INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Jon Morrison
1 (403) 216-3400

Adam Gill, CFA

1 (403) 216-3405

Arthur Grayfer, CFA

1 (403) 216-3409

Jeremy Kaliel
1 (403) 260-8657

Jon.Morrison@cibc.com

Adam.Gill@cibc.com

Arthur.Grayfer@cibc.com

Jeremy.Kaliel@cibc.com

Dave Popowich
1 (403) 216-3401

Serhiy Petrenko
1 (403) 221-5047

John Gibson
1 (403) 260-8668

Shahzaib Merwat
1 (403) 216-8518

Dave.Popowich@cibc.com

Serhiy.Petrenko@cibc.com

John.Gibson@cibc.com

Shahzaib.Merwat@cibc.com

Dan Forget
1 (403) 216-3021

Scott Reid, CFA

1 (403) 216-3402

Gordon Law, CA
1 (403) 260-8678

Mark Zalucky
1 (403) 260-0536

Dan.Forget@cibc.com

Scott.Reid@cibc.com

Gordon.Law@cibc.com

Mark.Zalucky@cibc.com

INDUSTRY UPDATE

Energy

January 18, 2016

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly

Equities Face Same Headwinds As Crude Prices W/W

Oil & Gas - Dividend

Corporations

NONE

Sector Weighting:

Oil & Gas - Intermediate &

Junior Producers

NONE

Sector Weighting:

Oil & Gas - International

E&P

NONE

Sector Weighting:

Oil & Gas - Large Cap

NONE

Sector Weighting:

Oilfield Services &

Equipment

NONE

Sector Weighting:

What's Changed
This will likely be a somewhat busy week for Canadian energy news flow with a
handful of companies expected to provide operational and capital spending updates.
We will also receive corporate updates from nearly 40 Canadian E&Ps, Integrated,
Oilfield Services, Utilities and Midstream companies at our 19th Annual Whistler
Investor Conference. In addition, look for the WCS and WTI front-month oil contracts
to expire and roll on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.
Equity performance for Canadian energy stocks was very soft last week, while the U.S.
energy ETF market realized another strong weekly inflow of ~US$640 million,
indicating that there is growing investor interest for exposure to the energy sector.
Overall, the International producers were the softest relative subsector with stocks
down an average of ~1,960 bps W/W, followed by DivCo E&Ps falling ~1,240 bps,
Large Cap producers off ~900 bps, Junior E&Ps decreasing ~820 bps, the Oilfield
Services sector sliding ~740 bps and Integrated names down ~210 bps.

16-140008 2016

All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.

CIBC World Markets Corp., the U.S. broker-dealer, and CIBC World Markets Inc., the Canadian broker-dealer (collectively,
CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc.) do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For required regulatory disclosures please refer to "Important Disclosures" beginning on page 26.

Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com

and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com

CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
CIBC World Markets Corp., 425 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10017 (212)-856-4000

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 1. North American Energy Equity Indices

TSX vs. S&P 500

1.50

S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Energy

TSX vs. TSX Capped Energy

1.50

TSX Composite
S&P 500

1.40

1.40

1.50

TSX Composite
TSX Capped Energy

S&P 500
S&P 500 Energy

1.40

1.30
1.30
1.20

1.30

1.20

1.10
1.20

1.00

1.10

0.90
1.10

1.00

0.80

0.90
0.70
0.80

0.60

Energy Indices - Canada

1.90
1.70

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Energy Indices - U.S.

2.20

TSX E&P TR
TSX Integrated TR
TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR
TSX Drillers TR

2.10

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

0.70

Jan-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

0.50

Jan-13

0.90

Jan-13

1.00

S&P 500 E&P

S&P 500 Integrated
S&P 500 Equipment & Services
S&P 500 Drillers

2.00
1.80
1.60

1.50

1.40

1.30

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Note: the S&P 500 Drillers index includes land and offshore drillers.

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

0.20

Mar-14

0.30

Jan-14

0.40

Nov-13

0.50

Sep-13

0.60

Jul-13

0.70

May-13

0.80

Mar-13

1.00

0.90

Jan-13

1.10

Jan-13

1.20

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 2. Commodities and ETFs Funds Flow

WTI vs Brent

Henry Hub vs AECO

$130

WTI

$120

$7.00

Brent

Henry Hub

AECO

$15+

$6.00

$110
$100

$5.00

US$/MMBtu

US$/Bbl

$90

$80
$70
$60

$4.00
$3.00

$50
$40

$2.00

$30

$140
Alberta Condensate
Alberta Propane

$120

Financial

Texas Condensate
Texas Propane

$642

Materials

$50

Technology

$80

Thematic

$60

Communications Sector

-$711
-$35
-$8

Real Estate

$40

$599

Consumer Discretionary

$20

-$341

Consumer Staples

$275

Utilities

$0

$200

Industrials

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

-$20

Mar-13

Jan-16

-$791

Energy

$100

Jan-13

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Funds Flow by Sector for US Equity ETFs for the Week Ending January 15, 2016

Natural Gas Liquids

US$/Bbl

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

$1.00

Jan-13

$20

-$69

Health Care

-1,200

$27

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200
0
US$ (Millions)

200

400

600

800

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 3. CIBC Energy Indices

TSX E&P vs. Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index

3.00

TSX E&P vs. Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

TSX E&P TR
Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index

2.70

TSX E&P TR

1.90

Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

1.70

2.40

1.50

2.10

1.30

1.80

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Mar-13

Jan-16

Nov-15

0.40

Sep-15

0.50

0.40

Jul-15

0.50

May-15

0.60

Mar-15

0.60

Jan-15

0.70

Nov-14

0.70

Sep-14

0.80

Jul-14

0.80

May-14

0.90

Mar-14

0.90

Jan-14

1.00

Nov-13

1.10

1.00

Sep-13

1.10

Jul-13

1.20

May-13

1.20

Mar-13

1.30

Jan-13

TSX E&P TR
CIBC Integrated E&Ps TR Index

1.40

1.30

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

May-14

1.50

TSX E&P TR
CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TR Index

1.40

May-13

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Integrated E&Ps

Jan-13

1.50

May-13

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps

Jan-13

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

0.30

Jan-14

0.30

Nov-13

0.50

Sep-13

0.60

Jul-13

0.70

May-13

0.90

Mar-13

0.90

Jan-13

1.20

Mar-13

1.10

1.50

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 4. CIBC Energy Indices

TSX E&P vs. International E&Ps

1.60

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

STENRE Index
OSX Index
CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage

May-13

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Nov-14

2.00
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40

TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR

TSX Drillers TR
CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Mar-13

STENRE Index vs. OSX Index vs. Oilfield Services Cos

Jul-13

TSX O&G-Equipment & Services, -Drillers vs. CIBC Oilfield Services

Jan-13

Jan-16

Nov-15

0.40

Sep-15

0.40

Jul-15

0.50

May-15

0.60

0.50

Mar-15

0.60

Jan-15

0.70

Nov-14

0.80

0.70

Sep-14

0.80

Jul-14

0.90

May-14

1.00

0.90

Mar-14

1.00

Jan-14

1.10

Nov-13

1.20

1.10

Sep-13

1.20

Jul-13

1.30

May-13

1.30

Mar-13

1.40

Jan-13

1.40

2.00
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40

TSX E&P TR
CIBC International E&Ps TR Index

1.50

Mar-13

1.50

Jul-13

TSX E&P TR
CIBC Royalty Corps TR Index

Jan-13

1.60

May-13

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Royalty Corps

North American Oil & Gas Economic Calendar

Sunday

Monday
27

Tuesday
28

Wednesday
29

Thursday
30

January 2016

Friday
31

Saturday
1

Legend
2
Earnings Release

New Year's Day

Ticker

Before Market Open

Ticker

After Market Close

9
Futures Contract Expiries

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

CL

WTI 1-Month

CO

Brent 1-Month

NG

HH 1-Month

WCS

WCS 1-Month

Canadian Crown Land Sales

AB, BC, MB, SK
Holiday/Market Closed

Land Sale:
AB

17

18

19
CIBC 19th
Annual
Whistler
Investor
Conference

WCS
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

24

20

25

26

CL

Land Sale:
BC

31

NG

21
CIBC 19th
Annual
Whistler
Investor
Conference

27

Land Sale:
AB

Canadian Holiday

CO

22

23

CIBC 19th
Annual
Whistler
Investor
Conference

28

February
Su M Tu W Th F Sa

29

30

Land Sale:
SK

US Holiday

7
14
21
28

2
9
16
23

3
10
17
24

4
11
18
25

5
12
19
26

6
13
20
27

March
Su M Tu W Th F Sa
4

7
14
21
28

Note: All times in Mountain Time (MT). Excludes equities not under CIBCs Oil & Gas coverage universe. Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

1
8
15
22
29

7
14
21
28

1
8
15
22
29

2
9
16
23
30

3
10
17
24
31

4
11
18
25

5
12
19
26

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 5. Calendar

Ticker

Price

Analyst

Rating

Returns %
Price
Target1

Target/
Price

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$17.16

Grayfer

$21.00

SP

22.4%

5.2%

27.5%

-0.8%

Husky Energy
Imperial Oil
Suncor Energy
Average

HSE
IMO
SU

$12.78
$41.68
$31.22

Grayfer
Grayfer
Grayfer

$19.00
$55.00
R

SP
SO
R

48.7%
32.0%
R
34.3%

9.0%
1.2%
R
5.1%

57.6%
33.2%
R
39.5%

-2.7%
-1.3%
-3.6%
-2.1%

CNQ
COS
ECA (US)
TOU

$24.44
$7.48
$3.69
$22.61

Grayfer
Grayfer
Grayfer
Grayfer

$36.00
R
$6.50
$30.00

SO
R
SP
SO

47.3%
R
76.2%
32.7%
52.0%

3.3%
R
1.2%
0.0%
1.5%

50.6%
R
77.4%
32.7%
53.6%

-5.6%
-2.1%
-10.4%
-3.5%
-5.4%

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
GXO
LTS
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

$15.45
$2.36
$1.13
$13.20
$6.46
$13.28
$3.37
$8.83
$6.72
$0.23
$3.25
$0.78
$0.86
$26.61
$20.00
$1.62
$4.14
$2.41
$0.08
$33.92
$6.71

Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel

$24.00
$6.50
$3.00
$21.00
$13.00
$23.00
$6.50
$11.50
$7.50
$0.30
$7.25
$1.50
$1.00
$37.00
$25.00
$3.00
$6.50
$5.50
$0.10
$56.00
$14.50

SO
SP
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
SP
SO
SU
SO
SP
SU
SO
SO
SP
SO
SP
SP
SO
SO

55%
175%
165%
59%
101%
73%
93%
30%
12%
33%
123%
92%
16%
39%
25%
85%
57%
128%
25%
65%
116%

7.8%
0.0%
10.6%
9.1%
13.0%
9.0%
10.7%
11.3%
4.2%
0.0%
14.8%
5.1%
0.0%
5.0%
6.5%
9.3%
13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
11.2%

63%
175%
176%
68%
114%
82%
104%
42%
16%
33%
138%
97%
16%
44%
31%
94%
70%
128%
25%
73%
127%

Peer Group Average

75%

7.1%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average

Royalty Group Average4

80%

6.9%

28%

8.9%

Company

Div.
Yield

Total

D/D

W/W

Short

52-Week

M/M

3-Mo

4.0%

-2.2%

-4.6%
-1.7%
-6.1%
-2.1%

-11.2%
-4.0%
-13.3%
-7.7%

-10.5%
0.1%
-24.5%
-1.1%
-9.0%

-1.8%
-12.9%
-5.8%
-6.6%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-3.2%
-2.9%
1.1%
4.7%
-9.5%
-6.0%
2.4%
-1.0%
-1.4%
-10.5%
-7.4%
-5.1%
0.0%
-4.8%
-7.8%

82%
87%
36%

Short

Mkt. Cap. Net Debt

EV
Interest Interest
($MM)
($MM) ($MM)
(MM)
Ratio

% of
Float

M/M

Y/Y

5.31

2.0%

-8.8%

47.2%

10.30
4.60
2.54
5.69

9.1%
2.2%
1.3%
3.7%

6.5%
36.7%
-0.5%
8.5%

4.7%
13.0%
54.2%
29.8%

1.55
5.13
1.48
6.83
3.75

0.9%
3.3%
1.8%
4.1%
2.5%

-42.6%
-12.7%
-9.5%
-6.6%
-17.9%

5.7%
-42.2%
-10.3%
-17.6%
-16.1%

13.65
3.90
3.18
0.42
2.46
12.85
7.62
2.84
0.84
2.33
2.67
8.99
19.04
1.00
1.74
7.71
4.77
0.55
2.44
1.09
4.01

7.02
0.70
2.05
1.58
6.21
3.20
3.82
5.72
8.98
3.06
10.07
2.65
4.23
0.91
2.01
3.28
2.32
0.50
0.54
1.59
1.25

4.2%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
4.1%
2.6%
3.7%
3.9%
3.0%
1.2%
8.6%
1.7%
4.0%
0.7%
1.0%
3.6%
3.1%
0.9%
0.7%
1.0%
1.4%

-1%
-33%
-21%
0%
8%
2%
-26%
22%
4%
63%
44%
-17%
-20%
83%
45%
-29%
80%
-24%
264%
86%
-11%

2.7%
-40.9%
-7.3%
14.1%
nm
-19.4%
-5.5%
181.6%
33.5%
-81.1%
42.4%
-39.2%
-25.2%
110.9%
266.5%
45.1%
nm
-72.9%
nm
-0.3%
59.3%

-46.7%

4.96

3.41

2.6%

25%

26%

-48.6%

5.24

3.37

2.6%

24%

1%

-28.5%

2.29

3.86

2.4%

34%

224%

YTD

1-Year 1-Year Chart

High

Low

-19.1%

-1.9%

-22.3%

$26.42

$15.75

$13,749

$1,911

$15,661

16.58

-41.8%
-6.4%
-14.6%
-20.5%

-10.7%
-7.5%
-12.6%
-8.2%

-46.5%
-6.2%
-5.9%
-20.2%

$29.48
$55.37
$40.93

$12.25
$39.30
$30.72

$13,187
$35,921
R

$6,842
$8,060
R

$20,029
$43,981
R

26.31
5.70
18.42
16.75

-16.2%
-11.9%
-26.5%
4.3%
-12.6%

-20.5%
-24.3%
-56.6%
-27.6%
-32.3%

-19.2%
-9.6%
-27.5%
1.2%
-13.8%

-23.0%
0.2%
-70.2%
-39.9%
-33.2%

$42.46
$13.87
$14.73
$43.75

$23.42
$5.61
$3.61
$20.83

$29,877
R
$4,151
$5,046

$16,480
R
$4,849
$1,484

$46,357
R
$9,000
$6,530

9.61
16.09
15.56
7.43
12.17

-3.2%
-35.5%
-21.5%
-10.9%
-17.4%
-3.8%
-14.2%
-8.2%
-7.7%
-6.3%
-12.9%
-19.6%
-13.1%
3.5%
0.4%
-16.5%
-11.0%
-20.2%
-5.9%
-2.0%
-17.4%

-6.3%
-35.3%
-34.0%
-18.3%
-22.9%
-14.8%
-25.1%
-11.4%
-4.0%
0.0%
-5.6%
-25.0%
-35.8%
10.4%
-6.3%
-12.9%
-17.8%
-28.5%
-11.1%
-7.6%
-24.5%

-24.6%
-60.3%
-69.1%
-42.6%
-41.4%
-30.8%
-54.6%
-25.9%
-10.6%
-53.1%
-34.5%
-43.4%
-41.9%
-13.7%
-24.9%
-50.1%
-40.6%
-55.2%
-74.8%
-29.2%
-47.2%

-7.5%
-47.3%
-37.9%
-22.7%
-26.3%
-17.6%
-29.1%
-18.7%
-16.8%
-13.5%
-17.9%
-23.5%
-26.5%
7.0%
-8.8%
-23.2%
-19.6%
-34.2%
-11.1%
-9.8%
-26.0%

-25.3%
-85.2%
-80.4%
-59.9%
-44.9%
-48.9%
-63.9%
-41.8%
38.3%
-77.9%
-54.9%
-76.0%
-53.4%
-13.1%
-15.3%
-32.7%
-34.9%
-67.0%
-86.8%
-26.8%
-30.3%

$25.73
$24.87
$9.26
$46.57
$16.84
$33.85
$16.09
$20.62
$9.39
$1.81
$9.75
$4.48
$3.45
$37.31
$34.67
$4.57
$11.57
$10.05
$1.04
$62.80
$15.62

$14.43
$2.23
$1.07
$12.76
$6.15
$11.31
$3.14
$8.50
$4.06
$0.19
$3.05
$0.69
$0.60
$21.55
$18.19
$1.56
$3.88
$2.27
$0.07
$31.73
$6.50

$5,318
$496
$246
$437
$421
$6,701
$696
$875
$204
$45
$360
$424
$432
$4,230
$4,592
$358
$665
$304
$28
$3,759
$2,005

$996
$1,925
$1,305
$365
$71
$4,158
$1,085
$149
$42
$1,594
$366
$1,980
$1,546
$1,039
-$234
$146
$286
$574
$308
$1,400
$842

$6,314
$2,421
$1,552
$802
$492
$10,860
$1,781
$1,024
$245
$1,638
$726
$2,404
$1,977
$5,269
$4,358
$504
$951
$878
$337
$5,159
$2,848

-4.3%

-11.6%

-16.0%

-41.4%

-20.5%

-4.5%

-12.4%

-16.8%

-43.0%

-21.2%

-2.1%

-3.9%

-8.9%

-25.4%

-13.7%

Integrated

Large Cap
Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Oil Sands
Encana
Tourmaline Oil
Average

Dividend-Paying
ARC Resources
Baytex Energy
Bonavista Energy
Bonterra Energy
Cardinal Energy
Crescent Point Energy
Enerplus
Freehold Royalties
Granite Oil
Lightstream Resources
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth Energy
Penn West Petroleum
Peyto Exploration
PrairieSky Royalty
Surge Energy
TORC Oil & Gas
Trilogy Energy
Twin Butte Energy
Vermilion Energy
Whitecap Resources

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.
Commodity Price Assumptions (Strip Pricing)
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017E
BRENT (US$/bbl)
$98.84
$52.30
$32.10
$38.00
WTI (US$/bbl)
$93.03
$48.80
$33.40
$38.40
Ed. Par (C$/bbl)
$94.62
$57.58
$42.76
$49.36
WCS Heavy (C$/bbl)
$82.32
$44.56
$28.41
$34.02
NYMEX (US$/mcf)
$4.35
$2.63
$2.34
$2.70
Natural Gas (C$/mcf)
$4.47
$2.74
$2.47
$2.92
F/X (US$/C$)
$0.91
$0.78
$0.69
$0.69

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

2018E
$42.30
$41.50
$51.07
$38.92
$2.84
$3.12
$0.69

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 6. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps

52-Week 52-Week

Ticker

Price

Analyst

Rating

Returns %
Price
Target1

Target/
Price

Advantage Oil & Gas

AAV

$6.86

Popowich

$9.50

SO

38%

--

38%

1.0%

Bellatrix Exploration
Birchcliff Energy
Cequence Energy
Crew Energy
Journey Energy
Kelt Exploration
Long Run Exploration
NuVista Energy
Painted Pony Petroleum
Paramount Resources
Perpetual Energy
Pine Cliff Energy
Raging River Exploration
RMP Energy
Seven Generations Energy
Spartan Energy
Storm Resources
Tamarack Valley

BXE
BIR
CQE
CR
JOY
KEL
LRE
NVA
PPY
POU
PMT
PNE
RRX
RMP
VII
SPE
SRX
TVE

$1.30
$3.26
$0.26
$3.36
$1.15
$3.39
$0.31
$2.94
$3.13
$4.14
$0.04
$0.85
$7.75
$1.26
$13.39
$2.11
$3.37
$2.27

Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Gill
Popowich
Gill
Gill
Gill
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich

$2.25
$6.00
$0.50
$5.25
$2.00
$5.50
$0.52
$7.00
$5.00
$15.00
$0.25
$1.10
$9.00
$2.00
$17.50
$3.00
$4.00
$3.25

SP
SO
SU
SO
SP
SP
SP
SO
SP
SP
SP
SP
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
SP

73%
84%
96%
56%
74%
62%
70%
138%
60%
262%
614%
29%
16%
59%
31%
42%
19%
43%
98%

-------------------

73%
84%
96%
56%
74%
62%
70%
138%
60%
262%
614%
29%
16%
59%
31%
42%
19%
43%
98%

-11.0%
2.8%
-3.8%
-4.5%
na
-2.6%
-4.7%
-5.5%
-4.6%
-5.3%
0.0%
-4.5%
-2.0%
-3.8%
-2.3%
-2.8%
-4.5%
-7.7%
-3.6%

BNK
CNE
GTE
OXC
PRE
PXT
TGL

$0.76
$2.23
$2.88
$0.50
$0.48
$8.40
$1.83

Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich
Popowich

$2.00
$5.00
$4.00
$2.50
$1.00
$13.50
$1.50

SP
SO
SP
SO-S
SU
SO
SU

163%
124%
39%
400%
108%
61%
-18%
125%

------7%
7%

163%
124%
39%
400%
108%
61%
-11%
126%

-6.2%
-2.6%
-0.3%
-16.7%
-39.2%
-5.0%
-3.7%
-10.5%

BDI
CFW
FRC
EFX
ESI
MTL
PSI
PD
SVY
SES
TOT
TCW
TDG
WRG

$5.05
$1.23
$3.24
$11.77
$6.47
$14.10
$16.49
$4.26
$1.05
$6.00
$12.80
$0.45
$1.61
$2.94

Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison
Morrison

$7.25
$3.00
$7.00
$18.00
$8.50
$15.00
$16.25
$8.00
$2.50
$10.00
$17.00
$1.50
$3.25
$6.00

SP
SO
SO
SO
SP
SP
SU
SO
SO
SO
SP
SP
SO
SO

44%
144%
116%
53%
31%
6%
-1%
88%
138%
67%
33%
237%
102%
104%
83%

11.9%
5.1%
3.7%
2.9%
7.4%
6.8%
4.1%
6.6%
0.0%
4.0%
1.9%
0.0%
12.4%
1.4%
4.9%

44%
144%
116%
53%
31%
6%
-1%
88%
138%
67%
33%
237%
102%
104%
83%

1.4%
-8.2%
-0.3%
-3.8%
-1.7%
0.5%
-1.9%
-4.1%
-6.3%
-5.1%
0.9%
-4.3%
-2.4%
-5.5%
-2.9%

