
96.929
58.22
2%
95.959
59.38
2%
95
60.57
2%
94.05
61.78
2%
93.109
3.93
2%
61.74
4.00
2%
61.123
4.08
2%
60.511
4.17
2%
59.9063
4.25
2%
59.307
4.33
2%
58.714
4.42
2%
58.127
4.51
2%
57.546
4.60
2%
56.9703
4.69
2%
56.401
4.78
2%
55.837
4.88
2%
55.278
4.98
2%
54.725
5.08
2%
54.178
5.18
2%
53.636
5.28
2%
53.1
5.39
2%
52.569
5.50
2%
52.043
5.61
2%
51.523
5.72
2%
51.008
9893
39572
10912
43647
11632
46528
12183
48733
12532
50128
12655
50619
12779
51115
12904
51616
13030
52122
13158
52633
13287
53148
13417
53669
13549
54195
13682
54726
13816
55263
13951
55804
14088
56351
14226
56903
14365
57461
14506
58024
5936
2770
791
1187
791
1187
1979
14642
1583
3957
19390
2244
2374
14773
4432
10341
2244
2374
14959
6547
3055
873
1309
873
1309
2182
16150
1746
4365
21387
2244
2374
16770
5031
11739
2244
2374
16356
6979
3257
931
1396
931
1396
2326
17215
1861
4653
22799
2244
2374
18181
5454
12727
2244
2374
17344
7310
3411
975
1462
975
1462
2437
18031
1949
4873
23879
2244
2374
19261
5778
13483
2244
2374
18101
7519
3509
1003
1504
1003
1504
2506
18547
2005
5013
24563
2244
2374
19945
5983
13961
2244
2374
18579
7593
3543
1012
1519
1012
1519
2531
18729
2025
5062
24803
2244
2374
20186
6056
14130
2244
2374
18748
7667
3578
1022
1533
1022
1533
2556
18913
2045
5112
25046
2244
2374
20429
6129
14300
2244
2374
18918
7742
3613
1032
1548
1032
1548
2581
19098
2065
5162
25292
2244
2374
20674
6202
14472
2244
2374
19090
7818
3649
1042
1564
1042
1564
2606
19285
2085
5212
25540
2244
2374
20922
6277
14645
2244
2374
19263
7895
3684
1053
1579
1053
1579
2632
19474
2105
5263
25790
2244
2374
21172
6352
14821
2244
2374
19438
7972
3720
1063
1594
1063
1594
2657
19665
2126
5315
26043
2244
2374
21425
6428
14998
2244
2374
19615
8050
3757
1073
1610
1073
1610
2683
19858
2147
5367
26298
2244
2374
21680
6504
15176
2244
2374
19794
8129
3794
1084
1626
1084
1626
2710
20052
2168
5420
26556
2244
2374
21938
6581
15357
2244
2374
19974
8209
3831
1095
1642
1095
1642
2736
20249
2189
5473
26816
2244
2374
22198
6659
15539
2244
2374
20156
8289
3868
1105
1658
1105
1658
2763
20447
2211
5526
27079
2244
2374
22461
6738
15723
2244
2374
20340
8371
3906
1116
1674
1116
1674
2790
20648
2232
5580
27344
2244
2374
22726
6818
15908
2244
2374
20526
8453
3945
1127
1691
1127
1691
2818
20850
2254
5635
27612
2244
2374
22994
6898
16096
2244
2374
20714
8536
3983
1138
1707
1138
1707
2845
21054
2276
5690
27883
2244
2374
23265
6979
16285
2244
2374
20903
8619
4022
1149
1724
1149
1724
2873
21261
2298
5746
28156
2244
2374
23538
7061
16477
2244
2374
21094
8704
4062
1160
1741
1160
1741
2901
21469
2321
5802
28432
2244
2374
23814
7144
16670
2244
2374
21288
115
61.2
3.85
63
15
8773
35091
5264
2456
702
1053
702
1053
1755
12984
1404
3509
17195
2244
2244
83188
64886
76.2
851.53
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
78161
76.2
1025.7

851.5 0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
337 385 433 481
0.8
423 483 544 604
ARPU
0.9
510 582 655 728
Adjustment 1.0
596 681 766 852
Factor
1.1
683 780 878 975
1.2
769 879 989 1099
1.3
856 978 1100 1222
1.1
529
665
801
937
1073
1209
1345
1.2
577
725
874
1022
1170
1318
1467
1.3
625
786
946
1107
1268
1428
1589

851.5 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
172
143
121
Cost
11%
168
139
116
of
12%
163
134
111
Capital 13%
158
129
107
14%
154
124
102
1.0
103
98
93
89
84
1.1
88
84
79
74
69
1.2
76
72
67
62
57
1.3
66
62
57
52
47
1.0
123
118
113
108
103
1.1
106
101
96
91
86
1.2
92
87
82
77
73
1.3
81
76
71
66
61

1026 1
1
1
1
0.7
419 479 539 598
0.8
518 592 666 740
ARPU
0.9
618 706 794 883
Adjustment
1.0
718 821 923 1026
Factor
1.1
818 935 1052 1169
1.2
919 1050 1181 1312
1.3
1019 1164 1310 1456
1
658
814
971
1128
1286
1443
1601
1
718
888
1059
1231
1403
1575
1747
1
778
962
1148
1333
1520
1706
1892

1026 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
204
170
144
Cost
11%
199
165
139
of
12%
194
160
134
Capital 13%
189
155
129
14%
184
150
124
8.10 Punjab
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
34244
2012
36756
2013
39180
2014
41770
2015
43752
2016
45831
2017
47146
2018
48499
2019
49892
2020
51326
2021
52802
2022
54321
2023
55885
2024
57495
2025
59152
2026
60857
2027
62613
2028
64420
2029
66280
2030
68194
2031
70165
28.57
31.42
10%
92.12
33.94
8%
91.199
36.65
8%
90.287
38.85
6%
89.3839
41.18
6%
88.49
42.83
4%
87.605
44.54
4%
86.729
46.32
4%
85.862
48.18
4%
85.0032
50.10
4%
84.153
52.11
4%
83.312
54.19
4%
82.479
56.36
4%
81.654
58.61
4%
80.837
60.96
4%
80.029
63.40
4%
79.229
65.93
4%
78.436
68.57
4%
77.652
71.31
4%
76.875
74.16
4%
76.107
2.60
2%
64.68
2.66
2%
64.033
2.71
2%
63.393
2.76
2%
62.7589
2.82
2%
62.131
2.87
2%
61.51
2.93
2%
60.895
2.99
2%
60.286
3.05
2%
59.6831
3.11
2%
59.086
3.17
2%
58.495
3.24
2%
57.91
3.30
2%
57.331
3.37
2%
56.758
3.44
2%
56.19
3.50
2%
55.629
3.57
2%
55.072
3.65
2%
54.522
3.72
2%
53.976
3.79
2%
53.437
7351
29405
7836
31344
8354
33416
8750
35001
9166
36664
9429
37716
9700
38799
9978
39914
10265
41061
10560
42242
10864
43457
11177
44708
11499
45996
11830
47321
12171
48686
12523
50090
12884
51536
13256
53024
13639
54555
14033
56132
4411
2058
588
882
588
882
1470
10880
1176
2941
14408
2004
2120
10284
3085
7199
2004
2120
11323
4702
2194
627
940
627
940
1567
11597
1254
3134
15358
2004
2120
11234
3370
7864
2004
2120
11988
5012
2339
668
1002
668
1002
1671
12364
1337
3342
16374
2004
2120
12249
3675
8574
2004
2120
12699
5250
2450
700
1050
700
1050
1750
12950
1400
3500
17151
2004
2120
13026
3908
9118
2004
2120
13243
5500
2567
733
1100
733
1100
1833
13566
1467
3666
17966
2004
2120
13841
4152
9689
2004
2120
13813
5657
2640
754
1131
754
1131
1886
13955
1509
3772
18481
2004
2120
14356
4307
10049
2004
2120
14174
5820
2716
776
1164
776
1164
1940
14356
1552
3880
19012
2004
2120
14887
4466
10421
2004
2120
14546
5987
2794
798
1197
798
1197
1996
14768
1597
3991
19558
2004
2120
15433
4630
10803
2004
2120
14928
6159
2874
821
1232
821
1232
2053
15193
1642
4106
20120
2004
2120
15995
4799
11197
2004
2120
15321
6336
2957
845
1267
845
1267
2112
15629
1690
4224
20698
2004
2120
16574
4972
11602
2004
2120
15726
6519
3042
869
1304
869
1304
2173
16079
1738
4346
21294
2004
2120
17169
5151
12018
2004
2120
16143
6706
3130
894
1341
894
1341
2235
16542
1788
4471
21907
2004
2120
17782
5335
12448
2004
2120
16572
6899
3220
920
1380
920
1380
2300
17018
1840
4600
22538
2004
2120
18413
5524
12889
2004
2120
17014
7098
3312
946
1420
946
1420
2366
17509
1893
4732
23187
2004
2120
19063
5719
13344
2004
2120
17469
7303
3408
974
1461
974
1461
2434
18014
1947
4869
23856
2004
2120
19731
5919
13812
2004
2120
17937
7514
3506
1002
1503
1002
1503
2505
18533
2004
5009
24544
2004
2120
20419
6126
14294
2004
2120
18418
7730
3608
1031
1546
1031
1546
2577
19068
2061
5154
25253
2004
2120
21128
6338
14789
2004
2120
18914
7954
3712
1060
1591
1060
1591
2651
19619
2121
5302
25982
2004
2120
21857
6557
15300
2004
2120
19425
8183
3819
1091
1637
1091
1637
2728
20186
2182
5456
26732
2004
2120
22607
6782
15825
2004
2120
19950
8420
3929
1123
1684
1123
1684
2807
20769
2245
5613
27505
2004
2120
23380
7014
16366
2004
2120
20491
94
63.2
2.55
66
15
6849
27395
4109
1918
548
822
548
822
1370
10136
1096
2740
13424
2004
2004
60354
47076
78.2
602
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
57228
78.2
731.82

602.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
225 257 289 321
0.8
290 332 373 415
ARPU
0.9
356 407 458 508
Adjustment 1.0
421 482 542 602
Factor
1.1
487 557 626 696
1.2
553 631 710 789
1.3
618 706 795 883
1.1
353
456
559
662
765
868
971
1.2
385
498
610
722
835
947
1060
1.3
417
539
661
783
904
1026
1148

