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Manchester February 2016 Development Update
Manchester February 2016 Development Update
2016 Development
Update
Ed Howe
___________
Completed Projects
(Projects which have completed construction since November 2015)
- Chapel St / Caxton St, Salford | 9 Apartments | 6fl, 1m
- TRANSPORT | Airport Station Fourth Platform, 23m
- Corn Exchange Redevelopment | Food & Retail, 30m
- Printworks facade redevelopment
- Salford University; Peel Park Campus | 5fl x 5 / 9fl x 7 / 7fl x 1 blocks, 81m
- NOMA | Public Realm Landscaping around Century House (Sadlers Yard)
- Caxton Hall | Chapel St | Conversion to 12 apartments, 1m
- Jactin House, Ancoats | Conversion + New build offices | 38,000sqft, 2m
- METROLINK | Second City Crossing; Victoria to Exchange Square, 11m
- Lowry Theatre | New Entrance & Waterside Restaurant | 3m
- Leigh>Salford>Central Manchester Guided Busway, 68m
- King St Townhouse, Booth Street, Spring Gardens | 40 rooms. 2m
- Exchange Quay redevelopment | New public realm, recladding, 10m
- Hope Mill | New Theatre | Pollard St, New Islington
Crane Count
Salford
- One Greengate (1 crane)
- Wilburn Basin (3 cranes)
- City Suites (1 crane)
- 101 Embankment (1 crane)
Salford Quays
- Plot E2 (1 crane)
- X1 Exchange (1 crane)
Piccadilly
- Kennedy Building Ancoats (1
crane)
- Holiday Inn (2 cranes)
East
- X1 Eastbank (1 crane)
Victoria/North Central
- Bollin House (1 crane)
- Cotton Building Spinningfields (2
cranes)
- Angelgate (1 crane)
Peter's Fields/South Central
- Cambridge St (1 crane)
- 1 Water St (2 cranes)
- 2 St Peters Square (2 cranes)
- 1 Spinningfields (3 cranes)
TOTAL: 24
Statistics
The number of completed projects (on which construction has stopped, including
internal works, and the building or structure is occupied/open) has increased from
4 in November 2015 to 14 now.
- The number of projects under construction (on which construction activity has begun, in the form of diggers, of drills or of cranes etc) has decreased again by -4, from
74 to 70. This is the 4th consecutive fall in construction activity, however the falls
have been small - overall activity has decreased from 77 projects U/C in May 2015
to 70 now. Hopefully with all the new planning applications we're seeing come
online we'll see a spike in activity soon.
- The number of projects which are 'Shovel Ready' (on which construction has a
high chance of beginning by the next Update in three months time) has increased:
from 23 in November to 26 now.
- The number of projects which have been approved has raced upwards after waves
and waves of planning meetings in both Manchester & Salford. It now stands at 50,
up from 36 in November.
- Projects holding a planning application which hasn't yet been approved stands at
47, down from 60 in November. This is due to a large number of approvals.
- The number of "Red" projects (those which are masterplans or visions without a
planning application, not including framework applications) has increased from 33
to 42 now. This is mainly due to a wave of new proposals around MediaCityUK and
Owen St.
The graph below shows how U/C, planning applications and others have changed
over time. Notice how we're beginning to get "planning app inflation". Lots of planning applications are going in but the construction industry lags behind still. This
can indicate a number of things: 1) there's a lack of construction resources stopping
projects from rising out of the ground. This is a known problem in the UK at the
moment... 2) there's still a post-recession hangover of low confidence in developers
to deliver schemes....3) we may see an enormous spike in construction activity over
the next year.
It's been a very exciting 3 months yet again. However this 3 months has differentiated itself from the other quarters of this recovery/post-recession period by being what we can
define as an era of tall buildings. Skyscraper proposals defined Manchester pre-recession,
we can only hope that they get built this time round.