Company

Div.
Yield

Total

D/D

W/W

M/M

3-Mo

YTD

1.3%

5.4%

-13.7%

-2.4%

-15.0%
-9.9%
-7.3%
-13.4%
-5.6%
-2.3%
-3.2%
-14.8%
-0.9%
-20.7%
-12.5%
-5.6%
-1.4%
-8.7%
-0.4%
-9.1%
-9.9%
-15.6%
-8.2%

-4.4%
-14.0%
-7.3%
-4.8%
11.2%
-9.1%
84.8%
-17.9%
2.6%
-22.3%
-66.7%
0.0%
-5.8%
-10.0%
-0.2%
-7.9%
6.0%
-16.5%
-4.0%

-49.4%
-53.0%
-60.2%
-39.4%
-42.8%
-42.7%
-21.8%
-46.8%
-47.7%
-72.4%
-95.1%
-34.1%
-8.2%
-35.7%
-4.2%
-19.2%
-23.9%
-20.9%
-38.5%

-21.7%
-19.3%
-15.0%
-17.0%
-14.4%
-20.0%
-15.3%
-27.8%
-10.1%
-32.4%
-30.0%
-8.6%
-7.4%
-17.6%
-0.7%
-10.6%
-6.1%
-24.1%
-15.8%

-13.6%
-11.2%
1.1%
-15.3%
-67.3%
-8.9%
-21.1%
-19.5%

-20.0%
-13.9%
-11.1%
2.0%
-69.2%
-16.6%
-22.1%
-21.6%

-67.0%
-31.6%
-14.0%
-33.3%
-84.6%
-18.8%
-46.9%
-42.3%

-25.5%
-19.5%
-4.3%
-16.7%
-71.9%
-17.3%
-27.1%
-26.0%

-12.0%
-31.3%
-2.4%
-7.3%
-2.0%
3.8%
-8.7%
-8.6%
-11.8%
-7.6%
-3.3%
7.2%
-10.6%
-9.0%
-7.4%

-26.4%
-28.0%
-14.2%
-10.4%
-3.1%
2.2%
-12.2%
-18.9%
-7.9%
-24.5%
-3.5%
-24.6%
-16.6%
-13.7%
-14.4%

-40.5%
-60.7%
-37.4%
-12.3%
-25.9%
-21.8%
-16.7%
-28.2%
-21.6%
-34.7%
-20.5%
-61.3%
-35.8%
-40.9%
-32.7%

-30.4%
-46.3%
-19.7%
-11.4%
-12.3%
0.6%
-15.0%
-22.1%
-14.6%
-28.2%
-5.6%
-30.5%
-24.1%
-24.2%
-20.3%

1-Year 1-Year Chart

Short

Short

Mkt. Cap. Net Debt

EV
Interest Interest
($MM)
($MM) ($MM)
(MM)
Ratio

% of
Float

High

LOW

28.9%

$8.36

$4.94

$1,171

$298

$1,469

4.22

4.36

2.5%

17%

-7.4%

-58.1%
-53.0%
-72.6%
-36.4%
-75.7%
-46.2%
-74.4%
-53.5%
-58.0%
-83.8%
-96.3%
-41.4%
14.8%
-67.4%
-7.5%
-7.9%
2.4%
-21.7%
-42.5%

$4.05
$9.34
$1.11
$6.48
$6.25
$9.95
$1.39
$9.54
$8.83
$38.08
$1.28
$1.65
$9.94
$5.56
$21.23
$3.52
$5.08
$4.80

$1.30
$2.95
$0.25
$3.19
$1.01
$3.00
$0.12
$2.88
$2.78
$3.68
$0.03
$0.82
$6.50
$1.16
$11.25
$1.80
$2.86
$1.83

$250
$497
$54
$474
$50
$572
$97
$451
$313
$440
$8
$258
$1,646
$156
$3,369
$558
$402
$227

$723
$632
$54
$256
$108
$96
$679
$204
$65
$1,795
$303
$148
$104
$130
$995
$87
$60
$106

$973
$1,129
$107
$730
$158
$668
$776
$654
$378
$2,235
$311
$406
$1,749
$286
$4,364
$645
$463
$333

12.22
5.05
0.50
15.22
0.00
9.27
0.78
11.94
4.28
8.64
14.01
0.21
6.02
2.08
3.89
3.38
0.17
0.53
5.39

9.96
6.00
1.12
14.80
0.05
6.35
0.25
18.84
1.90
5.11
5.61
0.25
4.23
3.10
2.66
4.16
2.10
1.55
4.86

7.8%
4.9%
0.4%
11.2%
0.0%
6.7%
0.5%
8.2%
4.4%
14.8%
4.1%
0.1%
3.2%
1.7%
2.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.5%
3.9%

-10%
1%
179%
-1%
nm
21%
-48%
7%
25%
-2%
260%
-87%
22%
-1%
-20%
-5%
-19%
-23%
18%

-18.6%
56.0%
-76.8%
-31.0%
-89.1%
nm
-88.9%
1.6%
nm
34.4%
nm
-63.3%
nm
18.2%
108.0%
4.9%
3.3%
53.0%
-6%

-68.9%
-9.7%
-26.2%
-89.9%
-89.1%
32.3%
-40.6%
-41.7%

$3.83
$4.21
$4.80
$6.28
$6.38
$11.55
$5.84

$0.70
$1.96
$2.48
$0.42
$0.39
$6.10
$1.76

$199
$353
$816
$61
$150
$1,262
$132

-$75
$173
-$191
$52
$5,184
-$63
-$170

$124
$526
$625
$112
$5,335
$1,199
-$37

8.21
0.43
7.32
0.01
6.88
3.95
4.14
4.42

1.42
0.92
5.17
0.40
1.57
5.75
22.80
5.43

3.2%
0.3%
3.0%
0.0%
4.5%
2.8%
6.0%
2.8%

-10%
21%
-5%
0%
22%
-2%
11%
5%

-16.4%
-64.8%
-58.9%
-59.2%
-11.8%
nm
136.3%
-12%

-46.9%
-85.1%
-53.1%
-20.9%
-28.2%
-17.0%
-4.1%
-24.5%
-58.5%
-55.5%
3.9%
-92.0%
-63.5%
-43.6%
-42.1%

$18.26
$11.17
$9.03
$17.34
$12.50
$23.14
$23.10
$9.43
$3.01
$18.41
$17.46
$5.75
$5.53
$7.89

$4.65
$1.20
$2.85
$10.03
$6.00
$13.09
$16.18
$4.08
$0.97
$5.85
$11.67
$0.34
$1.56
$2.85

$207
$142
$224
$931
$984
$1,292
$1,381
$1,248
$95
$824
$397
$66
$358
$217

$204
$695
$67
$367
$710
$652
-$189
$1,679
$269
$208
$4
$473
$673
$200

$412
$837
$291
$1,298
$1,694
$1,944
$1,192
$2,927
$364
$1,032
$401
$539
$1,031
$417

0.98
2.80
1.39
0.55
2.00
2.41
2.11
3.38
0.41
4.07
0.64
0.22
2.76
0.53
1.73

4.34
2.98
3.20
2.39
4.99
5.01
9.17
1.44
4.39
5.79
18.20
0.13
3.46
4.21
4.98

2.8%
3.2%
2.1%
0.7%
1.6%
2.7%
3.0%
1.2%
0.5%
3.1%
2.2%
0.2%
1.3%
0.8%
1.8%

-6%
13%
-10%
130%
49%
9%
15%
1%
-11%
15%
41%
-66%
22%
31%
16%

78.1%
256.7%
-8.2%
-14.4%
-24.3%
47.0%
nm
105.7%
-78.7%
nm
132.2%
-90.1%
75.8%
186.9%
56%

M/M

Y/Y

Junior

Average

International
Bankers Petroleum
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Oryx Petroleum
Pacific Exploration & Production
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy
Average

Oilfield Services
Black Diamond Group
Calfrac Well Services
Canyon Services Group
Enerflex
Ensign Energy Services
Mullen Group
Pason Systems
Precision Drilling
Savanna Energy Services
Secure Energy Services
Total Energy Services
Trican Well Service
Trinidad Drilling
Western Energy Services
Average
Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 7. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos

P/CF
Company

Ticker

P/E

D/CF

EV/DACF

EV/P+P

EV/Boe/d

Price

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Reserves

P/Core

NAV %
P/Risked

P/Unrisked

Integrated
Cenovus Energy

CVE

$17.16

8.1x

15.3x

14.7x

nm

nm

nm

1.3x

4.0x

5.2x

7.9x

14.8x

15.5x

$56,218

$63,368

$61,409

$3.99

171%

138%

110%

Husky Energy
Imperial Oil
Suncor Energy

HSE
IMO
SU

$12.78
$41.68
$31.22

4.0x
12.1x
R

8.0x
17.6x
R

6.3x
12.9x
R

nm
nm
R

nm
nm
R

nm
nm
R

2.3x
2.7x
R

5.4x
3.8x
R

4.6x
2.8x
R

5.8x
14.7x
R

12.2x
21.1x
R

10.1x
15.6x
R

$59,935
$121,415
R

$67,083
$103,878
R

$70,730
$98,477
R

$6.74
$10.86
R

-443%
353%
R

365%
206%
R

178%
149%
R

8.1x

13.6x

11.3x

nm

nm

nm

2.1x

4.4x

4.2x

9.5x

16.0x

13.7x

$79,189

$78,110

$76,872

$7.20

2.6x

236%

146%

5.3x
R
2.9x
5.8x

9.7x
R
6.0x
7.0x

6.1x
R
6.4x
6.0x

nm
R
nm
nm

nm
R
nm
nm

nm
R
nm
nm

3.0x
R
3.5x
1.8x

6.2x
R
9.7x
2.4x

4.0x
R
12.6x
2.6x

7.9x
R
4.0x
7.4x

13.9x
R
9.0x
8.8x

9.5x
R
10.7x
8.0x

$54,298
R
$21,961
$41,867

$58,523
R
$30,038
$34,296

$55,464
R
$35,982
$35,918

$5.65
R
$12.30
$7.63

159%
R
-568%
179%

141%
R
319%
98%

98%
R
117%
74%

4.7x

7.6x

6.2x

nm

nm

nm

2.8x

6.1x

6.4x

6.4x

10.6x

9.4x

$39,376

$40,952

$42,455

$8.53

169%

186%

96%

7.1x
0.9x
0.6x
3.7x
3.9x
3.3x
1.4x
12.8x
nm
0.2x
2.1x
0.9x
1.8x
7.6x
16.8x
2.8x
4.9x
2.8x
0.2x
7.4x
3.9x

9.1x
1.9x
0.9x
6.9x
8.9x
5.4x
3.3x
12.9x
8.8x
nm
3.0x
1.2x
15.7x
7.8x
28.1x
11.3x
8.0x
3.5x
1.1x
11.6x
8.7x

8.5x
2.2x
0.9x
4.5x
7.6x
6.2x
2.9x
16.2x
6.2x
nm
6.9x
4.1x
9.7x
6.0x
25.1x
8.0x
5.9x
3.5x
0.9x
10.4x
9.7x

----------------------

----------------------

----------------------

1.2x
3.4x
2.9x
2.9x
1.4x
2.1x
2.4x
1.5x
0.6x
8.0x
2.3x
3.8x
7.8x
1.8x
nm
1.2x
2.1x
5.0x
1.5x
2.8x
1.7x

1.9x
6.8x
3.9x
5.7x
2.9x
3.5x
5.8x
2.4x
2.2x
nm
2.9x
4.6x
78.9x
2.4x
nm
6.5x
4.0x
6.3x
12.9x
4.5x
4.2x

1.9x
8.5x
3.7x
3.7x
3.4x
4.7x
6.1x
3.7x
1.5x
nm
7.5x
16.3x
56.7x
2.1x
nm
5.6x
3.5x
6.4x
12.3x
4.3x
5.7x

7.8x
3.6x
3.1x
5.9x
5.5x
5.0x
3.4x
14.6x
nm
5.0x
3.7x
3.9x
5.9x
8.9x
23.5x
3.6x
6.5x
5.9x
1.6x
9.1x
5.2x

10.1x
6.3x
4.2x
10.2x
10.3x
7.6x
7.2x
14.0x
9.9x
12.5x
4.9x
4.5x
18.1x
9.4x
27.6x
14.2x
10.3x
7.2x
9.0x
13.2x
10.9x

9.6x
7.4x
4.1x
7.1x
9.7x
8.8x
7.2x
17.6x
7.1x
13.4x
9.8x
10.3x
15.8x
7.5x
25.1x
11.1x
8.1x
7.3x
8.7x
12.1x
12.5x

$50,509
$31,856
$19,891
$61,726
$43,963
$63,506
$17,210
$95,866
nm
$69,718
$36,298
$37,560
$27,274
$44,091
$168,870
$35,997
$60,802
$34,418
$20,592
$77,005
$69,286

$50,917
$27,203
$18,253
$58,148
$42,083
$60,668
$17,210
$110,275
$65,930
$60,681
$32,265
$32,930
$21,910
$51,154
$200,715
$35,364
$55,414
$31,914
$19,805
$79,375
$64,718

$50,509
$31,856
$19,891
$61,726
$43,963
$63,506
$17,210
$129,093
$36,986
$69,718
$36,298
$37,560
$27,274
$44,091
$210,573
$35,997
$61,416
$34,418
$20,592
$77,005
$69,286

$9.56
$5.61
$3.64
$8.60
$8.05
$11.71
$4.58
nm
$14.48
$10.19
$4.58
$4.54
$3.69
$9.91
nm
$5.66
$10.98
$6.41
$5.50
$20.90
$11.41

nm
nm
nm
nm
151%
nm
nm
nm
705%
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
120%
633%
170%
nm
nm
177%
687%

141%
63%
21%
92%
130%
97%
109%
nm
nm
nm
141%
nm
nm
91%
261%
142%
116%
35%
nm
98%
68%

52%
19%
7%
39%
103%
40%
34%
nm
105%
nm
54%
nm
nm
42%
261%
52%
63%
9%
165%
37%
31%

$8.42

378%

107%

66%

Average

Large Cap
Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Oil Sands
Encana
Tourmaline Oil

CNQ
COS
ECA (US)
TOU

$24.44
$7.48
$3.69
$22.61

Average

Dividend-Paying
ARC Resources
Baytex Energy
Bonavista Energy
Bonterra Energy
Cardinal Energy
Crescent Point Energy
Enerplus
Freehold Royalties
Granite Oil
Lightstream Resources
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth Energy
Penn West Petroleum
Peyto Exploration
PrairieSky Royalty
Surge Energy
TORC Oil & Gas
Trilogy Energy
Twin Butte Energy
Vermilion Energy
Whitecap Resources

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
GXO
LTS
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

$15.45
$2.36
$1.13
$13.20
$6.46
$13.28
$3.37
$8.83
$6.72
$0.23
$3.25
$0.78
$0.86
$26.61
$20.00
$1.62
$4.14
$2.41
$0.08
$33.92
$6.71

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average

Royalty Group Average4
Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

4.2x

7.9x

7.3x

2.8x

8.5x

8.3x

6.6x

10.6x

10.5x

$53,322

$54,140

$56,141

14.8x

20.5x

20.7x

1.5x

2.4x

3.7x

19.0x

20.8x

21.3x

$132,368

$155,495

$169,833

nm

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 8. Comparables (Strip Pricing) Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps

P/CF

P/E

D/CF

EV/DACF

EV/P+P

Ticker

Price

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Reserves

P/Core

NAV %
P/Risked

P/Unrisked

Advantage Oil & Gas

AAV

$6.86

9.6x

7.5x

6.3x

--

--

--

2.4x

1.7x

1.7x

11.1x

8.6x

7.6x

$62,361

$44,051

$38,516

$4.89

107%

82%

47%

Bellatrix Exploration
Birchcliff Energy
Cequence Energy
Crew Energy
Journey Energy
Kelt Exploration
Long Run Exploration
NuVista Energy
Painted Pony Petroleum
Paramount Resources
Perpetual Energy
Pine Cliff Energy
Raging River Exploration
RMP Energy
Seven Generations Energy
Spartan Energy
Storm Resources
Tamarack Valley

BXE
BIR
CQE
CR
JOY
KEL
LRE
NVA
PPY
POU
PMT
PNE
RRX
RMP
VII
SPE
SRX
TVE

$1.30
$3.26
$0.26
$3.36
$1.15
$3.39
$0.31
$2.94
$3.13
$4.14
$0.04
$0.85
$7.75
$1.26
$13.39
$2.11
$3.37
$2.27

2.3x
3.0x
2.1x
6.6x
1.0x
8.9x
0.4x
3.5x
9.6x
4.6x
nm
8.3x
8.8x
1.6x
9.0x
8.5x
10.3x
3.4x

2.6x
3.7x
5.5x
7.5x
2.4x
14.0x
2.5x
4.0x
6.9x
8.2x
nm
13.1x
12.0x
3.0x
6.7x
13.9x
20.9x
5.4x

2.4x
2.5x
3.0x
7.5x
2.0x
7.4x
2.3x
4.1x
3.0x
2.8x
nm
5.7x
9.4x
2.2x
5.6x
8.4x
13.8x
4.9x

-------------------

-------------------

-------------------

6.7x
3.9x
2.7x
3.4x
2.0x
3.1x
3.4x
1.8x
2.3x
19.3x
44.2x
5.9x
0.7x
1.3x
3.1x
1.2x
1.6x
1.8x

7.8x
5.4x
11.3x
4.0x
5.3x
6.6x
15.2x
2.4x
5.4x
39.1x
nm
7.0x
1.3x
2.6x
3.0x
2.7x
5.6x
3.3x

7.6x
4.4x
11.4x
4.6x
5.0x
5.0x
15.8x
3.7x
4.6x
15.5x
nm
2.5x
1.2x
2.5x
3.8x
2.8x
6.3x
4.3x

6.7x
6.0x
3.8x
8.2x
2.8x
10.8x
3.3x
5.0x
11.0x
10.9x
6.1x
15.4x
10.0x
2.8x
9.3x
8.6x
11.5x
5.2x

7.0x
7.4x
10.3x
9.2x
6.3x
16.4x
10.1x
5.9x
10.7x
13.0x
37.1x
18.6x
12.8x
5.1x
7.6x
14.1x
22.2x
7.7x

6.8x
5.7x
9.9x
9.5x
5.8x
10.4x
10.3x
6.8x
6.5x
9.2x
15.6x
8.0x
10.1x
4.3x
7.5x
9.6x
16.4x
7.9x

$23,668
$29,118
$12,878
$38,798
$14,973
$40,755
$20,337
$30,352
$24,760
$50,552
$10,992
$31,648
$130,517
$23,140
$75,868
$73,456
$46,731
$40,777

$24,896
$27,588
$15,906
$30,436
$17,136
$38,156
$25,673
$28,689
$24,237
$45,394
$13,445
$17,230
$107,478
$27,267
$48,228
$74,316
$33,283
$40,799

$25,675
$27,133
$23,619
$30,677
$18,547
$39,036
$30,602
$28,865
$18,541
$43,020
$17,034
$15,848
$105,030
$28,959
$45,967
$67,067
$32,326
$39,021

$3.91
$2.43
$0.91
$3.31
$3.17
$4.59
$4.55
$2.98
$0.77
$6.44
$3.83
$3.57
$22.91
$6.81
$5.53
$16.28
$5.34
$10.01

65%
37%
62%
620%
nm
626%
nm
83%
54%
42%
12%
188%
206%
677%
155%
158%
564%
279%

57%
30%
24%
93%
nm
89%
nm
77%
44%
33%
10%
170%
171%
364%
123%
157%
445%
112%

25%
20%
22%
33%
311%
25%
nm
41%
10%
13%
7%
144%
116%
240%
92%
112%
256%
65%

5.6x

7.8x

5.2x

5.8x

7.2x

5.7x

7.8x

12.1x

8.8x

$41,141

$36,011

$35,552

$5.91

231%

122%

88%

1.2x
4.1x
7.7x
nm
0.2x
8.9x
649.3x

5.9x
4.6x
12.7x
nm
4.1x
26.6x
nm

nm
2.5x
7.9x
nm
1.0x
18.4x
nm

nm
3.4x
nm
0.7x
8.3x
nm
n.m.

0.1x
2.6x
nm
nm
154.2x
0.9x
0.3x

nm
1.5x
0.7x
n.m.
42.4x
3.4x
nm

0.4x
4.9x
4.4x
nm
4.5x
6.1x
1.9x

3.0x
4.8x
7.8x
nm
12.4x
13.7x
n.m.