602.0 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
116
95
79
Cost
11%
112
91
75
of
12%
108
87
70
Capital 13%
104
83
66
14%
100
78
62
1.0
66
62
58
54
49
1.1
56
51
47
43
39
1.2
47
43
39
35
31
1.3
40
36
32
27
23
1.0
80
75
71
67
63
1.1
68
63
59
55
51
1.2
58
54
50
46
42
1.3
50
46
42
38
34

732
1
1
1
1
0.7
288 329 370 411
0.8
362 413 465 517
ARPU
0.9
437 499 561 624
Adjustment
1.0
512 585 659 732
Factor
1.1
588 672 756 840
1.2
664 759 854 949
1.3
740 846 951 1057
1
452
568
686
805
924
1043
1163
1
493
620
749
878
1008
1138
1269
1
534
672
811
951
1092
1233
1374

732
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
138
113
95
Cost
11%
133
109
90
of
12%
129
104
86
Capital 13%
124
100
81
14%
120
96
77
8.11 Haryana
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
18054
2012
21083
2013
23970
2014
26403
2015
28124
2016
29442
2017
30278
2018
30574
2019
30874
2020
31177
2021
31482
2022
31791
2023
32102
2024
32417
2025
32735
2026
33055
2027
33379
2028
33706
2029
34037
2030
34370
2031
34707
19.14
23.16
21%
69.58
26.86
16%
68.884
30.09
12%
68.195
32.49
8%
67.5134
34.44
6%
66.838
35.82
4%
66.17
36.54
2%
65.508
37.27
2%
64.853
38.01
2%
64.2046
38.77
2%
63.563
39.55
2%
62.927
40.34
2%
62.298
41.15
2%
61.675
41.97
2%
61.058
42.81
2%
60.447
43.67
2%
59.843
44.54
2%
59.244
45.43
2%
58.652
46.34
2%
58.065
47.27
2%
57.485
2.80
2%
51.94
2.86
2%
51.421
2.92
2%
50.906
2.97
2%
50.3973
3.03
2%
49.893
3.09
2%
49.394
3.16
2%
48.9
3.22
2%
48.411
3.28
2%
47.9274
3.35
2%
47.448
3.42
2%
46.974
3.48
2%
46.504
3.55
2%
46.039
3.63
2%
45.578
3.70
2%
45.123
3.77
2%
44.671
3.85
2%
44.225
3.92
2%
43.782
4.00
2%
43.345
4.08
2%
42.911
4217
16866
4794
19176
5281
21122
5625
22499
5888
23554
6056
24222
6115
24460
6175
24699
6235
24941
6296
25186
6358
25433
6420
25682
6483
25933
6547
26188
6611
26444
6676
26703
6741
26965
6807
27229
6874
27496
6941
27766
2530
1181
337
506
337
506
843
6241
675
1687
8265
1682
1780
4803
1441
3362
1682
1780
6824
2876
1342
384
575
384
575
959
7095
767
1918
9396
1682
1780
5934
1780
4154
1682
1780
7616
3168
1479
422
634
422
634
1056
7815
845
2112
10350
1682
1780
6888
2066
4822
1682
1780
8284
3375
1575
450
675
450
675
1125
8325
900
2250
11025
1682
1780
7563
2269
5294
1682
1780
8756
3533
1649
471
707
471
707
1178
8715
942
2355
11541
1682
1780
8079
2424
5656
1682
1780
9118
3633
1696
484
727
484
727
1211
8962
969
2422
11869
1682
1780
8407
2522
5885
1682
1780
9347
3669
1712
489
734
489
734
1223
9050
978
2446
11985
1682
1780
8523
2557
5966
1682
1780
9428
3705
1729
494
741
494
741
1235
9139
988
2470
12103
1682
1780
8641
2592
6048
1682
1780
9510
3741
1746
499
748
499
748
1247
9228
998
2494
12221
1682
1780
8759
2628
6131
1682
1780
9593
3778
1763
504
756
504
756
1259
9319
1007
2519
12341
1682
1780
8879
2664
6215
1682
1780
9677
3815
1780
509
763
509
763
1272
9410
1017
2543
12462
1682
1780
9000
2700
6300
1682
1780
9762
3852
1798
514
770
514
770
1284
9502
1027
2568
12584
1682
1780
9122
2737
6385
1682
1780
9847
3890
1815
519
778
519
778
1297
9595
1037
2593
12707
1682
1780
9245
2774
6472
1682
1780
9934
3928
1833
524
786
524
786
1309
9689
1048
2619
12832
1682
1780
9370
2811
6559
1682
1780
10021
3967
1851
529
793
529
793
1322
9784
1058
2644
12958
1682
1780
9496
2849
6647
1682
1780
10109
4006
1869
534
801
534
801
1335
9880
1068
2670
13085
1682
1780
9623
2887
6736
1682
1780
10198
4045
1888
539
809
539
809
1348
9977
1079
2697
13213
1682
1780
9751
2925
6826
1682
1780
10288
4084
1906
545
817
545
817
1361
10075
1089
2723
13342
1682
1780
9880
2964
6916
1682
1780
10378
4124
1925
550
825
550
825
1375
10174
1100
2750
13473
1682
1780
10011
3003
7008
1682
1780
10470
4165
1944
555
833
555
833
1388
10273
1111
2777
13605
1682
1780
10143
3043
7100
1682
1780
10562
71
63.8
2.75
53
12.5
3611
14443
2166
1011
289
433
289
433
722
5344
578
1444
7077
1682
1682
27999
21839
76.3
286.23
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
27825
76.3
364.68

286.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
80 91 103 114
0.8
120 137 154 171
ARPU
0.9
160 183 206 229
Adjustment 1.0
200 229 258 286
Factor
1.1
241 275 309 344
1.2
281 321 361 401
1.3
321 367 413 458
1.1
125
189
252
315
378
441
504
1.2
137
206
275
343
412
481
550
1.3
148
223
297
372
447
521
596

286.2 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
62
49
39
Cost
11%
59
45
35
of
12%
55
42
32
Capital 13%
52
38
28
14%
48
35
25
1.0
31
27
23
20
16
1.1
24
20
17
13
10
1.2
19
15
11
8
4
1.3
14
11
7
3
0
1.0
39
35
32
29
26
1.1
31
28
25
22
19
1.2
25
22
19
17
15
1.3
21
18
15
13
11

365
1
1
1
1
0.7
126 144 162 180
0.8
167 191 215 239
ARPU
0.9
211 241 271 301
Adjustment
1.0
255 292 328 365
Factor
1.1
301 344 387 430
1.2
347 396 446 495
1.3
393 449 505 561
1
198
263
331
401
472
545
617
1
216
287
361
438
515
594
673
1
234
311
391
474
558
644
729

365
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
75
60
48
Cost
11%
71
56
44
of
12%
68
52
41
Capital 13%
64
49
37
14%
60
45
34
8.12 Uttar Pradesh (W)
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
41632
2012
47184
2013
51946
2014
55316
2015
57897
2016
59534
2017
60118
2018
60707
2019
61302
2020
61903
2021
62509
2022
63122
2023
63740
2024
64365
2025
64996
2026
65633
2027
66276
2028
66926
2029
67581
2030
68244
2031
68912
44.46
52.02
17%
69.58
58.26
12%
68.884
62.92
8%
68.195
66.70
6%
67.5134
69.37
4%
66.838
70.75
2%
66.17
72.17
2%
65.508
73.61
2%
64.853
75.08
2%
64.2046
76.59
2%
63.563
78.12
2%
62.927
79.68
2%
62.298
81.27
2%
61.675
82.90
2%
61.058
84.56
2%
60.447
86.25
2%
59.843
87.97
2%
59.244
89.73
2%
58.652
91.53
2%
58.065
93.36
2%
57.485
6.78
2%
46.06
6.92
2%
45.599
7.06
2%
45.143
7.20
2%
44.692
7.34
2%
44.245
7.49
2%
43.803
7.64
2%
43.365
7.79
2%
42.931
7.95
2%
42.5016
8.11
2%
42.077
8.27
2%
41.656
8.43
2%
41.239
8.60
2%
40.827
8.77
2%
40.419
8.95
2%
40.014
9.13
2%
39.614
9.31
2%
39.218
9.50
2%
38.826
9.69
2%
38.438
9.88
2%
38.053
9437
37747
10389
41557
11063
44253
11579
46318
11907
47627
12024
48094
12141
48566
12260
49041
12381
49522
12502
50007
12624
50497
12748
50992
12873
51492
12999
51997
13127
52506
13255
53021
13385
53540
13516
54065
13649
54595
13782
55130
5662
2642
755
1132
755
1132
1887
13966
1510
3775
18496
3399
3596
11502
3451
8051
3399
3596
15045
6234
2909
831
1247
831
1247
2078
15376
1662
4156
20363
3399
3596
13369
4011
9358
3399
3596
16352
6638
3098
885
1328
885
1328
2213
16373
1770
4425
21684
3399
3596
14690
4407
10283
3399
3596
17277
6948
3242
926
1390
926
1390
2316
17138
1853
4632
22696
3399
3596
15701
4710
10991
3399
3596
17985
7144
3334
953
1429
953
1429
2381
17622
1905
4763
23337
3399
3596
16343
4903
11440
3399
3596
18434
7214
3367
962
1443
962
1443
2405
17795
1924
4809
23566
3399
3596
16572
4972
11600
3399
3596
18595
7285
3400
971
1457
971
1457
2428
17969
1943
4857
23797
3399
3596
16803
5041
11762
3399
3596
18756
7356
3433
981
1471
981
1471
2452
18145
1962
4904
24030
3399
3596
17036
5111
11925
3399
3596
18919
7428
3467
990
1486
990
1486
2476
18323
1981
4952
24266
3399
3596
17272
5182
12090
3399
3596
19084
7501
3501
1000
1500
1000
1500
2500
18503
2000
5001
24504
3399
3596
17509
5253
12257
3399
3596
19251
7575
3535
1010
1515
1010
1515
2525
18684
2020
5050
24744
3399
3596
17750
5325
12425
3399
3596
19419
7649
3569
1020
1530
1020
1530
2550
18867
2040
5099
24986
3399
3596
17992
5398
12594
3399
3596
19589
7724
3604
1030
1545
1030
1545
2575
19052
2060
5149
25231
3399
3596
18237
5471
12766
3399
3596
19760
7800
3640
1040
1560
1040
1560
2600
19239
2080
5200
25478
3399
3596
18484
5545
12939
3399
3596
19933
7876
3675
1050
1575
1050
1575
2625
19427
2100
5251
25728
3399
3596
18734
5620
13114
3399
3596
20108
7953
3711
1060
1591
1060
1591
2651
19618
2121
5302
25980
3399
3596
18986
5696
13290
3399
3596
20284
8031
3748
1071
1606
1071
1606
2677
19810
2142
5354
26235
3399
3596
19241
5772
13468
3399
3596
20463
8110
3785
1081
1622
1081
1622
2703
20004
2163
5407
26492
3399
3596
19498
5849
13648
3399
3596
20643
8189
3822
1092
1638
1092
1638
2730
20200
2184
5459
26752
3399
3596
19757
5927
13830
3399
3596
20824
8269
3859
1103
1654
1103
1654
2756
20398
2205
5513
27014
3399
3596
20020
6006
14014
3399
3596
21008
71
61.2
6.65
47
13.75
8326
33305
4996
2331
666
999
666
999
1665
12323
1332
3331
16320
3399
3399
57920
45178
74.95
602.77
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
57401
74.95
765.86