Renaker have now made the bold move of proposing what will be Manchester's tallest
building if built. Number 1 Owen St will reach 200.5m into the sky, the first regional UK
skyscraper to stretch above 200m (even if it is a shy peek above 200m at best!) There will
also be several 130m+ buildings surrounding it. We also found out that the Great Northern Warehouse will be redeveloped with a Will Alsop-designed skyscraper sitting alongside it.
At MediaCity, we've seen visuals of "Phase 2" which will be mainly apartment-based, incorporating over 600 new homes in total. Nearby, TH Real Estate lodged plans for up to
800 apartments at Waterfront Quay as part of their Pier 7 scheme. Recently Select Properties and Ask released plans for Embankment West; 694 apartments in buildings up to 32
stories high.
We also saw plans released for Urban & Civic's Princess/Whitworth Corner which
gained a planning application this quarter, alongside the 31-storey Oxygen Tower which
will provide 343 apartments behind Piccadilly.
It's been a bumper month for office space, with nearly 600,000sqft of office space being
approved by Manchester City Council over Lincoln House and 2 & 3 Angel Square, while
the City also approved the University's redevelopment of the Owen's Park campus.
Adelphi Wharf, phase 1 of Bruntwood's "Circle Square" project on the old BBC site off
Oxford Rd and the Ordsall Chord have all started construction this quarter, however
overall construction activity decreased yet again. There needs to be a real push to get
schemes which have planning approval starting construction as there's clearly a block in
the system at the moment, whatever it may be.
Apartments
- There are currently 1,901 apartments U/C in the City Centre
- There are currently 1,592 apartments U/C in Central Salford
- There are currently 885 apartments U/C in Salford Quays
- There are currently 146 apartments U/C in Hulme
TOTAL U/C: 4,095
- There are currently 6,127 apartments with Planning Applications OR U/C in the City
Centre
- There are currently 6,245 apartments with Planning Applications OR U/C in Central
Salford
- There are currently 3,064 apartments with Planning Applications OR U/C in Salford
Quays
- There are currently 983 apartments with Planning Applications OR U/C in Hulme
TOTAL: 19,614
The graph on the next page shows number of apartments U/C or holding planning apps
over time.
Although the City Zone currently has the most U/C, there are more apartments holding
planning apps in Central Salford which indicates that the focus for apartment construction in the future will be here. There's been a spike in apartments holding planning applications in Salford Quays in the past few months as a result of Pier 7 at Waterfront Quay,
which will provide up to 800 apartments here. As Central Manchester and Central Salford heat up, Salford Quays too is beginning to warm, although still lags behind its
neighbours in terms of apartments U/C. This will change in the near future with X1's
enormous new scheme at MediaCityUK which will provide over 1,000 new apartments
(phase 1 is now U/C). However Salford Quays is unlikely to catch up with the city centre/Salford Central in the foreseeable future as they each have over 4,000 apartments in
planning.
Offices
- There is currently 1,085,000sqft of office space U/C in Central Salford and Central Manchester
- There is currently 60,000sqft of office space U/C at Salford Quays
- 1,260,200sqft of office space is currently holding a planning application in Central Salford and Central Manchester
- 145,000sqft of office space is currently holding a planning application in Salford Quays
TOTAL PIPELNE: 2,520,200sqft
The map on the next page shows all apartments - those U/C, those approved, those holding planning applications AND those not holding planning applications (IF number of
apartments is specified, with some schemes it simply states that "over 3,000 apartments
will be provided", these vague schemes are simply not counted.
As with U/C, Central Salford and Greengate are still booming into the forseeable future.
Many apartments in Central Salford will be provided by Middlewood Locks and Adelphi
Wharf as well as smaller schemes, whilst in Greengate promises of 1,190 apartments
along Trinity Way, Norton Court as well as rumours of a Renaker "One Greengate" pro-
ject (to be revealed on Thursday) mean Greengate will remain a hive for apartment activity into the future.