18.2x
2.9x
6.0x
n.m.
9.7x
12.1x
nm

$4,881
$47,202
$25,331
$18,204
$38,704
$42,780
$1,019

$12,324
$43,893
$26,817
$35,992
$57,383
$44,303
$8,833

$23,732
$34,939
$31,003
$50,286
$79,873
$51,437
$17,131

$0.51
$7.19
$4.32
$0.47
$12.26
$17.76
$0.08

47%
86%
172%
238%
nm
245%
104%

47%
56%
159%
28%
nm
241%
104%

--------

10.8x

7.4x

1.0x

12.0x

3.7x

8.3x

9.8x

$25,446

$32,792

$41,200

$6.08

149%

106%

---------------

---------------

---------------

---------------

---------------

Company

EV/Boe/d

Junior

Average

International
Bankers Petroleum
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Oryx Petroleum
Pacific Exploration & Production
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

BNK
CNE
GTE
OXC
PRE
PXT
TGL

$0.76
$2.23
$2.88
$0.50
$0.48
$8.40
$1.83

Average

4.4x

BDI
CFW
FRC
EFX
ESI
MTL
PSI
PD
SVY
SES
TOT
TCW
TDG
WRG

$5.05
$1.23
$3.24
$11.77
$6.47
$14.10
$16.49
$4.26
$1.05
$6.00
$12.80
$0.45
$1.61
$2.94

Average
Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

--------

--------

4.1x

P/CF

Oilfield Services
Black Diamond Group
Calfrac Well Services
Canyon Services Group
Enerflex
Ensign Energy Services
Mullen Group
Pason Systems
Precision Drilling
Savanna Energy Services
Secure Energy Services
Total Energy Services
Trican Well Service
Trinidad Drilling
Western Energy Services

--------

P/E

EV/EBITDA

D/CF

2014

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

2.5x
-8.7x
7.2x
5.6x
3.4x
9.0x
16.5x
3.4x
1.1x
8.5x
20.6x
-0.9x
2.8x
7.0x

3.9x
nm
7.7x
6.4x
5.2x
10.1x
21.0x
6.3x
1.9x
7.4x
13.1x
3.6x
18.2x
13.6x

3.3x
1.9x
3.6x
6.1x
3.9x
8.6x
14.1x
3.4x
1.2x
5.6x
7.6x
0.8x
5.5x
5.0x

13.5x
nm
nm
9.1x
nm
32.2x
nm
5.4x
nm
nm
31.9x
nm
25.2x
nm

nm
nm
nm
14.9x
nm
31.0x
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

17.2x
nm
22.6x
11.9x
nm
18.3x
nm
nm
nm
25.0x
15.3x
1.1x
nm
nm

2.5x
nm
2.2x
2.2x
2.5x
4.5x
nm
4.5x
3.2x
2.1x
0.2x
nm
5.3x
6.5x

3.9x
nm
2.1x
1.8x
3.2x
4.8x
nm
8.7x
4.7x
2.1x
nm
24.9x
37.3x
13.7x

3.0x
11.7x
1.2x
1.7x
2.1x
4.1x
nm
4.4x
2.6x
1.1x
nm
5.7x
12.3x
4.9x

4.5x
26.2x
8.5x
5.7x
5.6x
9.0x
12.1x
6.1x
3.4x
8.4x
7.8x
-62.8x
5.7x
6.7x

6.4x
20.9x
13.4x
6.5x
8.7x
10.0x
19.7x
9.4x
4.7x
9.0x
11.9x
24.1x
8.7x
11.8x

5.1x
8.3x
4.5x
6.0x
5.9x
8.4x
12.2x
5.6x
3.1x
6.0x
6.6x
5.6x
6.6x
6.0x

7.3x

9.1x

5.0x

19.5x

22.9x

15.9x

3.2x

9.8x

4.6x

8.4x

11.8x

6.4x

P/TBook
0.6x
0.2x
0.8x
2.6x
0.5x
2.8x
3.2x
0.6x
0.1x
1.1x
1.0x
0.1x
0.3x
0.4x
1.0x

3) Oilfield Services, Junior E&Ps, Large Caps and Integrated E&Ps D/CF calculated using Net Debt; Dividend-Paying, and International's D/CF calculated using Current Assets
minus Current Liabilities.

---------------

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

10

Exhibit 9. Comparables (Strip Pricing) Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos

2015E CFPS
Company

2015E Production

2016E CFPS

2016E Production

Ticker

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$2.03

$2.27

-10%

$2.03

280,643

280,656

0%

$1.71

$2.20

-22%

$1.08

272,674

280,503

-3%

Husky Energy
Imperial Oil
Suncor Energy

HSE
IMO
SU

$3.37
$3.50
R

$3.56
$3.67
R

-5%
-5%
R

$3.37
$3.50
R

345,974
362,041
R

343,597
379,404
R

1%
-5%
R

$3.29
$3.10
R

$4.09
$4.38
R

-20%
-29%
R

$1.68
$2.40
R

350,163
420,341
R

359,228
434,964
R

-3%
-3%
R

Integrated

Average

-7%

-1%

-24%

-3%

Large Cap
Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Oil Sands
Encana
Tourmaline Oil

CNQ
COS
ECA (US)
TOU

$5.10
R
$1.69
$3.94

$5.00
R
$1.71
$3.27

Average

2%
R
-1%
20%

$5.10
R
$1.69
$3.95

853,422
R
403,899
154,550

839,255
R
403,451
156,484

7%

2%
R
0%
-1%

$4.08
R
$1.20
$4.02

$5.46
R
$1.66
$4.05

0%

-25%
R
-27%
-1%

$2.82
R
$0.82
$3.26

835,385
R
362,938
198,833

849,125
R
369,879
201,507

-18%

-2%
R
-2%
-1%
-2%

Dividend-Paying
ARC Resources
Baytex Energy
Bonavista Energy
Bonterra Energy
Cardinal Energy
Crescent Point Energy
Enerplus
Freehold Royalties
Granite Oil
Lightstream Resources
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth Energy
Penn West Petroleum
Peyto Exploration
PrairieSky Royalty
Surge Energy
TORC Oil & Gas
Trilogy Energy
Twin Butte Energy
Vermilion Energy
Whitecap Resources

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
GXO
LTS
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average

$2.17
$2.58
$1.77
$3.58
$1.58
$4.02
$2.39
$1.11
$1.60
$0.96
$1.59
$0.85
$0.47
$3.46
$1.19
$0.58
$0.78
$0.85
$0.51
$4.57
$1.71

$2.23
$2.62
$1.74
$3.46
$1.62
$4.11
$2.54
$1.11
$1.70
$0.99
$1.65
$0.84
$0.51
$3.51
$1.04
$0.56
$0.99
$0.92
$0.51
$4.63
$1.72

-3%
-1%
1%
3%
-2%
-2%
-6%
0%
-6%
-3%
-3%
2%
-7%
-1%
14%
3%
-21%
-7%
2%
-1%
-1%
-2%

$2.18
$2.56
$1.79
$3.61
$1.65
$4.04
$2.41
$1.11
$1.65
$0.98
$1.55
$0.85
$0.48
$3.50
$1.19
$0.58
$0.84
$0.87
$0.51
$4.58
$1.71

114,807
87,000
81,000
13,000
11,200
163,500
101,000
10,687
6,636
31,600
21,800
72,000
91,250
86,500
16,983
16,350
15,480
30,000
17,500
55,250
40,000

115,046
84,800
79,950
12,816
11,650
163,506
84,800
10,398
5,502
31,303
21,511
71,278
86,799
85,067
17,552
16,498
15,455
29,279
17,501
54,954
40,725

0%
3%
1%
1%
-4%
0%
19%
3%
21%
1%
1%
1%
5%
2%
-3%
-1%
0%
2%
0%
1%
-2%
2%

$2.00
$1.88
$1.55
$3.26
$1.07
$3.23
$1.76
$1.01
$1.08
$0.22
$1.35
$0.70
$0.43
$3.90
$0.86
$0.32
$0.81
$0.92
$0.21
$4.16
$1.29

$2.43
$2.30
$1.61
$3.85
$1.64
$3.92
$2.28
$1.11
$1.35
$0.49
$1.62
$0.71
$0.60
$4.11
$1.08
$0.48
$1.12
$1.01
$0.30
$5.83
$1.62

-18%
-18%
-4%
-15%
-35%
-18%
-23%
-9%
-21%
-56%
-16%
-2%
-28%
-5%
-20%
-35%
-28%
-9%
-29%
-29%
-20%

$1.69
$1.69
$1.26
$1.25
$1.92
$0.72
$2.45
$1.03
$0.68
$0.76
-$0.12
$1.10
$0.63
$0.05
$3.40
$0.71
$0.14
$0.52
$0.68
$0.07
$2.91

-21%

Notes:
1) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. Consensus numbers converted from $CAD to $USD using currency strip pricing; 0.782 USD/CAD for 2015 and 0.77 USD/CAD for 2016.
2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

124,000
89,000
85,000
13,800
11,700
179,000
103,500
10,169
3,900
27,000
22,500
73,000
90,250
103,000
22,044
14,250
18,650
27,500
17,000
65,000
44,000

123,761
79,831
80,001
12,860
14,360
172,406
103,394
10,147
4,167
25,643
21,274
66,067
73,069
102,044
17,640
14,081
18,111
26,725
16,587
63,410
42,648

0%
11%
6%
7%
-19%
4%
0%
0%
-6%
5%
6%
10%
24%
1%
25%
1%
3%
3%
2%
3%
3%
4%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 10. CIBC vs Consensus Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&Ps

11

2015E CFPS
Company

2015E Production

2016E CFPS

2016E Production

Ticker

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

CIBC Strip

CIBC Base

Consensus

Difference

Advantage Oil & Gas

AAV

$0.71

$0.79

-9%

$0.71

23,524

24,719

-5%

$1.02

$1.14

-11%

$0.92

32,696

33,752

-3%

Bellatrix Exploration
Birchcliff Energy
Cequence Energy
Crew Energy
Journey Energy
Kelt Exploration
Long Run Exploration
NuVista Energy
Painted Pony Petroleum
Paramount Resources
Perpetual Energy
Pine Cliff Energy
Raging River Exploration
RMP Energy
Seven Generations Energy
Spartan Energy
Storm Resources
Tamarack Valley

BXE
BIR
CQE
CR
JOY
KEL
LRE
NVA
PPY
POU
PMT
PNE
RRX
RMP
VII
SPE
SRX
TVE

$0.52
$1.05
$0.12
$0.49
$1.14
$0.35
$0.69
$0.82
$0.32
$0.75
$0.01
$0.10
$0.83
$0.75
$1.41
$0.23
$0.32
$0.62

$0.53
$1.11
$0.14
$0.66
$1.16
$0.40
$0.70
$0.86
$0.41
$1.16
$0.02
$0.11
$0.82
$0.77
$1.54
$0.24
$0.39
$0.65

-2%
-6%
-15%
-25%
-2%
-12%
0%
-4%
-22%
-36%
-37%
-6%
2%
-3%
-9%
-4%
-18%
-5%

$0.57
$1.08
$0.12
$0.51
$1.21
$0.38
$0.72
$0.85
$0.33
$0.90
$0.02
$0.10
$0.88
$0.78
$1.48
$0.25
$0.33
$0.66

41,389
39,035
9,500
18,566
11,000
18,900
32,775
22,510
15,655
45,000
19,500
12,745
13,600
12,100
60,330
8,789
9,898
8,280

41,041
39,530
10,143
19,485
10,485
19,225
32,609
22,534
16,126
47,679
20,189
12,159
13,584
12,083
58,556
8,742
10,960
8,153

1%
-1%
-6%
-5%
5%
-2%
1%
0%
-3%
-6%
-3%
5%
0%
0%
3%
1%
-10%
2%

$0.64
$1.23
$0.10
$0.59
$0.86
$0.44
$0.22
$0.81
$0.63
$1.36
$0.01
$0.14
$0.88
$0.57
$2.45
$0.25
$0.30
$0.57

$0.69
$1.48
$0.16
$0.78
$1.12
$0.69
$0.28
$0.93
$0.83
$3.14
$0.07
$0.13
$1.02
$0.75
$2.36
$0.32
$0.63
$0.72

-7%
-16%
-39%
-25%
-23%
-37%
-24%
-13%
-25%
-57%
-79%
5%
-14%
-24%
4%
-22%
-53%
-21%

$0.49
$0.89
$0.05
$0.45
$0.47
$0.24
$0.12
$0.73
$0.45
$0.50
-$0.06
$0.07
$0.65
$0.42
$1.99
$0.15
$0.16
$0.42

39,750
44,775
10,500
24,000
11,200
22,000
30,000
25,260
23,000
55,635
18,015
22,960
17,000
10,750
103,500
9,106
15,387
8,931

39,405
43,476
10,771
26,555
10,132
22,658
27,344
26,449
22,998
62,693
19,407
12,024
14,995
12,548
96,391
9,292
17,383
9,344

1%
3%
-3%
-10%
11%
-3%
10%
-4%
0%
-11%
-7%
91%
13%
-14%
7%
-2%
-11%
-4%

Junior

Average

-11%

-1%

-26%

4%

International
Bankers Petroleum
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Oryx Petroleum
Pacific Rubiales
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy
Average

BNK
CNE
GTE
OXC
PRE
PXT
TGL

$0.61
$0.54
$0.41
-$0.16
$2.14
$0.96
$0.07

$0.76
$0.93
$0.50
-$0.24
$2.13
$1.34
$0.29

Oilfield Services
Company
Black Diamond Group
Calfrac Well Services
Canyon Services Group
Enerflex
Ensign Energy Services
Mullen Group
Pason Systems
Precision Drilling
Savanna Energy Services
Secure Energy Services
Total Energy Services
Trican Well Service
Trinidad Drilling
Western Energy Services

-20%
-42%
-19%
-31%
0%
-28%
-77%
-31%

$0.61
$0.54
$0.37
-$0.17
$1.99
$0.94
$0.00

19,385
11,504
23,538
2,376
175,065
27,400
14,584

Difference
0%
0%
3%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
52%
1%
-5%
1%
-2%
-9%
3%

CIBC Base
$64
$45
$21
$185
$183
$191
$63
$317
$71
$118
$32
$22
$126
$37

2015E Revenue
Ticker
BDI
CFW
FRC
EFX
ESI
MTL
PSI
PD
SVY
SES
TOT
TCW
TDG
WRG

Average
Notes:
1) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Base
$288
$1,479
$419
$1,635
$1,396
$1,232
$286
$2,351
$441
$1,330
$296
$1,289
$502
$234

Consensus
$289
$1,479
$408
$1,655
$1,408
$1,239
$289
$1,550
$436
$1,399
$292
$1,311
$553
$228

19,736
11,504
19,041
1,972
166,160
27,570
14,185

-2%
0%
24%
21%
5%
-1%
3%
7%

$0.17
$0.57
$0.70
-$0.04
$3.77
$1.56
$0.54

$0.66
$1.88
$0.80
$0.01
$1.95
$1.84
$0.73

2015E EBITDA

3%

Consensus
$92
$29
$33
$218
$312
$227
$101
$471
$99
$114
$53
-$26
$181
$60

-74%
-70%
-12%
-820%
93%
-15%
-26%
-132%

$0.13
$0.48
$0.23
-$0.30
$0.12
$0.32
-$0.50

16,547
14,414
28,407
6,274
147,168
30,886
13,218

Difference
-16%
-5%
-21%
-3%
-25%
-9%
-15%
-13%
-21%
-15%
-14%
-24%
-38%
-20%

CIBC Base
$78
$120
$67
$197
$257
$226
$107
$515
$100
$166
$60
$99
$176
$72

2016E Revenue
Difference
-31%
57%
-35%
-15%
-41%
-16%
-37%
-33%
-28%
3%
-39%
-185%
-31%
-39%
-33%

CIBC Base
$207
$1,133
$328
$1,287
$914
$1,130
$233
$1,176
$309
$1,262
$222
$879
$344
$182

Consensus
$247
$1,192
$415
$1,325
$1,212
$1,237
$273
$1,354
$392
$1,490
$259
$1,155
$551
$229

19,463
22,046
22,612
5,572
130,064
30,692
13,713

-15%
-35%
26%
13%
13%
1%
-4%
0%

2016E EBITDA

-17%

Consensus
$82
$54
$47
$192
$258
$215
$99
$374
$81
$143
$48
$56
$164
$52

Difference
-5%
122%
44%
3%
-1%
5%
8%
38%
23%
16%
23%
78%
8%
38%
28%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

12

Exhibit 11. CIBC vs Consensus Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Cos

CIBC Base Price Case

Production Per Share Growth

CFPS Growth

EPS Growth

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

6%

-2%

-3%

11%

3%

-4%

-56%

-16%

59%

15%

-46%

-119%

176%

-199%

70%

Husky Energy

HSE

9%

2%

-5%

-2%

5%

6%

-40%

-2%

43%

19%

-4%

-102%

-375%

1291%

43%

Imperial Oil

IMO

5%

17%

16%

6%

3%

24%

-44%

-12%

86%

13%

9%

-63%

-44%

198%

17%

Suncor Energy

SU

7%

6%

3%

5%

4%

9%

-47%

-10%

63%

15%

-14%

-94%

-81%

430%

43%
62%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

18%

8%

-2%

7%

8%

27%

-42%

-20%

95%

26%

55%

-97%

-826%

-466%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

-8%

-24%

-13%

-6%

-3%

13%

-57%

-29%

98%

35%

25%

-113%

116%

-240%

107%

TOU

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

39%

27%

25%

2%

5%

64%

-14%

2%

32%

4%

178%

-92%

-282%

-259%

2%

Large Cap Average

17%

4%

3%

1%

3%

35%

-38%

-16%

75%

22%

86%

-101%

-331%

-322%

57%

Total Average

12%

5%

3%

3%

4%

22%

-42%

-13%

69%

19%

36%

-98%

-206%

54%

50%

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

20%

-2%

4%

1%

Production (Boe/d)

Total Cash Flow/Boe

FCF Yield

Cenovus Energy

CVE

284,787

280,643

272,674

303,106

311,669

$31.56

$9.20

$16.89

$20.68

$22.99

5%

Husky Energy

HSE

340,525

345,974

350,163

362,464

390,462

$44.46

$26.27

$26.88

$39.28

$44.28

2%

1%

3%

15%

16%

Imperial Oil

IMO

309,910

362,041

420,341

444,244

459,658

$46.99

$22.53

$17.17

$30.17

$32.94

2%

-1%

2%

7%

7%

Suncor Energy

SU

$41.00

$19.33

$20.31

$30.04

$33.40

3%

7%

1%

9%

8%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

790,199

853,422

835,385

890,949

960,998

$33.24

$17.92

$14.61

$26.80

$31.17

-4%

3%

2%

16%

26%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

478,358

403,899

362,938

343,081

331,726

$15.53

$9.41

$7.69

$16.13

$22.45

-83%

32%

-18%

1%

17%

TOU

112,929

154,550

198,833

202,500

212,667

$22.54

$14.98

$12.23

$15.91

$15.83

-6%

-17%

0%

-2%

-5%

Large Cap Average

$23.77

$14.10

$11.51

$19.61

$23.15

-31%

6%

-6%

5%

12%

Total Average

$32.39

$16.72

$15.91

$24.83

$28.28

-14%

6%

-2%

7%

10%

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 12. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics

13

Forward Strip Case

Production Per Share Growth

CFPS Growth

EPS Growth

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

6%

-2%

-3%

11%

3%

-4%

-56%

-47%

4%

33%

-46%

-119%

550%

5%

-26%

Husky Energy

HSE

9%

2%

-5%

-2%

5%

6%

-40%

-50%

26%

47%

-4%

-102%

4012%

-21%

-62%

Imperial Oil

IMO

5%

17%

16%

6%

3%

24%

-44%

-31%

37%

16%

9%

-63%

-96%

-348%

94%

Suncor Energy

SU

7%

6%

3%

5%

4%

9%

-47%

-43%

22%

32%

-14%

-94%

1489%

-121%

2%
-142%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

18%

8%

-2%

7%

8%

27%

-42%

-45%

58%

32%

55%

-97%

-1955%

nm

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

-8%

-24%

-13%

-6%

-3%

13%

-57%

-51%

-7%

41%

25%

-113%

280%

3%

-27%

TOU

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

39%

27%

25%

2%

5%

64%

-14%

-17%

17%

11%

178%

-91%

-562%

-40%

-27%

Large Cap Average

17%

4%

3%

1%

3%

35%

-38%

-38%

23%

28%

86%

-101%

-746%

-19%

-65%

Total Average

12%

5%

3%

3%

4%

22%

-42%

-40%

23%

30%

36%

-98%

372%

-80%

-32%

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

Production (Boe/d)

Total Cash Flow/Boe

FCF Yield
2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

284,787

280,643

272,674

303,106

311,669

$31.56

$9.20

$12.60

$8.59

$11.00

6%

21%

-6%

-5%

-9%

Husky Energy

HSE

340,525

345,974

350,163

362,464

390,462

$44.46

$26.27

$13.71

$17.72

$24.81

2%

1%

-9%

-5%

-3%

Imperial Oil

IMO

309,910

362,041

420,341

444,244

459,658

$46.99

$22.53

$13.33

$17.23

$19.29

2%

-1%

1%

1%

1%

Suncor Energy

SU

$41.00

$19.33

$13.21

$14.51

$18.36

3%

7%

-5%

-3%

-4%
8%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

790,199

853,422

835,385

890,949

960,998

$33.24

$17.92

$10.08

$15.00

$18.34

-4%

3%

-3%

2%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

478,358

403,899

362,938

343,081

331,726

$15.53

$9.41

$5.24

$5.19

$7.58

-83%

32%

-29%

-43%

-41%

TOU

112,929

154,550

198,833

202,500

212,667

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

$22.54

$15.03

$9.93

$11.44

$12.10

-6%

-17%

-4%

-9%

-11%

Large Cap Average

$23.77

$14.12

$8.42

$10.54

$12.67

-31%

6%

-12%

-17%

-15%

Total Average

$32.39

$16.73

$10.82

$12.53

$15.52

-14%

7%

-8%

-10%

-9%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

14

Exhibit 13. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Operating Metrics

CIBC Base Price Case

11

12

Net Debt/Capitalization

13

14

15

18

19

Net Debt/Cash Flow

20

21

22

Total Payout Ratio

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

31%

15%

21%

21%

23%

1.3x

1.3x

2.2x

1.3x

1.3x

103%

nm

158%

97%

116%

Husky Energy

HSE

16%

32%

32%

25%

20%

0.7x

2.3x

2.2x

1.1x

0.7x

111%

131%

87%

70%

85%

Imperial Oil

IMO

23%

26%

23%

17%

10%

1.3x

2.7x

2.7x

1.1x

0.6x

97%

127%

85%

59%

63%

Suncor Energy

SU

23%

24%

25%

21%

18%

1.1x

2.1x

2.4x

1.2x

0.9x

104%

129%

110%

75%

88%
47%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

33%

38%

41%

34%

20%

1.5x

3.0x

3.9x

1.6x

0.7x

136%

102%

113%

62%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

42%

42%

54%

53%

47%

2.4x

3.5x

6.2x

3.2x

2.2x

175%

21%

161%

101%

83%

TOU

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

21%

23%

24%

25%

27%

1.2x

1.9x

1.8x

1.5x

1.6x

168%

182%

101%

111%

122%

Large Cap Average

32%

34%

40%

37%

31%

1.7x

2.8x

4.0x

2.1x

1.5x

160%

101%

125%

91%

84%

Total Average

28%

29%

32%

29%

25%

1.4x

2.4x

3.2x

1.6x

1.2x

132%

112%

118%

83%

86%

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

CIBC Base

US$50/Bbl,
US$3.00/Mcf

US$60/Bbl,
US$3.50/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,
US$4.00/Mcf