602.8 0.7 0.8 0.9
1.0
0.7
171 195 220
244
0.8
255 291 327
364
ARPU
0.9
338 387 435
483
Adjustment 1.0
422 482 542
603
Factor
1.1
506 578 650
722
1.2
589 673 758
842
1.3
673 769 865
961
1.1
269
400
532
663
794
926
1057
1.2
293
437
580
723
867
1010
1153
1.3
318
473
628
784
939
1094
1250

602.8 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
140
112
90
Cost
11%
133
105
83
of
12%
126
97
75
Capital 13%
119
90
68
14%
112
83
61
1.0
73
65
58
51
44
1.1
59
51
44
37
29
1.2
47
40
32
25
18
1.3
37
30
22
15
8
1.0
91
83
76
69
63
1.1
75
68
61
54
48
1.2
62
55
49
43
37
1.3
51
45
39
34
29

766
1
1
1
1
0.7
266 304 342
380
0.8
352 403 453
504
ARPU
0.9
443 506 570
633
Adjustment
1.0
536 613 689
766
Factor
1.1
631 721 811
901
1.2
726 830 934
1038
1.3
822 940 1057 1175
1
418
554
696
842
991
1141
1292
1
456
604
759
919
1081
1245
1410
1
494
655
823
996
1171
1349
1527

766
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
169
136
110
Cost
11%
161
128
103
of
12%
153
120
95
Capital 13%
146
113
88
14%
138
106
81
8.13 Uttar Pradesh (E)
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
63723
2012
67779
2013
72218
2014
75617
2015
77769
2016
78532
2017
79301
2018
80078
2019
80863
2020
81655
2021
82456
2022
83264
2023
84080
2024
84904
2025
85736
2026
86576
2027
87424
2028
88281
2029
89146
2030
90020
2031
90902
61.21
66.71
9%
79.38
72.05
8%
78.586
76.38
6%
77.8
79.43
4%
77.0223
81.02
2%
76.252
82.64
2%
75.49
84.29
2%
74.735
85.98
2%
73.987
87.70
2%
73.2475
89.45
2%
72.515
91.24
2%
71.79
93.07
2%
71.072
94.93
2%
70.361
96.82
2%
69.658
98.76
2%
68.961
100.74
2%
68.271
102.75
2%
67.589
104.81
2%
66.913
106.90
2%
66.244
109.04
2%
65.581
7.82
2%
45.08
7.97
2%
44.629
8.13
2%
44.183
8.30
2%
43.7411
8.46
2%
43.304
8.63
2%
42.871
8.80
2%
42.442
8.98
2%
42.018
9.16
2%
41.5973
9.34
2%
41.181
9.53
2%
40.77
9.72
2%
40.362
9.91
2%
39.958
10.11
2%
39.559
10.32
2%
39.163
10.52
2%
38.771
10.73
2%
38.384
10.95
2%
38
11.17
2%
37.62
11.39
2%
37.244
13556
54223
14444
57774
15123
60493
15554
62215
15706
62825
15860
63441
16016
64063
16173
64690
16331
65324
16491
65965
16653
66611
16816
67264
16981
67923
17147
68589
17315
69261
17485
69940
17656
70625
17829
71317
18004
72016
18180
72722
8133
3796
1084
1627
1084
1627
2711
20063
2169
5422
26569
3969
4198
18402
5521
12882
3969
4198
21049
8666
4044
1155
1733
1155
1733
2889
21377
2311
5777
28309
3969
4198
20142
6043
14100
3969
4198
22267
9074
4235
1210
1815
1210
1815
3025
22382
2420
6049
29642
3969
4198
21475
6442
15032
3969
4198
23199
9332
4355
1244
1866
1244
1866
3111
23020
2489
6222
30486
3969
4198
22319
6696
15623
3969
4198
23790
9424
4398
1257
1885
1257
1885
3141
23245
2513
6283
30784
3969
4198
22617
6785
15832
3969
4198
23999
9516
4441
1269
1903
1269
1903
3172
23473
2538
6344
31086
3969
4198
22919
6876
16043
3969
4198
24210
9609
4484
1281
1922
1281
1922
3203
23703
2563
6406
31391
3969
4198
23224
6967
16257
3969
4198
24424
9704
4528
1294
1941
1294
1941
3235
23935
2588
6469
31698
3969
4198
23531
7059
16472
3969
4198
24639
9799
4573
1306
1960
1306
1960
3266
24170
2613
6532
32009
3969
4198
23842
7153
16689
3969
4198
24856
9895
4618
1319
1979
1319
1979
3298
24407
2639
6596
32323
3969
4198
24156
7247
16909
3969
4198
25076
9992
4663
1332
1998
1332
1998
3331
24646
2664
6661
32639
3969
4198
24472
7342
17131
3969
4198
25298
10090
4708
1345
2018
1345
2018
3363
24888
2691
6726
32959
3969
4198
24792
7438
17355
3969
4198
25522
10188
4755
1358
2038
1358
2038
3396
25132
2717
6792
33282
3969
4198
25115
7535
17581
3969
4198
25748
10288
4801
1372
2058
1372
2058
3429
25378
2744
6859
33608
3969
4198
25441
7632
17809
3969
4198
25976
10389
4848
1385
2078
1385
2078
3463
25627
2770
6926
33938
3969
4198
25771
7731
18040
3969
4198
26207
10491
4896
1399
2098
1399
2098
3497
25878
2798
6994
34270
3969
4198
26103
7831
18272
3969
4198
26439
10594
4944
1412
2119
1412
2119
3531
26131
2825
7062
34606
3969
4198
26439
7932
18507
3969
4198
26674
10698
4992
1426
2140
1426
2140
3566
26387
2853
7132
34945
3969
4198
26778
8034
18745
3969
4198
26912
10802
5041
1440
2160
1440
2160
3601
26646
2881
7202
35288
3969
4198
27121
8136
18985
3969
4198
27152
10908
5091
1454
2182
1454
2182
3636
26907
2909
7272
35634
3969
4198
27467
8240
19227
3969
4198
27394
81
62.4
7.66
46
13.75
12745
50979
7647
3569
1020
1529
1020
1529
2549
18862
2039
5098
24980
3969
3969
87909
68569
76.15
900.44
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
84972
76.15
1115.9

900.4 0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
298 341 384 426
0.8
409 467 526 584
ARPU
0.9
520 594 668 742
Adjustment 1.0
630 720 810 900
Factor
1.1
741 847 953 1059
1.2
852 973 1095 1217
1.3
962 1100 1237 1375
1.1
469
643
817
990
1164
1338
1512
1.2
511
701
891
1081
1270
1460
1650
1.3
554
760
965
1171
1376
1582
1787

900.4 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
208
169
140
Cost
11%
199
161
132
of
12%
191
153
123
Capital 13%
183
145
115
14%
175
136
107
1.0
117
108
100
92
83
1.1
98
89
81
72
64
1.2
82
73
65
57
48
1.3
69
60
52
43
35
1.0
1812
1612
1434
1276
1134
1.1
1739
1539
1360
1201
1060
1.2
1668
1466
1288
1129
988
1.3
1597
1395
1217
1059
919

1116 1
1
1
1
0.7
411 470 529 587
0.8
531 607 683 759
ARPU
0.9
655 749 842 936
Adjustment
1.0
781 893 1004 1116
Factor
1.1
908 1038 1167 1297
1.2
1036 1184 1331 1479
1.3
1164 1330 1496 1662
1
646
835
1030
1227
1427
1627
1828
1
705
911
1123
1339
1557
1775
1995
1
763
987
1217
1451
1686
1923
2161

