Global and Local Peaks in Oil and Gas Production

James S Jackson
Department of Geology
Portland State University
Portland, Oregon

Oil Gravity versus Sulfur Content

4.5

Athabascan

Conventional Oil

4.0
Orinoco
3.0

Arab Heavy

2.0
2005

Arab Light

ANS

1.0

1980
Brent

WTI
0
Bitumin

Source: Simmons, EIA

10
Heavy

30
20
Intermediate

40
50
Light Super Light

Heavy
Fuel
Oil

Distillate
Gasoline

Source: API, Valero

M King Hubbert (1969)

US Oil Consumption

World Oil Consumption

Source: US Energy Resources, 1972, US GPO

Lower 48 production as of 2001

World Production as of 2001

Hypothetical Hubbert Curve of Global Oil Consumption

40

Annual Consumption
Proven Reserves

30

20

Produced Oil

Undiscovered
Oil

10

0
1900

2000

2100

Proven Reserves

Original Reserves
Remaining Reserves

Proven Reserves

Undiscovered Oil

Oil Discoveries 1930 to 2010

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1930

1950

1970

1990

2010

Undiscovered Oil

Source: USGS

Annual Consumption

EIA World Conventional Oil Production Scenarios

90

3,595 B Bbl

60

3,003 B Bbl
30

0
1900

2,248 B Bbl
1950

2000

2050

2100 2125

Decline Resource/Production = 10

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

40
40 yrs

30

20

10

0
1900

2000

2100

Global Peak Oil Forecasts

Multidisciplinary task
Precise forecast problematic
Peak oil likely within 0 to 40 years

All geology is local

Kevin Burke
Oil is our patrimony
Bolivian geologist 1990
Some post-peak oil producing countries:
United States
Indonesia
Argentina
Iran

United Kingdom
Egypt
France
Russia

Mexico
Produces 3.4 MMBOPD
Exports to US 1.6 MMBOPD
Pemex contributes 40% of state revenues
Cantarell contributes 57% of Pemex oil
Cantarell contributes 24% of state revenues

Source: Pemex

Pemex

Will the Mexican government

sustain Pemexs capital program?
When will Pemexs oil production decline?

Indonesia
Produces 1 MMBPD crude oil
Imports 0.250 MMBPD fuel
OPEC member since 1962

Source IEA, Finanznachrichten

Indonesian Oil Production and Consumption

1.5

Production

2000
1500

1.0
Consumption

1000

0.5
500
Wholesale Kerosene Price

0
1992

Source: EIA

1994 1996

1998

2000

2002

2004 2006E

Can Indonesia attract exploration and

production capital to stem declining
production?
Can Indonesia bring its fuel market in
line with global prices?
Will Indonesia compete with the US in
the Pacific market?

Western Europe Gas Production Peak

1948 Gas imports to Poland from Russia
1965 LNG imports to France and UK
1969 Gas imports to Austria from Russia
1974 Gas imports to Germany-Italy from Russia
1978 LNG imports from Algeria
1983 Transmed pipeline Algeria to Italy
1996 Gaz Maghgreb pipeline Algeria to Spain

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: UK DTI

Dutch Gas Production

120
100
80
60

Gronigen Field

40
Other Fields

20
0
1964

1974

1984

1994

2004

http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/gas/workshop_2002/doc/external_commission/10.pdf

Will Europe successfully diversify

its gas supply?
Will Europe compete with the US in
the Atlantic LNG market?

Implications for US Energy Policy

Conserve limited resources
Support research for alternative energy
sources
Recognize sovereignty of HC resources
Support global conservation and research
Do no harm to the markets

Acknowledgments:
ARCO: Denny Tower, Bob Olson, Tom Arthur,
John Grace, Chris Moore, Paul LaPointe
PSU: Ansel Johnson, Mike Cummings
WAF Oregon: Michael Carnahan

Thank You