US$80/Bbl,
US$4.50/Mcf
109%

EV/DACF

P/EPS

P/RNAV

Cenovus Energy

CVE

4.6x

8.2x

10.3x

6.9x

6.3x

19.8x

na

na

na

23.0x

76%

nm

nm

161%

Husky Energy

HSE

6.2x

5.8x

5.9x

3.8x

3.0x

6.5x

na

na

10.8x

7.6x

69%

nm

109%

84%

69%

Imperial Oil

IMO

7.9x

14.5x

16.2x

8.3x

6.9x

11.7x

na

na

19.1x

16.4x

94%

nm

nm

174%

117%

Suncor Energy

SU

Integrated Average

6.2x

9.5x

10.8x

6.3x

5.4x

12.6x

nm

nm

15.0x

15.6x

80%

nm

109%

140%

98%
92%

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

6.0x

7.4x

9.1x

4.5x

3.1x

7.9x

na

na

11.7x

7.2x

83%

nm

nm

133%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

2.9x

4.0x

6.7x

3.9x

2.9x

3.6x

na

na

9.1x

4.4x

46%

nm

135%

55%

35%

TOU

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

11.7x

7.4x

7.1x

5.5x

5.5x

10.0x

na

na

na

na

75%

nm

100%

66%

50%

Large Cap Average

6.9x

6.3x

7.6x

4.7x

3.8x

7.2x

nm

na

10.4x

5.8x

68%

nm

117%

85%

59%

Total Average

6.6x

7.9x

9.2x

5.5x

4.6x

9.9x

nm

nm

12.7x

11.7x

74%

nm

115%

112%

79%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 14. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation

15

Forward Strip Case

Net Debt/Capitalization

Net Debt/Cash Flow

Total Payout Ratio

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

31%

15%

24%

33%

43%

1.3x

1.3x

4.0x

5.2x

5.4x

103%

nm

249%

236%

243%

Husky Energy

HSE

16%

32%

40%

46%

54%

0.7x

2.3x

5.4x

4.6x

3.6x

111%

131%

171%

156%

151%

Imperial Oil

IMO

23%

26%

25%

26%

27%

1.3x

2.7x

3.8x

2.8x

2.5x

97%

127%

110%

103%

108%

Suncor Energy

SU

23%

24%

30%

35%

41%

1.1x

2.1x

4.4x

4.2x

3.8x

104%

129%

177%

165%

167%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

33%

38%

44%

47%

45%

1.5x

3.0x

6.2x

4.0x

2.8x

136%

102%

163%

111%

80%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

42%

42%

57%

65%

70%

2.4x

3.5x

9.7x

12.6x

10.4x

175%

21%

237%

315%

245%

TOU

21%

23%

26%

31%

36%

1.2x

1.8x

2.4x

2.6x

3.0x

168%

181%

125%

154%

160%

Large Cap Average

32%

34%

42%

47%

51%

1.7x

2.8x

6.1x

6.4x

5.4x

160%

101%

175%

193%

161%

Total Average

28%

29%

36%

41%

46%

1.4x

2.4x

5.3x

5.3x

4.6x

132%

112%

176%

179%

164%

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

US$60/Bbl,
US$3.50/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,
US$4.00/Mcf

US$80/Bbl,
US$4.50/Mcf
88%

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

EV/DACF

P/EPS

P/RNAV
Forward Strip US$50/Bbl,
US$3.00/Mcf

Cenovus Energy

CVE

4.4x

7.9x

14.8x

15.5x

13.6x

19.8x

na

na

na

na

nm

nm

200%

120%

Husky Energy

HSE

6.2x

5.8x

12.2x

10.1x

7.3x

6.5x

na

na

na

na

nm

176%

109%

84%

69%

Imperial Oil

IMO

8.0x

14.7x

21.1x

15.6x

13.6x

11.7x

na

na

na

na

216%

nm

nm

185%

121%

Suncor Energy

SU

6.2x

9.5x

16.0x

13.7x

11.5x

12.6x

nm

na

nm

nm

216%

176%

154%

130%

93%
71%

Integrated Average
Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

6.0x

7.9x

13.9x

9.5x

7.1x

7.9x

na

na

na

na

232%

nm

179%

101%

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

ECA (US)

2.9x

4.0x

9.0x

10.7x

9.4x

3.6x

na

na

na

na

nm

nm

135%

55%

35%

TOU

Encana
Tourmaline Oil

11.7x

7.4x

8.8x

8.0x

7.7x

10.0x

na

na

na

na

98%

244%

100%

66%

50%

Large Cap Average

6.9x

6.4x

10.6x

9.4x

8.1x

7.2x

na

na

na

nm

165%

244%

138%

74%

52%

Total Average

6.5x

8.0x

13.3x

11.6x

9.8x

9.9x

nm

na

nm

nm

182%

210%

144%

102%

72%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

16

Exhibit 15. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Valuation

CIBC Base Price Case

Cash Flow Per Share ($)
Cenovus Energy

CVE
CAGR (%)

Husky Energy

HSE
CAGR (%)

Imperial Oil

IMO
CAGR (%)

Suncor Energy

SU
CAGR (%)

Integrated Average
CAGR (%) Average
Canadian Natural Resources
CAGR (%)
Canadian Oil Sands
CAGR (%)
Encana
CAGR (%)
Tourmaline Oil
CAGR (%)
Large Cap Average
CAGR (%) Average
Total Average
CAGR (%) Average

CNQ
COS
ECA
TOU

Forward Strip Case

Earnings Per Share ($)

Cash Flow Per Share ($)

Earnings Per Share ($)

2014
$4.59
-4%
$5.62
6%
$6.25
24%
R
R
$5.49
3%

2015E
$2.03
-35%
$3.37
-20%
$3.50
-17%
R
R
$2.97
-26%

2016E
$1.71
-29%
$3.29
-15%
$3.10
-15%
R
R
$2.70
-20%

2017E
$2.72
-13%
$4.70
-3%
$5.75
3%
R
R
$4.39
-5%

2018E
$3.12
-8%
$5.58
1%
$6.50
5%
R
R
$5.07
-1%

2014
$0.84
-46%
$2.07
-4%
$3.63
9%
R
R
$2.18
-7%

2015E
-$0.16
na
-$0.03
na
$1.33
-37%
R
R
$0.38
-60%

2016E
-$0.43
-165%
$0.09
-65%
$0.74
-39%
R
R
$0.14
-61%

2017E
$0.42
-28%
$1.24
-13%
$2.22
-10%
R
R
$1.29
-14%

2018E
$0.72
-14%
$1.77
-4%
$2.59
-5%
R
R
$1.69
-6%

2014
$4.59
-4%
$5.62
6%
$6.25
24%
R
R
$5.49
3%

2015E
$2.03
-35%
$3.37
-20%
$3.50
-17%
R
R
$2.97
-26%

2016E
$1.08
-39%
$1.68
-32%
$2.40
-22%
R
R
$1.72
-31%

2017E
$1.12
-30%
$2.12
-21%
$3.28
-10%
R
R
$2.18
-20%

2018E
$1.48
-21%
$3.13
-10%
$3.81
-6%
R
R
$2.81
-12%

2014
$0.84
-5%
$2.07
0%
$3.63
1%
R
R
$2.18
-7%

2015E
-$0.16
na
-$0.03
na
$1.33
-6%
R
R
$0.38
-60%

2016E
-$1.01
-197%
-$1.34
-197%
$0.05
-24%
R
R
-$0.76
-169%

2017E
-$1.05
na
-$1.05
na
($0.13)
na
R
R
-$0.74
na

2018E
-$0.78
-196%
($0.41)
-191%
($0.24)
-186%
R
R
($0.48)
-173%

$8.74
27%
R
R
$3.96
13%
$4.58
64%
$5.76
45%
$5.62
20%

$5.10
-14%
R
R
$1.69
-31%
$3.94
19%
$3.58
-5%
$3.27
-16%

$4.08
-16%
R
R
$1.20
-30%
$4.02
13%
$3.10
-8%
$2.90
-15%

$7.96
4%
R
R
$2.38
-9%
$5.31
17%
$5.22
7%
$4.80
1%

$10.02
8%
R
R
$3.20
-2%
$5.55
15%
$6.25
9%
$5.66
4%

$3.47
55%
R
R
$1.35
25%
$2.29
178%
$2.37
72%
$2.27
22%

$0.09
-80%
R
R
-$0.18
na
$0.19
-52%
$0.03
-84%
$0.21
-67%

-$0.64
-166%
R
R
-$0.38
-171%
($0.35)
-175%
-$0.46
-169%
($0.16)
-144%

$2.33
1%
R
R
$0.54
-16%
$0.56
-9%
$1.14
-5%
$1.22
-10%

$3.77
11%
R
R
$1.11
0%
$0.57
-7%
$1.82
6%
$1.76
-1%

$8.74
27%
R
R
$3.96
13%
$4.58
64%
$5.76
45%
$5.62
20%

$5.10
-14%
R
R
$1.69
-31%
$3.95
19%
$3.58
-5%
$3.27
-16%

$2.82
-26%
R
R
$0.82
-38%
$3.26
5%
$2.30
-17%
$2.01
-24%

$4.46
-10%
R
R
$0.76
-32%
$3.82
8%
$3.01
-7%
$2.59
-14%

$5.89
-3%
R
R
$1.08
-21%
$4.24
9%
$3.74
-1%
$3.27
-7%

$3.47
3%
R
R
$1.35
2%
$2.29
8%
$2.37
72%
$2.27
22%

$0.09
-21%
R
R
-$0.18
na
$0.20
-10%
$0.04
-84%
$0.21
-66%

-$1.63
-198%
R
R
-$0.68
-197%
-$0.91
-201%
-$1.07
-192%
-$0.92
-179%

-$0.65
na
R
R
-$0.69
na
-$0.55
na
-$0.63
na
-$0.69
na

$0.27
-12%
R
R
-$0.51
-196%
-$0.40
-196%
($0.21)
-169%
($0.35)
-171%

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 16. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Per Share Metrics

17

CIBC Base Price Case

10

Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions)

11

12

13

15

Cash Flow ($ millions)

16

17

18

19

Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2016E

2017E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$2,790

-$1,111

$1,704

$1,665

$2,470

$3,479

$1,683

$1,414

$2,264

$2,596

$688

-$144

-$290

$599

$126

Husky Energy

HSE

$4,961

$3,162

$2,990

$3,014

$3,994

$5,526

$3,318

$3,435

$5,196

$6,310

$431

$135

$445

$2,182

$2,316

Imperial Oil

IMO

$4,736

$3,331

$1,776

$2,402

$3,009

$5,315

$2,977

$2,634

$4,892

$5,527

-$272

-$471

$858

$2,490

$2,518

Suncor Energy

SU

$4,162

$1,794

$2,157

$2,361

$3,158

$4,773

$2,659

$2,495

$4,117

$4,811

$282

-$160

$338

$1,757

$1,653

$11,581

$4,608

$4,032

$4,421

$4,134

$9,202

$5,501

$4,468

$8,716

$10,962

$521

$355

$436

$4,294

$6,828

Integrated Average

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2018E

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

Encana

ECA

$4,987

$183

$1,600

$2,000

$2,200

$2,966

$1,393

$1,021

$2,019

$2,718

$440

-$816

-$579

$19

$518

Tourmaline Oil

TOU

$1,564

$1,535

$900

$1,300

$1,500

$929

$845

$890

$1,176

$1,229

-$167

-$774

-$10

-$124

-$271

Large Cap Average

$6,044

$2,109

$2,177

$2,574

$2,611

$4,366

$2,580

$2,127

$3,970

$4,970

$265

-$412

-$51

$1,397

$2,358

Total Average

$5,103

$1,951

$2,167

$2,467

$2,885

$4,570

$2,620

$2,311

$4,044

$4,890

$274

-$286

$144

$1,577

$2,006

Forward Strip Case

Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions)

Cash Flow ($ millions)

Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2016E

2017E

2018E

Cenovus Energy

CVE

$2,790

-$1,111

$1,704

$1,665

$2,470

$3,479

$1,683

$896

$933

$1,237

$688

-$144

-$808

-$732

-$1,233

Husky Energy

HSE

$4,961

$3,162

$2,990

$3,014

$3,994

$5,526

$3,318

$1,753

$2,344

$3,536

$431

$135

-$1,238

-$670

-$458

Imperial Oil

IMO

$4,736

$3,331

$1,776

$2,402

$3,009

$5,315

$2,977

$2,045

$2,793

$3,236

-$272

-$471

$269

$391

$227

Suncor Energy

SU

$4,162

$1,794

$2,157

$2,361

$3,158

$4,773

$2,659

$1,564

$2,024

$2,670

$282

-$160

-$592

-$337

-$488

$11,581

$4,608

$4,032

$4,421

$4,134

$9,202

$5,501

$3,082

$4,878

$6,450

$521

$355

-$950

$457

$2,315

Integrated Average

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2014

2015E

Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

Encana

ECA

$4,987

$183

$1,600

$2,000

$2,200

$2,966

$1,393

$696

$649

$918

$440

-$816

-$904

-$1,351

-$1,282

Tourmaline Oil

TOU

-$561

$1,564

$1,535

$900

$1,300

$1,500

$929

$848

$723

$846

$939

-$167

-$772

-$177

-$454

Large Cap Average

$6,044

$2,109

$2,177

$2,574

$2,611

$4,366

$2,580

$1,500

$2,124

$2,769

$265

-$411

-$677

-$449

$158

Total Average

$5,103

$1,951

$2,167

$2,467

$2,885

$4,570

$2,620

$1,532

$2,074

$2,719

$274

-$286

-$635

-$393

-$165

Notes:
1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.
2) All Encana figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.
3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

18

Exhibit 17. Senior Oil & Gas Producers Capital Expenditures, Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 18. Dividend Paying E&Ps Investment Ratings and Valuation

Investment Rating and Valuation
52-Week

Shares

Mkt. Cap

Enterprise Value ($M)

Total
Senior
Conv.

Total
Debt/CF

Bank Credit Lines

Total Cur. Drawn ($M)
Drawn (%)

Target

Expected

Company

Ticker

Price

High

Low

O/S (M)

Cap ($M)

Debt

Notes

Debs.

Value

2015E

2016E

2017E

Avail ($M)

Current

Current

2016E

Price

Return

Rating

Analyst

ARC
Baytex
Bonavista
Bonterra
Cardinal
Crescent Point
Enerplus
Freehold *
Granite
Lightstream
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth
Penn West
Peyto
PrairieSky *
Surge
TORC
Trilogy
Twin Butte
Vermilion
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
GXO
LTS
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

$15.45
$2.36
$1.13
$13.20
$6.46
$13.28
$3.37
$9.62
$6.72
$0.23
$3.25
$0.78
$0.86
$26.61
$19.92
$1.62
$4.14
$2.41
$0.08
$33.92
$6.71

$25.73
$24.87
$9.26
$46.57
$16.84
$33.85
$16.09
$20.62
$7.05
$1.81
$9.75
$4.48
$3.44
$37.31
$34.67
$4.57
$11.57
$10.05
$1.04
$62.80
$15.62

$14.43
$2.23
$1.07
$12.76
$6.15
$11.31
$3.14
$8.50
$4.06
$0.19
$3.05
$0.69
$0.60
$21.55
$18.19
$1.56
$3.88
$2.27
$0.06
$31.73
$6.50

344.2
210.2
217.8
33.1
65.2
504.6
206.5
90.5
30.3
198.0
110.6
543.0
502.2
159.0
228.3
220.9
160.6
126.1
354.0
110.8
298.9

$5,318
$496
$246
$437
$421
$6,701
$696
$945
$204
$45
$360
$424
$432
$4,230
$4,549
$358
$665
$304
$28
$3,759
$2,005
$27,128
$5,493

$996
$1,925
$1,305
$365
$71
$4,158
$1,085
$147
$42
$1,594
$366
$1,980
$1,546
$1,039
-$234
$146
$286
$574
$308
$1,400
$842
$20,030
($87)

$1,036
$1,560
$1,009
$0
$0
$2,213
$1,116
$0
$0
$1,204
$363
$1,556
$1,697
$420
$0
$0
$0
$296
$0
$225
$0
$12,696
na

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$6
$0
$137
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$80
$0
$0
$223
na

$6,314
$2,421
$1,552
$802
$492
$10,860
$1,781
$1,092
$245
$1,638
$726
$2,404
$1,977
$5,269
$4,314
$504
$951
$878
$337
$5,159
$2,848
$47,158
$5,406

1.2x
3.4x
2.9x
3.0x
0.4x
2.1x
2.5x
1.5x
0.6x
8.1x
2.2x
3.8x
8.0x
1.9x
-1.3x
1.2x
1.7x
5.2x
1.5x
2.8x
1.7x
2.9x
0.1x

1.4x
4.2x
3.0x
3.0x
0.4x
2.4x
3.0x
1.3x
1.4x
34.0x
2.2x
4.0x
9.2x
2.0x
-0.9x
2.4x
1.4x
4.4x
3.8x
2.9x
2.1x
4.6x
0.2x

0.9x
2.1x
1.9x
1.4x
0.5x
1.6x
1.6x
0.7x
0.3x
10.2x
0.9x
3.8x
3.8x
1.5x
-0.7x
1.0x
1.1x
2.5x
1.5x
1.7x
1.3x
2.1x
0.0x

$1,040
$1,200
$600
$425
$150
$3,600
$800
$210
$115
$750
$475
$1,250
$1,200
$1,000
$150
$400
$550
$450
$225
$2,000
$1,200

$0
$204
$237
$336
$53
$2,186
$110
$122
$28
$350
$0
$97
$155
$540
$0
$131
$228
$241
$210
$1,270
$783

0%
17%
40%
79%
35%
61%
14%
58%
25%
47%
0%
8%
13%
54%
0%
33%
41%
53%
94%
64%
65%
39%
29%

7%
18%
53%
71%
39%
59%
0%
51%
42%
67%
0%
0%
25%
82%
0%
38%
51%
41%
90%
63%
65%
43%
25%

$24.00
$6.50
$3.00
$21.00
$13.00
$23.00
$6.50
$11.50
$7.50
$0.30
$7.25
$1.50
$1.00
$37.00
$25.00
$3.00
$6.50
$5.50
$0.10
$56.00
$14.50

63%
175%
176%
68%
108%
82%
104%
28%
18%
33%
138%
97%
16%
44%
32%
94%
70%
128%
25%
73%
127%
86%
30%

SO
SP
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
SP
SO
SU
SO
SP
SU
SO
SO
SP
SO
SP
SP
SO
SO

Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Grayfer
Kaliel
Gill
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel
Kaliel

P/Core

P/Risked

P/Bluesky

EV/
Prd'n

EV/P+P
Reserves

Dist'n/Dividends
($ per Share)

Enterprise

Cash Flow from Operations

($ per Share, basic)
Per Share Growth

Cash Yield

P/CF (x)

Core
Risked
P+P NAV NAV

EV/DACF (x)

Company

Ticker

2016E

2017E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

($/sh)

($/sh)

NAV

NAV

NAV

($/boe/d)

($/boe)

ARC
Baytex
Bonavista
Bonterra
Cardinal
Crescent Point
Enerplus
Freehold *
Granite
Lightstream
Northern Blizzard
Pengrowth
Penn West
Peyto
PrairieSky *
Surge
TORC
Trilogy
Twin Butte
Vermilion
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

ARX
BTE
BNP
BNE
CJ
CPG
ERF
FRU
GXO
LTS
NBZ
PGF
PWT
PEY
PSK
SGY
TOG
TET
TBE
VET
WCP

$1.20
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$0.42
$1.20
$0.36
$0.84
$0.42
$0.00
$0.48
$0.04
$0.00
$1.32
$1.30
$0.15
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$2.58
$0.75

$1.20
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$0.42
$1.20
$0.36
$0.84
$0.60
$0.00
$0.48
$0.04
$0.00
$1.32
$1.30
$0.15
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$2.58
$0.75

7.8%
0.0%
10.6%
9.1%
6.5%
9.0%
10.7%
8.7%
6.3%
0.0%
14.8%
5.1%
0.0%
5.0%
6.5%
9.3%
13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
11.2%
6.6%
7.6%

7.8%
0.0%
10.6%
9.1%
6.5%
9.0%
10.7%
8.7%
8.9%
0.0%
14.8%
5.1%
0.0%
5.0%
6.5%
9.3%
13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
11.2%
6.8%
7.6%

$2.17
$2.58
$1.77
$3.58
$1.58
$4.02
$2.39
$1.11
$1.60
$0.96
$1.59
$0.85
$0.47
$3.46
$1.19
$0.58
$0.78
$0.85
$0.51
$4.57
$1.71

$2.00
$1.88
$1.55
$3.26
$1.07
$3.23
$1.76
$1.01
$1.08
$0.22
$1.35
$0.70
$0.43
$3.90
$0.86
$0.32
$0.81
$0.92
$0.21
$4.16
$1.29

$2.64
$3.10
$2.01
$5.25
$2.33
$4.44
$2.93
$1.30
$1.84
$0.71
$1.92
$0.68
$0.99
$5.33
$1.09
$0.59
$1.41
$1.39
$0.43
$6.00
$1.81

-7.6%
-27.3%
-12.1%
-8.9%
-32.4%
-19.6%
-26.5%
-8.8%
nm
-77.4%
-15.1%
-17.7%
-8.5%
13.0%
-56.4%
-45.6%
3.8%
8.6%
-58.9%
-8.8%
-24.3%
-20.3%
-32.6%

32.0%
65.3%
29.1%
61.2%
118.2%
37.4%
66.4%
28.8%
71.1%
228.3%
42.0%
-3.3%
128.5%
36.5%
25.8%
87.2%
74.2%
50.5%
104.6%
44.0%
40.5%
69.1%
27.3%

7.1x
0.9x
0.6x
3.7x
4.1x
3.3x
1.4x
12.8x
nm
0.2x
2.0x
0.9x
1.8x
7.7x
16.8x
2.8x
5.3x
2.8x
0.2x
7.4x
3.9x
3.1x
14.8x

7.7x
1.3x
0.7x
4.0x
6.0x
4.1x
1.9x
8.7x
6.2x
1.0x
2.4x
1.1x
2.0x
6.8x
23.1x
5.1x
5.1x
2.6x
0.4x
8.1x
5.2x
3.8x
15.9x