1116 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
2030 1957 1884
Cost
11%
1835 1761 1686
of
12%
1661 1585 1509
Capital 13%
1505 1428 1351
14%
1366 1287 1210
8.14 Rajasthan
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
45851
2012
50299
2013
53517
2014
55983
2015
57551
2016
58115
2017
58685
2018
59260
2019
59841
2020
60427
2021
61019
2022
61617
2023
62221
2024
62831
2025
63447
2026
64068
2027
64696
2028
65330
2029
65971
2030
66617
2031
67270
38.36
43.35
13%
88.2
46.81
8%
87.318
49.62
6%
86.445
51.61
4%
85.5804
52.64
2%
84.725
53.69
2%
83.877
54.77
2%
83.039
55.86
2%
82.208
56.98
2%
81.3861
58.12
2%
80.572
59.28
2%
79.766
60.47
2%
78.969
61.67
2%
78.179
62.91
2%
77.397
64.17
2%
76.623
65.45
2%
75.857
66.76
2%
75.099
68.09
2%
74.348
69.46
2%
73.604
70.84
2%
72.868
7.52
2%
49
7.67
2%
48.51
7.82
2%
48.025
7.98
2%
47.5447
8.14
2%
47.069
8.30
2%
46.599
8.47
2%
46.133
8.64
2%
45.671
8.81
2%
45.2145
8.99
2%
44.762
9.17
2%
44.315
9.35
2%
43.872
9.54
2%
43.433
9.73
2%
42.999
9.92
2%
42.569
10.12
2%
42.143
10.32
2%
41.721
10.53
2%
41.304
10.74
2%
40.891
10.96
2%
40.482
10060
40239
10703
42813
11197
44787
11510
46041
11623
46492
11737
46948
11852
47408
11968
47873
12085
48342
12204
48815
12323
49294
12444
49777
12566
50265
12689
50757
12814
51255
12939
51757
13066
52264
13194
52776
13323
53294
13454
53816
6036
2817
805
1207
805
1207
2012
14888
1610
4024
19717
2601
2752
14364
4309
10055
2601
2752
15408
6422
2997
856
1284
856
1284
2141
15841
1713
4281
20978
2601
2752
15625
4688
10938
2601
2752
16291
6718
3135
896
1344
896
1344
2239
16571
1791
4479
21946
2601
2752
16592
4978
11615
2601
2752
16968
6906
3223
921
1381
921
1381
2302
17035
1842
4604
22560
2601
2752
17207
5162
12045
2601
2752
17398
6974
3254
930
1395
930
1395
2325
17202
1860
4649
22781
2601
2752
17428
5228
12200
2601
2752
17553
7042
3286
939
1408
939
1408
2347
17371
1878
4695
23004
2601
2752
17651
5295
12356
2601
2752
17709
7111
3319
948
1422
948
1422
2370
17541
1896
4741
23230
2601
2752
17877
5363
12514
2601
2752
17867
7181
3351
957
1436
957
1436
2394
17713
1915
4787
23458
2601
2752
18104
5431
12673
2601
2752
18026
7251
3384
967
1450
967
1450
2417
17886
1934
4834
23687
2601
2752
18334
5500
12834
2601
2752
18187
7322
3417
976
1464
976
1464
2441
18062
1953
4882
23920
2601
2752
18566
5570
12996
2601
2752
18350
7394
3451
986
1479
986
1479
2465
18239
1972
4929
24154
2601
2752
18801
5640
13161
2601
2752
18514
7467
3484
996
1493
996
1493
2489
18417
1991
4978
24391
2601
2752
19037
5711
13326
2601
2752
18679
7540
3519
1005
1508
1005
1508
2513
18598
2011
5026
24630
2601
2752
19276
5783
13494
2601
2752
18847
7614
3553
1015
1523
1015
1523
2538
18780
2030
5076
24871
2601
2752
19518
5855
13662
2601
2752
19016
7688
3588
1025
1538
1025
1538
2563
18964
2050
5125
25115
2601
2752
19762
5928
13833
2601
2752
19186
7764
3623
1035
1553
1035
1553
2588
19150
2070
5176
25361
2601
2752
20008
6002
14005
2601
2752
19359
7840
3658
1045
1568
1045
1568
2613
19338
2091
5226
25609
2601
2752
20256
6077
14179
2601
2752
19533
7916
3694
1056
1583
1056
1583
2639
19527
2111
5278
25860
2601
2752
20507
6152
14355
2601
2752
19708
7994
3731
1066
1599
1066
1599
2665
19719
2132
5329
26114
2601
2752
20761
6228
14532
2601
2752
19886
8072
3767
1076
1614
1076
1614
2691
19912
2153
5382
26370
2601
2752
21017
6305
14712
2601
2752
20065
90
63.8
7.37
50
15
9170
36681
5502
2568
734
1100
734
1100
1834
13572
1467
3668
17974
2601
2601
70726
55166
78.8
700.08
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
67432
78.8
855.73

700.1 0.7 0.8 0.9
1.0
0.7
253 289 325
361
0.8
332 379 426
474
ARPU
0.9
411 470 528
587
Adjustment 1.0
490 560 630
700
Factor
1.1
569 651 732
813
1.2
648 741 834
926
1.3
728 832 935
1039
1.1
397
521
646
770
894
1019
1143
1.2
433
569
704
840
976
1112
1247
1.3
469
616
763
910
1057
1204
1351

700.1 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
155
128
107
Cost
11%
150
123
102
of
12%
145
118
97
Capital 13%
140
113
91
14%
135
107
86
1.0
90
85
80
75
69
1.1
77
72
66
61
56
1.2
66
60
55
50
44
1.3
56
51
45
40
35
1.0
109
104
98
92
87
1.1
94
88
82
77
72
1.2
80
75
69
64
59
1.3
70
64
59
54
49

856
1
1
1
1
0.7
329 376 424
471
0.8
418 478 537
597
ARPU
0.9
508 581 653
726
Adjustment
1.0
599 685 770
856
Factor
1.1
690 789 888
986
1.2
782 894 1005 1117
1.3
874 998 1123 1248
1
518
657
798
941
1085
1229
1373
1
565
716
871
1027
1184
1341
1498
1
612
776
944
1112
1282
1452
1623

856
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
185
153
129
Cost
11%
179
147
123
of
12%
173
142
117
Capital 13%
168
136
112
14%
162
130
106
8.15 Madhya Pradesh
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
44569
2012
48989
2013
52177
2014
54619
2015
56167
2016
56717
2017
57273
2018
57834
2019
58401
2020
58974
2021
59552
2022
60135
2023
60724
2024
61320
2025
61920
2026
62527
2027
63140
2028
63759
2029
64384
2030
65015
2031
65652
42.88
48.46
13%
78.4
52.33
8%
77.616
55.47
6%
76.84
57.69
4%
76.0714
58.85
2%
75.311
60.02
2%
74.558
61.23
2%
73.812
62.45
2%
73.074
63.70
2%
72.3432
64.97
2%
71.62
66.27
2%
70.904
67.60
2%
70.195
68.95
2%
69.493
70.33
2%
68.798
71.74
2%
68.11
73.17
2%
67.429
74.63
2%
66.754
76.13
2%
66.087
77.65
2%
65.426
79.20
2%
64.772
6.15
2%
46.06
6.27
2%
45.599
6.40
2%
45.143
6.53
2%
44.692
6.66
2%
44.245
6.79
2%
43.803
6.93
2%
43.365
7.07
2%
42.931
7.21
2%
42.5016
7.35
2%
42.077
7.50
2%
41.656
7.65
2%
41.239
7.80
2%
40.827
7.96
2%
40.419
8.12
2%
40.014
8.28
2%
39.614
8.44
2%
39.218
8.61
2%
38.826
8.79
2%
38.438
8.96
2%
38.053
9798
39191
10435
41742
10924
43695
11233
44934
11343
45374
11455
45819
11567
46268
11680
46721
11795
47179
11910
47641
12027
48108
12145
48580
12264
49056
12384
49536
12505
50022
12628
50512
12752
51007
12877
51507
13003
52012
13130
52521
5879
2743
784
1176
784
1176
1960
14501
1568
3919
19204
2887
3054
13263
3979
9284
2887
3054
15225
6261
2922
835
1252
835
1252
2087
15444
1670
4174
20453
2887
3054
14512
4354
10159
2887
3054
16100
6554
3059
874
1311
874
1311
2185
16167
1748
4370
21411
2887
3054
15469
4641
10829
2887
3054
16770
6740
3145
899
1348
899
1348
2247
16625
1797
4493
22017
2887
3054
16076
4823
11253
2887
3054
17195
6806
3176
907
1361
907
1361
2269
16788
1815
4537
22233
2887
3054
16292
4888
11404
2887
3054
17346
6873
3207
916
1375
916
1375
2291
16953
1833
4582
22451
2887
3054
16510
4953
11557
2887
3054
17498
6940
3239
925
1388
925
1388
2313
17119
1851
4627
22671
2887
3054
16730
5019
11711
2887
3054
17652
7008
3270
934
1402
934
1402
2336
17287
1869
4672
22893
2887
3054
16952
5086
11866
2887
3054
17808
7077
3303
944
1415
944
1415
2359
17456
1887
4718
23118
2887
3054
17176
5153
12024
2887
3054
17965
7146
3335
953
1429
953
1429
2382
17627
1906
4764
23344
2887
3054
17403
5221
12182
2887
3054
18123
7216
3368
962
1443
962
1443
2405
17800
1924
4811
23573
2887
3054
17632
5290
12342
2887
3054
18283
7287
3401
972
1457
972
1457
2429
17974
1943
4858
23804
2887
3054
17863
5359
12504
2887
3054
18445
7358
3434
981
1472
981
1472
2453
18151
1962
4906
24037
2887
3054
18096
5429
12667
2887
3054
18608
7430
3468
991
1486
991
1486
2477
18328
1981
4954
24273
2887
3054
18332
5499
12832
2887
3054
18773
7503
3502
1000
1501
1000
1501
2501
18508
2001
5002
24511
2887
3054
18570
5571
12999
2887
3054
18940
7577
3536
1010
1515
1010
1515
2526
18689
2020
5051
24751
2887
3054
18810
5643
13167
2887
3054
19108
7651
3570
1020
1530
1020
1530
2550
18873
2040
5101
24993
2887
3054
19052
5716
13337
2887
3054
19278
7726
3605
1030
1545
1030
1545
2575
19058
2060
5151
25238
2887
3054
19297
5789
13508
2887
3054
19449
7802
3641
1040
1560
1040
1560
2601
19244
2080
5201
25486
2887
3054
19545
5863
13681
2887
3054
19622
7878
3677
1050
1576
1050
1576
2626
19433
2101
5252
25736
2887
3054
19794
5938
13856
2887
3054
19797
80
63
6.03
47
12.5
8914
35655
5348
2496
713
1070
713
1070
1783
13192
1426
3566
17471
2887
2887
63157
49262
75.5
652.48
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
61107
75.5
809.36

652.5 0.7 0.8 0.9
1.0
0.7
215 246 276
307
0.8
296 338 380
422
ARPU
0.9
376 430 484
537
Adjustment 1.0
457 522 587
652
Factor
1.1
537 614 691
768
1.2
618 706 795
883
1.3
699 798 898
998
1.1
338
464
591
718
844
971
1098
1.2
368
507
645
783
921
1059
1198
1.3
399
549
699
848
998
1148
1297

652.5 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
151
123
102
Cost
11%
145
117
96
of
12%
139
111
89
Capital 13%
133
105
83
14%
127
99
77
1.0
85
78
72
66
60
1.1
71
65
58
52
46
1.2
59
53
47
41
35
1.3
50
43
37
31
25
1.0
103
97
90
84
78
1.1
87
81
75
69
63
1.2
74
68
62
56
51
1.3
63
57
51
46
41

809
1
1
1
1
0.7
297 340 382
425
0.8
385 440 495
550
ARPU
0.9
475 543 611
679
Adjustment
1.0
567 647 728
809
Factor
1.1
659 753 847
941
1.2
752 859 967
1074
1.3
845 966 1087 1207
1
467
605
746
890
1036
1182
1328
1
510
660
814
971
1130
1289
1449
1
552
715
882
1052
1224
1396
1569