The difference between the U/C and pipeline maps pops up in Castlefield/Peterloo. A
low amount of construction is evident here at the moment, however into the future this
area is promised a lot of major projects including Allied London's Trinity Fields, providing 3,000 apartments in several utopian skyscrapers around the river and Trinity Way, St
John's at the old Granada site and Renaker at Owen St. This area will be home to all of
Manchester's tallest buildings and is an area to watch into the future.
Similarly Ordsall, which currently has 0 apartments U/C has 774 proposed for it. This
area, sandwiched between Salford Quays, the city centre, Central Salford, Middlewood
Locks, Cornbrook and Hulme has immense potential and, coupled with cheap property
prices, will be another area to watch in the coming years.
In order to correctly assess which areas have potential into the future it's important to
study property prices.
The map overleaf details how Spinningfields and Castlefield/Peterloo are by far the city's
most expensive property hotspots - each averaging over 1m according to Zoopla's ZED
index. Piccadilly too will soon top 200,000 average prices, meaning the "traditional" city
centre will all see prices of over 0.2 million.
Developers are currently concentrating on Central Salford and Greengate due to its
astoundingly low property prices. However, as Greengate (which had a similar price to
the rest of Salford just 2 years ago) has shown, this won't last for long.
Finally, the below map is almost an invert of the previous (average property prices) map.
This one shows property price increases in the year to Jan 30, 2016.
Central Salford and Ordsall, which have the lowest property prices of the entire city, are
the areas which are becoming more expensive the fastest - with 7.6% increases across the
M3 postcode in the previous 12 months. This is another reason that Ordsall is one to
watch - an area which has low property prices, an unbeatable location, gigantic yields
and very little proposals for apartments unlike her neighbours.
Finally, the map on the next page is almost an invert of the previous (average property
prices) map. This one shows property price increases in the year to Jan 30, 2016.
Central Salford and Ordsall, which have the lowest property prices of the entire city, are
the areas which are becoming more expensive the fastest - with 7.6% increases across the
M3 postcode in the previous 12 months. This is another reason that Ordsall is one to
watch - an area which has low property prices, an unbeatable location, gigantic yields
and very little proposals for apartments unlike her neighbours.
The average price for a property across all Central Manchester districts at the end of January 2016 was 346,270.
- Excluding the enormous skewing effect that M2 (Spinningfields & Castlefield) have, this
comes to 156,728.
- The average increase in property price across all CentManc districts comes to 5.8%
- Projecting into the future this means that the average price for a property in January
2017 will be 165,818 with currently cheap districts such as Central Salford and Ordsall
catching up to the rest.
Tall Buildings
I don't think Manchester needs any introduction on tall proposals after the quarter we've
had. An astounding number of new proposals for 100m+ buildings arguably takes us up
to the total we had pre-recession. Here they all are, listed categorically in terms of height.
Firstly, here are the current tallest buildings:
1) Beetham (169m)
2) CIS (118m)
3) City Tower (107m)
4) New Wakefield St (106m)
Next, here are the tallest buildings after all the projects which are currently U/C or at
shovel ready have completed (if you want, the "Near Future" talls):
1) Beetham (169m)
2) CIS (118m)
3) City Tower (107m)
4) New Wakefield St (106m)
5) Angel Gardens (106m)
6) No. 1 Spinningfields (92m)
7) Arndale Tower (90m)
8) One Greengate (88m)
Next, here are Manchester's talls after all the proposals and U/C projects have completed. 2022 perhaps? Or "Far Future"
1) Great Jackson 1 (201.5m)
2) Beetham (169m)
3) St Johns Place (165m)
4) Great Jackson 2 (158m)
5) Trinity Fields 1 (152m)
6) Great Jackson 3 (141m)
7) St Johns Tower 2 (132m)
8) River St Tower (125m)
9) Great Jackson 4 (122m)
10) CIS (118m)
11) 10-12 Whitworth St (117m)
12) Norton Court (110.3m)
13) St Johns Tower 3 (109m)
14) City Tower (107m)
15) New Wakefield St (106m)
16) Angel Gardens (106m)
29) St Johns Tower 4 (83m)