5.8x
0.8x
0.6x
2.5x
2.8x
3.0x
1.2x
6.8x
3.7x
0.3x
1.7x
1.1x
0.9x
5.0x
18.4x
2.7x
2.9x
1.7x
0.2x
5.7x
3.7x
2.4x
12.6x

7.7x
3.2x
3.1x
5.5x
5.8x
4.6x
3.4x
14.6x
nm
4.7x
3.0x
3.6x
4.1x
8.0x
23.5x
3.4x
7.1x
5.0x
1.5x
8.4x
5.1x
4.8x
19.0x

7.3x
2.9x
2.9x
4.4x
7.0x
4.5x
3.3x
9.6x
7.0x
5.4x
3.2x
3.3x
3.5x
7.0x
22.5x
4.2x
6.7x
4.3x
2.0x
6.8x
4.6x
4.8x
16.0x

6.2x
2.5x
2.2x
3.6x
3.1x
4.2x
2.5x
7.4x
3.8x
5.7x
2.3x
3.8x
3.8x
6.1x
17.9x
3.5x
3.7x
3.6x
1.6x
6.5x
4.7x
3.9x
12.6x

$7.53
$8.23
$2.40
$13.06
$10.65
$14.11
$7.38
$7.10
$4.63
$0.59
$11.69
$2.54
$1.08
$9.53
$17.36
$4.22
$4.87
$3.09
$1.20
$46.70
$6.42

$26.92
$23.60
$9.26
$38.40
$12.26
$34.57
$13.40
na
$5.57
$1.70
$15.03
$4.17
$5.27
$33.54
na
$5.02
$6.99
$11.17
$1.33
$57.82
$15.84

205%
29%
47%
101%
61%
94%
46%
136%
145%
38%
28%
31%
79%
279%
115%
38%
85%
78%
7%
73%
105%
83%
125%

57%
10%
12%
34%
53%
38%
25%
na
121%
13%
22%
19%
16%
79%
na
32%
59%
22%
6%
59%
42%
38%
na

29%
6%
7%
19%
43%
22%
16%
na
44%
6%
18%
13%
5%
45%
na
26%
32%
8%
5%
43%
27%
22%
na

$50,917
$27,203
$18,253
$58,148
$34,012
$60,668
$17,210
$107,374
$56,967
$60,681
$32,265
$32,930
$21,910
$51,154
$195,714
$35,364
$49,817
$31,914
$19,805
$79,375
$64,718
$42,280
$151,544

$9.56
$5.61
$3.64
$8.60
$8.05
$11.71
$4.58
na
$14.48
$10.19
$4.58
$4.54
$3.69
$9.91
na
$5.66
$10.98
$6.41
$5.50
$20.90
$11.41
$8.4
na

2014A
$98.84
$93.03
$94.62
$82.32
$4.35
$4.47
$0.91

CIBC Base Assumptions

2015E
2016E
2017E
$52.33
$45.75
$68.00
$48.71
$45.00
$65.00
$57.29
$56.94
$78.67
$45.21
$43.13
$68.47
$2.61
$2.60
$3.25
$2.70
$2.78
$3.40
$0.78
$0.72
$0.75

Price Forecast
BRENT (US$/bbl)
WTI (US$/bbl)
Ed. Par (C$/bbl)
WCS Heavy (C$/bbl)
NYMEX (US$/mcf)
Natural Gas (C$/mcf)
F/X (US$/C$)

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

LT
$78.00
$75.00
$86.25
$75.94
$3.50
$3.13
$0.80

Notes: E&P Total/Averages exclude Spyglass. Royalty averages include Freehold and PrairieSky, as denoted by their asterix. PrairieSky's 2014 estimates are in consideration of a 219-day stub year. Shares outstanding, net debt,
and convertible debentures are based on most recent information adjusted for any equity issues or acquisitions. Debt-to-cash flow (D/CF) ratios are based on estimated year-end debt and total cash flow for 2013E and 2014E. Ratio
of enterprise value to proved plus probable (P+P) reserves based on YE/14 reserve estimates adjusted for 2015 acquisitions YTD. Ratio of enterprise value to daily production is based on 2015E estimated production. Total debt
includes convertible debentures as debt. Dividends per share represent declared dividends, and are based on the actual shares outstanding at the time of each dividend. Cash flow from operations per share is based on the weighted
average of shares outstanding during the fiscal year. Core NAV is based on a blowdown analysis of P+P reserves, using a 9% after-tax discount rate, and is net of G&A, mgmt. fees, and abandonment costs. Risked NAV = Core NAV
+ Risked Unbooked Value. Bluesky NAV = Core NAV + Unrisked Unbooked Value. Ratings: SO=Sector Outperformer, SP=Sector Performer, SU=Sector Underperformer, R=Restricted. Source: Company reports; CIBC estimates.

19

Netback Analysis ($/boe) - 2016E

Company

Gross
Revenue
($/boe)

Hedging
($/boe)

Royalties
($/boe)

ARC

$26.35

$4.04

Baytex

$35.10

Bonavista
Bonterra

CFPS Sensitivity (2016E)

Oil
Gas
FX
(US$5.00
(C$1.00
(US/CAD
/bbl)
/mcf)
$0.05)

(%)

Operating
Costs
($/boe)

Operating
Netback
($/boe)

($3.02)

11%

($7.90)

$19.47

4.7%

8.5%

$3.38

($8.44)

24%

($10.18)

$19.86

11.2%

$20.77

$2.36

($1.93)

9%

($6.75)

$14.46

$43.75

$0.00

($3.54)

8%

($12.00)

$28.21

Cardinal

$40.17

$3.43

($5.22)

13%

($21.50)

Crescent Point

$46.38

$5.50

($7.67)

17%

Enerplus

$26.76

$2.35

($6.68)

Freehold *

$36.75

$0.00

Granite

$48.72

Lightstream

$39.22

Northern Blizzard

2016E Hedging
Oil
Avg Flr.
(US$/Bbl)

% Total
Volume
Hedged

Gain/
Loss
(% of CF)

% Vol
Hedged

6.2%

32%

26%

23%

$54.03

2.1%

9.9%

26%

24%

27%

5.6%

13.2%

7.3%

39%

20%

8.4%

3.7%

7.0%

0%

0%

$16.88

7.2%

1.3%

6.0%

14%

($12.25)

$31.96

7.8%

1.0%

5.6%

25%

($8.84)

$13.58

9.2%

12.7%

($0.72)

2%

($4.75)

$31.28

13.2%

7.0%

($0.88)

($13.64)

28%

($6.00)

$26.69

10.7%

$0.75

($4.79)

12%

($12.50)

$22.68

23.8%

$39.33

$9.73

($4.53)

12%

($17.25)

$27.29

5.6%

0.5%

Pengrowth

$31.21

$11.08

($3.59)

11%

($15.00)

$23.70

4.8%

Penn West

$36.87

$1.14

($3.78)

10%

($19.35)

$14.87

18.0%

Peyto

$19.89

$0.67

($0.92)

5%

($1.85)

$17.79

PrairieSky *

$30.13

$0.00

($1.21)

4%

($3.10)

Surge

$37.46

($0.10)

($6.61)

18%

($14.00)

TORC

$47.17

$0.00

($8.49)

18%

($13.07)

Trilogy

$26.82

$1.73

($1.70)

6%

Twin Butte

$38.85

$1.81

($4.81)

Vermilion

$41.89

$2.68

($2.83)

Whitecap

$42.25

$3.61

($5.67)

E&P Total/Average

$36.26

$2.80

($5.15)

$0.00

($0.96)

Royalty Total/Average

Company

Oil
(bbl/d)

2015E Production
Gas
Total
(mmcf/d)
(boe/d)

Outflows ($M)

Nat. Gas

Outflows vs. Inflows Analysis (2016E)

Inflows ($M)
Cash
Flow
DRIP

Basic

$186

109%

60%

138%

100%

55%

$398

$0

92%

0%

92%

115%

40%

$26

$342

$1

73%

7%

73%

112%

31%

$40

$108

$0

74%

37%

74%

88%

72%

$25

$27

$72

$4

69%

38%

73%

69%

81%

$3.76

$1,000

$606

$1,633

$0

98%

37%

98%

119%

46%

0%

---

$350

$74

$363

$0

117%

20%

117%

154%

25%

na

na

$15

$84

$100

$13

87%

83%

98%

87%

0%

---

$21

$13

$34

$0

101%

38%

101%

101%

na

10%

$2.91

$90

$0

$43

$0

209%

0%

209%

71%

0%

0%

---

$100

$55

$156

$40

79%

35%

100%

80%

60%

$65.56

76%

$3.33

$150

$22

$384

$0

45%

6%

45%

82%

48%

$51.60

15%

$3.08

$325

$0

$217

$0

150%

0%

150%

83%

9%

---

44%

$2.96

$615

$210

$621

$0

133%

34%

133%

121%

50%

na

$0

$298

$198

$42

124%

150%

150%

124%

na

$3.50

$50

$33

$70

$0

119%

48%

119%

120%

57%

$90

$89

$134

$31

108%

66%

133%

108%

na

$100

$0

$117

$0

85%

0%

85%

83%

21%

$75

$0

113%

0%

113%

101%

37%

$476

$162

91%

62%

122%

103%

60%

$0

97%

58%

97%

82%

65%

$6,330

$424

103%

29%

109%

100%

50%

$299

$54

106%

117%

124%

106%

na

Avg Flr.
(C$/Mcf)

Dev.
Capex

Dividend

37%

$5.16

$550

$422

$704

$55.41

24%

$3.66

$365

$0

9%

$59.56

53%

$3.55

$225

0%

---

0%

---

$40

25%

16%

$62.60

0%

---

29%

21%

29%

$59.77

30%

10.6%

11%

23%

24%

$64.35

9.3%

na

na

na

na

0.6%

7.9%

13%

-4%

14%

$59.42

10.1%

19.3%

9%

17%

9%

$50.49

3.3%

58%

46%

61%

$54.91

5.0%

4.1%

64%

68%

56%

8.8%

15.1%

14%

14%

14%

1.1%

16.5%

3.9%

40%

4%

0%

$25.83

5.8%

8.7%

6.0%

na

na

na

na

na

$16.75

12.2%

4.8%

9.9%

19%

-1%

9%

$43.20

50%

$23.61

12.5%

1.6%

9.6%

0%

0%

0%

---

0%

---

($9.50)

$17.35

4.5%

24.0%

7.7%

12%

14%

34%

$55.57

0%

---

12%

($18.75)

$17.10

11.4%

1.2%

8.6%

6%

14%

7%

$61.20

0%

$3.95

$85

$0

7%

($10.39)

$31.34

7.8%

2.4%

7.0%

19%

13%

4%

$58.67

33%

$6.50

$285

$295

13%

($10.00)

$30.19

9.0%

2.8%

4.4%

13%

14%

13%

$64.27

13%

$3.79

$150

$224

$386

14%

($11.95)

$21.78

9.2%

6.4%

8.1%

22%

18%

18%

$57.54

20%

$3.85

$4,616

$2,136

3%

($3.92)

$28.55

9.5%

7.8%

7.7%

na

na

na

na

na

na

$15

$382

(% Gas)

Oil
(bbl/d)

2016E Production
Gas
Total
(mmcf/d)
(boe/d)

(% Gas)

Gross Production
2015
2016

2016E Payout Ratios

Total
Total
(incl. DRIP)

Outflows as
% Inflows
(Exc. Disp)

% Vol
Hedged

Production Growth
Prod. Per Share (PPS)
PPS + Dist. Reinvested
2015
2016
2015
2016

PPS + Dist. + Debt Adj't

2015
2016

Opening
Balance
YE/13A

P+P Reserve Reconciliation (mmboe) - 2014A

Develop.
Net
Drilling
Acq's
& Rev.
Prod'n

Closing
Balance
YE/14A + Acq.

Sustainable

na

Reserve Life Index (Years)

Proved
Proved
Devp'd
Proved
+ Prob.

ARC

40,182

442.9

114,807

65%

43,750

469.5

124,000

64%

1%

7%

-5%

5%

0%

10%

6%

9%

633.9

(20.0)

87.5

(40.7)

660.7

4.8

8.8

15.3

Baytex

69,256

91.5

87,000

18%

59,252

100.5

89,000

22%

46%

-10%

14%

-4%

-15%

-16%

55%

-7%

318.1

108.4

33.7

(28.6)

431.6

3.6

8.4

12.8

Bonavista

23,070

339.2

81,000

71%

24,883

318.7

85,000

68%

3%

-2%

1%

3%

6%

0%

13%

64%

398.5

(0.8)

57.1

(28.1)

426.8

5.4

8.8

13.6

Bonterra

9,488

18.8

13,000

25%

9,530

18.4

13,800

24%

-4%

0%

-4%

5%

-1%

3%

-17%

7%

75.0

13.1

10.0

(4.8)

93.3

8.3

16.0

20.6

Cardinal

10,223

5.9

11,200

9%

10,213

8.9

11,700

13%

50%

24%

9%

4%

19%

17%

11%

38%

21.2

23.6

1.1

(2.9)

61.2

8.7

9.4

12.5

Crescent Point

147,653

93.6

163,500

10%

150,916

99.5

179,000

10%

16%

3%

2%

1%

11%

2%

7%

4%

663.8

218.2

97.1

(51.4)

927.7

5.4

10.1

14.6

Enerplus

46,806

358.2

101,000

56%

46,498

312.0

103,500

53%

3%

-8%

-3%

2%

9%

-4%

23%

16%

400.7

(49.7)

75.5

(37.2)

389.3

4.8

6.4

10.0

Freehold *

6,667

24.1

10,687

38%

6,748

20.5

10,169

34%

16%

-5%

-8%

-13%

-5%

-12%

-4%

-9%

na

na

na

na

37.0

na

na

na

Granite

5,602

6.2

6,636

16%

3,690

1.3

3,900

5%

na

-41%

na

2%

na

-7%

na

-51%

39.4

1.1

15.5

(4.1)

17.0

3.8

7.5

12.2

Lightstream

23,007

51.6

31,600

27%

18,149

47.1

27,000

30%

-22%

-18%

-21%

-15%

-21%

-18%

-70%

-53%

199.0

(21.0)

(2.7)

(14.6)

160.7

5.0

7.7

12.1

Northern Blizzard

20,264

5.9

21,800

5%

19,000

6.0

22,500

5%

3%

-6%

0%

-5%

9%

-5%

14%

7%

159.5

0.0

6.4

(7.6)

158.4

7.2

10.1

19.0

Pengrowth

40,764

184.4

72,000

43%

38,513

154.4

73,000

40%

-2%

-10%

-4%

0%

2%

-7%

97%

203%

476.6

(32.6)

112.3

(26.6)

529.7

6.3

11.3

21.2

Penn West

59,550

161.1

91,250

31%

52,591

134.5

90,250

30%

-17%

-13%

-13%

-2%

-16%

-13%

804%

-79%

625.0

(82.6)

32.0

(38.0)

536.4

8.4

12.1

18.9

Peyto

6,629

468.7

86,500

92%

8,750

568.5

103,000

92%

11%

22%

10%

18%

13%

28%

13%

23%

467.8

(0.5)

92.0

(27.8)

531.4

6.7

11.7

17.8

PrairieSky *

6,900

60.5

16,983

59%

10,324

70.3

22,044

53%

5%

30%

-13%

-12%

109%

24%

38%

19%

na

na

na

na

36.0

na

na

na

Surge

13,686

16.4

16,350

17%

10,640

20.2

14,250

24%

-9%

-15%

-28%

0%

-23%

4%

110%

-2%

73.5

17.9

4.6

(6.9)

89.0

6.2

10.7

17.4

TORC

13,522

11.7

15,480

13%

16,225

14.5

18,650

13%

38%

17%

-5%

1%

-13%

24%

-9%

28%

47.1

16.4

8.6

(4.1)

86.6

5.6

8.6

13.3

Trilogy

10,067

107.6

30,000

64%

8,733

100.6

27,500

66%

-20%

-9%

-15%

-9%

-21%

-9%

19%

7%

105.2

(1.3)

45.8

(12.8)

136.9

7.7

10.1

15.0

Twin Butte

15,258

11.7

17,500

11%

14,250

10.5

17,000

11%

-19%

-7%

-19%

-4%

-9%

-7%

-247%

55%

68.2

(0.7)

1.4

(7.8)

61.2

3.1

4.9

8.2

Vermilion

32,774

133.4

55,250

40%

31,597

188.4

65,000

50%

11%

15%

8%

15%

12%

18%

10%

20%

198.6

28.8

37.6

(18.1)

246.9

4.9

8.4

13.6

Whitecap
E&P Total/Average

30,793
618,593

60.0
2,568.7

40,000
1,055,873

25%
33%

30,739
597,920

56.2
2,629.7

44,000
1,112,051

23%
34%

26%
6%

-2%
-3%

2%
-4%

6%
1%

8%
-2%

0%
1%

13%
45%

1%
15%

132.3
5,103.4

101.5
319.8

27.5
743.0

(11.6)
(373.8)

249.7
5,794.4

7.2
6.0

12.0
9.6

16.5
15.0

84.62

27,670

48%

17,073

90.8

32,213

43%

na

12%

na

-13%

na

6%

na

5%

na

na

na

na

73.1

na

na

na

Royalty Total/Average *

Notes: Per share cash flow sensitivities are based on 2014 estimates and include the impact of hedging activity. Reserve Life Index is calculated using estimated year-end 2014 reserves divided by estimated Q4/14 production (adjusted for 2015 acquisitions YTD). Basic payout ratio is defined as cash dividends divided by cash flow from operations. Total payout ratio is defined
as cash dividends plus development capital expenditures divided by each company's cash flow from operations. Total payout ratio (including the DRIP) is defined as cash dividends plus development capital expenditures divided by each company's cash flow from operations plus proceeds from the company's dividend reinvestment program (DRIP). Sustainable payout ratio is
defined as a theoretical payout ratio which would yield flat production and be financially self-sustaining (i.e., fund 100% of capex from cash flow while spending sufficient capital to replace 100% of annual production declines). CFPS: Cash flow per share; CF: Cash flow. R=Restricted. Source: Company reports; CIBC estimates.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

20

Exhibit 19. Dividend Paying E&Ps Key Operating Statistics

Base Pricing Assumptions

Company

Price

$15.45
ARC
$2.36
Baytex
$1.13
Bonavista
$13.20
Bonterra
$6.46
Cardinal
$13.28
Crescent Point
$3.37
Enerplus
$9.62
Freehold *
$6.72
Granite
$0.23
Lightstream
$3.25
Northern Blizzard
$0.78
Pengrowth
$0.86
Penn West
$26.61
Peyto
$19.92
PrairieSky *
$1.62
Surge
$4.14
TORC
$2.41
Trilogy
$0.08
Twin Butte
$33.92
Vermilion
$6.71
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *

Cash Flow from Operations

($ per Share, basic)
Per Share Growth
2016E
2017E
2016E
2017E
$2.00
$2.64
-7.6%
32.0%
$1.88
$3.10
-27.3%
65.3%
$1.55
$2.01
-12.1%
29.1%
$3.26
$5.25
-8.9%
61.2%
$1.07
$2.33
-32.4% 118.2%
$3.23
$4.44
-19.6%
37.4%
$1.76
$2.93
-26.5%
66.4%
$1.01
$1.30
-8.8%
28.8%
$1.08
$1.84
-32.8%
71.1%
$0.22
$0.71
-77.4% 228.3%
$1.35
$1.92
-15.1%
42.0%
$0.70
$0.68
-17.7%
-3.3%
$0.43
$0.99
-8.5%
128.5%
$3.90
$5.33
13.0%
36.5%
$0.86
$1.09
-56.4%
25.8%
$0.32
$0.59
-45.6%
87.2%
$0.81
$1.41
3.8%
74.2%
$0.92
$1.39
8.6%
50.5%
$0.21
$0.43
-58.9% 104.6%
$4.16
$6.00
-8.8%
44.0%
$1.29
$1.81
-24.3%
40.5%
-21.0%
69.1%
-32.6%
27.3%

2017E
CDPS
$1.20
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$0.42
$1.20
$0.36
$0.84
$0.60
$0.00
$0.48
$0.04
$0.00
$1.32
$1.30
$0.15
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$2.58
$0.75

P/CF (x)
2016E
2017E
7.7x
5.8x
1.3x
0.8x
0.7x
0.6x
4.0x
2.5x
6.0x
2.8x
4.1x
3.0x
1.9x
1.2x
8.7x
6.8x
6.2x
3.7x
1.0x
0.3x
2.4x
1.7x
1.1x
1.1x
2.0x
0.9x
6.8x
5.0x
23.1x
18.4x
5.1x
2.7x
5.1x
2.9x
2.6x
1.7x
0.4x
0.2x
8.1x
5.7x
5.2x
3.7x
3.8x
2.4x
15.9x
12.6x

EV/DACF (x)
2015A 2016E 2017E
7.7x
7.3x
6.2x
3.2x
2.9x
2.5x
3.1x
2.9x
2.2x
5.5x
4.4x
3.6x
5.8x
7.0x
3.1x
4.6x
4.5x
4.2x
3.4x
3.3x
2.5x
14.6x
9.6x
7.4x
nm
7.0x
3.8x
4.7x
5.4x
5.7x
3.0x
3.2x
2.3x
3.6x
3.3x
3.8x
4.1x
3.5x
3.8x
8.0x
7.0x
6.1x
23.5x
22.5x
17.9x
3.4x
4.2x
3.5x
7.1x
6.7x
3.7x
5.0x
4.3x
3.6x
1.5x
2.0x
1.6x
8.4x
6.8x
6.5x
5.1x
4.6x
4.7x
4.8x
4.8x
3.9x
19.0x
16.0x
12.6x

Cash Yield
2016E 2017E
7.8%
7.8%
0.0%
0.0%
10.6% 10.6%
9.1%
9.1%
6.5%
6.5%
9.0%
9.0%
10.7% 10.7%
8.7%
8.7%
6.3%
8.9%
0.0%
0.0%
14.8% 14.8%
5.1%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%
5.0%
5.0%
6.5%
6.5%
9.3%
9.3%
13.0% 13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
7.6%
11.2% 11.2%
6.6%
6.8%
7.6%
7.6%

2016E 2017E
CDPS CDPS

P/CF (x)
2016E 2017E

EV/DACF (x)
2015E 2016E 2017E

Cash Yield
2016E 2017E

$1.20
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$0.42
$1.20
$0.36
$0.84
$0.42
$0.00
$0.48
$0.04
$0.00
$1.32
$1.30
$0.15
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$2.58
$0.75