809
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
180
148
123
Cost
11%
173
141
116
of
12%
167
135
110
Capital 13%
160
128
104
14%
154
122
97
8.16 West Bengal
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
31576
2012
33851
2013
36052
2014
37737
2015
38805
2016
39905
2017
40296
2018
40691
2019
41090
2020
41493
2021
41899
2022
42310
2023
42725
2024
43143
2025
43566
2026
43993
2027
44424
2028
44859
2029
45299
2030
45743
2031
46191
38.60
42.46
10%
61.74
45.85
8%
61.123
48.61
6%
60.511
50.55
4%
59.9063
52.57
4%
59.307
53.62
2%
58.714
54.70
2%
58.127
55.79
2%
57.546
56.91
2%
56.9703
58.04
2%
56.401
59.20
2%
55.837
60.39
2%
55.278
61.60
2%
54.725
62.83
2%
54.178
64.09
2%
53.636
65.37
2%
53.1
66.67
2%
52.569
68.01
2%
52.043
69.37
2%
51.523
70.76
2%
51.008
4.53
2%
44.1
4.62
2%
43.659
4.71
2%
43.222
4.80
2%
42.7902
4.90
2%
42.362
5.00
2%
41.939
5.10
2%
41.519
5.20
2%
41.104
5.30
2%
40.693
5.41
2%
40.286
5.52
2%
39.883
5.63
2%
39.484
5.74
2%
39.09
5.85
2%
38.699
5.97
2%
38.312
6.09
2%
37.929
6.21
2%
37.549
6.34
2%
37.174
6.46
2%
36.802
6.59
2%
36.434
6770
27081
7210
28841
7547
30189
7761
31044
7981
31924
8059
32237
8138
32553
8218
32872
8299
33194
8380
33519
8462
33848
8545
34180
8629
34515
8713
34853
8799
35194
8885
35539
8972
35888
9060
36239
9149
36594
9238
36953
4062
1896
542
812
542
812
1354
10020
1083
2708
13270
2570
2719
7981
2394
5587
2570
2719
10875
4326
2019
577
865
577
865
1442
10671
1154
2884
14132
2570
2719
8843
2653
6190
2570
2719
11479
4528
2113
604
906
604
906
1509
11170
1208
3019
14793
2570
2719
9504
2851
6653
2570
2719
11942
4657
2173
621
931
621
931
1552
11486
1242
3104
15212
2570
2719
9923
2977
6946
2570
2719
12235
4789
2235
638
958
638
958
1596
11812
1277
3192
15643
2570
2719
10354
3106
7248
2570
2719
12537
4836
2257
645
967
645
967
1612
11928
1289
3224
15796
2570
2719
10507
3152
7355
2570
2719
12644
4883
2279
651
977
651
977
1628
12045
1302
3255
15951
2570
2719
10662
3199
7463
2570
2719
12752
4931
2301
657
986
657
986
1644
12163
1315
3287
16107
2570
2719
10818
3246
7573
2570
2719
12862
4979
2324
664
996
664
996
1660
12282
1328
3319
16265
2570
2719
10976
3293
7683
2570
2719
12972
5028
2346
670
1006
670
1006
1676
12402
1341
3352
16425
2570
2719
11136
3341
7795
2570
2719
13084
5077
2369
677
1015
677
1015
1692
12524
1354
3385
16585
2570
2719
11297
3389
7908
2570
2719
13197
5127
2393
684
1025
684
1025
1709
12646
1367
3418
16748
2570
2719
11459
3438
8021
2570
2719
13310
5177
2416
690
1035
690
1035
1726
12770
1381
3451
16912
2570
2719
11623
3487
8136
2570
2719
13425
5228
2440
697
1046
697
1046
1743
12896
1394
3485
17078
2570
2719
11789
3537
8252
2570
2719
13541
5279
2464
704
1056
704
1056
1760
13022
1408
3519
17245
2570
2719
11956
3587
8369
2570
2719
13658
5331
2488
711
1066
711
1066
1777
13150
1422
3554
17414
2570
2719
12125
3638
8488
2570
2719
13777
5383
2512
718
1077
718
1077
1794
13278
1436
3589
17585
2570
2719
12296
3689
8607
2570
2719
13896
5436
2537
725
1087
725
1087
1812
13409
1450
3624
17757
2570
2719
12468
3740
8728
2570
2719
14017
5489
2562
732
1098
732
1098
1830
13540
1464
3659
17931
2570
2719
12642
3793
8850
2570
2719
14139
5543
2587
739
1109
739
1109
1848
13673
1478
3695
18107
2570
2719
12818
3845
8973
2570
2719
14262
63
53
4.44
45
11.25
6315
25261
3789
1768
505
758
505
758
1263
9347
1010
2526
12378
2570
2570
34871
27199
64.25
423.34
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
35657
64.25
554.98

423.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
98 112 126 140
0.8
164 187 211 234
ARPU
0.9
230 263 296 329
Adjustment 1.0
296 339 381 423
Factor
1.1
363 414 466 518
1.2
429 490 551 612
1.3
495 566 636 707
1.1
154
258
362
466
570
674
778
1.2
168
281
395
508
621
735
848
1.3
182
304
427
550
673
796
919

423.3 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
109
86
68
Cost
11%
102
80
62
of
12%
96
73
56
Capital 13%
90
67
49
14%
83
61
43
1.0
55
48
42
35
29
1.1
43
37
30
24
17
1.2
34
27
21
14
8
1.3
26
19
13
6
0
1.0
69
63
57
51
46
1.1
56
50
45
40
35
1.2
46
41
35
31
26
1.3
38
33
28
24
20

555
1
1
1
1
0.7
183 210 236 262
0.8
248 283 319 354
ARPU
0.9
317 362 407 453
Adjustment
1.0
388 444 499 555
Factor
1.1
462 528 594 660
1.2
537 613 690 767
1.3
612 700 787 875
1
288
390
498
610
726
843
962
1
314
425
543
666
792
920
1050
1
340
460
588
721
858
997
1137

555
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
131
105
85
Cost
11%
125
98
78
of
12%
118
92
72
Capital 13%
111
85
66
14%
105
79
60
8.17 Himachal Pradesh
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
7117
2012
7635
2013
8134
2014
8517
2015
8760
2016
9009
2017
9097
2018
9187
2019
9277
2020
9368
2021
9459
2022
9552
2023
9646
2024
9740
2025
9836
2026
9932
2027
10029
2028
10128
2029
10227
2030
10327
2031
10428
7.18
7.90
10%
75.46
8.54
8%
74.705
9.05
6%
73.958
9.41
4%
73.2188
9.79
4%
72.487
9.98
2%
71.762
10.18
2%
71.044
10.39
2%
70.334
10.59
2%
69.6303
10.80
2%
68.934
11.02
2%
68.245
11.24
2%
67.562
11.47
2%
66.887
11.70
2%
66.218
11.93
2%
65.556
12.17
2%
64.9
12.41
2%
64.251
12.66
2%
63.608
12.91
2%
62.972
13.17
2%
62.343
0.55
2%
72.52
0.56
2%
71.795
0.57
2%
71.077
0.58
2%
70.3661
0.59
2%
69.662
0.61
2%
68.966
0.62
2%
68.276
0.63
2%
67.593
0.64
2%
66.9174
0.66
2%
66.248
0.67
2%
65.586
0.68
2%
64.93
0.70
2%
64.281
0.71
2%
63.638
0.72
2%
63.001
0.74
2%
62.371
0.75
2%
61.748
0.77
2%
61.13
0.78
2%
60.519
0.80
2%
59.914
1527
6108
1627
6508
1703
6814
1752
7008
1802
7207
1819
7278
1837
7349
1855
7421
1874
7494
1892
7568
1910
7642
1929
7717
1948
7792
1967
7869
1986
7946
2006
8024
2026
8102
2045
8182
2065
8262
2086
8343
916
428
122
183
122
183
305
2260
244
611
2993
476
503
2014
604
1410
476
503
2389
976
456
130
195
130
195
325
2408
260
651
3189
476
503
2210
663
1547
476
503
2526
1022
477
136
204
136
204
341
2521
273
681
3339
476
503
2360
708
1652
476
503
2631
1051
491
140
210
140
210
350
2593
280
701
3434
476
503
2455
736
1718
476
503
2697
1081
505
144
216
144
216
360
2667
288
721
3532
476
503
2553
766
1787
476
503
2766
1092
509
146
218
146
218
364
2693
291
728
3566
476
503
2587
776
1811
476
503
2790
1102
514
147
220
147
220
367
2719
294
735
3601
476
503
2622
787
1836
476
503
2814
1113
519
148
223
148
223
371
2746
297
742
3636
476
503
2658
797
1860
476
503
2839
1124
525
150
225
150
225
375
2773
300
749
3672
476
503
2693
808
1885
476
503
2864
1135
530
151
227
151
227
378
2800
303
757
3708
476
503
2729
819
1910
476
503
2889
1146
535
153
229
153
229
382
2827
306
764
3744
476
503
2766
830
1936
476
503
2915
1157
540
154
231
154
231
386
2855
309
772
3781
476
503
2802
841
1962
476
503
2940
1169
545
156
234
156
234
390
2883
312
779
3818
476
503
2839
852
1988
476
503
2966
1180
551
157
236
157
236
393
2911
315
787
3856
476
503
2877
863
2014
476
503
2993
1192
556
159
238
159
238
397
2940
318
795
3893
476
503
2915
874
2040
476
503
3019
1204
562
160
241
160
241
401
2969
321
802
3932
476
503
2953
886
2067
476
503
3046
1215
567
162
243
162
243
405
2998
324
810
3970
476
503
2991
897
2094
476
503
3073
1227
573
164
245
164
245
409
3027
327
818
4009
476
503
3030
909
2121
476
503
3100
1239
578
165
248
165
248
413
3057
330
826
4048
476
503
3069
921
2149
476
503
3127
1251
584
167
250
167
250
417
3087
334
834
4088
476
503
3109
933
2176
476
503
3155
77
57.6
0.54
74
10
1423
5694
854
399
114
171
114
171
285
2107
228
569
2790
476
476
9619
7503
67.6
110.99
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
9369
67.6
138.59

111.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
35 40 45 50
0.8
49 56 63 70
ARPU
0.9
63 73 82 91
Adjustment 1.0
78 89 100 111
Factor
1.1
92 105 118 131
1.2
106 121 136 152
1.3
120 137 155 172
1.1
55
77
100
122
144
167
189
1.2
60
85
109
133
158
182
206
1.3
65
92
118
144
171
197
223

111.0 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
26
21
17
Cost
11%
25
20
16
of
12%
24
19
15
Capital 13%
22
18
14
14%
21
16
13
1.0
14
13
12
11
10
1.1
12
11
9
8
7
1.2
10
9
7
6
5
1.3
8
7
6
5
3
1.0
17
16
15
14
13
1.1
15
13
12
11
10
1.2
12
11
10
9
8
1.3
10
9
8
7
6

139
1
1
1
1
0.7
50 57 64 71
0.8
65 75 84 93
ARPU
0.9
81 93 104 116
Adjustment
1.0
97 111 125 139
Factor
1.1
113 129 146 162
1.2
130 148 167 185
1.3
146 167 188 209
1
79
103
127
152
178
204
229
1
86
112
139
166
194
222
250
1
93
121
150
180
210
241
271

139
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
31
25
21
Cost
11%
30
24
20
of
12%
28
23
18
Capital 13%
27
22
17
14%
26
20
16
8.18 Bihar
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
50179
2012
53727
2013
57168
2014
59806
2015
61482
2016
63207
2017
63826
2018
64451
2019
65083
2020
65721
2021
66365
2022
67015
2023
67672
2024
68335
2025
69005
2026
69681
2027
70364
2028
71054
2029
71750
2030
72453
2031
73163
51.25
56.38
10%
72.52
60.89
8%
71.795
64.54
6%
71.077
67.12
4%
70.3661
69.81
4%
69.662
71.20
2%
68.966
72.63
2%
68.276
74.08
2%
67.593
75.56
2%
66.9174
77.07
2%
66.248
78.62
2%
65.586
80.19
2%
64.93
81.79
2%
64.281
83.43
2%
63.638
85.10
2%
63.001
86.80
2%
62.371
88.53
2%
61.748
90.30
2%
61.13
92.11
2%
60.519
93.95
2%
59.914
7.78
2%
49.98
7.93
2%
49.48
8.09
2%
48.985
8.25
2%
48.4955
8.42
2%
48.011
8.59
2%
47.53
8.76
2%
47.055
8.93
2%
46.585
9.11
2%
46.1188
9.30
2%
45.658
9.48
2%
45.201
9.67
2%
44.749
9.86
2%
44.302
10.06
2%
43.859
10.26
2%
43.42
10.47
2%
42.986
10.68
2%
42.556
10.89
2%
42.13
11.11
2%
41.709
11.33
2%
41.292
10745
42982
11434
45735
11961
47845
12296
49185
12641
50565
12765
51061
12890
51561
13017
52066
13144
52577
13273
53092
13403
53612
13534
54138
13667
54668
13801
55204
13936
55745
14073
56291
14211
56843
14350
57400
14491
57962
14633
58531
6447
3009
860
1289
860
1289
2149
15903
1719
4298
21061
3429
3628
14004
4201
9803
3429
3628
16860
6860
3201
915
1372
915
1372
2287
16922
1829
4573
22410
3429
3628
15353
4606
10747
3429
3628
17804
7177
3349
957
1435
957
1435
2392
17702
1914
4784
23444
3429
3628
16387
4916
11471
3429
3628
18528
7378
3443
984
1476
984
1476
2459
18199
1967
4919
24101
3429
3628
17044
5113
11931
3429
3628
18988
7585
3540
1011
1517
1011
1517
2528
18709
2023
5057
24777
3429
3628
17720
5316
12404
3429
3628
19461
7659
3574
1021
1532
1021
1532
2553
18892
2042
5106
25020
3429
3628
17963
5389
12574
3429
3628
19631
7734
3609
1031
1547
1031
1547
2578
19078
2062
5156
25265
3429
3628
18208
5462
12746
3429
3628
19803
7810
3645
1041
1562
1041
1562
2603
19265
2083
5207
25513
3429
3628
18456
5537
12919
3429
3628
19976
7887
3680
1052
1577
1052
1577
2629
19453
2103
5258
25763
3429
3628
18706
5612
13094
3429
3628
20151
7964
3716
1062
1593
1062
1593
2655
19644
2124
5309
26015
3429
3628
18958
5687
13271
3429
3628
20328
8042
3753
1072
1608
1072
1608
2681
19837
2144
5361
26270
3429
3628
19213
5764
13449
3429
3628
20506
8121
3790
1083
1624
1083
1624
2707
20031
2166
5414
26527
3429
3628
19470
5841
13629
3429
3628
20686
8200
3827
1093
1640
1093
1640
2733
20227
2187
5467
26787
3429
3628
19730
5919
13811
3429
3628
20868
8281
3864
1104
1656
1104
1656
2760
20425
2208
5520
27050
3429
3628
19993
5998
13995
3429
3628
21052
8362
3902
1115
1672
1115
1672
2787
20626
2230
5574
27315
3429
3628
20258
6077
14181
3429
3628
21238
8444
3940
1126
1689
1126
1689
2815
20828
2252
5629
27583
3429
3628
20526
6158
14368
3429
3628
21425
8526
3979
1137
1705
1137
1705
2842
21032
2274
5684
27853
3429
3628
20796
6239
14557
3429
3628
21614
8610
4018
1148
1722
1148
1722
2870
21238
2296
5740
28126
3429
3628
21069
6321
14748
3429
3628
21805
8694
4057
1159
1739
1159
1739
2898
21446
2318
5796
28402
3429
3628
21345
6403
14941
3429
3628
21998
8780
4097
1171
1756
1171
1756
2927
21656
2341
5853
28680
3429
3628
21623
6487
15136
3429
3628
22193
74
66.8
7.63
51
13.75
10036
40143
6022
2810
803
1204
803
1204
2007
14853
1606
4014
19670
3429
3429
66020
51496
80.55
639.3
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
64593
80.55
801.9

639.3 0.7 0.8 0.9
1.0
0.7
197 225 253
281
0.8
280 320 360
400
ARPU
0.9
364 416 468
520
Adjustment 1.0
448 511 575
639
Factor
1.1
531 607 683
759
1.2
615 703 790
878
1.3
698 798 898
998
1.1
309
440
572
703
835
966
1098
1.2
337
480
624
767
911
1054
1197
1.3
365
520
676
831
986
1142
1297

639.3 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
150
122
99
Cost
11%
144
115
93
of
12%
137
108
86
Capital 13%
130
101
79
14%
123
94
72
1.0
82
75
68
61
55
1.1
68
61
54
47
40
1.2
56
49
42
35
28
1.3
46
39
32
25
18
1.0
1812
1612
1434
1276
1134
1.1
1739
1539
1360
1201
1060
1.2
1668
1466
1288
1129
988
1.3
1597
1395
1217
1059
919

802
1
1
1
1
0.7
286 327 368
409
0.8
375 429 482
536
ARPU
0.9
467 534 601
667
Adjustment
1.0
561 642 722
802
Factor
1.1
657 750 844
938
1.2
753 860 968
1075
1.3
849 971 1092 1213
1
450
589
734
882
1032
1183
1334
1
491
643
801
962
1126
1290
1456
1
532
696
868
1042
1220
1398
1577

802
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
2030 1957 1884
Cost
11%
1835 1761 1686
of
12%
1661 1585 1509
Capital 13%
1505 1428 1351
14%
1366 1287 1210
8.19 Orissa
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
20297
2012
21804
2013
23256
2014
24365
2015
25067
2016
25789
2017
26042
2018
26297
2019
26555
2020
26815
2021
27078
2022
27343
2023
27611
2024
27882
2025
28155
2026
28431
2027
28710
2028
28991
2029
29275
2030
29562
2031
29852
23.01
25.31
10%
68.6
27.33
8%
67.914
28.97
6%
67.235
30.13
4%
66.5625
31.34
4%
65.897
31.96
2%
65.238
32.60
2%
64.586
33.25
2%
63.94
33.92
2%
63.3003
34.60
2%
62.667
35.29
2%
62.041
35.99
2%
61.42
36.71
2%
60.806
37.45
2%
60.198
38.20
2%
59.596
38.96
2%
59
39.74
2%
58.41
40.54
2%
57.826
41.35
2%
57.248
42.17
2%
56.675
1.76
2%
46.06
1.79
2%
45.599
1.83
2%
45.143
1.87
2%
44.692
1.90
2%
44.245
1.94
2%
43.803
1.98
2%
43.365
2.02
2%
42.931
2.06
2%
42.5016
2.10
2%
42.077
2.14
2%
41.656
2.19
2%
41.239
2.23
2%
40.827
2.27
2%
40.419
2.32
2%
40.014
2.37
2%
39.614
2.41
2%
39.218
2.46
2%
38.826
2.51
2%
38.438
2.56
2%
38.053
4361
17443
4651
18604
4873
19492
5013
20054
5158
20631
5208
20834
5259
21038
5311
21244
5363
21452
5416
21662
5469
21875
5522
22089
5576
22305
5631
22524
5686
22745
5742
22968
5798
23193
5855
23420
5912
23650
5970
23881
2617
1221
349
523
349
523
872
6454
698
1744
8547
1523
1611
5413
1624
3789
1523
1611
6923
2791
1302
372
558
372
558
930
6884
744
1860
9116
1523
1611
5982
1795
4187
1523
1611
7322
2924
1364
390
585
390
585
975
7212
780
1949
9551
1523
1611
6417
1925
4492
1523
1611
7626
3008
1404
401
602
401
602
1003
7420
802
2005
9826
1523
1611
6692
2008
4684
1523
1611
7819
3095
1444
413
619
413
619
1032
7634
825
2063
10109
1523
1611
6975
2093
4883
1523
1611
8017
3125
1458
417
625
417
625
1042
7708
833
2083
10208
1523
1611
7074
2122
4952
1523
1611
8086
3156
1473
421
631
421
631
1052
7784
842
2104
10308
1523
1611
7174
2152
5022
1523
1611
8156
3187
1487
425
637
425
637
1062
7860
850
2124
10410
1523
1611
7275
2183
5093
1523
1611
8227
3218
1502
429
644
429
644
1073
7937
858
2145
10512
1523
1611
7377
2213
5164
1523
1611
8298
3249
1516
433
650
433
650
1083
8015
866
2166
10615
1523
1611
7480
2244
5236
1523
1611
8370
3281
1531
437
656
437
656
1094
8094
875
2187
10719
1523
1611
7584
2275
5309
1523
1611
8443
3313
1546
442
663
442
663
1104
8173
884
2209
10824
1523
1611
7689
2307
5382
1523
1611
8517
3346
1561
446
669
446
669
1115
8253
892
2231
10930
1523
1611
7795
2339
5457
1523
1611
8591
3379
1577
450
676
450
676
1126
8334
901
2252
11037
1523
1611
7902
2371
5532
1523
1611
8666
3412
1592
455
682
455
682
1137
8416
910
2274
11145
1523
1611
8011
2403
5607
1523
1611
8742
3445
1608
459
689
459
689
1148
8498
919
2297
11254
1523
1611
8120
2436
5684
1523
1611
8818
3479
1623
464
696
464
696
1160
8581
928
2319
11364
1523
1611
8230
2469
5761
1523
1611
8895
3513
1639
468
703
468
703
1171
8665
937
2342
11476
1523
1611
8342
2502
5839
1523
1611
8973
3547
1655
473
709
473
709
1182
8750
946
2365
11588
1523
1611
8454
2536
5918
1523
1611
9052
3582
1672
478
716
478
716
1194
8836
955
2388
11702
1523
1611
8568
2570
5997
1523
1611
9132
70
59.4
1.72
47
11.25
4059
16238
2436
1137
325
487
325
487
812
6008
650
1624
7957
1523
1523
24810
19352
70.65
273.91
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
24720
70.65
349.9