9.1x
1.9x
0.9x
6.9x
8.9x
5.4x
3.3x
14.1x
8.8x
nm
3.0x
1.2x
15.7x
7.8x
28.1x
11.3x
8.0x
3.5x
1.1x
11.6x
8.7x
6.2x
21.1x

7.8x
3.6x
3.1x
5.9x
5.5x
5.0x
3.4x
14.6x
nm
5.0x
3.7x
3.9x
5.9x
8.9x
23.5x
3.6x
6.5x
5.9x
1.6x
9.1x
5.2x
5.2x
19.0x

9.6x
7.4x
4.1x
7.1x
9.7x
8.8x
7.2x
17.6x
7.1x
13.4x
9.8x
10.3x
15.8x
7.5x
25.1x
11.1x
8.1x
7.3x
8.7x
12.1x
12.5x
9.3x
21.3x

7.8%
0.0%
10.6%
9.1%
6.5%
9.0%
10.7%
8.7%
6.3%
0.0%
14.8%
5.1%
0.0%
5.0%
6.5%
9.3%
13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
11.2%
6.6%
7.6%

Forward Strip
2014A 2015E 2016E
$98.84 $52.30 $32.10
$93.03 $48.80 $33.40
$94.62 $57.58 $42.76
$82.32 $44.56 $28.41
$4.35
$2.63
$2.34
$4.47
$2.74
$2.47
$0.91
$0.78
$0.69

2017E
$38.00
$38.40
$49.36
$34.02
$2.70
$2.92
$0.69

2016E
CDPS
$1.20
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$0.42
$1.20
$0.36
$0.84
$0.42
$0.00
$0.48
$0.04
$0.00
$1.32
$1.30
$0.15
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$2.58
$0.75

Payout Ratios

Net Asset Value (NAV)

Risked
P/Core
P/Risked
NAV ($)
NAV
NAV
$26.92
205%
57%
$23.60
29%
10%
$9.26
47%
12%
$38.40
101%
34%
$12.26
61%
53%
$34.57
94%
38%
$13.40
46%
25%
na
136%
na
$5.57
145%
121%
$1.70
38%
13%
$15.03
28%
22%
$4.17
31%
19%
$5.27
79%
16%
$33.54
279%
79%
na
115%
na
$5.02
38%
32%
$6.99
85%
59%
$11.17
78%
22%
$1.33
7%
6%
$57.82
73%
59%
$15.84
105%
42%
83%
38%
125%
na

Basic
2016E
2017E
60%
45%
0%
0%
7%
6%
37%
23%
38%
17%
37%
27%
20%
12%
83%
65%
38%
32%
0%
0%
35%
25%
6%
6%
0%
0%
34%
25%
150%
120%
48%
25%
66%
38%
0%
0%
0%
0%
62%
43%
58%
41%
29%
19%
117%
92%

Net Asset Value (NAV)

Core
Risked P/Core P/Risked
NAV ($) NAV ($)
NAV
NAV

Basic
2016E 2017E
71%
0%
9%
62%
56%
49%
35%
123%
54%
0%
44%
6%
0%
39%
183%
105%
103%
0%
0%
89%
97%
43%
153%

Core
NAV ($)
$7.53
$8.23
$2.40
$13.06
$10.65
$14.11
$7.38
$7.10
$4.63
$0.59
$11.69
$2.54
$1.08
$9.53
$17.36
$4.22
$4.87
$3.09
$1.20
$46.70
$6.42

Total
Debt/CF
2016E 2017E
1.4x
0.9x
4.2x
2.1x
3.0x
1.9x
3.0x
1.4x
0.4x
0.5x
2.4x
1.6x
3.0x
1.6x
1.3x
0.7x
1.4x
0.3x
34.0x
10.2x
2.2x
0.9x
4.0x
3.8x
9.2x
3.8x
2.0x
1.5x
-0.9x
-0.7x
2.4x
1.0x
1.4x
1.1x
4.4x
2.5x
3.8x
1.5x
2.9x
1.7x
2.1x
1.3x
4.6x
2.1x
0.2x
0.0x

Total
(incl. DRIP)
2016E
2017E
100%
86%
115%
61%
112%
63%
88%
52%
69%
38%
119%
80%
154%
79%
86%
70%
101%
63%
71%
81%
80%
57%
82%
66%
83%
81%
121%
101%
129%
103%
120%
68%
108%
85%
83%
70%
101%
65%
103%
80%
82%
78%
100%
71%
108%
87%

2015A
1.2x
3.4x
2.9x
3.0x
0.4x
2.1x
2.5x
1.5x
0.6x
8.1x
2.2x
3.8x
8.0x
1.9x
-1.3x
1.2x
1.7x
5.2x
1.5x
2.8x
1.7x
2.9x
0.1x

Total
2016E 2017E

Total
(incl. DRIP)
2016E 2017E

Total
Bank Line
Debt/CF
Drawn (%)
2015A 2016E 2017E Current

164%
136%
91%
125%
107%
130%
199%
145%
142%
nm
122%
50%
1181%
153%
183%
263%
208%
116%
327%
174%
162%
214%
164%

125%
136%
91%
125%
99%
130%
199%
127%
142%
nm
93%
50%
1181%
153%
158%
263%
152%
116%
327%
117%
162%
203%
142%

Total
2016E
2017E
138%
103%
92%
61%
73%
63%
74%
52%
73%
39%
98%
80%
117%
79%
98%
80%
101%
63%
209%
81%
100%
68%
45%
66%
150%
81%
133%
101%
150%
120%
119%
68%
133%
97%
85%
70%
113%
65%
122%
99%
97%
78%
109%
74%
124%
100%

Bank Line
Drawn (%)
Current
0%
17%
40%
79%
35%
61%
14%
58%
25%
47%
0%
8%
13%
54%
0%
33%
41%
53%
94%
64%
65%
39%
29%

1-Yr.
Target
Price
$24.00
$6.50
$3.00
$21.00
$13.00
$23.00
$6.50
$11.50
$7.50
$0.30
$7.25
$1.50
$1.00
$37.00
$25.00
$3.00
$6.50
$5.50
$0.10
$56.00
$14.50

Most Recent Dist./Div.

Expected
Return
63%
175%
176%
68%
108%
82%
104%
28%
18%
33%
138%
97%
16%
44%
32%
94%
70%
128%
25%
73%
127%
86%
30%

($ per Share)
Current Annualized
$0.10
$1.20
$0.00
$0.00
$0.01
$0.12
$0.10
$1.20
$0.04
$0.42
$0.10
$1.20
$0.03
$0.36
$0.14
$1.68
$0.04
$0.42
$0.00
$0.00
$0.04
$0.48
$0.00
$0.04
$0.00
$0.00
$0.11
$1.32
$0.11
$1.30
$0.01
$0.15
$0.05
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.22
$2.58
$0.06
$0.75

Running
Yield
7.8%
0.0%
10.6%
9.1%
6.5%
9.0%
10.7%
17.5%
6.3%
0.0%
14.8%
5.1%
0.0%
5.0%
6.5%
9.3%
13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
11.2%
6.6%
12.0%

Strip Pricing Assumptions

Company
Price
$15.45
ARC
$2.36
Baytex
$1.13
Bonavista
$13.20
Bonterra
$6.46
Cardinal
$13.28
Crescent Point
$3.37
Enerplus
$9.62
Freehold *
$6.72
Granite
$0.23
Lightstream
$3.25
Northern Blizzard
$0.78
Pengrowth
$0.86
Penn West
$26.61
Peyto
$19.92
PrairieSky *
$1.62
Surge
$4.14
TORC
$2.41
Trilogy
$0.08
Twin Butte
$33.92
Vermilion
$6.71
Whitecap
E&P Total/Average
Royalty Total/Average *
Pricing Assumptions:
BRENT (US$/bbl)
WTI (US$/bbl)
Ed. Par (C$/bbl)
WCS Heavy (C$/bbl)
NYMEX (US$/mcf)
Natural Gas (C$/mcf)
F/X (US$/C$)

2014A
$98.84
$93.03
$94.62
$82.32
$4.35
$4.47
$0.91

Cash Flow from Operations

($ per Share, basic) Per Share Growth
2016E
2017E
2016E 2017E
$1.69
$1.26
$1.25
$1.92
$0.72
$2.45
$1.03
$0.68
$0.76
-$0.12
$1.10
$0.63
$0.05
$3.40
$0.71
$0.14
$0.52
$0.68
$0.07
$2.91
$0.77

$1.83
$1.09
$1.27
$2.90
$0.85
$2.13
$1.16
$0.68
$1.08
-$0.01
$0.47
$0.19
$0.09
$4.42
$0.79
$0.20
$0.70
$0.68
$0.09
$3.25
$0.69

-22.6%
-50.6%
-30.0%
-46.8%
-56.2%
-39.3%
-57.2%
-38.4%
-53.6%
-112.5%
-29.0%
-26.4%
-88.6%
-2.8%
-64.2%
-75.5%
-38.5%
-22.1%
-85.7%
-36.4%
-55.0%
-48.9%
nm

8.0%
-14.1%
0.9%
50.8%
16.9%
-13.0%
11.8%
0.0%
41.3%
-93.9%
-57.3%
-69.6%
62.1%
30.0%
11.7%
40.8%
35.8%
0.8%
25.5%
11.7%
-10.2%
4.1%
5.9%

CIBC Base Assumptions

2015E
2016E
2017E
$52.33
$45.75
$68.00
$48.71
$45.00
$65.00
$57.29
$56.94
$78.67
$45.21
$43.13
$68.47
$2.61
$2.60
$3.25
$2.70
$2.78
$3.40
$0.78
$0.72
$0.75

LT
$78.00
$75.00
$86.25
$75.94
$3.50
$3.13
$0.80

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

$1.20
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$0.42
$1.20
$0.36
$0.84
$0.60
$0.00
$0.48
$0.04
$0.00
$1.32
$1.30
$0.15
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$2.58
$0.75

BRENT (US$/bbl)
WTI (US$/bbl)
Ed. Par (C$/bbl)
WCS Heavy (C$/bbl)
NYMEX (US$/mcf)
Natural Gas (C$/mcf)
F/X (US$/C$)

8.5x
2.2x
0.9x
4.5x
7.6x
6.2x
2.9x
14.1x
6.2x
nm
6.9x
4.1x
9.7x
6.0x
25.1x
8.0x
5.9x
3.5x
0.9x
10.4x
9.7x
5.5x
19.6x

2013A
$108.82
$97.96
$93.46
$75.33
$3.72
$3.18
$0.97

10.1x
6.3x
4.2x
10.2x
10.3x
7.6x
7.2x
14.0x
9.9x
12.5x
4.9x
4.5x
18.1x
9.4x
27.6x
14.2x
10.3x
7.2x
9.0x
13.2x
10.9x
9.5x
20.8x

7.8%
0.0%
10.6%
9.1%
6.5%
9.0%
10.7%
8.7%
8.9%
0.0%
14.8%
5.1%
0.0%
5.0%
6.5%
9.3%
13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
11.2%
6.8%
7.6%

-$0.08
-$6.34
-$1.39
-$4.63
$4.29
-$1.09
-$1.39
$4.55
$0.95
-$6.24
-$1.24
-$2.60
-$6.27
$2.27
$16.55
$0.26
$2.44
-$0.39
-$0.40
$19.14
$0.98

$10.99
$3.72
$5.34
$14.34
$4.95
$13.72
$3.08
na
$1.16
-$5.09
$2.30
-$1.09
-$3.86
$29.31
na
$1.14
$3.57
$6.93
-$0.18
$34.77
$9.92

nm
nm
nm
nm
151%
nm
nm
211%
705%
nm
nm
nm
nm
1175%
120%
633%
170%
nm
nm
177%
687%
528%
na

141%
63%
21%
92%
130%
97%
109%
na
nm
nm
141%
nm
nm
91%
na
142%
116%
35%
nm
98%
68%
96%
na

Payout Ratios

66%
0%
9%
41%
48%
56%
31%
154%
54%
0%
102%
21%
0%
30%
164%
75%
76%
0%
0%
79%
108%
42%
159%

149%
173%
99%
93%
109%
167%
199%
190%
108%
nm
277%
236%
896%
122%
164%
198%
193%
143%
305%
183%
205%
203%
177%

Notes: R=Restricted. Source: Bloomberg; Company Reports; CIBC World Markets

116%
173%
99%
93%
102%
167%
199%
167%
108%
nm
157%
236%
896%
122%
141%
198%
152%
143%
305%
127%
205%
189%
154%

1.2x
3.4x
2.9x
2.9x
1.4x
2.1x
2.4x
1.5x
0.6x
8.0x
2.3x
3.8x
7.8x
1.8x
-1.3x
1.2x
2.1x
5.0x
1.5x
2.8x
1.7x
2.9x
0.1x

1.9x
6.8x
3.9x
5.7x
2.9x
3.5x
5.8x
2.4x
2.2x
nm
2.9x
4.6x
nm
2.4x
-0.9x
6.5x
4.0x
6.3x
12.9x
4.5x
4.2x
4.8x
0.8x

1.9x
8.5x
3.7x
3.7x
3.4x
4.7x
6.1x
3.7x
1.5x
nm
7.5x
16.3x
56.7x
2.1x
-0.4x
5.6x
3.5x
6.4x
12.3x
4.3x
5.7x
8.1x
1.7x

0%
17%
40%
79%
35%
61%
14%
58%
25%
47%
0%
8%
13%
54%
0%
33%
41%
53%
94%
64%
65%
39%
29%

Most Recent Dist./Div.

Target
Price
$24.00
$6.50
$3.00
$21.00
$13.00
$23.00
$6.50
$11.50
$7.50
$0.30
$7.25
$1.50
$1.00
$37.00
$25.00
$3.00
$6.50
$5.50
$0.10
$56.00
$14.50

($ per Share)
Expected
Running
Return Current Annualized Yield
63%
175%
176%
68%
108%
82%
104%
28%
18%
33%
138%
97%
16%
44%
32%
94%
70%
128%
25%
73%
127%
86%
30%

$0.10
$0.00
$0.01
$0.10
$0.04
$0.10
$0.03
$0.14
$0.04
$0.00
$0.04
$0.00
$0.00
$0.11
$0.11
$0.01
$0.05
$0.00
$0.00
$0.22
$0.06

$1.20
$0.00
$0.12
$1.20
$0.42
$1.20
$0.36
$1.68
$0.42
$0.00
$0.48
$0.04
$0.00
$1.32
$1.30
$0.15
$0.54
$0.00
$0.00
$2.58
$0.75

7.8%
0.0%
10.6%
9.1%
6.5%
9.0%
10.7%
17.5%
6.3%
0.0%
14.8%
5.1%
0.0%
5.0%
6.5%
9.3%
13.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
11.2%
6.6%
12.0%

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 20. Dividend Paying E&Ps Base vs Forward Strip Pricing Assumptions

21

CIBC Base Price Case

5
Share
O/S1

Company

Net Bank
1
Mkt. Cap. Debt

11

13

Other
Debt1

Enterprise
Value

15

16

18

22

CFPS2

24

26

28

P/CF

30

32

EV/DACF

34

35

37

39

Development Capex ($MM)

40

42

44

Total Payout (%)

46

48

50

D/CF

Ticker

Price

(MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Advantage Oil & Gas

AAV

Bellatrix Exploration

BXE

$6.86
$1.30
$3.26
$0.26
$3.36
$1.15
$3.39
$0.31
$2.94

170.7
192.0
152.3
211.0
141.1
43.1
168.6
318.5
153.3

$1,171
$250
$497
$54
$474
$50
$572
$97
$451

$298
$403
$632
-$6
$106
$108
$96
$604
$204

$0
$321
$0
$60
$150
$0
$0
$75
$0

$1,469
$973
$1,129
$107
$730
$158
$668
$776
$654

$0.71
$0.52
$1.05
$0.12
$0.49
$1.14
$0.35
$0.69
$0.82

$1.02
$0.64
$1.23
$0.10
$0.59
$0.86
$0.44
$0.22
$0.81

$1.36
$0.97
$1.98
$0.18
$0.90
$1.55
$0.92
$0.39
$1.22

9.6x
2.5x
3.1x
2.2x
6.8x
1.0x
9.6x
0.4x
3.6x

6.7x
2.0x
2.6x
2.7x
5.7x
1.3x
7.8x
1.4x
3.6x

5.0x
1.3x
1.6x
1.4x
3.7x
0.7x
3.7x
0.8x
2.4x

11.1x
7.1x
6.2x
3.9x
8.4x
3.0x
11.7x
3.5x
5.2x

7.7x
5.8x
5.4x
5.9x
7.1x
3.5x
9.7x
6.7x
5.3x

5.9x
4.2x
3.6x
4.9x
4.8x
1.7x
5.1x
4.3x
3.9x

$167
$170
$251
$67
$238
$43
$166
$100
$285

$130
$105
$225
$55
$74
$25
$110
$80
$150

$240
$160
$325
$50
$100
$45
$195
$130
$245

137%
170%
155%
270%
340%
125%
278%
68%
227%

74%
85%
119%
268%
88%
130%
149%
119%
121%

103%
86%
107%
126%
78%
67%
125%
100%
131%

2.4x
7.4x
4.0x
2.8x
3.6x
1.9x
3.4x
4.6x
1.9x

1.4x
5.9x
3.6x
5.0x
2.8x
2.1x
3.3x
5.4x
2.1x

1.1x
3.8x
2.4x
4.4x
1.6x
1.1x
1.8x
4.6x
1.8x

20%
74%
56%
50%
35%
69%
14%
87%
31%

$3.13
$4.14
$0.04
$0.85
$7.75
$1.26
$13.39
$2.11
$3.37
$2.27

100.0
106.2
231.7
303.6
212.3
123.8
251.6
264.4
119.4
99.9

$313
$440
$8
$258
$1,646
$156
$3,369
$558
$402
$227

$65
$680
-$7
$148
$104
$130
-$491
$87
$62
$106

$0
$1,115
$310
$0
$0
$0
$1,487
$0
$0
$0

$378
$2,235
$311
$406
$1,749
$286
$4,364
$645
$464
$333

$0.32
$0.75
$0.01
$0.10
$0.83
$0.75
$1.41
$0.23
$0.32
$0.62

$0.63
$1.36
$0.01
$0.14
$0.88
$0.57
$2.45
$0.25
$0.30
$0.57

$1.65
$4.37
$0.05
$0.27
$1.38
$0.92
$3.74
$0.53
$0.59
$1.02

9.7x
5.6x
nm
8.5x
9.3x
1.7x
9.5x
9.2x
10.7x
3.7x

5.0x
3.0x
2.5x
6.1x
8.8x
2.2x
5.5x
8.5x
11.3x
4.0x

1.9x
0.9x
0.6x
3.1x
5.6x
1.4x
3.6x
4.0x
5.7x
2.2x

11.2x
11.9x
6.5x
15.9x
10.6x
2.9x
9.7x
9.4x
11.9x
5.5x

7.8x
8.6x
6.8x
8.5x
9.2x
3.7x
6.3x
8.7x
12.6x
5.7x

4.0x
4.1x
4.9x
3.7x
5.7x
2.3x
4.7x
4.2x
6.9x
3.3x

$107
$490
$85
$2
$170
$95
$1,322
$72
$93
$66

$215
$300
$28
$12
$190
$65
$950
$75
$69
$69

$340
$500
$40
$20
$200
$110
$1,315
$155
$104
$106

333%
618%
nm
9%
104%
103%
353%
109%
252%
117%

343%
208%
555%
28%
101%
92%
145%
105%
191%
120%

206%
108%
198%
24%
68%
97%
131%
101%
145%
103%

2.3x
23.4x
76.3x
6.1x
0.8x
1.4x
3.3x
1.4x
1.7x
2.0x

3.6x
13.9x
41.7x
2.7x
0.7x
1.7x
2.3x
1.4x
2.6x
2.2x

2.4x
4.4x
11.6x
0.6x
0.2x
1.0x
2.0x
0.6x
1.8x
1.3x

$578

$175

$185

$939

5.9x

4.8x

2.6x

8.2x

7.1x

4.3x

$210

$154

$231

209%

160%

111%

7.9x

5.5x

2.6x

Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

Crew Energy

CR

Journey Energy

JOY

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Long Run Exploration

LRE

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Pine Cliff Energy

PNE

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

VII

Spartan Energy

SPE

Storm Resources

SRX

Tamarack Valley

TVE

Group Total/Average

Company

Ticker

Advantage Oil & Gas

AAV

Bellatrix Exploration

BXE

Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

Crew Energy

CR

Journey Energy

JOY

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Long Run Exploration

LRE

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Pine Cliff Energy

PNE

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

VII

Spartan Energy

SPE

Storm Resources

SRX

Tamarack Valley

TVE

Core NAV
P/CNAV7
P+P

Reserves Metrics6
P/URNAV

EV/Boe

Hedging (Avg. 12 Mth Out)

Gas (Mcf/d) Gain / (Loss)

Cash
Yield (%)

% Gas

PPSG Yield (%)

57

12 Month Target
Price

Return

Rating

38%
43%
25%
100%
73%
55%
51%
14%
42%

$9.50
$2.25
$6.00
$0.50
$5.25
$2.00
$5.50
$0.52
$7.00

38%
73%
84%
96%
56%
93%
62%
76%
138%

SO
SP
SO
SU
SO
SP
SP
SP
SO

17%
80%
97%
36%
6%
45%
23%
13%
13%
32%

86%
32%
87%
32%
81%
25%
100%
68%
70%
41%

$5.00
$15.00
$0.25
$1.10
$9.00
$2.00
$17.50
$3.00
$4.00
$3.75

60%
262%
614%
29%
16%
59%
31%
42%
19%
65%

SP
SP
SP
SP
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
SP

42%

56%

$5.22

101%

Operating Netbacks ($/Boe)

Cash Netbacks ($/Boe)

2016E

2017E

$9.05
$3.20
$7.97
$0.86
$5.36
$3.33
$6.16
$0.56
$7.54

76%
41%
41%
30%
63%
35%
55%
55%
39%

$16.19
$6.30
$11.57
$0.95
$11.86
$4.84
$21.55
$1.17
$13.69

42%
21%
28%
27%
28%
24%
16%
26%
21%

$4.89
$3.91
$2.43
$0.91
$3.31
$3.17
$4.59
$4.55
$2.98

37.0
15.9
33.9
31.1
29.0
11.6
17.5
12.8
26.1

0
750
0
0
250
1,000
0
1,625
2,704

90.40
23.36
0.00
19.16
22.70
0.00
7.50
36.98
31.87

37.31
5.45
0.00
6.03
17.45
15.79
1.98
55.73
52.64

23,524
41,389
39,035
9,500
18,566
11,000
18,900
32,775
22,510

32,696
39,750
44,775
10,500
24,000
11,200
22,000
30,000
25,260

38,837
41,000
50,500
11,000
25,000
9,600
24,510
26,000
29,900

43,544
24,719
26,489
14,973
29,689
12,939
36,881
22,714
28,397

36,854
23,486
24,105
20,769
27,381
12,787
34,719
26,387
26,077

99%
71%
86%
83%
64%
47%
64%
59%
70%

98%
72%
87%
84%
73%
44%
64%
60%
68%

97%
72%
87%
84%
74%
45%
64%
60%
67%

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
19%
0%
6%
0%

39%
-4%
15%
11%
29%
19%
16%
-3%
12%

19%
3%
13%
5%
4%
22%
11%
0%
18%

$16.55
$10.75
$14.39
$11.32
$14.81
$17.05
$10.68
$18.39
$18.72

$16.16
$13.34
$14.65
$9.18
$12.86
$15.26
$11.24
$12.26
$16.67

$17.83
$16.99
$19.65
$13.88
$17.37
$22.89
$19.47
$19.04
$20.32

$14.20
$6.63
$11.36
$7.15
$10.31
$13.13
$8.66
$13.23
$15.29

$14.60
$8.53
$11.58
$5.35
$9.58
$11.01
$9.15
$7.08
$13.44

$16.44
$12.47
$16.50
$9.85
$14.03
$19.17
$17.38
$13.63
$17.10

$3.53
$20.86
$0.35
$0.92
$6.48
$1.15
$16.33
$3.01
$1.72
$4.25

89%
20%
10%
93%
120%
110%
82%
70%
196%
53%

$5.05
$25.90
$0.42
$0.77
$7.85
$2.08
$17.50
$3.18
$1.90
$7.17

62%
16%
8%
111%
99%
61%
77%
66%
178%
32%

$20.02
$58.46
$0.52
$0.95
$12.55
$3.22
$24.89
$4.44
$2.67
$11.76

16%
7%
7%
90%
62%
39%
54%
47%
126%
19%

$0.77
$6.44
$3.83
$3.57
$22.91
$6.81
$5.53
$16.28
$5.35
$10.01

98.2
27.7
12.2
8.0
13.9
9.3
90.3
12.3
23.8
11.9

0
3,750
1,625
0
188
0
6,250
0
250
2,533

52.15
0.00
64.81
0.00
0.24
4.74
60.00
0.00
34.28
4.50

9.50
32.01
7.10
0.00
2.38
2.46
89.60
0.00
9.94
22.99

15,655
45,000
19,500
12,745
13,600
12,100
60,330
8,789
9,898
8,280

23,000
55,635
18,015
22,960
17,000
10,750
103,500
9,106
15,387
8,931

42,800 24,795 23,503

66,770 50,907 44,046
17,500 11,092 12,115
23,379 31,706 16,271
17,625 131,253 105,097
11,500 23,431 25,858
127,025 76,193 47,457
11,322 74,122 71,898
18,150 46,863 32,289
10,862 41,219 39,512

16,723
37,289
13,830
13,299
96,075
23,889
41,983
57,959
29,163
32,788

94%
61%
89%
94%
3%
54%
41%
5%
82%
40%

91%
57%
93%
92%
9%
57%
43%
5%
83%
41%

91%
54%
93%
92%
9%
57%
45%
5%
83%
41%

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

47%
24%
-42%
42%
16%
-11%
72%
4%
51%
-2%

87%
20%
-3%
2%
4%
7%
23%
24%
18%
22%

$7.43
$12.85
$8.48
$6.86
$35.05
$23.55
$22.61
$23.73
$12.25
$23.32

$9.47
$15.32
$8.56
$6.43
$32.69
$20.85
$20.34
$24.70
$8.00
$21.32

$12.81
$26.18
$11.22
$11.27
$48.66
$29.69
$24.95
$40.25
$12.41
$29.51

$5.62
$4.82
$0.38
$5.14
$33.09
$20.97
$17.02
$20.59
$10.17
$18.73

$7.44
$7.09
$0.76
$5.06
$30.27
$17.93
$17.35
$21.53
$6.40
$17.41

$10.55
$19.07
$3.17
$9.66
$45.60
$26.98
$21.68
$37.14
$10.80
$25.79

37%

$5.91

27.5

41,325

31,346

63%

64%

64%

1%

18%

16%

$16.25

$15.23

$21.81

$12.45

$11.66

$18.26

60%

Oil (Boe/d)

Production EV/Boe/d9

55

108%
46%
39%
-248%
152%
36%
149%
107%
44%

67%

RLI

Production Volumes (Boe/d)

Debt/EV Bank Line

54

$6.38
$2.80
$8.45
-$0.10
$2.21
$3.22
$2.27
$0.28
$6.72

Average

Risked

Upside NAV
P/RNAV7 Unrisked

52
Current
Unutilized

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

16E/15E

17E/16E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

62,369
23,868
29,231
12,959
38,926
14,289
41,010
20,403
30,544

34,652

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.

acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital, as of Q1 2015

5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.

9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).

2. Cash flow per diluted share.

6. Based on 2P adjusted for acquisitions and dispositions. RLI based on Q4/14E production.

3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

22

Exhibit 21. Junior E&Ps - Comparables

Forward Strip Case

5
Share
O/S1

Company

Net Bank
1
Mkt. Cap. Debt

11

13

Other
Debt1

Enterprise
Value

15

16

18

22

CFPS

24

26

28

P/CF

30

32

EV/DACF

34

35

37

39

Development Capex ($MM)

40

42

44

Total Payout (%)

46

48

50

52

54

55

57

Current
Unutilized 12 Month Target

D/CF

Ticker

Price

(MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Price

Return Rating

Advantage Oil & Gas

AAV

Bellatrix Exploration

BXE

$6.86
$1.30
$3.26
$0.26
$3.36
$1.15
$3.39
$0.31
$2.94

170.7
192.0
152.3
211.0
141.1
43.1
168.6
318.5
153.3

$1,171
$250
$497
$54
$474
$50
$572
$97
$451

$298
$403
$632
-$6
$106
$108
$96
$604
$204

$0
$321
$0
$60
$150
$0
$0
$75
$0

$1,469
$973
$1,129
$107
$730
$158
$668
$776
$654

$0.71
$0.57
$1.08
$0.12
$0.51
$1.21
$0.38
$0.72
$0.85

$0.92
$0.49
$0.89
$0.05
$0.45
$0.47
$0.24
$0.12
$0.73

$1.08
$0.55
$1.30
$0.08
$0.45
$0.59
$0.46
$0.13
$0.72

9.6x
2.3x
3.0x
2.1x
6.6x
1.0x
8.9x
0.4x
3.5x

7.5x
2.6x
3.7x
5.5x
7.5x
2.4x
14.0x
2.5x
4.0x

6.3x
2.4x
2.5x
3.0x
7.5x
2.0x
7.4x
2.3x
4.1x

11.1x
6.7x
6.0x
3.8x
8.2x
2.8x
10.8x
3.3x
5.0x

8.6x
7.0x
7.4x
10.3x
9.2x
6.3x
16.4x
10.1x
5.9x

7.6x
6.8x
5.7x
9.9x
9.5x
5.8x
10.4x
10.3x
6.8x

$167
$170
$251
$67
$238
$43
$166
$100
$285

$130
$105
$225
$55
$74
$25
$110
$80
$150

$240
$160
$325
$50
$100
$45
$195
$130
$245

137%
157%
151%
262%
329%
101%
257%
64%
219%

82%
111%
165%
nm
116%
122%
269%
200%
133%

129%
152%
162%
278%
157%
177%
251%
294%
222%

2.4x
6.7x
3.9x
2.7x
3.4x
2.0x
3.1x
3.4x
1.8x

1.7x
7.8x
5.4x
nm
4.0x
5.3x
6.6x
nm
2.4x

1.7x
7.6x
4.4x
nm
4.6x
5.0x
5.0x
nm
3.7x

20%
74%
56%
50%
35%
69%
14%
87%
31%

38%
43%
25%
100%
73%
55%
51%
14%
42%

$9.50
$2.25
$6.00
$0.50
$5.25
$2.00
$5.50
$0.52
$7.00

38%
73%
84%
96%
56%
93%
62%
76%
138%

SO
SP
SO
SU
SO
SP
SP
SP
SO

$3.13
$4.14
$0.04
$0.85
$7.75
$1.26
$13.39
$2.11
$3.37
$2.27

100.0
106.2
231.7
303.6
212.3
123.8
251.6
264.4
119.4
99.9

$313
$440
$8
$258
$1,646
$156
$3,369
$558
$402
$227

$65
$680
-$7
$148
$104
$130
-$491
$87
$60
$106

$0
$1,115
$310
$0
$0
$0
$1,487
$0
$0
$0

$378
$2,235
$311
$406
$1,749
$286
$4,364
$645
$463
$333

$0.33
$0.90
$0.02
$0.10
$0.88
$0.78
$1.48
$0.25
$0.33
$0.66

$0.45
$0.50
-$0.06
$0.07
$0.65
$0.42
$1.99
$0.15
$0.16
$0.42

$1.04
$1.48
-$0.03
$0.15
$0.83
$0.57
$2.40
$0.25
$0.24
$0.46

9.6x
4.6x
nm
8.3x
8.8x
1.6x
9.0x
8.5x
10.3x
3.4x

6.9x
8.2x
-0.6x
13.1x
12.0x
3.0x
6.7x
13.9x
20.9x
5.4x

3.0x
2.8x
-1.1x
5.7x
9.4x
2.2x
5.6x
8.4x
13.8x
4.9x

11.0x
10.9x
6.1x
15.4x
10.0x
2.8x
9.3x
8.6x
11.5x
5.2x

10.7x
13.0x
37.1x
18.6x
12.8x
5.1x
7.6x
14.1x
22.2x
7.7x

6.5x
9.2x
15.6x
8.0x
10.1x
4.3x
7.5x
9.6x
16.4x
7.9x

$107
$490
$85
$2
$170
$95
$1,322
$72
$93
$66

$215
$300
$28
$12
$190
$65
$950
$75
$69
$69

$340
$500
$40
$20
$200
$110
$1,315
$155
$104
$106

328%
nm
nm
9%
98%
99%
335%
100%
243%
110%

476%
nm
nm
61%
138%
125%
177%
171%
355%
164%

327%
318%
nm
44%
114%
157%
204%
214%
354%
229%

2.3x
nm
nm
5.9x
0.7x
1.3x
3.1x
1.2x
1.6x
1.8x

5.4x
nm
nm
7.0x
1.3x
2.6x
3.0x
2.7x
5.6x
3.3x

4.6x
nm
nm
2.5x
1.2x
2.5x
3.8x
2.8x
6.3x
4.3x

17%
80%
97%
36%
6%
45%
23%
13%
13%
32%

86%
32%
87%
32%
81%
25%
100%
68%
70%
41%

$5.00
$15.00
$0.25
$1.10
$9.00
$2.00
$17.50
$3.00
$4.00
$3.25

60%
262%
614%
29%
16%
59%
31%
42%
19%
43%

SP
SP
SP
SP
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
SP

$578

$175

$185

$939

5.6x

7.3x

4.9x

7.8x

12.1x

8.8x

$210

$154

$231

176%

179%

210%

2.8x

4.3x

4.0x

42%

56%

Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

Crew Energy

CR

Journey Energy

JOY

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Long Run Exploration

LRE

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Pine Cliff Energy

PNE

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

VII

Spartan Energy

SPE

Storm Resources

SRX

Tamarack Valley

TVE

Group Total/Average

Company

Core NAV
P/CNAV7

P+P

Advantage Oil & Gas

AAV

Bellatrix Exploration

BXE

$6.42
$2.01
$8.81
$0.41
$0.54
-$0.38
$0.54
-$0.58
$3.54

107%
65%
37%
62%
nm
nm
nm
nm
83%

$8.38
$2.27
$10.82
$1.07
$3.63
($0.23)
$3.80
-$0.45
$3.83

82%
57%
30%
24%
93%
-500%
89%
-68%
77%

$5.82
$9.91
$0.30
$0.45
$3.76
$0.19
$8.65
$1.33
$0.60
$0.81

54%
42%
12%
188%
206%
nm
155%
158%
nm
279%

$7.11
$12.62
$0.34
$0.50
$4.54
$0.35
$10.86
$1.34
$0.76
$2.02

44%
33%
10%
170%
171%
364%
123%
157%
445%
112%

Birchcliff Energy

BIR

Cequence Energy

CQE

Crew Energy

CR

Journey Energy

JOY

Kelt Exploration

KEL

Long Run Exploration

LRE

NuVista Energy

NVA

Painted Pony Petroleum

PPY

Paramount Resources

POU

Perpetual Energy

PMT

Pine Cliff Energy

PNE

Raging River Exploration

RRX

RMP Energy

RMP

Seven Generations

VII

Spartan Energy

SPE

Storm Resources

SRX

Tamarack Valley

TVE

Average

Risked

Upside NAV
P/RNAV7 Unrisked

Ticker

111%

80%

Reserves Metrics6

Hedging (Avg. 12 Mth Out)

P/URNAV7

EV/Boe8

RLI

Oil (Boe/d)

$14.53
$5.12
$16.22
$1.15
$10.17
$0.37
$13.69
-$0.20
$7.23

47%
25%
20%
22%
33%
311%
25%
-150%
41%

$4.89
$3.91
$2.43
$0.91
$3.31
$3.17
$4.59
$4.55
$2.98

37.0
15.9
33.9
31.1
29.0
11.6
17.5
12.8
26.1

0
750
0
0
250
1,000
0
1,625
2,704

90.40
23.36
0.00
19.16
22.70
0.00
7.50
36.98
31.87

$29.84
$31.23
$0.49
$0.59
$6.66
$0.53
$14.62
$1.88
$1.32
$3.51

10%
13%
7%
144%
116%
240%
92%
112%
256%
65%

$0.77
$6.44
$3.83
$3.57
$22.91
$6.81
$5.53
$16.28
$5.34
$10.01

98.2
27.7
12.2
8.0
13.9
9.3
90.3
12.3
23.8
11.9

0
3,750
1,625
0
188
0
6,250
0
250
2,533

52.15
0.00
64.81
0.00
0.24
4.74
60.00
0.00
34.28
4.50

75%

$5.91

27.5

Gas (Mcf/d) Gain / (Loss)

Production Volumes (Boe/d)

Production EV/Boe/d9

Cash
Yield (%)

% Gas

PPSG Yield (%)

Debt/EV Bank Line

Operating Netbacks ($/Boe)

$5.19

Cash Netbacks ($/Boe)

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

16E/15E

17E/16E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

40.33
11.64
0.00
6.30
18.70
16.56
1.95
57.51
58.28

23,524
41,389
39,035
9,500
18,566
10,286
18,900
32,550
22,510

32,696
39,750
44,775
10,500
24,000
9,250
22,000
27,495
25,260

38,837
41,000
50,500
11,000
25,000
9,600
24,510
26,000
29,900

62,361
23,668
29,118
12,878
38,798
14,973
40,755
20,337
30,352

44,051
24,896
27,588
15,906
30,436
17,136
38,156
25,673
28,689

38,516
25,675
27,133
23,619
30,677
18,547
39,036
30,602
28,865

99%
71%
86%
83%
64%
47%
64%
59%
70%

98%
72%
87%
84%
73%
44%
64%
60%
68%

97%
72%
87%
84%
74%
45%
64%
60%
67%

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
19%
0%
6%
0%

39%
-4%
15%
11%
29%
9%
16%
-10%
12%

19%
3%
13%
5%
4%
22%
11%
0%
18%

$16.57
$11.29
$14.70
$11.54
$15.16
$17.89
$11.37
$18.95
$19.24

$14.77
$11.35
$11.41
$6.46
$10.55
$10.33
$7.19
$9.16
$15.39

$14.56
$11.84
$14.29
$8.77
$10.61
$11.49
$11.15
$10.42
$13.57

$14.23
$7.18
$11.67
$7.37
$10.66
$13.97
$9.36
$13.80
$15.81

$13.20 $13.07
$6.53
$7.04
$8.31 $10.87
$2.60
$4.49
$7.27
$6.96
$6.06
$7.26
$5.07
$8.68
$3.98
$4.66
$12.17 $10.13

11.62
34.85
4.37
0.00
2.37
2.46
93.61
0.00
10.81
24.26

15,655
45,000
19,500
12,745
13,600
12,100
60,330
8,789
9,898
8,280

23,000
55,635
18,015
22,960
17,000
10,750
103,500
9,106
15,387
8,931

42,800
66,770
17,500
23,379
17,625
11,500
127,025
11,322
18,150
10,862

24,760
50,552
10,992
31,648
130,517
23,140
75,868
73,456
46,731
40,777

24,237
45,394
13,445
17,230
107,478
27,267
48,228
74,316
33,283
40,799

18,541
43,020
17,034
15,848
105,030
28,959
45,967
67,067
32,326
39,021

94%
61%
89%
94%
3%
54%
41%
5%
82%
40%

91%
57%
93%
92%
9%
57%
43%
5%
83%
41%

91%
54%
93%
92%
9%
57%
45%
5%
83%
41%

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

47%
24%
-42%
42%
16%
-11%
72%
4%
51%
-2%

87%
20%
-3%
2%
4%
7%
23%
24%
18%
22%

$7.52
$13.82
$8.75
$7.01
$37.06
$24.34
$23.51
$25.54
$12.62
$24.52

$7.41
$10.92
$4.77
$3.73
$24.30
$16.13
$17.01
$16.37
$5.08
$16.68

$9.07
$14.19
$7.03
$6.93
$29.68
$19.81
$17.08
$21.25
$6.29
$15.84

$5.71
$5.80
$0.66
$5.30
$35.11
$21.77
$17.91
$22.42
$10.53
$19.95

$5.37
$2.62
-$3.17
$2.35
$22.16
$13.18
$14.14
$13.17
$3.45
$12.78

$6.65
$6.44
-$1.86
$5.27
$27.36
$16.70
$13.88
$17.52
$4.44
$11.61

41,141

36,011

35,552

63%

64%

64%

nm

17%

16%

$16.92

$11.53

$13.36

$13.12

$7.96

$9.54

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.

acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital, as of Q1 2015

5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.

9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).

2. Cash flow per diluted share.

6. Based on 2P adjusted for acquisitions and dispositions. RLI based on Q4/14E production.

3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

100%

2016E

2017E

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 22. Junior E&Ps Comparables (continued)

23

CIBC Base Price Case

Company

Bankers Petroleum Ltd.

Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Oryx Petroleum

Pacific Exploration & Production

Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

Share
O/S 1.

Cash

Mkt. Cap.

Net Bank
Debt1

Other
Debt1

Enterprise
Value

Funds Flow ($MM)

Debt/Cash Flow

12 Month Target

Yield (%)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

Price

Return 4.

Rating 5.

BNK
CNE
GTE
OXC
PRE
PXT
TGL

$0.76
$2.23
$2.88
$0.50
$0.48
$8.40
$1.83

261.4
158.5
283.4
121.3
313.3
150.2
72.2

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.0%

$199
$353
$816
$61
$150
$1,262
$132

-$75
$170
-$191
$52
$5,184
-$63
-$170

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$69

$103
$571
$572
$127
$6,780
$1,182
$4

$1.07
$0.84
$1.08
n.a.
$6.41
$2.39
$1.46

$0.61
$0.54
$0.41
-$0.16
$2.14
$0.96
$0.07

$0.17
$0.57
$0.70
-$0.04
$3.77
$1.56
$0.54

$0.08
$1.00
$0.98
$0.33
$4.42
$1.99
$0.88

0.3x
3.5x
1.6x
n.a.
2.0x
3.3x
-0.3x

0.4x
4.9x
4.0x
n.a.
4.3x
6.0x
0.6x

2.5x
4.4x
2.4x
n.a.
2.6x
3.2x
0.3x

6.8x
2.6x
1.6x
4.4x
2.1x
2.6x
0.1x

$291
$133
$420
n.a.
$2,395
$297
$108

$149
$189
$152
$122
$765
$137
$45

$68
$121
$180
$90
$775
$200
$40

$140
$168
$255
$99
$800
$280
$50

$284
$76
$311
n.a.
$2,021
$293
$120

$160
$60
$116
-$20
$669
$142
$5

$45
$84
$207
-$4
$1,180
$246
$39

$20
$159
$291
$41
$1,385
$299
$63

-0.4x
1.0x
-0.8x
n.a.
2.4x
0.1x
-1.3x

-0.5x
3.4x
-1.6x
0.7x
7.8x
-0.5x
-18.7x

-0.2x
2.2x
-0.7x
-17.9x
4.1x
-0.5x
-2.3x

5.7x
1.2x
-0.6x
5.2x
3.0x
-0.5x
-1.5x

$3.25
$4.50
$4.25
$3.00
$2.50
$13.50
$4.50

328%
102%
48%
500%
421%
61%
153%

SP
SO
SP
SO-S
SU
SO
SP

$2,973

$4,908

$69

$9,338

1.7x

3.4x

2.6x

2.9x

$3,644

$1,560

$1,474

$1,792

$3,106

$1,131

$1,798

$2,258

0.2x

-1.3x

-2.2x

1.8x

Risked

Group Total/Average

Development Capex ($MM)

(MM)

Core NAV
Bankers Petroleum Ltd.
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Oryx Petroleum
Pacific Exploration & Production
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

EV/DACF 3.

Price

Group Total/Average

Company

CFPS 2

Symbol

Exploration NAV

Reserves 6.
EV/Boe 8.

Reserves 6.

Production

Reserve Life Index

Volumes (Boe/d)

Production
EV/Boe/d 9.