273.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
75 86 97 107
0.8
114 130 147 163
ARPU
0.9
153 175 197 218
Adjustment 1.0
192 219 247 274
Factor
1.1
231 264 297 329
1.2
269 308 346 385
1.3
308 352 396 441
1.1
118
179
240
301
362
423
485
1.2
129
195
262
329
395
462
529
1.3
139
212
284
356
428
500
573

273.9 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
67
53
43
Cost
11%
63
50
40
of
12%
60
47
36
Capital 13%
57
43
33
14%
53
40
29
1.0
35
32
28
25
21
1.1
28
25
21
18
15
1.2
23
19
16
12
9
1.3
18
15
11
8
4
1.0
44
40
37
33
30
1.1
36
33
29
26
24
1.2
30
27
24
21
18
1.3
25
22
19
16
14

350
1
1
1
1
0.7
120 138 155 172
0.8
160 183 206 229
ARPU
0.9
202 231 260 288
Adjustment
1.0
245 280 315 350
Factor
1.1
289 330 371 413
1.2
333 381 428 476
1.3
378 432 486 540
1
189
252
317
385
454
523
594
1
206
274
346
420
495
571
648
1
224
297
375
455
536
619
702

350
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
80
65
53
Cost
11%
77
61
49
of
12%
73
58
46
Capital 13%
69
54
42
14%
66
51
39
8.20 Assam
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
18823
2012
20214
2013
21555
2014
22580
2015
23229
2016
23896
2017
24130
2018
24367
2019
24606
2020
24847
2021
25090
2022
25336
2023
25585
2024
25835
2025
26088
2026
26344
2027
26602
2028
26863
2029
27126
2030
27392
2031
27661
13.16
14.47
10%
110.7
15.63
8%
109.63
16.57
6%
108.54
17.23
4%
107.451
17.92
4%
106.38
18.28
2%
105.31
18.64
2%
104.26
19.02
2%
103.22
19.40
2%
102.185
19.79
2%
101.16
20.18
2%
100.15
20.58
2%
99.15
21.00
2%
98.158
21.42
2%
97.177
21.84
2%
96.205
22.28
2%
95.243
22.73
2%
94.29
23.18
2%
93.348
23.65
2%
92.414
24.12
2%
91.49
0.24
2%
343
0.24
2%
339.57
0.25
2%
336.17
0.25
2%
332.813
0.26
2%
329.48
0.26
2%
326.19
0.27
2%
322.93
0.27
2%
319.7
0.28
2%
316.501
0.29
2%
313.34
0.29
2%
310.2
0.30
2%
307.1
0.30
2%
304.03
0.31
2%
300.99
0.31
2%
297.98
0.32
2%
295
0.33
2%
292.05
0.33
2%
289.13
0.34
2%
286.24
0.35
2%
283.38
4043
16171
4311
17244
4516
18064
4646
18583
4779
19117
4826
19304
4873
19494
4921
19685
4969
19878
5018
20072
5067
20269
5117
20468
5167
20668
5218
20871
5269
21075
5320
21282
5373
21490
5425
21701
5478
21914
5532
22128
2426
1132
323
485
323
485
809
5983
647
1617
7924
864
914
6146
1844
4302
864
914
6080
2587
1207
345
517
345
517
862
6380
690
1724
8449
864
914
6672
2002
4670
864
914
6448
2710
1264
361
542
361
542
903
6684
723
1806
8851
864
914
7074
2122
4952
864
914
6729
2787
1301
372
557
372
557
929
6876
743
1858
9106
864
914
7328
2198
5130
864
914
6907
2868
1338
382
574
382
574
956
7073
765
1912
9367
864
914
7590
2277
5313
864
914
7090
2896
1351
386
579
386
579
965
7143
772
1930
9459
864
914
7681
2304
5377
864
914
7155
2924
1365
390
585
390
585
975
7213
780
1949
9552
864
914
7774
2332
5442
864
914
7220
2953
1378
394
591
394
591
984
7283
787
1968
9645
864
914
7868
2360
5507
864
914
7285
2982
1391
398
596
398
596
994
7355
795
1988
9740
864
914
7962
2389
5574
864
914
7351
3011
1405
401
602
401
602
1004
7427
803
2007
9835
864
914
8058
2417
5640
864
914
7418
3040
1419
405
608
405
608
1013
7500
811
2027
9932
864
914
8154
2446
5708
864
914
7486
3070
1433
409
614
409
614
1023
7573
819
2047
10029
864
914
8251
2475
5776
864
914
7554
3100
1447
413
620
413
620
1033
7647
827
2067
10127
864
914
8350
2505
5845
864
914
7623
3131
1461
417
626
417
626
1044
7722
835
2087
10227
864
914
8449
2535
5914
864
914
7692
3161
1475
422
632
422
632
1054
7798
843
2108
10327
864
914
8549
2565
5984
864
914
7762
3192
1490
426
638
426
638
1064
7874
851
2128
10428
864
914
8650
2595
6055
864
914
7833
3224
1504
430
645
430
645
1075
7951
860
2149
10530
864
914
8753
2626
6127
864
914
7905
3255
1519
434
651
434
651
1085
8029
868
2170
10634
864
914
8856
2657
6199
864
914
7977
3287
1534
438
657
438
657
1096
8108
877
2191
10738
864
914
8960
2688
6272
864
914
8050
3319
1549
443
664
443
664
1106
8188
885
2213
10843
864
914
9065
2720
6346
864
914
8123
113
55
0.23
350
10
3765
15058
2259
1054
301
452
301
452
753
5572
602
1506
7379
864
864
32156
25082
65
385.87
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
30208
65
464.75

385.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
153 174 196 218
0.8
192 219 247 274
ARPU
0.9
231 264 297 330
Adjustment 1.0
270 309 347 386
Factor
1.1
309 353 398 442
1.2
348 398 448 498
1.3
388 443 498 554
1.1
240
301
363
424
486
548
609
1.2
262
329
396
463
530
597
664
1.3
283
356
429
502
574
647
720

385.9 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
81
67
57
Cost
11%
79
65
55
of
12%
76
63
53
Capital 13%
74
61
51
14%
72
59
48
1.0
49
47
45
42
40
1.1
42
40
38
36
34
1.2
37
34
32
30
28
1.3
32
30
28
26
23
1.0
58
56
54
51
49
1.1
51
48
46
44
41
1.2
44
42
40
37
35
1.3
39
37
34
32
30

465
1
1
1
1
0.7
190 217 244 271
0.8
235 268 302 335
ARPU
0.9
280 320 360 400
Adjustment
1.0
325 372 418 465
Factor
1.1
371 424 477 530
1.2
416 476 535 594
1.3
461 527 593 659
1
298
369
440
511
583
654
725
1
326
403
480
558
635
713
791
1
353
436
520
604
688
773
857

465
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
95
80
68
Cost
11%
93
77
65
of
12%
91
75
63
Capital 13%
88
73
61
14%
86
71
59
8.21 North East
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
11574
2012
12415
2013
13228
2014
13850
2015
14244
2016
14650
2017
14793
2018
14938
2019
15085
2020
15232
2021
15382
2022
15532
2023
15685
2024
15838
2025
15994
2026
16150
2027
16309
2028
16468
2029
16630
2030
16793
2031
16957
7.89
8.68
10%
111.7
9.37
8%
110.6
9.93
6%
109.5
10.33
4%
108.402
10.74
4%
107.32
10.96
2%
106.24
11.18
2%
105.18
11.40
2%
104.13
11.63
2%
103.089
11.86
2%
102.06
12.10
2%
101.04
12.34
2%
100.03
12.59
2%
99.027
12.84
2%
98.037
13.10
2%
97.056
13.36
2%
96.086
13.63
2%
95.125
13.90
2%
94.174
14.18
2%
93.232
14.46
2%
92.3
0.23
2%
287.1
0.23
2%
284.27
0.24
2%
281.43
0.24
2%
278.612
0.25
2%
275.83
0.25
2%
273.07
0.26
2%
270.34
0.26
2%
267.63
0.27
2%
264.957
0.27
2%
262.31
0.28
2%
259.68
0.28
2%
257.09
0.29
2%
254.52
0.29
2%
251.97
0.30
2%
249.45
0.31
2%
246.96
0.31
2%
244.49
0.32
2%
242.04
0.32
2%
239.62
0.33
2%
237.23
2483
9932
2646
10582
2770
11080
2849
11395
2930
11720
2959
11835
2988
11951
3017
12068
3046
12186
3076
12305
3106
12426
3137
12548
3168
12671
3199
12795
3230
12920
3262
13047
3294
13175
3326
13304
3359
13434
3391
13566
1490
695
199
298
199
298
497
3675
397
993
4867
519
549
3799
1140
2659
519
549
3727
1587
741
212
317
212
317
529
3915
423
1058
5185
519
549
4118
1235
2882
519
549
3950
1662
776
222
332
222
332
554
4100
443
1108
5429
519
549
4362
1309
3053
519
549
4121
1709
798
228
342
228
342
570
4216
456
1140
5584
519
549
4516
1355
3161
519
549
4229
1758
820
234
352
234
352
586
4336
469
1172
5743
519
549
4675
1403
3273
519
549
4340
1775
828
237
355
237
355
592
4379
473
1183
5799
519
549
4731
1419
3312
519
549
4379
1793
837
239
359
239
359
598
4422
478
1195
5856
519
549
4788
1436
3352
519
549
4419
1810
845
241
362
241
362
603
4465
483
1207
5913
519
549
4846
1454
3392
519
549
4459
1828
853
244
366
244
366
609
4509
487
1219
5971
519
549
4904
1471
3433
519
549
4500
1846
861
246
369
246
369
615
4553
492
1231
6030
519
549
4962
1489
3474
519
549
4541
1864
870
249
373
249
373
621
4598
497
1243
6089
519
549
5021
1506
3515
519
549
4582
1882
878
251
376
251
376
627
4643
502
1255
6148
519
549
5081
1524
3557
519
549
4624
1901
887
253
380
253
380
634
4688
507
1267
6209
519
549
5141
1542
3599
519
549
4666
1919
896
256
384
256
384
640
4734
512
1279
6269
519
549
5202
1561
3641
519
549
4709
1938
904
258
388
258
388
646
4780
517
1292
6331
519
549
5263
1579
3684
519
549
4752
1957
913
261
391
261
391
652
4827
522
1305
6393
519
549
5326
1598
3728
519
549
4795
1976
922
263
395
263
395
659
4875
527
1317
6456
519
549
5388
1616
3772
519
549
4839
1996
931
266
399
266
399
665
4922
532
1330
6519
519
549
5451
1635
3816
519
549
4883
2015
940
269
403
269
403
672
4971
537
1343
6583
519
549
5515
1655
3861
519
549
4928
2035
950
271
407
271
407
678
5019
543
1357
6647
519
549
5580
1674
3906
519
549
4973
114
53.2
0.22
293
10
2315
9259
1389
648
185
278
185
278
463
3426
370
926
4537
519
519
19906
15526
63.2
245.67
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
18678
63.2
295.54