% Gas

230%

PPSG +

Operating

Cash Flow

Yield (%)

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Symbol

P+P

P/NAV

RENAV

P/RENAV

Proven

P+P

Proven

P+P

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

14E/13A

15E/14E

16E/15E

17E/16E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

BNK
CNE
GTE
OXC
PRE
PXT
TGL

$4.15
$3.00
$4.07
$3.10
-$3.11
$8.57
$4.67

18%
74%
71%
16%
n.m.
98%
39%

$4.28
$4.54
$4.85
$10.52
$0.70
$12.25
$4.82

18%
49%
59%
5%
n.m.
69%
38%

$0.82
$11.10
$10.47
$1.25
$19.72
$29.85
$0.11

$0.51
$7.16
$4.32
$0.47
$12.26
$17.76
$0.08

22.1
12.7
5.4
n.a.
5.2
4.8
4.4

28.4
19.8
12.6
n.a.
8.0
8.1
5.7

20,690
10,577
25,182
951
176,238
22,535
16,103

19,385
11,504
23,538
2,376
175,065
27,400
14,584

16,547
14,414
28,407
6,274
147,168
30,886
13,218

16,198
19,234
31,222
10,000
123,736
32,455
12,833

0%
30%
1%
0%
5%
0%
0%

0%
58%
1%
0%
7%
0%
0%

4,027
30,977
22,212
5,267
31,081
51,763
(2,464)

4,870
47,206
24,741
17,988
38,753
42,645
583

11,378
41,081
23,139
26,437
43,499
35,815
1,309

21,335
31,388
19,533
33,498
45,559
33,332
750

12%
30%
-14%
n.a.
18%
26%
-13%

-7%
-3%
-7%
133%
6%
10%
-8%

-14%
0%
17%
164%
-14%
13%
-8%

-2%
33%
9%
59%
-15%
5%
-3%

$45.07
$34.84
$49.66
$5.04
$53.18
$50.19
$35.33

$26.64
$26.77
$20.17
-$2.96
$25.41
$24.97
$8.70

$12.71
$26.32
$26.56
$8.55
$35.00
$29.10
$11.81

$10.21
$32.39
$34.93
$16.76
$45.30
$37.82
$16.60

$41.32
$10.57
$32.86
$5.02
$37.24
$33.73
$19.13

$21.86
$5.96
$13.53
-$21.20
$15.80
$15.23
-$0.08

$7.47
$14.30
$19.98
-$1.96
$24.46
$21.81
$8.00

$3.31
$22.46
$25.56
$11.13
$30.40
$25.21
$13.46

40%

$10.48

$6.08

9.1

13.8

5%

9%

20,409

25,255

26,094

26,485

10%

18%

23%

13%

$39.05

$18.53

$21.44

$27.72

$25.70

$7.30

$13.44

$18.79

53%

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent
acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital.
2. Cash flow per diluted share.
3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.
5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.
9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
6. PDP: Proved developed producing reserves; Proved: Proved reserves; P+P: Proved plus Probable reserves.
10. Enterprise value in $CAD per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

24

Exhibit 23. International E&Ps Comparables

Forward Strip Case

Company

Bankers Petroleum Ltd.

Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Oryx Petroleum

Pacific Exploration & Production

Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

Share
O/S 1.

Cash

Mkt. Cap.

Net Bank
Debt1

Other
Debt1

Enterprise
Value

Funds Flow ($MM)

Debt/Cash Flow

12 Month Target

Yield (%)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

($MM)

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

Price

Return 4.

Rating 5.

BNK
CNE
GTE
OXC
PRE
PXT
TGL

$0.76
$2.23
$2.88
$0.50
$0.48
$8.40
$1.83

261.4
158.5
283.4
121.3
313.3
150.2
72.2

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.0%

$199
$353
$816
$61
$150
$1,262
$132

-$75
$173
-$191
$52
$5,184
-$63
-$170

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$69

$103
$574
$572
$127
$6,778
$1,182
$4

$1.07
$0.84
$1.08
n.a.
$6.41
$2.39
$1.46

$0.61
$0.54
$0.37
-$0.17
$1.99
$0.94
$0.00

$0.13
$0.48
$0.23
-$0.30
$0.12
$0.32
-$0.50

($0.02)
$0.88
$0.37
-$0.17
$0.51
$0.46
-$0.18

0.3x
3.5x
1.6x
n.a.
2.0x
3.3x
-0.3x

0.4x
4.9x
4.4x
n.a.
4.5x
6.1x
1.9x

3.0x
4.8x
7.8x
n.a.
12.4x
13.7x
n.m.

18.2x
2.9x
6.0x
n.m.
9.7x
12.1x
-22.2x

$291
$133
$420
n.a.
$2,395
$297
$108

$149
$189
$152
$122
$715
$137
$45

$68
$111
$100
$90
$575
$165
$36

$130
$168
$255
$99
$1,150
$260
$50

$284
$76
$311
n.a.
$2,021
$293
$120

$159
$60
$107
-$20
$624
$139
$0

$34
$72
$67
-$37
$37
$50
-$36

-$6
$139
$108
-$21
$158
$69
-$13

-0.4x
1.0x
-0.8x
n.a.
2.4x
0.1x
-1.3x

-0.5x
3.4x
-1.6x
0.7x
8.3x
-0.5x
n.m.

0.1x
2.6x
-1.1x
-3.0x
154.2x
0.9x
0.3x

-25.1x
1.5x
0.7x
n.m.
42.4x
3.4x
-4.4x

$2.00
$5.00
$4.00
$2.50
$1.00
$13.50
$1.50

163%
124%
39%
400%
108%
61%
-11%

SP
SO
SP
SO-S
SU
SO
SU

$2,973

$4,911

$69

$9,340

1.7x

3.7x

8.3x

4.5x

$3,644

$1,510

$1,145

$2,112

$3,106

$1,070

$186

$434

0.2x

1.6x

22.0x

3.1x

Risked

Group Total/Average

Development Capex ($MM)

(MM)

Core NAV
Bankers Petroleum Ltd.
Canacol Energy
Gran Tierra Energy
Oryx Petroleum
Pacific Exploration & Production
Parex Resources
TransGlobe Energy

EV/DACF 3.

Price

Group Total/Average

Company

CFPS 2

Symbol

Exploration NAV

6.

Reserves
EV/Boe 8.

Reserves

6.

Production

Reserve Life Index

Volumes (Boe/d)

Production
EV/Boe/d 9.

% Gas

126%

PPSG +

Operating

Cash Flow

Yield (%)

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Netbacks ($/Boe)

Symbol

P+P

P/NAV

RENAV

P/RENAV

Proven

P+P

Proven

P+P

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

14E/13A

15E/14E

16E/15E

17E/16E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

BNK
CNE
GTE
OXC
PRE
PXT
TGL

$1.61
$2.59
$1.67
$0.21
n.m.
$3.42
$1.76

47%
86%
172%
238%
n.m.
245%
104%

$1.61
$3.98
$1.81
$1.79
n.m.
$3.48
$1.76

47%
56%
159%
28%
n.m.
241%
104%

$0.82
$11.16
$10.47
$1.25
$19.71
$29.85
$0.11

$0.51
$7.19
$4.32
$0.47
$12.26
$17.76
$0.08

22.1
12.7
5.4
n.a.
5.2
4.8
4.4

28.4
19.8
12.6
n.a.
8.0
8.1
5.7

20,690
10,577
25,182
951
176,238
22,535
16,103

19,385
11,504
23,430
2,376
175,065
27,400
14,584

16,547
14,156
27,759
6,274
147,168
29,955
12,988

16,876
19,000
30,876
10,000
123,736
31,194
12,698

0%
30%
1%
0%
5%
0%
0%

0%
59%
1%
0%
7%
0%
0%

4,027
30,977
22,212
5,267
31,081
51,763
(2,464)

4,881
47,202
25,331
18,204
38,704
42,780
1,019

12,324
43,893
26,817
35,992
57,383
44,303
8,833

23,732
34,939
31,003
50,286
79,873
51,437
17,131

12%
30%
-14%
n.a.
18%
26%
-13%

-7%
-3%
-7%
133%
6%
10%
-8%

-14%
-1%
15%
164%
-13%
9%
-9%

2%
34%
11%
59%
-11%
4%
-2%

$45.07
$34.84
$49.66
$5.04
$53.18
$50.19
$35.33

$26.62
$26.77
$18.77
-$3.35
$24.79
$25.18
$7.96

$10.89
$23.80
$6.28
($3.49)
$11.12
$8.71
($0.65)

$5.97
$29.10
$10.82
$3.39
$16.62
$9.48
$3.61

$41.32
$10.57
$32.86
$5.02
$37.24
$33.73
$19.13

$21.84
$5.96
$12.58
-$21.66
$15.64
$15.66
-$1.33

$5.59
$12.22
$6.58
-$16.37
$8.38
$5.07
-$7.50

-$0.90
$19.82
$9.60
-$5.77
$10.71
$6.03
-$2.80

106%

$10.48

$6.08

9.1

13.8

5%

9%

20,409

25,446

32,792

41,200

10%

18%

21%

14%

$39.05

$18.10

$8.09

$11.28

$25.70

$6.95

$2.00

$5.24

149%

Notes:
1. Basic shares outstanding are based on most recent quarterly balance, adjusted for recent
acquisitions and financings; net bank debt is net of working capital.
2. Cash flow per diluted share.
3. Enterprise value over debt adjusted cash flow.

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

4. Includes regular and special dividends.

8. Enterprise value over reserves.
5. SO: Sector Outperformer; SP: Sector Performer; SU: Sector Underperformer; -S: Speculative.
9. Enterprise value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
6. PDP: Proved developed producing reserves; Proved: Proved reserves; P+P: Proved plus Probable reserves.
10. Enterprise value in $CAD per flowing barrel of oil equivalent production (based on 6 Mcf equalling 1 Bbl of oil).
7. CNAV = Core net asset value per share; RNAV = Risked net asset value per share; UNNAV = Unrisked net asset value per share.

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Exhibit 24. International E&Ps Comparables (continued)

25

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Analyst Certification: Each CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. research analyst named on the front page of this research
report, or at the beginning of any subsection hereof, hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions
expressed herein accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the company and securities that are the
subject of this report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research
analyst and (ii) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.
Analysts employed outside the U.S. are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be
associated persons of CIBC World Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. are
compensated from revenues generated by various CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. businesses, including the CIBC World
Markets Investment Banking Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from
specific investment banking transactions. CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst and
any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst
covers. Additionally, CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer,
director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers.
In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report,
CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the
securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.
Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures
set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc.:
Stock Prices as of 01/17/2016:
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (2g) (AAV-TSX, C$6.86, Sector Outperformer)
ARC Resources Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (ARX-TSX, C$15.45, Sector Outperformer)
Bankers Petroleum Ltd. (2g) (BNK-TSX, C$0.76, Sector Performer)
Baytex Energy Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (BTE-TSX, C$2.36, Sector Performer)
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g) (BXE-TSX, C$1.30, Sector Performer)
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (2g) (BIR-TSX, C$3.26, Sector Outperformer)
Black Diamond Group Limited (2g) (BDI-TSX, C$5.05, Sector Performer)
Bonavista Energy Corporation (2g) (BNP-TSX, C$1.13, Sector Outperformer)
Bonterra Energy Corp. (2g) (BNE-TSX, C$13.20, Sector Performer)
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g) (CFW-TSX, C$1.23, Sector Outperformer)
Canacol Energy Ltd. (2g) (CNE-TSX, C$2.23, Sector Outperformer)
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 9) (CNQ-TSX, C$24.44, Sector Outperformer)
Canadian Oil Sands Limited (2g, 7) (COS-TSX, C$7.48, Restricted)
Canyon Services Group Inc. (2g) (FRC-TSX, C$3.24, Sector Outperformer)
Cardinal Energy Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (CJ-TSX, C$6.46, Sector Outperformer)
Cenovus Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 9) (CVE-TSX, C$17.16, Sector Performer)
Cequence Energy Ltd. (2g) (CQE-TSX, C$0.26, Sector Underperformer)
Crescent Point Energy Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (CPG-TSX, C$13.28, Sector Outperformer)
Crew Energy Inc. (2g) (CR-TSX, C$3.36, Sector Outperformer)
Encana Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7, 9) (ECA-NYSE, US$3.69, Sector Performer)
Enerflex Ltd. (2g) (EFX-TSX, C$11.77, Sector Outperformer)
Enerplus Corporation (2g) (ERF-TSX, C$3.37, Sector Performer)

26

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc.: (Continued)
Stock Prices as of 01/17/2016:
Ensign Energy Services Inc. (2g, 3a) (ESI-TSX, C$6.47, Sector Performer)
Freehold Royalties Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (FRU-TSX, C$8.83, Sector Performer)
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (2g) (GTE-TSX, C$2.88, Sector Performer)
Granite Oil Corp. (2g, 7) (GXO-TSX, C$6.72, Sector Outperformer)
Husky Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (HSE-TSX, C$12.78, Sector Performer)
Imperial Oil Limited (2g) (IMO-TSX, C$41.68, Sector Outperformer)
Journey Energy Inc. (2g) (JOY-TSX, C$1.15, Sector Performer)
Kelt Exploration Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (KEL-TSX, C$3.39, Sector Performer)
Lightstream Resources Ltd. (2g) (LTS-TSX, C$0.23, Sector Underperformer)
Long Run Exploration Ltd. (2g) (LRE-TSX, C$0.31, Sector Performer)
Mullen Group Ltd. (2g) (MTL-TSX, C$14.10, Sector Performer)
Northern Blizzard Resources Inc. (2g) (NBZ-TSX, C$3.25, Sector Outperformer)
NuVista Energy Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (NVA-TSX, C$2.94, Sector Outperformer)
Oryx Petroleum Corp. (2g) (OXC-TSX, C$0.50, Sector Outperformer - Speculative)
Pacific Exploration & Production Corp. (2g) (PRE-TSX, C$0.48, Sector Underperformer)
Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd. (2g) (PPY-TSX, C$3.13, Sector Performer)
Paramount Resources Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g) (POU-TSX, C$4.14, Sector Performer)
Parex Resources Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PXT-TSX, C$8.40, Sector Outperformer)
Pason Systems Inc. (2g) (PSI-TSX, C$16.49, Sector Underperformer)
Pengrowth Energy Corporation (2g) (PGF-TSX, C$0.78, Sector Performer)
Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g) (PWT-TSX, C$0.86, Sector Underperformer)
Perpetual Energy Inc. (2g) (PMT-TSX, C$0.04, Sector Performer)
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PEY-TSX, C$26.61, Sector Outperformer)
Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. (2g) (PNE-V, C$0.85, Sector Performer)
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PSK-TSX, C$20.00, Sector Outperformer)
Precision Drilling Corporation (2g) (PD-TSX, C$4.26, Sector Outperformer)
Raging River Exploration Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (RRX-TSX, C$7.75, Sector Outperformer)
RMP Energy Inc. (2g) (RMP-TSX, C$1.26, Sector Performer)
Savanna Energy Services Corp. (2g) (SVY-TSX, C$1.05, Sector Outperformer)
SECURE Energy Services Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (SES-TSX, C$6.00, Sector Outperformer)
Seven Generations Energy Ltd. (2g) (VII-TSX, C$13.39, Sector Outperformer)
Sibanye Gold Ltd. (2g) (SGL-SA, R31.09, Sector Performer)
Spartan Energy Corp. (2g, 7) (SPE-TSX, C$2.11, Sector Outperformer)
Storm Resources Ltd. (2g) (SRX-V, C$3.37, Sector Performer)
Suncor Energy Inc. (2g, 7) (SU-TSX, C$31.22, Restricted)
Surge Energy Inc. (2g) (SGY-TSX, C$1.62, Sector Performer)
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (2g, 7) (TVE-TSX, C$2.27, Sector Performer)
TORC Oil & Gas Ltd. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (TOG-TSX, C$4.14, Sector Outperformer)
Total Energy Services Inc. (2g, 3a, 3c) (TOT-TSX, C$12.80, Sector Performer)
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (TOU-TSX, C$22.61, Sector Outperformer)
TransGlobe Energy Corp. (2g) (TGL-TSX, C$1.83, Sector Underperformer)
Trican Well Service Ltd. (2g) (TCW-TSX, C$0.45, Sector Performer)
Trilogy Energy Corp. (2g) (TET-TSX, C$2.41, Sector Performer)
Trinidad Drilling Ltd. (2g) (TDG-TSX, C$1.61, Sector Outperformer)
Twin Butte Energy Ltd. (2g) (TBE-TSX, C$0.08, Sector Performer)
Vermilion Energy Inc. (2g, 7) (VET-TSX, C$33.92, Sector Outperformer)

27

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc.: (Continued)
Stock Prices as of 01/17/2016:
Western Energy Services Corp. (2g) (WRG-TSX, C$2.94, Sector Outperformer)
Whitecap Resources Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (WCP-TSX, C$6.71, Sector Outperformer)

Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Not Covered by CIBC World Markets
Corp./Inc.:
Stock Prices as of 01/17/2016:
Petroamerica Oil Corp. (PTA-V, C$1.25, Not Rated)
Spyglass Resources Corp. (SGL-TSX, C$0.05, Not Rated)
Important disclosure footnotes that correspond to the footnotes in this table may be found in the "Key to
Important Disclosure Footnotes" section of this report.

28

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Key to Important Disclosure Footnotes:

1a
1b
1c
2a
2b
2c
2d
2e
2f
2g
3a
3b
3c
4a
4b
4c
5a
5b
6a
6b
7
8
9

10
11
12
13
14

CIBC WM Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company.

CIBC WM Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company.
CIBC WM Plc. makes a market in the securities of this company.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services
in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in
the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
securities-related services in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
non-securities-related services in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
The CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common
equity securities.
A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Corp. research analyst who covers this company has a
long position in the common equity securities of this company.
The CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its
common equity securities.
A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental research analyst who covers this
company has a long position in the common equity securities of this company.
CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1%
or more of a class of equity securities issued by this company.
An executive of CIBC World Markets Inc. or any analyst involved in the preparation of this research report has
provided services to this company for remuneration in the past 12 months.
An executive committee member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), the parent
company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an
officer, director or advisory board member of this company or one of its subsidiaries.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC
World Markets Corp., has a significant credit relationship with this company.
The equity securities of this company are restricted voting shares.
The equity securities of this company are subordinate voting shares.
The equity securities of this company are non-voting shares.
The equity securities of this company are limited voting shares.

29

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. Stock Rating System

Abbreviation

Rating

Description

SO

Sector Outperformer

Stock is expected to outperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.

SP

Sector Performer

Stock is expected to perform in line with the sector during the next 12-18 months.

SU

Sector Underperformer

Stock is expected to underperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.

NR

Not Rated

CIBC World Markets does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock.

Restricted

CIBC World Markets is restricted (due to potential conflict of interest) from rating the stock.

Stock Ratings

Sector Weightings (note: Broader market averages refer to S&P 500 in the U.S. and S&P/TSX Composite in Canada.)
O

Overweight

Sector is expected to outperform the broader market averages.

Market Weight

Sector is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages.

Underweight

Sector is expected to underperform the broader market averages.

NA

None

Sector rating is not applicable.

"Speculative" indicates that an investment in this security involves a high amount of risk due to volatility and/or liquidity issues.

Ratings Distribution*: CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. Coverage Universe

(as of 17 Jan 2016)

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

156

43.7%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

160

44.8%

32

9.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

2.2%

Restricted

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

Restricted

Inv. Banking Relationships

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

151

96.8%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

153

95.6%

27

84.4%

100.0%

*Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by CIBC World Markets
Corp./Inc.do not correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with FINRA rules, CIBC World
Markets Corp./Inc. has assigned buy ratings to securities rated Sector Outperformer, hold ratings to securities rated Sector
Performer, and sell ratings to securities rated Sector Underperformer without taking into consideration the analyst's sector weighting.
The distributions above reflect the combined historical ratings of CIBC World Markets Corp. and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - Dividend Corporations Coverage Universe

(as of 17 Jan 2016)
Sector Outperformer (Buy)

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships

Count

Percent

11

50.0%

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

11

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

40.9%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

9.1%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Oil & Gas - Dividend Corporations Sector includes the following tickers: ARX, BNE, BNP, BTE, CJ, CPG, ERF, FRU, GXO, JOY, LTS,
NBZ, PEY, PGF, PSK, PWT, SGY, TBE, TET, TOG, VET, WCP.

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - Intermediate & Junior Producers Coverage Universe
(as of 17 Jan 2016)
Sector Outperformer (Buy)

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships

38.9%

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

10

55.6%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

5.6%

Restricted

0.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

Count

Percent

100.0%

10

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Oil & Gas - Intermediate & Junior Producers Sector includes the following tickers: AAV, BIR, BXE, CQE, CR, KEL, LRE, NVA, PMT, PNE,
POU, PPY, RMP, RRX, SPE, SRX, TVE, VII.

30

CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - International E&P Coverage Universe

(as of 17 Jan 2016)

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

42.9%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

28.6%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

28.6%

Restricted

0.0%

Inv. Banking Relationships

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Oil & Gas - International E&P Sector includes the following tickers: BNK, CNE, GTE, OXC, PRE, PXT, TGL.

Ratings Distribution: Oil & Gas - Large Cap Coverage Universe

(as of 17 Jan 2016)

Count

Percent

Count

Percent

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

37.5%

Inv. Banking Relationships

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

37.5%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

0.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

0.0%

Restricted

25.0%

Restricted

100.0%

Count

Percent

Oil & Gas - Large Cap Sector includes the following tickers: CNQ, COS, CVE, ECA, HSE, IMO, SU, TOU.

Ratings Distribution: Oilfield Services & Equipment Coverage Universe

(as of 17 Jan 2016)

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

57.1%

Sector Outperformer (Buy)

100.0%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

35.7%

Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral)

100.0%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

7.1%

Sector Underperformer (Sell)

100.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Restricted

0.0%

Oilfield Services & Equipment Sector includes the following tickers: BDI, CFW, EFX, ESI, FRC, MTL, PD, PSI, SES, SVY, TCW, TDG,
TOT, WRG.

Important disclosures required by applicable rules can be obtained by visiting CIBC World Markets on the web at
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Disclosures Request.

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CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. Price Chart

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(212-856-4000) or CIBC world Markets Inc., 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, ON M5H 2S8, Attn: Research Disclosure
Chart Request.

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CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Legal Disclaimer
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CIBC Oil & Gas Weekly - January 18, 2016

Legal Disclaimer (Continued)

without notice.
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