245.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
98 112 126 140
0.8
123 140 158 175
ARPU
0.9
147 168 189 210
Adjustment 1.0
172 197 221 246
Factor
1.1
197 225 253 281
1.2
221 253 285 316
1.3
246 281 316 352
1.1
154
193
231
270
309
348
387
1.2
168
210
252
295
337
379
422
1.3
182
228
274
319
365
411
457

245.7 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
51
43
36
Cost
11%
50
41
35
of
12%
49
40
34
Capital 13%
47
39
32
14%
46
38
31
1.0
31
30
28
27
26
1.1
27
26
24
23
22
1.2
23
22
21
19
18
1.3
20
19
18
16
15
1.0
37
36
34
33
31
1.1
32
31
29
28
27
1.2
28
27
25
24
23
1.3
25
23
22
21
19

296
1
1
1
1
0.7
121 139 156 173
0.8
150 171 193 214
ARPU
0.9
178 204 229 255
Adjustment
1.0
207 236 266 296
Factor
1.1
236 269 303 336
1.2
264 302 340 377
1.3
293 335 376 418
1
191
235
280
325
370
415
460
1
208
257
306
355
404
453
502
1
226
278
331
384
437
491
544

296
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
60
51
43
Cost
11%
59
49
42
of
12%
58
48
40
Capital 13%
56
46
39
14%
55
45
37
8.22 Jammu & Kashmir
Gross Revenues (mn)

GSM
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
CDMA
Y-o-Y growth rate
ARPU
Net Revenue
Expenses
IT Expenses
Service Expenses
Marketing Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Expense
Depreciation
EBT
Tax @ 30%
Net Income
Interest
Depreciation
FCFF
NPV
Price per Mhz (mn)
2011
11429
2012
12269
2013
13078
2014
13698
2015
14091
2016
14494
2017
14636
2018
14780
2019
14925
2020
15071
2021
15218
2022
15368
2023
15518
2024
15670
2025
15824
2026
15979
2027
16136
2028
16294
2029
16453
2030
16615
2031
16777
5.61
6.17
10%
156.8
6.66
8%
155.23
7.06
6%
153.68
7.35
4%
152.143
7.64
4%
150.62
7.79
2%
149.12
7.95
2%
147.62
8.11
2%
146.15
8.27
2%
144.686
8.44
2%
143.24
8.61
2%
141.81
8.78
2%
140.39
8.95
2%
138.99
9.13
2%
137.6
9.31
2%
136.22
9.50
2%
134.86
9.69
2%
133.51
9.88
2%
132.17
10.08
2%
130.85
10.28
2%
129.54
0.20
2%
270.5
0.21
2%
267.78
0.21
2%
265.1
0.21
2%
262.446
0.22
2%
259.82
0.22
2%
257.22
0.23
2%
254.65
0.23
2%
252.11
0.24
2%
249.584
0.24
2%
247.09
0.25
2%
244.62
0.25
2%
242.17
0.26
2%
239.75
0.26
2%
237.35
0.27
2%
234.98
0.27
2%
232.63
0.28
2%
230.3
0.28
2%
228
0.29
2%
225.72
0.29
2%
223.46
2454
9815
2616
10463
2740
10959
2818
11272
2899
11595
2927
11709
2956
11824
2985
11940
3014
12057
3044
12175
3074
12294
3104
12415
3134
12536
3165
12659
3196
12783
3227
12908
3259
13035
3291
13163
3323
13292
3355
13422
1472
687
196
294
196
294
491
3631
393
981
4809
369
391
4049
1215
2835
369
391
3594
1569
732
209
314
209
314
523
3871
419
1046
5127
369
391
4367
1310
3057
369
391
3817
1644
767
219
329
219
329
548
4055
438
1096
5370
369
391
4610
1383
3227
369
391
3987
1691
789
225
338
225
338
564
4171
451
1127
5523
369
391
4764
1429
3334
369
391
4094
1739
812
232
348
232
348
580
4290
464
1160
5682
369
391
4922
1477
3445
369
391
4205
1756
820
234
351
234
351
585
4332
468
1171
5737
369
391
4977
1493
3484
369
391
4244
1774
828
236
355
236
355
591
4375
473
1182
5794
369
391
5034
1510
3524
369
391
4284
1791
836
239
358
239
358
597
4418
478
1194
5850
369
391
5090
1527
3563
369
391
4323
1808
844
241
362
241
362
603
4461
482
1206
5908
369
391
5148
1544
3603
369
391
4363
1826
852
243
365
243
365
609
4505
487
1217
5966
369
391
5206
1562
3644
369
391
4404
1844
861
246
369
246
369
615
4549
492
1229
6024
369
391
5264
1579
3685
369
391
4445
1862
869
248
372
248
372
621
4593
497
1241
6083
369
391
5323
1597
3726
369
391
4486
1880
878
251
376
251
376
627
4638
501
1254
6143
369
391
5383
1615
3768
369
391
4528
1899
886
253
380
253
380
633
4684
506
1266
6203
369
391
5443
1633
3810
369
391
4570
1917
895
256
383
256
383
639
4730
511
1278
6264
369
391
5504
1651
3853
369
391
4613
1936
904
258
387
258
387
645
4776
516
1291
6325
369
391
5565
1670
3896
369
391
4656
1955
912
261
391
261
391
652
4823
521
1303
6387
369
391
5627
1688
3939
369
391
4699
1974
921
263
395
263
395
658
4870
527
1316
6450
369
391
5690
1707
3983
369
391
4743
1994
930
266
399
266
399
665
4918
532
1329
6513
369
391
5753
1726
4027
369
391
4787
2013
940
268
403
268
403
671
4966
537
1342
6577
369
391
5817
1745
4072
369
391
4832
160
49.4
0.20
276
10
2286
9143
1371
640
183
274
183
274
457
3383
366
914
4480
369
369
-7814
22096
17235
59.4
290.15
Real Option Value

Price per Mhz (mn)
20465
59.4
344.53

290.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.7
125 143 161 179
0.8
151 173 194 216
ARPU
0.9
177 202 228 253
Adjustment 1.0
203 232 261 290
Factor
1.1
229 262 295 327
1.2
255 292 328 364
1.3
281 321 361 402
1.1
197
237
278
319
360
401
442
1.2
215
259
304
348
393
437
482
1.3
232
281
329
377
425
474
522

290.2 0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
58
49
42
Cost
11%
57
48
41
of
12%
56
47
40
Capital 13%
55
46
39
14%
54
45
38
1.0
37
36
35
34
33
1.1
32
31
30
29
28
1.2
28
27
26
25
24
1.3
25
24
23
22
21
1.0
43
42
41
40
39
1.1
38
37
36
35
34
1.2
34
33
32
31
30
1.3
30
29
28
27
26

345
1
1
1
1
0.7
151 172 194 215
0.8
181 207 233 258
ARPU
0.9
211 241 271 301
Adjustment
1.0
241 276 310 345
Factor
1.1
271 310 349 388
1.2
301 345 388 431
1.3
332 379 426 474
1
237
284
332
379
426
474
521
1
258
310
362
413
465
517
569
1
280
336
392
448
504
560
616

345
0.7
0.8
0.9
10%
68
57
49
Cost
11%
67
56
48
of
12%
66
55
47
Capital 13%
64
54
46
14%
63
53
45

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M PRA

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Valuation of 2G spectrum in India- A

21. May 2012

Valuation of 2G spectrum in India- A real option approach

Pankaj Sinha and Nataraj Sathiyanarayanan

http://ibef.org/industry/telecommunications.aspx, accessed on 13/3/2012

Figure 1: Trends in Telephone subscribers and Teledensity in India

Indian Mobile Service

Figure 4: Wireless Subscription: GSM vs CDMA

Near Saturation in Voice business

High Competition in the sector

1.2 Spectrum Allocation and Pricing

Supreme Courts Cancellation of 2G UAS license

The companies whose licenses were scrapped are Uninor, Sistema

DOTs recent Decisions

IDFC Indian wireless sector report dated 2/3/2012

Expanding operations in response to affirmative response from the market

Deferring a particular investment or abandoning it completely if it underperforms

(Leslie & Michaels, 1997)

associated with the project.

option. The model which is used is explained in a further section.

The above equation could be re-written as,

In context of Real Option

Present Value of cash flows expected

Opportunity Cost of not Expanding

Expected Competitive Advantage

Risk free rate of return on 10 year GOI

Risk free rate of return

Present Value of Capital Costs

Volatility of Project Value

K Present value of capital expenditure required to rollout 2G services. Considering that

Volatility of project is difficult to estimate and theoretically a Monte-Carlo analysis

Data & Assumptions

4.2 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)

Figure 7: GSM Category-A ARPU Trend

Figure 8: GSM Category-B ARPU Trend

Figure 9: GSM Category-C ARPU Trend

IDFC-Indian wireless sector report dated 2/3/12

4.4 Capital Expenditure

Investment in Passive Infrastructure Investment in passive infrastructure is not done by

Investment in Active Infrastructure Telecom companies have to install their Base

Figure 13: Capital Expenditure

4.5 Operating Expenditure

Net Interconnection Charges as % of Gross Revenues

Network Operating Expenses

Sales & Distribution Expenses

Billing, Collection and Bad Debt

Total Operating Expenses

Spectrum Usage Charge as % of AGR

Source: FICCI Report

4.6 Financing of Capital Expenditure and License Fees

Figure 15: Average Debt Equity Ratio of Telecom Operators

Debt Equity Ratio

4.7 Depreciation & Amortization

Cost of Equity (Calculated from CAPM)

Cost of Debt (Assumed to be 9.5%)

DE Weight of Equity in Capital Structure

Risk free rate of return

For calculating G two methods have been considered,

Median beta of telecom companies has been taken.

stock being equal to their weight in the combined market capitalization.

Market Capitalization (Crore)

WACC calculations are shown in the figure below.